Hockey is a game of windows, of opportunities with expiration dates. We’ve talked a lot about Caleb Jones, William Lagesson and Ethan Bear facing a massive season in their careers all summer. However, that’s only as it pertains to Edmonton, all three men should get a chance here or elsewhere. What about the men those three (plus Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov) are going to push out of the way?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.
- New Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
- New Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
- New Jonathan Willis: Did Milan Lucic take a shot at Connor McDavid’s leadership?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
- Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
- Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
THE NEXT FEW MONTHS
If we use our thinking caps it’s possible to read the future. Edmonton has a surplus in one area (defense) and a dire need in others (scoring wingers, possibly center, maybe in goal).
Matt Benning is an NHL defenseman. I like him. Lots of good arrows for this player and I think there would be some interest if Edmonton saw fit to move him along. Here are the Puck IQ numbers versus elites last season, Benning didn’t play the big minutes but flourished when he did play against elites.
So that’s why the rookie camp and the main camp and the preseason are important. Someone from the bubbling under group is going to push, and I don’t just mean hanging on. If the Oilers feel good enough about the youngsters at the end of camp, we could see a trade.
Many of you want Kris Russell traded but he’s got a contract that has some hurdles. Benning might be a cleaner trade. I don’t want Benning traded, for me he’s inexpensive and has a range of skills.
WHAT WOULD IT LOOK LIKE?
Let’s assume the coaching staff has a whiteboard in Dave Tippett’s office that looks like this:
Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Persson
Russell-Benning
Caleb Jones-Evan Bouchard
William Lagesson-Ethan Bear
Dmitri Samorukov-Logan Day
Brandon Manning-Keegan Lowe
Assuming Persson does not stumble, and one of Jones, Lagesson, Bear, Bouchard and Samorukov show well, the clock (imo) starts ticking. Once those RFA contracts start getting signed around the league, Benning’s value contracts is going to become more attractive. Repeat: I don’t like the idea of trading him. It is the logical move.
Benning’s contract is $1.9 million this season and he’s RFA next summer. The Oilers may be able to procure a young winger for him in the coming days. If Persson steps up, and Jones does too, we officially have another window opening. It won’t be long.
If Marleau is coming to Edmonton (and I’m thinking it’s a long shot) then a Russell trade becomes more likely. Edmonton would need to move more than Benning’s $1.9 million out (Oilers could save $1.2 million-ish by replacing him with Ethan Bear) in order to accommodate a Marleau deal. I believe it’s very unlikely. A reasonable expectation for Marleau in 2019-20 would be 82, 19-21-40.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we shed a short week and start daydreaming about another weekend on TSN1260! Steve Lansky will drop in to talk about Bianca Andreescu, the signing of Sheahan and getting ready for another season. Matthew Iwanyk will arrive around 11 and talk Eskimos and we’ll have a pile of texts and discussion. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Dac189,
This post is 2 days old, might want to post on the new one!
All this talk about trading Russell but he was the 4th best defenseman last season. Moved to his offside because Benning couldn’t handle 2nd pairing.
You trade Russell and you have to rely of Persson, Jones, Bouchard and however many more players depending on injuries. These guys have barely played at all in NHL.
How many Oilers rookies have been successful in their rookie season this past decade? Hall, Nuge, EBS, Yak, McDavid.
Maybe nurse and klefbom, don’t really remember how their first seasons went.
Still expecting 3 D rookies to make it in 1 year is super optimistic.
Leivo has never been a feature player, and hasn’t had a lot of playing time, but his numbers are fabulous. He’s an efficient player looking for opportunity. I like his chances even this late.
As you’ve often said, opportunity matters a lot and so does who you play with.
Josh Leivo is a good example.
As the Canucks are currently constructed, Leivo will most likely play on the third line with Brandon Sutter as his centre.
Pretty tough to spike under thos circumstances.
Hintz is the opposite since he will likely play second line minutes with Joe Pavelski.
Not to worry! Charlie Huddy is with the Jets, not the Flames.
18/19
Hall
#26 LW 1.12 evg/60
#7 LW 2.80 evp/60
#60 LW 10 evg
#53 LW 25 evp
Missed games is a performance issue.
Totals are TOI dependent.
Damn it LT:
That was a great fact based post!
I even used my Pub Adm learning as a 16 yr old in Univ.
Plus all the you tube videos & MIT lecture notes on line over the last half yr.
Plus political experience working for
NDP
Liberal
PC
Rhino
Plus I was going to pull out homicide stats from 2014 to 2018
Showing the high rates of shootings, stabbings, & beatings.
The need for seperate
A. stabbing prevention
Knife, axe, Cutlery Vaults, pocession license training and registry.
B. Beating prevention
Bat, hammer, Mallet, Hockey stick vaults, pocession license training and registry.
