Big Opportunity

by Lowetide

Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody and Kailer Yamamoto are looking for the same kind of opportunity afforded Anton Slepyshev in 2016-17. Slepyshev scored 4-6-10 in 41 games (455:52, 1.32 points-per-60, all at five-on-five) playing mostly with Drake Caggiula, Milan Lucic and Leon Draisaitl. That’s the kind of landing spot Benson, Marody and Yamamoto are hoping for this fall.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • **New Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
  • New Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
  • New Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
  • Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

NUMBERS

Eric Rodgers has done great things for Oilers fans over the years and his work most recently offers us great insight into minor league performance. His ability to estimate even-strength TOI is a Godsend. It gives us an educated guess about scoring levels with the added advantage of looking at things on a level playing field.

Back in 2015-16, Rodgers estimated Anton Slepyshev’s total icetime per game was 13:26 in 49 games. He scored 4-0-4 on the power play, about the same as Josh Currie in 2018-19. Currie is estimated to have spent 1:07 on the PP, and I’m going to use that number on Slepyshev’s 2015-16 season as an estimate. If I’m right, Slepyshev would have scored 9-8-17 in those 49 games, and 1.69 even strength points-per-60. That’s a shy number for a skilled man, but dovetails nicely with Slepyshev’s NHL even-strength points per 60:

2015-16: 1.69 (estimate)

2016-17: 1.33 (actual)

2017-18: 1.24 (actual)

Slepyshev kept 80 percent of his five-on-five offence if my numbers are right. AHL to NHL equivalencies run around 45 percent overall but that includes power-play numbers.

If we use 80 percent of Slepyshev’s 1.69 as a line in the sand, how many of Benson, Marody and Yamamoto rank above that number for their 2018-19 work?

Cooper Marody: 15-30-45 in an estimated 1,039 minutes. That means Marody posted a 2.60 points-per-60 (estimated) at even strength.

Tyler Benson: 13-29-42 in an estimated 1,143 minutes. That means Benson posted a 2.20 points-per-60 (estimated) at even strength.

Kailer Yamamoto: 4-8-12 in an estimated 390 minutes. That means Yamamoto posted a 1.84 points-per-60 (estimated) at even strength.

Marody 80 percent: 2.08 per 60.

Benson 80 percent: 1.76 per 60.

Yamamoto 80 percent: 1.47 per 60.

Marody is a stronger offensive prospect than Slepyshev by some measure, and Benson’s numbers are also well clear of the Russian. Kailer Yamamoto is ‘in the range’ and will have to establish himself at a higher level (and with a healthy wrist he should spike).

Jujhar Khaira

Khaira’s even strength estimate for 2015-16 was 1.84 per 60 and the following year (2016-17) 1.64. His even-strength per 60 numbers in the NHL are 1.44 (2017-18) and 1.45 (2018-19). He retained 83 percent of his even strength offense.

What does it all mean?

Coach Tippett might look past Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson this fall. The organization’s mission statement is about slow playing the talent now, these men would be overcooked by this time next year.

I don’t think the club can afford it. Marody’s competition at RW is Zack Kassian, Alex Chiasson, Sam Gagner and Josh Archibald. His competition at No. 3 center is Gaetan Haas, Jujhar Khaira and Colby Cave.

Benson’s competition at left-wing includes Leon Draisaitl, James Neal, Markus Granlund, Joakim Nygard and Khaira. It’s more substantial than the RW side, but Neal can play either wing and there’s room for an offensive winger.

I think one of these two men (Marody, Benson) will emerge this season, maybe both. The two youngsters might not be long term answers but their time appears to be now.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today on the show (10 this morning, TSN1260) we’ll be joined by Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll talk Jesse Puljujarvi and trade value, plus the roster and playoff chances. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will pop in to talk all the footballs plus U.S. Open tennis. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Rock on! Jimmy Dean. Jimmy Dean.

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Georgexs

Ryan:
Georgexs,

I marked a forward as top 6 if he scored at least as much as the median top 6 forward from the previous season.

I wonder about your definitions. Are you using scoring rates per/game, per hour, or total points to define a top six player?

1. How do you account for injuries? What if a team has a Sidney Crosby who puts up 20 points in ten games then gets injured. Would you count this player because of scoring rates per g? If so, then he will get accurate labelled a top six player, but the impact of his loss from the roster will not.

