This was the look of the Edmonton Oilers roster about one year ago as things hurtled toward training camp. It’s always fascinating to look back at the names and recall what happened next. Sam Gagner, Brandon Sutter, Adam Erne, all names who were discussed as possible Oilers in 2023-24. You never know what the TC roster is going to look like. Yesterday, Oilers general manager Stan Bowman made two astute moves that could save both Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway from the St. Louis Blues. A summer of headlines added another late Sunday night.
THE TWO NEW DUDES
Everyone is going to have their own takes on these two new names, I’m going to give you mine and I’d love to read what you think fo each man.
Ty Emberson is the better player to my eye, he posted strong numbers in San Jose relative to other Sharks defensemen. I know Corsi Rel is Satan the devil to many people, but I remain a Satanist to this day in this area. Emberson is just below par in Corsi Rel, a little above sea level in Fenwick Rel and doing well in Shots Rel, Goals Rel and Expected Goals Rel at five-on-five (via Natural Stat Trick).
Puck IQ is ’40 miles of bad road’ for defensemen, if you’re bad then Puck IQ shines a light so bright you cannot escape it. Emberson played 32 percent of his five-on-five minutes versus elites last season, that’s aggressive for such an inexperienced player. His DFF percentage versus elites (in 160 minutes) was 46.8, 10.6 percent better relative to his fellow Sharks blue. Music!
I’m a big fan of this deal. Emberson is 6.01, 195 and a young man (24) with just 30 games of NHL experience. I think he would land behind Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Troy Stecher and Joshua Brown entering camp, but my money is on him making the team and emerging as Brett Kulak’s defensive partner.
Vasily Podkolzin is better known to us, with a more prominent resume due to his NHL time with the Vancouver Canucks. He is 23, has terrific speed and is not progressing in the same manner as Dylan Holloway. Most of his scoring and outscoring numbers at five-on-five have fallen off from his rookie season (via Natural Stat Trick) and I wonder if the organization believes there’s a tweak in his game that will unlock Podkolzin. His career path is somewhat similar to Kailer Yamamoto, although at a lower spot on the bell curve. He did have some chem with Nils Hoglander and Bo Horvat at times on the left coast, and his foot speed will be attractive to the Oilers. I don’t think he’s better than Mattias Janmark, so if Holloway lands in St. Louis, expect the Swedish Wonder to play on the No. 3 line.
This will be the subject of the Lowdown today on Sports 1440. Will the Oilers match? My guess is yes on both. How good a day did Stan Bowman have yesterday? I will say very good. We’ll break it all down today on the Lowdown at noon. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
A fellow I spoke to this morning says his brother in law is a NYR scout. The scout doesn’t think Bro has much hockey sense, and that they did the right thing not matching. I guess we’ll find out this season. If he’s right then I guess the Oilers saw the same thing
I would’ve preferred the other Fischer in St.Louis. 2024 2nd round pick Lukas Fischer 6’3 almost latest possible bday to be eligible for this draft (Sept) who had a half ppg in Sarnia.
Paul Fischer is 6′ 2023 5th rounder plays at ND and was on the USA summer showcase team so not a nothing prospect but certainly no stud.
Not that they were negotiating from strength, just interesting the names lined up
Dylan Holloway had a nice face and a cool name. I’ll miss his Mr. Peanut Butter energy.
Sail on, Badger.
I understand not matching either offer, as frustrating as it is.
I am somewhat confused with the decisions on D though; why trade Ceci if they weren’t matching on Bro?
As of right now, they’d group is substantially worse than it was last season. Now we wait, watch and cross our fingers.
Ceci isn’t remotely good enough. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.
Yawn
We are worse on D right now, we’ve lost 3 of our d. But Godot is right, we need to clear some space to let someone else in.
Why trade Ceci when we did? Curious timing no? Almost like a fake out to Armstrong. Or are we trying to get something else done? Or is it just that the offseason is over for gms and people are back in the office?
Cap flexibility for in-season and to allow themselves to at least threaten STL that they’ll match the OS and get a bit extra in return (the 3rd and Fischer for FC). Maybe they also think Emberson is a better fit than Ceci, too.
A 2nd two 3rds and Fischer for Bro and Holloway. That is ‘more’ reasonable
Messing around with the cap through all of this it seemed a trade had to happen regardless to get to a manageable cap situation
The “[d group] is substantially worse than it was last season.”
Really? I liked Bro, liked him a lot. But he had what, five games in the playoffs in the top 4. Emerson could be better than Bro right now for all we know.
My take is he will be as good at RD as Bro. If Bro is LD Emb is a few levels below
Though the D is much deeper now down through the org
Paul Fischer is now an Oiler along with a 2028 3rd rounder.
A prospect bio which highlights his skating as a major asset.
https://thehockeywriters.com/paul-fischer-2023-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/
Fischer is unsigned at the moment.
Interesting. Looks like Bowman leveraged something out of them being in a position to match
So JJ and SB were able to extract a bit more from St. Louis. Fischer’a expected arrival time in two to three years fits the gap the Oilers have in LD prospects. And right when the Oilers will be transitioning away from Ekholm and Kulak.
So the Oilers get a 2nd, two 3rds, and a 5th in compensation.
The scouting report on the kid isn’t bad. Was projecting maybe 2nd/3rd round but dropped in the draft.
Decent first year at Notre Dame, 3rd on D in scoring but the top two were senior seniors (24) and are now in the AHL. Can’t say I following NCAA too close but looks like the door is open for him this year.
Gotta sign him though.
For sure. He is a similar player to Bro, a little shorter, more physical. Great skater
I think not matching was likely the right decision. The contracts were absurd.
That said, the Oilers continue to be a team that bleeds emerging talent.
Declined!!!
Cap space and big game hunting!
https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1825885463455912029
Both Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway have been informed they are St. Louis Blues. Oilers do not match.
One thing I believe is key here: Edmonton wants flexibility to add in-season.
