Unfinished Business

Years ago, I had this boss who did things in order. No exceptions. Back then radio broadcasters had contracts and Albert (his name was not Albert) would bring up the subject of a new contract one month before the old one expired. Not 35 days, not 25 days. One month. He used to take his right hand, push his glasses straight back with his thumb and middle finger (touching only the hinges) and say “get your mind around this” and we would begin to negotiate.

Albert was a tough negotiator, he hammered me senseless the first two times and then I won after it (went above him to right a wrong, it was not his fault, but I had to quit, wait two years and then negotiate a better deal with his boss). He never wavered, we did the same dance every time. Albert made his to-do list, prioritized it, and proceeded to go about his business. You have to respect that kind of consistency. I know I did.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • New Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
  • Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

Ken Holland traded John Marino yesterday, it’s the kind of trade a manager makes when he’s clearing off his desk and preparing to head to the cottage for a few weeks over summer. Trade Marino, tell the milkman no deliveries until September long, take the propane tank off the barbecue and tell the neighbour he’s welcome to pick the apples while you’re gone. Ken Holland is heading to the lake, with one file folder left on his desk: A blue and white one with a small Finnish flag in the right corner. No one went over Holland’s head, but someone tried to do an end-around. I don’t think it will change Holland’s plan. He’s focused on getting value for the Oilers. It might not be out there this summer.

JOHN MARINO

Players are attached to organizations but over the years I’ve found they are most especially attached to the men who drafted them. So, John Marino was drafted by Peter Chiarelli and Bob Green, and whomever the eastern scout was in 2014-15 (Scott Harlow? I think it’s Harlow) and the player’s relationship with the Oilers may have walked out the door with Chiarelli. Holland may have chatted with Harlow, or maybe the team attempted to sign him this spring but it didn’t happen. My guess is the Oilers knew he wouldn’t sign here and are hoping the Penguins can get him under contract right away.

How good is Marino? I have a friend who scouts the USHL and feeder leagues, who also sees a lot of ECAC hockey. I reached out and he told me “Marino will play in the NHL” so this is a deal that could look poor five years from now. That’s the nature of those USHL kids from the USA. It’s a tough sell for Edmonton, just as getting Matt Benning was an easy one. John Marino is going home, these things rarely change.

JESSE PULJUJARVI

I remain convinced the best thing to do is keep him, but Ken Holland has to decide if he wants to divide Dave Tippett’s priorities (win and develop) with JP. One hopes Tippett saw the video and loved what he saw, and is convinced there’s a player there. It’s possible.

Or, Puljujarvi might spend the season in Europe.

Edmonton does need a RH center but the names available are flawed. Riley Nash is in Columbus with a $2.75 million cap hit (times two) and not a lot to recommend him. Nash does have a solid Puck IQ player card versus elites (27.4 percent of his overall time versus elites, 50.40 DFF percentage and DFF% RC of 1.50). You wouldn’t trade JP for him, and Nash is coming off a poor offensive season, but could help and shouldn’t cost a lot. He’s more No. 4 line than No. 3 line based on that TOI percentage against elites, anyway.

I wonder if there’s a deal involving one of the teams trying to sign their RFA’s. Edmonton’s cap room ($2.4 million remaining with the team at the 23-man limit) suggests a narrow window of opportunity. Vladislav Namestnikov? He’s pretty spendy.

LOWETIDE LIST: 2010 DRAFT

This is my list and year one is pretty much a tie. I’m not sure Pickard is more or less valuable than Marincin, and the first two picks are identical. I think people often view Pitlick as a reach pick, but he was a first-round selection on my list.

2011 DRAFT

My list saw more NHL games, but Klefbom>Beaulieau by a large margin, so Edmonton wins it despite the GP edge. The 2011 draft had a tremendous number of promising prospects who never got untracked, I think that is reflected by both lists here.

2012 DRAFT

One of the reasons I wanted to do the original list is to show that the Khaira reach selection worked well. Khaira was valued by Red Line but wasn’t a famous prospect. I give the slight edge to Edmonton here because of the Khaira pick.

2013 DRAFT

Edmonton drafted the better player in round one, but Buchnevich and Bjorkstrand give my list the edge. Slepyshev not developing really hurt the Oilers. I have no idea why they passed on Bjorkstrand.

2014 DRAFT

I valued Bennett because he scored a lot of points at even strength, but Draisaitl made this an unfair fight Halloween night 2015. Lagesson is the third best player on this list, meaning a clear win for the Oilers. In looking at this decade of drafting, one of the main positives for the Oilers came in choosing Draisaitl. It’s an Everest selection and they had compelling alternatives.

2015 DRAFT

Clearly McDavid made the draft but I’ve always been impressed by Edmonton’s scouts getting two good defensive (actually three) in the middle of the draft. My list grabbed Mangiapane late, credit goes to math. I’ll give the edge to the Oilers, because of the extra player.

2016 DRAFT

My list gets DeBrincat and that’s the biggest positive math delivered in this decade. Oilers did a poor work in the third round, too. A massive win for my list.

2017 DRAFT

I like both lists, but Samorukov is a very promising player and gives Edmonton the edge. Too soon to know. Yamamoto’s wrist worries may impact the long range look of the Oilers’ draft.

2018 DRAFT

This promises to be a fantastic set of picks to follow. I’ll tell you that five of these six names are progressing well to very well.

2019 DRAFT

Either math has identified Kaliyev as another home run ala DeBrincat or this draft will look silly five years from now. I like my combination of forward-defense drafting more than Edmonton’s because the forward came first, but credit where due the Lavoie pick is exceptional at No. 38. Broberg, despite being a first-round pick, is vague enough as a player for us to be truly curious about his season to come. Look for TOI usage, even strength goal differential and point totals in all disciplines.

SUMMARY

The major hits for the Lowetide list are DeBrincat (a monster), Bjorkstand, Buchnevich, eventually Mangiapane. My evaluation of math led me to Bennett over Draisaitl, don’t blame math, blame the bus driver. Over the decade, I like my lists and believe the process is stronger now than it was in 2010.

The Oilers biggest hit was the Draisaitl pick while surrounded by noise. That decision impacted the organization in a major way. Oscar Klefbom (over Beaulieu), Nurse (over Nichushkin), Khaira over pedestrians, Jones and Bear deep were also astute selections.

Which list do you prefer? Did math make a big enough difference to employ? Note: Much of the decade is to be determined, we’ll have to revisit a year from now.

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91 Responses to "Unfinished Business"

  1. leeinvan says:

    Really think the team should have drafted a top end forward in the first round, when you look at Nashville that has had an awesome D for the last 5-6 years, but have really struggled to find top forwards you have to worry the way the Oilers are going about this.
    I read somewhere the other day that the consensus is that Larsson will be left for the Seattle team to take. Why would they do that?
    If you think Seattle is taking him, why not trade the players for a 1st round pick.

