I talk about Sam Pollock a lot on this blog, children remember nightmares forever. My favourite general manager to follow was probably Whitey Herzog with the St. Louis Cardinals. He wasn’t always GM in St. Louis, but pulled the strings and found Willie McGee leaning on a lamp post in downtown Fairhope, Alabama. The funny thing is no one knew Willie McGee was Willie McGee until he ran down a dozen triples and created chaos with his bat and his legs. My favourite part of any sport is team building. The 1987 Oilers were Sather’s finest hour. I think the 2024 Oilers are peak Holland.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The Oilers face a looming cap crunch this summer. How bad will it be?
- Lowetide: If Oilers’ Philip Broberg is next man up, he needs NHL games soon
- DNB: How Adam Henrique is slowly becoming a key player for the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-0-1)
- On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
- Actual March results: 7-1-1, 15 points in nine games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 42-21-4, 88 points in 67 games
The Oilers are delivering on promise in a big way this month. The scoring rates are incredible, led by Connor McDavid’s 4.67 five-on-five pts-60. There are eight skaters over 2.00 in pts-60, including Mattias Ekholm (2.9) and Connor Brown (2.12). Evan Bouchard has a 94 percent goal share at five-on-five in March. NINE. FOUR. Stuart Skinner has a .944 save percentage at five-on-five. Music!! These are the good old days.
THE NUMBERS
There’s so many things I want to say, so this is going to have the feel of a riff as opposed to any organized thoughts. We are very early days, but you can see Holland’s thought process in bringing in Adam Henrique, Sam Carrick and Troy Stecher. Last night, I began to see Stecher in a new way. I didn’t see him as a capable puck mover who could play alongside Darnell Nurse against the street wise and street toughs, but he’s an option and unique on the roster. I would like to see it again.
Cody Ceci and Evander Kane had single moments of struggle, but I thought Kane also did several things well. He was physical, made some solid plays and had a couple of looks. Ceci, I believe, should come out of the lineup for a few games. I’m a fan, but he’s getting eaten alive by the forecheck and bad luck, along with his own decision making. It happens, even to veterans. I mentioned Terry Harper yesterday (although Al Gore washed away two weeks work by the good people who visit this blog every day), and today will mention Mark Fayne. Ceci is struggling, and I think the Oilers have six men who can do the work until he resets. I remain a fan of his work.
I’ve been thinking about the top additions to the Oilers roster (outside the draft) since Connor McDavid arrived. I’ve decided the most impactful (in a good way) were Andrej Sekera, Patrick Maroon, Cam Talbot, Adam Larsson, Ryan Strome, Mike Smith, Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Warrren Foegele, Mattias Ekholm, and probably Calvin Pickard.
The three that stand out? Larsson, Hyman and Ekholm. Only one of those players cost the sun, the moon and the stars. Hyman and Ekholm were fire last night.
I thought the glimmer twins were exceptional in the Buffalo game, big Leon was engaged across 200 feet and he’d have worked another 100 if they let him. Draisaitl is a joy to watch pass the pack, I do think it’s his strongest asset but it’s like trying to pick your favourite Rembrandt.
You know, I get the idea that running Leon solo without 97 makes all the sense in the world. Then you look at the destruction this line accomplished 7:21 of five-on-five and how in the world can you blame a coach for taking a big slice of the even-strength minutes and turning it into his own personal power play? I get the logic, understand the numbers and still I think most of us would give in to temptation in the same situation.
The Henrique line with Nuge and Perry did good things on the night, the utility available to the coach in a player like Nugent-Hopkins is highly valuable. I liked the Carrick line and am thrilled for Connor Brown. You know, sometimes players have a tough run in the regular season and become playoff heroes. That would be a fantastic addition to this roster.
I want to apologize for the two weeks worth of your comments that went up in smoke. If it returns later today, like the swallows to Capistrano, we shall rejoice. Otherwise, we loved those weeks and we do remember them.
The Oilers signed James Stefan yesterday, expect you’ve read about him. I liked him plenty on his draft day, had him No. 59 in the 2022 draft.
Friday and lots to discuss, including an exceptional win by the Oilers, March Madness and a signing by Edmonton designed to restock the system. Music! Guests include Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk, plus we’ll have Declanations with Declan Krueger. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
No manager coach or player is all good or all bad. That every coaching group has resorted to using the Duo to get past what the rest of the roster couldn’t do seems like a pretty clear indication the.coaches don’t have enough to work with and keep them mostly apart
What stands out to me is that most of our main competitors have built their D groups differently. Ours has gotten larger, but I think lacks mobility and puck moving ability comparatively. Which seems odd given they want to be a possession team driving play
So what remains is that we will see if KH has done enough to get them over the top. And if the next management group can take them even higher. I sure hope so, I think they have another level to get to
I just notice that Skinner is now top 10 in the NHL.com stats page for GAA. That was unexpected a few months ago.