Tsn reporting we have decided not to match.
https://x.com/andystrickland/status/1825883367826391253
Told the original offers from the Oilers to Phillip Broberg was a 2 year deal with an AAV of $1.1 million. The offer on the table from Edmonton to Dylan Holloway is believed to have been a 3 year deal at $1.050 million. #LetsgoOilers #stlblues
That offer to Holloway is an abomination. An absolute insult. Based on term. Asking that he give up two years of arbitration.
I for one look forward to seeing Jeff Skinner pot 50 while Holloway plays less than 50 games with the Blues.
Over/Under on Skinner lapping Holloway’s career points by U.S. Thanksgiving?
Is it an insult? To me it looks like 1 year longer than exactly the kind of contract he should expect to sign. Unless you presume EDM was completely unwilling to negotiate then I don’t see how this is anything other than a standard approach.
Given they traded Ceci anyway, I would have preferred they did that and get close to the ask and trade them if they didn’t want to keep them now or later
Pod for Holloway is likely a wash, losing Bro for a 2nd to me a loss of team equity
When others were championing that the Oilers would sign both for just over $2M I was saying that Broberg will not sign for less than the $1.7M AAV of his expired contract. Interesting that the reported ask was $1.8M. Seems the Oilers aren’t that high on Broberg, for whatever reason.
https://x.com/andystrickland/status/1825882666132029566
The #stlblues were one of three #NHL teams prepared to sign Philip Broberg to an offer sheet
That’s an indictment of current/past management. This wasn’t just STL. Other teams knew our history with him, and our cap crunch.
Other than this, I think the current regime has been stellar, including the three moves of Sunday to today. And even on this loss, partial blame is with Holland. And partial ‘blame’ is with the unlikely fortune that all 6 D were healthy this past year, thus blocking Broberg. (Presumably we weren’t going to sit a productive Vinny just because Broberg needed at-bats.)
Hurry up JJ we have to know.
I wonder if tomorrow we see a big trade after acquiring these picks. This management team has shown they aren’t afraid to make moves and also have zero loyalties to players, including 9 million dollar defensemen
Nurse and his NMC aren’t going anywhere, if that’s what you’re suggesting.
Nurse, I promise you the winters in San Jose are nice!
Before I was leaning to match Holloway and not Broberg but with the Podkolzin trade I’d probably let both walk, start the season with Kane and Savoie on the roster, then LTIR/demore them on day 2 and accrue very valuable cap space that should be able to get a really nice 2RD.
Broberg has a high ceiling but it’s just too risky to count on him to play top 4 on his off side at that price point because if it doesn’t work out the team is painted into a corner.
That said I’ll be more or less ok with any outcome, I don’t think it’s an easy call.
Which “really nice RHD” do you think is available for less than $5 million. We’ve been down this road a million times. You can’t just click your heels and make Brett Pesce appear.
Can’t accrue cap in LTIR.
The team would be under the cap by opening day even with Kane on the roster if they choose not to match both, thus meaning they would accrue cap space from LTIRing Kane.
If Kane is on IR, the Oilers can accrue cap space if they are below the cap.
If Kane is on LTIR, the Oilers cannot accrue cap space. Kane on LTIR makes $5 million or so cap space available while he is on LTIR.
Oilers don’t have to announce anything.
Let time expire, shrug shoulders, go back to work.
They don’t have to announce something they are not going to do. Walk away, nothing to say.
FWIW
@2MuttsHockeyPod
We are hearing the Oilers won’t match the offer sheets on both Dylan Holloway & Philip Broberg, all signs point to them joining the Blues organization at 8:30am CST tomorrow morning.
It will be interesting to see if things change, it sounds like the Oilers aren’t matching because they are working on some other moves.
Adding these draft picks is key because they don’t have a lot of picks in 2025.
This could all change on a dime as we all know, So we shall see how everything plays out tomorrow though
https://x.com/2MuttsHockeyPod/status/1825740791861620895
Broberg and Holloway…
https://youtu.be/4lmW2tZP2kU?si=hJNckjflQRBMPixB
Don’t match baby!
https://www.soundonsound.com/news/story-behind-acdcs-hells-bell
“Hell’s Bell
It was a ‘standard’ bronze Taylor bell tuned to E (A=440Hz), which measured 48 inches in diameter and would normally weigh close to 1 UK ton, or 2240lbs (not a US ton of 2000lbs). This was the largest bell that we could make in the tight delivery period — it was ordered seven weeks before the recording was due to take place. With the addition of the large logo, the finished bell weighed 1.03 UK tons (2318lbs / 1051kg). The assertion that the bell weighed 1300kg — which has been quoted as fact by one author fairly recently — was in fact the gross weight of both the bell and its shipping/flight case; the case was clearly labelled “GR.WT. 1300 kg” for the benefit of people who needed to move it! This was not considered to be a big bell for Taylor’s, who’d made a 10-ton version in 1992. It was always agreed that in the recording studio the note E could be dropped down in pitch to the note they wanted. A big bell tuned to C had been suggested initially, but was impossible to produce in seven weeks, and AC/DC thought that the finished weight of two tons was far too heavy to hang from a gantry.”
729 tomorrow we find out both will be let go.
And a Drai extension will be announced soon
A Drai extension heals all wounds
In Stanley we trust!
I love the slow play, fu Armstrong, sleep tight
Just set a couple alarm clocks. And don’t mess up the volume or the AM/PM
https://www.reddit.com/r/seinfeld/comments/wr73u1/man_it_wasnt_the_ampm_it_was_the_volume/
This is where having a JJ could pay off. The following is just speculation mind you…
What if this is a double FU?
The Blues would have a backup plan for the Oilers matching. Would they have any better plan B than Podkolzin and Emberson? Would JJ with his connections know what other options the Blues would have available? I think that’s a reasonable proposition.
And then the Oil, after using that Blues backup plan to dump salary, ALSO match.
The exit ramps are blockaded and the Blues are down to Plan C, if they have one.
Don’t know if all that’s true, and it remains to be seen whether or not the Oil do match, but it makes for a nice revenge plot to dream about till the rooster crows tomorrow am.
I will add that while we are taking numbers lets not forget that Dubas knew very well what Armstrong was planning when he phoned to get his own draft pick back.
