Across The Great Divide

by Lowetide

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OriginalPouzar

Beau Akey was on the ice for practice today which is good news given Escott mentioning he may or may night play in games.

OriginalPouzar

Don’t get alot of interviews with Petrov but, from his piece today, he’s a very personable kid.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

How’s his English?

defmn

Excellent.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

That bodes well.

Hard to fit in if you can’t make yourself understood.

OriginalPouzar

Niemo heading to Germany – per Matty.

I remember hearing a month ago or so that he dealt with some personal issues this past- I think family related but can’t quite remember so don’t take that as fact.

The Great One
JimmyV1965

Interesting that he doesn’t even mention Bouchard’s shot. Hmm

OriginalPouzar

Interesting that all the other rankings that have Bouchard in the 5-7 range have not been posted.

The Great One

Perhaps you should do so.

Ryan
The Great One
The Great One

I expect that is covered in “outside shots” and “finishing” where he ranked Bouchard was ranked 9/10 in both.

Last edited 2 months ago by The Great One
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Gonna be interesting to see if Makar and Toews brutal play away from MacKinnon is a feature and not a one off. Sure looked pedestrian and disinterested in playing defense last season.

Bouchard will probably crack 100 this year with two stellar lines to work with.

DexandRuby

First September having a place in penticton!!!!…..I’m staying in Alberta for emergency dental work….next year!!

Fml

Optimism is like heroin

So while lost and wandering the web I ran across an interesting study on injuries.

https://lukaswadya.com/2019/07/24/predicting-nhl-injuries/

Interesting bits here include
Player size has minimal impact on injuries. Injury history is truly a thing, being the biggest driver of future injuries. Age is a small factor in getting injured.

The Great One

Logically, injury history is a function of age.

Scungilli Slushy

I don’t think you can separate age from previous injuries. You don’t get injured because you are in your 30s, which is younger for a human if older for an athlete, you accumulate wear and tear in a contact sport and that might make a person more likely to be injured. If you get through years in the league with less damage you aren’t that different than a younger player

Ryan

 Age is a small factor in getting injured.

I think age is a bigger factor than his analysis methods would have identified.

If you don’t correct for survivorship bias, which you really can’t with publicly available data, you’re going to miss this.

The publicly available data for injuries is quite poor, in general.

jp

I’m not able to see the figures or tables in the article (not sure if others can), but this:

Age times Average Previous Games Missed is the fourth-highest predictor coefficient, providing some very weak evidence of older players being more likely to get injured

would seem to indicate that age itself/alone was not predictive/correlated with more injuries.

Perhaps you’re correct about survivorship bias, but I think it would be fair to say that based on the analysis we have at hand, there is ‘some very weak evidence’ that age is associated with more injuries.

Dee Dee

Alcohol consumption has saved me from many injuries. Only time I ever got hurt was stone cold sober.

Scungilli Slushy

This has been done before at Copper N Blue or CoH can’t remember, it was over 10 years ago. I think the buckets are so large it’s not really saying that much. For example if Yama avoided contact he might be in a better NHL place, or Gallagher or Ellis. But I am certain smaller players that don’t avoid contact break down faster and further, it’s physics. This also suggests that smaller players that do avoid contact are probably perimeter players. How the player plays probably is the determinant of accumulating damage, and some luck

Ryan

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Dennis King
@DKingBH

Oilers Now with what I believe is the very first mention of Rasmus Ristolainen at half-retained salary

Last edited 2 months ago by Ryan
Scungilli Slushy

Where do they get 2.55M in cap? Also, can’t defend

defmn

Kulak goes the other way replaced with a $1.2M guy would be my guess. Not sure what else would be involved.

I say that because from a cap efficiency perspective his $2.75 for 3LD is the contract that is most out of whack.

Not advocating. Just speculating on what it would have to look like were it to happen.

I assume it was mentioned in the context of a TD deal?

Last edited 2 months ago by defmn
Ryan

It’s funny. When I first read that, I thought, “Rasmus Andersson at half retained, hell ya!”

Last edited 2 months ago by Ryan
jp

Retained salary for 3 years seems unlikely.

Ristolainen’s numbers have improved tremendously in Philadelphia though (including relative to team).