  2. Woogie63 says:

    I like this look at BM and LT’s DRAFT list.

    What are the measurement on the DEVELOPEMENT of a player.

  3. Ben says:

    leeinvan: I read somewhere

    You can read just about anything, anywhere these days.

    leeinvan: the team should have drafted a top end forward

    They should have drafted the best player available in the first round. Maybe they did, maybe they didn’t. Plus, Nashville didn’t already have two 100-point forwards on their roster when they were building that D.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    I like this look at BM and LT’s DRAFT list.

    What are the measurement on the DEVELOPEMENT of a player.

    It is a complicated issue. I think Holland’s Red Wings showed far more patience than the Oilers in this decade, perhaps that’s a place to start.

  5. kashirat says:

    I’ve always wondered how much a player is a product of their environment. No disrespect to Draisaitl but would Bennett have become a different player today if he had been stapled to Hall or McDavid?

    Guess we’ll never know.

  6. alberta bound edmonton says:

    Compelling reading LT. Your idea of comparing draft lists sparks curiosity. I bet both you and the Oilers beat Button hands down although I like his work as well.

  7. norm_klassen says:

    We have 2 years to develop some forwards that can play with mcdavid or draisaitl.
    Imagine if RNH leaves in free agency?

  8. jtblack says:

    kashirat:
    I’ve always wondered how much a player is a product of their environment. No disrespect to Draisaitl but would Bennett have become a different player today if he had been stapled to Hall or McDavid?

    Guess we’ll never know.

    I think this is an interesting question ..

    For me, some players will make it no matter where they play or who they play with …. That would be the minority.

    for most, the opportunity, team, teammates, coaches really matter to their success ..

  9. Ben says:

    norm_klassen: Imagine if RNH leaves in free agency

    Hopefully they either start negotiating an extension when the window opens or they trade him. No idea why so many GMs (whose teams aren’t contenders) hang on to these guys and watch the asset evaporate on the hopes they re-sign.

    There’s some logic to the position that (if you doubt his willingness to re-sign) you trade him this year while you can still get close to full value, and he’s coming off of a strong offensive year.

  10. Brantford Boy says:

    LT, I have to side (although slightly) with the Oilers selections… pretty much for all the reasons you identified… with that said I favour defensemen… the no brainers in the first round were Hall (although I’ve been wondering lately about Seguin), RNH, I was preying for Klefbom at the time, I swayed to Ryan Murray over Yakapov but was happy with the pick. All the rest line up with who I wanted selected except the 2017 (sadly, I did not want Yamamoto) and 2019 drafts (there was skill on the board with the defense setup. I do believe Benson, McLeod, and Lavoie could tip the scales in the second round.

  11. godot10 says:

    leeinvan:
    Really think the team should have drafted a top end forward in the first round, when you look at Nashville that has had an awesome D for the last 5-6 years, but have really struggled to find top forwards you have to worry the way the Oilers are going about this.
    I read somewhere the other day that the consensus is that Larsson will be left for the Seattle team to take. Why would they do that?
    If you think Seattle is taking him, why not trade the players for a 1st round pick.

    Dream of Scott Niedermayer and you won’t feel so bad. If Broberg hits, thats who he is.

  12. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    I like this look at BM and LT’s DRAFT list.

    What are the measurement on the DEVELOPEMENT of a player.

    Where is the measurement of the dumb trades that through away useful draft picks for nothing?

  13. Brantford Boy says:

    godot10,

    Is the answer “Peter Chiarelli” or “Griffin Reinhart”, or is it both?

  14. godot10 says:

    kashirat:
    I’ve always wondered how much a player is a product of their environment. No disrespect to Draisaitl but would Bennett have become a different player today if he had been stapled to Hall or McDavid?

    Guess we’ll never know.

    I think Bennett is still going to be a very good player. He is just finding himself. Calgary handled him a bit like Puljujarvi his first few seasons. They didn’t put him in a spot, and they didn’t have a spot.

    If I could get one player off of Calgary…

  15. Lowetide says:

    Brantford Boy:
    LT, I have to side (although slightly) with the Oilers selections… pretty much for all the reasons you identified… with that said I favour defensemen… the no brainers in the first round were Hall (although I’ve been wondering lately about Seguin), RNH, I was preying for Klefbom at the time, I swayed to Ryan Murray over Yakapov but was happy with the pick.All the rest line up with who I wanted selected except the 2017 (sadly, I did not want Yamamoto) and 2019 drafts (there was skill on the board with the defense setup.I do believe Benson, McLeod, and Lavoie could tip the scales in the second round.

    I think the Oilers have a slight edge as well.

  16. godot10 says:

    Ben: Hopefully they either start negotiating an extension when the window opens or they trade him. No idea why so many GMs (whose teams aren’t contenders) hang on to these guys and watch the asset evaporate on the hopes they re-sign.

    There’s some logic to the position that (if you doubt his willingness to re-sign) you trade him this year while you can still get close to full value, and he’s coming off of a strong offensive year.

    Why would you trade a person entering the last year of a contract, even if you don’t intend to re-sign him? The player is likely to have a monster year. And as we have seen this off-season, cap space is incredibly valuable in the off-season for picking up bargains and creating value.

    Only core players should be locked up a year before free agency. And very good players if they want to re-sign.

    If Nugent-Hopkins wants to sign a year from now, I would sign him. But if he wants to play out his contract and test UFA status, I sure as hell am not trading him. My team is going to get that monster year leading to UFA status, not somebody else.

  17. Soup Fascist says:

    godot10: Dream of Scott Niedermayer and you won’t feel so bad.If Broberg hits, thats who he is.

    No. Think of a 6’3” 215 lb Scott Niedermeyer. Now, I don’t think many have the puck moving ability and smarts of Niedermeyer – it would be a lottery ticket if Broberg does. But he can skate. Watched him at the Hletzky last year. The kid is mobile.

  18. Ben says:

    godot10: Why would you trade a person entering the last year of a contract, even if you don’t intend to re-sign him?The player is likely to have a monster year. And as we have seen this off-season, cap space is incredibly valuable in the off-season for picking up bargains and creating value.

    Only core players should be locked up a year before free agency.And very good players if they want to re-sign.

    If Nugent-Hopkins wants to sign a year from now, I would sign him.But if he wants to play out his contract and test UFA status, I sure as hell am not trading him.My team is going to get that monster year leading to UFA status, not somebody else.

    Absurd. You (might) get one good year of a player vs. years of control over another quality asset. If you’re on the edge of contending, sure. If you’re the Edmonton Oilers this is more terrible asset management.

