Throwing Pennies at the Bridges Down Below

by Lowetide

Photo by Mark Williams

There’s a feeling I get at this time of year that goes back to childhood. Every September in my memory rolled out the same. The days grew shorter, we had to do the chores as soon as the bus dropped us off. In Saskatchewan 1973, 3:30 pm meant you were burning daylight on any outside activity. Once school started, sticks and pucks ruled the day every evening in our long driveway 17 miles north of Maidstone, Saskatchewan. Dad had an outside light that lit up the darkness and provided my brother and me the canvas for NHL dreams. Those dreams would one day be dashed by feet of clay, replaced by the discovery of women, demon liquor and carburetors.

No matter. The dream carried both of us to a better day.

The feeling remains. The anticipation of another hockey season is here. Can you see your breath when you go outside in the morning? Do you see the leaves falling on your walks in the river valley? On one of my walks last week I noticed the lights were on at the outdoor rink just down the way. Soon when I walk by, I’ll be able to hear the sound of skates cutting ice, pucks meeting sticks, the joy of youth in the voices engaged in plays realized or denied.

The heart of a nation is in those sights and sounds, it’s in the 5am drives to practice for your kids, it’s in the memories of Mahovlich and Keon and Orr and Gretzky.

People often say they dislike fall, I can’t imagine why. I’d love fall even if all I had was the joy of wearing warm sweaters and the changing colours of the river valley. Yet I have so much more. I have, you have, the game of hockey. We start anew, the excitement builds, and the best part of all is that you don’t need to explain it to anyone.

Hockey season is coming. It is a beautiful time of year.

THE ATHLETIC!

OILERS OPENING NIGHT ROSTER (CURRENTLY)

This is my vision of what the roster will look like for Game 1 2023-24. Jay Woodcroft will need to decide whether or not to dress Raphael Lavoie over Vincent Desharnais. Injuries can occur and I do believe Lavoie could get traded before opening night. That said, for me it’s an easy decision to keep him if he does any good at all in preseason.

You know, last year Lavoie didn’t play even one minute in preseason. In fact, he has played only 13:42 preseason total with Edmonton. One shot on goal, he played on a successful line with James Hamblin and Adam Cracknell.

I understand Lavoie isn’t an ideal fourth-line option, but he’s right handed and a first-shot scorer. You can’t ignore that fact. Lavoie’s presence on the roster means the top three lines have insurance on the wing every night. Lavoie’s outscoring totals at even strength in Bakersfield improved over his time there.

I also want to talk about Vincent Desharnais. In each of the models I’ve presented this spring and summer, he is the No. 7 blue. That’s presumptuous of me, especially considering the fact I have a fondness for the skill set (filthy, filthy suppression) he brings. We don’t know what we don’t know. One of these men spent the offseason running up the side of a mountain, another ate a mountain of pancakes (no they didn’t, that doesn’t happen in modern times). Let’s see how this plays out, shall we?

CONDORS OPENING NIGHT ROSTER (CURRENTLY)

There’s a rumour the Oilers will add one more contract, I’d love to see Nolan Patrick or Ethan Bear signed. Patrick may not be healthy enough to play and Bear is also coming back from injury. Beyond that, Max Comtois gets mentioned often. He is a little shy as a top-nine scorer and his numbers last year were poor on an awful team, but his rel numbers were solid. I think he would be a good addition for the Oilers but am uncertain where he fits. Signing Comtois and trading Lavoie might be the play.

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John Chambers

One name you didn’t mention is Jack Campbell.

There’s a not-insignificant chance that Campbell becomes a horribly overpaid backup, and that $5M would need to be moved.

The Oilers could take back an LTIR contract in return, for-instance that of Ryan Ellis, while freeing up cap space to pursue a RH defenseman or #1 goalie. I also bet that Carter Hart gets traded and can see the tetris pieces lining up.

OriginalPouzar

Adding an LTIR contract would not give the Oilers any additional cap space.

OriginalPouzar

That scenario would remove Campbell’s cap hit of $5MM but then add Ellis’ $6.25MM cap hit and it would mean the Oilers are in LTIR for the next 4 seasons, essentially.

Ryan

I know by now that you prefer a clean disposition of a bad contract. I also know that LTIR and not being able to accrue cap space bothers you. 🙂 To be sure, it is a significant hindrance.