He is no longer should no longer be the butt of jokes about being a bad hockey player.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

His numbers have improved because his role has been reduced. He averaged 16:41 last year on a poor Philly team.

jp

His numbers were much better (than in Buffalo) even in year 1 with Philadelphia. I did not realize how much his TOI had dropped in the past 2 seasons though.

Last edited 2 months ago by jp
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Can you imagine? Ristolainen would be Ceci redux.

Oilerguy

Anyone else see the quote by Mathews on Sportsnet with Mathews saying Connor loves the Leafs?

Reja

If they don’t sign Marner they will wine and dine Connor for max percentage of the Cap.

Durag

Matthews’ contract expires the same year as Hyman’s. He’d make a good triggerman for McDavid!

OriginalPouzar

Matthews would be a solid 3rd line center for the Oilers.

Oilerguy

That would be horrible

Oilerguy

I’m also thinking Mathews isnt exactly telling the truth. I can’t seem to see Connor saying that while still Oilers property.

Scungilli Slushy

Can’t be doing that unless he’s a free agent, and he won’t get to UFA as an Oiler

Anyway, even if he is a Leafs fan, and they would give him max, it’s a mediocre team that can’t win in the playoffs, and wouldn’t have money to have a good team anyways

The Great One

Marner has been training with MacKinnon,

Would not be surprised to see him in Colorado.

OriginalPouzar

They don’t have the ability to talk to McDavid and wine him until July 1, 2026, if he’s not re-signed by then.

Scungilli Slushy

That sounds like underpants is messing with his pal. I’m sure he was a Leafs fan growing up

Reja

Holloway is a Flamer for life. Armstrong dangled a few handful of G-notes in his direction and he jumped on it like a cat in heat.

Scungilli Slushy

He said the Oilers weren’t really trying to make a deal with him. Maybe because his zoom calls were in his flames pajamas

The Great One
Scungilli Slushy

To me gathering numbers with arbitrary parameters produces no valuable conclusions

OriginalPouzar

I think I heard Gregor mention that physicals are tomorrow – will be interesting to hear if there is anything official said about Kane in the coming days.

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

In light of the news that darnell may not be ready i am unsure why stanny b has not got a PTO done with Giordano.

He fills a veteran componant for preseason games and scrimmages etc. If darnell is going to be out for a few weeks i would rather have a greybearded vet play real NHL minutes than throw noel hoefenmayer or ben gleason out there.

also having watched some marc lajoie he scores all his goals from deep in the ozone…. not as a dman walking the line etc. i wonder if they can see him becoming a patrick maroon type forward. Wingspan, shot, and size.

he definitely looks more lw than lhd to me.

Scungilli Slushy

They’re expecting Nurse back soon

OriginalPouzar

This was my response although, at the same time, I remember hearing every second day that Ekholm was close and we’d see him soon and then we didn’t until game 2 where he was still clearly laboring (or well out of game shape).

Scungilli Slushy

They would still hopefully have Ek Kulak Dermott, could be worse

OriginalPouzar

Berezkin keeps up his PPG with a third period assist (still ongoing, up 6-2).

Reja

The one one beef I have with the young stars tournament is there’s usually a few injuries because of the nature of how competitive these games are for certain individuals on the Canadian teams. This is a chance for the bruisers to smash and get noticed before some players are up to so called game speed.

Durag

Doesn’t even need to be a tournament. The Leafs’ 1st round pick got Ben Eagered in camp today.

OriginalPouzar

Some verification that Nurse was dealing with injury through the playoffs.

There was a fairly inconsequential hit in that early SCF game that put him out for the entire game – I think we now have verification that it aggravated something he was dealing with through the playoffs.

This doesn’t “excuse” his terrible playoffs but it is a mitigating factor to take in to account when discussing what a fully healthy Nurse should give the lineup.

It does need to be mentioned that, this very career-durable player (rarely misses games) has been highly limited due to injury for multiple playoff years.

Scungilli Slushy

This is the story of Oiler cup fortunes. Can they get through playoffs healthy enough to win it? I think they could have won one or both of the last two playoffs if they were less damaged

The Great One

You could say that about a few teams.

