The last several weeks had a breathtaking pace to them. The Oilers going all the way to Game 7 SCF, followed by a shocking draft weekend, then shock and awe in free agency plus a couple of trades to make a dynamite coda (like the end of A Day In The Life by the Beatles). Right now, we’re in a holding pattern. After that, we’ll see about the (dun dun DUN DUN!) Leon Draisaitl negotiations.
WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT
The comments section yesterday focused on RD and what might happen if Evan Bouchard gets hurt. It’s an interesting thought, but all questions surrounding Edmonton’s RD depth chart spiral down to one frustrating fact: There is no obvious solution. I wish we could identify a $2 million Colton Parayko, but I can’t see him.
What I do see is a $1.1 million (or so) Philip Broberg who might be able to slide in on RD. That’s a major area of discussion, on merit, this summer.
If Evan Bouchard gets hurt, that’s a disaster no matter what else is going on.
If there was an obvious solution, the Oilers would have recognized it.
For me, the key discussion point on defense is Broberg. Worrying about Evan Bouchard getting hurt is like worrying about Connor McDavid getting hurt. Either way, you’re screwed if it happens but why invite that kind of anxiety in July? Especially when there are real (see below) reasons to be anxious?
WHY AREN’T WE TALKING ABOUT THE DRAISAITL CONTRACT?
This is the biggest issue of summer, and we’re already past the opening of the signing window. The lack of a general manager, and the announcement to come, give the Oilers organization some reasonable cover through the middle weeks of July. However, the clock is ticking.
I’m mildly surprised this isn’t a subject discussed more often in the comments section. I am genuinely shocked by the text line at Sports 1440, where reaction to my bringing up the subject is “why are you trying to run him out of town!??!” and similar thoughts.
If we’re a newsroom and the primary source of news for our readers is the Edmonton Oilers, why would we avoid the question of Draisaitl’s future? It’s confounding to me that no one is (really) talking about it. This is a major story. Huge.
Leon Draisaitl did not sign a contract July 1. The Edmonton Oilers surely have a very good idea about how this will go. If the two sides were close, I suspect the contract would be done and announced by now.
It’s possible the two sides are waiting for the GM announcement, and weddings, before Draisaitl’s media avail.
I understood the lack of discussion in front of the Pronger trade because the request wasn’t public until much later.
However, it surprises me that seemingly everyone believes this contract gets done. I haven’t seen very many (there are a few) trade ideas in the comments section. Shocking. Seriously. Especially considering this version of Oilers management seems to be getting more than 100 cents on the dollar in transactions.
The devotion to the idea of the Glimmer Twins winning the Stanley in Edmonton together is so strong that nothing can permeate the dream. I find that rare among Oilers fans over the 20+ years of this blog.
In conclusion, I think this is a hella-big story and people are missing the big part of it. Discussing a one- or five-year deal (instead of eight) is the likely order of the day again on this Tuesday.
What if September comes and no contract? What then? I’ve been waiting for this to come up in discussion, or someone to engage me on the text line, but it seems few want to discuss it. Perhaps it’s a good thing. I am not the driver of conversation, but do believe this issue has more discussion points than we (as a group) let on.
A busy day on the Lowdown, we’re going to talk to Bruce Curlock at 12:40 today on the Lowdown, Sports 1440. Between noon and 2pm we’ll also discuss the MLB trade deadline and the Olympics. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Generational draft in 2015. Following are Bowman’s results for CHI.
So all stories on sportsnet related to the Bowman hire (and there are about 6 of them or more) have comments turned off. Shocking.
Hardly shocking.
People struggle with nuance and civility these days.
Speaking of dysfunction in the executive branch…
When was the last time we heard anything from Bobby Nicks? Was it the infamous Tobias Rieder and “something in the water” comments?
I dare say his official title has changed:
Special Advisor & Alternate Governor, Hockey Operations
The OEG site also has him still as chairman of the Oilers and also responsible for the operations Oil Kings and Condors. It’s kind of weird
Every once and a while the likes of Barbara Streisand, Cher or Jennifer Lawrence will take to social media to announce that they are absolutely going to renounce their US citizenship and move to Europe if a certain presidential candidate is elected. Of course they never do and these folks are never called out for their behaviour because drama queens are expected to be overly dramatic.
In watching the reaction on social media to Stan Bowman’s hire, I am forced to conclude that their are a lot of ‘Streisands’ in Oil Country these days. The bandwagon feels a little lighter today which is good for the suspension I suspect. Probably makes for a smoother ride for the rest of us.
Could well be. I’m not bailing on my team.
I’m not a fan of cancel culture. I believe in redemption.
We’re not privy to any, really, of the details of what transpired behind the scenes leading up to this decision. One would assume DK had to sign off on this; with his business/corporate nature, you’d hope he’d have been suitably assured that proper risk mitigation has occurred to limit the downside risk on the franchise.
Bad optics? ABSOLUTELY.
As for the results, only time will tell.
For sure
JJ has some brass ones for sure. It is a real hot button issue, brings out the worst in many people. There is a particular word that was being used in the comments that LT shut down, that is inaccurate to the situation, and I think highly inappropriate to use without a lot of care
Wanting to cancel everyone, opinion half informed and straight off the latest headline or social media feed – true or untrue – is self righteous to the degree that I want to hurl. If you don’t like something, at least get the facts and form a reasoned point of view and express it with a level head, not the limbic brain
I think they should have chosen a different direction as most seem to, I don’t like the circus and think there were better choices in terms of resumes, but I can do without the overreactions
Bravo. Spot on.
Links to today’s press conference. First with Stan Bowman being announced by Jeff Jackson, followed up by one with Sheldon Kennedy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taK6hX1TQ3c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zc7xp4ydV2Y
Sat down with my girls for a chat today about second chances. We all came to the conclusion that second chances are fine but then we as fans have choices to make. Our family has now made the choice to withhold spending any money on the oiler products. This is the only way we can see to express our displeasure with Bowman as a leader.
