August and Everything After

August is a time for hockey news to drift, or at least slide, as fans and the industry do something resembling a day of rest from the constant stream of news. The Edmonton Oilers have done some big business in August’s past, but those moments are rare and have not come at all for over a decade:

August 9, 1979: Oilers acquired the rights to Dave Semenko and a draft pick in exchange for selection No. 42 (Neal Broten) and No. 63 (Kevin Maxwell). That would have been a steal for the North Stars, but Edmonton used the pick (No. 48) on Mark Messier.

August 19, 1982: Oilers acquired Ken Linseman and Don Nachbaur from the Hartford Whalers for Risto Siltanen and the rights to Brent Loney.

August 9, 1988: Oilers acquired Cash, Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas, and the draft picks that became Martin Rucinsky, Jason Miller and Nick Stadjuhar for Wayne Gretzky, Mike Krushelnyski and Marty McSorley.

August 4, 1995: Oilers acquired Curtis Joseph and Mike Grier for first-round picks in 1996 and 1997.

August 2, 2005: Oilers acquired Chris Pronger for Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka and Doug Lynch.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Kent Wilson and Lowetide: Why the Flames and Oilers would (and wouldn’t) trade Sam Bennett for Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • New Jonathan Willis: What the Oilers’ 2020 cap situation suggests about Ken Holland’s master plan.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With free agency all but over, Oilers’ Ken Holland has tough work ahead on the trade front
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

THE CERTAIN OILERS, 2019-20

Dave Tippett will no doubt shuffle like a demon and you’ll see all manner of lines and pairs, this depth chart is not meant to represent lines, merely depth chart. I have 10 forwards, five defensemen and two goalies as ‘certain’ Oilers, that’s about 75 percent of the roster in stone. There are two defensive spots open and four forwards to be decided on. That’s a lot of competition in training camp.

UNCERTAIN OILERS 2019

Six names from this list will make the roster, I think Caleb Jones, Joakim Nygard and Colby Cave are the strongest candidates. Biggest wildcards? Joel Persson and Gaetan Haas. I think Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody are the two forwards who can force this issue with a strong training camp and preseason.

In the ‘Long Train Running’ category we have Gambardella, Currie and Russell. Any one of them could reach out and grab a job this season, possibly in training camp. The battle to watch is LHD third pairing, and I do believe Caleb Jones will have first lash, beginning opening night.

DISTANT BELLS 2019

There is one name here (Jesse Puljujarvi) who could make the team, but my bet is JP will be on another team before training camp. More on that in a moment. McLeod, Maksimov, Day and the goalies will be looking to hang around longer than anticipated, this giving them some traction. In some cases, their time will come, but it is unlikely to happen this fall.

AUGUST AND EVERYTHING AFTER

Will we see a deal we’ll remember for decades during August 2019? The possibility exists. Not every memorable trade involves a Gretzky or a Pronger. On the day the Oilers acquired Joseph and Grier, the goalie was part of a cost-cutting movement and the winger hadn’t played in a single NHL game.

Names in play? No idea, but Eeli Tolvanen, Jordan Kyrou, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, Anders Bjork and Sam Bennett are interesting to me as potential targets.

We’re in the final week of July. In my opinion, Josh Archibald’s signing snapped the chain and now we’re waiting for the whip and the trade. Will it happen in August? That’s my guess.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. My first guest will be gentleman Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll chat James Neal trade and the roster as it sits idling in the driveway. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will pop in to chat the coming college football and NFL seasons. Hart from Puckpedia will chat about the Leafs-Vegas trade yesterday and what it may mean, and we’ll talk a little about Jesse Puljujarvi. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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169 Responses to "August and Everything After"

  1. DocFan says:

    I think it’ll be JP, Russell and Prospect / pick for 2RHD, freeing up some space to eventually sign a 3C.

  2. Ben says:

    Ryan McLeod is my dark horse pick to play an NHL game in 19/20.

    No idea what they do with their 17 4th-liners, but suspect that the waiver wire in early Oct will be a bloodbath.

    Stauffer’s telegraphing JP back on the roster, which is probably the best outcome for all involved. Holland needs to find a Derek Ryan to spark the pump+dump.

    Super curious to see where the new Euros land on a scale from Hejda to Belov to Pettrell.

  3. Soup Fascist says:

    DocFan:
    I think it’ll be JP, Russell and Prospect / pick for 2RHD, freeing up some space to eventually sign a 3C.

    A RHD 2 is going to come with a big ticket or baggage. Not sure how you will have money left for a 3C, even if – BIG IF – you manage to turn chicken feathers into chicken soup. Why would someone ship a RH 2nd pair D man for a significantly older 3rd pair defenseman (with 2 years left), an enigmatic 3rd overall (with what appears to be a troublesome agent), who at this point appears unlikely to be an impact NHLer and magic beans?

    Who are we talking Justin Faulk?

  4. DBO says:

    Wonder if Ottawa is a good trade candidate.

    Puljujarvi, Manning and a pick/prospect (solid one like Bear or Lagesson) for Pageau.

    cap works if we add Manning, and you lose two young guys who are cheap and controlled and can play this year for a rebuilding Ottawa.Especially with Pageau a UFA next year and Ottawa having a cheap owner (he is owed $3.1 million).

    Best case would be to convince them to take Russell, who I believe is owed less then his cap, which would fit their moves this summer (see chicago trade)

  5. GMB3 says:

    Joel Eriksson Ek, Kyrou, Tolvanen would all scratch an itch.

  6. Stud Muffin says:

    Is Brian Wiseman the Inside Champion Cooper Marody needs?

  7. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ben:
    Ryan McLeod is my dark horse pick to play an NHL game in 19/20.

    No idea what they do their 17 4th-liners, but suspect that the waiver wire in early Oct will be a bloodbath.

    Stauffer’s telegraphing JP back on the roster, which is probably the best outcome for all involved. Holland needs to find a Derek Ryan to spark the pump+dump.

    Super curious to see where the new Euros land on a scale from Hejda to Belov to Pettrell.

    Didn’t realize that Stauffer is now telegraphing a Jesse return. Interesting.

    I understand that he let slip one of his cryptic clues the other day about a JP trade for an underperforming young prospect from a team with 45 contracts. I can’t recall who here listed the teams but one was Minnesota and I certainly noted Joel Eriksson-Ek as a possible target (as his name has popped up a couple of times already and he has long been coveted by the Oilers scouts).

    One team that was also on the 45 contracts list was the Philadelphia Flyers. Would a JP for Nolan Patrick trade be so outrageous that it is rejected outright? Puljujarvi has 17g, 20a in 139 games while Patrick has 26g, 35a in 145 games. I wouldn’t imagine that the Flyers would want to deal Patrick but if he’s seen as Hextall’s project, then maybe the new regime doesn’t hold him in quite the same esteem.

    Don’t know why but that was what percolated up into the brain parts when I saw Stauffer’s 45 contracts hint and the teams listed.

  8. Stud Muffin says:

    Stelio Mattheos and Jack Drury intrigue me from Carolina in a Puljujarvi deal.

  9. Glovjuice says:

    LT posts exactly at wake up time when in BC on holidays due to time change brain – priceless.

    Oh, and Revelstoke restaurants and cafes are fantastic – what a place to eat out.

    Heading down to camp in Nakusp area today. Need to make a quick camping music mix. First five songs chosen are Loving Cup by the Stones, Mother of Pearl by Roxy Music, I believe (when I fall in love) by Stevie Wonder, Ivan Kupala (New Day) by Kedr Livanskiy, and Black Thumbnail by kings of Leon.

    What a crazy good trade by Holland to unload Lootsheeech (as Spector hilariously pernounces incorrectly it ALL THE FUCKING TIME).

  10. GMB3 says:

    Kyrou is a center, right?

    Tolvanen had solid numbers for a 19 year old in the AHL. If Kyrou could be our 3C, with his speed he could have the potential to be a great controlled zone entry guy for that third line, something that may be missing with our other internal candidates who are fighting for that spot.

    I sincerely hope and pray KY tears the cover off the ball and has a healthy season this year. Frank Vatrano type #’s would put him back in the conversation as a higher end prospect

  11. Ben says:

    Doug McLachlan: JP for Nolan Patrick

    That’s a really interesting idea. Love the idea of backfilling 2-3 line C. I think Patrick has significantly more value today but Philly’s been making some baffling decisions this summer so who knows.

    I’m reading into Stauffer’s repeated comments about Lehto having to backtrack on his “JP won’t be back” stance. But obviously anything is possible.

  12. DBO says:

    I expect any JP return to be an NHLer who has 1 year left on his deal, or a prospect at same level. Looks very much like Holland is freeing up as much money as possible for next year with all his 1 year deals. Gives us a bunch of flexibility to re-sign players or go shopping.

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – At training Camp, they might say: there are spots open” But this is just to sell excitement. The roster is set, barring injuries, and perhaps one of the guys really sh$tting the bed (like when they traded for Griff and Chia knew he was f%uked, so he picked up Russell)

    – If you assume that Pool isn’t coming back (I sadly agree), and there are 6 spots: here is what Holland has projected, based on his moves. Write this down, it’s how his teams operate:

    F’s: (barring injury)

    1) Nygard (Holland’s guy, a lock)
    2) Jurco (Holand’s guy, a lock)
    3) Cave: (the least certain, he’s not Holland’s guy, but a “vet” 4C)
    4) Brodziak (he likes vets, keep others down for a bit, set the tone for future, maybe Haas though)
    5) Archibald (Holland’s guy, a lock)

    D: (barring injury)

    1) Jones (this is the slot that there is the most competition, but Jones is most “advanced”)

    – So it’s Brodziak v Haas v Cave, and one D (but they know which D already, we just don’t know)

    – If Benson is on the roster, that’s because they have decided already

    – And if/when these incumbents fail/don’t execute, then you have Marody/Benson/Kailer getting reps, and you have other D to come up

    – Should they move Pool, that new guy is a lock (or anyone else Holland pries away)

    – Going into training camp: they have specific targets and objectives for each player: they just aren’t telling us (or the players that aren’t making it), what it is.

    * If Pool stays, then its even easier to project.

  14. LadiesloveSmid says:

    DBO,

    Russell is getting $4M this season, $2.5M next season.

  15. DBO says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    So wonder if that’s a draw for Ottawa. Now I expect that Ottawa is likely on his no trade list (I believe he has a 10 team list he can veto a trade to, or he has a 10 team list he will accept a trade to. Not sure sure which one it is).

    One thing on Russell, it seems like the team and Org value his play more then us as fans and the analytics world. Something to be said by the warrior player who clearly sacrifices themselves nightly. Yes he is a bit slow, small, and struggles on some offensive side of the game. But he is also a gamer, and with a young team, it does help to have that guy around.

  16. stush18 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I don’t think Jurco is a lock, he is essentially the Rattie replacement in my eyes

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    We are officially into the unofficial “dog days of summer”.

    Thankfully the knowledgeable Oilers fans of this community provide many interesting topics to discuss such as Nurse’s next contract (and related matters of if he’ll be worth the hit, if it makes sense to trade him, if he’s peaked, etc.), Russell being a legit 2RD/4D and if he’s zooming or anti-zooming his partner, is James Neal a legit option in the top 6, etc.

    Go Oilers!

  18. stush18 says:

    Stud Muffin:
    Is Brian Wiseman the Inside Champion Cooper Marody needs?

    This is a very good and underrated point, combined with Kingers points about Hollands “guys”, I think we have an idea of who should start on the roster out of the uncertain guys.

  19. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stush18:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I don’t think Jurco is a lock, he is essentially the Rattie replacement in my eyes

    – I’m not talking a lock for the season (for any of this), just open day roster, barring injury.

  20. LadiesloveSmid says:

    DBO,

    After buying out Sekera, I don’t know that Edmonton has enough NHL D to allow trading Russell now.

    Maybe if they bring in Lovejoy or Holland’s guy Kronwall

  21. Waiting for a cup says:

    I don’t get the trade Jesse Puljujarvi talk. I know his agent has said that is what he wants but frankly who cares?

    The reality is that Jesse does not have a lot of options. I do not believe that he will go back to play in Europe unless there is a serious issue we don’t know about. He will make less $$$ next year in Europe than he will in Edmonton. In addition, going to Europe is a risk for future NHL work. If he does not dominate he is not coming back to a big payday.

    The opportunity in Edmonton is better than almost any other NHL city. There is a new GM/Coach. I am sure they have already told him he has a clean slate. There are quality centers to play with.

    From where I type; he signs a 1 year contract ( I hope Ken can get 2 years) at a small raise.

  22. stush18 says:

    Ive had some ideas I wanted to discuss on Twitter the last few days, but they are too long to post, and I find myself here. please forgive the length and frequency.

    First, a thought Ive been having on Jesse P. for quite a few years. Why the hell did they never move him over to Center?

    To me, its fairly obvious hes a great defensive FWD. First one back, plays more of an east/west style, often gets sucked down into the corners away from his dman, cuts across ice towards the puck, and one of the best zone entry players on the oilers.

    I don’t know if its a possibility anymore, but I would have him penciled in as the 3c moving forward. It kills several birds with one big obvious stone, imo.

  23. stush18 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Yes, I disagree.

    I think it was more of a favour to even offer him a contract. I think theres a possibility he makes the team as a spare, but I think hell be sent down early so another team doesn’t claim him, providing a known quantity for Holand later in the year if there are injuries.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    I believe your list of certain Oilers is right.

    I would like to shave the following off the “uncertain Oilers” and throw them into a “lets be risk adverse and give these guys the benefit of development time”:

    Bouchard, Samorukov, Yamamoto

    Yamamoto – lets not forget this is his second year of pro. He’s a 22nd overall pick and not a top 10 pick – AHL development time should be expected for a 22nd overall pick and, frankly, he hasn’t received it yet. It was a mistake giving him NHL time in each of the last two years. I think its given much of the fan-base unreasonable expectations on his development timeline. Kailer didn’t really get the AHL development time he needed last year because not long after he gained traction the injuries kicked in. When he did start to gain traction, he drove the offence, even when playing with the likes of Tyler Vesel. He showed to be a plus/elite AHL level player but, frankly, didn’t get much time at that level. Lets give this young prospect the privellage of a solid 30-40 games of AHL time before he becomes an NHL option. Lets not call him up after he’s produced 11 points in 9 games but let him play and develop.

    Bouchard – this prospect is so important to the nedium and long term future of the club, that the club needs to be risk adverse. There is little doubt that he has certain NHL ready skills and NHL ready skills the team could use including puck transition and offensive zone play (both at evens and the PP). With that said, the jump from the CHL to the NHL is huge, in particular for young d-men. He did very well in the AHL last year but it was far from a regular shift. Until the last couple of games, he rarely got a 5 on 5 shift and was highly sheltered. Lets give this kid, like Yamamoto, 40 games before his name is an option. The organization has 3-4 NHL-ready, or close thereto, d-men that have been developing in pro the last few years – Jones, Lagesson, Persson, Bear. Sure, Bouchard is the sexier name and he very well may have NHL skills over some of these guys but we need to be risk adverse and just make sure. We don’t want to yo-yo Bouchard. We finally have the ability to be risk-adverse due to depth options. Lets use it.

