Measuring Draft Performance

I followed drafts as a kid. I remember the 1971 draft and I anticipated the 1973 Amateur Draft. I didn’t do a mock draft (that I recall) but would have if it had occurred to me. We are all limited by the power of our imaginations.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
  • Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Kent Wilson and Lowetide: Why the Flames and Oilers would (and wouldn’t) trade Sam Bennett for Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • New Jonathan Willis: What the Oilers’ 2020 cap situation suggests about Ken Holland’s master plan.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With free agency all but over, Oilers’ Ken Holland has tough work ahead on the trade front
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

BEST DRAFTS, FIVE YEARS OUT

I rely heavily on games played, but if a team drafts three players who play a substantial role on a regular basis, that’s a strong draft. Edmonton has done it, just not enough since the turn of the century. Also, generational talents and impact forwards to the front of the line.

2015—Generational forward,  322 games. (Connor McDavid 287, Ethan Bear 18, Caleb Jones 17). McDavid’s draft is the only one in team history that can rival those magical drafts of 1979 and 1980, although 2015 probably doesn’t get 500 games in the first five years (one more year to go). It would be ridiculous to rank any draft year this century ahead of this one.

2010—Impact F, depth D, 425 games. (Taylor Hall 299, Martin Marincin 85, Tyler Pitlick 27, Brandon Davidson 12, Curtis Hamilton 1, Tyler Bunz 1). Taylor Hall was the first No. 1 overall pick in franchise history—incredible considering what has happened since. Brandon Davidson and Martin Marincin, along with Tyler Pitlick, teased and then emerged after the five year marker.

2011—Top 3F, Top 4D, Top 9F, 578 games. (Ryan Nugent Hopkins 313, Tobias Rieder 154, Oscar Klefbom 107, David Musil 4). A quality draft with a mighty head start, No. 1 overall and another player inside the first round. The Tobias Rieder pick was a strong moment for the scouts.

2014—Impact forward, 351 games. (Leon Draisaitl 351). MacT had two drafts and hit a home run when deciding on Draisaitl. The big man scored 50 goals in his draft+5 season, extremely rare in team history.

2001—Top 3F, backup goalie, 471 games (Ales Hemsky-275, Jussi Markkanen-128, Ales Pisa-53, Kari Haakana-13, Doug Lynch-2). Hemsky represented the best skill forward drafted by Edmonton and successfully brought to the NHL since Ryan Smyth in 1994.

2002—Top 6F, Top 6D, 440 games. (Jarret Stoll-286, Matt Greene-151, Mikko Luoma-3). A little misleading in that Stoll was a draft re-entry and technically belongs to the 2000 group. Greene and Stoll had long and productive careers. Unlike the 2010’s, both men were second rounders, top pick Jesse Niinimaki washed out.

2008—Top 6F, 250 games. (Jordan Eberle 195, Teemu Hartikainen 52, Phil Cornet-2, Johan Motin-1)Eberle took two years in junior and then played well from his rookie year. Hartikainen looked like a player, but could not survive all the management chaos in his time with Edmonton. They didn’t have their second or third-round picks.

2013—Top 4D, 300 games. (Darnell Nurse 197, Anton Slepyshev 102, Bogdan Yakimov 1). It took some time to get Nurse rolling, but his most recent seasons suggest the club drafted a top-4 defender. It would have been fab if Slepyshev had also made it.

2007—Top 6F, 447 games. (Sam Gagner 366, Linus Omark 65, Alex Plante-10, Riley Nash-5, Milan Kytnar-1)So much promise—three picks inside the top 21 overall—and so little to show for it. Gagner is now over 800 NHL games, but did not cover his draft bet. Nash took forever to arrive but is now at 477 NHL games.

2005—Top 9F, 339 games. (Andrew Cogliano-246, Danny Syvret-49, Taylor Chorney-44). Cogliano emerged as a solid player and has been a consistent performer over many years now. Chris VandeVelde, not listed here, arrived after the five-year window closed.

That’s 10, with the odd man out being 2003. Kyle Brodziak couldn’t save it from the seventh round. The 2016-19 draft also not listed, too soon to know.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a fantastic group of guests. Aaron Bronsteter from TSN will talk UFC 240 this weekend, and the growing excitement for the big event. Andy McNamara from TSN4Downs drops in at 11 to talk NFL, and at 11:25 it’s Gerry Moddejonge from Post Media to tee up the Eskimos game tonight.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

120 Responses to "Measuring Draft Performance"

  1. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers.

    https://theathletic.com/1092748/2019/07/25/lowetide-joel-persson-is-ideally-situated-to-win-an-opening-night-roster-spot-with-the-oilers/

  2. MushedPeas says:

    Lowetide,

    I saw that and I just can’t (don’t need to relive the comments sections of the past decade).

  3. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers.

    https://theathletic.com/1092748/2019/07/25/lowetide-joel-persson-is-ideally-situated-to-win-an-opening-night-roster-spot-with-the-oilers/

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Persson
    Jones Benning
    Russell

    Be bold Tip!

  4. Lowetide says:

    The idea of Joel Persson making the Oilers is at most a year old, Mushed.

  5. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Persson
    Jones Benning
    Russell

    Be bold Tip!

    I think that top 4D has a chance, by that I mean Tippett might try it.

  6. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I think that top 4D has a chance, by that I mean Tippett might try it.

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefblom Persson
    Jones Benning

    shouldn’t be looked at as 1st pairing, 2nd pairing, 3rd pairing.

    It should be looked at as shutdown pairing, and two offensive pairings.

    With Klefbom, Persson getting the 2nd toughs and O-zone starts, and Jones Benning getting the easiest competition, and balanced starts.

    And well, Nurse and Larsson being out there for every D-zone faceoff possible against the top two lines of the opposition. Give Nurse his role as shutdown defender, and give him the best help possible. So we know exactly what he is when we have to sign him.

  7. MushedPeas says:

    Lowetide,

    Too many tabs open. Your story hadn’t loaded yet so thought the Athletic plug was for the 20/20 Nuge story 🙂

  8. HT Joe says:

    Man that 2012 draft… Oilers pick no. 1 overall and not an impact draft.

    Thanks Lowetide for doing everything you do for us, keeping us engaged.

  9. Darth Tu says:

    godot10: Nurse Larsson
    Klefblom Persson
    Jones Benning

    shouldn’t be looked at as 1st pairing, 2nd pairing, 3rd pairing.

    It should be looked at as shutdown pairing, and two offensive pairings.

    With Klefbom, Persson getting the 2nd toughs and O-zone starts, and Jones Benning getting the easiest competition, and balanced starts.

    And well, Nurse and Larsson being out there for every D-zone faceoff possible against the top two lines of the opposition. Give Nurse his role as shutdown defender, and give him the best help possible.So we know exactly what he is when we have to sign him.

    The idea of a Nurse Larsson “top” or shutdown pairing to play against the opposition top lines has really grown on me.

    I guess the Klefbom pairing would really be down to who’s performing better at any given time, be it Persson or Benning.

    If Persson shits the bed then we always have the option of bringing Russell back into the lineup and bumping Benning or Jones up to RD with Klef.

    I’m completely excluding thoughts of Bear or Bouchard jumping from the AHL for now.

  10. Jiminey says:

    If Perrson wins a roster spot I would be very surprised if it was in the top 4, but I have never seen him play. If he is that good though, I’d think the lines would be…

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Perrson
    Russel Benning Or Jones Russel

    There is no way Russel gets relegated to the 7 hole imho, he is to good for that!

  11. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I love these draft recap posts. Oiler drafting has been awful for a long time.

    Here is the list of non-1st round draft picks that played 150+ games last decade:

    1) Jar (15 goals in 154 games, drafted in 2012)
    2) Lander (10 goals in 215 games, drafted in 2009)

    – That’s it.

    – Now I suppose you need to add Reider, and Gustafson, as two players that we might have benefited from keeping

    – We are so bad for a decade plus because we haven’t draft and developed an impact player outside of the first round since Kyle Brodziak in 2003 (and we got his early and late, not his prime)

    – LT measures “draft performance” by games played, that is a fine way to look at things.

    – But for Oil real life success, we need to do better than Sleppy, Marincin, Pitlick, Davidson, Hartkineen, Omark, Gustafsson, Jar and Reider as the players that play games it in the next 10 years that aren’t drafted in the first round. Thats a very very weak group of “talent”

    – That’s it folks: the rest, details. Holland needs the draft and develop to work this time.

  12. dustrock says:

    What a load of shitty drafting wow.

    The 2015 draft is already the best because of McDavid, but the later picks of Bear and Jones were great as well.

    You’d think it could be one of the greatest drafts in NHL history, let alone the Oilers, if it were not for Peter Chiarelli.

  13. godot10 says:

    Jiminey:
    If Perrson wins a roster spot I would be very surprised if it was in the top 4, but I have never seen him play. If he is that good though, I’d think the lines would be…

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Perrson
    Russel Benning Or Jones Russel

    There is no way Russel gets relegated to the 7 hole imho, he is to good for that!

    If you want to play quick outlet passing game consistanlty with all the D, then begin and you mean to proceed. Russell cannot do that. It effs up change, evolution, and progress.

    Russell isn’t part of the future. Don’t cater to him.

    There is no point in waiting for Russell’s contract to expire to move on to the future.

    The McDavid clock is ticking.

  14. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    In as much as there is a need to find chemistry and balance in the forward lines, this is also necessary for the D. We have arguably 3 bonafide “top 4” D (Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson) and then some uncertainty as to how to slot the remainders at this point in time. I like the idea of Nurse-Lars as a shut down and PK pair and Klef on the “2nd pairing”. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. The potential for 2020-21 is VERY appealing.

  15. ArmchairGM says:

    https://theathletic.com/1094362/2019/07/25/tulloch-the-nhls-top-10-regression-candidates-for-2019-20/

    Thought I would share… some Oilers content. Interesting table in the Phil Kessell section showing one area that Tippett could improve – 1st unit PP deployment. That is, if he doesn’t have those guys playing PK too.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    I have had some discussions recently on other platforms with those that posit that the Oilers still suck at drafting and they include the last few years. They use the fact that we haven’t seen impact player from the last few years in the NHL and don’t see the fact that there are likely to be many graduating prospects on the roster over the next few years as a factor as it hasn’t happened yet. Of course they could all bust but in the first few years of a draft, one must grade with arrows, in my opinion.