    Also, what about being the last year of your contract makes it “likely” that you’ll have a “monster year”? A highly successful pro athlete is going to finally start trying hard because it’s a contract year?

  19. Bag of Pucks says:

    In 2019, why would it matter if the F was drafted first? That seems an arbitrary bias.

    If you want a legit 1D, they’re best procured at the top of the draft.

  20. Victoria Oil says:

    LT – thanks very much for this thoughtful analysis the last couple days. I think it is pretty clear that overall the Oilers have done a pretty decent job of drafting since that silly Mitch Moroz 2nd round pick.

    But what is even more clear is that the Oilers, during this time period, have done an awful job of trading and have squandered numerous opportunities (two high picks for Reinhart plus a giving up a 2nd for signing Chiarelli, etc.).

  21. Munny says:

    Ben,

    Neither your nor Godot’s position is absurd without knowing the possible return.

    Or how the player and his agent value themselves.

    Or how the market will be constructed that UFA year.

    There are valid arguments for both sides… depending.

  22. Melman says:

    While allowing players to stay in the minors (or Europe) until they are ready is a key part of development, so too is putting those players in positions to succeed once in the NHL emphasizing how complicated it is to measure development. Would another year of playing with Derek Roy as his centre unlocked Yak? What if Jesse had lived with the Lucic’s (or Smyth’s or Finnish billets) when he first came to YEG?

    With so much a stake, it’s always been a little surprising when you hear things like the team getting JP language lessons for his second year vs. having an established network of player support in place for new kids landing in the show. Maybe they do and we just don’t hear much about it, but it sure seems obvious that taking every step possible to assist players in getting comfortable off ice will help their ability to focus on ice. Whatever that financial cost is to an organization, it’s less than Gryba’s buyout that’s sitting on the books.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Dream of Scott Niedermayer and you won’t feel so bad.If Broberg hits, thats who he is.

    I think Broberg’s “home run” equivalent is more Klingberg than Niedermyer.

    Byram’s “home run” equivalent is Niedermyer.

    Some of that is league bias.

  24. Munny says:

    Offense is soooo tough to read in defensemen at draft age. Shea Weber had 18 points in 70 games for the Rockets in his draft year. Broberg could be anything offensively. But with his skating there’s no way he’s not making the Bigs.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    If you want a legit 1D, they’re best procured at the top of the draft.

    NHL history suggests that statement to be untrue, or at least flawed.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know LT had Marino ranked higher than Phil Kemp but I’ve liked Phil Kemp ever since he almost made the US world junior team a few years back and then made it and excelled above expectations last year.

    Disappointing that they felt they wouldn’t be able to sign Marino but not surprising. Interesting they did this a year in advance as he’ll be back to school this year and the UFA date isn’t until next August.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am also convinced the best ending would be a kill and make up and have Jesse develop in the top 6 this year. With health and organizational changes, he’s set up for the pop.

    I feel Holland will move him for an underwhelming return and I’m hopeful it’s not the case.

  28. Munny says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    In 2019, why would it matter if the F was drafted first? That seems an arbitrary bias.

    If you want a legit 1D, they’re best procured at the top of the draft.

    BPA always in the 1st.

    This year there was little consensus on who that was where we were picking, so we’re going to have to rely on the scouts for now and for Time to eventually tell us how they did. Math, or at least the data we have available, is no help at all for evaluating Euro Dmen playing against adults.

    Considering the prospects in the system, we can be pretty confident that the Org’s philosophy was BPA, at least.

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    leeinvan:
    Really think the team should have drafted a top end forward in the first round, when you look at Nashville that has had an awesome D for the last 5-6 years, but have really struggled to find top forwards you have to worry the way the Oilers are going about this.
    I read somewhere the other day that the consensus is that Larsson will be left for the Seattle team to take. Why would they do that?
    If you think Seattle is taking him, why not trade the players for a 1st round pick.

    Larsson will be a UFA the summer of the Seattle draft, as will Nugent-Hopkins. I doubt either will be protected, because even if Seattle selected one of them there’s no guarantee that they will sign. In the Vegas draft none of the pending UFA players were protected and Vegas didn’t pick any of them.

  30. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    In 2019, why would it matter if the F was drafted first? That seems an arbitrary bias.

    If you want a legit 1D, they’re best procured at the top of the draft.

    Are you sure that’s not a top 3-6 centre forward.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Why would you trade a person entering the last year of a contract, even if you don’t intend to re-sign him?The player is likely to have a monster year. And as we have seen this off-season, cap space is incredibly valuable in the off-season for picking up bargains and creating value.

    Only core players should be locked up a year before free agency.And very good players if they want to re-sign.

    If Nugent-Hopkins wants to sign a year from now, I would sign him.But if he wants to play out his contract and test UFA status, I sure as hell am not trading him.My team is going to get that monster year leading to UFA status, not somebody else.

    I agree, except for a team that’s out of contention at the deadline. Let’s say we’re clearly out of the playoff picture and Nuge is having a monster year – think if all the great things we could get at the deadline! And then still re-sign him come July 1st, of course.

  32. Shane says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am also convinced the best ending would be a kill and make up and have Jesse develop in the top 6 this year.With health and organizational changes, he’s set up for the pop.

    I feel Holland will move him for an underwhelming return and I’m hopeful it’s not the case.

    Well OP, I’m not against the idea. But who do you think we have to kill to make this young man happy again? Chiarelli? Lehto? McLellan??

  33. Lowetide says:

    Shane: Well OP, I’m not against the idea. But who do you think we have to kill to make this young man happy again? Chiarelli? Lehto? McLellan??

    I mean, if we’re making a list…..

  34. Professor Q says:

    kashirat:
    I’ve always wondered how much a player is a product of their environment. No disrespect to Draisaitl but would Bennett have become a different player today if he had been stapled to Hall or McDavid?

    Guess we’ll never know.

    Draisaitl wasn’t stapled beside them (Hall played alongside him, right?), either, so, indeed. We’ll never know. Unless Bennett had gone back to the OHL without being injured, then had been traded to Oshawa, and then had dominated the playoffs and Memorial Cup.

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    kashirat:
    I’ve always wondered how much a player is a product of their environment. No disrespect to Draisaitl but would Bennett have become a different player today if he had been stapled to Hall or McDavid?

    Guess we’ll never know.

    I think there’s some merit to this question. I also think Draisaitl is the wrong guy to use as a comparison. IMO he would be a star anywhere he went. He’s one of the best passers I’ve ever seen and he’s developed a deadly shot that makes him one of the most dangerous offensive players in the league. Would Bennett be a better player today if he played with McDavid or Hall? Now that’s an interesting question.