I’ve rattled on too much about Campbell, so I’ll shift the topic to a different team.

Let’s say you’re the GM of HH’s favorite team, the Dallas Stars.

You’ve got Tyler Seguin on the books for 4 x $9.8 m.

Let’s say the Flyers were willing to trade you the Ryan Ellis contract for Tyler Seguin.

Would you do it?

Would you rather 4 years of a negative value contract (though a serviceable player) and presumably a team not in LTIR or the chance to free up $10 m in usable cap space by sending Tyler Seguin to Philly while also getting stuck in LTIR? Obviously this would make more sense as a hypothetical at the beginning of free agency where you could spend that $9.8m.

Dom’s model has Seguin at -$6.3m in surplus value per year over the remainder of his contract.

OriginalPouzar

That is not an equitable scenario – Trading Campbell for Ellis adds cap hit to the Oilers and my main point in responding was to bring up the fact that it would not help the Oilers cap situation this season.

As an aside, I don’t think its just me that LTIR “bothers”, I think the management of the team feels similar.

innercitysmytty

No chance I’d do that as Philly but you do that all day as Dallas. I know you’re using an extreme example to illustrate a point here but that would take a lot of assets on Dallas’ part to make that work.

Harpers Hair

You called?

There is not a chance Dallas would do this.

Through adept cap management and fantastic drafting they are effectively cap compliant with a 23 man roster.

They’ve been able to absorb the Benn (2 years @ $9.5M 78 points last season) and Seguin contracts without skipping a beat.

With the addition of Matt Duchene they have a third line that will make grown men cry.

Collectively Marchment-Duchene-Seguin scored 55 goals and 137 points last season.

This with Marchment having a down year and Seguin recovering from serious injuries never mind Duchene being one season away from a 43 goal 86 point season.

While Dom has Seguin at negative value, it doesn’t matter all that much and chances are that, now healthy and playing with superior players, could very well come close to a PPG player again as Benn has done.

OriginalPouzar

Nuge on the NHL Network’s Top 50 List:

https://twitter.com/NHLNetwork/status/1700995472125817135

innercitysmytty

Can’t figure out why HH didn’t post that.

Harpers Hair

AWOL in the playoffs.

teamblue

11 points in 12 games is AWOL?

Harpers Hair

2 EVP -6

He was awful.

godot10

There are FOUR LInes.

Kane McDavid Hyman
Holloway Draisaitl Brown
Foegele McLeod Ryan
Janmark Nugent-Hopkins Lavoie.

Take the bubble wrap off Broberg. What the eff are they waiting for? Figure out if there is a problem at RD or if one has the solution in house. You can’t answer the question by slow playing Broberg any longer, or he won’t get enough reps by the trade deadline.

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Broberg
Kulak Desharnais/Ceci

McSorley33

I like your forward group – a lot.

Your D group features some Barack Obama – ‘Hopes and Dreams’ speech.

Unable to unseat 3rd pair Dman last year( Desharnais ) amazing people have Bro leapfrogging all the way to the 2nd pairing.

Like Holloway last year- much different competition at these lofty levels.

godot10

Barrett Jackman started out with Chris Pronger as a rookie out of junior hockey.

Broberg is draft + 5. Nurse is paid big money to do this.

jp

He didn’t though.

Pronger only played 5 games that year. Jackman had played a full AHL season the year before. And FWIW, the Blues got knocked out in the 1st round (with healthy Pronger).

OriginalPouzar

Yes, Ryan Nugent Hopkins did rely on the powerplay to produce 104 points but, at the same time, he was a prolific 5 on 5 producer last season.

He was 52nd among forwards in 5 on 5 points last season tied with the likes of Eichel, Gaudrea, Scheifele and Fiala.

He produced as a mid tier 1st line player – playing him for 8 minutes at 5 on 5 with Mattias Janmark and a 23 year old rookie with zero NHL games, well, I don’t think any coach in the NHL would think that’s a good idea.

