We are here once again, at the corner of heartache and vine. The place where dreams of youth reach their intended destination, the gifted kids called one by one to a life the rest of the hockey world can only dream. Fathers to sons, generation to generation, the NHL renews itself in seven simple drafts.
Call the roll, let the young men in suits find their colours and fulfill their dreams. The hard work begins tomorrow, and the fans await the new hopefuls and find their stories to tell.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers look to RFA’s to find solutions?
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: The 2022 NHL draft has a chance to be unique in Edmonton Oilers history.
- DNB: Tyler Wright Q&A
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Is this Oilers’ year to find a world-class agitator in NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Which Oilers are most likely to return next season? Who goes?
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
THE FINAL 125
It’s been the most unusual year for my list, mostly because the Oilers kept winning playoff games. I was tweaking behind the scenes, but could publish very little. I didn’t use the usual resources because there wasn’t time. I would like to acknowledge Adam Sherren, whose strong work in the QMJHL this year influenced this list in a big way. Here is my list, math rules, speed is the strongest influence, and there aren’t many goalies this time.
- RC Shane Wright (OHL). Peter Harling (Dobber) compares to Patrice Bergeron.
- RC Matt Savoie (WHL). Scott Wheeler: Inside the offensive zone, he’s lethal.
- RD Simon Nemec (Slovak). A complete skill set, impressive WHC’s.
- LC Logan Cooley (USHL). Incredible skater, skilled and elusive. Dual threat.
- RW Joakim Kemell (Liiga). High skill, great shot, 15 goals in Liiga.
- RD David Jiricek (Czech). Solid two-way D, knee problem interrupted season.
- LW Juraj Slafkovsky (Liiga). Big skill winger who spiked during the season.
- LD Denton Mateychuk (WHL). Elite skater, complete range, impressive passer.
- RW Jonathan Lekkerimaki (Sweden). Skill winger with exceptional shot.
- LW Cutter Gauthier (USHL). Big W with outstanding shot and sixth sense for goals.
- LC Markus Kasper (Sweden). Range of skills, safe pick, can help on offense.
- RW Jagger Firkus (WHL). Quick, skilled, difficult to contain.
- RW Frank Nazar (USHL). Fast train, intelligent, creative, impressive offense.
- LD Pavel Mintyukov (OHL). Top-end skater, puck mover. Some chaos defensively.
- LW Isaac Howard (USHL). Fast release, creative, emerging.
- LD Kevin Korchinski (WHL). Two-way defender, mobile and smart.
- RW Danila Yurov (KHL). Great skater, high skill, aggressive, complete.
- LW Liam Ohgren (Sweden). Goal scorer had a strong season.
- RW Jordan Dumais (QMJHL). Undersized skill winger impressive playmaker.
- LW Brad Lambert (Liiga). Outstanding speed, range of skills, where are the goals?
- RC Conor Geekie (WHL). Best PF at the top end of the draft.
- LC David Goyette (OHL). Speedy center with skill and two-way ability.
- LW Jiri Kulich, (Czech). Skill winger who posted strong numbers this year.
- LC Servac Petrovsky (OHL). Aug. 2004, slick, skilled, does everything at high speed.
- LW Gleb Trikozov (MHL). Smart two-way winger with a great shot.
- RW Jimmy Snuggerud (USHL). Range of skills, scores from a variety of areas.
- LW Adam Sykora (Slovak). Impressive skill, one of the youngest players in the draft.
- LW Luca DelBelBelluz (OHL). Size, two-way ability, and an offensive spike.
- RW Filip Mesar (Slovak). Speed demon, undersized and dynamic.
- LD Lian Bichsel (Sweden). Big, mobile defenseman with two-way skills.
- LC Rutger McGroarty (USHL). Skill C, shooter, great passer.
- LW Reid Schaefer (WHL). Impressive scoring winger spiked late.
- LW Ivan Miroshnichenko (VHL). Top end speed and skill. Much higher in normal year.
- LC Julian Lutz (DEL). High end skill, injured much of the season.
- RD Ty Nelson (OHL). Impressive offensive defensman.
- G Topias Leinonen, (Finn U20). He’s 6.05, 216, great numbers and consistency.
- LD Owen Pickering (WHL). Huge two-way defenseman.
- RD Elias Salomonsson (SHL). Effective two-way D.
- LC Daniil Zhilkin (OHL). Good wheels, two-way C. Safe pick.
- LD Lane Hutson (USHL). Small, dynamic offensive defenseman.
- RC Nathan Gaucher (QMJHL). Two-way center with size.
- LW Adam Ingram (USHL). Big winger with skill, quality passer.
- LW Mike Milne (WHL). Gritty winger with skill.
- RD Seamus Casey (USHL). Mobile offensive defenseman.
- G Hugo Hävelid, (Swe U20). Small, brilliant goalie.
- LW Jani Nyman (Liiga). Big winger can score goals.
