Early Rushes

by Lowetide

I’ll be publishing my ‘reasonable expectations’ series (it’s four posts, most likely) over at The Athletic beginning next week. I have the numbers but haven’t written it yet, meaning there’s some fun items that might be talking points on a late August morning. So, here goes.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

NOTES

There are some things that are interesting about the RE projections. I have the young forwards emerging around mid-season or later, and there’s going to be roster turnover around the trade deadline (or sooner).

The highest scoring rookie forward is Cooper Marody, he also has the highest five-on-five per 60 scoring rate. No surprise there, Eric Rodgers estimated Marody’s even-strength points-per-60 was 2.38 during his rookie AHL season. Tyler Benson also posts solid numbers, but both men play less than half a season. Benson’s even-strength points-per-60 estimate (Rodgers) is 2.00 and that is reflected in my estimate.

I have the Oilers forwards scoring 208 times, that’s nine more than a year ago.

Top six forwards behind the big three include the obvious (Neal, Kassian and Chiasson) but also Sam Gagner, Joakim Nygard and Markus Granlund. I tried like hell to keep Gagner on a depth line but it’s harder than it looks.

Third line centers include Jujhar Khaira, Gaetan Haas, Colby Cave and later Marody. The four men score (as a group) 14 goals. The 2018-19 No. 3 centres (Ryan Strome, Cave, Khaira, Spooner, Brad Malone) scored eight goals.

OPENING NIGHT (EXPECTED)

Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson
Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner
Extra: Tomas Jurco, Colby Cave
Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson
Oscar Klefbom—Joel Persson
Kris Russell—Matt Benning
Extra: Caleb Jones
Mikko Koskinen (Mike Smith)

TRADES

The other thing worth mentioning is trades. I see several selloff deals around the deadline, both to make room and to stock up on picks. Candidates include Markus Granlund, Josh Archibald, Jujhar Khaira, Sam Gagner, Zack Kassian, Kris Russell, Matt Benning.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back on the radio at 10 this morning, TSN1260. A busy weekend means a lot to talk about, including the massive Andrew Luck announcement and the ridiculous reaction that followed. Jason Gregor will also join us to chat about the Eskimos as they head into the biggest two weeks of the year and your comments are welcome. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: The roster Holland inherited wasn’t as good as the one Chiarelli did, but Holland has spent $11.25M on roster contracts and has about $750k in space above that, so as far as cap space / spending money it’s not as far off as you think.

How many of those contracts are for term? I believe an entire one of them is for longer than one year.

godot10

jp: Is that correct? This is from Wiki:

“Players who play ice hockey outside North America during a regular season and who are not on loan from or whose playing rights are not already owned by an NHL club (that is, the player is not already on a team’s 90-player reserve list such as a qualified restricted free agent or a draft pick) must also be placed on waivers if they are signed to play in the NHL. If the player is picked up by another NHL club on waivers, the player must be placed on waivers again before a further trade or loan can take place.”

I think that rule only applies to UFAs or other players who’s rights aren’t owned by an NHL club.

I goofed. I shouldn’t post before I’ve had a cup of coffee. The OIlers can bring him back without waivers. For anybody else, he would have to clear waivers. Calgary had to waive O’Reilly. Colorado didn’t. Me Bad.

Professor Q

Another “news” release is Pronman ranking Edmonton 9th in prospect pipelines.

I feel like that’s an okay ranking, but they could be higher.

Also interesting that despite his praise of Bouchard, he’s still a bit down on him, at least when he addresses it in the comments. It actually seems like he’s singing his praises in his description but then pumping the brakes hard when responding to comments (only a “slight bump”). Bouchard performed well when actually playing for the Oilers and Condors, yet somehow he’ll barely become a top line D? Repeated an elite performance, which had been doubted by Pronman and others, yet isn’t given an Elite ranking?

Also, despite giving Benson a pass on injuries, he didn’t even mention them in his description of Safin (I still have hope!).

jp

Harlekiini:
The deal with Puljujärvi and Kärpät has been all over sports news here in Finland, so at least at the moment it’s rather easy to follow him. I’m not sure how much I have to offer, but at least I can link and translate some of the news about him during the season if anything interesting comes up. On that note, my english is not exactly perfect, so sorry if my writing is weird at times.

One thing that I find interesting is that there have been some opinions that it’s not a good idea for Puljujärvi to come back to Finland. The point is that Puljujärvis problems seem to be related to living abroad, so it would have made more sense to go and play in Sweden or Switzerland rather than to go back to Oulu. Here is a link to a column about that: https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/nakokulma-jesse-puljujarven-nhl-ura-vakavasti-uhattuna-onko-tuttu-ja-turvallinen-oulu-paras-paikka-juuri-tassa-vaiheessa-uraa/7525824

So far so good with your writing and the content.