Expected: Skinner has the #1 stache.
For me GAA is more a team stat, which affects SV% which a goalie has ‘more’ control over individually
Stu’s numbers are even more impressive needing to overcome the start by the team
I’m happy to admit I was wrong about the Ekholm trade. Ekholm has been exactly what we needed, and he’s made the whole team better (especially Bouchard). I do think that Tyson Barrie has more value than people think, including in the playoffs, but Ekholm is the horse we need.
I think Holland’s record has generally been pretty good, and Ekholm is a big reason for that. If we win Stanley after Holland’s departure, I hope he’ll get some credit (like Stevie Y after leaving Tampa).
Tyson Barrie can’t even crack Nashville’s starting 6. How much value do you think he has?
For the right team at the right price he has value. Just check the teams with the worst PP % and you will find a list of those who will check in with his agent.
Last night, I began to see Stecher in a new way.
I had a similar thought last night. What if, instead of being Dick Tarnstrom, he’s actually the Jaro Spacek addition?
Munny and I were saying here yesterday that stylistic he is a match for Nurse in that they complement each others strengths & weaknesses but the question remains whether or not Stetcher can effectively manage top four minutes. (Really, you can check yesterday’s comment section) 😇
I think that question has yet to be answered but on paper they match. I think it is Godot who pointed out elsewhere here the comparison to how well Nurse and Bear played together even though Bear is really not a top four dman in this league.
With defense I think it is always a mistake to look at individual numbers when assessing effectiveness. You have to look at the pair and my complaints about Ceci have always been that he and Nurse detract from each others strengths rather than elevate each others game.
That centerfield at old Busch Stadium was huge. It must’ve been cheap to go to games back then my parents used to pack up up in the truck and head there from Champaign Urbana, IL and we had no money at all. This may have been a few years before Willie – Lou Brock, Bake McBride, and Reggie Smith were patrolling the outfield back then.
Dynamic outfield trio, though I have always wondered how “Bake” McBride got his nickname.
Will all these comments evaporate in the middle of the night?
Better that way. All our old ideas become new again.
Even better, all our bad ideas become deniable. 🥸
So implausible deniability….
Except for those that post the same thing repeatedly, day after day.
.
Ahh, so Godot is the saboteur behind this…
😉
They say that anything on the Internet can never truly be removed…. unless its on Lowetide’s blog 🙂
All of these comments will be lost, like tears in rain.
The fact KK breaks out CMD-Drai-Hyman whenever he thinks the team needs a boost (which it seems is every game now) and the fact he’s going to give all the limited PP minutes to the first unit once again puts us in the position of having the length of our playoff run depend mostly (entirely?) on the rest of our forward corps. Can they do something positive at 5v5 against LAK, VGK, VAN, etc.?
Why is this the case?
since 2021, McDavid and Draisaitl are 312-99 GF/GA in all strengths. I am confused why its such a bad thing to play these two players together, considering we now have the depth to play 3 solid lines in the lineup WITHOUT Drai and McDavid together. they average 3 goals for every goal against, that is a massive advantage when they play together!
I just can’t see why two players can combine for 8.36 GF/60 and 2.65 GA/60 and claim this is a bad thing? I understand people are concerne the other lines will struggle, but this is utter and complete dominance, and this is not your aunt’s Oilers anymore. We’re not running Nygard, Haas or Korpikoski on our 3rd lines.
I don’t think many folks are suggesting to separate them on the powerplay. Provide the same sort of goal share results at 5v5 or even strength & then have the discussion.
Coach pressed the right buttons last night. It worked and the Oilers won.
Interesting use of All Strengths, but OK.
My main point is that, with this strategy, our success will depend even more on the rest of our forwards, because the rest of the forwards will have to play 38 or so minutes of ice time without either of the two on the ice. The secondary point is that, if the rest of the forwards haven’t had a serious chance to gel as offensive units with PP time, they’re less likely to produce offense and win their minutes in the 5v5 state. Your numbers suggest that CMD and Drai together will spot us a two goal edge each game. Given that our opponents will have their own PP opportunities, can a forward group that can’t score on its own hold on to a two goal edge when playing just 5v5 and PK minutes? That’s why I focus on RNH, Kane, Henrique, Perry, Foegele, McLeod, Carrick, Brown, Janmark, etc. more than anything CMD and Drai do. If there’s one thing that’s clear to me after watching CMD and Drai’s “utter and complete dominance” while watching my aunt’s Oilers is that it won’t win us a Cup. It’s the performance of the supporting cast that matters.