- LC Noah Ostlund (Swe U20). Two-way C, complete game.
- LC Theo Rochette (QMJHL). Talented and creative.
- LC Jack Hughes (NCAA). Rugged two-way C.
- RD Tristan Luneau (QMJHL). Big two-way defenseman has offensive potential.
- LD Mats Lindgren (WHL). Flashy two-way defender has some range.
- RC Owen Beck (OHL). Speed demon with skill.
- RC Ben King (WHL). Overager spiked this year.
- RD Ryan Chesley (USHL). Has the complete range, lacks top end offense.
- RC Tucker Robertson (OHL). Is strong and skilled, could be a steal.
- RD Noah Warren (QMJHL). Effective shutdown defenseman.
- LC Cedrick Guindon (OHL). Undersized skill center.
- RD Jacob Guévin (USHL). Offensive defenseman, fine skater.
- LW James Stefan (WHL). Impressive passing and scoring winger.
- RD Otto Salin (Liiga). Emerging offensive defenseman.
- LW Alexander Perevalov (MHL). Dynamic skill winger.
- G Sergei Murashov (Rus Jr). Brilliant goalie, undersized.
- LC Filip Bystedt (SHL). Big (6.04, 205) C with passing skill.
- RD David Spacek (QMJHL). Strong underlying numbers.
- LC Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (Finn U20). Strong offensive forward, strong skater.
- RC Nicholas Moldenhauer (USHL). Range of skills , a little shy offensively.
- LW Alexander Suzdalev (Swe U20). Outstanding stickhandler, can make plays.
- RD Maveric Lamoureux (QMJHL). He’s 6.07, tough, wingspan of a condor, raw.
- RW Cameron Lund (USHL). Big winger with plus skill.
- LW Viktor Neuchev (MHL). Fantastic shot.
- RC Pano Fimis (OHL). Responsible center with skill.
- LW Jeremy Wilmer (USHL). Pure skill, elusive with the puck on his stick.
- LD Graham Sward (WHL). Intelligent two-way defenseman.
- G Tyler Brennan (WHL). He’s a big goalie, inconsistent, great glove.
- LC Topi Rönni (Liiga). Good size and speed, solid offensively.
- LW Brandon Lisowsky (WHL). Undersized gol scorer. Good numbers.
- LC Markus Vidicek (QMJHL). Slick skills and good numbers.
- RC Ryan Francis (QMJHL). Unsigned by Flames. Skill, plug-and-play AHL.
- G Jan Spunar (Czech). Gigantic goalie with great numbers.
- LW Jordan Gustafsson (WHL). Speedy throwback forward.
- LC Matthew Ward (WHL). Magic on the power play
- LW Dylan James (USHL). Responsible two-way winger.
- LC Justin Cote (QMJHL). Under the radar, but he has skill. July 2004.
- RW Ben Hemmerling (WHL). Impressive playmaker under the radar.
- LC Fraser Minten (WHL). Two-way C with some skill.
- LD Artyom Duda (MHL). Puck mover is a great passer.
- RW Vinzenz Rohrer (OHL). Small F with great utility. Oilers might like him.
- LC Rieger Lorenz (AJHL). Big center with some passing skill.
- G Ivan Zhigalov (QMJHL). Hybrid goalie, has size, high risk/reward.
- LW Kirill Dolzhenkov (MHL). Massive winger can score.
- RW Matthew Seminoff (WHL). Skill winger with utility.
- LD Tomas Hamara (Liiga). Resposible defender.
- LW Matyas Sapovaliv (OHL). Scoring winger with great passing ability.
- RW Brayden Schuurman (WHL). Small winger, can score goals.
- LW Arvid Sundin (SHL). Underzied burner has breathtaking shifts.
- LW Antonin Verreault (QMJHL). Playmaking winger. Great passer.
- LW Quinn Finley (USHL). Speedy winger, skilled but small.
- LD Jake Furlong (QMJHL). Two-way defenseman who can make plays.
- LW Eric Alarie (WHL). Big skill winger.
- LD Samuel Mayer (OHL). Overage, brings solid play in all areas.
- LD Simon Forsmark (SHL). Responsible D with size.
- RC Matthew Poitras (OHL). Solid two-way pivot.
- RD Sam Rinzel (USHL). Big, strong, late breaker. Lots of buzz.
- RC Ryan Greene (USHL). Creative center, two-way type.
- LD Angus Booth (QMJHL). Defensive blue, makes smart plays.
- LW Zam Plante (USHS). Very small skill winger.
- LD Calle Odelius (Swe U20). Two-way defender.
- RW Jack Devine (NCAA). Elusive playmaking forward.
- LC Gustav Karlsson (Swe U20). Pure scorer.
- G Thomas Milic (WHL). Average size, great numbers at U18 WJC and WHL playoffs.
- LC Bryce Mcconnell-Barker (OHL). Lots of talent, numbers lagging.
