It’s coming up on 10 years ago but remains a massive moment in franchise history. Looking at this board, it’s clear there were excellent options for the Oilers no matter where it turned out. GM Craig MacTavish was reportedly focused on one of Leon Draisaitl or Aaron Ekblad, and the key decision came when the Buffalo Sabres chose Sam Reinhart. I remember MacT saying he liked the Oilers position and was confident the team would get a good player. Yes. Yes. That is correct.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: How have the Oilers’ deadline acquisitions worked out so far?
- Lowetide: The Oilers face a looming cap crunch this summer. How bad will it be?
- Lowetide: If Oilers’ Philip Broberg is next man up, he needs NHL games soon
- DNB: How Adam Henrique is slowly becoming a key player for the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-0-1)
- On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
- Actual March results: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 42-23-4, 88 points in 69 games
The two road losses bring the Los Angeles Kings into the picture for second in the Pacific. The losses also mean Vancouver is now a distant bell. My projections for the month are now aligned, with two very difficult games on the schedule this week. Ironically, the Winnipeg Jets are also struggling. In recent history, the Jets have offered no comfort to the Edmonton crew. It’s a huge week for this franchise.
THE NUMBERS
The story of the game is laid out clearly here. Look at the expected goals for three of the four lines, look at the save percentage and you can write your story. It would be ridiculous to get mad at Calvin Pickard after all he’s done this season, but he got beat short side more than any goalie I’ve seen since the 1970’s.
The penalty kill was a tragedy. I thought the Oilers structure was improved over the TML game while at five-on-five, but right now the club looks lost.
I’m going to talk about Cody Ceci now, not in a “he sucks and should be traded today and Ken Holland should be in prison!” kind of way, but in a way that one would talk about another human being if they had an ounce of couth.
Ceci is struggling. He’s also playing the same minutes as Nurse with Desharnais at five-on-five since March 8.
- Nurse-Desharnais: 2-2 goals 11:30 per game, 22-25 offensive-defensive faceoffs.
- Kulak Ceci: 2-6 goals, 11:19 per game, 23-23 offensive-defensive faceoffs.
Those numbers for Kulak-Ceci are in just eight games, meaning the club is going to lose a goal in most every game. The Nurse-Desharnais numbers are in six games, the GA a reasonable total. Nurse with Troy Stecher are 1-0 goals in 26 minutes. It’s a long season, Ceci has been working hard since he got here. I think some time in the pressbox is warranted and could benefit. I would think about doing the same for Nurse as well.
Playing versus elites without the McDavid line must be like slaying a dragon every day.
- Connor McDavid w/o Nurse vs elites: 294 mins, 63 pct DFF, 13-11 goals, 2.2 GA-60
- Connor McDavid with Nurse v elites: 78 mins, 57 pct DFF, 6-1 goals, 0.8 GA-60
- Darnell Nurse w/o McDavid vs elites: 265 mins, 49 pct DFF, 8-17 goals, 3.9 GA-60
- Via Puck IQ
That’s fascinating. We need to remember the McDavid-Nurse totals are just 78 minutes, but the GA-60 offers a clue. I think Nurse with a good passing defender (Stecher) might defend less. That’s a key.
DRAISAITL-KANE
I don’t know what they were discussing, but it was a fascinating visual seeing two key players for the Oilers having a heated public exchange. The pass by Evan Bouchard to an area Kane was exiting is my guess, but who really knows. I will say I prefer public displays of anger when the other team is making you wear you ass for a hat, so kudos to both men for having the appropriate take on the game itself.
HYMAN’S 50
I’ll have a lot to say on the radio today, but this is a special season by a man gifted with many things. He chose to take those gifts and make something even better. There’s a lesson we can all learn from it.
A fun and busy afternoon on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. Rachel Doerrie from Staff & Graph podcast will discuss the Oilers weekend and how to fix it. Jason Gregor will be by to talk about his Toronto weekend the state of the Oilers and the week to come. We’ll chat mlb, march madness and more! You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Who’s the Edmonton Oilers’ best player outside the NHL?
https://theathletic.com/5364957/2024/03/25/edmonton-oilers-best-player-outside-nhl/
Haven’t had a chance to read it yet, LT, but it’s probably Gretzky, yeah?
Wanner is blowing the doors off which is great. If he stays healthy he’ll be pushing for a look next season for sure. I will not be surprised if he eats somebody’s lunch in training camp and takes their allowance and girlfriend
The Art Ross is going to be a close race. If you extrapolate their last 11 to 14 games, to match the games they have left, McDavid (28 in his last 14) will end up with 145pts, MacKinnon (24 in his last 11) with 146pts, and Kucherov (25 in his last 12) with 148pts. One great game with 4 or 5 points could change everything, as could a few 0 or 1-point games.
Similarly, the Rocket Richard race could be close. According to their last 11 to 14 games, Hyman (13 goals in his last 14) could end up with 63, Matthews (6 in his last 13) with 64, and Reinhart (9 in his last 11) with 59. A 3 or 4-goal game, or a mini drought could decide things. Matthews has slowed down with 6 in his last 13 (weird to call that slow), whereas Hyman has 13 in his last 14, and Reinhart has 9 in his last 11.