Our family is with you on this one. I will be ‘giving back’ my Oilers jersey by throwing it on the ice at an upcoming game Oilers game in Ottawa, Toronto or Calgary this season
Others have said a variation of this, but I can’t help but wonder/hope the reason for this hiring was because JJ is going to have the final say and keep an active hand on the rudder.
Much like we all know it’s really Jeff Groton at the helm in MTL and not Kent “Whatshisname” Hughes.
Of course, the damning thing is word that Jackson was keyed in on Bowman before the hiring ban was even lifted by the NHL.
This speaks to having his guy in mind, a la Coach KK, and not doing his due diligence in earnest with respect to other candidates. Maybe he catches lightning in a bottle, twice. We’ll see.
Yet, when there are qualified and reputable names like Mark Hunter, Mathieu Darche, Sean Burke, Laurence Gillman, etc. floating around and Stan “Malfeasant” Bowman is the best you can do… what does that say about your internal process?
I sure hope there’s a grand plan at work here, because I’d hate to see Bowman atrophy this team the way he did in CHI with a demonstrated lack of budgeting, talent assessment, player development, contract negotiation, trading skills, and general foresight.
I don’t think there is a grand plan. Just Ol’ Boys Club at play. If JJ just wanted a ‘yes’ man, there are certainly dozens of others that could have been hired instead.
The amount of people who were on the fence about the Finals and felt maybe a bit bad for Edmonton now coming out and saying they couldn’t be happier is ridiculous. The new management had nothing to do with that run and it’s a bit rude in hindsight.
Could the week of Mark Hunter rumours have been testing leaks in the media? Think Tyrion Lannister and how he gave the rest of the Council different plans and news in order to see what joined the whispers, and where.
I feel like we’d be in a better place with Hunter but who knows what will happen. We can only hope for the best while expecting the worst. I personally have no idea where this road will lead so I guess we just have to see.
Well of course YOU would approve of a Mark Hunter signing 😉
Have to say, your notion of testing the sources of media leaks is interesting, and highly likely.
When Tesla was having issues with leaks, the brain trust gave every employee individual documents with the same copy. The only differences were so minuscule enough as to not be caught by the naked eye. Cyrillic “a” in one word in the entire text, or two spaces after a period at the end of a paragraph, and so on. Then they compared against the leaked document and found the source(s) and promptly
firedsealed the leak(s).Echoing AsiaOil’s comments on the other thread – need to see action. Need to see the Oilers mgmt org be leaders and initiators around abuse. Anything less is a lot of lip service.
Not sure if I’m optimistic on that front, tho. Didn’t like how the player was the lead during the Ethan Bear situation
Does this mean we can thank Bowman for the Nurse contract? 😉
Maybe part of his hiring is he has to get rid of what he played a part in creating
I didn’t believe Jackson would do this, just terrible
Not that I expect much from the Spector’s and the Matheson’s, etc., but whenever the GM press conference happens, there better be an unrelenting stream of questions about Bowman’s involvement in the Kyle Beach situation, his attempts at reparation, an acknowledgment of the optics of all this throughout the Edmonton community and Oilers fan base, and how he plans to both allay those concerns and build a positive relationship with his new community and the local organizations that the Oilers support. I’m honestly not interested in NHL press releases, etc, from two weeks ago. I want to hear it from Bowman’s mouth in real time.
That’s what I’d like to hear, for starters. But I still don’t think we should have hired him.
what a terrible start to the day. Don’t know how I feel about this, we’re definitely going to be ridicule from other fan bases and rightfully so. Feels like all the great things JJ has done so far, been quickly wiped off from this hire. Bowman brings nothing, NOTHING.
Credit to 2 mutts, they were the first to report this stupid hire.
Ignoring the morals and optics of this, what has Bowman actually done well as a GM? Was he good at trades? Negotiations? Did he have a good drafting record? Anything else?
Not much
Gross
Can’t wait for the JJ Bootlickers to line up and tell us how masterclass this is.
Shoulda kept Holland. What a crap start to the day.
Disgusting news this morning. I hope Leon is moved to a team I can support because the Oilers aint that anymore.
Nope, Leon’s extension will make Bowmans hiring acceptable…..
Surprised that that Oilers are hiring Bowman as GM. Don’t like his track record as GM.
RELEASE: Oilers announce Bowman as GM & EVP of Hockey Ops | Edmonton Oilers (nhl.com)
An actual Draisaitl WOWY, not pretend on ice stats…
Draisaitl 2021-2014 5v5 individual scoring regular season
all
160 points, 3811 minutes 0.04 P/min
with McDavid
62 points, 1228 minutes 0.05 P/min
without McDavid
98 points, 2483 minutes 0.04 P/min
Just doing points is only one side. It’s about how much more did your team score than the opponent.
Over the last 3 seasons, Drai, without McDavid at 5 on 5, has outscored the opposition 130-117.
I am not saying he is bad but come on 13 goals above even over 3 seasons is not lighting the world on fire.
In the public domain there is only one side: individual stats. That’s all we have pubic access to. The rest is largely pretending.
NHL teams don’t place much value on on-ice stats and public analytics. They are using advanced micro stats, machine vision and big data analytics to look at the things that players actually do on the ice: exits, entries, possessions, skating speed, etc . Not the correlative data that may or may not reflect some aspect of the player’s contributions.
This is confirmed in many places on the internet, but the most recent telling exposés were from David Johnson on Twitter after he left the Calgary Flames.
Draisaitl is an interesting case in that he typically posts very high scoring rates with less high individual expected goals because he attempts from non-traditional regions. His “executioners shot” for example is usually from a zone determined to be low-danger, but due to his shooting skill and it being typically received on a cross ice pass, it’s actually a high percentage play (for him).
