Big Opportunity

Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody and Kailer Yamamoto are looking for the same kind of opportunity afforded Anton Slepyshev in 2016-17. Slepyshev scored 4-6-10 in 41 games (455:52, 1.32 points-per-60, all at five-on-five) playing mostly with Drake Caggiula, Milan Lucic and Leon Draisaitl. That’s the kind of landing spot Benson, Marody and Yamamoto are hoping for this fall.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • **New Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
  • New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

NUMBERS

Eric Rodgers has done great things for Oilers fans over the years and his work most recently offers us great insight into minor league performance. His ability to estimate even-strength TOI is a Godsend. It gives us an educated guess about scoring levels with the added advantage of looking at things on a level playing field.

Back in 2015-16, Rodgers estimated Anton Slepyshev’s total icetime per game was 13:26 in 49 games. He scored 4-0-4 on the power play, about the same as Josh Currie in 2018-19. Currie is estimated to have spent 1:07 on the PP, and I’m going to use that number on Slepyshev’s 2015-16 season as an estimate. If I’m right, Slepyshev would have scored 9-8-17 in those 49 games, and 1.69 even strength points-per-60. That’s a shy number for a skilled man, but dovetails nicely with Slepyshev’s NHL even-strength points per 60:

2015-16: 1.69 (estimate)

2016-17: 1.33 (actual)

2017-18: 1.24 (actual)

Slepyshev kept 80 percent of his five-on-five offence if my numbers are right. AHL to NHL equivalencies run around 45 percent overall but that includes power-play numbers.

If we use 80 percent of Slepyshev’s 1.69 as a line in the sand, how many of Benson, Marody and Yamamoto rank above that number for their 2018-19 work?

Cooper Marody: 15-30-45 in an estimated 1,039 minutes. That means Marody posted a 2.60 points-per-60 (estimated) at even strength.

Tyler Benson: 13-29-42 in an estimated 1,143 minutes. That means Benson posted a 2.20 points-per-60 (estimated) at even strength.

Kailer Yamamoto: 4-8-12 in an estimated 390 minutes. That means Yamamoto posted a 1.84 points-per-60 (estimated) at even strength.

Marody 80 percent: 2.08 per 60.

Benson 80 percent: 1.76 per 60.

Yamamoto 80 percent: 1.47 per 60.

Marody is a stronger offensive prospect than Slepyshev by some measure, and Benson’s numbers are also well clear of the Russian. Kailer Yamamoto is ‘in the range’ and will have to establish himself at a higher level (and with a healthy wrist he should spike).

Jujhar Khaira

Khaira’s even strength estimate for 2015-16 was 1.84 per 60 and the following year (2016-17) 1.64. His even-strength per 60 numbers in the NHL are 1.44 (2017-18) and 1.45 (2018-19). He retained 83 percent of his even strength offense.

What does it all mean?

Coach Tippett might look past Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson this fall. The organization’s mission statement is about slow playing the talent now, these men would be overcooked by this time next year.

I don’t think the club can afford it. Marody’s competition at RW is Zack Kassian, Alex Chiasson, Sam Gagner and Josh Archibald. His competition at No. 3 center is Gaetan Haas, Jujhar Khaira and Colby Cave.

Benson’s competition at left-wing includes Leon Draisaitl, James Neal, Markus Granlund, Joakim Nygard and Khaira. It’s more substantial than the RW side, but Neal can play either wing and there’s room for an offensive winger.

I think one of these two men (Marody, Benson) will emerge this season, maybe both. The two youngsters might not be long term answers but their time appears to be now.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today on the show (10 this morning, TSN1260) we’ll be joined by Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll talk Jesse Puljujarvi and trade value, plus the roster and playoff chances. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will pop in to talk all the footballs plus U.S. Open tennis. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Rock on! Jimmy Dean. Jimmy Dean.

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147 Responses to "Big Opportunity"

  1. GP Oiler Fan says:

    I believe that both Marody and Benson will be on the team fulltime before the end of the year. With the amount of youngsters bubbling under there must be a plan to elevate them to the big leagues over time, there will be too many rookies over a short stretch down the road next year and the following year if a couple do not make the jump this year. I am also assuming that both will be ready to handle the big leagues at some point this season.

  2. Bar_Qu says:

    I appreciate reading Pronman’s evaluation of the farm system in comparison to yours, as a way to get a fuller understanding of where some of these players will land eventually. Pronman too was pretty high on Marody, so I retain hope he surprises by making the team out of camp and helping solidify the bottom 6.

    Hope springs eternal, even for jaded Oilers fans.

  3. McNuge93 says:

    May the best player win the various open positions. In the past they have treated some prospects as their newest toy and put them into positions they weren’t ready for or deserved. We need the best players on the roster starting game 1, not treating the first 10 games as extended training camp. I think this is what Holland and Tippet will do.

  4. tileguy says:

    McNuge93,

    Some mght say that preseason is useless, so how can you win a position?

  5. Eh Team says:

    tileguy: Some mght say that preseason is useless, so how can you win a position?

    You have had a full season of AHL play to know what Benson, Marody and Jones are. That’s far more information than you will find out in a handful of exhibition games where no one cares about the outcome.

    If the Oilers are going to be relevant this year they are going to need to get good production out of players breaking into the league. And they are going to need fully healthy seasons from McDavid, Drai, Nuge and Klefboom. And league average goaltending from whoever winds up in goal.

    It seems like a stretch to think they will get 30-45 useful games each from the combo of Koskinen and Smith.

  6. godot10 says:

    Lowetide back putting the hex on Kailer Yamamoto, like he has done for two years now. If you want Yamamoto to succeed, stop talking about him in August and September.

    Forget about him, like the Oilers forgot about Benson last year. At least until the new year.

    Ditto Bouchard. Not till the new year.

    ———————————————————————–
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary. It’s a long way to go.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson proving to be a legit NHL LW to start the season really helps the forward depth chart.

    Benson proving to be a legit NHL 2LW, with a solid center like Nuge (or Drai) REALLY helps the roster and the depth chart. It provides a “value contract”, it allows Neal to play RW with a left shot center where he is most comfortable (and his bounce-back is a key to the season) and it legit bumps Chiasson down to the bottom 6.

    What is reasonable? Probably option 1 but option 2 likely not until later in the year. With that said, option 2 isn’t total fantasy and there is a reasonable chance.

    Come on Tyler!

  8. McNuge93 says:

    tileguy:
    McNuge93,

    Some mght say that preseason is useless, so how can you win a position?

    Well I think to say preseason is useless is an overstatement. But, yes, you can be fooled by some performances ala Rattie last year. But that’s where Holland and Tippet earn their big dollars, to make astute assessments.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kailer Yamamoto is about 6 months YOUNGER than Tyler Benson and hasn’t been afforded the luxury of AHL development time like Benson has.

    I watched most of his AHL time this past year and while, overall, the numbers don’t sparkle, I don’t think they represent his play or his pedigree. It did take him a bit to gain traction after the yo-yo finally stopped and placed him in the proper league. He started with Vesel and Esposito as his linemates and, after a bit of time, started to drive offence even with the middling linemates. Once he gained traction he started driving offence and creating shift after shift. He did have some issues finsihing but was proving to be a plus AHL player.

    I have no doubt that, if he was given the season, his production would have been right up there with Benson and Marody.

    While I do agree he is an NHL option this year, I believe it must be later in the year. I have little doubt he will produce in camp and exhibition, as young talent generally do, however, he hasn’t been given the AHL development time and I think he should be assigned at the end of September and his name out of the conversation until the turn of the calendar.

    If he stays healthy and just plays games in the top 6 in the Bake, with other talent, he will produce, develop and have full confidence when the call-up does happen.

    Go Kailer!

  10. blackadder says:

    Marody looks to be ahead of Benson right now, and certainly seems to have an easier route into the top 6. But if they both show well, I don’t think it’s out of the question that both could leapfrog past bottom six players like Chiasson, Kassian, Gagner, Granlund and Khaira who might possibly be miscast into top six roles this year.

    Whether it’s the best thing for Benson and Marody is another question entirely. Puljujarvi ought to be the poster boy for ruining a young players confidence by promoting them before they’re ready, and that’s the last thing we want to be doing with any of these players.

  11. Andy Dufresne says:

    Repost from poster Hilmar yesterday:

    Hilmar: Don’t know if anyone got back to you, but this might help.

    from https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/fans/where-to-watch

    “Champions Hockey League games can be watched on TV or digital platforms in many countries. In addition to that, we offer free livestreaming on our website and app for territories and games where there is no geoblocking in effect.”

    “CanadaTSNCHL Games available on TSN and TSN GO
    All games not Live on TV/Online are available via the CHL Website/App”

    “USA and its territoriesNHL NetworkCHL Games available on NHL Network
    All games not Live on TV are available via the CHL Website/App”

  12. Andy Dufresne says:

    Right about now its looking like Yamamoto’s upside comparison is Drake Cagguila. ( which would be a first round bust)

    IMO, some players have the skills to be better in the NHL than they were in the AHL; That is to say, they are better suited to play at speed and with skill.

    Benson may be one of those players. Yamo is not imo.

    Question for the group. Can Yamamoto turn himself into a defensively responsible forechecking demon who chips in a little offensively?

    Or is his fate as an NHL player completely tied to becoming a top six scoring threat?

  13. Andy Dufresne says:

    Has anybody ever attended training camp scrimmages? I know its very subjective, but how would you rate the experience?

    Just OK?

    Somewhat worthwile?

    Very worthwhile?

    Very Entertaining?

    Other?

  14. bwar says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    At times it was almost painful to see a player create so much offense and get nothing for it. Kailer is a great prospect but I do feel that Benson and Marody separated themselves as the most NHL ready forwards from last years AHL group. I think Yamamoto can get there this season but I hope he starts in the AHL and gets minutes with some decent linemates.

  15. Munny says:

    Mark Spector‏Verified account @SportsnetSpec · Aug 27

    Puljujarvi signs a 1-year deal with Oulu Karpat, the pro team nearest his home in Finland.
    Expectations are to produce now. He should be a star player at that level, nothing less.

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    Marody seems like a “Tippett Type” to me.

    One of several players who could take a significant step forward based on playing Tippetts systems to a T.

