So long and thanks for all the fish

Jesse Puljujarvi signed in Finland today, it’s one of those deals that (like Stanfield’s long underwear) has an escape hatch that allows him to sign in the NHL until December 1.

I think this is an attractive situation for both player and team. JP can settle in and play a season where he’s comfortable, and the Oilers aren’t forced into a trade that returns 10 cents on the dollar. There are roster spots where the young Finn scored enough to stay in the lineup but there’s something about that situation that lacked sustain. Perhaps Dave Tippett could have found a way, perhaps he will at another time.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • **New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • **New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • **New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

CURRENT 50-MAN (47)

There are two slides (Broberg and Rodrigue) and RFA Jesse Puljujarvi, meaning the team has three spots open if nothing changes. I think we’ll see at least one acquisition before or during training camp.

This is a satisfactory outcome. Maybe Holland can fly over around Christmas and talk to the young man, start to build a bridge. I know many of you are down on Puljujarvi but for me there’s no good reason to trade him at this time.

Puljujarvi struggled in many areas a year ago but he has one specific spot where he can thrive. Here, again, are the five-on-five per 60 scoring numbers by Edmonton’s wingers with McDavid in 2018-19:

Leon Draisaitl 3.35 (805 minutes)

Drake Caggiula 2.54 (141 minutes)

Zack Kassian 1.96 (428 minutes)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.91 (376 minutes)

Milan Lucic 1.83 (98 minutes)

Jesse Puljujarvi 1.80 (67 minutes)

Ty Rattie 1.72 (244 minutes)

Alex Chiasson 1.48 (284 minutes)

Jujhar Khaira 0.93 (64 minutes)

Kailer Yamamoto 0.00 (84 minutes)

For his brief career so far, JP scores 2.06 per 60 at five-on-five when playing with Connor McDavid, and the duo drills opponents at 55 percent Corsi for five-on-five. I don’t know why the math loves their chemistry while there was apparently none in real life, but it is clear the young Finn wasn’t going to be gifted the world’s best center and we are here.

So long and thanks for all the fish

I sincerely hope Jesse Puljujarvi finds his way, first in Finland and then in the NHL. He is looking for his own place in the sun, you can’t blame a man for being restless to find home. Sail on, Kajaanin Hokki, you came to us in a time of great confusion. Don’t you dare let this experience define you. Keep smiling, big man. We won’t forget you.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, a whole lotta shakin’ going on, TSN1260. The Puljujarvi news will dominate the conversation, with Jonathan Willis from The Athletic chiming in on the breaking news. Andrew Peard will also be around to talk Edmonton Oil Kings as we get ready for another season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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156 Responses to "So long and thanks for all the fish"

  1. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Sad that it has come to this.
    Hope JP gets it together.
    Hope the Oilers learn how to develop skilled draft picks.
    Hope Trump gets abducted by aliens.

  2. jp says:

    Yup, too damn bad. Hope it works out for the player and the team in the end.

  3. PennersPancakes says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    Somehow the third option seems the most realistic. Heres hoping theres something better in the water in Oulu. Good luck Pulju

  4. frjohnk says:

    Over 3 years, ( 406 minutes) JP had 6 goals and 8 assists when on the ice with McDavid.

    Cagguila, Rattie, Kassian, Yak, Pouliot, these are other guys in the JP realm in which McDavid dragged a non top 6 player and got them to score at a near 1st line pace.

    JP had something like near 90% of his time in the NHL with McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl or Strome as his center. If this is not the best center group in the NHL to start an NHL career with, I dont know what is.

    I dont believe that “JP could score with skill” it was more that “the skill could make JP score”

    And really that “skill” was only McDavid.

    JP scored 1.48 pts/60 with Drai
    1.05 with RNH
    0.98 with Strome

    Looking back its clear that his WJC performance was buoyed by playing Aho and Laine , while his scoring stats in Finish league were more Joel Armia than they were Alexander Barkov.

    This team really needed to have JP hit, but he is now in the Yak pile.

  5. Professor Q says:

    I mean, who are the real “poorly developed skill players” in Oilers’ history to truly deserve that League-wide perception?

    Puljujärvi (a lot is on him)
    Yakupov (maybe yes, maybe no)
    Gagner (only partially)
    Bosignore?

  6. Andy Dufresne says:

    frjohnk:
    Over 3 years, ( 406 minutes) JP had 6 goals and 8 assists when on the ice with McDavid.

    Cagguila, Rattie, Kassian, Yak, Pouliot, these are other guys in the JP realm in which McDavid dragged a non top 6 player and got them to score at a near 1st line pace.

    JP had something like near 90% of his time in the NHL with McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl or Strome as his center.If this is not the best center group in the NHL to start an NHL career with, I dont know what is.

    I dont believe that “JP could score with skill” it was more that “the skill could make JP score”

    And really that “skill” was only McDavid.

    JP scored 1.48 pts/60 with Drai
    1.05 with RNH
    0.98 with Strome

    Looking back its clear that his WJC performance was buoyed by playing Aho and Laine , while his scoring stats in Finish league were more Joel Armia than they were Alexander Barkov.

    This team really needed to have JP hit, but he is now in the Yak pile.

    +1 Well said.

  7. Side says:

    Professor Q:
    I mean, who are the real “poorly developed skill players” in Oilers’ history to truly deserve that League-wide perception?

    Puljujärvi (a lot is on him)
    Yakupov (maybe yes, maybe no)
    Gagner (only partially)
    Bosignore?

    I think it’s misconception. Imo, the Oilers problem is they do develop players well, but then often give them away for no real good reason and for a shitty return.

  8. Offside says:

    I’m torn on JP. On one hand I hope it all works out for him. None of us knows exactly what happened. Clearly he feels the problems (or people) he had issues with are still there. On the other hand, I am from the school of thought that believes perseverance can be a blessing in that it builds character and resolve. Running to Finland (even for less pay) because you feel it will help your career might work out, but I don’t think it shows the leadership one will want to cultivate as a high draft pick and pro athlete. He has the skills for a long career. There was no need to take this drastic of a measure at this early age – especially to a team and fanbase that could really use his skillset

  9. Andy Dufresne says:

    Professor Q: Puljujärvi (a lot is on him)
    Yakupov (maybe yes, maybe no)
    Gagner (only partially)
    Marc Antoine Pouliot?

    FTFY.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Well, I guess I’ve officially given up on Jesse deciding to sign with the Oilers, come to camp and work his ass off – at least for this year.

    Can we officially remove him from the 50? Just kidding, kind of.

    ———————————————————

    Looks like I have another team overseas to follow this year – looking forward to seeing how he does.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    One cool thing to keep an eye on – the Champions League.

    Of course, S. Poster can provide more information on exactly how this tournament works but Skellefteå is confirmed and I think they play their first game this coming Friday and I think they are scheduled for two games against Karpat – Broberg/Berglund vs. Puljujarvi.

    Going to have to try and find a stream for some of these games.

  12. Jethro Tull says:

    Oh dear LT. What a missed opportunity.

    You could have had:

    Magic Karpat Ride
    Karpat Tunnel Syndrome
    Fin(n)?
    So Suomi

  13. Andy Dufresne says:

    I think the role of Agents in all these cases is under-estimated / under-reported.

    These kids are getting BAD advice.

    Often times they have Agents who are one man shows / small firms, who are looking to strike it rich with their one big / legit prospect.

    Its like taking on a Financial Advisor who runs a small firm (independent) because he can give you more time / more personalized service. DONT DO IT!

  14. Bag of Pucks says:

    Sounds like the perfect destination for his English to improve😒

    I hope he lights it up enough so we can trade him for a 3C or RHD

  15. jp says:

    Ricki’s been telling us lately that passing doesn’t matter (not quite, but he’s laser focused on EVG). He’s right to an extent, most everyone agrees that a goal is worth more than an assist, but of course goal scorers don’t score without help.

    Anyway, he’s got something of a point in telling us that the Oilers are 4 lines deep in scorers when you look at it. He’s cherry picking some of his numbers (Jurco) but the Oilers current collection of players really do have surprisingly good goal scoring numbers compared to what’s commonly acknowledged.

    EVG/60 for NHL forwards >500 minutes this past season:
    1) Viktor Arvidsson 2.01
    93) Alex Tuch 0.97
    186) Jonathan Drouin 0.74
    279) Tyler Motte 0.52
    366-369) Nichushkin, our friend Toby Rieder and Alex Wennbers (more minutes than Rieder without an EVG!)

    So:
    1st line rate >0.97
    2nd line rate 0.97-0.74
    3rd line rate 0.74-0.52
    4th line rate <0.52

    How do current Oilers stack up in EVG/60 over the past 3 seasons (the usual caveats apply here, some players will outperform their own history, others will underperform, but this is what happened)

    McDavid 1.27
    Draisaitl 1.00
    ———————
    Nuge 0.91
    Neal 0.89
    Archibald 0.83
    ———————
    Chiasson 0.73 (0.69 and 0.73 pre McDavid, 0.78 in 18-19)
    Granlund 0.72
    Kassian 0.63 (0.48, 0.56 and 0.79)
    Gagner 0.58
    Khaira 0.58
    Brodziak 0.58
    ———————
    Puljujarvi 0.52

    ** tiny samples**
    Jurco 0.64
    Cave 0.30

    No surprise that things are a little lean at the top, but the 3rd and 4th lines should be populated by players who have a history of scoring at 3rd line rates at even strength.

    I dunno, I'm filing this as another reason for a little cautious optimism. I really do believe the bottom 6 will be much improved this season if nothing else.

    And hell, 6 current Oilers actually scored even strength goals at top 6 rates last season. Huh.

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    I sincerely hope that JP lights it up in Europe and gets back on a solid career trajectory.

    Having said that, this is the best possible outcome. JP gets a chance to increase his value AND Dave Tippett has one less locker room distraction to deal with.

    The absence of Lucic and JP make this a more unified room imo.

    ( especially if Tippett can effectively manage the personalities of Smith and Neal)

  17. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, S. Poster can provide more information on exactly how this tournament works but Skellefteå is confirmed and I think they play their first game this coming Friday and I think they are scheduled for two games against Karpat – Broberg/Berglund vs. Puljujarvi.

    Going to have to try and find a stream for some of these games..

    If you find the stream, please post!

  18. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Professor Q:
    I mean, who are the real “poorly developed skill players” in Oilers’ history to truly deserve that League-wide perception?

    Puljujärvi (a lot is on him)
    Yakupov (maybe yes, maybe no)
    Gagner (only partially)
    Bosignore?