- RD Alex Cotton (WHL). Another re-entry, offensive defenseman.
- RW Nikita Grebyonkin (MHL). Skill and size plus some speed.
- LW Alexaner Suvorov (KHL). Overager has skill but needs an extra gear.
- LW Josh Filmon (WHL). Tall, lean forward posted good numbers.
- RD Christian Kyrou (OHL). Impressive numbers, has a chance.
- RW Cruz Lucius (USHL). Skilled but not a big sample size.
- RW Patrick Guay, QMJHL. Quick accurate shooter.
- LW Nikita Buruyanov (MHL). Small skill winger.
- LD Tyson Jugnauth (BCHL). Speedy puck mover is great passer.
- LW Alex Bump (USHL). Scoring winger.
- G Sergei Ivanov (MHL). Undersized but quick and effective.
- LD David Gucciardi (NCAA). Two-way D, plus shot.
- LC Connor Hvidston (WHL). Youngest player in the draft and he can play.
- RD Jack Sparkes (OJHL). He’s a 6.08 defenseman. He’ll get drafted.
LOWETIDE 2021 MOCK DRAFT
- No. 29: RW Jagger Firkus, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). NHLE of 30.0, he’s an April 2004 and just 5.10, 151. I know they’ll take Reid Schaefer if he’s still on the board, but this is the winger the Oilers are looking for. Non-stop motor, terrific skill, great skills and he’s a scorer (36 goals in 66 games). I know he’s a right-wing and the Oilers have Kailer Yamamoto and Xavier Bourgault, but Firkus will be best available if he’s still on the board.
- No. 158: LD Filip Nordberg, Södertälje (Swe Jr). He’s 6.04, 207 and a March 2004, Red Line says he “is a great package of size, skill and physical attributes.” He scored 6-21-27 in 42 games, skates well. Raw and inconsistent, he has a range of skills.
- No. 190: RD Garrett Brown, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Two-way defender with good speed, he can pass the puck and defend well. Good position, he’s 6.02, 179 and scored 4-12-16 in 62 games.
- No. 222: RD Jack Sparkes, St. Michael’s (OJHL). Massive defenseman (6.08, 229) whose skating is solid. The idea of him is enough to get him drafted, after that it’s all about work and development. A raw player who could be a home run five years from now.
TRADING TYSON BARRIE
My initial thought on Barrie is that trading him for picks at the draft makes the most sense. If Ken Holland needs cap room, dealing Barrie to Seattle for a second and a fourth, while less than ideal, carves out $4.5 million and allows the team to sign Jack Campbell to play goal.
The second thought is ‘what happens if Duncan Keith retires?’ and the team is unable to sign Brett Kulak before free agency? It might leave the team vulnerable, as two veterans leaving at one time puts the team in a bit of a spot. Either way, it’s possible Barrie gets dealt in the next 30 hours.
POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER 2022-23
This is a possible roster for the Oilers entering the 2022-23 season. This team is in LTIR and I ran it up to the top (as close as possible) but there’s about $400,00 hanging out the back. I signed free agents Jack Campbell, Brett Kulak and Evander Kane. Rookies are Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov, Vincent Desharnais, Dylan Holloway. Trades are: Jesse Puljujarvi for Michael Rasmussen (a stunning loss in value), Tyson Barrie to Seattle for a second and a fourth, Warren Foegele for Emil Bemstrom. Mike Smith and Oscar Klefbom on LTIR.
Important to note, this isn’t my roster, not the way I would proceed, but I can see the next two weeks rolling out this way. Holland most always gets his free-agent targets (Kane, Campbell) and backfils as required (Bemstrom, Barrie exit). If Duncan Keith retires before free agency, all bets are off.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
10-2 today, we’re all over the draft. We’ll have Chris Johnston from TSN and a cast of hundreds as needed on a major day in hockey. Probably a trip to Calgary as the Flames appear to be reaching a franchise pressure point, and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I got my money on Campbell. 6 year, 6.25 per. Which I don’t likey but don’t have much of a choice
So that’s only two goalies worthwhile left. Kuemper and Campbell, with at least three teams bidding on them(Edm, NJ, Tor). Will be an interesting free agency that’s for sure
I didn’t like Kuemper this year, he played for the best team in hockey, he looked like an average goalie at best , with consistency problems.
I don’t think Toronto is bidding on them.
If husso gets almost 5. These guys will want 6 at least which they are not worth but we need a goaler
yeah if it’s getting up 6 for Campbell or Kuemper I would start looking into Gibson. I know he’s had three meh years but he’s always been overplayed and in front of a good team he was vezina calibre
Oh yeah and add Washington to that list of teams…
Heard Washington may be in the bidding also.
Ok so New Jersey just traded for Washington’s Vanecek. This is going to be wild
Wings acquired Husso for a 3rd round pick. Don’t even think it’s conditional.
Likely check him off the list and I’m very cool with that. We already have a player that was better than Husso prior to this season in Skinner.