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny:
    Mark Spector‏Verified account @SportsnetSpec · Aug 27

    Puljujarvi signs a 1-year deal with Oulu Karpat, the pro team nearest his home in Finland.
    Expectations are to produce now. He should be a star player at that level, nothing less.

    If JP outperforms in Finland and becomes a Star Player in the Finnish Elite League this coming season, what is his trade value at that point???

    He has the (Long Johns Trap Door) opt out clause in his contract. I believe it says he can opt out up until Christmas. So he cant be a trade deadline deal. It would have to be prior to Christmas or summer 2020 No?

    When does the Finnish League end? Could he be traded to an NHL team for a late season playoff run?

  18. texmex says:

    Andy Dufresne: If JP outperforms in Finland and becomes a Star Player in the Finnish Elite League this coming season, what is his trade value at that point???

    He has the (Long Johns Trap Door) opt out clause in his contract. I believe it says he can opt out up until Christmas. So he cant be a trade deadline deal. It would have to be prior to Christmas or summer 2020 No?

    When does the Finnish League end? Could he be traded to an NHL team for a late season playoff run?

    No. If he is not signed to an NHL contract by December 1st, he is ineligible to play in the NHL for the entire 19/20 season.

  19. ArmchairGM says:

    Interesting numbers and projections regarding the young prospects. I’d like to add this for context: even strength goals/60. Here are the numbers with Nygard added:

    Yamamoto 0.62 g/60
    Benson 0.68 g/60
    Marody 0.87 g/60
    Nygard 1.22 g/60

    I’m of the opinion that the SHL is a higher-level league than AHL, and the fact that Nygard has scored so well certainly gives him an edge over the others at finding a top-6 roster spot. Also of note, Nygard’s scoring acumen came in handy on the PP, producing a massive 2.77 g/60.

    Looking forward to training camp!

  20. Material Elvis says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Has anybody ever attended training camp scrimmages? I know its very subjective, but how would you rate the experience?

    Just OK?

    Somewhat worthwile?

    Very worthwhile?

    Very Entertaining?

    Other?

    Yes, it is entertaining. The play is more open; there is less checking. Also interesting to compare the AHL guys to the NHL guys. The best part: admission is free! They used to give away free popcorn, too, at Rexall but not anymore at Roger’s.

  21. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Interesting numbers and projections regarding the young prospects. I’d like to add this for context: even strength goals/60. Here are the numbers with Nygard added:

    Yamamoto0.62 g/60
    Benson0.68 g/60
    Marody0.87 g/60
    Nygard1.22 g/60

    I’m of the opinion that the SHL is a higher-level league than AHL, and the fact that Nygard has scored so well certainly gives him an edge over the others at finding a top-6 roster spot. Also of note, Nygard’s scoring acumen came in handy on the PP, producing a massive 2.77 g/60.

    Looking forward to training camp!

    By the way, Nygard’s even strength P/60 was 2.04, which is probably similar to that of Marody’s considering the difference in QOC.

  22. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Andy Dufresne: If JP outperforms in Finland and becomes a Star Player in the Finnish Elite League this coming season, what is his trade value at that point???

    Good question. There is always NHL expansion to consider. If they put an NHL franchise next door to his Mom’s house in Finland, maybe a mid first rounder. Otherwise, crickets.

  23. Munny says:

    Andy Dufresne: If JP outperforms in Finland and becomes a Star Player in the Finnish Elite League this coming season, what is his trade value at that point???

    Spector’s point is that becoming a star player isn’t out-performing but rather what ought to be the case. He’s going to get 1st line lineates, 1st line TOI, 1st PP unit, be used to the size of ice, the language, the food, and should be very very motivated to shove it up the backsides of his naysayers.

    So, as LT points out above, these things, usage etc, effect NHLe, and we should expect a much higher translation than just computing off his past years numbers.

  24. norm_klassen says:

    If Benson can has a Robert nilson type debut season would we be happy? He seems like a passer just like he was

  25. Harpers Hair says:

    Another blood bath at Rogers Sportsnet.
    Both Nick Kypreos and Doug Maclean axed.

  26. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Harpers Hair,

    What was the previous bloodbath?

  27. Harpers Hair says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Harpers Hair,

    What was the previous bloodbath?

    Scott :Moore awhile ago, many off air staff and this.
    https://torontosportsmedia.com/2019/06/20/sportsnet-prepares-for-massive-layoffs/

  28. tileguy says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Harpers Hair,

    What was the previous bloodbath?

    Gregg Zaun

  29. Reja says:

    tileguy: Gregg Zaun

    Liked Zaun didn’t sugarcoat every single thing like the suck holes they have now.

  30. JJS says:

    Andy Dufresne: If JP outperforms in Finland and becomes a Star Player in the Finnish Elite League this coming season, what is his trade value at that point???

    He has the (Long Johns Trap Door) opt out clause in his contract. I believe it says he can opt out up until Christmas. So he cant be a trade deadline deal. It would have to be prior to Christmas or summer 2020 No?

    When does the Finnish League end? Could he be traded to an NHL team for a late season playoff run?

    He can be traded this year (19/20) but can’t play if unsigned by Christmas – including playoffs. The team making the trade is looking towards next season.

  31. Oilman99 says:

    Munny:
    Mark Spector‏Verified account @SportsnetSpec · Aug 27

    Puljujarvi signs a 1-year deal with Oulu Karpat, the pro team nearest his home in Finland.
    Expectations are to produce now. He should be a star player at that level, nothing less.

    If he doesn’t star at that level, JP’s dream of playing in the NHL may be lost. He has to dominate if he wants another chance.

  32. Oilman99 says:

    norm_klassen:
    If Benson can has a Robert nilson type debut season would we be happy? He seems like a passer just like he was

    Benson is a much more cerebral player than Nilson, he has elite hockey sense, and passing abilities.

  33. defmn says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Has anybody ever attended training camp scrimmages? I know its very subjective, but how would you rate the experience?

    Just OK?

    Somewhat worthwile?

    Very worthwhile?

    Very Entertaining?

    Other?

    I used to go every year before we moved from Edmonton and it was great fun. That was a long time ago (12 years) but it was better every year they did it. When they first started the players wore jerseys with no names or numbers and they didn’t even have a photocopied list of who was there for those who showed up but over the years it became entertaining and informative. I used to go every day. I just told my partners I wasn’t available for work the week of training camp. 😉

    Slightly off topic but we just moved back to Alberta and are now in Calgary. The rookie games with the Flames are the 7th and 10th of September. The tickets go on sale for the one in Calgary this Friday and are $5 plus whatever Ticketmaster is charging these days. All proceeds to charity.

    Should I wear one of my Oiler’s jerseys?

  34. Material Elvis says:

    Draisaitl looks like he’s a bit slimmer this summer — the baby fat is gone.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    GPOilerFan:
    I believe that both Marody and Benson will be on the team fulltime before the end of the year.With the amount of youngsters bubbling under there must be a plan to elevate them to the big leagues over time, there will be too many rookies over a short stretch down the road next year and the following year if a couple do not make the jump this year.I am also assuming that both will be ready to handle the big leagues at some point this season.

    Here is hoping and hoping that its on merit (as opposed to a firesale at the deadline and injuries leading to multiple call-up).

    I think its reasonable to project at least one of them on the team on October 2 – on merit.

    Maybe Marody does “earn” the 3C start and we see how he does there in October? Maybe he “earns” a 3rd line winger position.

    Maybe Benson “earns’ the 2LW start and we see how he does there in October. Maybe he earns the 3LW position (and Granlund maybe earns the 2LW).

    —————————

    So much in flux but if one of them can fill the 2LW or 3C spot, on merit, that would be huge and, if they could fill both on merit, well, then we are cooking with playoff gas!

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge:
    May the best player win thevarious open positions. In the past they have treated some prospects as their newest toy and put them into positions they weren’t ready for or deserved. We need the best players on the roster starting game 1, not treating the first 10 games as extended training camp. I think this is what Holland and Tippet will do.

    Errors of prior management shouldn’t predict the ways of current new management.

    With that said, there is no “shiny new toy” coming to camp this season – no top draft pick to compete for a spot as Broberg is Champions League bound on Friday – no new Bouchard, no new Yamamoto, no new Puljujarvi.

    The “potentials” have all been in the organization for at least a year and, for most, longer.

    I would think that merit reigns the day on October 2.

  37. jtblack says:

    ” The two youngsters might not be long term answers but their time appears to be now.”

    I think Benson has the pedigree to be a long term answer. Curious why you don’t?

  38. Yeti says:

    Material Elvis:
    Draisaitl looks like he’s a bit slimmer this summer — the baby fat is gone.

    Apparently he cut the leberwurst out of his diet and the pounds just dropped off.

  39. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Here is hoping and hoping that its on merit (as opposed to a firesale at the deadline and injuries leading to multiple call-up).

    I think its reasonable to project at least one of them on the team on October 2 – on merit.

    Maybe Marody does “earn” the 3C start and we see how he does there in October?Maybe he “earns” a 3rd line winger position.

    Maybe Benson “earns’ the 2LW start and we see how he does there in October.Maybe he earns the 3LW position (and Granlund maybe earns the 2LW).

    —————————

    So much in flux but if one of them can fill the 2LW or 3C spot, on merit, that would be huge and, if they could fill both on merit, well, then we are cooking with playoff gas!

    It strikes me that Adam Gaudette in Vancouver is a very good comparable for Marody.

    Both late round draft picks in 2015 after three years in college hockey, about the same size and somewhat similar stats.

    Gaudette appeared in 56 NHL games last season but much of that had to do with injuries to Brandon Sutter and Jay Beagle.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=177644

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan Kennedy
    @THNRyanKennedy
    I asked Edmonton Oilers prospect goalie Dylan Wells for an underrated member of AHL Bakersfield: “Will Lagesson is an unbelievable D-man,” he said. “Anytime he was out there I knew he would be solid.”

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    McNuge93,

    Some mght say that preseason is useless, so how can you win a position?

    If this is directed at me, nope, never said that.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    EhTeam: You have had a full season of AHL play to know what Benson,Marody and Jones are.That’s far more information than you will find out in a handful of exhibition games where no one cares about the outcome.

    Factually correct, in my opinion.

    Camp is not meaningless for these players though.

