I used to do ‘reasonable expectations’ estimates for the minor leaguers. Can you believe that? I didn’t sleep much in the first 10 years after G7 SCF 2006, so would occupy my time running numbers and staring at the past provided by hockeydb.
Here’s what I wrote about Jordan Eberle on the eve of his first training camp: “The organization may handle Eberle differently, having him stay in the minors for an entire season before moving along to the NHL. If they do, I think it is reasonable to expect him to post a superior ppg number (close to or better than 1/1) based on his AHL totals as a teenager (23 points in 20 games). I also think it’s reasonable to suggest he plays fewer than 30 games in the AHL next season and is called to the show in early 2011.”
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Father’s Day Offer!
- New Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Jay Woodcroft returning to coach AHL Condors and be reunited with Ken Holland
- Lowetide: Looking at the Oilers’ options for the No. 8 pick at the 2019 NHL Draft.
- Jonathan Willis: How many of Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira can play top-nine minutes for the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A with Ken Holland: On the draft, buyouts, free agency and how to have a successful offseason
- Lowetide: Trading for Loui Eriksson: What makes sense for the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Differing needs of Oilers, Jets could create a trade fit
- Lowetide: How will Ken Holland build around Connor McDavid?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The top five players the Oilers could lose in the expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: What a trade involving Edmonton’s No. 8 pick might look like given Ken Holland’s history
- Lowetide: Hard Target Search: Finding the Oilers a centre who can penalty kill, help shape a useful third line, and serve in a mentor role
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How a third-line grinder launched the star-filled Oilers to their first Stanley Cup and a hockey dynasty.
- Lowetide: Is Zack Kassian the answer for the McDavid-Draisaitl line?
WOODCROFT’S FINE WORK
I like to monitor rookie crops, for me that’s one of the most important roles for the AHL coach. Jay Woodcroft had a nice crop this season, and he got a lot from them. That’s the job, the absolute point of the entire project. Developing NHL players in the AHL is something Jay Woodcroft apparently does well and there’s a chance he’s doing this work as a pay it forward to himself. If things trend in a good way, he could be the Oilers head coach down the line. You have to give most of the credit to the player, but Woodcroft’s kids flourished and we given ample playing time. Here are the rookies:
1 LW Tyler Benson (68, 15-51-66) A strong AHL season at 20 for an Oilers forward draft pick is about as rare as a playoff appearance for the parent team. Benson was quality in his first pro season, delivering deft passes and delivering results. A goal-scoring slump early in the year was corrected by 10 goals in his final 25 games. He has a clear shot at the NHL this fall.
2 RC Cooper Marody (58, 19-45-64) Marody has NHL hands, the only question surrounding his ability to flourish in the world’s best league is his boots. Not every player has to be a fast train, Marody could be one of the RH pieces on an Edmonton power play by this fall.
3 RD Logan Day (64, 7-27-34) Chaos blue can make plays and elevated the Condors power play (3-8-11, tied for second among Bakersfield blue). He has the skill required to push to the next level. The defensive part of the game needs to get tied down.
4 W Cameron Hebig (64, 11-18-29). A right shot deployed on the opposite wing at times during the season, Hebig started the campaign like a house on fire. In fact, in his first 10 games, Hebig scored 6-6-12. He was used in a complementary role afterward, but could emerge this fall as a feature player. He can score goals.
5 RW Kailer Yamamoto (27, 10-8-18). It was a disappointing season for the first-round draft pick (2017), but it’s important to point out he would have easily cleared 20 goals in a complete season (based on trajectory). He should have eclipsed Benson’s season total for points, but NHL time and a wrist injury caught him. Yamamoto will need to have a strong year in 2019-20.
6 RC Tyler Vesel (61, 5-13-18). College player arrived in Bakersfield and landed a support role on a (mostly) checking line. His shooting percentage (five percent on 100 shots) should improve next season, and he had an impact on both special teams in college. Has a range of skills.
7 G Shane Starrett (42, 2.33 .918). Along with Benson and Marody, Starrett would have to receive strong consideration for Bakersfield’s top rookie. Al Montoya’s injury gave him the chance and Starrett ran away with the job. He is in a solid spot to become Bakersfield’s starter next year, meaning a recall is just an injury or a slump away.
8 G Dylan Wells (12, 2.84 .909). It’s easy to overlook Wells’ season, but he survived and posted respectable numbers. He had a .912 SP in Wichita (ECHL) in 22 games. A solid debut.
9 G Stuart Skinner (6, 2.99 .879). Too small a sample size to draw conclusions, Skinner played a lot with Wichita of the ECHL (41, 3.16 .903) this season. He was the No. 3 goalie among the rookies, but his playoff performance was impressive.
PENNANTS!