    Some see a draft pick as a “hit” only if they impact the NHL. In my opinion, even a guy like Phil Kemp, a seventh round pick, has already out performed his draft position. He may never play an NHL game but the fact that he’s progressed so well at college, made and impacted the US World Junior team and is likely in the conversation for an NHL contract means he’s outperformed his draft pedigree and is a successful pick.

    Krill Masimov may never play an NHL game but, given where he was drafted, that is a successful pick.

  17. Jiminey says:

    The Oilers minor league affiliates look to have been run very poorly before Chiarelli. (Say what you will about him, he appears to have stabilized our prospect pipeline). How much is the lack of NHL players that the Oilers produced a product of very poor talent development as opposed to poor drafting? Any team can draft a player first overall, throw them in the NHL and hope for the best. I would think that later round draft picks require proper grooming to get the most out of them though. In the mid 90s we did not even have an AHL team if I recall, so how are you supposed to teach young players? I did not follow the various AHL affiliates closely over the years, but the the impression I did get (and this may not be accurate) is that they would often play vets as opposed to young talent trying to win. With the goal of winning, not talent development, did this hurt some of our prospects over the years? With a proper draft and develop program could we have taken the exact same crop of picks over the last 20 years and produced better NHL talent?

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    ArmchairGM,

    – Thanks for this – I hadn’t realized Drai shot 20% last year…

  19. hunter1909 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – We are so bad for a decade plus because we haven’t draft and developed an impact player outside of the first round since Kyle Brodziak in 2003 (and we got his early and late, not his prime)
    – LT measures “draft success” by games played, that is a fine way to look at things.
    – But for Oil real life success, we need to do better than Sleppy, Marincin, Pitlick, Davidson, Hartkineen, Omark, Gustafsson, Jar and Reider as the players that play games it in the next 10 years that aren’t drafted in the first round. Thats a very very weak group of “talent”
    – That’s it folks: the rest, details. Holland needs the draft and develop to work this time.

    Those responsible between 2003-2019 have been sacked.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    is likely in the conversation for an NHL contract means he’s outperformed his draft pedigree and is a successful pick.

    Krill Masimov may never play an NHL game but, given where he was drafted, that is a successful pick.

    – That is all true, and feel good stories. But the purpose of drafting is ultimately to get players into the NHL, not just to outperform their drafted slot. Great the 7th rounder “outperformed”. He’s a “victory on some level, but doesn’t matter.

    – But we need to draft guys who play in the NHL at above replacement level to move the needle. We haven’t done that. Things won’t change untill we do

    – The problem with just taking games played, or doing better than expected is that it doesn’t measure what impacts results Drafting 1 Brodziak and 3 duds in 7th round >>>>> than 4 Kemps, (I’m assuming Kemp doesn’t make the NHL, for my illustration)

  21. Durag says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    ArmchairGM,

    – Thanks for this – I hadn’t realized Drai shot 20% last year…

    Is there any site that breaks down EV and PP SH%? Just by eye, it seemed like Leon shot damn near 50% on the PP. I wonder if the EV SH% is more sustainable.

  22. hunter1909 says:

    Jiminey: The Oilers minor league affiliates look to have been run very poorly before Chiarelli. (Say what you will about him, he appears to have stabilized our prospect pipeline). How much is the lack of NHL players that the Oilers produced a product of very poor talent development as opposed to poor drafting? Any team can draft a player first overall, throw them in the NHL and hope for the best.

    At what point did you come to understand you had cracked the 2003-19 Oilers “Code”?

  23. v4ance says:

    When I did a draft analysis of the years from 2000-2010, the cutoff I used was 100 games/player to try find an average drafting result. From that data, if you got 5 players out of every two draft years, you were doing about the average. Elite drafting teams tended to be 3 players per draft but the Oilers always hovered around the middle or the lower end of the spectrum.

    From other studies, the average career of an NHLer turned out to be ~250 games or about 3 seasons. This basically represents a 3rd line player or a top 6 player whose career was shortened due to injury. Top line guys or 1st pair defencemen usually get to about 500 games.

    From a holistic team building perspective, getting a draft pick to play 100 games should be regarded as a success. I know some people refer to picks as magic beans and players who only do 100 games as replacement level players but you do want as many of these guys or lottery tickets as possible. There’s always roster churn as the bottom 6 guys cycle in and out as they are found to be not good enough to stick around or to be promoted to higher in the lineup.

    When you can’t get enough picks or players to this minimal level, you end up overpaying for bottom 6 guys as UFAs which is doubly damaging with a cap limit. You need as many cheap homegrown guys as you can find so you can allocate the maximum amount to star players. “Pay for elite talent, scrimp on the complimentary or replacement players” should be the overriding mantra. Draft picks are a renewable resource… cap money is not

    If we look at the situation of Zack Kassian, he really shouldn’t get over $2 million going forward. His success with McDavid is nice but away from McDavid, he’s like any other bottom 6 grinder. Don’t overpay for guys who are carried by elite talent. We should have learned that from Maroon, Chaisson, Rattie, etc. by now. Next year’s one year wonder could be Khaira or Maxisimov or Benson. We don’t know who will be on McDavid’s wing so don’t overpay for them if they’re not a guaranteed top line player.

    That’s why the salary tiers broken down into 1st line, 2nd line, etc. would and should never work. On paper, it sounds nice but one year a guy can go on a heater onto the first line but if you pay him for that temporary bump, the next year you have an overpaid bottom 6 player and a salary cap anchor (AKA the Chiarelli method). Plus entitlement would be an issue as every 2nd liner who spends a few minutes elevated up the lineup would be wanting to be paid as a 1st liner, every 3rd liner elevated to 2nd will be wanting to be paid as a 2nd liner, etc. etc…

    A quality GM should always grind hard in salary negotiations because you never know when you might need that extra money. It might lose you a few players due to hurt feelings or entitlement just like in the Petry situation but it might also allow you to sign Hall to a bargain $6 million. If you can shave some salary on 50% of your contracts, you have more leeway in case you do make mistakes or in case you want to fit in an opportunistic acquisition from another cap strapped team. Salary cap space is an asset and if you don’t try to maximize how you use it, you miss opportunities to improve or you do long term damage with cap anchors.

  24. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    hunter1909: Those responsible between 2003-2019 have been sacked.

    – Yup, and I keep my moudth shut: and hope Holland is the guy

    – BUT: I didn’t love his explanation of the Neal trade, which was “I called a bunch of guys I know and they all vouched for him”. I mean that’s fine, but paired with some vigorous analytical analysis I would have felt a lot better. There was none of this analysis: just he will regress, he’s working out with Conner, he’s a good dude, and he’s scored 20+ for 10 years. I hope all these things too

    – Whose kidding who, just the flex on the contract coming in vs out is the win, so I’m probably being too harsh: what else is he supposed to say?

    – The lack of next generation thinking and perspectives is my biggest worry. However, Holland has better hockey GM’ing acument than Lowe, MacT and Chia, so we will be better, and we have the best player in a generation which helps a lot. I hope it works out great

  25. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    I have to keep pinching myself. It wasn’t just a dream. Lucic contract is gone!

  26. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yup, and I keep my moudth shut: and hope Holland is the guy

    – BUT:I didn’t love his explanation of the Neal trade, which was “I called a bunch of guys I know and they all vouched for him”.I mean that’s fine, but paired with some vigorous analytical analysis I would have felt a lot better.There was none of this analysis: just he will regress, he’s working out with Conner, he’s a good dude, and he’s scored 20+ for 10 years.I hope all these things too

    – Whose kidding who, just the flex on the contract coming in vs out is the win, so I’m probably being too harsh: what else is he supposed to say?

    – The lack of next generation thinking and perspectives is my biggest worry.However, Holland has better hockey GM’ing acument than Lowe, MacT and Chia, so we will be better, and we have the best player in a generation which helps a lot.I hope it works out great

    Well said. This sums up how I feel about Holland as well. Especially with the implementation of player tracking. I’m not sure I’m confident Holland is the guy that can build an analytics department than can parse and analyze the data, then turn it into something useful.

  27. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    I have to keep pinching myself. It wasn’t just a dream. Lucic contract is gone!

    You and me both. I’ve got pinch marks on my pinch marks.

  28. defmn says:

    godot10: If you want to play quick outlet passing game consistanlty with all the D, then begin and you mean to proceed.Russell cannot do that.It effs up change, evolution, and progress.

    Russell isn’t part of the future.Don’t cater to him.

    There is no point in waiting for Russell’s contract to expire to move on to the future.

    The McDavid clock is ticking.

    This is correct imo. And I would add that if you want Russell to facilitate a trade at the deadline the best way to do that is to make it clear that staying with the Oilers will sewer any chance he has at a next contract because press box dmen do not command a lot of money come UFA season the following summer.

    Nice to have Russell in case of injuries or slumps but he is not part of the future and he is not going to cost or win enough games this year that he shouldn’t be thought of as the spare guy.

  29. mustang says:

    Drafting hasn’t been good but player development has been worse imho.

    Thanks to OBC, they figure throwing young players to the wolves was the way to go.

    After all, it worked in the 80’s

    I believe that’s changed, only 15-20 yrs too late

    I do understand it’s hard to get vets to come here when the team

    sucks, have to over pay like crazy

  30. GBandQ says:

    GMB3,

    did Detroit not have a decent analytics dept. when he was there?

  31. HT Joe says:

    Carrying on from yesterday…

    defmn: From my original post on this.
    1st line – $20 mil
    2nd line – $15 mil
    3rd line – 7.5 mil
    4th line – 4 mil
    Extras – 1.5 mil
    Total – 48 mil

    1st pair – $12 mil
    2nd pair – $7 mil
    3rd pair – $4 mil
    Extra – $1 mil
    Total $24

    Goalies – $8
    Contingency – $1.5 mil

    This is, imo, a capologist’s dream template. From there the GM makes his decisions based upon availability, need and desperation.