Hyman is scoring at a higher rate than Matthews and Reinhart and has more games left while McDavid is scoring at a slightly slower rate than Kucherov and MacKinnon but he has more games left.
Kings Nucks tonight. No OT is good for Oil. Who we hoping wins?
Also, what’s the origin behind the phrase “Dys” to describe em? Anyone?
“Dys” is a dry reference to Dynasty, which Nucks fans don’t have any actual experience with. Perhaps a bit like saying 1967 to a Leaf fan, only referencing the Dys’ zero championships whatsoever.
I don’t mind if they beat the Kings. How do you see it?
Thanks for the explainer. Just wanted to be one of the cool kids in the know.
Yea, I’m with you. Division title seems out of reach so wouldn’t mind the Dys 🙂 kicking the Kings down the ladder for the Oilers today.
I understood it as a jab at Nucks fans in the Sedin era, when every Nucks fan was talking like they were a dynasty (despite having zero cups). So different vibe then a 1967 reference or, for instance, a reference to Cubs futility before they won (cases wherein the franchise’s futility is part of being fan).
It’s definitely short for dynasty.
The Vancouver Dynasties for all the Stanley Cups they’ve won.
Oilers spent a excessive amount of energy after the dreadful start getting back in the thick of things. If they can keep 2nd place in the division secure hopefully they start rotating players in the line-up especially D-men to end the year.
It’s going to be an interesting summer. Try playing around with Capfriendly for 2025-26 with Leon at 12.5M
Using Lavoie Holloway Rodrigue and Bro at their low contracts, moving Campbell clean, trading Ceci and Kulak, getting Carrier at 4.5M and promoting Wanner, that’s 16 players and 10.8M in cap left. No dead cap left if there are no more buyouts
Nuge CMD Hyman
McL Drai Kane
X Holloway Lavoie
XXX
XX
Ek Bouch
Nurse Carrier
Bro Wanner
X
Stu
Rod
Bouch is at 8 because we didn’t lock him up before which would have been the smart play
In the wise words of Steady Steve Staois, the caps not a problem, there’s always a way around that, me referring to there being no cap to sign Bouch longer and lower
Bouchard at $8 something is a massive home town discount. The bare likely minimum for Bouchard is that he comes in at Nurse’s number.
Fortunately the OIlers still have till the summer of 2025 to decide if he is worth 8 x $10-11 million, the likely range.
Yes, the way around the bridge on Bouchard would have been to make the team markedly worse this season.
Any signing of Bouchard for term would have increased his cap hit and the rest of the roster would have less cap and been worse – end stop.
Not to mention, it would probably have cost close to $8MM to get Bouch signed for term this past off-season in any event.
Kane will have to be traded
Using SS’s parameters I got $12.3M remaining with 16 players signed.
That’s 12.3M for 6 players (3W, 4L, 4C, 4R, 13F, 7D – or 2W if McLeod is on the 3rd line).
So why will Kane have to be traded?
I would suggest starting with Leon at $13.5MM.
I don’t see him coming in with an AAV materially lower than MacKinnon and Matthews.
I’d be shocked if Lavoie was on the Oilers in two seasons.
Broberg and Holloway will only be under $1MM if the GM can get them signed for 2 years this off-season. The players should each be trying for one year and they will get paid in a year from now.
Deharnais is MUCH better as 3RD with Kulak and top PK time.
Ceci is better with Nurse – its not perfect but its better.
Sure, lets get Stecher some reps but, for the top 6 d-men (until/unless Troy S. forces his way in there) must be a reversion to what has worked for the team most of this season.
Ceci is not doing well though, even in a demoted role.
I am not sure he will survive ( and he was really poor last year in the playoffs) top 4 in the post season
Ceci is probably not good enough, so you have to see what Desharnais can do before the playoffs.
Not investigating all the options is a recipe for a quick exit in the playoffs.
I’m seeing what Deharnais can do and its worse than Ceci to my eye and it hurts two pairings.
You have to give it more than a week.
Its been more than a week – there have been two stints and probably close to 10 games.
Just checked – 170 minutes together, 3-6 goals, 48% expected goals and that is probably better than the eye test.
Not even a little bit mad at Pickard – he has blown away all reasonable expectations, even for the role he’s played. I look forward to his next start.
At the same time, the Oilers list primarily because of goaltending last night – end stop.
It happens – we move on, with Cal as the trusted 2G.
Just because you’ve posted this a dozen times doesn’t make it true, or correct. The Oilers lost because of their shitty PK and coverage issues.
Just because you post your opinion multiple times doesn’t make it true.
I keep reading/hearing that the goaltender is the team’s most important PK guy – the tender was part of the PK that got scored on.
I don’t think its arguable, objectively or subjectively, that Korposalo was the far superior goaltender on the night and, in my opinion, that fact was the primary (almost sole) difference in the game last night.
What a story it would’ve been had Hyman got his 50th in Toronto in a winning season sweep. So it came in Ottawa, no less amazing. So touching to see everyone’s big smiles and hugs, especially with Hyman still smiling later on the bench. It was a great human moment for all.