    The Oilers drafted #1 overall (2012-YAK) and #4 overall (2016-JP) and both picks have essentially been flushed down the toilet and out to sea. Even though there was some consensus on BPA from scouting etc and that some of this is on the players themselves, the Oilers’ scouting staff needs to be more dialed in to players that “might not fit”, despite BPA rankings before they go running up to the podium. Such a drafting and development history does not translate well to on-ice success and is unsustainable. I think however, with the new Sheriff in town, these whiffs are not going to happen.

  19. ArmchairGM says:

    “Jesse Puljujarvi signed in Finland today, it’s one of those deals that (like Stanfield’s long underwear) has an escape hatch… ”

    ROFL!

  20. Dr. Taboggan says:

    How much has missing on top 10 picks hurt the Oilers? Gagner, Paajarvi, RNH (good player but certainly not 1st overall talent), Yak and now JP.

    Just awful.

  21. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Oh dear LT.What a missed opportunity.

    You could have had:

    Magic Karpat Ride
    Karpat Tunnel Syndrome
    Fin(n)?
    So Suomi

    Excellent.

  22. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Well, I guess I’ve officially given up on Jesse deciding to sign with the Oilers, come to camp and work his ass off – at least for this year.

    Can we officially remove him from the 50? Just kidding, kind of.
    ———————————————————
    Looks like I have another team overseas to follow this year – looking forward to seeing how he does.

    Yes.

    Also, FTR, I am very pleased with this. We know where he is now and we know that place is good for him, we know he won’t be here, and – given that knowledge – we know there will be one fewer training camp distractions.

    All good imo.

  23. YKOil says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Oh dear LT.What a missed opportunity. You could have had:

    Magic Karpat Ride
    Karpat Tunnel Syndrome
    Fin(n)?
    So Suomi

    Pure awesome.

  24. Andy Dufresne says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: The Oilers drafted #1 overall (2012-YAK) and #4 overall (2016-JP) and both picks have essentially been flushed down the toilet and out to sea. Even though there was some consensus on BPA from scouting etc and that some of this is on the players themselves, the Oilers’ scouting staff needs to be more dialed in to players that “might not fit”, despite BPA rankings before they go running up to the podium. Such a drafting and development history does not translate well to on-ice success and is unsustainable. I think however, with the new Sheriff in town, these whiffs are not going to happen.

    I’ve been saying this since we drafted McDavid; When you have a couple of super-star talents like McDavid and Draisaitl, a different kind of risk assessement needs to enter your Draft calculus.

    You no longer need to take chances (like you would if you felt you were way behind or were operating at a dis-advantage like being small market team)

    You no longer need to hit home runs at the draft; You simply need to not completely whiff. You already have your built in competetive advantage with the dynamic duo.

    So, BPA wherein, if two players are ranked within a few spots of each other. Take the guy with the skillset that is most likley to be an NHL player over the guy with the “perceived / potential” upside.

    Take Bouchard over Whalstrom or Dobson.
    Take Broberg over Zegras
    etc

    Could Zegras pop and turn into a top line Center. Maybe. But its a riskier proposition than hoping Broberg is a top 4 Dman at the NHL level.

  25. dustrock says:

    Always felt both Yakupov and Puljujarvi were pretty good with the puck on their sticks, terrible at finding space without the puck.

    Would be flabbergasted if Puljujarvi lights up the Finnish Elite League. He’s strong and fast and skilled enough that he’ll do fine, i just don’t think he has the toolbox to dominate.

    I’ll be very happy to be proven wrong.

  26. Munny says:

    frjohnk:
    Over 3 years, ( 406 minutes) JP had 6 goals and 8 assists when on the ice with McDavid.

    Cagguila, Rattie, Kassian, Yak, Pouliot, these are other guys in the JP realm in which McDavid dragged a non top 6 player and got them to score at a near 1st line pace.

    JP had something like near 90% of his time in the NHL with McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl or Strome as his center.If this is not the best center group in the NHL to start an NHL career with, I dont know what is.

    I dont believe that “JP could score with skill” it was more that “the skill could make JP score”

    And really that “skill” was only McDavid.

    JP scored 1.48 pts/60 with Drai
    1.05 with RNH
    0.98 with Strome

    Looking back its clear that his WJC performance was buoyed by playing Aho and Laine , while his scoring stats in Finish league were more Joel Armia than they were Alexander Barkov.

    This team really needed to have JP hit, but he is now in the Yak pile.

    Dead on.

  27. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    One cool thing to keep an eye on – the Champions League.

    Of course, S. Poster can provide more information on exactly how this tournament works but Skellefteå is confirmed and I think they play their first game this coming Friday and I think they are scheduled for two games against Karpat – Broberg/Berglund vs. Puljujarvi.

    Going to have to try and find a stream for some of these games.

    It’s sad that Bury is going away. I don’t pay a lot of attention to The Football League but I catch a game here or there and look up news every so often.

    Let’s hope an investor likes the history of the club and decides to make them the new Rangers by bringing them back, starting at the bottom.

  28. jp says:

    Just had a look at the Pronman rankings. Impressive to see the Oilers move up from 22 last year to #9.

    Lots of positive words about the young guys, but he doesn’t seem to think much of Nygard or Persson. Not convinced they’re NHL quality in any capacity, much less in prominent roles.

    I’d also have thought Kesserling deserved a brief mention, huge, good skater and a little offense. An intriguing follow into college IMO.

  29. dustrock says:

    also kudos to the Oilers for going from #22 in Pronman’s 2018 farm rankings to #9.

  30. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Andy Dufresne: The absence of Lucic and JP make this a more unified room imo.

    I think this “addition by subtraction” + the modest improvements in bottom 6, could prove to be a pleasant surprise = strong, consistent, competitive team play

  31. jp says:

    dustrock:
    Always felt both Yakupov and Puljujarvi were pretty good with the puck on their sticks, terrible at finding space without the puck.

    Would be flabbergasted if Puljujarvi lights up the Finnish Elite League.He’s strong and fast and skilled enough that he’ll do fine, i just don’t think he has the toolbox to dominate.

    I’ll be very happy to be proven wrong.

    I’m curious what you mean by light up.

    I agree there’s a good chance he won’t dominate but it would be cool to know what people’s expectations/predictions are.

  32. Professor Q says:

    jp:
    Just had a look at the Pronman rankings. Impressive to see the Oilers move up from 22 last year to #9.

    Lots of positive words about the young guys, but he doesn’t seem to think much of Nygard or Persson. Not convinced they’re NHL quality in any capacity, much less in prominent roles.

    I’d also have thought Kesserling deserved a brief mention, huge, good skater and a little offense. An intriguing follow into college IMO.

    And didn’t mention a word about the injuries of Safin (ranked quite low), which caused said disappointing year (though he never recovered in the stretch and playoffs, so that sucks too), while giving Benson a pass for his injuries in his last few WHL years.

    And despite his praise for Bouchard, it still has a sense of being reluctant. He does have a lot of love for Konovolov, so here’s hoping his KHL numbers eventually translate well to Edmonton.

    I think I have a lot of hope for these guys. They’re going to surprise us in Bakersfield. Sure, we’ve been disappointed before, but it only takes one time to flip the script.

  33. Munny says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Oh dear LT.What a missed opportunity.

    You could have had:

    Magic Karpat Ride
    Karpat Tunnel Syndrome
    Fin(n)?
    So Suomi

    You karpatbagger. 😉

  34. John Chambers says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Oh dear LT.What a missed opportunity.

    You could have had:

    Magic Karpat Ride
    Karpat Tunnel Syndrome
    Fin(n)?
    So Suomi

    Amazing.

    Karpat diem, Jesse!

  35. Munny says:

    Professor Q,

    Shakers will become Trotters.

    C’mon you Whites!

  36. jp says:

    Professor Q: And didn’t mention a word about the injuries of Safin (ranked quite low), which caused said disappointing year (though he never recovered in the stretch and playoffs, so that sucks too), while giving Benson a pass for his injuries in his last few WHL years.
    And despite his praise for Bouchard, it still has a sense of being reluctant. He does have a lot of love for Konovolov, so here’s hoping his KHL numbers eventually translate well to Edmonton.
    I think I have a lot of hope for these guys. They’re going to surprise us in Bakersfield. Sure, we’ve been disappointed before, but it only takes one time to flip the script.

    He didn’t mention the Safin injuries, but did keep him as a prospect worth talking about. I’m pretty down on Safin to be honest, draft +1 was just OK (not quite a PPG in the Q) and this past year was terrible, even accounting for the injuries (23-0-2-2 in the playoffs). I hope his tools can get him back on track, but I’m not holding a lot of hope, JMO.

    I should read the comments too, where you mentioned he was very cool on Bouchard.

    Regardless, the pipeline looks good and hopefully starts producing quality NHL players real soon.

  37. Munny says:

    jp: I agree there’s a good chance he won’t dominate but it would be cool to know what people’s expectations/predictions are.

    I’d say it’s about 50-50 on whether he plays in the NHL over the next 5 years. That’s just an opinion, of course.

    That no-NHL path could come from poor performance, or no reasonable trade materializing, or from Jesse pulling the plug himself.

    If he wants stardom with the least amount of effort and no requirement to learn English, then Europe is the place for him.

    I think it would take an exceptional year in Finland to overcome the risk GMs will see associated with him.

    I think stubborn people are unlikely to change their mind about returning to their former club (his easiest path back). He’s young and thus mercurial, so not exactly a safe bet in this regard, but if his character holds true, his time with the Oil is Finnit.

  38. Professor Q says:

    Munny:
    Professor Q,

    Shakers will become Trotters.

    C’mon you Whites!

    Do you mean both teams will be expelled and folded today? Because that would suck. It would be the loss of a lot of history. I know the Rangers came back and had to go through the ringer, but are effectively a “different” team (and well, like I said, I don’t keep too apprised so they were the only high-profile team that I knew of).

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I’m curious what you mean by light up.

    I agree there’s a good chance he won’t dominate but it would be cool to know what people’s expectations/predictions are.

    I’d like to see point-per-game with at least 0.4 goals-per-game. Anything approaching these numbers would constitute “lighting it up” and “dominating” the league, at which point I think his trade value skyrockets up to mid-1st round pick status. A Jean-Luc Foudy pick in the 2020 draft would be welcome.

  40. HT Joe says:

    frjohnk: This team really needed to have JP hit, but he is now in the Yak pile.

    He’s not in the Yak pile for me… I’m still cheering for Yak.

  41. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    I sincerely hope that JP lights it up in Europe and gets back on a solid career trajectory.

    Having said that, this is the best possible outcome. JP gets a chance to increase his value AND Dave Tippett has one less locker room distraction to deal with.

    The absence of Lucic and JP make this a more unified room imo.

    ( especially if Tippett can effectively manage the personalities of Smith and Neal)

    I see a much tighter group this year lots of players on one year and final year contracts. I don’t care what anyone says most players play hungrier on final year contracts. With Jesse and Lucic gone there should be less drama as well. Both Neal and Smith played under Tippett and both probably owe a great deal towards him for the opportunities and ending up being highly successful players.

