It may seem early (have the Oilers even published their training camp invite list?) but as the days roll by in August talk of training camp and job openings will become as commonplace as a lineup at the Tim Horton’s Drive-Thru. It’s not my favorite time of year (draft day, trade deadline day, every day of the playoffs the Oilers are alive) but it’s a blast anyway, and there’s always surprises.
Examples? 2000-01, Craig MacTavish was a rookie head coach and Michel Riesen led the team in pre-season goal scoring (7gp, 4-2-6) helping his entire line (Brian Swanson, C; Dan Cleary, RW) to make the jump to the NHL as a unit.
2006-07, with all of us Oiler fans arguing over the first rounders again (“Schremp isn’t going to get sent out you idiot”, “Pouliot’s time is NOW”), Patrick Thoresen played at a higher level and earned himself a full season in the show.
Who will be the surprise this fall? Who will disappoint? Here’s the early line.
RIESEN TO BELIEVE, 2007
RW Ryan DePape, 19: WHL kid gets a training camp look from the Oilers, similar to Bisaillon and Colton Yellowhorn before him. Former linemate of Jonathan Toews, big winger who had a solid year for the PA Raiders last season. Chances of making the Oilers: Zero.
RW Colin McDonald, 23: Oilers signed him to a 2-year entry level contract on July 17. He’s a coke machine who might end up putting up better results than he did in college, but he’d have to be considered an extremely long shot for the Oilers this fall. Tom Gilbert was more highly touted than McDonald coming out of college last year but was sent out September 30th (not the final cut but close). Fernando Pisani was an early cut in fall 2000 coming out of college, heading down September 11, 2000. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
RW David Rohlfs, 23: Big power winger who spent a significant amount of time in college playing defense. Had a fine offensive season (17-17-34) playing RW alongside TJ Hensick and Kevin Porter at Michigan. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
LW Liam Reddox, 21: A full season in the AHL would be a very good sign for this young prospect who got buried a little one year ago. He does have an interesting resume though, hopefully he can find a role in the AHL as a disturber with some skill (and stay healthy). Chances of making the NHL this fall: Zero.
C Fredrik Johansson, 23: A checking center from the SEL, he’s behind a lot of people here even before we discuss the NHL depth chart. A chance he goes home after camp. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
LW Stephane Goulet, 21: Big winger scored 15 goals in the ECHL last season. He has good footspeed and was a scorer (51 goals final year) in junior, but he needs to get some clearance from all these other prospects in the AHL this year. Chances of making the Oilers: Zero.
D Theo Peckham, 19: All positive reports on this guy, all he’s lacking is experience and that’s what he’ll get in the minors this season. Oilers have signed plenty of veteran AHL rearguards so he could play in the ECHL. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
RW Troy Bodie, 22: Huge winger got into 14 AHL games but spent most of the year in Stockton. Famous junior player whose style used to be called “north and south winger”, which is to say he patrols his wing and isn’t too fancy. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
D T.J. Kemp, 26: Oilers signed him July 17. He’s an AHL defender. He’s a depth signing for the new AHL farm club, but he does apparently have a two-way contract that will pay him $100,000 if he makes the big club. He’s an offensive defender (5-33-38 in 65gp), 5-11 and 200 pounds. Kemp finished tied for fifth among league D-men in assists and was named to the AHL all-star game. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
G Glenn Fisher, 24: .919SP in college this past season, and he’ll be the only first year pro among the Oilers’ goalie prospects. The NCAA leader had a .935SP and Fisher was tied for 17th in college hockey a year ago. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
D Allan Rourke, 26: He’s played over 400 AHL games and 42 in the NHL (11 last year), so Rourke is certainly a candidate for callup to the Oilers this season. Has size but apparently doesn’t use it enough and his numbers indicate he’s an average offensive player (50gp, 5-15-20) for the AHL level (76 AHL defenders had more than 20 points in 06-07). Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
LW Tim Sestito, 23: 2-way winger with grit who hasn’t played much in the AHL since turning pro. He once desribed himself as a player thusly: “I think mainly I’m out there to get things going with a hit or a forecheck and specifically to keep the puck out of our net. I think my defensive part of the game is getting better and if I can chip in with some points, that’s always a plus.” Chances of making the Oilers: Zero.
C Sam Gagner, 17: Turns 18 on August 10. The last junior who made the Oilers the same season he was drafted by the team was Jason Arnott. He can make an impression though (Hemsky sure as hell did) and that may bode well for next fall. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
G Jeff Deslauriers, 23: He’s buried now at the NHL level. The only chance I could see of him getting into NHL action was as a injury replacement or backup, but with Garon signed and Dubnyk about to play in the AHL for a full season JDD’s time with the Oilers organization is running out. His .908SP last season in the AHL represents his pro high water mark, but 20 goalies had a better number in the American League last season (all playing 25 or more games). Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
D Sebastian Bisaillon, 20: Came out of junior and played pretty well last season, but he clearly was the Last Chance Texaco option (the Oilers had no defensemen left to recall). A season in the minors (probably AHL) is straight ahead. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
D Danny Syvret, 22: Is now pretty much buried for this upcoming season. Syvret got some NHL time in 06-07, but from what I saw he has strength issues to go along with the size problems. Hasn’t really delivered offense in the AHL (50gp, 4-14-18). Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
D Bryan Young, 21: Played in 3 pro leagues (including the NHL) this past season and the Oilers would probably like to see him spend a season in one spot and he certainly needs pro experience. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
C Ryan O’Marra, 20: If he makes the Oilers this fall, it’ll be a miracle. O’Marra is a really good NHL prospect, but he had a terrible injury season and any good organization is going to want to see him get his 500 at-bats. A healthy AHL season and a cup of coffee at the end of the year would be a terrific storyline. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
C Tyler Spurgeron, 21: I’d actually give him a slight chance to make the Oilers if he were a year or two older (or if the Oilers didn’t already have Brodziak on the roster). One day soon he’ll shock the HF group by getting a callup before one of EDM’s highly rated prospects. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: Zero.
G Devan Dubnyk, 21: .921SP as a rookie pro was 3rd best in the ECHL. Dubnyk had a terrific camp last fall and impressed the coach a lot. The best he can hope for I think is another strong camp and possibly a chance to get his first NHL action during the season. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 2% (injury).
LW Ryan Flinn, 27: Signed a one year deal July 17, here’s a guy who I can see playing a few games in the NHL this season. Very unlikely to break camp with the team, but there’s a small shot for him as an enforcer/cheap 14F type of player and he certainly would have to be considered a callup option when that ridiculous Boogaard is in town. Has played 31 games in the NHL. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 3%.
D Mathieu Roy, 24- One thing he has going for him is that his skillset fits nicely with the Oilers most pressing need on D. The other thing he has going for him is that he’s passed a ton of guys with better pedigree since being drafted and he has shown well whenever he got the opportunity. He’s played at least a game with the Oilers in each of the last two seasons, and I’d bet on him playing a few (or more) this season. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 4% (injury).