If you use total points to define top six players, you’ll miss actual top six players who too many missed games due to injury. Conversely, if you define scoring by rates, you’ll avoid that problem, but lose the impact of injury. Also you’ll pick up some tweeners who had good scoring rates for brief periods, but didn’t play many games which will muddy your data.

2. Why median top six player scoring rate as a cutoff? That’s weird to me, because ow you’re defining a top six player as one who scores at a rate above the hypothetical top four? The Oilers obviously have four top four player left then porridge after that.

Woodguy did some calculations on the back of a napkin that looked at rates of teams making the playoffs whether or not they had four actual NHL defensemen. He found some correlations. If you don’t have four actual NHL defensemen, no playoffs for you more often then not

I’m using total points to categorize forwards.

Why not use rates?

1. Rates can overestimate actual offense because players don’t play a full schedule. Taylor Hall scored at a 1.12 P/GP pace last season but he only played 33 games. He was still a top 6 forward because he scored 37 points which was more than the 34 points the median top 6F scored last season: Trochek in FLA scored 34 points in 55 games, a 0.62 P/GP pace and Heinen scored 34 in BOS in 77 games, a 0.44 P/GP pace. Three quite different rates producing about the same total offense for their teams.

2. Also, for forwards, totals captures their whole offensive contribution. Totals has a higher correlation with future totals than other stats like goals, assists, 5v5 P/60, EV G/60, etc. have with their future counterparts. Not only that, totals is often a better predictor of future performance on these secondary stats than the original stat itself. Rates are less reproducible than totals.

It’s true that by focusing on actual point totals in the past season, I’ll miss situations in which a very good player didn’t play enough to reach the top 6 threshold. That’ll result in me underestimating the number of top 6 forwards teams start the season with. But I don’t think this is very common. Crosby, for example, has always met the top 6 threshold. It’s probably a bigger hazard for players who are consistently top 6 but not as far from the threshold. So, in a year they get a major injury that knocks them down from a top 6 performance, they fall back and, in the following year, they may not be top 6 any more. It’s possible that the fringe top 6 players have a harder time coming back after a major injury.

As for using the median, I start by determining the 6th highest scoring forward on each team from last season. Then, I find the median points total for this group. Any one at or above the median is a top 6 forward. Why median? Well, 16 teams, roughly half, make the playoffs. So if a team has a 6th forward who outscores the median, then, on that basis alone, the team is ahead of the opposition in the playoff race.

If I had sorted forwards and used a minimum game cutoff (say 20 games) and then found the points total of the 186th forward (Svechnikov @ 37), I would have found that some teams have more offense than others. An 8th highest scoring forward on an offensive powerhouse will outscore a less prolific offensive team’s 5th highest scoring forward. So 37 points overstates the offense available to the typical team from its 6th forward. That’s what I’m after. What kind of offense does it take for the low end playoff team to make the playoffs? What can playoff teams make do with in terms of potential offense leading into a season from their top 6 forwards? Are the Oilers so different from other teams in what they start out with? And, if they have less than 6 top 6 forwards, does that have any predictive value, in and of itself, on whether the team will make the playoffs. My answer, using this methodology, is no: there’s no reason to believe that starting the season with just 4 top 6 forwards decreases the team’s playoff chances. Based on recent history, non-playoff teams starting with just 4 top 6 forwards have been able to make the playoffs more often than not. I’ll run through those teams over the next bit to see what I can find.

As for WG’s observation on having top 4 defensemen and making the playoffs, I’ve done no work at all on that front.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: Again, do think think Tippett will have Russell in the lineup on October 2?

I’m giving Tippett a chance to do the right thing. It is a “test”. The “Russell” test. It will be a sign as to whether he is a coach with potential, or just another forgettable body behind the bench.

I’ve stated my position that Russell should be #7 if everyone is healthy.

rickithebear

Ryan:
Missed games is a performance issue.

That is why Hall is a elite player one of every 4 full seasons of play.
He can be counted on to be a top 60 fwd 3 of every 4 seasons.
We’re Eberle was on of the 14 most consistent production forwards thru his Oiler career.

