So long and thanks for all the fish

by Lowetide

Jesse Puljujarvi signed in Finland today, it’s one of those deals that (like Stanfield’s long underwear) has an escape hatch that allows him to sign in the NHL until December 1.

I think this is an attractive situation for both player and team. JP can settle in and play a season where he’s comfortable, and the Oilers aren’t forced into a trade that returns 10 cents on the dollar. There are roster spots where the young Finn scored enough to stay in the lineup but there’s something about that situation that lacked sustain. Perhaps Dave Tippett could have found a way, perhaps he will at another time.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • **New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • **New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • **New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

CURRENT 50-MAN (47)

There are two slides (Broberg and Rodrigue) and RFA Jesse Puljujarvi, meaning the team has three spots open if nothing changes. I think we’ll see at least one acquisition before or during training camp.

This is a satisfactory outcome. Maybe Holland can fly over around Christmas and talk to the young man, start to build a bridge. I know many of you are down on Puljujarvi but for me there’s no good reason to trade him at this time.

Puljujarvi struggled in many areas a year ago but he has one specific spot where he can thrive. Here, again, are the five-on-five per 60 scoring numbers by Edmonton’s wingers with McDavid in 2018-19:

Leon Draisaitl 3.35 (805 minutes)

Drake Caggiula 2.54 (141 minutes)

Zack Kassian 1.96 (428 minutes)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.91 (376 minutes)

Milan Lucic 1.83 (98 minutes)

Jesse Puljujarvi 1.80 (67 minutes)

Ty Rattie 1.72 (244 minutes)

Alex Chiasson 1.48 (284 minutes)

Jujhar Khaira 0.93 (64 minutes)

Kailer Yamamoto 0.00 (84 minutes)

For his brief career so far, JP scores 2.06 per 60 at five-on-five when playing with Connor McDavid, and the duo drills opponents at 55 percent Corsi for five-on-five. I don’t know why the math loves their chemistry while there was apparently none in real life, but it is clear the young Finn wasn’t going to be gifted the world’s best center and we are here.

So long and thanks for all the fish

I sincerely hope Jesse Puljujarvi finds his way, first in Finland and then in the NHL. He is looking for his own place in the sun, you can’t blame a man for being restless to find home. Sail on, Kajaanin Hokki, you came to us in a time of great confusion. Don’t you dare let this experience define you. Keep smiling, big man. We won’t forget you.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, a whole lotta shakin’ going on, TSN1260. The Puljujarvi news will dominate the conversation, with Jonathan Willis from The Athletic chiming in on the breaking news. Andrew Peard will also be around to talk Edmonton Oil Kings as we get ready for another season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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oil-in-the-blood

AMEN. nuff said. I hope he makes it back in fine form where ever but chances are that he is just not at that level are high.

frjohnk:
Over 3 years, ( 406 minutes) JP had 6 goals and 8 assists when on the ice with McDavid.

Cagguila, Rattie, Kassian, Yak, Pouliot, these are other guys in the JP realm in which McDavid dragged a non top 6 player and got them to score at a near 1st line pace.

JP had something like near 90% of his time in the NHL with McDavid, Nuge, Draisaitl or Strome as his center.If this is not the best center group in the NHL to start an NHL career with, I dont know what is.

I dont believe that “JP could score with skill” it was more that “the skill could make JP score”

And really that “skill” was only McDavid.

JP scored 1.48 pts/60 with Drai
1.05 with RNH
0.98 with Strome

Looking back its clear that his WJC performance was buoyed by playing Aho and Laine , while his scoring stats in Finish league were more Joel Armia than they were Alexander Barkov.

This team really needed to have JP hit, but he is now in the Yak pile.

Andy Dufresne

Hilmar: Don’t know if anyone got back to you, but this might help.

from https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/fans/where-to-watch

“Champions Hockey League games can be watched on TV or digital platforms in many countries. In addition to that, we offer free livestreaming on our website and app for territories and games where there is no geoblocking in effect.”

“CanadaTSNCHL Games available on TSN and TSN GO
All games not Live on TV/Online are available via the CHL Website/App”

“USA and its territoriesNHL NetworkCHL Games available on NHL Network
All games not Live on TV are available via the CHL Website/App”

Thank You VERY much!!

Andy Dufresne

Georgexs: I read the Mike Smith article.

1. He uses even strength save percentage. Not sure why; he doesn’t offer an explanation. Goalies have to stop non EV shots as well. He also goes back to 1997-98 for his data. I prefer sticking to 2000-01 when the league expanded to 30 teams.

2. He uses averages. Averages will be skewed by goalies who are letting in a lot of goals and failing out of the league. Even if they play just a few games. He should consider using medians; how does the middle goalie in the group perform? Is the median 37-year-old goalie any worse than the median goalie at younger ages?