C Rob Schremp, 21: The injury came at an awful time for Schremp, it really did. It will definitely have short term impact on his NHL career and depending on how quickly guys like Cogliano and O’Marra develop it may have long term impact. This isn’t Larry Walker stepping in a Mexican gopher hole tragic because Schremp isn’t that good a player, but for those who have been waiting to see the second coming of Comrie it’s a tough blow. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 4% (miracle recovery).
LW Slava Trukhno, 20: I can hardly wait to see this guy play. He got into two pre-season games a year ago, and impressed speeds at the Golden Bears game. Trukhno would have to shoot lights out in camp this year to make it, but his wide range of skills married to team need and his gritty play married to the coach making the decisions gives him at least a slight chance. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 5%.
LW JF Jacques, 22: It kills me because I really like this kid’s future, but it’s extremely unlikely he makes the big club out of camp. Reasons include he won a job at the end of the roster last season and stagnated (Oilers will probably think it will be better to have him dominate in the AHL and then insert him right into the lineup) and a solid depth chart ahead of him in the NHL. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 9%.
C Andrew Cogliano, 20: Of all the first year pro’s, Cogliano has the best shot imo to make the team out of camp. The two things that will hurt his chances are that he wouldn’t play enough in EDM at the start (the Boyd Devereaux syndrome) and that the Oilers are pretty deep at center. Little doubt we’ll read some articles that have MacT singing his praises and I bet he plays some for the big team in 07-08. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 10%.
C Jonas Almtorp, 23: He’s the Euro Thoresen for this camp I’d say. He impressed everyone a year ago and had a solid year in the SEL. Almtorp’s big advantage over a lot of these guys is that he’s a little older and having him sit 40 games as the 14F isn’t going to hurt his development like it would with, say, Cogliano. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 15%.
D Tom Gilbert, 24- His scoring rate in the AHL (49gp, 4-26-30) and his NHL time (12gp, 1-5-6, minus 1) added to his age suggests it’s go time for Gilbert. A “perfect storm” offseason for the Oilers appears to have robbed him of his first real NHL shot, but if he has a strong camp I can see EDM making room early by either going with 8 defenders or dealing someone away. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 50%.
C Kyle Brodziak, 23: I think he has an excellent chance to be an end of the roster player out of camp for the Oilers. If not, he can continue to build a strong resume at the minor league level. More and more, Kyle Brodziak looks like this decade’s Rem Murray. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 60%.
RW Zack Stortini, 22 in Sept: Pretty much all his arrows are pointing in the right direction. Coach likes him, his skill development won’t be hurt by long stretches in the pressbox and he’s already played in 29 NHL games. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 90%.
D Denis Grebeshkov, 23: Physical player who can move the puck, he has a nice range of skills and has to be considered an important acquisition since all of the guys like this Edmonton picks up seem to be players (from Staios to Hejda). Because of the recent pickups on D it’ll be tougher for him to make the grade, but because he’s an actual defenseman (and he has a one-way deal) things look good for him. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 95%.
LW Robert Nilsson, 22: He looks to be the guy who will get first shot at the 2line minutes this fall, but it isn’t going to be easy. Because the Oilers have so many options (including don’t forget veteran Fernando Pisani who played extremely well with Stoll and Torres) the results will need to be immediate and impressive. I like Cogliano’s future with the Oilers way more than Nilsson’s, but the time is now (or never) for Kenta’s kid. Chances of making the Oilers this fall: 100%.
Friday, with the weekend calling! We hit the airwaves at noon today, Sports 1440. Guests include Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports, Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff plus Declan Krueger will have the latest Declanations. . I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
What a whirl wind, these past two months. Maybe 3 months? Maybe 2024?
How many points did the Oilers have Jan 1st?
Then Game 7.
Add Ardvi and Skinner.
What about Broberg and Holloway?
The pain is still fresh but as this community has informed me, every D makes mistakes and the best defense is a potent offense.
Lorday lorday, even with the offer sheet drama, the questions on D and team speed.. this top 6 is unbelievable. Easily top of the league.
Defense used to win titles (LA, STL) and some think it still does. Goalies are kind of important, right?
Most importantly, thank you to Allan and this community of fans. The dog days of summer (finally) provide the best analysis and numbers.
Yesterday, I found myself engorged with the comments and the work that had been done.
LT would say “Doctor!”
I would say “Mercy!”
Hiring ‘analytics’ folk may be increasing of late, but LT and his gang/posse/crew/blog taught this simpleton (I’ll still whoop your ass at crib) and many others, how to truly love this crazy team.
PS : Go Nurse Go!
Last edited 3 months ago by Ranford.85
OriginalPouzar
August 23, 2024 9:01 pm
Stauff dropping tweets from his vacation:
I have a sneaking suspicion that Ty Emberson may turn out to be a bit of a surprise for the @EdmontonOilers
Had a successful season with Kris Knoblauch in 2022-23.
Played some tough minutes in San Jose.
A lock for me to start in EDM and also be a part of the PK.
OriginalPouzar
August 23, 2024 4:23 pm
2 Mutts talking up how great Mark Pysyk looks at the Perry Pearn and fans should keep an eye on him.
Didn’t know much about him other than he’s a RHD, over 30 and he was a former Oil King. According to HockeyDB he didn’t play at all in 2022-2023 and had just 37 games in the AHL last year split between two teams. Don’t know if it was injury, he couldn’t get a job or he just wasn’t good enough.
Young Goalies with pedigree have real worth. I would gather Wallstedt has around the same value. Even if you don’t need a high end stopper when one is gifted to you with a ribbon and bow on it you damn well take him.
I know nothing about goalies, but I felt at the time (Wallestedt was available and the Oilers were up next) that picking Wallestedt was the value play, even if he wasn’t next up your board
When Leon answers The Call Of Ktulu, he’ll Ride the Lightning, to appease those For Whom the Bell Tolls, And Justice For All will reign with deep satisfaction in Oilersville.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m fully aware of the fact that there is nobody close to an established 2RD in the org (although, truth be told, Emberson played 1RD/2RD in San Jose last year and crushed it relative to the rest of his team). At the same time, I just don’t see Tyson Barrie as a fit for that responsibility. He was no longer a legit 2RD when traded out of Edmonton and showed that he is all but replacement level at 5 on 5 without stud forwards to play with. The Oilers have Stecher and Emberson who are both at least legit 3RD with Josh Brown in to cover – I don’t see the need for Tyson Barrie. Sure, I’d take him at league min and a $225K savings over Josh Brown in the AHL but I’d rather see Emberson/Stecher cover the 2RD bet. I’m not so sure that Phil Kemp and his style isn’t a better fit to eat some 3RD minutes than Barrie For a PTO, a Travis Dermott makes more sense to me. The Oilers have a huge gap after their 3 locked in left shot guys (Gleason). I’d have more time for Dermott at 7D/4LD pushing Brown down to the AHL.