    If Benson (or Marody) continues his (their) play from last season with a strong camp, while that doesn’t mean they are ready for regular season NHL hockey, its the next box to check off and earns (or should earn) the chance in the NHL lineup in a real game. Then they can start to prove themselves for real.

    Although I totally understand the reasons, its still too bad that we weren’t able to see Bouchard play real hockey minutes in the AHL playoffs. Aside from the last game with the injuries, he was as sheltered as possible. They dressed 7 d-men and he barely took an even strength shift let alone a defensive zone draw.

    As I said, totally understand Woodcrof’s and Manson’s deployment and reasoning, we could have learned much more than we did.

  43. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ryan Kennedy
    @THNRyanKennedy
    I asked Edmonton Oilers prospect goalie Dylan Wells for an underrated member of AHL Bakersfield: “Will Lagesson is an unbelievable D-man,” he said. “Anytime he was out there I knew he would be solid.”

    Sekera also said that Lagesson was ready. I trust his opinion over Corey Pronman’s.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    We are essentially confirmed on the Nurse/Larsson pairing as Playfair has said he wants to use them as a shutdown pair this year.

    Excellent news confirming what makes sense.

    They were very good together in 17/18 and Klef/Benning have very good numbers over the years.

  45. slopitch says:

    I have a hard time seeing why everyone seems to love Martin Necas but Tyler Benson is considered a tier below. Yes I know Necas is 18 months younger but Benson has missed a lot of time and was almost ppg last year. Maybe ask Pronman next time you have a sec LT.

    I guess with prospects, you just dont know till you know 🙂

  46. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We are essentially confirmed on the Nurse/Larsson pairing as Playfair has said he wants to use them as a shutdown pair this year.

    Excellent news confirming what makes sense.

    They were very good together in 17/18 and Klef/Benning have very good numbers over the years.

    Gulutzan also specifically mentioned Joel Persson when he talked about the PP yesterday. He is in charge of the PP again this year. He said that he will give equal opportunity to Nurse and Kleffbom depending who has the hotter hand at the time, but then spent several minutes talking about Persson’s PP ability (his passing, vision, and shot — all of which are plus). He noted that Persson can ‘do things with the puck that the other two can’t’. So I think he’s a lock to make the opening night roster unless he’s an absolute tire fire in his own zone.

  47. godot10 says:

    Pouzar:
    Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer (@OilersNow) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/OilersNow

    #Oilers associate coach Jim Playfair saying he wants to use Nurse and Larsson as a shutdown pair this season.

    Heads exploding in 3-2-………

    Why explode?

    They need Klefbom to play mentor to Persson on the 2nd pairing. And Benning to mentor Lagesson or Jones on the 3rd pair.

  48. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10: Why explode?

    They need Klefbom to play mentor to Persson on the 2nd pairing.And Benning to mentor Lagesson or Jones on the 3rd pair.

    Highest scoring D on the shutdown pair.

    Best D playing mentor on 2nd pairing to untried rookie.

    #7 D playing mentor to untried/unready player on the 3rd.

    Not sure where this ‘mentor’ thing is coming from.

  49. Yeti says:

    godot10: They need Klefbom to play mentor to Persson on the 2nd pairing. And Benning to mentor Lagesson or Jones on the 3rd pair.

    Far more likely that Persson is on the 3rd pair with limited ES minutes.

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russel- Persson

    And that’s if Persson can pass the sniff test in camp, otherwise a Jones-Russel combo could happen.

  50. godot10 says:

    Yeti: Far more likely that Persson is on the 3rd pair with limited ES minutes.

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russel- Persson

    And that’s if Persson can pass the sniff test in camp, otherwise a Jones-Russel combo could happen.

    Russell can’t help a rookie if he is constantly resetting and surrendering the blue line uncontested and lying spread-eagled the rest of the time.

  51. defmn says:

    It sounds like Persson’s abilities on the PP are too attractive to ignore but the even strength situation is still unknown so we might see 7 dmen dress in the early going as the team sorts things out.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge: Well I think to say preseason is useless is an overstatement. But, yes, you can be fooled by some performances ala Rattie last year. But that’s where Holland and Tippet earn their big dollars, to make astute assessments.

    Rattie, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Bouchard, etc.

    Happens yearly and consistently.

    Even McLeod – some wanted him to get NHL games last year based on camp – wild stuff.

  53. Yeti says:

    godot10: Russell can’t help a rookie if he is constantly resetting and surrendering the blue line uncontested and lying spread-eagled the rest of the time.

    He’ll be on the opening night roster.
    Persson maybe yes, maybe no.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    blackadder:
    Marody looks to be ahead of Benson right now, and certainly seems to have an easier route into the top 6.But if they both show well, I don’t think it’s out of the question that both could leapfrog pastbottom six players like Chiasson, Kassian, Gagner, Granlund and Khairawho might possibly be miscast into top six roles this year.

    Yes, Marody was indeed the driver of that top offensive line in the Bake last year – he was a possession menace.

    Sure, I can agree that he is “ahead” of Benson, however, I believe this is due to age and experience and that Benson will catch up and pass Marody. Marody is a solid prospect but I think that Benson has the higher potential and the “surer bet”.

  55. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    ” The two youngsters might not be long term answers but their time appears to be now.”

    I think Benson has the pedigree to be a long term answer. Curious why you don’t?

    I’m not sure my statement implies I don’t think he’ll be a long term solution. He might not be due to injuries, or his foot speed may not be enough to keep him on a skill line. I’m neither casting doubt nor trumpeting him. We have to wait and see. Fantastic rookie season, though.

  56. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Lowetide back putting the hex on Kailer Yamamoto, like he has done for two years now. If you want Yamamoto to succeed, stop talking about him in August and September.

    Forget about him, like the Oilers forgot about Benson last year.At least until the new year.

    Ditto Bouchard.Not till the new year.

    ———————————————————————–
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    I’m always flummoxed by this annual diatribe. I was the one saying “send him back or he’s going to make it impossible” in BOTH preseasons!!! Seriously.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:
    Repost from poster Hilmar yesterday:

    Hilmar: Don’t know if anyone got back to you, but this might help.

    from https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/fans/where-to-watch

    “Champions Hockey League games can be watched on TV or digital platforms in many countries. In addition to that, we offer free livestreaming on our website and app for territories and games where there is no geoblocking in effect.”

    “CanadaTSNCHL Games available on TSN and TSN GO
    All games not Live on TV/Online are available via the CHL Website/App”

    “USA and its territoriesNHL NetworkCHL Games available on NHL Network
    All games not Live on TV are available via the CHL Website/App”

    Looking at the schedule earlier today it seems both Karpat and Skellefteå play Friday at 10 – I assume that’s their time and likely 3am over here. I’ll probably be up given how damn busy I am (and need to get to the gym early and before the morning rush so that I’m not rolling in to the office at 9 after a 7am gym session).

    I’ve had success watching hockey on TSN GO – watched a bunch of NCAA games on it – fingers crossed that it works.

  58. godot10 says:

    Yeti: He’ll be on the opening night roster.
    Persson maybe yes, maybe no.

    Keep on doing what failed miserably. The Oilers playoff chances are iffy at best. They have four D that they have to give “at bats” to this year to figure out what they are. Persson, Jones, Lagesson, and Bear. It is time to be bold and play two of them, each one with a veteran. Doing so will not materially hurt their playoff chances, and if any of them are good, will enhance the Oilers playoffs chances.

    Russell is #7 and the injury sub for one of the veterans only…i.e Larsson, Nurse, of Klefbom.

    It is time to push Russell to the pressbox.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:
    Right about now its looking like Yamamoto’s upside comparison is Drake Cagguila. ( which would be a first round bust)

    May i ask what you base this on as his play in the AHL overall does not jive with this. Boxcars alone do not tell the story of his play last year, in my opinion.

    Watching almost all of his AHL games (or portions thereof – damn 8pm start times), he was a plus/elite AHL player – the only issue I have with him right now is health.

    This doesn’t mean he’s going to be a 70 point top 6 guy. He may be that but he may also be a solid middle six guy – well over a Caggiula.

  60. Side says:

    Lowetide: I’m always flummoxed by this annual diatribe. I was the one saying “send him back or he’s going to make it impossible” in BOTH preseasons!!! Seriously.

    godot reads that and sees

    “I’m always… the one saying…. “he’s going to make it” …!!! Seriously.”

  61. godot10 says:

    Side: godot reads that and sees

    “I’m always… the one saying…. “he’s going to make it” …!!! Seriously.”

    #LowetideDeconstructed “Subtext is all”

    I have a google plug-in that does this automatically for the daily blog.

  62. Side says:

    godot10: #LowetideDeconstructed“Subtext is all”

    I have a google plug-in that does this automatically for the daily blog.

    lol

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    MaterialElvis: Sekera also said that Lagesson was ready.I trust his opinion over Corey Pronman’s.

    This is brought up every so often and, personally, I don’t put much stock in to it. I think it was in response to a direct question about Willie and, of course he’s going to say nothing to good things.

    Its similar to Jay W. – I’ve probably listened to 20 verbals from him since being the Condors’ head coach and haven’t heard him utter one negative thing about any player.

    With that said, I agree with Reggie!

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    MaterialElvis: Gulutzan also specifically mentioned Joel Persson when he talked about the PP yesterday.He is in charge of the PP again this year.He said that he will give equal opportunity to Nurse and Kleffbom depending who has the hotter hand at the time, but then spent several minutes talking about Persson’s PP ability (his passing, vision, and shot — all of which are plus).He noted that Persson can ‘do things with the puck that the other two can’t’.So I think he’s a lock to make the opening night roster unless he’s an absolute tire fire in his own zone.

    Great info – thanks.

    As I’ve said, I’m confident the Persson’s PP abilities will translate, at least some extent, to the NHL.

    For me, the question is if he can handle 3rd pairing 5 on 5 minutes – that’s a tougher task.

    I’m very hopeful that he can as his puck moving and PP game would definitely help and will quiet calls for Bouchard when he’s lighting up the AHL.

    I’m hopeful but its a bet and far from a surety.

  65. defmn says:

    godot10:

    It is time to push Russell to the pressbox.

    I think you and I are the only two pushing this. Having four rookie dmen losing their waiver exemption the same year isn’t ideal but here we are.

