The Oilers won a game the easy way in Nashville last night. Solid goaltending, plenty of offense and a lot of good things at five-on-five. The month can still be rescued and Jack Campbell’s showing is perhaps the most encouraging development of all. Now, it’s on to Philly.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What we’ve learned about the Oilers in the NHL season’s first week
- Lowetide: How can Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft solve the team’s early issues?
- Lowetide: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team is set up for 2023-24 success
- DNB: Several Oilers defensive issues remain despite Mattias Ekholm’s return
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor Brown contract could impact roster decisions
- DNB: Stanley Cup-aspiring Oilers have a long way to go after ‘big gut punch’ in season opener
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ opening-night roster is short two foundational pieces
- DNB: Why Raphael Lavoie didn’t make the Oilers and other roster questions ahead of regular-season opener
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: NAS, PHIL (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NYR, CAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-2-0, 12 points in 8 games
- Actual October results: 1-2-0, 2 points in 3 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 1-2-0, 2 points in 3 games
The Oilers still did some weird things in their own zone, and Campbell’s rebound control is part of his game based on all evidence. Still, moving Warren Foegele up the depth chart proved inspired and the defense bent but did not break. Here’s the story.
THE NUMBERS
Leon Draisaitl against the Nashville Predators is a phenomenon. I’d like to see the two teams in the WC final during the big man’s career peak. Zach Hyman was also a star of the game, and Jack Campbell had a wonderful night. His save percentage this morning is .915. Incredible. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has earned a mention here, he’s averaging two points a game and his five-on-five goal share is 4-1. Music! Connor McDavid is the only man on planet earth who can quietly go 1-1-2 in an NHL game.
Evander Kane picked up an assist last night (seconday) and isn’t shooting much nor are there multiple HD scoring chances per game. You’ll want to see that increase. Dylan Holloway, on the other hand, is a shooting machine and has multiple chances through three games. I could see him getting a push up the depth chart in the days to come. I don’t know if he’ll score, that’s always been the worry, but he’s earning a chance.
Ryan McLeod and Connor Brown are playing well enough, but having little impact on offense. Edmonton needs both men to have success. Brown’s contract bonuses kick in soon, he’ll need to deliver sooner than later. McLeod’s speed is an asset, needs to cash.
Warren Foegele deserves his own paragraph. Gifted the slot Connor Brown was filling in the first two games, he scored, picked up an assist and looked engaged all game. His story is becoming similar to the Marty Reasoner career spike, save for circumstances. Reasoner was placed on waivers, cleared and then went to town. Foegele was heavily rumoured as a trade piece around the deadline in 2022-23, and got his ass in gear and now we are here. Impressive.
Adam Erne had some good moments, two HDSC and the pass from Derek Ryan should have been a goal; I’m not sure he got good wood on it. Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan played effectively and hopefully people will appreciate what they’re bringing.
Darnell Nurse saw the Tomasino-Glass-Nyquist line most often, spending just three minutes agains the Ryan O’Reilly trio (Edmonton would score at five-on-five). Mostly paired with Ceci, he did spend time with all other Oilers blue. We might be seeing a transition. Cody Ceci played the second most minutes five-on-five (behind Nurse) and the Nurse wowy’s are a tell. With Ceci, Nurse was 3-11 shots, without him Nurse was 3-3. A period of transition appears to be on the way.
Mattias Ekholm had a fine night, 2-0 goals at five-on-five and 53 percent expected goals (Nurse was 35 percent). Evan Bouchard picked up two assists (one at five-on-five) and looked like he was back to playing his old style. He can’t get bogged down with hitting and slashing, because that isn’t his game. I thought he fell into that role a little in the Vancouver games.
Brett Kulak was 1-0 goals five-on-five despite getting fed (15-5 shots) while he was on the ice in the discipline. Philip Broberg was 2-0 goals despite being 7-13 shots and giving up high dangers like candy on Halloween. He looked good in two minutes with Bouchard.