I agree Dermott seems to be the best fit. I do think Barrie will get a PTO but it’ll be Dermott getting a contract . If Dermott signs with Brown and Emberson that’ll be 3 recent Coyotes on the roster which I find interesting for some reason. With all your wisdom please tell me why was Brown signed so quick for 3 years which as we know is a long>long contract for a borderline older player.
It’s zero risk yet it’s the 3 years. Quietly its one of the most bizarre contracts the oilers have ever signed. I’m not talking overpayment and length of contract Kassian-Horcoff-Lucic l’m talking about a 30 year-old at best and I mean at best getting a 2 year contract recieve that 3rd year. We needed brawn losing Vinny yet these players are available every off-season for very little commitment.
Obviously, someone in the organization wants him. That’s why he got that deal. Probably not an AHL candidate to start. He’s not been down there for 5 seasons.
Stauffer was hinting Jultz over Barrie in response to a caller on the radio a while back. I’m still in therapy from watching his last games with Edmonton. That defensive play was as terrible as the
stinker start to last season that got Woody fired. Really, I couldn’t imagine a worse idea than bringing back a currently struggling Jultz. We do not need that experiment.
Jultz did go on to actively assist PIT in back to back Stanley Cups right after he left EDM. Especially the second Cup, when Letang got injured.
This is not an endorsement of bringing him back, merely an observation that he has demonstrated a strong ability to bounce back and thrive under pressure.
I don’t have any interest in Justin Schultz but I don’t think he’s the same player that left Edmonton.
He’s not into real regression years but, for a few years there, I think he turned in to a solid 2-way d-man on a good team. He was 26-9 goals against elites one years in PIT and had 3-4 years over 30% TOI vs. elites in his prime.
Last season with Seattle he was third pairing and doesn’t PK. GF% was not good. He’s no replacement for Desharnais or Ceci. Your 2 & 3 RD need to PK on this team. I don’t really see how Barrie or Shattenkirk fit that bill either.
As I said, I have no interest in bringing in Shultz but your prior post spoke to the player he was in Edmonton a decade ago and I responded with the opinion that he grew and matured as a player and had some very good years in his prime.
I don’t want to bring him in but it has nothing to do with his time as an Oiler a decade ago but because he’s 34 and clearly on the other side of the cliff.
One thing I’ve been thinking about is the career arc and aging curve for top pairing d. I am wondering if there are harbingers of when someone is in decline vs going through a rough patch.
Over the years, a lot of clever people have tried to map out these again curves. In my mind, there’s two difficult confounding variables to overcome.
The first is the team effect. As players like a Duncan Keith or Drew Doughty age out, so too does their respective teams fade from being contenders. This has a huge impact on their in-ice results.
The second issue to overcome is their changing role.on the team. It’s vastly different to be driving out scoring from the bottom vs the top pair. What does this look like?
For some, there’s a lengthy period of out scoring and driving possession while playing huge minutes.
The second phase lasts 1-2 years where they’re still playing big minutes, but failing at out scoring.
This is followed by a correction involving often a change of teams or a change in role either moving to the second pairing or down to the bottom pair.
In this new role, we can see a return to improved on ice results that obscure the reality that there’s been a massive erosion in ability.
Ekholm has been aging like fine wine. It’s worth noting that he didn’t become a regular in the NHL until his draft plus 5 season, so he might have saved some wear and tear compared to OEL.
I wonder if d who play in the NHL right away age differently than those who have a few years to mature before their exposed to rigours if the NHL?
Ekholm has played 12 full seasons in the NHL.Peak TOI draft plus 4, 23:24.
Draft plus 12 still hanging on to 21 minutes per game which is impressive as he doesn’t run the Power play.
Playing on the Oilers with Bouchard and 97 has drastically reinvigorated his possession numbers and goal share the past few years.
He did have a knee surgery and then an ankle issue 22/23, missed a lot of games. Last season he may have been healthier. He crushed his 3rd pairing role in the playoffs playing with Kulikov who didn’t fare so well
OEL had a slow recovery from his knee surgery in 2019. Perhaps some of it was mental or confidence related, and getting bought out, and on a last chance Texaco in Florida, finally refound his game.
Personally, I think Brent Burns’ man-bun is the source of his longevity. He’s modern day Samson.
Just don’t call it a man-bun to his face… he don’t like dat.
~It’s a top-knot and he’s a samurai.~
CruJones
August 23, 2024 11:35 am
Curious to see what this year’s incarnation of the Oilers “Young Stars” looks like. Just booked camping and grabbed tickets to go watch a couple games at the tournament in Penticton with the family next month. Last time we went was right after the McDavid draft. Not too many chances to sit on the glass with the whole family for two games for under $200. Hoping Savoie is on the roster.
Looking forward to it. The kids have been bugging me to get to a game and even factoring in gas and camping fees, this is a much cheaper option.
Last time we went I recall quite a few hockey folks wandering about, so maybe I’ll get to ask the new GM what he envisions for that second pairing on D 😉
Has there been any word on the whole Captain’s Skates thing in Edmonton this year? I’d have to think after the way the season started last year, and how late they played in the playoffs that they’d want nothing to do with them again this season.
Has there been any word on the whole Captain’s Skates thing in Edmonton this year? I’d have to think after the way the season started last year, and how late they played in the playoffs that they’d want nothing to do with them again this season.
I’m sure we’ll read/hear about people skating in town staring in the next week or so.
These skates have been happening for years – they just made such a big deal of it last year as Connor sent the message that wants as many people in town and skating as early as possible (or at least that was the intel).
I think they will be much quieter this year.
So many of the Oilers have kids now and school aged kids so those guys likely get back to town in August to get set-up for school and what-not – they will be on the ice I’m sure. Nurse, Ekholm, Henrique, etc.
If the cap allows it management should give players a cup of Coffee that are waiver exempt. If Wanner keeps progressing give him a few games let him get a taste plus a paycheck. I would of liked to see Rodrique get in a few games to end last year. I do think even though he’s waiver eligible Rodrique should still see some action.
OriginalPouzar
August 23, 2024 10:47 am
I don’t know him personally but I believe that Darnell Nurse is a proud man and a proud hockey player. I’m also quite certain that Darnell Nurse knows he had a poor stretch drive and extremely poor playoffs vis-a-vis his standard and his established levels of play.
I think, but can’t say for certain, that injuries played a large part in his playoff performance (we KNOW he got hurt relatively serious early in the SCF given he missed pretty much the entire game – and I think it was an aggravation something he had been battling through).
In any event, I’ve got to assume that Nurse is as motivated as ever to get his game up to where it has been in the past and where the fan-base expects (or used to expect) it to be.
I don’t want to get in to his cap hit too much, we all know and agree that he is not “worth” $9.25MM but, at the same time, this is a player that has spent years playing 1LD on a good team, being asked to play upwards of 40%, and in some stretches close to 50% of his TOI vs. elites, generally with a partner that is far from a 1st pairing guy and often not an established 2nd paring guy – and he’s had solid results – even away from McDavid.