    Sammy – Just love this guy but, similar to Bouchard, that is a large leap from the CHL to NHL and Sammy is even more raw than Bouch. I think the reasonable expectation for Sammy is to start at 3LD in the AHL (likey with Day) and work his way up to the top 4 with special teams play.

  25. Coiler says:

    How about Chicago as a destination for JP? They seem to be the king of reclamation projects lately.

    Or perhaps Detroit as Holland should know the younger talent that exists there.

    ______

    I have to say this transaction Toronto made with Vegas last night has me a little bothered. I know they haven’t broken the rules but this is clearly MLSE flexing some financial might. Horton, Clarkson, Hyman and Dermott are all likely going to be dumped onto the LTIR which I guess will be enough for them to sign Marner. With these contracts being swapped around the league like a town bike, it makes me wonder if we’ll ever have a day where the following occurs;

    1) When a player suffers a career ending injury, the CBA has a provision that the player has to be bought out with the cap hit being dispersed over the course of several years. Said player has to retire from the league. None of this swapping of contracts.

    2) Teams will have the ability to trade part of their salary cap for picks. Have incremental amounts equal a set draft pick much like the offer sheet but costlier. For example, 1 million could equal a 3rd rounder or 5 million could equal a first. That transaction would have to be for that season only and the team giving up the pick would have to have one in that year.

    3) A Wayne Gretzky/Larry Bird rule; I can’t say I understand this provision in the NBA’s CBA fully but allow one player from each team to be ‘designated’ so their full cap hit doesn’t apply to the cap. Say only 25% does.

    4) Luxury tax; If teams like the Leafs, et al want to go over the cap, let them. Penalize them however with a punishing tax and draft picks. The tax could be built to hurt the team in the years following the cap hit. For example, the Leafs go 10 million over the cap in 19-20, in year 20-21 they would be hit with a 3 million hit on their cap. Instead of working at 83 million, they would be working at 80 million. And it would continue until the balance of 10 million was essentially made up for. Let’s say 3.5 years. So let’s assume they wanted to go balls deep one year and picked up a game changing player during the season for their playoff run, they would be paying for it for years afterwards.

    I know I’m dreaming in technicolour with these suggestions but I think it could mitigate this horseshit that occurred last night with this “trade”.

    Curious to know what people’s thoughts are on this?

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really hope that Currie, Malone and P. Russell are distant Bells.

    I don’t see Currie as any more than a tweener and Malone is what he he is – a veteran career AHLer that has never had an impact at the NHL level.

    P. Russell could be a serviceable 12th/13th guy but the hope is that Joe G. (the higher potential prospect in my opinion) wins the day over P. Russell and that guys like Nygard and Hass win the day over guys like Malone and Russell.

  27. HT Joe says:

    To follow-up on yesterday’s fun discussions, is Nurse a $7M player?

    Lots of verbal back and forth, and my takeaway is that most of us like the player, but an annual cap hit of $7M is too rich, and may necessitate a trade.

    I know Chia was the king of “death by a thousand papercuts”, but what’s the line in the sand for Nurse. Can we agree that $6M is reasonable for Nurse right now? And if so, assuming it’s a long term deal, how is the extra $1M going to kill the team? It sort of seems like $6M Nurse is okay but $7M Nurse breaks the team.

    OP: I have not forgotten your big picture view (something I am intrinsically poor at, and appreciate explanations of the sort). If I have some time over the next day or so, I’m going to try to get a better sense of if $19 Million is reasonable for the bottom 6 forwards, bottom 2 blueliners, backup goalie, and extra 3 players (so an extra 4th line C, extra 4th line winger, extra bottom pairing blueliner).

    Everyone: I floated this before, but with Nurse’s athleticism, aggression, positive skating, offensive instincts, occasional defensive lapse… would he potentially be a fit for winger with McDavid, freeing up Drai to drive line 2 and RNH driving line 3? Crazy, right?

    Nurse – McDavid – Kassian
    Neal – Drai – Chiasson
    xxx – RNH – xxx

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Russel – Benning
    ?

    Swap Neal and Nurse as-needed.

  28. stush18 says:

    Next thought Ive been debating in my head for a while,

    What are we going to do with our defense?

    Im not talking about the younger guys on the backend (Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard, Persson, and to a lesser extent, Jones). Im talking about our top 4.

    I think the most prudent course of action is to play

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Jones-Benning

    as our primary pairings, ignoring injuries and Perrson or others for right now.

    We need to know what Nurse is worth on his next contract, and Trouba and Matheson have raised the bar. So I run Nurse-Larsson with the tough minutes to start the year, and give Jones-Benning the easiest offensive obviously.

    Klefbom and Russell actually have fairly positive results together, and it makes sense. Klefbom is our best puck mover, and Russell allows him the freedom to jump in the play a bit more. Nurse and Larsson struggled last year, but I think it was more due to Larsons back injury.

    If Nurse cant handle those minutes, and is looking for Trouba money, hes an easy piece to move ALA Hamilton.

  29. London Jon says:

    Caleb Jones was #6 in the whole league last year for denying zone entries. Based on 50 attempts +

    Relatively sample size, etc, but he did that playing a lot of top pair minutes.

  30. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Ya I completely agree. I think unless youre a certain top 5 pick, you need to take the necessary stepping stones (Junior/Minor Pro/Pro).

    If were being honest, this team is a fringe playoff team that’s going to need to ride goaltending and 27/97/93 into the playoffs.

    This year is about finding out what we know about who we know. No need to rush these younger guys when they wont make any material difference.

  31. Woogie63 says:

    Hey Jesse here are the winning numbers for this week’s $50M, 6-49 Jackpot

    Are you ready the numbers are…

    97-29-93

    You can’t win unless you buy a ticket.

  32. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    That was me who mentioned the 45 players/roster comment.

    I’d take JP for Nolan, but doubt even Fletcher makes that trade.

    Personally I home JP comes back on a one year show me deal with a chip on his shoulder, and unlocks that intriguing potential of his.

    *** EDIT:

    Was it you who was posting results from 7-game sets last year? If so, can you do that again this season? I really enjoyed that.

  33. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    3) Cave: (the least certain, he’s not Holland’s guy, but a “vet” 4C)

    In what world is a guy who’s played 56 games — across multiple seasons, mind you — considered a “vet?”

  34. Soup Fascist says:

    GMB3:
    Kyrou is a center, right?

    Tolvanen had solid numbers for a 19 year old in the AHL. If Kyrou could be our 3C, with his speed he could have the potential to be a great controlled zone entry guy for that third line, something that may be missing with our other internal candidates who are fighting for that spot.

    I sincerely hope and pray KY tears the cover off the ball and has a healthy season this year. Frank Vatrano type #’s would put him back in the conversation as a higher end prospect

    Whenever I hear Kyrou, all I hear is Caillou, that whiny little cartoon puke that my kids used to watch. Sadly, I don’t think I could ever cheer for the kid for that reason.

  35. Louis Levasseur says:

    I’m a Russell fan. I just like how he plays the game. I’m not anti-analytics at all. I can’t say that I really delve into the numbers, but I respect the fact that they have value as an additional tool in the toolbox for evaluating players.

    One thing I think would be helpful is if they let Russell play on the left side. Some of the perceived issues people have with him, such as puck moving, might be alleviated if he isn’t always playing on his off-side.

  36. London Jon says:

    Benson-Marody-Jesse

    Is a fun line to start the season with.

    Lots of Chem and Confidence from B-M that Jesse can feed off.

    Jesse has the wheels to make up for the average skating of Marody.

    A young line with lots to prove that can feed off each other and be a ’team’ and Jesse gets to hang with people he has no baggage with.

    Obvs this wouldn’t have worked with TMac and his MegaBlender.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    In what world is a guy who’s played 56 games — across multiple seasons, mind you — considered a “vet?”

    One where he’s passed Animal Med school.

  38. Reja says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    In what world is a guy who’s played 56 games — across multiple seasons, mind you — considered a “vet?”

    Cave was Pete’s boy no way he’s on the big club unless a rash of injuries happen.

  39. stush18 says:

    Finally, the final big thought running around my head right now (there are lots of little ones and sorry for the length),

    How much of a human cheat code is Mcdavid, and are we exploiting that to its fullest extent?

    97 does everything extremely well. Zone entry, CF, GF, WOWY, whatever you want. He elevates others, and I think the Oilers should consider running multiple lineups this year because of it.

    This has some assumptions that are never going to happen, but bare with me. I’m placing my coaching hat on at this point, because I don’t think the NHL is doing much different coaching-wise these days.

    HOME GAMES
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian
    Neal-Mcdavid-Gagner
    Nygaard-JP-Archibald
    Granlund-Juhjar-Chiasson

    You airdrop Mcdavids line into the offensive zone, allow him to be the zone-entry monster, and let Gagner and Neal do their best work in the offensive zone. Gagner can take RH faceoffs. This places two of your weakest defensive/most offensive players in the easiest offensive minutes with the best player in the world.

    Nuges line takes on the tough matchups, with line 4 taking on secondary dzone draws. Line 3 gets cherry minutes.

    AWAY GAMES
    Granlund-Mcdavid-Chiasson
    Nygaard-Draisaitl-Kassian
    Neal-Nuge-JP
    Cave-Juhjar-Archibald

    On the road, we don’t have enough depth to tie up 2 of our 3 top 6 FWDs on one line. Mcdavid is going to be hard matched against teams best, so I drop his line in the defensive zone every chance I get. This might sound backwards, but what its doing is freeing up lines 2-4 for more offensive zone starts, against easier lines. Mcdavids shown he can carry lines to 50% against the best. Why bother giving him offensive minutes when he’s going to make tough defensive minutes successful? Granlund is a decent defensive forward, and could handle those minutes. You could move Chaisson, because I know his numbers with Mcdavid aren’t actually that great, but I think he could be the best bend-don’t-break candidate on the right side.

    Whenever you get zone advantages (icings, other teams top pairing just left), you move 93, 29, 97 onto a line and double shift them.

  40. Pouzar says:

    Stud Muffin:
    Is Brian Wiseman the Inside Champion Cooper Marody needs?

    Good call…er…question

  41. stush18 says:

    The lineup obviously makes a lot of assumptions, and were early into the summer and things change, but this is the bones of what I have been debating.

    Is it better to tie up Mcdavid and Draisaitl (or Nuge) on one line for away games, where teams can hard match them and limit their success, while the other 3 lines struggle to get to 50% in possession and goals?

    Why not bury Mcdavid with some responsible defensive players in the dzone when your playing away? He is going to carry that line to 50% almost every night, and tie up the other teams best pairings and FWDs. Nuge and Drai can carry their lines to 50% in easier minutes.

    For home games, Neal and Gagner are players that give away a lot defensively, but provide actual top 6 offense. Why not run them with Mcdavid in easy minutes, and let them terrorize teams in the offensive end.

    It would probably be high-event hockey at home, if youre playing high event hockey, wouldn’t you place your money on the best hockeyplayer in the world?

  42. leadfarmer says:

    London Jon,

    Brodie was even higher so I don’t know how much value the stat has.
    Ekblad is crazy off the chart

  43. London Jon says:

    stush18:
    Finally, the final big thought running around my head right now (there are lots of little ones and sorry for the length),

    How much of a human cheat code is Mcdavid, and are we exploiting that to its fullest extent?

    97 does everything extremely well. Zone entry, CF, GF, WOWY, whatever you want. He elevates others, and I think the Oilers should consider running multiple lineups this year because of it.

    This has some assumptions that are never going to happen, but bare with me. I’m placing my coaching hat on at this point, because I don’t think the NHL is doing much different coaching-wise these days.

    HOME GAMES
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian
    Neal-Mcdavid-Gagner
    Nygaard-JP-Archibald
    Granlund-Juhjar-Chiasson

    You airdrop Mcdavids line into the offensive zone, allow him to be the zone-entry monster, and let Gagner and Neal do their best work in the offensive zone. Gagner can take RH faceoffs. This places two of your weakest defensive/most offensive players in the easiest offensive minutes with the best player in the world.

    Nuges line takes on the tough matchups, with line 4 taking on secondary dzone draws. Line 3 gets cherry minutes.

    AWAY GAMES
    Granlund-Mcdavid-Chiasson
    Nygaard-Draisaitl-Kassian
    Neal-Nuge-JP
    Cave-Juhjar-Archibald

    On the road, we don’t have enough depth to tie up 2 of our 3 top 6 FWDs on one line. Mcdavid is going to be hard matched against teams best, so I drop his line in the defensive zone every chance I get. This might sound backwards, but what its doing is freeing up lines 2-4 for more offensive zone starts, against easier lines. Mcdavids shown he can carry lines to 50% against the best. Why bother giving him offensive minutes when he’s going to make tough defensive minutes successful? Granlund is a decent defensive forward, and could handle those minutes. You could move Chaisson, because I know his numbers with Mcdavid aren’t actually that great, but I think he could be the best bend-don’t-break candidate on the right side.

    Whenever you get zone advantages (icings, other teams top pairing just left), you move 93, 29, 97 onto a line and double shift them.

    I like it and I’ve thought a lot along the same lines, pardon the pun.

    Two of my other frequent thoughts are:

    1) points and goals for a line aren’t that important. Outscoring is. I thought this a lot when Strome couldn’t score but was doing all the right things. What if Lucic-Strome-Reider could play 15 minutes a night against the other teams top 2 lines or middle 2 lines) and saw off or get close to it?

    Who cares if they score 10 goals all year. If they also only gave up 15 goals all year as a shutdown line against the top lines then that’s a win. Pair them up with Russell-Larsson as well.

    2) is anyone thinking about another model than 1C+2W+2D? Football (soccer to you) has evolved around formations a number of times. For example, the holding MF in front of the central defenders is now a given as they shut down that ultra dangerous space where chances are created from.

    I have no idea what another system is but every team plays the same formation and has played the same formation for decades.

    Maybe in own zone you put your rickibox defender in front of the net and then you have two workers playing the corners and boards. Your other two players close the lanes to the dangerous areas.

    Something fun to debate?!?!

  44. Jordan says:

    stush18,

    I really like the premise a lot. Concentrating scoring when you can react to the other team’s deployment is a great plan. distributing scoring throughout the lineup when the other team can response to your deployment also makes sense. Basics of the Art of War.

    However, your specific player deployments do not optimize the use of the players. Chiasson was not good with McD last year, and should be with Drai, as they had stronger chem. Kassian should go shotgun with McD as he has wheels to keep up and toughness to create space and respond to any on-ice chicanery. Gagner should only not be played in the top 6 ever – bottom 6 and PP specialist. JP has never played center in the NHL – if we want him to have a chance here, we need to give him a job he can succeed at. Would rather have Haas in that position given the choice.

    I’d go with
    Home:

    Draisaitl-Nuge-Chiasson
    Neal-Mcdavid-Kassian
    Nygaard-Haas-Archibald
    Granlund-Juhjar-Gagner

    Away:

    Granlund-Mcdavid-Kassian
    Nygaard-Draisaitl-Chiasson
    Neal-Nuge-Archibald
    Juhjar-Haas-Jurco

  45. London Jon says:

    leadfarmer:
    London Jon,

    Brodie was even higher so I don’t know how much value the stat has.
    Ekblad is crazy off the chart

    Ekblad was ridiculous. From bottom up it was like 50, 49, 48, 47, 46, 35, 28

    That’s a crazy enough gap that I’d want someone looking at exactly what he’s doing and why that number is such an outlier

  46. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer:
    London Jon,

    Brodie was even higher so I don’t know how much value the stat has.
    Ekblad is crazy off the chart

    I’d also posit that Jones denies so many because he is so aggressive at the blue line, and we saw him get walked several times for GA. I think learning the opposition and at what time is the right time to step up on a player at the blue line is part of the learning curve for D. Easier to be effective doing it against some achmuck from the Colorado Eagles than say Timo Meier burning down the wing.