Would the Oilers have got past Vancouver with a healthy Demko, Pettersson and Boeser?

MushedPeas

Likely.

Scungilli Slushy

Maybe not, it was a weird series. My comment is based on it being 3 playoffs with injury issues to key players. Florida was too banged up to compete in the 23 finals, healthy this year. It’s our turn! Turns!

The Great One

The dice have no memory and building the oldest team in the league doesn’t augur well for staying healthy.

OriginalPouzar

Would it have even gone 5 games with a healthy McDavid?

Boeser missed one game – the Oilers beat a “with Boeser” 3 times.

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
The Great One

Blood clots are not known to arise overnight.

leadfarmer

Actually they are. In fact they can arise in something as short as a long car ride

Reja

Kane was the difference in the Florida series it took Leon’s accidental Messier like hit to get us going. The 3 Barbara Ann Scott’s are gone. Even Desi turned into a cream puff and was scratched against a physical forecheck.

Reja

With the nightmare start to the season the boys were chasing their tails for 95 games. With not being rammed up to the cap with a short roster allows us to rotate players in and out for rest periods. We might even be able to give players in the A that are playing well a cup of coffee and a paycheque. I know this is a foreign concept for us for the last few years but hopefully Bowman and the Committee aren’t as hard ass as the last administration.

Scungilli Slushy

Kenny was anything but hard ass, that was a part of the problem, he wouldn’t make room. The ass part was the Cap handing Kenny his in a hat

OriginalPouzar

We might even be able to give players in the A that are playing well a cup of coffee and a paycheque. 

This gets thrown out alot but its not often reasonably feasible for a team that is tight to the cap unless there are waivers exempt players they are willing to send down for these tryouts.

Also, they had the opportunity to bring Broberg up weeks before they did – they had their spot solidified but refused to give any of the d-men rest, or Broberg reps, until the last two games – it was mind-boggling.

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Traveller

On April 11, with 5 games to go in the schedule and having just beat Vegas 5-1, the Oilers still had a reasonable chance to overtake Vancouver, Winnipeg and Colorado in the standings. The Oilers had 2 games in hand on all of them and the coaches mind set was ice the available line up with the best chance to win.

If they had won all 5 they would have jumped all of those teams in the standings finishing 2nd in the Conference behind Dallas and 4th in the NHL. With that record, they would have had home ice even against Florida.

In hindsight, it didn’t work out, and maybe you would decide differently, but hardly mind-boggling that they waited till the last 2 games where their final place in the standings was mostly out of their control.

OriginalPouzar

It was certainly mind-boggling to me (along with various others who were wondering why the call-up, which the GM and head coach both said was coming) was taking so long – not to mention the fact that there were active d-men banged up during that period, missing practices, etc.

There is no hindsight – this positions was expressed at the time.

Sierra

What is the “verification” that it aggregated something Nurse had already been dealing with? I’m not saying it’s not there, I just haven’t heard or read that.

Last edited 2 months ago by Sierra
Scungilli Slushy

It’s out there he is still recovering from playoff injury, and might not start camp/play ex games

Reja

When Nurse got walked by I believe Verhaeghe in game 4 it reminded me of the end of Al Hamilton career when a Ranger walked him in like a 9-2 loss. If there wasn’t something wrong with Nurse hip we are in deep puppy doo-doo. Nurse has been rode hard it’s time to rest him up then give him some freedom with a stay at home partner.

Sierra

That’s it really what I asked. I am well aware that Nurse got injured on a hit in the corner against the Panthers. In his posting OP said there is “verification” that this aggravated an injury Nurse was dealing with through the playoffs.

What’s the verification that Nurse was playing an injury prior to that hit?

Last edited 2 months ago by Sierra
Todd Macallan

Great article from Drance at the Athletic today on top 10 prospects to watch in Penticton. Unsurprisingly all the higher end prospects for each team listed, but in addition to Savoie and Akey, he listed Jesse Heslop as well who is certainly the least heralded one there. Notable indeed.

ArmchairGM

No Jarventie is disappointing. Any word on his recovery?

Todd Macallan

Photos of him in full gear at the captain’s skate yesterday. A positive sign even if it may take several weeks or months to get up to full speed.