3. With the first question, the median relative save percentage for the 18 goalies who have played when they were 37 is -0.000484, or just barely shy of league average. That mark was posted by Johan Hedberg in 10-11 with NJD. He played 34 games.

4. For the second question, let’s use 10 games played to filter out the goalies who aren’t likely to be established and will have weaker stats. Here’s the median relative save percent at each age for seasons from 2000-01 to 2018-19:

age, players, median rel_sv_pct

18, 1, -0.009
19, 3, -0.019
20, 6, 0.007
21, 21, 0.001
22, 49, 0.000
23, 59, -0.002
24, 72, -0.001
25, 100, -0.003
26, 100, 0.002
27, 104, 0.001
28, 107, 0.001
29, 90, 0.001
30, 85, -0.002
31, 79, -0.002
32, 71, -0.005
33, 57, 0.001
34, 51, -0.001
35, 37, 0.001
36, 33, -0.003
37, 15, 0.000
38, 14, -0.005
39, 9, -0.006
40, 4, -0.007
41, 5, -0.003
42, 2, -0.017

So the picture you get is that the typical goalie is basically the typical goalie, regardless of their age. The numbers start to fall off at 38 and after, teams and players hanging on too long. Otherwise, as one would expect for a position as important as goalie, performance doesn’t deteriorate with age. As a forward or as a defenseman, you can play down the order as you age. No such luck if you’re a goalie. You’re all alone out there; if your performance drops, you’re more likely to be dropped. That’s why median performance stays flat across age. (Smith, it’s true, is at the very edge of the safe and cozy age range for goalies.)

5. He takes Smith to task for his regular season numbers but he makes no mention of Smith’s play in the playoffs. Smith was one of the few Flames who made an appearance in the playoffs, if I remember right. He looked a little more than OK playing behind Calgary’s mostly absent defensive core. Smith had a bad year but he’s also had good years just before that, 3 years playing better than league average sv pct. That’s how he’s stayed in the game and that’s why he’s one of the very few goalies who’s getting a chance to play at 37.

Thank You for all this work.

Well reasoned and important perspective.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide:
At even strength a year ago, Edmonton posted 172-202 (-30) at even strength via hockey-reference. Lots of smart people (first I saw was Woodguy but there may have been others) have said resting Koskinen would likely have improved his performance. I’m not as down on Edmonton’s goaltending as most, partly because 271 GA is a big number and Dave Tippett is a solid NHL coach. We wait.

I’d like to have a “solid NHL goaltender” to go along with the “solid NHL coach”.

Perhaps we have one, however, last season provided zero assurances on this.

More bets.

We wait.

Munny

Glovjuice: Lighten up, man. It’s the summer slow season.

Stunningly ironic.

Genjutsu

hunter1909:
Death March™ Update:

Contest, due to overwhelming demand opens September 1st and runs through until the puck drop to open the 2019-20 season.

All entries to date are being carefully stored until the book re-opens September 1st

Thank you for your cooperation

Team Death March

Awesome thanks for this. Can’t wait to be 24 points over again.

Professor Q

Lowetide:
At even strength a year ago, Edmonton posted 172-202 (-30) at even strength via hockey-reference. Lots of smart people (first I saw was Woodguy but there may have been others) have said resting Koskinen would likely have improved his performance. I’m not as down on Edmonton’s goaltending as most, partly because 271 GA is a big number and Dave Tippett is a solid NHL coach. We wait.

He’s also apparently recognized that both goalies can really only start 35-40 games each this season (his own words). I think he has a general pre-plan for the team which will be tweaked during and post-camp.

hunter1909

Death March™ Update:

Contest, due to overwhelming demand opens September 1st and runs through until the puck drop to open the 2019-20 season.

All entries to date are being carefully stored until the book re-opens September 1st

Thank you for your cooperation

Team Death March

jp

Ryan:
Willis knocks it out the park in a highly depressing read.

https://theathletic.com/1164101/2019/08/27/willis-can-mikko-koskinen-be-a-quality-starter-for-oilers-in-2019-20/

https://theathletic.com/1060429/2019/07/04/how-often-do-goalies-like-the-oilers-mike-smith-rebound/

I might start chasing down info on the 2020 draft at the start of the season.

One of the positives here, if I could call it that, is that Willis’s conclusion the Oilers May be starting 20-25 goals behind the 8 ball… well that’s the status quote. There’s nowhere to go but up (not actually true). But I do think this is a likely area of growth/improvement vs 18-19, even if it never reaches average.

It’s more likely IMO that the goaltending is better this season vs last than that it’s worse.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Hilmar: Don’t know if anyone got back to you, but this might help.

from https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/fans/where-to-watch

“Champions Hockey League games can be watched on TV or digital platforms in many countries. In addition to that, we offer free livestreaming on our website and app for territories and games where there is no geoblocking in effect.”