Dubas was an accessory in this.
That’s a really good point.
*updates revenge spreadsheet*
Thank you.
Just business, eh?. 😎
This loss of value by Armstrong in that transaction is precisely why I posted the graphic from PuckPedia about the relative value exchange.
Armstrong gave up assets to be able to make this gamble.
Not necessarily. Divulging that information would have made that pick far more valuable
Downgrading a 3rd to a 5th?
To get that specific draft pick back? If Dubas knew how important that specific pick was going to be that he had a monopoly on, and all he got was a marginal % increase of getting an nhl player from that trivial round upgrade, the joke is on him and we should all pity his stupidity.
You are forgetting the Hyman episode.
Yes, it was Holland. Yes, it was also the Oilers.
If you think GM’s of multimillion dollar businesses should be above taking things personally, OK.
It was not my experience with competitive people.
Payback for Hyman.
I hope we’re taking a number here.
A solid point, to be sure. But why is it JJ, and not Bowman pulling these strings — in your speculation?
Apologies as I’m sure this has been talked about ad nauseum, but I’m curious that if we match Broberg I know we cannot trade him for a year, however I’m wondering what the rules are if we retain him and he shits the bed, can we send him to the minors, and of so, would it still be his full cap hit while he’s down there?
They can send him down but he would have to clear waivers which I think is unlikely. The cap hit would be somewhere around $1.15M less than with him in the NHL.
I agree, but if we’re sending him down to the minors, something has gone terribly wrong and he may well clear in that scenario…
Normally I read LT in the morning and check back once or twice in the evening to catch up on the comments. Today I think I’ve refreshed this and ON about 18 times each, just waiting for the other shoe to drop. This is like the playoffs for couch GMs. You can’t make up a more dramatic off-season with all of the ups and downs.
Good on St Loo for making this interesting, but I want this to be over already!
Paul Coffey as we all know is an offensive defence savant. He needs time with this kid, closest to Klefbom I have seen in years. Take pressure off nurse and let them be great tandem. Truly believe nurse can be great if he is asked not to do everything, don’t mind 2 big mobile defenceman as our 2nd pair. There may be growing pains, but hey we play 82 to figure that out.
personally I don’t mind giving a 10 overall a new chance. Ceci was great, that pass was rewindable all day. However, i believe he ran his course as a stop gap. Broberg needs to be brought back, no player on that team is going to be mad about the money as that’s what he offered. Either blues wanted to mess with us or as a multi-million company they thought or saw something that we all see. I’m guessing the latter. I honestly believe we saw what he could do when it mattered most. Sign Broberg please and let Hollywood fly. He is a great player I hope the best for him…in reality he is a dime a dozen in this nhl.
They gonna run out the clock aren’t they
Making the Blues stew in it for as long as possible.
The Blues are going to regret this.
I think Holloway as well.
In the last 6 days we’ve read a 100 or more different scenarios on what the Oilers should do. The vast majority make sense even though they’re wildly different or mildly different. Tells me this is a very difficult decision. I myself have flip flopped many times. I’m basically prepared to accept the outcome as I just don’t know what the correct answer is if there even is one.
There’s a much different feel to how the Oilers management operate now.
Even under the Holland era, there were plenty of moves that were obvious blunders even contemporaneously like the Kassian contract (Chiasson too), or just contracts like Campbell where if I am being honest, I didn’t quite know how it would turn out when it was signed, but could plainly see that the Oilers were taking a lot of unnecessary risk in the deal.
With Broberg, it’s interesting.
There’s risk on both sides. If you match, you’ve now got an unproven player at a big cap hit for two more years, including one that’s left handed (when you need a righty). It’s also a player whom you can’t trade away for a period of time.
If you don’t match, well now you’re certainly short of having 4 top-four defenseman with no obvious solution in sight. You’ve also lost a player while getting poorly compensated in the process.
The smartest managed teams eschew taking on bad cap above all else including valuing cap space above draft picks or other assets.
These are interesting times.
it’s definitely interesting times
I’ve been wanting the Oilers to shop in the emerging player aisle for years.
With Holland, if you only deal in vets, you pay in full in cap and trade assets every time. Your team also gets old really fast.
Hopefully, Emberson is the next Ryan Graves.
Completely agree but again point out that Holland took over the team in a completely different spot.
Pretty sure the mandate was to get the team competitive as quickly as possible and that usually means vets no matter the overpay costs.
And, yes, that does have the repercussions we are currently witnessing.
There are different degrees of shopping in the emerging player aisle.
There’s taking a flyer like we’re doing now with Podkolzin and Emberson, but there are also lots of high-end younger players that have moved teams while Holland was a GM.
Often these players are outside of their team’s contention window.
Holland only deals in old vets.
We’ve seen lots of good young players move teams while Holland was a GM. Kirby Dach. Sam Reinhart. Sam Bennett. Sean Durzi. Arturri Lehkonen, Casey MIttlestadt, Devon Toews, Jonas Siegenthaler, etc.
I’d settle for the next Zub or Mayfield.
I guess I just don’t see much risk with Bro. I see no reason for his complete domination of the A not to translate into competent play in the bigs, and that’s with miles and miles of road still ahead of him. I keep him no question. But…
What if they let both walk and that provides the room for acquiring an unheralded RHD Ekholm this season before the playoffs? I guess I feel that proposition is pretty iffy, whereas Bro I consider close to a sure thing.
Broberg has such a high ceiling I’d match
The risk with Bro is roster fit. If he doesn’t work at 2RD, the Oilers will have put themselves in a Chinese finger trap.
Broberg not filling the hole at 2RD at a reasonable cap is a lot different than the same issue with a $4.6m cap hit.
You’re going to have to find a taker for Kulak, move Broberg to the bottom pairing, then you’ll still have no cap space to fix 2RD.
Yeah this is where I am at (and why it’s a shame KK did not test drive Bro more during the regular season). I think Bro will have a decent career at LHD. I am not convinced he is a lock to be a top-4 RHD.
Well, he’s clearly no Brogan Rafferty.