There was a time when what we think of as “analytics” was important. But that time is gone. And most of the discourse is just pretending so that people like Parkatti can get hired.
On the inside, it’s a different story. On the outside looking in, we’re pretending.
The inside analytics will show that Draisaitl deserves his big contract when he gets it.
I don’t know if the last sentence is true because who knows till we see the data… but your observation on the present state of analytics, public v team, is dead on and an argument I’ve made here several times since the rise of firms like sportlogiq.
The difference, for me, between fretting over the lack of right-handed depth and the lack of a Draisaitl contract, is the lack of control over the latter.
While there’s no obvious solution, there’s the option of trying to make incremental improvement. (Jokiharju).
Draistaitl either wants to sign another contract or he doesn’t. If he does, it will get done. If he doesn’t, it won’t.
It’s too much to contemplate the cascade effect of Draisaitl getting traded which would likely mean a trade of 97 in a year’s time.
We have so little depth at RD, that trading Ceci right know is unfathomable. When it comes to the playoffs, we know that Nurse and Ceci are like matter and anti-matter. When they come in contact with one another, they annihilate the team. This is a festering roster problem that I am looking forward to seeing a resolution.
I don’t agree McDavid would leave. They aren’t conjoined twins. Connor is an intelligent person and knows the deal
He also knows he is driving this team, not anyone else. Going to another team for him means a weak team with lots of cap and lots of assets. Who is that? Why would he want to?
No, it’s not a foregone conclusion that he’d leave, but I’m sure many of us would be fretting over the possibility if Draisaitl doesn’t extend.
Connor does have his guy, Jackson, at the helm, so I haven’t been worrying much about Draisaitl extending. I’m confident that it will get done.
completely agree, he will or he won’t. Although to do believe he will and it will be for max term.
I think Jokiharju would be a decent fit, even if temporary. Could be the buy lowish and he hits on a better team.
if not him I believe the plan is to wait and see who shakes loose during the season and strike then.
In 2024, Leon was named the best passer in the league by his fellow players in the NHLPA poll. This is the second consecutive season he finished atop that category.
In 2020, he won the Hart and Ted Lindsay as the most valuable and best player in the league respectively. Not typically awards given to a passenger player incapable of pushing the river.
Leon is currently 5th all time in NHL playoffs points per game, ahead of the likes of Messier, Orr, and Bossy. Not too shabby for someone who allegedly lacks the ‘skill’ of staying healthy.
I would imagine the contract is taking some time to get it right as the Oilers fully appreciate what they have with this player. I wish the fans were equally unanimous. It’s amazing how often I encounter Draisaitl critics who downplay his bottom line production over their serious concerns over his shift lengths, turnovers, and body language.
If you appraise Leon as anything other than one of the most dominant players in this league, you are full of grey poupon imo. I’m going to side with the NHL players who awarded Leon the Ted Lindsay and rightfully recognize him as the best passer in the game. For some reason, the opinion of his peers carries more weight with me than his alleged corsi deficiencies.
He is as very talented player for sure. Have you watched the last few elimination series where he wasn’t healthy enough? What about his declining stats? The rest doesn’t matter. It’s pro sports, championships matter
What do you mean by his declining stats?
I think Broberg on his off-side in the top 4 is the clear choice right now heading in to camp and I could see either of the following working:
Ekholm/Bouchard
Nurse/Broberg
Kulak/Ceci
Stecher
Nurse/Bouchard
Ekholm/Broberg
Kulak/Ceci
Stecher
If Evan Bouchard gets hurt, that’s a disaster no matter what else is going on.
Agreed – we are talking about a d-man that has arrived in the Makar, Fox, Hughes, Hieskanen, Josi tier of d-man.
He is an absolute minute muncher, leading the d-man in the playoffs in 5 on 5 TOI (and overall TOI) per game with a large gap. He was out there defending leads at the end of playoff games and was starting to get some PK time.
Losing a top 5 d-man in the league to injury would be a big blow, even if there was higher end depth behind him.
The Oilers are going to use Draisaitl as an own rental this season if he doesn’t sign a contract. it is not a big deal.
If he doesn’t sign between and and next July 1st, the Oilers will just use the cap space on a big name free agent or on an offer sheet or two of top young players coming off of their ELC’s or transitional deals.
I think Draisaitl is likely to sign for one or for eight or not sign at all. It is not really anything to fret about.
Tampa lost Stamkos, got Guentzel, and probably got younger and better. Brisebois got tired of the high maintenance, and he wasn’t going to do the Mr. Bojangles and kiss Meehan’s ring like Yzerman did last time.
Draisaitl is NOT Stamkos or Tavares. It won’t be a dog and pony show if there is no contract.
If he stays, he stays. If he goes, he goes. This is a hard cap league. If one knows how to manage the cap, the details don’t matter.
It really is a decision between Connor and Leon. Do they want to continue playing together or do they not. If they want to, the deals will get done. The Oilers just have to be in the ballpark with the dollars. i.e. $14 million or so. for Draisaitl.
If they can’t get a long term deal done this summer, one can probably get a one year deal done, and they can settle all the Oiler family business next summer.
I am not worrying about it.
Love it
But now, hell, what are we going to panic about??
Y’all know what I panic about.
If Leon is a top 3 player letting him walk at 29 is utter folly. Stamkos is 34
Franchise harming folly
If we lose Leon and Connor for nothing ho-hum no biggie we can offer sheet Vanek and Nylander. Maybe we can pry Huberdeau out of Calgary on a 3 party trade.
Lol😉
Doesn’t affect the Oilers at all but, for some reason, they are not releasing the individual arbitration hearing dates for this summer. I think it’s an NHLPA disclosure usually (not positive on that though).
I know I am In a small minority. I think Draistl should be traded as he is only a top 5 center when playing with McDavid. Away from McDavid the numbers do not shine. In the last 3 years regular season over 2500 minutes he hits at around 50% corsi, Fenwick, shots and xgf%, his actual gf% sits at 52.5%. In the playoffs it is worse. Over the last 3 years his playoffs have had 475 minutes with 45% in corsi, Fenwick, shots and xgf% with actual gf% at only 39%.
