The Department of Youth

I used to do ‘reasonable expectations’ estimates for the minor leaguers. Can you believe that? I didn’t sleep much in the first 10 years after G7 SCF 2006, so would occupy my time running numbers and staring at the past provided by hockeydb.

Here’s what I wrote about Jordan Eberle on the eve of his first training camp: “The organization may handle Eberle differently, having him stay in the minors for an entire season before moving along to the NHL. If they do, I think it is reasonable to expect him to post a superior ppg number (close to or better than 1/1) based on his AHL totals as a teenager (23 points in 20 games). I also think it’s reasonable to suggest he plays fewer than 30 games in the AHL next season and is called to the show in early 2011.”

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Father’s Day Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Jay Woodcroft returning to coach AHL Condors and be reunited with Ken Holland
  • Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
  • Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanQ&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
  • Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
  • Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
  • Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
  • LowetideHard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
  • Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?

WOODCROFT’S FINE WORK

I like to monitor rookie crops, for me that’s one of the most important roles for the AHL coach. Jay Woodcroft had a nice crop this season, and he got a lot from them. That’s the job, the absolute point of the entire project. Developing NHL players in the AHL is something Jay Woodcroft apparently does well and there’s a chance he’s doing this work as a pay it forward to himself. If things trend in a good way, he could be the Oilers head coach down the line. You have to give most of the credit to the player, but Woodcroft’s kids flourished and we given ample playing time. Here are the rookies:

1 LW Tyler Benson (68, 15-51-66) A strong AHL season at 20 for an Oilers forward draft pick is about as rare as a playoff appearance for the parent team. Benson was quality in his first pro season, delivering deft passes and delivering results. A goal-scoring slump early in the year was corrected by 10 goals in his final 25 games. He has a clear shot at the NHL this fall.

2 RC Cooper Marody (58, 19-45-64) Marody has NHL hands, the only question surrounding his ability to flourish in the world’s best league is his boots. Not every player has to be a fast train, Marody could be one of the RH pieces on an Edmonton power play by this fall.

3 RD Logan Day (64, 7-27-34) Chaos blue can make plays and elevated the Condors power play (3-8-11, tied for second among Bakersfield blue). He has the skill required to push to the next level. The defensive part of the game needs to get tied down.

4 W Cameron Hebig (64, 11-18-29). A right shot deployed on the opposite wing at times during the season, Hebig started the campaign like a house on fire. In fact, in his first 10 games, Hebig scored 6-6-12. He was used in a complementary role afterward, but could emerge this fall as a feature player. He can score goals.

5 RW Kailer Yamamoto (27, 10-8-18). It was a disappointing season for the first-round draft pick (2017), but it’s important to point out he would have easily cleared 20 goals in a complete season (based on trajectory). He should have eclipsed Benson’s season total for points, but NHL time and a wrist injury caught him. Yamamoto will need to have a strong year in 2019-20.

6 RC Tyler Vesel (61, 5-13-18). College player arrived in Bakersfield and landed a support role on a (mostly) checking line. His shooting percentage (five percent on 100 shots) should improve next season, and he had an impact on both special teams in college. Has a range of skills.

7 G Shane Starrett (42, 2.33 .918). Along with Benson and Marody, Starrett would have to receive strong consideration for Bakersfield’s top rookie. Al Montoya’s injury gave him the chance and Starrett ran away with the job. He is in a solid spot to become Bakersfield’s starter next year, meaning a recall is just an injury or a slump away.

8 G Dylan Wells (12, 2.84 .909). It’s easy to overlook Wells’ season, but he survived and posted respectable numbers. He had a .912 SP in Wichita (ECHL) in 22 games. A solid debut.

9 G Stuart Skinner (6, 2.99 .879). Too small a sample size to draw conclusions, Skinner played a lot with Wichita of the ECHL (41, 3.16 .903) this season. He was the No. 3 goalie among the rookies, but his playoff performance was impressive.

PENNANTS!

I have argued for many years that the NHL should reward SC finalists by making them pennant winners—ala mlb. Back in the original six era, winning a Stanley Cup was fairly achievable, especially if you could hang around for a decade or play for one of the Canadian teams (or Detroit). Modern era? 31 teams, draft, it’s insane. The 2006 Edmonton Oilers won a pennant, so did Jarome Iginla and Trevor Linden and Craig Ramsay and Brad Park and Keith Magnuson and Brian Propp (well, he won a lot of them before the Oilers positively skewered him every spring). Pennant winners: It’s the right thing to do.

1 Montreal (11): ’68, ’69, ’71, ’73, ’76-’79, ’86, ’89, ’93
2 Boston (10): ’70, ’72, ’74, ’77, ’78, ’88, ’90, ’11, ’13, ’19
3 Philadelphia (8): ’74, ’75, ’76, ’80, ’85, ’87, ’97, ’10
4 Edmonton (7): ’83, ’84, ’85, ’87, ’88, ’90, ’06
5 Pittsburgh (6): ’91, ’92, ’08, ’09, ’16, ’17

6 Chicago (6): ’71, ’73, ’92, ’10, ’13, ’15
7 Detroit (6): ’95, ’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ’09
8 New Jersey (5): ’95, ’00, ’01, ’03, ’12
9 New York Islanders (5): ’80, ’81, ’82, ’83, ’84
10 St. Louis (4): ’68, ’69, ’70, ’19
11 New York Rangers (4): ’72, ’79, ’94, ’14
12 Dallas (4): ’81, ’91, ’99, ’00
13 Los Angeles (3): ’93, ’12, ’14
14 Calgary (3): ’86, ’89, ’04
15 Vancouver (3): ’82, ’94, ’11

16 Tampa Bay (2): ’04, ’15
17 Washington (2): ’98, ’18
18 Anaheim (2): ’03, ’07
19 Buffalo (2): ’75, ’99
20 Carolina (2): ’02, ’06
21 Colorado (2): ’96, ’01
22 Vegas (1): ’18
23 Nashville (1): ’17
24 San Jose (1): ’16
25 Florida (1): ’96
26 Ottawa (1): ’07

Winnipeg, Columbus, Minnesota, Arizona and Toronto are still on the outside looking in.

OILERS FIRST MINOR LEAGUE ROOKIE CROP, 1979

A long time ago when the earth was green, the Oilers minor league team was in the Central Hockey League and called the Houston Apollos. Al Rollins, a famous NHL goalie who coaches the Phoenix Roadrunners of the WHA for one season, was the coach. Here are the significant rookies, year one:

RC Mike Toal 76, 31-45-76. Led the Apollos in scoring at 20, and was recalled for a three-game look in the NHL. He had a short career, final season ’81-82. If I recall correctly, he was the recall when Mark Messier was banished to the minors for going to the wrong airport.

LD Charlie Huddy 79, 14-34-48. Huddy was in the NHL for good by 1982, and hung around for the good times. A splendid two-way defenseman, he scored 20 points in 18 playoff games 1985. A stunning find.

RW Cal Roadhouse 72, 17-24-41. One of the better names for Oilers prospects over the years, former WHL winger showed promise but injured his knee in 1981-82 and never did get back to normal.

LW Mike Kouwenhoven 29, 4-13-17. I don’t remember him but he did play for the Netherlands at the 1981 World Hockey Championships.

RW Kari Makkonen 16, 5-5-10. Finn also played a little in the NHL in ’79-80, I think he would have found his way to the NHL if he’d stuck around. Back in Finland, he was an outstanding player through 1991.

Old Al Rollins didn’t last, the next coach for the Oilers minor league system was Garnet “Ace” Bailey and the team played in Wichita (Wind). That said, Rollins gets credit for helping Huddy along, and there’s no greater acknowledgement for an AHL coach than a job well done with a prospect. That’s why Jay Woodcroft earned Oilers fans respect last season in Bakersfield. He delivered in the vital areas of being a development coach. He’s more than welcome back, he is a key part of the organization.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a rocking group of guests and another big game to discuss! Frank Seravalli from TSN will discuss the Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues and the frantic transaction fortnight ahead. Matthew Scianitti (also from TSN) will talk about the lid lifter for the CFL season tonight in Hamilton. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

194 Responses to "The Department of Youth"

  1. jp says:

    From this morning:

    Jaxon: Me too. I recall your comment explaining this same issue last week to him. Haha. It has to be.

    At the same time, Russ’s comment is not completely baseless. A player can win the goal share while still being a defensive liability. I just don’t believe this is the case with Benning.

    russ99:
    ArmchairGM,

    Where’s the Against% numbers?

    There’s obviously a good case that he’s at least an average and could be an above average puck mover and offensive D.

    But it’s the other way without the puck where things are egregious. Maybe moments are amplified, but there’s a lot of moments of blown coverage, misplays on odd man breaks, and just getting plain beat. He’s a lot like Gryba this way, he can be physical on the wall, but poor in coverage, especially poor when there’s little support.

    All while being sheltered on the third pair with lesser minutes and comp, as opposed to Nurse and Russell who both stepped up and did pretty well in substantially more minutes and tougher comp due to injury.

    He’s 25, he’s pretty much what he is. If we were in rebuilding mode, I’d have a lot more patience for this player, plus he’s on his first RFA deal, and his salary will only go up for an incomplete player.

    I had a similar look at Benning’s 2nd pairing minutes as Armchair (last 2 seasons instead of 3, and using a different methodology) and came up with very similar results: Benning has been winning the minutes he’s played as a 2nd pair defender (in goal share, but also all other potentially relevant metrics).

    Following up, here are his GF and GA/60 numbers in the same minutes compared to other Oilers D.

    /Benning 3.15GF 2.45GA (932 minute 2nd pairing sample)
    Klefbom 1.97GF 2.72GA
    Larsson 2.04GF 2.74GA
    Nurse 2.55GF 2.49GA
    Russell 2.25GF 2.49GA/

    So Benning has actually been the best Oilers defender at (not) allowing goal against (in top 4 minutes) over the past 2 seasons.

    You wanted also to see on ice save %. Turns out Benning was a little lucky relative to his teammates, but not by a lot (and not enough to explain his good GA/60 and GF% numbers).

    /Benning 92.16%
    Nurse 92.01%
    Russell 91.99%
    Larsson 91.34%
    Klefbom 91.26%/

    To add to that here are Benning’s shots against, scoring chances against and HD scoring chances against for more context.

    Shots against/60:
    Benning 31.2
    Russell 31.0
    Klefbom 31.1
    Nurse 31.2
    Larsson 31.6

    Scoring chances against/60:
    Benning 27.4
    Larsson 27.2
    Klefbom 27.9
    Nurse 28.1
    Russell 28.2

    HD scoring chances/60:
    Benning 10.9
    Klefbom 11.5
    Russell 11.6
    Larsson 11.7
    Nurse 12.1

    Again, all of this is Benning in top 4 minutes only, compared to the Oilers actual top 4 D. I can’t find anything in the “for” numbers, the “against” numbers or the “%” numbers that reflects Benning being poor defensively or a liability. Maybe it’s not there. I dunno.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Bob McKenzie
    @TSNBobMcKenzie
    ·
    11m
    Buyout window opens up Saturday. Sure feels like there a lot of buyout candidates this year:
    Quote Tweet

  3. jtblack says:

    Pennants. Wow.

    4 teams have won more than 6 pennants in the last 52 years …..

    Just shows how hard it really is to win a Pennant .. never mind a Cup ..

    Thanks LT !

  4. Admiral Ackbar says:

    jp:
    From this morning:

    At the same time, Russ’s comment is not completely baseless. A player can win the goal share while still being a defensive liability. I just don’t believe this is the case with Benning.

    I had a similar look at Benning’s 2nd pairing minutes as Armchair (last 2 seasons instead of 3, and using a different methodology) and came up with very similar results: Benning has been winning the minutes he’s played as a 2nd pair defender (in goal share, but also all other potentially relevant metrics).

    Following up, here are his GF and GA/60 numbers in the same minutes compared to other Oilers D.

    /Benning 3.15GF 2.45GA (932 minute 2nd pairing sample)
    Klefbom 1.97GF 2.72GA
    Larsson 2.04GF 2.74GA
    Nurse 2.55GF 2.49GA
    Russell 2.25GF 2.49GA/

    So Benning has actually been the best Oilers defender at (not) allowing goal against (in top 4 minutes) over the past 2 seasons.

    You wanted also to see on ice save %. Turns out Benning was a little lucky relative to his teammates, but not by a lot (and not enough to explain his good GA/60 and GF% numbers).

    /Benning 92.16%
    Nurse 92.01%
    Russell 91.99%
    Larsson 91.34%
    Klefbom 91.26%/

    To add to that here are Benning’s shots against, scoring chances against and HD scoring chances against for more context.

    Shots against/60:
    Benning 31.2
    Russell 31.0
    Klefbom 31.1
    Nurse 31.2
    Larsson 31.6

    Scoring chances against/60:
    Benning 27.4
    Larsson 27.2
    Klefbom 27.9
    Nurse 28.1
    Russell 28.2

    HD scoring chances/60:
    Benning 10.9
    Klefbom 11.5
    Russell 11.6
    Larsson 11.7
    Nurse 12.1

    Again, all of this is Benning in top 4 minutes only, compared to the Oilers actual top 4 D. I can’t find anything in the “for” numbers, the “against” numbers or the “%” numbers that reflects Benning being poor defensively or a liability. Maybe it’s not there. I dunno.

    Excellent analytical assessment! I think he’s a player but on a good team, he ought to be on the bottom pairing. It’d be convenient to make a league wide comparison that adjusts for goaltending and team “quality” which would even the playing field. We all know the Oil haven’t been quality… was that due to poor défense and would this adjustment hide their true D ineptitude? Maybe….

  5. Reja says:

    jtblack:
    Pennants. Wow.

    4 teams have won more than 6 pennants in the last 52 years …..

    Just shows how hard it really is to win a Pennant .. never mind a Cup ..

    Thanks LT !

    Way to go st.loo. Oilers remain 1 back of Hawks and the Big Bad Bruins for 4th all time. Messier Anderson and Lowe are all tied for 10th place individually with 6 cups each.

  6. Reja says:

    If Van is trying to dump Eriksson on us they better add a sweetener or they can allow their talented but weak youngsters to get injured and pushed around like school girls again next year. In fact make it a real sweetener for playing Mac T and trying to Royal us on the Schneider trade.

  7. Death By Misadventure says:

    So, besides the Oilers, which fan base is now most deserving of a cup win?