What do you get more of in a 4 yr cycle.
Elite
Top 60
Top 125

Goals matter the most!

Professor Q

Harpers Hair:
Draisaitl on Puljujaarvi.
With video.
https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/is-there-any-reason-for-optimism-in-edmonton-this-season

“I shouldn’t be commenting about it. Stop asking me.”

Five reporters continue to press him on the subject

rickithebear

Slushy:

Flashing the perimeter of the DZ chasing offence is poor hockey.
The question is were do the forwards provide transition passing.
Is NZ transition, OZ entry and HD area penetration more successful with forward control.
My look says yes.

When watching today’s game.
How successful is Dmen driving transition.
The open HD area shot rates say not very good compared to forwards.

OZ line retention is a function failure of 3-1-1-1 structure.

I have not even got into explaining that part of the offensive attack retention.

It is of coarse a huge counter attack issue.
Just me stating the Rover being the 4th & 5th skater back should tell everyone they are not in natural position for point coverage & retention in OZ.

I was going to blame the increase of seasonal median save% on equipment change.
But the top of the save% class got way better as the median dropped.
The bottom of the class dropped.

Should see a consistent shift in full range. At top & bottom.

A system affected change allows for increase at top & decrease at bottom.

Hence many teams eager to abandon HD area def and open shot prevention having a large affect on dave%.

As well as HD area counterattack.

OriginalPouzar

godot: It is an early test of the true nature of #Tippettary. Whether he just is another loser mediocre retread, or whether he has some potential.

Again, do think think Tippett will have Russell in the lineup on October 2?

Yeti

godot10: It is an early test of the true nature of #Tippettary. Whether he just is another loser mediocre retread, or whether he has some potential.

I’m not sure how you relate coaching ability to putting an unproven Swedish import on the second pairing who hasn’t played N.American ice before and who has large questions about his defensive game … Even if he does have the potential to play there in the medium term (would be great!) the correct thing to do is almost certainly to start him on 3RD and ease him up.

Ryan

Georgexs,

I marked a forward as top 6 if he scored at least as much as the median top 6 forward from the previous season.

I wonder about your definitions. Are you using scoring rates per/game, per hour, or total points to define a top six player?

1. How do you account for injuries? What if a team has a Sidney Crosby who puts up 20 points in ten games then gets injured. Would you count this player because of scoring rates per g? If so, then he will get accurate labelled a top six player, but the impact of his loss from the roster will not.

If you use total points to define top six players, you’ll miss actual top six players who too many missed games due to injury. Conversely, if you define scoring by rates, you’ll avoid that problem, but lose the impact of injury. Also you’ll pick up some tweeners who had good scoring rates for brief periods, but didn’t play many games which will muddy your data.

2. Why median top six player scoring rate as a cutoff? That’s weird to me, because ow you’re defining a top six player as one who scores at a rate above the hypothetical top four? The Oilers obviously have four top four player left then porridge after that.

Woodguy did some calculations on the back of a napkin that looked at rates of teams making the playoffs whether or not they had four actual NHL defensemen. He found some correlations. If you don’t have four actual NHL defensemen, no playoffs for you more often then not

Munny

Pescador,

Erdinger is on the list.

Pescador

Munny:
I’ve gone Polish this week.

Last night I cracked a bottle of Lezajsk and–surprisingly–did not die.

Tonight gonna imbibe a bottle of Zywiec and see how it goes.

Anyone else been there done that—ie. these brews?

Yes, I have sampled a few Polish offerings. But
I found that when you are near the eastern block,
Beer is a lot like sex
once you go German, it’s hard to go back
Erdinger
That is all

Pescador

Wilde:
The one upside of having Manning is that you can plug him in if the NHL goaltending is so catastrophic that it’s detrimental to have any of the D prospects play in front of it, which is a legitimate possibility.

I never thought there was any possible upside whatsoever to the Manning trade,
I stand corrected!

rickithebear

Georgexs:
From 00-01 to 12-13, 33% of non-playoff teams (in the prior season) made the playoffs.

From 13-14 to 18-19, the success rate for non-playoff teams jumped to 42%.

(13-14 was the first full season under the new CBA. Not sure if that changed the field in some way.)

The 9% difference isn’t big enough to be statistically significant. But it’s interesting.