Can’t pay 13 million if a player doesn’t push the river when McDavid sits on the bench.
Remind me how those fancy stats weigh broken ribs and high ankle sprains into their equation.
By average. We are talking 3000 minutes here.
1500+ of those minutes are playing with busted ribs, or on one leg.
3000 of those minutes are dragging around two boat anchors.
But, if you’re telling me Dallas sends Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley then I have time for it.
Players get paid healthy or not. Availability is important, and he hasn’t been fully when it counts most, over several playoffs. I consider staying healthy a skill. It’s why I don’t want him or Connor trying to be too physical, it’s not worth the risk of injury, and players get hurt hitting or taking too many hits. The best careers are largely based on longevity
Maybe he’s been unlucky, maybe not. But it’s a 13M at least question for new GM to answer. I expect him to be resigned – whether it turns out to be a good thing we will find out later
His on ice numbers 5v5 lag the other better forwards almost across the board reg season and playoffs 23/24. Perhaps better help will change that. And improving the second pair, if they see it as being needed and can. And it is, it’s part of Leon’s problem to me. I see there being a fair amount of risk in the contract because it’s will be so big and likely long
Playoffs here are minutes with some D pairs:
Nurse Ceci 58
Nurse Des 30
Nurse Bro 16
Ekholm Bouch 123 (84 with Connor)
Kulak Ceci 58
If Draisaitl goes somewhere else, he will not be playing with the second stringers he has been forced to play with in Edmonton when away from McDavid.
In their prime, Crosby usually let Malkin have the better wingers. That has never happened in Edmonton.
Most of the guys Draisaitl has been forced to play with have never played in the top six anywhere else or have never played in the NHL on another team after playing with the Oilers.
He won’t be playing with second stringers this season.
Over the last three years, Leon’s most common linemates:
Hyman
McDavid
Yamamoto
Kane
Nuge
That seems more an argument against the validity of the stats than an argument against Draisaitl’s worth.
That’s a popular take. Please tell me why his results are average when he doesn’t play with McDavid?
Please tell me why those who work in hockey all rate him as one of top five offensive players in the world.
The numbers you posted are not results in the actual meaning of the word ‘results’. They are proxies for results which is not the same thing at all.
Which center in the league would produce big points at evens playing with rotating wingers the likes of Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, declining Kane, non-established Holloway, Foegele, etc.? Even Janmark at times.
Also Ceci – Nurse vs. Ek -Bouchard.
I am very convinced Drai’s meh w/o McD numbers are largely teammate related. The reason he generally out performs his xgf and corgis is because he is awesome. That’s my theory at least.
Best comparison would be Crosby and Malkin. Team also has cap issues and a rotation of wingers to fit. Malkin runs around 52 to 54% between corsi, Fenwick, gf and xgf. Malkins playoffs are small sample size and he was hot.
Coffee returning to the Oilers bench next year per Jimbo on Twitter.
That’s good news indeed. Wonder if he commits for multiple years.
Nothing about that on Matheson’s twitter account that I can see. Where are you finding that please.
OilersNation has a blog about it with some quotes from Coffey:
“I enjoyed it. The defence is awesome, they’re all good. Were there ups and downs in player’s games? Absolutely. As a coach you have to be there for them, good or bad. I think they enjoyed a different approach,” Coffey told Matheson.
https://oilersnation.com/news/paul-coffey-expected-to-remain-behind-edmonton-oilers-bench-as-coaching-staff-reportedly-stays-intact?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
__________
I was waiting for some news on this as Jackson was asked about it last Tuesday and said he thought Coffey would be coming back but wasn’t sure and was going to take to him last week.
Thanks. I’ll take a look but Matheson’s twitter is silent today.
I’m not concerned one bit about Draisaitl. The deal is already done at least in theory. The delay is more theatrical in my opinion.
As others have postulated, it’s likely Jackson will let the new GM get the spotlight and credit for the deal. It’s just smart business.
They keep us all on the edge of our seats to keep us reading and clicking all summer.(which we do anyways)
Enjoy the show!
I’ve been yakking about our new G.M getting a max return on Leon since last summer if Leon’s made it known he’s moving on to new challenges elsewhere. What if this is not about money, that’s right not everything is about cash. If one of my favourite Oilers all-time leaves the Oilers I will be heart broken but I won’t take it personal like many others will. You can not allow Leon to walk into free agency. He must be signed are traded for a haul the crest on the jersey is more important than Coffey-Moog-Gretzky-Anderson-Messier-Weight-Smyth-hall etc
Is there any indication that Leon has made it known he wants to move on?
From what I’ve read and heard, everything has pointed positively towards a re-sign in Edmonton.
I hope your right I really do. I want to see McDavid and Leon passing around the Cup 3 times in the next 8-9 years. After that Leon can be the Coach and McDavid will be the G.M.
Regarding Leon, his last contract extension was signed on August 16th.
Why would they sign it any sooner this offseason?
When he does sign, I expect it to be $12.5 million x 8.
No shot he takes less than Matthews. Expect it to be $14M or $15M if it happens.
The core-4 is never going to win in TOR.
Why? Because they all sought to maximize earnings at UFA rates.
The studs in EDM have actually won a few rounds, and they want to win. Ideally more than once.
I anticipate value deals for all three.
I think Leon cares more about winning than Matthews does.
We’ll see.
An 8-year term should lower the AAV over a 5-year term (5-year is more team friendly, 8 years includes later 30s regression years) but I’m not sure it will be $750K below Matthews AAC.
Pretty sure Jeff Jackson specifically said at the start of the summer that no negotiations with Draisaitl are apt to take place until the new GM is in place.
Slightly surprised that hasnt happened yet, but that hire is the horse, a Leon extension the cart.