Personally I match, because I feel like the risk of Bro not making it as 2RD is lower than the risk of walking Bro and not being able to find a competent replacement at a reasonable price.
“There’s risk on both sides…”
With the upcoming colossal contracts for 29, 2, 97 the margin for error is nil when it comes to the cap. So maybe the risk is greater on the cap side as opposed to the talent side. If they don’t match tomorrow, this will send the message of how they view risk assessment and salary. The “middle class” will be hollowed out.
I love that the Oilers are hunting talent. I think these pick ups are opportunity based with an eye to the future. Play or trade, but develop youth than can arrive soon.
regardless of offer sheets, these latest pick ups smell similar to Savoie and Jarventie
sear hung for more speed, more youth, is a smart play.
I think the Oiler really like Holloway and will go the extra salary.
I think they are choking on Brobergs price. They want him but he made a selfish move, and they are not convinced of his value at that cap.
Kanes injury is purposely vague, which is a good move.
Oilers decide to
A. Match both players
B. Match Broberg
C. Match Holloway
D. No match
No idea no more lol
D. No match
maybe B. Match Broberg
No match
banking cap space
Correct. Stop gap until you identify then acquire the right fit for the price tag.
B
The Oilers management has set it up so they have every option on the table. It cost a few picks and Ceci’s anchor contract but it shows what a creative mindset can achieve.
*****
It drastically puts into contrast how Holland sleepwalked through his tenure…
Nurse coming off his ELC? Just kick the can down and bridge deal him instead of proactively signing him at a discount long term deal. What? The bridge deal is done and we have to sign him at full fare because we have no Top 4 LD depth or leverage? Alrighty! $9.25MM/yr to you!
Hey this Bouchard kid is looking promising, why don’t we bridge deal him too and re-sign Kassian to a bloated deal instead. Oh hey? Look Bouchard is coming off his bridge deal next year, guess we gotta sign him at full fare $10MM+/yr too since we have no Top 4 RD depth or leverage….
This is simply an over-simplification bordering on narrative driving, no?
At the time of each bridge deal mentioned, the Oilers were expected to push for contender status and had minimal cap room to set the roster. If either bridge deal was flipped to a long term deal in would have vastly decreased cap space in the “hear and now” and weakened the roster at the time.
There are pros and cons to these decisions.
Didn’t Jackson/Bowman just kick the can down the road on the two RFAs until they got screwed? I guess they were “sleepwalking”, right?
A.
If they are striving for best in class, they add to this age group, not subtract. I have hope the Bowman learned his lessons from when he did not value the young talent that he quickly traded away for veteran players.
A best in class managed team incorporates succession planning.
The cap doesn’t concern me anymore, correct decisions are being made in real-time. I expect it to continue.
I want B and fear D.
A. Match both players. Broberg, under Coffey’s tutelage, is too good to pass up as a prospect. If we lose him, he will be what the team is yearning for in the next few years. Holloway is a top-notch energy forward even if he is shy on the scoresheet. I would keep that energy on the team, if possible. Find other players, if need be, who are expendable.
Option B is B.
D.
C.
I was torn between C and D here.
With the Holloway contract, the only risk is maybe a negative million in value per year x 2 years (Based on Dom’s player cards.)
With Broberg, there’s a risk of his contract having a -$3.8m value per year x2 years that’s only mitigated by some seen him good (bottom-pairing) minutes during a PDO heater during the playoffs.
I think the risk of Broberg only being a $1MM player is very very slim.
He was NHL ready a year and a half ago, excelling as 3LD for 15 games until Woody and Manson (and Holland) ruined the progression.
I, like many, saw Broberg very very good during last year’s playoffs. He was a smooth skating guy who looked very competent in 10 playoff games.
Still, he played 15:47 per night which was a minute an half less than Desharnais, a guy they let walk. (also the least amount of toi/g among d on the team)
During the regular season, he averaged ten minutes per game at 5v5 or around 3.5 minutes less per game than Desharnais.
His DFF against elites trailed the entire team.
Broberg put up half a point per hour at 5v5 over 12 games during the regular season.
When I temper my ‘saw him good’ during the playoffs against actual numbers I trust like TOI, it gives me pause on the player.
If I am the person asking myself if I am going to pay a guy who averaged under 12 minutes during the regular season and 16 minutes per game during the playoffs, $4.6m x 2 years, it’s not a no-brainer of a decision.
If you match that offer sheet, you’re in a position that’s entirely speculative, not based on any real numbers.
We’ll know it all in about 8 hours. It’s been an interesting & educational week around here for sure.
This is one of your best posts ever, IMO.
It tells you what KK thinks of Bro and I believe that will be the key play in the final decision.
Deleting twitter was great for my brain but I definitely miss it for hockey gossip.
Ditto. Although the hockey gossip was mixed with a lot of trash talk and it wasn’t anything I couldn’t get off sports sites. I most miss JFresh and Lowetide on hockey twitter, if I’m being honest
I don’t regret deleting Twitter and never will. I do miss interacting with a lot of the people from the Oilogosphere that I got to know though. The playoff run was kind of lonely.
LT’s blog spawned a lot of very big brained conversations with very little, if any, name calling. And never any politics.
This is why I’ve come back.
Agreed. LT is great. There are a few insufferable posters (me) but overall high quality convo.
— My Twitter feed got hacked a few years ago and suspended. I “applied for reinstatement” and my appeal got lost in some chat bot help desk vortex. Never looked back.
Reddit is a good source for hockey news as the subreddits post the breaking news. And you get to see all of the other NHL fans reactions too it as well.
If the Oilers do not sign Broberg they have to trade for another dman before the season starts, right?
A RHD depth chart of Bouch, Stretcher, Emberson, and Brown is dismal.
If the Oilers walk away and take the picks, Would Larsson from Seattle entertain a return, maybe they retain a bit?? They did sign Montour so he slides down. Would he pair up well with Nurse?
Larsson does not want to play in Edmonton. His numbers with Nurse were not good. Larsson is not happening.
I wasn’t sure so thought to ask.