  66. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Great info – thanks.

    As I’ve said, I’m confident the Persson’s PP abilities will translate, at least some extent, to the NHL.

    For me, the question is if he can handle 3rd pairing 5 on 5 minutes – that’s a tougher task.

    I’m very hopeful that he can as his puck moving and PP game would definitely help and will quiet calls for Bouchard when he’s lighting up the AHL.

    I’m hopeful but its a bet and far from a surety.

    If he can’t handle 3rd pairing dman duties can he handle 4th line RW duties and the PP is another thing to find out.

  67. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I think someone posted that Benson’s comparables averaged 40GP 12P in their 21YO season in the NHL. You hope he’s on the upper end of the spectrum but man they are counting on like 4-5 unknowns up front.

    As for the back end, I think this is the year Russell’s wheels fall all the way off. Lagesson’s music!

  68. jp says:

    Yeti: Far more likely that Persson is on the 3rd pair with limited ES minutes.

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russel- Persson

    And that’s if Persson can pass the sniff test in camp, otherwise a Jones-Russel combo could happen.

    In a theoretical kinda way Persson’s puck moving is a good complement to Russell’s weaknesses too.

  69. theDjdj says:

    defmn: I used to go every year before we moved from Edmonton and it was great fun. That was a long time ago (12 years) but it was better every year they did it. When they first started the players wore jerseys with no names or numbers and they didn’t even have a photocopied list of who was there for those who showed up but over the years it became entertaining and informative. I used to go every day. I just told my partners I wasn’t available for work the week of training camp.

    Should I wear one of my Oiler’s jerseys?

    Yes

  70. rickithebear says:

    Based on June 30 age most are 18 yrs in draft yr.
    Some are still 17 on July 1.
    Which affords you 1 more yr before overage in CHL leagues.
    Draft (18)
    Draft +1(19)
    Draft +2 (20)
    Draft +3 (21)
    Draft +4 (22)
    Draft +5 (23)

    Drake Caggulia was draft +4 (22) July 1 2016.
    A (22) debut
    16-17 (22) 60 gm; 654:06; 5 evg 7 eva 12 Evp
    17-18 (23) 60gm; 792:52; 9 evg 7 Eva 16 Evp
    18-19 (24) 55gm; 731:40; 11evg 11 Eva 22 Evp

    Age 23 is He was fringe 2nd/3 rd line evg production from his W/C play.
    Age 24 we saw legitimate 2 Nd line evg production from 3 rd line minutes rate.
    Like Archibald, Granlund, Jurco have shown.

    Khaira turned (25) Aug 13 he was 24 on July 1.
    19-20 is his 24 yr season.

    Khaira:
    17-18 (22) 69gm; 749:27; 10 evg 8 Eva 18 Evp; DZ & OK role
    18-19 (23) 60gm; 661:24; 2 evg 14 Eva 16 Evp; DZ & PK role

    Prospects (non roster listed) age By July 1.
    Haas (27) Jan. 31; DZ & PK, Zone entry driver.
    Currie (26) Oct. 29
    Russell (26) Jan. 4
    Gambardella (25) Dec. 1
    Vesey (24) Mar. 28

    ————————————-
    Marody (22) Dec. 20
    Hebig (22) Jan. 21
    Benson (21) Mar. 15
    Yamamotto (20) Sept. 29
    Safin (20) Feb. 11
    Maximov (20) June 11
    Mcleod ( 19) Sept. 21

    Unsigned
    Rassanen (21) Jun. 1
    McPhee (20) July 24
    Brindamoor (19) July 27
    Siikanen (19) Apr. 16
    Blumel (19) May 31
    Mazura (18) Sept. 23
    Lavoie (18) Sept. 25
    Denezkhin (18) Dec.10

    Cannot find any info if McPhee or Brindamour were traded to another org.

  71. Yeti says:

    defmn: If he can’t handle 3rd pairing dman duties can he handle 4th line RW duties and the PP is another thing to find out.

    Wait – you want to Smid Persson?

  72. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Kailer Yamamoto is about 6 months YOUNGER than Tyler Benson and hasn’t been afforded the luxury of AHL development time like Benson has.

    I watched most of his AHL time this past year and while, overall, the numbers don’t sparkle, I don’t think they represent his play or his pedigree.It did take him a bit to gain traction after the yo-yo finally stopped and placed him in the proper league.He started with Vesel and Esposito as his linemates and, after a bit of time, started to drive offence even with the middling linemates.Once he gained traction he started driving offence and creating shift after shift.He did have some issues finsihing but was proving to be a plus AHL player.

    I have no doubt that, if he was given the season, his production would have been right up there with Benson and Marody.

    While I do agree he is an NHL option this year, I believe it must be later in the year.I have little doubt he will produce in camp and exhibition, as young talent generally do, however, he hasn’t been given the AHL development time and I think he should be assigned at the end of September and his name out of the conversation until the turn of the calendar.

    If he stays healthy and just plays games in the top 6 in the Bake, with other talent, he will produce, develop and have full confidence when the call-up does happen.

    Go Kailer!

    He started to drive offense playing second and third line competition in the AHL. Take a minute and think about what you said. Yamamoto does not have a strong wrist shot and has to score in close. He does not have the size to do this playing against men. His skating is NHL calibre but not elite. To be the player we all want him to be is very difficult at best given the above. As Godot say let him play and wait and see. The heart and the desire are beyond question. I will continue to cheer for him but it is in my opinion a long shot for him to be the player you propose him to be.

  73. v4ance says:

    Yeti: Wait – you want to Smid Persson?

    No we want to “Swede” Klefbom!

    *Hello is this mic on? Don’t you kids watch classic movies??? I mean it was 2008 and all…”

  74. Professor Q says:

    Mr. Lowetide, speaking of Continental Breakfasts (listening to the Lowdown right now).

    Have you ever seen Patriot from Amazon Prime?

    Part I:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiA8M3FpYqo

    Part II:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3nO1_3DpyA

    Part III:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tldelDHAAts

    Part IV:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtflXKKUJHE

    Breakfast. The optimistic meal.

    Muffins, breakfasts breads, etc. A whole spread!

    I imagine you getting as angry as Leslie does about breakfast, with Tyler (though I do miss Lieutenant Eric) as Lakeman.

    “You are a mysterious asshole, young man. And I’ve had it with you!”

  75. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: I used to go every year before we moved from Edmonton and it was great fun. That was a long time ago (12 years) but it was better every year they did it. When they first started the players wore jerseys with no names or numbers and they didn’t even have a photocopied list of who was there for those who showed up but over the years it became entertaining and informative. I used to go every day. I just told my partners I wasn’t available for work the week of training camp.

    Slightly off topic but we just moved back to Alberta and are now in Calgary. The rookie games with the Flames are the 7th and 10th of September. The tickets go on sale for the one in Calgary this Friday and are $5 plus whatever Ticketmaster is charging these days. All proceeds to charity.

    Should I wear one of my Oiler’s jerseys?

    Always! Don’t let the one cupers scare you.

  76. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Factually correct, in my opinion.

    Camp is not meaningless for these players though.

    If Benson (or Marody) continues his (their) play from last season with a strong camp, while that doesn’t mean they are ready for regular season NHL hockey, its the next box to check off and earns (or should earn) the chance in the NHL lineup in a real game. Then they can start to prove themselves for real.

    Although I totally understand the reasons, its still too bad that we weren’t able to see Bouchard play real hockey minutes in the AHL playoffs.Aside from the last game with the injuries, he was as sheltered as possible. They dressed 7 d-men and he barely took an even strength shift let alone a defensive zone draw.

    As I said, totally understand Woodcrof’s and Manson’s deployment and reasoning, we could have learned much more than we did.

    Yes but that was not the object of the exersize.

  77. Professor Q says:

    norm_klassen:
    If Benson can has a Robert nilson type debut season would we be happy? He seems like a passer just like he was

    Perhaps a hat trick in the first game like Paajarvi?

  78. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Kailer Yamamoto is about 6 months YOUNGER than Tyler Benson and hasn’t been afforded the luxury of AHL development time like Benson has.

    I watched most of his AHL time this past year and while, overall, the numbers don’t sparkle, I don’t think they represent his play or his pedigree.It did take him a bit to gain traction after the yo-yo finally stopped and placed him in the proper league.He started with Vesel and Esposito as his linemates and, after a bit of time, started to drive offence even with the middling linemates.Once he gained traction he started driving offence and creating shift after shift.He did have some issues finsihing but was proving to be a plus AHL player.

    I have no doubt that, if he was given the season, his production would have been right up there with Benson and Marody.

    While I do agree he is an NHL option this year, I believe it must be later in the year.I have little doubt he will produce in camp and exhibition, as young talent generally do, however, he hasn’t been given the AHL development time and I think he should be assigned at the end of September and his name out of the conversation until the turn of the calendar.

    If he stays healthy and just plays games in the top 6 in the Bake, with other talent, he will produce, develop and have full confidence when the call-up does happen.

    Go Kailer!

    Seems to me they have been afforded the same opportunity. The fact that Yamamoto got injured does not alter the opportunity nor does the fact that Benson beat him out of a spot higher up the lineup. Are you intimating poor little Yamamoto was somehow picked on. Seems to me Benson proved to be the better player. Please explain.

  79. defmn says:

    Yeti: Wait – you want to Smid Persson?

    LOL. I want to be able to take advantage of what sounds like strong PP skills in order to take the pressure off of rushing Bouchard and am open to a number of options – including dressing 7 dmen in the early going in order to do that.

  80. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: May i ask what you base this on as his play in the AHL overall does not jive with this. Boxcars alone do not tell the story of his play last year, in my opinion.

    Watching almost all of his AHL games (or portions thereof – damn 8pm start times), he was a plus/elite AHL player – the only issue I have with him right now is health.

    This doesn’t mean he’s going to be a 70 point top 6 guy.He may be that but he may also be a solid middle six guy – well over a Caggiula.

    His size will deter him from playing other than top six. He can not physically compete with bigger and stronger players as is required. If they put him in a position where he has to do the board play the beating he will take will end his career. Short term because of his heart and desire he will be okay but you can not gave away the size advantage long term.