Reja

The trade did seem lopsided without a few strings attached.

rich tm

Want to say it was back in July, they talked about the trade for Jarventie on Jason Gregor’s show. He had someone on who mentioned that the knee injury was significant and he might not be until after the season gets started.

Essentially, it was trade of prospects with big question marks.

It’s why I’ve been fascinated that it has received so little attention, because it’s going to take him some time to get back up to speed physically.

OriginalPouzar

He’s been participating in the informal skates.

I reach out and was told he’s not invited due to having played two full pro seasons already.

I also am anxiously awaiting him being a full participant in main camp but there isn’t any indication otherwise.

ArmchairGM

Frankie Marrelli. Had to look him up, but he led his team in +/- as a 17/18 year old. His +30 last year was nearly double the next best teammates +16.

Seems like there’s something there.

LMHF#1

I’ve already nicknamed him Barstool in my mind in case he becomes a star.

€√¥£€^$

He was on my Draft list, I had him as going in either the 4th or 5th round, I was very surprised he went thru undrafted.

OriginalPouzar

Jayden Grubbe is 21 and is a big man in this group (6.03, 200). I’ll suggest that no prospect forward made more progress in the AHL last season than Grubbe. His future NHL role, should he get there, will be on a depth line, probably at center. He might be the new Jujhar Khaira in a couple of years, that kind of thing. He’s an impressive player.

I’ll throw Max Wanner in the conversation for prospect that made the most progress.

I wonder what Philp’s re-arrival does for Grubbe and if it even shifts him to the wing? I mean, if Savoie plays center, they’ve got Savoie, Philp, Pederson, Hamblin and Grubbe.

I would shift Hamblin or Pederson to the wing to allow the “real prospects” to play center.

Philp and O’Riley arriving are not great for Grubbe’s long-term changes. O’Riley is a few years away from being in the NHL conversation but Philp should hold the RC NHL spot until O’Riley is ready.

OriginalPouzar

Fair, enough, I missed that “forward” – my bad.

OriginalPouzar

Matt Savoie is 20 and undersized (5.10, 179) with fantastic skills. I appear to be the only one who sees this player as a strong point-per-game candidate in the AHL

My expectation for Savoie is at least a PPG and potentially something like 48 points in 43 games when the call-up comes.

A Stankoven-type rookie pro season is not unreasonable.

. If the Oilers plan to use him at center and fade his power-play time, he’ll probably land around 30 points over the season. If the club runs him on the wing with a strong center, and gives him PP time, he’s going to post some handsome numbers. I can see him getting NHL time this season.

Both Gretzky and Chaulk have talked about him getting a big role and lots of ice, along with Jarventie, if he/they are not in the NHL.

Does that mean PP1 or PP2 time?

What if he plays center along with, say, Jarventie (or Lavoie) and, hmmm, Griffith.

That would be an opportunity to produce, no?

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
rich tm

I have a lot of hope for Savoie, but am I the only person who worries that Chaulk will turn him into a checker and limit his offensive development?

OriginalPouzar

Chaulk and Gretzky have both talked about the big role and lots of ice he will get if he does not make the NHL team.

DevilsLettuce

If the Oilers go Elkholm hunting for a RD, Akey imo is going to be woven into that arrow.

ArmchairGM

Quite likely. I’m not sure how much value he has right now due to health issues though. By the time the deadline rolls around he may have a bunch of value again.

€√¥£€^$

IMO, Akey is a massive piece of the future.

Last edited 2 months ago by €√¥£€^$
LMHF#1

Didn’t look near good enough last year to be one. Maybe he improves a bunch…but they’ve missed on a lot of these swings lately.

OriginalPouzar

How did Akey look “not near good enough last year”. He was a star at rookie camp, he looked good in his one exhibition game and had a decent start to the OHL season prior to, first breaking his nose, and then the shoulder thing.

Lets not forget he’s very young for his draft calls – no eligible for the AHL in draft plus 1 or draft plus 2.

€√¥£€^$

He barely played due to injury, he has the skating and skill and looked very good in his 1 exhibition game….

jp

Thanks for the Penticton player rundown, LT. Very informative.

jp

Matt Savoie

I appear to be the only one who sees this player as a strong point-per-game candidate in the AHL

Really? I did not know there’s been push back or that level of skepticism on the player.

