It happens every year, and it’s already underway. This blog is devoted to finding balance, finding reasonable, entering into weeks like this one with expectations that reflect reality. I spend time on this, although it’s clear the horses are already out of the barn.
We can have balanced views, you know. Last year, the really harmful trade was the Duncan Keith deal. However, people were so enraged by smaller things normal conversation gave way to outrage. A week before the Keith trade, I estimated “fair” as being Caleb Jones for Duncan Keith and a first round selection. By the time the Keith trade arrived, the avalanche of rage was so severe nuance and a reasoned mind were gone. The Oilers are going to make moves you don’t like this summer. Hold back your water for the devastating stuff, you’re going to need it.
Currently, people are talking about trading Zack Kassian (but no sweetener!) for something of value. Meanwhile the Columbus Blue Jackets just traded a fourth-round pick for Mathieu Olivier. Is he Kassian? No. He’ll make $750,000 next season. Kassian remains in Edmonton. This was predictable. If you’re mad Kassian remains an Oiler, then maybe the market is telling you something.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers look to RFA’s to find solutions?
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: The 2022 NHL draft has a chance to be unique in Edmonton Oilers history.
- DNB: Tyler Wright Q&A
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Is this Oilers’ year to find a world-class agitator in NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- DNB: Which Oilers are most likely to return next season? Who goes?
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
HOLLAND’S LIST
- No. 1 goaltender. Jack Campbell.
- Power winger. Evander Kane
- Defensive depth. Brett Kulak.
- Roster replacements for exiting players.
I have an article up at The Athletic today offering three options for the Oilers this summer. I think the Kane option wins the day, but the other two have appeal. I do wonder if the Duncan Keith/Mike Smith news brings a surprise. Right now, the smart money is on Smith LTIR and Keith returning. A retiring Keith would be an explosive piece of news.
ASSETS
- Tyson Barrie
- Jesse Puljujarvi or Kailer Yamamoto
- 2022 first-round pick
- 2023 first-round pick
- Warren Foegele
- Dmitri Samorukov
- Zack Kassian
Personally, I don’t think all of these names/assets move the needle. Barrie and the NHL wingers, plus the two first rounders have legit return and there’s no denying it. Edmonton can get value in trade for them. Foegele is a player who teams will trade for, but it’s likely the return is a player in the same cap range. Better to wait a year, I expect, see what he can do in year two with the team. Samorukov would have solid value for a team like the Kraken, and Kassian is tradeable but would need a sweetener in my opinion. I’m a Kassian fan, but his contract and injury worries tip the balance here.
REALITY
The people who follow the Oilers and type things on the internet have been arguing over Jesse Puljujarvi for months. The numbers tell us he is a productive player even scoring 15 goals in a season. It also tells us he floats all boats when he’s on the ice. That sounds contrary, but it’s true.
There’s a place near the area I grew up in (around Haney, BC) where a stream runs uphill on the side of a mountain. My Dad used to drive me there when I was a kid, and I’d be amazed every time. My understanding is that kind of phenomenon is unusual and quickly reverts (downstream) to a more normal trajectory. This is the most likely outcome for Puljujarvi. He will score more goals with the chances he creates over the next five seasons.
On the other hand, management may send him away in exchange for a more productive player, and maybe they find a better fit on McDavid’s right wing. The odds do not favour this, and we should acknowledge how ill-advised this move is this summer. If the Oilers trade Puljujarvi for Julien Gauthier, no matter how many transactions occurred before the deal, I hope you have enough gas in the tank for that story to make it a cruel summer online. The Keith trade didn’t get close to having the impact it should have at the time.
ANALYTICS
It sounds like the Oilers are serious about the analytics side of the game, and Brad Holland will be a big part of it (Kurt Leavins has been all over this story). For me, there are two things to note. First, if the club does hire analytics people, it’s important to know their names. Are the Puck IQ folks involved? Did they steal Tyler Dellow back from New Jersey? Is Michael Parkatti one of the names? Did Darcy McLeod decide to take a massive cut in pay and take a job with the Oilers? I have no idea where they are fishing, and I know lots of these people so me not knowing might be a tell about what the team is contemplating. Edmonton has to get this right, the organization is behind but it’s not fatal. Yet. Hire one of the names above, or the guy who wrote this. I’ve been on this train for a long time now, and promise to give this organization its due if they get it right. Please get it right. I’m begging you.
Now, for the rest of us, the outsiders, what can we expect? First, I think it’s fair to admit the shopping was smarter a year ago. Zach Hyman, Cody Ceci and Evander Kane, but also Derek Ryan and re-signing Nuge, Tyson Barrie and Mike Smith. I know that last one won’t go by without a retort from you, but when healthy Smith was quality. He can’t be counted on because he’s 40, but as an Oilers goalie a healthy Smith did good things. I also think we should admit that the amateur scouting and new coaching staff appear to be plugged in to some sort of analytics. It doesn’t mean things can’t improve, but they’re on their way.
The nut? Pro scouting and procurement at that level. We’ll know the Oilers under Brad Holland have all eight cylinders pumping in time when the team signs or trades for a Zach Hyman with a $3 million cap hit. Or when someone saves this team from trading Jesse Puljujarvi for not enough by plenty. That’s the test. Call it Good Will Bunting.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We have a big day planned, TSN1260, 10-2 today. Darren Dreger will pop in with the latest Oilers and NHL news, and we’ll spend plenty of time on the Elks, Jays and NBA free agency. Draft talk, 1972 Canada-Russia series, it’ll be a blast 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I meant future draft picks starting now. What we have in the system now is our last chance at a few ELC on his current contract. I would sell whatever picks from now until that contract is up that makes us better now.
I think if the team operates at all like he will re-sign it is a mistake.
This is likely true but not necessarily true. Bourgault may make an impact on draft plus 2 and Holloway may have if not for injury.
In any event, it would be shocking if McDavid didn’t resign when the time comes.
I sure hope he doesn’t “resign”.
Ha – I’m in Uganda, give me a break…..
At this stage of McDavids contract, no one we draft anymore will be available as a cheap ELC option before he hits UFA. Im ok trading what ever amount of futures it takes in draft picks to secure more cap space and improve the roster.
Kane’s contract being re-instated in full and then the Sharks trading the player to the Oilers would be a decent outcome. This presumes the Oilers don’t give up value for the trade given Kane would have his 3 team no trade list and, of course, a large desire of the Sharks to move the deal.
Kassian would need to go back and some retention if there was to be any positive asset going back to the Sharks.
I would like to add James Reimer to that deal.
An issue is, that outcome would be well after free agency starts unless the Sharks and Oilers agree to a trade and the Sharks drop their grievance so the initial contract comes back – if the league would allow that. It would be akin to a team terminating a deal for a year and then going back and saying “just kidding”.
Lots of good info here from Gregor on Jesse, Keith, Kulak, etc., inlacing that Holland does believe Covid then being injured was a factor in Jesse’s season decline.
https://oilersnation.com/2022/07/04/monday-musings-dustin-schwartz-returns-trades-nhl-entry-draft-and-more/
Whelp, just spent an hour “thumbing” a post regarding Tristan Luneau. I hit the screen accidentally somehow and it is completely gone just before I hit send. Doing this all on an iPhone like a dummy….. lots of numbers were in there, but I don’t have the patience to re-enter it all.