  81. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Material Elvis: Gulutzan also specifically mentioned Joel Persson when he talked about the PP yesterday.He is in charge of the PP again this year.He said that he will give equal opportunity to Nurse and Kleffbom depending who has the hotter hand at the time, but then spent several minutes talking about Persson’s PP ability (his passing, vision, and shot — all of which are plus).He noted that Persson can ‘do things with the puck that the other two can’t’.So I think he’s a lock to make the opening night roster unless he’s an absolute tire fire in his own zone.

    Persson ‘s challenge is going to come from being lighter for a D and also not being a plus skater. To players that are below NHL more for size for position usually have to compensate with speed and edges.

    Some players can do it with brains but IMO those players are few and far between, which is why players typically have certain physical attributes.

    If Persson can’t beat forwards many of whom will be bigger than him to the puck he’ll need to be sheltered, and that would have to be Russell. So that means your third pair has two undersized players and the mentor also tends to get trapped in the D zone and struggles at board play. Not ideal.

    And no Mr Godot Russell won’t be in the PB. Holland is too smart to torpedo his asset that is going to be traded ASAP.

  82. Scungilli Slushy says:

    slopitch:
    I have a hard time seeing why everyone seems to love Martin Necas but Tyler Benson is considered a tier below. Yes I know Necas is 18 months younger but Benson has missed a lot of time and was almost ppg last year. Maybe ask Pronman next time you have a sec LT.

    I guess with prospects, you just dont know till you know

    Necas is a centre, skilled, taller, and apparently has quite an edge to him. Prospects like that get a lot of love unless they prove soon to be uncooperative.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Why explode?

    They need Klefbom to play mentor to Persson on the 2nd pairing.And Benning to mentor Lagesson or Jones on the 3rd pair.

    It would be NUGE for this team if Persson can prove to be a legit 2RD but, of course, we don’t know if he’s a 3RD at this point. Even his ability to handle 3RD will be big. One bet at a time.

    I do think there is a place for Kris Russell in the locker room and on the ice but I do agree that I’d prefer Lagesson (or Jones) at 3LD.

    I just don’t see Kris Russell being healthy scratched by Tippett on October 2 no matter what happens in camp (barring injury).

    I do think it could happen at some point in the season, even fairly early, but I just can’t see it off the bat.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: Far more likely that Persson is on the 3rd pair with limited ES minutes.

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russel- Persson

    And that’s if Persson can pass the sniff test in camp, otherwise a Jones-Russel combo could happen.

    Have to agree – my concern with Russell/Persson is Jones in the pressbox – perhaps he cycles in with Russell – I’m OK if he sits 2 games out of 10 to start, or something like that.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Keep on doing what failed miserably.The Oilers playoff chances are iffy at best.They have four D that they have to give “at bats” to this year to figure out what they are. Persson, Jones, Lagesson, and Bear.It is time to be bold and play two of them, each one with a veteran.Doing so will not materially hurt their playoff chances, and if any of them are good, will enhance the Oilers playoffs chances.

    Russell is #7 and the injury sub for one of the veterans only…i.e Larsson, Nurse, of Klefbom.

    It is time to push Russell to the pressbox.

    I don’t disagree with your premise (except betting on Persson at 2RD) and we can discuss what makes the most sense.

    Do you actually see Tippett doing this on October 2? On November 2?

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: In a theoretical kinda way Persson’s puck moving is a good complement to Russell’s weaknesses too.

    In a way, I guess – at the same time, if they are spending the entire time defending…..

    Russell gives up zone entries very easy – I assume Persson isn’t great at defending the blueline.

    Russell can get the puck back but can’t get it out without it coming right back.

    I’m not sure Persson will be great at getting the puck back.

    I’m actually really excited to see Persson play – I assume he won’t be playing the rookie games due to age but maybe?

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:

    Cannot find any info if McPhee or Brindamour were traded to another org.

    McPhee is still in the org – back to Boston College (along with Rasanan).

    Skyler is also still in the org – heading to Quinnipiac Univ.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: He started to drive offense playing second and third line competition in the AHL. Take a minute and think about what you said. Yamamoto does not have a strong wrist shot and has to score in close. He does not have the size to do this playing against men. His skating is NHL calibre but not elite. To be the player we all want him to be is very difficult at best given the above. As Godot say let him play and wait and see. The heart and the desire are beyond question. I will continue to cheer for him but it is in my opinion a long shot for him to be the player you propose him to be.

    He drove offence playing with 3rd line AHL linemates – from what I’ve read on here, Quality of Linemates is more important that QoC.

    As I said, he needs real AHL development time. Assign him no matter what happens in camp, don’t call him up after he’s got 10 points in 8 games, forget about him until the turn of the calendar, re-asses.

    I don’t make end-stop statements about what his size will preclude at the NHL level.

    You may be right. You may be wrong.

  89. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: It would be NUGE for this team if Persson can prove to be a legit 2RD but, of course, we don’t know if he’s a 3RD at this point. Even his ability to handle 3RD will be big. One bet at a time.

    I do think there is a place for Kris Russell in the locker room and on the ice but I do agree that I’d prefer Lagesson (or Jones) at 3LD.

    I just don’t see Kris Russell being healthy scratched by Tippett on October 2 no matter what happens in camp (barring injury).

    I do think it could happen at some point in the season, even fairly early, but I just can’t see it off the bat.

    Bill Belichek does it all the time. Arguably it is his trademark move, discarding veterans to create opportunity for young players. At some point, one has to cut bait on a veteran. The time for the OIlers to do so on Russell (they can’t really cut bait since Russell is untradeble by contract structure), to pressbox him, is now.

    Start as you mean to go on.

    Playing Russell is just Groundhog Day. We know how it ends. 80 points out of the playoffs.

    The way to soften Russell’s defacto NMC is to put him in the pressbox.

  90. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree with your premise (except betting on Persson at 2RD) and we can discuss what makes the most sense.

    Do you actually see Tippett doing this on October 2?On November 2?

    Why waste a month of the season? Start as you mean to go on.

  91. Glovjuice says:

    defmn: I think you and I are the only two pushing this. Having four rookie dmen losing their waiver exemption the same year isn’t ideal but here we are.

    Well, I want Russel at 7 as well. Unless a younger player is simply not close enough to make it work.

  92. CallighenMan says:

    Harpers Hair: It strikes me that Adam Gaudette in Vancouver is a very good comparable for Marody.

    Both late round draft picks in 2015 after three years in college hockey, about the same size and somewhat similar stats.

    Gaudette appeared in 56 NHL games last season but much of that had to do with injuries to Brandon Sutter and Jay Beagle.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=177644

    5th round (above) is not the same as 3rd round. The former I would classify as a “late” round, but not the latter.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: Yes but that was not the object of the exersize.

    As I said at least twice in the post, I totally understand their reasoning and I get it.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: Seems to me they have been afforded the same opportunity. The fact that Yamamoto got injured does not alter the opportunity nor does the fact that Benson beat him out of a spot higher up the lineup. Are you intimating poor little Yamamoto was somehow picked on. Seems to me Benson proved to be the better player. Please explain.

    That’s what you pulled out of this post? The reference to Benson was made essentially to show they are all but the same “age of prospect”.

    The point was simply that Yamamoto has not had the AHL development time that he needs and he should get that this year notwithstanding a great camp or start to the year. This is largely due to his injuries last season.

    I do disagree on the “same opportunity”. Keeping Yamamoto in the NHL both times hurt his development seasons. While this may be a negative on the player, it seems to take him some time to gain traction after assigned – both to the WHL and the AHL. This could be due to not starting the season with the team and being in the routine with the team and skating and being on the ice with the team, etc.

    Benson didn’t beat out Yamamoto for a Marody-winger spot – Yamamoto wasn’t there. By the time Yamamoto was assigned in mid-November, that top line was set and proving to be a top line: Benson/Marody/Currie.

    If Yamamoto was assigned with Benson, he very well could have been the RW on that line – Currie was doing well and the line was dominant. Then, of course, the Russell/Malone/Joe G. line had its 1B status and clear role and wasn’t going to be broken up.

    Kailer had to “wait” and it was mainly because he didn’t have the opportunity.

    He eventually started to dominate with the middling linemates and similar once Currie was recalled and he was moved up – then the damn injury.

  95. rickithebear says:

    We know most top 210 EVG scorers are fwds.
    That Rover lead rushes are 4 times less likely to generate a goal.
    GF is largely a forward measure.
    From Cf to CA is largely Forward dependent.
    Good GA dmen must colapse to the HD area if fwd NZ trap is not run.

    With Holland stating he wanted defenceman offence generated as 4th and fifth options.
    That means zone penetration and initial option #1 to #3 are expected to be driven by forwards.
    Strong skaters like
    Mcdavid
    Draisaitl
    Kassian

    Luckily Holland sought out top skaters who scouting says are drivers of transition entry.
    Archibald
    Jurco
    Nygard
    Haas

    Sedin said Granlund was that but it is a teammate observation rather than scout point of view.

    With top GA teams advancing to final 8, final 4 at a far superior rate.
    You want top evga/corsi D pair and Goalie (2-1) structures.

    The median evga/60 by season
    14-15 2.32
    15-16 2.32
    16-17 2.39
    17-18 2.53
    18-19 2.64

    Top evga/60 def pairs 90:00+ EVTOI in
    18-19 2.64
    Manning – Benning 1.31 evga/60 3rd comp
    Nurse – Russell 2.28 evga/60 2nd comp
    Klefbom – Larsson 2.48 evga/60 1st comp

    14-15 and 15-16
    Larsson was the #2 1.64 evga/60 dman behind
    #1 B. manning 1.50 evga/60

    No wonder Manning – Benning was a unbelievable Dpair.
    A top 10 & top 40 caliber HD dman structured Dpair generating a top 5 evga/60 rate.

    I am excited to see what our best HD def D prospect in 20 years can do playing with Larsson.

    We have the 2 best def Dmen pre 16-17 on our roster.
    Manning, Larsson
    Nurse – Russell showed a +ve goal dif evga/60 relative to median.
    Benning a top 40 HD dman.
    Lagesson our best HD def prospect.

    Nurse – Larsson
    17-18 1.83 evga/60
    18-19 4.24 evga/60

    Hopefully Tippett & Playfair can turn Nurse & Klefbom into proper def dmen like Tippett did with OEL in his first 3 season as Arz coach.