That is an interesting article. A little bit surprising to hear from media in Finland that Puljujarvi would be better off elsewhere.

jp

ArmchairGM:

This isn’t a priority and perhaps Bouchard can fill this role 2-3 years down the road, but I wouldn’t be opposed to targeting a guy like Spurgeon next summer if the term is reasonable and his play hasn’t dropped off. By then we’ll have some idea about Persson, Bear, Lagesson and Jones – and more clarity on Nurse, too.

Spurgeon would be a wonderful addition to the Oilers blueline but he’ll be a couple of months off 31 when next season starts. I have a hard time imagining a UFA deal he’d plausibly sign that would be value for the term of the deal.

That said, Holland isn’t shy about mid-30’s players so you never know.

jp

godot10: The December option means nothing.Once Puljujarvi plays an actual game in Europe, he has to clear waivers to return to the NHL this year…i.e. Ryan O’Reilly. The OIlers or somebody else can sign him, but he has to clear league wide waivers to return to play this season.

Is that correct? This is from Wiki:

“Players who play ice hockey outside North America during a regular season and who are not on loan from or whose playing rights are not already owned by an NHL club (that is, the player is not already on a team’s 90-player reserve list such as a qualified restricted free agent or a draft pick) must also be placed on waivers if they are signed to play in the NHL. If the player is picked up by another NHL club on waivers, the player must be placed on waivers again before a further trade or loan can take place.”

I think that rule only applies to UFAs or other players who’s rights aren’t owned by an NHL club.

Harlekiini

The deal with Puljujärvi and Kärpät has been all over sports news here in Finland, so at least at the moment it’s rather easy to follow him. I’m not sure how much I have to offer, but at least I can link and translate some of the news about him during the season if anything interesting comes up. On that note, my english is not exactly perfect, so sorry if my writing is weird at times.

One thing that I find interesting is that there have been some opinions that it’s not a good idea for Puljujärvi to come back to Finland. The point is that Puljujärvis problems seem to be related to living abroad, so it would have made more sense to go and play in Sweden or Switzerland rather than to go back to Oulu. Here is a link to a column about that: https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/nakokulma-jesse-puljujarven-nhl-ura-vakavasti-uhattuna-onko-tuttu-ja-turvallinen-oulu-paras-paikka-juuri-tassa-vaiheessa-uraa/7525824

Professor Q

godot10: The December option means nothing.Once Puljujarvi plays an actual game in Europe, he has to clear waivers to return to the NHL this year…i.e. Ryan O’Reilly. The OIlers or somebody else can sign him, but he has to clear league wide waivers to return to play this season.

So, only the team that hold his rights, then, and it would be for next year regardless?

godot10

Professor Q:
So, I suppose this was inevitable, but here it is.

https://mobile.twitter.com/OulunKarpatFi/status/1166234264985309184

http://www.oulunkarpat.fi/uutiset/2019/08/27/jesse-puljujarvi-vuoden-mittaiseen-sopimukseen-karppien-kanssa

Hopefully you have a good season abroad with the Ermines, Dear Jesse. May this resolve with you getting to where you need to go, and Edmonton getting what they can.

Having the option to still qualify to play in the NHL by December 1 is an intriguing contract specification. I wonder if Edmonton does trade him if he has a good few months, where he’ll end up? That’s if they find a partner and don’t decide to just leave him for a year to let his head cool down.

The December option means nothing. Once Puljujarvi plays an actual game in Europe, he has to clear waivers to return to the NHL this year…i.e. Ryan O’Reilly. The OIlers or somebody else can sign him, but he has to clear league wide waivers to return to play this season.

Edit: I posted this in the morning without drinking a cup of coffee. The OIlers can bring him back.

jp

Harlekiini:
According to Mtv, Puljujärvi will play against Grenoble this friday as Kärpät plays their first match.

Thanks, sounds like you’re plugged in. We’d appreciate any updates through the season if you’re watching/following at all closely.

ArmchairGM

v4ance: Un-bold prediction:

1) The Oilers will be 10 pts behind a playoff spot by Christmas because Koskinen is still the same Koskinen from last year and Smith… is 37 and worn out and performs as badly as he was during last year’s regular season.

2) Starrett gets called up, Wells gets called up, Benson gets called up, Lagesson gets called up plus a few more “on the cusp” prospects to get good 10-20 game trials in the NHL

3)The Oilers still lose their way to 10th in the West

4) We end the year with a slight improvement to 85 pts and win the draft lottery cuz that’s the only thing we’re good at.BOOM!

Bookmark this post.