The losses over the weekend were frustrating but this morning I decided to look at the bigger picture in a different way. There were games in hand to maybe possibly catch the Canucks but this may turn out to be better spent getting the team with the new fellas going well in time for playoffs. Cue “that’s why they play the games”
One thing, I do agree Ceci needs a reset. Whatever it is, family, whatever, I believe we still need him playing like his best old self for the playoffs, even if it’s in the pressbox.
Beating two Conference rivals this week is more important. If they lose to them, badly, then I’ll start fussing for real.
Lots of whining by me in this thread so I’ll offer a solution for the GM this summer.
Desh is right where he should be, alongside Kulak putting up gaudy suppression numbers on the 3rd pairing. It’s Ceci who is being asked to do too much.
With Leon/Nurse/new guy you need positive numbers so you either move the numerator or you move the denominator.
Perhaps it’s Erik Karlsson at half retained that spikes Nurse/Leon’s SC For numbers into the Bouchard/Ekholm range. The pairing would be an adventure defensively but so are Nurse/Ceci so if that “against” number holds all the gains on the “for” go to the bottom line.
Or it’s MacKenzie Weegar who pushes the Nurse/Leon SCFor Up and the SC Against numbers down providing the most impact at the most cost.
Or it’s Chris Tanev who leaves the SC For in the mediocre range but can help Nurse get the SC Against down in the elite Chatfield/Orlov range
Going with the 3rd option likely means playing Leon and Connor together on a super-unit with 2/14 and having incredible suppression from everyone else. Kane-types moved for better fits.
Not sure if it’s ever been mentioned, but Broberg at 2RD could be an internal solution
It’s highly unlikely that happens. Coach likes D sticks on boards as well. Bro’s not a prodigy, and the need is going to be LD and the replacement there as well. Easier to sign Carrier in the 4’s use Bro as 3LD to let him acclimate, trade Ceci and Kulak, get LD depth on the farm for when Bro gets hurt
Next season we might be talking about Kemp & Maximus Wanner for RHD’s not Broberg, who is better off on his natural side in the NHL.
Wanner is real and spectacular and he’s legit.
I can’t imagine him not being a “better Deharnais” at 3RD and I do think he has real 2RD upside.
I also can’t imagine him being a real option out of camp next season – I think October 2025 is more realistic – with the potential for a late 2024/25 cup of coffee.
Sophomore slumps in the AHL happen too – we’ll see where we are in a year.
Tell me more about this potential solution. I’m intrigued 😉
I would like to see RNH flex to second line with Draisaitl.
There is a history of outscoring there, and a fresh look could do RNH some good given his recent slump.
Kane on top line is dicey, but something has to be done to get him going too.
Keep McLeod as 3c.
It’s starting to look like the best place for Kane is on the third line with Henrique & Perry.
IMO.
Kane-Henrique-Perry could be the slowest line in the history of the NHL.
Kane can skate when he’s motivated.
And Henrique & Perry make up for their lack of speed with hockey IQ.
I liked the look of ystd’s 3rd line of Janmark-McLeod-Perry. Obvs I’d swap Kane and Janmark but there’s a little jam there and I think they could handle most teams 3rd lines.
Not a chance for me.
For me, the best place for Kane is on McDavid’s left wing.
I don’t think Kane can provide his top impact on the 3rd line and this team needs to the game we saw from Kane in the 2022 playoffs.
For me, Kane can provide the impact he needs only in the top 6 and, given he hasn’t played well with Drai this season, I have him on McDavid’s wing.
Nuge as 3LW with Henrique as 3C is ELITE.
Foegele and McLeod with Drai is an outscoring trio – this has been proven over a long sample size with Drai/Foegele and McLeod has fit in to the trio as far as outscoring goes – and that’s what matters.
Kane has been freelancing all season. He hasn’t changed his approach to the game one iota since the new system is implemented. He’s still contributing I’m not hating on him, just an observation that he’s not choosing to maintain possession and be in places where he’s supposed to be. He wants the puck, and he wants to shoot, same as it ever was.
I think in order for this team to be effective when they’re locked in a best of seven with any of the multiple Western Conference Giants, they need to play simple, put the puck to where their teammates already know to go. Make pinching easy. Make covering easy. Make your 3rd and 4th lines possession beauties. Don’t expose your own warts on offense or on defense.
I was concerned that the additions were making the team too slow to be effective at making that system work. I see that playing out somewhat.
Vinny In the top 4 D ?
Ceci has ruled himself out of maybe even starting.
I think I would like to take a long look at Stetcher with Nurse before I decide …what to do before playoffs.
If you think – at times- Vinnyhas trouble with top 6 forward speed- just wait until he gets targeted in the playoffs.
The Oilers best top 4D right side option is playing in Bakersfield on the left side. Organizational dysfunction and blinkered ideological management over practical common sense.
Please……..
Broberg struggled on the right side with the bigger ice/way more time on retrievals, in Sweden.
This opinion is not based on reality.
I suspect our problem is we have 3- 3rd pairing right D in Ceci, Vinny and Stetcher. We really don’t have that solid 2 nd pair RD. Have to make the best of it for remainder of this season?????
That is on the gm
Frustrating game. Oil dominated that game except for the pk.. which was atrocious.