  42. McNuge93 says:

    ArmchairGM: I’d like to see point-per-game with at least 0.4 goals-per-game. Anything approaching these numbers would constitute “lighting it up” and “dominating” the league, at which point I think his trade value skyrockets up to mid-1st round pick status. A Jean-Luc Foudy pick in the 2020 draft would be welcome.

    We need a reverse NHLE for that Finnish league.

  43. Munny says:

    Professor Q,

    I mean Bury FC fans will make the pilgrimage to the Reebok for their footie fix. It’s an old rivalry, but has to be more palatable than becoming a Red Devil.

  44. Yeti says:

    Pronman’s review of Oiler prospects is very interesting … and contentious.
    He really doesn’t rate Lagesson very highly (sorry OP) and suggests that both Persson and Nygard are very much outside bets to be NHL worthy players. It’s definitely makes sobering reading for those actively pencilling Persson in for the 2RD position…
    On the plus side, he’s more positive about Benson and Marody for the year ahead. And he loves Broberg.

    [Edit: What JP (no, not that JP) said]

  45. Munny says:

    jp: And hell, 6 current Oilers actually scored even strength goals at top 6 rates last season. Huh.

    With Granlund missing by a hair on his 3 yr average, and Kassian managing it when slotted into the top 6.

  46. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    HT Joe: He’s not in the Yak pile for me… I’m still cheering for Yak.

    +1.

  47. jp says:

    Munny: I’d say it’s about 50-50 on whether he plays in the NHL over the next 5 years.That’s just an opinion, of course.

    That no-NHL path could come from poor performance, or no reasonable trade materializing, or from Jesse pulling the plug himself.

    If he wants stardom with the least amount of effort and no requirement to learn English, then Europe is the place for him.

    I think it would take an exceptional year in Finland to overcome the risk GMs will see associated with him.

    I think stubborn people are unlikely to change their mind about returning to their former club (his easiest path back). He’s young and thus mercurial, so not exactly a safe bet in this regard, but if his character holds true, his time with the Oil is Finnit.

    I think it’s >80% that he comes back to the NHL if only briefly like Nichushkin (also JMO).

    His skill package and pedigree should afford at least 1 more NHL opinion. And if he posts mediocre numbers the price tag goes down, making a trade easier to make in a way.

  48. Professor Q says:

    Munny:
    Professor Q,

    I mean Bury FC fans will make the pilgrimage to the Reebok for their footie fix.It’s an old rivalry, but has to be more palatable than becoming a Red Devil.

    Ah, I see. But Bolton is also in the same situation as Bury so I guess if either one of them survives today, the fans could support their “brethren”. I need to learn this slang if I’m to get more into football. :p

  49. geowal says:

    Damn, this is going to significantly affect the wife’s willingness to watch hockey with me/tolerance of me watching hockey.

    Also, I’d give the Oilers partial credit for screwing up Justin Schultz (even though they didn’t draft him). He was a mess when Pittsburgh got him, and essentially had to rebuild him.

  50. Melvis says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Oh dear LT.What a missed opportunity.

    You could have had:

    Magic Karpat Ride
    Karpat Tunnel Syndrome
    Fin(n)?
    So Suomi

    Oy…an’ a tip o’ the peaky blinder t’ya.

  51. blainer says:

    This is great news for JP. Stay home and grow up. Unfortunately it’s three years too late.

    I bet he still doesn’t make the effort to learn decent enough English and also think he will need to set records in that league to garner serious interest from NHL GM’s. At least he would have to if I were a GM.

    The upside is this is the best option for him to get his shit together and really believe this kid still has a 16 year old mind. IMO he will need a minimum of a year but realistically two years over there to get to a point GM’s will take notice.

    Here’s to hoping he knocks it out of the park over there.

    Hat’s off to a patient Holland on his handling of this so far.

    Really happy he is out of our dressing room too !!

  52. JJS says:

    blainer:
    This is great news for JP. Stay home and grow up. Unfortunately it’s three years too late.

    I bet he still doesn’t make the effort to learn decent enough English and also think he will need to set records in that league to garner serious interest from NHL GM’s. At least he would have to if I were a GM.

    The upside is this is the best option for him to get his shit together and really believe this kid still has a 16 year old mind. IMO he will need a minimum of a year but realistically two years over there to get to a point GM’s will take notice.

    Here’s to hoping he knocks it out of the park over there.

    Hat’s off to a patient Holland on his handling of this so far.

    Really happy he is out of our dressing room too !!

    Agreed in that we should be cheering like mad for him to sort it out ASAP. He remains a valuable asset.

  53. Munny says:

    Professor Q,

    Desperate times, but there has been some interest in purchasing the Wanderers, from two parties I believe, so more hope than there is for Bury. Should know in a couple of hours or by tomorrow morning at the latest.

  54. Woogie63 says:

    What kind of points will Jesse have to put up in this league to prove he can play top 6 on a good NHL team?

    There are more scenarios that prove he is not an NHL ready player than he is.

    Big, Big gamble from an agent on this young man.

  55. Munny says:

    jp: His skill package and pedigree should afford at least 1 more NHL opinion.

    That’s where my 50 percent comes from.

    I don’t think GMs doubt his package, however. He now has a reputation for being wilfull, difficult, uncoachable, unwilling to put in the necessary effort to grow and succeed, etc…

    These are the things this season has to overcome. That would take either an exceptional scoring season, or a complete change of heart by Jesse, and that change of heart being credibly communicated across the ocean.

    In fact, by not returning to the Oilers, and signing with the Karpat, he’s demonstrating to the other orgs that these things are still an issue.

    But as you say, we could see such a reduction in trade value that someone will take a flyer. …If Holland is willing to trade a 1st round selection for a 4th or a 5th round pick.

  56. Munny says:

    Woogie63: There are more scenarios that prove he is not an NHL ready player than he is.

    This is my belief too.

  57. Munny says:

    Heponiemi, drafted 2nd Round in 2017, the year after Pujo, went 50 gp 16-30-46 with Karpat last year. their second best point-getter. Heponiemi is expected to spend some time in Springfield, and is on track to develop into a 2nd line center.

    Hepo came over and spent two years with the WHL Broncos as a teen, then played his first year of pro last season for Karpat. He’s a titch of a thing, needs to add some bulk, likely the main reason for the year in the Liiga.

    Pujo needs to post better numbers than Heponiemi. While rehabilitating his reputation.

  58. Reja says:

    JJS: Agreed in that we should be cheering like mad for him to sort it out ASAP. He remains a valuable asset.

    Fitch, Moody’s and S&P as of this morning has downgraded Jesse as a valuable asset to just asset

  59. Munny says:

    Holland:

    “I don’t know that him signing in Finland has a huge effect on the situation,” Holland said on Tuesday morning, adding that is better for everyone that Puljujarvi is playing somewhere rather than holding out. “I’ve had conversations with numerous clubs that have had interest, some interest, in acquiring Jesse. And I have had, probably in the last 10 days, two or three new teams reach out to me. Teams whose positions have changed, and are checking into the Puljujarvi situation.

    “I’ll do a deal if I feel good that I’m making a deal in the best interests of the Edmonton Oilers.”

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: If you find the stream, please post!

    Will do.

  61. Yeti says:

    Reja: Fitch, Moody’s and S&P as of this morning has downgraded Jesse as a valuable asset to just asset

    There’s a lot of people around here who have (unfairly) downgraded him from asset to just ass.
    But let’s hope he’s now on an upward trajectory. That said, part of me wishes he’d gone to the KHL as it might have been more beneficial for both his hockey abilities and accumulation of life experience. Karpat is the ultimate convenience destination whereas Jokerit or a Russian club would have been a sterner test and development opportunity.

  62. jp says:

    Munny: That’s where my 50 percent comes from.

    I don’t think GMs doubt his package, however.He now has a reputation for being wilfull, difficult, uncoachable, unwilling to put in the necessary effort to grow and succeed, etc…

    These are the things this season has to overcome.That would take either an exceptional scoring season, or a complete change of heart by Jesse, and that change of heart being credibly communicated across the ocean.

    In fact, by not returning to the Oilers, and signing with the Karpat, he’s demonstrating to the other orgs that these things are still an issue.

    But as you say, we could see such a reduction in trade value that someone will take a flyer. …If Holland is willing to trade a 1st round selection for a 4th or a 5th round pick.

    High picks get way more chances than they deserve (not saying Puljujarvi doesn’t or won’t deserve). I’d be very surprised if we don’t see him back in the NHL but only time will tell for sure. The Oilers own a chunk of this situation, other GMs will factor that too IMO.

  63. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I’d like to see point-per-game with at least 0.4 goals-per-game. Anything approaching these numbers would constitute “lighting it up” and “dominating” the league, at which point I think his trade value skyrockets up to mid-1st round pick status. A Jean-Luc Foudy pick in the 2020 draft would be welcome.

    Agreed that would constitute dominant. Only 2 players managed a PPG in Liiga last season (tough league), so a bit shy of a PPG might be reasonable, and not actually a down arrow. It would be great for all involved if he can lay waste to the league.

  64. Munny says:

    jp,

    My fingers are crossed.

    jp,

    As another reference… Aho went 45gp 20-25-45 playing for Karpat at 18 years old.

  65. Reja says:

    August 27th, 1992
    Oilers trade Vincent Damphouse and 1993 4th round pick (#85 Adam Wiesel) for Shayne Corson, Brent Gilchrist and Vladimir Vujtek.

  66. ArmchairGM says:

    McNuge93: We need a reverse NHLE for that Finnishleague.

    We’ll call it Jesse-E!

  67. Munny says:

    Spector on ON:

    Believes it will take at least a 2nd rounder + prospect to acquire Pujo.

  68. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Professor Q:
    I mean, who are the real “poorly developed skill players” in Oilers’ history to truly deserve that League-wide perception?

    Puljujärvi (a lot is on him)
    Yakupov (maybe yes, maybe no)
    Gagner (only partially)
    Bosignore?

    The common denominator with the top 3 is a lack of due diligence in the scouting process.

    Yak and JP are odd ducks, maybe not a reason to avoid them, but when first rounders especially top ones aren’t hurt and can’t make the league it’s usually a head issue, nothing new there

    Maybe a better run team could convince and cajole them into making better decisions, maybe not.

    Gagner was a limited if very skilled player getting wildly zoomed. I remember the giddiness around Gagner and JP from the team. Yak’s draft was a weak one probably, but since 07 having a 6,4, and 1st OV bust is getting something seriously wrong. Gagner is only in the league now because of the Oilers.