Anyhoo, I am taking back my previous comments after doing a season split comparison. To be fair he was recovering from an off-season non-injury knee surgery and he went from 5G & 11A in the first 32 GP to 7G & 20A in the 2nd 31 GP. FWIW, of his 12G & 31A, he had 3PPG, 17PPA, 1SHG & 1SHA.
Warren & Lamoureux were fairly similar when comparing their results in the 1st & 2nd halves, although ML had slightly better production (4 more assists) and 15 more shots in the 2nd half, while Warren had 1 less goal and 1 more shot.
Cheers!
Second poll.
Has the functioning and workings of this website improved or worsened since Ryan appointed himself the webmaster?
Who?
I kid.
Improved. Bigly.
Improved. Mightily.
You made the second poll just to get a bunch of green thumbs, didn’t you?
Jokes aside, you are a hero. The blog has been butter smooth for months now and I am not just talking about LT’s prose.
Thank you, Ryan and LT. great job
Ryan,
You ROCK!
That is all.
And sincerely thank you for all that you do!
^ ^
This.
No down votes. That’s impressive
Poll
Okay. Are the thumbs up and down, divided counts an upgrade on the amalgamated +/- system previously?
Vote thumbs up for yes and down for no,
Like I’ve spouted off before, I think voting like figure skating judges on posts might be a barrier to entry for new people and generally makes things harsher than they need to be. I accept that’s a minority position and LT likes it because it means he has to spend less of his life playing hall monitor (that’s my understanding from what he’s written, don’t want to put words in his mouth). So I voted thumbs up.
Counterpoint – it is highly amusing!
So this Brad Holland is in fact Ken’s son? I found a journal article that alluded this without stating outright. And he’s newly elevated?
And people thought I was joking when I predicted Katz’s son would be the next GM of the Oilers.
Yes, he is Ken Holland’s son, however he does come with an interesting/bonafide resume and is on the radar of other NHL Teams.
Sleeper pick in the 5th round
Dmitri Buchelnikov
Pierre LeBrun reporting that the Oilers may have interest in 34 yr old Claude Giroux.
Ken Holland, you Kane not let this happen!
Please Evander …save us!
Giroux >>> Kane
Having said that, Claude Giroux at the right price and term could be a good plan B.
What’s the right price and term for Claude Giroux?
OP?
Anyone?
Giroux fits with the verbal out there that some very good UFA’s are suddenly interested in Edmonton after seeing what they did in the playoffs this year.
If he comes in at $1,000,000 x 2, I will not complain. Definitely a bonafide top 6 player, certainly a far superior bet than Kyle Turris was.
@KevinWeekes
I’m told the @EdmontonOilers
are actively shopping F Jesse Puljujarvi, and there’s some interest from clubs in market for his services. Curious to see if there’s a match for potential deal between now and next week’s Entry Draft.
@jimmathesonnhl
·
4m
Seldom have I seen people so anguished that a player who had 36 pts could be traded. This from team that dealt Gretzky, Messier, Coffey, Lowe and if 90s Bill Guerin out of blue
I know you’re trolling, but I’ll bite.
There’s a long history of JP type players the Oilers have dealt for peanuts that have gone on to have solid careers elsewhere. Off the top of my head, Cogliano, Erik Cole, Hall (different level of player mind you), Strome, Eberle, Petry, Schultz etc.
I don’t think anybody is too worried about losing JP, they’re more worried about getting a box of donuts and a cold double double for him, and watching him spend 10 years as a quality middle 6 player.
If the Gretzky sale happened in 2022 with social media and was precipitated by months of soundbites like we’ve had the vitriol about it would have been catastrophic
NHL Watcher
@NHL_Watcher
· 4h
Kypreos on Kadri: “The number I hear is it starts at 8 and it could go as high as $10M, the teams that I’m hearing out there, two teams that can stroke that cheque right now are Seattle and the Boston Bruins”.
I’m sure that team won’t regret that contract very quickly. Nope not at all
This seems tailor made for Philly. What could go wrong with overpaying a 32 year old coming off of a career year
“…people are talking about trading Zack Kassian (but no sweetener!) for something of value.”
I haven’t seen anybody recently who is this wildly optimistic. Personally, I (and I’m sure many other Oiler fans) would be ok with a Kassian disposal as long as it doesn’t involve a buyout or a sweetener that includes something like a Bourgault/Holloway/first round pick. Even a trade with significant retained salary is preferable to a buyout in the long run.
Former Oiler Mike Grier reportedly to be named the first Black Gneral Manager in the NHL tomorrow.
In San Jose.
That would be outstanding. One of the toughest to ever play the game.
Outstanding for many reasons.
HH do you know more about Grier’s qualifications? I see he has been an assistant NHL coach and an advisor to the Rangers for 1 year. I don’t see any formal education?
His qualifications are that he used to play in the NHL. This is SOP for NHL teams.
E.g. Joe Sakic.
And 4 years as a professional scout for Chicago, 2 years as an assistant coach with the Devils and this past season hockey operations advisor for the Rangers being in on hockey related decisions and running their development program. I don’t know if he graduated, but he also spent 3 years at Boston University, so he is college educated.
I wasn’t aware until just now that his brother is the GM of the Miami Dolphins.
That makes 2 Ex-Oilers as G.M’s Grier and Guerin both tough hombre’s. Its too bad we don’t have a Ex-Oiler as well to make trades with.
Kevin Lowe is still behind the curtain.
“1st pick last out” The way it should be.
Rosey Grier is Mikes uncle.
And Mike’s nickname 😊
Yes! Rosie pop your shoulder in by yourself or the trainer and only miss 2 shifts.
Please Mr. Holland, make a trade so I have something to think about at work tomorrow!
Gravity hills like the Maple Ridge (Haney) one are great magic tricks where uphill looks down hill and vice versa.
https://www.mapleridgenews.com/community/maple-ridge-magnetic-hill-defies-the-law-of-newton/
Mike Smith on LTIR gives the Oilers the option to bring him back in January if the guy they bring in or Skinner flops.
Yep – that’s why I like the idea of the Oilers going after a young goalie like Blackwood, Georgiev or Samsonov instead an older UFA. Let the new hire and Skinner split the crease for the first 2/3 of the season … if one or both hasn’t established themselves as the number, then you have old man Mike Smith ready to return in time for the playoffs. Reminds of how the Undertaker late in his career used to come back to headline Wrestlemania.
Some might prefer going after the sure thing in Campbell. I admit that I would be more comfortable going into next season with him – while’s he’s poor on high danger shots, he is very good stopping the pucks that should not go in … which has been a major problem over the past few years. He won’t steal a playoff series, but he won’t be the reason the Oilers lose either.
But I wonder if we shouldn’t be looking for the next Campbell – former 1st and 2nd round goalies, who have taken a long time to develop, and their original team is ready to move on.
More riskier, but less cap hit.
I’m starting to come around to the idea of signing Eric Comrie.
He’s been solid to very good in the AHL from age 21-25. From age 22-25 he bounced around on waivers between Detroit, New Jersey and Winnipeg, having a few cups of coffee in the NHL. Last season the Jets gave him an extended run at backup behind Hellebuyck … he had a 0.920 GAA in 19 games last season in the NHL. 26 years old, from Edmonton, son of Bill Comrie and half-brother to Mike. Made $750K last season. Doesn’t cost any assets or require any cap dumps.
