The Edmonton Oilers won a big game last night, against a tough club in the Los Angeles Kings. It was close for more than two periods, with the visitors having the edge in play. Evan Bouchard, the No. 10 overall pick in 2018, had an impact at both ends of the ice and was, at the end of the day, one of the reasons for Edmonton’s win. You know, the Oilers picked impact players in 2014, 2015 and 2018. We know high picks usually work out, but the No. 10 overall pick in 2018 has the look of a top-five overall at this time. This season is an important step for the young blue.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Goals aren’t coming for Connor McDavid. He’s helping the Oilers more than ever
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Connor Brown and what’s next in his unusual season
- DNB: Oilers desperate to return to winning ways after dreadful loss to Flames
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is stalling in the AHL
- New DNB: The Flames are shopping Chris Tanev. Do the Oilers have what it takes to get him?
- Lowetide: How can Brad Holland and Oilers pro scouts impact trade deadline?
- New DNB: Why the Oilers shouldn’t trade Warren Foegele before the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Why this Oilers-Bruins 4-player trade makes sense for both teams
- Lowetide: Oilers vs. Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Final? It’d be a fever dream
- Lowetide: Ranking 5 right-handed defenders the Oilers should target in a trade
- New DNB: Why a scoring winger should be the Oilers’ top trade deadline priority
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- DNB: Philip Broberg is showing his promise: Will NHL opportunity come with the Oilers or elsewhere?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 1-2-1)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 5-5-1, 11 points in 11 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 34-20-2, 70 points in 56 games
The margin is still razor thin between second-place Vegas and fourth-place Los Angeles, but Edmonton’s situation is the best in the group. The Oilers are now two points ahead of LA with a game in hand, and just one point behind Vegas with two games in hand. By points percentage, Edmonton is de facto second place this morning.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner played very well and looked sharp throughout the contest. It was an important game and he rose to the occasion, Edmonton’s goaltending has been leaking a little since the AS break. I’m a fan of Skinner, his work on the btb PK’s will be forgotten soon but for me he was key to the win.
The two GA involved mistakes by the Nurse-Ceci tandem (there was a lineup as long as the Woodward’s food floor cheese counter at Southgate back in the day) and by Evan Bouchard. Single events in a game can have enormous impact, while also being single events. I know we’ll spend all day hammering the second pairing, but consider Nurse’s most common linemates (Nuge, Kane, McLeod) compared to Mattias Ekholm (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman) and further ponder than Ekholm spent almost 70 percent of his five-on-five time with the supergroup trio.
I know Ceci is struggling but we need to put these things into context. I have zero doubt running the McDavid line with the Bouchard duo is best practices, but I do think that we should consider Ceci’s 28-27 five-on-five goal share without the captain as a success this season. I think many of you are not giving Ceci a fair shake. I do think Tanev in and Ceci out could make a difference, but you could also say Ceci might be more effective with another partner, too. I think the Ceci downbeat ignores some things, like a 50 percent Dangerous Fenwick versus elites playing without McDavid (217 minutes). That’s something, you know.
Connor McDavid having the puck come to him in excactly the right moment for a quick pass to Zach Hyman was pure comedy unless you’re the Los Angeles Kings. I thought the top line was brilliant last night, Leon Draisaitl was so damn good. I always list these items, because they’re important:
- McDavid-Draisaitl five-on-five: 59.5 percent (22-15)
- McDavid solo five-on-five: 57 percent (40-30)
- Draisaitl solo five-on-five: 56 percent (28-22)
In the words of The Band, it makes no difference. Is it inefficent? Yeah. The glimmer twins together score 4.25 goals-60, McDavid solo 4.17 goals-60. If it’s an effort to get one or the other going, music! Otherwise, the numbers don’t support such a move. While we are here, let’s list the centers and their totals on ice at five-on-five:
- McDavid-Draisaitl: 59.5 percent (22-15)
- McDavid solo: 57 percent (40-30)
- Draisaitl solo: 56 percent (28-22)
- Nuge solo: 51.9 percent (14-13)
- McLeod solo: 43.5 percent (10-13)
- Ryan solo: 33.3 percent (5-10)
I think the Oilers do need a RH fourth-line center but Ryan is doing a great job there on the PK so what do I know? Speed is required for the bottom six, pretty sure. I think many people are overlooking Ryan McLeod again. He’s good. He’s a suitor! He’s bona fide. Quick notes on the wingers:
- Zach Hyman has done everything but solve world peace since arriving in Edmonton. What a wonderful player.
- Evander Kane can shoot the puck holy hell.
- Warren Foegele damn near cashed, I think that line earned a goal that didn’t come.
- Corey Perry appears to have hit a wall.
- Mattias Janmark is stepping in to the Jaroslav Pouzar role. Wildly effective and fans can’t wait to get him off the roster. 3-1-4 in his last five games, people.
- Dylan Holloway is a rambunctious player, bounding from event to event with the zeal of youth. I think he can score, but I don’t know it.
- Connor Brown made a nice play and remains a part of the starting 12. I wrote about him at The Athletic, there’s every chance his judgement cometh and right soon but man if he popped 3-1-4 in five games I think he’d survive the deadline without a throw.
A busy show on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm today on Sports 1440. We’ll be joined by Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic, to talk about the win versus LAK, McDavid’s apples and the trade deadline. We’ll also talk Jays, NBA and Oil Kings. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
.
Zach Hyman, everyone
did I miss something on drais penalty? Looked pretty weak
O zone penalty. Not good.
Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
Trade call still pending but hearing Chris Tanev is being traded to Dallas
@frank_seravalli
Flames are getting a 2nd round pick, a prospect and an additional conditional pick in exchange for Chris Tanev.
Nugent-Bowman reporting on with LT a couple more weeks for Broberg and Chaulk said today he’s week to week.
Hamblin out at least a few more weeks.
Lavoie “living on the PP” – he has 1 even strength goal in the last 24. He had triple the primary scoring chances in games 1-5 than he has in the last 5 game. Needs to drive the net more and he knows it. Needs to hard on pucks.
Concussion for Broberg?
Pretty sure it’s a charley horse/bruise.
Shoulda traded him when we had the chance. Bandaid Broberg will have the same career as HH’s favorite Bowen Byram, in fact with a card like this maybe the Avs would go one for one to give each guy a fresh start?
https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/1761517408496263413?s=46&t=eJhhNPA4I32vVTDvo2_ETA
When one is playing 25 minutes a game in the AHL as a dominant player, one is going to be a target of AHL ruffians. Broberg was too good for the AHL.