For whatever it’s worth, I agree with you.

And I also think/hope he gets NHL time this season.

Last edited 2 months ago by jp
defmn

I was about to make the same comment when I read yours. I thought everybody was on board with him having a great season and getting a call up late in the season.

Last edited 2 months ago by defmn
Scungilli Slushy

In the media his light has been dimming from when he was drafted

jp

The best WHL points/game outside Bedard in more than 20 years.

Not sure what the media was hoping for.

ArmchairGM

Ever since he got traded they’ve been fading him hard.

David

I agree. My guess would be a disappointing world juniors.

Lewis Grant

Also, in the WHL playoffs/Memorial Cup, Savoie was 3rd/4th in scoring on his team behind Firkus and Mateychuk. Granted, those two are good prospects too, but Firkus was a late first-rounder and Mateychuk is a defenseman.

OriginalPouzar

and I see no reason other than injury risk to have that light dimmed.

From accounts he dominated the rookie tournament last season and was on his way to making Buffalo (perhaps ahead of Benson) prior to getting hurt.

He then did very well in a short AHL stint (as a 19 year old, with no camp and coming off an injury) before lighting up the WHL.

OriginalPouzar

Both McDavid and Drai with contract quotes from NHL showcase when McDavid was asked if he felt a responsibility to set a new bar for rising salaries.

Drai stated he didn’t feel he pushed as much as he could but he’s happy with the deal.

McDavid was non-committal with regard to setting a new bar and spoke about what’s best for his family and for winning.

Waiting for a cup

I wonder if he might sign a contract that is exactly the same as Drai. Dare to dream.

John Chambers

I think McDavid is so dialed in to the culture of this club that he takes an identical $14M to Drai’s stack.

That sounds crazy, right?

There’s something about being “not above the team” reflected in both on-ice play and salary that would motivate him to take the same contract as 29. And since Draisaitl was so underpaid on his last contract ($32M total less than McDavid), $14M apiece enables them to end up closer in career earnings.

McDavid is all about the team, and being on the same plane as his buddy.

Scungilli Slushy

It was widely thought Drai was overpaid when he signed the last contract, he just out performed it. Worked out for the team, may have not worked out. Connor isn’t doing 14M, it will be 16-17 is my guess

They are both taking less than the max so in a sense it’s team friendly – so they can ‘win’. However I don’t think any player is worth max no matter how good, hockey isn’t a sport that can be driven by one or two players, as we know

OriginalPouzar

I can’t imagine that but I do think that $16MM might be a reasonable range.

MushedPeas

I’ve been dreaming exactly this since they confirmed the Drai number.

Scungilli Slushy

Not at you OP, but man I find the way those in and around hockey talk about contracts and the cap irritating. Holland talking about ‘raises’ was the worst. In essence pro athletes or any entertainment industry people paid by contract are mercenaries, win the last battle maybe you get more next time, based on what’s going on at the time

I love Connor of course, my favourite player, but talk about a ‘new bar’ could also take the shape of you didn’t get the most goals or points last season and don’t have a Cup, because nothing else matters in pro sports except championships, it’s the entire point of it. That’s his real responsibility – win cups. Personal accomplishments have no actual value to anyone but the player

90s fan

I think these conversations of a new bar kind of bring three different things to my mind:

1) A player setting the high bar as a personal accomplishment. These guys are competitive. This happens. Does McDavid care? Doubt it. He is so far above others, this is not a meaningful accomplishment for him. (he WILL set a new bar though)

2) A player setting the high bar as a way of paving the way for others. This seemed like it may have been one thing that happened when Babcock signed for big in TO. Paving the way for fellow coaches to get compensated more fairly. This is important when there is not equity. Womens soccer in Canada perhaps? Certainly does not apply to NHL superstars setting high bars.

3) Just getting what you can get. I mean we all want to maintain, and even enhance our standard of living, and set ourselves and our families up well for the future. How much of a raise does Connor need to keep up with inflation? Probably needs more than 14M. I think this way with my own pay, why wouldn’t Connor, just in a scaled up conversation.