All shooting PAL holders grandfathered in for A and B.
DR. T:
The prick schtick is just me when it comes to my game play theories.
Get some sleep so you can woke in the morning.
Georgexs,
Great analysis George. Loved it!
I can’t remember who said it in my twitter feed but they were re-litigating the merits of hockey analytics, I believe in respect to Scheifele’s comments on analytics not being able to prove there is chemistry between certain players. Obviously he hasn’t run into a detailed Woodguy WOWY treatise.
But the comment that I saw was that hockey analytics isn’t about getting things right or medelling things perfectly but to show how to be “less wrong” more often or to find ways to be more efficient.
Kind of like the Carolina Hurricane’s signing of Gardiner on the cheap
Lead farmer:
Re my work.
You claim to have been here since 2006.
Then you would have read my work.
Descriptions of physical mechanisms.
HD area ( rickisbox) by shot success by location.
HD: LD ratio.
The argument of continued high shooting%
It’s corelation to HD penetration.
HD shot success map.
Quality HD dmen.
The second phase of Goal dif.
Quality
Open closed corsi
Open shots being only scorable shot.
All this is 8-12 yr old.
If it I do present.
It will be presented in a simple chart, Video based series of my theories as a guest writer for post media.
In partnership with the web site builder friend of my wife’s.
Edited with my wife’s voice
Cause I am a prick when it comes to discussing my theories.
I will not Gamble.
I had a 2 week suspension near the end of grade 8 for running a Black jack ring.
I do not predict (guess)
You can structure a team for success.
It can be the deepest in a conference.
But 2 of the last 3 seasons the best structured team had unique ref calls punt them from playoffs.
16/17 EDM 2 non calls on clear goalie interference.
18/19 VGK A 5 min major in game 7.
Refs have the critical influence that can affect PT outcomes in a season.
There is no science to that!
Oilers play a hockey game tonight. Just the “prospects” but still. Awesome. Can’t wait.
there better not have been too much chuddery this time
I do believe that 5v5 Pts/60 is more useful for finding players who may be ready to move up the ladder next season. Someone who largely outperforms his TOI/GP peers may be ready to move up from say 3rd line duty to 2nd line duty or 2nd to 1st. They often really stand out in the data and can be had for somewhat of a bargain.
Wow, I missed a hell of a thread tonight. Fun fun.
Also, I believe 5v5 Pts/60 is a better predictor if you adjust for TOI/GP. Better yet, Away 5v5 Primary Pts/60. That’s right, I said it. AWAY 5v5 PRIMARY Pts/60. Wait, also “Within 1”. Away 5v5 Within 1 Primary Pts/60 Adjusted for TOI/GP. So there! Wait, also adjusted for age. Early birthdays for drafting and aging curve drop-off for older players. There it is, now you have it. Goodnight.
I feel the need to make a bold proclamation: (puts hands on hips, stares off into the distance) I am a scientific, woke Social Justice Warrior, and damn proud of it. Whoever doesn’t like that, come at me. ;-p
Does Khaira look at this info and think to himself,
“Why couldn’t my agent be like Keller’s agent?”
If only contracts were based on these numbers!
Your first link does not work.
It’s always interesting when people use ‘freedom of expression’, ‘free speech’, interchangeably when talking about the government.
“Limits on speech were incorporated in the criminal code in relation to treason, sedition, blasphemous and defamatory libel, disruption of religious worship, hate propaganda, spreading false news, public mischief, obscenity, indecency and other forms.
— Prof. Dominique Clément, University of Alberta”
Some people seem to be upset about this, not sure why.
Some people seem to think they can say whatever they want, wherever they want (in public, on forums, etc.) and when they are told they can’t, they cry “free speech”. Free speech =/= freedom from consequences of said “free speech”.
Like when LT just deleted someone’s post in this thread. Whoever posted it can say whatever it is they said without repercussion from the government (unless they fall into limits outlined above), but that doesn’t mean they can say it without repercussion from our host.
I don’t see people cryin about free speech when LT deletes a post he does not want on his site.
hunter1909,
Yes, but that expression was never true. If it were true, the world wouldn’t be what it is today.
Not sure what “free speech” has to do with walking in and out of airports.
Not sure why you think my definition is “updated”, that has always been the definition.
It has been mostly reasonable, I would say. One deleted post. Not bad.
In fairness, producing offense at 5v5 is not quite the hardest aspect of the game. Producing offense while short-handed actually is the hardest aspect of the game, but the contribution of offense short-handed is actually fairly negligible.
Is producing offense harder at 5v5 than on the powerplay? Yes, that’s self-evident (scoring rates are much higher on the PP) so it’s more than just a notion that producing offense at 5v5 is the hardest aspect of the game.