“CanadaTSNCHL Games available on TSN and TSN GO
All games not Live on TV/Online are available via the CHL Website/App”

“USA and its territoriesNHL NetworkCHL Games available on NHL Network
All games not Live on TV are available via the CHL Website/App”

Thanks!

jp

rickithebear:
JP:
I break down the grouping by LW,C, RW.
Cause the HD area chart has higher success rate from a central shot than from the wings given equal distance.
Reflected in higher potential open space.

Their are more C in your groups.

That is why I look at top 62 LW, C, RW.

Some here have said they all get equal time Central HD area time.
That centers are just better goal scorers.
What a crock!

Their is a natural advantage to traditional structure.

So I showed top Evg total because it is a combination of evg/60 & EVTOI.

Plus it is clear you need distributors on every line.
Elite distributes can pass people open.
But most distributors are dependent on finish ability of shooters.
Top Evg total and top evg/60 players are good to have.

I am being evg centric cause they are finishers we want.

Looking at 17-18 & 18-19 their is a clear reduction in median save% from .918 to .912
Average for 2 years.

When you look at 1st line (1-31); 2Nd line (32-62); third line (63-93) based on minutes
You get all kinds of varied range per group 1.6 to .38 evg/60 for 2nd LW; 1.98 – .64 eva/60 1st RW

Looking at top 31, #32-62, #63-93 evg/60 & eva/60 for LW, C, RW from last 2 seasons.
LW:
Top 31 LW 1.48 – 1.00 evg/60; 1.93 – 1.18 eva/60
#32-62 LW .99 – .81 evg/60; 1.15 – 1.00 eva/60
#63 – 93 .81 – .65 evg/60; .99 – .87 eva/60

C:
Top 31 C 1.53 – 1.00 evg/60; 2.05 – 1.48 eva/60
#32 – 62 C .99 – .81 evg/60; 1.47 – 1.22 eva/60
#63 – 93 C .81 – .74 evg/69; 1.22 – 1.06 eva/60

RW:
Top 31 RW 1.6 – .91 evg/60; 1.98 – 1.18 eva/60
#32 – 62 RW .91 – .72 evg/60; 1.17 – .93 eva/60
#63 – 93 RW .71 – .49 evg/60; .93 – .72 eva/60

18-19
Mcdavid C 1.27 evg/60; 2.05 Eva/60
Draisaitl W 1.25 evg/60; 1.70 Eva/60
Gagner EDM RW .95 evg/60; .95 Eva/60
RNH C .92 evg/60; 1.01 Eva/60
Archibald RW .89 evg/60; .67 Eva/60
Kassian RW .79 evg/60; .62 Eva/60
Chaisson RW .78 evg/60; .48 Eva/60
Granlund LW .70 evg/60; .56 Eva/60

17-18
Neal 1.15 evg/60; .86 Eva/60
Jurco 1.02 evg/60; .68 Eva/60
Khaira .80 evg/60; . 64 Eva/60

16-17
Granlund .98 evg/60; .55 Eva/60
Gagner .66 evg/60; 1.45 Eva/60

Mcd, Drai, Gagner, RNH show as puck distributors.
Ranges in 38+gm (official) reg seasons
1C Mcdavid 2.05 to 1.85 eva/60
2C RNH 1.2 – .92 eva/60
3C Gagner 1.45 – .81 eva/60
3C Draisaitl 1.94 – 1.46 eva/60

3C Khaira 18-19 1.27 eva/60

5 potential pass distribution centers.
Gagner needing more of a bench change with pocession push.

Could it be instead that many of players listed as C on NST are actually playing as wingers?

Total counts makes sense but I was also interested seeing who’s performing better than they seem.

Good to hear you acknowledge and are thinking about puck distributors. The flip side of the Oilers having guys who’ve scored goals at solid rates is that many of the same players have not picked up so many assists. Chiasson, Neal, Granlund and Archibald have all picked up assists at 4th line rates for instance (in the last 3 years sample, not splitting up by position). Do you think that’s cause for concern? I’d expect it’s not ideal myself.

I guess even more than with goal scoring the centers should be getting more touches and more assists than the wingers (all the guys I listed are wingers).

Hilmar

GordieHoweHatTrick: If you find the stream, please post!

Don’t know if anyone got back to you, but this might help.

from https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/fans/where-to-watch

“Champions Hockey League games can be watched on TV or digital platforms in many countries. In addition to that, we offer free livestreaming on our website and app for territories and games where there is no geoblocking in effect.”