Sign him for 2 years at a team friendly cap hit ~ 1.5 million, with the promise that he’ll split games with Skinner.
And if it all goes to hell, then make sure Smith is ready to come back in 2023 as an insurance policy.
What is the best case scenario re Oilers cap space?
Trade Foegele for nothing.
Trade Barrie for a mid round pick.
Trade Kassian + a 2nd for nothing.
Keith retires.
~16 million in cap space.
Barrie can get a real player with value – much more than a mid-round pick.
A 2nd is not enough to get rid of Kass’ 2 X $3.2MM for a replacement level (at best) aging player with mounting injuries.
There’s a chance but I’d remain surprised if Keith retired. If he does, well, he played legit 2nd pairing minutes and PK in both the regular and post-seasons – that’s not cheap to find (and, no, Kulak has never been a 2nd pairing guy and it would be best if he was 3rd pairing and moved up for injury cover).
“What is the best case scenario re Oilers cap space?”
Kulak can skate and is entering his prime years! He is at the point in his career where given the choice between him and Keith it’s a no brainer and Kulak is the better player!
Maybe another year older for Keith this coming season, Manson and Woodcroft will see things differently but when given the choice in the playoffs, Manson and Woodcroft chose Keith more often than Kulak by an extra 1 1/2 minutes 5 on 5. Keith and Manson were paired together on the PK, so no choice to be made there, while Keith was a staple on the 2nd power play. In total, they chose to play Keith 3 more minutes per game.
When choosing to put players out against the opposition, Keith played at least 20% more than Kulak against MacKinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog from Colorado and against Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Lindholm on Calgary. While Nurse / Ceci did more of the heavy lifting, Keith and his rookie partner were given more tough assignments than Kulak / Barrie. I like both Kulak and Barrie but the 2022 evidence from the people’s whose job it is to make these decisions chose Keith (just like Chicago still had Keith as their number 1 left D last season). You might disagree with their assessment, but to call it a no brainer would be to insult Manson and Woodcroft.
My opinion was value based on age and cap moving forward not on Keith’s useage last year. Assuming they are both with the team this coming season it is my opinion that usage will switch. The fact The coaching went with the more experienced D makes sense but which player will be the better D moving forward is in my opinion still a no brainer! Time waits for no man. Wine and whiskey get better with age, athletes not so much!
Last year we had Nurse/Keith/Kulak/Broberg – if you simply remove Keith and slide Kulak up and then Broberg up, its a net loss to the group, in particular when injuries to the left side start to happen.
Of course, there is $5.5MM of cap to work with but, at least part of it, would need to go to the left side.
Its tough to say with authority that Kulak is the “better player” as he hasn’t had to do the job Keith was tasked with last year for more than a game here or there (2nd pairing minutes and QoC).
That’s plenty of space to weaponize!!
Not according to the site’s self proclaimed guru HH!😉
There is room to do better in my opinion but as a fan it is subject to not knowing what is actually out there!
Evander is exactly what we have been missing since maroon with McD…and then some…If you look at what players are getting right now for 20-30 goal seasons Kane is a bargain @ 5.5-6 for five years…he also brings the attitude and nasty we have been missing since Kassian disappeared…as much as it pains me I believe Kane might be more critical to our success than an elite goaltender…the playoffs are fresh enough in our minds and what we were able to accomplish was beyond most of our expectations (cowtown in five!)…sign Kane and work the goalie angle the best you can…
Thank You! Kane was the primary missing element to team success! Huge loss if he signs elsewhere!
Apparently the Oilers have been considering Giroux as an option, per Lebrun. On ON, Shannon doesn’t believe Claude would be willing to take the cap hit that signing here would infer.
Bob adds an after-thought he has hit on a few times recently: “I think the Oilers will end up with more cap space they many believe they potentially have available.”
Meh. If the Oil are going to sign an ageing big-time forward in free agency I would rather they stick with what works, i.e., Kane.
Giroux has very good numbers, is a RH shot, is a stone cold killer on the FO dot and has a great one-timer on the PP. He also hates to lose.
People are acting like he’s 40…he’s 34.
If he wants a ring and is willing to work with them to get something done – all day.
That’s fair. Also, Giroux would likely be a much cheaper option than Kane.
Most cases you get what you pay for! To me Kane is a proven asset and fills a need. No disrespect to Giroux!
Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
For those asking, still no date set yet for Evander Kane’s second grievance hearing with the Sharks. Doubtful it will be heard before free agency opens July 13. So not ideal for anyone involved. Unless both sides decide to explore a settlement.
The JP situation has a bit of an Andrew Cogliano feel to me.
Cogliano averaged 36 points a year for four years. There was a mismatch in salary expectations between the team and the player, and (IIRC) over whether he was truly a center.
He was traded for a second-rounder and signed to a deal that I thought was an overpay (3.75% of the cap, or $3M/yr today).
JP might have more upside than Cogliano had at the time, but Cogliano also had a more proven track record.
I was disappointed with the second-rounder return for Cogliano, and I’ll be disappointed with a second-rounder for Puljujarvi. But history suggests that it may be the market price.
At the time, I hoped the Oilers would trade Gagner rather than cogliano. Didn’t think Gagner would be able to do what was expected of him. Actually, I didn’t think cogliano could do what was expected if him either, at least offensively.
However, cogliano had the speed to always be a useful NHL player. Players you need even in depth roles on those cup teams.
Anyway. Glad he got a cup.
I worry we will do the same here with Pulijarvii. Difference is that JP may not want that depth role or, at least not in Edmonton.
I’m not sure where the cap comes from but, per Friedman and LeBrun, the Oilers are discussing perusing Claude Giroux.
Obviously this would be at a massive discount to his previous AAV…..
I can’t see it happening. The west is a grind and he’s no spring chicken.
It’s nice that he’s a righty and can play centre though.
Stauffer surmising that giving term to Kane would incentivize his camp to drop the grievance.
Holland should be on the phone to San Jose to make a side deal to take Kassian and Foegele for Reimer and a 7th to get San Jose to relieve them of any monetary obligations to Kane.
i.e. We’ll offer a great deal for Kane and get him to drop his grievance if you take Kassian and Foegele, and give us Reimer and a 7th.
Probably Puljujarvi instead of Foegele.
Did Bettman delay the arbitration to try to force a settlement, rather than risk an arbitration decision that would potentially be embarrassing and set a precedent?
On further thought, two contracts would probably be more than San Jose might take.
Maybe just Kassian for Reimer would be about the level of side deal that San Jose would be willing to do.
The NHL does not control the arbitration date.
Bettman perhaps paid for the arbitrator’s vacation.
I guess when facts don’t support your theory, just invent conspiracies, since they can’t be logically refuted.
I suppose you believe that Makar was not offside.
Not sure how that makes any sense. The Sharks and Kane are likely to settle, and the Sharks will take the cap hit of the settlement when that happens. There is zero reason for the Oilers or Kane to hep the Sharks out by signing a deal.
It’s probably more nuanced than that, because there are 4 interested parties … (1) Kane and his agent, who are seeking to maximize his earnings; their best outcome, is that he recoups some of the money from last year’s voided contract, then gets set free as a UFA, (2) the Sharks, who would probably prefer the same outcome at this point,(3) the NHL, who would also like the same …. and (4) the NHLPA, who would probably like to see Kane’s original contract be reinstated … what happened to Kane was not something that they would want repeated to any other player … their best outcome is full re-instatement of the original contract + some sort of monetary penalty to the Sharks for wrongful termination of the contract that maybe gets used to pay down escrow.
