Head to Head: Oilers versus the McKenzie list

by Lowetide

Going back to the beginning of this decade, Oilers fans have argued the team would be more effective drafting from an “industry” guide as opposed to employing scouts. That’s a pretty big claim, but we do have Edmonton’s draft record and Bob McKenzie’s annual lists, so it’s possible to drill down and find out how well the team did against what some call the industry bible. Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • New Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
  • Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

2010 DRAFT

The McKenzie list graduated three bona fide NHL regulars who I think we can agree covered their draft bet. Edmonton? Full value for Hall, and some bad luck with Pitlick (who was in the range). The Marincin pick was off the board. A clear win for the McKenzie list.

2011 DRAFT

Both lists shine, McKenzie delivers two forwards and the Oilers gather up Nuge and Oscar. Both lists swing and miss once, I think this is a pick ’em. You?

2012 DRAFT

The 2012 draft was the weakest of the decade and that hurt Edmonton’s significant opportunity to improve. Now, they were hurting themselves too, but a stronger No. 1 would have helped enormously. The difference here is Khaira, who helps the Oilers pass BM’s list.

2013 DRAFT

I was a fan of MacT’s trades down and even though they didn’t work out the Oilers should do it again if the opportunity presents itself. Edmonton got a better first-round pick than McKenzie’s scouts and that fact wins the day.

2014 DRAFT

I was onboard with Bennett and the Oilers had their choice of player. We’ll never know how the conversation went, but whoever slammed his hand on the table and screamed Draisaitl should receive the Nobel scouting prize.

2015 DRAFT

What a tremendous moment. I know what happened afterward and I know you know what happened afterward, but that single moment in time was the power and the glory.

2016 DRAFT

This draft is too early to call, but if Jesse Puljujarvi can find his way and Benson emerges as a useful forward it has a chance to be quality. The season ahead is massive for the entire group.

2017 DRAFT

I like this draft for several reasons, but the most promising name from has changed since these players were chosen. I’m still a fan of Yamamoto, but that wrist injury is a concern and the Oilers brass aren’t trumpeting him. On the other hand, Samorukov has emerged as a top flight prospect and appears poised to pass some blue on the pro depth chart this winter. I think the Oilers have a real player here.

2018 DRAFT

I’m not sure who compiled the better list but am fairly certain both defensemen chosen in the first round are going to have an impact in the NHL. Many miles to go.

2019 DRAFT

The first-round selection will be discussed for a long time, Zegras isn’t Turcotte but he’s brilliant and skilled. Broberg’s offense reminds me of Klefbom’s, we just don’t have enough evidence to measure it. A massive stroke of luck to get Lavoie in the second round. The journey has not yet begun.

CONCLUSION

Using McKenzie as the comp list, we lose some of the strongest arguments against Edmonton’s scouting this decade. Alex DeBrincat wasn’t the top available name on McKenzie’s list when the Oilers chose Tyler Benson. The publicly available scouting reports on that day suggested DeBrincat was not the obvious choice. Math rankings, like mine, identified him, because there was no size bias.

The best arguments for Edmonton’s drafting in this decade are impressive. In choosing Draisaitl over Bennett, the club made a brilliant choice that wasn’t in agreement with the McKenzie list. I’ll also list Klefbom and Nurse as clear wins and Khaira as a savant selection by someone.

The McKenzie selections that reflect poorly on Oilers scouts are Merrill over Pitlick, Toffoli over Marincin, Saad over Musil. I don’t see a clear win for the McKenzie list since 2011. Lots of time for these two lists to seperate. Two questions: First, would you like me to run something similar from Pronman or Button? I don’t know if I can find all of them. Also, which group would you prefer? Leon, Klefbom and Nurse, or Saad, Merrill or Toffoli?

50-MAN ROSTER (50)

There are two slides and we’re still waiting for Jesse Puljujarvi’s 2019-20 destination to be finalized. If JP heads to Europe, or signs with Edmonton, the next transaction after it could be a No. 3 center added via the waiver wire or late pre-season trade.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s Friday! In summer! K-Days and sunshine! We hit the ground running at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will join us at 10:20 to talk Live Cam CFL football tonight (he’s part of the coverage) as well as K-Days and MLB trade deadline. Matt Iwanyk will pop in to talk about the Eskimos victory last night and an Edmonton team with Grey Cup aspirations.

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GordieHoweHatTrick

Gerta Rauss:
Larry Brooks
@NYP_Brooksie

Buchnevich in at $3.25 Million per for two years. Buyout window closes Wednesday 5 pm.