  96. Yeti says:

    defmn: LOL. I want to be able to take advantage of what sounds like strong PP skills in order to take the pressure off of rushing Bouchard and am open to a number of options – including dressing 7 dmen in the early going in order to do that.

    I think the 7D setup is more likely, but who knows? It would be great if Persson can handle the 3RD position + play significant PP minutes.

  97. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Have to agree – my concern with Russell/Persson is Jones in the pressbox – perhaps he cycles in with Russell – I’m OK if he sits 2 games out of 10 to start, or something like that.

    Manning. I think.

  98. Munny says:

    defmn: Should I wear one of my Oiler’s jerseys?

    I’ve worn mine to the Saddledome, regular season, pre-season and rookie games.

    I think you’ll be surprised at the number of Oil jerseys you’ll see there for a rookie game.

  99. Munny says:

    I don’t know what the hell Rusty is going to do with Michael J. Smith playing behind him. Smith is the very definition of the goalie-type for whom you want to stand up sorties at the blue line.

  100. defmn says:

    Yeti: I think the 7D setup is more likely, but who knows? It would be great if Persson can handle the 3RD position + play significant PP minutes.

    Agreed. That would be a strong result for the team.

  101. defmn says:

    Munny: I’ve worn mine to the Saddledome, regular season, pre-season and rookie games.

    I think you’ll be surprised at the number of Oil jerseys you’ll see there for a rookie game.

    Looking forward to it. Sorry they cancelled the Penticton tournaments.

  102. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: He drove offence playing with 3rd line AHL linemates – from what I’ve read on here, Quality of Linemates is more important that QoC.

    I don’t believe any of us know either way, which is more important or has the bigger effect on offensive output. It may even vary from individual to individual, or at different stages of development.

    And if we did know, we wouldn’t know some other important things in this case… like by how much the comp was too easy or the linemates too offensively challenged, Was one more out-of-whack than the other? Which one and by how much?

    I don’t think this issue takes away from your basic point though, which I will reiterate as “prior to his injury, KY was proving to be the offensive driver on his line, Bako’s 3rd.”

  103. Munny says:

    defmn: Looking forward to it. Sorry they cancelled the Penticton tournaments.

    I went to the first one and had a blast. Great arena too. Plus so easy to chat up or listen-in to the execs quaffing bevvies on the same patios.

  104. Glovjuice says:

    Fun fact: Alberta was in the Stanley Cup Finals for eight straight years.

  105. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    I don’t know what the hell Rusty is going to do with Michael J. Smith playing behind him. Smith is the very definition of the goalie-type for whom you want to stand up sorties at the blue line.

    Russell will love him because he’ll make the pass for him.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy:

    And no Mr Godot Russell won’t be in the PB. Holland is too smart to torpedo his asset that is going to be traded ASAP.

    While I don’t expect (or even care about) a return for Russell, at least $3M of cap space from the disposition is imperative for next off-season, hopefully a full $4M.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Why waste a month of the season?Start as you mean to go on.

    My goodness you refuse to answer direct question, consistently.

    The question was if you think Tippett with healthy scratch Russell on October 2.

    Asking why waste a month does not answer the question, even a little bit.

  108. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: In a way, I guess – at the same time, if they are spending the entire time defending…..
    Russell gives up zone entries very easy – I assume Persson isn’t great at defending the blueline.
    Russell can get the puck back but can’t get it out without it coming right back.
    I’m not sure Persson will be great at getting the puck back.
    I’m actually really excited to see Persson play – I assume he won’t be playing the rookie games due to age but maybe?

    Maybe I should have said “in one theoretical kinda way”, there could indeed be issues. In all likelihood we’ll get a chance to see them together at some point.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Manning. I think.

    I’ve suggested Manning as a pure pressbox guy while one of Jones or Perssson (and, unfortunately, Lagesson) spend a bit of time in the AHL.

    I’m not sure is going to happen.

  110. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rickithebear:
    We know most top 210 EVG scorers are fwds.
    That Rover lead rushes are 4 times less likely to generate a goal.
    GF is largely a forward measure.
    From Cf to CA is largely Forward dependent.
    Good GA dmenmust colapse to the HD area if fwd NZ trap is not run.

    With Holland stating he wanted defenceman offence generated as 4th and fifth options.
    That means zone penetration and initial option #1 to #3 are expected to be driven by forwards.
    Strong skaters like
    Mcdavid
    Draisaitl
    Kassian

    Luckily Holland sought out top skaters who scouting says are drivers of transition entry.
    Archibald
    Jurco
    Nygard
    Haas

    Sedin said Granlund was that but it is a teammate observation rather than scout point of view.

    With top GA teams advancing to final 8, final 4 at a far superior rate.
    You want top evga/corsi D pair and Goalie (2-1) structures.

    The median evga/60 by season
    14-15 2.32
    15-16 2.32
    16-17 2.39
    17-18 2.53
    18-19 2.64

    Top evga/60 def pairs 90:00+ EVTOI in
    18-19 2.64
    Manning – Benning 1.31 evga/60 3rd comp
    Nurse – Russell 2.28 evga/60 2nd comp
    Klefbom – Larsson 2.48 evga/60 1st comp

    14-15 and 15-16
    Larsson was the #2 1.64 evga/60 dman behind
    #1 B. manning 1.50 evga/60

    No wonder Manning – Benning was a unbelievable Dpair.
    A top 10 & top 40 caliber HD dman structured Dpairgenerating a top 5 evga/60 rate.

    I am excited to see what our best HD def D prospect in 20 years can do playing with Larsson.

    We have the 2 best def Dmen pre 16-17 on our roster.
    Manning, Larsson
    Nurse – Russell showed a +ve goal dif evga/60 relative to median.
    Benning a top 40 HD dman.
    Lagesson our best HD def prospect.

    Nurse – Larsson
    17-18 1.83 evga/60
    18-19 4.24 evga/60

    Hopefully Tippett & Playfair can turn Nurse & Klefbom into proper def dmen like Tippett did with OEL in his first 3 season as Arz coach.

    That’s backwards sort of my friend.

    D drive transition, forwards drive scoring. Think of where they are on the ice in each zone. Think of scoring rates in terms of closeness to the offensive net.

    For years Oiler forwards have not been supporting the D transitioning, is it system or is it talent or is it cooperativeness?

    Oiler forwards overall have not been good cycling HD chances consistently, and Oiler D have been poor maintaining the offensive blue line in my reckoning.

    I believe it has been coaching and systems, although I am not convinced the coaches were free to choose what they wanted to do.

    Because Oilers.

    I am getting the sense that Katz and whomever are backing off finally. Such failure and the risk of revenue loss is speaking loudly. Money always speaks the loudest in business and basically everything else.
    None of can know for sure.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: I don’t believe any of us know either way, which is more important or has the bigger effect on offensive output.It may even vary from individual to individual, or at different stages of development.

    And if we did know, we wouldn’t know some other important things in this case… like by how much the comp was too easy or the linemates too offensively challenged,Was one more out-of-whack than the other?Which one and by how much?

    I don’t think this issue takes away from your basic point though, which I will reiterate as “prior to his injury, KY was proving to be the offensive driver on his line, Bako’s 3rd.”

    Thank you.

    As for the last sentence and, yes, you did indeed cite the point correctly, the (somewhat condescending) response I got implied that the success was due to Q of C primarily

  112. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs

    https://theathletic.com/1166838/2019/08/28/ken-hollands-measured-summer-leaves-oilers-outside-playoffs/

  113. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thank you.

    As for the last sentence and, yes, you did indeed cite the point correctly, the (somewhat condescending) response I got implied that the success was due to Q of C primarily

    Maybe it was, we don’t know.

    You have a more optimistic view of this player than others have (obviously lol). There are valid points on both sides and only time will bear out which view anticipated the future correctly.

    Because you repeat the same statements on the same players daily, you invite those who disagree to eventually post their disagreement, perhaps, at times, out of frustration over reading the same perspective over and over again. I’m not saying change your posting habits–do what you will–but understand that you are kind of painting a target on your back. Constant repetition implies emphatic-ness… and the belief that one’s view should be the dogma. Which is fair enough, but as I said, invites a certain type of response.

  114. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    My current guess
    Russell and Jones start 3rd pair for a few games
    Then Persson will get in for a few on 3RD
    Then 1-2 games of Jones-Persson

    That kindof thing for a while
    Maybe if jones or Persson show welll they get some time @ 2RD

    All predicated on successful Klef-Ben

    Depending on injuries around the league they may be able to move Russel before the trade deadline

  115. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs

    https://theathletic.com/1166838/2019/08/28/ken-hollands-measured-summer-leaves-oilers-outside-playoffs/
    Major typo in paragraph four,

  116. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: While I don’t expect (or even care about) a return for Russell, at least $3M of cap space from the disposition is imperative for next off-season, hopefully a full $4M.

    I think the harder part of trading Russel is getting him to waive his no trade clause to a team that wants him. Is that more likely if he is playing and happy or not playing and sitting in the press box?

    Other GM’s will understand that Edmonton wants to see their kids so I don’t see that as lowering his value.

  117. Munny says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs

    https://theathletic.com/1166838/2019/08/28/ken-hollands-measured-summer-leaves-oilers-outside-playoffs/

    You’ve alluded to the Trade Deadline a few times recently, LT. If you’ve got a hole somewhere in your article schedule, I’d love to read your pre-season speculation on what should or could transpire.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: Maybe it was, we don’t know.

    You have a more optimistic view of this player than others have (obviously lol).There are valid points on both sides and only time will bear out which view anticipated the future correctly.

    Because you repeat the same statements onthe same players daily, you invite those who disagree to eventually post their disagreement, perhaps, at times, out of frustration over reading the same perspective over and over again.I’m not saying change your posting habits–do what you will–but understand that you are kind ofpainting a target on your back.Constant repetition implies emphatic-ness… and the belief that one’s view should be the dogma.Which is fair enough, but as I said, invites a certain type of response.

    Fair enough, however, in this case I was the one responding to the repetitive post of another poster

  119. Georgexs says:

    From 00-01 to 12-13, 33% of non-playoff teams (in the prior season) made the playoffs.

    From 13-14 to 18-19, the success rate for non-playoff teams jumped to 42%.