If I’m not mistaken, the NHLPA filed the grievance together with Kane and his representatives, leading to third party arbitration. How much influence the NHLPA may be exerting on the proceedings is unknown.
As of 2 weeks ago, per Friedman, there had been no real settlement talks as both sides think they have a strong case.
that would have changed.
— what would be the cap implications if Keith did retire but then got the itch and came back after a year away?
There would be no penalty or other cap hit, if that’s what you are asking – his contract term would run out and he could return again in a year as a UFA.
He would have to be officially re-instated – if he decided to “un-retire” during the former term of his contract, it would require the approval of all 32 teams.
The question Kinger was asking was what would happen if he came back after the term of his current contract.
I’m expecting disappointment with Puljujarvi.
Kassian, I can’t stomach another buyout. I catastrophize that it results in us being short to sign Bouchard and we get a Nurse type situation. Kassian I would try to send away with $1M retained and maybe a 2023 2nd. Expensive! But it seems like cap dumps are almost as rare as offer sheets. If we can’t make this deal, wait for next year with Kass.
If Keith was to retire,
Would Barrie and Jesse P plus the first get us Chychrun?
I like the idea of this trade a lot.
Nope….
I was thinking it may be too generous. Barrie is right side but still a good d man coming back, plus they pick up a young winger and a first?
If we could add significant talent to our top 4 that will improve Stanley chances.
We have lots of options for third pairings.
Not sure they’d need Barrie if they’re tanking. Maybe JP, 2 firsts and the Kassian contract.
Pondering the 50 man yesterday and now more shared thoughts on the assessment of the roster today. Great questions.
If the Oilers truly have half of a Stanley team right now, can they get over the hump?
Hyman – McDavid –
Nuge – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
______ – McLeod – Puljujarvi
Foegele – ______ – _______
Nurse – Bouchard
______- Ceci
Goalie – none
How do they go from 11 players to 23 Stanley Cup contributors?
1 Internal Development
Skinner – unproven
Holoway – unproven
Broberg – small sample
2 Free agents
Kane – proven
Kulak – proven
Goalie – ?
3 Possible contributors:
Ryan – punches above his weight but I think nope
Barrie – I think there is a Stanley player here
Kassian – nope
Shore – nope
Keith – Stanley player at third pair?
4 Finding value replacements
And thus I see LT’s assessment. A lot of things need to go right just to find 3 free agent additions, three rookies to succeed, plus 2 more players bringing us to a 19 player roster.
Thus our pro scouting has to turn up at least 4 inexpensive roster contributors. Real NHL contributors that could hold a spot on a Stanley Cup contender. Tough. These will need to contribute, not sit on the bench.
LT has taught use to try to read the tea leaves.
Foggy was supposed to be a guy built for the playoffs and specifically traded for because he crashes the net. Yet even with injuries to other players to the point that Brad Malone played two games for us, Foggy was HS’ed three times.
Add to that, he had one assist in 13 games.
I’ll be surprised if he’s back.
Foegele seemed snakebit all year. He seemed to lose confidence as the year went on. His body language after missing a wide open net or hitting a post was telling. I think all he needs is a fresh year, sometimes when a player is traded it takes them time to settle in. I say he scores 17> this coming year.
He didn’t produce but his try was there. I think a Stanley could be won with him as fourth line left winger so I included him as part of the solution. (Cap hit aside)
Taking cap hit into account, he could be replaced with two fourth line wingers for same money.
I read that Keith wont retire so there’s that.
I think we won’t see as many changes as we think or want
Unless I’ve missed something, what you read is speculation and what “is likely” not necessarily the actual outcome …..
The more I think about it the money was spent last summer this is the continuity season for internal growth – young pros (McLeod, Bouchard, Puljajarvi, Yamamoto) producing for more minutes and – younger pros pushing older pros down the batting order (Holloway, Broberg, Skinner).
Hyman-McDavid-Jesse
Hopkins-Drasaitl-Yamamoto
Foegele-McLeod-Kassian
Holloway-Ryan-xxxx
Nurse-Ceci
Keith-Bouchard
Broberg-Barrie
XXX
Skinner
Kane – we just can’t afford another $7M forward – we chose 2 x$5M and a $2.75M last year and signed them. I hope Kane finds what he is looking for – He might have been the pick up of the year in 2022.
Kuklak – We are going to make the play-offs next year, this type of addition is a deadline pick up. Broberg will benefit from the minutes and we will love the cap space next summer.
Smith on LTIR is great – we are going to get a Husso or Campbell if they falter, Smith might be ready for hockey around February next year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-VpvcuKEA4
This line up would not surprise me at lol, but it would disappoint me greatly.
Even more disappointing, that lineup has about $2M in cap available to sign Husso or Campbell. Enjoy.
Fool me once shame on you; Fool me twice shame on me.
When it comes to the Goaltenders, will Holland be left standing when the music stops?
Or will he be decisive and move quickly (even if it means a perceived overpay)
I think the Oilers will have a new Starter early on July 13th….. or sooner.
I’m baffled by some thoughts out there that JP will only bring in a second rounder. The guy scored 14 goals and was +22. Even if you question his effectiveness, he is clearly a functional NHL player and won’t cost a tonne of cap. There should be no reason we don’t get a functional player in return.
Everything hinges on his contract demands (and possibly arbitration) .
The return on trade is completely contingent upon his salary ..imo.
We know how GMs like to copy the reigning SC champs, and that means every GM is looking for the next Nicushkin. Is their a more obvious candidate for this than Puljujarvi?
Even Though my preference is to keep Jessa, there are good fits in places like Carolina and New Jersey, (and by good fits I also mean that I can spell Ty Smith or Martin Necas without having to look them up).
I would be very pleased with Ty Smith for Yessa. It would have to be plus from Jersey tho, Smith had an atrocious year and is on the smaller side. Prospects not in a straight line and all that.
I’d be interested to hear what folks around here would have to say. Smith and a later pick? Could be a steal.
I think the thoughts of low return come from a/ Oilers past and b/ what was reported by Specter who said other GM’s or scouts assessed a return as a second or third rounder.
Logical thinking would be a return of an NHL player.
Yeah, there are a lot of potential trades where another RFA former first round pick needing to be “reassessed by another organization” is the return:
Carolina – Necas
Chicago – Strome
Detroit – Zadina
NJ – Zacha
NYI – Bellows
NYR – Kakko
Phi – Frost
Pitts – Kapanen
Personally, I would like to see Jesse and this year’s first round pick packaged up and sent to either NYR for Kakko + Georgiev … or to NJ for Zacha + Blackwood. In both cases middle round picks would need to be coming back … NJ has three fourth rounders, including our own.
3 4th rounders FTFY
I like the list, and would much rather see JP traded for one of these than for a second-rounder. Could be a win-win for both teams. But I’m pretty sure that some of these players would not be available in exchange for Puljujarvi.
This is a list of players where at least half could explode when paired up with our centers.
VERY intrigued by which older UFA’s might be willing to come to Edmonton based on room and board, (<$1m) for the possibility of winning a Cup?
3rd/4th Line Center Ryan Getzlaf.
Any guesses anyone?
Ryan Getzlaf retired this year
So did Tom Brady 🙂
Fair point Shane. Care to hazard a guess?