Another reason it was misguided not to play him in the NHL.
When a young player is ready, you play him.
I agree the AHL can be a rougher league but I also watched the hit. He had his head in the wrong spot again coming around the net.
Like Holloway you gotta learn to protect yourself and its three years running now that he’s been blown up and missed time.
That’s ridiculous Godot. How many years in and Broberg is still putting himself in dangerous positions. If he can’t protect himself in the AHL, how is going to do it in the NHL with bigger, faster men?
Dear Lowetide,
I was listening to your show today via podcast where you were discussing Bouchard and his on-ice stats, and that our brains are “lying to us” when we see his defensive errors as a problem (because he out-creates his mistakes when playing with McDavid).
I can’t give a Dad talk, and I’m all out of fire and brimstone for a come to Jesus moment. But I can channel a little Facts of Life.
(You take the good.)
Bouchard has impeccable on-ice shot-metrics and expected goals. WOWY’s with 97 are, as Borat would say, “very nice”.
(You take the bad.)
But the goal share WOWYs are not as Blaire Warner perfect. Bouchard has a troublesome goal share without Ekholm and McDavid. Over the larger sample of two seasons, when Ekholm isn’t on the ice Bouchard tilts the goal share against Connor. The cause of this is quite obviously the big mistake. We can argue about whether or not this sample is fair (as you may know I like to argue) or due to the difficult part of the beginning of last season (before Ekholm came to Edmonton). But even this season without McDavid or Ekholm, Bouchard posts a negative goal share.
There’s some decent evidence here that Ekholm is a significant driver of the positive Bouchard effect on McDavid, see for example the 100% goal share this season over 28 minutes. (Should we also argue that Ekhom’s 33% without McDavid and Bouchard this season is a problem?)
Please tell your co-hosts that the lies in their brains actually show in the analysis.
P.S. Your voice sounds great. It sounded good on the RE-20 at 1260, and sounds really sweet through the SM7 at 1440.
Bouchard has played 91 minutes at five-on-five w/o McDavid and Ekholm. Small sample. He is 3-4 in those minutes with an expected goal pct of 68. Bouchard is legit. I know people don’t want to admit it but it’s true.
That’s this season.
The first table above is across the past two seasons: Bouchard without McDavid & Ekholm is -6, 45% goal share over 745 minutes. That’s a significant sample. Your jr. co-host’s brain is not lying to him. The large mistake shows in the analysis. GF% is not a shining as xGF% with Bouchard. It’s also evident in Bouchard’s on-ice SV% (real in large samples – see David Johnson).
The stats say that when you put the two players together that you get a higher event game, with GA60 rising to 3.91 per 60 vs 3 GA60 for McDavid without Bouchard. That also aligns with what your jr. host was saying.
There is a bit of chicken and egg there though, as I’m certain you realize, as McDavid and Bouchard are also placed together when chasing and needing to score. But the volatility that we see – the cheating for offense – is the temptation that this team struggles with. Bouchard and McDavid together play right into that high event style: live by the sword, die by the sword so to speak.
I think the lie is that Bouchard can sustain a high 5v5 GF% without these star players. He still drives a high event style but without the finishing that allows him to out-score his mistakes. xGF% remains strong because of his drive of possession and high shot rate, but GF% collapses because of lack of finishing without McDavid and lack of careful defense with Ekholm.
Ekholm is to Bouchard as Huddy was Coffey. As soon as Coffey was pulled apart from Huddy he became a negative player on Lemieux’s Penguins, -18 the season he won the cup with them.
Bouchard is legit, but he’s likely to always be volatile. At least, he’s as legit as Paul Coffey. I agree that Bouchard will get 10M. And further to that point, he’s being placed in the position to get that pay day.
The lies that my brain is whispering tell me that the cost is more likely to be Draisaitl than Nurse. But I have no evidence for that, other than Draisaitl saying he will “do what’s best for him.”
There’s zero doubt Bouchard has improved season over season. We are seeing him blossom. Last season proves he has taken a step forward.
Right, so in both seasons without McDavid or Ekholm Bouchard’s goal share is negative. And this is so in a large sample of over 700 minutes across both seasons.
Additionally he’s being deployed for a large pay day. And that pay day will conflict with Draisaitl’s.
Those are the facts of life.
I don’t see the large mistake getting better. It comes and goes. And with an elevated Bouchard, the Oilers propensity for large mistakes has come to typify their season in the negative crests.
The Oilers struggle to play patient hockey with Bouchard in the first pairing and power play. In fact, the entire team plays like Bouchard. At times foolish and at times brilliant. When they play like Ekholm, they become a cup contender. But this is so far in the minority with this team.
I don’t know how closely you follow the comments here, seems pretty close. I’m not anti-Bouchard. Here is the song I wrote for him for the comments section after the last game. I’m just trying to be a realist and articulate a different perspective, and defend part of what your jr. co host was saying.
Riddle me this. Stauffer was commenting that he used to go on Zoom calls and tell Davd Tippett that he needed elevate Bouchard over Bear and Jones. He was implying that Tippett held back Bouchard’s development.
But after elevating Bouchard, what happened to Woodcroft? I wouldn’t say that the feast and famine high-event style that got Woodcroft fired at the start of this season was entirely Bouchard’s fault. But I would say that the team’s play was “Bouchardian.”
Maybe Dave Tippett understands more about hockey than Bob Stauffer, and he just wanted to keep his job. It’s safe enough to say that the way that McDavid plays or doesn’t can set the tone for the team, and that Bouchard’s influence when McDavid is on the ice is strong enough to set the tone of play for others.
I don’t know what to tell you. We see Bouchard differently. I wish you the best.
A proposal……
Ceci and Janmark to OTT for Tarasenko with 50% retained. OTT could use a top 4 RHD (who doesn’t) and it gives us an extra $750,000 to play with. Ceci has real value in this league and we probably have to trade him next summer anyway.
#1 pick for Tanev with 50% retained. Give the bastards their price as long as they retain 50%. This is the Ceci upgrade
Bourgault to WAS for Dowd. That’s a nice haul for Dowd who has another year at an affordable price.