I’ve been looking into ways to predict which non-playoff teams will make the playoffs this season.

Fist thing I wanted to check, because it gets discussed a lot on here, is whether the number of top 6 forwards a non-playoff team starts the season with affects its chances for qualifying. I marked a forward as top 6 if he scored at least as much as the median top 6 forward from the previous season.

Here are the results for the 00-01 to 12-13 period:

# of top 6 forwards, Teams, % that made the playoffs

1, 4, 25
2, 8, 25
3, 16, 38
4, 34, 38
5, 46, 39
6, 30, 33
7, 21, 14
8, 6, 17
9, 3, 33

If you skip the small sample results, it looks like non-playoff teams that had more top 6F’s weren’t any more likely to make the playoffs than those that had fewer top 6F’s. There’s no evidence there that increasing the number of top 6F’s on the opening roster improved a team’s playoff chances. You could sort of argue that the drop off from 6 top 6F’s on suggests that, at a certain point, having too many top 6F’s on a non-playoff team hurt the team’s playoff chances.

And here are the results from 13-14 to 18-19:

# of top 6 forwards, Teams, % that made the playoffs

2, 4, 0
3, 5, 60
4, 13, 54
5, 26, 31
6, 24, 42
7, 12, 58
8, 2, 50

Again, no clear evidence that having more top 6F’s improves playoff chances. The success rates are all over the place. Usually this means that this isn’t the place to look. Having more top 6 F’s doesn’t “unlock” the playoffs for non-playoff teams.

Based on last season’s results, the Oilers will enter 19-20 with 4 top 6F’s (CMD, Drai, RNH, Chiasson).

Here are 7 non-playoff teams in the past six seasons that also started the season with 4 top 6F’s and went on to qualify for the playoffs:

DAL (13-14)
MTL (16-17)
COL (17-18)
LAK (17-18)
NJD (17-18)
PHI (17-18)
VGK (17-18)

That compares to the following 6 non-playoff teams with 4 top 6 F’s in the same period that didn’t qualify for the playoffs:

NSH (13-14)
FLA (14-15)
BOS (15-16)
BUF (15-16)
CAR (15-16)
BUF (16-17)

My point here is that, based on the data, it’s hard to take a stance that the Oilers shortage of top 6F options dooms them before the season even starts. It’s hard to justify even worrying about top 6F options. That’s not where the magic happens.

But I guess Oilers fans have been through a lot.

“GF is not were the majic happens.”

I did this work years ago.

Shot density & Open Closed shot position mechanism
Fwd, Dmen, Goalies married with Path of identification.

40% more top GA teams make final 8 than top GF teams.

7 of every 8 final 4 are top GA teams.

This is the most simple of pre analytic study!

Their is a path to understanding:

1996 FLD panthers.

Top GA with one of 2 origional table hockey movement goalies.
JVB.

A top HD def dman that repeats championships on other teams.

Rhett Warner:
FLD 1996
BUF 1999
CGY 2004

Repeated HD dman depth.

The GA. Cup core.

Teams chasing top forward production depth, do not understand the importance of being low GA per game teams.

Munny

McNuge93,

Glovjuice,

Thx… these two beers are like polar opposites. I did not know or expect this.

Both said they were made from the three time-honoured ingredients of beer-makiing… alcohol, bubbles and flavoured water, but…

Yesterday’s was all hopsy like a robust Heinekin, today’s is all malty. And both are at the far end of their spectrum.

Haven’t tried a Lech, will see if I can hunt Mr. Walesa down.

Wilde

The one upside of having Manning is that you can plug him in if the NHL goaltending is so catastrophic that it’s detrimental to have any of the D prospects play in front of it, which is a legitimate possibility.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: My goodness you refuse to answer direct question, consistently.

The question was if you think Tippett with healthy scratch Russell on October 2.

Asking why waste a month does not answer the question, even a little bit.

It is an early test of the true nature of #Tippettary. Whether he just is another loser mediocre retread, or whether he has some potential.

OriginalPouzar

Batherson did was over a PPG while Benson was under but, yes, their PPG was comparable.

Batherson (a) scored more goals (materially), (b) has success in 20 NHL games and (c) was the clear offensive leader and without another high end linemate – he had 15 points on the second leading scorer on the team (a 25 year old).