    Obviously you want to limit entries with possession as best you can, but there’s a time and place where the safer play is to concede the blue line

  47. Glovjuice says:

    GMB3: I’d also posit that Jones denies so many because he is so aggressive at the blue line, and we saw him get walked several times for GA. I think learning the opposition and at what time is the right time to step up on a player at the blue line is part of the learning curve for D. Easier to be effective doing it against some achmuck from the Colorado Eagles than say Timo Meier burning down the wing.

    Obviously you want to limit entries with possession as best you can, but there’s a time and place where the safer play is to concede the blue line

    Posit. LOL. OP is rubbing off.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    stush18
    Two challenges i see here. At home, there are no “easy” minutes playing with McDavid. He’s going to draw the opposition’s best so Neal AND Gagner would present some challenges in terms of strong two way play leading to outscoring. Imagine Colorado’s top line against that line for instance. Feast. Don’t underrate how much Leon’s emerging 200ft game is helping Connor.

    On the road, Connor is not strong on the dot yet. So starting his line aggresively with D zone starts and no Leon to take faceoffs means you’re chasing the play off the draw more often than not.

    I do like the idea of setting lines and tactics to maximize Connor’s zone entry abilities though! It’s the right approach just the wrong linemates imo.

  49. Darth Tu says:

    Glovjuice:
    LT posts exactly at wake up time when in BC on holidays due to time change brain – priceless.

    Oh, and Revelstoke restaurants and cafes are fantastic – what a place to eat out.

    Heading down to camp in Nakusp area today. Need to make a quick camping music mix. First five songs chosen are Loving Cup by the Stones, Mother of Pearl by Roxy Music, I believe (when I fall in love) by Stevie Wonder, Ivan Kupala (New Day) by Kedr Livanskiy, and Black Thumbnail by kings of Leon.

    What a crazy good trade by Holland to unload Lootsheeech (as Spector hilariously pernounces incorrectly it ALL THE FUCKING TIME).

    I’ve had a cassette version of Stranded in my car for the last few days. Song For Europe is absolutely stupendous. I love me some Roxy Music, (spoiler alert), so much so the band and I will be playing a cover of Love Is The Drug at Sasquatch Gathering this weekend.

    Enjoy your camping!

  50. PennersPancakes says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Id be concerned over the constant line switching. Theres been comments here and there about players liking consistency and this means theyre guaranteed to swap lines and even positions day to day. This strategy is clearly progressive thinking but id be cautious unless its a clear win.

  51. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Jordan,

    I understand what you are saying in regards to Gagner. He should be in the lower end of a lineup, but the oilers need to find a way to maximize players around Mcdavid.

    Fact is, Gagner ran positive CF%, GF%, and relstats in his time in EDM with more offensive zone starts, while scoring 10 Pts in 25 GMs (33 pts/82). He was also over 50% in faceoffs.

    Are we really sure giving him and Neal the easiest offensive minutes and zone starts at home aren’t the best idea? Mcdavid isn’t drawing the tough matchups at home, not off the faceoff.

  52. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    In this example, Mcdavid is not going to be playing minutes against Mckinnons line.

    Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian are. And they can handle those minutes. Mcdavid is heading out against lines 2-4 and any offensive zone starts they can.

    If Col wants to bury Mckinnon in the defensive end, thats fine. But most teams are not going to run their best offensive players in the defensive end. its counter intuitive. They would rather run a Mckinnons line in the offensive end when they could, running away from matchups.

  53. Darth Tu says:

    HT Joe:
    To follow-up on yesterday’s fun discussions, is Nurse a $7M player?

    Lots of verbal back and forth, and my takeaway is that most of us like the player, but an annual cap hit of $7M is too rich, and may necessitate a trade.

    I know Chia was the king of “death by a thousand papercuts”, but what’s the line in the sand for Nurse.Can we agree that $6M is reasonable for Nurse right now?And if so, assuming it’s a long term deal, how is the extra $1M going to kill the team?It sort of seems like $6M Nurse is okay but $7M Nurse breaks the team.

    OP:I have not forgotten your big picture view (something I am intrinsically poor at, and appreciate explanations of the sort).If I have some time over the next day or so, I’m going to try to get a better sense of if $19 Million is reasonable for the bottom 6 forwards, bottom 2 blueliners, backup goalie, and extra 3 players (so an extra 4th line C, extra 4th line winger, extra bottom pairing blueliner).

    Everyone:I floated this before, but with Nurse’s athleticism, aggression, positive skating, offensive instincts, occasional defensive lapse… would he potentially be a fit for winger with McDavid, freeing up Drai to drive line 2 and RNH driving line 3?Crazy, right?

    Nurse – McDavid – Kassian
    Neal – Drai – Chiasson
    xxx – RNH – xxx

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Russel – Benning
    ?

    Swap Neal and Nurse as-needed.

    I’ve just had a nightmare flashback to the great office draft argument of 2013-14. We give 2 points per goal for D in our league, Brent Burns was in that weirdo stage of being tried out as a forward so there was a heated chat about whether or not to count him at F or D. Then halfway through the season it was apparent he was purely playing D. An even bigger argument ensued as the person that had drafted him wanted his goal totals doubled – which would have gifted him the league.

  54. Glovjuice says:

    Darth Tu: I’ve had a cassette version of Stranded in my car for the last few days.Song For Europe is absolutely stupendous. I love me some Roxy Music, (spoiler alert), so much so the band and I will be playing a cover of Love Is The Drug at Sasquatch Gathering this weekend.

    Enjoy your camping!

    Bam, agreed on all fronts – Roxy is soooo Roxy. Wow, playing Sasquatch…cool. Cheers!

  55. stush18 says:

    London Jon: I like it and I’ve thought a lot along the same lines, pardon the pun.

    Two of my other frequent thoughts are:

    1) points and goals for a line aren’t that important. Outscoring is. I thought this a lot when Strome couldn’t score but was doing all the right things. What if Lucic-Strome-Reider could play 15 minutes a night against the other teams top 2 lines or middle 2 lines) and saw off or get close to it?

    Who cares if they score 10 goals all year. If they also only gave up 15 goals all year as a shutdown line against the top lines then that’s a win. Pair them up with Russell-Larsson as well.

    2) is anyone thinking about another model than 1C+2W+2D? Football (soccer to you) has evolved around formations a number of times. For example, the holding MF in front of the central defenders is now a given as they shut down that ultra dangerous space where chances are created from.

    I have no idea what another system is but every team plays the same formation and has played the same formation for decades.

    Maybe in own zone you put your rickibox defender in front of the net and then you have two workers playing the corners and boards. Your other two players close the lanes to the dangerous areas.

    Something fun to debate?!?!

    I still play hockey, so I haven’t gotten into coaching yet. but I want too.

    But my grandpa told me years ago that hockey is just a series of 2-1’s all over the ice. You need to exploit those 2-1’s. To him, this meant supporting the puck.

    To me, skill players create 2-1’s anywhere. I noticed it first with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and the Sedins. They whip the puck around the zone, end to end, saucer passes, moving from within 5 feet of each other to opposite corners to high zone.

    The point was to get lost in coverage. Once a player loses positioning, it opens up lane to the net. The next defender has a choice to make, take away pass or shot. We all know this.

    But it comes back around to our lineup discussion.

    Who are the best offensive players on the team? in order?
    97,29,93, and then Neal and Gagner probably.

    So why run 29 and 97 together other than the odd shift. Youre not going to run your 1, 2, and 3 together. That’s what PPs are for, or teams with insane depth.

    In EDMs case, their 1 is so far ahead, I think you can afford to run him with Gagner and Neal. Exploit their offensive instincts, and keep them as far away from their own ends

  56. Side says:

    Glovjuice: Posit. LOL. OP is rubbing off.

    Phrasing.

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    Louis Levasseur:
    I’m a Russell fan.I just like how he plays the game.I’m not anti-analytics at all.I can’t say that I really delve into the numbers, but I respect the fact that they have value as an additional tool in the toolbox for evaluating players.

    One thing I think would be helpful is if they let Russell play on the left side.Some of the perceived issues people have with him, such as puck moving, might be alleviated if he isn’t always playing on his off-side.

    Starfish. The Russell reset. Off the glass and out.

    These are 3 ‘saw him bad’ issues I equate with KR. None of them analytics driven.

    I don’t think it’s an analytics bias alone that has many soured on this player. Nurse is chaos enough. He doesn’t need more from his partner.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    stush18:
    Bag of Pucks,

    In this example, Mcdavid is not going to be playing minutes against Mckinnons line.

    Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian are. And they can handle those minutes. Mcdavid is heading out against lines 2-4 and any offensive zone starts they can.

    If Col wants to bury Mckinnon in the defensive end, thats fine. But most teams are not going to run their best offensive players in the defensive end. its counter intuitive. They would rather run a Mckinnons line in the offensive end when they could, running away from matchups.

    You can’t guarantee the opposition won’t change on the fly. Last change at home gives you an edge. It doesn’t give you God power. Connor’s line will still end up against the toughs on many shifts.

  59. stush18 says:

    Jordan:
    stush18,

    I really like the premise a lot.Concentrating scoring when you can react to the other team’s deployment is a great plan.distributing scoring throughout the lineup when the other team can response to your deployment also makes sense.Basics of the Art of War.

    However, your specific player deployments do not optimize the use of the players.Chiasson was not good with McD last year, and should be with Drai, as they had stronger chem.Kassian should go shotgun with McD as he has wheels to keep up and toughness to create space and respond to any on-ice chicanery.Gagner should only not be played in the top 6 ever – bottom 6 and PP specialist.JP has never played center in the NHL – if we want him to have a chance here, we need to give him a job he can succeed at.Would rather have Haas in that position given the choice.

    I’d go with
    Home:

    Draisaitl-Nuge-Chiasson
    Neal-Mcdavid-Kassian
    Nygaard-Haas-Archibald
    Granlund-Juhjar-Gagner

    Away:

    Granlund-Mcdavid-Kassian
    Nygaard-Draisaitl-Chiasson
    Neal-Nuge-Archibald
    Juhjar-Haas-Jurco

    I think we disagree on the lines a little bit, but in basic principle. and id be willing to listen to most lineups under this pretence, as long as we could show the data for it. I have rough iddeas of numbers, just nothing exact.

    I understand Chiasson is a drag on Mcdavid, so I don’t mind swapping him while on the road.

    But the problem with playing Gagner on the 4th linr is youre limiting the 4th line as a checking line. That line cant really check well, and they cant score well enough either.

    I think at home, where you control matchups to a greater extent, you place Gagner and Neal in the offensive end, because they are the greatest examples of giving up defense to get offense. Their heatmaps are red at both ends.

    At home you can control how often they are in the defensive end, and exaggerate their offensive prowess for scoring.

  60. Bag of Pucks says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Id be concerned over the constant line switching. Theres been comments here and there about players liking consistency and this means theyre guaranteed to swap lines and even positions day to day. This strategy is clearly progressive thinking but id be cautious unless its a clear win.

    Yeah, i certainly don’t advocate different line combos for home and away.

    That smells of overcoaching.

  61. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks: You can’t guarantee the opposition won’t change on the fly. Last change at home gves you an edge. It doesn’t give you God power. Connor’s line will still end up against the toughs on many shifts.

    So the other team changes on the fly? You’ve got control of the puck, Mcdavid on the ice, and two players who control the offensive ends of the ice.

    Playing offense really isn’t that hard. Its why so many tweeners look good.

    And if you lose the draw (50/50) that line is being told to dump it and change so the tough matchup (line 1 and 1st pairing) can comeout.

    Which means Mcdavid gets to enter the zone with possession? with two of our top 6 offensive but bottom 6 defensive players aren’t playing in their end.

  62. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yeah, i certainly don’t advocate different line combos for home and away.

    That smells of overcoaching.

    I understand its different levels, but when I was in midget our coach had different lineup.

    Each line also had a specific forecheck. That way the opposite team couldn’t change there breakouts to escape our forechecks, because it was different every time.

    If we managed it, im sure the worlds best could.

    You just need a coach that’s going to stick with it for 40 away games and 40 home games.

  63. Melvis says:

    Five days on and I’m just getting hip to the fact the stone in my shoe fell out. I didn’t give a shit if Neal Patrick Harris was coming back. Now if only they’d get rid of that creepy Trivago guy.

    I’m down with Remain in Light. True to Life from Avalon.

    Here’s a nice thing from Andrew Bird I was listening to ths am. “Truth Lies Low” from the Greatesr Hits album. Nice groove and sweet, sweet fiddle.

    Link doesn’t take for me.

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    In what world is a guy who’s played 56 games — across multiple seasons, mind you — considered a “vet?”

    Before last season he had 3 full AHL seasons & 3 NHL *games*. That equates to about one espresso.

    Last year his waiver eligibility ran out, he cleared once, got recalled, then didn’t clear the second time. And just like that he was in the NHL to stay… until at least the end of the season.

    As a four-year pro Cave is a vet, but not really an NHL vet. To me a player crosses that threshold when he plays a full season in the bigs. Cave was still at the tweener stage last year.

    That said there are a couple of things in his favour.

    1) his cap hit of $675,000 is actually BELOW the league minimum, given he signed a two-year bridge at two different minima ($650, then $700). Not sure it’s possible to have a lower cap hit than Colby Cave in 2019-20. Meaning if he beats out a veteran like, say, Brodziak for a job, that’s a $400,000 cap savings.

    2) Cave’s underlying numbers from last year are eye-popping. Of the 14 Oilers forwards with 300+ minutes:

    CF% 52.03% — 1st
    FF% 53.23% — 1st
    SF% 54.13% — 1st
    SCF% 52.12% — 1st
    HDCF% 62.16% (!) — 1st
    **DFF% 57.4% — 1st
    xGF% 56.03% — 1st
    GF% 37.50% — 11th

    ( **PuckIQ stat, all others from Natural Stat Trick )

    These are listed in increasing importance (with Danger Fenwick interpolated) & rarity. Talk about doing everything right and getting the wrong result.

    Bear in mind that Cave’s time in EDM came in the Hitchcock part of the season where Oilers shot metrics were relatively poor vs. the TMc segment, so it stands to reason that he crushed it even more on the Relatives (Sam Gagner shows well here also). His DFF% of 57.4% was 5% clear of the second guy on the list (Gagner, 52.2%).

    Huge caveat is QualComp, where the terrific PuckIQ shows Cave playing the most sheltered minutes with just 18% vs. Elites, with Gagner next at just over 20%. But it’s not like Cave was lining up with Connor & Leon on his side of the ice either.

    Finally Cave led the team in FOW% at 52.5%, including 53.6% in the d-zone & 64.7% on the PK (just 17 draws, he was a depth PKer as a rookie). He had the third lowest OZS% on the team.


    Chia’s guy or not, he showed a fair bit as a mature rookie in a depth role, & given that cap hit I think he’s an easy choice to be on the roster if not actually in the opening night line-up. Some scoring touch would be nice, but I don’t suppose That guy would be on the waiver wire.

    Bonus trivia: Colby Cave was the last player acquired by Peter Chiarelli in both Boston & Edmonton.

  65. Ribs says:

    Well, wouldya look at that. Aberg and Gravel signed with Toronto.

    https://www.tsn.ca/toronto-maple-leafs-announce-seven-free-agent-signings-1.1341521

  66. defmn says:

    Lowetide –

    I have a question concerning Neal.

    I keep reading how he strongly prefers to play right wing but I have seen you place him on left wing in several of your charts.

    Is this because he shoots left, you think the coach will place him there because of weakness on that side or is there another reason?

    I ask because coming off of a disappointing season in Calgary I would think it would be prudent to rebuild his confidence. To me that means allowing him to play on his preferred side at least until he proves ineffective there or gets to the point where he doesn’t care anymore.

    Thanks.

  67. stush18 says:

    I understand there is many nights this isn’t perfectly fluid.

    But it comes down to maximizing your lineups, and the pieces that make up those lineups.

    Mcdavid has shown the ability to drag players above 50% in basically everything. So when you have a matchup advantage (at home), why not take advantage of it? It also takes pressure off of lines 2-4, because it limits the amount of time two of your worst defensive players (Neal and Gagner) spend in their own ends. Instead, they get to play easy minutes with the best player in the world, and do what they do best, play with the puck.

    On the road, youre going to have Mcdavid hard matched on almost every single shift. So why tie up players with him? just limit the damage the other teams can do, and roll the dice he can break the game open on his own every once in a while, while optimizing lines 2-4 again.

    The Edmonton Oilers do not have enough FWD depth. If they did, Gagner would be in the AHL, Neal would be bought out, and we wouldn’t be debating if Benson is ready for top 6 minutes (he isn’t).

    Therefore, EDM needs to maximize the strengths of their players, while minimizing their weaknesses. This is the best way to do that.

  68. stush18 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Nice post Bruce.

    Colby had an awful time scoring, but when he was in BOS he managed a decent (4th line) pace.

    I wonder what those statlines would look like if he started taking more defensive responsibility.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    stush18: So the other team changes on the fly? You’ve got control of the puck, Mcdavid on the ice, and two players who control the offensive ends of the ice.

    Playing offense really isn’t that hard. Its why so many tweeners look good.

    And if you lose the draw (50/50) that line is being told to dump it and change so the tough matchup (line 1 and 1st pairing) can comeout.

    Which means Mcdavid gets to enter the zone with possession? with two of our top 6 offensive but bottom 6 defensive players aren’t playing in their end.

    So in your model, Neal and Gagner can dominate the likes of a backchecking Rantanen or Landeskog provided they have the puck to start?

    I don’t think playing ‘keep away’ is nearly as simple as you’re portraying it. Jmo.

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    stush18: I understand its different levels, but when I was in midget our coach had different lineup.

    Each line also had a specific forecheck. That way the opposite team couldn’t change there breakouts to escape our forechecks, because it was different every time.

    If we managed it, im sure the worlds best could.

    You just need a coach that’s going to stick with it for 40 away games and 40 home games.

    You can pretty much kiss Nuge goodbye as a UFA if Tippett went this route.

  71. BONE207 says:

    Ben:
    Ryan McLeod is my dark horse pick to play an NHL game in 19/20.

    No idea what they do with their 17 4th-liners, but suspect that the waiver wire in early Oct will be a bloodbath.

    Stauffer’s telegraphing JP back on the roster, which is probably the best outcome for all involved. Holland needs to find a Derek Ryan to spark the pump+dump.

    Super curious to see where the new Euros land on a scale from Hejda to Belov to Pettrell.

    Ben, I think you are referring to Derek Roy.

    The thing is with Poolparty, we really don’t know what he is. Last season he a great game where he was all over the ice, hitting & scoring. If we could get that guy for 80 games, A LOT of problems would be solved. Until then, we have this waiting game…

  72. stush18 says:

    defmn,

    Im not LT, but I think your are correct, in that its a combination of everything you said.

    I would think playing in the top 6 would be more important to him than playing right side, unless the oilers play 3 centres deep and then he can play the offside

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    Glovjuice: Posit. LOL. OP is rubbing off.

    His is a material contribution to the Lowetide vernacular.

  74. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Why?

    Top 6 minutes with Draisaitl at home, and 3 lines rolling on the road. 1st line PP minutes all season long?

    Hes still getting 20 min a night at home and 18 on the road.

  75. John Chambers says:

    Neal – RNH – Puljujarvi

    This looks like a plausible 2nd line provided that the wingers play up to their potential.

    I also like the veteran / speedy youngster balance on the wings.

  76. npanciroli says:

    I think you need to play Neal RW with Nuge or McDavid based on his previous statements about playing with left shot centers.

    Draisaitl McDavid RW
    LW RNH Neal

    Is how I would run it. I could easily see Gagner taking 1RW with Tippett and Benson taking 2LW.

  77. HT Joe says:

    HT Joe: To follow-up on yesterday’s fun discussions, is Nurse a $7M player?

    Lots of verbal back and forth, and my takeaway is that most of us like the player, but an annual cap hit of $7M is too rich, and may necessitate a trade.

    I know Chia was the king of “death by a thousand papercuts”, but what’s the line in the sand for Nurse. Can we agree that $6M is reasonable for Nurse right now? And if so, assuming it’s a long term deal, how is the extra $1M going to kill the team? It sort of seems like $6M Nurse is okay but $7M Nurse breaks the team.

    OP: I have not forgotten your big picture view (something I am intrinsically poor at, and appreciate explanations of the sort). If I have some time over the next day or so, I’m going to try to get a better sense of if $19 Million is reasonable for the bottom 6 forwards, bottom 2 blueliners, backup goalie, and extra 3 players (so an extra 4th line C, extra 4th line winger, extra bottom pairing blueliner).

    So the question seems to be, is it unreasonable for the Oilers to sign their bottom 12 players (backup goalie, bottom 6 forwards, bottom pair of defensemen, and extra 3 players as-needed) using $18-19M. Here are the cream of the crop teams from the last decade (which all achieved an average of 100+ points per season since 2008-2009), and how their teams leading into the 2019-2020 seasons are constructed: (Numbers from Capfriendly)

    Pittsburgh:
    Forwards (x7): $11.675
    Defense (x4): $5.5
    Goalie (x1): $1.25
    TOTAL: $18.425

    Washington:
    Forwards (x7): $12.6
    Defense (x3): $3.87
    Goalie (x1): $1.1
    TOTAL: $17.57

    Boston:
    Forwards (x8): $9.858
    Defense (x3): $2.925
    Goalie (x1): $2.75
    TOTAL: $15.533

    San Jose:
    Forwards: (x5): $4.025 <– they need more forwards
    Defense: (x4): $3.17
    Goalie: (x1): $1.9
    TOTAL: $9.095 <– they have ~ $9M to add 2-3 forwards

    Saint Louis Blues:
    Forwards: (x7): $11.645
    Defense: (x4): $3.4975
    Goalie: (x1): $4.35
    TOTAL: $19.49

    So Saint Louis is on the high side with $19.5M, and Boston is on the low side with $15.53M spent on the bottom 12-ish players. I'm not counting San Jose – they clearly have to sign more players still.

    But if Nurse is signed next offseason to a long-term $7M per year contract, the Oilers will have more money available for their bottom 12 players than Boston and Washington, and a comparable amount as Pittsburgh.

    If the GM decides Nurse will be worth $7M per year over the next many years, doing so will put the Oilers very much in line with the cap breakdown of the very best teams in the league over the last 11 seasons.

  78. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks: So in your model, Neal and Gagner can dominate the likes of a backchecking Rantanen or Landeskog provided they have the puck to start?

    I don’t think playing ‘keep away’ is nearly as simple as you’re portraying it. Jmo.

    The thing with the best offensive players in the world, is most really don’t enjoy playing defense. Look at most players heat maps for shot rates. Positive in the offensive end, negative in their own end. Theyre just really good out of their own end, which makes up the difference.

    Wingers are useless in their own zone, especially if youre playing zone.

    Its pretty simple. Gagner and Neal have extremely good results in the offensive end, and I believe adding the best player in the planet is going to discount any defensive deficiencies they have because they wont be playing in their own end.

    Youre focusing too much on Mcdavids line.

    If COL is sending Mckinnon-Landeskog-Rantanen out to take defensive zone draws against Mcdavid, that means Nuge and Draisaitl get to play against lines 2-4.

    If you split Gagner and Neal onto separate lines, those lines don’t have drivers who can keep play in the offensive end, and lines 2-4 suffer.

    Were also ignoring the fact that Mcdavid doesn’t get any significant push from Draisatl, at least not compared to what they do to the lines away from each other.

    Whats more valuable
    Line 1 55% CF and GF
    lines 2-4 46% CF and GF

    or all four lines sawing off around 50%?

  79. Material Elvis says:

    Bag of Pucks: Starfish. The Russell reset. Off the glass and out.

    These are 3 ‘saw him bad’ issues I equate with KR. None of them analytics driven.

    I don’t think it’s an analytics bias alone that has many soured on this player. Nurse is chaos enough. He doesn’t need more from his partner.

    Regarding the Russell Reset, I wonder how often he did that because the forwards were in no position to accept a pass. On TV, it is very difficult to see up the ice when the camera is focused on the Dman carrying the puck. He does this more than the other defensemen but is it necessarily a bad thing? If the alternative is forcing a pass into coverage or icing the puck then I prefer the Reset. The Starfish is one thing that I wish he would stop doing — it is completely ineffective.

  80. stush18 says:

    HT Joe,

    This is an interesting thought process.

    Problem is how much salaries are raising, and how to equate that to what teams in the past paid versus now.

    40 point dmen were not getting $7 mill when these teams were signing contracts.

    Also depends where you are slotting players. Is Neal top 6 or bottom 6 in this equation?

  81. Material Elvis says:

    Melvis:
    Now if only they’d get rid of that creepy Trivago guy.

    Pretty sure that he is doing his best to lose that job….

  82. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    In what world is a guy who’s played 56 games — across multiple seasons, mind you — considered a “vet?”

    – I put “vet” in quote, to denote this. Cave has played the most minute, he’s the “vet” : “Jerk”

    – In the next line, I noted Brodziak was a vet (no brackets)

    – I think between playing a guy who has experience, and a guy with no NHL experience, and Brodziak who seemed done, he will choose Colby to start year and Marody in minors None are his guys: only Haas, so he has a chance, but no clue how he holds up, and he has an out with his Euro team if he doesn’t make it, so not a big investment by Holland

    – You just have to look at who got acquired: they are the first chances.

    – I disagree that there is much (or really any) competition for NHL spots for day 1 of season

    – But I say this every year: training camp isn’t “try-out camp”

    – And separate, my strong belief is that you need the 3 Cs on 3 lines, and load up on PP and when needed last minutes of game, double sifts, , else you don’t develop wingers (or Drai as a C)

    – I think McD and two guys, and between Pool if he stays, Neal, Kassian, Chiasson, and Kailer, Benson, any Holland guys, trades, draft and develop, you need to have for the start of next season 4 other wingers who have played with skill. Not with Gagner, Brodziak, Cave, rookie C’s…

  83. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Glovjuice: Posit. LOL. OP is rubbing off.

    Yikes. Hope he is alone. Otherwise that would be rather egregious.

  84. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Before last season he had 3 full AHL seasons & 3 NHL *games*. That equates to about one espresso.

    Last year his waiver eligibility ran out, he cleared once, got recalled, then didn’t clear the second time. And just like that he was in the NHL to stay… until at least the end of the season.

    As a four-year pro Cave is a vet, but not really an NHL vet. To me a player crosses that threshold when he plays a full season in the bigs. Cave was still at the tweener stage last year.

    That said there are a couple of things in his favour.

    1) his cap hit of $675,000 is actually BELOW the league minimum, given he signed a two-year bridge at two different minima ($650, then $700). Not sure it’s possible to have a lower cap hit than Colby Cave in 2019-20. Meaning if he beats out a veteran like, say, Brodziak for a job, that’s a $400,000 cap savings.

    2) Cave’s underlying numbers from last year are eye-popping. Of the 14 Oilers forwards with 300+ minutes:

    CF% 52.03% — 1st
    FF% 53.23% — 1st
    SF% 54.13% — 1st
    SCF% 52.12% — 1st
    HDCF% 62.16% (!) — 1st
    **DFF% 57.4% — 1st
    xGF% 56.03% — 1st
    GF% 37.50% — 11th

    ( **PuckIQ stat, all others from Natural Stat Trick )

    These are listed in increasing importance (with Danger Fenwick interpolated) & rarity. Talk about doing everything right and getting the wrong result.

    Bear in mind that Cave’s time in EDM came in the Hitchcock part of the season where Oilers shot metrics were relatively poor vs. the TMc segment, so it stands to reason that he crushed it even more on the Relatives (Sam Gagner shows well here also). His DFF% of 57.4% was 5% clear of the second guy on the list (Gagner, 52.2%).

    Huge caveat is QualComp, where the terrific PuckIQ shows Cave playing the most sheltered minutes with just 18% vs. Elites, with Gagner next at just over 20%. But it’s not like Cave was lining up with Connor & Leon on his side of the ice either.

    Finally Cave led the team in FOW% at 52.5%, including 53.6% in the d-zone & 64.7% on the PK (just 17 draws, he was a depth PKer as a rookie). He had the third lowest OZS% on the team.


    Chia’s guy or not, he showed a fair bit as a mature rookie in a depth role, & given that cap hit I think he’s an easy choice to be on the roster if not actually in the opening night line-up. Some scoring touch would be nice, but I don’t suppose That guy would be on the waiver wire.

    Bonus trivia: Colby Cave was the last player acquired by Peter Chiarelli in both Boston & Edmonton.

    Seems like a decent bet for 4C unless he gets bumped by a better solution.

  85. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Bonus trivia: Colby Cave was the last player acquired by Peter Chiarelli in both Boston & Edmonton.

    – When Cave was signed here, someone one poster commented: “If only history repeats itself”. It was a beaut pithy post. You had to know this context to appreciate it.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:

    Stauffer’s telegraphing JP back on the roster, which is probably the best outcome for all involved.

    Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Puljujarvi/Nuge/Neal
    Granlund/Marody/Chiasson
    Nygard/Khaira/Archibald

    Jurco, Hass

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Benning
    Russell/Jones (Persson)

    Manning (only to sit in the pressbox – Persson, Jones, Lagesson sent down to play until injury/failure

    Koskinen
    Smith

  87. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ribs:
    Well, wouldya look at that. Aberg and Gravel signed with Toronto.

    https://www.tsn.ca/toronto-maple-leafs-announce-seven-free-agent-signings-1.1341521

    Leafs sign seven “one day after gaining cap flexibility in acquiring David Clarkson’s contract”.

    My head is still spinning. Didn’t the Leafs gain cap flexibility when they got rid of Clarkson?

    Not saying both can’t be true, just that the CBA is one complicated beast. If Kyle Dubas & his capologist managed to turn David F. Clarkson into a cap asset, I am duly impressed..

  88. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Puljujarvi/Nuge/Neal
    Granlund/Marody/Chiasson
    Nygard/Khaira/Archibald

    Jurco, Hass

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Benning
    Russell/Jones (Persson)

    Manning(only to sit in the pressbox – Persson, Jones, Lagesson sent down to play until injury/failure

    Koskinen
    Smith

    Gagner in Bakersfield? Or does that put Haas back in Switzerland?

  89. Material Elvis says:

    I just can’t see JP back on the Oilers. When things get this bad, it is very difficult to reconcile the relationship. Holland’s moves indicate (to me) that they are planning on moving ahead without him. I think he’s the prime trade chip that they will use to get a 3C.

  90. leadfarmer says:

    Material Elvis,

    Don’t think he has much value and he has no leverage other than complaining.
    A patient GM can easily turn this into a Duchenne situation
    I personally would not trade him until he’s earned a trade

  91. Primetime says:

    Material Elvis: Regarding the Russell Reset, I wonder how often he did that because the forwards were in no position to accept a pass.On TV, it is very difficult to see up the ice when the camera is focused on the Dman carrying the puck.He does this more than the other defensemen but is it necessarily a bad thing?If the alternative is forcing a pass into coverage or icing the puck then I prefer the Reset. The Starfish is one thing that I wish he would stop doing — it is completely ineffective.

    This is TOTALLY based on eye test only, but I go to several games a year. The Russel Reset often came with the centre (Drai/McDavid/RNH) swinging down low in full flight looking for the pass that never came. Not that I want to interpret “body language” but the centre would seem to be visibly frustrated and often head to the bench for a change instead. While Russel reset, the forecheck would come while the lines were changing so nowhere to go now and he would rattle it around the boards. Very frustrating to watch while sipping my $20 beer…..

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB:
    Joel Eriksson Ek, Kyrou, Tolvanen would all scratch an itch.

    Buchnevich or Gusev would scratch a bigger one – for me.

    I think Vegas is likely trying to get Gusev under contract with the Clarkson disposition.

    Buchnevich is likely a pipedream and I would settle for Brendan Lemieux and a mid pick.

  93. Oil2Oilers says:

    I hope the Oilers retain and play Puljujarvi.

    I believe that Russell, should a prospect or two makes themselves known, could be used to upgrade 3C mid season.

    Don’t see a route to the NHL for Bear with the Oilers, I hope he finds it with a different team.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    stush18,

    I’m all for playing McDavid with lesser Fs ala Crosby but not two guys that bleed shots against. Connor isn’t stellar in his own zone yet either. Plus i don’t see Gagner or Neal doing any of the dirty work on that line. Replace one of them with Nuge or Kassian and i think you have a line that can better handle the toughs that they will have to face.

    To be fair, line combos are always speculative. You never know who will really have chem until you try it.

    Hall and McDavid looked like a no brainer on the surface but they both wanted to transport through the neutral zone.

  95. Material Elvis says:

    leadfarmer:
    Material Elvis,

    Don’t think he has much value and he has no leverage other than complaining.
    A patient GM can easily turn this into a Duchenne situation
    I personally would not trade him until he’s earned a trade

    How can a patient GM turn it into a Duchene situation if the player in question doesn’t have much value? Sakic could afford to be patient because Duchene is a top 6 center with a long track record of putting up solid production. No one, not even Ken Holland could parlay JP into *that* kind of return. JP would have to earn his time by playing well in a third line role; however, there is not a great 3C to play with and I doubt he puts up enough production with an average 3C to ‘earn’ a trade that is any better than what they would get for him now. Moreover, the player has become a distraction and I don’t think that they would be keen on dealing with him all winter. I just don’t see it happening.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB:
    Kyrou is a center, right?

    Tolvanen had solid numbers for a 19 year old in the AHL. If Kyrou could be our 3C, with his speed he could have the potential to be a great controlled zone entry guy for that third line, something that may be missing with our other internal candidates who are fighting for that spot.

    I sincerely hope and pray KY tears the cover off the ball and has a healthy season this year. Frank Vatrano type #’s would put him back in the conversation as a higher end prospect

    If Kailer stays healthy, I am confident he’ll be at or over a PPG in the AHL – hopefully management leaves him there for at least 30-40 games before he’s an option (and hopefully the team plays and produces well enough to help management “forget about him” for that period of time).

    Yes, I mentioned Tolaven for JP a couple months ago. Don’t see it happening mind you.

  97. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Buchnevich or Gusev would scratch a bigger one – for me.

    I think Vegas is likely trying to get Gusev under contract with the Clarkson disposition.

    Buchnevich is likely a pipedream and I would settle for Brendan Lemieux and a mid pick.

    I don’t get what people see with Lemieux. Goon with limited skill

  98. defmn says:

    HT Joe: So the question seems to be, is it unreasonable for the Oilers to sign their bottom 12 players (backup goalie, bottom 6 forwards, bottom pair of defensemen, and extra 3 players as-needed) using $18-19M.Here are the cream of the crop teams from the last decade (which all achieved an average of 100+ points per season since 2008-2009), and how their teams leading into the 2019-2020 seasons are constructed:(Numbers from Capfriendly)

    Pittsburgh:
    Forwards (x7): $11.675
    Defense (x4): $5.5
    Goalie (x1): $1.25
    TOTAL: $18.425

    Washington:
    Forwards (x7): $12.6
    Defense (x3): $3.87
    Goalie (x1): $1.1
    TOTAL: $17.57

    Boston:
    Forwards (x8): $9.858
    Defense (x3): $2.925
    Goalie (x1): $2.75
    TOTAL: $15.533

    San Jose:
    Forwards: (x5): $4.025 <– they need more forwards
    Defense: (x4): $3.17
    Goalie: (x1): $1.9
    TOTAL: $9.095 <– they have ~ $9M to add 2-3 forwards

    Saint Louis Blues:
    Forwards: (x7): $11.645
    Defense: (x4): $3.4975
    Goalie: (x1): $4.35
    TOTAL: $19.49

    So Saint Louis is on the high side with $19.5M, and Boston is on the low side with $15.53M spent on the bottom 12-ish players.I’m not counting San Jose – they clearly have to sign more players still.

    But if Nurse is signed next offseason to a long-term $7M per year contract, the Oilers will have more money available for their bottom 12 players than Boston and Washington, and a comparable amount as Pittsburgh.

    If the GM decides Nurse will be worth $7M per year over the next many years, doing so will put the Oilers very much in line with the cap breakdown of the very best teams in the league over the last 11 seasons.

    I was the one to first post about the capologist’s dream balance yesterday with the bottom half of the order coming in at $19.5 mil. The problem the Oilers have is that they are “top heavy” with Draisaitl and McDavid. You can sign Nurse for $9 mil if you like. You just can’t have to have all your wingers working for below what a balanced lineup looks like.

    I will post it again.

    Goalies – $8 mil
    Dmen – $24 mil
    Forwards – $48 mil
    Contingency – $1.5 mil

    Divide it how you like.

    Total – $81.5 mil

    Now subtract the $5 mil or so for dead cap space that the Oilers have managed to accrue.

    $76.5

    Now subtract $12.5 + $8.5 + $6 +5.75 =$32.5
    McDavid+Draisaitl+Nuge+Neal

    $44 mil

    Now subtract $19.5 for your bottom six + 2 press box forwards + bottom pair + pressbox dman + backup.

    $24.5

    This is what you have left for two top six wingers (if Neal rebounds), 4 top 4 dmen and a starting goalie.

    So, yes, you can sign Nurse for $7 mil. That leaves you with

    $17.5 mil for two top six wingers, 3 top four dmen and a starting goalie.

    Nobody said it couldn’t be done. What was said is that it would cause the cap budget to be further unbalanced.

    If we had/have a successful draft strategy supplying lots of ELC contracts for these positions it is not a problem at all. I will leave it to others to decide if that is the case.

  99. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I see no reason for Brodziak to play over Cave. Send KB to Bako.

  100. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Neal likes to play R so he can accept passes on his off side to shift angles on the d and goalie.

  101. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ribs:
    Well, wouldya look at that. Aberg and Gravel signed with Toronto.

    https://www.tsn.ca/toronto-maple-leafs-announce-seven-free-agent-signings-1.1341521

    Ok, those signings in conjunction with the Clarkson move are impressive.

    I’ll stop calling him Kyle Doobies….for now 😏

  102. New Improved Darkness says:

    I don’t know whether intelligence life exists elsewhere in the universe, but if it does, and we someday make first contact, I do know what the first question will be:

    “Is this your first time?” asks he/she/it/they.

    The pretty 17-year-old SETI intern blushes bright red.

    But the question actually translates to: Is this your first contact?

    Your first time, you’re all so worked up about your embarrassing uncles (such as Uncle Adolf, with his amazing stage presence and yet those extreme views on species membership). But really, on your first SETI date, you’ve got far bigger fish to fry than the 0.1% of the human species who came to a horrific end during the Holocaust for not a terribly good reason.

    In normal human discourse, when you meet someone new who might potentially mean something to you one day, the first order of business is to establish ground rules on when and how to be properly embarrassed.

    But with ET—in the pie-eyed throes of first contact—embarrassment is almost entirely off the table for the first hundred years. There are so many other things to understand first (without which, xeno-embarrassment is an alien riddle wrapped around an alien culture wrapped around alien microbiology).

    The best single book I’ve read this century is easily Robert Sapolsky’s Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst (2017).

    After 50% of a second reading, I’ve come to understand that the foundational idea of the entire book is blame.

    There’s a war going on right now between the humanities and the biological sciences about culture verses nature. From the culture camp the cry arises that it’s a social construct all the way down: the turtle’s hard shell matters not at all to turtle social behaviour patterns (well—not after the turtle noggin becomes so packed to the cranial domes with excess white matter that the turtle can no longer retract all that glucose-glutinous neuroplasticity to hard safety; this is a “wee turtle head” that will expand Fat Bastard’s eyes to the size of dinner plates).

    Here’s the thing I finally realized: the cultural side of this debate is fudging the y-axis.

    So let’s back up and add clear and transparent units in a number system recognizable to Archimedes as a viable form of measurement.

    Intensity of human sexuality as a social construct: normalized by definition to 1.

    Intensity of blame as a social construct on the same scale: somewhere between 100 and 1000.

    Blame, bad performance, and bad outcomes are a notoriously tight triad.

    Causal direction? Unclear.

    As a first approximation, even bad performance / bad outcome only have a solid but mediocre correlation coefficient of r=0.5.

    I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.

    (I chose the King James version only because I like to see “favour” spelled with a “u” as God intended. Now you might claim that I was also seduced by the King James’ superior sonority. So go right ahead and prove it—I admit nothing.)

    I was trying to make my way into The Ape that Understood the Universe (2018) last night. The first chapter contains an eight-page conceit which reproduces an alien xenobiologist’s report on humanity in the Betelgeusean Academy of Sciences. I found most of this a cringeworthy as arthritic constipation or psoriatic diarrhea (perhaps with the second coinage I’m indulging ever so slightly in hyperbole). In any case—adding vertigo to insult—this passage’s egregiousness swings both ways on the drought–monsoon chandelier.

    Now I quickly forgave Steve Stewart-Williams for his expository sins. He’s projecting the bottom quartile of his eternal-September Evolution 101 onto the general reading public. This particular venue has a sharp mode at 18 years of age (and another smaller mode at age 19, looking vaguely familiar from the year before—none from the front rows of class where you might recall an exact likeness—but now with distinctly more lip hair, or wielding girl-power phones adorned with distinctly fewer rainbow-farting unicorn/vampire true-love stickers). Probably rather than my harsh criticism, Steve Stewart-Williams deserves a Purple Heart.

    This is an age range that I characterize as a great cluestick sorting hat.

    Some emerge with a working grasp of explanatory depth. Others emerge with a diverse portfolio of alternate cognitive heuristics (lacking explanatory depth, it’s horses for courses all the way down).

    For example, one of those heuristics involves seeking personal life advice from Cat Stevens:

    Oh baby baby it’s a wild world
    It’s hard to get by just upon a smile
    Oh baby baby it’s a wild world
    I’ll always remember you like a child, girl

    Quoted for truth.

    Those of us with explanatory depth tend to prudently cross the street whenever we encounter blame during it’s acne years. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. What was lost in translation is that during the human animal’s late adolescent years, most of that work takes place in front of the bathroom mirror. Dull, but strident.

    Vanity of vanities; all is vanity.

    Whoever originally penned those lines clearly spent some age-appropriate quality time with a keenly reflective surface. It’s already clear how the semantic drift between proud/meaningless was baked in from the outset. At this sensitive age, they’re much the same concept.

    Quora: What does “vanity of vanities” mean?

    The use of “vanity” here is similar to the way it is employed in the Ten Commandments in the King James Bible. “Do not take the Lord’s name in vain” does not mean “Don’t say the Lord’s name proudly.” Rather, it means do not say the Lord’s name frivolously — that is, without proper respect or seriousness of purpose.

    Or perhaps: “Don’t use the Lord’s name jokingly.”

    But the Old Testament priests felt it was so risky to say the name of God without sufficient seriousness of purpose, it was safer just not to say it at all.

    Man, that’s a pickle: my seriousness of purpose is shot through with frivolity on steroids. Horns of a dilemma—which might yet catch up to me in some future life. Hey, don’t mind me sucking my thumb in the corner all by my lonesome—I’m just here to impose a wee, novel reticule on the whole of society’s present culture wars. You know, just the novel addition of a y-axis that resembles a metric space, for the benefit of the humanities types who skipped all of advanced algebra K though 12—”and beyond!” cheers Buzz-Lightyear Barbie with an energetic swoosh of her glitterati pompoms.

    Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

    One hesitates to amend Alexander Pope, though it has been 300 years now, and thus a little Saganization might not be amiss.

    Fools rush in where angels fear to blush.

    I don’t know much, but I do know this: if someday first contract transpires, it’s going to baaad, bad, bad in the inaugural innings. American Pie bad. I wince inside just thinking about all the embarrassment-centric cultural overtures that go over like a plumbum dirigible on an airless planet.

    ———

    Experienced ET: No, no, no—you’re doing great. Don’t you worry your strangely fuzzy noggins. It’s not you, it’s us. Now try to relax—with no more thinking whatsoever about Uncle Adolf or pink fig leaves.

  103. Bag of Pucks says:

    Gravel better than Manning and possibly even Benning in the long run.
    Aberg better than Spooner and Rieder.

    Because Oilers. Sigh.

    It seems like the “keep good players” part is actually harder for this org than the “get good players” part.

  104. PennersPancakes says:

    Bag of Pucks: Aberg better than Spooner and Rieder.

    Thats like being the thinnest kid at fat camp though.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Waitingforacup:
    I don’t get the trade Jesse Puljujarvi talk.I know his agent has said that is what he wants but frankly who cares?

    The reality is that Jesse does not have a lot of options.I do not believe that he will go back to play in Europe unless there is a serious issue we don’t know about.He will make less $$$ next year in Europe than he will in Edmonton.In addition, going to Europe is a risk for future NHL work.If he does not dominate he is not coming back to a big payday.

    The opportunity in Edmonton is better than almost any other NHL city.There is a new GM/Coach.I am sure they have already told him he has a clean slate.There are quality centers to play with.

    From where I type he signs a 1 year contract ( I hope Ken can get 2 years) at a small raise.

    Holland has done his diligence, exploring the trade market for Jesse but has been clear that he acts in the best interests of the Oilers and won’t trade Jesse for a return he deems unacceptable just because Jesse has “requested” it. So far Holland has not deemed any potential return acceptable so Jesse waits.

    I am still hopeful that, with all the changes, Jesse “changes his mind” and signs for this coming year.

    Before all of this “trade request” BS went down, I though Jesse would sign for about Khaira money – a few hundred grand over his QO just a a “pedigree bump”.

    At this point, I wonder if Holland digs in further and is only willing to pony up the QO amount as “punishment” for Jesse’s behavior?

  106. Material Elvis says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Gravel better than Manning and possibly even Benming in the long run.
    Aberg better than Spooner and Rieder.

    Because Oilers. Sigh.

    Of all their shit moves, moving on from Gravel and Aberg is the least sigh-worthy. I don’t think Gravel is any better than the 36 third pairing left handed defensemen that are on the roster already. I’d take Benning any day over Gravel. And Aberg…..he has some skill but there is something about that guy that drives coaches and managers nuts. Even after his heater to start last season on Anaheim, he was scratched then put on waivers. And he just signed for the league minimum so obviously not a hot commodity. Toronto is likely last chance Texaco for Aberg.

  107. HT Joe says:

    defmn: Total – $81.5 mil
    Now subtract the $5 mil or so for dead cap space that the Oilers have managed to accrue.
    $76.5
    Now subtract $12.5 + $8.5 + $6 +5.75 =$32.5
    McDavid+Draisaitl+Nuge+Neal
    $44 mil
    Now subtract $19.5 for your bottom six + 2 press box forwards + bottom pair + pressbox dman + backup.
    $24.5
    This is what you have left for two top six wingers (if Neal rebounds), 4 top 4 dmen and a starting goalie.
    So, yes, you can sign Nurse for $7 mil. That leaves you with
    $17.5 mil for two top six wingers, 3 top four dmen and a starting goalie.

    Very cool… thanks.

    I would argue 2020-2021 seasons will have a cap ceiling of $83.5M
    Dead cap $4.5
    Left with $79M
    Now subtract $12.5 + $8.5 + $6 +5.75 =$32.75 (McDavid+Draisaitl+Nuge+Neal)
    $46.25 mil

    Here’s where my approach is very different…
    Subtract $12.34 for Klefbom, Larsson, Russel
    $33.91 mil

    Subtract $7 for Nurse
    $26.91 mil

    I kept Chiasson in the picture, along with a slightly bumped-up Khaira
    Subtracted ~ $3.5
    $23.41 mil

    Subtract Koskinen $4.5
    $18.91 mil

    Top 6 (using signed players): McDavid, Drai, RNH, Khaira, Chiasson, Neal
    – Khaira likely needs to be upgraded for top 6, Neal may need to be upgraded
    Top 4: Russel, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse
    Existing starter goalie

    $18.91 left to sign #3 centre, bottom 6 forwards, bottom pairing defense, backup goalie

    From my exercise above, the best teams certainly have $18-19 mil for bottom 6F, bottom pairing D, backup goalie, and extra players.

    However, I do agree that barring a remarkable recovery, Neal may need to be upgraded, and Khaira will certainly need to be upgraded. Chiasson may be a stretch in top 6 if his numbers fall back to earth. Grinding down Nurse’s salary or trading away underperforming contracts will be key for Holland to upgrade the forwards next off-season.

    I agree – forward depth is still hurting badly. But allocating that $18 – $19 to the bottom players looks about right.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    HTJoe:

    OP:I have not forgotten your big picture view (something I am intrinsically poor at, and appreciate explanations of the sort).If I have some time over the next day or so, I’m going to try to get a better sense of if $19 Million is reasonable for the bottom 6 forwards, bottom 2 blueliners, backup goalie, and extra 3 players (so an extra 4th line C, extra 4th line winger, extra bottom pairing blueliner).

    Everyone:I floated this before, but with Nurse’s athleticism, aggression, positive skating, offensive instincts, occasional defensive lapse… would he potentially be a fit for winger with McDavid, freeing up Drai to drive line 2 and RNH driving line 3?Crazy, right?

    Nurse – McDavid – Kassian
    Neal – Drai – Chiasson
    xxx – RNH – xxx

    1) No worries – appreciate you differing view of things

    2 Nurse as a winger? That’s certainly an “out there” suggestion. With respect, can’t say that it seems like a good idea to me. For one, the man is a d-man, he’s played D for his life (well at least from junior on) and, despite not being perfect, he’s good at it. Secondly, as far as offensive instincts, this is a deficiency of his, despite putting up very good 5 on 5 numbers. He gets most of his points in the transition game and from getting the puck to the right forward early, when he has the puck in the offensive zone, well, generally that’s when things go down hill for him.

    Sorry, don’t like that idea at all.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    stush:
    Next thought Ive been debating in my head for a while,

    What are we going to do with our defense?

    Im not talking about the younger guys on the backend (Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard, Persson, and to a lesser extent, Jones). Im talking about our top 4.

    I think the most prudent course of action is to play

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Jones-Benning

    as our primary pairings, ignoring injuries and Perrson or others for right now.

    We need to know what Nurse is worth on his next contract, and Trouba and Matheson have raised the bar. So I run Nurse-Larsson with the tough minutes to start the year, and give Jones-Benning the easiest offensive obviously.

    Klefbom and Russell actually have fairly positive results together, and it makes sense. Klefbom is our best puck mover, and Russell allows him the freedom to jump in the play a bit more. Nurse and Larsson struggled last year, but I think it was more due to Larsons back injury.

    If Nurse cant handle those minutes, and is looking for Trouba money, hes an easy piece to move ALA Hamilton.

    I’m all for Nurse/Larsson – they have great success in 2017/18

    I’d try Klef/Benning as the 2nd pairing.

    If Benning is 3RD and there is no Russell on that 3rd pairing, I think Lagesson is right up there with Jones for 3LD. Jones’ ability to play 3RD given him an upper hand in trying to figure out pairing deployment.

  110. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    HT Joe:

    I agree – forward depth is still hurting badly. But allocating that $18 – $19 to the bottom players looks about right.

    – The consensus is that the forward depth is not very good. But the reluctance to play our 3C’s who are all pretty good, with wingers compounds this issue greatly IMO

    – By playing the few good ones together, and having the rest play amongst themselves and be bad, you compound the problem: as all but a few elite wingers in the league need good C’s to score

  111. Shane says:

    Darth Tu,

    Hey Darth, what band are you playing in at Sasquatch?
    I work in the Edmonton music industry, might know each other?

  112. deardylan says:

    Lowetide you just blew my friggin’ mind

    “That would have been a steal for the North Stars, but Edmonton used the pick (No. 48) on Mark Messier”

    JAW DROPS…

    SuuuuuuUnnnnreal….

    47 picks before..

    THE MOOSE. WTF!!!….

    Cue the music on 11 Spinal Tap amp playing…

    “This is how we do it”.. in the draft. .

    JAW AND MIC DROPS off the edge of a blackhole

    Lowetide you just blew my friggin’ mind

  113. defmn says:

    HT Joe:

    I agree – forward depth is still hurting badly. But allocating that $18 – $19 to the bottom players looks about right.

    From my original post on this.

    1st line – $20 mil
    2nd line – $15 mil
    3rd line – 7.5 mil
    4th line – 4 mil
    Extras – 1.5 mil

    Total – 48 mil

    1st pair – $12 mil
    2nd pair – $7 mil
    3rd pair – $4 mil
    Extra – $1 mil

    Total $24

    Goalies – $8

    Contingency – $1.5 mil

    This is, imo, a capologist’s dream template. From there the GM makes his decisions based upon availability, need and desperation. 😉

  114. Darth Tu says:

    Shane:
    Darth Tu,

    Hey Darth, what band are you playing in at Sasquatch?
    I work in the Edmonton music industry, might know each other?

    Hewson Grey

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    LondonJon:
    Caleb Jones was #6 in the whole league last year for denying zone entries. Based on 50 attempts +

    Relatively sample size, etc, but he did that playing a lot of top pair minutes.

    124 minutes without Gravel – so not on 3rd paring and, frankly, zone entry defence notwithstanding, he got killed in those minutes. Possession and goal share percentages all dropping to the 30s (from well above 50).

    He was a raw rookie that got shot up to 2nd and 1st pairing minutes so it was a learning experience but I’m not so sure that data point really means much, does it?

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    stush18,

    However, your specific player deployments do not optimize the use of the players.Chiasson was not good with McD last year, and should be with Drai, as they had stronger chem.

    Not only was Chiasson better with Drai than with McDavid but he went on this 5 on 5 heater with Rieder on the left side (and I think Rieder had like 7 assists in 6 games).

    I wonder if Granlund could be the Rieder replacement on the left side?

    Jurco perhaps.

  117. deardylan says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    I don’t know whether intelligence life exists elsewhere in the universe, but if it does, and we someday make first contact, I do know what the first question will be:

    “Is this your first time?” asks he/she/it/they.

    The pretty 17-year-old SETI intern blushes bright red.

    But the question actually translates to: Is this your first contact?

    Your first time, you’re all so worked up about your embarrassing uncles (such as Uncle Adolf, with his amazing stage presence and yet those extreme views on species membership). But really, on your first SETI date, you’ve got far bigger fish to fry than the 0.1% of the human species who came to a horrific end during the Holocaust for not a terribly good reason.

    In normal human discourse, when you meet someone new who might potentially mean something to you one day, the first order of business is to establish ground rules on when and how to be properly embarrassed.

    But with ET—in the pie-eyed throes of first contact—embarrassment is almost entirely off the table for the first hundred years. There are so many other things to understand first (without which, xeno-embarrassment is an alien riddle wrapped around an alien culture wrapped around alien microbiology).

    The best single book I’ve read this century is easily Robert Sapolsky’s Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst (2017).

    After 50% of a second reading, I’ve come to understand that the foundational idea of the entire book is blame.

    There’s a war going on right now between the humanities and the biological sciences about culture verses nature. From the culture camp the cry arises that it’s a social construct all the way down: the turtle’s hard shell matters not at all to turtle social behaviour patterns (well—not after the turtle noggin becomes so packed to the cranial domes with excess white matter that the turtle can no longer retract all that glucose-glutinous neuroplasticity to hard safety; this is a “wee turtle head” that will expand Fat Bastard’s eyes to the size of dinner plates).

    Here’s the thing I finally realized: the cultural side of this debate is fudging the y-axis.

    So let’s back up and add clear and transparent units in a number system recognizable to Archimedes as a viable form of measurement.

    Intensity of human sexuality as a social construct: normalized by definition to 1.

    Intensity of blame as a social construct on the same scale: somewhere between 100 and 1000.

    Blame, bad performance, and bad outcomes are a notoriously tight triad.

    Causal direction? Unclear.

    As a first approximation, even bad performance / bad outcome only have a solid but mediocre correlation coefficient of r=0.5.

    (I chose the King James version only because I like to see “favour” spelled with a “u” as God intended. Now you might claim that I was also seduced by the King James’ superior sonority. So go right ahead and prove it—I admit nothing.)

    I was trying to make my way into The Ape that Understood the Universe (2018) last night. The first chapter contains an eight-page conceit which reproduces an alien xenobiologist’s report on humanity in the Betelgeusean Academy of Sciences. I found most of this a cringeworthy as arthritic constipation or psoriatic diarrhea (perhaps with the second coinage I’m indulging ever so slightly in hyperbole). In any case—adding vertigo to insult—this passage’s egregiousness swings both ways on the drought–monsoon chandelier.

    Now I quickly forgave Steve Steward-Williams for his expository sins. He’s projecting the bottom quartile of his eternal-September Evolution 101 onto the general reading public. This particular venue has a sharp mode at 18 years of age (and another smaller mode at age 19, looking vaguely familiar from the year before—none from the front rows of class where you might recall an exact likeness—but now with distinctly more lip hair, or wielding girl-power phones adorned with distinctly fewer rainbow-farting unicorn/vampire true-love stickers). Probably rather than my harsh criticism, Steve Steward-Williams deserves a Purple Heart.

    This is an age range that I characterize as a great cluestick sorting hat.

    Some emerge with a working grasp of explanatory depth. Others emerge with a diverse portfolio of alternate cognitive heuristics (lacking explanatory depth, it’s horses for courses all the way down).

    For example, one of those heuristics involves seeking personal life advice from Cat Stevens:

    Quoted for truth.

    Those of us with explanatory depth tend to prudently cross the street whenever we encounter blame during it’s acne years. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. What was lost in translation is that during the human animal’s late adolescent years, most of that work takes place in front of the bathroom mirror. Dull, but strident.

    Whoever originally penned those lines clearly spent some age-appropriate quality time with a keenly reflective surface. It’s already clear how the semantic drift between proud/meaningless was baked in from the outset. At this sensitive age, they’re much the same concept.

    Quora: What does “vanity of vanities” mean?

    Man, that’s a pickle: my seriousness of purpose is shot through with frivolity on steroids. Horns of a dilemma—which might yet catch up to me in some future life. Hey, don’t mind me sucking my thumb in the corner all by my lonesome—I’m just here to impose a wee, novel reticule on the whole of society’s present culture wars. You know, just the novel addition of a y-axis that resembles a metric space, for the benefit of the humanities types who skipped all of advanced algebra K though 12—”and beyond!” cheers Buzz-Lightyear Barbie with an energetic swoosh of her glitterati pompoms.

    One hesitates to amend Alexander Pope, though it has been 300 years now, and thus a little Saganization might not be amiss.

    I don’t know much, but I do know this: if someday first contract transpires, it’s going to baaad, bad, bad in the inaugural innings. American Pie bad. I wince inside just thinking about all the embarrassment-centric cultural overtures that go over like a plumbum dirigible on an airless planet.

    ———

    Experienced ET: No, no, no—you’re doing great. Don’t you worry your strangely fuzzy noggins. It’s not you, it’s us. Now try to relax—with no more thinking whatsoever about Uncle Adolf or pink fig leaves.

    Brilliant musings

    Creativity of the Human Brain. Exhibit Infinity + 1

    I wonder if we meet an ET in the next few years we better ask them to decontaminate our planet before we catch the hibee gibees from our colonizers. Bacteria is a bitch.

  118. rickithebear says:

    Ben:
    Ryan McLeod is my dark horse pick to play an NHL game in 19/20.

    No idea what they do with their 17 4th-liners, but suspect that the waiver wire in early Oct will be a bloodbath.

    Stauffer’s telegraphing JP back on the roster, which is probably the best outcome for all involved. Holland needs to find a Derek Ryan to spark the pump+dump.

    Super curious to see where the new Euros land on a scale from Hejda to Belov to Pettrell.

    Ben the highest evg production by a fourth line winger ( by position) #94 in last 2 seasons.
    18-19
    LW 5 evg
    RW 4 evg
    LW 6 evg
    RW 4 evg

    Based on the offence, (that wins games) ( goals), results.
    Name the 17 fourth line forwards.

    Looking at a players last NHL season.
    Kassian RW 14 evg
    Chaisson LW RW 13 evg
    Archibald RW 12 evg
    Granlund RW 10 evg
    Jurco LW 17-18 29 gm 6 evg a 60gm 12 evg rate
    Gagner RW edm 25 gm 5 evg a 60gm 12 evg rate
    ——————————————- above are better than 4 th line numbers
    Brodziak C 5 evg
    Khaira LW 2 evg 10 evg in 17-18
    Here are 2
    but suspect Brodziaks ZS, Faceoff and bench change with ( OZ) or without ( DZ), is defensive

    What is becoming more clear to me is the CHL standard of thinking from most on this board.
    The fact they believe those unrepeatable ( at NHL level) standards are a NHL standard.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: I’d also posit that Jones denies so many because he is so aggressive at the blue line, and we saw him get walked several times for GA. I think learning the opposition and at what time is the right time to step up on a player at the blue line is part of the learning curve for D. Easier to be effective doing it against some achmuck from the Colorado Eagles than say Timo Meier burning down the wing.

    Obviously you want to limit entries with possession as best you can, but there’s a time and place where the safer play is to concede the blue line

    Wait until Samorukov is NHL ready (if ever) – man that guy is aggressive at the blue line – love the way he defends the zone entry.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of talk about matchup, on the road and at home, and line deployments – here is hoping that Tippett is able to use some on-the-fly, post-faceoff, changes to get certain match-ups – new age stuff man!

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    stush:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Why?

    Top 6 minutes with Draisaitl at home, and 3 lines rolling on the road. 1st line PP minutes all season long?

    Hes still getting 20 min a night at home and 18 on the road.

    Nuge and Neal should be on PP2 – well, Nuge for sure – one of his top skills is half-boards on the PP and I feel he’s underutilized on PP1 with McDavid.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    JohnChambers:
    Neal – RNH – Puljujarvi

    This looks like a plausible 2nd line provided that the wingers play up to their potential.

    I also like the veteran / speedy youngster balance on the wings.

    Yes, that is my second line (well, if they won’t go with the 3 centers which I have some time for).

  123. rickithebear says:

    deardylan: Brilliant musings

    Creativity of the Human Brain. Exhibit Infinity + 1

    I wonder if we meet an ET in the next few years we better ask them to decontaminate our planet before we catch the hibee gibees from our colonizers.Bacteria is a bitch.

    Ah Allegory!

    Some people’s musings is trying to advance society.
    Others are
    a Self indulgent Acid trip!

    I wish no one locks themselves in a debt life, unable to find a decent job to pay back the philosophical education received that a single hit of acid and hours of tea writing in a journal could have provided for almost no cost.

    A personal value that has no world value unless someone publishes the journal musings.

    To each their own!

    The mind is an evolutionary chemical driven mass developed in the womb.

    I like the clip created were ET comes to us and says we have not advanced enough not to be exterminated.
    Planet has 24 hours to prove we can be more advanced.
    In the end the whole world comes to a peace agreement.

    ET says that is the human Flaw the need for peace.

    Clinical Evolutionary biological Phsycologists have proven the more group identities the more tribal and violent we become.

    But history has shown the more like we try to create people the higher the mass death rate.

    Nazi German exterminated 6 million Jews, slavic gypsies, and homosexuals.

    Communist Russia & China exterminated 100’s of millions of people.

    Extreme right tribalism and a Marxist unitarism is 2 human disasters we should never repeat.

    Unless ET wants us 2!

  124. Jethro Tull says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    It’s turtles all the way down, bud.

    But tribalism vs. barbarism has long fascinated me. I see a lot here.

  125. Bruce McCurdy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Mirtle: Making sense of the bizarre trade that sent David Clarkson back to the Maple Leafs

    https://theathletic.com/1093195/2019/07/23/mirtle-making-sense-of-the-bizarre-trade-that-sent-david-clarkson-back-to-the-maple-leafs/

    Thanks. That’s the third explanation i’ve read, & the clearest. Still trying to get my head around it.

  126. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nuge and Neal should be on PP2 – well, Nuge for sure – one of his top skills is half-boards on the PP and I feel he’s underutilized on PP1 with McDavid.

    I posted top 45 90 ( 3 fwd PP), 125 ( 4 fwd PP), 160 (5 fwd PP) PPG & PPA results for forward & Dmen.

    The numbers clearly say running a 4 fwd with 1 Dmen who hopefully is one of the top 90 fwd 8 ppa standard (38) & Top 125 fwd ppg standard (33) in the game.
    Combined is their even 25 dmen of that standard.
    You sacrifice ppg production to have a better ppa dman in the 5th role.

    I do not give one hoot about PP2 unless the 2 wingers, (who will play with Draisaitl & Mcdavid playing the whole PP), have similiar PPG and PPGF/60 rates.

    Rested wingers is a nice interchange on a PP line.

  127. deardylan says:

    rickithebear: Ah Allegory!

    Some people’s musings is trying to advance society.
    Others are
    a Self indulgent Acid trip!

    I wish no one locks themselves in a debt life, unable to find a decent job to pay back the philosophical education received that a single hit of acid and hours of tea writing in a journal could have provided for almost no cost.

    A personal value that has no world value unless someone publishes the journal musings.

    To each their own!

    The mind is an evolutionary chemical driven mass developed in the womb.

    I like the clip created were ET comes to us and says we have not advanced enough not to be exterminated.
    Planet has 24 hours to prove we can be more advanced.
    In the end the whole world comes to a peace agreement.

    ET says that is the human Flaw the need for peace.

    Clinical Evolutionary biological Phsycologists have proven the more group identities the more tribal and violent we become.

    But history has shown the more like we try to create people the higher the mass death rate.

    Nazi German exterminated 6 million Jews, slavic gypsies, and homosexuals.

    Communist Russia & China exterminated 100’s of millions of people.

    Extreme right tribalism and a Marxist unitarism is 2 human disasters we should never repeat.

    Unless ET wants us 2!

    Isn’t the spirit molecule that trips the lucidity wire?
    And everyone else in world, except for a few lucky enough like you, are left trippin’ on oxy-gin

  128. deardylan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    New Improved Darkness,

    deardylan,

    – To be safe: I recommend the following: very timely:

    https://www.ibtimes.com/florida-company-selling-alien-abduction-insurance-offers-10-million-payout-2808377

    Thanks for the tip. Kinger did anyone take you up on that offer for NYC game? I might.

  129. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    deardylan: Thanks for the tip. Kinger did anyone take you up on that offer for NYC game?I might.

    – Road trip to Detroit (haven’t been to new arena), for the game on Tuesday, October 29th. Are you in? Anyone in GTA/Detroit/Windsor in: drive down, watch game, come back next day

    – For NYR, I’m going to the game Saturday, October 12th, as part of weekend getaway. There is Woodgie who says he’s trying to go, but no one else from NYC area (and I don’t have his email)

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    BruceMcCurdy: Leafs sign seven “one day after gaining cap flexibility in acquiring David Clarkson’s contract”.

    My head is still spinning. Didn’t the Leafs gain cap flexibility when they got rid of Clarkson?

    Not saying both can’t be true, just that the CBA is one complicated beast. If Kyle Dubas and his capologist managed to turn David F. Clarkson into a cap asset, I am duly impressed.

    I think it will increase their LTIR relief cushion as they will manage their cap to get right up to the limit on day 1, then place all those guys (Horton, Hyman, Clarkson, etc.) on LTIR and get $10M plus or room – sign Marner.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Material: Gagner in Bakersfield?Or does that put Haas back in Switzerland?

    I missed Gagner – oops.

    No, he’s definitely in the lineup and that would be fairly easy by moving out Marody but I’ve on this kick about him being 3C – not that anything he did in his 6:50 seconds/game with Brodziak and P. Russell last year indicates he’s ready for center, let alone up a line, but still.

    Yes, I am unconvinced Hass is an NHL player but Holland has been after him for a while so there has to be more to him than a regular above-average player from a 4th tier European league…..

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t see the Puljujarvi situation as comparable to the Duchene satiation but more of a Drouin situation – I think that’s a better comparable.

    With Proporov on board, trading Nurse becomes more palatable.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    BagofPucks:
    Gravel better than Manning and possibly even Benning in the long run.
    Aberg better than Spooner and Rieder.

    Because Oilers. Sigh.

    I like Gravel – a serviceable 3LD but I cannot agree that he’s better than Benning today or “in the long run” – While Benning is no “raw prospect” he’s still got room to grow a bit and Gravel is 27.

    I do bet most GMs would take Manning over Gravel if he was $750K – could be wrong on that.

    Aberg may be better than Spooner but he’s not better than Gagner.

    As bad as Strome for Spooner was, Spooner for Gagner was a pretty big win.

    I don’t see how Rieder is in the post – he cost zero assets, he was a fairly cheap reasonable bet that didn’t pan out and they moved on from him.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:

    What is becoming more clear to me is the CHL standard of thinking from most on this board.
    The fact they believe those unrepeatable ( at NHL level) standards are a NHL standard.

    People on here care, they go out of their way to wish good health, to offer help, etc.

    In return, almost every post, some passive aggressive, or just aggressive, insult.

    So disappointing, every single day.

  135. Ribs says:

    It’s interesting that Gravel will likely be battling with Marincin for NHL ice time in Toronto. Who comes out on top?

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: Phrasing.

    Are we still doing phrasing?

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: With Proporov on board, trading Nurse becomes more palatable.

    Did I miss something? I assume you mean Provorov… is there a rumour involving Edmonton?

  138. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I like Gravel – a serviceable 3LD but I cannot agree that he’s better than Benning today or “in the long run” – While Benning is no “raw prospect” he’s still got room to grow a bit and Gravel is 27.

    I do bet most GMs would take Manning over Gravel if he was $750K – could be wrong on that.

    Agree re: Gravel v Benning, but not your take on Manning v Gravel. Although I’m only an armchair GM, so there’s that…

  139. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Road trip to Detroit (haven’t been to new arena), for the game on Tuesday, October 29th.Are you in?Anyone in GTA/Detroit/Windsor in: drive down, watch game, come back next day

    – For NYR, I’m going to the game Saturday, October 12th, as part of weekend getaway.There is Woodgie who says he’s trying to go, but no one else from NYC area (and I don’t have his email)

    Me too. Road trip to celebrate the 50th. Going to see Oil vs. Islanders, Devils and Rangers.

  140. steelymac17 says:

    Would Columbus consider Caleb Jones,Puljujarvi and a 2nd for Josh Anderson?

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Did I miss something? I assume you mean Provorov… is there a rumour involving Edmonton?

    Of course not – it was a play on the Drouin for Sergachev trade.

  142. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I believe your list of certain Oilers is right.

    I would like to shave the following off the “uncertain Oilers” and throw them into a “lets be risk adverse and give these guys the benefit of development time”:

    Bouchard, Samorukov, Yamamoto

    Yamamoto – lets not forget this is his second year of pro.He’s a 22nd overall pick and not a top 10 pick – AHL development time should be expected for a 22nd overall pick and, frankly, he hasn’t received it yet.It was a mistake giving him NHL time in each of the last two years.I think its given much of the fan-base unreasonable expectations on his development timeline. Kailer didn’t really get the AHL development time he needed last year because not long after he gained traction the injuries kicked in. When he did start to gain traction, he drove the offence, even when playing with the likes of Tyler Vesel. He showed to be a plus/elite AHL level player but, frankly, didn’t get much time at that level. Lets give this young prospect the privellage of a solid 30-40 games of AHL time before he becomes an NHL option.Lets not call him up after he’s produced 11 points in 9 games but let him play and develop.

    Bouchard – this prospect is so important to the nedium and long term future of the club, that the club needs to be risk adverse.There is little doubt that he has certain NHL ready skills and NHL ready skills the team could use including puck transition and offensive zone play (both at evens and the PP).With that said, the jump from the CHL to the NHL is huge, in particular for young d-men. He did very well in the AHL last year but it was far from a regular shift.Until the last couple of games, he rarely got a 5 on 5 shift and was highly sheltered. Lets give this kid, like Yamamoto, 40 games before his name is an option. The organization has 3-4 NHL-ready, or close thereto, d-men that have been developing in pro the last few years – Jones, Lagesson, Persson, Bear.Sure, Bouchard is the sexier name and he very well may have NHL skills over some of these guys but we need to be risk adverse and just make sure. We don’t want to yo-yo Bouchard. We finally have the ability to be risk-adverse due to depth options.Lets use it.

    Sammy – Just love this guy but, similar to Bouchard, that is a large leap from the CHL to NHL and Sammy is even more raw than Bouch. I think the reasonable expectation for Sammy is to start at 3LD in the AHL (likey with Day) and work his way up to the top 4 with special teams play.

    So 30 or 40 games. You mean in 2 to 3 years.😇

  143. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    – cool. Let’s meet up How do I get in touch with you. That’s three now. You woodgie and I

  144. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: I missed Gagner – oops.

    No, he’s definitely in the lineup and that would be fairly easy by moving out Marody but I’ve on this kick about him being 3C – not that anything he did in his 6:50 seconds/game with Brodziak and P. Russell last year indicates he’s ready for center, let alone up a line, but still.

    Yes, I am unconvinced Hass is an NHL player but Holland has been after him for a while so there has to be more to him than a regular above-average player from a 4th tier European league…..

    Gagner is a 3 million dollar ghost everyone forgets he’s on the roster. He has absolutely zero pressure very few expect much out of him. Could he surprise and shock the masses and find a niche like he had in Columbus a few years back. Gagner does have the slap pass play down pat if Tippett can find a partner for Gagner that can work the slap pass on PP 2 or on his line it would go along way to us making the playoffs.

  145. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course not – it was a play on the Drouin for Sergachev trade.

    🙁

    I imagine that JP doesn’t even get the conversation started on Provorov.

  146. Scungilli Slushy says:

    London Jon: I like it and I’ve thought a lot along the same lines, pardon the pun.

    Two of my other frequent thoughts are:

    1) points and goals for a line aren’t that important. Outscoring is. I thought this a lot when Strome couldn’t score but was doing all the right things. What if Lucic-Strome-Reider could play 15 minutes a night against the other teams top 2 lines or middle 2 lines) and saw off or get close to it?

    Who cares if they score 10 goals all year. If they also only gave up 15 goals all year as a shutdown line against the top lines then that’s a win. Pair them up with Russell-Larsson as well.

    2) is anyone thinking about another model than 1C+2W+2D? Football (soccer to you) has evolved around formations a number of times. For example, the holding MF in front of the central defenders is now a given as they shut down that ultra dangerous space where chances are created from.

    I have no idea what another system is but every team plays the same formation and has played the same formation for decades.

    Maybe in own zone you put your rickibox defender in front of the net and then you have two workers playing the corners and boards. Your other two players close the lanes to the dangerous areas.

    Something fun to debate?!?!

    This is what Tippet said his system is in effect. Take good ice, let them have bad ice.

    I think we’ll see Nurse benefit a lot because man on man caters to his run around natural instincts instead of using that speed,wingspan and snarl to keep play in low percentage areas (how the Blues hampered the Bruins), caters to Russell’s game as it is, should help Benning, and all young D because the concept is simple.

    He also mentioned forward support which has been really poor for years. Much of the glass and out is that the average D didn’t have a target. Or made a poor pass.

    Options, 5 man system, like good teams do.

    McLellan and Hitch teams played the same way and looked the same after the dust settled. I don’t have time to figure out the reason, maybe some of you know the reason. But the reason is there. So much player and coaching changes suggests to me they kept hiring or demanding the same concepts and systems and blaming the players for the failure.

    Holland is doing different things, hopefully Tippet will. There is a nice base to build on. Well run they are a mid pack team easily. Which I of course don’t endorse as an outcome for more than one season – get it right and drive to the top, or be terrible and collect top talent draft picks.

    In between is meh and creates it’s own vortex the late 90s to mid 00s got stuck in, not enough to win the Cup, not enough to draft quality to be better – be the best at what you do, winning or losing.

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GMB3: I’d also posit that Jones denies so many because he is so aggressive at the blue line, and we saw him get walked several times for GA. I think learning the opposition and at what time is the right time to step up on a player at the blue line is part of the learning curve for D. Easier to be effective doing it against some achmuck from the Colorado Eagles than say Timo Meier burning down the wing.

    Obviously you want to limit entries with possession as best you can, but there’s a time and place where the safer play is to concede the blue line

    I think some of this comes down to coaching. Does the coach want to stand up the blue line, or does he value disrupting a clean entry and clean possession more than playing physical as the first priority?

    One is far easier than the other and less risky. Teams with good sticks – knocking down dumps to the corner, knocking down passes especially cross ice passes – are really hard to attack. This is what Lidstrom was so good at.

    You couldn’t get by him, you couldn’t put the puck between his legs, he took the puck off your stick or batted it away opening up a possession change, rarely with contact.

    The OBC was obsessed with beating down the opponent regardless of who was on the team – skill not suited, or bangers and giants not skilled enough to be in the league. See the results!

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:

    I imagine that JP doesn’t even get the conversation started on Provorov.

    Of course not – someone posited that the JP situation could be like the Duchene situation and a few disagree including myself who suggested it was more like the Drouin situation – hence the Provorov reference (akin to Sergachev, kind of).

  149. Nit64 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Thanks. That’s the third explanation i’ve read, & the clearest. Still trying to get my head around it.

    Best way to think about LTIR is this quote from the article:

    “If you’re in LTIR, you might as well go all-in because the penalties involved are there whether you use $1 of it or $30 million of it by the end of the season.”

    Try to avoid LTIR. If you’re stuck there eat all the LTIR you can get.

  150. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: I like Gravel – a serviceable 3LD but I cannot agree that he’s better than Benning today or “in the long run” – While Benning is no “raw prospect” he’s still got room to grow a bit and Gravel is 27.

    I do bet most GMs would take Manning over Gravel if he was $750K – could be wrong on that.

    Aberg may be better than Spooner but he’s not better than Gagner.

    As bad as Strome for Spooner was, Spooner for Gagner was a pretty big win.

    I don’t see how Rieder is in the post – he cost zero assets, he was a fairly cheap reasonable bet that didn’t pan out and they moved on from him.

    You quoted a portion of the post. That’s why most of your comments don’t apply. Maybe try keeping the context intact next time.

  151. Ryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy: This is what Tippet said his system is in effect. Take good ice, let them have bad ice.

    I think we’ll see Nurse benefit a lot because man on man caters to his run around natural instincts instead of using that speed,wingspan and snarl to keep play in low percentage areas (how the Blues hampered the Bruins), caters to Russell’s game as it is, should help Benning, and all young D because the concept is simple.

    He also mentioned forward support which has been really poor for years. Much of the glass and out is that the average D didn’t have a target. Or made a poor pass.

    Options, 5 man system, like good teams do.

    McLellan and Hitch teams played the same way and looked the same after the dust settled. I don’t have time to figure out the reason, maybe some of you know the reason. But the reason is there. So much player and coaching changes suggests to me they kept hiring or demanding the same concepts and systems and blaming the players for the failure.

    Holland is doing different things, hopefully Tippet will. There is a nice base to build on. Well run they are a mid pack team easily. Which I of course don’t endorse as an outcome for more than one season – get it right and drive to the top, or be terrible and collect top talent draft picks.

    In between is meh and creates it’s own vortex the late 90s to mid 00s got stuck in, not enough to win the Cup, not enough to draft quality to be better – be the best at what you do, winning or losing.

    Great thoughts.

    Yeah, some refer to it as Nurse hearing dog whistles.

    Agreed, part of Nurse’s d-zone problems are the man on man d system. He does have a tendency to chase the puck carrier everywhere in the dzone.

    The Blues apparently had problems playing man on man d with Mike Yeo.

    https://theathletic.com/590419/2018/10/16/whats-ailing-the-blues-defense-an-ex-nhl-defenseman-identifies-the-flaws/

    “What’s obvious to me now is that the Blues have gone back to a man-on-man, defensive-zone coverage, and that’s extinct. When the rules changed in 2004-05, nobody went back to man on man because you couldn’t hook and hold your guy anymore. So everything turned into what I call a ‘bump and run,’ where you can make contact, but you’ve got to stay within your zone. The Blues have defensemen now that are chasing players up to the blueline and centerman and wingers that are chasing their players back down below the goal line. This version that they’re playing right now is almost like ‘attack at all costs.’”

    This quote sounds like how the Oilers played last year especially with a Nurse chasing puck carriers to the blue line.

  152. deardylan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Road trip to Detroit (haven’t been to new arena), for the game on Tuesday, October 29th.Are you in?Anyone in GTA/Detroit/Windsor in: drive down, watch game, come back next day

    – For NYR, I’m going to the game Saturday, October 12th, as part of weekend getaway.There is Woodgie who says he’s trying to go, but no one else from NYC area (and I don’t have his email)

    Im in! Detroit sounds appropriate with our New Old Brah Club

  153. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Darth Tu: I’ve had a cassette version of Stranded in my car for the last few days.Song For Europe is absolutely stupendous. I love me some Roxy Music, (spoiler alert), so much so the band and I will be playing a cover of Love Is The Drug at Sasquatch Gathering this weekend.

    Enjoy your camping!

    Avalon although Ferry’s pet as opposed to a Roxy album is for me sublime. Some fantastic musicianship on that baby, the balance between Brittany the height of their game and having the maturity for subtle beauty and space in the production.

    Edit: I don’t know who the phone thinks Brittany is, I typed ‘being at’ 😀

  154. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: Great thoughts.

    Yeah, some refer to it as Nurse hearing dog whistles.

    Agreed, part of Nurse’s d-zone problems are the man on man d system. He does have a tendency to chase the puck carrier everywhere in the dzone.

    The Blues apparently had problems playing man on man d with Mike Yeo.

    https://theathletic.com/590419/2018/10/16/whats-ailing-the-blues-defense-an-ex-nhl-defenseman-identifies-the-flaws/

    “What’s obvious to me now is that the Blues have gone back to a man-on-man, defensive-zone coverage, and that’s extinct. When the rules changed in 2004-05, nobody went back to man on man because you couldn’t hook and hold your guy anymore. So everything turned into what I call a ‘bump and run,’ where you can make contact, but you’ve got to stay within your zone. The Blues have defensemen now that are chasing players up to the blueline and centerman and wingers that are chasing their players back down below the goal line. This version that they’re playing right now is almost like ‘attack at all costs.’”

    This quote sound like how the Oilers played last year especially with a Nurse chasing puck carriers to the blue line.

    Cheers. I’m hoping for more team sanity as the biggest win for next season.

  155. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan: Great thoughts.

    Yeah, some refer to it as Nurse hearing dog whistles.

    Agreed, part of Nurse’s d-zone problems are the man on man d system. He does have a tendency to chase the puck carrier everywhere in the dzone.

    The Blues apparently had problems playing man on man d with Mike Yeo.

    https://theathletic.com/590419/2018/10/16/whats-ailing-the-blues-defense-an-ex-nhl-defenseman-identifies-the-flaws/

    “What’s obvious to me now is that the Blues have gone back to a man-on-man, defensive-zone coverage, and that’s extinct. When the rules changed in 2004-05, nobody went back to man on man because you couldn’t hook and hold your guy anymore. So everything turned into what I call a ‘bump and run,’ where you can make contact, but you’ve got to stay within your zone. The Blues have defensemen now that are chasing players up to the blueline and centerman and wingers that are chasing their players back down below the goal line. This version that they’re playing right now is almost like ‘attack at all costs.’”

    This quote sounds like how the Oilers played last year especially with a Nurse chasing puck carriers to the blue line.

    Read the piece and it portrays the exact issues the Oilers have had for seasons and the results are bang on.

    Losses, system chaos, zero puck support, floundering goalies, team confidence collapse.

  156. Jaxon says:

    While Benson may be the closest to making it among forward prospects, I think I’m most excited about seeing how Maksimov doors. I think there is a decent (non zero?) chance he makes the team. The Oilers need goal scorers. Check. He’s big at 6’3″, 207lbs. Check. He’s physical and tough 3rd in OHL PIM with 118 minutes, and 2 fights. Check. He’s defensively responsible with a plus/minutes of +38 that ranks 9th among OHL forwards. The verbal I’ve read indicates he really worked on the defensive side of his game. Check. He’s fast. Check.

    From Dobber;
    “We know he can score goals but his overall game and compete level has improved this season. He has been more physical and more willing to help out defensively than in the past.”-Jameson Ewasiuk

    The Oil Knight had a great review of his game here:
    http://theoilknight.ca/2019/03/13/kirill-maksimov-prospect-review/

    I think Maksimov checks of a lot of boxes and is fairly unique in the Oilers’ system. He might warrant a longer look by the end of camp.

    The Oilers could use a big, tough, fast sniper on the wing who is defensively responsible and works hard. His set of tools might be unique enough to catapult him right to the NHL. We’ll see.

  157. Bulging Twine says:

    Alex Novet
    @AlexNovet
    With tracking data coming next year, I’m not sure many teams appreciate the mountain of work it will take to turn that kind of data into something valuable. Data scientists are great (I’m one!), but the next year is going to be all about data engineers

    Alex Novet
    @AlexNovet
    ·
    8h
    If I was a team preparing for tracking data, my hiring priorities would be:
    1. Multiple data engineers
    2. Someone experienced with tracking data in soccer/basketball/baseball
    3. Someone to translate between hockey analytics and coaching tactics (basically
    @RK_Stimp
    )

    Better get on it Oil. Time’s a wasting.

  158. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon,

    Is Maksimov a James Neal type?

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov may be the highest potential of the existing forward prospects as it comes to goal scoring – that shot is NHL ready and elite. He does have a 2-way game, a high work ethic and was a plus PK guy in the OHL this past year. He needs to work on his skating, his decision making, his “temper”, etc. – standard stuff for a junior guy. There is always a non-zero chance but I put the chance at minscule. He may even start in the middle 6 in the Bake as a rookie pro.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    ProfessorQ:
    Jaxon,

    Is Maksimov a James Neal type?

    He’s a shooter like Neal – if he makes the NHL, he may have the best forward shot on the Oilers since Arnott – OK, maybe Stoll.

    He’s a better 2-way player though – responsible and a PK buy (in junior at least) – he’s got a temper and is aggresive.

    He isn’t a fluid skater.

  161. London Jon says:

    Scungilli Slushy: This is what Tippet said his system is in effect. Take good ice, let them have bad ice.

    I think we’ll see Nurse benefit a lot because man on man caters to his run around natural instincts instead of using that speed,wingspan and snarl to keep play in low percentage areas (how the Blues hampered the Bruins), caters to Russell’s game as it is, should help Benning, and all young D because the concept is simple.

    He also mentioned forward support which has been really poor for years. Much of the glass and out is that the average D didn’t have a target. Or made a poor pass.

    Options, 5 man system, like good teams do.

    McLellan and Hitch teams played the same way and looked the same after the dust settled. I don’t have time to figure out the reason, maybe some of you know the reason. But the reason is there. So much player and coaching changes suggests to me they kept hiring or demanding the same concepts and systems and blaming the players for the failure.

    Holland is doing different things, hopefully Tippet will. There is a nice base to build on. Well run they are a mid pack team easily. Which I of course don’t endorse as an outcome for more than one season – get it right and drive to the top, or be terrible and collect top talent draft picks.

    In between is meh and creates it’s own vortex the late 90s to mid 00s got stuck in, not enough to win the Cup, not enough to draft quality to be better – be the best at what you do, winning or losing.

    Interesting, thanks for that insight. I’m so removed from playing coached hockey that I have zero idea what systems teams use and I can’t see these systems playing out in games like I’m sure some of you can easily.

    I’d love to sit with someone who has that knowledge, watch a game and have them pick it apart. Tactics and systems are not part of my viewing experience…but maybe that’s been for the best the last 10 years!!!

    Much more confident in Holland and Tippett getting it all right than PC and TMac. I know the GM isn’t coaching or setting up all of the systems, but I thought PC was arrogant, had a chip on his shoulder and thought he was smarter than he was from day one. And that sets the tone.

    Holland seems far more patient, collaborative and just an all round better operator.

    I feel positive. And excited.

  162. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    – cool. Let’s meet up How do I get in touch with you. That’s three now. You woodgie and I

    Good question!

  163. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Reja: Gagner is a 3 million dollar ghost everyone forgets he’s on the roster. He has absolutely zero pressure very few expect much out of him. Could he surprise and shock the masses and find a niche like he had in Columbus a few years back. Gagner does have the slap pass play down patif Tippett can find a partner for Gagnerthat can work the slap pass on PP 2 or on his line it would go along way to us making the playoffs.

    RNH!!!

  164. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Options, 5 man system, like good teams do.

    YES!

  165. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    London Jon: Interesting, thanks for that insight. I’m so removed from playing coached hockey that I have zero idea what systems teams use and I can’t see these systems playing out in games like I’m sure some of you can easily.

    I’d love to sit with someone who has that knowledge, watch a game and have them pick it apart. Tactics and systems are not part of my viewing experience…but maybe that’s been for the best the last 10 years!!!

    Much more confident in Holland and Tippett getting it all right than PC and TMac. I know the GM isn’t coaching or setting up all of the systems, but I thought PC was arrogant, had a chip on his shoulder and thought he was smarter than he was from day one. And that sets the tone.

    Holland seems far more patient, collaborative and just an all round better operator.

    I feel positive. And excited.

    I get the impression that Holland and Tippett are already more aligned in thinking for developing the team than Chia ever was with TMac or Hitch.

  166. Darth Tu says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Avalon although Ferry’s pet as opposed to a Roxy album is for me sublime. Some fantastic musicianship on that baby, the balance between Brittany the height of their game and having the maturity for subtle beauty and space in the production.

    Edit: I don’t know who the phone thinks Brittany is, I typed ‘being at’

    The Main Thing from Avalon is one of my go to tracks. Love it, the production is superb.

  167. russ99 says:

    Material Elvis,

    Every single one of our defensemen reset behind the net, it’s systemic, not focused on one player.

    I do hate when he drops to the ice too much, I hope Tippett can coach that out of him in less advantageous situations. He should still try to block shots from the point, but it only gives the opposition an advantage down low in odd man situations – usually where our forward blew coverage.

    I’d average 65% of the disdain against Russell to be analyics-based. His shot metrics are poor, he doesn’t trap at the blue line – and instead pulls back into coverage and gets in a good position to block shots. He doesn’t make a ton of clean stretch passes to spring the rush– but his passing is decent considering he’s on his off hand. He’s made plenty of good exit passes, but not the sexy cross ice ones that Klefbom can make.

    He’s still a useful defenseman and a good team player and coaches in general love him, which is why we’ll find takers when the young players pass him.

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