Sorry to be pedantic, but was it no deal, or no negotiations?
I’m pretty sure they’ve had negotiations, but JJ wants the new GM to ink the deal.
Unlike times past when the GM ruled the organization like an Old Testament God, modern teams like the Jeff Jackson Oilers are run by a committee of leaders who will make big decisions by consensus.
Per your and BIAGJ’s comments, the new GM will have an important working relationship with the players. As such, that person needs to be hired, have an opportunity to build rapport with Draisaitl and his agent, and scenario different outcomes that outline the plan for team success, for the player’s individual goals and compensation, etc.
It’s not as simple as throwing 8 x $14M at the man and hoping for the best.
In fact, the best outcome for everyone is a 5 x ~$12M deal that helps the Oilers remain very competitive, and then allows Draisailt to sign a lucrative retirement contract in his mid-30’s.
At the end of a 5 year contract, Drail will be turning 36 years old – that term is perfect for the Oilers but Drai would likely be signing his next deal for a lower AAV, even with some cap increase.
Trading Draisaitl comments are comical, 29 isn’t going anywhere & 29 may want to see how the season plays out, it’s totally his right to do so.
The Oilers aren’t going to panic, teams are not going to give you there best defensive players or there best offensive players specifically if they’re going after a cup.
No McAvoy, No Robertson, No Pastrnak and the like.
They’re a limited amount of teams 29 will accept a trade too so forget the top ten draft picks you should receive for 29.
What is important is finding a top 4 RHD & other important issues like CAP space & other holes on the team
I see you’re back with your patented brand of sunshine.
And it would appear you’ve completely missed the nature of LTs entire post today.
He actually wants to encourage discussion about what the contract or a (Gord forbid) trade would look like.
Leon is a top-3 to top-5 centre in the NHL on every published list outside of HF Boards and Reddit. Other teams covet a player like him. Of course they’d listen if he’s available for a top player on their team. All depends on the balance of players involved on either roster.
And the new ace EDM seems to hold up their sleeve: bonafide negotiation and deal making skills.
It’s not unreasonable to
conceiveexpect that Draisaitl could land somewhere for another team’s marquee player. And that EDM could win the deal.YMMV.
With Jackson there I trust they wouldn’t do anything Stew Pid if things came to that. Agreed Leon should command a substantial return. I would be ok with trading him for the right deal, I think the team would likely be better overall
I have been worried about how his play is trending. And that he is becoming too predictable, that he doesn’t skate hard for more than bursts now. It’s like a player in his 30’s. Often he doesn’t have the juice to back check fully (yes he does make some good ones, but it needs to be all the time). He’s not made it to the end series twice now healthy enough to contribute much
I hope to see his game rejuvenated with proper help on the wing and not worry about it. If it doesn’t perk up I don’t think his game will age well over 8 years. He will always be skilled, but a player over 13M needs to be more than a guy waiting for set ups and the power plays, and making occasional good defensive plays
Leon and Connor need some relief during the regular season they aren’t 22 anymore. You cant whip them like rented mules all season and saddle Leon with scrubs like Kahun-Reider and lightweights with stone hands like so and so. Jackson finally has forward support and for me most importantly a 3rd line Centre. A fresh healthy Leon will score 50 and easily hit a 100 with some talented wingers. Geez Louise you could get a nice return from a few teams that he personally has probably discussed with his new G.M-agent-Actress Wife-teammates-a random person at 3am at Oktoberfest. If indeed Leon is moving on the new pro-active management will do this deal by training camp.
As far as Leon being saddled with scrubs, I would note that his two most common linemates this season at 5 on 5 were McDavid and Hyman, followed by Foegele and Nuge. Not necessarily scrubs.
Draisaitl will want to sign a contract sooner than later to hedge against injury risk.
I don’t believe Draisaitl will be traded. But if he is it would probably be to the Boston Bruins.
So, here’s my trade proposal.
Elias Lindholm, Mark Kastelic, Ian Mitchell plus a 1st round draft pick to Edmonton for Leon Draisaitl.
Need a Centre and a cost effective D as part of the deal. Ceci-Leon for ? What about a Leon-Nurse package that would be a bizarro return. .
Lindholm is a center, so is Kastelic a rather large RHC. Mitchell is a promising RHD from St. Albert. If you want to throw in Ceci, I’d ask for Carlo instead if Michell and I’d still want their 1st rounder. Of course we’re spit balling here. But if the Oil were to trade Leon it wouldn’t hurt the team at all, probably just add more quality depth. IMO.
If we’re trading Leon to BOS, McAvoy is the clear target.
Carlo, 27, only has three years left on his value deal at $4.1MM. He’s going to want to get paid as soon as his salary should begin to decline.
Lindholm, a good — not great, 29 year old centre/RW is already signed at $7.75MM for another seven seasons.
Those are good players, but poor targets to replace Leon.
You’re funny.
If numbers aren’t your thing, feel free to use numbers.
This is, after all, a math blog.
Stuart Skinner and wife Chloe both announced on Instagram they’re expecting their second child in 2025.
Might have missed it here, but haven’t seen it yet.
Good to know he made use of those days off during the 2nd round. 😇
Congrats to the Skinners.
This is my read on the situation.
Pretty sure Jackson has said publicly the Draisaitl deal will be handled by the incoming GM. My reading of the tea leaves says that JJ will give the new GM some solid crib notes for the extension negotiations.
There is nothing to be gained by rushing the process. The players are busy with their personal lives in an uncharacteristically short off-season. The organization has its top priority hiring to ace. There’s time.
Any trade for Leon would have to see a bonafide 1D come back, and one in or just entering his prime age.
I’ve cast about various rosters and ranking lists online, and to me all roads lead to Boston and Charlie McAvoy. He’s a horse (*you can see it in his eyes). With Leon’s NTC, destination and fit is a factor to consider. I suspect BOS would be a location he’d accept.