All that said. Oiler fans are bipolar. So much “we arent good enough” after any loss.
I wonder, is Florida no longer a contender because they are 0-2-1 in their last three (and watching the game vs nyr looked poor).
Are jets trash now because they are 0-3 and outscored 13-4 over that? It makes me sad how negative fans are. Gotta be hard on people!
Lousy weekend. But I personally see what most do: Oilers are a dominant team in 2024 (and 2023-2024) season. They are a contender. Will they prevail? We’ll never know until the games are played. But a bad weekend doesnt change anything as our host points out.
I am curious. Does anyone see the same negativity from other fanbases that Oilers fans seem to have? I know I’m guilty. Maybe its the terrible decade of darkness? But seems unsubstantiated and curious if other fans are as fickle?
If they aren’t as fickle they aren’t invested. Many fan bases are like that, don’t win they don’t go
The Oilers are blessed in so many ways, including having a full house as a given. Who else does, maybe Leafs Habs Bruins Rangers?
My lord yes I was logging in today to talk about the same.
We finally have a winning team. But Oiler players cannot win with this fan base. They play defensively they are criticized for not putting up points. They play aggressively they get criticized for taking an odd penalty. They get it for not sticking up for each other, they hear it when they do stick up for each other. (Penalty). The best players in the game get criticized if they can’t pull the full load by themselves.
It’s poor effort, poor iq, poor roster, and it goes on.
some fans saying”that’s it I’m done” or “they are out in the first round”
We want the team to be resilient, but offer no resilience in a fan base.
We were spoiled with Gretzky. We are spoiled with McDavid. There is an expectation of perfection that is not realistic.
I suggest follow the LT lead. Enjoy what’s in front of you while it lasts. Enjoy the season, the limestones and cheer like crazy for playoffs.
This to me is a learning blog, so discussion will be had, but also wish we as fans could smooth out the emotional ride a bit.
It’s possible to enjoy McDavid regardless, but asking passionate fans to be placid when the team plays well below it’s capability, and/or poorly, isn’t for everyone. Really the vast majority here aren’t over the top
I certainly don’t see that in other sports either
If fickle means that oiler fans are knowledgeable? That could be it.
Do you think the players are upset at the fans and are losing to spite them?
How are the Oilers supposed to win with fans like these?
Sheesh.
Here’s the thing about the defense. If you’re expected to help generate offense then generate offense and we’ll accept that there will be some mistakes; exhibit 1 Evan Bouchard. If you’re expected to suppress opposition offense then do that please and the odd offensive contribution would be appreciated. This is what’s a bit galling about Ceci being behind the net on other team’s net on the Stutzle goal leaving Foegele back to defense for far too long in my opinion. You aren’t scoring anyway so what are you doing up there?
Let’s take Even Bouchard vs Cody Ceci vs Vincent Desharnais. All per 60.
GF
3.77 vs 2.44 vs 1.76
SCF
38 vs 30.2 vs 25.8
HDscf;
16.5 vs 13.6 vs 12.3
Bouchard is obviously miles ahead in producing offense and Ceci has a significant edge over Desh. Obviously playing with McDavid is an advantage as is Ceci playing more with Draisaitl than say McLeod.
But when it comes to suppression,
GA
2.42 vs 2.54 vs 1.62
SCA
22.9 vs vs 28.5 vs 23.1
HDSCA
9 vs 11.9 vs 8.7
Obviously Bouchard and his time with 97 makes him almost incomparable but you can see Desharnais holding his own in suppressing offense. And honestly, league wide Desharnais’ numbers at suppresion are outstanding. His underlyings are on par with Bouchards and his GA is incredible but starting to regress the last few weeks.
But with Ceci (and Nurse is not far off) you get this mushy-middling offensive production and well below average defending. These are numbers that you’re seeing from the Andrew Peeke’s and Justin Faulk’s of the league. What we should be striving for is a pairing like Orlov and Chatfield who would make less than Nurse Ceci.
SCF/A/60
26.8/18.5 vs 30.8/29.4
That’s a pairing that knows their role. Shut things down so Burns and Slavin and Skjei and Pesce can go create. Give us a quiet few minutes as Ekholm’s stated a few times.
I think the big issue is the mix of players. There are gaps in individual skill sets, but it’s amplified when you put D together where their problems aren’t offsetting
We see this throughout the roster. It’s not enough just to get better players than you had. They also need to be purposefully built into a balanced and deep group
This season is set now. I hope they get a banging GM who addresses these things quickly and efficiently. I expect they will be hard pressed to get to the conference finals, and I give them little chance of winning that if they do. This is going to hurt, a lot, but the silver lining is it would give the GM carte blanche to do what they see as the solution. No one would have legs to stand on arguing against it at this point
If they don’t find a very competent and active person, it will be the biggest shame, second only to selling off of the glory team
So theoretically speaking, since Desharnais is outstanding holding his own suppressing offense, he should be an ideal partner for Nurse, allowing Nurse more leeway to create offense. Nurse has 9 goals & 16 assists, and he isn’t seeing as much time with Connor, Ekholm & Bouchard have become the go to pair with McDavid. I don’t get it. What’s so wrong with these pairs? They should work fine.