Absolutely agree with Broberg getting the push and, if they are going to deploy him in the top 4, it seems obvious that Ekholm is the perfect partner for him even if Nurse/Bouchard haven’t already had a history of success together.

godot10

What about “There are FOUR lines” do you not understand. Play four lines, so everybody is banged up by April.

innercitysmytty

While I agree the coach should play the bottom 6 more at EV over the course of the season, you are not going to find a coach that plays all 4 lines equally. It just never happens. So with this alignment Nuge is getting 8-10 mins of EV a night at best.

innercitysmytty

Nuge on the 4th line lol. I agree with giving Holloway some reps in the top 6, but no chance that would push Nuge to the 4th line with Ryan on the 3rd line.

Mayan Oil

One thing I see discussed a lot is using accrued cap space at the deadline to acquire another player or to upgrade. I see another opportunity to fill internally… if we are running a 21 man roster until then, the space can be used to expand to 22 men by calling someone up from the farm. Then we can run 22 until the end of season and expand to 23 during the playoffs when cap is ot an issue. Barring any major reshuffling, I think this is the prudent choice.

Mayan Oil

That player recalled could be either a prospect, or a current PTO player stashed in the AHL on a league minimum contract.

OriginalPouzar

I think most are hoping for an in-season acquisition of a more material player than someone who as been in the AHL.

I mean, I think most would be more exited with Brett Pesce than Phil Kemp, right?

jp

You don’t want to add a rental at the deadline?

Mayan Oil

I would rather get reps for a prospect that deserves it in the NHL. The level of rental we would get using our current expected cap space would likely not be any kind of impact. We are talking a sub 2 m player at most, maybe less.

jp

Fair enough. I will disagree that there won’t be $2M players available at the deadline worth adding, and of course a 2nd team retaining has become very common in the last few years.

Mayan Oil

All at a cost, and we are short on capital for meaningful add-ins I would think.

Mayan Oil

I think the projected cap space would limit us more accurately to adding no more than a approx a 800 or 900K cap difference at the deadline. Unless a bigger deal is in mind a la Ceci/Kulak/etc.

jp

There will be a cost, for sure. The Oilers still have most of their picks over the next few years though. There is capital to add at the deadline, and I expect they will (like every contending team does).

teamblue

They can acquire a player at almost $4.9 mil if the other team eats half the hit. The right player at $4.5 mil is much better than an AHL call-up, cost included.

Mayan Oil

Here’s an oddball thought from the bottom of my shallow brain… ca you trade a player for a future option on a player, or – trade opayer A for one of player B,C or D to be exercised by the trade deadline? If so, what about player A for one of player A, B or C exercisable at the deadline…

Imagine trading someone who is in tight but needs reps to a team in day to day need and getting them back at the deadline? Like one of Broberg or Desharnais… Vinnie/Bro +7th to Phoenix for a player from a predetermined list, to be exercised by trade deadline and said list includes Bro/Vinnie…

Or have I had too much caffeine his morning?

Mayan Oil

Basically trading a player for a player TBD , which happens to be himself. Gets them the reps they need when there is a fight for room on the big club without sending to minors…

Mayan Oil

Target a team with a short term need such as injury, without an NHL ready prospect to elevate? Especially if they are a likely non playoff team who have greater desire for the draft pick included to pay them for helping develop our guy, as it were…

OriginalPouzar

Oilers Access
@oilersaccess
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2h

Young Stars Classic Schedule (All Times in MT):

Sept. 15 – WPG vs EDM (5:00 P.M.)
Sept. 16 – CGY vs EDM (8:30 P.M)
Sept. 18 – VAN vs EDM (3:30 P.M)

Rosters will be announced later this week.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not positive that lineup is legal for AHL games where teams can dress a max of 5 vets (320 NHL/AHL/Euro Pro games) plus 1 player between 261-320 such games.

On a quick look, I think that lineup might be 6 plus 1 (with Pederson being that one in the 261-320) but I haven’t crunched.

Optimism is like heroin

Not sure why vets getting benched in the ahl is a concern. They will rotate in I am sure and be ready for a recall.

OriginalPouzar

I also want to talk about Vincent Desharnais. In each of the models I’ve presented this spring and summer, he is the No. 7 blue. That’s presumptuous of me, especially considering the fact I have a fondness for the skill set (filthy, filthy suppression) he brings. We don’t know what we don’t know. One of these men spent the offseason running up the side of a mountain, another ate a mountain of pancakes (no they didn’t, that doesn’t happen in modern times). Let’s see how this plays out, shall we?