I think the cap works on this – might have to send Gagner down until the playoffs – but that is no big deal.
Kane McDavid Hyman
RNH Drai Tank
Fog McLeod Brown
Holloway Dowd Perry/Ryan
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Tanev
Kulak Desharnais
Broberg
Skinner/Campbell/Pickard
I’m not sure the Sens would have interest in Ceci – they seem loaded with good young d-men.
I don’t imagine for a second that Bourgault is enough for Dowd – rumor has it Dowd could get a 1st round pick and Bourgault is nowhere near 1st round value, likely not even worth 2nd round value at this point.
Dowd is an older 4th liner. I’ll be stunned if he gets a 1st round pick. WAS can ask but what they receive is another thing. He is also injured. I guess we will see in a week.
OTT has a lot of LHD, but not much in the way of RHD, and Ceci’s value should be near Tanev’s given the lower salary, extra year of control and decent performance. All decent RHD are valuable. With Zub out there are running a rookie (Bernard-Docker) and Hamonic in their top 4 with a LHD (Brannstrom) as their 3RHD. That is awful so Ceci would be useful. History may or may not be helpful.
Even if Dowd doesn’t quite fetch a first round pick, and I agree that he may not, he is still a fairly coveted player (from accounts) and, if we are being honest, Bourgault has very little trade value. I would suggest that all teams that are willing to put in a real offer could/would offer up more than a C prospect (B- at best) in Bourgault.
Hard to say what value Dowd (who is injured) or Borg has right now – but Borg is a guy I’m comfortable moving as a throw-in to get a rental. He’s still young and was well regarded until recently. A guy someone might take a chance on to buy low if it only costs a rental.
Keep Janmark send out Brown
I think your reasoning is fairly sound here, but I’m not sure your math is. You have $6.05M coming in and $4.25M going out, and sending Gagner to Bakersfield doesn’t make up the difference.
As an aside, I think Ceci to Ottawa would be a pretty mean thing to do – Staos might like him but Sens fans would be deliriously upset. They hate Ceci with a passion there.
The Oilers can fit in that delta in annual cap hit today. The Oilers can add apx $1.95MM of annual cap hit today.
Ceci does have value, I like the creative thinking. Two other spots that might value him are Buffalo and Seattle. Couldn’t come up with a move for Buffalo. But I could see Eberle 50% retained for Ceci. A decent upgrade on RW without using a pick, nice.
Of course there needs to be a plan to sign or replace Tanev in the office season. Since no one is offering Calgary the first, I wonder if they would let Kenny talk to his agent and see ballpark what signing him looks like.
Pretty much impossible to trade Ceci for a better RHD – so you would have to make two moves. Ceci out for cap space and assets and Tanev in for assets. Would Tanev resign for Ceci money next year……who knows?
LA & Flames tied @ 1, nearing end of 2nd. This time of year lots of weird wishes are made, so please forgive me … Go Flames (spits).
Final 4-2 flames
This has many benefits: of course the LAK loss and the flames need to accumulate enough points to finish one spot out of the playoffs (and maybe even alter their plans to see everyone and bring everyone back on longer term contracts for perpetual mediocrity)
I have a text group my brother started with a really odd cross section of people he knew that were all oiler fans. After he passed we all agreed we’d keep it going for him…and all try to pitch in a bit more commentary as he was definitely main force driving it. Anyway he used to do this joking “keys to the game” thing during the mystery 20 minutes before game actually started. I did one last night:
As long they don’t spot them more than a 2 goal lead coming out of 1st period they will surely win.
Nailed it.
https://twitter.com/oldhockeycards/status/1762640223274754536
Fantastic follow
Interesting player Mark Kastelic
Could be a Kevin Mclelland type. If so, he might be just what the Oilers need.
Good skater, great on faceoffs
What are his boxcars and fancies like?
What role would you see him playing?
Acquisition cost?
Wasn’t able to catch the game; did I miss any stick flipping? 🙂
If Evander Kane is creating a ruckus about playing on the third line, he may find himself on another team after the deadline.
Ha s a NMC
He could always waive it.
Is there something recent that I’ve missed? Or are you going back to an old, over-exaggerated chestnut from literally one point early on in the season (IE ancient history)?
There is video of a heated exchange with Drai and some are running with it as evidence of Kane not being happy and being a problem in the locker room.
There is also video of Drai yelling at Gully after he scored a few games ago.
Maybe Kane isn’t the pissy one?
I would move on from him even though he’s one of our few goals scorers. Terrible defensively and power forwards in their 30s is just too risky.
Kane has been a gift to this team and he is producing. When the team gets in a funk or there is business to conduct, Kane shows up. As long as he’s contributing positively commensurate with his salary and batting order and playing nice with others keep him.
One of the things I’ve enjoyed about these Oilers is the GM problem solving. When McDavid got here we were a weak team getting pushed around. No top 4D, only offense off the rush, broken PK, d that couldn’t move the puck, net negative contributions from the bottom 6 forwards, no depth at RW, no starting goalie. Not even a full top6 forwards. Slowly each issue has been improved and some areas solved!
I would hate to see regression in the toughness area which would likely happen if we loose Kane.
Ryan wasn’t on the ice at practice today but coach says he’ll be on the ice tomorrow and playing on Wed!
Skinner was in the “starters’ net”.
They need to continue to management his minutes and Pickard will continue to play more but they do have 2 days off after this game and Stu was excellent and not fatigued last night.
With the back to backs this weekend, if Picks played tomorrow then he’d play 2 of 3 and that’s not required.
Throwing this out there… how much would you pay for Saros (50% retained), O’Rielly, Novak, and Carrier out of Nashville in one big trade? AND, they’d take Campbell and Foegele back as part of it! Haha. Would 3 firsts, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, Bourgault, and Rodrigue do it? And would they give Edmonton 3 fifths, 3 sixths, and 1 seventh so Edmonton can at least draft for long shots for the next 3 years?
Saros has an extra year on his deal for $5 million.
That means that Nashville would have to pay $2.5m in real money for the last year of the contract plus what half of what he’s owed at the deadline (550k)
Looking at the last year of the contract alone, that’s $2.5m both in retained cap and actual dollars.
Given that the Hurricanes charged a 1st round pick to take on Marleau’s contract, which cost them $833k in real dollars and it cost them $6.25m in cap penalty x 1 year…
In comparison, retaining salary on Saros would cost 3.6 times as much in real cash, but only 40% as much in cap penalty, would would that cost?