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers attitude to players and particularly prospects reminds me of high school romances. They either develop such a big crush they can’t think straight and if they get disappointed they despise them with equally misplaced passions.

    Addendum: Holland doesn’t seem to suffer from the same issues as previous management

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    Yeti:
    Pronman’s review of Oiler prospects is very interesting … and contentious.
    He really doesn’t rate Lagesson very highly (sorry OP) and suggests that both Persson and Nygard are very much outside bets to be NHL worthy players.

    The positive thing about his ranking is this: many of his highest ranked prospects won’t be playing in Edmonton (much) this season, but we get to find out very soon just how good the lower ranked guys are that you mentioned. That means we can pull several useful players out of the system without actually depleting said system. If Persson and Nygard become regular NHLers that’s on TOP of having the 9th best prospect list in the league.

    Yeti: It’s definitely makes sobering reading for those actively pencilling Persson in for the 2RD position…

    I don’t think anybody should be doing this anyhow, so a reality check isn’t a bad thing at all.

  71. Oilman99 says:

    frjohnk:
    Over 3 years, ( 406 minutes) JP had 6 goals and 8 assists when on the ice with McDavid.

    Cagguila, Rattie, Kassian, Yak, Pouliot, these are other guys in the JP realm in which McDavid dragged a non top 6 player and got them to score at a near 1st line pace.

    JP had something like near 90% of his time in the NHL with McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl or Strome as his center.If this is not the best center group in the NHL to start an NHL career with, I dont know what is.

    I dont believe that “JP could score with skill” it was more that “the skill could make JP score”

    And really that “skill” was only McDavid.

    JP scored 1.48 pts/60 with Drai
    1.05 with RNH
    0.98 with Strome

    Looking back its clear that his WJC performance was buoyed by playing Aho and Laine , while his scoring stats in Finish league were more Joel Armia than they were Alexander Barkov.

    This team really needed to have JP hit, but he is now in the Yak pile.

    History is showing that Aho was the stick that stirred the drink for JP and Laine. JP wasn’t mature enough be put directly into the NHL, and it appears that Laine is a pretty one dimensional player that teams have learned how to defend. Here’s hoping JP is able to pump his tires up enough to bring some sort of useful return if traded.

  72. Munny says:

    Spec saying there has been a real dearth of quality info on Connor’s progress/rehab this off-season. Wonders if the secrecy is because there is something to hide.

  73. Professor Q says:

    Yeti: There’s a lot of people around here who have (unfairly) downgraded him from asset to just ass.
    But let’s hope he’s now on an upward trajectory. That said, part of me wishes he’d gone to the KHL as it might have been more beneficial for both his hockey abilities and accumulation of life experience. Karpat is the ultimate convenience destination whereas Jokerit or a Russian club would have been a sterner test and development opportunity.

    It would have been quite something to see him go to Kunlun Red Star, now that you mention it.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Pujo needs to post better numbers than Heponiemi. While rehabilitating his reputation.

    Maybe. Thing is Hepo can only make the league one way, JP can make it several ways. I’d like to see similar numbers, but the fact that JP isn’t 5’9 and 143 lbs gives him greater base value.

  75. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    Spector on ON:

    Believes it will take at least a 2nd rounder + prospect to acquire Pujo.

    Fans of other teams don’t want to give up more than a 3rd – and no prospect. Who is right?

  76. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I think at 21 you should show better than a skinny 19 year old 2nd rounder.

    The size numbers on Hepo btw, are now at 5’11”, 154. Still Huberdeau-like lol.

  77. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I’d bet that’s about what Holland has been seeing… 3rd or a prospect. Maybe someone has offered both. If a 2nd and a decent prospect has been on the table, I think the deal would have been made.

  78. Munny says:

    Pronman will be on Oilers Now discussing his Farm Ranking list tomorrow for those interested.

  79. ArmchairGM says:

    Oilman99: History is showing that Aho was the stick that stirred the drink for JP and Laine. JP wasn’t mature enough be put directly into the NHL, and it appears that Laine is a pretty one dimensional player that teams have learned how to defend. Here’s hoping JP is able to pump his tires up enough to bring some sort of useful return if traded.

    Absolutely agree. Amazing that Aho signed that contract, too! $8.45M is a smoking deal for that player.

    Talking about Aho reminds me of the Reinhart trade, and makes me feel sick all over again.

  80. Reja says:

    HT Joe: He’s not in the Yak pile for me… I’m still cheering for Yak.

    Yak had promise after his 17 goal strike shortened season the sky was the limit until Mr. Garrison got a hold of him.

  81. Yeti says:

    Professor Q: It would have been quite something to see him go to Kunlun Red Star, now that you mention it.

    Lots of opportunity for personal growth in Beijing!

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Just had a look at the Pronman rankings. Impressive to see the Oilers move up from 22 last year to #9.

    Lots of positive words about the young guys, but he doesn’t seem to think much of Nygard or Persson. Not convinced they’re NHL quality in any capacity, much less in prominent roles.

    I’d also have thought Kesserling deserved a brief mention, huge, good skater and a little offense. An intriguing follow into college IMO.

    So busy at the office, all my Oilers reading, other than LT, is delayed until night time.

    Look forward to reading Pronman’s analysis.

  83. ArmchairGM says:

    Figure to get the draft talk started early! 😉

    If we pick in the 8-10 range again, Kasper Simontaival is my early favorite.

  84. barry.moore23 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    STOP IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    🙂

  85. Material Elvis says:

    ArmchairGM: Fans of other teams don’t want to give up more than a 3rd – and no prospect. Who is right?

    They are both right. Holland has a certain asking price and nobody is willing to pay it at this time.

  86. Material Elvis says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Figure to get the draft talk started early!

    If we pick in the 8-10 range again, Kasper Simontaival is my early favorite.

    Hendrix Lapierre, Anton Lundell.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    ProfessorQ: And didn’t mention a word about the injuries of Safin (ranked quite low), which caused said disappointing year (though he never recovered in the stretch and playoffs, so that sucks too), while giving Benson a pass for his injuries in his last few WHL years.

    And despite his praise for Bouchard, it still has a sense of being reluctant. He does have a lot of love for Konovolov, so here’s hoping his KHL numbers eventually translate well to Edmonton.

    I think I have a lot of hope for these guys. They’re going to surprise us in Bakersfield. Sure, we’ve been disappointed before, but it only takes one time to flip the script.

    I’m quite excited about Konovolov – his numbers as a rookie in the KHL are very impressive even taking in to account the low scoring nature of the league. McCurdy/Staples on their podcast a little while ago got me all excited about this kid and its great that all three of our goalies have 2 years left on their deals – the org will be in a great position to decide which 1, 2 or 3 to sign and will have more info on Rodrigue as well.

    The Condors were so much fun to watch last year and this team should be even moreso. Nope, all the talked about prospects won’t make it but, at the same time, the depth of “REAL PROSPECTS”, with legit NHL chances, boggles me – just so much different than what we are used to. Each of the following are real propspects and may spend varying degrees of time on the team:

    Lagesson
    Jones
    Bear
    Persson (potential adjustment stint)
    Samorukov
    Bouchard

    Benson
    Marody
    Maksimov
    Safin
    McLeod
    Yamamoto
    Joe G.

  88. Lowetide says:

    Pronman’s list is very interesting this year. His list and mine are close through No. 9 and then we go our separate ways. Suspect that’s a tell, the top 10 are obvious and then it’s shades of grey. One player I like much more than Corey is Lagesson, who I have No. 10. He likes Olivier Rodrigue a LOT more than I do.

  89. HT Joe says:

    ArmchairGM: Figure to get the draft talk started early!

    If we pick in the 8-10 range again, Kasper Simontaival is my early favorite.

    I believe the Oilers will pick before the 8-10 range. Top 5 baby!

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I’d like to see point-per-game with at least 0.4 goals-per-game. Anything approaching these numbers would constitute “lighting it up” and “dominating” the league, at which point I think his trade value skyrockets up to mid-1st round pick status. A Jean-Luc Foudy pick in the 2020 draft would be welcome.

    I think that its a bit unreasonable to hope for that though. The league scoring leaders are generally just over a PPG and mid to late 20s (the odd 22 year old i saw).

    I will reasonably hope for a 0.75PPG pace – half goals.

  91. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I’m mildly disappointed but not surprised by the Oiler management reaction to situation

    – Holland clearly taking direction from those who have dealt with pool and are still with the organization

    – Not a peep in the direction like “pool is an amazing kid huge upside. We’ve let him down and acknowledge we’ve got to be better. We really need his big body speed and skill”

    – Rather: “ we will trade him when we get a good deal”

    – The only two plus outcomes are that pool lights it up overseas and other teams pay up for him or Holland gets to know him and believes in him.

    – Pool is totally acting in his best interest: and that’s not showing up to camp on a team that doesn’t rate him nor have had a positive thing to say or a teammate giving a shout out to him. Good for Pool.

    -#teamPool#suck it Oiler management #

  92. jp says:

    For fun, from Pronman’s lists:

    High-end NHL prospects
    Oilers 2
    Flames 0

    Very good NHL prospects
    Oilers 3
    Flames 0

    Very good/legit bubble
    Oilers 1
    Flames 1

    Legit NHL prospect
    Oilers 5
    Flames 3

    Legit/chance bubble
    Oilers 1
    Flames 4

    It’s stark folks.

    Of course, their NHL players are better than ours at the moment..

  93. Side says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – Not a peep in the direction like “pool is an amazing kid huge upside. We’ve let him down and acknowledge we’ve got to be better. We really need his big body speed and skill”

    It wouldn’t make much sense for Holland to apologize for something he did not do though. Him or Tippett didn’t let JP down, that was Chiarelli and Todd. Blaming the organization as a whole is insincere and unnecessary when the big players have changed. Who in the organization is even left to blame for the handling of JP?

    Didn’t Holland and JP have a long phone conversation when Holland first came on board? It’s kinda hard to speculate how Holland does or does not feel towards Jesse in this situation.

    For all we know, Holland could have said all of the things you said to Jesse upfront and Jesse didn’t care. Or, maybe Holland had a long conversation explaining how he was going to make Jesse’s life miserable on the Oilers. We don’t know.

    I’m not sure what else people are expecting Holland to do at this point with Jesse though. At least I feel confident Holland won’t give JP away for nothing or trade him for a worse player with a bad contract like Chiarelli most likely would have.

  94. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think that its a bit unreasonable to hope for that though.The league scoring leaders are generally just over a PPG and mid to late 20s (the odd 22 year old i saw).

    I will reasonably hope for a 0.75PPG pace – half goals.

    Damn! Do you read anything before you reply? Allow me to quote myself:

    “I’d like to see”

    “these numbers would constitute “lighting it up” and “dominating” the league”

    I didn’t say this was a reasonable expectation. I want Jesse to explode offensively so we get the maximum possible return for the asset, which I think peaks at a mid 1st rounder. Maybe Holland can right the wrong of 2015.

