Each draft has a specific feel to it, and as soon as a draft is done I cast about looking for any back pages that rhyme. I found a somewhat similar draft in 2006, the year Edmonton dealt its first-round pick and had just five selections overall. Beyond that the resemblances are minor and distant. It was an eventful draft, but a trade and a retirement overwhelmed the young picks by some margin.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline needs a post-draft boost
- New DNB: Oilers’ Duncan Keith to retire, opening up more possibilities for Ken Holland
- DNB: Oilers’ Zack Kassian trade clears crucial salary cap space, so what’s next?
- Lowetide: 5 AHL players who can help the Oilers next season
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland has more than the NHL Draft on his mind
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason what I think and what I know 1.0
- Lowetide: Remember Oilers’ biggest summer ever? It needs to happen again
- DNB: How Oilers’ draft pick Kelly Buchberger became the long shot who delivered
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers look to RFA’s to find solutions?
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- Lowetide: The 2022 NHL draft has a chance to be unique in Edmonton Oilers history.
- DNB: Tyler Wright Q&A
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Xavier Bourgault make the 2022-23 opening night roster?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ pivotal summer and what fans want to see from Ken Holland
- Lowetide: 10 free agents for Edmonton Oilers to target this summer
- Lowetide: What Oilers assets should Ken Holland trade this summer?
- DNB: Oilers commit to coach Jay Woodcroft
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway NHL-ready?
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
- Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for success
- DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
THE 2022 DRAFT
The Oilers had just four selections over the two days, with just one of them coming in the first 150 picks. It would be a massive upset for Edmonton to land two NHL players from this draft and it’s possible the organization gets none. That has happened (1990) but my suspicion is one man will emerge from the group.
LOWETIDE’S PROJECTED SELECTIONS
- No. 29: RW Jagger Firkus, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). He was chosen No. 35 by the Seattle Kraken.
- No. 158: LD Filip Nordberg, Södertälje (Swe Jr). He was chosen No. 64 by the Ottawa Senators.
- No. 190: RD Garrett Brown, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Winnipeg picked him No. 99.
- No. 222: RD Jack Sparkes, St. Michael’s (OJHL). No. 180 to the Los Angeles Kings.
Usually my list is wildly obscure, so that most names aren’t chosen in the actual draft. This time, all were chosen and went early. These are good players.
MY PICKS THAT WEREN’T SELECTED
- G Hugo Hävelid, (Swe U20). Small, brilliant goalie.
- LC Theo Rochette (QMJHL). Talented and creative.
- RD Jacob Guévin (USHL). Offensive defenseman, fine skater.
- LW James Stefan (WHL). Impressive passing and scoring winger.
- RC Pano Fimis (OHL). Responsible center with skill.
- LW Jeremy Wilmer (USHL). Pure skill, elusive with the puck on his stick.
- LC Markus Vidicek (QMJHL). Slick skills and good numbers.
- RC Ryan Francis (QMJHL). Unsigned by Flames. Skill, plug-and-play AHL.
- G Jan Spunar (Czech). Gigantic goalie with great numbers.
- LC Matthew Ward (WHL). Magic on the power play
- LC Justin Cote (QMJHL). Under the radar, but he has skill. July 2004.
- RW Brayden Schuurman (WHL). Small winger, can score goals.
- LW Arvid Sundin (SHL). Underzied burner has breathtaking shifts.
- LW Antonin Verreault (QMJHL). Playmaking winger. Great passer.
- LW Eric Alarie (WHL). Big skill winger.
- LD Samuel Mayer (OHL). Overage, brings solid play in all areas.
- G Thomas Milic (WHL). Average size, great numbers at U18 WJC and WHL playoffs.
- LW Alexander Suvorov (KHL). Overager has skill but needs an extra gear.
- LW Nikita Buruyanov (MHL). Small skill winger.
HARVEST MOON 2022
- No. 32 overall LW Reid Schaefer, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Schaefer is the 77th pick by Edmonton from the WHL and the third (Trevor Sim, Ethan Bear) from the Thunderbirds. He is 6.03, 213 and has a great shot. He averaged 3.5 shots per game last season and had a 14.0 shooting percentage. 21 of his goals came at evens, nine on the power play and two shorthanded. He enjoyed an impressive playoff. Red Line compared his style to Patrick Maroon and he has many elements of a power forward. He can protect the puck, can take a pass and make a pass and beat goalies clean from range with his shot. He is unique among wingers in the lower levels of the organization. He is a September 2003 so it’s possible Schaefer turns pro next fall (2003-04). One more thing: Despite his being an older prospect, Schaefer didn’t play much at the WHL level before this season. It was a new experience and he went 32-26-58 in 66 games. Pronman likes him plenty. NHLE is 21.8 points per 82 games.
- No. 158 overall G Samuel Jonsson, Brynas (Swedish Jr). I had a Swedish goalie (Havelid) on my list but Jonsson’s size (6.05, 201) made him a more attractive target. His numbers are not great, an .883 save percentage in Sweden’s U20 league is not a selling point. He’s a December 2003, making this his first draft. In fairness to Jonsson, his team sucks big time and his partner in net had a worse (.865) save percentage. Edmonton’s scouts saw something here, and this isn’t the scouting staff that plucked Samu Perhonen and Frans Tuohimaa, nor the one that chose Zach Nagelvoort and Keven Bouchard. It’s best to see how this plays out, watching the young man develop and write his own future. We don’t have much to go on today.
- No. 190 overall LD Nikita Yevseyev, Irbis Kazan (MHL) and Bars Kazan (VHL). He’s a May 2004, and 6.01, 187. His resume suggests we’re dealing with a rugged player. In the MHL (Russian juniors), he compiled 76 pims in 27 games. There’s some offense, he posted 2-9-11 in those junior games. In the MHL, roughly the equivalent of the AHL in Russia, he played 37 games (2-3-5) and found it tougher sledding against more mature players. He did average 13:38 in his 37 VHL games, so played quite a bit for a young defenseman. NHLE is 7.4 points per 82 games.
- No. 222 LC Joel Maatta, Vermont (Hockey-East). He’s 20, can skate well and is 6.01, 220. He delivered 3-3-6 in 32 games for Vermont, and had two USHL seasons before it that showed average offensive output for a forward. He is described as a strong forward who wins battles and can push to the net, but in three seasons he’s been on the radar the numbers are pedestrian. As is the case with Jonsson and Yevseyev, we won’t bury this player but the numbers suggest this player will fall short of the NHL. NHLE is 6.0, but his best USHL season delivered 12.9 points per 82 games.
THE 2022 DRAFT
It’s important to realize what just happened with the Edmonton Oilers organization. There are several important developments to remember. The Duncan Keith retirement and Zack Kassian trade are huge developments. We can discuss the wisdom of procuring both men, and that has been debated in the town square for some time, but the overriding news is that the Oilers currently own around $20 million in room (cap and LTIR) to sign RFA’s and free agents. Needs are greater now, I count starting goalie, Evander Kane or similar, second pair LH defense and a right winger, plus you’ll need some of the skaters to bring a physical element.
My takeaway from the 2022 draft? The Oilers got a “middle six” winger very late in the first round, a man with a chance to play with skill as a pro, perhaps with one of the elite centers. His first half last season, his first full year in the WHL, saw Schaefer score 14-10-24 in the first 33 games, and 18-16-34 in his final 33 games. I believe this is a solid prospect and appropriate value for the No. 32 selection. He has a great chance to continue what is becoming a solid list of young Oilers who arrived with draft picks outside the top 15 overall. This is Tyler Wright’s third draft as director of scouting with the Oilers, and he and the scouting staff have delivered an impressive group of forwards. Most are pure skill players, Schaefer has range in areas the rest of the prospects dare not tread. I like the pick, and that’s the only one we can grade today. If he’s Nick Paul in five years? Music!