You’re looking at a 1st round pick plus for that retention alone, then you still have to trade assets for Saros… then. You need to pay assets to take on Jack Campbell’s contract. (3 more years at $5m).
Forget the other pieces, the Oilers don’t have the assets to dump Campbell and get Saros at 50% retained.
Found this on LT’s Twitter timeline.
https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief
It has 3 years of Campbell contact traceable for the low price of a #14 overall pick. I’m not sure I’d buy that.
Holloway wouldn’t go 14th again in a redraft.
Not sure how well it’s aged, but a nice Canadian-content album for 1983. “Where Is This Love” is the highlight but some other nice stuff including a pretty decent Christmas tune.
We can always rely on LT to remember the music we’ve temporarily let slip from our collective consciousness.
Martin Necas has fallen out of favour, he would be a 25 + goal scorer playing with Draisaitl .
Sharangovich looked dangerous whenever we play the flames. – 20 goal scorer
Alexander Holtz has stalled out in Jersey. But he looks ready to make a huge jump offensively. Rumor has it they would part with him
Even Kaliyev , the Kings can only find a fourth line role for him, yet have him in the PP. The kid can score.
I would love to land one of these youthful offensive talents but sigh….cap hit and not exactly two way responsible.
The Mark Letestu role……
Wait, I don’t follow,
what would these youngsters have in common with Letestu?
Arthur K. – 4th liner and PP shooter – just like Letestu was.
Brady Tkachuk is the correct answer, but I can’t see Staios wanting much of what Edmonton has to offer, or Holland being able to manage his cap hit.
Stars call up Stankoven and he puts up 1G/1A in his second game. Guess what? He was put with Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston and got 15 minutes of ice.
Could you imagine Savoie being called up and being played with Nuge and Hyman (I acknowledge that Savoie isn’t near the same class of skill but I was going for a smallish 2nd year guy).
Imagine playing Lavoie with some real skill in the middle six.
Or maybe imagine drafting Stankoven in the second round himself
Lots of teams passing on small players in recent years only to miss out – Debrincat, Caulfield now this kid,
Oilers get wise to this and draft… Yamamoto sigh
Agreed; the never ending search for a 2nd line winger involves rotating players who have arguably already reached their ceiling.
Give a young guy a go; what’s the worst that can happen? They also don’t succeed…then at least the team knows.
Skippy… Skippy… Skippy the bush kangaroo!
Skippy… Skippy… Skippy a friend ever true!
The difference being Stankoven was leading the AHL in scoring when he got called up.
Clearly a much more talented player.
Of course, my post acknowledged that – the premise of not requiring young offensive players to prove they can make something happen with aging 4th line tweeners before they get a shot up the lineup stands though, in my opinon.
Shouldn’t the player at least show a pulse in the AHL first?
Who are you talking about? Savoie of Lavoie?
Bouchard is making great progress over the past two years defensively. The offensive flair was always there and is also improving, but the defense wasn’t. However he is still prone to frequent brain cramps that cost goals. Nurse had the same problem at Bouchard’s age and now Nurse is pretty consistent and reliable defensively.
Bouchard’s play on the second goal is indefensible. I think he rests too much on the ice. Not his legs, but his mind. He sees the puck going up the ice and he just kind of goes into lizard mode instead of head on a swivel mode and then can’t see where the danger may lie. There is no doubt this part of his game is improving, but that goal against last night could have been costly.
The Oilers can outscore that mistake in the regular season, but when the opportunities to score are few and far between in tight checking playoff games, I think that is going to hurt us. This team badly needs the 28 year old version, or better yet the 32 year old version of Evan Bouchard.
Bouchard is a wonderful talent. I think he breaks our hearts this spring.
Nurse still makes boneheaded pinches at the wrong time.
The game slows down for some, and they more reflexively learn when to pinch and when not to … but offensive D still have a higher risk ratio than the stay-at-home type. On the other hand, they can also win a game for you like Bouch did last night.
When a player has a rare ability like Bouch’s shot you find a way to make it work
I suppose he’s Connor’s Coffey of sorts
Playoff Roster
Kane. McDavid. Hyman
Nuge. Draisaitl. ? ?
Holloway MacLeod. Foegele
Janmark ? ? Perry
spare parts
Ryan. Brown. Hamblin Gagner
Ekholm. Bouchard
Nurse. ??
Kulak. Desharnais
spare parts
Ceci. Broberg
Skinner / Pickard
Campbell
This is kind of where I would have everyone slotted on the depth chart. The easiest gap to fill from the parts bin is Ceci at #2LHD which is not perfect but acceptable.
The hardest gap to fill is the right winger for top 6, so that is where the money should go.
I would also like to find out if I missed anything with Holloway or Broberg. So I would have Holloway up with Draisaitl and Broberg replacing Kulak for a couple games and playing with Nurse for a couple of games. Get Broberg a good 6-7 games in asap.
Need a 3 rd line C man over McLeod for the playoffs that will go to the net and play a bit more physical on a regular basis
Playing/favoring Bjugstad over McLeod is one of the reasons the OIlers lost the series to Vegas last year.
Often actual talent and ability is more important than experience in the playoffs, especially when the margin between two teams is very small. It is why it is important to get young more talented able young players as much experience as possible during the regular season, instead of riding old horses during the regular season.
Bjugstad got killed in the playoffs last season when he was moved in to the top six and i agree that McLeod has under-played (along with Broberg).
I thought McLeod may have been the most physical forward last night – he threw at least 3-4 hits on the forecheck and was creating turnovers.
Yes, the key in the above is the phrase “on a regular basis” but I do think that McLeod was more consistently physical in the playoffs last season.
Foegele/McLeod/Ryan couldn’t piss a drop but they played in the offensive zone most of the time.
I’m not convinced anyone available in the trade market is an upgrade on Ceci, but there are definitely upgrades on Desharnais. Kulak-Carrier would be a nice 3rd pair.
Who is the best RW option out there? I would say it’s Vatrano. He’s got 26 goals (on pace for 37) and his cap hit is only $3.65. Plus, he doesn’t have the reputation of a Guentzel or Tarasenko, so he may not cost as much in assets. Hes also the speediest of those available, which fits well with the Oilers. He has more goals than the older and more expensive Guentzel, Buchnevich, Tarasenko, and Henrique. Thye all have cap hits between $5.0 and $6.0. Duclair would be an interesting gamble as well as even though he isn’t scoring great this year, he has in the recent past and his rough and speedy style would suit the Oilers well for a playoff run. $3.0 cap hit for Duclair.