Jack Campbell was stellar in goal. His five-on-five save percentage is now .935. He looked identical to the player we saw at the end of preseason. I don’t know how often he’ll bring that game to the ice this season, but it’s a winning hand all day. All day.
Sports 1440 at noon today, we’ll roll out Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey to break down a win! Those are always great days. Jeff Krushell from Krush Sports Performance will chat about a new program parents of athletes will want to hear and we’ll dive deep into the mlb playoffs. We’re at Sports 1440, noon to 2 today. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I guess I’m a stone alone, but I thought Ceci was quite decent last night and has been pretty good overall through the first 3 games.
Foot speed is the only issue imo but it is a real and present danger.
I thought that whatever the details Nurse-Ceci looked better than Nurse-Bouchard, and that Bouchard looked like a top 4 D again with Ekholm.
What will it take to pry Pesce from Carolina? Would solve a lot of problems for the oilers, albeit short term if he’s unwilling to resign. Would Bourgault, Ceci and 2024 1st, 2025 2nd be enough.? Armchair GM is fun
Unless Carolina falls on thier face he isn’t getting traded.
Other options are not as desired but may include Faulk or Carlson in an ekholm style trade. So 2 firsts and a player or two plus more for salary retention. Tbh there are not alot of stellar options for a top 4 rhd
Yeah – Carolina is in Cup or Bust mode too.
It’s way to early to start speculating about who is going to be out there for a RHD replacement for Ceci. We’re going to have to wait to January to know with more certainty which teams are out of the playoff picture, and might be looking to sell.
Tyson Barrie may top the list.
Dillon
DeMelo
Lyubushkin
Kudos to Jack Campbell…..great game
It is fascinating reading commentary on the Oilers this season.
People are aware that the Oilers have only played three games, right?
Even the Vancouver games. Were they ugly? Yes.
But those games were wayyy higher stakes for Vancouver with a new coach than for the Oilers.
I enjoy shitting on the Oil as much as the next person. But I am seriously worried about some folks’ mental health if they this worked up already.
This was a long winded way of saying: calm your tits folks!
I think given the hype around the Oilers, we have a number of new posters here and they are the most volatile. Old timers have a bit more context and to a degree, respect for the comments section.
An historical arc as they say.
Like you say, it’s three games, things will work themselves out. I like to evaluate in terms of ten games at a time. If they are 1-9 at that first turn, then there’s a problem.
I have four kids who have never lived in Edmonton, yet are the most die hard Oiler fans you have ever seen. They have not been there for the glory years, they sort of remember 2006. They are significantly more rabid than I, literally their day is based on how the Oil played the night before.
(I might have been a little too aggressive in fanning their Oiler love!)
Let’s give it ten games and evaluate then!
New posters here are the most volatile. That one made me laugh. Thank you.
Lmao! Oh sure, long time Oiler fans are less volatile, for sure, for sure! /s
I think its the other way around. Newbies haven’t had their hearts broken enough yet and also can’t compare the team to the glory days as easily.
I down-voted because I am getting pretty, pretty tired of random people telling me what I can say or think.
You might really want to rethink using the up/down vote option to say anything.
Just to let you know… You’re not allowed to say this. 😉
So I was looking in NST at Brobergs stats so far to see how he is doing on either side.
On the left side Broberg is 50% Fenwick and xgf% with 53.6 corsi events against.
On the right side he is 42.42% Fenwick with 34% xgf and 60.2 corsi events against.
Yes very small sample size but he is hitting average for a player on his off side with around 6.5 more corsi events against per 60.
Now I am a fan of Broberg and Imo he can be cup caliber at 3ld but so far if he is on the right side then we need an upgrade for playoffs.
100%.
Very few D can play their offside at a high level. Expecting essentially a rookie to play his offside in the top 4 seems like a recipe for losing.
And this is why I have a hate on for kulak …. paying a guy almost 3 million for 3rd pair while we have Broberg who could excell in that spot.
Eh. Kulak is very tradeable. And depth is critical.
His salary is pretty large for the 4th best lhd.