Not sure of/if a balance of players and picks would have to go either way, but I’d potentially be agreeable to a one-for-one transaction. McAvoy is signed for another six years at a bargain: $9.5MM AAV. Leon is due for a big raise. McAvoy is three years younger, 26 this year. Set to enter prime age as a defenseman.
Some press clippings follow.
Parsing an NHL Network rating with Fox ranked over McAvoy:
Source: https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nhl/boston-bruins/heres-where-charlie-mcavoy-ranks-on-nhl-networks-top-defensemen-list/264818/
About his analytics following the 2021/22 season:
Going on to rank him as #2 all around defenseman in the league, behind Makar.
Source: https://insidetherink.com/where-does-mcavoy-rank-among-the-nhls-best-all-around-defenseman/
ESPN (Greg Wyshynski) evaluating potential 2022 USA Olympic defensemen, with McAvoy and Fox at the top of the list.
Source: https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/32707374/nhl-us-defenseman-rankings-tiers-why-adam-fox-charlie-mcavoy-elite-class
Does BOS consider the trade? They’d be crazy not to, even if it’s not a likely deal to be made. This is about the only deal I’d be in favour of.
Unless there’s someone I failed to consider?
Then trade Bouch for a centre? They have to get a C back, or there is only Connor who is a proper top 6 C. Henrique is too old and Nuge isn’t a permanent C anymore. They would still have a hole at RD. They can’t have three D making more than 9M
No, I don’t trade Bouch for a centre. I want depth at defense: imagine not being immediately hooped if Bouchard was (*knocks wood) injured.
A 2C is an order of magnitude easier to find than a 1D. Especially a prime aged 1RC who’s on a value deal that lasts until his 30s.
Kane, Nurse, Ekholm, Nuge, etc, is fodder for a 2C upgrade if the incumbents can’t platoon the ranks.
You would have to trade Nurse then. Can’t have so many high cap hits on D, it would thin the forwards too much. And Stu is getting paid soon enough
Depends on the cap movement in the next several years. $5MM a year, per year, inflates the cap quickly.
But yes, Nurse is the only player not welded down. Everyone else, including Bouchard (but him nearly, if not last), is fair game.
Trading Nurse won’t be an easy task. It’s like you say, can’t have so many cap hits on D, it would thin the forwards out too much. Sometime down the road they will need to buy out that contract.
The Young Stars tournament schedule, featuring young players from the Vancouver Canucks, Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames, and the Winnipeg Jets has been announced.
The Oilers are set to play on Sep. 13th at 8:30 PM MT against the Canucks, Sep. 14 at 8:30 MT against the Flames, and Sep. 16 at 12 PM MT against the Jets. Tickets go on sale July 29 for the four-day event.
No word yet on who will be there for the Oilers.
You can always predict which weekend this event will take place because all the hotels and motels in Penticton pretty much double their rates for the three days.
Vancouver on Friday, Calgary on Saturday, Winnipeg on Monday afternoon. Same as every other Penticton tourney.
The key is to live in the Okanagan with all the other transplanted Oiler old farts. I’m glad the bulk of the Flames faithful chose the Kootenays to retire.
There are a few reasons the Draisaitl contract/potential trade don’t come up but I’d think the first is that most of those conversations devolve into non-Oiler fans screaming “ha ha, Losers! You’re gonna lose all your good players!” and that isn’t a particularly fun conversation.
I’d say it’s very likely Draisaitl either signs an extension or we hold onto him for the playoffs. Every trade deadline we see suggestions to trade everything not nailed down for a chance at Stanley, why would we give that up when we’re so close? I’d rather lose Drai for nothing while we have a real shot than to trade him for magic beans. We all saw what happened when we traded Pronger. That trade tree died and we have nothing to show for it so why not do everything we can to win while we can?
Woodley with his regular spot on the Gregor Show yesterday and they talked a bit about Skinner and his continued progression.
Woodley talked about how good he was with the change in defensive structure since November but one thing that stood out to me that he mentioned was the Oilers went from “worst in the league off the rush” to “best in the league off the rush”.
Kudos to the coaching staff.
Started working with Adam Francillia in November and Skinner will be up in the Okanagan to work with him again.
He was clear to stay that they work to reinforce the structure and foundation that Dustin Schwartz works with Skinner on. The work with Adam fits perfectly with the work Skinner does with Schwartz
Woodley mentioned that it has been a great fit with the goalie coach and how well they’ve worked together since he was drafted.
Is Adam Francillia the same guy Mike Smith worked with when he improved his tracking and rebound control over that one off-season?
For me, that was when doubt about Schwartz’s effectiveness really started to creep into my mind (had been a staunch supporter up until that point).
Yes, that is the same guy that Mike Smith (among various other prominent goalies) did some work with.
Thanks OP.
Wonder if he’s willing to move to BAK…
I think you’ve nailed the reasoning on the lack of concern from everyone.
Wedding is happening so Drai is a little too busy to be talking numbers (and so he should be). Based on the evidence (extremely busy free agency and subsequent trades) the lack of GM isn’t likely to be a factor – but again, my concern about him leaving isn’t even at 1%.
Wasn’t there quotes from both Drai and his agent saying that he wanted to remain in Edmonton? Or am I misremembering?
Anyhoo I guess if we roll into October and there isn’t even a hint of a new deal then I might start considering him departing.
For now it’s snooze time where we can concentrate on the prospects and betting on who lights up the AHL. Let’s go Condors!
Not to pick too many nits here, as you may already be aware, but your post wasn’t clear that it’s Connor getting married and Leon who got engaged.
That’s a fair nit to pick. My lack of interest in celebrity weddings has made me think Leon was the one getting married 😀 I stand corrected.
Still, I will not be concerned until we’re into the season.
Same! I had to look it up for the dates to reply to SS below, but recalled from osmosis from reading here that it was just Connor’s wedding this year.
