In the early 1970’s, an English art-rock group released a song called “Do The Strand” that had a cold intro, a forceful energy and many suggestions about where you could do it, as well as some interesting establishments one might want to visit while in Europe.
The song did not tell us what The Strand was supposed to look like, and pop history has many songs that spend a lot of time on the exact movement (The Twist) involved in getting it right.
Not so the strand. Do it. I do believe a saxophone is supposed to be involved, possibly French royalty too, but beyond that your interpretation this morning in your kitchen will be as authentic as anything produced in 1973.
What does that have to do with the Oilers? Do the strand and find out.
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: Did the Oilers find the new Fernando Pisani when signing Derek Ryan?
- New Jonathan Willis: Tyler Benson, Devin Shore and the 4-year difference between a prospect and a has-been
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from Zach Hyman in his first season?
- Lowetide: Dylan Holloway headlines new arrivals for Bakersfield Condors in 2021-22
- Lowetide: Will the Ethan Bear trade be the latest shortsighted move that haunts the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers fans should expect more trades and a deep playoff run this season
- Lowetide: How much playing time will Evan Bouchard get with the Oilers this coming season?
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the 2021-22 Oilers?
- Lowetide: What are the Oilers’ ‘perfect lines’ for next season?
- Lowetide: The Oilers and value contracts. Three now, two later
- Jonathan Willis: A resurgent Zack Kassian could be an important part of the Oilers’ scoring
- Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse to a massive 8-year contract extension
- Lowetide: How many goals will Jesse Puljujarvi score for the Oilers next season?
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ ideal defence pairings for 2021-22?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers 2021-22 depth chart
- Lowetide: Warren Foegele acquisition possible key to improving the Oilers third line
- DNB: Ethan Bear on being traded, his time with the Oilers
- DNB: Ethan Bear out, Cody Ceci in, Tyson Barrie stays
- DNB: ‘Ultimate competitor’ Zach Hyman signs with Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2021
- DNB: Oilers draft day notebook
PROSPECTS AND YOU
Dom Luszczyszyn has an amazing piece up at The Athletic right now (here) rating confidence level in the 32 NHL teams front office personnel. Dom quotes two sources, NHL fans overall and Oilers fans specifically.
It’s fascinating. I won’t give away the surprise as it pertains to the Oilers, but will say it points out the gap all fans (in any sport) have in evaluating their team’s prospects.
It happens to all of us. In 2010, I was strong on Edmonton’s draft right away and wrote the following:
Overall impressions: A good, good draft. Hall clearly is going to be the story of this draft, but nice value in the second round (Pitlick, Marincin) and later (Davidson) tell us the Oilers set up their draft board well. I also like the Hamilton and Bunz selections, leaving only the Martindale pick as a question mark (they drafted for need) among the team’s most dear selections. Blain, Czerwonka, Pelss and (Kellen) Jones are probably scouts picks, payment for all those nights driving to little towns all over the world in search of the next Taylor Hall. These men are going to be under pressure to deliver more than an average number of NHLers to the show for the next several seasons and it looks like they’ve delivered this season. Report card day is around 2015 summer. See you then.
Four men would play significant NHL games, but only one (Hall) delivered in a prominent role for several seasons. I will say Brandon Davidson was tracking in a good way before multiple injuries, but my estimate of this draft was far too hopeful. Should NHLE have saved me?
- Taylor Hall 19-30-49
- Tyler Pitlick 10-8-18
- Martin Marincin 1-3-4
- Curtis Hamilton 7-8-15
- Ryan Martindale 8-18-26
- Jeremie Blain 1-13-14
- Tyler Bunz .898 (WHL)
- Brandon Davidson 0-17-17
- Drew Czerwonka 2-4-6
- Kristian Pelss 1-2-3
- Kellen Jones 2-7-9
If those numbers had been available (not all were), the players who projected as being real NHL prospects are Hall (a lock), Martindale and Davidson. Pitlick, Hamilton and Blain would have been of interest and Marincin as a shutdown type wouldn’t have been fairly reflected by NHLE.
So it turned out about as expected, as Davidson (the deepest choice who played in the NHL) was identified by the methods I was using (bloodletting, pink flamingoes and a concoction that included NHLE when I could get it).
A total of 107 players drafted that year made the NHL, Edmonton’s total was six. That’s a big total, but the draft needed a second legit NHLer of 500+ games in order to deliver on my prediction.
What about now? Using the draft seasons of the three most recent Oilers picks, can we find a ‘line in the sand’ that is trusted?
FORWARDS SINCE 2019 DRAFT
- Xavier Bourgault 16-16-32
- Tyler Tullio 12-16-28
- Raphael Lavoie 11-16-27
- Matej Blumel 13-13-26
- Carter Savoie 12-11-23
- Jake Chiasson 10-12-22
- Filip Engaras 10-9-19
- Maxim Berezkin 7-9-16
- Dylan Holloway 6-7-13
- Matvey Petrov 6-5-11
- Maxim Denezhkin 6-5-11
- Jeremias Lindewall 2-3-5
- Tomas Mazura 1-2-3
- Shane Lachance 0-1-1
The top forward from this group, Dylan Holloway, doesn’t show well here. What does that tell us? I’m of the opinion that Holloway was both undervalued by NHLE (he closed well in his draft year) and probably overvalued by his draft +1 NHLE (13-29-42). Thoughts?
We also have to do something with the USHL numbers. Rob Vollman never published one, the NHLE Calculator I use has it but with an asterisk. For the coming season, I’m thinking of omitting the USHL from my NHLE conversations. If I know the number isn’t trustworthy, then using it is careless. Same with all of the asterisks. AJHL, Allsvenskan, lots of leagues.
Thoughts? I appreciate your opinion, these leagues are getting started so time’s a wasting.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we have a great two hours planned for you. Tom Gazzola from TSN1260 will talk to us about Oilers rookie and training camps in September, Matthew Scianitti from TSN previews this weekend’s CFL action and Anthony Mingioni from Center Ice Philly will talk F1 and Flyers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!