So if Broberg is not capable (or ideal) at #3 RD we have a problem. Based on play so far this year (yes small sample size) Ceci no longer has the foot speed to play in top 4. It would be a defensible argument to place Bouchard at #2 RD which leaves a glaring hole at 1 RD. Not certain how many good teams have the right complement of L + R D????? Holland should perhaps be beating the bush’s for at least a capable #2 RD. Maybe at the trade deadline????
Unless Bouch and Des make big strides in season they will be looking for a RD and C of some type I think
Colorado and Vegas have L L pairs, however Theodore is top end so he can do it, he’s also 28. The Avs L L are both high skill and high mobility which helps
Bro could do it well I think because of his skating, but he’s not getting a fully functional partner unless he’s getting Ek, and that hurts when you’re 22. Ek is the only D on the team with a full top end game (when healthy). Everyone else has distinct weaknesses even if they are good overall
We should mention that, prior to these two games (almost exclusively with a Brett Kulak who is overtly struggling), Broberg’s numbers with each of Keith, Nurse, Kulak and Ekholm over the last couple of seasons were good to very good.
Your statement is a little misleading here. Yes he had decent stats with all 4 but he performed significantly better with out Nurse or kulak. As to ekholm I believe that has more to do with Mattias doing his best impression of a Norse hockey God where he floated ALL boats. Keith and broberg were slightly better together for 13 minutes. Yes same as this year with sample size but the reality is he plays better on average on the left side over the course of his nhl career.
This year’s left/right numbers aren’t worth talking about IMO because of tiny sample size (only 12-13 minutes as a LD).
And your historical ‘reality’ is highly debatable as well. Looking at Broberg’s whole career there’s very little to choose between his results as a LD and a RD.
As LD – 621 minutes (with Bouchard, Ceci, Barrie, Desharnais, Demers, in order)
FF% – 55.2
SF% – 55.0
GF% – 48.5
xGF% – 56.3
SCF% – 56.3
HDCF% – 49.2
As RD – 186 minutes (with Kulak, Nurse, Keith, Niemalainen, Ekholm, in order)
FF% – 53.8
SF% – 53.9
GF% – 50.0
xGF% – 56.6
SCF% – 54.8
HDCF% – 57.1
I left out 17/18 minutes with Russell and Lagesson since I don’t know who was playing left/right D.
It was referenced last night but I think it could be a notable fact – when Woody/Gully threw out PP3 and PP4 late in the game, the likes of Erne and Ryan got some of those minutes (and offensive puck touches) but Holloway didn’t see the ice.
I’m not sure why but I would have thought Holloway would get some time in that situation.
Something is not connecting between #55 and the Coach.
During the first game last year, one thing went wrong and he found himself immediately demoted. Since then he has been treated differently. I don’t like it.
I agree, it’s total BS. Woody has to get his head out of his ass. I am on record of saying I do not like Erne. No idea why he is even on the team.
I couldn’t remember who was on the ice when Ekholm was tripped, almost hoping I could excuse Woodcroft for the decision, but no… Holloway was on the bench and presumably fresh for the PP.
What are the Oilers PP units again this year?
PP#1 is Nuge, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard, Hyman
PP#2 is… ??
Careful with this gang… it’s a trap!
It’s going to be an Oilers trivia question one day
“Name 5 players who played on the second power play unit under the McDavid & Draisaitl lead Oilers”
It seemed the coach was focused on “getting everybody going” and Holloway is already up and running strong.
Holloway has zero points why would you not throw him a bone. He’s a kid confidence is a real thing especially for a youngster. Nevermind rewarding Erne I’m just thankful Sutter packed it in because you know damn well Woody and Holland would have been giving him the royal treatment no matter how bad he played.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has earned a mention here, he’s averaging two points a game and his five-on-five goal share is 4-1.
I’d like to add that 3 of his points are at 5 on 5.
Just like last season, about half the points are on the PP, which also means alot of points at 5 on 5.
Many continue to think of him as a PP specialist and, of course, he makes hey on the PP, but last season he was 52nd in the NHL in 5 on 5 points – tied with Gaudreau and more than the likes of Eichel, Scheifele, etc.