I’m also nonplussed about the contract. It’ll get done.
And failing that, I finally have faith in the brass to get value in a potential trade.
I believe his agent said that Drai was underpaid in his current contract by up to 30%. A 30% bump on his current cap would be just over $11M. From an agent’s standpoint, if you factor in the maximum increase in the cap, based on current rules, is 5% each year and factor that into your ask for an 8 year extension and then ask for the midpoint (Roughly $13.3M AAV), what would you say if you’re sitting in the GM’s seat?
Deal will get done. Even if it’s a stinker, no GM is going to say, ‘on the first day at my new job I punted on the most important deal the franchise has made in the last 30 years.’ and he’s not going to say ‘Drai just wanted too much and we had to move on’. It will get done, it might be later than we’d hoped, there might be comments in the German press, but it will get done.
I think Drai will resign at a 4-5 yr deal. I think that would work well for both sides considering his age, injury history (esp playoffs). As harsh and business like as it sounds, 5 yrs from now he may not be the same player especially from a skating stand point.
I agree that they are waiting until the gm is hired. I am not too worried about it myself, maybe that is why is crickets for discussion.
Drai’s injury history? He’s injured because he plays a dominant game and the refs let the other teams take liberty’s like pull him down from behind in a scrum and make him fall awkwardly. Crank him in the ribs with stick when refs aren’t looking .. however, he still has results that put him as one of the top playoff performers of all time. He doesn’t get injured easily and does not have a history of injury in the regular season .. this is one durable guy .
I think it is fair to wait a week or so after the weddings and the GM announcement before getting too worried about Leon’s contract situation.
If we run into mid August without a deal done or good news leaking out about them being close, then there will be a collective sigh and we will get to discussing the possibilities of trade etc.
I think things have been going so well that nobody wants to be a buzz kill. Yet.
Do you know when the weddings are?
Connor’s is July 27th.
Haven’t heard an announcement about Leon’s, he only just got engaged July 11th.
Thanks. I’ll order my tux
Random though – when they’re naming arenas these days, not insisting on ‘Arena’, ‘Coliseum’, or ‘Stadium’ is weak.
Rogers Coliseum would have been so much better as an example.
‘Place’ is a ridiculous thing to call these buildings.
Agreed. Keep the history in place and visible or it gets lost, it’s hard to build tradition without the history
I like ‘Gardens’. Horse have left the barn on this already though (I like Barn)
Gardens would be too Maple Leafish
Boston, Madison Square, hell even the Edmonton Gardens previously, etc. Much more than MLG.
Did Northlands retain the rights to the name of Coliseum (at least in town)? It’s physically still standing, so there might have been some issues in that regard.
Not that it would have been an overly difficult deal to consummate with a little imagination.
Nope – if you remember it was briefly the ‘Edmonton Coliseum’ as well, but that term was absolutely available to be used.
Not gonna happen. People would default to “The Coliseum” rather than “Insert Corporate Name Here Place/Arena”. Heck, many folks simply refer to Edmonton’s arena as “Rogers”.
Scotiabank made this mistake with the Saddledome & it won’t happen again.
Money – the word that so often explains the inexplicable.
Rogers is paying millioins of dollars so people will call it Rogers, and NOT the Coliseum without the Rogers.
Air Canada learned this in Toronto when they began calling it the ACC…literally millions of dollars down the drain.
I virtually never comment, but I have an idea to throw out there. If (IF IF IF) Larsson would consider returning to Edmonton again after his personal need to get away, what would it take for Seattle to send him here and take Kulak in return? What do we need to add to that package? Love Kulak, but that gets Broberg back on his proper side, and give us an incredible lift on RD. If we sent Kulak and Savoie, would that entice Seattle to send us Larsson with some $ retained? I’m trying to be realistic about a trade offer that Seattle would actually entertain…
I don’t think Larsson has much value at this time of year. IF he would come and was seen as an upgrade on Ceci which I’m not sure the team actually thinks, Seattle would need a RD, so Ceci and a lower prospect or pick. I wouldn’t add Savoie I think it’s too much. I’m not sure why Seattle would though
I like Larsson but not at that price. Already paid too much for him the first time around.
1-for-1 and now a 2-for-1.
Also, please keep sharing your ideas if you like to. If people don’t agree or counter that’s ok. Everyone’s comments and thoughts keep things fresh and interesting
Larsson would be great but that is much too high a price for him at this point.
A vast over-pay for an impending UFA. I’d take that deal in a minute if I was SEA.
I don’t see any way to get an impactful RD without trading Nurse, and if that’s impossible, then Kulak is the obvious piece to move for cap room since we are 4 deep on the left side.
I’d rather have Kulak and play Broberg on the right side, than trade Kulak for Larsson.
If he’s not taking a discount or at least a win-win deal (in which case presumably neither would McD and Bouch), how can the team can remain a legitimate contender without the necessary cap space for Cup-calibre depth and defense?
Obviously Drai would want to hear the new GM’s vision and plan, but not sure anyone could sell it better than JJ’s done over the last year/month from a roster-building/cap mgmt perspective.
Maybe he is willing to explore a fair deal and therefore he and JJ are comfy waiting for the new GM. If he wasn’t willing, I’d be trading him before everyone’s summer rosters are set.
I won’t entertain the idea of trading Draisaitl
I think the Draisaitl deal will definitely get done. I can’t imagine the new GM comes in and his first move is to trade Leon away. He’d never recover the fans’ trust.
The current lack of a GM (along with McDavid’s wedding) is buying some time for everyone involved. But I’m pretty confident in saying we won’t love this contract as much as his last one.
Maybe I’m an eternal optimist, but I feel like the big three amigos are going to take actual discounts to ensure the team remains competitive.
They’re so close they can taste it (defeat is awful bitter), and JJ really has negotiating chops (and don’t doubt he choses someone who can broker a deal too).