  36. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Why would you trade a person entering the last year of a contract, even if you don’t intend to re-sign him?The player is likely to have a monster year. And as we have seen this off-season, cap space is incredibly valuable in the off-season for picking up bargains and creating value.

    Only core players should be locked up a year before free agency.And very good players if they want to re-sign.

    If Nugent-Hopkins wants to sign a year from now, I would sign him.But if he wants to play out his contract and test UFA status, I sure as hell am not trading him.My team is going to get that monster year leading to UFA status, not somebody else.

    After 35 years in hockey drafts, I can say pretty comfortably that the idea of players piling up big points in UFA years is more myth than reality. Many do, but many don’t.

  37. Primetime says:

    ArmchairGM: Larsson will be a UFA the summer of the Seattle draft, as will Nugent-Hopkins. I doubt either will be protected, because even if Seattle selected one of them there’s no guarantee that they will sign. In the Vegas draft none of the pending UFA players were protected and Vegas didn’t pick any of them.

    In the last expansion draft, Vegas was given the opportunity to speak to all UFA’s before any other team (except for the one already holding their rights of course). Therefore they knew whether they would sign or not before the expansion draft. The rules also stated if they did sign a UFA, it counted as the selection from that team. Vegas signed Deryk Engelland as a UFA and that counted as the selection from Calgary.

    I remember the rumor was that they spoke with Kris Russell as well. I believe his agent used that interest to win the Chia lottery contract he was awarded immediately after the draft.

  38. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: After 35 years in hockey drafts, I can say pretty comfortably that the idea of players piling up big points in UFA years is more myth than reality. Many do, but many don’t.

    Lucic in LA. Enough proof for any Oilers fan! -)

  39. defmn says:

    Lowetide: I think the Oilers have a slight edge as well.

    Yes, but the old businessman in me needs to point out how much that scouting department costs Katz versus what you charge for results that are reasonably close. 😉

    Really fun posts the last couple of days. Enjoyed both of them tremendously.

    As you have been going through this exercise have you identified anybody who has consistently hit it out of the park?

  40. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    HI LT,

    Thanks for the draft analysis.
    Based on who was doing the drafting for the Oil over this period, do you have a perspective on ranking the drafters that you could share?
    🙂

  41. defmn says:

    Flames sign Rittich leaving them with $6.1 mil to sign Mangiapane & Tkachuk. Some GM’s aren’t going to get as much cotttage at the lake time this summer as they would like.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    leeinvan:
    Really think the team should have drafted a top end forward in the first round, when you look at Nashville that has had an awesome D for the last 5-6 years, but have really struggled to find top forwards you have to worry the way the Oilers are going about this.
    I read somewhere the other day that the consensus is that Larsson will be left for the Seattle team to take. Why would they do that?
    If you think Seattle is taking him, why not trade the players for a 1st round pick.

    Who knows what the roster construction will look like in a few years – if Nurse is trade for a forward, for example, things look different.

    Also, the NSH example doesn’t ring true to me as the Oilers have McDavid and Drai for the better part of the next decade – that is some elite forward power that NSH has never had to build around – no offence to Forsberg.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    kashirat:
    I’ve always wondered how much a player is a product of their environment. No disrespect to Draisaitl but would Bennett have become a different player today if he had been stapled to Hall or McDavid?

    Guess we’ll never know.

    Wait a second – this may be the first post ever citing a player as developing better on the Oilers than if off the Oilers.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben: Hopefully they either start negotiating an extension when the window opens or they trade him. No idea why so many GMs (whose teams aren’t contenders) hang on to these guys and watch the asset evaporate on the hopes they re-sign.

    There’s some logic to the position that (if you doubt his willingness to re-sign) you trade him this year while you can still get close to full value, and he’s coming off of a strong offensive year.

    Of course, asset management is huge but lets not forget that $6M (or $7M-8M if speaking re-sign cost) is an asset in itself.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Soup Fascist: No. Think of a 6’3” 215 lb Scott Niedermeyer.Now, I don’t think many have the puck moving ability and smarts of Niedermeyer – it would be a lottery ticket if Broberg does.But he can skate. Watched him at the Hletzky last year.The kid is mobile.

    Jay Boumester will suffice as well.

  46. Bling says:

    One thing with Draisaitl is that he is easily a top 5 passer in the NHL amongst forwards. I don’t think that skill or its development had anything to do with being stapled to McDavid or Hall.

    Not too many guys can dish it the way he can, particularly on the backhand.

    Then there’s his one-timer.

  47. Bling says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am also convinced the best ending would be a kill and make up and have Jesse develop in the top 6 this year.With health and organizational changes, he’s set up for the pop.

    I feel Holland will move him for an underwhelming return and I’m hopeful it’s not the case.

    JP on a line with Neal and Nuge would be great.

    Neal says he wants to play RW, but he’s already defensively challenged and playing on his off-side will make defensive zone board plays more difficult.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broberg not in the lineup today against USA – will play tomorrow.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Matheson, Silkanen is playing center. Hope he has a good showcase.

  50. Mantis says:

    Shane: Well OP, I’m not against the idea. But who do you think we have to kill to make this young man happy again? Chiarelli? Lehto? McLellan??

    If you have to ask the question…

  51. workaroundaccount says:

    Just wanted to comment on the Calgary arena. Flames only make 11mil a year and based on that number would never be able to afford a new arena (at least no sane businessman would make that deal). The NHLPA is making the league unprofitable to the point where taxpayers have to keep it afloat. I hope they have their salaries cut in half or more next lockout.

  52. oilersfan says:

    Isn’t it obvious that Broberg would have been much better off developing this year in the OHL ?

    In one move he would be playing 25-30 minutes a night in all situations, PP, PK , against the other teams best players, getting used to North American culture and North American hockey, while likely dominating , likely getting a point per game, and growing in confidence!?

    By staying in Sweden he will likely play 15 minutes a night, he the 6/7 dman, no power play time , no chance to develop offensive skills, no huge improvement in confidence, no learning the Canadian game or improving his offi ice social skills…

    Seems to me that was an obvious choice. Holland said as much the day Broberg was drafted.

    I understand the oilers wanted to let him decide and if he were my son I would probably want one more year for him to live nearby before moving to a different continent, but selfishly as an oilers fan I would have much preferred for him to come to Hamilton and play for Staois.

  53. Side says:

    oilersfan:
    Isn’t it obvious that Broberg would have been much better off developing this year in the OHL ?

    In one move he would be playing 25-30 minutes a night in all situations, PP, PK , against the other teams best players, getting used to North American culture and North American hockey, while likely dominating , likely getting a point per game, and growing in confidence!?