Husso with a deal in place with the Wings already – must have been consent to talk before – hence the pick not being conditional.
And signing him for a rumored 3 year 4.75 per contract for a good half year. Yikes
Is there a photo of Schaefer with the Oilers’ scouting director?
If so, the caption ought to be “Reid and Wright”.
I’m guessing if Barrie gets traded that means Keith is coming back. Don’t see him getting traded if Keith retires
I’d move Barrie to bring in Chychrun.
Nurse-Ceci
Chychrun-Bouchard
Kulak-XXXX
That’s a solid D-core.
That IS an impressive 5 some
It’s prescient you haven’t included Broberg in that lineup because he’d probably have to be included in the deal.
Perhaps ARZ would want a forward instead (Holloway/Bourgault) if they are taking Barrie in the deal
And probably a pick, or two
Multiple reports that Arizona wants 4 assets for Chychrun.
If Barrie was included, I would guess you would also have to include the 2023 1st, Broberg and a forward prospect.
Yeah, Chychrun won’t come cheap
I’d keep Barrie, and try to backfill that LD position, with the intention that Broberg would grow into the 2LD spot behind Nurse
I still like Soucy as a target (veteran, short term contract), and acquire him prior to signing Kulak
Kulak can then decide on a 4 x $2.5M offer
Nurse – Ceci
Soucy $2.75 – Bouchard
Kulak $2.5 – Barrie
Broberg
Sail on Zack Kassian.
I’ve been hard in this player for quite a while. He is definitely a flawed player and has regressed with age and injury.
At the same time, while I question his commitment in certain “away from the puck” areas of the game, I do think it was mostly not learning the lessons as opposed to not willing.
This player gave it his all for the Oilers over the years, gave his heart and his blood and he had good moments and stretches.
Was signed when nuclear deterrents were still used. It’s amazing how much game changed in 2 years
I was clear in position at the time that it was a vast overpay. The BEST CASE scenario was that he’d live up to the contract if he scored 15-20 per year and could play up and down the lineup. There was zero chance that it would become a value contract, a small chance he could be value for it and a large chance he would underscore the cap hit – even in a rising cap world.
That was my opinion at the time.
It was similar to the big Rusty contract in that way. Rusty actually came damn close to providing full value for that deal over the first 2-3 years.
My recollection is that the majority was against this deal at the time it was signed. I think Holland did well to recognize the error, move on, and use the savings on players that contribute more value.
I think Russell’s contract, in retrospect, ended up being fine. Whether you like that style of player is another thing, but he played big minutes. Very different than the Kassian deal. Kassian was mostly a 4th liner over the duration of that deal, and that’s…not a great use of cap dollars.
‘You’ve been hard in this player for quite a while.’
Oh man, that is hilarious. Wins the Internet today. Thanks for the great laugh to start my day!
Okie – it seems someone has a personal issue or potential resentment. Won’t ruin my day – I just past from the Southern Hemisphere to the North – Kamala next.
Dude, if you can’t see the humour in that then you’ve got no sense of humour. I literally had to screenshot it to show my friends, it’s that classic. One of the funniest things I’ve read on this board in the 10+ years I’ve been coming here. ☺
Warning: public service comment……
OP, If you recall BoP’s resume (Author of a genre that would frequently use your literal words) you’d understand.
I see “personal” thrown out a lot in response to comments on this blog. How many of us have actually met each other? If BoP was an acquaintance the “personal” comment would perhaps apply. Otherwise it is impersonal…
Goilers!
Stay hard OP!!
🤣 🤣
Ya ya, I missed the typo. Im in rush hour traffic entering Kampala – hectic in an understatement. As you were.
Traffic is hard.
Reminds me of one of my daughter’s club soccer games a couple of months ago, a dad watching for the other team kept yelling “HARD ON IT! WHO WANTS IT?!?” and my wife and I were dying
It seems to me the team is better off if Keith returns. For me this is a better D group
Nurse Ceci
Kulak Bouch
Keith Bro
than
Nurse Ceci
kulak Bouch
Bro Barrie
Which are the most likely scenarios
The bottom scenario is definitely better if Bouchard isn’t signed this offseason
To expound upon what I referred to earlier… 🙂
Let’s start with the assumption that both Kassian and Mrazek are both dead cap… or far below replacement value.
Using Dom’s model, the Leafs traded down from 25 to 38.
He rates draft value by GSVA. The currency or GSVA itself really doesn’t matter too much because you can plug it back into the table and translate it back to the value of a draft pick.
25 – 3.4 GSVA
38 – 2.2 GSVA
So, Dubas dumps $3.8 m x 2 years for 1.2 GSVA which translates to pick 58, a late second rounder.
That is a tidy bit of business.
Kenny Holland traded Kassian’s $3.2m x 2 years for a trade down from 29 to 32, and a second and third round picks. The TLDR version is that Holland paid three picks factoring in the value of the trade down which includes the value of an extra fourth round pick.