    So, the Oilers have ~$5 dead space

    1st line – $20 mil –> McDavid ($12.5) + Kassian ($2-ish) = $5.5M leftover –> James Neal
    2nd line – $15 mil –> Draisatl ($8.5) + Chaisson ($2.2-ish) = $4.3M leftover –> ?
    3rd line – 7.5 mil –> RNH ($6) –> $1.5M for both wingers (need to borrow from line 2)
    4th line – 4 mil –> lots of these guys (man, Gagner on the bottom 2 lines hurts the cap)
    Extras – 1.5 mil

    1st pair – $12 mil –> Nurse ($3.2) + Larsson ($4.2ish) –> $7.4ish (enjoy this while it lasts)
    2nd pair – $7 mil –> Klefbom ($4.2ish) + Persson or Benning ($2) –> $6ish
    3rd pair – $4 mil –> Russel ($4m) + Persson or other ELC –> $5ish – over by $1M
    Extra – $1 mil –> Manning, yeow!!

    Goalies – $8 –> just about $8M this year

    For 2020-2021, Nurse ($7) + Larsson ($4.2ish) still falls under this ideal situation.
    But god the dead $4.5M (2020-2021) and overpaid forwards on this team (Neal, Gagner, RNH as a 3rd line C) really kills this team.

    Even if we run (RNH – Draisatl – x) for the second line, we’re already at $14.5M for two players.

    I do wonder if it’s possible for unicorns this year, but set up like this…
    – McDavid Line (1)
    – Draisatl Line (2a)
    – RNH Line (2b)
    Anything to get McDavid and Draisatl fewer minutes, so they’re not so worn down and exhausted. But the wingers on this team… I don’t know how this works out.

  32. defmn says:

    GMB3: Well said. This sums up how I feel about Holland as well. Especially with the implementation of player tracking. I’m not sure I’m confident Holland is the guy that can build an analytics department than can parse and analyze the data, then turn it into something useful.

    I think for me the question is a little bit different. All Holland has to do is accept that the tracking info is a new day and hire a guy capable of building that department. He doesn’t need to understand the intricacies until the department is up and running and the guys he hired sit down and explain to him what it means.

    We’ll see how it goes but he really just needs one guy on his staff who sees the value of the information and for him to give the budget and authority to move ahead.

  33. defmn says:

    HT Joe:
    Carrying on from yesterday…

    So, the Oilers have ~$5 dead space

    1st line – $20 mil –>McDavid ($12.5) + Kassian ($2-ish) = $5.5M leftover –> James Neal
    2nd line – $15 mil –> Draisatl ($8.5) + Chaisson ($2.2-ish) = $4.3M leftover –> ?
    3rd line – 7.5 mil –> RNH ($6) –> $1.5M for both wingers (need to borrow from line 2)
    4th line – 4 mil –> lots of these guys (man, Gagner on the bottom 2 lines hurts the cap)
    Extras – 1.5 mil

    1st pair – $12 mil –> Nurse ($3.2) + Larsson ($4.2ish) –> $7.4ish (enjoy this while it lasts)
    2nd pair – $7 mil –> Klefbom ($4.2ish) + Persson or Benning ($2) –> $6ish
    3rd pair – $4 mil –> Russel ($4m) + Persson or other ELC –> $5ish – over by $1M
    Extra – $1 mil –> Manning, yeow!!

    Goalies – $8–> just about $8M this year

    For 2020-2021, Nurse ($7) + Larsson ($4.2ish) still falls under this ideal situation.
    But god the dead $4.5M (2020-2021) and overpaid forwards on this team (Neal, Gagner, RNH as a 3rd line C) really kills this team.

    Even if we run (RNH – Draisatl – x) for the second line, we’re already at $14.5M for two players.

    I do wonder if it’s possible for unicorns this year, but set up like this…
    – McDavid Line (1)
    – Draisatl Line (2a)
    – RNH Line (2b)
    Anything to get McDavid and Draisatl fewer minutes, so they’re not so worn down and exhausted.But the wingers on this team… I don’t know how this works out.

    Nice work. You can move the money around but as everybody here knows the key with high end talent on the team is ELC’s.

    Draft and develop is easy to know as the right strategy but harder to implement and after all these years of incompetence even harder to wait for.

  34. HT Joe says:

    Based on the cap breakdown, this will work most likely if McDavid and Draisaitl are split up, and McDavid in particular needs to be paired with inexpensive wingers to subsidize lines 2 & 3.

    By extension, signing Nurse to $7+ works only if Nurse can carry a lesser partner. I was a supporter of a Nurse-Larsson pairing, but I think we need to know if Nurse can carry a line. Staple him to Persson or Benning (keep him away from Russel and Larsson for different reasons) until you know if he can carry the second pairing. If he can’t carry a pairing should he be paid that much?

    (I’m this scenario, the Nurse and Russel pairings would be a 2a and 2b pairing, similar to how the Draisaitl and RNH lines would be 2a and 2b).

  35. HT Joe says:

    defmn,

    Thanks Defmn

  36. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    defmn:

    We’ll see how it goes but he really just needs one guy on his staff who sees the value of the information and for him to give the budget and authority to move ahead.

    – This is my issue. There is a great article about when Shanahan interviewed Dubas and was blown away, and admitted he didn’t really understand anything Dubas was saying. Now Shanny is a bright guy and didn’t have 35 years of hockey operations experience, and he seeks wise counsel.

    – The worry is Holland : get some geek to crunch numbers and sit in the basement, tick off that computer thingy box, rather than be like Shanny, and recognize this is part of future and seek to optimize info and data to layer into guys like Lou and other smart hockey people in his org.

    – Dubas isn’t “better” than Holland, but I suspect going forward, more GM’s will speak Dubas “language” and seek things through a larger lense. Holland has game and acumen and instinct and works hard grinds hard, is a big picture guy. He’s fine.

    – But there is so much information available, better understanding of risk, projections probability, and lots of new info from tracking, using cap space like the Leafs requires good spreadsheet skills along with hockey acumen. We don’t do any of this, and lots of teams do.

  37. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn: This is correct imo. And I would add that if you want Russell to facilitate a trade at the deadline the best way to do that is to make it clear that staying with the Oilers will sewer any chance he has at a next contract because press box dmen do not command a lot of money come UFA season the following summer.

    Nice to have Russell in case of injuries or slumps but he is not part of the future and he is not going to cost or win enough games this year that he shouldn’t be thought of as the spare guy.

    Like him or hate him, Russell is our fourth best dman right now. He will be deployed that way by the coach until other dmen pass him on the depth chart. The GM might want to trade the player yesterday, but it won’t change the way the coaching staff deploys him. Russel will be press boxed if and only if the coach thinks he’s the seventh best dman on the team; not some ultimatum by the GM.

  38. rickithebear says:

    Jordon Eberle did not play in 80’s hockey.
    He has played hockey since 2010.

    But most critical is differentiation by position.
    Centers by the structural position have an easier time penetrating the higher density parts of HD area.
    While also having less distance to distribute to wingers than wingers have to distribute to the 2 forwards they play with.

    This advantage is reflected in the number
    Their will be more centers in top 50,100, 200, than LW or RW.

    Also centers are mostly right hand dominate so expect left wingers to generate more even goals by the natural advantage they have playing to the natural passing side of the center.

    Year to year these advantages are clearly reflected in the numbers.
    It is one of my most important theorems!

    You must differentiate by position based on varied production advantages of the diffrent positions.
    For top 3, top 6, top 9 production.

    We also no that in performance variance players do not recieve assists unless some other player has completed the mission of generating a goal.
    Scorers generate
    Assisters recieve
    The failure rates of 1st and 2nd assist passes are much higher than direct shots.
    They are much more per pocession efficient.

    These are all givens.
    Were a great passer and poor passer can be identified is by their ability to pass a player into a better HD area that provides greater open space (Open shot opportunity)
    Hence the term tap in shot.

    Once again a simple identification process.

    We have been lucky to have great passers
    since 11-12
    Hall #2 LW 206 Eva
    Eberle #6 RW 174 EVA
    Lucic #6 LW 170 Eva – for one of three years as an oiler
    Perron #14 LW 151 EVA
    Draisaitl #16 RW 174 EVA
    Mcdavid #25C 165 EVA

    Neal is #32 LW 119 Eva not great but high numbers.

    Since 15-16
    Mcdavid #1 C 165 Eva
    Draisaitl #2 RW 140 Eva
    Hall #6 LW 101 Eva
    Eberle #19 RW 79 Eva
    Lucic #18 75 eva

    Then we look at EVG
    since 11-12
    Eberle #5 RW 143 evg
    Neal #7 LW 140 evg
    Hall #11 LW 127 evg
    RNH #18 C 110 evg
    Mcdavid #22 C 105 evg
    Lucic #23 LW 103 evg

    Draisaitl #39 RW 81 Evg

    Since 15-16
    Mcdavid #2 C 105 evg
    Draisaitl #7 RW 80 evg
    Hall #16 LW 70 evg
    Neal #16 LW 70 evg
    Eberle #11 RW 68 evg
    Maroon #29 LW 55 evg

    Top 3, 6, 9 forward is in reference to even play.

    PP & PK are special advantage unit structures.

    LT: Eberle is not a top 6 forward, nor a top 3 forward.
    He is one of the 12 most consistent evg and EVA generating forwards in the game.
    Since 2011 is one 15 best forwards in the game.
    Since 15-16 his is a #1 RW and still a #2 forward

    Eberle for Strome.

    Hall is a #1 LW and a #2 ( top 32-62) even forward.
    Just like he was when we traded him.
    For one of the 5 best 3-2-1 Def dmen in the game who has generated > +ve .90+evg/60 in a season relative to average evga/60

    We just got neal who is a #1 evg scorer for his position who replaces Halls evg Numbers.
    Which is what I look for first.

    Just some facts!

    Go Oilers!

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yup, and I keep my moudth shut: and hope Holland is the guy

    – BUT:I didn’t love his explanation of the Neal trade, which was “I called a bunch of guys I know and they all vouched for him”.I mean that’s fine, but paired with some vigorous analytical analysis I would have felt a lot better.There was none of this analysis: just he will regress, he’s working out with Conner, he’s a good dude, and he’s scored 20+ for 10 years.I hope all these things too

    – Whose kidding who, just the flex on the contract coming in vs out is the win, so I’m probably being too harsh: what else is he supposed to say?

    – The lack of next generation thinking and perspectives is my biggest worry.However, Holland has better hockey GM’ing acument than Lowe, MacT and Chia, so we will be better, and we have the best player in a generation which helps a lot.I hope it works out great

    The saving grace is the vast majority of hockey GMs are still pretty old school on analytics. Chayka and Dubas are outliers, not the norm.

    So most of the guys Holland is competing against approach it from the same perspective and skillset.