Thanks
Their numbers were very good together in 2017/18 – in over 800 minutes (56% goal share).
Ceci’s first year numbers with Nurse were also encouraging.
These ships have sailed.
This could be the new Oilers. Pay the elite players. Keep the rest short term and money puck speculation.
The longer there is no announcement the less likely it is the Oilers sign either player, right?
Make ’em sweat.
They are likely just waiting until the last minute to eff with the Blues (hopefully they’ve let the players know if they are keeping them) but, ya, I don’t disagree.
Truth be told, the Oilers don’t have to do anything. These players have signed contracts with the Blues – the Oilers have a period of one week to exercise their ROFR and, if they just do nothing, that expires and the contracts remain with the Blues.
JFresh
@JFreshHockey
·
20h
Jack Michaels on tomorrow’s Spittin’ Chicklets episode!
Whats ironic is if both get walked and Emberson gets a real shot out of camp parked with Nurse he’ll have gotten the exact same chance we wanted for Bro all last year with significantly less pedigree.
But, Bro doesn’t want to play the Right side ideally? Or no?
The Oilers didn’t give Broberg the choice to play the right side last year. They gave him the choice of the pressbox or Bakersfield. I am pretty sure he would have been happy to play the right side in Edmonton, given the other options.
This summer the Oilers put a jackboot to his throat and said sign for two years at a million or else. And you will be playing on the right side with no power play tim. And St. Louis said, come play for us on the left side, probably in the top four, with either Parayko or Faulk, for $4.5 million. You will be given a chance to compete for power play quarterback.
i.e. Consider the context.
Bro’s gone. So is Holloway.
Bro is too risky for the price tag. I would like to see Holloway matched and then waived off to San Jose.
Unless Broberg finishes the season on LTIR, there is a cheap out to his contract after next season.
Why in the world would anyone want Holloway matched and then waived – give up the 3rd round for nothing – there are no “waivers” side deals going on with SJ.
You think the 3rd has more value than letting Armstrong and the league know that the team will defend itself from these kind of offers.
But there are a lot of businessmen who would take the loss to make that point. I know you wouldn’t but people who build businesses or run them think differently about what their reputation means and would balk at being seen as having been taken advantage of.
You find different personalities at the top imo.
I’d like to know how you found out the Oilers offer that you state as fact…..?
Oilers will have over $6M in cap space if they don’t match both of Holloway & Broberg and with Kane on LTIR. With 12 forwards, 7 defensemen & 2 goalies.
— They aren’t going into the season down Ceci Brah and Halloway and replace them with a waiver wire pick an AHLr and a smorgasbord of 1mm pick ups resigns retreads and hope they can coach them up IMO.
Who said they are? You?
I think he said they are not.
— it’s in the context of what happens tmrw and tempering some of the “accolades” for these manoeuvres.
— Each of the recent transactions have merit but they can’t / won’t go into the season with material downgrades on Brahoway and Ceci.
— If both players leave plus Ceci gone they are materially worse than a week ago and this seems to be brushed under rug by some.
— None of the pickups are upgrades on those 3 unless your really squinting hard and lots of koolaide
— we will have a better idea tmrw.
— would be awesome if they let them both go and go get gooder guys with the cap space trades or whatever.
— But they certainly have increased their optionality this week which is promising
I was stating facts. I don’t know what jibberish you’re going on about .
— Huh? I’m merely surmising that should they end up with that extra space by not matching (which I hope) they aren’t going into the season with that cap space.
— And while the moves in the last 6 days are creative and appear well thought out, it doesn’t take away from the fact that they are not as good a roster as they were a week ago.
— Not sure what you take offence to or claim is jibberish…
The Oilers will have over $6M in cap space with Kane on LTIR and with no match. It’s a fact. Take it for what it’s worth. It’s a consideration, plus it opens up trade options to improve the roster further. There’s plenty of options flying around this is one more.
— No one disputes the cap space if they don’t sign them.
— Very confused for why you go off though. I add that it’s my opinion they can’t/wont start season with this cap space and the team isn’t as good as a week ago. Your reply mentions some of the things I suggested: more moves flexibility etc. Strange to go off then paraphrase my points.
— What is jibberish?
A week ago neither Holloway nor Broberg had a current contract.
The roster has technically improved.
— a week ago they were both on the roster.
— Today they are are the property of the Blues. : And it they don’t match they got a 2nd and 3rd – and down Ceci: how is that better?
— We will see how it plays out. Signed to their current contracts they are also not better
I think they’re going to try for Barrie on a PTO. He’ll come because he didn’t want to be traded away and has a lot of friends in Edmonton.
Barrie seems like a no brainer imo, if Gord forbid anything was to happen to Bouch, Barrie could slide in and keep the PP humming.
Darnell Nurse could slide in and keep the PP humming as well.
Yea absolutely not.
There’s a reason Barrie is unsigned and it’s because he is brutal defensively.
Justin Schultz us likely a better bet.
Let’s go all in on offence Eighties style. I see 45-50 more goals scored this season. The Oilers are going to steamroll its way to the Cup. The Refs will be giving the Oilers way more respect. I foresee a huge uptick in PP opportunities.
Podkolzin with a great attitude:
“I’ve been in Vancouver for two weeks now. I had a settled life here, but the NHL is a business, and a trade can happen anytime. This trade is a good opportunity for me as a player. I want to play and win as much as possible; that’s the main thing. I’ll be flying to Edmonton soon, I think in two weeks. Now, my wife and I will sort out all the daily issues in Vancouver, and then we’ll get ready for the new place.”
“Of course, I was shocked by the trade,” Podkolzin admitted. “After all, this is the first such experience in my career. Now I’ve realized it. I want to continue preparing for the season and arrive at the new team in good shape. It’s important to fit in; Edmonton is assembling a good team. I hope I can help them win.
https://rg.org/news/hockey/podkolzin-was-on-his-was-to-furniture-store-when-he-learned-about-trade-to-oilers
I like this kid already.
Defensivsly conscious with bark could he be a fit on Leon’s line.