A. trade down from 29 to 32. 3.0 GSVA to 2.7 for a loss of 0.3 GSVA.
That alone is worth pick 116 or a fourth rounder.
B. A second round pick. 33- 64. 2.6 to 1.1
C. A third rounder. 65-96. 1 to 0.5
Total would be 3.9 to 1.9 GSVA paid. That’s pick #21 on the high end and pick #43 on the low end.
Even on the low end, it’s 0.7 GSVA more than Dubas paid. That’s pick #78 or an extra third round pick for $0.6m less cap.
On the high end, it’s 2.7 GSVA more than Dubas paid which equates to pick 32.
Either way, if you have a model that you trust, with the Dubas trade you can calculate exactly what you paid. Holland can’t because we don’t know where the second and third round picks will be.
Another way to look at it, if you include the value of the trade down (a fourth rounder), Holland paid a second, third, and fourth round picks to rid himself of a Zack Kassian contract he should have never signed.
The counter argument is that Mrazek has more value because Chicago either got their starter to help them tank or if he starts the season playing well, they can flip him to a contender for an asset.
Very well summed up. I’m of the opinion that the goalie has more value.
If he turns his games around they can flip him for more value to a team that has goaltending issues.
If he’s no longer NHL caliber he helps them land a good crack Bedard.
That’s a win win.
Mrazk has more value I think — or at least has a far better chance of bouncing back to become a viable NHL goaltender.
Kassian won’t perform at the NHL level again.
Mrazek has more value than Kassian, I think you’ve nailed it. 4th liner vs guy who could be a competent backup at the minimum.
I know next to nothing about Reid Schaefer other than he looks like one of the kids from a Hollywood coming of age movie. These draft year second half explosion guys are an interesting study. He was basically a rookie in the WHL and for guys with those type humble beginnings you can sort of accept a lower ppg if the toolkit is there so I’m not overly concerned with him only hitting 0.88. Shot, hands, size can make for a useful player.
Pelletier seems to be pretty good at coaching up kids skating so here’s to hoping he can get him to a good enough level if that’s an issue, from clips it looks like the main problem is the first few steps and agility, same as it ever was with bigger guys.
Always appreciate your thoughtful analysis.
I think it’s fascinating that the Oilers have targeted guys who stocks have risen in the second half. Holloway, Bourgeault, now Schaefer. It has really paid off thus far. Will this pick be another?
Not a wild day. I was hoping for more. Hopefully there’s movement on Barrie, Keith, Smith, and RFAs.
Not sure if this has been posted or not somewhere in the previous 697 posts but Holland gets the 4th most votes for the Jim Gregory GM of the year award behind Sakic, Brisebois & Drury with Zito fifth and Guerin sixth.
*casually tosses full jerrycan on the fire as he saunters past…*
😉
Did I mention that Dubas came in 10th in the voting?
As someone on Twitter pointed out the voting took place after two rounds of the playoffs. The top four places were GM’s of the four teams left in the playoffs. Not overly scientific but good for Holland.
Has anyone seen Godot… and that box of Cristal I had hidden in the closet?
What I like about the Schaeffer pick (although painfully telegraphed by Stauffer for days now) is that:
1.As noted by Material Elvis below, he is not afraid to drive the net.
2.Has great size and strength.
3.Seems to have a great wrist shot.
4.Produced in the playoffs (21 pts in 26 games).
5.LT’s Math-based list has him in the range where he was picked, giving me more confidence he can actually score.
All in all, happy to have him as an Oiler.
6.4 over two years, yes?
all the upvote/downvote options greyed out for me. can’t seem to use.
am i…tier two LT fan?
You are currently at 1 upvote
No, not sure why that would be, Mushed.
Try turning it off and then back on again
The it crowd is always in fashion.
I don’t think you can vote for your own post (I’m not sure if that’s what you mean)
See if you can up/down vote this post
I was able to upvote your original post
Yep, yours works.
Hey thanks all am on a cycle tour through rockies so that one comment was during my five minutes of connectivity. currently on a half day off.
For whatever reason I could not upvote or downvote anything. Now that I have ‘tuned it on and turned it off again,’ works fine! 👍🏻
“…I know they’ll take Reid Schaefer if he’s still on the board…” — LT
Random quote from Bill Guerin earlier – Friedman asked about the MA Fleury signing earlier in the day:
“He and Cam Talbot are going to be a fantastic combo back there”
I had brought up Talbot as a target but it was predicated on Fleury signing a contract that started with a 6 or a 7 and creating cap pressure for the Wild
Guerin has a nice tandem signed for $7.1M all in
How Fleury went from not wanting to go, to staying…
Ex-player Guerin knows how to talk straight-up to the good guys.
Per Gregor:
Holland said his first priority with cap space he freed up from Kassian trade is to hopefully use it sign guys currently on team like Kane, Kulak, Yamamoto or Puljujarvi.