    Innovation works quickest when circumstances force it. When an NHL team starts to win Cups and attributes much of their competitive advantage to analytics, that’s when the rest will get onboard. I suspect the puck tracking data will be key to this as to date, the data has largely been proxies. With puck tracking, they’re going to have directly correlative datasets and it’s much easier to draw insights from that. Even still, building effective decision models off that big data isn’t easy and that talent is expensive and in demand by everyone.

    We’ve been talking about it for years, but the reality is it’s very very early days for analytics in hockey. Most of the clubs are dabblers not adopters. And outside ARZ and possibly FLA, there’s very few instances where data is driving the decision models and organizational culture.

  40. rickithebear says:

    Jimmy V:

    Holland wants offence from his defence.
    He wants 5 attacking players.
    Pass the puck to forwards let them carry the puck up.
    Become a 4th or 5 th option.

    1st option direct shooter
    2 Nd option first read – a forward they are looking to pass to.
    3 rd option 2nd read – usually a forward they are looking to pass to.
    4 th option 3 rd read – usually a dman they are looking to pass to.
    5th option 4 th read – a Dman they are looking to pass to.

    What Holland is talking about is Def responsible evg production.
    Direct uncovered shots.
    Result in high % of on net corsi. ( shots)
    Cause goals win games.

    But he wants defensive ( 3-2-1 structure) responsible dmen.

    So when a dman “ pushes” as you say.
    Do you think he wants roving.
    Or
    def responsible Dmen who
    get the forward the puck
    And
    Generate responsible uncovered evg oportunities.

    Who in our def prospect pool matches that?

    We want the best goal successful actions repeated.
    An unchallenged direct HD area shot from a Dman is pure gold.

    To quote Daryl Sutter when I met him at Cactus corner truck stop. Corner of highway 9 and south highway 36.
    “We are turning them ( players) in to fucking robots.”

  41. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear,

    – Damn you Ricki: I just spent 5 minutes on NHL.com: Neal and Ebs have scored the same 106 EVG since 2013. Hall has 101.

    – But since CmD in league he’s scored most at 92: Hall is around 75th as is Ebs. They aren’t elite EVG scorers anymore

  42. v4ance says:

    To add to what others have posted, I also agree that prospect development was sorely lacking until Chiarelli (his one few brights spots). My thoughts are lots of guys over the past few decades drafted by the Oilers got to 100 GP in the NHL on pure talent or hard work. They would have been better developed and played longer if the Oilers had had a rational minor league system all along.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Even with clubs that have made high profile analytics hires, that doesn’t mean data is driving the decisions with these clubs imo.

    I suspect the question they get is “what do you think?” and not “what should we do based on the numbers?”

    Analytics has a voice in the room now. That’s a ways away from being “the voice in the room” though.

    And to the point on the Dubas interview, the best analytics guys i’ve worked with know how to show their findings in terms the entire exec group can understand. If their insights go over people’s heads, they’re not going to find traction in the org. The numbers are there to serve the humans, not vice versa. 😊

  44. rickithebear says:

    Bag of Pucks: The saving grace is the vast majority of hockey GMs are still pretty old school on analytics. Chayka and Dubas are outliers, not the norm.

    So most of the guys Holland is competing against approach it from the same perspective and skillset.

    Change works quickest when circumstances force it. When an NHL team starts to win Cups and attributes much of their competitive advantage to analytics, that’s when the rest will get onboard. I suspect the puck tracking data will be key to this as to date, the data has largely been proxies. With puck tracking, they’re going to have directly correlative datasets and it’s much easier to draw insights from that. Even still, building effective decision models off that big data isn’t easy and that talent is expensive and in demand by everyone.

    We’ve been talking about it for years, but the reality is it’s very very early days for analytics in hockey. Most of the clubs are dabblers not adopters. And outside ARZ and possibly FLA, there’s very few instances where data is driving the decision models and organizational culture.

    I did that in my head!

    Man 1 computers 0.

    Binary Computer science sucks!

    Getting Binary thinkers like most of the academic community to analyze in a multivariable way is going to be interesting.

    I stated here years ago.

    That the company who developed computer analysis of video for puck movement and play tracking was a start to the game change.

    That puck tracking would further advance that.
    But multivariable differentiation of player zone start, comp, team, def schematic, forward zonal def play are critical factors that must be differentiated in any puck action result anslysis.

    Their must be a differentiation of shot density and shot quality or thevdata will be useless.

  45. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: Like him or hate him, Russell is our fourth best dman right now. He will be deployed that way by the coach until other dmen pass him on the depth chart. The GM might want to trade the player yesterday, but it won’t change the way the coaching staff deploys him.Russel will be press boxed if and only if the coach thinks he’s the seventh best dman on the team; not some ultimatum by the GM.

    I think this coach wants different results than the last two coaches. Doing the same thing and expecting different results…you know…is…

    Are you going to waste your freebie year as coach with status quo Russell, or are you going to give the push to yours and the teams long term future…i.e. Persson and Jones and Lagesson.

  46. godot10 says:

    rickithebear:
    Jordon Eberle did not play in 80’s hockey.
    He has played hockey since 2010.

    Go Oilers!

    Last time I checked, Joey Mullen played hockey in the eighties.

  47. PennersPancakes says:

    JimmyV1965: Like him or hate him, Russell is our fourth best dman right now.

    Agree with the sentiment, not the valuation. I would personally put Russel in the bin of Benning/Jones/Persson/Lagesson and not the Klefbom/Larsson/Nurse box.

    More of a 3-5 way tie for fourth best dman in my mind, so if the coach can get similar performance why not prepare for the future and develop a youngin? Although Persson and Lagesson are complete wild cards for what they will bring in the NHL, good or bad.

  48. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Neal’s 2012 results don’t really entice me. Lucic was a quality 1LW in 2012.

    We’re hoping Neal bounces back to 2W spot duty

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    rickithebear,

    – Damn you Ricki: I just spent 5 minutes on NHL.com: Neal and Ebs have scored the same106 EVG since 2013.Hall has 101.

    – But since CmD in league he’s scored most at 92: Hall is around 75th as is Ebs.They aren’t elite EVG scorers anymore

    Is it that or is it harder to post boxcars when you have to play a more defensively responsible game?

    The Austins throught O first and D a distant second. Can’t say i blame them with a new HC every year.

  50. Jiminey says:

    PennersPancakes,

    Russel is not in the same category as Klefbom, Nurse or Larsson, but definitely ahead of Benning, Lagesson. Jones showed well last year until moved up to the top pairing, based on last year though he is behind Russel. If Russel takes a step back at all due to age (that’s a big if) and if Jones developed a bit more (another if) he may leapfrogged him.
    Anyone that says Persson is as good as any of these players, if you have not seen him play it is kinda wishful thinking isn’t it? I HOPE he is better than Larsson and knocks him down to the second line. Realistically, if he makes the team at all it will be a huge win. Found money! Great story!!!

  51. rickithebear says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    rickithebear,

    – Damn you Ricki: I just spent 5 minutes on NHL.com: Neal and Ebs have scored the same106 EVG since 2013.Hall has 101.

    – But since CmD in league he’s scored most at 92: Hall is around 75th as is Ebs.They aren’t elite EVG scorers anymore

    Love when you guys look at the truth.
    centers
    But with the built in natural advantage for centers
    -Central to HD area higher shot density
    -Shorter overall passing distance to 2 line mates
    They are going to naturally get better production.

    With most centers right handed, LW have a slight advantage over RW.

    So that is why I differentiate by position.
    Cause avg for each is quite diffrent cause of the clear advantages.

    I have stated by schematic structure.
    One of my most important theorems.

    I was going to look at last years evg & EVA production from our current roster by position.

    EVG
    Mcdavid #2C 31 evg
    Draisaitl #2 RW 31 evg
    RNH #32 C 19 evg with Couture, Giroux, Kopitar, Bergeron, Backlund
    Kassian #38 RW 14 evg with j. Williams, Bucknevich, K. Hayes, R. Smith, Frolik
    Chaisson #44 RW 13 evg with Keller, Bailey, Donskoi, Panik, hinistroza, Virtanen
    Archibald #52 RW 12 evg with Eberle, hornquist, Simmons’s, Hartman
    Granlund #62 RW 10 evg with Toffoli, Armia, Kase
    Gagner #84 RW 5 evg ( in 25 gm w/ oilers) with Backes, Clutterbuck.
    Neal #94 LW 5 evg with boedker, Hamelin, Kunitz, Erne, Raffl.
    Brodziak #153C 5 evg
    Khaira #113 LW 2 evg

    Kassian, Chaisson, Archibald, Granlund all 2 Nd line (32-62) RW depth

    EVA
    Mcdavid #1C 50 Eva
    Draisaitl #4 RW 42 eva
    RNH #52 C 21 Eva
    Khaira #50 LW 14 eva
    Kassian # 53 RW 11 Eva
    Archibald #69 RW 9 Eva
    Chaisson #73 RW 8 Eva
    Granlund #73 RW 8 Eva
    Neal #91 LW 8 eva
    Gagner #79 RW 7 Eva

    14 Eva is #99 th for centers.
    But with natural advantage for assists from shorter distribution
    Maybe Khaira could be a 3C option for the oilers.
    I would take a top 62 C 19 eva rate.
    Just need him to generate evg like 17-18.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I think that top 4D has a chance, by that I mean Tippett might try it.

    It would be great if Persson is a legit 2RD at evens – my goodness that would solve issues for this year.

    I’m confident he’ll be productive on the PP but I’m not sure he can handle even 3RD at evens let alone 2RD.

    I’m also not confident that he can’t.

    We just don’t know and I’m hella excited to find out.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Jordon Peterson developed a test that idenfified efficient workers more accurately than standard applied test.
    Could save the companies 10’s of millions thru efficiency.

    The managers that made decisions about HR testing budgets wanted the test that were applied to be cheap, and quick to take.

    They also wanted to take them to find out how good they are.
    Current tests fail to identify managers as poor efficiency workers.
    Who are good at taking credit for other people’s work & delegating.
    Peterson’s test catches that.

    Do you think any Manager wants to be told they are bad at their job.
    Or
    Telling a coach to limit the line matching possibilities Against any given team.