I absolutely agree with this. Of course, I’ve been very clear (and loud) in my opinion that Borberg needs to play over Vinny, every night, in a 6D set-up. Its not a knock on Vinny, its more a projection of what Broberg can bring, right now, and what he may be able to bring, in short order, if given the reps.

I think Vinny is a great 7D to have to insert in the the lineup when injury occurs (and, I guess, the odd 7D night).

With all that said, as I’ve mentioned, the last time the Oilers played a game, the coaching staff favored Vinny over Broberg and that is not something that should be discounted.

At the same time, the beginning of the regular season is different than the playoff drive and the playoffs and, at this point, the PK isn’t a huge issue (it could be but we’ll see) requiring Vinny’s insertion in the lineup.

Not to mention, the likes of Stauffer are projecting Broberg getting a push and up the lineup with Ekholm – as many of us on here have discussed for months – I’m highly confidant that Bob reads the comments.

OriginalPouzar

I agree with what the opening roster should look like and even the lines (mostly – I’d split Kane and Hyman).

I think it’s fairly obvious that the ideal path is for Lavoie to just grab at 12F spot – add some size, jam and skill to the bottom six and a player with upside.

At the same time, I’m not sure the org thinks that is ideal and may hope one of the end of career players grabs that spot. I think the org believes that veterans are better to fill out that lineup over graduating prospects – for a cup run.

I don’t necessarily agree.

McSorley33

Just getting back into the swing of things here…..

With the 2nd pick in the second round in 2016 the Edmonton Oilers selected Tyler Benson.

At the age of 25, there was no NHL interest in this player and he has signed a 1 year deal with an AHL team. ( Henderson)

Coupled with the franchise altering Reinhart deal – these 2 transactions – for me -altered the course of the franchise.

Leon Draisaitl turns 28 next month.

This year I don’t believe there is a question about the regular season.

Connor Brown for Kailer Yamamoto is the move. That’s it.

We wait.

defmn

With the 2nd pick in the second round in 2016 the Edmonton Oilers selected Tyler Benson.
Coupled with the franchise altering Reinhart deal – these 2 transactions – for me -altered the course of the franchise.
================

With the first overall pick in the 2015 draft the Edmonton Oilers selected Connor McDavid,
Coupled with the franchise choosing Leon Draisaitl 3rd overall in the 2014 draft these 2 picks – for me – altered the course of the franchise.

It’s strange how we view the past and the choices made.

slopitch

Id argue the entire 2016 draft was franchise altering. The oilers thought Puljuarvi would replace Hall. They were wrong. Id put the Benson pick far down the list of reasons why Connor hasnt won a cup yet though. The Reinhart trade is likely #1 although hiring Chiarelli could be it too.

Scungilli Slushy

Ken is a slow boat for sure. His son says he worries about screwing up a bigger deal so avoids them

I agree with you. Those bad decisions have reduced what the talent pool could have been. Either on the roster or used to acquire what was needed. I break it down into pre and post Connor. Mistakes pre Connor brought him so I don’t worry about them. Mistakes after are burning daylight and diminishing his legacy

Not using every way an available to improve quicker is weak sauce. It’s been shown here time and again the Cup winning teams are more aggressive in every way than the Oilers are

Some mention how good they are now. Yes, but they could be better and have a Cup. When you have two of the worlds best players in prime you should be good. It’s the rest management struggles with as I see it

Of the three top 6 improvements one was a free agent and paid in full plus, and two are off the damaged goods rack (I like the players, it’s a comment about the effort level of level and creativity of management), and it still took years to get there

The cap is only an issue for some GMs. I am not comfortable that Holland takes so long to address issues such as having 2 top 6 wingers that weren’t working outside of one stretch for Yama, and a top 4 pair that doesn’t work, again outside of one stretch of games. What are they looking at to think these things were ok when you have a generational captain?

jp

Throwing Pennies at the Bridges Down Below

Are you describing the Western conference here? 😉

buck yoakam

this reminds me of another van tune “it stoned me” that takes you back to your childhood riding the gravel roads looking for a fishing hole…talk about imagery that is reminiscent of our youth…I recall pleasantview (and most outdoor neighbourhood rinks) always had two running…one for pickup hockey and one for skating two by two with your gal while chewing grape gum that came in a roll…ha!…thanks LT!

jp

I didn’t know the reference and was trying to be cute about the Oilers toying with the opposition. The original definitely doesn’t match the mood I was going for.