From Capfriendly’s scouting report:
“Vatrano looks like a man on a mission to start the 23/24 season.
He’s always provided goal scoring. He’s a shooter more than a distributor. He can play quick and fast … and become a transition threat when skating between the blue lines with the puck on his stick. He’s also not shy about chipping pucks deep and pressing the play as F1 on the forecheck.
What’s most impressive, so far this year, is his commitment to detail defensively. He finished last season (-29). He’ already (+5) this season and being used in a variety of roles.
Vatrano has a lethal one-timer from the weak side flank on the PP. He beats goalies clean from range.
Through his first 14GP he’s averaging 18:19 TOI – 13:31 ES – 2:16 PP – 2:31 SH
He’s scored 11G – 4A and been credited with 22 hits and 17 shot blocks
He’s competing in all three zones and always involved.”
Hmmm. I can see what you did there. He looks like a good forward play, looks like a good middle six winger, similar age and cost to Foegele and one more year of team control… perhaps on the third line with Foegele, with either of them moving up to line 2 when they are running hot?
Vatrano is an interesting player. Do you think he can handle top-6 minutes?
OTT is reported to be asking a second round pick and a prospect, possibly a bit more for retention. That doesn’t seem too hefty a cost, what do you reckon Vatrano would come in at?
Vatrano isn’t a rental and is signed to a bargain contract through next season – I would think the cost would be hefty.
Vatrano sounds like a decent solution
He’s also signed for one more season at that bargain cap hit which will make him cost materially more than either of the UFA rental wingers mentioned, I would think
Vatrano is also getting a lot of his boxcars from opportunities he likely wouldn’t get in Edmonton, such as the PP / EN and 3v3 situations.
5v5: 10-10-20, 58.82 IPP
PP: 10-6-16
PK: 2-1-3
3v3: 2-1-3
EN: 2-1-3
For reference Foegele is 11-15-26 at 5v5 in 50 fewer minutes, with an 81.25 IPP.
Vatrano appears to be a middle-6 winger who is getting offensive opportunities because he plays on a terrible team. Caveat Emptor.
NST comparison here:
https://naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&p1=8478366&p2=8477998&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single
For me it’s not that Ceci is bad, or Des is bad, it’s that they aren’t good at some basics that would make the team better
Maybe there is nothing to do, and they can win with this group. If everything goes their way
And the coaches make the correct adjustments. I think the main thing for the two is they don’t play at a high tempo, and the forwards need that to be ant their best. Also the mediocre passing. Des was missing some easy ones. As has been said, when the pace and intensity go up, I think they will be in a tough spot
Skating is a big part of passing. Bouch can move well, and creates his lanes. So does Ekholm. If you are a not fast straight ahead skater, sometimes there isn’t a lot of options or clear lanes
I think a Desharnais needs to remember his strengths. Of course he wants to get better all around and he is. But the giant physical dman draped all over opposing players like seaweed was completely smothering and infuriating the opposition.
He’s confident to the point of too much. It’s how he’s risen up
However hearing him talk about the upcoming offensive side was a bit much for me
Let’s start with clean passes and consistent NHL puck management and defensive duties, like being strong on defending the blue and retrievals, the bones of the game
He does well by numbers 3rd pair, but Kulak is a big part of it. The wobble needs to be conquered first. Coffey talking about making plays wasn’t that they all become offensive, it was about not just clearing the zone and losing possession
And perhaps taking opportunities if they arise
Bouchard has 62 points and is now tied with Pronger for the 9th best offensive season for a defenseman in Oilers history. He needs one more point to tie Huddy, and 7 to catch Siltanen. Seems like only a matter of time.
Eight more points leaves him behind only 6 guys named Paul Coffey.
Also worth noting…
Oilers career stats:
So, they’re tied in goals, and Evan only needs 6 points to tie, having gotten to this point with fewer PIMs and a substantially better +/- rating.
I was happy they played better and everyone showed up
I really liked them scoring two goals that you need in your bag of tricks to attack teams like Vegas. Players supporting the puck carrier in the correct position at the right time, able to execute the deflections
Good on Brown hitting Nuge so well. Drai going to the front and staying out far enough to get a clean one was great, I think often guys are too close in, there is no pass to them or real good chance for them if they get a puck
While the Kings were solid in the N zone, they left space in the D zone, and that will get you against the Oilers. Of course we left lots of space in the D zone, it worked out
Listening to Lawton on the radio, he has Florida as the best team. Also says if the Oilers upgrade their top 4 they’re his other pick.
Really hoping to see Florida play Toronto in Round 1.
My palms are burning with hand rubbing agreement.
Why does that phrasing leave me with a disturbing mental image? Is it just me, or does that read as bad as I an thinking? 😂
Crazy that Florida has Niko Mikkola in their top 4 (and rode 36-year old Marc Staal to the finals last year) yet folks are talking about the Oilers weakness in their top 4.
It might be because Florida has 3 elite top pairing quality D in their top 4.
Gustav Forsling is just ridiculous.
GF% 69.01
Leads the league at +40
Yes, Forsling is good, and also on a crazy PDO heater.
Not really.
1.036 is pretty much in line with his career numbers.
1.036 is his career high.
Prior to this season his career PDO was 1.010 (rounding up).
Let’s recognize LA’s strengths. They play a structured system based game, and it works.
The play, 1-3-1 defensively. This allows one man back for dump ins and allows a quick break out. They hold the blue line very strongly because of that man back. If they’re caught in their own end, they collapse around the net and hold you pull into the outside.
Offensively 2man aggressive forecheck with defenceman pension. They are not highly creative, but they take their shots in a crash the net.
They play a very patient game sticking with the system and waiting for mistakes. The opposition gets frustrated makes a mistake and they capitalize.
The interfere, interrupt to get in skating lanes. They are a general nuisance, disrupting the flow wherever they can wave from the Puck. They do this so often becomes the norm and the referees don’t know how to call it.
Oilers play a creative game, much less structured. Their weakness is they are impatient, as we know, they always want to make a play.