5:10 PM – Jul 26, 2019
=======

Doubt this affects the Oilers but I thought I’d throw it out there

Acquiring Strome would be hilarious

AND IDEAL

Genjutsu

Lowetide:
Slow going this afternoon, apologies for the plodding blog..

I enjoyed this quite a bit and would love to see button’s and pronman’s side by side comparisons in the future.

defmn

Larry Brooks
@NYP_Brooksie

Buchnevich in at $3.25 Million per for two years. Buyout window closes Wednesday 5 pm.

===========
Just to add EW projected his signing at $2,874,385 so $400,000 over the estimate.

geowal

OriginalPouzar: NTC does not require protection in the expansion draft – a NMC does.

They will need to protect at least one goalie that meets certain professional and NHL requirements mind you.

Fascinating. And bizarre. Thanks.

Gerta Rauss

Larry Brooks
@NYP_Brooksie

Buchnevich in at $3.25 Million per for two years. Buyout window closes Wednesday 5 pm.

5:10 PM – Jul 26, 2019
=======

Doubt this affects the Oilers but I thought I’d throw it out there

Acquiring Strome would be hilarious

GMB3

Scungilli Slushy:
Ovi is one of the best goal scorers ever.

Generational talents for forwards tend to be more rounded players. Ovi is pretty much a one trick pony. Bossy was an exceptional scorer, there have been many players with fantastic talent.

The knock on Ovi IMO is despite all of those amazing strong teams they couldn’t get over the hump, except when Trotz has him playing 200 ft and ‘dominating’ like he can if he’s engaged enough.

His spot in the pantheon is what he’s earned. Nothing to do with being Euro or Russian.

The real rip off is the D who don’t become considered that way as I see it, perhaps some goalies.

I entirely disagree. Part of the reason that narrative exists is because he is a Russian. Outside of McDavid he’s been the most exciting player to watch post lockout, without a question. He’s is physical, has great hands, tries unthinkable things, loves to shoot the puck, passion for the game etc etc.

If he was from Saskatoon, Don Cherry would have been in love with him

hags9k

*Chris Farley*

yeah. so uh. you’re not too impressed with his fancies huh? yeah.

FOR THE LOVE, OF GOD, SIGN DARNELL NURSE LONG TERM

Jaxon

This was great LT. Thanks. I’d like to see Pronman, Wheeler, and Button, but I’d also like to see how some of the math guys compare like Blue Bullet and Jeremy Davis. MacKenzie is better for predicting the outcome of the draft than the outcome of the best players in 10 years.

Scungilli Slushy

Ovi is one of the best goal scorers ever.

Generational talents for forwards tend to be more rounded players. Ovi is pretty much a one trick pony. Bossy was an exceptional scorer, there have been many players with fantastic talent.

The knock on Ovi IMO is despite all of those amazing strong teams they couldn’t get over the hump, except when Trotz has him playing 200 ft and ‘dominating’ like he can if he’s engaged enough.

His spot in the pantheon is what he’s earned. Nothing to do with being Euro or Russian.

The real rip off is the D who don’t become considered that way as I see it, perhaps some goalies.

Andy Dufresne

rickithebear,

Hey Ricki,

How you feeling? Better I hope.

How are the treatments going?

Reja

defmn: How close the numbers below are to actual signing numbers is a question but EW has a pretty strong track record on their predictions. Here is a list of the top 10 RFA’s still unsigned according to his chart. It accounts for close to 50% of the outstanding value of the unsigned RFA’s.

Once this logjam breaks I expect to see the Oilers to make at least one trade.

Mikko Rantanen – $9,931,903
Mitch Marner – $9,613,128
Brayden Point – $8,095,553
Matthew Tkachuk – $7,836,132
Charlie Mcavoy – $7,129,068
Patrik Laine – $7,074,053
Brock Boeser – $6,877,966
Zach Werenski – $6,844,122
Kyle Connor – $6,814,995
Ivan Provorov – $6,615,946

Total – $76,832,866.00

The percentage of cap money is doing a complete flip-flop. There’s going to be some damn fine forwards from 27-30 without a home or available for cheap.

OriginalPouzar

geowal:
I’m sure it’s been observed here before, but just realized Koskinen will be the only leftover NTC on the roster come the Seattle expansion draft. Fitting that Chiarelli’s last deal could be the last to bite us, (I’m hoping the remaining mess is gone except for the Lucic retention). Let’s hope Holland never signs one.

NTC does not require protection in the expansion draft – a NMC does.

They will need to protect at least one goalie that meets certain professional and NHL requirements mind you.

defmn

jp: Agreed. Plus pissing away the likes of Hall, Eberle and Petry for much lesser value.