Bozak, Cogliano, Helm come to mind as bottom 6ers that Holland could look at but I think you mean more former elite players looking for cup runs.?
And I know he’s under contract already but it’s a slow news day so I’ll just add that I would sign Corey Perry in a heartbeat…now I’ll just skip out the back here while this place burns to the ground…😉
How about the Big Z ?
Z is NOT coming out west..we know this
And Chara is done as an NHL’er. He’s even slower than Keith.
I can’t help but look at P.K. Subban and think it makes sense on a 1×1 (or close). Where else is he going to get the opportunity to try and prove he’s still got gas in the tank AND chase a cup at the same time. Guy’s not young, but he probably still has a few years before retirement. Not to mention he’s made his money already. Obviously, that’s contingent on Barrie being shipped out though.
Paul Stastny might also fit the bill.
I could see Giroux coming here to chase that cup, but probably not in the room and board range.
I think P.K will go where he can get some PP time. That is not in Edmonton
I think Subban’s time in the NHL might be coming to a close soon. He doesn’t have the wheels anymore and his point production has dropped significantly in the last few years with NJ.
I could see teams offering him a PTO at league minimum. But hey, he does seem to fit Holland’s requirements doesn’t he?
Agreed. His back is limiting his productivity. Hard pass.
Big Joe?
How about Patrick Hornqvist? At 1M after he likely gets bought out this summer?
IMO, Duncan Keith is an Oiler for the 2022-23 season…. AND BEYOND!
That would be the smart money. I wonder what kind of job Holland offered him if he would retire.
If Keith shows up on the Oilers (or any other company owned by Katz) in any capacity other than as a player in 22/23, the Oilers would be investigated. If this job paid anything out of the ordinary for the role, the Oilers would be in circumvention of the cap. No job the Oiler could offer him would pay at the very best be 20% of what he gets to play next season and likely a lot less than that. He will not be financially incented to retire, he will only retire if he doesn’t feel he can play or do what it takes to play.
I heard he hurt his back in the off season???
If Keith plays this year, I think there’s a very good chance he signs a series of cheap one-year deals going forward.
I’m prone to sarcasm and hyperbole, but I don’t think that I am wildly unfair. I’ll try to filter that out here.
Holland values experience, established ability and who he knows.
He seems to have less fear of aging curves than he does for projecting emerging talent in terms of trading for players from other teams who don’t have an established level of ability. He didn’t even claim Ned from waivers.
Holland is not a deal hound. He doesn’t look around the league, find a team with cap problems and take advantage of it. Sakic did this with the Capitals and managed to get Burakovsky and Grubauer for cheap. He also did that in acquiring Devon Toews.
Holland prefers to shop free agency over an above trading for a particular need.
Holland doesn’t cast a wide net.
When Holland needed a powerplay shooter, he went to free agency to go after the player whom he thought was the best available at a price he could afford. He targeted Brett Connolly. When Connolly wouldn’t sign in Edmonton, he checked down to Alex Chiasson. I certainly never heard that there was a plan b,c, or d between them.
When Holland wanted a goalie upgrade, his list was seemingly one player long. He saw Jacob Markstrom as a desirable target. When Markstrom went with Calgary, he checked down to sign Mike Smith two days later. Was there a plan b,c, or d that no one ever heard about? Maybe.
The next time he had an opportunity for a goalie upgrade, he tried to trade for Darcy Kuemper. When he was outbid by Joe Sakic, he checked down to signing Mike Smith, again.
All that being said, Holland valued the two year length of Keith’s contract for an obvious reason. It would make a tremendous amount of sense for him to trade for a goalie that has one year left on his contract as there’s a lot of bad salary coming off the books after this up coming season.
I think you captured Hollands’ MO very accurately. I previously stated he shops only in the “what’s available” isle. Everybody knows the good stuff is in the back room.
I don’t see him as persistent or relentless in identifying and pursuing a target. He works the phones, sees what’s out there. Contrast this to discussions around Sakic where he is known to pursue and capitalize.
Thus I hope his pro scouting can improve, and find those Hyman at 3M
LT hinted at this in his post this morning.
“Good will bunting.”
Zach Hyman…30…7X$5.5 million
27G 54P
Michael Bunting…26…2X$950K
23G 63P
Not hinted but its screaming at us.
Maxed out on prospects, maxed out on money. Oilers must, must find a way to find these players and sign them. Its important to all teams, but we are are at a critical point.
These players are not going to swim up and jump in the boat on their own. We have to go find them.
I think you missed the part about both Zach Hyman and Michael Bunting being from Toronto. The first required money and term to leave the comforts of playing in his home city, and the second was returning to his home city on a team friendly contract. Bunting would not have signed for the same low AAV in Edmonton.
You have no way to know this.
Plus it is merely an example of a GM being able to to identify a cost effective way to replace an aging asset rather than sign them to a max term contract that lasts into their declining years.
Hyman has certainly come as advertised but will be 36 when his contract ends.
Colorado faces a similar situation with the 31 year old Kadri.
Saki’s handling of that situation should be instructive.
Hyman had just turned 29 when he signed his contract. Kadri’s birthday in 4 months will make him 32. So basically 3 years difference in age in relative terms or 43% of Hyman’s contract term. Only you would try and claim those are similar, but once the facts are revealed, it again shows the disingenuous nature of your posts.
And they are almost the same age
Playoffs:
Hyman 16GP 11G! 16P
Bunting 6GP 1G 3P
Ya it worked out great for Toronto good point.
Now do points/million
Sure I’ll bite. Dog days of summer and all that.
950K/3 = 316K 5.5M/16 = 343K
So your argument holds water, but hey wait a sec, Bunting didn’t get any points for 3 of those games played. So we should have rate of scoring.
316K/6 Games = 52.6K cost per p/g
343K/16 games = 21.4K cost per p/g
But that’s not really fair is it. Because we paid Hyman 5.1M this year in actual dollars
5.1M/16/16 = 19.9K cost per p/g.
Considering he played more and produced more in the playoffs when the rubber hits the road, heavy and obvious edge Hyman, even when we were getting trounced by the Avs.
Would you like me to do Colbourne and Leon next?
Since you want to go down the rabbit hole…what did Dubas spend the cap savings on?
Hyman – $5.5 million
Bunting – $950K
Bunting $950K
Andrej Kase – $1.25 million
David Kampf – $1.5 million
TOTAL $3.75 million
Points Including playoffs
Hyman – 70
Bunting – Kase – Kampf -124
So not only did the Dubas additions outscore Hyman significantly but they also filled at least two other roster spots including (for the kids in the back) two regular penalty killers.
Now, since Dubas still has some walking around money from this series of transactions, it’s likely he had more flexibility in other situations.
And, of course, you would have to add two bottom 6 Oiler players (McLeod, Foegele?) to equalize the roster spots filled which makes the equation significantly more lopsided in the Leafs’ favour.
Good Will Bunting indeed.
I’m not going to take the time, but you have to include the Oilers players who were slotted in the same spots as Kase and Kampf to make this fair. Ponderous, HH. Ponderous.
Sure…that’s why I suggested a couple.
Their 52 points narrows the gap considerably but then you have to also add their cap hits .
That’s another $3.8 million extra cap hit for essentially the same production.
Lol. It’s an endless moving of the chains. Make sure to include Draisaitl vs. Tavares.