Mentioned he expect to get decision from Keith tomorrow if he will play or retire.
Did the Maple Leafs really “win” compared to Holland by trading away Mrazek?
The Maple Leafs have zero goalies now. Who here thinks anyone is going to do Dubas a favour by gifting him a goalie? He’s going to likely pay a heftier price for one now.
Kassian was a 4th liner who was becoming dead weight and is easily replaceable.
Is a starting goalie or even a backup as easily replaced when you are in win now mode in Toronto? Dubas could work some magic, or GMs or goalie agents are going to make him pay hard for a goalie.
The draft pick value chart that NT64 posted earlier shows that Kenny gave up 85 points in draft pick value, which would be worth a 42nd overall pick if the Oilers 2nd/3rd picks are 56th/88th overall in 2025/2024. This compares to 80 points given up by Dubas which equates to a 43rd overall approximately. Both Kenny and Dubas did well in these trades to free up cap space.
In looking at the trades in a vacuum, yes, they performed similarly, but Dubas has shown his hand and he is in a position of desperation now which puts him in a difficult position for getting a goalie. Holland can more easily walk away from today feeling good knowing team’s won’t have leverage over him needing to replace a 4th line winger.
I guess my point is, people seem to be focusing a bit too much on directly comparing draft picks given up for the cap space gained, but aren’t focusing on how Dubas will likely have to pay a higher premium to replace the player he gave away that plays arguably the most important position on a team.
Holland has more flexibility to use his cap space to attract talent to play on the final four Oilers.
Dubas now has to try not to sweat infront of other GMs or agents who know he desperately needs a goalie if he has any hopes of getting Toronto past the first round.
I think value was similar for both, but yes Leafs probably need a #2/3 goalie more than Oilers need a 4th line winger.
Wheeler (who loved Savoie pick BTW last year) had Schaefer at #83 woof. Didn’t realize he was almost old enough for last year’s draft. 🤔 Calls him “shiny new toy” and a riser but expects him as a role player at best. What do you want at #32 I guess.
Pronman. At #16 vs Wheeler having him at #83!! So either a home run or a bust. Is he Raffi Torres or Invisibister?
Wow huge ranking difference between them, and ironically LT coming in hot at ranking him #32. Maybe math = truth? 🤔
I’d take LT and Pronman over Wheeler on aggregate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTYZuqItdJc&t=101s
Schaefer
Nice shot, decent set of hands. What I like most is that all of his goals are the result of him driving to the net or slot area, which is very translatable to the NHL.
I like that with his shot, he is shooting from different spots on the ice. Compared to the goals he scored in the AJHL, where only one seemed like a shot with velocity it appears that he truly made incredible strides there.
This kid is truly dedicated. Imagine if he does the same with his skating….
And that’s apparently his summer plan. First three steps and lateral agility.
This kid interviewed so well too.
Yaremchuk says he asked Holland about a Keith update and a decision may come tomorrow.
Its official
Lowetide now the new analytics group for the oilers.
what?
We don’t have a pick till round 5!!
(unless Barrie)
I don’t love that Wright is in our division
With the Maple Leaves dumping Mrazek and Campbell’s contract being done, they have no goalers at all. Are they going to try to re-up Campbell now, or go after Kuemper?
Not that I give six shits what those snakes do, just wondering which price tag is going to be driven upward.
I’d be so pleased if they signed Kuemper. He’s the next Mrazek. 🥹
Apparently the market for Kassian was soft lol.
Move down three spots to get a big power forward winger in Schaefer and 3.2M in cap space, and it costs #29 pick, Kassian, a 2024 3rd rounder, and a 2025 2nd rounder. I don’t mind this at all. Solid, not spectacular work by Ken Holland and crew.
Yes nice to see a GM having to dump because of his own misguided contracts but you’ll excuse me, I have a date with Godot to dance the Lambada in memoriam of Zach Kassian.
Also re Schaefer – I don’t like peak early guys, I like guys growing late and spiking late.
The NHL is really the only pro sports league where one expects an impact from 18-20 year olds. Yes it happens in the NBA and soccer for sure but much more rarely
So Schaefer grows into his body and becomes Torres and not Invisibister. That’s the play here.
I think Dubas did well to recognize he made a mistake and dropped only 13 spots to fix it. I wish Holland had come to this conclusion earlier with Kassian, but I give them both credit for getting out of those contacts.
With Kassian being traded, any naked man seen dancing in the street could be godot
I would give Holland a C+/B- on day one. Got rid of a bad contract he signed. Drafted a player who does not score. But, on a positive note, he looks damn good compared to the Hawks GM.
I’m pretty hard on Holland but this was the right move to make. Of course signing that contract was ludicrous, but Ken can’t do anything about that now.
Agreed. We all make mistakes. He’s owning up to that poor signing and, imo, it was less costly than buying him out
I can’t get past “Drafted a player who does not score”…
Or… you could look at his other attributes.