Agreed. I thought focusing on the drafting issue was depressing enough. 😉

OriginalPouzar

PinkSocks:
Marino for a conditional 6th. Too bad he was moved, but who knows what he will become.If we can’t / didn’t intend to sign him, Holland is at least getting something in return.

It also brings up another damning bit of evidence that Chiarelli was completely incompetent.Rutherford makes the pick conditional on the Penguins signing Marino.Compare that to Hayden Hawkey, giving the Habs a pick with no conditions attached.Small details that may be insignificant in the vast scheme of things, but little things add up.

Those are not comparable situations – trading a college prospect with a year or two left vs. trading one a few weeks before becoming a UFA.

OriginalPouzar

KingerOilredux:
– This is interesting stuff. If one’s take-away is that our drafting this decade has been impressive, I disagree.Sure most of the high picks have done well. Drai in particular worked well (while Yak and Pool so far haven’t, and RNH is a very good player, but not a game changer 1st overall)

– From my perspective though: having only Jar and Lander to show for a decade of non-1rst round drafting is not successful.But maybe we are talking about different things, as the focus is the Mackenzie list vs our picks in early rounds

– Outside of the 1st/2nd round, anywhere from 4-12 players per round make it 4-5 years out

Can’t really disagree except I will note:

1) it looks like the org is just on the cusp of reaping the rewards of much better drafting outside the first round and development of players drafted outside the first round. They could all bust but that sees unlikely – the results of the last few drafts, outside the first round are about to show

2) Drai over Bennett was (is) massive and Nurse over Nukushkin (or even Risto in my opinion) is big.

jp

defmn: Whiffing on Yakupov and possibly Puljujarvi (still to be determined) and trading away a first rounder + for Reinhart are probably much more pertinent to the Oilers’ woes than what has happened in rounds 3-7.

Adding in the kind of impact those three pieces could have/should have had on the team is, to me, the real failure.

Agreed. Plus pissing away the likes of Hall, Eberle and Petry for much lesser value.

defmn

jp:

And in terms of the Oilers getting 4 mediocre players over that span, there are a number of teams who managed to find none. Drafting hasn’t been the issue for the Oilers. It’s pissing those players (and others) away that’s sunk the team.

Whiffing on Yakupov and possibly Puljujarvi (still to be determined) and trading away a first rounder + for Reinhart are probably much more pertinent to the Oilers’ woes than what has happened in rounds 3-7.

Adding in the kind of impact those three pieces could have/should have had on the team is, to me, the real failure.

defmn

Reja: I believe Holland has one more big move before training camp and it will involve Jesse plus.

How close the numbers below are to actual signing numbers is a question but EW has a pretty strong track record on their predictions. Here is a list of the top 10 RFA’s still unsigned according to his chart. It accounts for close to 50% of the outstanding value of the unsigned RFA’s.

Once this logjam breaks I expect to see the Oilers to make at least one trade.

Mikko Rantanen – $9,931,903
Mitch Marner – $9,613,128
Brayden Point – $8,095,553
Matthew Tkachuk – $7,836,132
Charlie Mcavoy – $7,129,068
Patrik Laine – $7,074,053
Brock Boeser – $6,877,966
Zach Werenski – $6,844,122
Kyle Connor – $6,814,995
Ivan Provorov – $6,615,946

Total – $76,832,866.00

jp

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Good stuff:Ultimately, does the drafting result in NHL players on your team: whether its the one you draft who play, or the ones you draft and trade for players who play..

– So I did point out that on top of Jar to be fair add Marincin, Gustafssan and Reider.,

– If we want to applaud the drafting prowess, and blame the organization development and/or management for trading away of some of those other (marginal) players that is more complete

– But however you slice it, the reason we have not been a good team is because in the 10 years only Jar and Lander have played for the team that were drafted in the 2nd round or later.

– Contrast that with Nashville for instance: Arvidsson, Sissons, Ekholm, Smith, Josi, Saros.That’s 6 guys who are above average not drafted in 1st round that make an impact.That’s huge

– Jets: Coop, Helleybuyck, Lowry, Chariot,

– Tampa: Cirelli, Point, Erne, Pacquette, Kucherov, Nesterov, Gudas, Palet

– Leafs: Dermott, Johnson, Brown, Leivo, Sparks

– Blues: Edmondson, Tarasenko, Bennington, Parayko, Barbashev, Dunn

– For all the good teams: they draft and develop and have quite a few players from their organization ex-1st pick that contribute to their teams success

– So perhaps you are correct that the Oilers haven’t actually drafted poorly this decade.Regardless, the drafting has not actually resulted in the team getting better.