If they match, I looked at the 26-27 cap situation. Perhaps Defmn or someone interested will come to a different result which is great, but what I came up with was based on Leon, Connor and Bouch not going nuts – 13,15,9, Bro at 5.5, Holloway at 4, Ek sticking around at 2, the cap at 98M. Hyman Nuge Janmark Nurse and J Brown still under contract
That left about 30M with 6F and 5D, 11 players signed, no goalies. 4 top 6 F and 3 top 4 D as it stands. They will have to find value for sure
Trading Ceci is what they should have done regardless.
Getting Emberson is a bonus. If he played second-pairing minutes in San Jose and his RelCorsi were strong, there’s actually a nonzero chance he could fill our 2RD. If not him, possibly Stecher. If neither of those guys, then we have $3M in cap room to get an established 2RD. (Unfortunately, we don’t have a lot of trade assets…)
I thought it should have been last before last season, but that wasn’t Holland’s way
Yup.
I know some will say there was no upgrade available but all we really know is that it wasn’t done. And when I tried to add Kulak to the trade pile all I heard was that we would lose depth.
There is a new attitude steering the ship this summer.
I have a 27-27 spreadsheet started but there are so many unknowns it is hard to say anything except I think your guess of the cap hit is in the range – maybe $99M.
The twitter oilsphere insiders are starting to whisper that we didn’t match. Darn, two young players with elite skating out of the organization…
Then why trade Ceci? What is the plan for 2nd pairing without Broberg on it?
Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse, Kulak are solid, but Kulak should be 3rd pairing and the other 2 spots can’t be filled by the rag tag group assembled during free agency
If they don’t match both, it looks like they go into the season with just under $2 million in cap room even with Kane not going to LTIR.
When they get the 2nd and 3rd round picks from the offer sheets and wait til the trade deadline, they’ll accrue enough cap room to get a $6M+ player using the draft picks.
Looking like they’ll go into the year with something like:
Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Emberson
Kulak- open competition between Josh Brown, Max Wanner, Phil Kemp, or any PTO RHD available
via Twitter/X: PuckPedia @PuckPedia
If #LetsGoOilers don’t match either Broberg/Holloway, they could start year with $946K Projected Cap Space for 21 healthy + Kane IR. They would accrue cap space. Or, could submit roster including Savoie that’s $59K under cap, put Kane on LTIR, & be able to exceed cap by $5.066M while Kane is out. On PuckGM: https://puckgm.puckpedia.com/rosters/57306
That D is below league average by a fair margin. They would be limping to the trade deadline with that D corps, which is an injury away from complete collapse. I get the rationale of accruing cap space but that’s a mighty big gamble
It seems to be but I thought that about the Panthers D. A team playing well together really floats all boats. Stecher and apparently Emberson can both move the puck better than Ceci and Des, so who knows how it pans out
The Panthers d was fascinating in many ways.
Ekblad isn’t great nor fast. Forsling got a lot of hype for his defensive prowess, but got lit up a bit.
Their bottom four d cost about $9 m or a little more than Nurse IIRC.
Mikkola is unremarkable, but has a low cap hit and wasn’t making egregious mistakes.
Oddly, the Oilers weren’t able to exploit the OEL Kulikov lefty lefty pairing.
OEL seemed to have found a way to turn back the clock and found a good amount of speed by NHL Edge data.
The Panthers d were thoroughly unremarkable, but somehow adequate mostly because there was so much cost savings that they had more money to allocate to the forward lines.
Maurice did the same thing in Winnipeg. Middling D. Very aggressive forwards/forecheck.
But we’re not really comparing a bottom 4 of Mikkola, Montour, OEL, and Kulikov to Nurse, Emberson, Kulak and Stecher?
Entirely different strata.
Same situation pre-ekholm. Limped into the deadline with Kulak our 3d and Nurse-Ceci top pair.
There are solutions. I’d say John Carlson at the deadline but with what assets i dont know.
I keep saying/threatening that the Oilers won’t be playing defence this year, and unfortunately Bowman seems to be listening!
Could be something else in the works this is not your Dads Steve Tambellini team.
Maybe Knoblauch straight up thinks Emberson is better than Ceci or will be by playoffs.
Ceci was on the 3rd line by end of the playoffs. Emberson taking Ceci’s spot doesn’t replace the hole in top 4 D that Broberg’s departure would create
Ceci played the 4th and 3rd most minutes in games 6 and 7 – he was not on the 3rd pair.
Nurse/Broberg were the 3rd pair.
Because Ceci isn’t good enough to win a Cup with. Try somebody else.
Broberg at 2RD isn’t good enough either. We need an actual 2RD. Not sure what i think about settling for a 4.5M 3LD.
So somebody inferior? We’re talking a guy with 30 games experience who doesn’t provide offense, and a bunch of FA pickups that were intended to be 7th D men? I’m okay if they have a Broberg replacement lined up at 4th D, but not if it’s Emberson
Hey Rafa – it cannot be ‘we didn’t match’ as the team has until 07:30 MST tomorrow morning to inform the NHL one way or the other and there has not been an announcement as of yet that I have found.
Have faith in JJ et al.
I think they are just feeding off of the Stauffer tweet about cost certainty with the Podkolsin and Emberson acquisitions.
Well, Broberg and Holloway have cost certainty too. Not sure what the Oilers will do tomorrow, and I doubt Stauffer does either.
Links 🔗 please.
A) Tidy work by Bowman’s crew last evening. Cap relief was needed, no matter what they do next. I will miss Ceci but will immortalize him on my NHL 15 game (where he has an 87 rating overall and won the Norris trophy in our second season in GM mode).
B) I love, love, that they are making Broberg, Holloway and the Blues all twist in the wind today. Put in the paperwork, if that’s how they go, at literally the 11th hour. Petty but deserved
By what time tomorrow do the Oilers have to make their decision?
7:30 am I believe
https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/st-louis-blues/latest-news/st-louis-blues-oilers-making-moves-appear-to-show-hand-at-what-they-will-do-with-offer-sheets
“The Oilers need to make their decision by Tuesday morning when the Blues submitted their offer at roughly 8:30 a.m. (CT)…”
So 7:30 MT
Considering Montreal selected Jordan Harris in the 3rd round of the 2018 draft and that he’s a 3rd pair D, getting Laine AND a 2nd round pick is a nice deal to swallow the entire cap hit.