Tavares was the biggest mistake Dubas has made.
But replacing Hyman with Bunting and freeing up a ton of cap space for other priorities was one of his best.
That’s a silly exercise. If the same was applied to Marner, Matthews, Reilly, Muzzin, Tavares, etc… Then Dubas would look dumber than he already does.
Hyman’s performance in THREE rounds of playoff hockey was spectacular.
Bunting…. Hmmmmm.
I’d love to poll current leaf players to see if they’d rather have Bunting or Hyman. I can tell you Toronto’s sports radio stations were going nuts over Edmonton’s progression and how Toronto’s management were to blame for letting Hyman slip away.
In terms of Bunting’s return to Toronto, you have no way of knowing he didn’t come back for the reasons outlined by Diablo.
Solid 2:07 for the season from Bunting on the PK.
Hyman with 2 minutes (apx) per game – also 1.79 P/60 on the PK and near tops on the team in GA/60 on the PK – playing lots of PP1.
Hyman was exactly what Edmonton needed last year – he drives possession, is an excellent PKer and has pretty good hands in front on the net on the PP. Add to that he’s an outstanding person in the dressing room and community, and that 5.5 million dollar contract is one of the best UFA deals Edmonton has ever signed. His only down arrow is that he can be injury prone, which is due to how hard he plays – a style that is conducive to success in the playoffs.
A brilliant player that the other 31 teams in the league would love to have on their team.
I didn’t say that you’re being wildly unfair, and I don’t think you are.
Your post yesterday was about goalies and who Holland is likely to end up adding. I disagreed with how high you have Holtby and Jones on the likely outcomes list.
I agree Holland is unlikely to trade for an emerging goalie (Logan Thompson?) to pair with Skinner.
I do disagree with the lack of plan b, c etc being an issue. In all the cases you describe there was an incumbent of known value available. My take was that Connolly, Markstrom and Kuemper were deemed the only clear upgrades (in Connolly’s case taking cap into account). FWIW, I mostly agreed with those (presumed) assessments, though obviously many think differently about Chiasson, Smith, Koskinen than I do/did.
In each case a plan a (upgrade) and a plan b (cheaper incumbent you are comfortable with). This year will be different because there is no incumbent. But inferring he won’t have any backup plans based Connolly/Chiasson, Markstrom/Smith or Kuemper/Smith, I don’t think is reasonable.
I agree that trading for a 1 year goalie could make a lot of sense. But at what cost, cap hit and quality? Trading a 1st and former 1st for Kuemper made sense because they won the cup, but there’s also an argument it was too many assets for 1 year of a goalie. No guarantees there are better options available next year either, so there are multiple bets baked into one. We will see.
You have 4 bullet points in “Holland’s List”
You have 7 bullet points in the “Assets” list.
If Holland can fulfill all the bullet points on his list, I don’t care if he fires all of his bullets in terms of the assets.
#FireAway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-VpvcuKEA4
I also quite enjoyed your assessment this morning LT. Very insightful.
To comment on Puljujarvi. This young man has been sailing his own ship for some time. I suggest there is more evidence to support Puljujarvi driving decisions and not Oilers management, and that started his very first year with what looked like a mandatory 40 game NHL appearance.
Im not always supportive (for obvious reasons) of roster decisions by Oilers GM’s, so I can be quick to doubt. In this case I don’t see management “sending him away”. Actually, I think they resist as they can see him on third line minimal and moving up the line up at a decent price.
I think it is much more likely Puljujarvi forces their hand. And while he may play well and put up some points with his new team, he will be just as unpopular. We talk over and over about players who have to adapt, adjust, redefine their game to stay in the NHL. That has not hit Puljujarvi yet.
I also believe new coach seen some things he did not like. Woody arrived and immediately lined up everybody where they “should” be. Your position. To keep or lose. He gave bottom six guys more icetime and a chance to belong. Some were found wanting and he so he even brought Malone in. Very interesting decision. He spread out talent, even to the third line. In amongst this he tried Jessie here and there, finally minimizing his ice time.
What did Woody see?
What does the rest of the league see?
While acknowledging his good analytical numbers, I think his public goofy smile is masking some behind-the-scenes stubbornness. Depending on your point of view, this kid is either overestimating his abilities or he refuses to let the Oilers hurt his development. Personally, I think Holland and the coaches have handled Pulji quite well. If there is a split, then I would put most of the blame on the fourth overall pick. Holland did not accept a second or third rounder earlier so I doubt he accepts one now that the kid has boosted his value.
Everyone and their dog knows that Jesse’s best path to fame and fortune in the NHL would be to sign a deal for 1-2 more seasons in Edmonton, mend fences, and ensure that he gets to stay on a team where he lines up next to one of McDavid, Draisaitl or RNH every game. Get a shooting coach, work on his shot. Two years from now, he’ll get a massive contract as a UFA.
But Winchester is right … Jesse (or his agent) have always pushed the Oilers to give him more than he has earned, using the threat of returning to Finland as collateral.
Woody cut his minutes back in the playoffs, because he was not converting the cherry chances he got from McDavid and Kane … while we should acknowledge that he played a role in getting puck possession, it is also true that those possessions often ended up with Jesse sending a muffin shot straight at the goalie, or trying to overpass the puck when he had a clear five alarm shooting lane. The difference between him and a legit first line winger was immediately evident when Kane arrived on McDavid’s other wing … there’s no hesitation when Kane gets a Grade A chance; the puck is off his stick immediately, with precision and torque. And when it comes to mucking it up, Kane knows his job there too, though he can be a bit over-zealous … Jesse is the polar opposite, as he’s always above the fray.
He’s not the only player (and agent) who’s tried to use the leverage of being a high first round pick as leverage, but its a tricky line to straddle without alienating your team-mates.
It may be more his agent being stubborn and a bit of a dick and BisonKing deferring to his agent. Case in point, look at our first go around with this early in Jesse’s tenure and the clumsy hardball his agent attempted – ended up with Holland winning the staring match as agent had no leverage and Jesse returning to Finland. I suspect this would be a far different situation with almost ANY other agent involved. He imagines leverage where none exists, to the detriment of his client.
Woody’s usage of Jesse requires careful examination before deciding that he must have thought less of him.
For his first 4 games under Woodcroft, Jesse played almost exclusively with Connor, but got injured relatively early in the 4th game then missed a full month. From when he returned to the line up in mid-March till the end of the regular season, he played 65% of his time with Connor, 25% with Leon and 7% with Nuge as his centers. He only averaged about 1 minute less per game compared to under Tippett, but Woodcroft also had Kane full time to take up top 6 minutes. Woodcroft even talked about how Jesse was just getting going in mid-February after a prolonged slump, when he got injured, but when he came back afterwards he was struggling with confidence.
In the series against LA, for the first 5 games, Jesse was playing mostly with Connor and a little bit with Nuge. Leon was already playing hurt going into the playoffs and, while centering his own line, had struggled through the first 5 games in the series at 5 on 5. The Mike Anderson take down of Leon early in game 6 put an end to Leon centering his own line for the rest of the playoffs. That is the timing of when Jesse usage got meaningfully changed by Woodcroft.