    Happy for St. Louis and their fans. Been a semi-fan since Doug Weight was traded there.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Approval of the Woodcroft extension is almost universal among Oiler fans – a wonderful thing.

    I am fully on board with Jay – he provides me with confidence when he speaks and we cannot argue with the results. What a season. Fantastic progression for the “hearlded prospects” – Benson, Marody, Jones. An absolutely phenomenal year taking steps forward from the former sleeper, Lagesson. A potential lost cause re-establishing himself as a real potention NHL option down the road – Joe G.

    I wish he would have given Bouchard some less sheltered minutes as the playoffs went on but that’s OK.

    ————————

    Just to play Devils’ advocate, and for the sake of discussion, while Jay W clearly deserves the Kudos and the extension, how much of the/his success is due to:

    – there being actual legit young skilled talent on the team? When was the last time there was more than one or two “real prospects” the level of Marody, Benson, Jones, Bear, Lagesson.

    – an actual mandate of development as primary. Of course, the team also had immense success on the ice but, in the past, “wins” seemed to be the primary mandate over development on youngsters.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson – what he did in a real 20 year old rookie season was exceptional and the comparables for that provide a clear path to the NHL. The question is likely not if but where? – Middle 6 or top 6? Time will tell

    Marody – I hope his struggles in his short stints opened his eyes to what he needs to work on – as LT mentioned, its his skating and he was clearly a stop behind in the games he played. Of course, he was generally given 5 minutes/night with other tweeners. Perhaps playing with 3rd lines as opposed to tweeners will help him show better. He was THE offensive driver of the team. His injury in the playoffs likely cost them a spot in the finals.

    Yamamoto – He excelled at the AHL level once he settled in and showed he is indeed a very good/elite AHL player. My only concern with his current development is injury. I am confident that, if management assigns him to the Bake at the end of camp and leaves him there until at least February, he’ll be around a PPG and pushing for real NHL employment on merit.

    Day – He does have great offensive skill. He is a tire-fire defensively and without the puck. He did improve in that area throughout the year, however, he has a LONG way to go if he ever wants to see an NHL game. He is going to produce ALOT of points in the AHL next year if he’s not blocked offensively by Bouchard, Samorukov, Bear, Jones…..

  10. barry.moore23 says:

    I kinda like that De Brusk kid. Wish he was one of us.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I believe Lucic has more value to Van than a burnt- out 34 year-old does to Edmonton and with the Caps and Blues Winning I would bet Dollars for doughnuts so do most of theGM’s in the league.

    I’d like to see some actual reasoning as to why Eriksson has less value.

    If skill in the bottom 6 and help on the PK are things that Oilers could use:

    Lucic has this mystique of intimidation and deterrence which, although I think is overblown, has some value.

    Other than that, Eriksson is the better player with a broader range of “skills”. Lucic has produced at average to below average 4th line rates for three years. Eriksson has been producing at 3rd line rates (apx 1.5 P/60). Eriksson has PKd essentially his entire career, averaging 1:30 on the PK during his 3 years in Vancouver and, the numbers while he is on the ice are excellent to very excellent. If you add in the PK numbers while in Boston they border on elite. Eriksson has also shown to be able to play tough minutes against elites and take on a high amount of defensive zone starts.

    Eriksson is essentially an extremely overpaid 3rd line player while Lucic is an extremely overpaid replacement level player.

    An argument can be made that the ages and further cliff falling could favor Eriksson – Eriksson is 3 years older, there is a good chance he’s already fallen off his cliff due to age. Lucic has fallen off his cliff during the end of his prime years in his late 20s and, I believe, now 30. What happens when he’s 32 – he could fall even farther.

  12. godot10 says:

    The NHL does award “pennants”. They are called the Prince of Wales Trophy and the Clarence Campbell Trophy.

    Nobody, not even the players care. The players (wisely?) won’t even touch the (damn) things.

    Hockey is like basketball. Nobody really cares who the conference champs are.

    The Superbowl and the merger of the two leagues lent some cachet to the AFC and the NFC champions. Like baseball, there is the remnants of the two leagues things.

    Basketball had two leagues too, but basketball history is the Celtics, the near bankruptcy of the two leagues, and the Bird/Johnson phoenix rising from the ashes. There was not Namath/Jets moment, and the Lakers and Celtics both came from one of the original leagues.

    The WHA was a footnote.

    The NHL has the best championship trophy ever and winning ceremony where the players get the trophy first, so by design that is what people care about.

  13. godot10 says:

    barry.moore23:
    I kinda like that De Brusk kid. Wish he was one of us.

    Think where Boston would be if they hadn’t eff’ed up the other two picks.

  14. Nit64 says:

    “I have argued for many years that the NHL should reward SC finalists by making them pennant winners—ala mlb.”

    MLB has the Warren C. Giles / William Harridge
    NHL has the Prince of Wales / Clarence S. Campbell Bowl

    Parity there.

    But yes baseball fans, press, and the league do a better job than of recognizing both finalists as winners. So does football. Part of that is the AL and AFC were and remain rivals across shared geography,

    But hockey can do better than it does. Small idea but how about 2 classes/size/locations for arena banners. The major banners could be limited to Cup and Conference winners.

    UPDATE: posted that before I saw Godot10 got their first.

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Same as last season, need 1 or both of JP/Yamo to hit their stride. I’m once again hopeful that they will.

    Yamamoto scoring 40P would be massive.

  16. godot10 says:

    Nit64:

    But yes baseball fans, press, and the league do a better job thanof recognizing both finalists as winners. So does football. Part of that is the AL and AFC were and remain rivals across geography,

    Tell that to the Buffalo Bills. Or Elway before finally winning two late in his career. Or the Minnesota Vikings. Or Dan Reeves.

  17. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:

    Yamamoto scoring 40P would be massive.

    40 points shouldn’t be too difficult in the AHL.

  18. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10: Tell that to the Buffalo Bills. Or Elway before finally winning two late in his career.Or the Minnesota Vikings.Or Dan Reeves.

    Sure, you have their contact details?

  19. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: 40 points shouldn’t be too difficult in the AHL.

    Ya more likely he splits time in Bako & Edmonton. Hopefully healthy season at least.

    So cap constrained they need one of Benson/JP/Yamo to be borderline 2nd line quality

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    “Winnipeg, Columbus, Minnesota, Arizona and Toronto are still on the outside looking in.”

    Four of those teams have an excuse: they literally didn’t exist much of this time. No wonder Leafs fans are so insufferable.

  21. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d like to see some actual reasoning as to why Eriksson has less value.

    Because we hate Vancouver?

  22. jp says:

    godot10: 40 points shouldn’t be too difficult in the AHL.

    It shouldn’t. And I agree it’s a bit ambitious for the NHL.

    I would absolutely not be surprised if he manages to stick with the big club and score in the 30 point range as a middle 6 though. It probably won’t happen (and shouldn’t), but the young man has a motor.

  23. Nit64 says:

    godot10: The Superbowl and the merger of the two leagues lent some cachet to the AFC and the NFC champions. Like baseball, there is the remnants of the two leagues things

    In an alternate timeline the Lord Tweedsmuir’s Cup was awarded to the new conference and Lord Stanley’s Cup was left with the original six. Just like every fan knew the Stanley was settled before the Blues’s appearances in the first three Pollock Bowls. Every year LT does a feature on the Lords of Hockey winners. Lordee.

  24. digger50 says:

    Holland indicates he’s not interested in moving the #8 in a package to improve quickly.

    He also seems to infer that he will keep youngsters in the minors longer and bring in some short term place holders.

    If both of these are true, say goodbye to the next season.

    You can say they still have a chance due to McDavid but other than that they will not be able to bring enough talent from cheap free agents and oversea bets to seriously complete.

    Leon Connor ?
    ? Nuge ?
    ? Gagner Kassian
    Khaira ? ?

    So, in my opinion. You trade the #8

    Edit: Hit the wrong button and posted too soon…..

    So, in my opinion. You trade the #8 or you absolutely push the youth. One or the other.

    I see three rookies up front by Christmas and one on defense. Likely they will be the best available.

    Add in a Connolly or a Miller and great – but we are going to need that youth, no way around it.

  25. Nit64 says:

    godot10: Tell that to the Buffalo Bills. Or Elway before finally winning two late in his career.Or the Minnesota Vikings.Or Dan Reeves.

    Curse of the Bambino and the Billy Goat. Bill Buckner and Steve Bartman. Need I go on. Losing the big one in a heart beat or a lot is always tragic.

    But agreed that baseball does it best. I’d put the NFL second mostly due to the merger history we both mentioned and the coast to coast conferences.

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50:
    Holland indicates he’s not interested in moving the #8 in a package to improve quickly.

    He also seems to infer that he will keep youngsters in the minors longer and bring in some short term place holders.

    If both of these are true, say goodbye to the next season.

    You can say they still have a chance due to McDavid but other than that they will not be able to bring enough talent from cheap free agents and oversea bets to seriously complete.

    Leon Connor?
    ?Nuge ?
    ? Gagner Kassian
    Khaira? ?

    So, in my opinion. You trade the #8

    I’d rather build for long-term success than short-term mediocrity. That means keeping the pick.

    The #8 pick will likely be ready for NHL duty by Christmas 2020, right when the Oilers are actually ready to push and need cheap young talent to compliment the existing pieces. If we were one good player away from going deep in the playoffs it might make sense to trade the 8, but we’re not so it doesn’t. Don’t forget 8 is expansion draft exempt too.

  27. digger50 says:

    The youth as I see ready:

    Gambardella secures his position first
    Jessie remains an enigma but starts the year
    Benson forces the coaches to decide to keep him up and thus send of the inexpensive guys down who were brought in to cover for him and that just doesn’t look good
    MacLeod gets a long, long look
    Yamamoto comes on strong by Christmas

  28. incubo_nero says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    So, besides the Oilers, which fan base is now most deserving of a cup win?

    Happy for St. Louis and their fans. Been a semi-fan since Doug Weight was traded there.

    Winnipeg!

  29. geowal says:

    jtblack:
    Pennants. Wow.

    4 teams have won more than 6 pennants in the last 52 years …..

    Just shows how hard it really is to win a Pennant .. never mind a Cup ..

    Thanks LT !

    And 5 teams have never been, and all have been around long enough to have had the chance to build a good team.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50: So, in my opinion. You trade the #8 or you absolutely push the youth. One or the other.

    If by pushing the youth you mean bringing in a guy like Burakovsky or Kapanen and giving them and Puljujarvi the partners / icetime / confidence they need to succeed, I agree. I don’t think we start the season with any rookies on defense unless there’s an injury as we have 7 NHL defensemen plus Manning. Up front, I think Holland would be more accepting of a guy like Gambardella starting in Edmonton due to age and experience rather than Benson who only has 1 pro year under his belt.

  31. Pescador says:

    Nit64: Curse of the Bambino and the Billy Goat. Bill Buckner and Steve Bartman. Need I go on. Losing the big one in a heart beat or a lot is always tragic.

    But agreed that baseball does it best. I’d put the NFL second mostly due to the merger history we both mentioned and the coast to coast conferences.

    Only thing that hockey would have to do to match baseball is host media champagne and beer spraying parties after every series win.
    But hockey players are athletes so that’s probably not a good idea

  32. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d like to see some actual reasoning as to why Eriksson has less value.

    If skill in the bottom 6 and help on the PK are things that Oilers could use:

    Lucic has this mystique of intimidation and deterrence which, although I think is overblown, has some value.

    Other than that, Eriksson is the better player with a broader range of “skills”. Lucic has produced at average to below average 4th line rates for three years. Eriksson has been producing at 3rd line rates (apx 1.5 P/60). Eriksson has PKd essentially his entire career, averaging 1:30 on the PK during his 3 years in Vancouver and, the numbers while he is on the ice are excellent to very excellent. If you add in the PK numbers while in Boston they border on elite. Eriksson has also shown to be able to play tough minutes against elites and take on a high amount of defensive zone starts.

    Eriksson is essentially an extremely overpaid 3rd line player while Lucic is an extremely overpaid replacement level player.

    An argument can be made that the ages and further cliff falling could favor Eriksson – Eriksson is 3 years older, there is a good chance he’s already fallen off his cliff due to age. Lucic has fallen off his cliff during the end of his prime years in his late 20s and, I believe, now 30. What happens when he’s 32 – he could fall even farther.

    Oiler fans are very passionate how can we not be we were gifted Gretzky and company the greatest team ever. Why do you think we get Trolled by the Button”s etc now we have Friedman trolling us with Jesse as a sweetener with Lucic for burnt-out Eriksson Friedman knows he’ll get a response from the Oiler Faithful. It doesn’t matter what I think or what you think when it’s comes to who would be more valuable for the new team. My money says the vast majority of the GM’s take Lucic. Proof is in the pudding. Caps defending champs St. Louis the new Top Dogs. All that matter or results.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JD Burke, who is the Editor in Chief for Elite Prospects, writes for The Athletic and is on Vancouver TSN 1040 wrote this about Broburg:

    https://www.eprinkside.com/2019/06/13/burke-weighing-the-risk-and-reward-of-nhl-draft-prospect-philip-broberg

    Very interesting.

    Comes across as a Swedish Darnell Nurse. (h/t to @BobbyFloor for that comparison)

    Burke is a good follow on twitter as well: @JDylanBurke

  34. slopitch says:

    I have no idea the options available but I personally think the play is to

    1) Use the pick on Cozens or Caufield (the damn kid outscored Matthews, Eichel, Kessel)
    2) Offer sheet Kapanen @ 4 million x 6 (2020 2nd round pick as compensation)
    3) Sign a goalie to 750k 1 year deal. Rely on a better goalie coming around via waiver. I dont have interest in giving out a 2+ year deal to any of the UFA’s.
    4) Re-sign JP or trade for a comparable player like Zadina.
    5) Sign another PTO forward. 750k, make this player interchangable with Gamberdella, Maroody or whomever. Best player gets the job.
    6) Trade Lucic for Eriksson 1 for 1 (no sweetener) if you can, otherwise Lucic on bottom 6 it is

    If you can move Russell or Sekera you do it. If not, by this time next year the cap situation looks much better. It’s also possible that Benson and Bouchard are NHL regulars. Maybe one of Yamamoto or MacLeod. It’s a young mans game. Let the reinforcements come internally.

    Build for 2020 onwards. It took Boston a couple years to undo Chiarelli.