The good news is the supporting cast is much improved.
Seems like most of Oil Country is united that Oilers are best served by 97-29 on separate lines.
Last night:
Separate lines for 40 minutes except 1 PP (goal) & a couple of post-PK power shifts (tilted ice). 3-3.
97-29 reunited for third period. 5-0.
Cue outrage.
Care to tell Oil Country what’s happened the last four playoff runs when coaches have bailed to that line?
I’m all for combining them at times. But when it’s the default our springs have ended early. Keeping them apart allows you to win more of your possible line matchups. It takes the pressure off everyone else to be perfect defensively at 5v5.
The numbers against Buffalo here show that if you hold those lines you’re more likely than not to outscore your opponents. The match card from the Avs game showed something similar. Although the ending was the Duo plotzing the lead away.
Something spooked Coach K during the winning streak. He went away from the Nuge-McD-Hyman line that was tearing the cover off the ball specifically to reunite them. I thought that was odd. He’s stuck to it and only begrudgingly pulled them apart since.
Our coaches need to channel their inner Gretzky with them apart and hold that panic point a little longer. It would help if Ryan McLeod shot the puck a little more.
Tippett did so in Game 1 vs the Jets, stuck with it despite results, & I’m convinced it was a mistake.
Woodcroft did so when Draisaitl got injured by Anderson in Game 6 vs. the Kings. Oilers came back to win that series, shocked Calgary with 97-29 in the ascendant, but got beaten by a superior Colorado team. So, was that a failure?
Woodcroft did so again last spring when McDavid got kneed by Doughty in Game 3, Oilers came back to win that series. Woody made a few questionable match-up choices against Vegas, arguably that was one of them.
It’s not as if the Oilers were overwhelming Cup faviourites in each of those years & the coach actively torpedoed their chances by refusing to see the light. I’m convinced injury played a role, even as the players did their damnedest to play through them.
No outrage. And I don’t think the team is best served with the two on separate lines. KK probably sees the numbers from the playoffs from the past 3 seasons. Those two guys by themselves don’t win the goal battle, and we’ve clearly lost when they’ve been off (of course, we’re including PK results in this thread). The only winning formula has been to put them together. If you could get them to play 40ish minutes a night instead of 20ish, it’s a sure fire winning strategy.
It’s inevitable this HC will put them together, like the other HC’s before him. It’s the only path to winning we’ve found so far. But, sadly, the past few seasons have seen that path run short. It is concerning that those guys can’t seem to win their minutes except when together, especially Leon. But this season has been different. Maybe the ending will be too.
Im curious.
Do other fan bases get as concerned about combining their top two forwards? I feel like the oilers have as much depth as Toronto, more than colorado. Is there the dame concern there?
Boston has marchand and pasta together. Concern?
Im genuinely curious. Because i prefer them apart but wonder if we are off base.
It seems more common than not that teams are loading up their top guys.
Are Aves fans upset that makar and Mackinnon play together like 80% of nates shifts??
Is there cause for us to be more concerned than these other fan bases?
Not necessarily. But I would suggest combining their (our) top 2 centres is… and they’re not just our 2 best centres, but 2 of the league’s best centres. I agree that there are times when we just aren’t clicking that uniting them makes some sense.
But I remain convinced that in most game conditions, they each centre their own line. Building that trust and chemistry in each line, is extremely profitable.
Yep, many folks share your conviction. Yet 5 consecutive professional hockey coaches have chosen to keep their options open.
Is it just me, or is the Kulak-Ceci pairing just not a fit? I never see them good together, not sure if it’s a stylistic thing, or they don’t trust the other, or what.
Nope. Took a look at their pairing on NST and the numbers are demonstrably worse than any other Kulak pairing. Not sure how to post that NST link or I’d link the comparison. Also wonder how the QoC shakes out, if they’re being deployed in a tougher role than Kulak-Desharnais, for instance.
Agreed, Kulak and Ceci have not been strong together. Now to figure out why that is.
I notice Keith is missing from the list. Larsson was good for us, then he wasn’t good for us. Lunging at forwards, missing checks, not being a guy to count on against good players. 2018-02-01 was understandably very tough for him. We got better when he (sensibly) chose to leave and we added a year from retirement Keith.
The Right-Handed Ekholm …
Simply doesn’t or didn’t exist as a trade possibility this past year.