    By staying in Swedenhe will likely play 15 minutes a night, he the 6/7 dman, no power play time , no chance to develop offensive skills, no huge improvement in confidence, no learning the Canadian game or improving his offi ice social skills…

    Seems to me that was an obvious choice. Holland said as much the day Broberg was drafted.

    I understand the oilers wanted to let him decide and if he were my son I would probably want one more year for him to live nearby before moving to a different continent, but selfishly as an oilers fan I would have much preferred for him to come to Hamilton and play for Staois.

    “growing in confidence” and “dominating”.

    Nothing shatters confidence more quickly than “dominating” an inferior league, where you can make up for your mistakes through physical ability, and than getting crushed when playing in a more difficult league like the AHL or NHL and realizing you still have a lot to learn. Stuff which you probably wouldn’t have learned as quickly playing in the OHL.

    Why not have Broberg play another year in Europe where he can play against tougher competition, work on his skills and reads, and then come over to NA for another year where he learn culture, language, etc.

    Broberg is only 18 years old.. he has plenty of time to learn a lot of the stuff you touch on while building confidence along the way.

    Most importantly, Broberg would be more comfortable playing in the league for another year. Unless you want another Puljujarvi situation on your hands.

  54. Soup Fascist says:

    OriginalPouzar: Jay Boumester will suffice as well.

    I think Boumeester is a much more suitable comp than Niedermeyer.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersfan:
    Isn’t it obvious that Broberg would have been much better off developing this year in the OHL ?

    In one move he would be playing 25-30 minutes a night in all situations, PP, PK , against the other teams best players, getting used to North American culture and North American hockey, while likely dominating , likely getting a point per game, and growing in confidence!?

    By staying in Swedenhe will likely play 15 minutes a night, he the 6/7 dman, no power play time , no chance to develop offensive skills, no huge improvement in confidence, no learning the Canadian game or improving his offi ice social skills…

    Seems to me that was an obvious choice. Holland said as much the day Broberg was drafted.

    I understand the oilers wanted to let him decide and if he were my son I would probably want one more year for him to live nearby before moving to a different continent, but selfishly as an oilers fan I would have much preferred for him to come to Hamilton and play for Staois.

    I don’t think it’s obvious. Playing 17 minutes against men in a top league can be more beneficial than 25 against his peer group which he has already shown (small sample) to dominate.

    The key is progression through the year and to earn the trust of his coach and top 4 minutes through the year.

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m of the belief that if a lottery pick is ruined by some mismanagement on what is really a relatively minor level they have issues.

    Many players don’t have it perfect. Many have it great and can’t do it right away like Patrick.

    To me with Yak and JP the problems are from the neck up, not neck down. They don’t want to play an NHL style game or can’t, JPs injury of course is a factor.

    I truly hope they can salvage JP because he could be a dominant winger. Or two way centre like O Reilly which would be brilliant.

    I’d say he’s gone though.

  57. Ben says:

    Bohologo: If RNH opts for free agency, the asset hasn’t evaporated, it’s just reformatted to six million dollars of cap space.

    Right…this is why the Eberle trade worked out so well.

    Not sure how this dissonance has become so prevalent here, but having the capacity to potentially acquire an asset is not as valuable as having an asset. It just isn’t.

    Particularly with cap space: either you’re handing out bad term/$ on a UFA deal, or having to send out additional assets in trade. Even if you’re leveraging cap constraints in a trading partner, it’s really doubtful that returns better value than trading a Nuge straight up now (if he won’t sign at a manageable number) would.

    Love RNH, hope they sign him forever. But they have to stop losing value on transactions until they’re pushing for a cup.

  58. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: Who knows what the roster construction will look like in a few years – if Nurse is trade for a forward, for example, things look different.

    Also, the NSH example doesn’t ring true to me as the Oilers have McDavid and Drai for the better part of the next decade – that is some elite forward power that NSH has never had to build around – no offence to Forsberg.

    Hey now, Forsberg was on 0 ankles and Kariya was unfortunately addled by concussions and PCS (although still great players even on Nashville). They weren’t that bad! Plus they had Arnott.

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ben: Right…this is why the Eberle trade worked out so well.

    Not sure how this dissonance has become so prevalent here, but having the capacity to potentially acquire an asset is not as valuable as having an asset. It just isn’t.

    Particularly with cap space: either you’re handing out bad term/$ on a UFA deal, or having to send out additional assets in trade. Even if you’re leveraging cap constraints in a trading partner, it’s really doubtful that returns better value than trading a Nuge straight up now (if he won’t sign at a manageable number) would.

    Love RNH, hope they sign him forever. But they have to stop losing value on transactions until they’re pushing for a cup.

    Great post. The last thing we want to do is take the $6 mill cap from RNH and spend it on a free agent. That rarely works out. If RNH is leaving, trade him for assets. If you suspect toddy that he is leaving in two years, trade him today.

  60. GMB3 says:

    Professor Q: Hey now, Forsberg was on 0 ankles and Kariya was unfortunately addled by concussions and PCS (although still great players even on Nashville). They weren’t that bad! Plus they had Arnott.

    I believe he meant Filip Forsberg. He’s talking about the depth at defence over the last couple of years.

  61. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am also convinced the best ending would be a kill and make up and have Jesse develop in the top 6 this year.With health and organizational changes, he’s set up for the pop.

    I feel Holland will move him for an underwhelming return and I’m hopeful it’s not the case.

    After the GM and other organizational changes Jesse’s agent beaked off and went public that his client in question does not want to play for the Edmonton Oilers. Holland is nobody’s fool he will do what’s best for the team and not let a 4 goal scorer dictate the next move.

  62. Woogie63 says:

    Defensive clusters

    Klefbom-Larsson-Nurse-Benning

    Jones-Bear-Lagesson

    Bouchard-Samorukov

    Broberg-Berglund

    Conveyor belt appears to be working

  63. G Money says:

    kashirat: I’ve always wondered how much a player is a product of their environment. No disrespect to Draisaitl but would Bennett have become a different player today if he had been stapled to Hall or McDavid?

    Remember how much fun it was making fun of the Flames for taking a guy who was too weak to do a single pullup?

    Turns out, it was a bum shoulder that cost Bennett pretty much his entire draft+1 season.

    I think that lost year had a huge impact on Bennett’s long term development (as you’d expect it to) and _that_ much more than the environment is what makes him what he is today.

    godot10: I think Bennett is still going to be a very good player. He is just finding himself.

    Disagree. He’s 23 and 300+ games into his NHL career. Occasional flashes of skill and hot streaks that taunt the Flames fanbase aside, I expect that he has now asserted strongly who he’s going to be.