  35. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM: I’d rather build for long-term success than short-term mediocrity.That means keeping the pick.

    The #8 pick will likely be ready for NHL duty by Christmas 2020, right when the Oilers are actually ready to push and need cheap young talent to compliment the existing pieces.If we were one good player away from going deep in the playoffs it might make sense to trade the 8, but we’re not so it doesn’t.Don’t forget 8 is expansion draft exempt too.

    I am not married to the idea that we must trade the #8. (I sent previous post premature)

    The goal is to bring in more skill. The best skill at lowest risk. Proven skill, no gambles.

    If you get that skill via draft then its less expensive, longer term skill. If you get it via trade and it is a 22 year old proven player then its still skill, just more expensive.

    Trading the 8th should not be viewed as selling out the future. If done correctly its adds to your young core and provides the boost and skill to be able to even make the push.

    Four years into Connor and we are not even close to “pushing” to compete, this is wishful thinking and unfortunate.

    Expansion draft is a strong consideration, but presently a small worry for the Oil. How it does have an effect is that it increases the value of this #8 pick, particularly to those teams who are looking at salary problems and losing good players in the expansion draft, and therefore can bring back better value.

  36. Reja says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    So, besides the Oilers, which fan base is now most deserving of a cup win?

    Happy for St. Louis and their fans. Been a semi-fan since Doug Weight was traded there.

    Saskatoon

  37. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Benson – what he did in a real 20 year old rookie season was exceptional and the comparables for that provide a clear path to the NHL. The question is likely not if but where? – Middle 6 or top 6? Time will tell

    Both. At the same time.

    Man I hate this phraseology. Not intending this to be personal OP, but I’ve seen people argue vehemently that a certain player is NOT a top-6 player, he’s a MIDDLE-6 player; it drives me crazy. How many 6’s are there on the roster anyhow?

  38. ArmchairGM says:

    slopitch: 2) Offer sheet Kapanen @ 4 million x 6 (2020 2nd round pick as compensation)

    Have you seen his scoring rates WOWY Matthews? You don’t give out long-term contracts based on one decent year where the kid was being zoomed.

  39. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM: If by pushing the youth you mean bringing in a guy like Burakovsky or Kapanen and giving them and Puljujarvi the partners / icetime / confidence they need to succeed, I agree. I don’t think we start the season with any rookies on defense unless there’s an injury as we have 7 NHL defensemen plus Manning. Up front, I think Holland would be more accepting of a guy like Gambardella starting in Edmonton due to age and experience rather than Benson who only has 1 pro year under his belt.

    I have Gambardella on the team sooner than Benson as well. Applying for different jobs in LT speak

    In regards to Kapanen for example, here we come full circle in the discussion. Trade for him and you have to lose a valuable player. We cant afford to lose any talent. Plus Toronto does not want to take on money in return. Thus the #8 comes into play and the pros/cons are all considered.

    I’m sure Holland would happily part with second rounder and an emerging legit NHL prospect for a Kapanen type. Love to see that happen.

    Also, the big fast 25 goal winger may already be on the team, if he could just figure out his game.

  40. digger50 says:

    That Broberg link is not working for me.

    He sounds great but still high risk and it seems foolish to look at the Oilers depth by position and come up with the decision to choose another defenceman.

    Bear was WNL defenceman of the year
    Bouchard OHL defenceman of the year
    Samorukov has scouts stating he looks NHL ready
    Jones had coach stating he sees “something special”
    Laggeson has an NHL veteran (Sekera) stating that hes ready for the NHL

    I hope they go with a forward

  41. Nit64 says:

    Pescador: Only thing that hockey would have to do to match baseball is host media champagne and beer spraying parties after every series win.

    They spray stuff when they win any series. Heck they spray stuff when they win a wild card playoff or their division or a wild card spot. So most of that spraying is celebrating staying alive.

    LT is talking about how the AL and NL league winners are celebrated as being champions not losers.
    That really is a thing in baseball. Winning the AL or NL is way different than just winning a round. Even years later.

  42. greenshifter says:

    incubo_nero: Winnipeg!

    Agree with Winnipeg.
    Islanders, Senators and Sabre fans could use something good to cheer for, like us .

    Leaf and Canuck fans can continue on in misery as far as I’m concerned

  43. defmn says:

    Reja: Oiler fans are very passionate how can we not be we were gifted Gretzky and company the greatest team ever. Why do you think we get Trolled by the Button”s etc nowwe have Friedman trolling us with Jesse as a sweetener with Lucic for burnt-out Eriksson Friedman knows he’ll get a response from the Oiler Faithful. It doesn’t matter what I think or what you think when it’s comes to who would be more valuable for the new team. My money says the vast majority of the GM’s take Lucic. Proof is in the pudding. Caps defending champs St. Louis the new Top Dogs. All that matter or results.

    I think there is support for your position in the fact that there has been no chatter about a Eriksson for Neal trade. Neal has 4 more years at 5.75 with similar production to Lucic last year.

    Clearly Vancouver is not just interested in moving Eriksson so much as they are looking for a different type of player like Lucic.

    None of these three is any prize at the cap hit they are signed to but the fact that the talk is Eriksson and Lucic rather than Eriksson and Neal is to my mind at least a hint that Vancouver is looking to get something out of this trade other than what the stats can explain. I would hold out for a straight exchange of players if I was Holland and had decided it was best for everyone to move on from Lucic. I see no reason to add.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    What David Perron said in his final interview as an Oiler.

    https://www.coppernblue.com/2014/11/22/7266759/david-perron-devils-post-game-oilers

    “Something has to change. When you are making those mistakes, something needs to happen. They are the same mistakes we were doing last year. We keep talking about how much better we are this year, but for me it is the same record now that we had last year. It is not better.”

    “It’s about a full sixty. We need to have accountability from coaches and teammates.”

    David Perron hoisting the Cup last night:

    https://youtu.be/XtJMp6N9078

    That’s the smile of a man who crawled through a river of shit with Dallas Eakins and Skype MacTavish and came out clean on the other side.

    Well played Mr. Perron. 3rd time’s the charm.

  45. defmn says:

    slopitch:

    I have no idea the options available but I personally think the play is to

    2) Offer sheet Kapanen @ 4 million x 6 (2020 2nd round pick as compensation)

    I am fully on board with trying to pry Kapanen out of Toronto but I am not sure we can afford the $4 mil this coming year so I would prefer the trade route.

    Is it possible that after the Boston series and watching the finals that Toronto would be interested in less production but more physicality? After all scoring goals in Toronto looks pretty set with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Kadri etc.

    I know Kassian is not enough but add a pick next year and it might tempt them. I’m more reluctant to offer Khaira but you’ve gotta give to get.

    Perhaps the old Burke “I’ll offer sheet if you don’t trade” is the way to go?

  46. Nit64 says:

    greenshifter: Sabre fans could use something good to cheer for, like us .

    ~ Well they could cheer for Mr. O’Reilly ~

  47. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    JD Burke, who is the Editor in Chief for Elite Prospects, writes for The Athletic and is on Vancouver TSN 1040 wrote this about Broburg:

    https://www.eprinkside.com/2019/06/13/burke-weighing-the-risk-and-reward-of-nhl-draft-prospect-philip-broberg

    Very interesting.

    Comes across as a Swedish Darnell Nurse.(h/t to @BobbyFloor for that comparison)

    Burke is a good follow on twitter as well:@JDylanBurke

    I actually commented on Pronman’s article on Broberg that he sounds like Darnell Nurse. Pronman said better skater, less physicality.

    But some of the same complaints about passing – will he be able to skate himself out of trouble as often in the pros?

  48. godot10 says:

    digger50:
    Holland indicates he’s not interested in moving the #8 in a package to improve quickly.

    He also seems to infer that he will keep youngsters in the minors longer and bring in some short term place holders.

    If both of these are true, say goodbye to the next season.

    You can say they still have a chance due to McDavid but other than that they will not be able to bring enough talent from cheap free agents and oversea bets to seriously complete.

    Leon Connor?
    ?Nuge ?
    ? Gagner Kassian
    Khaira? ?

    So, in my opinion. You trade the #8

    Edit: Hit the wrong button and posted too soon…..

    So, in my opinion. You trade the #8 or you absolutely push the youth. One or the other.

    I see three rookies up front by Christmas and one on defense. Likely they will be the best available.

    Add in a Connolly or a Miller and great – but we are going to need that youth, no way around it.

    You keep the #8OV.

    The Oilers have enough cap room to get one significant winger for Nugent-Hopkins and a goaltender0

    Then pairs.

    McDavid, Draisaill
    Nugent-Hopkins, significant winger (JT Miller, Hoffman…somebody like that)
    Khaira, Puljujarvi

    That should be enough to get to the playoffs with good coaching.

  49. Death By Misadventure says:

    incubo_nero: Winnipeg!

    Yeah I’m already with that.

    They should have never left.

  50. godot10 says:

    slopitch:

    2) Offer sheet Kapanen @ 4 million x 6 (2020 2nd round pick as compensation)

    Offer sheet compension is based on the AAV, except when the contract is longer than 5 years, then it is the value of the contract divided by 5 years, not the length of the contract.

    So offer sheets will NOT ever be longer than 5 years, unless they are max compensation (4 1sts) contracts already.

  51. Death By Misadventure says:

    slopitch: 2) Offer sheet Kapanen @ 4 million x 6 (2020 2nd round pick as compensation)

    I’m not familiar with this player.

    Are you able to provide some fancies context to why he is worth $4 x 6?

    Edit: Looks like many others have beat me to this question.

  52. godot10 says:

    digger50:
    That Broberg link is not working for me.

    He sounds great but still high risk and it seems foolish to look at the Oilers depth by position and come up with the decision to choose another defenceman.

    Bear was WNL defenceman of the year
    Bouchard OHL defenceman of the year
    Samorukov has scouts stating he looks NHL ready
    Jones had coach stating he sees “something special”
    Laggeson has an NHL veteran (Sekera) stating that hes ready for the NHL

    I hope they go with a forward

    Broberg is a project. HIgh upside, but he needs two years in Sweden before North America.

    He is dominant against his peers, but struggled against men. So it will take time to become dominant against men…to play his game against men.

    The Nurse comparison is a good one in some ways.

    If you bring Broberg over now, and try to put them in a box, like they did with Puljujarvi,and not let them play their game, it will be a disaster.

  53. Death By Misadventure says:

    greenshifter: Agree with Winnipeg.
    Islanders, Senators and Sabre fans could use something good to cheer for, like us .

    Leaf and Canuck fans can continue on in misery as far as I’m concerned

    I’ll allow it 🙂

    I hope Flames, Canucks, Leafs, and Saskatoon never win in my lifetime.

  54. russ99 says:

    The issue with the forwards I see it, is that on the top 6 we have to give Connor, Leon and Nuge some help, and on the bottom 6 we need more contributions on the scoresheet and in defensive support 5×5 and 4×5.

    The top 6 – Nobody is coming from the system anytime soon unless Benson blows the doors off and even then that will take some time as he’s not had his cup of coffee yet to see how the NHL works.

    If we can find a good fit, I’d be OK with moving #8, as long as we get a later pick preferably in the bottom first or top second rounf to keep adding to the system.

    As we learned last year: we can’t push a kid without some fallback in case he doesn’t stick, also preseason stats vs. AHL or less comp doesn’t mean jack.

    The bottom 6 – I’d keep: sign Khaira, promote Gambardella and Marody, keep Cave.

    I’d lose: dump Lucic (No on Eriksson, we can do better/cheaper if we eat some cap), find a taker for Gagner to save cap, dump one of Kassian or Chiasson (cap should be fairly similar) , let go Reider and Rattie and bury Brodziak. That should save some cap to make acquisitions, fill in the bottom six with less expensive FAs who can play well in a Tippett system and produce some offense.

    Sound like Jesse is on the way out, but if he somehow stays, maybe it best to start the year with him on the IR, and give him a double rehab assignment, then call him up and see how he does.

    Promote other AHL players as needed.

  55. Psyche says:

    Reja,

    Dear Saskatoon,

    You don’t deserve anything.

    Sincerely,

    Regina

    P.S. We would like the Riders training camp back.

  56. Death By Misadventure says:

    Psyche:
    Reja,

    Dear Saskatoon,

    You don’t deserve anything.

    Sincerely,

    Regina

    P.S. We would like the Riders training camp back.

    Hahaha instant thread winner!

  57. Psyche says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I heard Mark Edwards, from https://www.hockeyprospect.com, making the same comparison on Stauffer’s show earlier this week. Described Broberg more as a puck transporter and compared him to Nurse. His skating can get him out of trouble. I guess, the question I have is Broberg’s hockey “IQ” (or decision-making) with the puck above average?

  58. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Yama needs to be hitting 1 PPG in the A pretty quick if he’s going to be a top 6 in the N. The league is perhaps getting smaller, but I still don’t see a future for a very small player that isn’t an offensive firecracker. There are better options for ‘less than very good’ at producing.

    I pull for him and all Oiler prospects. The lad has his work cut out for him.

  59. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    russ99,

    Haven’t seen many (if any) suggestions to start Jesse with a two-week conditioning stint in the AHL.

    Not a bad idea, but a couple things come to mind.

    The AHL hasn’t released their schedule yet (from what I can tell), but based off last year there should be some overlap. Not sure when BAK plays during that two weeks though. There’s a decent chance they don’t play many games and it’s mostly practice. Which aren’t the same pace/intensity as games, especially in the NHL.

    With the amount of times Old Dutch has mentioned stability as an organizational ethos, would that two week stint be a benefit or detriment to Jesse?

    I guess it comes down to time to familiarize himself with the new coach/systems/linemates vs time away from the spotlight to get up and running.

    Unless he has any lingering issues from the surgery/rehab, I’d start him as 3RW in the NHL and let him develop chemistry with a centre.

  60. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    The issue with the forwards I see it, is that on the top 6 we have to give Connor, Leon and Nuge some help, and on the bottom 6 we need more contributions on the scoresheet and in defensive support 5×5 and 4×5.

    The top 6 – Nobody is coming from the system anytime soon unless Benson blows the doors off and even then that will take some time as he’s not had his cup of coffee yet to see how the NHL works.

    If we can find a good fit, I’d be OK with moving #8, as long as we get a later pick preferably in the bottom first or top second rounf to keep adding to the system.

    As we learned last year: we can’t push a kid without some fallback in case he doesn’t stick, alsopreseason stats vs. AHL or less comp doesn’t mean jack.