– I don’t look our list (including those who moved early), and think we were good last 10 years out of 1st round, but to each their own.But I look at the good teams and I they did a good job

– I referenced this: keep all Gustafsson, Reider Marincin, Davidson etc:meh drafting is my take…Not one “great”You need a few “steals” in later rounds: all the good teams do

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005632.html

Yes, the Oilers don’t have much to show for the later rounds of these drafts. But again, drafting is identifying players who are NHL quality. The Oilers have been fine at this (not elite, but definitely not bad either). The pipeline is broken, but the “draft” part, the subject of your post that I replied to, is not the issue.

You’re also now including 2nd rounders in your lists of players. I was trying to provide what realistic expectations for rounds 3-7 should be. Much lower than you’re expecting. One 150 game player every 2 years (measured 7+ years after a draft). By that measure the Oilers have been above average.

It’s true they haven’t drafted impact players in the spots, but those are very few and far between. Only 77 players from the 2010-14 drafts have even reached the low bar of 150 GP.

Truly impact players from rounds 3-7
2014:
Brayden Point (TB)
Victor Arvidsson (Nash)

2013:
Brett Pesce (Car)
Jake Guentzel (Pit)

2012:
Shane Gostisebhere (Phi)
Colton Parayko (StL)
Andreas Athanasiou (Det)
Jacob Slavin (Car)

2011:
Vincent Trochek (Fla)
Johnny Gaudreau (Cgy)
Ondrej Palat (TB)

2010:
John Klingberg (Dal)
Brendan Gallagher (Mtl)
Mark Stone (Ott)
Fred Andersson (Car)

Maybe I missed some players, but the list is not long. It’s not reasonable to expect the Oilers to have one or more of these guys in the 5 year window. There’s 15 players listed, just shy of one every two teams over 5 years.

Carolina shows up 3 times. TB twice. Certainly the large majority of teams are flailing in the wind in the later rounds and hitting only very occasionally. Also, the teams above aren’t exactly a who’s who of the leagues best.

And in terms of the Oilers getting 4 mediocre players over that span, there are a number of teams who managed to find none. Drafting hasn’t been the issue for the Oilers. It’s pissing those players (and others) away that’s sunk the team.

Reja

defmn:
Just for fun I totalled all of the teams cap hits from CapFriendly & then totalled all of the projected signing numbers from EW’s site using his most likely # of years for the RFA’s only.

I couldn’t find a couple of obscure names on EW’s list and I didn’t factor in all of the LTIR contracts that can be manipulated to go over the cap but the general picture is interesting imo.

As of today the average cap hit for the 31 teams is $75,221,960 with a high of $84,397,199 for the Leafs and a low of $60,860,000 for the Senators.

The RFA estimates from EW comes to $157,526,263 for the 31 teams which divided by the 31 teams comes to $5,081,492 which added to the average cap already spent totals $80,303,452 or $1,196,548 under what a 100% cap spent league would look like.

I know there are LTIR calculations to be taken into account and I know some of the RFA signings will be different than EW’s site predicted and I know there are a few contracts that will drop off as new signings are made but these numbers don’t account for even one UFA signing and I think we all expect to see some of those come about from PTO’s etc. and considering that Thornton and Marleau are sitting in SJ waiting to see what is possible there.

Anyway, I thought it was interesting because we know some teams have no intention of getting to the cap limit which makes dollars even tighter so it makes sense to me that Holland is sitting and waiting to see what shakes loose late August or training camp.

Large portion of Oiler fans were underwhelmed with the Broberg pick, Sekera buy-out,Signing Chase, Smith and missing out on Connolly etc in the free agency game. There were many Debbie Downers on Oilers blogs this all changed last week with the Lucic trade the pressure on Holland and the negativity has basically done a 180. I believe Holland has one more big move before training camp and it will involve Jesse plus.

geowal

Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think its interesting that we arrive at different conclusions on this.Maybe I’m out to lunch

– We can all agree that some players got moved away early (Reider, Gustafsson, etc)

– Look at this list and compare to good teams I conclude we haven’t picked very good players out of 1st round: whoever you want to blame for what happened to them afterwards. Not one “steal”:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005632.html

Biggest difference here is one of you is looking for quality after the first round and the other after the second round. Longer-how many of the players you’ve been picking out were 2nd rounders?

Genjutsu

Leon Klef Nurse 8n a clear walk not sure the other three are even value for their contracts at this point. Leon alone makes a clear win. You can make a case for past contribution but current value this is not a contest.

PennersPancakes

Does the lack of impact players outside the first two rounds have more to do with drafting or development? Its nice to have Khaira, Rieder, Davidson etc make the NHL, and you need cheap players like that (hopefully they end up playing for your team) but it feels like other teams have more.