“Canada TSN CHL Games available on TSN and TSN GO
All games not Live on TV/Online are available via the CHL Website/App”

“USA and its territories NHL Network CHL Games available on NHL Network
All games not Live on TV are available via the CHL Website/App”

jp

Munny: Probably lol.

I’m not trying to establish an LT RE here.

I’m talking about what needs to happen for Holland to get a trade offer he thinks is reasonable, and what Pujo himself should have as a goal, if he’s claiming to be a Top 6 winger right now.

According to Spector today, he believes Holland is looking for a 2nd rounder and a prospect.

Just so happens that a 2nd round 19 yo, who has yet to establish himself as a top 6 talent, played for Karpat last year and put up .92 ppg.That’s my line in the sand for a player who has basically said to the org “I’ll show you I’m a top 6er” and also my line in the sand for Holland getting his ask.

Now one of the things Pujo will want to prove is that he is one motivated fella. And playing in Finland removes all excuses… language, ice size, ice time etc.

Thus I don’t think my line in the sand is “unreasonable” lol.

One would hope that under ideal circumstances we see a step forward from even his year one performance.

The worst case scenarios are, of course:

1. He gets injured
2. His regression continues or flatlines

Well yeah, that’s entirely different from what I’ve been talking about. So yes, I totally agree the bar is a ton higher if we’re looking at recouping value on Puljujarvi.

I’m not sure though what Hepioniemi has to do with anything. He had a great draft +2 year. He’s a waif, and maybe he outperoforms his draft projections. Aho was similar, 2nd round pick who killed it after being drafted. Very little relevance to Puljujarvi here IMO.

And yes, the worst case here is quite bad.

Glovjuice

Reja: Stockholm oops I mean Helsinki Syndrome.

Well done. I noticed. He sure is looking like a genius now isn’t he. Well, aside from his team missing the playoffs for the next half decade.

Glovjuice

Side:
I think we can all agree that policing the forum and policing who/what people cheer for is the most fun, liberating and respectable hobby of them all.

Lighten up, man. It’s the summer slow season.

Glovjuice

Yeti: Cheering for the prospects has been my primary pursuit since 2006. It is fun.

Since the Hall draft for me as well till the 16-17 playoffs but NOT since then. A disgraceful tire fire since then.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: “hot shirt off pics”? Twitter?

Can’t I cheer for both?

You sure can, dude.

Thought it was here but maybe Twitter (that you posted here). Anyways, Twitter and here are my only vices so those are the only options.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: That’s the high bar once teams get there rosters in order Jesse plus or a asset will get us a 3C that can play 2C in a pinch PK and win faceoffs. Holland and Tippett weren’t brought in for a development year with McDavid and Leon’s clock ticking they were brought in to make the playoffs without harming the future.

Holland was brought in to build a Stanley Cup contender over the next few years – that’s been clear from his verbal, his actions and his non-actions.

Scungilli Slushy

To me next season is wide open. Nobody is stacked because of hot ELCs that I can think of. Incumbents are old, unbalanced, or out of control.

Throw it sisters and brothers!

Scungilli Slushy

A lot of whiners lately.

So if the Oilers are so awful and doomed to failure, put up your choices for teams that are going to get it done. That are built so much better, in a capped league, with an expansion draft ready to steal.

Complaining gets boring fast. Put your money where your mouth is, please.

I won’t be awful later, but will point it out if I remember or care then. Put up or shut up so to speak.

Reja

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Huh? The bright shiny wrapping paper and the glossy ribbon has been removed from the package. All the GM’s know what is inside, not just the guy from Columbus (got that right this time just for you Juice).

#TeamOil #SuckItPoolAndTheAgentYouRodeInOn

Stockholm oops I mean Helsinki Syndrome.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Kinger_Oil.redux:

– Not a peep in the direction like “pool is an amazing kid huge upside. We’ve let him down and acknowledge we’ve got to be better. We really need his big body speed and skill”

-#teamPool#suck it Oiler management #

Huh? The bright shiny wrapping paper and the glossy ribbon has been removed from the package. All the GM’s know what is inside, not just the guy from Columbus (got that right this time just for you Juice).

#TeamOil #SuckItPoolAndTheAgentYouRodeInOn

Reja

Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Well, I guess no one is going to acquire him then.

That’s the high bar once teams get there rosters in order Jesse plus or a asset will get us a 3C that can play 2C in a pinch PK and win faceoffs. Holland and Tippett weren’t brought in for a development year with McDavid and Leon’s clock ticking they were brought in to make the playoffs without harming the future.

Munny

jp: Anyway, it seems clear our disconnect has largely been about answering different questions.

Probably lol.

I’m not trying to establish an LT RE here.

I’m talking about what needs to happen for Holland to get a trade offer he thinks is reasonable, and what Pujo himself should have as a goal, if he’s claiming to be a Top 6 winger right now.