To produce at evens away from both McDavid and Drai – well, that is real and that is spectacular.
City boy, it’s “hay”!
For me the rubber meets the road when the game is difficult especially 5v5
They are capable of lighting teams up when things roll their way but that doesn’t mean much to the end goal
I hope we see the top 6 (and everyone) doing good things when the opponent is providing stiff resistance
I would think being a material contributor to a goal less than a minute in to a game against an opponent that just beat you 8-1, is production at a meaningful time.
Yes but talk about small sample sizes
Nuge was absent last playoffs. Many were. Maybe injuries, but at the end of the day teams that win cups have their players contributing somehow. Few teams get through healthy
I’m not ragging on anyone in particular but things have to be different than before if they are getting over the hump. Maybe they are different, but it’s 3 games and there is speed wobble
When I see consistent solid play game in and out by the team overall, then it’s wait and see what happens in the 2nd season
That was one of Hyman’s best game as an Oiler to my memory.
He made more “skilled plays with the puck” than he normally does in a week (he’s more of a skilled mucker to me) and his 3-zone game was as good as its every been, to my eye.
Good on him for that performance – here is hoping its the start of a streak as I believe he produces in bunches sometimes.
Hyman brings it every game and I enjoy that. Most players are offensively streaky, only the superhumans do it consistently. The key is what are you contributing when not scoring, if it’s minuses then that’s got to change for ultimate success. Focus on goal share until the points start coming
That is the thing, from my viewings, Hyman always brings it in the opposition zone but he doesn’t always bring the same effort level in the defensive zone which often includes the “cheating for offence” (i.e. flying the zone when his teammate is about to battle for a 50/50 puck, etc.).
I think the Oilers might have played better on Saturday night against the Nucks than they did last night.
This is a funny game sometimes.
Absolutely agreed. The difference being they finished chances they couldn’t on Saturday and got timely saves when they needed them.
Prior to the season I thought that Foegele should be in a true competition for that 6F slot and that Brown shouldn’t be locked in. There was no chance they weren’t going to start Brown in the top 6 but I didn’t that should be the case.
For me, Brown is more of a “middle six” player (that it can play up) and it should be acknowledged that it may take a couple of months, not a couple of games, to find his form.
I will admit that my premise of Foegele in the top 6 was playing worth Drai as they do have a history of success – it was very heartening to see both Foegele and Hyman success away from the big two last night.
I’m going to presume that last night’s production was somewhat of an outlier but can that line together produce enough and drive 55% plus goal share for term?
— Or maybe they had a better “effort” : lol!
— Last year Conner averaged over 22 minutes per game (most) Drai 21:44 (4th). Mark Stone was only VGK over 19 mins (and 44th)
— The year before Ratenen MacKinnon played well more than a minute per game less (Amd way less games.
— It’s encouraging that McD only played 17 minutes last night (but Drai 21).
— The Cup teams haven’t “won” TOI/GM as far as I can see for many years from their forwards.
— Play them less is something to track this year
How many minutes would McDavid play if he was on the Knights?
— Less than he has with the Oil guaranteed
— Every coach has rode McDrai so hard : those extra minutes every game is penny wise pound foolish.
Evander Kane was the epitome of “can’t get there anymore” on a couple plays last night. On one 3-on-2, 97 drove wide and made a perfect slip pass to 29 with the middle drive. He had a split second 2-on-1 to slide it into space where a waiting Kane on his one-timer side could have hammered it into the gaping net.
Except he was 7 feet behind. Right read by everyone involved including Kane…but he just couldn’t get there.
Anyone who wants to question the validity of advanced stats (I don’t btw!) look at the Nuge line being 0-2 in High Danger chances according to Natural Stat Trick. Two passes directly across the Royal Road to a wide open player with time to corral the puck and pick his spot leading to two goals. And no high danger chance?
That will always be the biggest issue with analytics. A lot of subjectivity creeps in and hides behind the numbers.
Well that and people using stats that have no year over year correlation so are pretty much useless for trying to predict the future.