Post game the zNuge said it, they have to be patient and play mistake free.
Play the boring game, exchanging possession and wait for opportunity. They really have to show up to contest these puck battles and compete for every inch of ice.
If they can do a quick break out to beat two men forecheck, it also nullifies the 131.
The other thing that beats the LA game? Playing from behind. As soon as they need a goal they have to step outside their structure and mistakes happen.
In such a game I could understand why Leon-Connor-Zach might be an advantage to gain an early lead, with the other lines playing the patient dump and chase game.
I really enjoyed the game and while it’s not easy, Oilers showed they can beat that game plan. Still, that looks to be a 7 game series.
great analysis – Oilers have the personnel to breach the 3 in the middle of that set-up with speed and close puck support – once they committed to this, they got few clean 2 vs 1’s (and 29’s 1vs1) scoring chances
Playoff simulator: first round is tied 1-1.
Since Dec 1 when the teams results started to normalize:
Ekholm: 62%GF, 62%xGF
Bouchard: 61%GF, 64%xGF
Nurse: 49%, 52 %xGF
Ceci: 52% 51 %xGF
Kulak: 72%, 64%xGF
Vinny: 65% 56%xGF
you can’t tell me that pairing is treading water. they are dragging down this team and ceci needs to go.
Is treading water against elites, largely without McDavid, not good enough?
Oilers nation had a really good piece about the pairing. https://oilersnation.com/news/amp/the-edmonton-oilers-could-be-one-upgrade-away-from-having-among-the-strongest-defensive-cores-in-the-nhl. Ceci was among the worst at everything, while Nurse is also poor at stopping controlled entries.
Even pairing Nurse with someone who could better stop controlled entries would be a huge upgrade.
However, in a cap-strapped team, a 2nd pair D treading water at a low cap hit like Ceci is has value, which I think is often overlooked. We cannot afford a Tanev next year, and thus maybe trading away Ceci is not the best idea if there are other areas needing upgrades. If management identifies this as the primary issue at the deadline, which is fair, then there will be no high end forwards coming in without current players coming out.
That is a great article thank you. Good job Sid if you are reading this.
Have you noticed Nurse has dialed back his intensity last couple of seasons? He used to be feared as a physical presence. Does he play better with a calmer demeanour? It’s as if he has to “get mad” before full effort comes out.
With his skating I’m surprised he doesn’t defend the blue line better. Has he been covering for Ceci?
I love Nurse as a player, but I thought as his ice time was dialed back we might see more from him.
Nobody feared Nurse … he’s never been a ferocious hitter unless he was skating way out of position to throw a big hit. After the whistle is blow is when Nurse would do the tough guy routine … that cost them big time last year in the playoffs against Vegas.
When Nurse tones down these antics, he is a much more effective defenseman.
Every team that comes in the building knows Nurse is back there. He had a decent reputation to stay away from.
barely breaking even on a team where everyone else is excelling is not good enough if we want a cup. yeah thats an amazing article and really underscores how badly we need to upgrade ceci
Wow
” Overall, they rank 95th out of 102 pairings in on-ice chances allowed per hour. Amongst all defencemen with a minimum of 150 minutes against elite competition, no defencemen in the entire league have a worse relative impact on suppressing dangerous shot attempts (DFA/60) against elites than Nurse and Ceci.
Fortunately, the pair have still managed to out-score opponents 31 to 25. However, a major reason is that the Oilers have a 0.930 on-ice save percentage with the pairing on-ice.”
Exhibit A that data without context, or in the hands of someone not wishing to seek or understand that context, can be misinterpreted to arrive at false or dangerous conclusions
exhibit A of why your comment provides little to no value besides being condescending. what info am I not understanding John? what context would you like added? QOC? Ekholm-bouch face same level as Ceci-nurse and blow them out of the water. mcdavid minutes? bouch-ekholm, Vinny-kulak have great numbers away from mcdavid too. If you’re going to criticize about lack of context maybe at least provide some of your own?
Deharnais gets killed against elites without McDavid – the scenario where Nurse and Ceci are able to stay above water.
I don’t know what treading water looks like to you, but based on this sole piece of evidence, to me, they are exactly treading water. Neutral buoyancy.
If we trade Ceci who is on contract still next year, for say Tanev, it does leave another hole to be filled next year. Probably at a higher price point.
Exactly. How much of the future do we want to sell for the present? I was never a confident gambler myself
Maybe not much more
They don’t need points, they don’t need a famous expensive guy, they don’t need a banger, they need a capable defender who skates and moves the puck better
Nurse is the vet, and a competent stats dept should be able to spot that player, somewhere. Maybe Tanev stays at 4, that’s doable
The model could be the Avs getting Toews for 2 seconds
You can tell which pair plays tough minutes with McDavid most of the time and which one plays tough minutes without McDavid most of the time.
It appears one didn’t real the blog today, or chose to ignore its substance.
I know that last time I suggested a 1-2-3 center line up of McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, reaction here was not favourable.
I get it, no one likes the idea of RNH on a 3rd line because he is better than that. However, I don’t see it as making him a 3rd line forward. Last night, it appeared there was a 2A and a 2B line. Plus Nuge is a special teams machine so he still ended up a close 4th among forwards in TOI.
I think the coaching may break up McDavid and Draisaitl (maybe after McDavid scores?) and can run two second lines
eg
McDavid with Kane and Hyman
Draisaitl with Foegele and McLeod
RNH with Perry and Holloway or Janmark
I also think that this scenario becomes more likely if they pick up a value winger before the trade deadline.
My quibble with RNH is less about which line and more that he is better on the wing at this point in his career. I’d rather we find a legit 3rd line centre and keep RNH on the top two wings.
In my opinion you need at least one of the following to win 4 rounds against against different genetically made up teams. Either a top 5>8 Goaltender a minute munching stud D-man or a 3rd line Centre that can not only shut down the opposition best line at crucial times but also chip in the odd goal. Holland stuck-out on Campbell. Nurse never took the Pronger steps up. Holland has had 5 years to find a 3rd line center in the vast universe and all he has to show for it is a burnt out Sutter failed comeback.
The Oilers have two legit 3rd line centres in McLeod and Holloway.
Nugent-Hopkins McDavid Hyman
McLeod Draisaitl Kane
Foegele Holloway Perry
Janmark Ryan Brown
is my current prefered deployment
I am a big Holloway fan but its impossible to honestly call him a legit 3rd line center at this point.
I actually don’t disagree with those lines and would have no issue giving Holloway a run at 3C but he’s not proven he can handle it – I think he could/would.
I would also be amenable to switching:
1) McLeod and Holloway; or
2) Kane and Foegele (although Kane and Perry together is yiks – the two speed guys flanking Drai has shown well)
There is no advantage gained in waiting till something is so obvious, that any kid in his pajamas in family basement can recognize it.
One will never maximize the utility and potential of young talent if one does not play and commit to the player when they are ready to play.
Holloway is ready to play.
You can’t wait for the NHL Guide and Record Book to tell you. Or waiting till the sample size is large enough for the advanced stats to tell you.
Holloway can play 3rd line centre with established players of that level of ability and be better than average at the position.
A seventeen year old had this stat line as a rookie in the WHA
52 games, 1 goal, 10 assists.
He was ready. He didn’t look out of place. But the production wasn’t there yet, because he, like Holloway was a power forward/centre. who had not quite figured how to get production our of his prodigious rambunctiousness at the next level, production that he had at lower levels.
Holloway’s offensive talent is different than you typical cookie cutter top prospect.
You are still citing Holloway being able to do something that he has not proven to be able to do as a fact.
There is a reasonable chance he could succeed but its far from a certainty.
Again, I am all for giving it a shot and would be enthused to see it tried but there is simply no certainty it would work and there would surely be some bumps along the way (which is fine).
I hear you. I think there are 2 viable options for 3rd line center (RNH and McLeod). RNH would be better but there aren’t 4 similar or better wingers available. Having 4 of Hyman, Kane, Foegele, Perry and McLeod all humming along simultaneously would solve that (as largely occurred during the streak), but that’s probably an unfair ask. Lightening the load with another middle 6 winger (or a shoot for the moon Guentzel) would make it far easier to have RNH center a 3rd line flanked by wingers who can also contribute offensively
When Nuge signed his contract extension, my belief was he would spend the back half of his career as a 3C.
Nuge is a very good top-6 winger, but he may actually have more value to the Oilers as a 3C.
I’m surprised Oilers coaches, McLellan, Tippett, Woodcroft, or Knoblauch, haven’t attempted for any length to orient the roster around the “Centres-3” model.
That’s because Nuge is head and shoulders above all left Wingers on the team. He’s a 1LW.
McLeod and Holloway are better suited to be 3rd line centres than Nugent-Hopkins.
I look forward to him slowing his game down a bit – not losing the aggressiveness, motor, tenacity, etc., but just “slowing down and not going 100 miles per hour every moment of every shift.
Maybe he slows down a bit when the game slows down for him?
His hands and brain can’t keep up with his legs right now – it’ll come though.
The Oilers are not giving Holloway a regular enough spot and regular enough ice time for him to settle in and settle into his game.
So you figure 13 minutes a night instead of 11 and he’d be aces by now?
i agree with Godot that Skinner is an NHL Goalie with upside. My concerns with him are his hockey sense as he seems to lose the puck and doesn’t anticipate plays as well as some of the elite goalies. His side to side movement is decent other then he seems to lose his balance quite often. I I don’t know if that’s a technical issue or a skating issue,these are the things I think needs improvement if he wants to go from an average starter to an elite one. No question he is young and can continue to work on these things. Jmo
Yeah I think the anticipation is a real thing. I think he’s cut down on straight-up bad goals (the Marchand goal the other night) but doesn’t often accomplish something outstanding. Like, you wouldn’t fault him for a said goal, but it would be nice if he had reacted sooner or whatever.
Criminally under-rated for what he does in the role he’s tasked with. A very tough task.
The numbers away from McDavid are so telling and its the main reason why I straight numbers comparison as between the Nurse/Ceci pairing and the Ekholm/Bouchard pairing is not honest. The latter have the much tougher job.
I read all sorts about him being a 3rd pairing d-man and straight up “Ceci sucks” – its wild.
He’s a legit 2RD/4D and he’s important to this team.
The issue is that, given the discrepancy in the forwards they play with, the Nurse/Ceci pairing get the “toughest minutes” whereas Ceci would be better suited for “second pairing minutes”
I think Ceci has played very well. He’s also going to be hard targeted in every playoff series.
Is he a legitimate 2RD in the playoffs against a top tier competitor though? I really think he is more of a 5/6 type of defenceman, who when the going gets tough, would be better suited on the third pair. At his best in the playoffs, he is more than capable of playing that role against a team like LA or the Flames to win a round. We’ve seen it. But when the going gets really tough, ie Avs and Knights, he is exposed.
I am trying to think where Ceci would slot on the blue line with the last few Cup winners? I don’t think it is in the top 4 for any of them.
In saying that, as has been pointed out – there probably isn’t a realistic upgrade at this deadline anyways, other than maybe Tanev.
If Ceci was a legit Stanely Cup contending #2RD, there would not be the constant discussion about the need to upgrade the position.
If you have to ask the question…
I’m curious how you would apply this same axiom to Skinner who you are defending today.
The statement is not even true either – I mean, there are questions if Leon can drive a line at 5 on 5 as a center and if the team would be better off if he was traded. There were questions if Jeff Petry could be a legit top 4 d-man.
Holloway’s offense will come once the Oilers commit to playing him full time in the top nine,. It should take about 40 games. But the Oilers refuse to commit to him and give him those 40 games.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dQRsqK2klY
Keeping that next contact manageable?
At the expense of Holloway not being a true difference maker in the playoffs this year. A bad tradeoff.
The leash has always been short but every time Holloway has been given a shot in the top six, his demotion comes on merit.
I do agree, it would be nice for the coach to be able to commit to player in certain spots for a long enough time to give it a real chance – at the same time, it can’t be easy to continue to run out something that isn’t working if the team is not winning in spite, right?
I’d be happy if Holloway got steady 3rd line mates and minutes, never mind top-6.
Where did I say top 6? Why do people keep using straw men?
Please, don’t be disingenuous – you said top 9 and clearly contemplated the potential for your scenario to include a run in the top 6 or else you would have said 3rd line.
Blues currently are 62 pts in 57 games which is an 89 pt pace.
A smaller snapshot shows they are 5-5-0 in their last 10 – so running just below their season average.
Back-to-Backs can have a significant impact on the second game and the Oilers catch the Blues on the back end after they play in Winterpeg tonight. Blues are 4-3-0 in their seven BTB games this season, but have only played against a playoff team twice (Vancouver both times – lost one and won one). The other 3 wins were against the Habs (twice) / Ducks (once) and lost to both PIT and CHI.
Blues are on a tough BTB but are only 4 pts out of the 2WC with 2 games in hand. They should be playing like it is Game 7.
Given the BTB, time-zone change and the Oilers coming off a nice win over a good club; the Oilers win 5-3.
A tough back to back coming from Winnipeg – that is some real travel (no customs though).
Its not 3 in 4 nights though which, from some accounts (i.e. Strudy and others) is the real killer.
Long bus trip though.
Kind of a sleepy start last night but I think it was at least partially due to the team trying to get back to their structure and low event game. They didn’t have their legs early but, aside from a few mistakes, they were playing a more responsible game (the Nurse/Ceci net front play was just mistakes (and a good pass by Byfield) as opposed to a loosey goosey structure).
Skinner didn’t steal the game but he was indeed very important to the win – some big saves in the first 40 – if the Kings had extended the lead to two, the game may have turned out different. He was solid, looked confidant and outplayed the tender at the other end.
We all know that Leon was a beast last night and that Bouchard was integral to the first three Oiler goals – yup, a really bad read/play (Ekholm’s prior play didn’t help), really bad, but he was a huge part of the win.
I though Foegele was very good for the second half of the game – some strong drives with the puck and he created. I also thought McLeod was exceptional in the 3rd period (except the late icing) – he was hard and physical on the forecheck and created d-man turnovers for possession on like 4 straight shifts.
Agreed! All players make ‘mistakes’ during the fastest game in the world. The whole team appeared calmer and played smarter for the most part.
Good win, Skinner was solid and that was nice to see.
It definitely wasn’t your typical nasty rough LA/Oiler game.
LA wasn’t hacking, whacking and hitting like they normally do against the Oil.
My god Bouchard has a Cannon.
Janmark gave em the stink eye.
I disagree and think LA was typical filthy.
What do you call a headlock and running a guys face into the glass?
Overall they weren’t as nasty as normal
Mikey Anderson had te night off, so there’s that.
Yeah Drai wasn’t limping.
A drunken stupor?
A comeback killer 😉
I call it “the ol’ Dave Hunter”
Ceci is good enough for the regular season. That has never been in question. Is he good enough (in the role he is in) in a seven game series against contending teams? That has always been the question.
Is Bouchard worth $11 million per season? Fortunately that one does not have to be answered till this summer or the summer after that.
Man, we absolutely cannot let Bouchard get away. A big, point per game, right shot defenceman who won’t even turn 25 until after next season starts. He’s learning to be more physical and nasty to my eye too. He’s like a younger, healthier, more mobile Sheldon Souray.
All depends on the price. Obviously, team is better with Bouch on it though.
Quinn Hughes is locked in at 7.85M until 2028, so hopefully that tempers Bouch’s ask a bit to 8.5 x 5 whereabouts
4 RFA years on that Hughes contract. There will only be two on Bouchard’s next contract. Bouchard is $8 million dollars behind Hughes in career earning because of his transitional deal. So if Bouchard signs an 8-year deal, he needs an extra one million per season to catch up with Hughes (and he may feel that he is better than Hughes, so more if that is the case). The cap will be going up also.
One would hope he would be satisfied with Nurse’s AAV.
Better than the higher scoring captain of the top team in hockey this year? I agree it will be higher but given his defensive shortcomings i’d be surprised if another team was willing to fork over more than Nurse money for Bouch.
Meh – Bouch’s defensive shortcomings are exaggerated and will also reduce over time as he continues to develop – he’s 3-4 years from hitting his defensive peak.
Bouch is absolutely prone to the big mistake. The play he made on the 2nd goal against last night was absolutely wild.
With that said, except for stretches where he’s slumping and his game falls apart (seems to be early in the year), he is generally a fine defensive/2-way player. He makes the big mistake, and they are generally highly visible and lead to goals against, but the quantity is low. He is fantastic at defending the blue line and zone entry and gapping up, his urgency in puck retrieval is no longer an issue nor is his defensive intensity in general. Most of his mistakes are at the opposition blue and in the neutral zone and those are areas where he will continue to pick his spots and develop.
From Cap Friendly:
Hughes has signed 2 contracts worth a total value of $51,912,500.
Bouchard has signed 2 contracts with a total value of $12,775,000.
While the differing contract lengths see Hughes playing an additional 2 seasons at $7.85 million, Bouchard at $8 million doesn’t change much and Hughes next contract should easily eclipse that of Bouchard.
At the end of the day, Hughes (barring injury) should walk away with an extra $40-50 million in his jeans.
I should add the extra 2 years on Hughes’ contract mean he will be re-negotiating when the cap should be significantly higher than when Bouchard is re-signed.
At age 27, Hughes should be able to knock it out of the park.
Pat Brisson is no dummy.
Bouchard is going to be expensive but it is what it is (there were various factors that led to it but there was simply no way to get him signed long term this past off-season – an extra $3MM – $4MM on the cap wasn’t an option – not if they were looking to compete this year).
At the same time, lets just enjoy the MASSIVE value contract that he is for not just this season, but also next season.
Everyone bashed Nurse for his “future contract” while he gave the Oilers 7 years of value contracts.
I’m future looking for sure but, at the same time, in the moment, this year and next, its a great contract.
So many OIler fans do not know what a good NHL goaltender looks like. Skinner is a good NHL goaltender, and is still a sophomore. He still has upside potential.
The problem is the Oilers don’t need a good NHL goaltender; they need an elite NHL goaltender. Skinner isn’t quite there yet and when he is they won’t be able to afford him.
So, they had better improve their team defense.
Elite NHL goaltenders are unicorns.
And expecting you elite NHL goaltender to cover to the inherent flaws in the team in front of him is misguided and foolish. See Carey Price.
Truth be told, prime Carey Price in front of the current Oilers is the Stanley Cup favorite, with a bullet – don’t think they “need” that to win though.
I don’t agree the Oilers need an elite NHL tender – there are only 5 – 7 of those in the world and a few of them aren’t even at that standard this season (Sarros, Jake O., Andrei V. – arguably Sheshterkin and Sorokin as well).