  95. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I will reasonably hope for a 0.75PPG pace – half goals.

    That would be a poorer scoring rate than a 19yo 2nd rounder put up for the Karpat team this past season, and much poorer than Aho’s 18 yo season with the same club. IMO, .75 ppg would be quite disappointing.

    He should be tearing the cover off the ball in that League.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti:
    Pronman’s review of Oiler prospects is very interesting … and contentious.
    He really doesn’t rate Lagesson very highly (sorry OP) and suggests that both Persson and Nygard are very much outside bets to be NHL worthy players. It’s definitely makes sobering reading for those actively pencilling Persson in for the 2RD position…
    On the plus side, he’s more positive about Benson and Marody for the year ahead. And he loves Broberg.

    [Edit: What JP (no, not that JP) said]

    Full respect for Pronman and he watches a ton of amateur hockey – I’m confident that I watched more Lagesson than him this past season – guessing he doesn’t catch too many Condors’ games.

    I know I’m higher on WIllie that almost anyone else and I’m likely the one that’s off-base a bit – we’ll know more in a few months.

    I think pencilling Persson in to 2RD is a bit unreasonable to start with. I’ve got him pencilled in to 3RD and am hopeful he can handle the 5 on 5 minutes but its far from a sure bet.

  97. jp says:

    Side: It wouldn’t make much sense for Holland to apologize for something he did not do though. Him or Tippett didn’t let JP down, that was Chiarelli and Todd.Blaming the organization as a whole is insincere and unnecessary when the big players have changed.Who in the organization is even left to blame for the handling of JP?

    Didn’t Holland and JP have a long phone conversation when Holland first came on board? It’s kinda hard to speculate how Holland does or does not feel towards Jesse in this situation.

    For all we know, Holland could have said all of the things you said to Jesse upfront and Jesse didn’t care.Or, maybe Holland had a long conversation explaining how he was going to make Jesse’s life miserable on the Oilers. We don’t know.

    I’m not sure what else people are expecting Holland to do at this point with Jesse though.At least I feel confident Holland won’t give JP away for nothing or trade him for a worse player with a bad contract like Chiarelli most likely would have.

    +1

  98. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: I know I’m higher on WIllie that almost anyone else and I’m likely the one that’s off-base a bit – we’ll know more in a few months.

    I really hope he delivers, great arrows this last season!
    It’s worth noting that Pronman also doesn’t see Jones as any more than a 3rd pairing D.

  99. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Side,

    – It’s pretty easy to understand Oil think through media.

    – Holland has been clear that there are no outs for pool and he isn’t rated. Not once has he publicly bigged him up. That’s a tell. Just as Neal is top shape rebound or nada re:McD

    – It’s not tippets or Holland’s job to atone for previous regimes.

    – Old regimes didn’t rate pool and treated him as such. New regime doesn’t have any skin in game

    – If Pool is yak2.0 great call. But Pool has been mishandled and is actually controlling the situation: he’d rather play overseas than be cast as a 4rth line 12 minute no PP time.

    – Good for him. And if he sucks good call by Oiler management

  100. Yeti says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Not a peep in the direction like “pool is an amazing kid huge upside. We’ve let him down and acknowledge we’ve got to be better. We really need his big body speed and skill”

    If that was your expectation then I’m not surprised that you’re disappointed. I doubt any GM would ever make such a statement in public, particularly in a situation of ongoing negotiations with both the player and other clubs. To be honest, the conclusions you’re making in this specific case seem truly extreme. There’s blame on both sides here.

  101. Material Elvis says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Side,

    – It’s pretty easy to understand Oil think through media.

    – Holland has been clear that there are no outs for pool and he isn’t rated. Not once has he publicly bigged him up. That’s a tell. Just as Neal is top shape rebound or nada re:McD

    – It’s not tippets or Holland’s job to atone for previous regimes.

    – Old regimes didn’t rate pool and treated him as such. New regime doesn’t have any skin in game

    – If Pool is yak2.0 great call. But Pool has been mishandled and is actually controlling the situation: he’d rather play overseas than be cast as a 4rth line 12 minute no PP time.

    – Good for him. And if he sucks good call by Oiler management

    Old regime drafted him so how is it that they didn’t ‘rate him’ (whatever that means)? GM’s tend to be more supportive of ‘their guys’.

    Two established coaches came to the same conclusion Kinger. I don’t think they are biased against Finns or good hockey players. His performance wasn’t good enough.

    You have a real disconnect going on with this situation.

  102. jp says:

    Munny: That would be a poorer scoring rate than a 19yo 2nd rounder put up for the Karpat team this past season, and much poorer than Aho’s 18 yo season with the same club.IMO, .75 ppg would be quite disappointing.

    He should be tearing the cover off the ball in that League.

    Only 24 players scored better than 0.75 PPG in Liiga last season. Only Heponeimi, Kakko (#2OV 2019) and Rasmus Kupari (LAK 1st 2018) are under 23 currently.

    I agree Puljujarvi should be one of the better players in that league and should clear 0.75PPG but the expectation shouldn’t be a lot more than that IMO. I think him reaching 1.0PPG would would have to be considered a significant positive arrow (we can pretend he’s a prospect again, right?)

  103. Munny says:

    Kinger…

    Holland on reaching out to Jesse (via Spector):

    “A week after I was hired (on May 6) Markus Lehto told me Jesse wanted to move on,” Holland said. “I was hoping, you know the old saying, that time heals all wounds. I hired Dave Tippett, and shortly after I talked to Lehto and nothing had changed. We had Jesse here in Edmonton for four or five days, and him and I sat down for an hour face to face. Jesse told me the same thing Markus was telling me.”

    The two reached out to the Puljujarvi camp again in late July, only be told that they could call Puljujarvi in Finland if they wanted, but he was steadfast in his wish to move on from the team that drafted him with the No. 4 pick in 2016.

  104. jp says:

    Fun fact, if you switch the side bar for “scoring leaders” on elitepropsects.com to “NHL” Gaetan Hass is the first name listed.

  105. Munny says:

    jp,

    He should be a top 10 player in that League with his pedigree. 20th would be pretty disappointing IMO, and I doubt it would be enough to boost his present trade value.

    If he posts .75 ppg in the Liiga, he’s looking at an NHLe somewhere around 22 points, which is nowhere near the Top 6 player he is purporting himself to be.

    With his toolkit, and an 18 month age advantage, if he can’t post as many points per game as a 19 year old sliver of a player who was drafted 36 spots later, he is not improving his trade value. That line in the sand is .92 ppg. I don’t think it is unreasonable to think he should do as well or better.

    If he doesn’t, we’re staring a 3rd rounder coming back square in the eyes.

  106. Munny says:

    Professor Q: Ah, I see. But Bolton is also in the same situation as Bury so I guess if either one of them survives today, the fans could support their “brethren”. I need to learn this slang if I’m to get more into football. :p

    Wanderers have been given a 14 day reprieve it appears. They’re my side, so this is fantastic news.

  107. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Yeti,

    Material Elvis,

    – There is blame on both sides. GMs talk up players they like for a living

    – If there is disagreement about the deployment development linemates minutes PP allowing for mistakes vs development I guess that’s the disconnect.

    – We have so much albeit small sample and training camps that show pool in a very positive top6 play with skill winger. But as ricki amd others have shown other non elite players get far more time with the skill players over and over for years.

    – The oil have concluded he’s not a top6 option. That’s their belief. Pool believes they are wrong.

    – And I think he’s right. And even if he isn’t the Oil have decided for him. So it’s his career. The next contract depends on how he does. He’s not going to do well with the Oil.

    – I am probably out to lunch. I am often. But I’m certain Pool is handling it correctly given the situation. As are the Oilers given they don’t rate him

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Fitch, Moody’s and SP as of this morning has downgraded Jesse as a valuable asset to just asset

    DBRS is holding…..

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Holland:


    “I don’t know that him signing in Finland has a huge effect on the situation,” Holland said on Tuesday morning, adding that is better for everyone that Puljujarvi is playing somewhere rather than holding out. “I’ve had conversations with numerous clubs that have had interest, some interest, in acquiring Jesse. And I have had, probably in the last 10 days, two or three new teams reach out to me. Teams whose positions have changed, and are checking into the Puljujarvi situation.


    “I’ll do a deal if I feel good that I’m making a deal in the best interests of the Edmonton Oilers.”

    Loving the fact that Holland isn’t willing to trade without value coming back – Mattheson says he’s requiring a pick and a prospect – atta boy Ken.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: There’s a lot of people around here who have (unfairly) downgraded him from asset to just ass.
    But let’s hope he’s now on an upward trajectory. That said, part of me wishes he’d gone to the KHL as it might have been more beneficial for both his hockey abilities and accumulation of life experience. Karpat is the ultimate convenience destination whereas Jokerit or a Russian club would have been a sterner test and development opportunity.

    Recall, he wasn’t just free to sign anywhere – I can’t remember which team but one of the KHL teams holds his rights.

  111. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: Recall, he wasn’t just free to sign anywhere – I can’t remember which team but one of the KHL teams holds his rights.

    Oh, I guess that’s right. Didn’t think about that.

    Torpedo Nizhni Novgorod offered him a contract, so they’re likely the team that has his rights, then.

    By the way, I think their jerseys are bad-ass. A great color combo and a cool red stag as a logo! They might be my new favourite KHL team (although Jokerit is up there).

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Pronman will be on Oilers Now discussing his Farm Ranking list tomorrow for those interested.

    Great tip – will have to listen tomorrow night when clients are only partially demanding – still haven’t had a chance to read his piece.

  113. jp says:

    Munny:
    jp,

    He should be a top 10 player in that League with his pedigree.20th would be pretty disappointing IMO, and I doubt it would be enough to boost his present trade value.

    If he posts .75 ppg in the Liiga, he’s looking at an NHLe somewhere around 22 points, which is nowhere near the Top 6 player he is purporting himself to be.

    With his toolkit, and an 18 month age advantage, if he can’t post as many points per game as a 19 year old sliver of a player who was drafted 36 spots later, he is not improving his trade value.That line in the sand is .92 ppg. I don’t think it is unreasonable to think he should do as well or better.

    If he doesn’t, we’re staring a 3rd rounder coming back square in the eyes.

    Are we talking about reasonable? Or are we talking about improving his trade value? Is expecting him to improve his trade value reasonable?

    0.75 PPG is about 22 NHL points. That’s what he scored 2 years ago and well ahead of this past seasons pace. Isn’t 0.75PPG actually very reasonable?