That seems to be the case for publically available data over small samples like one game. I suspect that proprietary data that teams are using is significantly more accurate.
NST categorizes shots solely based on where they were taken from with context of how the shot came to be, who is taking it, etc.
Those one-timer were taken from “the outside” according to NST – there is no regard to east/west pass prior and having the goalie moving, etc.
For Oilers’ games, the Cult’s scoring chance data is supreme (but, of course, they only do one game and the date is not available in real time).
Canucks trade away Jack Rathbone.
Wasn’t that guy supposed to be the next Brogan Rafferty?
Seems like he is trending that way indeed.
LHD traded for a RHD to address a need.
Tidy bit of work.
Hah! How are you going to flip around your comments from yesterday on Saros’ save percentage?
Lol! You and your catch phrases HH. Thanks for bringing the humour on a daily basis.
Left shot AHL d-man traded for right shot AHL d-man – a tidy minor league deal.
and bad faith 🙂
Huge game for Campbell had his save percentage bounce back to respectability while releasing some Demons as well. Campbell needs to be athletic to be effective none of this stand there like a stump and play your angles well. Challenge the shooters be interactive with the D double stack the pads Billy Ranford style. Jack has top 5-10 talent when he plays with confidence and the style of play that netted him as a 1st rounder 11 overall.
What’s the transition coming on D, LT? Ceci dropping?
Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Broberg
Kulak-Ceci
I can see them going back to that, but Nurse has to stay in his lane and stop getting caught off ice first. Nurse needs to start channeling his inner Huddy if he’s going to be paired with Bouchard.
I could also see Bouchard-Ekholm getting a push in ice time, and Nurse continue to rotate with different partners.
I like both players, but Nurse/Bouchard in their own end is the blind leading the blind.
LT, your comment “they did some weird things in their zone” last night was spot on. Nashville forechecked hard (don’t they always?) and the Oilers made several ghastly puck decisions, but Campbell bailed them out this night.
From where I was sitting (up behind the Oilers net for periods 1 & 3):
It’s one game, so don’t go overboard, but they got a win they needed. The sun came out today.
Thanks for this. Love to hear from those that see the game live.
It seemed there were a lot of Oiler fans there!
Yes. Not as many as in last year, but timing could be it. Had someone walk up to me (had my Ryan Smyth jersey on) and had a great convo. He and his friends came to see the Titan’s and Preds, but the Titan’s were in London. Hope he had a blast, the Oilers delivered!
I believe 630 Ched/Oilers Now had their fan trip down to the game last night so there would have been a contingent of Oilers fans there for sure.
Rereading yesterdays thread before game time, I don’t think there is enough crow in Edmonton to feed everyone.
I’m at the buffet right now.
My favourite was Saros getting hyped up because he only allowed in 6 goals against in 3 games, while the Oilers duo combined for 12 goals! After last night:
Oilers duo – 13 goals against
Nashville duo – 13 goals against
GA/GP
EDM 4.33 second worst in the NHL
NSH 3.50 twelfth worst in the NHL
All of COL, DAL and VGK well under 2.00
Georgiev .958
Oettinger .948
Hill .951
Very early days but the cream is already rising.
“Very early days” indeed.
So again, why were you hyping up Saros as if a 3 game sample size was significant?
Snapshots are snapshots.
Would you not trade Campbell for Saros?
Why not?
I see the goalposts are moving rapidly today.
From “look at Saros save percentage and how meaningful it is”
To “it’s early days, but look at these other teams and their %’s”
To “snapshots are snapshots!” (I guess that’s bad news for one of your favourite teams, the Kraken)
To “wouldn’t you trade Campbell for Soros?!”
All because you were confronted with your own posts.
Short of one playoff year, Hill doesn’t have a track record of playing like an elite goalie. He’ll come back down to earth hard at some point.
The team you play behind has a massive impact.
Vegas is relentless.
They are relentless for sure. A very good team. One that has owned the regular season and now the playoffs.
While Hill doesn’t have the track record one associates with a top goalie, I thinking backstopping a team to a Stanley earns him some street cred.