It’s evident that adding a top-drawer RHD would make this team a top-5 contender, but I don’t think that player ever existed. YMMV on Sean Walker, but my opinion is that there isn’t much gap between him and Troy Stecher.
Did you know: Stecher went 4 2-2-4 in the series against us in 2022?
Stecher is probably Ethan Bear with better mobility, which has a chance of being better than Ceci or Desharnais with Nurse, but probably not better than Broberg IF he had 60 games with Nurse.
Doesn’t Broberg play left D?
Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
adding a top-drawer RHD would make this team a top-5 contender?
What are they without the top-drawer RD? Top 10? Top 16?
Are we for sure a top-5 team?
It’s awfully close, but I have it handicapped:
1) Florida
2) Colorado
3) Dallas
4) NY Rangers
5) Oilers – Vancouver – Carolina – Winnipeg – Vegas
It’s hard to argue there’s much separating #1 through #9. Those top-4 teams have incredible strength on defense.
My point being a significant upgrade at RD, as implausible as it might’ve been, likely vaults us into the top 3 or 4.
Yesterday I floated the idea of Stetcher possibly replacing Ceci and didn’t get much of a response. Ceci has struggled a lot recently and it seems he is culpable every game for a goal against. Perhaps he just needs some rest or time to reset???? Right now he appears to be a liability heading for the play offs. I also agree with getting Broberg some games prior to play offs.
Do we still have cap limitations or can Broberg be recalled without financial concern? We would still have 3 other recall options down the stretch IIRC. Seems like a no-brainer to have him take some reps in March/Apr.
CapFriendly lists EDM with a current cap space of:
$1,552,512
LT, since you mentioned it, what IS your favourite Rembrandt?
Saskia smiling
My favorite is “The night watch”.
I love being on a hockey blog where this question can be both asked and answered. Thanks LT for all you do.
Here here!
Maybe it’s time to revisit Brown in the first line again. He is infinitely better defensively than Kane and maybe he can rediscover his offence. I don’t think Kane should be on the top line because he’s always cheating for offence.
I don’t like it. At All.
But nobody could touch the depth of running a McLeod – Draisaitl – Foegele 2nd line followed by a Nugent-Hopkins – Henrique – Hyman 3rd line.
McDavid might have some say about who his winger’s are.
I got a lot of grief for suggesting Ceci was the vulnerability on D.
The definition of insanity and hoping to be 3rd time lucky was/is not a good strategy. As a fallback strategy, plan D, okay. But not plan A or plan B. But Holland has made a mistake in not getting Broberg as ready as possible as plan C just in case Stecher is not good enough as the plan A acquisition or Desharnais as plan B.
I know you disagreed w/me on my comment last night after the 3rd Buffalo goal (Ceci-Kulak not working), but in general I agree with you.
Having seen the numbers and watched him both in person an on TV, Ceci is struggling. I give him credit because he tries and his “give a s*&^” meter is high. But as LT says, he struggles (and last night was part bad luck, bad bounce) against a hard forecheck and his footspeed is lacking.
Too late to trade him, but giving him a night or two off might help him reset. He’s what he is, so now it’s about making the best of the situation for what we all hope is a long playoff run.
Maybe he’s one of those sensitive types who don’t respond well to getting shit upon by thousands of people on the regular.
You’d think he’s be used to it playing for 3 different teams in Canada, no?
Yes, one would think…
This is not why you got/get grief for your “suggestions”
Some people cannot handle the truth! -) -)
The truth is that most people can’t handle the truth but it really isn’t that much of a problem considering how few actually know it & those that do prefer to keep it to themselves. 😎
Playoff Simulation
Round 1: 4-1 (5-2 in 7 games)
Round 2: 4-2
No pressure to win game 7 at Toronto. Round 3 starts in the nation’s capital.
What?
The Oilers are playing the Sens in the 3rd round?
Your simulation’s credibility just took a big hit.
Ha!
I don’t think you understand the difference between the playoffs and the regular season.
In the regular season, any presumptive or aspiring contender is a test, and the opportunity to create doubt and uncertainty in a potential rival for the Cup.
The Oilers also have been poor in Game 1’s in the actual playoffs.
So regular season tilts against presumptive contenders should be viewed as practicing Game 1’s.
Plus, the yahoos in the centre of the universe have to be shut up with the Oilers delivering a wedgie to all those wearing their Captain Underpants underwear.
LT… perhaps an error… but Ryan Strome? Really? Remind me… what needle did he move in a positive direction?