Glass half full.
Are you sure about the not scoring part?
Pronman really likes the pick for the Oilers. Read his analysis at the Athletic. Shedding kassians contract with no retention and picking up a player rising up this season is a solid days work for Holland.
And honestly not moving Jesse first day makes me hope the move will be for a player and not picks.
It seems a fine draft pick.
Holland should not be getting any credit for dumping his Kassian contract at great cost. Everyone in the world knew that was a terrible contract the moment it was signed… except Ken Holland. It took him 2 years to come to that conclusion.
Holland on now, Youtube
RS referenced here. interesting, recent and not behind the paywall today .88 ppg
https://theathletic.com/3383157/2022/06/25/edmonton-oilers-nhl-draft-2022-agitator/
tan has this with button rank 20.
https://www.tsn.ca/reid-schaefer-mauled-by-nhl-interviews-after-strong-season-in-seattle-1.1817193
19 of his 32 goals came since January
That toe drag, no-look pass on the TSN page. Very nice. That’s not a play every kid can make with aplomb. That’s first round quality. He’s known more for his goal-scoring so that was surprising good. Thanks, Supernintendant!
Nice piece of business by Holland getting rid of that Kassian contract. I like that move.
Last few 32nd overalls:
Nolan Allan, Chi
William Wallander, Det
Shane Pinto, Ott
Mattias Samuelsson, Buf
Connor Timmins, Col
Tyler Benson, Edm
Judging by when Kassian trade was made I wonder who the Oilers had their eyes on that fell off the board before pulling the trigger
guessing Snuggerud
Or the Coyotes wanted to make sure they’re man was there
Reid Schaefer never seems to play a full season. Does he have a history of injuries?
He has a history of not scoring.
Moroz 2.0
woah, low blow.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=226598
pretty typical mid-upper-grade prospect trajectory. the #’s he put up this year as a 17 year old are impressive. Last year was Covid-squeezed in Jr A. Pronman’s a fan and he watches a lot more than us
Reid Schaefer is not a great skater, if he can get better he’ll be a good pick at #32
I was hoping for Kulich
Moroz scored 16G in 66GP his draft year.
Schaeffer scored 32G in 66GP.
If you want to argue birthdate, Moroz’s next season was 13G in 69GP.
I hope I’m wrong. Hate seeing us pick prospects whose skating is a red flag. First time the new regime has done this.
He certainly popped this last season.
Wouldn’t that just be covid cutting seasons down?
Last season he was at the bottom of the depth chart, and only missed 5 games and this season he played 66/68, only 2 others played more and only 7 on the roster played 60 or more games. He also played all 25 playoff games. I see no red flags there.
He was 2nd in regular season goal scoring on the team and 3 in playoff points. I read one prospect expert I had read called his wrist shot the best in this draft. I see no issues with this pick.
I like the Kassian trade much more than a buyout and that appears to have been our two Options
Was not signing fringe players to boat anchor contracts an option at any point?
Holland getting praise for trading away draft picks to get rid of a contract that he crafted is making me sick.
What would a good GM have done?
They sure like these early birthday guys
Well I like our pick more than Calgarys and Vegas
In the immortal words of Ed McMahon Hiyooooo!
Well played Sir, well played.
Yes, well played.
Also like them more than the picks by Toronto, Florida, Colorado, Minnesota. NYR, Boston, NYI, Ottawa…
I thought trading down again was the play but I’ll take that
A big LW in Schaefer and $3.2M in cap space is a nice days work
Why does the Kass deal have to be compared to the Mrazek deal and why can’t fans just talk about what Holland did. Used future draft picks to move Kassian for cap space – exactly what most wanted him to do.
So many posts about using the 1st to get rid of Kass or for immediate help and Holland essentially kept the first (29th to 32 is inconsequential in this draft) and paid a 2nd and 3rd in future years to get rid of Kass.
A 2nd and 3rd in future years – neither more likely than not to be NHL players ever and almost assuredly not in the next 3-4 years.
Geez.
It’s a good day OP
I have to agree. Both GMs signed dogshit contracts and were forced to make dogshit trades to get rid of the contracts (not the first time for either gm). Let’s not pretend Dubas is rain man.
Hello Zack Hyman. Dubas was Dumass on that one
But but but the 2nd round pick in 2025 could be the missing piece in our 2030 cup run
Sigh, the ‘Kenny’s an over-the-hill, easily-fleeced, lazy GM who’s getting fed his lunch by whippersnappers in fancy spectacles’ meme dies hard
Well said.
The savings from Kassian’s contract and term will likely help the team to get their much needed goalie. Schaeffer is a solid pick.
i guess we’re supposed to do cartwheels cos the GM had to spend draft capital to dump a poor contract he negotiated?
No but he’s one Keith retirement away from having $21 million in walking around money.
And that’s without having to trade Barrie or Foegele.