So Hollands gonna move Yams and Puli for vets in the win now column
This team is gonna be differnt regardless
Capfriendly says there is 16.9 in cap room
add Klef and Smith (6.4) to Ltir = 23.3
subtract 3 rfa’s (Yam, JP, McLeod) (7.2?) = 16.1
that’s 10 FW’s (incl Shore). add 2 cheap FW’s (2M) = 14.1
that’s with 5 D incl Broberg. add 1 cheap (1M) = 13.1
holes:
#1 Goalie
top 6 FW
#2 LD
Assuming this accounts for the 900k in overages that cf lists separately. Do we not need space for 3 more on the bench, hard to imagine the team running with 20 players. Also would put 2LD ahead of Top6 FD.
When I tried it Holland still needs to offload Barrie and Kulak to change much. They can be replaced for less
My concern is they value puck moving more than defending the d zone entries
So did this board for many years, just like the 3 unicorns.
I enjoy doing these, so I thought I’d take a stab at a ‘balance’ roster for next years Oilers.
I don’t think this is actually a balanced roster (it ended up F heavy at the expense of the D) but I went for one of the cheap goalie trades and didn’t sign anyone for more than $5M. The price point may also not be realistic for the players I signed.
——————–
Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto
Malkin-Giroux-Kessel
Nuge-McLeod-Hyman
Holloway-Jake Evans-Ryan
Benson-Shore (or imagine someone better if they’ll sign for less than $850k)
——————–
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Ty Smith-Rutta
Broberg (he won’t be #7D, but sub in Niemalainen, Samorukov or other as you see fit)
——————–
Allen
Skinner
——————–
Trades:
Puljujarvi for Ty Smith
Barrie and 3rd for Jake Allen and Jake Evans (bonus for adding 2 Jakes)
Foegele for 2nd
Signings:
Malkin and Giroux $5M for 3 years
Rutta $2.2M x 3
Kessel $1.5M x 2
Yamamoto $3M x 2
McLeod $1.2M x 2
This roster could be exposed on the back end, who the hell knows about the goalies, and may not be realistic up front, but my gawd that forward group looks fun.
Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.
And perhaps an apropos metaphor.
Malkin-Giroux seems wrong too. Incestuous almost.
It’s true, I’m too late to the cheap goalie train. The take home was supposed to be 2 x $5M adds, plus depth, are possible. But one of those adds will most probably be a goalie.
Malkin-Giroux didn’t feel right to me either, but I hadn’t clued in to why. You are likely correct that wouldn’t be a good match.
What do you think of Rakell as a target?
I don’t really know. My impression is that he remains a bit overrated based on those 30 goal seasons back before old man Bouchard was drafted, but I may be appreciating his true value.
Malkin’s current offer (according to the athletic) is $6×3
and he is offended by it. And he desperately wants to stay in pitts.
it’ll have to be more, unless he REALLY wants to win again.
Thanks, I hadn’t looked into that. Definitely doesn’t make sense then.
I particularly like Campbell as the target because of his age. Goalies typically emerge as starters in their mid- to late-20’s and sustain their peak performance for 5-8 years.
Campbell has emerged at approximately age 27, and seeing as how he’s only 30 he should still have 3-5 years of #1G play in him.
For me it boils down to the fact he’s the least-worst option. Kuemper’s age and injury history are too much risk, the Talbot / Allen / Reimer options are too low-ceiling, and anyone else is too unproven.
Both Markstrom and Kuemper would’ve been tremendous adds. Both are top-15 goaltenders and Holland DID try to acquire them. Ultimately he had a budget limitation and went with a budget option, and ended up spending the savings on Tyson Barrie. It was flawed but it worked out okay.
Old Dutch has to find a goalie this summer. And not a low-ceiling goalie like Jake Allen or Cam Talbot, but a guy who they feel they can win with.
The market’s not great but it’s not bad either. For nearly two seasons Campbell has been a strong starting goalie for a very good team. Kuemper was a very good goalie on a bad team, and then good enough to win a cup on an incredible team.
These guys are worth $5-$6M. That’s the market. Now that Keith and Kass are off the books they can afford one. If Kenny doesn’t sign one he’ll have failed.
If you disagree, who would you spend the money on instead? What priority do the Oilers need to address ahead of goaltending?
Um, what? There was no “budget limitation” on Kuemper. It was a trade for an existing contract and Arizona took Colorado’s package. On Markstrom, all reporting was that we offered the same 6x$6m that Calgary did, and he chose Calgary.
Given the way we lit him up like a Christmas tree in the playoffs, I’m not unhappy with his decision.
Could’ve outspent Calgary in dollars, or outspent Colorado in assets.
Had his limit and played within it.
So “ultimately he had a budget limitation” = “Could’ve outspent Calgary in dollars”
Got it! Thanks for clarifying.
It’s not ideal. Every option entails risk and for me the Campbell option is the most tolerable risk.
Like I say Campbell is the least-worst option and I don’t mind deploying $7M on a goalie tandem that includes a #1 in his prime.
Not having a #1 in his prime going into next season would be criminal.
It’s public knowledge that Dubas lowballed Campbell. An insulting offer in the 2’s.
Like Hyman, Campbell wants to explore the market, and he should because he plays for a loser organization. He’ll have no shortage of suitors and like Hyman will probably put himself in a better position to win.
I think they do. Old examples, but CuJo and Hasek come to mind. Kuemper has been available for awhile and just won a Cup (IMO a better measure of performance than save pct in the tourney of small sample sizes). Ullmark just had himself a very good season with Boston. I’d consider Andersen to be upper echelon, in terms of his body of work.
Of course, very good goalies may not come to market often, but mistakes are made on the other end. Is Gibson a value contract? How about Price or goalie Bob?
I’d rather make a 5 million mistake when my other goalie has a cap hit of 750k. No mistake, of course, would be preferable 🙂
Markets for things fluctuate and prices rise and fall based on supply and demand.
There were three decent-bet NHL starters as UFA’s, and with Yzerman snapping up Husso there are now just two. And as many as six or seven teams willing to pay for those two.
I too like to shop for value, but occasionally when I really need something I spend the requisite cash tj get it, especially if the available quantity is finite.
then why isn’t Toronto?
A nitpick, but rumoured ask for Campbell is 5 million / year in an environment in which the cap will almost certainly rise. That deal may “look” like 3 or 4 million near its conclusion.
I would run if Kuemper is asking for 8 million.
5 million doesn’t strike me as a lot for a starting goalie when top attackers and D make 8+. Campbell is the equivalent of paying for a second line forward like Nuge or Hyman. Those guys help you win, too.
These are good points, however the Leafs cap situation is precarious and the Avs as well. Certainly this may influence management’s thinking.
In the case of Andersen, he’s a very good goalie, and Kuemper plus Campbell have also performed well.
True that Cup winners generally develop their own tender, but we’re getting into small sample sizes. Every team has added important players via trade or UFA. Kuemper may not have been great by historic standards, but we are also into an era of decreased save percentages. That’s in the regular season. Volume shooting teams are becoming rare, even at the mid to low range of the playoff bracket.
A .915 save pct is “good” in the regular season. What’s “good” when you’ve played almost half your games against EDM and TBAY? I don’t think you are weighing quality of opponent enough in a tourney of small samples.
LT tweeting about signing Kadri over Kane.
Not a bad idea, not bad at all.
For me, similar to Kane, term is the question as he’s also a player in to his 30s.
Expected salary is also the question. Kadri sounds like he wants to get paid.
the idea, I’m sure is, Kadri plays 2C and Drai 1LW/RW
I said something below that has been bothering me for a few days so now that my neurosis is out in the open I thought I’d bring it to the top and share it with the group 😉 .