The players don’t even really need to push do they? Their agents would have the important conversations, give advice etc. Connor would have to actually have a conversation with his agent about holding back. He would actively have to push for less. That would be something. (Note those other players who took less, had to to be a part of this team. Connor does not have to take less to be a part of this team. I think there is a difference there.)

Scungilli Slushy

What I find unappealing in how it’s talked about is equating pay from one of the 4 major NA sports with working people, the vast majority of people. It happens because things get brought to the conversation that don’t belong there as time goes by, and it rarely gets punted back out because it’s not worth it to the media people. If they offended players talking about it they can lose access. Or they might not be informed or smart enough to figure it out

I don’t often hear wealthy people in business talk about their income as if they are making typical incomes. They know it would be offensive, if anything they qualify that they aren’t affected by inflation personally. I can see a player wanting to make the most money because they think they are the best or are competitive that way. In hockey it would also be selfish, because the team and their team mates would suffer

There is no ‘fair’ pay level in the NHL. They are all paid very well. The worst player makes ~1M CDN a season. As the league grows and becomes more competitive because there is more money to be made, players coaches and staff will see higher pay as time goes by. There is a cap limiting things, but 1M becomes 1.5M becomes 2M. Those are huge increases compared to wage earners

In pro sports there can’t be equity between sports or men vs women. Pay is based on revenue and profits. More profits, more competition, higher pay. Profits pay for it, they have to be there in the first place. If we’re talking about ‘amateur’ sports like women’s national team soccer etc, there is an argument to be made for equity for sure, because tax payers are funding it mostly

LMHF#1

The concept of a giant defenceman leading his WHL team (no matter how weak) in goals is rather fascinating. Would need to see how he scored them to make any kind of call on what we’re looking at here.

Also worth considering a forward conversion if there’s any question about how he defends/first passes.

A 6’7” winger crashing down on the forecheck, blocking out the sun in front and then finishing could be big time found money.

LMHF#1

Found em. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCLFH_BmAHc

Almost all from what could be described as a forward’s position. Many on the powerplay. Almost all shots.

I think he’s ultimately a forward based on that video.

Last edited 2 months ago by LMHF#1
frjohnk

Beau Akey missed his 15 year old season due to Covid and most of his 18 year old season.
Those are 2 peak development years lost for this kid. I think most would agree he is a good prospect, but losing that kind of development time stunts the peak of a player.

Scungilli Slushy

If Nurse isn’t ready for camp at this point it’s concerning. 10 days until the first pre season game. Leave him out until 100% please, I doubt there’s enough time to be close to 100% if he’s not now

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

The Nurse story should be way bigger news imo.

For all the issues with his contract, he fills a big role and the Oilers are not exactly deep at D.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Absolutely no way he should play a game this year until he is 100%. Way to valuable to this team when the games really matter and his struggles in the playoffs due to injury were “material” and a significant factor in Stanley surfing off the coast of FLA rather than bouncing around downtown Edmonton.

OriginalPouzar

Its interesting that he’s been taking part in most of the skates and doesn’t seem limited at all (from accounts) but won’t be a full participant for the start of camp.

Of course, no contact or crazy battles during the informal skates.

To cite he’s expected to join camp part way through is interesting.

Lets all not forget how short the off-season was for these guys. Drai himself said earlier in the week he wish he had three more weeks to get ready.

OriginalPouzar

Escott mentioned last night that Akey may. It participate on ice this weekend. A bit disappointing as I believe surgery was last November.

CruJones

Packing up the family and heading to Penticton tomorrow to take in a couple games. Haven’t been since McDavid was there. Looking forward to it.

CruJones

I’ll do what I can. Kids wanted to sit along the glass in the corner for one game, so I’ll deliver some reporting on net front happenings. We’re up a little higher for the Saturday game.

Definitely a good time though. Last time we went, I remember seeing tons of coaching and management staff walking around the building. My kids (who were then babies) made it on TV in their tiny McDavid jerseys. All for around $20 for any seat in the building.

Last edited 2 months ago by CruJones
defmn

It’s a great time for sure. I’ll bet your kids will talk about it for a long time.

Not sure if it is in the cards for you being there with your kids but a lot of the media like to drink late into the night and they have great stories. 😇