Noone said that but this is EXACTLY what much of the fanbase wanted Holland to do. This was the price, its expensive but not that expensive.
Holland does what fans want and what “needs to be done” and the same fans bitch.
Kass had extreme negative value. He is expensive and a net negative player many games. He’s old. He’s regressing. He’s always injured. His expensive contract is for multiple years.
Yes, Holland made a mistake when signing and I was VERY much against it on the day the contract was signed but, that’s a non-factor when analyzing this particular transaction.
You know, since I posted the most critical thing about this…
One more time: I’ll take it, GIVEN THE SITUATION.
It’s actually possible to be both fine with this trade in the here and now and bitter about why it was necessary.
My post was not about being bitter about the situation, it was about much criticism on the trade itself.
I can’t actually find much of any criticism of the trade itself in this comments section.
Almost everyone seems happy with it. I’m basically happy with it, given what needed to be done. But man, those picks are going to sting down the road. I hope what’s done with the cap space this year and next is worth it. It might be, I dunno.
I was not speaking just to this comments section.
its going to be a long road for the 2025 3rd rounder to sting.
It’s a 2025 second rounder. The third rounder is 2024.
And it’s not just the potential drafted players.
These picks are ammunition. As tradeable assets, they could have mattered in the Oilers lineup long before they are actually made and the drafted players are developed.
They are trade deadline etc. ammunition that now no longer exists. Analyses of how likely they are to turn out to result in NHL players and such…that matters. But they also matter as tradeable assets, and they matter a lot closer in time.
I would posit that $3.2M in cap space (X2) is ammunition and bullets needed more urgently.
And I certainly hope you are correct, as I’m pretty sure I’ve made clear.
We’ll see how the money is spent. I hope it works. I hope it isn’t just the Brent Kulak money.
I want the Edmonton Oilers to succeed and have been a bascially obsessive fan since they entered the NHL in 1979.
I’m more or less on board with Ken Holland. Certainly a whole lot better than the last guy.
But we are now in a situation where three 2nds have been pissed away on 13 games of Andreas Anthanasiou and (partially) correcting the WTF Kassian contract. Yes, there were strange covid-induced circumstances with the Athanasiou thing, and I totally agree with the decision to not qualify him.
But….
When the transaction is made specifically to fix a mistake, the mistake itself is not a ‘nonfactor.’
Save the lawyerspeak for the day job. Holland doesn’t need you getting him off on a technicality. We can see this move for what it is without your damage control.
Ya but this move isnt the one that’s upsetting. It was the other one. If this move ticks you off, does that mean you’d rather keep kass?
If you want kass gone, then this move should be pleasing to you. Doesnt mean you have to like holland.
I don’t see why the moves have to be disconnected or appraised in isolation. We’re smart enough people to connect the dots and the only motivation for doing this is to help gloss over the original screwup.
In a performance review, you don’t praise employees for all the time they devoted to fixing self-inflicted mistakes. It’s 100% fair to say Holland did ok cleaning up the mess AND it would’ve been better if he hadn’t made it in the first place.
Why are we supposed to praise Holland for this? Do we praise Dubas for wasting 1sts to dump the Marleau and Mrazek contracts?
This is management apologists wanting fans to get onboard with their spin. I’m not interested in the propaganda thanks.
Eff off with your “lawyer speak” and stick to the topic and don’t debate the poster.
My post, which led this thread, had nothing to do with why this move was necessary – it was specifically in relation to negativity and criticism regarding this morning’s trade in isolation.
Feel free to go back and read the post.
“Eff off.” lol
Well I guess we know your weakness now.
Temper temper ginger.
The initial signing was bad, this trade was good.
When analyzing the merits of this deal, the initial signing is irrelevant. When analyzing Holland’s tenure, they both are.
Yes. I like this trade.
#32 on LTs list goes at 32
well
Stop the presses!!!!!!
Lt, with pick 32, got his guy!
Schaefer it is
Schaefer and Cap Space.
A good day for a Semifinalist.
Okay, big local boy
We will see who Oilers like best
Firkus,
Reid Schaefer
Beck
Chesley
Warren
Whoever Tampa Bay picks…that’s who I want.
Lots of analytics charts, but let’s use a chart based on actual pick swaps.
https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/
Best case is we traded away future 64 and 96, but let’s use 8th best finish. So 56 and 88.
Chart adds up to Dubas giving up 80 pts and Holland 88. The difference is 8 pts or a 113th pick. in range for Mrazek vs Kassian.
Well done N64.
Great analysis … thanks for this.
~ I’m no Speeds but think this adds up to a good day, OP. ~
Even without the comparison with the Mrazek deal, it’s a good deal. In fact, both deals are essentially dumping cap for an early to mid second round pick (roughly between picks 41 to 43).
Edmonton has to be happy with that. Buyout was a bad option.
Not sure why this deserves a downvote. I essentially agree with the post.
Forgot to say, Great find and work N64.