    The bottom 6 – I’d keep: sign Khaira, promote Gambardella and Marody, keep Cave.

    I’d lose: dump Lucic (No on Eriksson, we can do better/cheaper if we eat some cap), find a taker for Gagner to save cap, dump one of Kassian or Chiasson (cap should be fairly similar) , let go Reider and Rattie and bury Brodziak. That should save some cap to make acquisitions, fill in the bottom six with less expensive FAs who can play well in a Tippett system and produce some offense.

    Sound like Jesse is on the way out, but if he somehow stays, maybe it best to start the year with him on the IR, and give him a double rehab assignment, then call him up and see how he does.

    Promote other AHL players as needed.

    Yeah, but what about defense? I heard a rumour about an alleged focus group who’s findings suggested that perhaps Matt Benning has a terrible GA% and we should dump him.

  61. dustrock says:

    I know we are directed to take the Best Player Available at all times, but I look at our prospect cupboards and I would much rather pick the best available forward at #8.

    I don’t think the Oilers can afford a project like Broberg. They need Actual NHL Players on ELC (ANPOE)

  62. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: Broberg is a project.HIgh upside, but he needs two years in Sweden before North America.

    He is dominant against his peers, but struggled against men.So it will take time to become dominant against men…to play his game against men.

    The Nurse comparison is a good one in some ways.

    If you bring Broberg over now, and try to put them in a box, like they did with Puljujarvi,and not let them play their game,it will be a disaster.

    Well Broberg is signed for another year across the pond
    All these teams are drafting all these defensively inept 5’10 dmen who are forwards playing the D position and here comes a 6’3 defensively competent d man but we dont like him because we have Nurse (who is not good defensively).
    Unless someone like Zegras or Turcott or Byram drops all these guys are boom/bust.
    Never draft for need. There is a very strong likelyhood this pick doesnt help you for at least 2 years. Our needs will change. Draft the guy you think will be the best player. This is not the NFL were you can fill roster holes with draft picks

  63. Pouzar says:

    dustrock:
    I know we are directed to take the Best Player Available at all times, but I look at our prospect cupboards and I would much rather pick the best available forward at #8.

    I don’t think the Oilers can afford a project like Broberg.They need Actual NHL Players on ELC (ANPOE)

    I am guru but based on scouting reports I don’t see Broberg as BPA at 8 anyway.
    I hope this is all a smokescreen.

  64. pts2pndr says:

    dustrock:
    I know we are directed to take the Best Player Available at all times, but I look at our prospect cupboards and I would much rather pick the best available forward at #8.

    I don’t think the Oilers can afford a project like Broberg.They need Actual NHL Players on ELC (ANPOE)

    If you project Boberg to need two more years in Sweden and one AHL season it will be about a perfect fit in the timeline with moving on from Klebom. Should also be able to get a good asset back. I like most think that using our eighth overall for a forward if Dach or Cozens are there would be a better fit.

  65. Oil2Oilers says:

    If Puljujarvi is in Edmonton doing rehab right now, why is he not sat with Hitchcock 1 hour a day watching video talking tactics?

    Because Oilers

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50,

    That Broberg link is not working for me.

    Works for me on my phone and desk top.

  67. Death By Misadventure says:

    dustrock:
    I know we are directed to take the Best Player Available at all times, but I look at our prospect cupboards and I would much rather pick the best available forward at #8.

    I don’t think the Oilers can afford a project like Broberg.They need Actual NHL Players on ELC (ANPOE)

    Bold prediction: Broberg is drafted by Los Angeles.

    Shortage of skill D in this draft
    Skating has become a must must skill
    LA GM is a former D
    LA has a history of reaching for D: see Thomas Hickey

    Coincidence? I don’t think so.

    BOOKJE!

    Edit: oh ya and they trade LHD Muzzin this past season.

    So ya, BOOKJE!

  68. slopitch says:

    godot10: Offer sheet compension is based on the AAV, except when the contract is longer than 5 years, then it is the value of the contract divided by 5 years, not the length of the contract.

    So offer sheets will NOT ever be longer than 5 years, unless they are max compensation (4 1sts) contracts already.

    Noted. Did not know that. Thanks! Id change it to 4 mill x 5 years then obviously.

    As for those asking “why kapanen”, ill see if i can put something together later this aft from a stats perspective.

  69. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Important to remember Kapanen had 9P in half of a season last year. He’s 2 years older than JP.

    Kapanen spent ~60% of his 5v5 ice time with Matthews

  70. Pescador says:

    Nit64: They spray stuff when they win any series. Heck they spray stuff when they win a wild card playoff or their division or a wild card spot. So most of that spraying is celebrating staying alive.

    LT is talking about how the AL and NL league winners are celebrated as being champions not losers.
    That really is a thing in baseball. Winning the AL or NL is way different than just winning a round. Even years later.

    I’m well aware of what Lowetide.ca was referencing
    I agree with Godot10 (*9 tops if you ask me*)
    NHL does celebrate East & West champs with trophies and banners instead of pennants.
    Just not celebrated as much by fans probably because we understand that is not the end goal.
    Also what I said rings true for me because I have never watched a televised Western conference championship celebration from inside the locker room.
    Clarified?

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock:
    I know we are directed to take the Best Player Available at all times, but I look at our prospect cupboards and I would much rather pick the best available forward at #8.

    I don’t think the Oilers can afford a project like Broberg.They need Actual NHL Players on ELC (ANPOE)

    BPA is a misnomer. It’s like saying I have the best wife or the best children.

    Draft rankings are crowd sourced opinions based far too heavily on qualitative data from scout viewings.

    Defining something as ‘best’ implies a foolproof quantitative comparative model. That’s not how these players are ranked.

    LTs model of math based equivalencies is at least an attempt to order these prospects in a more systematic fashion than the current process of groupthink trends.

    Different ages. Different leagues. Different positions. How can someone look at a control group with all those fluid variables and claim they can definitively ascertain the best player at #8 for instance? That’s not how data science works.

    Draft rankings/BPA as currently expressed is just a collation of the opinions of the NHL’s alleged ‘smartest men’ The ultimate ‘saw him good’ experiment. And it’s success rate should tell us everything we need to know about the validity of the model.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    People can’t even agree on who was the ‘best’ player most deserving of the Conn Smythe, but we’re allegedly smart enough to define the 8th best hockey prospect across every amateur league in the world.

    And yet the Oilers managed to miss Colton Parayko in their own backyard.

    I suspect the original hypothesis needs some reevaluation.

  73. Nit64 says:

    Oil2Oilers: If Puljujarvi is in Edmonton doing rehab right now, why is he not sat with Hitchcock 1 hour a day watching video talking tactics?

    ~ Probably on account of the restraining order ~

  74. Ben says:

    Bag of Pucks: BPA is a misnomer.

    You’re not wrong, of course. But the BPA philosophy is meant more as an internal guide to choose whichever player you think could present max asset value, rather than filling roster holes.

    It’s just a methodology for educating your guesses–I don’t think anyone’s pretending to objectivity or foresight.

  75. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ben: You’re not wrong, of course. But the BPA philosophy is meant more as an internal guide to choose whichever player you think could present max asset value, rather than filling roster holes.

    It’s just a methodology for educating your guesses–I don’t think anyone’s pretending to objectivity or foresight.

    I don’t know. It feels very much like the Oilers took Puljujarvi based on him being the ‘mythical’ best player available. Same with Jason Bonsignore for that matter.

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50:
    That Broberg link is not working for me.

    He sounds great but still high risk and it seems foolish to look at the Oilers depth by position and come up with the decision to choose another defenceman.

    Bear was WNL defenceman of the year
    Bouchard OHL defenceman of the year
    Samorukov has scouts stating he looks NHL ready
    Jones had coach stating he sees “something special”
    Laggeson has an NHL veteran (Sekera) stating that hes ready for the NHL

    I hope they go with a forward

    Do you have a subscription to the athletic? Pronman has an excellent article – the one woodguy posted seems slanted negatively.

    https://theathletic.com/992207/2019/06/04/pronman-what-to-expect-by-drafting-defenseman-philip-broberg/

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    digger50,

    That Broberg link is not working for me.

    Works for me on my phone and desk top.

    https://theathletic.com/992207/2019/06/04/pronman-what-to-expect-by-drafting-defenseman-philip-broberg/

    The 2nd clip here shows a second or 2 more than the same one in the article you posted, which shows Broberg centering the puck from behind the net where his teammate should have been. The teammate allowed himself to be boxed out and the next guy didn’t get there quick enough so it was a turnover. EP cuts the clip off sooner and shows it as a negative on Broberg.

  78. SwedishPoster says:

    godot10: Broberg is a project.HIgh upside, but he needs two years in Sweden before North America.

    He is dominant against his peers, but struggled against men.So it will take time to become dominant against men…to play his game against men.

    The Nurse comparison is a good one in some ways.

    If you bring Broberg over now, and try to put them in a box, like they did with Puljujarvi,and not let them play their game,it will be a disaster.

    I agree that he needs two years in Sweden, unless he blows the doors off the SHL next season. He didn’t really struggle against men though, a midseason dip after the wjcs where he was hit with a stomach bug. Other than that he had a solid season on a veteran heavy team. His ice time went down in the second half when the coach went with his vets as they were gunning for promotion to the SHL (and fell short).

  79. Ben says:

    SwedishPoster: I agree that he needs two years in Sweden, unless he blows the doors off the SHL next season. He didn’t really struggle against men though, other then a midseason dip after the wjcs where he was hit with a stomach bug. Other then that he had a solid season on a veteran heavy team. His ice time went down in the second half when the coach went with his vets as they were gunning for promotion to the SHL (and fell short).

    Thanks for this. Do you have any thoughts on reports that his hockey sense may be a weakness?

  80. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    thank you

  81. Nit64 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t know. It feels very much like the Oilers took Puljujarvi based on him being the ‘mythical’ best player available. Same with Jason Bonsignore for that matter.

    ~ Well that explains every bad pick. If they only stopped trying to pick the mythical best player. If you think you’ll need a RD in a few years should you pick the best RD available? Or is that also a bad idea? ~

  82. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Important to remember Kapanen had 9P in half of a season last year. He’s 2 years older than JP.

    Kapanen spent ~60% of his 5v5 ice time with Matthews

    Lifetime P/60:

    2.47 with Matthews (607 minutes)
    1.18 without Matthews (917)
    1.69 overall

    Is that worth $4M??

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Same as last season, need 1 or both of JP/Yamo to hit their stride. I’m once again hopeful that they will.

    Yamamoto scoring 40P would be massive.

    Here is hoping that Yamamoto doesn’t really get a chance for that next season.

    Given the mistake to play him in the NHL (again) and his late arrival as full time member of the Condors and, shortly after he settled in and started to really show his skill and game he was in and out of the lineup with injury and then shut down, he essentially lost a development year in his rookie pro season. No matter what he does in camp, he should be assigned to the AHL for the start of their season and left there until at least the turn of the calendar – not called up after he produced 12 points in 11 games. Let him get comfortable and get some real development in.

  84. SwedishPoster says:

    Ben: Thanks for this. Do you have any thoughts on reports that his hockey sense may be a weakness?

    I don’t think it’s much of a weakness, I wrote a long text on him and other swedish D in the draft a few weeks ago but in short I think what’s seen as a lack of IQ and hockey sense is a lack of natural instincts in the O zone, the other parts of his game don’t really make me question his hockey sense. It’s not anything that pops out as a strength but not a weakness no.

    (the forwards are coming btw, just haven’t had time to sit down in front of a cpu)

  85. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster: I agree that he needs two years in Sweden, unless he blows the doors off the SHL next season. He didn’t really struggle against men though, other then a midseason dip after the wjcs where he was hit with a stomach bug. Other then that he had a solid season on a veteran heavy team. His ice time went down in the second half when the coach went with his vets as they were gunning for promotion to the SHL (and fell short).

    Incredible to think that this kid doesn’t turn 18 until 4 days AFTER the draft.

  86. digger50 says:

    godot10: You keep the #8OV.

    The Oilers have enough cap room to get one significant winger for Nugent-Hopkins and a goaltender0

    Then pairs.

    McDavid, Draisaill
    Nugent-Hopkins, significant winger(JT Miller, Hoffman…somebody like that)
    Khaira, Puljujarvi

    That should be enough to get to the playoffs with good coaching.

    Its not enough..

    You might then say it depends on who else flushes out the roster and this is correct. My original point being that if the one choice is not available (#8 trade) then you’ll have to play the youth. You cant run the draft board picks and keep the youth in the minors as Holland was alluding to. Cant afford the slow train on both fronts.

    If you keep #8 you will need to tap into the young internal skill this season. You cant bring in the Cave’s, Brodziaks, and unproven Swedes and expect to compete.

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    Nit64,

    Yeah, so I’m trying a new thing. I call it Gandhi lite.

    In the hopes of more civil and agreeable discourse, I’m not going to engage or respond to people who are rude, sarcastic, hypercritical, dismissive, etc. in their responses to my posts.

    If you want to engage in an open minded and friendly discussion, cool. If your starting point is looking to score points with sarcasm or smartest man demeanor, it’s safe to assume I won’t reply.

    This turning the other cheek stuff is 100% not my genetic disposition, but hey let’s give it a go and see what happens.

  88. slopitch says:

    My argument for Kapanen is as follows:

    1) Age 22 – His next 5 years are gonna be his best and he’s right in the McDavid cluster vs say Connolly or Tyler Johnson who possibly have played their best hockey. Oilers I don’t think can win in 2019-2020 so Im only interested in adding long term solutions.
    2) Assuming TO cant afford 4 million, he could be had for cheap (a 2nd)
    3) He’s RW – KK is a capable top 6 option and RW – oilers are very thin there even if JP “emerges”. He had 44 points last year. Based on last years Oilers stats, if you ignore Chaison and his career high, Kapanen would be the 4th best forward on the Oilers by 18 points. Oilers need more offence. Desperately. Normally I like to use 3 year windows for stats but since he’s young, I’ll focus on 2018-19. Using puckiq data:

    TOI CF CFRC DFF DFFRC
    Elite 33% 50.2 3.4 50 2.69
    Middle 41% 54 7.4 51.4 4.32
    Grit 26% 55.8 3.99 51.3 3.33

    It’s possible, Matthews is zooming him but I believe he’d be a quality top 6 option.