    D. Sutter did not.

    “ Turning them into Fucking robots”

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: I think this coach wants different results than the last two coaches.Doing the same thing and expecting different results…you know…is…

    Are you going to waste your freebie year as coach with status quo Russell, or are you going to give the push to yours and the teams long term future…i.e. Persson and Jones and Lagesson.

    At this point IMO Russell is the fourth best dman on this team. That could change by opening night. I truly hope so because we’re in trouble if it doesn’t. And who knows, maybe by the end of the year he is our seventh dman. As of today though, he’s our fourth best dman. What I was really objecting to was the notion that the GM should give him some kind of ultimatum; agree to be traded or your in the press box. Silly idea on so many levels.

  55. Darth Tu says:

    rickithebear: Love when you guys look at the truth.
    centers
    But with the built in natural advantage for centers
    -Centralto HD area higher shot density
    -Shorter overall passing distance to 2 line mates
    They are going to naturally get better production.

    With most centersright handed, LW have a slight advantage over RW.

    So that is why I differentiate by position.
    Cause avg for each is quite diffrent cause of the clear advantages.

    I have stated by schematic structure.
    One of my most important theorems.

    I was going to look at last years evg & EVA production from our current roster by position.

    EVG
    Mcdavid #2C 31 evg
    Draisaitl #2 RW 31 evg
    RNH #32 C 19 evg with Couture, Giroux, Kopitar, Bergeron, Backlund
    Kassian #38 RW 14 evg with j. Williams, Bucknevich, K. Hayes, R. Smith, Frolik
    Chaisson #44 RW 13 evg with Keller, Bailey, Donskoi, Panik, hinistroza, Virtanen
    Archibald #52 RW 12 evg with Eberle, hornquist, Simmons’s, Hartman
    Granlund #62 RW 10 evg with Toffoli, Armia, Kase
    Gagner #84 RW 5 evg ( in 25 gm w/ oilers) with Backes, Clutterbuck.
    Neal #94 LW 5 evg with boedker, Hamelin, Kunitz, Erne, Raffl.
    Brodziak #153C 5 evg
    Khaira #113 LW 2 evg

    Kassian, Chaisson, Archibald, Granlund all 2 Nd line (32-62) RW depth

    EVA
    Mcdavid #1C 50 Eva
    Draisaitl #4 RW 42 eva
    RNH #52 C 21 Eva
    Khaira #50 LW 14 eva
    Kassian # 53 RW 11 Eva
    Archibald #69 RW 9 Eva
    Chaisson #73 RW 8 Eva
    Granlund #73 RW 8 Eva
    Neal #91 LW 8 eva
    Gagner #79 RW 7 Eva

    14 Eva is #99 th for centers.
    But with natural advantage for assists from shorter distribution
    Maybe Khaira could be a 3C option for the oilers.
    I would take a top 62 C 19 eva rate.
    Just need him to generate evg like 17-18.

    Ricki – for my own clarity here, when you’re talking about most centres being righthanded, you mean that they shoot right, not that they’re actually stronger with their right hand? I’m pretty sure there are more left shot centres than right shots.

    I.e. McDavid shoots left, but is right handed. Playing with McDavid, or Nuge is more likely to benefit the RW rather than the LW, forehand pass to forehand shot. Drai throws a wrench in those works by having an awesome backhand pass of course.

  56. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom Persson
    Jones Benning
    Russell

    Be bold Tip!

    Nat stat trick’s WOWY
    Says
    Try again!

  57. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    PennersPancakes: Agree with the sentiment, not the valuation. I would personally put Russel in the bin of Benning/Jones/Persson/Lagesson and not the Klefbom/Larsson/Nurse box.

    More of a 3-5 way tie for fourth best dman in my mind, so if the coach can get similar performance why not prepare for the future and develop a youngin? Although Persson and Lagesson are complete wild cards for what they will bring in the NHL, good or bad.

    This. Plus another poster was discussing “load management” a few weeks ago, which could work well for the D this year. Get to see who is capable of what to inform decisions that will have implications for the next few years.

  58. OilFire says:

    rickithebear: Binary Computer science sucks!
    Getting Binary thinkers like most of the academic community to analyze in a multivariable way is going to be interesting.

    This is something you’ve said a few times now Ricki.I promise you that those of us in the academic community use multivariable analysis.

    I suspect you’re either using the word incorrectly, because if not, you’ve somehow missed out on the last few hundred years of mathematics developed by “academics”.

  59. godot10 says:

    rickithebear: Nat stat trick’s WOWY
    Says
    Try again!

    If Larsson has as poor a year as he had last year…yeah…it won’t work, but then the OIlers are screwed regardless. One has to hope and believe that last year was an anomaly or the Oilers are effed. It is July so one has to hope…

    There are no WOWY’s with Persson.

    What is the path to making the playoffs with this D? Larsson having a good year with Nurse on a shutdown pair, and Persson surprising paired with a vet like Klefbom.

    And Benning rocking the 3rd pair with Jones or Lagesson.

    Nurse wants to be a bell cow (and be paid for it). Let’s see if he can do it. Larsson is familiar with being on a shutdown pair from Jersey.

    Lets free Klefbom like St. Louis freed Pieterangelo.

    And let’s slot Benning where we know he is good, in a soft minutes role, and let him break in a young D.

  60. Side says:

    OilFire: This is something you’ve said a few times now Ricki.I promise you that those of us in the academic community use multivariable analysis.

    Only because he told you guys too. He has been doing it for YEARS now!

  61. rickithebear says:

    WOWY per natvstat trick
    Klefbom Larsson 1025:01 EVTOI 2.47evga/60
    Nurse- Russell 1079:52 EVTOI 2.28 evga/60

    Benning with
    Sekera 336:06 2.59 evga/60
    Gravel 167:04 1.80 evga/60
    Nurse 147:34 3.66 evga/60
    Garrison 127:40 1.86 evga/60
    Manning 91:57 1.31 evga/60
    Klefbom 41:49 2.87 evga/60
    Jones 40:28 5.93 evga/60

    Based on numbers Klefbom and Nurse were more responsible d paired with 1 of the best HD dmen & 1 of the best Dmen at reducing open shot %

    The worst evga results (primary role of dman) for Benning were the 3 highest % rovers.

    The first 2 pairs results should be better with Tippett pushing a 3-2-1 structure.
    Klefbom – Larsson 2.47 evga/60
    Nurse – Russell 2.28 evga/60
    Manning – Benning 1.31 evga/60

    These pairings are based on real results.

    But I enjoy peoples ideas.
    A schematic based justification might help counter the WOWY evidence.

  62. rickithebear says:

    Oilfire:

    What academic institution?

    What field?

  63. Faustkarz says:

    Ricki, for the WOWY of those defensive pairs, wouldn’t you need more variables to make it less binary such as FWD’s on the ice, OZS%, EliteComp%, evgf/60, on-ice sv%, xGF%

    isn’t evga/60 a binary statistic? seems to more suit a narrative than to shine a light.

    Wouldn’t a multivariable analysis be multi-variable? Not just evga/60

  64. pts2pndr says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – That is all true, and feel good stories.But the purpose of drafting is ultimately to get players into the NHL, not just to outperform their drafted slot.Great the 7th rounder “outperformed”.He’s a “victory on some level, but doesn’t matter.

    – But we need to draft guys who play in the NHL at above replacement level to move the needle.We haven’t done that.Things won’t change untill we do

    – The problem with just taking games played, or doing better than expected is that it doesn’t measure what impacts resultsDrafting 1 Brodziak and 3 duds in 7th round >>>>> than 4 Kemps, (I’m assuming Kemp doesn’t make the NHL, for my illustration)

    I believe we can cut the drafting a break of sorts We had one year no AHL affiliate and several years with a shared agreement with Montreal. Hamilton, Pitlick and a number of other prospects were rushed to the AHL and then given very limited ice time. I think it could reasonably argued that development and or lack of has been a big part of our lack of success. We have also moved on from a number of players that have had productive NHL careers with other organizations. No matter how you look at the draft and development of the Oiler organization it has overall been poor to incompetently disgraceful.

  65. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: I believe we can cut the drafting a break of sorts We had one year no AHL affiliate and several years with a shared agreement with Montreal. Hamilton, Pitlickand a number of other prospects were rushed to the AHL and then given very limited ice time. I think it could reasonably argued that development and or lack of has been a big part of our lack of success. We have also moved on from a number of players that have had productive NHL careers with other organizations. No matter how you look at the draft and development of the Oiler organization it has overall been poor to incompetently disgraceful.

    Hamilton was given limited ice time. When Pitlick was healthy, he played. The year Hamilton had limted ice time, most of the forwards, except three, were first or second year pros.

  66. pts2pndr says:

    JimmyV1965: Like him or hate him, Russell is our fourth best dman right now. He will be deployed that way by the coach until other dmen pass him on the depth chart. The GM might want to trade the player yesterday, but it won’t change the way the coaching staff deploys him.Russel will be press boxed if and only if the coach thinks he’s the seventh best dman on the team; not some ultimatum by the GM.

    If the GM trades him he becomes someone else’s problem. As it stands if we have a better option for the second pairing right D spot, than Russel he should be moved. Our options for third pairing left D are numerous

  67. rickithebear says:

    Side: Only because he told you guys too.He has been doing it for YEARS now!

    No technology programs have been doing it for close to fifty years.
    They address all three points of the triarchial intelligence theory.
    Design – Run – Fix
    All diffrent parts of the brain.

    All 3 components of machine motion.
    Maximize build – construct roster
    Maximize operation – Run most efficient goal dif actions & schemes
    Maximize repair/retrofit – adopt new +ve goal diff actions

    Their is multivariable options in each of the 3.

    Almost all the Graduates of an Academic ( not technological) institution in the last 25 years has show to be lacking in 2 of the 3 multivariable intelligences.

    Except one who’s dad had a gravel crushing company.
    Grew up playing with meccano and operated & repaired company equipment.
    Who is into 3D priniting of resin parts for his radio operated meccano scale versions of a gravel crushing site.

    As well as 1 kid Who graduated 4 years ago who grew up in a northern tree skidding operation.
    Who has similiar spectrum function.

    Most new academics I have dealt with are concerned with pleasing the manager.
    Getting the check list filled.
    They do not get the needed action correct even if it means changing the managers perception.

    One of the reasons I was name hired for jobs dating back 20 years was a I could go to a site.
    Read all the contracts.
    Operation and repair manuals
    Understand the best retrofit options to maximize performance for the 33 sub structure of 11 engineering fields of work.