According to Spector today, he believes Holland is looking for a 2nd rounder and a prospect.

Just so happens that a 2nd round 19 yo, who has yet to establish himself as a top 6 talent, played for Karpat last year and put up .92 ppg. That’s my line in the sand for a player who has basically said to the org “I’ll show you I’m a top 6er” and also my line in the sand for Holland getting his ask.

Now one of the things Pujo will want to prove is that he is one motivated fella. And playing in Finland removes all excuses… language, ice size, ice time etc.

Thus I don’t think my line in the sand is “unreasonable” lol.

One would hope that under ideal circumstances we see a step forward from even his year one performance.

The worst case scenarios are, of course:

1. He gets injured
2. His regression continues or flatlines

Georgexs

Ryan:
Willis knocks it out the park in a highly depressing read.

https://theathletic.com/1164101/2019/08/27/willis-can-mikko-koskinen-be-a-quality-starter-for-oilers-in-2019-20/

https://theathletic.com/1060429/2019/07/04/how-often-do-goalies-like-the-oilers-mike-smith-rebound/

I might start chasing down info on the 2020 draft at the start of the season.

I read the Mike Smith article.

1. He uses even strength save percentage. Not sure why; he doesn’t offer an explanation. Goalies have to stop non EV shots as well. He also goes back to 1997-98 for his data. I prefer sticking to 2000-01 when the league expanded to 30 teams.

2. He uses averages. Averages will be skewed by goalies who are letting in a lot of goals and failing out of the league. Even if they play just a few games. He should consider using medians; how does the middle goalie in the group perform? Is the median 37-year-old goalie any worse than the median goalie at younger ages?

3. With the first question, the median relative save percentage for the 18 goalies who have played when they were 37 is -0.000484, or just barely shy of league average. That mark was posted by Johan Hedberg in 10-11 with NJD. He played 34 games.

4. For the second question, let’s use 10 games played to filter out the goalies who aren’t likely to be established and will have weaker stats. Here’s the median relative save percent at each age for seasons from 2000-01 to 2018-19:

age, players, median rel_sv_pct

18, 1, -0.009
19, 3, -0.019
20, 6, 0.007
21, 21, 0.001
22, 49, 0.000
23, 59, -0.002
24, 72, -0.001
25, 100, -0.003
26, 100, 0.002
27, 104, 0.001
28, 107, 0.001
29, 90, 0.001
30, 85, -0.002
31, 79, -0.002
32, 71, -0.005
33, 57, 0.001
34, 51, -0.001
35, 37, 0.001
36, 33, -0.003
37, 15, 0.000
38, 14, -0.005
39, 9, -0.006
40, 4, -0.007
41, 5, -0.003
42, 2, -0.017

So the picture you get is that the typical goalie is basically the typical goalie, regardless of their age. The numbers start to fall off at 38 and after, teams and players hanging on too long. Otherwise, as one would expect for a position as important as goalie, performance doesn’t deteriorate with age. As a forward or as a defenseman, you can play down the order as you age. No such luck if you’re a goalie. You’re all alone out there; if your performance drops, you’re more likely to be dropped. That’s why median performance stays flat across age. (Smith, it’s true, is at the very edge of the safe and cozy age range for goalies.)

5. He takes Smith to task for his regular season numbers but he makes no mention of Smith’s play in the playoffs. Smith was one of the few Flames who made an appearance in the playoffs, if I remember right. He looked a little more than OK playing behind Calgary’s mostly absent defensive core. Smith had a bad year but he’s also had good years just before that, 3 years playing better than league average sv pct. That’s how he’s stayed in the game and that’s why he’s one of the very few goalies who’s getting a chance to play at 37.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

ArmchairGM: Fans of other teams don’t want to give up more than a 3rd – and no prospect. Who is right?

oh, and every other GM in the NHL. And pretty much everyone else except Jesse and his agent, both of whom probably think his shit smells like roses.

Pretty sure Jesse is staying in Europe for a very long time. A third or forth, which is probably the best you can expect, is like pocket change to the Oil. They drop that on the ground all the time (often on a goalie lottery ticket) without even thinking to pick it up.

Reja

Glovjuice: Must be so liberating to have so much fun following a team that has failed epically for so long. Especially for someone who has followed them for so long like you. I can tell you are in the same age range as me from your hot shirt off pics from the Far East last year and I can’t believe you can still cheer for prospects when we should be cheering for a repeat final appearance or something.

Gag me with a spoon!

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

ArmchairGM: Fans of other teams don’t want to give up more than a 3rd – and no prospect. Who is right?

Fans.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Munny:
Spector on ON:

Believes it will take at least a 2nd rounder + prospect to acquire Pujo.

Well, I guess no one is going to acquire him then.