  89. HT Joe says:

    Nit64: ~ Well that explains every bad pick. If they only stopped trying to pick the mythical best player. If you think you’ll need a RD in a few years should you pick the best RD available? Or is that also a bad idea? ~

    Do you know who was the best player available in 2015? Yeah, we picked him. 😀

    *EDIT* Sorry Bag of Pucks… I wasn’t trying to pile on, just trying to make a light-hearted joke. I applaud your efforts towards Ghandi Lite. Cheers!

  90. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    People can’t even agree on who was the ‘best’ player most deserving of the Conn Smythe, but we’re allegedly smart enough to define the 8th best hockey prospect across every amateur league in the world.

    And yet the Oilers managed to miss Colton Parayko in their own backyard.

    I suspect the original hypothesis needs some reevaluation.

    Parayko grew about eight inches and filled out in the year after his draft. Unless you’re Jesus the scout, I don’t think blame is warranted on that one.

  91. godot10 says:

    digger50: Its not enough..

    You might then say it depends on who else flushes out the roster and this is correct. My original point being that if the one choice is not available (#8 trade) then you’ll have to play the youth. You cant run the draft board picks and keep the youth in the minors as Holland was alluding to. Cant afford the slow train on both fronts.

    If you keep #8 you will need to tap into the young internal skill this season.You cant bring in the Cave’s, Brodziaks, and unproven Swedes and expect to compete.

    There is no cap room to add two significant wingers. One significant winger can be obtained without trading the #8OV in the salary cap casualty market. A 2nd one acquired via trade with the #8OV…there is no cap room for that.

    One significant winger and the deep bargain bin…unless both Lucic and Russell can be dumped.

    With Lucic, one is probably just swapping bad contracts and not gaining cap space.

    The point is: One significant winger can be obtained without sacrificing the #8OV.

  92. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Parayko grew about eight inches and filled out in the year after his draft. Unless you’re Jesus the scout, I don’t think blame is warranted on that one.

    That seems a tad hyperbolic. I saw Colton fairly often his final season in the AJHL and he was a big mobile beast even then.

  93. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50: Its not enough..

    You might then say it depends on who else flushes out the roster and this is correct. My original point being that if the one choice is not available (#8 trade) then you’ll have to play the youth. You cant run the draft board picks and keep the youth in the minors as Holland was alluding to. Cant afford the slow train on both fronts.

    If you keep #8 you will need to tap into the young internal skill this season.You cant bring in the Cave’s, Brodziaks, and unproven Swedes and expect to compete.

    It’s not enough. We need 2 additions to the middle-6 this summer – I’d go after Connolly and Burakovsky, personally. Essentially these two could flank RNH while Draisaitl and JP / Kassian play on line 1. We’ll also have 008 matriculating for a year at least… if its Cozens, I could see him coming up for the 2020 season and playing Benson – Nuge – Cozens on the 3rd line and bringing in a UFA forward (Kreider, Hall, etc) for the top-6.

    We’d have to split McDavid and Draisaitl then, unless that UFA was a center, but I don’t see any centers coming available next summer that would slot above RNH. The only guy slated for free agency that qualifies is Backstrom and he’ll be 32 – likely re-signed by the Caps before July 1st anyhow.

  94. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: That seems a tad hyperbolic. I saw Colton fairly often his final season in the AJHL and he was a big mobile beast even then.

    You’re right of course, three inches and 35 pounds.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Holland indicates he’s not interested in moving the #8 in a package to improve quickly.

    He also seems to infer that he will keep youngsters in the minors longer and bring in some short term place holders.

    If both of these are true, say goodbye to the next season.

    You can say they still have a chance due to McDavid but other than that they will not be able to bring enough talent from cheap free agents and oversea bets to seriously complete.

    Leon Connor?
    ?Nuge ?
    ? Gagner Kassian
    Khaira? ?

    So, in my opinion. You trade the #8

    Edit: Hit the wrong button and posted too soon…..

    So, in my opinion. You trade the #8 or you absolutely push the youth. One or the other.

    I see three rookies up front by Christmas and one on defense. Likely they will be the best available.

    Add in a Connolly or a Miller and great – but we are going to need that youth, no way around it.

    Keith Gretzky stated the other day that, in the past, they have gone in to camp relying on AHL/CHL players to make the team and fill spots and its been a mistake.

    It seems the premise to to acquire proven NHL players and force the kids to earn their way in the lineup – FINALLY – perfect.

    Holland has been express that he’s not planning on upgrading the defence this off-season (and they currently have enough veterans so the kids have to win spots).

    He has been very clear, consistently, that he wants to upgrade the bottom six and, in addition to a goalie, I think the bottom six is where we are going to see some solid turnover.

    I wouldn’t think he’ll be making more than one top 6 forward move, if that – hopefully/likely some good bets like Pirri or Ennis – someone that can come in cheap and potentially score 40 or so with high end talent.

    If they can move Russell clean and get Ehlers for Jesse, Bear and a 3rd, great, but there shouldn’t be any material assets out or cap commitment with term for older soon to be UFA top 6 wingers.

    Would/will that be enough? Maybe, maybe not. If there is some decent skill in the bottom six helping with secondary scoring and the D is healthier and better leading to better puck movement/transition and goaltending, who knows?

  96. ArmchairGM says:

    slopitch:
    My argument for Kapanen is as follows:

    1) Age 22 – His next 5 years are gonna be his best and he’s right in the McDavid cluster vs say Connolly or Tyler Johnson who possibly have played their best hockey. Oilers I don’t think can win in 2019-2020 so Im only interested in adding long term solutions.
    2) Assuming TO cant afford 4 million, he could be had for cheap (a 2nd)
    3) He’s RW – KK is a capable top 6 option and RW – oilers are very thin there even if JP “emerges”. He had 44 points last year. Based on last years Oilers stats, if you ignore Chaison and his career high, Kapanen would be the 4th best forward on the Oilers by 18 points. Oilers need more offence. Desperately. Normally I like to use 3 year windows for stats but since he’s young, I’ll focus on 2018-19. Using puckiq data:

    TOICFCFRCDFFDFFRC
    Elite33% 50.23.4 50 2.69
    Middle 41% 547.4 51.4 4.32
    Grit 26% 55.83.9951.3 3.33

    It’s possible, Matthews is zooming him but I believe he’d be a quality top 6 option.

    2018-19 season, Kapanen’s 5v5 P/60 with his three top centers:

    Tavares: 2.62 (91:34)
    Matthews: 2.33 (591:19)
    Kadri: 1.12 (322:40)

    Career: 1.69
    w/ AM: 2.47
    w/o AM: 1.18

    YIKES! I’m not sure Nuge would get more out of him than Kadri did… he’d have to play with McDavid to be worth anything close to a $4M paycheque, but then would he outperform guys we already have?

    Over the past 3 years:

    Kassian w/CMD: 2.22
    Rattie w/ CMD: 2.23
    Puljujarvi w CMD: 2.06 (2.70 without Lucic)

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I’d rather build for long-term success than short-term mediocrity.That means keeping the pick.

    The #8 pick will likely be ready for NHL duty by Christmas 2020, right when the Oilers are actually ready to push and need cheap young talent to compliment the existing pieces.If we were one good player away from going deep in the playoffs it might make sense to trade the 8, but we’re not so it doesn’t.Don’t forget 8 is expansion draft exempt too.

    Agree with the first paragraph, 100% – no buyouts, no material sweeteners, etc.

    On the 2nd point, the player may not be available to come at X-Mas 2020 – they may be back in junior for a draft plus 2 season depending on age (if drafted from the CHL).

  98. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: You’re right of course, three inches and 35 pounds.

    The good news is he’s an extremely decent human being. Very well deserving of the success he’s earned.

    I remember him well when his Barons played the Saints in Spruce Grove. He clearly stood out but so did his family. Always a sizable vocal contingent on hand. All of them proudly wearing his jersey. Clearly great family support was a key part of the story.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Oiler fans are very passionate how can we not be we were gifted Gretzky and company the greatest team ever. Why do you think we get Trolled by the Button”s etc nowwe have Friedman trolling us with Jesse as a sweetener with Lucic for burnt-out Eriksson Friedman knows he’ll get a response from the Oiler Faithful. It doesn’t matter what I think or what you think when it’s comes to who would be more valuable for the new team. My money says the vast majority of the GM’s take Lucic. Proof is in the pudding. Caps defending champs St. Louis the new Top Dogs. All that matter or results.

    OK, fair enough.

    For clarification, do you agree with me that Eriksson has been the better player and has more skills the Oilers could use but suggest that GMs generally value Lucic more or do you agree with the GMs on the value?

  100. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: The good news is he’s an extremely decent human being. Very well deserving of the success he’s earned.

    I remember him well when his Barons played the Saints in Spruce Grove. He clearly stood out but so did his family. Always a sizable vocal contingent on hand. All of them proudly wearing his jersey. Clearly great support was a key part of the story.

    He’s been at our golf tournament a few times, strikes me as a great guy who has no ego problems at all. Needs a world filled with higher ceilings though.

  101. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: He’s been at our golf tournament a few times, strikes me as a great guy who has no ego problems at all. Needs a world filled with higher ceilings though.

    Would’ve looked great in Oiler silks.

    Last night watching him, I was thinking he’s the range of Nurse without the poor play anticipation.

  102. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Nit64,

    Yeah, so I’m trying a new thing. I call it Gandhi lite.

    In the hopes of more civil and agreeable discourse, I’m not going to engage or respond to people who are rude, sarcastic, hypercritical, dismissive, etc. in their responses to my posts.

    If you want to engage in an open minded and friendly discussion, cool. If your starting point is looking to score points with sarcasm or smartest man demeanor, it’s safe to assume I won’t reply.

    This turning the other cheek stuff is 100% not my genetic disposition, but hey let’s give it a go and see what happens.

    But Gandhi would reply, with love and by putting his faith in the hands of the ones that would hurt him. Just sayin’.

  103. McSorley33 says:

    digger50,

    That Broberg link is not working for me.

    He sounds great but still high risk and it seems foolish to look at the Oilers depth by position and come up with the decision to choose another defenceman.

    Bear was WNL defenceman of the year
    Bouchard OHL defenceman of the year
    Samorukov has scouts stating he looks NHL ready
    Jones had coach stating he sees “something special”
    Laggeson has an NHL veteran (Sekera) stating that hes ready for the NHL

    I hope they go with a forward
    **************************************************************************
    Completely agree.

    But go one step further / farther….take a look at the winger/Cr depth in the system.

    Ouch.

    Seems like a really, really easy call – pick a forward and stop inflicting anvils
    on our C’s.

  104. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jethro Tull: But Gandhi would reply, with love and by putting his faith in the hands of the ones that would hurt him.Just sayin’.

    Well I did say Gandhi lite.

    I certainly wouldn’t hunger strike for any of you fuckers! 😏

  105. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I did a project at the Suncor Edmonton refinery with his uncle, who was just a friendly, helpful, solid guy to work with and talk to. He was very proud of his nephew, without being boastful. Something in the water, perhaps.

  106. Psyche says:

    Lowetide,

    Jesus was more management type than scout. I’d bet his Dad was a heckuva scout. Guarantee he knew what Parayko would become. 🙂

  107. Material Elvis says:

    Why is there a report out that the Oilers are interested in Nikita Zaitsev? This has to be a troll job from the Leafs management using Dreger as their messenger. Why would they want a player who isn’t as good as Matt Benning, who also has an albatross contract? This acquisition makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

  108. Bag of Pucks says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I did a project at the Suncor Edmonton refinery with his uncle, who was just a friendly, helpful, solid guy to work with and talk to.He was very proud of his nephew, without being boastful.Something in the water, perhaps.

    Some families definitely figure it all out fast.

  109. commonfan29 says:

    Lowetide,

    The sheer force and joy with which he hugged that young Blues superfan girl last night was a hell of a thing.

  110. Bag of Pucks says:

    Material Elvis:
    Why is there a report out that the Oilers are interested in Nikita Zaitsev?This has to be a troll job from the Leafs management using Dreger as their messenger.Why would they want a player who isn’t as good as Matt Benning, who also has an albatross contract?This acquisition makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    Howson never met a Nikita he didn’t like?

    https://g.co/kgs/9P39Hw

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, but what about defense? I heard a rumour about an alleged focus group who’s findings suggested that perhaps Matt Benning has a terrible GA% and we should dump him.

    That fucking GA% will get you every time.

  112. Psyche says:

    Material Elvis,

    Unsurprisingly the Zaitsev-Oiler rumour came from a Dreger tweet. The same person who insisted his brother-in-law was a GM candidate for the Oilers. (Was it ever confirmed if he received an interview?)

    Either he enjoys trolling Oilers fans or just needs the clicks/likes to stay relevant in his profession. It has been awhile since I’ve read or heard Dreger share anything significant and sensible about the Oilers.

  113. Material Elvis says:

    Zaitsev is not an offensive defenseman. He is mediocre to poor defensively. He has an albatross contract. He is a 3rd pairing defenseman at best. Let’s trade for him and help the Leafs out of their cap situation while we’re at it! How about Benning and the 8ov pick for Zaitsev? Maybe we can throw in Bouchard to make it work?

  114. Material Elvis says:

    Psyche:
    Material Elvis,

    Unsurprisingly the Zaitsev-Oiler rumour came from a Dreger tweet. The same person who insisted his brother-in-law was a GM candidate for the Oilers. (Was it ever confirmed if he received an interview?)

    Either he enjoys trolling Oilers fans or just needs the clicks/likes to stay relevant in his profession. It has been awhile since I’ve read or heard Dreger share anything significant and sensible about the Oilers.

    That’s what I’m thinking. But I would feel better if the local sports media would write an article about how awful this trade would be for the Oilers. We need a counter puncher!

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    That Broberg link is not working for me.

    He sounds great but still high risk and it seems foolish to look at the Oilers depth by position and come up with the decision to choose another defenceman.

    Bear was WNL defenceman of the year
    Bouchard OHL defenceman of the year
    Samorukov has scouts stating he looks NHL ready
    Jones had coach stating he sees “something special”
    Laggeson has an NHL veteran (Sekera) stating that hes ready for the NHL

    I hope they go with a forward

    This is some dangerous thinking in my mind.

    Lets not forget, whoever we pick at 8 is likely two full seasons away from the NHL – we do not know the makeup of the team at that point – it wasn’t very long ago we were flush with wingers and had little organizational depth on the back-end.