*grins*

ArmchairGM

Harlekiini: I should have been more accurate, but wasn’t sure whether or not to post a link as I’ve never written here before. I meant Mtv that is a finnish tv channel and a media house.

Welcome!

gimme shelter

I first read about Jesse signing a contract in Finland and then I came here. I am of the belief he stays there for the year and then gets traded. Also I hope he performs well over there to raise his tradeable quality. At this point I would like other peoples opinions on what we could trade him for or for who?
Another constant in Edmonton is that we lose at trades the Lucic , Neal trade being an exception.
If anybody believes Chiarelli won any trades please raise their right hand. Now Holland is in charge.
What can he get?

ArmchairGM

Professor Q:
So, I suppose this was inevitable, but here it is.

https://mobile.twitter.com/OulunKarpatFi/status/1166234264985309184

http://www.oulunkarpat.fi/uutiset/2019/08/27/jesse-puljujarvi-vuoden-mittaiseen-sopimukseen-karppien-kanssa

Hopefully you have a good season abroad with the Ermines, Dear Jesse. May this resolve with you getting to where you need to go, and Edmonton getting what they can.

Having the option to still qualify to play in the NHL by December 1 is an intriguing contract specification. I wonder if Edmonton does trade him if he has a good few months, where he’ll end up? That’s if they find a partner and don’t decide to just leave him for a year to let his head cool down.

“Jesse is a fly breeder whose physics, skills and talent will surely be enough for the NHL. ”

Thank you, google translate!

ArmchairGM

John Chambers:
That Cathal Kelly article is aggravating.

At the root of it is the idea that cities like Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Ottawa don’t deserve nice things.

Fair point that the team has been poor, largely from bad signings and players in key positions not panning out, but things ebb and flow in the NHL and Edmonton will soon have a number of players on ELC’s helping the big club.

Would it be better for McDavid if he got traded to Chicago, or Dallas? Would his life be better and would he be guaranteed a shot at the cup?

Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series in a young man’s lifetime. That the Oilers missed the playoffs the past couple of seasons due to lousy goaltending and poor management doesn’t offer rationale to wanting to abruptly leave.

Substitute “McDavid” for “Marner” and most of that article stays the same.

ArmchairGM

PREDICKTER: ” the sun will rise tomorrow” / I guess that wasn’t so hard

You lose. It’s grey and rainy here – no sun!

PREDICKTER: Read earlier “is it just me or does that 2nd line look slow?” Did I miss some games?
I’m pretty sure no one has seen that line play yet.

Pretty sure those wingers aren’t new to the league.

ArmchairGM

Wilde: The overwhelming probability is that a team /won’t/ win the cup. How is predicting they won’t win two in a row a falsification of anything?

I predict that every team will fall short of winning the Cup next year. I’ll be right on 96.77% of my prediction.

Thank you, thank you! I also do lottery numbers and baseball scores, if anyone is interested.

Play the odds, they say.

ArmchairGM

Georgexs: Tippett could throw up his hands and call out his players by February… or November. But I really don’t think he will. He’s seen worse. He already has one impressive turnaround on his resume. I’m guessing he’s going to have one more.

We can only HOPE.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Sounds like Woodcroft’s does too.

Have you heard Woodcroft utter one negative word about any of his players?

ArmchairGM

HT Joe: If I’m right, Chia had $16M to play with that offseason. Holland simply didn’t have that luxury when he inherited a bottom third team.

The roster Holland inherited wasn’t as good as the one Chiarelli did, but Holland has spent $11.25M on roster contracts and has about $750k in space above that, so as far as cap space / spending money it’s not as far off as you think.

ArmchairGM

Glovjuice: Agreed. Nygard will surprise and score 20 with that line. Solves the speed problem on the second line.

That would be beautiful.

ArmchairGM

Wilde: For those who are being unrealistic about the probabilities of each outcome (65 pts, 70 pts, 75 pts, 80 pts, 85 pts, 90 pts, 95 pts), I have a feeling that there’ll be a revisionist interpretation of the period between last spring and now, where hands were tied and this was the only option.

It’s not true.

Agree with your post, and especially this quote. We have, in fact, been hearing how Holland’s hands were tied all summer already.

v4ance

Corey Pronman@coreypronman

Farm system #9: Edmonton Oilers

Yay!

ArmchairGM

SwedishPoster: I like Berglund and think there’s a player there. I hope the Oilers sign him even if his season ends up being just average, my sense is that he’s a guy who could really benefit from a new setting and a new set of eyes to take that next step. He’s been with Skellefteå since his youth hockey days and they’ve done a great job developing him but I think both sides have become a bit too comfortable with each other. I’m not saying he’s in a bad situation or that he won’t develop this season, Broberg being there could actually turn out great for him, but I think there’s an extra gear to be found with a new perspective. Call it a hunch.