Darnell Nurse was an established first paring d-man – 2-3 years ago there were not 64 “better” d-men than him and very likely not even 32.
At the top of his game, Darnell Nurse should have absolutely no issues anchoring a 2nd pairing behind a pairing that has either Ekholm and/or Bouchard on it (or both). He anchored a 1st pairing for years.
My expectation is that Darnell Nurse has a great season getting back to near top form and anchors a 2nd paring that we can be proud of.
If he can recover fully I agree. It has been a few playoffs he hasn’t been right physically. I hope the coaches are on this in terms of what they ask the players to do, also focus on the most important attribute which is availability. Injuries happen, but it’s odd that your top players are so injured it reduces their quality of play every playoffs. What’s it been, 3 now?
If Nurse is broken I think the GM should be more assertive in the situation. At some point if they are all so close on the team, if you can’t get the job done anymore and are a cap hog, a trade doesn’t seem like an out of line ask by the GM. You want to get that done, if possible, as soon as possible. A 75% player at his cap doesn’t work
I know that “playing through injury” is a thing in the NHL and I’m wondering if the Oilers need to take steps against that and forcing players to take time to heal their “more than bumps”. I mean the likes of Nurse, Kane and Drai are famous for playing through things.
McDavid too most of last season.
I get it in the playoffs but, during the regular season, presuming they are not fighting back from a huge hole again, maybe that is not the play this season.
I agree with you. He’s a super competitive person who is highly motivated. I’m quite sure he was injured. Aside from making mental mistakes in the playoffs , his physicality didn’t show up in most playoff games. I do believe his ceiling is a 2nd pair D-man. His hockey IQ is not elite level .
A healthy Nurse playing to his strengths Coffey and K.K may have found him the perfect partner in Emberson. We are going to see prime Nurse skate miles and become a power D under Coffey-Stuart-K.k
The pattern of the last few seasons with Nurse is that he’s posted ok fancies in regular season which drop-off in the playoffs.
The playoff drop-off is foreshadowed by regular season scores against elites. The only defenders who have posted well against elites the last two regular seasons have been Ekholm and Bouchard, with Kulak posting well last season only.
The change over the last two seasons for Nurse in terms of fancies correlates with his change in quality of teammate. Nurse’s most common 5v5 teammates:
But what has also contributed was a large number of poor habits that he has on the ice, which became exposed by a lesser quality of teammate and more defensive zone starts. Additionally some think he has also not adjusted well to the new defensive system.
Nurse’s most common teammates are going to change: he won’t be playing with Ceci or Kane to start the season.
Will he clean up his sloppy habits and will he continue adjustment to the new defensive system?
Not a mention of any injury in the exit interviews.
The Oilers would definitely have let the fan base know that Nurse was playing injured if this was the case; Drai’s injuries were mentioned, McDavid’s injuries requiring surgery, not a snippet about Nurse playing hurt.
His drop off in play is a mystery, but this “injury talk” is pure speculation not backed up by any mention of any sort of injury by anyone… teammates, coaches, GM, media, no one… not a word.
With Nurse being the 2nd worst playoff defender of all time, the Oilers definitely would have mentioned him playing through ANY ailments, to assuage the criticism.
Maybe Darnell just isn’t very smart at hockey. He doesn’t seem to learn, season over season.
I’m shocked at the number of defensemen who manage to get to the NHL without seeming to know how to play defence. It’s bizarre.
Commenting on older posts that I’m catching up on.
OriginalPouzar
August 23, 2024 10:36 am
I say it every exhibition season. Exhibition games, in particular early exhibition games but exhibition games in general, mean all but zero with respect to a young prospect being NHL ready.
Examples? 2000-01, Craig MacTavish was a rookie head coach and Michel Riesen led the team in pre-season goal scoring (7gp, 4-2-6) helping his entire line (Brian Swanson, C; Dan Cleary, RW) to make the jump to the NHL as a unit.
Year after year after year we see great exhibition seasons by the likes of Puljuarvi or Dylan Holloway and before that Kailer Yamamoto. Heck there were even calls for Ryan McLeod to start the season with the team in his draft plus 1 year – at 3C.
The above shows this goes back decades.
I fully expect the likes of Matt Savoie and Beau Akey to shine at camp and in the exhibition season – maybe even the likes of Jarventie and O’Riley but I will remain very guarded on what the means.
Someone like Jarventie, with a great exhibition camp, can earn himself a starting roster spot and an opportunity to prove he is an NHL-ready player but I don’t think he can prove NHL readiness at camp, right?
I thought I heard Jarventie is going to take till Christmas at least to get up to speed with the injury and treatment he recieved last year. Any idea what the injury was and how long this rehab usually takes?
I don’t expect we see a young player crack the roster. For one, cap. Second, the roster is full of established players top 6 and the only wing spot might be Perry taking games off
Savoie is small and has had injury problems he needs time, Jarventie just had surgery and will take months like Brown to get back to his best, O’Reilly needs time. Akey major surgery and missed a season, he’s going back to junior
They might want an extra forward, but then they don’t accrue much cap. I expect Ryan and Perry to be regulars to start, but may get games off later to keep them fresher. Maybe a PTO D puts Stecher or Brown in the A, but they will want to see their shiny new D man Emberson
And I hope Bowman doesn’t start acquiring too many US players because they largely don’t want to play in Canada. It bit the Jets and Flames hard, probably not a good plan for smaller frozen outposts. Not worth the hassle unless you know it’s not going to be a hassle
The roster construction and who they have signed and acquired speaks to the direction of things. I was saying the 8 NHL d was strange, I agree with Godot Ceci was going regardless, for cap space at least, not sure if Emberson was the only return
I wonder if a PTO D beats out Stecher or Brown will they clear waivers? Maybe. Brown may the least capable D, but his unique skill set has value on a team that only has 3 other pugilists, one old, one always hurt, and one that has toned things down a lot. Teams will try the rough stuff if they are equipped for it in playoffs, guaranteed, because they will be less skilled than the Oilers
Stecher almost assuredly gets claimed – with his experience and what he’s done in the league – at his age for under $800K – he’s a massive value contract.
Savoie is small and has had injury problems he needs time, Jarventie just had surgery and will take months like Brown to get back to his best, O’Reilly needs time. Akey major surgery and missed a season, he’s going back to junior
Savoie is small and has injury problems. He likely needs time and the org clearly plans on having him start in the AHL but how much time he needs is unknown. This is a top 10 pick that did excel in a small sample in the AHL. He may not need much time at all – maybe even less than Stankoven.
I’m not sure of what the knee surgery that Jarventie had but I do not believe is was major ligament reconstruction like Brown. ACL/MCL repairs are known to take a good year post-surgery, other knee surgeries are generally not.
O’Riley and Akey are assuredly going back to junior.