Funny enough, we got Oliver Rodrigue from Montreal’s 2018 2nd round pick and traded the 2018 3rd round pick used to select Harris along with a 5th round pick
Laine needs a stage he feeds off of it. Laine is only 26 and I’ll assume he’s on PP1. Laine is a Hab kind of player he’ll resurrect his career and score 30 plus in Montreal.
I know Suzuki is their #1C but having him and Caufield with Laine would give up as many goals as they scored.
Laine on 1st line and Caufield dropping down to line 2 with Slafkovsky? They have some interesting options…
It’s interesting that Lavoie is a right shot that like to play on the left wing, while Podkolzin is a left shot that likes the rightwing. Throw in Philp and that looks like a nice top line for the Condors or maybe a fourth line for the Oilers.
I doubt Pod would clear waivers. Unless he completely blows it in camp, I believe he will be on the big-boy roster.
If he’s outplayed by Lavoie at camp, he probably still makes the team because he has waiver risk and Lavoie doesn’t really.
Truth be told, there is every chance that Lavoie outperforms him at camp if he’s actually given reps with Henrique and similar players – Lavoie outperformed him last season in the AHL – big time.
Thing is, Pod has name recognition value and top 10 pick pedigree that will likely get him claimed even if he’s cut from another NHL camp coming off a non-impactful AHL season – i.e. shouldn’t be claimed on merit.
What happened to Pod development? Did making the N.H.L and having early sucess go to his head? He seems to have the talent and with his pedigree maybe a change of scenery is the ticket. It also seems like Russians are not a good mix with Tocchet on ice.
HH pumped his tires, so basically cursed him. A few promising careers ruined, most notably Rafferty and Colbourne… everything he touches turns to shit!
There’s no way that Pod goes on waivers before the start of the season given that he cost a draft pick.
Broberg and Holloway were not on from the Edmonton Oilers Roster (https://www.nhl.com/oilers/roster) as of 1:45 pm, today.
Can we confirm that they were yesterday or not?
Weird that they would take them off before an announcement
They’re both St. Louis Blues until further notice. Depending on if the Oilers decide to match, one, or the other, or not at all.
Just did a check: https://www.nhl.com/blues/roster
Neither Holloway nor Broberg are listed on the Blues official roster.
Have you checked the Sharks?
Hah!
Buuuuut, if we were doing the thingy that we weren’t supposed to do with the waivers thingy, we needed to waive the hypothetical players “Hylan Dolloway and Billip Phroberg” on Sunday so they could be claimed today at noon.
They must be in limbo until a decision is made.
1440 says NHL does it automatically. It means nothing.
I checked with someone else on Twitter who was looking at the Oilers Roster page and they were listed earlier today.
Not a solid confirmation but an indication…
Patrick Laine is a Montreal Canadien.
https://x.com/friedgehnic/status/1825620502808854805?s=61
Laine and a second to Montreal for Jordan Harris.
No retention.
Like Holloway better than Podkolzin so I hope we match on that one.
Like both Broberg and Emberson. I like having the option of Broberg, Stetcher, Brown and Emberson to try out with Nurse so I also want to keep Broberg.
Next year Broberg could take Kulak’s place (trade Kulak) and Holloway slides into Skinner’s sport – so why trade the young guys now?
Kane to LTIR and keep both. Play the Vegas game for a year imo. If you need to send anyone down there is Ryan and Perry and Brown right there.
Ceci did what he could as best he could, just him and Nurse were a bad match, I wish Ceci well in all future endeavors. Will net Grier a great draft pick this trade deadline I am sure (no less than a 2nd with an outside chance at a 1st) so well done Grier.
Emberson played with Ferraro on the Sharks second pair. Is described as a hardworking defensive defenseman that kills penalties. Sounds like a nice fit with Nurse. Who knows?
I like all the depth, especially if they decide to match. This is all amazing the way things are turning out. Oilers are clearly in the driver’s seat.
This could be it a perfect mix Nurse&Emberson. Coffey is going to do wonders having Nurse joining the rush and being a driver. Can anyone say Larry Robinson here we come.
What’s their first pair?
Ek & Bouch.
I mean the sharks.
You said, Emb and Ferr on SJS 2nd pair. Just curious who was on their first pair
Vlasic & Walman is my guess.
I’m calling it now. The Oilers sign Broberg and put him on waivers. It’s the only reason I can think of why San Jose would trade Emberson – a good, young RD who has been very good defensively in the AHL, the NCAA and a short stint in the NHL.
I was thinking this last night already too. (But it’ll age poorly if the Oilers don’t match Broberg.)
If this isn’t the plan, then I think Bowman fleeced Grier.
Why would the Oilers trade Broberg, Ceci, and a 3rd for Emberson? That is the epitome of terrible asset management
They only do it if they don’t want to pay Broberg $4.6 mill. If they have determined they can’t match the Blues, it makes sense for them. Emberson would be a better return than the second rounder. I just can’t wrap my head around a young Sharks team trading a young promising player for Ceci.
If they don’t want to pay Broberg 4.6 mil, you make the trade with SJ and then you don’t match St Louis and take their 2nd round pick. They are under no obligation to do anything more for SJ once this trade is completed.
Over 7 million in cap space.
The SJ trade opened up 2+ mil of cap space. The decision of what to do with Broberg is independent. So no, the trade with SJ doesn’t free up 7 mil in cap space.
That’s what I was thinking. Ceci has value, Friedman said there was a market, because the league is so short of RD, and he’s SCF experienced now, and at a lower cap hit
To me, SJ has Celebrini and for RD had Rutta and Benning. They need to start building a better team, and Ceci was a good add for them, he’s better than those two, for a guy with 30 games experience, even if he has upside. And they also got another decent pick. Win win to me
Listening to Peng on LT’s show this morning – they Sharks think Emberson has limited upside – 3rd pairing ceiling. Think Ceci is better now and will be a good vet presence with Smith and Celebrini coming in.