I think Batherson’s season was indeed a bit more impressive.

JimmyV1965

slopitch:
I have a hard time seeing why everyone seems to love Martin Necas but Tyler Benson is considered a tier below. Yes I know Necas is 18 months younger but Benson has missed a lot of time and was almost ppg last year. Maybe ask Pronman next time you have a sec LT.

I guess with prospects, you just dont know till you know

The one that puzzles me is Drake Batherson. He’s the same age as Benson. They had almost identical numbers in the AHL and for some reason he gets way more love than Benson.

jp

OriginalPouzar: I’ve suggested Manning as a pure pressbox guy while one of Jones or Perssson (and, unfortunately, Lagesson) spend a bit of time in the AHL.

I’m not sure is going to happen.

It very well may not, but if they don’t want the younger guys sitting then Manning’s the guy. They could also do a rotation of the young guys to make so no one sits too long.

It’s funny too that I posted Manning a couple of minutes after Ricki did (hadn’t read his comment at that point). He’s been bad and then worse in recent years.

kgo

I still can’t believe MGMT was shortsighted enough to put Kailer into the show after his first training camp.

Wilde

Also, I’ll be unlocking a ton of stuff to the public closer to the beginning of the year but on Yamamoto there’s some bright spots on his underlying metrics that simultaneously bode well and point to what could be a worrying trend of a player that boosts shot metrics while not (at least, 100% not primarily) helping them convert into goals.

Of 14 regular forwards (players who I have at least 20 games tracked), in individual metrics he is

– #1 in primary shot contributions per hour (iCF and primary shot assists), curiously through a poor-to-mediocre shot generation (13th in per game, but shoots up to 8th in per hour) paired with off-the-charts primary shot assist generation

– #3 in primary contribution % (the share of shots taken by the Condors when he’s on the ice that were either directly taken by him, or he had the primary assist on)

and on-ice;

– #1 in total CF% and #2 in on-off CF% (the difference between the Condors CF% when he’s on the ice and when he’s off the ice)

– #2 in CF/60 and #1 in CD/60

Yet, these high individual and on-ice shot rates both under-converted to goals, significantly.

Which is exactly what happened in his first games in the NHL. Super high possession and individual chances, no conversion.

If this means anything/is for real, he’ll likely be okay if he doesn’t hit, but as always the difference between being an AHLer and being a bottom-sixer is mostly up to whoever makes personnel decisions.

Glovjuice

Munny:
I’ve gone Polish this week.

Last night I cracked a bottle of Lezajsk and–surprisingly–did not die.

Tonight gonna imbibe a bottle of Zywiec and see how it goes.

Anyone else been there done that—ie. these brews?

Have done the latter- decent but Polish…..so.

Oh, and, someone had to do it. I haven’t had the courage or articulation ability to follow through.

McNuge93

Munny:
I’ve gone Polish this week.

Last night I cracked a bottle of Lezajsk and–surprisingly–did not die.

Tonight gonna imbibe a bottle of Zywiec and see how it goes.

Anyone else been there done that–these brews?

Yup, like my European lagers. Zywiec is probably the best of the Polish brews. Lech is another decent Polish lager.

Munny

I’ve gone Polish this week.

Last night I cracked a bottle of Lezajsk and–surprisingly–did not die.

Tonight gonna imbibe a bottle of Zywiec and see how it goes.

Anyone else been there done that—ie. these brews?

Wilde

Georgexs:
My point here is that, based on the data, it’s hard to take a stance that the Oilers shortage of top 6F options dooms them before the season even starts. It’s hard to justify even worrying about top 6F options. That’s not where the magic happens.

What if we made up ‘top 6F’ and ‘points’?

Munny

Georgexs,

I suspect that goalering overrides all other variables.

Munny

OriginalPouzar: Fair enough, however, in this case I was the one responding to the repetitive post of another poster

Yes, well that’s part of it. You rarely let a view on a player that conflicts with yours slide by without interjecting your stock response, despite the fact we’ve read it many times (and probably the OP’s too in many cases). Others do the same. Peeps got their drums and when it’s a drum competition, he who drums loudest and longest…

But to do so, the drum’s gotta have some thick skin to survive that beating, knowwhadImean?