    In a few years, both Russell and Sekera will be gone and one of Jones, Bear, Lagesson are likely gone in the expansion draft.

    Further, we all know I love following the prospects and I really do like all of the players you listed, however, there is one sure thing for the NHL, that’s Evan Bouchard.

    Most prospects fail, even those with arrows up in their post draft years.

    I don’t think we can fully count on more than 2 of them making it if history shows us anything – despite them each looking like good bets individually for some sort of NHL career.

    Bouchard – almost a lock to be an every day guy and extremely likely to be top 4 guy.

    Jones – it looks like he is or will be NHL ready soon but he isnt’ a lock to be an every day NHL guy even though it looks good and he certainly isn’t a lock to be a top 4 guy.

    Lagesson – he may be my favorite prospect, I truly think he will become a 22 minutes 2LD but he is no lock

    Bear – OHL d-man of the year means little – he has finished 2 years of pro and still struggles big time with the things he did two years ago – defending speed off the rush, dealing with speed on puck retrieval and battling on the boards. He may never make it and, if he does, I don’t see him being more than a weak 3rd pairing guy with PP time – his shot is lethal though

    Samorukov – he’s got the highest potential of them all in my mind, even higher than Bouchard in my opinion. He may never become an every day NHL guy.

    Sekera saying Lagesson is ready, the Ottawa 67s PBP guy saying Samorukov is NHL ready, internal correspondence that Jones is special all mean very little.

    All these guys (save maybe Bear in my opinion) seem like great bets in isolation – in reality its unlikely more than 2 make it.

  116. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Agree with the first paragraph, 100% – no buyouts, no material sweeteners, etc.

    On the 2nd point, the player may not be available to come at X-Mas 2020 – they may be back in junior for a draft plus 2 season depending on age (if drafted from the CHL).

    That was an historical reference – most players drafted in this range are in the league in their draft+2 season, sometimes at the beginning, sometimes partway through. He’s a list of recent draftees and their NHL boxcars in their draft+2 season

    #8:
    Couterier: 46, 4-11-15 0.33 p/gp (Lockout season, he played 77 games in draft+1)
    Pouliot: no NHL games
    Ristolainen: 78, 8-12-20 0.26
    W. Nylander: 22, 6-7-13 0.59
    Werenski: 78, 11-36-47 0.60
    A. Nylander: 3, 1-0-1 0.33
    Mittelstadt: 77, 12-13-25 0.32

    #9:
    Hamilton: 42, 5-11-16 0.38 (Lockout season)
    Trouba: 65, 10-19-29 0.45
    Horvat: 68, 13-12-25 0.37
    Ehlers: 72, 15-23-38 0.53
    Meier: 34, 3-3-6 0.18
    Sergachev: 79, 9-31-40 0.51
    Rasmussen: 62, 8-10-18 0.29 (this is Holland, who famously over-ripens players)

    Since 2011, we have just one forward that didn’t play at least 22 games in the league, out of 8, and one defenseman that was sent for an overage season in WHL, out of 6. The average number of games for a forward is 48 with an asterisk, as it includes a lockout year for one player. The average number of games for a defenseman is 57. (Maybe this should be our expectation for Bouchard this coming season?)

    I think it’s fair to say W Nylander could have come up sooner based on his production when he arrived – best p/gp of any of these forwards. Meier stayed once he got the call even though he wasn’t producing much, although he made an impact the following year, scoring 21 goals in 81 games.

    I agree that a CHL player may be sent back for draft+2, but the ability to make the roster on merit in the second year should be expected as the normal course of development for 008 – it’s not the exception, but the rule.

  117. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM: That was an historical reference – most players drafted in this range are in the league in their draft+2 season, sometimes at the beginning, sometimes partway through. He’s a list of recent draftees and their NHL boxcars in their draft+2 season

    #8:
    Couterier: 46, 4-11-150.33 p/gp (Lockout season, he played 77 games in draft+1)
    Pouliot: no NHL games
    Ristolainen: 78, 8-12-200.26
    W. Nylander: 22, 6-7-130.59
    Werenski: 78, 11-36-470.60
    A. Nylander: 3, 1-0-10.33
    Mittelstadt: 77, 12-13-250.32

    #9:
    Hamilton: 42, 5-11-160.38 (Lockout season)
    Trouba: 65, 10-19-290.45
    Horvat: 68, 13-12-250.37
    Ehlers: 72, 15-23-380.53
    Meier: 34, 3-3-60.18
    Sergachev: 79, 9-31-400.51
    Rasmussen: 62, 8-10-180.29 (this is Holland, who famously over-ripens players)

    Since 2011, we have just one forward that didn’t play at least 22 games in the league, out of 8, and one defenseman that was sent for an overage season in WHL, out of 6. The average number of games for a forward is 48 with an asterisk, as it includes a lockout year for one player. The average number of games for a defenseman is 57. (Maybe this should be our expectation for Bouchard this coming season?)

    I think it’s fair to say W Nylander could have come up sooner based on his production when he arrived – best p/gp of any of these forwards. Meier stayed once he got the call even though he wasn’t producing much, although he made an impact the following year, scoring 21 goals in 81 games.

    I agree that a CHL player may be sent back for draft+2, but the ability to make the roster on merit in the second year should be expected as the normal course of development for 008 – it’s not the exception, but the rule.

    10 of the 14 players listed played essentially a full NHL season in their draft+2.

  118. slopitch says:

    ArmchairGM: 2018-19 season, Kapanen’s 5v5 P/60 with his three top centers:

    Tavares: 2.62 (91:34)
    Matthews: 2.33 (591:19)
    Kadri: 1.12 (322:40)

    Career: 1.69
    w/ AM: 2.47
    w/o AM: 1.18

    YIKES! I’m not sure Nuge would get more out of him than Kadri did… he’d have to play with McDavid to be worth anything close to a $4M paycheque, but then would he outperform guys we already have?

    Over the past 3 years:

    Kassian w/CMD: 2.22
    Rattie w/ CMD: 2.23
    Puljujarvi w CMD: 2.06 (2.70 without Lucic)

    Projecting young players is tough. A scoring slump when you get limited minutes (KK got 4 extra minutes per game at 5 on 5 in 18/19 vs 17/18) can really make things worse. Although he was younger Drai had a similar PDO sinker to start his career. In 2017/18 KK’s shooting % was under 5%. Would he put up similar 45 pts per year playing with Nuge? I dont know but he was getting 14 min ES toi from Babcock on a good team.

    4 million might be high but it needs to be high enough to make TO walk away. If you think KK can play top 6, committing 5% of the cap to said player is a good bet. I like that bet better than say Nyquist, Vanek or Connolly despite losing a pick.

  119. Andy Dufresne says:

    slopitch:
    I have no idea the options available but I personally think the play is to

    1) Use the pick on Cozens or Caufield (the damn kid outscored Matthews, Eichel, Kessel)
    2) Offer sheet Kapanen @ 4 million x 6 (2020 2nd round pick as compensation)
    3) Sign a goalie to 750k 1 year deal. Rely on a better goalie coming around via waiver. I dont have interest in giving out a 2+ year deal to any of the UFA’s.
    4) Re-sign JP or trade for a comparable player like Zadina.
    5) Sign another PTO forward. 750k, make this player interchangable with Gamberdella, Maroody or whomever. Best player gets the job.
    6) Trade Lucic for Eriksson 1 for 1 (no sweetener) if you can, otherwise Lucic on bottom 6 it is

    If you can move Russell or Sekera you do it. If not, by this time next year the cap situation looks much better. It’s also possible that Benson and Bouchard are NHL regulars. Maybe one of Yamamoto or MacLeod. It’s a young mans game. Let the reinforcements come internally.

    .
    Build for 2020 onwards. It took Boston a couple years to undo Chiarelli.

    +1 Thank You.

    Nice Pitch. Not Slow at all. Very compact and concise. (with the exception of the extra o in Marody. haha).

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    The issue with the forwards I see it, is that on the top 6 we have to give Connor, Leon and Nuge some help, and on the bottom 6 we need more contributions on the scoresheet and in defensive support 5×5 and 4×5.

    The top 6 – Nobody is coming from the system anytime soon unless Benson blows the doors off and even then that will take some time as he’s not had his cup of coffee yet to see how the NHL works.

    If we can find a good fit, I’d be OK with moving #8, as long as we get a later pick preferably in the bottom first or top second rounf to keep adding to the system.

    As we learned last year: we can’t push a kid without some fallback in case he doesn’t stick, alsopreseason stats vs. AHL or less comp doesn’t mean jack.

    let go Reider and Rattie and bury Brodziak. That should save some cap to make acquisitions, fill in the bottom six with less expensive FAs who can play well in a Tippett system and produce some offense.

    Sound like Jesse is on the way out, but if he somehow stays, maybe it best to start the year with him on the IR, and give him a double rehab assignment, then call him up and see how he does.

    1) Keith Gretzky said the other day they will do just that – not count on AHL/CHL players to graduate before they prove ready – he said they’ve been doing that and its been a mistake

    2) Gagner is expensive but he provide legit 3rd line (almost 2nd line) production last year – the GM wants skill in the bottom 6

    3) This isn’t an option with Puljujarvi – you can’t just place a player on IR if he’s healthy and all indications are he’ll be ready to go. My goodness, imagine what his agent would do. Not to mention, even if he was on LTIR (not regular IR), there are very strict parameters around that conditioning stint and its a max of 3 games with league approval needed for more.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Yama needs to be hitting 1 PPG in the A pretty quick if he’s going to be a top 6 in the N. The league is perhaps getting smaller, but I still don’t see a future for a very small player that isn’t an offensive firecracker. There are better options for ‘less than very good’ at producing.

    I pull for him and all Oiler prospects. The lad has his work cut out for him.

    Given how he was performing down there last year after he settled in, I have little doubt he’ll be at or around a PPG next season. I watched alot of Condors last year and he was a high end AHL player constantly creating scoring chances, even when playing with Esposito and Vesel. The damn injuries!

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    If Puljujarvi is in Edmonton doing rehab right now, why is he not sat with Hitchcock 1 hour a day watching video talking tactics?

    Because Oilers

    Because Oilers or because that has likely never happened with any NHL organization ever?

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: BPA is a misnomer.It’s like saying I have the best wife or the best children.

    Draft rankings are crowd sourced opinions based far too heavily on qualitative data from scout viewings.

    Defining something as ‘best’ implies a foolproof quantitative comparative model. That’s not how these players are ranked.

    LTs model of math based equivalencies is at least an attempt to order these prospects in a more systematic fashion than the current process of groupthink trends.

    Different ages. Different leagues. Different positions. How can someone look at a control group with all those fluid variables and claim they can definitively ascertain the best player at #8 for instance? That’s not how data science works.

    Draft rankings/BPA as currently expressed is just a collation of the opinions of the NHL’s alleged ‘smartest men’ The ultimate ‘saw him good’ experiment. And it’s success rate should tell us everything we need to know about the validity of the model.

    I believe by suggesting the choose the “best player available” the suggestion is they choose the player they have, as an organization, deemed to be the best player – not the player that the world has absolutely determined for certainty is the best player.

  124. Lowetide says:

    Mark Spector
    @SportsnetSpec
    ·
    13m
    Oilers GM Ken Holland and Pat Morris, agent for winger Alex Chiasson, have not had meaningful discussions yet. Both sides happy with each other – player wants to stay and team likes the player. I’d guess he remains a UFA through courting process, at least.

    They need speed and they need a pure scorer. Kassian, Gagner are the current RW’s. I think they’ll wait and see on that third addition before making a decision on Chiasson.

  125. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks: BPA is a misnomer.It’s like saying I have the best wife or the best children.

    Draft rankings are crowd sourced opinions based far too heavily on qualitative data from scout viewings.

    Defining something as ‘best’ implies a foolproof quantitative comparative model. That’s not how these players are ranked.

    LTs model of math based equivalencies is at least an attempt to order these prospects in a more systematic fashion than the current process of groupthink trends.

    Different ages. Different leagues. Different positions. How can someone look at a control group with all those fluid variables and claim they can definitively ascertain the best player at #8 for instance? That’s not how data science works.

    Draft rankings/BPA as currently expressed is just a collation of the opinions of the NHL’s alleged ‘smartest men’ The ultimate ‘saw him good’ experiment. And it’s success rate should tell us everything we need to know about the validity of the model.

    I was also thinking something along these lines. But this is far, far better said than I’d have managed.

  126. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Mark Spector
    @SportsnetSpec
    ·
    13m
    Oilers GM Ken Holland and Pat Morris, agent for winger Alex Chiasson, have not had meaningful discussions yet. Both sides happy with each other – player wants to stay and team likes the player. I’d guess he remains a UFA through courting process, at least.

    They need speed and they need a pure scorer. Kassian, Gagner are the current RW’s. I think they’ll wait and see on that third addition before making a decision on Chiasson.

    Good job Kenny. Don’t bargain against yourself. Don’t go beyond one year or $1.5 million.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Nit64,

    Yeah, so I’m trying a new thing. I call it Gandhi lite.

    In the hopes of more civil and agreeable discourse, I’m not going to engage or respond to people who are rude, sarcastic, hypercritical, dismissive, etc. in their responses to my posts.

    If you want to engage in an open minded and friendly discussion, cool. If your starting point is looking to score points with sarcasm or smartest man demeanor, it’s safe to assume I won’t reply.

    This turning the other cheek stuff is 100% not my genetic disposition, but hey let’s give it a go and see what happens.

    That is fantastic to read, I am proud of you (and, no, that is not being sarcastic).

    At the same time, I truly hope that you can be civil in your discourse and not rude, sarcastic, hypercritical and dismissive as, no offence, that is certainly you MO.

    No, I am not letting myself off the hook with respect to culpability.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: That was an historical reference – most players drafted in this range are in the league in their draft+2 season, sometimes at the beginning, sometimes partway through.

    I agree that a CHL player may be sent back for draft+2, but the ability to make the roster on merit in the second year should be expected as the normal course of development for 008 – it’s not the exception, but the rule.

    Yes, thank you, but my point is that the player may not be available to come part way through draft plus 2 – either he sticks out of camp or we see him when his CHL season is finished (depending on his age).

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    BPA is pretty hard to figure out after the no brainer picks, top 3-5 yearly.