    Anyway, it seems clear our disconnect has largely been about answering different questions. Earlier I had 0.8-0.9PPG in my head as the range that 1) was reasonable and 2) shouldn’t be disappointing. 0.9 was a Liiga top 10 scorer and 0.8 a top 20. Any less I’d be some degree of disappointed. More I’d be pleased. Maybe our respective expectations here aren’t so far off.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilredux:
    – I’m mildly disappointed but not surprised by the Oiler management reaction to situation

    – Holland clearly taking direction from those who have dealt with pool and are still with the organization

    – Not a peep in the direction like “pool is an amazing kid huge upside. We’ve let him down and acknowledge we’ve got to be better. We really need his big body speed and skill”

    – Rather: “ we will trade him when we get a good deal”

    – The only two plus outcomes are that pool lights it up overseas and other teams pay up for him or Holland gets to know him and believes in him.

    – Pool is totally acting in his best interest: and that’s not showing up to camp on a team that doesn’t rate him nor have had a positive thing to say or a teammate giving a shout out to him. Good for Pool.

    -#teamPool#suck it Oiler management #

    I see nothing that indicates that Holland is taking direction from anyone. Ensuring the trade is right for the team and not making a trade for the sake of it is right up his ally. Feel free to explain.

    Not sure why Holland should talk about any fails of old management – he was clear at the beginning that Jesse would be welcomed back and has never stated otherwise as Jesse and his agent kept putting out verbals. He was express about mending relationships with players in Detroit.

    This is a just turned 21 kid who has underperformed. The organization has culpability in that but the player has much as well – and his agent.

    100% trade him when a satisfactory deal comes along. The Oilers hold his rights – that is how professional sports works – they don’t owe him anything – they’ve offered him a contract at almost $1M – he can still take it.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Damn! Do you read anything before you reply? Allow me to quote myself:

    “I’d like to see”

    “these numbers would constitute “lighting it up” and “dominating” the league”

    I didn’t say this was a reasonable expectation. I want Jesse to explode offensively so we get the maximum possible return for the asset, which I think peaks at a mid 1st rounder. Maybe Holland can right the wrong of 2015.

    Wow, I was polite and respectful in my post – its unfortunate the same was returned.

    I thought that we generally talk about somewhat reasonable possibilities in this community and the conversation was a real one regarding what would help increase his value and should be expected.

    I want to see Tyler Benson dominate the NHL this year and score 90 points – just as unreasonable to expect/hope for in my mind.

    Oh well.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: That would be a poorer scoring rate than a 19yo 2nd rounder put up for the Karpat team this past season, and much poorer than Aho’s 18 yo season with the same club.IMO, .75 ppg would be quite disappointing.

    He should be tearing the cover off the ball in that League.

    Given the scoring leaders over the last number of years in the league and their general ages, I don’t think that’s reasonable for this 21 year old.

    Sure, if he was trending to reach his draft day potential, I would expect him to tear up the league but we aren’t there right now.

    His trade value isn’t worth a recent second rounder with good arrows and I wouldn’t expect him to perform materially better than that player – not yet

    My expectation is to be very good offensive player who produces solid to very good numbers and also has a plus 2-way game – that’s his game.

  117. rickithebear says:

    JP:
    I break down the grouping by LW, C, RW.
    Cause the HD area chart has higher success rate from a central shot than from the wings given equal distance.
    Reflected in higher potential open space.

    Their are more C in your groups.

    That is why I look at top 62 LW, C, RW.

    Some here have said they all get equal time Central HD area time.
    That centers are just better goal scorers.
    What a crock!

    Their is a natural advantage to traditional structure.

    So I showed top Evg total because it is a combination of evg/60 & EVTOI.

    Plus it is clear you need distributors on every line.
    Elite distributes can pass people open.
    But most distributors are dependent on finish ability of shooters.
    Top Evg total and top evg/60 players are good to have.

    I am being evg centric cause they are finishers we want.

    Looking at 17-18 & 18-19 their is a clear reduction in median save% from .918 to .912
    Average for 2 years.

    When you look at 1st line (1-31); 2Nd line (32-62); third line (63-93) based on minutes
    You get all kinds of varied range per group 1.6 to .38 evg/60 for 2nd LW; 1.98 – .64 eva/60 1st RW

    Looking at top 31, #32-62, #63-93 evg/60 & eva/60 for LW, C, RW from last 2 seasons.
    LW:
    Top 31 LW 1.48 – 1.00 evg/60; 1.93 – 1.18 eva/60
    #32-62 LW .99 – .81 evg/60; 1.15 – 1.00 eva/60
    #63 – 93 .81 – .65 evg/60; .99 – .87 eva/60

    C:
    Top 31 C 1.53 – 1.00 evg/60; 2.05 – 1.48 eva/60
    #32 – 62 C .99 – .81 evg/60; 1.47 – 1.22 eva/60
    #63 – 93 C .81 – .74 evg/69; 1.22 – 1.06 eva/60

    RW:
    Top 31 RW 1.6 – .91 evg/60; 1.98 – 1.18 eva/60
    #32 – 62 RW .91 – .72 evg/60; 1.17 – .93 eva/60
    #63 – 93 RW .71 – .49 evg/60; .93 – .72 eva/60

    18-19
    Mcdavid C 1.27 evg/60; 2.05 Eva/60
    Draisaitl W 1.25 evg/60; 1.70 Eva/60
    Gagner EDM RW .95 evg/60; .95 Eva/60
    RNH C .92 evg/60; 1.01 Eva/60
    Archibald RW .89 evg/60; .67 Eva/60
    Kassian RW .79 evg/60; .62 Eva/60
    Chaisson RW .78 evg/60; .48 Eva/60
    Granlund LW .70 evg/60; .56 Eva/60

    17-18
    Neal 1.15 evg/60; .86 Eva/60
    Jurco 1.02 evg/60; .68 Eva/60
    Khaira .80 evg/60; . 64 Eva/60

    16-17
    Granlund .98 evg/60; .55 Eva/60
    Gagner .66 evg/60; 1.45 Eva/60

    Mcd, Drai, Gagner, RNH show as puck distributors.
    Ranges in 38+gm (official) reg seasons
    1C Mcdavid 2.05 to 1.85 eva/60
    2C RNH 1.2 – .92 eva/60
    3C Gagner 1.45 – .81 eva/60
    3C Draisaitl 1.94 – 1.46 eva/60

    3C Khaira 18-19 1.27 eva/60

    5 potential pass distribution centers.
    Gagner needing more of a bench change with pocession push.

  118. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m quite excited about Konovolov – his numbers as a rookie in the KHL are very impressive even taking in to account the low scoring nature of the league. McCurdy/Staples on their podcast a little while ago got me all excited about this kid and its great that all three of our goalies have 2 years left on their deals – the org will be in a great position to decide which 1, 2 or 3 to sign and will have more info on Rodrigue as well.

    The Condors were so much fun to watch last year and this team should be even moreso.Nope, all the talked about prospects won’t make it but, at the same time, the depth of “REAL PROSPECTS”, with legit NHL chances, boggles me – just so much different than what we are used to.Each of the following are real propspects and may spend varying degrees of time on the team:

    Lagesson
    Jones
    Bear
    Persson (potential adjustment stint)
    Samorukov
    Bouchard

    Benson
    Marody
    Maksimov
    Safin
    McLeod
    Yamamoto
    Joe G.

    Must be so liberating to have so much fun following a team that has failed epically for so long. Especially for someone who has followed them for so long like you. I can tell you are in the same age range as me from your hot shirt off pics from the Far East last year and I can’t believe you can still cheer for prospects when we should be cheering for a repeat final appearance or something.

  119. Side says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Side,

    – It’s pretty easy to understand Oil think through media.

    – Holland has been clear that there are no outs for pool and he isn’t rated. Not once has he publicly bigged him up. That’s a tell. Just as Neal is top shape rebound or nada re:McD

    – It’s not tippets or Holland’s job to atone for previous regimes.

    – Old regimes didn’t rate pool and treated him as such. New regime doesn’t have any skin in game

    – If Pool is yak2.0 great call. But Pool has been mishandled and is actually controlling the situation: he’d rather play overseas than be cast as a 4rth line 12 minute no PP time.

    – Good for him. And if he sucks good call by Oiler management

    I can see Holland pumping up Neal – he is the one Holland traded for after all.

    But Jesse? Holland came into a position where JP and his agent had seemingly made up their minds already. Holland has said he would welcome him back so there’s no need to gush over a player that doesn’t want to be there. Gushing to the media doesn’t increase JP’s value either so there’s no real point. And no matter the spin the Oilers put on the situation, their spin isn’t more damaging than the verbal coming from JP and his agent.

  120. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Wow, I was polite and respectful in my post – its unfortunate the same was returned.

    I thought that we generally talk about somewhat reasonable possibilities in this community and the conversation was a real one regarding what would help increase his value and should be expected.

    I want to see Tyler Benson dominate the NHL this year and score 90 points – just as unreasonable to expect/hope for in my mind.

    Oh well.

    Wow, arrogant AND condescending. Good job.

  121. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – Pool is totally acting in his best interest: and that’s not showing up to camp on a team that doesn’t rate him nor have had a positive thing to say or a teammate giving a shout out to him. Good for Pool.

    -#teamPool#suck it Oiler management #

    There certainly hasn’t been much support for Puljujarvi from his teammates but I do believe it was reported that McDavid contacted him when this all first came out.

    Again, not much, but the captain did make a call.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: Must be so liberating to have so much fun following a team that has failed epically for so long. Especially for someone who has followed them for so long like you. I can tell you are in the same age range as me from your hot shirt off pics from the Far East last year and I can’t believe you can still cheer for prospects when we should be cheering for a repeat final appearance or something.

    “hot shirt off pics”? Twitter?

    Can’t I cheer for both?

  123. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: Recall, he wasn’t just free to sign anywhere – I can’t remember which team but one of the KHL teams holds his rights.

    I’d indeed forgotten that – thanks! Torpedo Nizhni Novgorod has the rights, I think.

  124. Yeti says:

    Glovjuice: Must be so liberating to have so much fun following a team that has failed epically for so long. Especially for someone who has followed them for so long like you. I can tell you are in the same age range as me from your hot shirt off pics from the Far East last year and I can’t believe you can still cheer for prospects when we should be cheering for a repeat final appearance or something.

    Cheering for the prospects has been my primary pursuit since 2006. It is fun.

  125. Side says:

    I think we can all agree that policing the forum and policing who/what people cheer for is the most fun, liberating and respectable hobby of them all.

  126. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Munny:
    Spector on ON:

    Believes it will take at least a 2nd rounder + prospect to acquire Pujo.

    Well, I guess no one is going to acquire him then.

  127. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    ArmchairGM: Fans of other teams don’t want to give up more than a 3rd – and no prospect. Who is right?

    Fans.