I do feel like the Oilers are likely to have an Avalanche 21-22 season though (and hopefully playoff as well).

Harpers Hair
defmn

Boston seems high; Columbus looks low.

Harpers Hair

Yeah…I think so too.

Columbus has really shored up their D and Adam Fantilli is expected to make an impact right out if the box.

Boston is tough to call since they still have some great players and excellent goaltending but losing their top two centres has to hurt.

jtblack

Why would we trade Lavioe?

meanashell11

How a big, first shot scorer who can skate is not a long term fit just mystifies me. The only reason you trade him is as part of a package for a serious upgrade on the wing or right D. For example, if Ceci and Raff get you Pesce with some retention, you probably do that. Otherwise you need affordable young talent so you keep him.

cowboy bill

Is that you talking, or do you have some inside info?

Reja

Cold shoulder = trade.

€√¥£€^$

Perhaps, but this isn’t a Samorukov situation either. Where Sammy was not gaining any traction and was well-behind Broberg & Niemo on the depth chart.

In Lavoie’s case, he is just starting to reveal what he could become. It would be very strange, IMO, if he isn’t given opportunity upon opportunity this Fall. In fact he deck has been cleared for him on RW, if that is where the see him lining up.

If he is viewed as a LW, then that is a much different story, however.

€√¥£€^$

Players who come to mind who I could see a trade with would be Liam Foudy, who needs a fresh start or Phillip Tomasino, who LT has identified as a potential target of interest.

It would be interesting to identify players that would fit in the bottom six now and who have potential upside in the future.

Reja

Nah he’s going home either to the Habs or the Sens via waivers but more likely in a trade for a Centre.

godot10

They have been looking for a one shot scorer for as long as I can remember. The Oilers have too many forwards who want to pass the puck into the net or who can only score from the blue paint.

Scungilli Slushy

It would be a Because Oilers thing to do. He’s cleaned his game up at the pro level. He’s a big first shot scorer that as far as I know can skate well enough. He out scores in the A

I think many good teams would be making him a roster spot and adding back up depth as opposed to signing ‘vets’ and possibly risking waivers which I fear is lining up. Maybe Because Oiler left over paranoia

How well is Gagner going to play with no NHL quality centre? Sutter has to me a 10% chance of making the team and 2% of being actually helpful. Not to mention he couldn’t stay healthy 3 years ago

Bank Shot

Who is the prospect in the last 20 years that the Oilers gave up on early that blossomed somewhere else?

Dubnyk maybe, but he was 27 and already established as a good NHL option.

Reja

When they drafted Lavoie I was pumped he looked like a Eric Cole type when viewing his Junior hi-lite reel package. I love these types of players and they don’t come around very often. Lavoie’s a mystery why no call-up last spring when he figured it out and was playing really good hockey. Where’s the reward financially and professionally. Something is rotten in the State of Denmark

OriginalPouzar

All this talk about many about the organization failing if Lavoie is not on the opening night roster.

How about he comes out and has a good camp and earns that last roster spot. Its there for the taking and, if he’s the best player at camp, the organization will keep him on the roster.

I would suggest that, if he’s cut (be it waived or traded due to not making the team), its likely on the player and not the org.

There is nothing fishy here, the player himself did not put himself in the conversation for the NHL for the first 2.5 years of his ELC. He didn’t gain the the requisite traction in the AHL until the NHL team was over 2/3 done its season and gearing up for the playoffs.

He has a clear opportunity to win a roster spot – its up to him.

Reja

If Lavoie has a good camp and still doesn’t make the team and goes on the waiver wire no way he clears by 31 GM’s. A 22 year-old who has yet to be test driven and is 6’4” 200 pound plus 1 shot scorer isn’t clearing. Life isn’t always fair maybe Lavoie had a few too many cocktails at the Christmas party. I’ll bet dollars for doughnuts Lavoie is not a Oiler by the trade deadline at the very latest.

OriginalPouzar

If Lavoie doesn’t make the team, he isn’t an emerging power forward that hasn’t been test driven, he’s a 23 year old, former 2nd round pick, coming off a very good 3 months in the AHL, where he finished 90th in league scoring, that has zero NHL games and was cut from the NHL team, again, in favor of an end of career player on a tryout or an 25 year old tweener.