    I look forward to having my perception changed on the multivariable options on the multivariable intelligence diffrent brain functions required for full intelligence. that academia is now addressing.

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    Durag: Is there any site that breaks down EV and PP SH%? Just by eye, it seemed like Leon shot damn near 50% on the PP. I wonder if the EV SH% is more sustainable.

    Not sure if anybody has answered this yet, but I would use naturalstattrick.com for that.

  69. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Hamilton was given limited ice time.When Pitlick was healthy, he played.The year Hamilton had limted ice time, most of the forwards, except three, were first or second year pros.

    These players should have been given an extra year of junior or given ice time to progress in the AHL. There was a definite disconnect between organizational management and the AHL team. There was more emphasis on winning than development. The results speak for themselves.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t imagine Russell not being in the lineup on game 1, subject to injury.

    Trust me, I’m more excited about Jones and Persson and their puck moving and think that Lagesson could absolutely handle the 3LD (and would prove to be a plus 3LD in little time) but I think Tippett will have his veteran in the lineup even with his verbal re: time defending and moving the puck as 5 man units.

  71. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: Like him or hate him, Russell is our fourth best dman right now. He will be deployed that way by the coach until other dmen pass him on the depth chart. The GM might want to trade the player yesterday, but it won’t change the way the coaching staff deploys him.Russel will be press boxed if and only if the coach thinks he’s the seventh best dman on the team; not some ultimatum by the GM.

    I don’t like or hate Russel. 😉

    I disagree that on ice deployment is decided by who is the best player though. I think on ice deployment should be decided by the best fit.

    The idea isn’t to assemble the best players. The idea is to assemble the best team. Those two aren’t exactly the same thing imo.

  72. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: What I was really objecting to was the notion that the GM should give him some kind of ultimatum; agree to be traded or your in the press box. Silly idea on so many levels.

    I hope that is not referring to what I posted because that is not at all what I wrote.

  73. Bulging Twine says:

    Sean Tierney Retweeted

    Michael Russo
    @RussoHockey
    ·
    Jul 22
    With the #mnwild working toward refilling their analytics department, I’m hearing GM Paul Fenton has hired Hockey Canada’s Mat Sells. He did advanced pre-scout and analytics

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    DarthTu: The idea of a Nurse Larsson “top” or shutdown pairing to play against the opposition top lines has really grown on me.

    I guess the Klefbom pairing would really be down to who’s performing better at any given time, be it Persson or Benning.

    If Persson shits the bed then we always have the option of bringing Russell back into the lineup and bumping Benning or Jones up to RD with Klef.

    I’m completely excluding thoughts of Bear or Bouchard jumping from the AHL for now.

    Completely agree on the last line – as at the end of last year Lagesson and Jones are both well ahead of Bear as far as NHL readiness – hopefully Bear has had his deficiencies (defending speed on puck retrieval and off the rush and general board battles) and has been working on related areas this off-season.

    Its imperative that the organization is risk-adverse with its most important prospect and allow Bouchard to get some regular top 4 non-sheltered minutes in the AHL even after he puts up 6 points in 4 preseason games and makes a few tantalizing passes. Unlike other years, there are actual legit options to allow that to happen.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilredux: – That is all true, and feel good stories.But the purpose of drafting is ultimately to get players into the NHL, not just to outperform their drafted slot.Great the 7th rounder “outperformed”.He’s a “victory on some level, but doesn’t matter.

    – But we need to draft guys who play in the NHL at above replacement level to move the needle.We haven’t done that.Things won’t change untill we do

    – The problem with just taking games played, or doing better than expected is that it doesn’t measure what impacts resultsDrafting 1 Brodziak and 3 duds in 7th round than 4 Kemps, (I’m assuming Kemp doesn’t make the NHL, for my illustration)

    I don’t disagree – the main purpose of the draft is to acquire NHL players and NHL players that impact the lineup but there are secondary and tertiary purposes as well. There needs to be players competing for NHL jobs, even if they don’t make it, there needs to be players to fill out the AHL and ECHL teams and its important the AHL team have success.

    If Phil Kemp signs a contract with the Oilers and plays 150 games in Bakersfield over the course of a few years and compete for a job with the Oilers and maybe get a cup of coffee – that have value to the organization.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Durag: Is there any site that breaks down EV and PP SH%? Just by eye, it seemed like Leon shot damn near 50% on the PP. I wonder if the EV SH% is more sustainable.

    20% at 5 on5

    23.44% at 5 on 4

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v4&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=C&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    I have to keep pinching myself. It wasn’t just a dream. Lucic contract is gone!

    It is indeed gone and it is am amazing and wonderful thing.

    Of course, its currently been replaced by another currently very ugly contract, however that contract is not nearly as ugly and not nearly as “clingy” (which is very important) and it actually has a chance to spruce itself up to a half pretty level.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: This is correct imo. And I would add that if you want Russell to facilitate a trade at the deadline the best way to do that is to make it clear that staying with the Oilers will sewer any chance he has at a next contract because press box dmen do not command a lot of money come UFA season the following summer.

    Nice to have Russell in case of injuries or slumps but he is not part of the future and he is not going to cost or win enough games this year that he shouldn’t be thought of as the spare guy.

    At the same time, how is it possible to get a clean (or anywhere near clean) disposition of Russ next off-season without him playing games?

  79. Bulging Twine says:

    Do we know what the Oil have for analytics? There is nothing on their website.
    Shayna from The Athletic has Justin Mahe as Manager of Hockey Analysis. Do we know anything about Justin Mahe? When he was hired? Anything?

  80. Bulging Twine says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Do we know what the Oil have for analytics?There is nothing on their website.
    Shayna from The Athletic has Justin Mahe as Manager of Hockey Analysis.Do we know anything about Justin Mahe?When he was hired?Anything?

    I did find this from 2016
    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/oilers-announce-changes-to-hockey-operations/c-890460

  81. Revolved says:

    godot10,

    I agree that we probably need to start running two rookies in the starting six on opening night. I like the idea of dressing Russell as 7D in order to reduce the minutes played by those rookies, though. I think we can get by with 11F if we run the three centres with more balanced minutes and spotting them with the bottom two wingers.

  82. Revolved says:

    The thing about puck and player tracking is that it is going to push even well developed analytics departments to have to change their approach. The kind of big data that such tracking will create is going to require rooms full of programmers that are capable of creating algorithms for processing it in different ways. These people are in such great demand from many different sectors that it will be difficult for NHL teams that are not already connected to such networks to recruit them and give them the proper guidance.

  83. GMB3 says:

    Bag of Pucks: The saving grace is the vast majority of hockey GMs are still pretty old school on analytics. Chayka and Dubas are outliers, not the norm.

    So most of the guys Holland is competing against approach it from the same perspective and skillset.

    Innovation works quickest when circumstances force it. When an NHL team starts to win Cups and attributes much of their competitive advantage to analytics, that’s when the rest will get onboard. I suspect the puck tracking data will be key to this as to date, the data has largely been proxies. With puck tracking, they’re going to have directly correlative datasets and it’s much easier to draw insights from that. Even still, building effective decision models off that big data isn’t easy and that talent is expensive and in demand by everyone.

    We’ve been talking about it for years, but the reality is it’s very very early days for analytics in hockey. Most of the clubs are dabblers not adopters. And outside ARZ and possibly FLA, there’s very few instances where data is driving the decision models and organizational culture.

    I believe Carolina and Vegas belong in here as well. Seems lots of the moves Carolina has made have met the approval of the analytics community on twitter in the least

  84. leadfarmer says:

    Ricki is king of binary thinking
    Evgf for forwards 1 or 0
    GA for defensemen 1 or 0
    The most binary analysis on the blogosphere

  85. Professor Q says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Do we know what the Oil have for analytics?There is nothing on their website.
    Shayna from The Athletic has Justin Mahe as Manager of Hockey Analysis.Do we know anything about Justin Mahe?When he was hired?Anything?

    Mahe help guide a strong analytical future for the Oilers.

  86. Bulging Twine says:

    Revolved:
    The thing about puck and player tracking is that it is going to push even well developed analytics departments to have to change their approach. The kind of big data that such tracking will create is going to require rooms full of programmers that are capable of creating algorithms for processing it in different ways. These people are in such great demand from many different sectors that it will be difficult for NHL teams that are not already connected to such networks to recruit them and give them the proper guidance.

    Yes those teams without good analytic departments are behind the 8 ball. They’ll have to hire people to hire people.

    Where as the teams that have analytic departments already established are already onto the next step of anticipating and preparing for the new data.

  87. Bulging Twine says:

    Professor Q: Mahe help guide a strong analytical future for the Oilers.

    well done

  88. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ricki is king of binary thinking
    Evgf for forwards 1 or 0
    GA for defensemen 1 or 0
    The most binary analysis on the blogosphere

    Not only that but he has no idea how hockey is played. His “theorem” of the structural “advantage” of centers in scoring because they play in the middle of the ice might reflect table hockey but it doesn’t reflect actual hockey. In actual hockey there are no positions once you leave the defensive zone. The data is meaningless.

    Moreover, I bet he is calculating his average per position based on how it is commonly listed which, as we all know, does not reflect where players actual line up on a shift by shift basis.

    Finally, just the other day he admitted he had no idea what was meant by replacement player. Which means he does not understand the concept of marginal gains.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    Well he doesn’t get that the reasons most top scorers are centers is not positional on the ice but because most top players are played at center at a young age to get them more involved at every point on the ice.
    One of the ways coaches have used to get an offensive boost is opposite of bear theory
    Example of this is Giroux moving to wing

  90. Ben says:

    My current anxiety about next season mostly involves Persson making the team.

    Gene: “Hey wait…Persson…that sounds just like the word ‘person’!” I can just swap the player name right in there where the word would go! Quinn’s gonna shit his pants!”.

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Russell 3LD with a competent partner would be just fine and a solid fill in at 2LD.

    The problem is everyone is LD, so it’s either rookies or him at RD.

    Maybe we see a balance miracle still.

    Players not being ideal is different than useless given no better option.

  92. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    Well he doesn’t get that the reasons most top scorers are centers is not positional on the ice but because most top players are played at center at a young age to get them more involved at every point on the ice.
    One of the ways coaches have used to get an offensive boost is opposite of bear theory
    Example of this is Giroux moving to wing

    Exactly. There exists an incredibly obvious alternative hypothesis to his “facts” and not only does he not investigate it, it doesn’t even occur to him.