    Scouts might have a player they strongly believe in. We knows most top half of the first round make the nhl, but we don’t know if they’ll be impact players which is the goal.

    So, if things aren’t clear, drafting the position you need is logical. Drafting down the middle is logical. Centre over winger.

    Wingers are like the lead guitar players of the NHL. Everyone wants to be the hotshot. Very few are difference makers at it. The rhythm section (D and G) and rhythm guitarist (C) do the grunt work. Connor plays lead and rhythm.

    What are keys? Coach?

  130. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: OK, fair enough.

    For clarification, do you agree with me that Eriksson has been the better player and has more skills the Oilers could use but suggest that GMs generally value Lucic more or do you agree with the GMs on the value?

    At this point in their career I’ll take Lucic all day every day. Something dark is up with Milan he needs a fresh start I really think a motivated Milan will have way more Value then Loui I would not trade him to a team in our division. I really liked Eriksson in dallas he was fantastic but the Sedins got this man a fantastic retirement contract. Vancouver and Milan’s people are really tiring to sell this trade but in the end will Loui waive his trade clause to come to Edmonton and be this PK guru at 34.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    As much as a game 7 at home on Sunday night would be epic, lets get er done tonight!

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: At this point in their career I’ll take Lucic all day every day. Something dark is up with Milan he needs a fresh start I really think a motivated Milan will have way more Value then Loui I would not trade him to a team in our division. I really liked Eriksson in dallas he was fantastic but the Sedins got this man a fantastic retirement contract. Vancouver andMilan’s people are really tiring to sell this trade but in the end will Loui waive his trade clause to come to Edmonton and be this PK guru at 34.

    May I ask how you justify Eriksson over Lucic given the evidence?

    ——————-

    Eriksson is the better player with a broader range of “skills”. Lucic has produced at average to below average 4th line rates for three years. Eriksson has been producing at 3rd line rates (apx 1.5 P/60). Eriksson has PKd essentially his entire career, averaging 1:30 on the PK during his 3 years in Vancouver and, the numbers while he is on the ice are excellent to very excellent. If you add in the PK numbers while in Boston they border on elite. Eriksson has also shown to be able to play tough minutes against elites and take on a high amount of defensive zone starts.

    Eriksson is essentially an extremely overpaid 3rd line player while Lucic is an extremely overpaid replacement level player.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-holland-provides-mcdavid-update/c-307847998

    EDMONTON, AB – Oilers General Manager & President of Hockey Operations Ken Holland provided an update Thursday evening on the rehab status of Oilers captain Connor McDavid at a hot stove event with Oilers senior management at Rogers Place.

    “He’s doing good. I’ve seen him twice this week,” Holland said. “Ten days ago, I drove to Toronto and spent two and a half or three hours with Connor having lunch and talking to him. Then this week on Monday, I was in Toronto for two days, Tuesday with the Competition Committee but I went up on Monday to spend time with Connor again and see where he works out. He’s doing good. He’s rehabbing.

    Holland continued: “I expect to see him on the ice at training camp. Working very closely with our medical team and the medical people that he’s got in Toronto to make sure he’s getting the best care possible. He’s in great spirits. I really enjoyed meeting him. It was the first time that I’d really got to spend more than just shaking his hand in the hallway as a visiting team. He’s doing great and looking forward to being on the ice at training cam

  134. Gerta Rauss says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Wingers are like the lead guitar players of the NHL. Everyone wants to be the hotshot. Very few are difference makers at it. The rhythm section (D and G) and rhythm guitarist (C) do the grunt work. Connor plays lead and rhythm.

    I guess that makes Lucic the bassist for Spinal Tap

  135. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: May I ask how you justify Eriksson over Lucic given the evidence?

    ——————-

    Eriksson is the better player with a broader range of “skills”. Lucic has produced at average to below average 4th line rates for three years. Eriksson has been producing at 3rd line rates (apx 1.5 P/60). Eriksson has PKd essentially his entire career, averaging 1:30 on the PK during his 3 years in Vancouver and, the numbers while he is on the ice are excellent to very excellent. If you add in the PK numbers while in Boston they border on elite. Eriksson has also shown to be able to play tough minutes against elites and take on a high amount of defensive zone starts.

    Eriksson is essentially an extremely overpaid 3rd line player while Lucic is an extremely overpaid replacement level player.

    Lucic can hurt you if he wants no way I’m trading him to Van the Habs could use a Motivated Lucic. Eriksson is done he won’t go to net the hard areas he plays the perimeter. No thank you Vancouver unless you add.

  136. Reja says:

    godot10: Good job Kenny.Don’t bargain against yourself.Don’t go beyond one year or $1.5 million.

    1.75 three years book it.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Lucic can hurt you if he wants no way I’m trading him to Van the Habscould use a Motivated Lucic. Eriksson is done he won’t go to net the hard areas he plays the perimeter. No thank you Vancouver unless you add.

    but how do you say that Eriksson is done and Lucic isn’t given the clear evidence?

  138. Yeti says:

    Bag of Pucks: BPA is a misnomer. It’s like saying I have the best wife or the best children.

    You’d want my wife if you saw her. Total body hair, a real stunner.

  139. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: but how do you say that Eriksson is done and Lucic isn’t given the clear evidence?

    Who would have fit right in with the Caps last year and St. Louis or even The Big Bad Bruins Lucic or Tinker Bell Loui I think 30 out of 31 GM’e would take Lucic in the playoffs.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    jp: I was also thinking something along these lines. But this is far, far better said than I’d have managed.

    Thank you and don’t sell yourself short. I’m sure you could have made the case eloquently as well!

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lucic wouldn’t have fit right in with those teams – he can’t make a play with any sort of speed of efficiency – he can barely even take a pass (and generally can’t even take one at all). Getting in to hit a d-man after the puck is gone and the play is going the other way is not all that valuable.

    Not that Eriksson is actually good but he does produce as solid 3rd line rates, can take on minutes against elites and seems to be a very good penalty killer (over a very long sample size).

    Eriksson is an actual 3rd line player, Lucic is a replacement level 4th liner – both massively overpaid but one actually provides something.

  142. Bag of Pucks says:

    Yeti: You’d want my wife if you saw her.

    You offering?

    Said Mahatma Gandhi never 😈

  143. Glovjuice says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Nit64,

    Yeah, so I’m trying a new thing. I call it Gandhi lite.

    In the hopes of more civil and agreeable discourse, I’m not going to engage or respond to people who are rude, sarcastic, hypercritical, dismissive, etc. in their responses to my posts.

    If you want to engage in an open minded and friendly discussion, cool. If your starting point is looking to score points with sarcasm or smartest man demeanor, it’s safe to assume I won’t reply.

    This turning the other cheek stuff is 100% not my genetic disposition, but hey let’s give it a go and see what happens.

    You will fail good sir. I’ve tried many times.

  144. Glovjuice says:

    Bag of Pucks: That seems a tad hyperbolic. I saw Colton fairly often his final season in the AJHL and he was a big mobile beast even then.

    Like the chamber?

  145. Glovjuice says:

    Bag of Pucks: Would’ve looked great in Oiler silks.

    Last night watching him, I was thinking he’s the range of Nurse without the poor play anticipation.

    More like Pronger light.

  146. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lucic wouldn’t have fit right in with those teams – he can’t make a play with any sort of speed of efficiency – he can barely even take a pass (and generally can’t even take one at all). Getting in to hit a d-man after the puck is gone and the play is going the other way is not all that valuable.

    Not that Eriksson is actually good but he does produce as solid 3rd line rates, can take on minutes against elites and seems to be a very good penalty killer (over a very long sample size).

    Eriksson is an actual 3rd line player, Lucic is a replacement level 4th liner – both massively overpaid but one actually provides something.

    Lucic needs a change of scenery but I know he’s not done and he will have a bounce back year with his new team or with the Oilers. 34- year old perimeter non contact players are not in high demand these days. Holy smokes your sure piling on Milan.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Lucic needs a change of scenery but I know he’s not done and he will have a bounce back year with his new team or with the Oilers. 34- year old perimeter non contact players are not in high demand these days. Holy smokes your sure piling on Milan.

    Nope, 34 year old perimeter non contact players are not in high demand but neither are worse players with worse contracts even if a couple years younger. I may be piling on Lucic but its deserved and I don’t think anything I’ve said is incorrect. Lets not forget, its been 3 years of Lucic being awful at 5 on 5 – he was just as bad in year 1 – his decent production was on a crazy PP heater where he literally doubled essentially all of his career numbers.

    He’s been awful for 3 years – I’m not sure there is anything to point to him bouncing back (and i was confident he would a year ago). The fact that he’s fallen off this massive cliff and he is now just hitting the normal decline years is overly concerning.

    Eriksson is not good – he’s that perimeter player you talk about but he’s produced at 3rd line rates, he’s good on the PK and his can play tough minutes with high defensive zone starts.

    You are piling on Erkisson and I think what you say about him isn’t completely fatual.

  148. Bag of Pucks says:

    Glovjuice: You will fail good sir.I’ve tried many times.

    The only failing imo is to not try.

    Some of the people you encounter in this life are inevitably going to be noise. Gotta get better at tuning out the noise.

  149. jp says:

    Very cool Raptors! Well done!

  150. Ice Sage says:

    jp:
    Very cool Raptors! Well done!

    Toronto briefly forgets their LT pennant drought

  151. Ryan says:

    Bag of Pucks: That seems a tad hyperbolic. I saw Colton fairly often his final season in the AJHL and he was a big mobile beast even then.

    Rare moment of truth, here.

    I never thought much about Chara or the Bruins in the past.

    After his hit on Pacioretty into the stanchion, I developed a visceral dislike of Chara both as a hockey player and human being.

    It was a Bertuzzi moment for me.

    Hockey’s a tough sport, but there’s no place to viciously try to injure another player especially one in a vulnerable spot.

    Glad the Blues won.

  152. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nope, 34 year old perimeter non contact players are not in high demand but neither are worse players with worse contracts even if a couple years younger. I may be piling on Lucic but its deserved and I don’t think anything I’ve said is incorrect. Lets not forget, its been 3 years of Lucic being awful at 5 on 5 – he was just as bad in year 1 – his decent production was on a crazy PP heater where he literally doubled essentially all of his career numbers.

    He’s been awful for 3 years – I’m not sure there is anything to point to him bouncing back (and i was confident he would a year ago).The fact that he’s fallen off this massive cliff and he is now just hitting the normal decline years is overly concerning.

    Eriksson is not good – he’s that perimeter player you talk about but he’s produced at 3rd line rates, he’sgood on the PK and his can play tough minutes with high defensive zone starts.

    You are piling on Erkisson and I think what you say about him isn’t completely fatual.

    Why do the Nucks any favours their propaganda team has been selling this trade for weeks. Question how many GM’s take loui’s or Milan’s contract as is? I would say 24 out of 31 take Looocic

  153. Professor Q says:

    I am a very excited man right now.

    Good for Lowetide for booking this victory and I do hope he made a lot of money on his bets.

  154. Bag of Pucks says:

    You would have to think Kahwi sees a brighter future in TO now than LA with an aging LeBron and their management soap opera.

    Pull out the Brinks truck Rogers. You’re going to need it.

  155. Ryan says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    You would have to think Kahwi sees a brighter future in TO now than LA with an aging LeBron and their management soap opera.

    Pull out the Brinks truck Rogers. You’re going to need it.

    #wethenorth

  156. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ryan: #wethenorth

    My wife says Spicy P is the dumbest nickname she’s ever heard. Says it sounds like a urinary tract infection. 😊

  157. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is some dangerous thinking in my mind.

    Lets not forget, whoever we pick at 8 is likely two full seasons away from the NHL – we do not know the makeup of the team at that point – it wasn’t very long ago we were flush with wingers and had little organizational depth on the back-end.

    In a few years, both Russell and Sekera will be gone and one of Jones, Bear, Lagesson are likely gone in the expansion draft.

    Further, we all know I love following the prospects and I really do like all of the players you listed, however, there is one sure thing for the NHL, that’s Evan Bouchard.

    Most prospects fail, even those with arrows up in their post draft years.

    I don’t think we can fully count on more than 2 of them making it if history shows us anything – despite them each looking like good bets individually for some sort of NHL career.

    Bouchard – almost a lock to be an every day guy and extremely likely to be top 4 guy.

    Jones – it looks like he is or will be NHL ready soon but he isnt’ a lock to be an every day NHL guy even though it looks good and he certainly isn’t a lock to be a top 4 guy.

    Lagesson – he may be my favorite prospect, I truly think he will become a 22 minutes 2LD but he is no lock

    Bear – OHL d-man of the year means little – he has finished 2 years of pro and still struggles big time with the things he did two years ago – defending speed off the rush, dealing with speed on puck retrieval and battling on the boards.He may never make it and, if he does, I don’t see him being more than a weak 3rd pairing guy with PP time – his shot is lethal though

    Samorukov – he’s got the highest potential of them all in my mind, even higher than Bouchard in my opinion.He may never become an every day NHL guy.

    Sekera saying Lagesson is ready, the Ottawa 67s PBP guy saying Samorukov is NHL ready, internal correspondence that Jones is special all mean very little.

    All these guys (save maybe Bear in my opinion) seem like great bets in isolation – in reality its unlikely more than 2 make it.

    OriginalPouzar: Needs

    Wait. After all that love for the upcoming dman crop you want to add another d man?

    Sure, more d men prospect is better than fewer prospects but we are a long way off. We need forwards.

    Right OP?

    OP?

    Oh, your asleep.

    Don’t wake me at 3, thanks.

  158. JimmyV1965 says:

    Reja: Lucic needs a change of scenery but I know he’s not done and he will have a bounce back year with his new team or with the Oilers. 34- year old perimeter non contact players are not in high demand these days. Holy smokes your sure piling on Milan.

    Lucic is really not good. As bad as his foot speed is, his hands are worse. And for 230 lb behemoth he loses so many puck battles simply because it’s easy to strip the puck from him.

    Having said that, I would prefer he be traded outside the division. Beggars can’t be choosers I guess. If it’s Eriksson with no sweetener, so be it.

  159. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I may be piling on Lucic but its deserved and I don’t think anything I’ve said is incorrect. Lets not forget, its been 3 years of Lucic being awful at 5 on 5

    Could you clarify this point please? I realise Lucic hasn’t produced much offense since arriving in Edmonton, but he’s hardly been “awful” at 5v5 play IMO.