    (statistical aside: my first/so far only article for the The Athletic was on Bennett – traitor! – using Bayesian statistics to make a prediction as to what Bennett’s scoring would look like going forward. He has come in well within but near the bottom of the predicted range since then).

  64. Johnny skid says:

    godot10: If I could get one player off of Calgary…

    juuso valimaki would be my choice.

  65. jp says:

    godot10: Lucic in LA.Enough proof for any Oilers fan! -)

    What are you talking about? Lucic had 55 points his year in LA. In the 5 preceding seasons he’d averaged… 55 points (pro rating the lockout). He performed EXACTLY as he always had. And yes, he got paid.

    The UFA season effect is interesting though. I don’t disagree there may be some effect, thought there are clear counter examples too like Eberle this year.

    It would be interesting to see if someone has done the leg work of looking into it in any systematic way.

  66. Lowetide says:

    Nuge and Larsson are fascinating players to watch now through trade deadline 2021. We have our own way to viewing this team and what it needs, Ken Holland doesn’t necessarily share it.

  67. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Lowetide,

    What do you think are the chances Kenny strikes a gentleman’s agreement with Nuge and Larsson to expose them in the expansion draft as free agents and signs them to extensions shortly thereafter?

  68. defmn says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Lowetide,

    What do you think are the chances Kenny strikes a gentleman’s agreement with Nuge and Larsson to expose them in the expansion draft as free agents and signs them to extensions shortly thereafter?

    Have to be a winning team with cap in order for that to be of any interest to the players imo.

  69. Lowetide says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Lowetide,

    What do you think are the chances Kenny strikes a gentleman’s agreement with Nuge and Larsson to expose them in the expansion draft as free agents and signs them to extensions shortly thereafter?

    Those kinds of gentlemen’s agreement deals usually involve someone closer to the end of their career. Nuge and Larsson have at least one major contract left imo. Doubt there’ll be a handshake beyond plans to talk after July 1 midnight.

  70. Material Elvis says:

    Ben: Hopefully they either start negotiating an extension when the window opens or they trade him. No idea why so many GMs (whose teams aren’t contenders) hang on to these guys and watch the asset evaporate on the hopes they re-sign.

    There’s some logic to the position that (if you doubt his willingness to re-sign) you trade him this year while you can still get close to full value, and he’s coming off of a strong offensive year.

    If the Oilers don’t make the playoffs this season, I doubt he signs an extension. He sounded very frustrated with the chronic losing on his ‘19 exit interview. Trading him next summer will have decreased value because of the one year contract. The only way he increases his value is if they make the playoffs and he goes on a heater.

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: NHL history suggests that statement to be untrue, or at least flawed.

    McAvoy 14OV
    Dahlin 10V Ristolainen 8OV
    Kronwall 29OV Green 29OV
    Ekblad 1OV
    Chabot 18OV
    Hedman 2OV
    Rielly 5OV
    Hamilton 9OV
    Jones 4OV Werenski 8OV
    Leddy 16OV
    Staal 12OV Trouba 9OV
    Provorov 7OV
    Maata 22OV
    Carlson 27OV
    Seabrook 14OV
    Johnson 1OV Zadorov 16OV
    Heiskenen 3OV
    Suter 7OV Dumba 7OV Brodin 10OV
    Ellis 11OV
    Pietrangelo 4OV Bouwmeester 3OV
    Morrissey 13OV
    Lindholm 6OV Fowler 12OV
    OEL 6OV
    Hanifin 5OV
    Nurse 7OV Klefbom 19OV Larsson 4OV
    Doughty 2OV
    Karlsson 15OV
    Myers 12OV Gudbranson 3OV

    That’s a fairly extensive list of D, many of whom are the best on their team, that wouldn’t have been available in the 2nd round.

    Given the run on D in this year’s draft, I think Holland played his board perfectly getting a blue chip D and then a quality F with Lavoie.

    The Oilers followed this meme that you should only pick Fs in the top 10 by picking 3 straight OVs at F. Not drafting D worked out so well that they ended up trading the best of the 3 for one of the D they passed over.

    Saying Holland made a mistake drafting a D this year with his first rounder is being too smart by half. Jmo.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    Further, if the argument is the Broberg pick was a mistake because he wasn’t the BPA at that slot. What does that say about the analysis earlier this week where the Oilers outperformed BPA rankings as exemplified by the MacKenzie list?

  73. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Saying Holland made a mistake drafting a D this year with his first rounder is being too smart by half. Jmo.

    I said I preferred my list, not that Holland made a mistake. I do think the Oilers got lucky with the forward at No. 38.

  74. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Further, if the argument is the Broberg pick was a mistake because he wasn’t the BPA at that slot. What does that say about the analysis earlier this week where the Oilers outperformed BPA rankings as exemplified by the MacKenzie list?

    Really wanted Zegras now we get to see him for years with the Ducks.Broberg is Raw and fast he could turn out to be a clear 1-2 that we’ve been so desperate to have since Pronger broke my heart.

  75. Rebillled says:

    Dwayne Roloson and Mike Smith would have been the same age in metrics on this team.

    I know some of you are going to look it up and say that’s not true.

    That’s cuz you looked it up in a book.

    Next time look it up in your gut.

  76. Brantford Boy says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed…

  77. rickithebear says:

    USHDP is a program roster that does not play as a team in a league competing for championship.
    It plays a series of exhibition games against various league teams, plays in international exhibition games, and roster players compete in IIHF events.
    USHDP had 9 players selected in first round of 2019 NHL draft

    Hockey Canada is a program roster that does the same thing.
    13 hockey Canada players were selected in first round of 2019 NHL draft.

    Zegras competed at IIHF U18 WJC
    He was #11 in points failing to generate a single goal.
    Recieving all his points from players who generated a goal.

    Raphael Lavoie ( 2019, #38) was 3rd in generating Goals @ 2018 u18 WJC tied with Jack Hughes (2019, #1), j. Berggreen (2018, #33). Lavoie and Hughes were 2 of the younger players in 17-18 tournament.

    For players on the USDTP their USHL production has not fully translated to NHL.
    Might be an issue of the quality of 2nd, 3rd line talent that 2nd, 3 rd lines of USHDP face in USHL.
    Players in USHL who do not play on USHDP have their age NHLE translate much more accurately.
    Like Kyle Connor.

    It is much harder to get an accurate age NHLE for players like Zegras.
    I am nervous of players like Zegras until the deeper roster affect can get a mathematical % to be removed from production to get an accurate age NHLE.

    But taking a Zegras is no bigger risk than taking lesser known age NHLE players in 1st round.

    Lavoie draft -1 and draft playoff season suggest 28g 60P age NHLE.
    His 3rd in goals at 2018 u18’s is further support.
    His inconsistent draft reg season age NHLE suggests 22G 50P player.