It’s very obvious to me that the dmen are being coached to join the rush. It’s a new twist since Coffey arrived.
It can work fine if it is a team strategy. The forwards must be aware and cover. It was working until recently with odd man rushes coming at then far too often.
They could dial it back or they might see if another roster player better fits the system. Stetcher or Broberg.
The main factor with Stecher & Broberg is speed, while Desharnais & Ceci are slow trains. If the D join the rush, they still need to get back to defend, the forwards can only do so much. Vinny & Cody shouldn’t join the rush if they don’t have the speed to recover defensively. They need to understand their limitations.
I feel like this is the main thing… It’s just constant 2-1’s and danger rushes coming. Earlier in the season the team was mostly defending the blueline pretty well, and defenders were back. But, I wonder if Coffey is trying to instill defenders jumping up into the play more and more…. The team hasn’t adjusted properly and no one is really covering the counter-attack.
If that’s true then they need to either tell the defenders to stay back and cover, not jump up so much… Or try to teach the forewards to cover defense more. I like seeing Ekholm, Bouch, Nurse jumping up into the play and getting tons of points… But, I worry every time I see Desharnais or Ceci doing that. And I don’t feel much confidence when Kane or Perry or even Draisaitl are asked to cover defence.
I wonder if they need to chill on the “defenders joining the attack” thing.
Wouldn’t it be more accurate to do comparisons among pairings? Especially since you’re using a duo’s results at the end for your benchmark?
I have been very, very late to the Ceci not working party.
More disconcerting is the Nurse numbers – away from McDavid.
That is shocking-but maybe a function of Cecil’s decline?
I don’t know…..certainly explains Vinny being moved up I guess
The coaches aren’t liking what they are seeing it seems. I think the ask that the D play hockey first is what is creating this. When it was glass and out as an option that isn’t last ditch, players weren’t exposed. It would be hard to try to do that game in and out if it’s a stretch to pull off for a guy
One of the principle mistakes people seem to always make is acting like Darnell Nurse is a defensive defenceman. He has never been. I’d still argue he should have been made a forward at the end of junior, but that has long since passed I suppose.
Players who see and play the game the way he does are never the reliable iron rock of a defender you’re looking for. They need one of those beside them. And they can’t be the #6D version of that.
I don’t like having Nurse as a central figure of a Cup contending top 6. It is a recipe for some level of disaster in an SC final, or prior. The question will be whether the team can outplay that.
In the meantime, they need to figure out that he is not the closer. He’s not the lock on the door. He can contribute many things – but not that.
That is why the trade for Mattias Ekholm was huge.
I completely agree. He has been doing his best in that role but he is a natural roamer.
iI think Desharnais is to be that foundation rock for him. Vince is trying but it is a big ask.
Nurse has not had a legitimate top 4D as a partner since Larsson left.
He has had rookies, Bear, Bouchard. 3rd pairing type like Ceci or Barrie with idiosyncratic warts.
Ok Godot, but if you’re good you make your partner better. Bouchard is faciltated by Ekholm, no?
Nurse had made his partner better, carrying rookies or 3rd pairing partners against the toughest opposition for several seasons, while producing EV points at a 1st pairing level with a goal share usually on the right side of 50%
Put him on his off side and see how he does.
And yet you constantly want to saddle with with basically another rookie in Broberg, and on his wrong side.
Broberg has a better overall set of skills than the other guys for the job, and Holland was not willing to be bold in creating the cap space to risk trading for someone legit.
Except that he has virtually no offensive instincts. Besides being a good forward skater what skillset makes you think he could be anything other than Jordan Greenway as a forward. His wrist shot is ok. He doesn’t pass or stickhandle anywhere near NHL average for a forward.
He has some major qualities that make him a good defenseman including incredible backward skating, the ability to handle huge minutes, size and some toughness.
There’s no doubt he’s most useful as a defenseman even if we agree there are some serious limitations to his game. He’s a #3 which is where he’s now slotted.
For a D with no offensive instincts, Nurse has collected even strength points at a 1st pairing level for most of the last four seasons. Plus, the power play was basically as effective with him on the point as it has been under Klefbom, Barrie, and Bouchard, with guys like Chiasson and Neal at the net front instead of Hyman.
When Nurse was paired with Theodore at the World Juniors, the opposition basically could not score. Get Nurse a competent all around defensive partner and he will be more than fine.
Strangely enough, the Oilers have a potential D of precisely that type wasting away in Bakersfield.
Carrier. Not expensive
Play Bro 3LD with either Des or get a vet with some physicality. Trade Kulak and Ceci and there is no cap problem. Get LD cover for the farm. Right side has Kemp and Wanner
13 games remaining and the Coach needs to get his lines set and let them build some familiarity and cohesion with one another before the playoffs.
No worries.
Big time.
Totally. It’s time to gear up for the playoffs. End the blender
Do you honestly think they aren’t trying to gear up for the playoffs?
That’s not what he said.
Is plus-minus still considered a garbage stat? I find it interesting that plus-minus has been derided for years now but 5×5 GF-GA is stated regularly by lots of different people. Was filtering out the 4×4 and 6×5 goals really all that was needed to turn it into a useful stat?