For the remainder of the playoffs, Evander Kane (67 minutes), Hyman (35 minutes) and Kailer (27 minutes) got the time as Connor and Leon’s winger, while Jesse only got 6 minutes. I think in part due to the nature and side of his injury, Leon was more comfortable playing RW with Connor and be on his offside. With either Kane or Hyman on their left side, they outscored the opposition 15-5 in 11 games at 5 on 5. While it was a small sample size, Jesse/Leon and Connor were out-chanced and outscored in those 6 minutes, while with Kailer on the wing, the line did have more success. And anyone who wants to bring up Kassian getting a chance with Leon and Connor, they outchanced the opposition and went 2 GF/0 GA in just over 4 minutes.
Woodcroft from game 6 against LA forward played Jesse about 2/3 of his time with McLeod and 1/3 with Nuge and his ice time was reduced. I do not know why Woodcroft didn’t play Jesse more with Nuge in these circumstances, but he often talked about chess pieces and moving things around to get a fit. He strikes me as a person who puts some thought into his decisions.
It is quite possible, if Leon had entered the playoffs healthy, and hadn’t been further injured by Anderson, Jesse’s overall usage in the playoffs would have been substantially different and probably would have gotten more ice time and a lot of it in the top 6.
I don’t think you nee to look any further than Puljujarvi got injured and then he got Covid. That’s why his production tanked compared to the first part of the year.
Very well said. So in this scenario there is simply nothing going on more than a coach adjusting his roster to maximize effectiveness.
As injuries hit, he changed up his roster. But then Jesse did not emerge as a solution, he fell further down the roster. He also could have been hurt. If not hurt, his performance to keep #1RW was not adequate.
This seems reasonable, performance based deployment by the coach.
It is hard to understand how a player would come out of this situation only seeing it from their own perspective and they did not play in the top six, thus disappointing and perhaps time for a new start. Has to be more to it.
To get an accurate read, I think you have to back years to review all the interactions about Jesse assessing his abilities as higher than the team assessment.
Can we discuss trading Keith now? If he was in trade discussions i imagine it would affect his decisions.
Arizona would love 5.5M to get to the Cap floor for only at 1.5 real dollars.
Now, Im not optimistic he has any value; but he had way more value than we thought when Holland traded for him. And posters here have indicated how good he was last season for the Oil.
There is zero chance Keith will accept a trade anywhere. He’s either going to retire, or look at the Oilers as giving him one more shot at a Cup, and we’re close to Kelowna for his son.
Does he have a full no move clause?
Kelowna should be irrelevant to team.
Yes he does have a full no movement clause. He can’t be traded to anyone or sent to the minors without his consent. And Keith is the one that emphatically stated he needed to be close to Kelowna regardless of what anyone else thinks about whether he needs to be close or not.
I have never understood this “close to his son” narrative. Edmonton is not close to Kelowna. People talk about it like his son lives in Leduc. You need to get on a plane. It takes an hour and 20 minutes. Phoenix also requires a plane. It takes 3 hours and 25 minutes. Neither are what I would call close and both take essentially a half day to get there.
With the War on Travel just starting to take flight, I don’t think this equivalency is all that equivalent. When you add in Customs, Covid measures, Cancellations, Carbon taxes…
You should also think of it as the kid travelling to meet his Dad. Not the other way around.
Phoenix is also in another country which adds customs to the equation. Prior to recent times, it also added Covid-protocol reasons.
Also, I may be wrong but I think there are a total of zero direct flights daily between Phoenix and Kelowna.
Edmonton is close in that he doesn’t have to cross an international border to see his son. Last year, Covid was still a big issue. It is still somewhat of an issue because governments might impose a new definition of fully-medicated…er…fully vaccinated, and our government seems to enjoy power tripping regulations for travel at the border.
Despite the respect everyone has for Keith, I wonder if there is an overall vibe from his teammates that he could increase their chances for a Cup even more by retiring
Where is there anything real about his being in trade discussions?
There is all but zero chance that he agrees to a trade to Arizona to play for the Yotes and, in my opinion, the trade-buyout-re-sign for cheap scenario very well may not be amenable to the future first ballot hall of famer and likely not something management would ask him to do.
What if was bought out and signed in Vancouver …
There was a point here yes, I was making up trade proposal on purpose.
First that if he was truly valuable to the team for his 5.5M then he should be tradable, and that would be one solution to free up cap space.
The second is that if he is not truly tradable at all to another team it means he really was not all that valuable and reflects poorly on the trade. At the time of the trade, LT suggested it was the end of Puljujarvi.
Third, while it is nice to look after Hall of Fame vets and keep them close to their loved ones, it is even nicer to maximize your cap so you can win Stanley. That is the GM’s first responsibility.
My comments not AT you directly, OP, just building on the thread.
Question for the day again is, “Can we win Stanley with Duncan Keith in #2LD position for 5.5M?”
Is anyone positing that he is value for $5.5MM?
I think some may have the opinion that he is valuable to the team on the ice and with the acquisition cost of Jones and a 3rd, but the trade was not great due to the $5.5MM. He can be a serviceable 2LD via his performance and valuable but not with his cap hit and the trade not be great.
Stauffer’s tweet:
Hearing that multiple pending-UFA’s are watching the Evander Kane situation with the @EdmontonOilers closely.
After what Connor McDavid (10-23-33/16 GP) and Leon Draisaitl (7-25-32) did in the playoffs, there is belief the Oilers are contenders.
Isn’t this just rephrasing what Friedman had in his 32 Thoughts? Nothing new here. Now it’d be more interesting if Stauffer could elaborate on some potential UFAs that are interested and the ones Oilers may approach.
Stauffer is just parroting what Friedman said the other day. But I’m happy if there is a changing perception, obviously.
I wonder when this change in perception will hit the fanbase and not just other GMs?
Given the amount of angst this offseason you’d figure we’re batting for 25th instead of I dunno top 8, maybe top 5?
Interesting times in Oilers fandom, interesting times.
Ive been wondering this too. I think it’s going to take a few years of contention for the dread of the last 15 years to shake off. And even then, as LT has alluded to in the past, that still may not be enough for some people..
Stauffer:
Just to follow up.
The @EdmontonOilers GM Ken Holland has expressed his desire to re sign Kane…and I believe the Kane-camp would be open to a long-term extension with the Oilers.
Kane had 35 goals in 58 GP in EDM (regular season and playoffs)
—————-
Well, yes, the Kane camp would want long term and, of course, Oilers should want no more than 2-3 years for the soon to be 31 year old.
Hopefully the reported interest by other UFAs around the league will help in the negotiations with Kane. Grind Kenny!
Brace yourself OP.
In the words of LT: “The Oilers are going to make moves you don’t like this summer. Hold back your water for the devastating stuff, you’re going to need it.”
$7m x 5yrs.
$6.5m x 6yrs
#CertifiedConnerMcDavidSealOfApproval
Heck of article this morning LT, I really enjoyed it and agree with how you’ve framed these issues, the needs, and the potential assets and their value.
In terms of an analytics hire, I would imagine that these days, although you mention quality names, there are lots of other quality names out there unknown to us. I guess the worry is how effective would these other names be? How does an organization late to the party using analytics make astute hirings in the area?
It sounds like folks in key positions (like head coach) are interested in, and able to understand, these things, which really is step 1 – all the analysis in the world wouldn’t make a difference if the decision makers don’t listen.
I’m more hopeful than ever that the Oilers might be turning a page. Front office moves over the next 24 months will be key to this org’s future health.
I think the under mentioned thing with JP is Connor McDavid’s opinion of him as a linemate.