I have argued for many years that the NHL should reward SC finalists by making them pennant winners—ala mlb. Back in the original six era, winning a Stanley Cup was fairly achievable, especially if you could hang around for a decade or play for one of the Canadian teams (or Detroit). Modern era? 31 teams, draft, it’s insane. The 2006 Edmonton Oilers won a pennant, so did Jarome Iginla and Trevor Linden and Craig Ramsay and Brad Park and Keith Magnuson and Brian Propp (well, he won a lot of them before the Oilers positively skewered him every spring). Pennant winners: It’s the right thing to do.
1 Montreal (11): ’68, ’69, ’71, ’73, ’76-’79, ’86, ’89, ’93
2 Boston (10): ’70, ’72, ’74, ’77, ’78, ’88, ’90, ’11, ’13, ’19
3 Philadelphia (8): ’74, ’75, ’76, ’80, ’85, ’87, ’97, ’10
4 Edmonton (7): ’83, ’84, ’85, ’87, ’88, ’90, ’06
5 Pittsburgh (6): ’91, ’92, ’08, ’09, ’16, ’17
6 Chicago (6): ’71, ’73, ’92, ’10, ’13, ’15
7 Detroit (6): ’95, ’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ’09
8 New Jersey (5): ’95, ’00, ’01, ’03, ’12
9 New York Islanders (5): ’80, ’81, ’82, ’83, ’84
10 St. Louis (4): ’68, ’69, ’70, ’19
11 New York Rangers (4): ’72, ’79, ’94, ’14
12 Dallas (4): ’81, ’91, ’99, ’00
13 Los Angeles (3): ’93, ’12, ’14
14 Calgary (3): ’86, ’89, ’04
15 Vancouver (3): ’82, ’94, ’11
16 Tampa Bay (2): ’04, ’15
17 Washington (2): ’98, ’18
18 Anaheim (2): ’03, ’07
19 Buffalo (2): ’75, ’99
20 Carolina (2): ’02, ’06
21 Colorado (2): ’96, ’01
22 Vegas (1): ’18
23 Nashville (1): ’17
24 San Jose (1): ’16
25 Florida (1): ’96
26 Ottawa (1): ’07
Winnipeg, Columbus, Minnesota, Arizona and Toronto are still on the outside looking in.
OILERS FIRST MINOR LEAGUE ROOKIE CROP, 1979
A long time ago when the earth was green, the Oilers minor league team was in the Central Hockey League and called the Houston Apollos. Al Rollins, a famous NHL goalie who coaches the Phoenix Roadrunners of the WHA for one season, was the coach. Here are the significant rookies, year one:
RC Mike Toal 76, 31-45-76. Led the Apollos in scoring at 20, and was recalled for a three-game look in the NHL. He had a short career, final season ’81-82. If I recall correctly, he was the recall when Mark Messier was banished to the minors for going to the wrong airport.
LD Charlie Huddy 79, 14-34-48. Huddy was in the NHL for good by 1982, and hung around for the good times. A splendid two-way defenseman, he scored 20 points in 18 playoff games 1985. A stunning find.
RW Cal Roadhouse 72, 17-24-41. One of the better names for Oilers prospects over the years, former WHL winger showed promise but injured his knee in 1981-82 and never did get back to normal.
LW Mike Kouwenhoven 29, 4-13-17. I don’t remember him but he did play for the Netherlands at the 1981 World Hockey Championships.
RW Kari Makkonen 16, 5-5-10. Finn also played a little in the NHL in ’79-80, I think he would have found his way to the NHL if he’d stuck around. Back in Finland, he was an outstanding player through 1991.
Old Al Rollins didn’t last, the next coach for the Oilers minor league system was Garnet “Ace” Bailey and the team played in Wichita (Wind). That said, Rollins gets credit for helping Huddy along, and there’s no greater acknowledgement for an AHL coach than a job well done with a prospect. That’s why Jay Woodcroft earned Oilers fans respect last season in Bakersfield. He delivered in the vital areas of being a development coach. He’s more than welcome back, he is a key part of the organization.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a rocking group of guests and another big game to discuss! Frank Seravalli from TSN will discuss the Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues and the frantic transaction fortnight ahead. Matthew Scianitti (also from TSN) will talk about the lid lifter for the CFL season tonight in Hamilton. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Eriksson for Lucic is like have a flat tire on your car with no spare!
Did you want the flat on the front or rear, left or right?
Either way you have a flat. I’d rather a back tire flat, as it’s easier to steer (Eriksson contract; no NMC and 1 year less).
Again, you can’t get motoring too fast until you change out the flat, sometimes that takes time (3 years or 4 years), and sometimes it can be better to throw on a slow leaking tire to limp through until you can afford a new one.
Might be a shitty analogy, but I’m still celebrating Raptors victory and made sense in my head.
In his three years, he’s produced (5 on 5 P/60) at 1.21, 1.3 and 0.97
Two replacement level fourth line rates and a below replacement level rate.