Yes, plus the EN goals. One year a bunch of posters beat Shawn Horcoff about the face and hands on this blog til someone pointed out his defensive zone starts and EN goals against with the team chasing. It all matters. Not just five-on-five goals but it’s the biggest game state so gets the most attention.
Where’s the old crew when I feel the need to go down the old rabbit hole of arguing that Horcoff should have never, ever been on the ice when they were trying to tie a game?
Good times…but also bad times…
The empty net goals can be massive – like 15 minuses on EN goals against.
I’ve pointed to the glaring hole at 2RD (upgrade on Ceci) since last years playoffs and was mostly mocked. Spill whatever assets needed for an Ekholm-like addition on RD. “Good luck upgrading Ceci” for the money he makes.
Now Stauffer equated his value to that of Ryan Johanson who he himself said will be bought out so in the eyes of the Bob (who is the Oilers) Ceci has massive negative value to the point that a buy out would be reasonable. (Again, this is Bob’s words not mine)
Then quickly the story changed to how there were no upgrades available and how Sean Walker isn’t an upgrade over Ceci but it seems Walker is kicking out the jams.
Now we’re at the point where we’re trying Vinny Desharnais and Troy Stetcher in the 2RD role with a dozen games left in the season. We must know how this ends no?
Could Troy Stecher be an upgrade on Ceci?
I don’t recall you being mocked, but will take your word for it.
Ceci is struggling, that doesn’t mean he is unable to help. I can’t comment on what Bob said because I didn’t hear it, but would guess that Ceci has enough trade value this summer to make the change.
I thhought Bob was comparing contract value, which is $750k short of Johansen even with half retained on the latter. The point being that the trade of Sean Walker for a first came with other costs.
He spent nearly one full hour a) verifying with Seravalli and Hart Levine that Johanson in no uncertain terms would be bought out and it would cost something like 2.75M to do so and b) that the cost of the acquisition of the 1st for Philly was indeed Walker and 2.75M in cap space next year and finally c) grilling all of MacTavish, Seravalli, Rob Brown and Escott if they would have traded Ceci and a 1st for Walker.
The implication then is that Ceci and Johanson are equivalent including contract status because if not why make that hypothetical offer. And if Ceci and Johanson are equal then and Johanson is a sure buyout then it follows that they believe that is Ceci’s value across the league.
I would say the idea of upgrading on Ceci was mocked. Stuff like “here come more calls to “upgrade” on Ceci. Good luck finding better than him for 3.25M.”
I read many comments saying that. I was on the receiving end. To me it misses the point
If you think you need a better player the extra cost is necessary. You could ice Connor and Leon and 21 guys at league minimum and have lots of cap
I believe it was his teammates that gave him the thumbs up. And that tells you something.
Oh how the story changed in the local media.
Sean Walker vs Cody Ceci.
So much Oiler PR water was being carried by most of the local media ie Sean Walker….they must be sore.
I wonder if KH is involved in that, or when he leaves problems others are going ‘He’s not going to do anything set a smoke screen and distract them!’
Some reports say , they looked at Walker and passed
The team decided spent their 1st rounder on 2 forwards that can contribute defensively over 1 defenseman. However they also acquired Troy Stecher.
Have you seen any sort of contribution from them other than they being both slow?
Absolutely.
That is the bet.
Why are we so quick to waive away Nurse’s 8-17 goal differential against elite’s without McDavid as some impossible task? A) No other defenseman in the league gets to play with McDavid and they have to take on elites B) he’s playing most of those minutes with a Top-5 player on the planet in Leon Draisaitl and C) he’s paid like #1 defenseman.
I’ve said it for month’s now. If some combination of 29/25 + whomever you like (lets say 5/91/37) can’t produce north of 52-55% goal share while using up north of 30 million in cap dollars against all comp in the regular season, there’s little reason to believe they’ll hold up against truly elite competition and these stunning numbers for 97/2/14 will all be for naught.
We’re who everyone on here thinks Colorado is. Control MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar and rip apart the underbelly is the narrative. Let’s look in the mirror.
The goal differential for Nurse w/o McDavid speaks to Nurse, but also to Ceci and roster depth. Difficult to cover every position in a cap world, but the Oilers clearly believe in Ceci AND in Desharnais. I have expressed my doubts about Nurse-Desharnais, but we’ll see.
I had the same initial reaction….
But, I believe Ceci could be dragging down some of the Nurse results there .
Kulak isn’t doing well partnered with him now. And Kulak has established that he is very capable as 3LD. They have complimentary skill sets, they should work well together
Like theoretically Nurse Bouch should. It seems so much more complicated than it is. The league is at the level now where players need to have well rounded games. The Oilers have quite a few players that are very one dimensional. This is what makes it so hard to fit the puzzles pieces together
Well, it’s Ekholm that has helped Bouchard, now it appears after all these years it’s Nurse that needs a righthanded Ekholm also. Enter Stecher. Is it too much to ask?
According to McT, Stecher has been in their sights for quite some time.
Not that Stecher is the righthanded Ekholm. LOL
He’s probably the best of the three. It would be outside of what we are used to for Csci or Des to sit unless hurt though
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Not the KH way. Maybe the KK way
KK works with what KH gets him to work with. I don’t know if KK has any say. Maybe he does?