  128. Reja says:

    Glovjuice: Must be so liberating to have so much fun following a team that has failed epically for so long. Especially for someone who has followed them for so long like you. I can tell you are in the same age range as me from your hot shirt off pics from the Far East last year and I can’t believe you can still cheer for prospects when we should be cheering for a repeat final appearance or something.

    Gag me with a spoon!

  129. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    ArmchairGM: Fans of other teams don’t want to give up more than a 3rd – and no prospect. Who is right?

    oh, and every other GM in the NHL. And pretty much everyone else except Jesse and his agent, both of whom probably think his shit smells like roses.

    Pretty sure Jesse is staying in Europe for a very long time. A third or forth, which is probably the best you can expect, is like pocket change to the Oil. They drop that on the ground all the time (often on a goalie lottery ticket) without even thinking to pick it up.

  130. Georgexs says:

    Ryan:
    Willis knocks it out the park in a highly depressing read.

    https://theathletic.com/1164101/2019/08/27/willis-can-mikko-koskinen-be-a-quality-starter-for-oilers-in-2019-20/

    https://theathletic.com/1060429/2019/07/04/how-often-do-goalies-like-the-oilers-mike-smith-rebound/

    I might start chasing down info on the 2020 draft at the start of the season.

    I read the Mike Smith article.

    1. He uses even strength save percentage. Not sure why; he doesn’t offer an explanation. Goalies have to stop non EV shots as well. He also goes back to 1997-98 for his data. I prefer sticking to 2000-01 when the league expanded to 30 teams.

    2. He uses averages. Averages will be skewed by goalies who are letting in a lot of goals and failing out of the league. Even if they play just a few games. He should consider using medians; how does the middle goalie in the group perform? Is the median 37-year-old goalie any worse than the median goalie at younger ages?

    3. With the first question, the median relative save percentage for the 18 goalies who have played when they were 37 is -0.000484, or just barely shy of league average. That mark was posted by Johan Hedberg in 10-11 with NJD. He played 34 games.

    4. For the second question, let’s use 10 games played to filter out the goalies who aren’t likely to be established and will have weaker stats. Here’s the median relative save percent at each age for seasons from 2000-01 to 2018-19:

    age, players, median rel_sv_pct

    18, 1, -0.009
    19, 3, -0.019
    20, 6, 0.007
    21, 21, 0.001
    22, 49, 0.000
    23, 59, -0.002
    24, 72, -0.001
    25, 100, -0.003
    26, 100, 0.002
    27, 104, 0.001
    28, 107, 0.001
    29, 90, 0.001
    30, 85, -0.002
    31, 79, -0.002
    32, 71, -0.005
    33, 57, 0.001
    34, 51, -0.001
    35, 37, 0.001
    36, 33, -0.003
    37, 15, 0.000
    38, 14, -0.005
    39, 9, -0.006
    40, 4, -0.007
    41, 5, -0.003
    42, 2, -0.017

    So the picture you get is that the typical goalie is basically the typical goalie, regardless of their age. The numbers start to fall off at 38 and after, teams and players hanging on too long. Otherwise, as one would expect for a position as important as goalie, performance doesn’t deteriorate with age. As a forward or as a defenseman, you can play down the order as you age. No such luck if you’re a goalie. You’re all alone out there; if your performance drops, you’re more likely to be dropped. That’s why median performance stays flat across age. (Smith, it’s true, is at the very edge of the safe and cozy age range for goalies.)

    5. He takes Smith to task for his regular season numbers but he makes no mention of Smith’s play in the playoffs. Smith was one of the few Flames who made an appearance in the playoffs, if I remember right. He looked a little more than OK playing behind Calgary’s mostly absent defensive core. Smith had a bad year but he’s also had good years just before that, 3 years playing better than league average sv pct. That’s how he’s stayed in the game and that’s why he’s one of the very few goalies who’s getting a chance to play at 37.

  131. Munny says:

    jp: Anyway, it seems clear our disconnect has largely been about answering different questions.

    Probably lol.

    I’m not trying to establish an LT RE here.

    I’m talking about what needs to happen for Holland to get a trade offer he thinks is reasonable, and what Pujo himself should have as a goal, if he’s claiming to be a Top 6 winger right now.

    According to Spector today, he believes Holland is looking for a 2nd rounder and a prospect.

    Just so happens that a 2nd round 19 yo, who has yet to establish himself as a top 6 talent, played for Karpat last year and put up .92 ppg. That’s my line in the sand for a player who has basically said to the org “I’ll show you I’m a top 6er” and also my line in the sand for Holland getting his ask.

    Now one of the things Pujo will want to prove is that he is one motivated fella. And playing in Finland removes all excuses… language, ice size, ice time etc.

    Thus I don’t think my line in the sand is “unreasonable” lol.

    One would hope that under ideal circumstances we see a step forward from even his year one performance.

    The worst case scenarios are, of course:

    1. He gets injured
    2. His regression continues or flatlines

  132. Reja says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Well, I guess no one is going to acquire him then.

    That’s the high bar once teams get there rosters in order Jesse plus or a asset will get us a 3C that can play 2C in a pinch PK and win faceoffs. Holland and Tippett weren’t brought in for a development year with McDavid and Leon’s clock ticking they were brought in to make the playoffs without harming the future.

  133. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – Not a peep in the direction like “pool is an amazing kid huge upside. We’ve let him down and acknowledge we’ve got to be better. We really need his big body speed and skill”

    -#teamPool#suck it Oiler management #

    Huh? The bright shiny wrapping paper and the glossy ribbon has been removed from the package. All the GM’s know what is inside, not just the guy from Columbus (got that right this time just for you Juice).

    #TeamOil #SuckItPoolAndTheAgentYouRodeInOn

  134. Reja says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Huh? The bright shiny wrapping paper and the glossy ribbon has been removed from the package. All the GM’s know what is inside, not just the guy from Columbus (got that right this time just for you Juice).

    #TeamOil #SuckItPoolAndTheAgentYouRodeInOn

    Stockholm oops I mean Helsinki Syndrome.

  135. Scungilli Slushy says:

    A lot of whiners lately.

    So if the Oilers are so awful and doomed to failure, put up your choices for teams that are going to get it done. That are built so much better, in a capped league, with an expansion draft ready to steal.

    Complaining gets boring fast. Put your money where your mouth is, please.

    I won’t be awful later, but will point it out if I remember or care then. Put up or shut up so to speak.

  136. Scungilli Slushy says:

    To me next season is wide open. Nobody is stacked because of hot ELCs that I can think of. Incumbents are old, unbalanced, or out of control.

    Throw it sisters and brothers!

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: That’s the high bar once teams get there rosters in order Jesse plus or a asset will get us a 3C that can play 2C in a pinch PK and win faceoffs. Holland and Tippett weren’t brought in for a development year with McDavid and Leon’s clock ticking they were brought in to make the playoffs without harming the future.

    Holland was brought in to build a Stanley Cup contender over the next few years – that’s been clear from his verbal, his actions and his non-actions.

  138. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: “hot shirt off pics”? Twitter?

    Can’t I cheer for both?

    You sure can, dude.

    Thought it was here but maybe Twitter (that you posted here). Anyways, Twitter and here are my only vices so those are the only options.

  139. Glovjuice says:

    Yeti: Cheering for the prospects has been my primary pursuit since 2006. It is fun.

    Since the Hall draft for me as well till the 16-17 playoffs but NOT since then. A disgraceful tire fire since then.

  140. Glovjuice says:

    Side:
    I think we can all agree that policing the forum and policing who/what people cheer for is the most fun, liberating and respectable hobby of them all.

    Lighten up, man. It’s the summer slow season.

  141. Glovjuice says:

    Reja: Stockholm oops I mean Helsinki Syndrome.

    Well done. I noticed. He sure is looking like a genius now isn’t he. Well, aside from his team missing the playoffs for the next half decade.

  142. jp says:

    Munny: Probably lol.

    I’m not trying to establish an LT RE here.

    I’m talking about what needs to happen for Holland to get a trade offer he thinks is reasonable, and what Pujo himself should have as a goal, if he’s claiming to be a Top 6 winger right now.

    According to Spector today, he believes Holland is looking for a 2nd rounder and a prospect.

    Just so happens that a 2nd round 19 yo, who has yet to establish himself as a top 6 talent, played for Karpat last year and put up .92 ppg.That’s my line in the sand for a player who has basically said to the org “I’ll show you I’m a top 6er” and also my line in the sand for Holland getting his ask.

    Now one of the things Pujo will want to prove is that he is one motivated fella. And playing in Finland removes all excuses… language, ice size, ice time etc.

    Thus I don’t think my line in the sand is “unreasonable” lol.

    One would hope that under ideal circumstances we see a step forward from even his year one performance.

    The worst case scenarios are, of course:

    1. He gets injured
    2. His regression continues or flatlines

    Well yeah, that’s entirely different from what I’ve been talking about. So yes, I totally agree the bar is a ton higher if we’re looking at recouping value on Puljujarvi.

    I’m not sure though what Hepioniemi has to do with anything. He had a great draft +2 year. He’s a waif, and maybe he outperoforms his draft projections. Aho was similar, 2nd round pick who killed it after being drafted. Very little relevance to Puljujarvi here IMO.

    And yes, the worst case here is quite bad.

  143. Hilmar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: If you find the stream, please post!

    Don’t know if anyone got back to you, but this might help.

    from https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/fans/where-to-watch

    “Champions Hockey League games can be watched on TV or digital platforms in many countries. In addition to that, we offer free livestreaming on our website and app for territories and games where there is no geoblocking in effect.”

    “Canada TSN CHL Games available on TSN and TSN GO
    All games not Live on TV/Online are available via the CHL Website/App”

    “USA and its territories NHL Network CHL Games available on NHL Network
    All games not Live on TV are available via the CHL Website/App”

  144. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    JP:
    I break down the grouping by LW,C, RW.
    Cause the HD area chart has higher success rate from a central shot than from the wings given equal distance.
    Reflected in higher potential open space.

    Their are more C in your groups.

    That is why I look at top 62 LW, C, RW.

    Some here have said they all get equal time Central HD area time.
    That centers are just better goal scorers.
    What a crock!

    Their is a natural advantage to traditional structure.

    So I showed top Evg total because it is a combination of evg/60 & EVTOI.

    Plus it is clear you need distributors on every line.
    Elite distributes can pass people open.
    But most distributors are dependent on finish ability of shooters.
    Top Evg total and top evg/60 players are good to have.

    I am being evg centric cause they are finishers we want.

    Looking at 17-18 & 18-19 their is a clear reduction in median save% from .918 to .912
    Average for 2 years.