I’ve not thought much about a Draisaitl trade because it feels like disaster, especially after how close they came last season. I remain hopeful but am on alert until it happens.
The debate I had with a friend at start of summer was about value (1) Do other teams see this as trading for Leon Draisaitl full stop or as trading for him as a rental? (2) Are the Oilers also trading away their chance at a Stanley Cup this season?
Losing him for nothing is impossible to fathom but if the value is closer to rental prices is it worth trading away a chance at Stanley this year?
You have to trade him, you cannot lose him for nothing. It would be terrible to lose him but worse to lose him for nothing.
Aa far as trade destinations:
Was thinking about utah as a place that might want to make a big splash and easily have room for a big contract next season. Gives them a superstar.
They have a ton of players drafted center in order of value (factoring a win now):
1. Nick Smaltz RHC (ufa 26-27)
– 28 yrs
– big
– attainable in package geared towards including better defenseman/picks/prospects
2. Logan Cooley LHC (entry deal)
– 20 yrs
– undersized but super skilled
– be suprised if willing to trade and be centerpiece of package. You’d have to want him first amd foremost
3. Kerfoot? LHC (ufa 25-26)
– at least plug and play easy throw in
4a. Best prospect center: cole beaudin LHC 2024 24th overall
4b a whole load of at leaat nhl caliber players varying age listed as centers throw in level add (bjugstad, stenlund, mcbain, obrien)
RHD
Durzi
Marino
Kesselring
Prospect: maverick lamoreux
– #4 rated prospect in aystem
– huge
– injury concerns
LHD
Sergachev
Valimaki
Prospect: dmitri smashev
– #1 rated prospect in system
– monster
Wingers of note
Keller RW – not happening
Crouse LW – could see moved but LW not overly place id be aiming to expend much value of return in
Prospect
Tij iginla LW – 6th overall 2024
Daniil but Rw – 12th overall 2023
Enough pieces in there to make a package and space to easily sign him long
Smaltz
Marino/durzi
Daniil but
Drai
Ceci
Some balance of picks?
To me thats in range unsigned if sign and trade not sure what valuation might have…
Smashev?
Greatest name ever.
Principe’s brain would break with all the possible puns.
Hes a monster 19 yrs old 6’5″ 203 lbs – mobile, solid defense, offensive upside.
If bigger deal with nurse sonehow in there id probably be getting him back.
The rhd prospect 20 yrs old 6’7″ 214 lbs.
Daniil on RW really aeems interesting to me the power forward. 19 yrs old 6’6″ 216 lbs. Goes to hard areas.
Like if drai is often loaded up on RW adding this kid and smaltz (solid 2C IMO) with upgrade of RHD included is in range of value.
Savoie
But
Lavoie
RW prospect strength (area of need sooner than later for value top 6 type duty….top 2 might be exactly that.
Nuge mcdavid hyman
Ardvisson/kane smaltz skinner
Holloway henrique brown
Janmark X Y
Ekholm bouchard
Nurse durzi/marino/bro
Kulak broberg/marino
I think skinner could fill a decent amount of PP1 production replacing drai this year.
I think at least possible and enough there aa far as pieces coming back
Leon has a 10 team list, it would be hard to get full value it seems. He’s 28 and probably extended to 36, so I expect if he’s ever dealt it would be in year 6 or 7 of the next contract
I also don’t think he wants to go anywhere, so those 10 teams will not be the better ones to deal with
Yup. Its just value return level thing utah seemed to have pieces.
I love drai but trying to find center that could cover solid top 9 for a few years and upgrade RHD if i having to move hpw to rebalance and possibly be better aligned.
Again at least this year im pretty sure skinner could do solid damage on what remains if that PP1 setup.
Interesting, when I was looking at Stamkos’ contracts I saw his career earnings are ~117M
Connor is already at ~92M. Wow
For me, I do not bother discussing Drai not resigning because it would be a disaster. No real way for the Oilers to win if Drai does not want to play here.
If his ask is in line they will do it. And if it is it will be for 8 to maximize the contract amount which seems to be what the players and agents focus on as opposed to yearly salary going by how they refer to it
The best thing for the team is ~ 5 years and they trade him before it’s up and before he’s done playing at a high enough level. That is how you stay competitive, some team is always up for buying the rep of the player as opposed to where they are at. Rarely happens though
And for sure if they can’t get it done they have to bite the bullet and move him, you can’t evaporate that value and hope for the best in free agency. Yes the cap space has value, but not as much what Leon has
One thing that recommends Darche as GM to me is that Tampa let Stamkos walk (although ideally they should have traded him but he had a NMC and wasn’t likely to waive). He is still productive but his fancies aren’t great. He isn’t playing top comp and is leaky. That was the right call for the team. That kind of steel appeals to me, couldn’t have been easy, but life goes on and Steve is just fine in Nashville
I don’t know if people who have never been in charge realize how rare it is to find people who are in charge that do what is best for the organization they are supposed to be looking after; as opposed to those who are in charge who do what is easiest or best for themselves.
It is relatively rare in my experience and, as you say, requires steel in a world where most often that is an undervalued commodity.
Especially in the NHL. Other sports regularly move high end players. It seems emotional in hockey. We all love our faves, but really people love a winning team more. Or most people anyway
I was thinking of business and politics in particular since I don’t follow other sports all that much anymore. I don’t think it is emotional though. I think it is putting themselves ahead of the team in most cases knowing that if they make the hard decision it is easier for the owner to discard them to appease the fan base and deflect blame from himself.
Human nature. It ain’t what it could be. 🥸
Politics especially these days
Agree here. You HAVE to get some value back, if they have to trade do it. Pretty sure he is signing though haha… yes def a 4-5 yr deal would be great but likely wont happen, seems like shorter contracts are trending a bit now so maybe. I then looked at Leons age and wondered if he would do a 5… likely a 3 would be better for him so he is a bit younger at the end.