I hope I’m not coming across as admonishing… see how hard tone is on the netwebs lol? All the best to you. OP, have a good sleep.

defmn

Munny: I went to the first one and had a blast. Great arena too.Plus so easy to chat up or listen-in to the execs quaffing bevvies on the same patios.

Yup. Great conversations with staff, prospects and media.

Georgexs

From 00-01 to 12-13, 33% of non-playoff teams (in the prior season) made the playoffs.

From 13-14 to 18-19, the success rate for non-playoff teams jumped to 42%.

(13-14 was the first full season under the new CBA. Not sure if that changed the field in some way.)

The 9% difference isn’t big enough to be statistically significant. But it’s interesting.

I’ve been looking into ways to predict which non-playoff teams will make the playoffs this season.

Fist thing I wanted to check, because it gets discussed a lot on here, is whether the number of top 6 forwards a non-playoff team starts the season with affects its chances for qualifying. I marked a forward as top 6 if he scored at least as much as the median top 6 forward from the previous season.

Here are the results for the 00-01 to 12-13 period:

# of top 6 forwards, Teams, % that made the playoffs

1, 4, 25
2, 8, 25
3, 16, 38
4, 34, 38
5, 46, 39
6, 30, 33
7, 21, 14
8, 6, 17
9, 3, 33

If you skip the small sample results, it looks like non-playoff teams that had more top 6F’s weren’t any more likely to make the playoffs than those that had fewer top 6F’s. There’s no evidence there that increasing the number of top 6F’s on the opening roster improved a team’s playoff chances. You could sort of argue that the drop off from 6 top 6F’s on suggests that, at a certain point, having too many top 6F’s on a non-playoff team hurt the team’s playoff chances.

And here are the results from 13-14 to 18-19:

# of top 6 forwards, Teams, % that made the playoffs

2, 4, 0
3, 5, 60
4, 13, 54
5, 26, 31
6, 24, 42
7, 12, 58
8, 2, 50

Again, no clear evidence that having more top 6F’s improves playoff chances. The success rates are all over the place. Usually this means that this isn’t the place to look. Having more top 6 F’s doesn’t “unlock” the playoffs for non-playoff teams.

Based on last season’s results, the Oilers will enter 19-20 with 4 top 6F’s (CMD, Drai, RNH, Chiasson).

Here are 7 non-playoff teams in the past six seasons that also started the season with 4 top 6F’s and went on to qualify for the playoffs:

DAL (13-14)
MTL (16-17)
COL (17-18)
LAK (17-18)
NJD (17-18)
PHI (17-18)
VGK (17-18)

That compares to the following 6 non-playoff teams with 4 top 6 F’s in the same period that didn’t qualify for the playoffs:

NSH (13-14)
FLA (14-15)
BOS (15-16)
BUF (15-16)
CAR (15-16)
BUF (16-17)

My point here is that, based on the data, it’s hard to take a stance that the Oilers shortage of top 6F options dooms them before the season even starts. It’s hard to justify even worrying about top 6F options. That’s not where the magic happens.

But I guess Oilers fans have been through a lot.

OriginalPouzar

Munny: Maybe it was, we don’t know.

You have a more optimistic view of this player than others have (obviously lol).There are valid points on both sides and only time will bear out which view anticipated the future correctly.

Because you repeat the same statements onthe same players daily, you invite those who disagree to eventually post their disagreement, perhaps, at times, out of frustration over reading the same perspective over and over again.I’m not saying change your posting habits–do what you will–but understand that you are kind ofpainting a target on your back.Constant repetition implies emphatic-ness… and the belief that one’s view should be the dogma.Which is fair enough, but as I said, invites a certain type of response.

Fair enough, however, in this case I was the one responding to the repetitive post of another poster

Munny

Lowetide:
For The Athletic: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs

https://theathletic.com/1166838/2019/08/28/ken-hollands-measured-summer-leaves-oilers-outside-playoffs/

You’ve alluded to the Trade Deadline a few times recently, LT. If you’ve got a hole somewhere in your article schedule, I’d love to read your pre-season speculation on what should or could transpire.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: While I don’t expect (or even care about) a return for Russell, at least $3M of cap space from the disposition is imperative for next off-season, hopefully a full $4M.