    (13-14 was the first full season under the new CBA. Not sure if that changed the field in some way.)

    The 9% difference isn’t big enough to be statistically significant. But it’s interesting.

    I’ve been looking into ways to predict which non-playoff teams will make the playoffs this season.

    Fist thing I wanted to check, because it gets discussed a lot on here, is whether the number of top 6 forwards a non-playoff team starts the season with affects its chances for qualifying. I marked a forward as top 6 if he scored at least as much as the median top 6 forward from the previous season.

    Here are the results for the 00-01 to 12-13 period:

    # of top 6 forwards, Teams, % that made the playoffs

    1, 4, 25
    2, 8, 25
    3, 16, 38
    4, 34, 38
    5, 46, 39
    6, 30, 33
    7, 21, 14
    8, 6, 17
    9, 3, 33

    If you skip the small sample results, it looks like non-playoff teams that had more top 6F’s weren’t any more likely to make the playoffs than those that had fewer top 6F’s. There’s no evidence there that increasing the number of top 6F’s on the opening roster improved a team’s playoff chances. You could sort of argue that the drop off from 6 top 6F’s on suggests that, at a certain point, having too many top 6F’s on a non-playoff team hurt the team’s playoff chances.

    And here are the results from 13-14 to 18-19:

    # of top 6 forwards, Teams, % that made the playoffs

    2, 4, 0
    3, 5, 60
    4, 13, 54
    5, 26, 31
    6, 24, 42
    7, 12, 58
    8, 2, 50

    Again, no clear evidence that having more top 6F’s improves playoff chances. The success rates are all over the place. Usually this means that this isn’t the place to look. Having more top 6 F’s doesn’t “unlock” the playoffs for non-playoff teams.

    Based on last season’s results, the Oilers will enter 19-20 with 4 top 6F’s (CMD, Drai, RNH, Chiasson).

    Here are 7 non-playoff teams in the past six seasons that also started the season with 4 top 6F’s and went on to qualify for the playoffs:

    DAL (13-14)
    MTL (16-17)
    COL (17-18)
    LAK (17-18)
    NJD (17-18)
    PHI (17-18)
    VGK (17-18)

    That compares to the following 6 non-playoff teams with 4 top 6 F’s in the same period that didn’t qualify for the playoffs:

    NSH (13-14)
    FLA (14-15)
    BOS (15-16)
    BUF (15-16)
    CAR (15-16)
    BUF (16-17)

    My point here is that, based on the data, it’s hard to take a stance that the Oilers shortage of top 6F options dooms them before the season even starts. It’s hard to justify even worrying about top 6F options. That’s not where the magic happens.

    But I guess Oilers fans have been through a lot.

  120. defmn says:

    Munny: I went to the first one and had a blast. Great arena too.Plus so easy to chat up or listen-in to the execs quaffing bevvies on the same patios.

    Yup. Great conversations with staff, prospects and media.

  121. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Fair enough, however, in this case I was the one responding to the repetitive post of another poster

    Yes, well that’s part of it. You rarely let a view on a player that conflicts with yours slide by without interjecting your stock response, despite the fact we’ve read it many times (and probably the OP’s too in many cases). Others do the same. Peeps got their drums and when it’s a drum competition, he who drums loudest and longest…

    But to do so, the drum’s gotta have some thick skin to survive that beating, knowwhadImean?

    I hope I’m not coming across as admonishing… see how hard tone is on the netwebs lol? All the best to you. OP, have a good sleep.

  122. Munny says:

    Georgexs,

    I suspect that goalering overrides all other variables.

  123. Wilde says:

    Georgexs:
    My point here is that, based on the data, it’s hard to take a stance that the Oilers shortage of top 6F options dooms them before the season even starts. It’s hard to justify even worrying about top 6F options. That’s not where the magic happens.

    What if we made up ‘top 6F’ and ‘points’?

  124. Munny says:

    I’ve gone Polish this week.

    Last night I cracked a bottle of Lezajsk and–surprisingly–did not die.

    Tonight gonna imbibe a bottle of Zywiec and see how it goes.

    Anyone else been there done that—ie. these brews?

  125. McNuge93 says:

    Munny:
    I’ve gone Polish this week.

    Last night I cracked a bottle of Lezajsk and–surprisingly–did not die.

    Tonight gonna imbibe a bottle of Zywiec and see how it goes.

    Anyone else been there done that–these brews?

    Yup, like my European lagers. Zywiec is probably the best of the Polish brews. Lech is another decent Polish lager.

  126. Glovjuice says:

    Munny:
    I’ve gone Polish this week.

    Last night I cracked a bottle of Lezajsk and–surprisingly–did not die.

    Tonight gonna imbibe a bottle of Zywiec and see how it goes.

    Anyone else been there done that—ie. these brews?

    Have done the latter- decent but Polish…..so.

    Oh, and, someone had to do it. I haven’t had the courage or articulation ability to follow through.

  127. Wilde says:

    Also, I’ll be unlocking a ton of stuff to the public closer to the beginning of the year but on Yamamoto there’s some bright spots on his underlying metrics that simultaneously bode well and point to what could be a worrying trend of a player that boosts shot metrics while not (at least, 100% not primarily) helping them convert into goals.

    Of 14 regular forwards (players who I have at least 20 games tracked), in individual metrics he is

    – #1 in primary shot contributions per hour (iCF and primary shot assists), curiously through a poor-to-mediocre shot generation (13th in per game, but shoots up to 8th in per hour) paired with off-the-charts primary shot assist generation

    – #3 in primary contribution % (the share of shots taken by the Condors when he’s on the ice that were either directly taken by him, or he had the primary assist on)

    and on-ice;

    – #1 in total CF% and #2 in on-off CF% (the difference between the Condors CF% when he’s on the ice and when he’s off the ice)

    – #2 in CF/60 and #1 in CD/60

    Yet, these high individual and on-ice shot rates both under-converted to goals, significantly.

    Which is exactly what happened in his first games in the NHL. Super high possession and individual chances, no conversion.

    If this means anything/is for real, he’ll likely be okay if he doesn’t hit, but as always the difference between being an AHLer and being a bottom-sixer is mostly up to whoever makes personnel decisions.

  128. kgo says:

    I still can’t believe MGMT was shortsighted enough to put Kailer into the show after his first training camp.

  129. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ve suggested Manning as a pure pressbox guy while one of Jones or Perssson (and, unfortunately, Lagesson) spend a bit of time in the AHL.

    I’m not sure is going to happen.

    It very well may not, but if they don’t want the younger guys sitting then Manning’s the guy. They could also do a rotation of the young guys to make so no one sits too long.

    It’s funny too that I posted Manning a couple of minutes after Ricki did (hadn’t read his comment at that point). He’s been bad and then worse in recent years.

  130. JimmyV1965 says:

    slopitch:
    I have a hard time seeing why everyone seems to love Martin Necas but Tyler Benson is considered a tier below. Yes I know Necas is 18 months younger but Benson has missed a lot of time and was almost ppg last year. Maybe ask Pronman next time you have a sec LT.

    I guess with prospects, you just dont know till you know

    The one that puzzles me is Drake Batherson. He’s the same age as Benson. They had almost identical numbers in the AHL and for some reason he gets way more love than Benson.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Batherson did was over a PPG while Benson was under but, yes, their PPG was comparable.

    Batherson (a) scored more goals (materially), (b) has success in 20 NHL games and (c) was the clear offensive leader and without another high end linemate – he had 15 points on the second leading scorer on the team (a 25 year old).

    I think Batherson’s season was indeed a bit more impressive.

  132. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: My goodness you refuse to answer direct question, consistently.

    The question was if you think Tippett with healthy scratch Russell on October 2.

    Asking why waste a month does not answer the question, even a little bit.

    It is an early test of the true nature of #Tippettary. Whether he just is another loser mediocre retread, or whether he has some potential.

  133. Wilde says:

    The one upside of having Manning is that you can plug him in if the NHL goaltending is so catastrophic that it’s detrimental to have any of the D prospects play in front of it, which is a legitimate possibility.

  134. Munny says:

    McNuge93,

    Glovjuice,

    Thx… these two beers are like polar opposites. I did not know or expect this.

    Both said they were made from the three time-honoured ingredients of beer-makiing… alcohol, bubbles and flavoured water, but…

    Yesterday’s was all hopsy like a robust Heinekin, today’s is all malty. And both are at the far end of their spectrum.

    Haven’t tried a Lech, will see if I can hunt Mr. Walesa down.

  135. rickithebear says:

    Georgexs:
    From 00-01 to 12-13, 33% of non-playoff teams (in the prior season) made the playoffs.

    From 13-14 to 18-19, the success rate for non-playoff teams jumped to 42%.

    (13-14 was the first full season under the new CBA. Not sure if that changed the field in some way.)

    The 9% difference isn’t big enough to be statistically significant. But it’s interesting.

    I’ve been looking into ways to predict which non-playoff teams will make the playoffs this season.

    Fist thing I wanted to check, because it gets discussed a lot on here, is whether the number of top 6 forwards a non-playoff team starts the season with affects its chances for qualifying. I marked a forward as top 6 if he scored at least as much as the median top 6 forward from the previous season.

    Here are the results for the 00-01 to 12-13 period:

    # of top 6 forwards, Teams, % that made the playoffs

    1, 4, 25
    2, 8, 25
    3, 16, 38
    4, 34, 38
    5, 46, 39
    6, 30, 33
    7, 21, 14
    8, 6, 17
    9, 3, 33

    If you skip the small sample results, it looks like non-playoff teams that had more top 6F’s weren’t any more likely to make the playoffs than those that had fewer top 6F’s. There’s no evidence there that increasing the number of top 6F’s on the opening roster improved a team’s playoff chances. You could sort of argue that the drop off from 6 top 6F’s on suggests that, at a certain point, having too many top 6F’s on a non-playoff team hurt the team’s playoff chances.

    And here are the results from 13-14 to 18-19:

    # of top 6 forwards, Teams, % that made the playoffs

    2, 4, 0
    3, 5, 60
    4, 13, 54
    5, 26, 31
    6, 24, 42
    7, 12, 58
    8, 2, 50

    Again, no clear evidence that having more top 6F’s improves playoff chances. The success rates are all over the place. Usually this means that this isn’t the place to look. Having more top 6 F’s doesn’t “unlock” the playoffs for non-playoff teams.