    Not bad age NHLE at #38.

  78. Reja says:

    rickithebear:
    USHDP is a program roster that does not play as a team in a league competing for championship.
    It plays a series of exhibition games against various league teams, plays in international exhibition games, and roster players compete in IIHF events.
    USHDP had 9 players selected in first round of 2019 NHL draft

    Hockey Canada is a program roster that does the same thing.
    13 hockey Canada players were selected in first round of 2019 NHL draft.

    Zegras competed at IIHF U18 WJC
    He was #11 in points failing to generate a single goal.
    Recieving all his points from players who generated a goal.

    Raphael Lavoie ( 2019, #38) was 3rd in generating Goals @ 2018 u18 WJC tied with Jack Hughes (2019, #1),j. Berggreen (2018,#33). Lavoie and Hughes were 2 of the younger players in 17-18 tournament.

    For players on the USDTP their USHL production has not fully translated to NHL.
    Might be an issue of the quality of 2nd, 3rd line talent that 2nd, 3 rd lines of USHDP face in USHL.
    Players in USHL who do not play on USHDP have their age NHLE translate much more accurately.
    Like Kyle Connor.

    It is much harder to get an accurate age NHLE for players like Zegras.
    I am nervous of players like Zegras until the deeper roster affect can get a mathematical % to be removed from production to get an accurate age NHLE.

    But taking a Zegras is no bigger risk than taking lesser known age NHLE players in 1st round.

    Lavoie draft -1 and draft playoff season suggest 28g 60P age NHLE.
    His 3rd in goals at 2018 u18’s is further support.
    His inconsistent draft reg season age NHLE suggests 22G 50P player.

    Not bad at #

    Lavoie will be the steal of the draft. We finally caught a break can’t wait to watch him drive the net and get some garbage goals. It’s been along time coming since we’ve had a forward with that skill.

  79. JimmyV1965 says:

    rickithebear:
    USHDP is a program roster that does not play as a team in a league competing for championship.
    It plays a series of exhibition games against various league teams, plays in international exhibition games, and roster players compete in IIHF events.
    USHDP had 9 players selected in first round of 2019 NHL draft

    Hockey Canada is a program roster that does the same thing.
    13 hockey Canada players were selected in first round of 2019 NHL draft.

    Zegras competed at IIHF U18 WJC
    He was #11 in points failing to generate a single goal.
    Recieving all his points from players who generated a goal.

    Raphael Lavoie ( 2019, #38) was 3rd in generating Goals @ 2018 u18 WJC tied with Jack Hughes (2019, #1),j. Berggreen (2018,#33). Lavoie and Hughes were 2 of the younger players in 17-18 tournament.

    For players on the USDTP their USHL production has not fully translated to NHL.
    Might be an issue of the quality of 2nd, 3rd line talent that 2nd, 3 rd lines of USHDP face in USHL.
    Players in USHL who do not play on USHDP have their age NHLE translate much more accurately.
    Like Kyle Connor.

    It is much harder to get an accurate age NHLE for players like Zegras.
    I am nervous of players like Zegras until the deeper roster affect can get a mathematical % to be removed from production to get an accurate age NHLE.

    But taking a Zegras is no bigger risk than taking lesser known age NHLE players in 1st round.

    Lavoie draft -1 and draft playoff season suggest 28g 60P age NHLE.
    His 3rd in goals at 2018 u18’s is further support.
    His inconsistent draft reg season age NHLE suggests 22G 50P player.

    Not bad age NHLE at #38.

    This may be the most coherent post you have ever written.

  80. pts2pndr says:

    oilersfan:
    Isn’t it obvious that Broberg would have been much better off developing this year in the OHL ?

    In one move he would be playing 25-30 minutes a night in all situations, PP, PK , against the other teams best players, getting used to North American culture and North American hockey, while likely dominating , likely getting a point per game, and growing in confidence!?

    By staying in Swedenhe will likely play 15 minutes a night, he the 6/7 dman, no power play time , no chance to develop offensive skills, no huge improvement in confidence, no learning the Canadian game or improving his offi ice social skills…

    Seems to me that was an obvious choice. Holland said as much the day Broberg was drafted.

    I understand the oilers wanted to let him decide and if he were my son I would probably want one more year for him to live nearby before moving to a different continent, but selfishly as an oilers fan I would have much preferred for him to come to Hamilton and play for Staois.

    In Sweden he will be playing against and with men in a professional league. He will also get more time developing his skills. The only disadvantage to us as Oiler fans is to be able to watch his progress. There is no harm to his career as I see it and gives him more time to mature in familiar surroundings.

  81. rickithebear says:

    Alrx DeBrincat
    Age NHLE
    I ignore draft -1 with Mcdavid push.
    Draft age NHLE 39G 78P
    Draft +1 age NHLE 36G 72 P
    Draft +3 ( NHL) 41G 76P

    Bob Mackenzie #33
    LT: #15

    Age NHLE says take him top 5.

    Till The Cancer I have made a list of N.A based competative junior league players.
    Driven by what LT preaches.
    Listed by total goal/ pt and even goals/ points.
    multiplying Goals by 1.25 (more pocession efficient) and adding assists.
    Then dividing by 2.25 to get a more pocession efficiency based age NHLE value.

    The age NHLE I present on here is not pocession modified.

    Check to see if Draft-1 matches the age NHLE of draft.

    Age NHLE said take Jason Robertson (6’2” 201Lb) @#22.
    Draft -1 ( .963) 27G 48P
    Draft (.713) 36G 70 P
    Draft +1 (.485) 24G 50P
    Draft +2 (.393) 26G 61P #1 point getter in OHL
    Suggests 28G 59P player.
    Clear choice for #22 by age NHLE.

    Bob Mackenzie #30
    LT: Robertson #55

    Scouting said
    30 more points than second best teammate on OHL team.
    elite scorer and in tight shooter.
    Great play making ability.
    Great skater with top end speed and exceleration.
    Big weakness first step acceleration.

    Good Shot at Dallas roster with his shot.

    Age NHLE is an important scouting tool.
    It allows you to apply a real production translation to NHL play.
    You can check to see if it is consistent year to year.
    Or if you see a distressing year to year regression in the case of Yamamoto.

    Once again my approach.
    Age NHLE and scouting identifying mechanics that may prevent translation to NHL.

    This process since about 2010.
    The Hall draft year.

    As LT said factors may cause them not to meet full potential.
    Hall fails to play at a steady 78gm per season pace.
    Causing him to average #2 forward season totals thru his career.
    He is a Top 10 production fwd once every 4 years.
    People who say he has allways played a risky game had predicted this.