Elliotte Friedman was asked on his podcast about this era of player power (he was asked specifically about Sid) and he compared Sid and Connor. He was careful to choose his words but says that although Sid likes to be told about the team’s direction he doesn’t feel it’s part of his job description. Connor on the otherhand, he believes has more substantial input into the team decision making; likely through Jeff Jackson. He suggested it’s something that’s evolved over the past few years…implying it was part of what had him commit to 8 years when things were tough.
I think Connor and Jeff Jackson are the tip of the iceberg on the way to NBA-style player influence. Maybe never to that level but much more than “shut up and skate”.
All of this to say, if Michael Parkatti or whomever on the analytics side wants to say that Puljujaarvi is a good linemate for 97 it won’t matter a hill of beans if McDavid himself thinks the player is a play-killer.
I love Puljujarvi but will acknowledge his poor finishing ability. I think Connor saw what an elite finisher like Draisaitl and Kane can do with him and he won’t settle for anything lesser in that department.
I also don’t like the idea of Puljujarvi with McLeod and Foegele as no one on that line could finish/ score. Play Jesse with Hyman and Draisaitl and I think that line could be enormously impactful.
I agree with the idea of the best player in the league having some input in decisions but I think it was more of a ‘are you okay if we bring over a known cancer in the room’ as opposed to actual personnel decisions. And despite how much Connor affects this team, I don’t know any NHL team that will ever have a player like the NBA, or even the QB in the NFL that will have enough sway or desire to make those decisions.
I feel a positive move is the leadership group has more say than an individual player. As it should be, they are the ones who know the pulse of the room.
Wonder what the down votes here signify. I’ve always felt that both Connor and Leon have a say on who’s in who’s not. It could very well be that both of them are not too high on JP and are not opposed to seeing him traded for a good return. Bear in mind that Ken has admitted to talking to them about team issues before. I think the Hyman add had a big nod of approval from the two and that is also why I feel the Oilers will pursue Kane with full vigor once the lawsuit is settled…
Downvotes, like upvotes, signify absolutely nothing.
I would behoove all posters to put absolutely no stock in them – they are meaningless.
And yet, even though you keep telling us this, people on the blog still see value in them..
They can have their opinion, I can have mine – as is the functionality of the blog….
You’re absolutely right. And that’s why I was calling you out for telling the blog what to do..
Again, my opinion.
Perhaps it behooves you to keep some of them to yourself at times?? So that the inevitable 12 people who downvote HHs next post about the superiority of the Canucks management team don’t get told they don’t matter by a continual and valuable contributor to the blog.?
Just my opinion..
I’m just trying to figure out how many downvotes get’s HH’s messages deleted!He hit net 20 some the other day and did not disappear. LT said there is a number, we should figure it out!
I’m good – thanks for your suggestion.
Will provide my opinions as I believe I see fit.
You’re implying things that aren’t inferred about “valuable contributions”. That’s ok though, it happens and no skin.
They do have value if the poster goes back and reflects on why a specific post may have elicited a downvote. It’s fine to give a dissenting opinion that goes against the group think, but when doing so it’s important to give appropriate context and rationale.
I find that most of the posts which get downvoted are from (a) trolls looking to get a rise from other posters … the downvotes allow us to express our displeasure at this without needing to actually respond to the troll,(b) sky-is-falling trolls …. the ones who come on here periodically to demand that the current coach or GM be fired and all the players traded off, and (c) where a previous trade, free agent signing or draft choice is criticized without accounting for the context of why that transaction was made.
With respect to this thread, I find myself very much in agreement with Knighttown … why shouldn’t McDavid be consulted? He took less to give the team a chance to be competitive. He is the heart and soul of the team, and the player around which the entire team is constructed. If he doesn’t mesh well with Jesse, then management should know that.
A massive boon on the analytics and progressive forward-thinking would be the Brian Lawton hiring. Here is hoping he is hired in to management and Brad Holland takes over as head of pro scouting.
We know Lawton is not returing to the NHL network and I think the Oilers are a legit candidate but far from a lock to nab him.
I hope management avoids the drunkards lamp post dilemma, wherein they use the lamp post more for support than illumination… they will need to be nuanced in their usage, rather than just jumping aboard the bandwagon.
I do hope we add more people to the upper ranks in the organization that value these things, but is Lawton a strong candidate in this area?
Honest question, I don’t really know. I do know that I’ve never been given the impression that he really knows his stuff when it comes to analytics despite him talking a lot about them on the air. Of course, this is only the impression I’ve been left with, I don’t have any examples or evidence to suggest he’s out to lunch here, and I could just as easily be way off (not unique for me).
From what I’ve read and heard, yes Lawton would be a great add in this area.
I agree on Barrie and real value but many do deny it. We read/hear about him being “bad” and negative value and not tradeable.
IIRC, That was a common meme LAST summer. That thinking has died down considerably after his performance this past season, to my mind. His defensive play has improved noticeably of late.
The thing about Barrie is he is a good player, respected around the league and a positive part of team dynamics.
If it was not cap crunch the Oilers would not be trading him. And if they were to lose Kieth I think he stays.
What? Go way…. I do dot believe anyone is saying he has negative value at this point…
Well, you would be wrong – I’ve read it all over the internet including in the comments to pieces on The Athletic and OilersNation and Copper N’ Blue, etc.
You missed my subtle message. It’s in the typos.
The only thing for certain LT is that this roster is still a bit of a mess and it won’t be cleaned up any time soon. The best fans can hope for is a few tweaks here and there.
Smith on LTIR is heartening for many as it could preclude an upgrade at the position but it will cost in other areas.
Mike Smith’s play has led to him being on massive value contracts the last few years. He’s 6th in save percentage over the last few years.
The UFA goalies available all have question marks that come with their big contracts and the trade options do as well.
An acquisition in the name of upgrade will cost more cap and will likely be far from a surety to be a real upgrade on performance.
I believe most teams shoot more on Smith then they would on other Goalies because of his rebound control isn’t as good as it once was. Also Smith let’s in some real stinkers from low danger shots. Finally because of Smith’s ability to play the puck so well indirectly leads to more rush shots aka muffin man shots from the outside.
I still believe Kassian can be traded with no (material) sweetener by retaining salary.
Not the best option but, for me, much better than buying him out and better than paying assets to dispose.
Agreed. If a buyout is the last option, trading with retention is the second last one.
I definitely agree in the case of a buyout, but a sweetener to move it fully is fine depending on what the asset is. Retained salary deals should be something of a last resort IMO.
This time of year, offering up a draft pick (when the value of a pick is at its highest and teams haven’t filled out their rosters yet) is a relatively low stakes way to move a problematic contract. The cap space is worth far more to this team at this point than a 4th round pick will be considering how tight we are to the cap.
For 2 X $3.2MM for a, in my opinion, replacement level player, who is actually a net negative on many nights with poor defensive zone and generally poor defensive play, that sweetener would be material.
I don’t think a fourth round pick comes even close.
The asset the Oilers get back from a trade is cap space and the opportunity to add a stronger contributor to the fourth line. Period. If they have to add a (reasonable) sweetener that’s to be expected.
Cap space has a real value — you can’t expect to acquire it for free.
The sweetener would not be a nominal asset like a 4th round pick – it would be a real asset with real value.
No more buy-outs we need a clean slate to resign Leon then Connor.