Side

I think we can all agree that policing the forum and policing who/what people cheer for is the most fun, liberating and respectable hobby of them all.

Yeti

Glovjuice: Must be so liberating to have so much fun following a team that has failed epically for so long. Especially for someone who has followed them for so long like you. I can tell you are in the same age range as me from your hot shirt off pics from the Far East last year and I can’t believe you can still cheer for prospects when we should be cheering for a repeat final appearance or something.

Cheering for the prospects has been my primary pursuit since 2006. It is fun.

Yeti

OriginalPouzar: Recall, he wasn’t just free to sign anywhere – I can’t remember which team but one of the KHL teams holds his rights.

I’d indeed forgotten that – thanks! Torpedo Nizhni Novgorod has the rights, I think.

OriginalPouzar

Glovjuice: Must be so liberating to have so much fun following a team that has failed epically for so long. Especially for someone who has followed them for so long like you. I can tell you are in the same age range as me from your hot shirt off pics from the Far East last year and I can’t believe you can still cheer for prospects when we should be cheering for a repeat final appearance or something.

“hot shirt off pics”? Twitter?

Can’t I cheer for both?

defmn

Kinger_Oil.redux:

– Pool is totally acting in his best interest: and that’s not showing up to camp on a team that doesn’t rate him nor have had a positive thing to say or a teammate giving a shout out to him. Good for Pool.

-#teamPool#suck it Oiler management #

There certainly hasn’t been much support for Puljujarvi from his teammates but I do believe it was reported that McDavid contacted him when this all first came out.

Again, not much, but the captain did make a call.

Ryan
ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Wow, I was polite and respectful in my post – its unfortunate the same was returned.

I thought that we generally talk about somewhat reasonable possibilities in this community and the conversation was a real one regarding what would help increase his value and should be expected.

I want to see Tyler Benson dominate the NHL this year and score 90 points – just as unreasonable to expect/hope for in my mind.

Oh well.

Wow, arrogant AND condescending. Good job.

Side

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Side,

– It’s pretty easy to understand Oil think through media.

– Holland has been clear that there are no outs for pool and he isn’t rated. Not once has he publicly bigged him up. That’s a tell. Just as Neal is top shape rebound or nada re:McD

– It’s not tippets or Holland’s job to atone for previous regimes.

– Old regimes didn’t rate pool and treated him as such. New regime doesn’t have any skin in game

– If Pool is yak2.0 great call. But Pool has been mishandled and is actually controlling the situation: he’d rather play overseas than be cast as a 4rth line 12 minute no PP time.

– Good for him. And if he sucks good call by Oiler management

I can see Holland pumping up Neal – he is the one Holland traded for after all.

But Jesse? Holland came into a position where JP and his agent had seemingly made up their minds already. Holland has said he would welcome him back so there’s no need to gush over a player that doesn’t want to be there. Gushing to the media doesn’t increase JP’s value either so there’s no real point. And no matter the spin the Oilers put on the situation, their spin isn’t more damaging than the verbal coming from JP and his agent.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: I’m quite excited about Konovolov – his numbers as a rookie in the KHL are very impressive even taking in to account the low scoring nature of the league. McCurdy/Staples on their podcast a little while ago got me all excited about this kid and its great that all three of our goalies have 2 years left on their deals – the org will be in a great position to decide which 1, 2 or 3 to sign and will have more info on Rodrigue as well.

The Condors were so much fun to watch last year and this team should be even moreso.Nope, all the talked about prospects won’t make it but, at the same time, the depth of “REAL PROSPECTS”, with legit NHL chances, boggles me – just so much different than what we are used to.Each of the following are real propspects and may spend varying degrees of time on the team:

Lagesson
Jones
Bear
Persson (potential adjustment stint)
Samorukov
Bouchard

Benson
Marody
Maksimov
Safin
McLeod
Yamamoto
Joe G.

Must be so liberating to have so much fun following a team that has failed epically for so long. Especially for someone who has followed them for so long like you. I can tell you are in the same age range as me from your hot shirt off pics from the Far East last year and I can’t believe you can still cheer for prospects when we should be cheering for a repeat final appearance or something.

rickithebear

JP:
I break down the grouping by LW, C, RW.
Cause the HD area chart has higher success rate from a central shot than from the wings given equal distance.
Reflected in higher potential open space.

Their are more C in your groups.

That is why I look at top 62 LW, C, RW.

Some here have said they all get equal time Central HD area time.
That centers are just better goal scorers.
What a crock!

Their is a natural advantage to traditional structure.

So I showed top Evg total because it is a combination of evg/60 & EVTOI.

Plus it is clear you need distributors on every line.
Elite distributes can pass people open.
But most distributors are dependent on finish ability of shooters.
Top Evg total and top evg/60 players are good to have.

I am being evg centric cause they are finishers we want.

Looking at 17-18 & 18-19 their is a clear reduction in median save% from .918 to .912
Average for 2 years.

When you look at 1st line (1-31); 2Nd line (32-62); third line (63-93) based on minutes
You get all kinds of varied range per group 1.6 to .38 evg/60 for 2nd LW; 1.98 – .64 eva/60 1st RW

Looking at top 31, #32-62, #63-93 evg/60 & eva/60 for LW, C, RW from last 2 seasons.
LW:
Top 31 LW 1.48 – 1.00 evg/60; 1.93 – 1.18 eva/60
#32-62 LW .99 – .81 evg/60; 1.15 – 1.00 eva/60
#63 – 93 .81 – .65 evg/60; .99 – .87 eva/60

C:
Top 31 C 1.53 – 1.00 evg/60; 2.05 – 1.48 eva/60
#32 – 62 C .99 – .81 evg/60; 1.47 – 1.22 eva/60
#63 – 93 C .81 – .74 evg/69; 1.22 – 1.06 eva/60

RW:
Top 31 RW 1.6 – .91 evg/60; 1.98 – 1.18 eva/60
#32 – 62 RW .91 – .72 evg/60; 1.17 – .93 eva/60
#63 – 93 RW .71 – .49 evg/60; .93 – .72 eva/60

18-19
Mcdavid C 1.27 evg/60; 2.05 Eva/60
Draisaitl W 1.25 evg/60; 1.70 Eva/60
Gagner EDM RW .95 evg/60; .95 Eva/60
RNH C .92 evg/60; 1.01 Eva/60
Archibald RW .89 evg/60; .67 Eva/60
Kassian RW .79 evg/60; .62 Eva/60
Chaisson RW .78 evg/60; .48 Eva/60
Granlund LW .70 evg/60; .56 Eva/60

17-18
Neal 1.15 evg/60; .86 Eva/60
Jurco 1.02 evg/60; .68 Eva/60
Khaira .80 evg/60; . 64 Eva/60

16-17
Granlund .98 evg/60; .55 Eva/60
Gagner .66 evg/60; 1.45 Eva/60

Mcd, Drai, Gagner, RNH show as puck distributors.
Ranges in 38+gm (official) reg seasons
1C Mcdavid 2.05 to 1.85 eva/60
2C RNH 1.2 – .92 eva/60
3C Gagner 1.45 – .81 eva/60
3C Draisaitl 1.94 – 1.46 eva/60

3C Khaira 18-19 1.27 eva/60

5 potential pass distribution centers.
Gagner needing more of a bench change with pocession push.

OriginalPouzar

Munny: That would be a poorer scoring rate than a 19yo 2nd rounder put up for the Karpat team this past season, and much poorer than Aho’s 18 yo season with the same club.IMO, .75 ppg would be quite disappointing.

He should be tearing the cover off the ball in that League.

Given the scoring leaders over the last number of years in the league and their general ages, I don’t think that’s reasonable for this 21 year old.

Sure, if he was trending to reach his draft day potential, I would expect him to tear up the league but we aren’t there right now.

His trade value isn’t worth a recent second rounder with good arrows and I wouldn’t expect him to perform materially better than that player – not yet

My expectation is to be very good offensive player who produces solid to very good numbers and also has a plus 2-way game – that’s his game.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Damn! Do you read anything before you reply? Allow me to quote myself:

“I’d like to see”

“these numbers would constitute “lighting it up” and “dominating” the league”

I didn’t say this was a reasonable expectation. I want Jesse to explode offensively so we get the maximum possible return for the asset, which I think peaks at a mid 1st rounder. Maybe Holland can right the wrong of 2015.

Wow, I was polite and respectful in my post – its unfortunate the same was returned.

I thought that we generally talk about somewhat reasonable possibilities in this community and the conversation was a real one regarding what would help increase his value and should be expected.

I want to see Tyler Benson dominate the NHL this year and score 90 points – just as unreasonable to expect/hope for in my mind.

Oh well.

OriginalPouzar

KingerOilredux:
– I’m mildly disappointed but not surprised by the Oiler management reaction to situation

– Holland clearly taking direction from those who have dealt with pool and are still with the organization

– Not a peep in the direction like “pool is an amazing kid huge upside. We’ve let him down and acknowledge we’ve got to be better. We really need his big body speed and skill”

– Rather: “ we will trade him when we get a good deal”

– The only two plus outcomes are that pool lights it up overseas and other teams pay up for him or Holland gets to know him and believes in him.

– Pool is totally acting in his best interest: and that’s not showing up to camp on a team that doesn’t rate him nor have had a positive thing to say or a teammate giving a shout out to him. Good for Pool.

-#teamPool#suck it Oiler management #

I see nothing that indicates that Holland is taking direction from anyone. Ensuring the trade is right for the team and not making a trade for the sake of it is right up his ally. Feel free to explain.

Not sure why Holland should talk about any fails of old management – he was clear at the beginning that Jesse would be welcomed back and has never stated otherwise as Jesse and his agent kept putting out verbals. He was express about mending relationships with players in Detroit.

This is a just turned 21 kid who has underperformed. The organization has culpability in that but the player has much as well – and his agent.

100% trade him when a satisfactory deal comes along. The Oilers hold his rights – that is how professional sports works – they don’t owe him anything – they’ve offered him a contract at almost $1M – he can still take it.

jp

Munny:
jp,

He should be a top 10 player in that League with his pedigree.20th would be pretty disappointing IMO, and I doubt it would be enough to boost his present trade value.

If he posts .75 ppg in the Liiga, he’s looking at an NHLe somewhere around 22 points, which is nowhere near the Top 6 player he is purporting himself to be.

With his toolkit, and an 18 month age advantage, if he can’t post as many points per game as a 19 year old sliver of a player who was drafted 36 spots later, he is not improving his trade value.That line in the sand is .92 ppg. I don’t think it is unreasonable to think he should do as well or better.

If he doesn’t, we’re staring a 3rd rounder coming back square in the eyes.

Are we talking about reasonable? Or are we talking about improving his trade value? Is expecting him to improve his trade value reasonable?

0.75 PPG is about 22 NHL points. That’s what he scored 2 years ago and well ahead of this past seasons pace. Isn’t 0.75PPG actually very reasonable?

Anyway, it seems clear our disconnect has largely been about answering different questions. Earlier I had 0.8-0.9PPG in my head as the range that 1) was reasonable and 2) shouldn’t be disappointing. 0.9 was a Liiga top 10 scorer and 0.8 a top 20. Any less I’d be some degree of disappointed. More I’d be pleased. Maybe our respective expectations here aren’t so far off.

OriginalPouzar

Munny:
Pronman will be on Oilers Now discussing his Farm Ranking list tomorrow for those interested.

Great tip – will have to listen tomorrow night when clients are only partially demanding – still haven’t had a chance to read his piece.

Professor Q

OriginalPouzar: Recall, he wasn’t just free to sign anywhere – I can’t remember which team but one of the KHL teams holds his rights.

Oh, I guess that’s right. Didn’t think about that.

Torpedo Nizhni Novgorod offered him a contract, so they’re likely the team that has his rights, then.

By the way, I think their jerseys are bad-ass. A great color combo and a cool red stag as a logo! They might be my new favourite KHL team (although Jokerit is up there).

OriginalPouzar

Yeti: There’s a lot of people around here who have (unfairly) downgraded him from asset to just ass.
But let’s hope he’s now on an upward trajectory. That said, part of me wishes he’d gone to the KHL as it might have been more beneficial for both his hockey abilities and accumulation of life experience. Karpat is the ultimate convenience destination whereas Jokerit or a Russian club would have been a sterner test and development opportunity.

Recall, he wasn’t just free to sign anywhere – I can’t remember which team but one of the KHL teams holds his rights.

OriginalPouzar

Munny:
Holland:


“I don’t know that him signing in Finland has a huge effect on the situation,” Holland said on Tuesday morning, adding that is better for everyone that Puljujarvi is playing somewhere rather than holding out. “I’ve had conversations with numerous clubs that have had interest, some interest, in acquiring Jesse. And I have had, probably in the last 10 days, two or three new teams reach out to me. Teams whose positions have changed, and are checking into the Puljujarvi situation.


“I’ll do a deal if I feel good that I’m making a deal in the best interests of the Edmonton Oilers.”

Loving the fact that Holland isn’t willing to trade without value coming back – Mattheson says he’s requiring a pick and a prospect – atta boy Ken.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: Fitch, Moody’s and SP as of this morning has downgraded Jesse as a valuable asset to just asset

DBRS is holding…..

Kinger_Oil.redux

Yeti,

Material Elvis,

– There is blame on both sides. GMs talk up players they like for a living

– If there is disagreement about the deployment development linemates minutes PP allowing for mistakes vs development I guess that’s the disconnect.

– We have so much albeit small sample and training camps that show pool in a very positive top6 play with skill winger. But as ricki amd others have shown other non elite players get far more time with the skill players over and over for years.

– The oil have concluded he’s not a top6 option. That’s their belief. Pool believes they are wrong.

– And I think he’s right. And even if he isn’t the Oil have decided for him. So it’s his career. The next contract depends on how he does. He’s not going to do well with the Oil.

– I am probably out to lunch. I am often. But I’m certain Pool is handling it correctly given the situation. As are the Oilers given they don’t rate him