What signs point to any sort of bounce back other than a gut feeling.
He seemingly lost his ability to play hockey at that point but he lost his ability to produce at 5 on 5 (his bread and butter) prior to the contract kicking in.
In year 1, he produced 1.21 P/60, good for 15th on the Oilers (11th with a 200 minute TOI minimum).
Depends on the toe and, to a lesser extent, the finger (or thumb).
I have a future bet with someone if Lucic gets traded I have him scoring 13 goals and 12 is a push.
I think he will bounce back a bit especially with a fresh start. I hope he’s traded but I think we’re doing the Nucks a favour in the scenario’s that are being floated around.
Dan made up the contract Hank handed him the pen. Get in the game.
Running Lucic out of town started around December of 2017 when he seemingly lost the ability to play hockey (in the 2nd year of his 7 year $42M deal).
In the last 1.5 calendar years Lucic has scored 122-7-21-28. That’s less than 19 points in an 82 game season. This isn’t going to get better.
Eriksson was signed in free agency ?
Eriksson got the big retirement contract off his 30 goal 63 point season in Boston, then failed to produce with the Sedin’s in Vancouver.
Anyway, absolutely agree that Eriksson’s is a shit contract and that he’ll be a boat anchor. Also agree that Edmonton fans won’t like him or the contract. But we are there (and have been for 2 yrs already) with Lucic as well. I think Eriksson is more likely to contribute to winning hockey games going forward, and the pain ends a year earlier.
Anything more than a late round pick or a C prospect as a sweetener makes zero sense to me. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that, and yes, hopefully Holland won’t go there.
Oilers fans are being trolled it’s so easy and that’s how the tar and feathering before running a player out of town starts.
I was going to ask “who’s wishing for a major sweetener?”, but didn’t realize JP+Lucic for Eriksson had been floated. That’s completely crazy.
IMO Lucic for Eriksson straight up is a win for the Oilers. But it’s still a junk for junk trade. There’s no way a significant sweetener should be added. Yikes.
It won’t take the hard working folks in Edmonton long before they get sick of a 34 year- old on a Sedin induced retirement contract. This is just my opinion but I think we do the Nucks a favour and with the sweetener thing added as well can’t see a old wily veteran like Holland doing this. It’s going to be a interesting off-season in Oilerville.
I honestly sometimes wonder if all these people who believe Lucic still has value are all the same poster with multiple accounts
It’s a bit shy of 3 yrs. Lucic turned 31 last week. Eriksson will be 34 next month.
What about the fact that Lucic has fallen off a cliff, for three straight years essentially, in his late 20s, which are suppossed to be the end of his prime years. He’s just now getting to the age where a decline due to age should be expected. My goodness, Lucic could fall off another cliff. If he’s this bad at 30, imagine how bad he’ll be at 32?
OP, should we not be accounting for the half-decade age difference between the two players when attempting to determine their relative value to the Oilers moving forward?
Niskanen for Gudas is a straight cap dump for the Caps, no?
Niskanen 2×5.75M left. Gudas 1×2.38M including the retention I believe.
Nice. Like Lucic and major sweetener getting traded to Van for loui loui watch what you wish for.
Shrug. We don’t know. We disagree.
I’d prefer Eriksson because:
1) One less year
2) Scores a little more and has played tougher competition
3) Is apparently an elite penalty killer (seriously, his results over many years are ~top 10 in the league).
I’m not concerned about Eriksson’s age because I’ve lost any hope of a Lucic rebound.
The two contracts are bad and worse. Plus Eriksson has some hope of helping in an area of need. But yeah, ending the pain a year earlier is a big deal IMO.
Gudas traded to Caps…someone check on Woodguy!
EDIT: Flyers retain 30%
Clap clap clap
Sounds like Gonorrhoea.
After the Caps and Especially the Blues winning and you polled the GM’s I definitely think more would choose what Lucic brings over a 34- year old 10 goal scorer that hasn’t gone to the net Since Vegas was picking out their name.
That may be true as I do believe that some GMs value, sorry, overvalue, Lucic’s “intimidation” and “deterance”. There is little to no deterance. We’ve seen that.
All I know is that, as stated above many times, Eriksson produces at solid 3rd line rates at evens while Lucic produces at 4th line rates, Eriksson kills penalties and has great PK metrics over the years, Lucic does not kill penalties.
This team needs production in the bottom six and help on the penalty kill.
Reja,
I disagree, but don’t know obviously. Would love to actually know how NHL GMs feel about this one.
My comment above was in response to your suggestion of the player coming in to the NHL part way through his draft plus 2 season – I was simply making the point that that may not be possible.
Lucic has produced at 4th line rates at 5 on 5 for 3 straight years – that is awful.