    And his conclusion is so, so, wrong. It is more likely that it is harder for centers to score goals because they spend more of the game as F3, because they spend more of the game lower in the defensive zone.

  93. Scungilli Slushy says:

    NHL teams are not going be able to manage crunching puck tracking data. They won’t want to. Somebody’s going to make a pile doing that.

  94. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Many love the story of young people with limited experience coming in hot with fresh big ideas and blowing everything up.

    The thing is it rarely happens in established industry. The NHL isn’t some old dusty relic where everyone is a dinosaur and is 50 years out of date.

    Even Vic Ferrari said he thought GMs knew what they were doing. He works for one now.

    Yes this is a math blog as the host says, but it remains that data is a lens on the game, not the frame.

    When teams are wrong it isn’t a data problem necessarily, all teams now do that, it’s a concept problem.

    Chiarelli isn’t a dense man, he’s just not right in his philosophy. McLellan isn’t a bad coach, he’s made errors in managing people and strategy like Hitch. They can change, if they don’t then they’re dinosaurs.

    For Dubas and Chayka, show me consistent high level success and I’ll buy the hype. We don’t know yet just like drafted players.

    The game of hockey isn’t as big as trying to analyze world wide industry and national trends in business. A person like Holland or any correct thinking individual with decades of experience should be able to read the lay of the land pretty quickly and know who’s getting things done.

    All of you who are good at your jobs can do this, why shouldn’t they be able? Data can give the fine grain insights into a team after the big picture is set. It’s a tool to delve deeper and refine. But it’s a tool, not the hand that wields it.

    My instinct is those (which are few) that try to run teams by analytics as the primary decision maker won’t ultimately succeed, that isn’t Billy Bean at all.

  95. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: At the same time, how is it possible to get a clean (or anywhere near clean) disposition of Russ next off-season without him playing games?

    Good point. I think there is usually a market for veteran dmen at the the trade deadlne though. But you are right. That would make it more difficult.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Good point. I think there is usually a market for veteran dmen at the the trade deadlne though. But you are right. That would make it more difficult.

    Also, the general market at that time is for players on expiring contracts, not those with a full year of (bloated) term left.

  97. rickithebear says:

    Faustkarz:
    Ricki, for the WOWY of those defensive pairs, wouldn’t you need more variables to make it less binary such as FWD’s on the ice, OZS%, EliteComp%, evgf/60, on-ice sv%, xGF%

    isn’t evga/60 a binary statistic? seems to more suit a narrative than to shine a light.

    Wouldn’t a multivariable analysis be multi-variable? Not just evga/60

    Damn straight.

    The fact that you did not list that evga is a function of
    Fwd NZ trap, GA structure 2-1 or 1-1, and seperste Dpair and goalie performance.
    Tells me you are being facetious.
    Likely a fan of a PDO.

    We can identify the 3-2-1 dmen and 3-1-1-1 dmen.
    We know Nurse, Klefbom, Jones, Bear are 3-1-1-1
    1-1 breakdown of 2-1 structure is 100% rovers cause until 2-1 structure is recovered.

    We can look at a Corsi faced rates from our forwards.
    All are big minute Dmen faced 56-59 CA/60
    Not normal large variance that can occur.

    We can adjust for faceoff zone start
    Russell 45.2%
    Larsson 46.2%
    Nurse 46.9%
    Sekera 46.9%
    Gravel 48.4%
    Klefbom 49.0%
    Garrison 50.4%
    Benning 50.7%
    Manning 53.0%

    We can adjust for bench change zone start with without puck.
    On the fly starts/60 are indicated but not differentiated by with or without.
    With a faceoff to on fly ratio for each dman
    But no database I found differentiates with or without.

    What we know from WOWY
    Larsson & Russell are still able generate avg evga with rovers Klefbom & Nurse.
    But Benning & others are unable to deal with rovers.

  98. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Russell will have a significant role on the D Corp unless traded. Maybe Holland and Tip are cagey enough for us to see our first pump and dump in decades!

  99. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn: I hope that is not referring to what I posted because that is not at all what I wrote.

    My apologies. I misread your post. This is what you said;

    And I would add that if you want Russell to facilitate a trade at the deadline the best way to do that is to make it clear that staying with the Oilers will sewer any chance he has at a next contract because press box dmen do not command a lot of money come UFA season the following summer.

    I just assumed this was an ultimatum by the GM. I’m still not sure what you meant then.

  100. rickithebear says:

    Cassandra: Not only that but he has no idea how hockey is played.His “theorem” of the structural “advantage” of centers in scoring because they play in the middle of the ice might reflect table hockey but it doesn’t reflect actual hockey.In actual hockey there are no positions once you leave the defensive zone. The data is meaningless.

    Moreover, I bet he is calculating his average per position based on how it is commonly listed which, as we all know, does not reflect where players actual line up on a shift by shift basis.

    Finally, just the other day he admitted he had no idea what was meant by replacement player.Which means he does not understand the concept of marginal gains.

    I understand War as it relates to a perfect binary sport like Baseball.

    The large factor influences are understood by everyone so marginal gains are the way you try to beat the other team on a seasonal basis.

    Then they build a playoff system were you do not have to face a 5 man rotation base.
    Throws all analytics out the window.
    The teams with the 2 most elite pitchers has a high prob of moving thru in a series.

    But to ignore 100% to 700% influences for marginal gains in hockey is a fools game.
    Until everyone is playing like robots and have eliminated large margin factors.
    What does a marginal gain tell you when large factors have scued any result.

    Of coarse there is F1, F2, F3 Analysis.
    But a move to a center based attack is still part of the equation in all even play.

    Yup I do not know as much as you who has tracked the sides of attack of each player.

    Not likening the level of vitriol I am directing over the last while.

    Large factor influences have to be played same way by all.
    To have marginal gains matter.

    It is not baseball!

  101. Ryan says:

    From a recent thread, we were discussing man-to-man vs zone d.

    Hitchcock and Mclellan both experienced coaches preferred the man-to-man d zone coverage.

    There was a quote from an unnamed dman who cited the Blues struggling under Mike Yeo’s man-to-man d zone system before he was replaced but Berube who had implemented zone d coverage.

    Funny how I found an article that suggested the Blues had success under Hitchcock with a zone d system then came unglued the following season when he implemented a man-to-man d zone system. He was fired and replaced by Mike Yeo who subsequently had success with a zone coverage system.

    https://www.stltoday.com/sports/hockey/professional/blues-get-big-results-from-small-changes-on-defense/article_12cc2fad-a2f0-50ff-8407-0ffe3da10c09.html

    So basically, Hitch has success with zone d, switches to man-to-man d, it doesn’t work his team struggles then he gets fired from the Blues.

    Mike Yeo is hired, he reverts back to zone d, the team has a modicum of success. Next season, he switches to man-to-man d, the teams struggles, bottom of the league and he gets fired.

    Berube comes in, implements zone d, team makes the playoffs and wins the cup.

    By several accounts man-to-man d zone coverage doesn’t work post lockout without clutch and grab, so what’s going on here?

  102. OilFire says:

    rickithebear: I look forward to having my perception changed on the multivariable options on the multivariable intelligence diffrent brain functions required for full intelligence. that academia is now addressing.

    Ricki: Tell me what you mean by “multivariable” that academia is just finally catching on to.

    Please, humor me and write out a short (3 sentence or less) definition of this new idea. Also, please avoid describing it imprecisely by listing comparisons or examples if you can.

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan:
    From a recent thread, we were discussing man-to-man vs zone d.

    Hitchcock and Mclellan both experienced coaches preferred the man-to-man d zone coverage.

    There was a quote from an unnamed dman who cited the Blues struggling under Mike Yeo’s man-to-man d zone system before he was replaced but Berube who had implemented zone d coverage.

    Funny how I found an article that suggested the Blues had success under Hitchcock with a zone d system then came unglued the following season when he implemented a man-to-man d zone system. He was fired and replaced by Mike Yeo who subsequently had success with a zone coverage system.

    https://www.stltoday.com/sports/hockey/professional/blues-get-big-results-from-small-changes-on-defense/article_12cc2fad-a2f0-50ff-8407-0ffe3da10c09.html

    So basically, Hitch has success with zone d, switches to man-to-man d, it doesn’t work his team struggles then he gets fired from the Blues.

    Mike Yeo is hired, he reverts back to zone d, the team has a modicum of success. Next season, he switches to man-to-man d, the teams struggles, bottom of the league and he gets fired.

    Berube comes in, implements zone d, team makes the playoffs and wins the cup.

    By several accounts man-to-man d zone coverage doesn’t work post lockout without clutch and grab, so what’s going on here?

    Calls from inside the house is my guess. Not getting the hoped results, looking for the answers, and coming up with the wrong problem as the issue to begin with.

    Thus my comment about data as the answer to problems. It only lights up the room, you still have to find what you’re looking for with correct decisions.

    It’s human condition that wreaks havoc across the board, not just hockey.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan:
    From a recent thread, we were discussing man-to-man vs zone d.

    Hitchcock and Mclellan both experienced coaches preferred the man-to-man d zone coverage.

    There was a quote from an unnamed dman who cited the Blues struggling under Mike Yeo’s man-to-man d zone system before he was replaced but Berube who had implemented zone d coverage.

    Funny how I found an article that suggested the Blues had success under Hitchcock with a zone d system then came unglued the following season when he implemented a man-to-man d zone system. He was fired and replaced by Mike Yeo who subsequently had success with a zone coverage system.

    https://www.stltoday.com/sports/hockey/professional/blues-get-big-results-from-small-changes-on-defense/article_12cc2fad-a2f0-50ff-8407-0ffe3da10c09.html

    So basically, Hitch has success with zone d, switches to man-to-man d, it doesn’t work his team struggles then he gets fired from the Blues.

    Mike Yeo is hired, he reverts back to zone d, the team has a modicum of success. Next season, he switches to man-to-man d, the teams struggles, bottom of the league and he gets fired.

    Berube comes in, implements zone d, team makes the playoffs and wins the cup.

    By several accounts man-to-man d zone coverage doesn’t work post lockout without clutch and grab, so what’s going on here?

    Why do these experienced coaches switch to man to man and stick with it after it continues to lead to negative results?