It would be nice having a Gaudreau, Braun, Ferland, Brodie, Kase, Andersen, Vatanen, Martinez type of player rise through the later rounds for the Oilers though.

Reading through the drafts and a lot of thoughts/opinions/analysis on it, I think the biggest weakness for the OIlers have been the 2nd round. 2015-2006 the Oilers drafted 8 times in the second round (3 selections in 2010) and other than Jeff Petry those players combined for a total of 606GP and none of those players were ever top 6F or top 4D.

Hopefully Benson, Mcleod, and Lavoie start to change this trend.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Chris:
I think what is demonstrated by this exercise is really that it has not been the inability of the Oilers scouts to find players, it has been the Oilers Gm’s penchants fir squandering them which has been the bane of this team since 2010 or so.

– I think its interesting that we arrive at different conclusions on this.Maybe I’m out to lunch

– We can all agree that some players got moved away early (Reider, Gustafsson, etc)

– Look at this list and compare to good teams I conclude we haven’t picked very good players out of 1st round: whoever you want to blame for what happened to them afterwards. Not one “steal”:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005632.html

Pescador

Professor Q: Added Smithson for a 2nd though, and didn’t re-sign him. Maybe it was a 3rd? But still.

It was a 4th
Remember it like it was yesterday
good times

Bag of Pucks

Professor Q: Ovechkin was definitely in the conversation. That’s why Florida tried to circumvent the draft to get him. He was seen as that good to be worth it. Did people try that with Crosby? No.

They didn’t even try it with Lindros or others. There were many things tried with Gretzky, and that’s the only one I can think of. Well, other than earlier weird rules and tricky stuff before the draft with regional rights and trading for weird stuff.

Then after his rookie season, it was simply ridiculous. Even came over before Malkin. Domination since day 1.

Ovechkin was undoubtedly a coveted pick. Most 1OVs are. But i think you’d be very hard pressed to find any reportage describing him as a generational talent before or at that draft. He’s definitely earned that title from day 1 as a pro however.

Florida trying to circumvent the draft is more a commentary on Dudley’s desperation than Ovey himself imo.

The term Generational which suggests once in a generation seems flawed. Crosby and Ovey from the same generation. Gretzky and Lemieux ditto.

But if it has use, it seems to describe phenoms who are recognized at draft age as certain Hall of Famers and perennial Hart Trophy candidates. They’re not just possible Hall of Famers. They’re players that define their positions and rewrite the record books.

The good news in all of this is we have one again and possibly a second if Leon continues to score like the Great 8! ☺

Chris

I think what is demonstrated by this exercise is really that it has not been the inability of the Oilers scouts to find players, it has been the Oilers Gm’s penchants fir squandering them which has been the bane of this team since 2010 or so.

defmn

Just for fun I totalled all of the teams cap hits from CapFriendly & then totalled all of the projected signing numbers from EW’s site using his most likely # of years for the RFA’s only.

I couldn’t find a couple of obscure names on EW’s list and I didn’t factor in all of the LTIR contracts that can be manipulated to go over the cap but the general picture is interesting imo.

As of today the average cap hit for the 31 teams is $75,221,960 with a high of $84,397,199 for the Leafs and a low of $60,860,000 for the Senators.

The RFA estimates from EW comes to $157,526,263 for the 31 teams which divided by the 31 teams comes to $5,081,492 which added to the average cap already spent totals $80,303,452 or $1,196,548 under what a 100% cap spent league would look like.

I know there are LTIR calculations to be taken into account and I know some of the RFA signings will be different than EW’s site predicted and I know there are a few contracts that will drop off as new signings are made but these numbers don’t account for even one UFA signing and I think we all expect to see some of those come about from PTO’s etc. and considering that Thornton and Marleau are sitting in SJ waiting to see what is possible there.

Anyway, I thought it was interesting because we know some teams have no intention of getting to the cap limit which makes dollars even tighter so it makes sense to me that Holland is sitting and waiting to see what shakes loose late August or training camp.

Kinger_Oil.redux

jp:

I don’t see a strong argument that the Oilers have actually drafted poorly this decade. And yes, it would be much easier to argue the Oilers drafted well, even in later rounds. Disagree if you like, but these are the numbers.

– Good stuff: Ultimately, does the drafting result in NHL players on your team: whether its the one you draft who play, or the ones you draft and trade for players who play..

– So I did point out that on top of Jar to be fair add Marincin, Gustafssan and Reider.,

– If we want to applaud the drafting prowess, and blame the organization development and/or management for trading away of some of those other (marginal) players that is more complete

– But however you slice it, the reason we have not been a good team is because in the 10 years only Jar and Lander have played for the team that were drafted in the 2nd round or later.