Yeah, it’s early….but does not look good to start
Realize after the trade deadline, the coach is trying to work out the best line combinations with the extra pieces acquired. All the while, falling back to McDrai when the team falls behind. I wonder if the constant shuffle is affecting the players with little chance to build chemistry, then losing confidence as things don’t work.
I think it’s time to set some lines, and stick with them so the players can start building familiarity with linemate’s tendencies and start regaining confidence as they head towards the playoffs.
Kane McDavid Hyman
Mcleod Draisaitl Foegele
RNH Henrique Perry
Janmark Carrick Brown
Ek Bouch
Nurse Ceci
Kulak Vinnie
I’d be fine subbing Stecher for Ceci as well
Great post!
Coaching staff is integrating three new guys and had its first real injury on defense in a calendar year. There will be some friction as these get ironed out and guys find roles. I liked the lines last game for the most part. Drop Janmark down and run Kane-McLeod-Perry and see how they perform. Of course we need to see if Henrique has the speed to hold down 2LW, Jets will be a nice matchup.
From yesterday – You’d expect one of the Carrick/Brown chance or maybe one of the two Nuge posts to go in. And you’d expect one of the four GAs to hit a post or be saved. They should have won yesterday. They should have won earlier this year against Dallas and twice against Tampa Bay. Sometimes the process doesn’t overtake luck. That’s what happened yesterday.
Throw Ceci a bone. He and Kulak got to play with Ryan McLeod on the new 3rd line which had some growing pains its first two shifts. Janmark had puck control issues and McLeod was a little scrambly. They settled down in the 2nd. Ceci played fine for the most part. He’s been a lot more active lately. Pivot point was the Buffalo game.
In the past 2 games where 5 EV GA were scored Ceci and Kulak are -1. No Dmen are even or better. Vinny is also -1. The other 3 are all -2.
When have they ever had set lines? This is nothing new and it’s something the players are accustomed to. The coach has shown a desire to have set lines. But with a few new players on the roster, how else is he to find the right combinations before playoff time..
Except it’s not just when we are behind.
McDrai have been the starting line up for quite a few games.
I commented about this as well. Maybe something catches fire, but I think the dye is cast. This set up seems the best
I have been thinking I would play McLeod as the C though – Foegele McL Drai. I haven’t been enjoying Drai’s game lately, they need someone at C that is going to skate back hard and play with energy throughout the game
The line juggling is a sign that Holland got more players but didn’t fill any holes at the trade deadline. If you have to ask the question about how to deploy the roster, the trade deadline is a failure.
Time will tell.
These lines ARE the way for me.
Kane should be with McDavid as he hasn’t worked with Drai and he needs to be in the tip 6 in order to provide the impact he can, and needs to, have.
Foegele and Drai should be locked – three years of date tell us that. McLeod and FOegele work and that trio works.
Yes, there will be games where it doesn’t jive with those two on the wings but all subsets of that trio, and that trio itself, crushes goal share and that’s all that matters.
Reverting back to the standard pairings is the way. Deharnais is not good in the minutes needed to be Nurse’s partner and Ceci is better with Nurse in those minutes than with Kulak.
Told you so. This team doesn’t work hard for 60 minutes and they are not good enough to turn it on and off at will. Sure they will make the playoffs but can’t win the cup the way they play. Look at a team like Boston nowhere near the talent of the Oilers but they play 60 minutes most nights. It’s a game of inches and Oilers just don’t have it.
Boston has gotten knocked out 1st round the last 2 years and has only made it past the 2nd round once in the last 10 years. I guess the Bruins don’t have it either.
Really I didn’t know Boston lost in the 1st rd last year. They give 100% most games sometimes it’s not enough and they lost in the playoffs. Oilers are not even close at the moment. Great team ha
Florida has shown that they perhaps were not a fluke last year.
The Bruins have a much better defence and roll 4 lines
You do everything to increase your probability of winning and Boston has done that in the last 2 yrs. Obviously it doesn’t guarantee anything. Oilers are not doing everything they can, and when you don’t work hard enough with that talent well you get results you deserve.
But they don’t have Connor & Leon. I will suggest the Oilers can now roll 4 lines and their defense is much improved, when they decide to play defense, that is.
No they don’t. The Oilers fail to roll four lines and always depend on two players. The defense has one excellent d-man in Ekholm. The rest is not Stanley Cup calibre.
They actually are good enough to turn it on and off at will. They know it too. That can be part of the problem.
No they’re not. Remember the NYI they could coast during the regular season and make the playoffs and turn it on. Oilers are not that team, they would need to win first. The can’t even beat non playoff teams.
That’s because they’re coasting during the regular season, and they’ve made the playoffs.
Except for when the Boston Bruins don’t.
Nope, just like every other team, the Bruins do NOT play 60 minutes of hard and structured hockey every game.
Who is teaching our big D men to starfish. They need to stop
Also I’m probably in the minority but a save would have been nice but can’t blame the goalie
First goal starfish to nowhere with a pass across the crease to the front with goalie moving to his side.