  105. pts2pndr says:

    v4ance:
    When I did a draft analysis of the years from 2000-2010, the cutoff I used was 100 games/player to try find an average drafting result.From that data, if you got 5 players out of every two draft years, you were doing about the average.Elite drafting teams tended to be 3 players per draft but the Oilers always hovered around the middle or the lower end of the spectrum.

    From other studies, the average career of an NHLer turned out to be ~250 games or about 3 seasons.This basically represents a 3rd line player or a top 6 player whose career was shortened due to injury.Top line guys or 1st pair defencemen usually get to about 500 games.

    From a holistic team building perspective, getting a draft pick to play 100 games should be regarded as a success. I know some people refer to picks as magic beans and players who only do 100 games as replacement level players but you do want as many of these guys or lottery tickets as possible.There’s always roster churn as the bottom 6 guys cycle in and out as they are found to be not good enough to stick around or to be promoted to higher in the lineup.

    When you can’t get enough picks or players to this minimal level, you end up overpaying for bottom 6 guys as UFAs which is doubly damaging with a cap limit.You need as many cheap homegrown guys as you can find so you can allocate the maximum amount to star players.“Pay for elite talent, scrimp on the complimentary or replacement players” should be the overriding mantra.Draft picks are a renewable resource… cap money is not

    If we look at the situation of Zack Kassian, he really shouldn’t get over $2 million going forward.His success with McDavid is nice but away from McDavid, he’s like any other bottom 6 grinder.Don’t overpay for guys who are carried by elite talent.We should have learned that from Maroon, Chaisson, Rattie, etc. by now.Next year’s one year wonder could be Khaira or Maxisimov or Benson.We don’t know who will be on McDavid’s wing so don’t overpay for them if they’re not a guaranteed top line player.

    That’s why the salary tiers broken down into 1st line, 2nd line, etc. would and should never work.On paper, it sounds nice but one year a guy can go on a heater onto the first line but if you pay him for that temporary bump, the next year you have an overpaid bottom 6 player and a salary cap anchor (AKA the Chiarelli method).Plus entitlement would be an issue as every 2nd liner who spends a few minutes elevated up the lineup would be wanting to be paid as a 1st liner, every 3rd liner elevated to 2nd will be wanting to be paid as a 2nd liner, etc. etc…

    A quality GM should always grind hard in salary negotiations because you never know when you might need that extra money. It might lose you a few players due to hurt feelings or entitlement just like in the Petry situation but it might also allow you to sign Hall to a bargain $6 million.If you can shave some salary on 50% of your contracts, you have more leeway in case you do make mistakes or in case you want to fit in an opportunistic acquisition from another cap strapped team. Salary cap space is an asset and if you don’t try to maximize how you use it, you miss opportunities to improve or you do long term damage with cap anchors.

    The Petry stupidity started the landslide of mistakes including the trading of Taylor Hall. Ego should not enter into the bargaining process. There is a fine line between hard bargaining and unfair bargaining. Cheap or unfair bargaining reaps its own rewards and they’re not pretty.

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Why do these experienced coaches switch to man to man and stick with it after it continues to lead to negative results?

    Bull headed and attributing success to the wrong factors like having matured exceptional players.

    The Oilers have exceptional players but the key ones aren’t mature as players yet, and also, the game has changed. It might have been a hack given nobody does it, if the situation suited. But it didn’t. That was the fail in judgement.

  107. Lowetide says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Calls from inside the house is my guess. Not getting the hoped results, looking for the answers, and coming up with the wrong problem as the issue to begin with.

    Thus my comment about data as the answer to problems. It only lights up the room, you still have to find what you’re looking for with correct decisions.

    It’s human condition that wreaks havoc across the board, not just hockey.

    Bill James had this chapter in one of his abstracts about commanding officers when he was doing military duty. It was weekends and summers, he was in the reserve. Anyway, whenever a new commander took over he would change the daily schedule and paint the mess hall a different color to change things up. It’s human nature, as you say.

  108. Faustkarz says:

    rickithebear,

    Firstly no, PDO is a dumb statistic simply by the basis of having a personal shooting% 20 and on-ice save% 80 is dissimilar to a 5% shooting and 95% because the skater’s effect on his own shooting percentage is stronger than their affect on a goalie yet both = 1 mutatis mutandis

    evga seems to be far more variant than just FZ Trap, having two stay at home D (2-1) and whether they block shots (0% closed shot theory). ie most common forward linemates, outlet pass ability success/completion rate, partner’s ability

    Can you definitively say that in the NHL that two rovers playing with each other have NEVER outscored two 2-1 defensemen when playing on the same pairs, accounting for linemates, zone starts, xSV%, etc.?

    I do agree with some or most of what you say but calling something binary or multi-variate without a legitimate algorithm which produces a definitive number is meaningless to me. It is no different than your idea of constructivist narrative building because YOU are choosing the 5 variables but with no definitive proof they are the 5 variables WE should be looking at.

    You say evga is a function of 5 variables but at what rate do all 5 affect evga. Home ice quality I am sure affects evga but at an unmeasurable (probably could) rate. You can have infinite variables but which one’s are statistically significant as the “academics” say.. that is up to actual algorithmic analysis and generation and the results therein not by narrative building.

  109. Ranford.85 says:

    This completely off topic.

    I’m a lowtide/athletic junkie and growing up Cgy (born in Edm) has made my love for Oil an interesting journey.

    Anyone have a stat on Lucic’s hits given/taken? I feel like Looch had a target on his back from day one of his contract with the Oilers. I do know he always at the top of the league for hits given….

    I feel like the Flames are now that one team that everyone will want rough up. It’s hard to provide protection for the stars when you’re on the 3rd/4th line.

    Ps. Anyone see that Kassian highlight package on the Oilers IG? Wow

  110. Mr DeBakey says:

    Rutger Hauer died this week.

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/jul/25/rutger-hauer-obituary

    First time I saw him was at the Varscona in “Soldier of Orange.”

  111. Ranford.85 says:

    I understand why it didn’t hit the mainstream media…

    But after Jujhar signed his extension this summer, he talked about training and hanging out with RNH and Gagner. Burnaby Nuge got hitched this summer and JK was there, along with Jultz, Ebs and Klefbom.

    Unicorns…
    McD-Kass (skill, speed and actual protection… watch the highlights)
    Drai-Chai (numbers don’t lie)
    Jujhar-RNH (toughest zone starts, friends, PK/saw off the comp 5v5)
    Nygard-Haas (speed, skill and experience/maturity)

    Conclusion: If Nuge and Jujhar lined up against every teams best line and came out 50/50… Drai and McD could destroy on different lines.

  112. leadfarmer says:

    OilFire: Ricki:Tell me what you mean by “multivariable” that academia is just finally catching on to.

    Please, humor me and write out a short (3 sentence or less) definition of this new idea.Also, please avoid describing it imprecisely by listing comparisons or examples if you can.

    Don’t worry you will just be called an idiot
    Followed by he’s been tracking bees for 20 years
    Followed by a social justice warrior rant
    Followed by the history of 2 ply toilet paper

    I don’t get why LT allows him to treat his guests on here this way
    The loudest voice in the room used to get pushed out by the smartest in the room in the past
    But the smartest people have given up
    Wood guy was getting called a plagiarist and rarely post and when he does he does not acknowledge this poster because of blatant attacks on him
    Bruce will chime in one the outskirts but you can tell he doesn’t want to deal with this
    I get called an idiot on a daily basis (I’m definitely not the smartest man in the room)
    I’ve been coming here at least every day for 12 years
    LT put me through residency, fellowship and first 5 years of practice
    Today will be my last
    Good luck to all

  113. Revolved says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Do you have any idea how freely available the puck tracking data will be? It would create incredible innovation in player valuation and strategy if it was freely available and open source.

  114. Revolved says:

    leadfarmer,

    Oh come on, Ricki’s quite warm and cuddly. His posts are just so big he doesn’t realize when he’s mauling other posters. I have time for a lot of his theories, though I think it’s important to remember that every idea is built on other people’s work and is only valuable when communicated properly, refined and accepted by the community.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: Don’t worry you will just be called an idiot
    Followed by he’s been tracking bees for 20 years
    Followed by a social justice warrior rant
    Followed by the history of 2 ply toilet paper

    I don’t get why LT allows him to treat his guests on here this way
    The loudest voice in the room used to get pushed out by the smartest in the room in the past
    But the smartest people have given up
    Wood guy was getting called a plagiarist and rarely post and when he does he does not acknowledge this poster because of blatant attacks on him
    Bruce will chime in one the outskirts but you can tell he doesn’t want to deal with this
    I get called an idiot on a daily basis (I’m definitely not the smartest man in the room)
    I’ve been coming here at least every day for 12 years
    LT put me through residency, fellowship and first 5 years of practice
    Today will be my last
    Good luck to all

    Sad to see you go, Leadfarmer. I used to get frustrated with Mr thebear’s posts too, until I stopped reading them – even if he is replying directly to me. This may not work / be an option for you, but it certainly has made a difference for me.

    There are a few other posters who I sometimes skip over for one reason or another, but nobody that gets consistently ignored like Mr thebear. Although I wish him a full and speedy recovery.

  116. Cassandra says:

    We can add selecting on the dependent variable as another basic social science error that Ricki commits.

    Coding certain D as “rovers” when no such position exists couldn’t be more binary.

  117. treevojo says:

    leadfarmer,

    ArmchairGM,

    Cassandra,

    Usually I just skip down to the last paragraph of the BEARS posts to see which poster he is calling an idiot this time to give me a chuckle.

    The rest of it I find unreadable nonsense.

    Works for me.

  118. deardylan says:

    Conflict Resolution. Pick a style and see which one works well for you. I pick Yield

    Avoidance- read his last line or skip over, or avoid blogs where he hangs out completely, opt out of all two way hockey discussions

    Competition- show me your stats, im smarter than you and ill show you

    Compromise- let him continue posting, respect his opinion by agreeing to disagree

    Yield – see him as a genius and see if he posts less inflamatory remarks

    Collaboration- find a win plus win, take the guy out to lunch at his fav restaurant, hear some of his epic tales of love and life, come away a wiser petson with 1 less enemy to inflame you

  119. Lowetide says:

    Please refrain from making comments that imply expertise on why employment for women has increased over time. Surely there are some things out of our collective area of knowledge. Thanks.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca