There was lots of talk during the buyout period about Sam Gagner and his contract. It would have been a cleaner buyout than the Andrej Sekera deal that came to fruition, but the team is razor thin on the wings and Gagner can post offense. I keep thinking his ideal spot is on the No. 4 line, where he and some two-way forwards could smash the soft parade—with Connor McDavid popping in for a guest appearance from time to time. The longer I stare at this for the RE, the more I wonder.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
- Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
- Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
- Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
THE TOP TWO LINES
My RE estimates have three constants (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge) and I started with three main wingers (Kassian, Chiasson, Neal). The issue for all three complementary wingers is this: The offense is inconsistent, in the case of Kassian and Chiasson less consistent than Gagner’s bat.
So, in constructing the even strength minutes for the Oilers team, I’ve arrived at eight wingers for the McDavid and Nuge lines. That’s double what you’d ideally have in a world where the team had true depth.
Here’s the thing: The up and coming talent is going to pass the veterans sooner than later. By that I mean Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody are more useful in skill situations than Zack Kassian and Alex Chiasson.
Gagner and James Neal might be the two men who push past the big wingers and the kid wingers to shine the brightest this winter. Markus Granlund and Joakim Nygard may also impact the top six forwards.
Chances are Dave Tippett is going to shuffle like crazy through the first 40 games, and we should be prepared for a “surprise” option emerging. Who? Ideally it’s Benson, Marody or another youngster. Right now, it’s a mess. By this time next year, the team should have some answers. Hopefully those answers are inexpensive and under control.
Revolved,
I agree that Kassian may not be the right guy though I am sure (barring a disappointing training camp) he will get first try. I was actually referring to keeping McD and Draisaitl together while Tippett solves the bottom 9. Also I am hoping they cut McD and Draisaitl ice time by 3-5 min per game. Overplaying them night after night is asking for a fatigue injury.
I’ll add that Neal changes the equation. We will likely see McD/ Draisaitl plus RNH/Neal to start but if Neal starts strong we could see McD/Neal and Draisaitl/RNH which would go a long way to solving our ‘1 line team’ problem and even out the playing time as well.
You can play around with it by date on natural stat trick, but it’s a bit of a bear. I’m on mobile at work sans wifi so I’m unable to look into it at the moment
GMB3,
If there’s a place to get WOWY data split in season, please let me know. I’d also like to look at how stable the lines were before vs after the coaching change.
I think McD and Drai both took a pretty big hit to the GF% with Hitchcock as coach. May be wrong, but I thought I found that looking deeper into the numbers
New for The Athletic: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
https://theathletic.com/1118770/2019/08/07/examining-the-potential-waiver-wire-opportunities-at-hand-for-the-oilers/
Sam who? We’re talking about Josh.
jeetz,
Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian had a 49.5% SF, and 54.8% GF. Given the talent there, I would call that disappointing as opposed to dominant. Draisaitl – McDavid were 57.6% GF without Kassian, so even if Tippett insists on running the big guns together, and it will probably be for 25 minutes a night again, I don’t think Kassian is the best right wing.
Scungilli Slushy,
If coaches are blending lines in order to force their players to act like robots, that is a despicable management strategy. I really hope that Tippett is more concerned with chemistry and getting groups to play the system together.
pts2pndr,
I agree that it is a rare talent to be able to see when players mesh, and then develop that relationship. However, in a salary cap league it might be the most valuable talent for a coach, as it allows those that can do it to get much more value out of players that are not elite.
I think keeping Kassian McD Draisaitl is the right thing to do. No need to change the scoring domination of the first line. Tippett’s #1 priority among the FWDs should be to increase GF and decrease GA with the bottom 9 without tampering with the top line. THAT makes the Oilers stronger. I would suggest that is Holland’s plan by the way he flooded the bottom 9 with potential players. It is up to Tippett to find the right 9 without compromising the development of our hopeful prospects.
I do not envy him one bit
Well, of course PP1 gets more time than PP2 and that’s OK if Nuge’s PP time is less than that of McDavid and Drai. Nuge is going to play on the PK much more than Leon and Drai and take a regular top 6 5 on 5 shift. He should play less on the PP.
Not to mention, there are a few ways to “skin the cat” – PP1 can change earlier but PP2 does not have to be a full new 5-man unitl – McDavid and/or Drai can stay on the ice for part of PP2 as well in a different set.
I agree, wins are what matters and team success is likely the best motivator for RNH resigning.
What I’m concerned about is the PP2 gets way less TOI than PP1. Nuge anchoring PP2 is great in theory, but if he’s getting 1 minute a game it’s pointless. And that’s likely in range with reality it seems.
Oilers forwards PP TOI/game (all types) last year, >20 total minutes:
McDavid 3:25
Draisaitl 3:20
Nuge 3:14
Chiasson 2:37
Strome 1:30 (18 games)
Lucic 1:20
Gagner 0:54 (25 games)
Rattie 0:53
Caggiula 0:44 (29 games)
Puljujarvi 0:26 (46 games)
Khaira 0:23
Rieder 0:22
Lucic and Chiasson split PP1 time, and Strome played less than a quarter of the season. So the Oilers actual PP2 got less than a minute a game. That would need to change before Nuge gets moved off the top unit IMO.
I think that was in reference to Archibald.
Yup. He has skill. The Oilers need skill. It could be cool.
Ryan,
In fairness, any bottom six player on a bad team will have crappy turtoros.
Nobody wanted chaiss last year and he scored 22 Mrs Debbie Downer.There’s a whole whack of
25-29 fringe players that are cheap can PK and score15-20 they’re out there why not Archibald
Sam had 8 years of NHL experience, therefore he was a UFA and not eligible for a qualifying offer.
Ryan,
I would be remiss if I did not reference the Tutoros in honor of Lead farmer, former lowetide poster.
I miss Lead farmer as he was quite a sensible and insightful poster.
Too bad Ricki called him an idiot and he hung up his login account.
The Tutoros don’t look good for Archibald or Granlund.
In fact, they look terrible. Not NHL caliber players by those metrics.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/vizhome/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard
You certainly are not wrong.
I some some ridiculous skill from Perfetti and Larierre already in the Hilinka.
For the lazy man’s advanced stats, there’s the Corsica player ratings.
Archibald has a rating of 71.2
That’s ahead of
– Chiasson
– Kassian
– Khaira
– Puljujarvi
– tied with Granlund
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations/
Revolved,
If available, I’d be curious to also see the correlation of injuries (man games lost) to line stability (and to winning).
One mans trash is another mans gold.
Me too OP, me too.
Ive been recording and watching most of the u20 and u18 games this summer, lots of exciting prospects to follow. Nice to have some sort of hockey fix in August.
There’s some really nice forward talent at the top of this year’s draft, and Brad Lambert is phenomenal at age 15 in the U18’s. Will push for #1 with local St. Albert kid Savoie and Shane Wright in 2022.
Perfetti, Byfield, and Lapierre are looking incredible for the Canadians too. This draft will be stacked with good forwards.
Bouchard’s ability to get his shot through is phenomenal and way superior to what Shultz was able to do. Shultz scored on a wrist shot once and the verbal took off.
I fully expect him to knock it out of the park in exhibition – I have little doubt he will.
I fully expect him to be assigned to the Bakersfield Condors notwithstanding such park knocking.
I would be very surprised if Bouchard was an Oiler for game 1.
We’ll find out in less than two months.
Having PP2 run through Nuge is in no way disrespecting the player and i doubt Nuge would feel disrespected and, if he does, well, if the deployment helps the team win games I would suggest that is not bad coaching.
Samorukov and Maksimov are the two Russian/Canadian wildcards for me. They’re both big, physical players who had dominant seasons and both have been reported as being defensively sound players. Both are quite physical and aggressive. Samurokov skating is top notch and Maksimov’s has reportedly improved a lot. I’m really looking forward to seeing how they fare in training camp and exhibition games. I think they might surprise and at least challenge for a roster spot. They already have the important tools that many prospects need to develop to make the show.
There are reasons to tune in each and every night for me – even if the season goes off the rails – not even the chance that McDavid will do something “McDavid-like” but watching all these youngsters play and grow (whoever is in the lineup), struggle and learn, etc. To watch how Nurse plays in his contract year and how he may look with a different partner. To watch a guy like Kahira develop in to a center or a middle winger or whatever the case may be.
Can’t wait for October 2 – shit, I can’t wait for the first rookie game against the flames.
Ok
To answer your question.
No we are all not in agreement
If he had an “NHL average” game he would have been qualified by Arizona. He wasn’t.
His qualifying amount was just over league minimum and they chose to let him walk. Telling, IMO.
Schultz was a paradoxical player.
He could skate the puck up the ice somewhat like Nurse, pass well in the offensive zone…
But he couldn’t make a first pass to save his life.
Bouchard looks surprisingly like Schultz in terms of physical appearance.
Bouchard can make a first pass.
I also thought Schultz would be a crackerjack on the PP he had that sneaky wrist shot same as Bouchard but what I’ve seen of Bouchard he gets it of faster and it’s quicker makes it to net where a lot of Schultz shots were blocked and cleared out which killed the PP.
If Bouchard knocks it out of the park I believe Tippett has him running the D on PP1 to start the year. Bouchard reminds me of a better version of Keith Yandle who played for Tippett a point producing machine on the PP. Top 3-5 PP top 12-15 PK no first shot curse Talbot = playoffs.
Jordan
Sorry I offended. McLelland played the switcharoo with the Sharks. Got him fired.
From what I’ve read the blender is about getting players to play the system. If you’re line mates constantly change theoretically the players have to play the system because they don’t know tendencies.
A few of you here have commented that you do or have been turnaround specialists, fixing bad situations etc. Perhaps those of you would agree that the skill set is very different than managing a functional environment.
McLellan is a ‘good’ coach, as is Hitch. I have no reason to think that they had the right skill sets for the Oilers. I think that after trying reasonable measures such as spending extra time with Jesse ( which I don’t think is really any extraordinary thing for a coach to do especially with a 4 OV pick on a train wreck of a team) Todd got frustrated and was out of answers.
Having the moxy to coach at that level is different than being exceptionally skilled, as I feel Trotz is having turned two teams around in consecutive seasons winning a Cup, Nashville’s issues being the GMs failings IMO.
To me Tippet is more from the Trotz tree than the Babcock McLellan tree. Less grumpy perhaps.
I also am of the opinion that the Oilers ‘don’t ‘ lack talent as much as the chaos of the team
repeatedly torpedoes players. We’ve seen far too many, such as Reider.
As simple as it is, Holland talking about stability and being able to model it day in and out will make a big difference. If he is cagey he can add a few key but lesser pieces and have a juggernaut. But at the least I believe he will make a perennial contender, and that’s something, especially for us.
Stability will show on a better culture we see by how the players seem and how they stay mentally in the season win or lose. No more of 50% of the team checking out after some duress.
Or excuses. The bad apple spoils the barrel, Connor saw that and called it. All in or all out.
Perfect. I expect a much more fun season and better results simply from less histrionics and own foot shooting.
If the penalty is drawn by the Mcdavid line then probably Nuge’s gang gets first crack. With Leon and Neal as shooters and a D man Bouchard or Persson that can straddle the line think fast and not fumble and bumble the puck so the PKers get set. No surprise for me if it’s a top 3-5 Powerplay which translates into playoffs which Nuge referred to in his exit interview.