Philp is in the conversation.
slopitch
August 23, 2024 9:44 am
Ah man I remember being high on Grebeshkov and Nilsson in that 2007-2009 window. Taught me the value of competition. Grebeshkov specifically I think could have had a better career. The team was so bad in 09-10 (fall for hall!) that he went from +12 to -16 yoy. Never really recovered after that season though which makes me think injury was a factor too.
OriginalPouzar
August 23, 2024 9:44 am
Given Bowman’s comments on Tuesday, I had pondered starting the season with Kane either actually playing or just on regular IR and seeing how things went and accruing cap space and then, potentially, deciding in-season to get the surgery with a late April return date.
Wasn’t thinking that was “the plan” but a potential option that would maximize cap space.
It wouldn’t actually because, once they are in LTIR, any previous cap space accrued cannot be used and any acquisition would required them to fit in the entire annual cap hit – a $4MM added cap hit would need $4MM of cap space under their LTIR cap and not just the 2/5 of what is left (or whatever the percentage is).
So, if they spent all season with $1MM of cap room and are close to $5MM at the deadline and then Kane goes on LTIR, that accrued cap space means nothing.
What if the trade for a player worth the 5 million then he goes on LTIR can then then make an additional transaction to acquire a player to cover Kane’s LTIR?
Adding an LTIR player does not provide a single sent of additional cap space – that is a massive fallacy.
If they add an LTIR player, they can go over the cap by an additional amount but they also add that player’s cap hit – its a net zero.
The benefits of acquiring an LTIR player are:
1) The disposing team pays an asset to take get rid of the player and his cap (or take on a cap hit off the acquiring team’s active roster which opens up cap space); or
2) the LTIR player will be ready during the playoffs and therefor can be activated and play.
Thank you for the information. The period between now and the first regular-season game is going to very interesting for a variety of players.
IMHO, the best case scenario is that Kane stays on IR, the rehab works and the team accrues cap space for a deadline add. If the rehab does in fact work out, and he is back to his old rambunctious self, he could play games prior to the playoffs to get his timing back.
dangilitis
August 23, 2024 9:36 am
This interesting stat came across my feed today. Of the top 5 or 6 defensive pairings this decade for xGF%, #1 was Ekholm-Bouch, but #5/6 was Kulak-Petry in 2020. I am sorry I can’t find the source so someone may need to verify. But interesting in that some media are suggesting the Oil try and get Petry or Larsson back. I think both are long shots but intriguing. Fabbro would be ideal from cost and what he would bring to a Nurse pairing
Agreed on Fabbro. NHL_Sid’s recent ON article was quite illuminating on him as a potentially strong option for 2RD. Fabbro making 2.5M on this last year of his deal and not being penciled into the Preds top 6 D (as per Daily Faceoff projected starting lines, unsure of how accurate those are though) makes me wonder if he may be an at least somewhat realistic target. His old buddy Ekholm may be a strong reference as well, similar to Arvidsson.
Of note with respect to the much opined Ratmus, based on that same article which showed him quite poorly in Sid’s defensive metrics, as well as contract, acquisition cost and the fact Conroy would be unlikely to deal with us, Fabbro would appear to be a far better option.
Daily Faceoff has a fella named Stastney starting, pretty sure that’s left over from last season. Puckepdia GM has Josi Fabbro, Skjei Carrier, Lauzon Schenn. That seems more likely
I like Fabbro but unless the Preds absolutely bomb this year (very unlikely) there is zero chance they trade him. They just signed a bunch of ageing vets to try and push for a cup. No way they trade one of their best dmen.
Fabbro has ridden a rollcoaster with the his coaches. At times they really like him, at other times they are highly critical of his performance. Happened with both Hynes and with Brunette.
He’s played best with Josi…but everyone looks better with Josi than without.
Could see where at some point the player would want a fresh start.
Kert
August 23, 2024 9:20 am
Patrick Thoresen beating out MAP and Schremp was a real shot to the nuts.
What a whirl wind, these past two months. Maybe 3 months? Maybe 2024?
How many points did the Oilers have Jan 1st?
Then Game 7.
Add Ardvi and Skinner.
What about Broberg and Holloway?
The pain is still fresh but as this community has informed me, every D makes mistakes and the best defense is a potent offense.
Lorday lorday, even with the offer sheet drama, the questions on D and team speed.. this top 6 is unbelievable. Easily top of the league.
Defense used to win titles (LA, STL) and some think it still does. Goalies are kind of important, right?
Most importantly, thank you to Allan and this community of fans. The dog days of summer (finally) provide the best analysis and numbers.
Yesterday, I found myself engorged with the comments and the work that had been done.
LT would say “Doctor!”
I would say “Mercy!”
Hiring ‘analytics’ folk may be increasing of late, but LT and his gang/posse/crew/blog taught this simpleton (I’ll still whoop your ass at crib) and many others, how to truly love this crazy team.
PS : Go Nurse Go!
Stauff dropping tweets from his vacation:
I have a sneaking suspicion that Ty Emberson may turn out to be a bit of a surprise for the @EdmontonOilers
Had a successful season with Kris Knoblauch in 2022-23.
Played some tough minutes in San Jose.
A lock for me to start in EDM and also be a part of the PK.
2 Mutts talking up how great Mark Pysyk looks at the Perry Pearn and fans should keep an eye on him.
Didn’t know much about him other than he’s a RHD, over 30 and he was a former Oil King. According to HockeyDB he didn’t play at all in 2022-2023 and had just 37 games in the AHL last year split between two teams. Don’t know if it was injury, he couldn’t get a job or he just wasn’t good enough.
Way past his best before date.
He ruptured his Achilles and missed more than a full season – think he signed mid-season last year.
I have zero interest but he’s been linked to the Oilers, seemingly yearly, for years.
He was talked about a lot round these parts. A few years ago.
https://www.nhl.com/news/yaroslav-askarov-traded-to-san-jose-sharks-by-nashville-predators
Askarov to San Jose
Young Goalies with pedigree have real worth. I would gather Wallstedt has around the same value. Even if you don’t need a high end stopper when one is gifted to you with a ribbon and bow on it you damn well take him.
I tend to agree with this sentiment
I know nothing about goalies, but I felt at the time (Wallestedt was available and the Oilers were up next) that picking Wallestedt was the value play, even if he wasn’t next up your board
Askarov to Vegas.
I think you mean San Jose.
Yes. Too late to edit and doing too many things at the same time. My apologies.
Big move for Grier.
Whoops. Reading comprehension. To SJ.
From accounts, Leon Draisaitl has a history of signing NHL contracts on the day Metallica plays in Edmonton…..
That’s because nothing else matters…
When Leon answers The Call Of Ktulu, he’ll Ride the Lightning, to appease those For Whom the Bell Tolls, And Justice For All will reign with deep satisfaction in Oilersville.
I sure hope so I don’t think my nervous system can take watching Leon and the Oilers without him having signed a contract by game one.
From Seravelli
UFA Update: #Oilers are perusing the market for right-shot D, including Justin Schultz, Tyson Barrie and Kevin Shattenkirk, among others.
It is a no brainer to sign one of these players if they would agree to league minimum.
I don’t agree.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m fully aware of the fact that there is nobody close to an established 2RD in the org (although, truth be told, Emberson played 1RD/2RD in San Jose last year and crushed it relative to the rest of his team).
At the same time, I just don’t see Tyson Barrie as a fit for that responsibility. He was no longer a legit 2RD when traded out of Edmonton and showed that he is all but replacement level at 5 on 5 without stud forwards to play with.
The Oilers have Stecher and Emberson who are both at least legit 3RD with Josh Brown in to cover – I don’t see the need for Tyson Barrie.
Sure, I’d take him at league min and a $225K savings over Josh Brown in the AHL but I’d rather see Emberson/Stecher cover the 2RD bet.
I’m not so sure that Phil Kemp and his style isn’t a better fit to eat some 3RD minutes than Barrie
For a PTO, a Travis Dermott makes more sense to me. The Oilers have a huge gap after their 3 locked in left shot guys (Gleason). I’d have more time for Dermott at 7D/4LD pushing Brown down to the AHL.
I agree Dermott seems to be the best fit. I do think Barrie will get a PTO but it’ll be Dermott getting a contract . If Dermott signs with Brown and Emberson that’ll be 3 recent Coyotes on the roster which I find interesting for some reason. With all your wisdom please tell me why was Brown signed so quick for 3 years which as we know is a long>long contract for a borderline older player.
I have no idea why they signed Brown for three years – its zero risk as its fully buryable but I don’t understand it.
It’s zero risk yet it’s the 3 years. Quietly its one of the most bizarre contracts the oilers have ever signed. I’m not talking overpayment and length of contract Kassian-Horcoff-Lucic l’m talking about a 30 year-old at best and I mean at best getting a 2 year contract recieve that 3rd year. We needed brawn losing Vinny yet these players are available every off-season for very little commitment.
Obviously, someone in the organization wants him. That’s why he got that deal. Probably not an AHL candidate to start. He’s not been down there for 5 seasons.
As of right now, he’s 7D but, if they add someone that “makes the team”, I would expect he’s 8D and down.
Emberson is a lock and I would think Stecher is ahead of him as well.
That 3 years could be to deter a waivers claim.
Stauffer was hinting Jultz over Barrie in response to a caller on the radio a while back. I’m still in therapy from watching his last games with Edmonton. That defensive play was as terrible as the
stinker start to last season that got Woody fired. Really, I couldn’t imagine a worse idea than bringing back a currently struggling Jultz. We do not need that experiment.
I’m generally not in favour of retreads.
Jultz did go on to actively assist PIT in back to back Stanley Cups right after he left EDM. Especially the second Cup, when Letang got injured.
This is not an endorsement of bringing him back, merely an observation that he has demonstrated a strong ability to bounce back and thrive under pressure.
I don’t have any interest in Justin Schultz but I don’t think he’s the same player that left Edmonton.
He’s not into real regression years but, for a few years there, I think he turned in to a solid 2-way d-man on a good team. He was 26-9 goals against elites one years in PIT and had 3-4 years over 30% TOI vs. elites in his prime.
Last season with Seattle he was third pairing and doesn’t PK. GF% was not good. He’s no replacement for Desharnais or Ceci. Your 2 & 3 RD need to PK on this team. I don’t really see how Barrie or Shattenkirk fit that bill either.
As I said, I have no interest in bringing in Shultz but your prior post spoke to the player he was in Edmonton a decade ago and I responded with the opinion that he grew and matured as a player and had some very good years in his prime.
I don’t want to bring him in but it has nothing to do with his time as an Oiler a decade ago but because he’s 34 and clearly on the other side of the cliff.
One thing I’ve been thinking about is the career arc and aging curve for top pairing d. I am wondering if there are harbingers of when someone is in decline vs going through a rough patch.
Over the years, a lot of clever people have tried to map out these again curves. In my mind, there’s two difficult confounding variables to overcome.
The first is the team effect. As players like a Duncan Keith or Drew Doughty age out, so too does their respective teams fade from being contenders. This has a huge impact on their in-ice results.
The second issue to overcome is their changing role.on the team. It’s vastly different to be driving out scoring from the bottom vs the top pair. What does this look like?
For some, there’s a lengthy period of out scoring and driving possession while playing huge minutes.
The second phase lasts 1-2 years where they’re still playing big minutes, but failing at out scoring.
This is followed by a correction involving often a change of teams or a change in role either moving to the second pairing or down to the bottom pair.
In this new role, we can see a return to improved on ice results that obscure the reality that there’s been a massive erosion in ability.
OEL is an interesting case.He’s just turned 33 and coming off a resurgence in which he won the cup playing on the bottom pairing.
He hit the ground running playing in the NHL right after being drafted.
Despite playing in a mediocre Coyotes team, he had positive goal shares for 5 of his first six seasons.
Toi peaked at draft plus 4 at 25:53 per game. NST
This coincided with his peak scoring year of 21 g and 55 points.
Draft plus 8, he dropped under 24 minutes for first time.
Draft plus 10. 23 minutes
Draft plus 11, 20:58.
Draft plus 12. 22:18
Draft plus 13. 20:10
Draft plus 14. 18:23
To my eye, he was already slipping by his last two years in Arizona (draft plus 10/11), but his best before date had long passed before that.
The draft plus 10 and 11 seasons were his 28 and 29 seasons.
Now if you could pick an OEL from any of his seasons played, which one would you pick?
Ekholm has been aging like fine wine. It’s worth noting that he didn’t become a regular in the NHL until his draft plus 5 season, so he might have saved some wear and tear compared to OEL.
I wonder if d who play in the NHL right away age differently than those who have a few years to mature before their exposed to rigours if the NHL?
Ekholm has played 12 full seasons in the NHL.Peak TOI draft plus 4, 23:24.
Draft plus 12 still hanging on to 21 minutes per game which is impressive as he doesn’t run the Power play.
Playing on the Oilers with Bouchard and 97 has drastically reinvigorated his possession numbers and goal share the past few years.
He did have a knee surgery and then an ankle issue 22/23, missed a lot of games. Last season he may have been healthier. He crushed his 3rd pairing role in the playoffs playing with Kulikov who didn’t fare so well
He really turned back the clock, absolutely. He was a force.He was flying out there by NHlLedge data.
OEL had a slow recovery from his knee surgery in 2019. Perhaps some of it was mental or confidence related, and getting bought out, and on a last chance Texaco in Florida, finally refound his game.
If you’re looking for defenders who age well and defy the curve, check out Burns. His numbers are unbelievable and he’s going to be 40 in March.
There was a group of those San Jose guys that all have had insane runs defying age and injury.
Patrick Marleau must be the terminator. He played 11 full 82 game seasons.
Who else? Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski.
Those guys all defied any sort of aging curve.
And they all played their entire careers on really good to great teams. They all left San Jose before the team really went to shit.
Karlsson with 101 points and Norris at 32-33.
Vlasic not so much.