Excellent report – thank you!

This section on Berglund struck a chord with me. It wasn’t long ago that Berglund was considered a more valuable prospect than Lagesson, and I think he can get back into the conversation with a strong season next to Broberg. And thanks to Broberg. If Broberg is his partner this year Berglund will be getting about 10x the attention from Oilers scouts as he did last year.

Also, Holland has 4 defensemen who lose their waiver eligibility next summer: Lagesson, Jones, Bear and Persson. He’ll be watching them closely this season and making decisions on their futures next summer – meaning that there will be openings in Bakersfield next year. What better way to transition Broberg to North America than to bring over his partner and experienced pro Berglund? And the following year, what better way to transition to the NHL?

I say the Broberg pick is turning into a golden opportunity for Berglund, hopefully he seizes it with both hand and doesn’t let go.

A ticket to ride, as they say.

v4ance

Mark Divver@MarkDivver

PC’s Hayden Hawkey headed to Washington Capitals training camp on a PTO

v4ance

ArmchairGM: Bold prediction:

1) by Christmas, the Oilers will be in last place largely due to both goalies imploding.
2) Starrett gets called up.
3) the Oilers go on a hot streak and squeak into the playoffs.
4) Stanley Cup BABY!

Bookmark this post.

Un-bold prediction:

1) The Oilers will be 10 pts behind a playoff spot by Christmas because Koskinen is still the same Koskinen from last year and Smith… is 37 and worn out and performs as badly as he was during last year’s regular season.

2) Starrett gets called up, Wells gets called up, Benson gets called up, Lagesson gets called up plus a few more “on the cusp” prospects to get good 10-20 game trials in the NHL

3)The Oilers still lose their way to 10th in the West

4) We end the year with a slight improvement to 85 pts and win the draft lottery cuz that’s the only thing we’re good at. BOOM!

Bookmark this post.

ArmchairGM

pts2pndr:
What gives me hope.
Not one of you stats guys or other posters with your negative thoughts on the Oilers and the up coming season predicted that the Blues would win the cup. I do believe that at least three teams including Tampa, Winnipeg and Toronto were the touted favourites. The reality is we don’t know what we don’t know and that my fellow posters is why they play the games. I choose to look at things in a much more positive light and can see where there is a chance for significant improvement. New coach and GM that appear to be on the same page. Players brought in to improve the overall team speed. Players brought in that should help the woeful PK of last year. The team is the sum of its parts and as such false readings can come into play when you isolate on individuals. I will continue moving forward with my rose coloured glasses in a better place mentally and emotionally. While pessimists are rarely disappointed it just isn’t a healthy way to live. Hopefully I will be able to welcome you back on board the hopeful band wagon sooner rather than later.

Bold prediction:

1) by Christmas, the Oilers will be in last place largely due to both goalies imploding.
2) Starrett gets called up.
3) the Oilers go on a hot streak and squeak into the playoffs.
4) Stanley Cup BABY!

Bookmark this post.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Yup, Staples opinion differs than mine and that’s fine.

Sounds like Woodcroft’s does too.

ArmchairGM

Dr. Taboggan:
LadiesloveSmid,

Bare minimum lists are fun. Here is mine:

1) 3 Top 6 wingers
2) 1 3C
3) 1 Starting Goalie
4) 1 2RHD

This roster is so bad lol.

4) If wishes were horses… we need a 1RD, not a 2RD. Larsson is that guy.

This isn’t a priority and perhaps Bouchard can fill this role 2-3 years down the road, but I wouldn’t be opposed to targeting a guy like Spurgeon next summer if the term is reasonable and his play hasn’t dropped off. By then we’ll have some idea about Persson, Bear, Lagesson and Jones – and more clarity on Nurse, too.

Harlekiini

Professor Q: According to Mtv, Puljujärvi will play against Grenoble this friday as Kärpät plays their first match.

Why in the world would this news be on MTV?

I should have been more accurate, but wasn’t sure whether or not to post a link as I’ve never written here before. I meant Mtv that is a finnish tv channel and a media house.

Harlekiini

Munny: Wouldn’t that be the odds-on favourite?Not the riskiest bet in the world, regardless.

texmex:
Sami Hoffrén
@shoffren
If I would be a betting guy, right about now I would put my money on Puljujärvi staying and playing in Finland with Kärpät this year.

According to Mtv, Puljujärvi will play against Grenoble this friday as Kärpät plays their first match.

Professor Q

So, I suppose this was inevitable, but here it is.

https://mobile.twitter.com/OulunKarpatFi/status/1166234264985309184

http://www.oulunkarpat.fi/uutiset/2019/08/27/jesse-puljujarvi-vuoden-mittaiseen-sopimukseen-karppien-kanssa

Hopefully you have a good season abroad with the Ermines, Dear Jesse. May this resolve with you getting to where you need to go, and Edmonton getting what they can.

Having the option to still qualify to play in the NHL by December 1 is an intriguing contract specification. I wonder if Edmonton does trade him if he has a good few months, where he’ll end up? That’s if they find a partner and don’t decide to just leave him for a year to let his head cool down.

John Chambers

That Cathal Kelly article is aggravating.

At the root of it is the idea that cities like Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Ottawa don’t deserve nice things.

Fair point that the team has been poor, largely from bad signings and players in key positions not panning out, but things ebb and flow in the NHL and Edmonton will soon have a number of players on ELC’s helping the big club.

Would it be better for McDavid if he got traded to Chicago, or Dallas? Would his life be better and would he be guaranteed a shot at the cup?

Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series in a young man’s lifetime. That the Oilers missed the playoffs the past couple of seasons due to lousy goaltending and poor management doesn’t offer rationale to wanting to abruptly leave.

PREDICKTER

Random thoughts:
Woman who fly upside down have crack up
Predicting the past is easy, the future not so much, but given my handle lets give it a try
” the sun will rise tomorrow” / I guess that wasn’t so hard
Read earlier “is it just me or does that 2nd line look slow?” Did I miss some games?
I’m pretty sure no one has seen that line play yet.
PTS2PNDR says “the team is the sum of its parts”. BINGO. This is why coach Tippet is probably
the biggest factor to start the season. Seems he has done a pretty good job in the past of evaluating the players he has to work with. Lets hope all that video watching he’s doing this summer prepares him well. Nobody has anyway of knowing how this season will work out for our beloved Oilers, but
hope is a beautiful thing. I for one will be cheering them on through good and bad like I have for the last, well since they’ve been in the league, because I’m that old. Still remember the first time I heard Messier’s name, listening on the radio in northern Alberta on the way home from hockey practice, get into a scrap and beat the other guy silly, made me a Messier fan instantly. Went to his sweater retirement ceremony in Edmonton, sitting against the Zamboni rail, I was leaning over when he came out with the cup raised over his head and was only a couple of inches from touching it. One of my greatest memories.

GO OILERS GO

rickithebear

George XS:

One of my 40+ theories is baseline performance.
You want the best base system play teammates.

They have really low mistake rates.
So they are players you can rely on to be were the system demands.
Allows you to look at structure and Identify were the play is going to break down.
So you can use that for retrieval or attack in multi phase penetration sports.
I noticed this early on in Soccer, Football, Hockey, Basketball, and then Rugby.

I call the theory Belichek and Me!

Media & fans look at top plays which are low % of overall play.

Sheldon Souray has really dramatic blow by failures.
So fans, media and scouting get what I call “False eye affect”

Dramatic blow byes and he is an awful Dman.

Yet when you look at protection of HD area.
Penetration he allowed.
Open shots he allowed
Mistakes resulting in goals per 30 shifts he was one of the best 1st comp dmen in the game.

Look for Low rate mistake baseline play.

It is important that
A goal causing mistake is just 1 mistake.

Whether it is a dramatic blow by
Or
A slight position beat allowing a goal tipped in front of the net.

In penetration sports the base play of defence has to be very high standard of non mistake play.

Off can fail a lot and still bee effective.

I had forgot to put this in my notes.

Bloody chemo memory affect.

rickithebear

GeorgeXS
You are 12 years behind my work.

The very first thing Indid was look at the 2 win mechanisms.
GF and GA
Looked at what top teams advance to final 8 and Reach competing for championships

I went back years and Now it is 25 years of the same answers.

I presented top3, top 6, and top 9 team depth ages ago on HF boards.

It was one of the components of the structure.
But not the. Most critical in first 2 rounds.
But can be the reason for advancing if like GA structure depth teams meet.

We are in 2019 and people on here here Perception of what an 1st, 2nd, 3 rd line driver of winning is so poorly informed.

5 yrs ago I had finalized my cup core roster.
What is now 25 yrs of Championship structure.

Vegas selected 100% of the players & head coach available that fit my roster structure.
They won a championship in their first year.

Florida lacked the 125 fwd depth.
But they were structured for playoff GA competitiveness.
Won a championship in their 3rd season.
Having the best Open HD shot table hockey movement goalie in the game helped.

It was a dman that made the final with 3 diffrent teams that was the origional identifier for elite HD dmen.

Finals in Florida, Buffalo, Calgary.

Itbeas funny He referred to that goalie as a Table Hockey Goalie 40 years after I observed Ron Gunville Table Hockey Goalie movement hit rate.

Wilde

Scungilli Slushy:
2. Do you really believe baseball and basketball aren’t more star dominant sports? That would be the first time I read that.

You read wrong. There’s a difference between ‘star dominance’ and ‘systems impact’. They’re entirely unrelated. How can any read of the following statement –

Wilde: there’s a smaller spread between best and worst player.

Wilde: a greater portion of the roster of a hockey team /matters/ than of a basketball team.

– bring you to believe I think the opposite is true? There’s no double negative or anything. Again, I’m saying that ‘systems’, which would represent a modifier on each player of a team running different systems, has nothing to do with the differential between the greatest and least value being modified.

All I can guess is that you’re conflating just ‘systems’ with total environment/deployment.

As for everything else, I believe these two bits:

Scungilli Slushy: For me as a long time close observer of NHL hockey, I find I’m rarely surprised by final outcomes.

and

Scungilli Slushy: Last season when turncoats here were singing the praises of Calgary I commented I didn’t buy it. I also said early last season all of the ‘fan boy’ love of the Bolts was placed wrongly. I said the Caps would likely not repeat. Leafs would Flame out. How did I guess right?

have the same root cause – confirmation bias.

All of this stuff is probabilistic. Tampa Bay can lose in the playoffs while still having been the team with the highest chance of winning.

The overwhelming probability is that a team /won’t/ win the cup. How is predicting they won’t win two in a row a falsification of anything?

This is a huge problem with the mainstream criticism of analytics. It must answer for all of its perceived failings in ways that what came before never did.

rickithebear

You win by passing puck around to each other.
Oh wait!
You win by shooting it in the net.
I was confused by the 90% on here who concentrate on points with largest portion being points from passing.

I must remember passers recieve points from goal scorers.

Onless some on here are confused what the 1st, line, 2nd line, 3rd line, 4th line goal rates are for LW, C, RW.

Since PP and PK are units not structured lines like even.

We rally need to look at evg last year.
1st line #1 to 31
LW 33 – 16 evg
C 37 – 20 evg
RW 35 – 16 evg

2nd line #32 to #62
LW 16 – 10 evg
C 19 – 13 evg
RW 15 – 10 evg

3rd line #63 to #93
LW 10 – 6 evg
C 13 – 11 evg
RW 10 – 4 evg

4th line #94 to #124
LW 6 – 2 evg
C 11 – 7 evg
RW 4 – 0 evg

Someone on here said we need a 2nd liner (10 evg RW) to punch Chaisson (#43 RW 13 evg) down to we’re he belongs.
Someone has up and down confused.

Ryan:
Markus Granlund—Jujhar Khaira—Josh Archibald
Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

Is it just me or does that sort of look like two fourth lines?

It is you.

You confuse points vs goals as to what generates winning.
Guys who generate goals is what we want.
Cause that is what wins.
The OBC still has this 80’s belief in passing the puck in the net.

We have HD area def structures and goalies who move the torso with the puck with pads on the ice.

Orr’s famous goal would not go in vs today’s goalies

Granlund
18-19 #60 LW 10 evg
16-17 #24 LW 16 evg

Archibald #51 RW 12 evg

Gagner
18-19 Edm 25gm 5 evg
17-18 VCR #65 RW 7 evg
16-17 CBJ #59 RW 10 evg

Khaira DZ specialist
18-19 LW 2 evg definite 46.22% off FO zone start
17-18 #59 LW 10 evg 50% OFF FO ZS
He had sub 40% his first 25gm of career.
Definitely top 6 fwd with top 9 zone start.

Haas is a noted DZ specialist
and
Nygard was 2 Nd best player at generating pts ( scoring goals) in SHL.

Georgexs

Tippett took over in PHX in 09-10.

Let’s compare the before and after:

PHX 08-09

PTS 79
GF 205
GA 249

PHX 09-10

PTS 107
GF 211
GA 196

Difference

PTS +28
GF +6
GA -53

His top scoring forwards in 09-10:

Doan, 55
Lombardi, 53
Vrbata, 43
Hanzal, 34
Upshall, 32
Fiddler, 30

His defensemen by TOI:

Michalek, 22:39
Aucoin, 22:33
Jovanovski, 21:38
Yandle, 20:14
Lepisto, 18:14
Vandermeer, 17:41

His two goalies were Bryzgalov and LaBarbera:

Bryzgalov sv%

08-09 .906
09-10 .920

LaBarbera sv%

08-09 .901 (w/ LAK and VAN)
09-10 .928

Tippett has a successful turnaround on his resume (2 if you want to count his first year w/ DAL; but those circumstances wouldn’t be relevant to what he’s going to find here). From appearances, he found ways to win with not a lot.

From 00-01 (when the league expanded to 30 teams) to 12-13, predicting that last year’s playoff teams would make this year’s playoffs and that last year’s non-playoff teams would not resulted in an accuracy of 69%.

From 13-14 on, the accuracy of predictions based on that rule has dropped to 61%.

There’s more turnover year-to-year in playoff teams. It’s not THAT unusual to see a sub .500 team turn it around in a season and qualify. CMD’s Oilers have already done it once. They have a coach this time who’s also done it with his previous team. And league scoring in 09-10 was averaging 2.84 per team per game, compared to 3.04 per team per game in 18-19.

I’ve been looking at how well the offensive potential of a team (as measured by the number of top 3, top 6, and top 9 forwards a team starts a season with) predicts whether a team qualifies for the playoffs. My results so far suggest to me that, factoring in whether the team qualified in the previous season, this measure of offensive potential doesn’t really predict that much.

Turnaround teams aren’t always bursting with top 6 talent. Adding top 6 talent to these non-playoff teams doesn’t seem to be the secret sauce to get them into the playoffs. The qualifying teams usually get more offense than you’d expect given the talent they had going in, and they usually cut a whole whack of goals off their GA.

Tippett could throw up his hands and call out his players by February… or November. But I really don’t think he will. He’s seen worse. He already has one impressive turnaround on his resume. I’m guessing he’s going to have one more.

Material Elvis

Harpers Hair: No worries.
Cathal Kelly is somewhat controversial but don’t think his observations should be dismissed out of hand.

That wasn’t journalism; it was an article on the same level as Hockeybuzz. He based his argument on McDavid’s tone of voice and body language. It was truly cringe-worthy and meaningless.

Rebillled

Harpers Hair,

His observations should be completely dismissed.

What a good read. Is he your favourite psychologist/genius writer?

“Canucks fans will be really depressed this year. 50 years no cups.’

Glovjuice

Harpers Hair: Given health and either JT Miller or Michael Ferland on his wing, a reasonable expectation would be 20 more points. He’s the goods.

Agreed. Without injury he is a top ten scorer every year for a decade.

Scungilli Slushy

Wilde:
Scungilli Slushy,

1. That’s true for baseball as well

2. Smaller spreads of impact of all individual players don’t mean it’s more of a team ‘system’ game, it means there’s a smaller spread between best and worst player.

That doesn’t point to ‘systems’ being more impactful at all, it just means that a greater portion of the roster of a hockey team /matters/ than of a basketball team.

To construct proof that systems are or aren’t important, you’d have to figure out how to best control for every other factor (deployment, age, etc) in the game and compare player performance with different coaches or systems.

Also;

Aren’t those examples reliant on stats for analysis?

1. Then there is little short term hope for stats in hockey because baseball is a static sport. YMMV.

2. Do you really believe baseball and basketball aren’t more star dominant sports? That would be the first time I read that.

3. “To construct proof that systems are or aren’t important,” I appreciate those of you that have the math and computer skills to do that type of work. Or the time. For me as a long time close observer of NHL hockey, I find I’m rarely surprised by final outcomes.

I have stayed here for years because I love the analysis some can bring. There has been a sharp drop off in posting of numbers for a few reasons, but one I think is those capable took it as far as is possible given available date, after a few years. Probably why the forefathers went in house – curiosity about more data.

Last season when turncoats here were singing the praises of Calgary I commented I didn’t buy it. I also said early last season all of the ‘fan boy’ love of the Bolts was placed wrongly. I said the Caps would likely not repeat. Leafs would Flame out. How did I guess right?

Simply watch puck movement, which way the ice tilts, team speed, and who has a competent goalie. The final piece is which team is healthy and which team ‘will’ play through playoff BS or in other words desire?

Season SV% and Goal Diff are also tells for playoff success.

What else has been shown to work much?

There are too many moving pieces and without on ice perpetual data it isn’t possible to finely break down hockey.

As I keep saying the vast majority of players are heavily usage dependent. We do have some QoC data (thanks WG and GM) but context is still missing.

So we cannot tell what will happen each season and over the season or we’d all be rich betting on Cup winners.

CallighenMan

HT Joe: Don’t shoot the messenger… but the author on the other hand…
“McDavid’s made one playoff appearance and doesn’t appear convinced he’ll ever make another.”
and
“So it’s getting near time for McDavid to fix it. If he wants to leave, he’s going to have to say that out loud in public.”

Those are lines from a newspaper? Cathal Kelly of the Globe and Mail may just be the Edmonton Oilers of newspaper columnists.

Article aside, I stand by the label I give it (dsf,hh,cass, and who knows what other handles it uses on other sites)

HT Joe

OriginalPouzar: On the cap situation, yes, Chia is fully culpable (Lucic, Russell, Manning, Koskinen, etc.), however, its tough to compare the cap situation with Drai and McDavid on ELCs to the current situation.

Having to sign two elite players will have an effect on the cap structure of every team.

When Chia took over, he had cap space to sign McDavid (~$3M), Sekera ($5.5M), Talbot ($1.5M), Letestu ($1.8M), Schultz ($3.9M)… I think Chia signed all of those players (I’m trying to be fair… MacT re-signed Yakupov earlier in the spring that year). If I’m right, Chia had $16M to play with that offseason. Holland simply didn’t have that luxury when he inherited a bottom third team.

Chia had enough salarying work with to build a winner but he messed it up and squandered opportunity. Holland simply did not have the cap flexibility to fix the Oilers this offseason (and because of the Nurse extension next summer, Holland won’t even have significant cap flexibility next year either).

If we are being fair to Holland, we can’t really get too mad at him until the 2021 season gets started. YMMV

Ryan

OriginalPouzar: I’m not “gifting anyone spots. I’m making my prediction on what he opening night roster will look like based on everything I’ve seen, read and heard.

I’m not sure how one can possibly come to the conclusion that I’m “gifting Persson a spot” when I’ve posted dozens of times that I’m not even sure he’s an NHL d-man at 5 on 5 and I am very hopeful he is.

I’m not sure how anyone can state that I’m gifting Jones a spot when I’ve been clear that I’d prefer Lagesson at 3LD.

Such odd statements about my thoughts for someone that professes to know me so well.

I can’t recall ever saying Bear is not in the team’s big picture.I have him below Jones and Lagesson personally.Considering he played zero NHL games last year and Jones close to 20……

This is funny, we pontificate over roster possibilities and offer our conjecture to other blog readers here, but ultimately our opinions are inconsequential. As such we’re incapable of gifting roster spots.

OriginalPouzar

Oilman: The fact of the matter is, you seem to gifting Jones and Persson spots on the Oilers training camp has even opened. Jones has shown he is probably first in line for a spot, but Persson hasn’t even been on the smaller ice surface yet, and is an unknown until he proves himself. Bear had some injury set backs last year, but remember he did get to go to Europe with the big club last fall, so obviously he is still in the big picture contrary to your beliefs. Just because you choose to post your blogs on numerous other sites that I happen to frequent doesn’t mean I can’t express my views if they happen to be different than yours at times.

I’m not “gifting anyone spots. I’m making my prediction on what he opening night roster will look like based on everything I’ve seen, read and heard.

I’m not sure how one can possibly come to the conclusion that I’m “gifting Persson a spot” when I’ve posted dozens of times that I’m not even sure he’s an NHL d-man at 5 on 5 and I am very hopeful he is.

I’m not sure how anyone can state that I’m gifting Jones a spot when I’ve been clear that I’d prefer Lagesson at 3LD.

Such odd statements about my thoughts for someone that professes to know me so well.

I can’t recall ever saying Bear is not in the team’s big picture. I have him below Jones and Lagesson personally. Considering he played zero NHL games last year and Jones close to 20……

Scungilli Slushy

godot10: Paying your five best players what they are worth has no real impact on the cap.It is what only what you pay the other eignteen players that matters to cap management.

In fact, the first rule of cap management arguably is to pay your five best players what they are worth.That is not where one penny pinches.

I agree with this, although if you can get lucky and sign under market you win short term, although you likely have to overpay to resign the next deal.

I’m thinking MacKinnon. No reason for Connor or Leon to feel jilted, they were signed high for the market at the time. Nathan was signed perhaps at market value, but he has been a clear league top player from the get go.

This is where resentment starts unless the player doesn’t care or buys into a winning team depth scenario. Team has to win though.

Glovjuice

Jordan:
I think a lot of people here are really underrating Nygard and Haas.Nygard especially -I think there is every chance this guy gets a shot at a top 6 role, and makes Kenny look like a genius for signing him.He’s known for his 2-way game, his speed, and his scoring. Oh, and 5 years pro experience.

Tell me, what wingers we have with that kind of skill set?

The list is very, very short.

Leon – Connor – Kassian
Nygard – Nuge – Neal
Granlund – Marody – Archibald
Khaira – Haas – Chiasson
Ex – Gagner, Jurco

I recognize Nygard doesn’t have NHL exp.But that’s not nearly as significant for a winger, as it is for a centre, D, or Goalie.

I think he’s likely a great complement to Nuge and Neal.

I also think there aren’t enough good centres to keep Marody off the roster.

I think people who don’t see this team improving are too focused on past performance, and not on the players and their potential to achieve in the roles they’re in.

Looking forwards to seeing this team start playing!

Agreed. Nygard will surprise and score 20 with that line. Solves the speed problem on the second line.