    Looking at Eberle.
    Draft -1 (.917) 32G 63P
    Draft (.667) 33G 59P
    Draft +1 (.467) 22g 47P
    Draft +2 (.383) 23G 59 P
    From one of 15 most consistent Goal and point getters in the game since 2010.

    Not great overall speed.
    Great first step and in tight shooter.

    Look for the word great intight shooter from scouts.

    LT: educated most of us on scouting process and were to look for their words.
    Now if he would just look at age NHLE numbers for
    Draft-1 and draft,
    Then follow forward age NHLE progression in draft +1, draft +2
    Till we find out what we have in league equivalency draft +4 or +5.

  82. rickithebear says:

    It is allways fun to look at were our forwards rank ( fwd/D) offensively in the dgame after they were picked
    2005 #25 Cogliano #8 162G #10 385P
    2007 #6 Gagner #9 158G #8 446P; #21 Nash #24 56G #26 151P
    2008 #22 Eberle #2 209G #3 478P
    2009 #10 pujarvi #27 62G #33 124P
    2010 #1 Hall #4 202G #2 511P seguin is #1& #1
    2011 #1 RNH #5 147G #4 382P
    2012 #1 Yakupov #8 62G #13 136P
    2013 #88 Slepyshev #40 10G #41 23P
    2014 #3 Draisaitl #2 125G #1 312P
    2015 #1 Mcdavid #1 128G #1 372P; #16 M. Barzal #12 40G #6 147P
    2016 #3 Puljujarvi #9 17G #13 37P
    2017 #22 Yamamoto #13 1G #13 5P
    2018 #10 Bouchard ( rover – combo fwd/d) #6 1G #8 1P

  83. oilersfan says:

    pts2pndr,

    He will likely play 15 minutes a night on the third pairing with no power play time, on the big euro ice surface.

    How will this develop his offense, improve his confidence or give him needed experience playing Canadian hockey like he will in the nhl?

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersfan:
    pts2pndr,

    He will likely play 15 minutes a night on the third pairing with no power play time, on the big euro ice surface.

    How will this develop his offense, improve his confidence or give him needed experience playing Canadian hockey like he will in the nhl?

    The hope is that through the course of the year, he will earn the trust of his coaches and increase his ice time and responsibility. Learning to play defence and battle against big and strong me in a very good league has significant value.

    Playing against his peer group where he has a skill that is so superior to most (skating in this case) can also lead to development issues where one relies on the dominant skill and does not focus on the fundamentals.

  85. Munny says:

    rickithebear,

    LT has used and discussed Age with NHLe.

  86. Munny says:

    Bag of Pucks: That’s a fairly extensive list of D, many of whom are the best on their team, that wouldn’t have been available in the 2nd round.

    Given the run on D in this year’s draft, I think Holland played his board perfectly getting a blue chip D and then a quality F with Lavoie.

    The Oilers followed this meme that you should only pick Fs in the top 10 by picking 3 straight OVs at F. Not drafting D worked out so well that they ended up trading the best of the 3 for one of the D they passed over.

    I don’t normally bang the same drum day in and day out, so likely no one will remember this, but I’ve said since Rebuild 1.0 that not beginning by building from the back out was a huge mistake. And principally because Dmen take so long to develop. So if you prioritize them second or rather after the Forwards…

    For that reason when they drafted Hall I said they wouldn’t be good till Hall was valedictorian of the senior class, ie. the veteran player… likely with some new young magician at Forward capturing imaginations.

    I have no idea how that all turned out. I’ve blocked the memory.

    The Oil spent a ton of assets over that Hall generation, the cluster, trying to find Kevin Lowe… struck out on Musil, Marincin, and Reinhart… and paid an even more inconceivable price to get Larsson…. whew, mission accomplished. Thank fucking Gord.

    They never did find Coffey either, but KBomb + Nurse is at least a depth facsimile. Still Darnell is only coming on now. Sekera’s injuries were killer. Al

    Bag of Pucks: That’s a fairly extensive list of D, many of whom are the best on their team, that wouldn’t have been available in the 2nd round.

    Given the run on D in this year’s draft, I think Holland played his board perfectly getting a blue chip D and then a quality F with Lavoie.

    The Oilers followed this meme that you should only pick Fs in the top 10 by picking 3 straight OVs at F. Not drafting D worked out so well that they ended up trading the best of the 3 for one of the D they passed over.

    I don’t normally bang the same drum day in and day out, so likely no one will remember this, but I’ve said since Rebuild 1.0 that not beginning by building from the back out was a huge mistake. And principally because Dmen take so long to develop. So if you prioritize them second or rather after the Forwards…

    For that reason when they drafted Hall I said they wouldn’t be good till Hall was valedictorian of the senior class, ie. the veteran player… likely with some new young magician at Forward capturing imaginations. I have no idea how that all turned out. I’ve blocked the memory.

    They spent a ton of assets over the Hall generation trying to find Kevin Lowe… struck out on Musil, Marincin, and Reinhart among others… and paid an even more inconceivable price to get Larsson…. whew, mission accomplished. Thank fucking Gord.

    They never did find Coffey either, but KBomb + Nurse is at least a depth facsimile… still Darnell is only coming on now. The Sekera injuries were killer. Almost as debilitating as the performance in net (a good part of which rests on coaching).

    Thankfully, the prospect defense is now so chock, it will hit. Guaranteed. Especially if Samo can get there with some authority. No lock but the arrows are good. If B + B can eventually handle 1st comp, Samo 2nd, well the Oil are set

    All we need is for McDavid to have the patience of the Gords… some reasonable goaltending coupled with decent coaching… and there will be a future coming, like a train.

    I love the 3rd round bet this year on possible show-stopping goalie too. Holland really has a sense of this team.

  87. Fuge Udvar says:

    oilersfan,

    Didn’t we just go through this with Puljujarvi? There is still plenty to learn at the pro level in Sweden. Pettersson and Karlsson both stayed for their draft+1 seasons. Broberg hasn’t even cracked the top men’s club I’m Sweden. Let him continue to work on his game there then playing against 17, 18 and 19 year old’s.

    Maybe he has goals he wants to accomplish there instead of playing for a team he never heard of in the Toronto suburbs.

  88. Revolved says:

    I am as surprised as anyone that the Oilers drafting looks as good as it does. Thanks for the insight.

    I think we could have had even more complementary players from the later rounds if every manager had not been in such a rush to stop the losing. Building from the back and not giving away the players that worked out would have been a good start.

  89. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide: NHL history suggests that statement to be untrue, or at least flawed.

    Does recent NHL history? The way the game has changed in all aspects I’m not certain draft history is relevant past 20 years. In fact the cutoff might be closer to 10.

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