This Would not make you a good coach. How would you feel and or react if someone told you F U I don’t care what you think. You better be a great poker player if you use that approach. A hockey player is first and foremost a person and deserving of respect. Treat him that way and like most people you would be amazed at the results.
Despite this looking like another season of despair, there are really some great storylines to look forward to this season.
After excellent rookie campaigns in the AHL, both Marody and Benson will be pushing for NHL time all year. It will be very interesting to follow their progress. If the repeat the success of last season, both will be looking like bonafide options for the big club come December (if neither of them break the team out of camp).
Benson was viewed as a guy who could of been a top ten pick after his first season in the dub, he has a lot of talent, but lost a lot of key development time during his junior career. By all accounts, he has a great hockey iq and work ethic, and I think those are the two things vital to overcoming slow boots in the NHL.
Jones, Lagesson, Bear, and Persson have all shown a ton of growth at the pro level. I’m looking forward to seeing who shakes out as the most impactful player out of the bunch, and I hope Edmonton keeps the right guy(s).
Samorukov and Bouchard are coming off great years in junior and dominant playoff performances. They could end up being an exciting pairing to watch in the AHL.
After McLeod and Maksimovs rookie AHL seasons we should have a better idea of where they stand as prospects
Stats and numbers are part of the overall info available. To ignore this is in my opinion folly as in the Ostrich syndrome. To use only numbers is the 180 and also wrong. They both have value and to exclude either is very shortsighted. How to weight both appropriately is the question. This is where experience, interviewing etc fill in the picture.
I was using total PK minutes, but yeah, huge swings year to year.
McDavid 17-18
90 min
41.3 SA/60 (2nd of 9 Oilers >45 min)
51.9 SCA/60 (6th of 9)
6.7 GA/60 (4th of 9)
6.47 xGA/60 (2nd of 9)
McDavid 18-19
49 min
42.7 SA/60 (1st of 7 Oilers)
36.6 SCA/60 (1st of 7)
12.2 GA/60 (7th of 7)
5.17 xGA/60 (1st of 7)
The xGA seems way more consistent than actual GA
Thanks
I’m not concerned about Nuge’s feelings – I’m concerned about winning hockey games.
Yes, winning hockey games would be a positive factor in his willingness to re-sign.
McLellan played switcharoo with the Sharks. Got him a ticket out of town.
I tweeted about this a while back. Imperfect player, but a much higher pedigree as a scorer than any forward but the big 3 (and Neal I suppose)
It could be but it would be unlikely, in my opinion. It goes against the verbal from the GM (expressly and specifically listing Bouchard as an example of a prospect that should be given AHL time and not rushed to the NHL), and it would somewhat disregard the two plus years of pro of four prospects where arguments can be made the player may be NHL ready, a few of which have similar skill-sets.
Even the removal of one of the d-men above wouldn’t really change this.
Holland is cleary looking beyond this season with the primary goal of building a champion and I think he’s going to be risk adverse with his most important prospect.
I hear so many people hate on corsi, arguing it has no value. but then proclaim “wow Edmonton is getting outshot by 20, they are sure getting outplayed”.
Do you think Nuge would be happy with the scraps left over from Mcdavid and Drai on pp1.
Thought I heard Tippett say he plans on upping their pp mins.
That might leave Nuge 30sec on average if he is lucky.
I know if I was the 3rd best player on the team that would chap my ass.
Munny,
I’ve always found the “anti-stats” stance bizarre. My two favourite stats are goals and wins.
One can choose to view stats as simple or complex as one is personally inclined. But everyone cares about stats to some degree, and to claim otherwise is (IMO) overlooking the basics.
Could be sooner than you think. I’m still sticking to JP plus a D on the roster or a D prospect for a serviceable player before the season starts.
pts2pndr,
He’s been around for quite some time, posts rarely, but some times in bursts… and has always been anti-stats. Which is of course bizarre. Who prefers less information, not more, and less objectivity, not more? But to each their own.