– Contrast that with Nashville for instance: Arvidsson, Sissons, Ekholm, Smith, Josi, Saros. That’s 6 guys who are above average not drafted in 1st round that make an impact. That’s huge

– Jets: Coop, Helleybuyck, Lowry, Chariot,

– Tampa: Cirelli, Point, Erne, Pacquette, Kucherov, Nesterov, Gudas, Palet

– Leafs: Dermott, Johnson, Brown, Leivo, Sparks

– Blues: Edmondson, Tarasenko, Bennington, Parayko, Barbashev, Dunn

– For all the good teams: they draft and develop and have quite a few players from their organization ex-1st pick that contribute to their teams success

– So perhaps you are correct that the Oilers haven’t actually drafted poorly this decade. Regardless, the drafting has not actually resulted in the team getting better.

– I don’t look our list (including those who moved early), and think we were good last 10 years out of 1st round, but to each their own. But I look at the good teams and I they did a good job

– I referenced this: keep all Gustafsson, Reider Marincin, Davidson etc:meh drafting is my take…Not one “great” You need a few “steals” in later rounds: all the good teams do

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005632.html

geowal

I’m sure it’s been observed here before, but just realized Koskinen will be the only leftover NTC on the roster come the Seattle expansion draft. Fitting that Chiarelli’s last deal could be the last to bite us, (I’m hoping the remaining mess is gone except for the Lucic retention). Let’s hope Holland never signs one.

Primetime

Professor Q: I’m not sure what’s going on there, as LT has BM’s #51 listed as both (78 and 84).

Unless LT and BM were so excited about Ostap Safin that they wanted Edmonton to draft him twice in the same year?

I’m not sure what LT is showing, actually.

Think you are missing the point of the exercise professor. LT is showing who the Oilers picked vs. who was the next best player available on the MacKenzie list. At pick #78, the best available player on BM list was Safin, but the Oilers chose Skinner (ranked 71). By the time the Oil drafted again at pick 84, Safin still hadn’t been picked so he is still listed as the best available at that slot. The Oil chose Samurokov instead (ranked 76 by BM, lower than Safin).

Remains to be seen if we were lucky that Safin was STILL available for us at a lower draft pick.

Professor Q

Lowetide: Ostap Safin was No. 51 on McKenzie’s list. He remained the top option until he was chosen.

https://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-draft-ranking-top-93-and-honourable-mentions-1.778987/kchow-template-100-1.778987

I figured so after I posted, but had to head off back to work (I couldn’t amend the post). Thanks again!

Professor Q

Bag of Pucks: He definitely is in retrospect, but he wasn’t described as such at the time of his drafting. And in the dialogue on generational players, it tends to be the usual suspects: Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, McDavid with Ovey not in the conversation.

Lindros was actually considered generational at the time of his draft.

It’s also a term too biased towards Fs. Roy, Brodeur, Lidstrom, Pronger, Bourque were all generational talents.

Ovechkin was definitely in the conversation. That’s why Florida tried to circumvent the draft to get him. He was seen as that good to be worth it. Did people try that with Crosby? No.

They didn’t even try it with Lindros or others. There were many things tried with Gretzky, and that’s the only one I can think of. Well, other than earlier weird rules and tricky stuff before the draft with regional rights and trading for weird stuff.

Then after his rookie season, it was simply ridiculous. Even came over before Malkin. Domination since Day 1.

jp

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– This is interesting stuff. If one’s take-away is that our drafting this decade has been impressive, I disagree.Sure most of the high picks have done well. Drai in particular worked well (while Yak and Pool so far haven’t, and RNH is a very good player, but not a game changer 1st overall)

– From my perspective though: having only Jar and Lander to show for a decade of non-1rst round drafting is not successful.But maybe we are talking about different things, as the focus is the Mackenzie list vs our picks in early rounds

– Outside of the 1st/2nd round, anywhere from 4-12 players per round make it 4-5 years out

You’re conflating drafting with holding on to the players though. The Oilers drafting outside the top 2 rounds has been fine in the past decade.

You used 150 games as marker the other day. Yes, only a few Oilers picks have done that with the Oilers, but since 2010 they have drafted Khaira, Gustafsson, Rieder and Davidson in rounds 3-7. Sending those players away was the issue, not finding them.

Your expectations are also inflated. The only player drafted 2015-19 outside rounds 3-7 to play 150 games is Markus Nutivarra who was 21 when picked in 2015.

From 2014 only 4 players drafted rounds 3-7 have gotten to 150 games.

2013 has 11 so far. Slepyshev got to 102 games from pick #88. Only 7 players picked after him have played more than 102.