    Based on last season’s results, the Oilers will enter 19-20 with 4 top 6F’s (CMD, Drai, RNH, Chiasson).

    Here are 7 non-playoff teams in the past six seasons that also started the season with 4 top 6F’s and went on to qualify for the playoffs:

    DAL (13-14)
    MTL (16-17)
    COL (17-18)
    LAK (17-18)
    NJD (17-18)
    PHI (17-18)
    VGK (17-18)

    That compares to the following 6 non-playoff teams with 4 top 6 F’s in the same period that didn’t qualify for the playoffs:

    NSH (13-14)
    FLA (14-15)
    BOS (15-16)
    BUF (15-16)
    CAR (15-16)
    BUF (16-17)

    My point here is that, based on the data, it’s hard to take a stance that the Oilers shortage of top 6F options dooms them before the season even starts. It’s hard to justify even worrying about top 6F options. That’s not where the magic happens.

    But I guess Oilers fans have been through a lot.

    “GF is not were the majic happens.”

    I did this work years ago.

    Shot density & Open Closed shot position mechanism
    Fwd, Dmen, Goalies married with Path of identification.

    40% more top GA teams make final 8 than top GF teams.

    7 of every 8 final 4 are top GA teams.

    This is the most simple of pre analytic study!

    Their is a path to understanding:

    1996 FLD panthers.

    Top GA with one of 2 origional table hockey movement goalies.
    JVB.

    A top HD def dman that repeats championships on other teams.

    Rhett Warner:
    FLD 1996
    BUF 1999
    CGY 2004

    Repeated HD dman depth.

    The GA. Cup core.

    Teams chasing top forward production depth, do not understand the importance of being low GA per game teams.

  136. Pescador says:

    Wilde:
    The one upside of having Manning is that you can plug him in if the NHL goaltending is so catastrophic that it’s detrimental to have any of the D prospects play in front of it, which is a legitimate possibility.

    I never thought there was any possible upside whatsoever to the Manning trade,
    I stand corrected!

  137. Pescador says:

    Munny:
    I’ve gone Polish this week.

    Last night I cracked a bottle of Lezajsk and–surprisingly–did not die.

    Tonight gonna imbibe a bottle of Zywiec and see how it goes.

    Anyone else been there done that—ie. these brews?

    Yes, I have sampled a few Polish offerings. But
    I found that when you are near the eastern block,
    Beer is a lot like sex
    once you go German, it’s hard to go back
    Erdinger
    That is all

  138. Munny says:

    Pescador,

    Erdinger is on the list.

  139. Ryan says:

    Georgexs,

    I marked a forward as top 6 if he scored at least as much as the median top 6 forward from the previous season.

    I wonder about your definitions. Are you using scoring rates per/game, per hour, or total points to define a top six player?

    1. How do you account for injuries? What if a team has a Sidney Crosby who puts up 20 points in ten games then gets injured. Would you count this player because of scoring rates per g? If so, then he will get accurate labelled a top six player, but the impact of his loss from the roster will not.

    If you use total points to define top six players, you’ll miss actual top six players who too many missed games due to injury. Conversely, if you define scoring by rates, you’ll avoid that problem, but lose the impact of injury. Also you’ll pick up some tweeners who had good scoring rates for brief periods, but didn’t play many games which will muddy your data.

    2. Why median top six player scoring rate as a cutoff? That’s weird to me, because ow you’re defining a top six player as one who scores at a rate above the hypothetical top four? The Oilers obviously have four top four player left then porridge after that.

    Woodguy did some calculations on the back of a napkin that looked at rates of teams making the playoffs whether or not they had four actual NHL defensemen. He found some correlations. If you don’t have four actual NHL defensemen, no playoffs for you more often then not

  140. Yeti says:

    godot10: It is an early test of the true nature of #Tippettary. Whether he just is another loser mediocre retread, or whether he has some potential.

    I’m not sure how you relate coaching ability to putting an unproven Swedish import on the second pairing who hasn’t played N.American ice before and who has large questions about his defensive game … Even if he does have the potential to play there in the medium term (would be great!) the correct thing to do is almost certainly to start him on 3RD and ease him up.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: It is an early test of the true nature of #Tippettary. Whether he just is another loser mediocre retread, or whether he has some potential.

    Again, do think think Tippett will have Russell in the lineup on October 2?

  142. rickithebear says:

    Slushy:

    Flashing the perimeter of the DZ chasing offence is poor hockey.
    The question is were do the forwards provide transition passing.
    Is NZ transition, OZ entry and HD area penetration more successful with forward control.
    My look says yes.

    When watching today’s game.
    How successful is Dmen driving transition.
    The open HD area shot rates say not very good compared to forwards.

    OZ line retention is a function failure of 3-1-1-1 structure.

    I have not even got into explaining that part of the offensive attack retention.

    It is of coarse a huge counter attack issue.
    Just me stating the Rover being the 4th & 5th skater back should tell everyone they are not in natural position for point coverage & retention in OZ.

    I was going to blame the increase of seasonal median save% on equipment change.
    But the top of the save% class got way better as the median dropped.
    The bottom of the class dropped.

    Should see a consistent shift in full range. At top & bottom.

    A system affected change allows for increase at top & decrease at bottom.

    Hence many teams eager to abandon HD area def and open shot prevention having a large affect on dave%.

    As well as HD area counterattack.

  143. Professor Q says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Draisaitl on Puljujaarvi.
    With video.
    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/is-there-any-reason-for-optimism-in-edmonton-this-season

    “I shouldn’t be commenting about it. Stop asking me.”

    Five reporters continue to press him on the subject

  144. rickithebear says:

    Ryan:
    Missed games is a performance issue.

    That is why Hall is a elite player one of every 4 full seasons of play.
    He can be counted on to be a top 60 fwd 3 of every 4 seasons.
    We’re Eberle was on of the 14 most consistent production forwards thru his Oiler career.

    What do you get more of in a 4 yr cycle.
    Elite
    Top 60
    Top 125

    Goals matter the most!

  145. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Again, do think think Tippett will have Russell in the lineup on October 2?

    I’m giving Tippett a chance to do the right thing. It is a “test”. The “Russell” test. It will be a sign as to whether he is a coach with potential, or just another forgettable body behind the bench.

    I’ve stated my position that Russell should be #7 if everyone is healthy.

  146. Georgexs says:

    Ryan:
    Georgexs,

    I marked a forward as top 6 if he scored at least as much as the median top 6 forward from the previous season.

    I wonder about your definitions. Are you using scoring rates per/game, per hour, or total points to define a top six player?

    1. How do you account for injuries? What if a team has a Sidney Crosby who puts up 20 points in ten games then gets injured. Would you count this player because of scoring rates per g? If so, then he will get accurate labelled a top six player, but the impact of his loss from the roster will not.

    If you use total points to define top six players, you’ll miss actual top six players who too many missed games due to injury. Conversely, if you define scoring by rates, you’ll avoid that problem, but lose the impact of injury. Also you’ll pick up some tweeners who had good scoring rates for brief periods, but didn’t play many games which will muddy your data.

    2. Why median top six player scoring rate as a cutoff? That’s weird to me, because ow you’re defining a top six player as one who scores at a rate above the hypothetical top four? The Oilers obviously have four top four player left then porridge after that.

    Woodguy did some calculations on the back of a napkin that looked at rates of teams making the playoffs whether or not they had four actual NHL defensemen. He found some correlations. If you don’t have four actual NHL defensemen, no playoffs for you more often then not

    I’m using total points to categorize forwards.

    Why not use rates?

    1. Rates can overestimate actual offense because players don’t play a full schedule. Taylor Hall scored at a 1.12 P/GP pace last season but he only played 33 games. He was still a top 6 forward because he scored 37 points which was more than the 34 points the median top 6F scored last season: Trochek in FLA scored 34 points in 55 games, a 0.62 P/GP pace and Heinen scored 34 in BOS in 77 games, a 0.44 P/GP pace. Three quite different rates producing about the same total offense for their teams.

    2. Also, for forwards, totals captures their whole offensive contribution. Totals has a higher correlation with future totals than other stats like goals, assists, 5v5 P/60, EV G/60, etc. have with their future counterparts. Not only that, totals is often a better predictor of future performance on these secondary stats than the original stat itself. Rates are less reproducible than totals.

    It’s true that by focusing on actual point totals in the past season, I’ll miss situations in which a very good player didn’t play enough to reach the top 6 threshold. That’ll result in me underestimating the number of top 6 forwards teams start the season with. But I don’t think this is very common. Crosby, for example, has always met the top 6 threshold. It’s probably a bigger hazard for players who are consistently top 6 but not as far from the threshold. So, in a year they get a major injury that knocks them down from a top 6 performance, they fall back and, in the following year, they may not be top 6 any more. It’s possible that the fringe top 6 players have a harder time coming back after a major injury.

    As for using the median, I start by determining the 6th highest scoring forward on each team from last season. Then, I find the median points total for this group. Any one at or above the median is a top 6 forward. Why median? Well, 16 teams, roughly half, make the playoffs. So if a team has a 6th forward who outscores the median, then, on that basis alone, the team is ahead of the opposition in the playoff race.

    If I had sorted forwards and used a minimum game cutoff (say 20 games) and then found the points total of the 186th forward (Svechnikov @ 37), I would have found that some teams have more offense than others. An 8th highest scoring forward on an offensive powerhouse will outscore a less prolific offensive team’s 5th highest scoring forward. So 37 points overstates the offense available to the typical team from its 6th forward. That’s what I’m after. What kind of offense does it take for the low end playoff team to make the playoffs? What can playoff teams make do with in terms of potential offense leading into a season from their top 6 forwards? Are the Oilers so different from other teams in what they start out with? And, if they have less than 6 top 6 forwards, does that have any predictive value, in and of itself, on whether the team will make the playoffs. My answer, using this methodology, is no: there’s no reason to believe that starting the season with just 4 top 6 forwards decreases the team’s playoff chances. Based on recent history, non-playoff teams starting with just 4 top 6 forwards have been able to make the playoffs more often than not. I’ll run through those teams over the next bit to see what I can find.

    As for WG’s observation on having top 4 defensemen and making the playoffs, I’ve done no work at all on that front.

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