He might get claimed but he reasonably likely slides right through.

defmn

Getting attached to players because they developed in your system is not something that I want a GM to base decisions on.

If there is a better fit or better player to be had in a transaction that is a move I expect Holland to make.

godot10

Lavoie has a skill set that the Oilers have lacked essentially for as long as I can remember. And they couldn’t afford to pay Kostin.

Lavoie is a perfect fit for this roster. Did he throw a water bottle at Woodcroft or something? There has to be a story of why the Oiler insiders want to run him out of town.

defmn

I agree he has strengths that the Oilers could definitely use. I haven’t seen enough (hardly any) of him to know what might be missing but there has definitely been a lack of excitement about this player from those who should know or are in a decision making role.

The fact that there are few trading chips other than draft picks and a spot to fill at 4C – yeah, I know, you would put RNH there but that just isn’t happening – makes me think he is trade material.

Scungilli Slushy

Me too but he’s not good at meaningful trades

He got Ek but paid too much for a D that age. As he does. He makes excuses but it’s his job to get appropriate value. Ek has term but no Cup came. So the overpay is just that

defmn

How much something costs is always a calculation based upon scarcity & need.

Top four dmen were scarce & the need was great. How the need became great can be laid at Holland’s feet because he made decisions on Broberg and Kulak that didn’t work out but once the TD was there with no alternative you just hold your nose and pay or do without.

Harpers Hair

A compound fracture beginning with massively overpaying Nurse which despite the excuses was a self inflicted wound.

OriginalPouzar

Why would we trade Lavioe?

If he doesn’t make the team (that is, he can’t beat out Gagner, Sutter and Pederson for a roster spot), well, there isn’t much there and if they can find Samorukov/Kostin type trade (maybe after clearinig waivers just like that one), it makes sense.

I presume there is no current intention to trade him and the “plan” is for him to win that 12F spot but, if he can’t beat out each of:

1) a 34 year old Sam Gagner coming off double hip surgery and still rehabbing;

2) a 34 year old Brandon Sutter who hasn’t played in over 2 years due to health issues and was barely hanging on to an NHL career before those health issues

3) Lane Pederson, a tweener at best,

well, what is Ralph Lavoie at that point? A 23 year old, former second round pick, that had a good, not great, AHL season, with zero NHL games, once again cut from a team with a clear roster spot available (in favor of an end of career player or tweener).

godot10

Woodcroft keep sending out an injured and ineffective Yamamoto rather than taking a look at Lavoie (or another look at Holloway) in February. Might have been the difference between winning and losing when it mattered.

Anybody but Yamomoto against Eichel would have been an improvement.

OriginalPouzar

You mean the Yamamoto that had a 57% goal share at 5 on 5 last season?

The Yamamoto that had Drai had a 58% goal share when on the ice with (and a 49% when he wasn’t on the ice with him)?

The Yamamoto that was the 5th most used forward on the PK by TOI/G (including Bjugstad, so 4th before he arrived)?

Scungilli Slushy

Yet he’s gone

The eye test saw constant issues. My Uncle is a statistician. The data needs to match what we see according to him. I saw a talented player physically over matched and having head impacts constantly that couldn’t finish with a world top centre

OriginalPouzar

Yes, he’s gone and it was likely the right move given his cap hit and his recent performance and injury history. My post was simply in response to an implication that Raphael Lavoie would have helped the team more last spring.

godot10

A good coach and GM explores all the options, uses that exploration to build optionality.

Reja

The Yamamoto experiment is over you can’t have a small of statue player that’s touted as skilled yet can’t hit the broad side of a barn. Yamamoto and not starting Campbell cost us the series!

Reja

Thankfully he’s gone that was angonizing watching Woody sending him out against the heavies. Cassidy must of been giggling to himself with Woodys lame duck deployment

jtblack

Doing a speech today at my Dads Celebration of Life. One of the points is he taught me a Love for Hockey at a young age. I like how LT said it – we all have a Love of Hockey. It makes September exciting and the next 7 months entertaining.

I love Hockey (thanks Dad).

And Love the Oilers. 🙂

slopitch

Sounds like a great guy. My dad was a massive oilers/eskimos fan growing up. The apple usually doesnt fall too far from the tree. Good luck today!