22 players drafted from 2012 rounds 3-7 have gotten to 150 games. Less than one player per team. The Oilers drafted 2 of them.

From 2011 also 22 players from rounds 3-7 have gotten to 150 games. Rieder was one of those.

And from 2010 there were 18 players from rounds 3-7 who played 18 games. Oilers picked Davidson.

So in the 5 drafts 2010-2014 there are only 77 total players drafted after round 2 who’ve played 150 games. That’s about 3 players per round per year. 4 players per round if you go back beyond 7 years.

It also means the average team drafted 2.5 total players from those 5 drafts. One player every 2 years. The Oilers got 4 of the, so better than average by this measure at least.

I believe the only NHL teams to draft more than 4 players those 5 years were:
Chicago (5)
Columbus (5)
Pittsburgh (5)

I don’t see a strong argument that the Oilers have actually drafted poorly this decade. And yes, it would be much easier to argue the Oilers drafted well, even in later rounds. Disagree if you like, but these are the numbers.

rickithebear

Comparing Hockey analytics to baseball is Not a fair comparison.

In baseball a game of binary actions.
All the large affect variables are played the same way by all teams.
Now it is the marginal gains that make the difference by full season.

Then the playoffs are a top 3 starters dominate rotation rather than 5 deep.
I would demand the natural rotation be maintained in playoffs.
Your top 2 see 2 games each with 6 &. 7 can be theirs.

In hockey Their are clear 100% to 500% result variance variables that not all teams play the same.
So until teams play the large factors the same.
Marginal increases are not the influence that you see in Baseball.

Understanding the marginal gains are important from learning the game point of view.
It might not make any difference to winning.

Revolved

To ask again from last thread: Does anyone know if puck and player tracking data will be publicly available? Will it be live streamed live streamed like the shot attempt data? This could produce a pretty huge market for nerds like us and teams alike. It would be a huge competitive advantage to be the first to properly utilize such a data set.

rickithebear

Age NHLE for CHL forwards with conversion indicated
Yamamotto
Draft -1 (.760) 21G 77P
Draft (.510) 21G 64P
Draft +1 (.404) 18G 55P
A year after year regression
Tough AHL season but age adjustment needed
Draft +2 AHL 18G 34P

Safin
Draft +1 (.440) 15G 34P
Draft +2 (.370) 7G 24P
If he only gets even time what is he.
A healthy first pro year will be A quick measure of what he is.

Makimov
Draft -1 (.927) 9 G 30 P
Draft (.677) 29G 42P
Draft +1 (.471) 22G 50p
Draft +2 ( .385) 22G 42P
I see needed winger goal scoring.

Benson
Draft -1 (.875) 16G 52P
Draft ( .625) 16G 48 P
Draft +1 (.450) 13G 48P
Draft +2 (.375) 15G 37P
Draft +3 11G 42P
Draft & -1 suggest 16G 50P
Draft+1 to +3 suggest 13G 42P
42 PT is 31st to 35th ranked LW last 2 seasons.

But footspeed is the game.
That is were video and game scouting of mechanics is important in the draft.

till_horcoff_is_coach

Fantastic content for Mid-summer LT. I agree with general consensus here that Oilers beat the BM list – especially if you consider the agony that would be if Oil had Bennett and Flames took Drai.

I would be interested in how your list stands up over these years plus a few before 2010. Also the suggestion to see Detroit’s success over the same period is also intriguing.

Lastly I would toss the idea that measuring salaries earned or current cap hit would be interesting measurement tool over GP for the older players as it would show how much organizations might value the players (still a problem with overpaying gms but interesting nonetheless.

Side

Professor Q: I’m not sure what’s going on there, as LT has BM’s #51 listed as both (78 and 84).

Unless LT and BM were so excited about Ostap Safin that they wanted Edmonton to draft him twice in the same year?

Seems like this is not the case:

https://lowetide.ca/2017/06/07/a-hazy-shade-of-winter/

LT (78-84):

RC Nathan Schnarr, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big center with speed, a little shy offensively.

LC Jordy Bellerive, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Undersized, nifty and aggressive F with skill.

LD Jack Rathbone, Dexter School (USHS). A bullet on skates, very skilled.

LD Robin Salo, Sport Vaasa (SML). Two-way defender, mature.

LD Cameron Crotty, Brockville Braves (CCHL). Intelligent two-way defender, great passer.

RD Dylan Coghlan, Tri-City Americans (WHL). 2-way defender, good skater, spiking offensively.

L Filip Chytal, HC Zlin (Czech). Two-way C, skilled, intriguing prospect.

Though LT actually made his list or actual Oilers picks quite different, and had them trading away #78 or trading #82 for #78, I think?

Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)—LD Mario Ferraro, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL).

Third Round: No. 84 overall—L Jonah Gadjovich, Owen Sound Attack (OHL).

BM (78-84):

https://lowetide.ca/2017/06/19/mckenzie-list-offers-clarity/

Third Round: No. 82 overall (FROM ST. LOUIS—this is payment for Nail Yakupov)—RC Morgan Geekie, Tri-City Americans (WHL). I have him No. 30, Geekie is No. 86 on the McKenzie list. C w/2-way rep and emerging offense. This is his second year of eligibility but his spike offensively (90 points from 25 a year ago).

Third Round: No. 84 overall—LC Mason Shaw, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). I have him No. 32, he is honorable mention on the BM list. Small skill C, terrific skills. He is small and not fast, but very productive.

https://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-draft-ranking-top-93-and-honourable-mentions-1.778987

51. Ostap Safin

78. Jack Rathbone
82. Fabian Zetterlund
84. Hayden Primeau

I’m not sure what LT is showing, actually.

Damn, I was hoping there was a Safin and Sain in the draft, maybe even an Ostap Sin.

A line of Sin-Sain-Safin would have been great.

ACalgaryOilFan

Lowetide – it would be interesting to look at Ken Holland’s record over that same time vs BM. Thanks for all the work you do!

doritogrande

I’m curious if there are McKenzie lists from the Prendergast era, for comparisons. I feel like that’s the period when drafting (especially in rounds 2 and on) really let this team down. Count me as standing behind the Oilers scouts for the past decade, they’re making good decisions folks.

rickithebear

When I looked more into Lavoirs age NHLE seasons.
His draft year season kind of mirrored Sean Monohans regressed draft year.
Monahan
Draft -1 age NHLE 33G 79P
Draft age NHLE 23G 57P

Lavoie
Draft -1 age NHLE 28G 60P
Draft age NHLE 22G 50P
His playoff performance in draft year was more reflective of the draft -1 player.

Monahan has gone on to be the player draft -1 said he was.
Hopefully Lavoie is the draft -1 and draft playoff player.

mcleod
Draft -1 age NHLE 9G 40p
Draft age NHLE 16G 44P
Draft +1 age NHLE 11G 35P
Draft +1 Mississauga games age NHLE 13G 40P
Draft +1 Saginaw games age NHLE 8G 26P

His seasons suggest a 13G 41P forward.
But a fast skating one.

Bag of Pucks

PinkSocks: Pretty sure Ovechkin is considered generational, especially considering the player has a chance to break 800G and flirt with Gretzky’s record.

He definitely is in retrospect, but he wasn’t described as such at the time of his drafting. And in the dialogue on generational players, it tends to be the usual suspects: Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, McDavid with Ovey not in the conversation.

Lindros was actually considered generational at the time of his draft.

It’s also a term too biased towards Fs. Roy, Brodeur, Lidstrom, Pronger, Bourque were all generational talents.

geowal

Technical difficulties question from the youngest Luddite around: I’m trying to text LTs show. The text line is 101260. I take this to mean that the number I punch in to send this to is 101260 and nothing else, and I type my message underneath like any other message. But I’ve never managed it, I just tried and got a reply from “Phoenix Industrial” (they might be looking for workers!).
What am I doing wrong? Do you have to be in the Edmonton market? I’m still in Alberta. Thx all.

rickithebear

During MacT’s GM reign:
2013:
Nurse #7
Slepyshev #88 Top 6 fwd evg winger pace both partial seasons. With .25 g/ gm playoff rate.
40gm 4 evg
50gm 6 evg
2014:
Draisaitl #3
Lagesson #91
2015: Mact had in his pocket before he was replaced
Pick #1
Pick #16
Had arranged Talbot trade with slather with pick #57 ( petry trade) & pick #79 ( hemsky trade)
A top 5 open HD shot save% goalie.
Sather Said he completed the deal with PC cause MacT was still with the .org

Mcdavid
Barzal
RNH
Would be nice center depth.

Like LT, Desjardins NHLE age translation suggests draft +5 you know what you got at forward.
Interesting to see what PC forward drafts yeild us.
JP draft +3
Benson draft +3
Yamamoto draft +2
Safin draft +2
Maximov draft +2
Mcleod draft +1

Professor Q

LadiesloveSmid:
Remember when Nuge had Hall & Eberle for linemates?

Remember when Tambellini was the worst because he signed Belanger to a $1.75M AAV deal and only added Smithson at the deadline?

I am so damn pessimistic for this season it hurts my heart.

Added Smithson for a 2nd though, and didn’t re-sign him. Maybe it was a 3rd? But still.