I think the harder part of trading Russel is getting him to waive his no trade clause to a team that wants him. Is that more likely if he is playing and happy or not playing and sitting in the press box?

Other GM’s will understand that Edmonton wants to see their kids so I don’t see that as lowering his value.

Harpers Hair

Lowetide:
For The Athletic: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs

https://theathletic.com/1166838/2019/08/28/ken-hollands-measured-summer-leaves-oilers-outside-playoffs/
Major typo in paragraph four,

GordieHoweHatTrick

My current guess
Russell and Jones start 3rd pair for a few games
Then Persson will get in for a few on 3RD
Then 1-2 games of Jones-Persson

That kindof thing for a while
Maybe if jones or Persson show welll they get some time @ 2RD

All predicated on successful Klef-Ben

Depending on injuries around the league they may be able to move Russel before the trade deadline

Munny

OriginalPouzar: Thank you.

As for the last sentence and, yes, you did indeed cite the point correctly, the (somewhat condescending) response I got implied that the success was due to Q of C primarily

Maybe it was, we don’t know.

You have a more optimistic view of this player than others have (obviously lol). There are valid points on both sides and only time will bear out which view anticipated the future correctly.

Because you repeat the same statements on the same players daily, you invite those who disagree to eventually post their disagreement, perhaps, at times, out of frustration over reading the same perspective over and over again. I’m not saying change your posting habits–do what you will–but understand that you are kind of painting a target on your back. Constant repetition implies emphatic-ness… and the belief that one’s view should be the dogma. Which is fair enough, but as I said, invites a certain type of response.

OriginalPouzar

Munny: I don’t believe any of us know either way, which is more important or has the bigger effect on offensive output.It may even vary from individual to individual, or at different stages of development.

And if we did know, we wouldn’t know some other important things in this case… like by how much the comp was too easy or the linemates too offensively challenged,Was one more out-of-whack than the other?Which one and by how much?

I don’t think this issue takes away from your basic point though, which I will reiterate as “prior to his injury, KY was proving to be the offensive driver on his line, Bako’s 3rd.”

Thank you.

As for the last sentence and, yes, you did indeed cite the point correctly, the (somewhat condescending) response I got implied that the success was due to Q of C primarily

Scungilli Slushy

rickithebear:
We know most top 210 EVG scorers are fwds.
That Rover lead rushes are 4 times less likely to generate a goal.
GF is largely a forward measure.
From Cf to CA is largely Forward dependent.
Good GA dmenmust colapse to the HD area if fwd NZ trap is not run.

With Holland stating he wanted defenceman offence generated as 4th and fifth options.
That means zone penetration and initial option #1 to #3 are expected to be driven by forwards.
Strong skaters like
Mcdavid
Draisaitl
Kassian

Luckily Holland sought out top skaters who scouting says are drivers of transition entry.
Archibald
Jurco
Nygard
Haas

Sedin said Granlund was that but it is a teammate observation rather than scout point of view.

With top GA teams advancing to final 8, final 4 at a far superior rate.
You want top evga/corsi D pair and Goalie (2-1) structures.

The median evga/60 by season
14-15 2.32
15-16 2.32
16-17 2.39
17-18 2.53
18-19 2.64

Top evga/60 def pairs 90:00+ EVTOI in
18-19 2.64
Manning – Benning 1.31 evga/60 3rd comp
Nurse – Russell 2.28 evga/60 2nd comp
Klefbom – Larsson 2.48 evga/60 1st comp

14-15 and 15-16
Larsson was the #2 1.64 evga/60 dman behind
#1 B. manning 1.50 evga/60

No wonder Manning – Benning was a unbelievable Dpair.
A top 10 & top 40 caliber HD dman structured Dpairgenerating a top 5 evga/60 rate.

I am excited to see what our best HD def D prospect in 20 years can do playing with Larsson.

We have the 2 best def Dmen pre 16-17 on our roster.
Manning, Larsson
Nurse – Russell showed a +ve goal dif evga/60 relative to median.
Benning a top 40 HD dman.
Lagesson our best HD def prospect.