Provided the Oilers with a 3C that didn’t get caved.
I still don’t understand why TMc abandoned the idea of sliding him up to top 6 RW from time to time. Strome got close to zero cherry minutes, then got given away in what may have been the single worst trade of the Chiarelli era, which is saying a mouthhful.
I believe he got one game as RW in the top six IN EXHIBITION, scored and was never tried there again – something like 18 minutes on the season with McDavid (i think, would have to go check but on a plane).
It was a few games iirc, but TMc abandoned it early & never went back to it.
I agree on E Kane. No points, but he was definitely more agent-of-chaos than also-in-photo.
Kane will want a Cup as much as anybody on the roster, as he is down to his last two best shots this year and next.
Twice Kane charged up ice on a 2-on-1, twice the puck carrier used him as a decoy, shot & scored. No points but a factor.
Then there was the Nurse goal, where Kane stealing the puck behind the net kicked off the entire chaotic sequence. He & Perry were like 2 dogs on the same bone after that.
Not a perfect game, but he did some things.
Put Kane & Perry with Carrick on a line and see what chaos occurs.
Prospectaddition!
The healthy NAamateurs whose seasons continue grew to a quintet with the inking of James Stefan. Being born in early August, maybe* he’s a Leo. In point of fact, never before can I recall plucking a 100-pt. (or close to) FA this late in a season, but here we are.
It’s unknown whether Mazura has pictures of home from the Czech Republic in his dorm, but we do know that St. Lawrence is in an ECAC semifinal this afternoon.
One cannot call Stonehouse lazy, especially after a game-high 4 points (1+3) and 8 SOG in Ottawa’s convincing win yesternight.
One may also remember a decade ago when Flint had a problem with their water–smoke being on it was not a factor though. They are playoff-bound with Day as their starter.
Lachance and his BU squad go space truckin’ in a Hockey East semi.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 2 p.m.
Flint (Day) @ 5 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance) @ 5:30 p.m.
Portland (Stefan) @ 8 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Mallaig time.
*No maybe about it, Stefan is indeed Leonine.
It boggles me when I read the Sekera signing as a top blunder of Chiarelli.
That was a great signing and he was providing real value for cap hit until Getzlaf changed his career in an instant.
Sekera was a gift until he got injured
I’ll never know why Holland was so quick to buyout Sekera as one of his first orders of business. Unless we had Tretiak in between the pipes no way we were winning with the likes of Jurco-Nygard-Hass-Sheahan etc. So why not keep Sekera at least 1 more year?
He was a replacement level player post-injury and a cap anchor. He never recovered to even 50% the player he was.
He still managed to play 5 years with 3 being in Dallas I think your greatly exaggerating the 50% reference. I hate buyouts especially when your not a threat to win a a cup all your doing is pushing it down the river when you actually could capitalize on your cap space.
Never know? Every single time (easily a baker’s dozen by now) you bring this up, OP tells you. Yet you choose to ignore the facts, or even acknowledge the information as presented.
I know it doesn’t fit your narrative, but take a look at the numbers. He was broken after the hit by Getzlaf. Unfortunately he never recovered. The numbers show this conclusively.
It’s not unreasonable to think Holland knew that, and wanted to see what he had in younger players like Jones and Lagesson.
https://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&playerid=8471284&sit=5v5&stype=2
https://puckiq.com/players/8471284
It was painfully obvious that the brain was willing but the body was unable to abide during his last couple years in Edmonton. Holland made the right choice and cut bait.
I thought Kenny liked to marinate players but I guess that didn’t fit your narrative back then.
Back to your usual red herring self. You didn’t bother to click the links and see the numbers for yourself, did you? I was a big fan of Sekera. He was toast by the time he was bought out; he never recovered his earlier form. It was time to move on.
Lagesson was drafted in, *checks notes, 2014. Jones in 2015.
By the time Rej was in DAL it was 2019.
What narrative of mine was that, exactly? If you’re going to post an ad hominem please try to be accurate.
I honestly don’t recall anyone calling Rej signing a blunder…he was our #1 and allowed cover for Klefbom to grow.
The logic/timing of his buyout on the other hand…
I have definitely not been Nurses biggest fan over the years, but it was a pleasure to watch him play with that kind of swagger last night. It’s been a long long time.
Given how well Desharnais and Kulak play it’s time for Ceci to take a seat. It’s looking more and more like we probably gonna have to add to dump him this offseason. Which it’s kind of too bad, cause we really did ask too much of him
Nice to see a Henrique line in the positive side of 50% for a night along with Kane on a positive line (albeit, 2 minutes).