Teams have 4-5 minutes per night on the powerplay and 4-5 minutes per night on the PK, so that leaves around 50 minutes per game or so of even-strength play. Hence, scoring at even strength matters.
Also, for forward skaters, really only 4 guys get those prime powerplay 1 minutes while many barely get a sniff. If you’re looking at bottom of the roster players, if they aren’t scoring at evens, what are they doing? Also other teams have bottoms six players that actually score while playing in the bottom six. The Oilers have some guys like Kassian who can’t piss a drop unless they’re playing in the top six.
If you look at toi/g and points per game as different variables. Points per game, as a variable, is dependent on toi/g while points/60 is independent of toi/g.
Let’s say we have two players who both score 2 points per hour.
Player A – Plays 22 games. Goes on a PDO heater. Gets outshot, out corsied, out everything, but goes on a good run. He plays 10 minutes per game with no PP time. Let’s say he puts up 0.7 points per game.
Player B – Plays 82 games. Plays 20 minutes per game all situations. Let’s say he puts up a ppg.
Which player is more likely to score at 2 points per hour next season?
I don’t know about you, but my money’s on player B.
What do we know about player b that we don’t know about player A?
He played more games during the season.
He played more minutes per game.
toi/g is vital info in predicting which player is more likely to repeat their scoring. Not many guys who play 10 minutes per game are going to consistently score 2 points per hour if any.
I think you would have to control for player age and likely more importantly toi/g.
I can go back to the same Vo2 example
If resting heart rate, ambulatory blood pressure, or bodyweight are better predictors than an athlete’s current Vo2 max for his Vo2 max next year, it doesn’t in form of argument prove that they are better at measuring his current fitness, just better at predicting his fitness level next season.
Corsi % is apparently a better predictor of future goals for % than goals for % itself.
Assuming that is still considered true… Would your conclusion be that Corsi % is a better measure of scoring ability than goals for %
OR… just a better method of predicting future GF% at the player level?
Marleau is an interesting case study though.
FWIW, his three lowest years in 5×5 P/60 are 07-08 (his worst), 15-16 and 18-19 (both tied for second worst)
Those years had some of his poorest shooting percentages and shot rates but still within the historic range.
The number that was really bad and by a good margin in all three of those years was 2nd Assists/60. Way outside his historic range.
The guy might still have it.
I see LT is now the Lord of the Flies as necessitated by this great community.
Anyways, the track Pneuma off the latest Tool album is one of the high points in metal history.
And, the new Lana Del Rey is a stunningly great album.
Finally, an Alberta team was in the Stanley Cup finals 8 of 10 straight years. Neat. Never happen again for any state or province even if we last for a million years.
Sounds fair. Here are 10 forwards I believe will spike in the coming year, all of them under 1.50 per 60 five on five in 2018-19. I think they’re all reasonable bets to post 1.50 per 60 or more. I included Roslovic because I think he’s a candidate to spike in a big way (2.00) and would include Keller, too.
1. Jack Roslovic 1.48
2. Evan Rodrigues 1.39
3. Jujhar Khaira 1.38
4. Clayton Keller 1.24
5. Vincent Trocheck 1.22
6. Josh Leivo 1.19
7. Roope Hintz 1.18
8. Ryan Strome 1.12
9. Andrew Cogliano 1.05
10. Filip Chytil 0.94
10. Jesse Puljujarvi 0.80
Based on three year averages, some of that outside the NHL (and that would include points-per-game in those moments outside the NHL), I think those 11 men are a good bet to fly past their 2018-19 mark. Not everyone, as you note there are things that happen (maybe Cogliano’s bat really is too slow). However, using five-on-five per 60, I think these names are a good place to look for a spike.
Nice post
Deleted my prior post because Georges has taken up the challenge and I’m tired.
I hadn’t seen that data about the year-over-year consistency of those other metrics until Revolved posted it in this thread. You need a blog 🙂
That really doesn’t sound like fun.
I wouldn’t mind analyzing the data. I don’t have a copy of SPSS anymore (just mentioning SPSS makes me sound like a dinosaur, I know), but I can make due with Excell for the purposes of this analysis.
I agree which Is why I included early in the season. I think it’s important for the Oilers to get off to a good start hence Russel in the lineup early in the case of a hiccup with the less experienced D. I am hoping that having PK specialists on the roster will allow the coach to keep Connor and Leon’s ice time down from last year.
Ryan absolutely killed it in this thread. It is too bad that his interlocutors do not understand what he is saying.
Okay, for Christ sake can we leave wives and mothers of prime ministers out of this blog. Please and thank.
rickithebear,
That’s probably cause they haven’t gotten an answer since 2006
Also being one of the few people here that were here in 2006 I can state for a fact that you were definitely not here.
So can we get that prediction or not?