I think I probably caught the pathology from one of ON’s guest pundits, but can’t remember for sure… That being, if the Flames don’t sign Gaudreau–and they won’t–they will take a run at Kane. In fact, one might speculate that they low-balled Gaudreau with the intent of leaving open the option of doing so. I can’t think of a team more motivated to sign Kane over the Oilers than the Flames, considering the play-offs.
For that reason, I will state that the Oilers will sign Kane. This is part of the deal with free agency. The contracts in UFA always look bigger than they’re worth, the bidding process more aggressive, because part of what a GM is buying is rivals don’t get to use that weapon back against them.
That said, I don’t know how much the Flames will affect the final price. Should be some for sure, and Milstein is likely to milk it, but at the end of the day Holland asks, “Who are you more likely to win with? Which team’s players have you ever performed better with? What place and room do you know? Calgary’s or Edmonton’s? Remember the difference in the dressing rooms, the facilities? Which team would you really rather play for?”
Holland’s job is to get out of Milstein how much Kane wants it to be the Oilers (or even just winning, you chip away at it like that) and Milstein’s job is not to tell him.
The problem is term.
I played around with Capfriendly and I don’t know how they get up to the 7’s for the Kane signing. Even to get to the 5.5-6 range they have to trade Barrie. (unless I am missing something – completely possible)
Yes, my statement infers more cap space obtained. And I think it is coming.
ah
Sorry, it didn’t fit with the main thrust of the comment. But yes, pretty sure one of Foegele, Barrie or Pujo (hopefully not) is yet to go.
Pretty sure too. Maybe two.
I know and I like every one of those guys, but a plane can’t fly with one wing dragging the dirt. Balance.
(I’ll leave the Pujo thing alone)
Balance probably requires Barrie to be moved. Not sure if that happens this summer or next.
Respect says next.
(and Boosh’s contract)
Money says now.
As you have probably seen me arguing with HH I was convinced that next summer was the time for Holland to go big but then Kassian’s and Keith’s cap hits disappeared miraculously.
I think that moved the time line in spite of the dead cap and incorporating young dmen.
Is Chychrun realistic?
Well, they’d have to have a deep, burning desire for Bison Kings.
I’d say no, given the reputed full acquisition cost. Salary is less of an issue.
We could give them Northlands, I hear they need an arena.
JP, 2023 1st, and Northlands Coliseum to Arizona for Jakob Chychrun.
It may have accelerated the timeline somewhat but the Oilers could never have treated this coming season as another development year.
The clock is ticking on those two big contracts.
At this point though, the D and goaltending are not championship quality so some radical surgery remains.
Not a development year. A year with no cap was the problem.
You might be able to get Kane with just Barrie, but most likely it’s two of Barrie, Foegele, and Puljujarvi to sign Kane.
.
that’s assuming about 5.5 for a goalie. If they fill that spot for cheaper – obviously opens more $ for other spots
More nihilism!
“Teams with good analytics departments (TOR, SEA, CAR, COL, BOS) made some bets on goalies last year. Most of those bets didn’t work out.”
TOR – Andersen (career .915 save pct) and Campbell (career .915 save pct). I think that’s a pretty good record over several years, particularly for a team pressed against the cap.
SEA – Driedger .899 for a horrible team, career .917.
CAR – Andersen (.915 career) and Raanta (.919 career).
COL – Kuemper is one of the best goalies by GSAA over the past few years. Career .917 goalie. Won the cup.
BOS – Ullmark .917 in regular season for Boston, career .913.
These all look like good goalies to me. Outside of Seattle (not sure if they should be put in the group of teams with good analytics/management), all of those teams are very good to excellent.
“Even in CAR, where Andersen seemed to play well, he ended up injured for the playoffs. Ullmark had a good regular season and lasted two games in the playoffs.”
Identifying and procuring talent is one thing; luck is another. No analytics department is going to predict injury. 2 games in the playoffs is a small sample size.
“Kuemper was a small reason the Avs won the Cup. His Sv% in the playoffs, playing for a very strong team, was worse than Mike Smith’s. He let in some stinkers. The Avs won by playing the game exclusively in the other team’s zone when things got tight.”
Survivorship bias. A team that goes all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals will play progressively better, more skilled opponents. Not unreasonable for raw save pct. to drop. Further, I’m not sure how much can be gleaned comparing save pct in the playoffs. Matchups and quality of opponent are different.
Kuemper’s save pct would probably have been ballooned by, for example, playing against the LA kings (who made a habit of shooting from the half board). Even the Flames shoot the puck a ton. Smith never had to face the Lightening, etc.
“Plus, oft-injured Smith played nearly as many games as Kuemper and more than Campbell over the past 3 seasons.”
Smith also showed well by GSAA and save pct. The days of goalies starting 65+ games are long gone. Kuemper has been excellent when he has played; if he played more his price tag would be much higher. Same with Campbell (assuming performance held).
I think Holland is better off saving his dollars on goalie and spending those savings on skaters. This town is very hard on goalies.
Skaters like Duncan Keith? I believe you were on board with that last season. Campbell will cost 5 million (a shade under Keith’s prior cap hit) but the cap will increase. Paying both of your goalies a shade under 6 mil / year is not unreasonable. Kuemper would be nice but the cost dear.
I’m not sure nihilism means what you think it means. 😉
I’m pretty certain that “Nietzsche” rarely means what anyone thinks it does. Almost “never.”
(not dog-piling on Bling here, “nothing” to do with him)
lol
Spending what you suggest on goal tending could severely limit you cap wise! When has the last Cup winner had the most money in the league spent on goal tending. In your scenario you have both getting average starting wage and you can only play one. This akin to paying your number seven D 5.5. Frivolous at best!
Personally, I’m actually a bit opposite George here; I’d be terrified of the high end. How do those goalie Bob and Price contracts looks right now?
Holland says on his big board in his office he has money set aside for a scoring winger, either Kane or someone else. I would love to know what number is there.
5.5? 6?
Kane seems to be unlikely
Who will he sign?
Niedereiter?
Marchment?
Rakell?
Palat?
Copp reportedly wants the Hyman deal
an older option? Giroux, Malkin, Perron?
Giroux and Perron would be ideal on 2 year contracts.
Love Perron, he’s not coming back tho.
As good as Giroux is, there are a lot of good players who start losing effectiveness at age 35. Term might be shorter, but I don’t think he’ll come cheap.
Look at Toews this year and Getzlaf at age 35. Kane is a premier power forward and goal scorer and easily a top 5-10 LW in the NHL right now.
Shannon, I think it was, used Pavelski as a comp in his segment on ON this week. That’s probably an astute (or well-informed) comp for what his agent is seeking. With maybe a small raise considering it has been three years now since Pavelski signed that contract.
So say $7.5M. I think if the term is three years, I’m not sure it takes the Oilers out of the bidding. That be about the ceiling for us though.
Giroux is an excellent player, but IMO 7.5 for his age 35, 36, and 37 seasons is asking for trouble. I’d rather pay 7 for Kane’s age 31, 32, 33, 34 seasons (for instance).
Well if 7.5 is in play 7 is too and this is a buyers market when it comes to miscellaneous forwards this off-season. That said, I’d rather have Kane too.
If we’re playing Calgary would you rather we have Kane and they Giroux, or the other way around?
For me, a Giroux deal (which I’d be excited about), it 2 years max. If he’s already 35 they better structure it back-loaded with no bonuses in year 2 plus – if it happens.
Who would you be out-bidding?
How much would it cost us to buy Sportlogic data for a year?
I’d actually love to know the answer to that.
Schaefer seems like a confident lad
Good trait to own
Maybe Oilers should try and sign Mason Marchment
I’d imagine he is a target
Depending on the price, he could be a very nice fit. Malone currently wears 24 but I’m sure he’d be willing to let Bryan’s son wear it.
I’m intrigued by him. Good season. Less track record than some others but he does some things well that I like. I wonder what his ask is
Probably high, or else Florida would sign him
Looks like they have to move out some salary to sign anyone.
Florida has zero money.
Well, they have 774k in cap space, with 19 players accounted for. They’ll need to shed (or LTIR) someone making $2M+ in order to get to a minimum 21 man roster.
They have Duclair going on LTIR. But yeah, they don’t have enough to sign Marchment.
Holland just has to somehow convince Kane, Weegar, Giroux to go for glory and their 1st Cup on cheap deals with major bonuses for winning the Cup and then they can try for full UFA fun next season.
That has to be in the Guide and Record Book somewhere, right guys? Guys? Anyone?
GeorgeXs.
Everyone here already knows that you and I are good drinking buddies who only fight over who gets to pick up the cheque. I’m buying next week!
While I do agree that I’ve struggled to find year-over-year correlation for GSAX which Woodguy references, I’m also sure that you’re aware that goals saved above average (GSAA) and goals saved above expected (GSAX) are different stats?
https://mobile.twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1234590266029477892?lang=en
Suppose the other Kane wants out of Chicago.
Suppose Chicago lets other teams negotiate with him after tentatively negotiating a deal.
He has earned a lot of money. Conceivably, he might want to play meaningful games than maximize dollars.
Suppose the number he wants on a 3-to-5 year deal is not excessive.
After free agency opens he is extendible.
If PKane is willing to sign for 3-to-5 x $7 million,
Kane (50% retained for this the last year) plus new contract for Puljujarvi and the 2023 1st.
As a fallback plan if EKane goes elsewhere.
Do you do it without a new deal negotiated?
I tend to think Colorado might do Sam Girard for Patrick Kane (50% retained), as a fall back if Kadri is gone.
Or if Tampa cannot sign Palat, maybe Tampa weighs for Kane (50% retained).
Pittsburgh might try doing it.
Then their series of horrific decisions continue.
Suppose I love you
This post is what I have been preaching for weeks now in a more nuanced and detailed manner.
Spend money and long contracts on quality players. Get the ‘good enough’ guys for value on short contracts.
Except goaltending is binary. You either have a goalie who can win you games, or you have ones that are liabilities.
I’d rather pay $7M for a Campbell / Skinner tandem that gives you a guy to shoulder the load and a guy who might be able to step up, as opposed to a Comrie / Skinner tandem that will cost $2M and you’re constantly worried.
You don’t get any points for saving money in the NHL. Getting a proven starter is far more important than adding Nino Niederreiter or hanging onto Barrie.
I don’t believe I ever mentioned Comrie.
Reimer, Allen, maybe Talbot is available. All vets with records you can rely on them to repeat.
Goaltending is not binary. Goalies who played 35 games or more there were 17 of them who had GAA between .910 and .920.
Georgexs is correct. They mostly fall into clusters and the guys who can win you games are not available and very expensive. Spend the money on dmen and forwards.
Except those guys have shown on multiple occasions that they are not NHL starters and what you have to fall back on is a prospect with almost no NHL experience.
Sure if you had a Talbot and Allen you could make it work, but Talbot/Skinner could sink the season
Skinner – 13 games played 2.62 GAA .913 Sv% last season doesn’t scream ‘sink the season’ to me.
Koskinen – 45 games played 3.10 GAA .903 Sv% last season and yet we made the playoffs.
To be fair, Mikko did play materially tougher comp. If I remember correctly, Skinner didn’t get a win against a playoff team.
WIth that said, Skinner is a legit full time NHL player (in my opinion) and will be in the NHL for 82 games. Where he is after that full season is unknown but its not out of realm of possibility that he hits Husso levels – he’s tracking better now than Husso was a year ago.
you are assuming that you have the requisite knowledge to pick the correct individual. As you can see room for error is huge. Very similar to Russian roulette! Fantasy and reality are on opposite ends of the success life line! Easy to say! Cost and quality are not necessarily equal because there is no real fool proof measurement for goalies!
I just listened to the Nielson/Gazzola podcast from today. They have been calling Holland’s move to a pretty good average lately and they both seem certain Campbell is signing with Edmonton on Wednesday.
I’m as well. I just hope that the number is in the 5s and not the 6s
Dubas will do all he can in the next few days to drive up the price.
Hey folks.
Just stumbled across a website and TV app that streams all KHL games for free.
Obviously not a priority right now but checked it out and it features hockey documentaries in a section called Ultimate Hockey Hub.
Lo and behold they have a feature on Nail Yakupov and another featuring Craig Woodcroft.
I dowloaded the app on Roku TV but it’s also available on Apple TV and other platforms.
Sorry…portable.tv
https://en.khl.ru/news/2021/11/25/493120.html
speeds
@hockeysymposium
Replying to @JasonGregor
If the Oilers are spending big money on Kane, they should take that extra step and try to sign Gaudreau.
No thanks.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1542686552287059970
Was this shot just after his growth spurt?
I think he was taller then 🙂
I think Gaudreau starts with a 10 and if Kane wants more than 6 I would walk away
That sure would be something
but I would rather scrap all that and trade for P.Kane with 50% retention
The rumour mill has him sitting on an offer of 9.5M for 8 years from Calgary for over a month. That says to me he has called the movers.
He’s moving to the states. He’s a goner.
I don’t get why they didn’t make him a 11 mil offer. Without him they are screwed
Yep – I wish we could bottle up all the tears of Flames fans next week – it would be like the best champagne.
Tkachuk ain’t signing for less than 10 million.
Without him, they might bid for Kane. In fact, I expect them to.
Only if he grows a pair
Thanks for all your excellent work as always LT. I haven’t been able to keep up with this draft class on my own as much as in normal years as life really found a way to cut itself into my spare time. Kids man, they’re work!
Without your daily content here and at The Athletic, I’d have been completely in the dark this year. Still struggling with how many Top-10s were in this class. I think it’s as low as 6.
Yeah, I think it’s low. I had eight and admit to being the only one who is stone cold convinced on Mateychuk.
Adrian Dater says Ottawa is interested in Darcy Kuemper, who is the top free agent goaltender.
He adds that it would make sense for Colorado to move defenseman Sam Girard to clear cap space. Undersized quick defender signed for the next five years at $5M. Has played both sides.
Lol if Sakic is offering up Girard, run away!
Have to love how in other NHL cities media put out pieces that either aid or at least not impede the value of the town team’s assets. Unlike some of the jackasses here who try their best to sewer their value.
We have our own former-Avs undersized defender at 4.5 million. Hard pass on Girard.
He knows he pumped him full of McKinnon and rantanen minutes and is ready to dump
Your naucks should do the trade for him. hughes for Girard. Sam is much better defensively
JT Miller for Girard … similar cap hits and MIller would fill the hole at 2C for the Avs, when Kadri leaves for greener pastures.
Spending 4 years 5.5 mil per on Kane sure
Spending 7 years 7-8 mil per on Kane heck no
Power forwards don’t age well and especially ones with baggage
I am very curious if a team actually gives him term and money. I doubt it.
I hope not. I was fine with them bringing him in last season, but not long term for big money.
Al: for those of us that are lazy, can you please link your book pre-order? I’m sure most here are in and would appreciate it. Also, asking for a friend with terrible eyesight, audiobook on the horizon?
Here is the link:
https://www.triumphbooks.com/on-the-clock–edmonton-oilers-products-9781629378947.php?page_id=21
I’m going to ask about an audiobook, never thought of it lol.
But who would lend their voice to such a tome? Sam Elliott? Morgan Freeman? Fran Drescher?
Gilbert Godfried
I guess it doesn’t hurt to try and ask Gilbert. I’ll get my shovel.
Oh wow, I had no idea….I saw him on something “relatively”recently, probably related to Norm MacDonalds death, think…
I stay away from social media as much as possible and rarely watch the news.
How about………………….. Pee Wee Herman or Christopher Walken or Nestor Pistor (these guys are still around).
Omg could you imagine? I’d pay good money to hear LTs words come outa his mouth. RIP
Listen to TSN 1260. He has a radio show weekdays.
For a nominal fee, I can record it in any of these Simpsons voices:
Moe
Barney
Grampa (extra fee for throat lozenges)
Jasper
Chief Wiggum
Dr. Nick Riviera
Groundskeeper Willie
Mr. Burns
Dr. Hibbert
Krusty
Mayor Quimby
Get a couple beer in me and I’m a nonstop impression machine. 😀
I here this guy,what’s his name,oh ya,Lowetide has a good radio voice.
What about a former player … who wouldn’t want to hear LTs book read out loud by Mark Messier?
It would have to be MA Pouliot, no?
Ladislav Smid
Done and done, sir. Can’t wait to read it!
Thanks!!
I just checked on Amazon. It says it is the #1 bestseller… in “British Columbia Travel Guides” ??? What? I ordered it anyway
I have been to most places in BC, so should be able to help!!
Have you been to Sooke. Mr McCurdy has.
Yes. We lived in Sidney when I was little.
We have 4 traffic lights a roundy bout and 2 Tim Hortons. You probably wouldn’t recognize it now. 😂😂😂
Those roundabouts are pretty cool!
They work great for sure. Not as crazy as the 2 lane traffic circles Mayor Dent brought in though.
Overview
An insider history of the Edmonton Oilers at the NFL draftA singular, transcendent talent can change the fortunes of a hockey team instantly. Each year, NHL teams approach the draft with this knowledge, hoping that luck will be on their side and that their extensive scouting and analysis will pay off. In On the Clock: Edmonton Oilers, Allan Mitchell explores the fascinating, rollercoaster history of the Oilers at the draft, from first pick Kevin Lowe through Connor McDavid and beyond. Readers will go behind the scenes with top decision-makers as they evaluate, deliberate, and ultimately make the picks they hope will tip the fate of their franchise toward success. From seemingly surefire first-rounders to surprising late selections, this is a must-read for Oilers faithful and hockey fans eager for a glimpse at how teams are built.
I wonder how many of your books will be gifts to Houston Oilers fans. 😀😀
Lisowski went in the 7th round to the leafs? wow, I thought he was a decent player that should go in 3rd or 4th. Might be a good pick for them.
Anybody know what the story is on Colin White. Is he a reclamation project on a low cap hit worth pursuing?
All depends on how low the cap hit ends up.
As a player, I like him. He seemed to have poor results playing effective hockey after coming back from injury. His line got dismantled at the deadline with Paul going to TB and Sanford to Winnipeg.
He was used a lot more in an offensive role and didn’t kill penalties, so he wouldn’t be used in the same capacity here as he was in Ottawa. The fact that he’s had some success in that role in the past makes me wonder if he’d be amiable to a role adjustment.
I still feel that Brown is the best target from last year’s Sens squad
Thanks. I wasn’t thinking of him as a top end kind of guy. Just wondering if he might be looking for a fresh start and willing to sign a low cost contract to get his career back on track. The team needs to fix the bottom end of their forward lines.
He’d be a 4th line centre on the Oilers … I would imagine he would be looking for a team with poor centre depth. Maybe he could play on the wing?
It sounds like the Hawks aren’t going to tender Strome a contract … that’s who I’m looking to sign on a 1 year deal as a reclamation project. Let him work with his bud Connor for year … he can get the Kane pump and dump.
That works for me as well. I was looking at White because he is available today.
Strategic Overpay
Having lots of cap space is valuable but only if you use it. The value of Moneypuck players and high-performing ELC players is they facilitate a GM’s ability to spend money to address an area of specific need.
In a competitive market with limited options (like this year’s goalie market), it’s perhaps not unwise to “overspend” on the right or the best player … provided the term is in line.
How much money would it take to get Kuemper or Campbell with the term limited to three years?
I think Yzerman made a good bet with Husso, and similarly Holland needs to identify the guy that can help the Oilers win a cup and use his cap space to make it happen. I honestly won’t mind the cap number as long as the contract terminates by the time McDavid’s contract comes up.
Sure as the sun will come up, people will bitch and whine. But we need a goalie and I don’t expect it to be economical.
The Hockey Writers, pointing to three possible targets for Oilers D.
MacKenzie Weegar.
Jakob Chychrun
Travis Sanheim
I would pay a lot and do unspeakable things to get Weegar on this team.
I could help!
With Keith gone, the list of prospects I would not trade to get Chychrun starts and ends with Holloway. Anyone else is fair game.
That’s the trade you make to get Cups.
Broberg and next year’s 1st and what else would it take?
With Kassian gone for picks & Keith’s retirement the cap available moves this team’s time line to go for it up a year imo.
Broberg and 2 first round picks for Chychrun I’d imagine. Maybe Jesse or Bourgault, plus Broberg and a 1st.
Question: would you rather trade that package for Chychrun or Hellybuyck?
If it’s the latter, then maybe the play this summer is to sign Eric Comrie … he could then be sent back to Winnipeg in a package if Chevy decides to blow things up.
Also I think Broberg will be more valuable after he’s played 3LD for half a season in the NHL. That might bring the cost down.
If Broberg, Jesse and the first could do it I would pull the trigger. I am less enamored of name goalies than pretty much everybody else on this board. Allen from Montreal would be fine with me. Reimer, Talbot – any of the short term solutions. I would rather spend on solid defence and goal scoring.
If Giroux is really an option I would also go after Rakell. That makes a pretty good looking forward group within budget.
All of a sudden Holland has a budget.
Question: would you rather trade that package for Chychrun or Hellybuyck?
I was going to ask the same question to the hivemind.
For me, it’s Hellebuyck, without question. Not even close. Hellebuyck is Top 3 at the league’s most important position. I think Helly instantly puts us in conversation with the league’s top teams. I don’t think Chychrun does that, much as I like the player.
Arizona has been holding out for 4 assets but may have softened their position.
Apparently they had talks with Montreal that involved the Habs 1st round pick, Alexander Romanov and another good prospect.
However, the Habs pick was 1st overall so very likely the Oilers would need to add significantly since their pick will be much lower.
So, perhaps back to 4 assets.
Pretty sure those talks involved a lot of laughter on the Montreal side of the phone … followed by “psych” before quickly hanging up.
Kyle Dubas always seems to find a way to rise above my expectations.
I think if Dubas misses out on Kuemper, he goes hard after John Gibson.
He’s so close to 2nd round glory; He can taste it.
#WillingToPay
Dustin Nielson
@nielsonTSN1260
·
26m
“Sounds like Kane is asking for BIG bucks, 6 or 7 million might not be enough” – Tommy G on the Oil Stream right now.
Can’t see anyone offering $8 mil but if Flames lose Johnny who knows????
I like what Kane did on the Oilers next season but somehow I don’t see him being quite as successful on a Gaudreau-less flames (and maybe Tkachuck-less) and I’d be very happy to see them sign Kane for term for $2MM-$3MM less than what Gaudreau was likely going to make.
Time to move on then. I started to lose interest at anything over $5.5M.
I could go a bit higher if the terms was 3 years or less but, if these reports are accurate, sail on.
He looks to still be priming but the man is turning 31….
No surprise. None. he was going to be $7m right out fo the gate. So $8m to the right bidder seems possible/likely.
Problem for Kane is whether anyone will still have that kind of cap space once the dust clears from the first day or free agency and after his arbitration hearing is over? I guess he may just sign with a non-contender still flush with cap space … but why would a team not in contention want to sign him for the kind of money and term that he is looking for.
if his original contract is not reinstated, then I can see him taking another 1 year deal if the market squeezes him out.
It is a weird situation. If he wins he is back on his 3 year at $7M contract with SJ which rumour has it is not enough for what he wants this summer.
If he loses he is in the same position he would have been in had he not filed a grievance and would be available to sign with a new team on the first day of free agency.
I’m sure this all makes sense to Kane somehow.
The whole situation is bizarre. His career pts/gm is 0.67 and g/gm of 0.35. Both numbers are good but not elite. He is also 31. Plus, he has baggage.
I would be shocked if a team gave him more than what he is owed by the Sharks. Who would give him term longer than three years at this point?
Of course this is not a man with a history of good decision making skills off of the ice so I am sure he has his reasons.
So Kane’s logic is that he scored like he’s never scored before WITH the world’s best player and he wants more than he’s ever been paid to play WITHOUT the world’s best player? As the Aussies say, “yeah mate, nah.”
Yep – time to move on. We always knew that this was just a fling.
Can anyone explain why there seems to be smoke around Florida defenseman MacKenzie Uyghur?
This guy is a top-echelon Dman. Why would the Panthers have any interest in trading him?
Your auto correct is on fire today. Well done … don’t edit that!
Being persecuted by China doesn’t help.
I think he gets a little uyghur every season too. Would be a good get.
He’s one year away from UFA … they’re just testing the market. I doubt he moves as Florida is in a win now window.
Mackenzie Weegar represents the day I stopped being an analytics luddite.
I wanted to get up to speed on Woodmoneys. WG patiently walked me through the process to best mine that data. I put his process to work and lo and behold it uncovered Weegar as a relatively unknown D at the time who was pushing the river. I mentioned him to Woodguy who promptly ran his WOWYs with Ekblad and said something along the lines of, “Wow there’s a player here. I’m going to drill into this deeper.” That’s as close as he gets to praise for the python query challenged. 😉
My lone pro scouting highlight in a lifetime of prognostication! He’ll always be a hard target for me for that reason.
Serious problems for Kiril Kaprizov?
Minnesota Wild star winger Kirill Kaprizov was reportedly turned away twice from returning to the United States amid a delicate political situation currently unfolding.
According to Michael Russo of The Athletic, citing league sources, Kaprizov remains in Russia after he was denied entry to America on two different occasions. Russo explained that the young forward attempted to return to the United States via a Dubai layover, but was not cleared to enter. He then tried gaining entry by way of the Caribbean Islands, but was denied entry once again.
“He couldn’t clear into the U.S., though, perhaps because he doesn’t currently have a work visa despite signing a five-year contract last September,” Russo wrote.
“It’s scary. It’s scary for all of us,” head coach Dean Evason told The Athletic. “It’s a scary situation in our world. To see somebody as close as we know Kirill, yeah, it’s a scary situation. And we hope that it all gets sorted out correctly.”
I wonder why he doesn’t just go to a 3rd country while waiting to sort out his US visa, if that is in fact his problem. Seems like a simple solution.
I doubt that they have much off season training for hockey players in Dubai. Russians aren’t exactly welcome right now in the EU either. He doesn’t have a lot of options. But yes … the young man should really just chill in Dubai until his Visa gets cleared … there are more important things for him to worry about than off season training
There are at least 12 ice rinks in Dubai. Many ex-pats I know have played in hockey leagues there. With the kind of money in Dubai, many things are possible.
Rinks aren’t the same thing as dedicated off season training centres for pro hockey players.
West Edmonton Mall has a tidal pool .. that doesn’t mean that it’s a first class training centre for surfing.
Have you ever been to Dubai? There isn’t a leisure/sports activity facility Emirates haven’t built and most are state of the art. The UAE has a professional hockey league sanctioned by the IIHF and the Dubai team plays in a new multi-purpose 17,000 seat arena.
Maybe he might not have a lot of other NHL level pros to train with like if he went to Gary Roberts in Ontario, but I think I could comfortably say the facilities he’d have access to are likely be better than whatever he has access to back in Russia.
I lived for a year in Dubai … granted it was five years ago, and that place changes so rapidly. NHL skaters want to train with NHL skaters … I know that Dubai is able to provide first class facilities, but you can’t just create an NHL level developmental program at the drop of a hat. That requires expertise.
Though with the way things are going these days, and with the number of Russian ex-pats growing filthy there now, maybe now is as good a time as any to get things started there.
Nothing in Russia is simple except a simple-minded Peeutin! Heavy suspicion throughout their entirety!
Again, I mentioned this possibility months ago.
A bit of background. In October 2019 a client of my then wife had to pick a dog up in Moscow. She tried to get some people to go over but they could not get an entry visa. I said I would give it a try and got a visa in two days. When I went to the consulate to pick up the visa I mentioned this and they said it was because I am Canadian. She said they had problems giving visas to US citizens given the “troubles between our countries”. That was in 2019, Trump was president and buddies with Putin. I can only imagine it is currently worse.
UberCoyote, FindMyWyleCoyote?
Seems current management/scouting is putting a premium on the big/rugged d-man – which adds to the current prospects at that position that have that description.
At the pro level I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barrie out / Gudbrandson in. More Rickibox.
Prior to last season both Gudbranson and Zadorov were considered to be a couple of pylons. Then the Flames went on an unsustainable heater and their value got pumped up. In the playoffs they were exposed for the pylons they are by the faster and more skilled Oilers.
I’m hoping for (1) Gaudreau to sign elsewhere, followed by (2) the Flames panicking and signing those two pylons for too much $$ and term.
I think it was EliteProspects, but I can’t be sure but, in any event, one of the scouting reports posited a very high floor as an NHL player for this guy – I liked reading that.
Also, the dispersal of goals mentioned (21 at evens, 9 on PP and 2 on the kill) shows a depth of skills – potentially many ways to make the NHL.
I also like the fact that he seems to be a late bloomer and reports are active improvement in certain important NHL skills (i.e. his shot) an the kid is focussed on skating this off-season.
Also, this was his rookie WHL season (as mentioned) and, given the 2nd half pop, that is heartening.
If we are thinking Maroon, lets remember, it took him a LONG time to “make it” and here is hoping this prospect gets the time from the fanbase that he likely will require.
Lol OP – the Oilers Twitterverse will be pencilling him to the lineup for next season. Who the hell cares what the fan base thinks … the only thing that matters is for Oilers management to give this player the time and instruction needed to develop into a solid NHL player. The Oilers have been much better about this under Holland.
I would not be surprised if Holloway started next season in the AHL either … Holland’s going to get him some competition in the summer … he’ll have to blow the doors off to impress in training camp.
I think the only way Holloway ends up in the A is if Foegele is still around. Probably not a great idea to have him playing 5 minutes a game on the 4th line with no special teams time.
Yep – he should have to beat out Foegele … if he can’t then the best place for him would be to continue to develop in the AHL
Holloway could start in the AHL, I don’t disagree.
At the same time, the lineup will need some cheap value contracts and, from my AHL viewings, he looks as ready as can be and, from what we know if his character, I presume he’s working his ass off this summer.
Interesting that Dubas the advanced stat guy is looking at Murray and Talbot
“Dubas has been active in gauging his alternative options on the trade market — inquiring on Ottawa’s Matt Murray and Minnesota’s Cam Talbot, among others — but he made Campbell sound like the first priority before leaving the Bell Centre.”
You could say he’s trying to save money but looking at Woodguys stats you wouldn’t want those goalies. Who’s right?
https://www.northstarbets.ca/sportsbook/insights#news/article/nhl-draft-week-rumblings-leafs-oilers
Looking for the best of a less than stellar bunch. It’s good negotiating to make it look like you have options even if you know you don’t really have any.
Are we speaking of the Oilers?
Of everybody who has ever had to negotiate. 😉
Trades and signings I hope for.
Trade Barrie for Connor Brown
Trade Jesse for someone who doesn’t suck but is cheaper and probably a 3/4th liner (sadness)
Cap space now $22.5 million
Sign
Kulak 4 X $2.75 m
Giroux 3 X $5 m
Sign Dylan Strome 3 X $4 m
Sign Yamamoto 2 X $3 m
Sign Campbell 4 X $4.75 m
$3 million left over to fill out 3RD and depth coke machine they will surely sign.
Strome-McDavid-Giroux
Hyman-Draisatl-Brown
McLeod-Nuge-Yamamoto
Foegele-Holloway-Ryan
That is a freakin solid forward group with speed, enough size and depth that can keep up with Colorado.
Who would be a solid 3rd liner with some physical bite to acquire in place of JP?
Is anyone going to sit in at Development Camp?
my son and I are planning to go to the tournament- I was just looking at the prospects from the other teams.
You are referring to the Young Starts Tournament in Penticton in September (I plan to go, as well), I meant the Prospect Development Camp that will take take place in a few days at probably the Rogers Place Community Rink…..
Kings sign Adrian Kempe….4 years $22 million.
Nice signing.
A bargain for a 35 goal scorer with rocket skates.
And no interest in defense
That’s odd.
Kempe spent more than 105 minutes on the PK and scored 3 short handed goals with a huge ratio on D zone starts.
It would seem the LA coaching staff counts on him on both sides of the puck.
But, of course, you would know better than them.
105 minutes over 82 games isn’t that much. And just because you pk doesn’t mean you are good at it.
That’s odd, there’s actual numbers to back this up. 8% EV d, 24% pk.
https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1545559499641012224?s=21&t=lE2X-M0X7H2oxCJVUakEnA
but of course you would know better because he’s not an Oilers signing
From Evolving Hockey: “He has a really even spread among different term probabilities, but the model thinks a five-year deal is most likely.”
Their model examined term ranging from four years to eight years, plus AAV and the likelihood, percentage-wise, of each possibility.
This bodes well for signing JP and Yamo.
I’ve said many times – being a good defensive player and being a good PK guy are not equatable.
What’s with the picture?
Moving forward?
Rearview mirror?
Stormy weather?
That radio dial better be tuned to 1260.
No left turns?
Stay in your lane?
Ray of sunshine in a sea of clouds?
driving a player to the airport?
Ding! Ding! Ding!
If it’s not this, it should be!
Only question is, Is Jaffa in the back seat?
Lots of talk about available goalies (I join WG in feeling unenthused about the Campbell option).
But who do you have as 2LD? Tough to go short-term with a quality option, but if you have Kulak and Broberg on that side, I’m not convinced you’re looking for a long-term solution. Not sure what Manson’s appetite for having Broberg start on his off-wing will be, either.
I gotta say, with a progressive coach in place and some kind of pro-scouting revolution underway, this is the most optimistic I’ve felt about the team in ages. (And as soon as I write this they’ll trade Pujuljarvi for Matt Murray and torpedo the season).
I’m wondering about 2LD as well
I still like Soucy as a target (established player, short term contract)
Sign Kulak at 4 x $2.5M
Nurse – Ceci
Soucy $2.75 – Bouchard
Kulak $2.5 – Barrie
Broberg
I get that goalie is the priority, but I think we need to backfill that 2LD position
That leaves room for Broberg to establish himself as the Soucy contract falls away
Wheeler ranks Day Two winners and losers.
https://theathletic.com/3401435/2022/07/08/nhl-draft-day-2-winners-losers/?source=user_shared_article
Is Kulak 2LHD? I don’t think so? If he is our 2LHD the pairings need an adjustment?
Only 1 of those is a question…
As for Kulak being a 2LD, I don’t see why we wouldn’t think so. He’s been Petry’s main defence partner in Montreal, which was largely the 2nd pairing if not the top pair depending on how you decide such things. Last season Petry played more with Edmundson, but largely he was with Kulak.
Kulak-Barrie was our 3rd pairing after the deadline, but the play of the 3D (including that of Barrie) significantly improved after he was placed there. And he did spend some time filling in on the top pairing when Nurse was out, and it still performed as it should. We could not say the same when it was Barrie moving to Nurse’s pair, so it’s not a matter of Barrie carrying him.
Do we need to adjust the pairings if Kulak is 2LD? Might not be a bad idea. Bouchard spent more time with Nurse at ES last year and they were a very good pairing for the most part.
Then again, with possibly having 2 rookie defensemen breaking into the league at the same time and having 3 centers capable of playing top line minutes, I would be in favour of 11-7 being our primary configuration.
My counter would be that Kulak won’t be playing with a “Petry” on the 2nd lair in Edmonton.
Or will he?…..hmmmmm
So then he won’t have to cover up for the number of dreadful giveaways that are a staple in Petry’s game. Led the league this past season for defenseman in giveaways 107, and giveaways per 60 (for any defenseman playing more than 4 games) at 4.26. And this past season was not an anomaly. Since they have kept the stat in 05/06, he is the all time leader among defenseman who have played more that 100 games, at 3.35 giveaways per 60 and 2nd place is back quite a bit at 3.01. He is fifth in total giveaways all time, only because the others have play at least 200 more games and he will pass all but Burns (who has played 400 games more than him) in the first few weeks of this next season.
Puck carrying defenders will always be higher on this list, but there is no way Jeff Petry should ever be in the company of guys like Burns, Doughty, Karlsson, and Carlson in terms of total giveaways as the reward from those players offensively is close to double Petry’s and seemingly with less downside.
He may do a lot of other things well, but responsibly managing the puck on his stick is not one of them. I watched a lot of his games with Edmonton and Montreal and his giveaways always seemed to happen at a bad time (both based on location and game state), and a lot of goals against resulted.
Very interesting draft for a team that only had 4 picks.
Don’t know much about Schaefer but I did see him good in the series against the Oil Kings.
It was painful to add those sweeteners to the Kassian trade, but necessary. That contract had to go. Kassian was never the same player after signing the big contract and the Tkachuk incident. Don’t know if he lost interest or the injuries just started to take their toll. Looks to me like the skills are still there, but the will is not.
Still shocked by the Keith retirement, despite the recent rumors. I was way wrong on that one. I know posters are happy about the cap space, but it does leave a pretty big hole at 2LD. Kulak MIGHT be able to fill it, but a left side of Nurse/Kulak/Broberg feels a little light. It might work out, and it does leave more cap space for goaltending and scoring wingers.
So when the smoke clears the Oilers have 20 million in cap space. That’s great, IF they spend it wisely. I am nervous they are going to lock themselves into bad long term contracts for Kane and Kuemper/Campbell. I would prefer cheaper bets with less term, like Burakosky and Reimer.
The really fast and quick teams exposed Keith last year. Keith knows it. He gets to leave on a relative high. The head and hands are there, but the legs no longer comply.
If the powers that be in leaf land are well aware that JC is going to test the goalie market for sure then would it not be wise to offer his rights for a song (in hopes edmonton answer with a late pick) this would lessen the playing field for dumbass to go after kuemper and possibly lower the ask with only Tdot and Washington in play…just a thought
Nah, don’t pay assets for the right to sign a long term (4-5 years) risky contract.
Use some light assets to acquire one of 4 one-year stop gap options, each of which could very well be better the Campbell in any given year (no surety but the gap is not great and tenders vary by season).
We are in full agreement on this one. Crappy long term contracts hurt a team more than average play. Spend the money on quality dmen or wingers and wait for the quality goalie to appear. There is no reason why Skinner can’t be that guy. He has as much chance as any of the available UFA options imo.
I’m not sure Skinner ha as good a chance – he may pop and get there but we don’t know.
I do think that Reimer, Talbot, Allen have almost just as good a chance with MUCH less risk and the added benefit of seeing where Skinner is after a full year in the league.
As someone who grew up on a farm before becoming a ‘city slicker,’ I’ve always enjoyed the Sun/Moon bookends of your draft coverage LT. Top shelf work as always. So many folks today are losing their connection to nature in favour of a digital world, I love the gentle reminders these post titles convey.
These days I also find your phrase, “We don’t know what we don’t know,”resonating with me.
With both Keith and Smith anticipated to go off the books this season, I’m wondering did the Dutchman get lucky here or particularly with Keith, is this something he knew all along? So much drama, bandwidth, bile and criticism expended on things like the cost of the Keith acquisition only to find much of it rendered moot. It makes me wonder what are we doing here exactly?
You’ve mentioned how this community is kind of in transition at the moment, no longer breaking new ground on the analytics side although this could change if the NHL were to open up their big datasets. For me, it seems best to focus more on the empirical knowns (contract terms, player production, coaching tactics) and less on the unknowns (internal dynamics, market conditions, trade scenarios). But that supposes we actually need to accomplish anything of merit as a collective. This is entertainment after all and often it’s sufficient to just have a place to shoot the shit.
Thanks as always for your dedication in building this 21st century hot stove. I treasure pieces of true Canadiana like this more with every passing year. In the HHOF categories, you would be a builder Allan and these folks are often the most influential of all. Now in terms of community accomplishments, let’s make this book a bestseller!
Here here! 100% BoP!
Sums up my feelings completely.
I was not born on a farm but in Olds AB. Spent summers on my grandparents farm in southern Sask (Mossbank). Used to lie in the pastures watching the Snowbirds practice out of CFB Mouse Jaw. Simpler times.
My parents never had to tell me to go outside. There was literally nothing better to do and no better place to be!
Good ol’ Mossbank, a.k.a. The Gateway to Ardill.
One of my friends used to live in Mossbank until he moved to my hometown. I bet he’d remember your grandparents.
#SixDegreesOfSaskatchewan
Christ and Mary Larson. My cousin now owns the farm, Barry Hicks. Farm has been in the family since 1912.
Also, spent many afternoons waiting for the grain to grow in the Ardill Saloon! It’s still there, official population of Ardill today, zero!
I don’t think it’s open anymore, unless someone re-opened it in the past couple of years.
The wyf and I went there on our way back from Moose Jaw once a few years ago. Good wings and perogies too!
(I love these tiny villages that still have a tavern and can serve up some good grub. Three such examples here in Sask: Hazenmore, Fife Lake and White Bear.)
Well the bar in Mossbank is decent as well. Very small. Pool table almost fills the room!
Some of the greatest players in NHL history were the direct result of bailing hay and picking rocks.
LT is a modern day farmer of sorts; Harvesting data picking prospects.
In my final days of living on the farm, I would go out with my school buddies on a Friday or Saturday night and get thoroughly blasted. The next morning my Dad would get me out of bed bright and early to pick rocks all morning in the hot sun OR volunteer me to go help our neighbour with cheap labour on his sod farm. It was his not so subtle reminder that work waits for no man. If I had to work like that now with a hangover, it would kill me in seconds flat.
It was then I knew that I had to get the hell off that farm! lol
Sounds like you fought the law (dad) and the law won.
#BreakingRocksInTheHotSun
Ain’t that the truth!
Bobby Hull pitching hay photos are classic.
One amusing farming anecdote. My wife grew up in the city so she’d never heard of rapeseed. I think the breeding journey to canola had been travelled by the time we met. Anyhoo, I told her about it and now whenever we’re driving in the country and we pass a telltale field of yellow she laughs and says to me. “Another rape field. Don’t be getting any ideas!”
Take the Canola; Leave the Pun
Wins thread!
That’s gold Jerry, gold!
Tisdale, SK used to have a sign that read “Wrlcome to Tisdale. Land of rape and honey”.
Wonder if Tisdale was the reason Ministry made this little diddy…:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cfzszFHmcw
Thanks Boys!
Doubles as a sort of tribute to Buddy the Elf’s Dad.
Forsberg signs for 8x$8.5 million in Nashville.
Worth noting he’s moving to the Rogle U20 team for next season, who were far better than Brynas where he played this year (though even with a better record, their two main goalies posted .900 and .868 SV%s, so who knows what’s in store for Jonsson!).
This is probably wishful thinking, but I put this on Twitter the other day:
My theory about Puljujarvi is that the Oilers are acting like they’re making an attempt to trade him. When that “attempt” is unsuccessful, they hope he’ll accept a third line role.
I also believe Puljujarvi will end up staying. If he does start on the third line, he won’t be there for long.
concur:)
That’s a very likely scenario and what I believe will happen as well.
Jesse played the vast majority of time in the top 6 last season.
Currently there are zero RWs signed.
Jesse will have a top 6 spot all year if he earns it and he knows he can – he played in the top 6 almost exclusively over the term of his 2-year contract.
I hope you’re right; I fear you’re wrong
It crossed my mind as well given Holland’s history with this player.
There is nothing wrong with playing on a third line that is centred by Nuge and has a young bull like Holloway patrolling the left wing. In fact I think it would be a huge benefit to Puljujarvi to get him on a line where he could emerge as the driver.
The ‘top six’ idea is a dying concept in today’s NHL. Top eight teams are built on top ‘nines’ imo and that could happen as early as this year with the Oilers if they spend their money wisely and avoid the ‘goalie trap’ of going big on iffy UFA’s and focus on forwards and shoring up the dmen.
— I realize with reflection that the “moves” that Holland made which helped the team big time, ie the cap space of Kassian and Keith. One can imagine in a parallel universe, had he spent that $9mm properly on different players over the course of last 2 years, we’d be in way better shape
— I have to him give him the benefit of the doubt: Keith’s retirement certainly was some of the “consideration” as part of the overpay.
— Let’s hope that he’s learned what is needed and the next iteration of this 9mm plus the extra cap is used judiciously.
— Done properly the Oil should be in the position to be the favourite on paper starting next season
And you didn’t even mention he was picked at the exact spot you had him ranked!
The kid does look like he has real nice hands and scoring ability in addition to ‘big’ and ‘sandpaper’.
I Iike that he provides a skillset unique to the other talented fwds in our pipeline, but does not seem to lack actual skill either. A coke machine Moroz pick this is not.
A not over-drafted Lawson Crouse perhaps.
Needs to improve his skating.
Yes and he knows that and its a focus this off-season.
Harvest Moon, while one of my least favourite Neil Young records (I’m a huge fan of his overall), is my favourite post of the year. Thank you as always LT, happy the draft coverage was abbreviated this year due to post season success and hopeful for the same in the future!
As for the draft:
Schaefer was in a cluster of a few guys I liked at 32 (along with Beck and Firkus) so I’m good with it. His shot, physicality and defensive IQ stand out in most reports on him and his skating “concerns” seem to focus more around explosiveness and less around technique, which we have seen can more easily come with time and hard work. Given the reports of his attitude and work ethic, this should not be a major concern.
With the others, wish I had more info to share. Big Swedish goalie never seems like a poor proposition, it is heartening he is on a much stronger team in Rogle this year who also have the best logo in the business. As I believe JP noted, yesterday, Yevseyev played more than any other underage D in the VHL so that is an early + sign. With Matta, I think the Woodcroft connection and subsequent viewings at Vermont certainly helped, as did the apparently excellent 2 game stretch at the WJC where he had 3 pts for the Fins. I guess we could see him again in August along with Borg and Munzenberger which is exciting.
I may have preferred the safer route of Havelid or Reid Dyck, then Jace Weir and Kocha Delic with those last 3 picks but this scouting staff has earned the benefit of the doubt over the last few yrs and I’m looking forward to following these distant bells along with Schaefer!
Lol, I had no idea tha Rogle logo was so close to the Oilers logo. Thanks for that!