Second goal two on 1 with cheating a bit for the pass. This is the one that he probably wants back
third one. Wicked shot. That one’s going in
4th one: pass from side to side below the has marks. That’s exactly what needs to be prevented. Goalie no chance.
So while we kept shots down. We gave up some guaranteed goals
You can blame the goalie if you wish, but a .913 sp and a 10-5-0 record from your backup is excellent. I think the Oilers have been splendid this season. A tough weekend in Ontario doesn’t change much for me, although I would like to see Ceci rested.
I don’t blame the goalie. That’s what I’m saying. He’s played really well and that includes the last game. Really tough when you don’t see many pucks but the few you do see are guaranteed goals. I don’t see any goalie stopping at least 3 of the goals.
I thought he was a little slow getting over on the last one. I’m not a goalie.
Not many goaltenders stop Draisaitl from his spot. Why should we expect Oiler goaltenders to stop basically the same shot.
Because we’re Oiler fans. LOL.
Not that Oiler goalies should stop them all, but no one else on earth scores from there like Draisaitl does so this isn’t really a fair conversation.
OV is chasing down Gretzky. The one timer of the cross seam has been defeating goaltenders forever.
OK, there is one other. Was just saying that one shouldn’t be expecting other players to replicate Draisaitl’s success rate from that spot.
On both Chychrun goals Pickard dropped to his knee/s at the right post before the pass, which hampered his reaction time coming across the crease.
Bad habits spread a lot quicker than good ones. The starfish was popular a few seasons ago with the D group, now that Nurse is struggling again it’s back!
I think it’s fair to say the goalie didn’t make enough saves and the team played poorly in front of him. Both can be true
It works when it’s executed in a timely fashion. But timing is everything.
It was a pretty sick saucer pass. I’m not a big fan of the starfish either but Batherson made a pretty incredible play there.
It was because the Oiler defender went down to early giving Batherson plenty of time to saucer a perfect pass to allow the goal. It’s all about execution.
I agree Leadfarmer and said so a few times in the game thread. Sure I would have liked another save or two, but I can’t lay too much fault on Pickard for any of the goals.
Goals 1 and 3 were basically uncontested shots from inside the dot. Both were good shots and Nurse provided the flyby screen on the 3rd. Can’t really blame the goalie for the Stuetzle goal on the 2 on 1. Stuetzle is a sniper. Goal # 4 is a Drai PP special goal that we celebrate when it’s Drai and blame the goalie when it’s on us.
The Sens scored a couple up high in the corners where grandma hides the cookies. The Oilers should have tried the same.
All the Sens goals were scored on the short side. They must have done some scouting on Pickard.
More likely the know the doors the Oilers coverage leave open and filled those gaps for mostly uncontested shots.
The starfish seems to work excellent against the Iulers. I cannot remember the last 2-on 1 pass that got through
I think they should go back to the common pairings, they work better than this does. It’s the best they have given who they have. Stecher as 7 unless Coffey wants to rock the boat pretty good. I’m not sure unsettling Ceci too much is a good idea, and think he has that personality type. If there is a problem in playoffs all bets are off, but going into them the group needs to be in the right head space. Given the nature of the group I think it’s key
I’m not sure not playing with McDavid is some sort of extra burden for defenseman playing top players. It’s great if you get it, but only one pair at a time plays with him, and the other teams D don’t get to at all. They still face top players and are expected to do well enough at least. If anything it’s pointing to the non McDavid forwards not playing well enough
I think they should play Nurse with Connor to spread the better players around more. Investing everything if Leon is with Connor, or almost everything if he’s not, in one 5 man unit doesn’t seem to work overall. Let Bouch Ek help drive lesser lines and improve their performance
I think he needs the distance and would benefit from a rest, but it’s not like I know the guy.
My concern is it’s late in the year to be messing around too much. They need all hands on deck. If PBing Ceci doesn’t relax him but instead makes his confidence even lower, it’s not worth it
I think the way to go is put the D back to what it was and have Nurse Ceci play with Connor. Connor Bouch and Ek are the 3 that don’t need help. Everyone else seems to at the moment
What’s done is done, there is no changing the nature of the beast until summer. They can tinker with the forwards. Really the issue there is the older slower guys, or ones that don’t skate hard all shift, need a speedy transporter to enhance their lines and push the D back
I could see Nurse & Stecher playing with Connor regularly. But not Nurse & Desharnais.
Put Vinny back with Kulak, they formed a solid 3rd pair. And what’s with the officials penalizing Vinny Desharnais for doing his job. As usual the league is doing their darndest to foil the Oil.
The word is the league isn’t biased. But when the Oilers get amongst the fewest PPs in the league, I can’t see the justification for it. There isn’t any. Connor should earn a 6 pack a game alone
Or whatever Connor drinks.
Last night’s game was certainly an entertaining one to be in the stands. Hyman’s 50th the highlight. What a moment! Definitely an honour to witness that live. With the rate the game was going, once Eks went into box we knew it was over. Tough weekend.
That was a great moment. The smiles on every face showed how thrilled he and his teammates were in that moment. I agree. Great game to witness live.
Aren’t veteran defensemen allowed a slight hold here and there? Especially with 3 minutes left in a tied game. Makes you wonder.