You can’t blame social justice warriors for your lack of prediction and don’t know why you always bring them up cause there is not a single social justice warrior on this site
Apparently this would have been a good day to invest in cans of worms lol.
“Have any examples of these ‘non scientific woke social justice warriors’?”
I do but this is not the proper forum to discuss such an inflammatory topic. Hint: Self-identification
“I am also curious as to what you mean by the Alberta government requiring protection of free speech?”
Something like the “Chicago Principles”
https://en.wikhttps://www.thefire.org/get-involved/student-network/take-action/adopting-the-chicago-statement/ipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_principles
https://provost.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/documents/reports/FOECommitteeReport.pdf
“Because the University is committed to free and open inquiry in all matters, it guarantees all members of the University community the broadest possible latitude to speak, write, listen, challenge, and learn . . . . [I]t is not the proper role of the University to attempt to shield individuals from ideas and opinions they find unwelcome, disagreeable, or even deeply offensive.”
—Excerpt from the Chicago Statement
i am not going to pre-judge the coach.
Back in the 20th century we used to have an expression: “Sticks and Stones may break my bones but names will never hurt me”.
We also used to walk in and out of airports whenever and however we pleased.
Thank you for the updated, 21st century definition of “free speech”.
What? Are you sure? 🙂
Can you please answer the question – there is no need to be intentionally frustrating.
No. I did the same for Eakins and McLellan. I turned on Eakins in the 2nd week of October. McLellan came close to making it to November.
I was extremely skeptical of Eakins going in, because I was more familiar with his coaching. I had never really watched McLellan’s Sharks closely. So I was fooled like everyone else by the hype.
And yet, we are unable to identify them. Are there 10 forwards who we can predict having a spike this year, before training camp, based on last year’s numbers? I think that would be an exceptional group of 10 to test the theory.
You have taken what?
I am 97.7% sure you are the one that is constantly insulting and disparaging other posters. Your shtick is getting tired.
RYan:
Feeling good about incorrect low resolution analysis cause you are able to understand it is human nature.
But it does not make you any better at understanding winning hockey.
How many people can say they looked at 25 years of championship rosters.
Identified the multivariable complexity of the roster thru his many theories.
Have the Vegas Golden Knights select 100% of the players that fit the Championship roster theory.
Have them win a championship.
As predicted pre expansion draft on HF boards.
Have any examples of these ‘non scientific woke social justice warriors’?
I am also curious as to what you mean by the Alberta government requiring protection of free speech?
People seem to use free speech as if it means they can say whatever they want, whenever they want without repercussions from anyone, but they are 100% wrong in this case.
Is this a new leaf you are turning? Usually you have branded the Oilers coach as terrible or mediocre by now.
I asked (this is some time ago) George about players who didn’t perform well at five-on-five per 60 but DID perform well at overall points per 60. If a player could score 1.10 points per 60 at five on five but 1.85 even strength, I might buy the idea that my devotion to five-on-five per 60 should be altered.
IS there a group of forwards like this? Don’t know. I’m not interested in adopting George’s system but was and am interested in it. There’s a difference. I don’t have to get baptized in the religion to be curious.
I am relaxed. This is my relaxed posting!
I have no clue why you are even replying to me to be honest, your night sounds much more entertaining and rewarding.
I have taken that from you guys since 05-06.
It is normal social discourse I have experienced.
Quit acting like those non scientific woke social justice warriors who completely ignore real science and facts.
Who think any one who differs from them are extremist hate brokers who are mean as shit.
Thank heavens Alberta government is looking at requiring protection of free speech.
The 2nd test is not overplaying McDavid and Draisaitl. 22 minutes and a few seconds max, for each.
Wow. I’m just killing time between Archer episodes drinking a fine Gose. Relax. Tek cheel peel. Why you heff to be mad?
Georgexs likes his chicken spicy
I hope for the best. I expect the worst. I don’t want to pre-judge the coach. I’m going to give him a chance to do the right thing.
To expand on my comment that I don’t know what you’re asking for…
You seem to have set some arbitrary lines in the sand. I don’t know why they’ve been set, why they are as large (or small) as they are, or why “consistently” is a factor when inconsistency numerically YOY is what’s been demonstrated.
You seem to want Georges to convince you that going from 50 percent correlation to 80 percent correlation is only the right thing to do if he has specific examples of 100 percent correlation, and only then if the two sets of production data for that individual are radically different.
And he has to demonstrate this for his specific example over three years when YOY is the question at hand.
You’re also asking for overall scoring per 60 when IIRC PPG held the strongest correlation.
Maybe I’m mis-reading what you’re asking for, as I said I can’t figure it out, but the test doesn’t seem fair or relevant. For me the confirming test would be for Woodguy to re-run the data and see if the correlations are correct. That peer review would be far more convincing and eliminate the possibility of some error or misrepresentation.