Georgiev and Ottinger are both good goalies – but both of those guys can run hot and cold.
flip Holloway and Kane? c’mon Woody, give it a try!
My exact thought this morning. That 2nd line needs to stay together as a reward for being the best line last game, and moving up Holloway is a great opportunity to give him some confidence after playing well the first 3 games with no boxcars yet to show for it.
Also gets Kane with Highlander and Brown for a potentially very strong 3rd line and doesn’t seem overly punitive for him given the relative strength of those new linemates.
you gotta get Kane going. & it’s too early for 55 to play against the top line.
The line up was working. keep it
Yep this should be the plan for at least 20 games or so.
Woodie could probably put Adam Erne on that line with Connor & Leon and they would be just fine.
I’d be giving Kane more tries to get his hands/feet working before I demoted him.
What a stroke of genius by Woody to put 97 and 29 together last night!
most people know that you can put the 2 together and things will go well. The argument is “is deploying McDavid and Draisatl on the same line, the best solution for winning the Stanley Cup?”
Nashville in October is not the same as Colorado or Vegas in April ….. That is the challenge.
Nashville is not even the same as Vancouver in October. Much better match for those Oilers who shall we say possess less foot speed. Speed is not everything but the game certainly becomes simpler to play when it is brought down a notch or two.
So why do so many criticize the coach’s decsion in October?
He’s not thinking about playoffs, he just wants to win a game.
Yes I agree. A coach’s job is not an easy one.
Hi Bruce – focusing on the immediate short-term (win tonight by whatever means) has been an Oiler coaching mantra for damn near forever. But it’s a dead-end that will not bring playoffs success.
Drai and McD need to drive their own lines and win GF% on their own. You need a solid 3rd line (Fog, Hyman, RNH looked like it). You need a 4th line that can PK effectively and at least break even 5×5. We need to know if the young dmen can play up the lineup. You need to know if you can trust Campbell. The young coach talks a lot about trusting the “process” but tosses it in the trash to get a win in G3. He shows very little confidence in his “process”. The team in general still looks immature.
McD and Drai on the top line together will not cut it in the semi-finals, Nurse-Ceci on the top pair will not cut it in the semi-finals, Skinner (I’m a longterm fan) as the starter will not cut it in the semi-finals. As our host would say the coach needs to “start as you mean to go on” and stop reverting to short-term crutches at the first sign of difficulty. Happy they won – not at all happy how they won.
Not so sure about the ‘start as you mean to go’ being valid in this case. How many teams hit the playoffs using the same lines as they did in the first week?
They won 6-1.
Unbelievable.
I’m starting to have doubts about Drasaitl as a number 2 centre on this team.
I get the idea of trying to spread the offence around in theory … but he’s the leading scorer in the NHL right now. Shouldn’t he be on the first line?
McDrai is fire … might as well keep them together.
The big caveat is this – they should play less and the RNH and McLeod lines should play more. Start as you mean to go indeed. If the idea is to get three lines going that can all outscore, they’re not going to get there by playoff time if you don’t give them the runway to develop in the regular season. Running McDrai for 24 minutes a game is the thing that Woody needs to dial back on this season.
In Toronto, Hyman was known for making every line better, and he generally has done that in Edmonton too … he’s got a great motor. But for some reason, he and Draisaitl are like oil and water … I think (hope) the change in the lineup was a tacit admission that those two don’t play well together … that’s not a knock on either player.
That Hyman-RNH-Foegele line had terrific chemistry last night … but it was just one game. So keep those three together for the next 5-10 games and give them enough time at 5v5 to know if you have a solid enough 2nd line.
Ceci is fading fast for sure – his game has been falling off a cliff since last season. But he’s on an expiring contract, and will almost certainly be cap ballast at the trade deadline, if not sooner for a RHD to pair up with Nurse. I would like them to run Broberg more with Nurse, to see if this problem can be fixed internally. But Manson seems to have a blindspot for the Nurse-Ceci pairing.
If Drai can’t center a defensively reliable outscoring 2nd line we will not win a SC. It’s pretty simple.