    When you look at 1st line (1-31); 2Nd line (32-62); third line (63-93) based on minutes
    You get all kinds of varied range per group 1.6 to .38 evg/60 for 2nd LW; 1.98 – .64 eva/60 1st RW

    Looking at top 31, #32-62, #63-93 evg/60 & eva/60 for LW, C, RW from last 2 seasons.
    LW:
    Top 31 LW 1.48 – 1.00 evg/60; 1.93 – 1.18 eva/60
    #32-62 LW .99 – .81 evg/60; 1.15 – 1.00 eva/60
    #63 – 93 .81 – .65 evg/60; .99 – .87 eva/60

    C:
    Top 31 C 1.53 – 1.00 evg/60; 2.05 – 1.48 eva/60
    #32 – 62 C .99 – .81 evg/60; 1.47 – 1.22 eva/60
    #63 – 93 C .81 – .74 evg/69; 1.22 – 1.06 eva/60

    RW:
    Top 31 RW 1.6 – .91 evg/60; 1.98 – 1.18 eva/60
    #32 – 62 RW .91 – .72 evg/60; 1.17 – .93 eva/60
    #63 – 93 RW .71 – .49 evg/60; .93 – .72 eva/60

    18-19
    Mcdavid C 1.27 evg/60; 2.05 Eva/60
    Draisaitl W 1.25 evg/60; 1.70 Eva/60
    Gagner EDM RW .95 evg/60; .95 Eva/60
    RNH C .92 evg/60; 1.01 Eva/60
    Archibald RW .89 evg/60; .67 Eva/60
    Kassian RW .79 evg/60; .62 Eva/60
    Chaisson RW .78 evg/60; .48 Eva/60
    Granlund LW .70 evg/60; .56 Eva/60

    17-18
    Neal 1.15 evg/60; .86 Eva/60
    Jurco 1.02 evg/60; .68 Eva/60
    Khaira .80 evg/60; . 64 Eva/60

    16-17
    Granlund .98 evg/60; .55 Eva/60
    Gagner .66 evg/60; 1.45 Eva/60

    Mcd, Drai, Gagner, RNH show as puck distributors.
    Ranges in 38+gm (official) reg seasons
    1C Mcdavid 2.05 to 1.85 eva/60
    2C RNH 1.2 – .92 eva/60
    3C Gagner 1.45 – .81 eva/60
    3C Draisaitl 1.94 – 1.46 eva/60

    3C Khaira 18-19 1.27 eva/60

    5 potential pass distribution centers.
    Gagner needing more of a bench change with pocession push.

    Could it be instead that many of players listed as C on NST are actually playing as wingers?

    Total counts makes sense but I was also interested seeing who’s performing better than they seem.

    Good to hear you acknowledge and are thinking about puck distributors. The flip side of the Oilers having guys who’ve scored goals at solid rates is that many of the same players have not picked up so many assists. Chiasson, Neal, Granlund and Archibald have all picked up assists at 4th line rates for instance (in the last 3 years sample, not splitting up by position). Do you think that’s cause for concern? I’d expect it’s not ideal myself.

    I guess even more than with goal scoring the centers should be getting more touches and more assists than the wingers (all the guys I listed are wingers).

  145. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Hilmar: Don’t know if anyone got back to you, but this might help.

    from https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/fans/where-to-watch

    “Champions Hockey League games can be watched on TV or digital platforms in many countries. In addition to that, we offer free livestreaming on our website and app for territories and games where there is no geoblocking in effect.”

    “CanadaTSNCHL Games available on TSN and TSN GO
    All games not Live on TV/Online are available via the CHL Website/App”

    “USA and its territoriesNHL NetworkCHL Games available on NHL Network
    All games not Live on TV are available via the CHL Website/App”

    Thanks!

  146. jp says:

    Ryan:
    Willis knocks it out the park in a highly depressing read.

    https://theathletic.com/1164101/2019/08/27/willis-can-mikko-koskinen-be-a-quality-starter-for-oilers-in-2019-20/

    https://theathletic.com/1060429/2019/07/04/how-often-do-goalies-like-the-oilers-mike-smith-rebound/

    I might start chasing down info on the 2020 draft at the start of the season.

    One of the positives here, if I could call it that, is that Willis’s conclusion the Oilers May be starting 20-25 goals behind the 8 ball… well that’s the status quote. There’s nowhere to go but up (not actually true). But I do think this is a likely area of growth/improvement vs 18-19, even if it never reaches average.

    It’s more likely IMO that the goaltending is better this season vs last than that it’s worse.

  147. hunter1909 says:

    Death March™ Update:

    Contest, due to overwhelming demand opens September 1st and runs through until the puck drop to open the 2019-20 season.

    All entries to date are being carefully stored until the book re-opens September 1st

    Thank you for your cooperation

    Team Death March

  148. Lowetide says:

    At even strength a year ago, Edmonton posted 172-202 (-30) at even strength via hockey-reference. Lots of smart people (first I saw was Woodguy but there may have been others) have said resting Koskinen would likely have improved his performance. I’m not as down on Edmonton’s goaltending as most, partly because 271 GA is a big number and Dave Tippett is a solid NHL coach. We wait.

  149. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide:
    At even strength a year ago, Edmonton posted 172-202 (-30) at even strength via hockey-reference. Lots of smart people (first I saw was Woodguy but there may have been others) have said resting Koskinen would likely have improved his performance. I’m not as down on Edmonton’s goaltending as most, partly because 271 GA is a big number and Dave Tippett is a solid NHL coach. We wait.

    He’s also apparently recognized that both goalies can really only start 35-40 games each this season (his own words). I think he has a general pre-plan for the team which will be tweaked during and post-camp.

  150. Genjutsu says:

    hunter1909:
    Death March™ Update:

    Contest, due to overwhelming demand opens September 1st and runs through until the puck drop to open the 2019-20 season.

    All entries to date are being carefully stored until the book re-opens September 1st

    Thank you for your cooperation

    Team Death March

    Awesome thanks for this. Can’t wait to be 24 points over again.

  151. Munny says:

    Glovjuice: Lighten up, man. It’s the summer slow season.

    Stunningly ironic.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    At even strength a year ago, Edmonton posted 172-202 (-30) at even strength via hockey-reference. Lots of smart people (first I saw was Woodguy but there may have been others) have said resting Koskinen would likely have improved his performance. I’m not as down on Edmonton’s goaltending as most, partly because 271 GA is a big number and Dave Tippett is a solid NHL coach. We wait.

    I’d like to have a “solid NHL goaltender” to go along with the “solid NHL coach”.

    Perhaps we have one, however, last season provided zero assurances on this.

    More bets.

    We wait.

  153. Andy Dufresne says:

    Georgexs: I read the Mike Smith article.

    1. He uses even strength save percentage. Not sure why; he doesn’t offer an explanation. Goalies have to stop non EV shots as well. He also goes back to 1997-98 for his data. I prefer sticking to 2000-01 when the league expanded to 30 teams.

    2. He uses averages. Averages will be skewed by goalies who are letting in a lot of goals and failing out of the league. Even if they play just a few games. He should consider using medians; how does the middle goalie in the group perform? Is the median 37-year-old goalie any worse than the median goalie at younger ages?

    3. With the first question, the median relative save percentage for the 18 goalies who have played when they were 37 is -0.000484, or just barely shy of league average. That mark was posted by Johan Hedberg in 10-11 with NJD. He played 34 games.

    4. For the second question, let’s use 10 games played to filter out the goalies who aren’t likely to be established and will have weaker stats. Here’s the median relative save percent at each age for seasons from 2000-01 to 2018-19:

    age, players, median rel_sv_pct

    18, 1, -0.009
    19, 3, -0.019
    20, 6, 0.007
    21, 21, 0.001
    22, 49, 0.000
    23, 59, -0.002
    24, 72, -0.001
    25, 100, -0.003
    26, 100, 0.002
    27, 104, 0.001
    28, 107, 0.001
    29, 90, 0.001
    30, 85, -0.002
    31, 79, -0.002
    32, 71, -0.005
    33, 57, 0.001
    34, 51, -0.001
    35, 37, 0.001
    36, 33, -0.003
    37, 15, 0.000
    38, 14, -0.005
    39, 9, -0.006
    40, 4, -0.007
    41, 5, -0.003
    42, 2, -0.017

    So the picture you get is that the typical goalie is basically the typical goalie, regardless of their age. The numbers start to fall off at 38 and after, teams and players hanging on too long. Otherwise, as one would expect for a position as important as goalie, performance doesn’t deteriorate with age. As a forward or as a defenseman, you can play down the order as you age. No such luck if you’re a goalie. You’re all alone out there; if your performance drops, you’re more likely to be dropped. That’s why median performance stays flat across age. (Smith, it’s true, is at the very edge of the safe and cozy age range for goalies.)

    5. He takes Smith to task for his regular season numbers but he makes no mention of Smith’s play in the playoffs. Smith was one of the few Flames who made an appearance in the playoffs, if I remember right. He looked a little more than OK playing behind Calgary’s mostly absent defensive core. Smith had a bad year but he’s also had good years just before that, 3 years playing better than league average sv pct. That’s how he’s stayed in the game and that’s why he’s one of the very few goalies who’s getting a chance to play at 37.

    Thank You for all this work.

    Well reasoned and important perspective.

  154. Andy Dufresne says:

    Hilmar: Don’t know if anyone got back to you, but this might help.

    from https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/fans/where-to-watch

    “Champions Hockey League games can be watched on TV or digital platforms in many countries. In addition to that, we offer free livestreaming on our website and app for territories and games where there is no geoblocking in effect.”

    “CanadaTSNCHL Games available on TSN and TSN GO
    All games not Live on TV/Online are available via the CHL Website/App”

    “USA and its territoriesNHL NetworkCHL Games available on NHL Network
    All games not Live on TV are available via the CHL Website/App”

    Thank You VERY much!!

  155. oil-in-the-blood says:

    AMEN. nuff said. I hope he makes it back in fine form where ever but chances are that he is just not at that level are high.

    frjohnk:
    Over 3 years, ( 406 minutes) JP had 6 goals and 8 assists when on the ice with McDavid.

    Cagguila, Rattie, Kassian, Yak, Pouliot, these are other guys in the JP realm in which McDavid dragged a non top 6 player and got them to score at a near 1st line pace.

    JP had something like near 90% of his time in the NHL with McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl or Strome as his center.If this is not the best center group in the NHL to start an NHL career with, I dont know what is.

    I dont believe that “JP could score with skill” it was more that “the skill could make JP score”

    And really that “skill” was only McDavid.

    JP scored 1.48 pts/60 with Drai
    1.05 with RNH
    0.98 with Strome

    Looking back its clear that his WJC performance was buoyed by playing Aho and Laine , while his scoring stats in Finish league were more Joel Armia than they were Alexander Barkov.

    This team really needed to have JP hit, but he is now in the Yak pile.

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