Ceci had/has positive value.
I was listening to a sharks podcast and he was surprised and a little disappointed they made the deal.
you are partially correct…..we take them both, then…..put Holloway on waivers for Grier
A couple of weeks ago Broberg for Askarov would have probably been a pretty good trade for both teams
Interesting thought, but now moot due to circumstances.
Pour one out for Ceci. Scores the winner in Game 7 on way to almost a cup, takes abuse to no end from the fan base, then gets traded to the worst team in the league. And a solid pro the whole way never complains for a moment (iirc).
In my book, he goes in the chapter of Oilers who were treated like shit by the fanbase but they did not deserve it. I call it the Shaun Horcoff chapter.
I hope he gets traded to whichever team we beat in the finals then scores another good payday.
We can have empathy for the player’s treatment.
We can also agree Ceci is a big boy and can handle it with the $13M he’ll have made thanks to a contract from the Oil.
He should never have to worry about paying his bills ever again. That’s a luxury we’d all be so lucky to have.
I will still boo Shawn Horcoff even though he’s no longer playing the game.
You need to get another hobby methinks.
Folks are getting sentimental today. Another way to look at it is when you’re a pro athlete, performance is really all that counts. In the NHL they are guaranteed their contract regardless of how they play, unless they are bought out, and they still get some of it, despite being bought out because the team didn’t see them as worth it
Ceci was a good Oiler in that he kept a good attitude and was liked by his team. I think he gave everything he had. It’s also true that despite a poor showing in last year’s playoffs the team gave him another opportunity. He ended up with the lowest TOI of the D group by the end of the playoffs
Many who are into the numbers felt it was not a good idea to go into the playoffs again with Nurse Ceci given what had happened, and were right. That some wanted a different player isn’t really abusing him. I haven’t seen here much over the top criticism of him. The team gave him lots of chances, it wasn’t a good fit anymore
As for Horcoff, the thing there was he did play very well. He wasn’t an offensive dynamo, but was a top level two way C in the league. He took heat that he didn’t earn because of his contract, like Nurse, but played at a much higher level than Nurse has lately
Horcoff twice scored almost point-a-game during the depths of the dead puck era. That injury in the all-star game really did him in.
Obviously most people thought Horcoff was overpaid. Do you believe Ceci was overpaid? I do believe he’ll be a leader and a good soldier in San Jose and either get traded at the deadline or possibly get a contract from the sharks. Either way after this year Ceci will still be in this league for 3-4 years.
No it wasn’t his contract, it was his fit and pay if he couldn’t handle 2nd pair
He’s now a #1 RD again. And yes because he is healthy and can skate well enough he’ll get another contract. SJ is a bad team, but to me for Ceci to get to be a mentor with a really good young player, to provide leadership (I’m sure part of his appeal to Grier) as they grow as he’s seen it all on the Oilers, isn’t a bad place for him
SJ is probably a hell hole like much of Cali, but the weather’s nicer. He also might get a better next contract there than many places
Yup. He was a good soldier for this org his entire tenure.
Shawn Horcoff was a good hockey player. Ceci, not so much.
Even after those moves, I think I hold to my stance that they should match on Holloway and take the compensation on Broberg.
Holloway’s cap hit isn’t so far removed from what we would’ve expected it to be and, worst case scenario, is still likely moveable for something similar to a 3rd even if he doesn’t pop off next year (maybe with some retention).
On the other hand, if Broberg doesn’t pop off, we’re talking about 4.5mil for someone worth closer to 1.5 to 2mil. That’s the kind of contract that costs to dump or that you likely have to retain to move. In contrast to the present return of a 2nd, that’s a pretty huge difference. On top of that, letting Broberg go allows EDM to get below cap before opening day and accrue pretty significant cap space from Kane’s time on LTIR.
I don’t actually mind whatever option they choose to go with. Now that they’ve made that Ceci trade, any of the 3 possible options are acceptable solutions so long as there appears to be a plan around them (which there does appear to be). Hopefully whoever they retain pops off and becomes worth a 1st or more next year 🙂
I’m curious to see how this all plays out. Many (including me) had posted over the weekend that if the Oilers have a phone call with Mike Grier of San Jose, maybe they could reach an agreement, make an Oilers-favourable trade, and then match both offer sheets before waiving one or both of Broberg and Holloway who would be claimed by San Jose (I read conflicting reports from posters here on whether the Sharks could claim both or only one, but thank you to all who posted).
It seems too suspicious that the Oilers made a trade with San Jose yesterday, and that the trade is deemed by most as being favourable for the Oilers (I will miss Ceci, who was a good soldier and fair value for his cap hit). Based on age regression for Ceci, and promising underlying numbers for Emberson, the Oilers may have received a comparable RHD for a 3rd round pick and a cap savings of $2+M. That looks too good to be true.
I fully anticipate the Oilers to now sign both offer sheets, and waive one or both of Broberg or Holloway. Assuming the Oilers sign both offer sheets…
1) I would be really shocked if neither player was waived for San Jose to claim.
2) I would be equally shocked if both players were waived for San Jose… the trade yesterday looked a bit one-sided for the Oilers, but nowhere near that one-sided.
3) If Holloway is waived, that would seem reasonable for the Oilers and the Sharks (again, considering the cap savings for the Oilers). If Broberg is waived, it would feel like the Oilers gave up way too much in order to hurt St. Louis – this would raise a lot of red flags for me that the org is back to making poor emotional serious of GM moves.
I’m certainly hoping for both Holloway and Broberg to become and stay Oilers starting tomorrow, but I feel certain that one or both will be Sharks before game 1 of the 2024-25 schedule.
The Oilers have no cap concerns until Kane comes off of LTIR and Broberg and/or Holloway can be waived then if the Oilers choose to do so. As I mentioned when this discussion was raging it is difficult to link moves made months apart as collusion.
Good point!!
What happens if the plan is to waive and that person pulls a groin in training camp you are now stuck with him for a calender year. That would become a awkward situation.