Evidently, San Jose seems to be a Blue Zone.
https://www.bluezones.com/#:~:text=He%20identified%20the%20five%20original,%3B%20and%20Loma%20Linda%2C%20California.
Personally, I think Brent Burns’ man-bun is the source of his longevity. He’s modern day Samson.
Just don’t call it a man-bun to his face… he don’t like dat.
~It’s a top-knot and he’s a samurai.~
Curious to see what this year’s incarnation of the Oilers “Young Stars” looks like. Just booked camping and grabbed tickets to go watch a couple games at the tournament in Penticton with the family next month. Last time we went was right after the McDavid draft. Not too many chances to sit on the glass with the whole family for two games for under $200. Hoping Savoie is on the roster.
Savoie, Jarventie, O’Riley, Akey, Stonehouse, Stefan – should be fun.
Not sure if the likes of Wanner and Petrov and Grubee will go after a full year of pro.
Looking forward to it. The kids have been bugging me to get to a game and even factoring in gas and camping fees, this is a much cheaper option.
Last time we went I recall quite a few hockey folks wandering about, so maybe I’ll get to ask the new GM what he envisions for that second pairing on D 😉
Has there been any word on the whole Captain’s Skates thing in Edmonton this year? I’d have to think after the way the season started last year, and how late they played in the playoffs that they’d want nothing to do with them again this season.
I’m sure we’ll read/hear about people skating in town staring in the next week or so.
These skates have been happening for years – they just made such a big deal of it last year as Connor sent the message that wants as many people in town and skating as early as possible (or at least that was the intel).
I think they will be much quieter this year.
So many of the Oilers have kids now and school aged kids so those guys likely get back to town in August to get set-up for school and what-not – they will be on the ice I’m sure. Nurse, Ekholm, Henrique, etc.
Blue Bullet Brad
@BlueBullet1981
https://x.com/BlueBullet1981/status/1825943917721956770/photo/1
If the cap allows it management should give players a cup of Coffee that are waiver exempt. If Wanner keeps progressing give him a few games let him get a taste plus a paycheck. I would of liked to see Rodrique get in a few games to end last year. I do think even though he’s waiver eligible Rodrique should still see some action.
I don’t know him personally but I believe that Darnell Nurse is a proud man and a proud hockey player. I’m also quite certain that Darnell Nurse knows he had a poor stretch drive and extremely poor playoffs vis-a-vis his standard and his established levels of play.
I think, but can’t say for certain, that injuries played a large part in his playoff performance (we KNOW he got hurt relatively serious early in the SCF given he missed pretty much the entire game – and I think it was an aggravation something he had been battling through).
In any event, I’ve got to assume that Nurse is as motivated as ever to get his game up to where it has been in the past and where the fan-base expects (or used to expect) it to be.
I don’t want to get in to his cap hit too much, we all know and agree that he is not “worth” $9.25MM but, at the same time, this is a player that has spent years playing 1LD on a good team, being asked to play upwards of 40%, and in some stretches close to 50% of his TOI vs. elites, generally with a partner that is far from a 1st pairing guy and often not an established 2nd paring guy – and he’s had solid results – even away from McDavid.
Darnell Nurse was an established first paring d-man – 2-3 years ago there were not 64 “better” d-men than him and very likely not even 32.
At the top of his game, Darnell Nurse should have absolutely no issues anchoring a 2nd pairing behind a pairing that has either Ekholm and/or Bouchard on it (or both). He anchored a 1st pairing for years.
My expectation is that Darnell Nurse has a great season getting back to near top form and anchors a 2nd paring that we can be proud of.
If he can recover fully I agree. It has been a few playoffs he hasn’t been right physically. I hope the coaches are on this in terms of what they ask the players to do, also focus on the most important attribute which is availability. Injuries happen, but it’s odd that your top players are so injured it reduces their quality of play every playoffs. What’s it been, 3 now?
If Nurse is broken I think the GM should be more assertive in the situation. At some point if they are all so close on the team, if you can’t get the job done anymore and are a cap hog, a trade doesn’t seem like an out of line ask by the GM. You want to get that done, if possible, as soon as possible. A 75% player at his cap doesn’t work
I know that “playing through injury” is a thing in the NHL and I’m wondering if the Oilers need to take steps against that and forcing players to take time to heal their “more than bumps”. I mean the likes of Nurse, Kane and Drai are famous for playing through things.
McDavid too most of last season.
I get it in the playoffs but, during the regular season, presuming they are not fighting back from a huge hole again, maybe that is not the play this season.
I agree with you. He’s a super competitive person who is highly motivated. I’m quite sure he was injured. Aside from making mental mistakes in the playoffs , his physicality didn’t show up in most playoff games. I do believe his ceiling is a 2nd pair D-man. His hockey IQ is not elite level .
A healthy Nurse playing to his strengths Coffey and K.K may have found him the perfect partner in Emberson. We are going to see prime Nurse skate miles and become a power D under Coffey-Stuart-K.k
The pattern of the last few seasons with Nurse is that he’s posted ok fancies in regular season which drop-off in the playoffs.
The playoff drop-off is foreshadowed by regular season scores against elites. The only defenders who have posted well against elites the last two regular seasons have been Ekholm and Bouchard, with Kulak posting well last season only.
The change over the last two seasons for Nurse in terms of fancies correlates with his change in quality of teammate. Nurse’s most common 5v5 teammates:
(Reg)
‘21-‘22: McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Ceci.
’22-‘23: Ceci, Draisaitl, McDavid, Hyman
’23-‘24: Ceci, Kane, Draisaitl, Foegele
(Playoffs)
‘21-‘22: Ceci, McDavid, Kane, Draisaitl
’22-‘23: Ceci, Yamamoto, Draisaitl, RNH
’23-‘24: Ceci, Kane, Draisaitl , McLeod
But what has also contributed was a large number of poor habits that he has on the ice, which became exposed by a lesser quality of teammate and more defensive zone starts. Additionally some think he has also not adjusted well to the new defensive system.
Nurse’s most common teammates are going to change: he won’t be playing with Ceci or Kane to start the season.
Will he clean up his sloppy habits and will he continue adjustment to the new defensive system?
Not a mention of any injury in the exit interviews.
The Oilers would definitely have let the fan base know that Nurse was playing injured if this was the case; Drai’s injuries were mentioned, McDavid’s injuries requiring surgery, not a snippet about Nurse playing hurt.
His drop off in play is a mystery, but this “injury talk” is pure speculation not backed up by any mention of any sort of injury by anyone… teammates, coaches, GM, media, no one… not a word.
With Nurse being the 2nd worst playoff defender of all time, the Oilers definitely would have mentioned him playing through ANY ailments, to assuage the criticism.
Maybe Darnell just isn’t very smart at hockey. He doesn’t seem to learn, season over season.
I’m shocked at the number of defensemen who manage to get to the NHL without seeming to know how to play defence. It’s bizarre.
Whoops!
Commenting on older posts that I’m catching up on.