Nurse – Larsson
17-18 1.83 evga/60
18-19 4.24 evga/60

Hopefully Tippett & Playfair can turn Nurse & Klefbom into proper def dmen like Tippett did with OEL in his first 3 season as Arz coach.

That’s backwards sort of my friend.

D drive transition, forwards drive scoring. Think of where they are on the ice in each zone. Think of scoring rates in terms of closeness to the offensive net.

For years Oiler forwards have not been supporting the D transitioning, is it system or is it talent or is it cooperativeness?

Oiler forwards overall have not been good cycling HD chances consistently, and Oiler D have been poor maintaining the offensive blue line in my reckoning.

I believe it has been coaching and systems, although I am not convinced the coaches were free to choose what they wanted to do.

Because Oilers.

I am getting the sense that Katz and whomever are backing off finally. Such failure and the risk of revenue loss is speaking loudly. Money always speaks the loudest in business and basically everything else.
None of can know for sure.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Manning. I think.

I’ve suggested Manning as a pure pressbox guy while one of Jones or Perssson (and, unfortunately, Lagesson) spend a bit of time in the AHL.

I’m not sure is going to happen.

jp

OriginalPouzar: In a way, I guess – at the same time, if they are spending the entire time defending…..
Russell gives up zone entries very easy – I assume Persson isn’t great at defending the blueline.
Russell can get the puck back but can’t get it out without it coming right back.
I’m not sure Persson will be great at getting the puck back.
I’m actually really excited to see Persson play – I assume he won’t be playing the rookie games due to age but maybe?

Maybe I should have said “in one theoretical kinda way”, there could indeed be issues. In all likelihood we’ll get a chance to see them together at some point.

OriginalPouzar

godot: Why waste a month of the season?Start as you mean to go on.

My goodness you refuse to answer direct question, consistently.

The question was if you think Tippett with healthy scratch Russell on October 2.

Asking why waste a month does not answer the question, even a little bit.

OriginalPouzar

ScungilliSlushy:

And no Mr Godot Russell won’t be in the PB. Holland is too smart to torpedo his asset that is going to be traded ASAP.

While I don’t expect (or even care about) a return for Russell, at least $3M of cap space from the disposition is imperative for next off-season, hopefully a full $4M.

Scungilli Slushy

Munny:
I don’t know what the hell Rusty is going to do with Michael J. Smith playing behind him. Smith is the very definition of the goalie-type for whom you want to stand up sorties at the blue line.

Russell will love him because he’ll make the pass for him.

Glovjuice

Fun fact: Alberta was in the Stanley Cup Finals for eight straight years.

Munny

defmn: Looking forward to it. Sorry they cancelled the Penticton tournaments.

I went to the first one and had a blast. Great arena too. Plus so easy to chat up or listen-in to the execs quaffing bevvies on the same patios.

Munny

OriginalPouzar: He drove offence playing with 3rd line AHL linemates – from what I’ve read on here, Quality of Linemates is more important that QoC.

I don’t believe any of us know either way, which is more important or has the bigger effect on offensive output. It may even vary from individual to individual, or at different stages of development.

And if we did know, we wouldn’t know some other important things in this case… like by how much the comp was too easy or the linemates too offensively challenged, Was one more out-of-whack than the other? Which one and by how much?

I don’t think this issue takes away from your basic point though, which I will reiterate as “prior to his injury, KY was proving to be the offensive driver on his line, Bako’s 3rd.”

defmn

Munny: I’ve worn mine to the Saddledome, regular season, pre-season and rookie games.

I think you’ll be surprised at the number of Oil jerseys you’ll see there for a rookie game.

Looking forward to it. Sorry they cancelled the Penticton tournaments.

defmn

Yeti: I think the 7D setup is more likely, but who knows? It would be great if Persson can handle the 3RD position + play significant PP minutes.

Agreed. That would be a strong result for the team.

Harpers Hair
Munny

I don’t know what the hell Rusty is going to do with Michael J. Smith playing behind him. Smith is the very definition of the goalie-type for whom you want to stand up sorties at the blue line.

Munny

defmn: Should I wear one of my Oiler’s jerseys?

I’ve worn mine to the Saddledome, regular season, pre-season and rookie games.

I think you’ll be surprised at the number of Oil jerseys you’ll see there for a rookie game.