Yes, Lucic’s posession metrics are nice – he’s one of the few positive possession players away from McDavid – that’s been the case the last few years. Does that mean he’s been one of the Oilers better forwards? Certainly not.
Lucic has been awful despite his advanced metrics.
I’m not trying to defend Eriksson here, he’s not very good, but lets not forget, he’s played significant minutes against top line comp and dealt with higher defensive zone starts. He produces at third line rates at evens. Lucic produces at 4th line rates at evens. Eriksson has fantastic numbers, year after year, on the PK. Lucic cannot PK.
I think he means that, if they had to choose one of Lucic or Eriksson, more would choose Lucic. A bit like you’d prefer to lose a toe than a finger.
His P/60 has been bad for 3 yrs, but fair point on the rest of his metrics.
I’d prefer Lucic to be traded within the division because he is awful and an anchor contract – would love to play his 6 times a year.
I’m not saying to draft a d-man.
I’m simply saying not to draft a forward if there is a d-man available the organization has higher on their list because of current organizational depth.
24 GMs are willing to take on Lucic for $6M? Why aren’t we trading him to one of those teams and getting $6M of cap space.
They both suck. They are both massively overpaid. One is a 4th line replacement level player with name cache. The other is a massively overpaid 3rd liner.
I believe your comment was, and I quote, “whoever we pick at 8 is likely two full seasons away from the NHL”.
I believe that statement to be incorrect. Recent history shows that whomever we pick at 8 is likely ONE full season away from the NHL.
Quote of the day!
Could you clarify this point please? I realise Lucic hasn’t produced much offense since arriving in Edmonton, but he’s hardly been “awful” at 5v5 play IMO.
TOI 3172:25
CF% 51.10
FF% 51.05
SF% 50.62
GF% 49.58
CF% Rel 2.07
FF% Rel 1.44
SF% Rel 1.18
GF% Rel 0.61
Now we look at Eriksson’s numbers over the same 3-year window:
TOI 2447:46
CF% 48.78
FF% 47.61
SF% 47.29
GF% 44.63
CF% Rel 1.39
FF% Rel 0.20
SF% Rel 0.30
GF% Rel -0.21
Lucic is really not good. As bad as his foot speed is, his hands are worse. And for 230 lb behemoth he loses so many puck battles simply because it’s easy to strip the puck from him.
Having said that, I would prefer he be traded outside the division. Beggars can’t be choosers I guess. If it’s Eriksson with no sweetener, so be it.
Wait. After all that love for the upcoming dman crop you want to add another d man?
Sure, more d men prospect is better than fewer prospects but we are a long way off. We need forwards.
Right OP?
OP?
Oh, your asleep.
Don’t wake me at 3, thanks.
My wife says Spicy P is the dumbest nickname she’s ever heard. Says it sounds like a urinary tract infection. ?
#wethenorth
You would have to think Kahwi sees a brighter future in TO now than LA with an aging LeBron and their management soap opera.
Pull out the Brinks truck Rogers. You’re going to need it.
I am a very excited man right now.
Good for Lowetide for booking this victory and I do hope he made a lot of money on his bets.
Why do the Nucks any favours their propaganda team has been selling this trade for weeks. Question how many GM’s take loui’s or Milan’s contract as is? I would say 24 out of 31 take Looocic
Rare moment of truth, here.
I never thought much about Chara or the Bruins in the past.
After his hit on Pacioretty into the stanchion, I developed a visceral dislike of Chara both as a hockey player and human being.
It was a Bertuzzi moment for me.
Hockey’s a tough sport, but there’s no place to viciously try to injure another player especially one in a vulnerable spot.
Glad the Blues won.
Toronto briefly forgets their LT pennant drought
Very cool Raptors! Well done!
The only failing imo is to not try.
Some of the people you encounter in this life are inevitably going to be noise. Gotta get better at tuning out the noise.
Nope, 34 year old perimeter non contact players are not in high demand but neither are worse players with worse contracts even if a couple years younger. I may be piling on Lucic but its deserved and I don’t think anything I’ve said is incorrect. Lets not forget, its been 3 years of Lucic being awful at 5 on 5 – he was just as bad in year 1 – his decent production was on a crazy PP heater where he literally doubled essentially all of his career numbers.
He’s been awful for 3 years – I’m not sure there is anything to point to him bouncing back (and i was confident he would a year ago). The fact that he’s fallen off this massive cliff and he is now just hitting the normal decline years is overly concerning.
Eriksson is not good – he’s that perimeter player you talk about but he’s produced at 3rd line rates, he’s good on the PK and his can play tough minutes with high defensive zone starts.
You are piling on Erkisson and I think what you say about him isn’t completely fatual.
Lucic needs a change of scenery but I know he’s not done and he will have a bounce back year with his new team or with the Oilers. 34- year old perimeter non contact players are not in high demand these days. Holy smokes your sure piling on Milan.
More like Pronger light.