I say it every exhibition season. Exhibition games, in particular early exhibition games but exhibition games in general, mean all but zero with respect to a young prospect being NHL ready.
Year after year after year we see great exhibition seasons by the likes of Puljuarvi or Dylan Holloway and before that Kailer Yamamoto. Heck there were even calls for Ryan McLeod to start the season with the team in his draft plus 1 year – at 3C.
The above shows this goes back decades.
I fully expect the likes of Matt Savoie and Beau Akey to shine at camp and in the exhibition season – maybe even the likes of Jarventie and O’Riley but I will remain very guarded on what the means.
Someone like Jarventie, with a great exhibition camp, can earn himself a starting roster spot and an opportunity to prove he is an NHL-ready player but I don’t think he can prove NHL readiness at camp, right?
I thought I heard Jarventie is going to take till Christmas at least to get up to speed with the injury and treatment he recieved last year. Any idea what the injury was and how long this rehab usually takes?
I don’t believe there is anything official on that.
If I remember correctly, Gretzky said he’ll be at camp.
How long it takes him to get up to speed is anyone’s guess. I don’t know what the surgery was but it wasn’t a torn ACL repaid akin to Brown.
I don’t expect we see a young player crack the roster. For one, cap. Second, the roster is full of established players top 6 and the only wing spot might be Perry taking games off
Savoie is small and has had injury problems he needs time, Jarventie just had surgery and will take months like Brown to get back to his best, O’Reilly needs time. Akey major surgery and missed a season, he’s going back to junior
They might want an extra forward, but then they don’t accrue much cap. I expect Ryan and Perry to be regulars to start, but may get games off later to keep them fresher. Maybe a PTO D puts Stecher or Brown in the A, but they will want to see their shiny new D man Emberson
And I hope Bowman doesn’t start acquiring too many US players because they largely don’t want to play in Canada. It bit the Jets and Flames hard, probably not a good plan for smaller frozen outposts. Not worth the hassle unless you know it’s not going to be a hassle
The roster construction and who they have signed and acquired speaks to the direction of things. I was saying the 8 NHL d was strange, I agree with Godot Ceci was going regardless, for cap space at least, not sure if Emberson was the only return
I wonder if a PTO D beats out Stecher or Brown will they clear waivers? Maybe. Brown may the least capable D, but his unique skill set has value on a team that only has 3 other pugilists, one old, one always hurt, and one that has toned things down a lot. Teams will try the rough stuff if they are equipped for it in playoffs, guaranteed, because they will be less skilled than the Oilers
Stecher almost assuredly gets claimed – with his experience and what he’s done in the league – at his age for under $800K – he’s a massive value contract.
Savoie is small and has injury problems. He likely needs time and the org clearly plans on having him start in the AHL but how much time he needs is unknown. This is a top 10 pick that did excel in a small sample in the AHL. He may not need much time at all – maybe even less than Stankoven.
I’m not sure of what the knee surgery that Jarventie had but I do not believe is was major ligament reconstruction like Brown. ACL/MCL repairs are known to take a good year post-surgery, other knee surgeries are generally not.
O’Riley and Akey are assuredly going back to junior.
Philp is in the conversation.
Ah man I remember being high on Grebeshkov and Nilsson in that 2007-2009 window. Taught me the value of competition. Grebeshkov specifically I think could have had a better career. The team was so bad in 09-10 (fall for hall!) that he went from +12 to -16 yoy. Never really recovered after that season though which makes me think injury was a factor too.
Given Bowman’s comments on Tuesday, I had pondered starting the season with Kane either actually playing or just on regular IR and seeing how things went and accruing cap space and then, potentially, deciding in-season to get the surgery with a late April return date.
Wasn’t thinking that was “the plan” but a potential option that would maximize cap space.
It wouldn’t actually because, once they are in LTIR, any previous cap space accrued cannot be used and any acquisition would required them to fit in the entire annual cap hit – a $4MM added cap hit would need $4MM of cap space under their LTIR cap and not just the 2/5 of what is left (or whatever the percentage is).
So, if they spent all season with $1MM of cap room and are close to $5MM at the deadline and then Kane goes on LTIR, that accrued cap space means nothing.
What if the trade for a player worth the 5 million then he goes on LTIR can then then make an additional transaction to acquire a player to cover Kane’s LTIR?
Adding an LTIR player does not provide a single sent of additional cap space – that is a massive fallacy.
If they add an LTIR player, they can go over the cap by an additional amount but they also add that player’s cap hit – its a net zero.
The benefits of acquiring an LTIR player are:
1) The disposing team pays an asset to take get rid of the player and his cap (or take on a cap hit off the acquiring team’s active roster which opens up cap space); or
2) the LTIR player will be ready during the playoffs and therefor can be activated and play.
Thank you for the information. The period between now and the first regular-season game is going to very interesting for a variety of players.
IMHO, the best case scenario is that Kane stays on IR, the rehab works and the team accrues cap space for a deadline add. If the rehab does in fact work out, and he is back to his old rambunctious self, he could play games prior to the playoffs to get his timing back.
This interesting stat came across my feed today. Of the top 5 or 6 defensive pairings this decade for xGF%, #1 was Ekholm-Bouch, but #5/6 was Kulak-Petry in 2020. I am sorry I can’t find the source so someone may need to verify. But interesting in that some media are suggesting the Oil try and get Petry or Larsson back. I think both are long shots but intriguing. Fabbro would be ideal from cost and what he would bring to a Nurse pairing
Agreed on Fabbro. NHL_Sid’s recent ON article was quite illuminating on him as a potentially strong option for 2RD. Fabbro making 2.5M on this last year of his deal and not being penciled into the Preds top 6 D (as per Daily Faceoff projected starting lines, unsure of how accurate those are though) makes me wonder if he may be an at least somewhat realistic target. His old buddy Ekholm may be a strong reference as well, similar to Arvidsson.
Of note with respect to the much opined Ratmus, based on that same article which showed him quite poorly in Sid’s defensive metrics, as well as contract, acquisition cost and the fact Conroy would be unlikely to deal with us, Fabbro would appear to be a far better option.
Daily Faceoff has a fella named Stastney starting, pretty sure that’s left over from last season. Puckepdia GM has Josi Fabbro, Skjei Carrier, Lauzon Schenn. That seems more likely
Agreed haha, that certainly appears a far more likely lineup.
I like Fabbro but unless the Preds absolutely bomb this year (very unlikely) there is zero chance they trade him. They just signed a bunch of ageing vets to try and push for a cup. No way they trade one of their best dmen.
Fabbro has ridden a rollcoaster with the his coaches. At times they really like him, at other times they are highly critical of his performance. Happened with both Hynes and with Brunette.
He’s played best with Josi…but everyone looks better with Josi than without.
Could see where at some point the player would want a fresh start.
Patrick Thoresen beating out MAP and Schremp was a real shot to the nuts.
He was no matts lindgren
I think his kid was unsigned by buffalo…we could have another mats lindgren!!