    TOI 3172:25
    CF% 51.10
    FF% 51.05
    SF% 50.62
    GF% 49.58

    CF% Rel 2.07
    FF% Rel 1.44
    SF% Rel 1.18
    GF% Rel 0.61

    Now we look at Eriksson’s numbers over the same 3-year window:

    TOI 2447:46
    CF% 48.78
    FF% 47.61
    SF% 47.29
    GF% 44.63

    CF% Rel 1.39
    FF% Rel 0.20
    SF% Rel 0.30
    GF% Rel -0.21

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    Bag of Pucks: The only failing imo is to not try.

    Some of the people you encounter in this life are inevitably going to be noise. Gotta get better at tuning out the noise.

    Quote of the day!

  161. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, thank you, but my point is that the player may not be available to come part way through draft plus 2 – either he sticks out of camp or we see him when his CHL season is finished (depending on his age).

    I believe your comment was, and I quote, “whoever we pick at 8 is likely two full seasons away from the NHL”.

    I believe that statement to be incorrect. Recent history shows that whomever we pick at 8 is likely ONE full season away from the NHL.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Why do the Nucks any favours their propaganda team hasbeen selling this trade for weeks. Question how many GM’s take loui’s or Milan’s contract as is? I would say 24 out of 31 take Looocic

    24 GMs are willing to take on Lucic for $6M? Why aren’t we trading him to one of those teams and getting $6M of cap space.

    They both suck. They are both massively overpaid. One is a 4th line replacement level player with name cache. The other is a massively overpaid 3rd liner.

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Wait. After all that love for the upcoming dman crop you want to add another d man?

    Sure, more d men prospect is better than fewer prospects but we are a long way off. We need forwards.

    Right OP?

    OP?

    Oh, your asleep.

    Don’t wake me at 3, thanks.

    I’m not saying to draft a d-man.

    I’m simply saying not to draft a forward if there is a d-man available the organization has higher on their list because of current organizational depth.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Lucic is really not good. As bad as his foot speed is, his hands are worse. And for 230 lb behemoth he loses so many puck battles simply because it’s easy to strip the puck from him.

    Having said that, I would prefer he be traded outside the division. Beggars can’t be choosers I guess. If it’s Eriksson with no sweetener, so be it.

    I’d prefer Lucic to be traded within the division because he is awful and an anchor contract – would love to play his 6 times a year.

  165. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Could you clarify this point please? I realise Lucic hasn’t produced much offense since arriving in Edmonton, but he’s hardly been “awful” at 5v5 play IMO.

    TOI3172:25
    CF%51.10
    FF%51.05
    SF%50.62
    GF%49.58

    CF% Rel2.07
    FF% Rel1.44
    SF% Rel1.18
    GF% Rel0.61

    Now we look at Eriksson’s numbers over the same 3-year window:

    TOI2447:46
    CF%48.78
    FF%47.61
    SF%47.29
    GF%44.63

    CF% Rel1.39
    FF% Rel0.20
    SF% Rel0.30
    GF% Rel-0.21

    His P/60 has been bad for 3 yrs, but fair point on the rest of his metrics.

  166. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: 24 GMs are willing to take on Lucic for $6M? Why aren’t we trading him to one of those teams and getting $6M of cap space.

    I think he means that, if they had to choose one of Lucic or Eriksson, more would choose Lucic. A bit like you’d prefer to lose a toe than a finger.

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Could you clarify this point please? I realise Lucic hasn’t produced much offense since arriving in Edmonton, but he’s hardly been “awful” at 5v5 play IMO.

    TOI3172:25
    CF%51.10
    FF%51.05
    SF%50.62
    GF%49.58

    CF% Rel2.07
    FF% Rel1.44
    SF% Rel1.18
    GF% Rel0.61

    Now we look at Eriksson’s numbers over the same 3-year window:

    TOI2447:46
    CF%48.78
    FF%47.61
    SF%47.29
    GF%44.63

    CF% Rel1.39
    FF% Rel0.20
    SF% Rel0.30
    GF% Rel-0.21

    Lucic has produced at 4th line rates at 5 on 5 for 3 straight years – that is awful.

    Yes, Lucic’s posession metrics are nice – he’s one of the few positive possession players away from McDavid – that’s been the case the last few years. Does that mean he’s been one of the Oilers better forwards? Certainly not.

    Lucic has been awful despite his advanced metrics.

    I’m not trying to defend Eriksson here, he’s not very good, but lets not forget, he’s played significant minutes against top line comp and dealt with higher defensive zone starts. He produces at third line rates at evens. Lucic produces at 4th line rates at evens. Eriksson has fantastic numbers, year after year, on the PK. Lucic cannot PK.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I believe your comment was, and I quote, “whoever we pick at 8 is likely two full seasons away from the NHL”.

    I believe that statement to be incorrect. Recent history shows that whomever we pick at 8 is likely ONE full season away from the NHL.

    My comment above was in response to your suggestion of the player coming in to the NHL part way through his draft plus 2 season – I was simply making the point that that may not be possible.

  169. jp says:

    Reja,

    I disagree, but don’t know obviously. Would love to actually know how NHL GMs feel about this one.

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: I think he means that, if they had to choose one of Lucic or Eriksson, more would choose Lucic. A bit like you’d prefer to lose a toe than a finger.

    That may be true as I do believe that some GMs value, sorry, overvalue, Lucic’s “intimidation” and “deterance”. There is little to no deterance. We’ve seen that.

    All I know is that, as stated above many times, Eriksson produces at solid 3rd line rates at evens while Lucic produces at 4th line rates, Eriksson kills penalties and has great PK metrics over the years, Lucic does not kill penalties.

    This team needs production in the bottom six and help on the penalty kill.

  171. Reja says:

    jp:
    Reja,

    I disagree, but don’t know obviously. Would love to actually know how NHL GMs feel about this one.

    After the Caps and Especially the Blues winning and you polled the GM’s I definitely think more would choose what Lucic brings over a 34- year old 10 goal scorer that hasn’t gone to the net Since Vegas was picking out their name.

  172. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks: My wife says Spicy P is the dumbest nickname she’s ever heard. Says it sounds like a urinary tract infection.

    Sounds like Gonorrhoea.

  173. texmex says:

    Reja: Sounds like Gonorrhoea.

    Clap clap clap

  174. Pouzar says:

    Gudas traded to Caps…someone check on Woodguy!

    EDIT: Flyers retain 30%

  175. jp says:

    Reja: After the Caps and Especially the Blues winning and you polled the GM’sI definitely think more would choose what Lucic brings over a 34- year old 10 goal scorer that hasn’t gone to the net Since Vegas was picking out their name.

    Shrug. We don’t know. We disagree.

    I’d prefer Eriksson because:
    1) One less year
    2) Scores a little more and has played tougher competition
    3) Is apparently an elite penalty killer (seriously, his results over many years are ~top 10 in the league).

    I’m not concerned about Eriksson’s age because I’ve lost any hope of a Lucic rebound.

    The two contracts are bad and worse. Plus Eriksson has some hope of helping in an area of need. But yeah, ending the pain a year earlier is a big deal IMO.

  176. Reja says:

    texmex: Clap clap clap

    Nice. Like Lucic and major sweetener getting traded to Van for loui loui watch what you wish for.

  177. jp says:

    Pouzar:
    Gudas traded to Caps…someone check on Woodguy!

    EDIT: Flyers retain 30%

    Niskanen for Gudas is a straight cap dump for the Caps, no?

    Niskanen 2×5.75M left. Gudas 1×2.38M including the retention I believe.

  178. Glovjuice says:

    OP, should we not be accounting for the half-decade age difference between the two players when attempting to determine their relative value to the Oilers moving forward?

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice:
    OP, should we not be accounting for the half-decade age difference between the two players when attempting to determine their relative value to the Oilers moving forward?

    What about the fact that Lucic has fallen off a cliff, for three straight years essentially, in his late 20s, which are suppossed to be the end of his prime years. He’s just now getting to the age where a decline due to age should be expected. My goodness, Lucic could fall off another cliff. If he’s this bad at 30, imagine how bad he’ll be at 32?

  180. jp says:

    Glovjuice:
    OP, should we not be accounting for the half-decade age difference between the two players when attempting to determine their relative value to the Oilers moving forward?

    It’s a bit shy of 3 yrs. Lucic turned 31 last week. Eriksson will be 34 next month.

  181. GMB3 says:

    I honestly sometimes wonder if all these people who believe Lucic still has value are all the same poster with multiple accounts

  182. Reja says:

    jp: Shrug. We don’t know. We disagree.

    I’d prefer Eriksson because:
    1) One less year
    2) Scores a little more and has played tougher competition
    3) Is apparently an elite penalty killer (seriously, his results over many years are ~top 10 in the league).

    I’m not concerned about Eriksson’s age because I’ve lost any hope of a Lucic rebound.

    The two contracts are bad and worse. Plus Eriksson has some hope of helping in an area of need. But yeah, ending the pain a year earlier is a big deal IMO.

    It won’t take the hard working folks in Edmonton long before they get sick of a 34 year- old on a Sedin induced retirement contract. This is just my opinion but I think we do the Nucks a favour and with the sweetener thing added as well can’t see a old wily veteran like Holland doing this. It’s going to be a interesting off-season in Oilerville.

  183. jp says:

    Reja: Nice. Like Lucic and major sweetener getting traded to Van for loui loui watch what you wish for.

    I was going to ask “who’s wishing for a major sweetener?”, but didn’t realize JP+Lucic for Eriksson had been floated. That’s completely crazy.

    IMO Lucic for Eriksson straight up is a win for the Oilers. But it’s still a junk for junk trade. There’s no way a significant sweetener should be added. Yikes.

  184. Reja says:

    jp: I was going to ask “who’s wishing for a major sweetener?”, but didn’t realize JP+Lucic for Eriksson had been floated. That’s completely crazy.

    IMO Lucic for Eriksson straight up is a win for the Oilers. But it’s still a junk for junk trade. There’s no way a significant sweetener should be added. Yikes.

    Oilers fans are being trolled it’s so easy and that’s how the tar and feathering before running a player out of town starts.

  185. jp says:

    Reja: It won’t take the hard working folks in Edmonton long before they get sick of a 34 year- old on a Sedin induced retirement contract. This is justmy opinion but I think we do the Nucks a favour and with the sweetener thing added as well can’t see a old wily veteran like Holland doing this. It’s going to be a interesting off-season in Oilerville.

    Eriksson got the big retirement contract off his 30 goal 63 point season in Boston, then failed to produce with the Sedin’s in Vancouver.

    Anyway, absolutely agree that Eriksson’s is a shit contract and that he’ll be a boat anchor. Also agree that Edmonton fans won’t like him or the contract. But we are there (and have been for 2 yrs already) with Lucic as well. I think Eriksson is more likely to contribute to winning hockey games going forward, and the pain ends a year earlier.

    Anything more than a late round pick or a C prospect as a sweetener makes zero sense to me. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that, and yes, hopefully Holland won’t go there.

  186. GMB3 says:

    Reja: It won’t take the hard working folks in Edmonton long before they get sick of a 34 year- old on a Sedin induced retirement contract. This is justmy opinion but I think we do the Nucks a favour and with the sweetener thing added as well can’t see a old wily veteran like Holland doing this. It’s going to be a interesting off-season in Oilerville.

    Eriksson was signed in free agency 🤨

  187. jp says:

    Reja: Oilers fans are being trolled it’s so easy and that’s how the tar and feathering before running a player out of town starts.

    Running Lucic out of town started around December of 2017 when he seemingly lost the ability to play hockey (in the 2nd year of his 7 year $42M deal).

    In the last 1.5 calendar years Lucic has scored 122-7-21-28. That’s less than 19 points in an 82 game season. This isn’t going to get better.

  188. Reja says:

    GMB3: Eriksson was signed in free agency

    Dan made up the contract Hank handed him the pen. Get in the game.

  189. Reja says:

    jp: Running Lucic out of town started around December of 2017 when he seemingly lost the ability to play hockey (in the 2nd year of his 7 year $42M deal).

    In the last 1.5 calendar years Lucic has scored 122-7-21-28. That’s less than 19 points in an 82 game season. This isn’t going to get better.

    I think he will bounce back a bit especially with a fresh start. I hope he’s traded but I think we’re doing the Nucks a favour in the scenario’s that are being floated around.

  190. Reja says:

    jp: Running Lucic out of town started around December of 2017 when he seemingly lost the ability to play hockey (in the 2nd year of his 7 year $42M deal).

    In the last 1.5 calendar years Lucic has scored 122-7-21-28. That’s less than 19 points in an 82 game season. This isn’t going to get better.

    I have a future bet with someone if Lucic gets traded I have him scoring 13 goals and 12 is a push.

  191. London Jon says:

    Yeti: I think he means that, if they had to choose one of Lucic or Eriksson, more would choose Lucic. A bit like you’d prefer to lose a toe than a finger.

    Depends on the toe and, to a lesser extent, the finger (or thumb).

  192. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Running Lucic out of town started around December of 2017 when he seemingly lost the ability to play hockey (in the 2nd year of his 7 year $42M deal).

    In the last 1.5 calendar years Lucic has scored 122-7-21-28. That’s less than 19 points in an 82 game season. This isn’t going to get better.

    He seemingly lost his ability to play hockey at that point but he lost his ability to produce at 5 on 5 (his bread and butter) prior to the contract kicking in.

    In year 1, he produced 1.21 P/60, good for 15th on the Oilers (11th with a 200 minute TOI minimum).

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I think he will bounce back a bit especially with a fresh start. I hope he’s traded but I think we’re doing the Nucks a favour in the scenario’s that are being floated around.

    In his three years, he’s produced (5 on 5 P/60) at 1.21, 1.3 and 0.97

    Two replacement level fourth line rates and a below replacement level rate.

    What signs point to any sort of bounce back other than a gut feeling.

  194. Tbags Funhouse says:

    Eriksson for Lucic is like have a flat tire on your car with no spare!
    Did you want the flat on the front or rear, left or right?
    Either way you have a flat. I’d rather a back tire flat, as it’s easier to steer (Eriksson contract; no NMC and 1 year less).
    Again, you can’t get motoring too fast until you change out the flat, sometimes that takes time (3 years or 4 years), and sometimes it can be better to throw on a slow leaking tire to limp through until you can afford a new one.

    Might be a shitty analogy, but I’m still celebrating Raptors victory and made sense in my head.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca