It Don’t Come Easy

What would an ideal AHL season look like for the Oilers organization? If we look back in April 2020 on this Bakersfield Condors team, what would represent a perfect day?

As you may know, if you’ve slogged your way through one of my ‘Farm Workers’ episodes, it’s my belief that the outer marker for AHL grads (men who have played 120+ games in the minors) is a quality NHL player. Fernando Pisani was a quality NHL player but he wasn’t a superstar. His skill set is the outer marker, the goal. That’s a fine player.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
  • New Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
  • New Lowetide: Sheahan hurt, Oilers in need of a two-way centre; some candidates emerging
  • New Jonathan Willis: Handicapping the chase for the Calder after the first month of the 2019-20 NHL season
  • Jonathan Willis: Unproductive Oilers forwards are in danger of losing their jobs — and soon
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the current state of the Edmonton Oilers goaltending.
  • Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers trade for a veteran NHL defenceman?
  • Lowetide: Oilers first-round pick Philip Broberg increases his role; Condors’ Caleb Jones looks NHL-ready
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
  • Lowetide: Josh Archibald’s injury and limited replacements available puts some pressure on Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 reasons why the Oilers passed their first true test of the season
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and James Neal are leading a quality Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Assessing the early season progress of Oilers’ defence and goaltending
  • Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s impressive Liiga performance headlines Oilers prospects this week
  • Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

NHLE’S (AHL FORWARDS)

Ken Holland’s plan to ‘over-ripen’ prospects includes a step forward by said prospects during the season. That’s my take anyway. So, one of the things we should be looking for is a spike in production, especially among forwards. So far this season, the forwards are flat or worse:

  1. Joe Gambardella 32.9
  2. Brad Malone 28.8
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 25.6
  4. Josh Currie 25.6
  5. Tyler Benson 25.6
  6. Cooper Marody 21.3
  7. Colby Cave 19.2
  8. Ryan McLeod 12.8
  9. Luke Esposito 8.5

Ideally, you’d like to see someone pushing 40 NHLE at some point this season. Plenty of time to go, but if you’re recalling (say) Yamamoto today, it’s for reasons other than his forcing the issue. Here, let’s look at last season’s forwards:

  1. Cooper Marody 42.3
  2. Tyler Benson 37.3
  3. Joe Gambardella 36.8
  4. Josh Currie 29.7
  5. Kailer Yamamoto 25.6
  6. Cam Hebig 17.4
  7. Nolan Vesey 6.8

The forwards are all down year over year (Yamamoto is running in place) and part of that is the power play. I don’t think the Oilers can recall any forward on merit. A year ago,
Benson became the sixth real forward prospect since 2010 to play as a regular at 20 (Teemu Hartikainen, Tyler Pitlick, Magnus Paajarvi, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira). This year, Ryan McLeod and Kirill Maksimov will look to join the group.

NHLE (AHL DEFENSE)

  1. Caleb Jones 21.3
  2. Evan Bouchard 17.1
  3. Dmitri Samorukov 4.3
  4. Keegan Lowe 4.3

Points from defensemen is a little less valuable in terms of assessing defensemen, but it does speak to time on ice and success. It’s difficult for a defender to post a high number, anything over 20 is good and implies a two-way player. Expect a spike from both Bouchard and Samorukov in the coming months. Here are last year’s numbers:

  1. Ethan Bear 22.9
  2. Caleb Jones 22.3
  3. Logan Day 20.4
  4. William Lagesson 15.5

As is the case this year (so far), 20+ points is a good indicator of offensive success. Lagesson’s points came at evens, so that’s a fine number, too. Ethan Bear was an AHL regular at 20, one of four since 2010 (Martin Marincin, Martin Gernat, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones) and it looks like Bouchard and Samorukov are joining the party this season.

TWEENERS

The truth is that ‘tweeners’ are the biggest AHL category and point totals can fool you. Rob Schremp was a tweener, he scored 53 points in 69 AHL games at age 20 ( not quite Benson levels). Anton Lander was a tweener, Ty Rattie was a tweener.

Maybe Kailer Yamamoto will be a tweener. I don’t think he will, but this blog thought Marc Pouliot, Teemu Hartikainen and Linus Omark would make it. There’s luck, good and bad, in making it from the tweener division. Part of luck is injury. Ask Pouliot.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Friday morning gets started at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will drop by from the Royal Winter Fair. We’ll chat World Series, Oilers start, Leafs worries and the Tkachuk goal. Matthew Iwanyk will discuss the Eskimos-Roughriders game, Tiger’s recent success and what it might mean for 2020, and Ravens-Patrioits. Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will preview the NFL weekend. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Rock On. Rock On. Jimmy Dean.

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229 Responses to "It Don’t Come Easy"

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  1. John Chambers says:

    A couple of 7-goal outbursts will pop the numbers for the Bakersfield crew.

    Is Marody a call-up option for Sheahan?

  2. BONE207 says:

    These tweeners are definitely a worry. With all the 5th & 6th line players on the big club, the farm not producing early or even from training camp on, means no cavalry. Why can’t we still, not have nice things?

  3. 442 says:

    BONE207,

    I think at some point holland is going to be compelled to make a defence for offense trade that will be more win now in flavour than he likes.If benson and Yamo and Marody aren’t going to ride in as the cavalry this season. I just don’t see how you could let the bottom six sewer a season where you have the two best players in the league on your team and a solid showing from the defence and goalie ring.

  4. BONE207 says:

    442,

    Do you have an Oldsmobile? 442 were nice cars

  5. BONE207 says:

    442:
    BONE207,

    I think at some point holland is going to be compelled to make a defence for offense trade that will be more win now in flavour than he likes.If benson and Yamo and Marodyaren’t going to ride in as the cavalry this season. I just don’t see how you could let the bottom six sewer a season where you have the two best players in the league on your team and a solid showing from the defence and goalie ring.

    This would mean the vaunted “3-1” trade. The minor league pieces & unproven defensive prospects are not going to bring in any appreciable value on their own. I have an extra box of Halloween chocolates I could add to the deal.

  6. Harpers Hair says:

    Colby Cave recalled.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers recall Cave which makes sense given Sheahan and Archie are top PK guys and they don’t want to lean on Drai too much.

    May be precautionary as Sheahan is on the ice today.

  8. tileguy says:

    Interesting reading DSF/harpershair reasons for why he is no longer a fan of the oilers. Here is a little video to recap those reasons.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t79pQ-OMYpU

  9. who says:

    442:
    BONE207,

    I think at some point holland is going to be compelled to make a defence for offense trade that will be more win now in flavour than he likes.If benson and Yamo and Marodyaren’t going to ride in as the cavalry this season. I just don’t see how you could let the bottom six sewer a season where you have the two best players in the league on your team and a solid showing from the defence and goalie ring.

    I don’t think Holland is going to sacrifice the future to make a playoff push this year.
    I do think he would be willing to trade a young dman for a young forward. I see Benning, Jones and Lagesson as the most likely trade chips. They may be willing to trade Lagesson or Benning for a rental like Toffoli.
    It appears that Benning has already been passed by Bear and Persson, and will soon be passed by Bouchard.
    Jones and Lagesson are blocked by Russell right now. And by the time Russells contract is finished they may have been passed by Samarukov and Broberg. Definitely have a surplus on the left side.

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    who: I don’t think Holland is going to sacrifice the future to make a playoff push this year.
    I do think he would be willing to trade a young dman for a young forward. I see Benning, Jones and Lagesson as the most likely trade chips. They may be willing to trade Lagesson or Benning for a rental like Toffoli.
    It appears that Benning has already been passed by Bear and Persson, and will soon be passed by Bouchard.
    Jones and Lagesson are blocked by Russell right now. And by the time Russells contract is finished they may have been passed by Samarukov and Broberg. Definitely have a surplus on the left side.

    I maintain Chia’s biggest mistake was that he didn’t realize he had a decent team after the playoff season because it wasn’t part of his plan or vision of how a team should win according to past experience.

    I hope can realize found money when it presents itself and adapt his plans accordingly.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Stauffer:

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Khaira-RNH-Gagner
    Neal-Haas-Chiasson
    Granlund-Sheahan-P Russell
    Jurco

    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Persson
    Russell-Benning
    Manning

    Smith
    Koskinen

    —————————————

    Looks like Sheahan may be able to go which is great news.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lagesson was assigned to the Bake and Cave called up. Looks like Cave is precautionary as Sheahan is practicing this morning and centering the fourth line.

    Really disappointed they didn’t get Lagesson in a couple of games when Persson was hurt.

    Spelling Manning for a couple of those 7 games was the absolute perfect opportunity.

    I really don’t get it but, oh well, what can you do?

  13. leeinvan says:

    The farm team is really struggling, not sure why. The roster is an up-grade from last season but they just can’t seem to get it going.

    I really thought they would be crushing it, I know its early but sooner or later the team needs to get going. Benson and Marody don’t seem to have the same fire they did last year. Benson went down early, maybe he is struggling with that after a season that should have given him a bit more rope.

  14. 442 says:

    BONE207,

    No it’s more a reference to the soccer formation. We grew up in a ford family.

  15. godot10 says:

    Anton Lander was a legit 4th line forward by the time he was discarded. He is better than a lot of guys that played after he left, and better than a lot of guys playing this year.

    Choosing to be a 1st line forward in the KHL, and being a middle six forward for Sweden internationally when the NHL doesn’t show up is a better gig than wandering around the NHL trying to hang on as a 4th liner.

  16. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    A couple of 7-goal outbursts will pop the numbers for the Bakersfield crew.

    Is Marody a call-up option for Sheahan?

    Penalty-killing trumps all. If Marody isn’t penalty killing in Bakersfield, he won’t be a callup unless McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins is injured.

  17. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As per Stauffer:

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Khaira-RNH-Gagner
    Neal-Haas-Chiasson
    Granlund-Sheahan-P Russell
    Jurco

    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Persson
    Russell-Benning
    Manning

    Smith
    Koskinen

    —————————————

    Looks like Sheahan may be able to go which is great news.

    Myself I would come right back with Smith agaiinst Pittsburgh then I realized the following home game is against Smith’s old team and divisional rival Coyotes.

  18. godot10 says:

    who: I don’t think Holland is going to sacrifice the future to make a playoff push this year.
    I do think he would be willing to trade a young dman for a young forward. I see Benning, Jones and Lagesson as the most likely trade chips. They may be willing to trade Lagesson or Benning for a rental like Toffoli.
    It appears that Benning has already been passed by Bear and Persson, and will soon be passed by Bouchard.
    Jones and Lagesson are blocked by Russell right now. And by the time Russells contract is finished they may have been passed by Samarukov and Broberg. Definitely have a surplus on the left side.

    Toffoli brings nothing that Neal and Gagner don’t bring. Why would you want three forwards who can’t skate and can’t PK. Plus, Toffoli looks like, unlike Neal, that he is too slow to get to his spots.

  19. PennersPancakes says:

    godot10: Anton Lander was a legit 4th line forward by the time he was discarded.

    You’re right in the sense hed fit in with the Oilers bottom 6 right now… But that isnt a group of players anyone wants to be compared to. He could PK but couldnt do anything offensively in the NHL.

    The same Lander who had box cars of:

    Year – GP – G – A – P
    11-12 – 56 – 2 – 4 – 6
    12-13 – 11 – 0 – 1 – 1
    13-14 – 27 – 0 – 1 – 1
    14-15 – 38 – 6 – 14 – 20
    15-16 – 61 – 1 – 2 – 3
    16-17 – 22 – 1 – 3 – 4

    This is not a player I would pine over. I wish him the best of success but other than the half season in which Nelson gave him time with Hall he couldnt produce enough offensively even for the fourth line.

  20. Professor Q says:

    I understand that Carlson had an October not seen since Al MacInnis, but Draisaitl had an October not seen since Wayne Gretzky. Leads the NHL in goals and points.

    How in the world he only got 3rd Star of the Month is beyond me (other than East Coast Bias).

  21. drglen says:

    Cave callled up OK. I figured they wouldn’t call up a young prospect as it were…

    would have been different if they lost in columbus.

    Talk about tweeners, .. we should talk about Jurco. He looks dangerous at times, .. but nothing comes of it, and perhaps they don’t like his defense in the bottom 6. He’s a guy they can dress for limited minutes if needed… but based on preseason I thought we’d get more from the player.

  22. McSorley33 says:

    So far this season, the forwards are flat or worse:
    ***************************************************************************************************************
    Truth.

    This organization needs – a lot – more quality forward prospects in the system.

    in a cap world, you have to draft them.

    I am hoping Benson and Marody had a bit of a hangover from being relatively early
    cuts from the big club. Maybe they will turn it on in Nov and Dec.

    I mean Marody is about to turn 23 – if not now – when?

    Strongly suspect ( hope I am wrong ) that the org. has made the call on Gambardella and Marody not having the wheels for the show.

    Cooper Marody was taken in the 6th round of the draft for a reason and traded by the Flyers.

    Played at U of Michigan with Kyle Connor and is nearly the exact same age.

  23. drglen says:

    godot10: Toffoli brings nothing that Neal and Gagner don’t bring.Why would you want three forwards who can’t skate and can’t PK. Plus, Toffoli looks like, unlike Neal, that he is too slow to get to his spots.

    I had thought about Toffoli, if he could be had for cheap ( not really) and for very low term.

    I’m actually wondering if there is any law that would prevent Holland from bringing back Burdosov? out of the K…

    Benning may be odd man out at some point but he’s been solid and this is where overripen comes in.. he’s not going to bring up jones and lagesson until we get an injury again. Won’t make any moves at all until the playoffs are close and we are close… we just have to get in.. I think,.. Holland is waiting until february/march.. some contending or close to contending team will have a major defensive injury, or two… and he’ll be able to move Russell at that point. (i’d like to see his NTC for cities…. I think he’d go to Calgary? or somewhere in the west (arizona/vegas/anaheim) that’s a direct flight to Calgary) That’s where the D space will come from.

    There was a recent article by ..somebody.? (was it seravelli?) noting/suggesting that… there is nothing that says JP cannot become an oiler again. The TSN radio guys seem adamant against this, but, .. I don’t see it that way. Time passes, things heal, .. I’d say it’s 50/50 that JP is back in the oilers line up in February.

    Tonight’s game… will be a very hard test for our bottom 9. We’ve actually had good games against pittsburg, but Murray killed us. I have a hunch Smith takes the net… because he brings and incites a certain battle level in the troops. Then Koski gets the next bunch.

  24. drglen says:

    McSorley33:
    So far this season, the forwards are flat or worse:
    ***************************************************************************************************************
    Truth.

    This organization needs –a lot– more quality forward prospects in the system.

    in a cap world, you have to draft them.

    I am hoping Benson and Marody had a bit of a hangover from being relatively early
    cuts from the big club.Maybe they will turn it on in Nov and Dec.

    I mean Marody is about to turn 23 – if not now – when?

    Strongly suspect ( hope I am wrong ) that the org. has made the call on Gambardella and Marody not having the wheels for the show.

    Cooper Marody was taken in the 6th round of the draft for a reason and traded by the Flyers.

    Played at U of Michigan with Kyle Connor and is nearly the exact same age.

    Personally, I don’t think the oilers will ever play Marody.

  25. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I often have to remind myself I wanted Bennett over Draisaitl & Puljujarvi over Tkachuk.

    and Nichushkin over Nurse.

    Good thing I just get mad in comment sections.

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    who: I don’t think Holland is going to sacrifice the future to make a playoff push this year.

    I agree. Holland is building for the long term here, so any acquisition will likely have a couple of years of team control.

    who: I do think he would be willing to trade a young dman for a young forward. I see Benning, Jones and Lagesson as the most likely trade chips.

    I think he’s going over to Europe to have one last stab at reconciliation before pulling the trigger on a deal. I’m not saying the deal will involve Jesse, but he won’t have to make a trade at all if he can convince him to return.

    Benning and Manning are the most obvious candidates for trade… I doubt Benning will be moved before Larsson returns though.

  27. Pretendergast says:

    leeinvan:
    The farm team is really struggling, not sure why. The roster is an up-grade from last season but they just can’t seem to get it going.

    I really thought they would be crushing it, I know its early but sooner or later the team needs to get going. Benson and Marody don’t seem to have the same fire they did last year. Benson went down early, maybe he is struggling with that after a season that should have given him a bit more rope.

    It’s mostly that Starrett went down and so a good chunk of their dcore and goalie corps is young and unproven. They just need reps, they’re dominating games then give up a chance or two and let it get away from them. Plus powerplay isn’t firing yet as LT stated.

    Last years team was below average then spiked later with a long win streak, It’ll even out.

  28. Jethro Tull says:

    ArmchairGM: I agree. Holland is building for the long term here, so any acquisition will likely have a couple of years of team control.

    I think he’s going over to Europe to have one last stab at reconciliation before pulling the trigger on a deal. I’m not saying the deal will involve Jesse, but he won’t have to make a trade at all if he can convince him to return.

    Benning and Manning are the most obvious candidates for trade… I doubt Benning will be moved before Larsson returns though.

    Ken is building a team the only way he knows how. Just like Pete. And just like MacT. And just like those guys, Ken doesn’t seem to know what he’s got. Still, that Lucic trade eh? Amirite?

  29. jm363561 says:

    Interesting points being made on a crucial issue. Sad to say I am not high, and never have been, on any of Yamo and, in particular, Benson or Marody. I am also not sold on Bouchard. As a slightly less partisan observer in yesterday’s exchange between HH and OP, it seemed quite clear to me that Vancouver has demonstrably better prospects.

    I did not see Bear coming, but Jones and Lagesson look good to me. A trade of one of these guys or Benning (or a JP deal) seems one of the few options to strengthen the bottom nine. Fingers crossed for Joachim Nygard.

    P.S. They played well at Columbus but Nuge, JJ and Sam seems a really weird second line. More fingers to cross.

  30. Nit64 says:

    drglen: Personally, I don’t think the oilers will ever play Marody.

    ~ In past form when he does he’ll score against us ~

  31. Oilman99 says:

    PennersPancakes: You’re right in the sense hed fit in with the Oilers bottom 6 right now… But that isnt a group of players anyone wants to be compared to. He could PK but couldnt do anything offensively in the NHL.

    The same Lander who had box cars of:

    Year – GP – G – A – P
    11-12 – 56 – 2 – 4 – 6
    12-13 – 11 – 0 – 1 – 1
    13-14 – 27 – 0 – 1 – 1
    14-15 – 38 – 6 – 14 – 20
    15-16 – 61 – 1 – 2 – 3
    16-17 – 22 – 1 – 3 – 4

    This is not a player I would pine over. I wish him the best of success but other than the half season in which Nelson gave him time with Hall he couldnt produce enough offensively even for the fourth line.

    Lander’s lack of NHL speed was his undoing, hard worker, but a step behind resulted in no offence at the NHL level.

  32. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: I really don’t get it but, oh well, what can you do?

    Did you try writing a letter?

  33. Side says:

    Jethro Tull: Ken is building a team the only way he knows how. Just like Pete. And just like MacT. And just like those guys, Ken doesn’t seem to know what he’s got. Still, that Lucic trade eh? Amirite?

    Why do you think Ken doesn’t seem to know what he has?

  34. PennersPancakes says:

    jm363561: As a slightly less partisan observer in yesterday’s exchange between HH and OP, it seemed quite clear to me that Vancouver has demonstrably better prospects.

    How exactly is it quite clear if you dont mind me asking?

  35. Bag of Pucks says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I often have to remind myself I wanted Bennett over Draisaitl & Puljujarvi over Tkachuk.

    and Nichushkin over Nurse.

    Good thing I just get mad in comment sections.

    Not your fault. There’s a slavish devotion to consensus rankings in the hockey world.

    MacT drafted for need with Drai. Knew the team absolutely had to have that prototypical big playmaking C. Credit where it’s due. Probably the best decision he made as Oiler GM going against the consensus with that pick.

  36. slopitch says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I often have to remind myself I wanted Bennett over Draisaitl & Puljujarvi over Tkachuk.

    and Nichushkin over Nurse.

    Good thing I just get mad in comment sections.

    Ha. One of the things that’s nice about stating opinions publicly is that it makes you think more before hitting send. Easy to be wrong on prospects 🙂 I had Drai over Bennett and JP over Tkachuk. Win some lose some.

  37. drglen says:

    ArmchairGM:

    Benning and Manning are the most obvious candidates for trade… I doubt Benning will be moved before Larsson returns though.

    I don’t think Benning gets traded. He’s the perfect 6-7. what’s his +-? It is telling though that they absolutely will not play him above 3rd pair.

    If there’s a mid-season trade, with value coming back… it will be Adam Larsson imo. He tries to deal Larsson before touching any D prospects.

  38. Nit64 says:

    jm363561: As a slightly less partisan observer in yesterday’s exchange between HH and OP, it seemed quite clear to me that Vancouver has demonstrably better prospects.

    Context matters. When he who should not be named is talking up what his team of the minute has on the come he does not get to count every day players even if they are Calder candidates.

  39. McNuge93 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I often have to remind myself I wanted Bennett over Draisaitl & Puljujarvi over Tkachuk.

    and Nichushkin over Nurse.

    Good thing I just get mad in comment sections.

    Just imagine if Columbus had drafted Puljujarvi. We would have the best top six in the league.

  40. digger50 says:

    A popular opinion “the Oilers are a couple seasons away from competing “
    “We are not a playoff team this year anyway” “Holland inherited a horrible mess”

    Holland inherited probably the biggest opportunity to a Stanley Cip. Half the team is bad. But half the team is good to unbelievably great. Holland inherited opportunity knocking on the door.

    The top half of the roster has demonstrated they are not just a playoff group, but can take over games against the best. Again, opportunity knocking.

    Waiting two years? So many things can happen (see Winnipeg) or so many others that dropped unexpectedly from contender to borderline playoffs. Never bank on two years down the road, the NHL moves quickly.

    We are presently not waiting to gather up some difference makers. We have more than half the team built. We are only looking for two or three above average bottom six players. Maybe one second liner, two third liners. These guys can be had.

    Why on earth would you put your team on hold or under development waiting on finding a few above average players? Craziness. Get busy Ken.

  41. Reja says:

    Pretendergast: It’s mostly that Starrett went down and so a good chunk of their dcore and goalie corps is young and unproven. They just need reps, they’re dominating games then give up a chance or two and let it get away from them. Plus powerplay isn’t firing yet as LT stated.

    Last years team was below average then spiked later with a long win streak, It’ll even out.

    Bakersfield caught a Dose of Talbotitis it’s airborne and Demoralizes everyone on the team. No one is immune very hard to treat.

  42. Harpers Hair says:

    Nit64: Context matters. When he who should not be named is talking up what his team of the minute has on the come he does not get to count every day players even if they are Calder candidates.

    Pronman ranks players that didn’t play 25 games last season and fewer than 50 games overall as a prospect.
    Your mileage may vary.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    The thing with consensus rankings is theoretically it should be a better system, but it relies on this utopian belief that all will share data equally and nobody will try to influence the competition in the wrong direction to gain competitive advantage.

    Crowdsourcing works in large numbers but 200 amateur scouts OR 30 NHL Head Scouts is not a large number from a consensus data pov.

    The greatest weakness of consensus draft rankings is the reality of group power dynamics. There’s going to be a handful of highly influential scouts that are going to have a disproportionate influence in this process. Some people lead. Most follow. That is human nature.

    Where this really plays out is the selection process. A scout finds a player he’s convinced is the next Jamie Benn and wants to take him in the 2nd round. The rest of the scouting staff and GM look at the consensus rankings and he’s not even on the board. How do you think that plays out 9 times out of 10? Never underestimate the power of instinct and fear in human decision logic. Humans are inclined to be risk averse even when the reward seems probable.

    Pick the best player, and by best player, I mean the one your scouting staff has highest on its board. Eff the consensus rankings and the GM who wants to pick Yakupov.

    Trust your people and your process. If not, why do you have them?

    And focus your energies on building and then iterating a better mousetrap to beat the competition instead of being guided by them.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    drglen: I don’t think Benning gets traded.He’s the perfect 6-7.what’s his +-? It is telling though that they absolutely will not play him above 3rd pair.

    If there’s a mid-season trade, with value coming back… it will be Adam Larsson imo. He tries to deal Larsson before touching any D prospects.

    I disagree. First, Benning isn’t a “perfect 6-7” defenseman, he’s more than that and he’s proven that over and over throughout his career. Second, he has played above 3rd pairing in his career, and his numbers are sparkling. Tippett has only played him about 30 minutes above 3rd pair this season, this deployment tells me that he’s not appreciated / trusted by the coaching staff therefore the most expendable of the RHD.

    I just don’t see them trading Larsson at all this season. He didn’t play very well the last two years so he probably doesn’t have much value anyhow, meaning any trade will return less value than Larsson can potentially bring to the club. And if it looks like we’re going to the playoffs, Larsson is about the last guy you trade.

  45. Ryan says:

    digger50:
    A popular opinion “the Oilers are a couple seasons away from competing “
    “We are not a playoff team this year anyway” “Holland inherited a horrible mess”

    Holland inherited probably the biggest opportunity to a Stanley Cip. Half the team is bad. But half the team is good to unbelievably great.Holland inherited opportunity knocking on the door.

    The top half of the roster has demonstrated they are not just a playoff group, but can take over games against the best. Again, opportunity knocking.

    Waiting two years? So many things can happen (see Winnipeg) or so many others that dropped unexpectedly from contender to borderline playoffs. Never bank on two years down the road, the NHL moves quickly.

    We are presently not waiting to gather up some difference makers. We have more than half the team built. We are only looking for two or three above average bottom six players. Maybe one second liner, two third liners. These guys can be had.

    Why on earth would you put your team on hold or under development waiting on finding a few above average players? Craziness. Get busy Ken.

    This is a good post.

    I think Neal and Bear change the equation enough that Holland has to do something to acquire a few pieces.

    Neal’s been brilliant, but at his age he could turn into a pumpkin next season or the season after.

    With Bear’s emergence and a healthy Larsson soon, we’ll at least have an adequate blue line.

    Do something Ken.

  46. doctoreye says:

    drglen,

    Larsen plus JP plus Chiasson for Hall

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    digger50,

    The team is not as good as you describe. The Top 6 is two stellar talents, a good but aging scorer, an underwhelming 1OV headed to UFA next year and a couple pretenders to Top 6 status.

    On the backend, there’s no dominant PP driver OR shutdown stud.

    Goalie is over the hill and yet to be established.

    This team drafted poorly for 10+ years. Depth is still a distant bell.

  48. ashley says:

    Ryan: This is a good post.

    I think Neal and Bear change the equation enough that Holland has to do something to acquire a few pieces.

    Neal’s been brilliant, but at his age he could turn into a pumpkin next season or the season after.

    With Bear’s emergence and a healthy Larsson soon, we’ll at least have an adequate blue line.

    Do something Ken.

    I don’t think Neal has been that good. Statistically he looks brilliant, but he is really not that good. I can see why the Flames wanted to move on.

    He’s been Johnny on the spot a few times this year and some of his shots have had eyes. Still, scoring is a useful skill and he does shoot well and seems to position well on the power play.

    He is terrible at defending though (especially reading the play to where the danger is imminent) and his transitions/decision making are atrocious. Part of that is lack of foot speed.

    I think well rounded players are better use of ice time than specialists, but no matter what Neal did this year, this trade was going to be a win for us. So his success in his specialty has been gravy.

    Also since we don’t have many NHL players on the roster, at least he is one, even if it is on the lower end. I can see why Calgary’s deep roster didn’t have room for him. I just don’t understand how they can include Lucic on that roster with so much available talent in the PB and on the farm.

  49. Derek says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I often have to remind myself I wanted Bennett over Draisaitl & Puljujarvi over Tkachuk.

    and Nichushkin over Nurse.

    Good thing I just get mad in comment sections.

    I suffer from the same affliction but I wanted Voracek over Gagner so I still feel entitled to my (shitty) opinions.

  50. pts2pndr says:

    digger50:
    A popular opinion “the Oilers are a couple seasons away from competing “
    “We are not a playoff team this year anyway” “Holland inherited a horrible mess”

    Holland inherited probably the biggest opportunity to a Stanley Cip. Half the team is bad. But half the team is good to unbelievably great.Holland inherited opportunity knocking on the door.

    The top half of the roster has demonstrated they are not just a playoff group, but can take over games against the best. Again, opportunity knocking.

    Waiting two years? So many things can happen (see Winnipeg) or so many others that dropped unexpectedly from contender to borderline playoffs. Never bank on two years down the road, the NHL moves quickly.

    We are presently not waiting to gather up some difference makers. We have more than half the team built. We are only looking for two or three above average bottom six players. Maybe one second liner, two third liners. These guys can be had.

    Why on earth would you put your team on hold or under development waiting on finding a few above average players? Craziness. Get busy Ken.

    You could look at this from a factual point of view in that since Holland has taken the reins he has replaced Lucic with Neal. He has brought Persson over from Sweden and Bear up from the farm solidifying our right side D while allowing our young D to get more experience at the pro level. He has brought in players who have drastically improved the penalty kill. He has shored up the goal tending and improved overall team speed. He has added a coach that puts players in positions to succeed and he has done all of this in a short period of time with limited assets and little cap room to work with. Approaching the trade deadline if all his prior work has the team in a playoff hunt he can make a move to solidify the current group. He has done all of this without bleeding assets or mortgaging the future. In my opinion job well done.👍

  51. Nit64 says:

    jm363561: As a slightly less partisan observer in yesterday’s exchange between HH and OP, it seemed quite clear to me that Vancouver has demonstrably better prospects.

    If they were strictly speaking about prospects you’d be right. But context matters. HH was wrong last night:

    HH: The current roster and the farm system are easily better.

    OP: Pronman had the Canucks prospects overall ranked 4-5 places higher than the Oilers, however, their 1st and 3rd ranked prospects are full time NHL player and I’m quite confident that if you remove them (as they should be as they are contributing to the current roster), the Oilers prospects would rank ahead.

    Always watch the goalposts when HH talks. They move faster than his lips.

  52. Nit64 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I often have to remind myself I wanted Bennett over Draisaitl & Puljujarvi over Tkachuk.

    and Nichushkin over Nurse.

    Good thing I just get mad in comment sections.

    Room would empty in a hurry if everyone who wanted to send Draisaitl+ away for Subban had to leave.

  53. pts2pndr says:

    ashley: I don’t think Neal has been that good.Statistically he looks brilliant, but he is really not that good.I can see why the Flames wanted to move on.

    He’s been Johnny on the spot a few times this year and some of his shots have had eyes.Still, scoring is a useful skill and he does shoot well and seems to position well on the power play.

    He is terrible at defending though (especially reading the play to where the danger is imminent) and his transitions/decision making are atrocious.Part of that is lack of foot speed.

    I think well rounded players are better use of ice time than specialists, but no matter what Neal didthis year, this trade was going to be a win for us.So his success in his specialty has been gravy.

    Also since we don’t have many NHL players on the roster, at least he is one, even if it is on the lower end.I can see why Calgary’s deep roster didn’t have room for him.I just don’t understand how they can include Lucic on that roster with so much available talent in the PB and on the farm.

    There are so many little things that he does that makes whatever line he on more successful that you obviously don’t see.

  54. Munny says:

    digger50: Why on earth would you put your team on hold or under development waiting on finding a few above average players?

    The Cap.

    Good post, though.

  55. Munny says:

    Bag of Pucks: The thing with consensus rankings is…

    …that “consensus” is a misnomer. What we get is an average of different pundits and scouts opinions. Consensus infers agreement, unity. There is very little of that sometimes all the way up to first overall.

  56. drglen says:

    ArmchairGM: I disagree. First, Benning isn’t a “perfect 6-7” defenseman, he’s more than that and he’s proven that over and over throughout his career. Second, he has played above 3rd pairing in his career, and his numbers are sparkling. Tippett has only played him about 30 minutes above 3rd pair this season, this deployment tells me that he’s not appreciated / trusted by the coaching staff therefore the most expendable of the RHD.

    I just don’t see them trading Larsson at all this season. He didn’t play very well the last two years so he probably doesn’t have much value anyhow, meaning any trade will return less value than Larsson can potentially bring to the club. And if it looks like we’re going to the playoffs, Larsson is about the last guy you trade.

    maybe. Larsson will have to prove again that he really is top pair or top 4 in our lineup. .. I think he is, and will, but I also think other teams in need will think he is, and be willing to trade value for value. Do we have enough D depth, for this year, without him? I believe we do. (ha until the next 3 game losing streak..)

    Benning, if I’m reading it right is 2 million? That’s a bit high but I think he would sign for same or a little less. Coach trusts benning at 3rd pair, not higher. agree Nurse, Klef, Bear now, Perrson?, .. Jones, Bouch.. these guys will need line up spots and I think all project as top 4.. I totally agree Larsson is the better D man, but I also think you can survive the loss and get good value in return, and fairly quickly. Benning is not worth trading in terms of what’s coming back, and a really solid known commodity.

    I think I’ll need to keep a close eye on Larrson when he returns, because since he was in the Hall trade, I tend to overevaluate what he contributes. Let’s see… is he really removing guys from the puck, is he really making passes, is he really covering guys and preventing spaces and passing lanes, . is he getting beat and losing his man?

  57. Dipsy Doodle Dandy says:

    Off the topic of our bottom six let’s talk about one of our favorite players……Taylor Hall. Do you think New Jersey would trade Taylor Hall to Calgary for Johnny Gaudreau? Both players back to their birthplace. If NJ can’t sign Hall I can’t see them not getting anything for him. Calgary would have to be able to sign him before they would pull the trigger. The Flames fans would forgive Treliving for the Lucic deal. Just think of the battle of Alberta then……Hall vs. McDavid. What do you guys think?

  58. jm363561 says:

    PennersPancakes: How exactly is it quite clear if you dont mind me asking?

    “Francis Perron 1.33 PPG
    Kole Lind: 1.13 PPG
    Olli Juolevi 0.63 PPG
    Brogan Rafferty 0.63PPG
    Kyler Yamamoto 0.67 PPG
    Tyler Benson 0.67 PPG
    Cooper Marody 0.56 PPG
    Evan Bouchard 0.44 PPPG
    Not only are the Canucks prospects killing the Oilers prospects but the Comets are 8-0-0 and the Condors are 3-5-1
    The Condors have scored 23 goals in 9 games.
    The Comets have scored 39 goals in 8 games.”

    + “Jake Virtanen, Tanner Pearson, Jay Beagle, Josh Leivo, Adam Gaudette and Tim Schaller are all better than ANY Oiler bottom six forward.” Ok, not prospects.

    It demonstrated it quite clearly to me anyway.

  59. russ99 says:

    @Edmonton Oilers

    “Our guys have done a nice job of buying into the structure of how we want to play & bringing our goals against down.”

    Coach Tipp speaks ahead of tomorrow’s #Oilers vs. Pens matchup

    1:17pm · 1 Nov 2019

    Like the first year under McLellan, this is what this season is all about.

  60. pts2pndr says:

    PennersPancakes: You’re right in the sense hed fit in with the Oilers bottom 6 right now… But that isnt a group of players anyone wants to be compared to. He could PK but couldnt do anything offensively in the NHL.

    The same Lander who had box cars of:

    Year – GP – G – A – P
    11-12 – 56 – 2 – 4 – 6
    12-13 – 11 – 0 – 1 – 1
    13-14 – 27 – 0 – 1 – 1
    14-15 – 38 – 6 – 14 – 20
    15-16 – 61 – 1 – 2 – 3
    16-17 – 22 – 1 – 3 – 4

    This is not a player I would pine over. I wish him the best of success but other than the half season in which Nelson gave him time with Hall he couldnt produce enough offensively even for the fourth line.

    Lander was a very good penalty killer and face off man. He worked extremely well with Letestu and the penalty kill was noticeably worse after his departure . There is more to hockey than scoring which holds particularly true for bottom six players.

  61. slopitch says:

    McNuge93: Just imagine if Columbus had drafted Puljujarvi. We would have the best top six in the league.

    Ya and not traded for Reinhart. Or traded Hall. 😛 le sigh

  62. finn_fann says:

    drglen,

    Just think if we carry Bear, Larsson and rotate Benning and Persson as our RHD? That looks like real depth to me. If one of those guys goes down, we still have an NHL level D corps. Take Larsson away and suddenly you’reone injury away from having to break in yet another rookie D. Imagine if Bear goes down while Larsson is still out – what does our D look like then?

    I know there’s a glaring weakness with the bottom 6, but taking away our defebsive depth just perpetuates the problem, especially when there are reasonable prospects in the AHL who should be able to start breaking into bottom 6 roles after christmas, or next year at the latest.

    Plus, with Larsson’s injury history and down year last year, I think you’d be trading him for 10 cents on the dollar, not to mention that defensive D are easy to under-value to start with.

  63. Reja says:

    ashley: I don’t think Neal has been that good.Statistically he looks brilliant, but he is really not that good.I can see why the Flames wanted to move on.

    He’s been Johnny on the spot a few times this year and some of his shots have had eyes.Still, scoring is a useful skill and he does shoot well and seems to position well on the power play.

    He is terrible at defending though (especially reading the play to where the danger is imminent) and his transitions/decision making are atrocious.Part of that is lack of foot speed.

    I think well rounded players are better use of ice time than specialists, but no matter what Neal didthis year, this trade was going to be a win for us.So his success in his specialty has been gravy.

    Also since we don’t have many NHL players on the roster, at least he is one, even if it is on the lower end.I can see why Calgary’s deep roster didn’t have room for him.I just don’t understand how they can include Lucic on that roster with so much available talent in the PB and on the farm.

    Wow. Hardest thing to do in hockey is score as of this moment James The Real Deal Neal is the comeback player of the year and your bashing him.

  64. Cassandra says:

    russ99:
    @Edmonton Oilers

    “Our guys have done a nice job of buying into the structure of how we want to play & bringing our goals against down.”

    Coach Tipp speaks ahead of tomorrow’s #Oilers vs. Pens matchup

    1:17pm · 1 Nov 2019

    Like the first year under McLellan, this is what this season is all about.

    This confuses cause and effect. As always.

  65. PennersPancakes says:

    jm363561: The Condors have scored 23 goals in 9 games.
    The Comets have scored 39 goals in 8 games.”

    8 game sample size hey?

    James Neal confirmed better than Blake Wheeler. 13 vs 7 points right? Kind of ignoring sample size issues, ages, and also support?

    Utica has some overage tweeners/NHLers really helping drive play such as Boucher, Baertischi, and Goldobin which happen to be their top 3 players… If your excuse me Ill remain unconvinced. Im not trashing Vancouvers prospects but come on man.

  66. Cassandra says:

    ashley: I don’t think Neal has been that good.Statistically he looks brilliant, but he is really not that good.I can see why the Flames wanted to move on.

    He’s been Johnny on the spot a few times this year and some of his shots have had eyes.Still, scoring is a useful skill and he does shoot well and seems to position well on the power play.

    He is terrible at defending though (especially reading the play to where the danger is imminent) and his transitions/decision making are atrocious.Part of that is lack of foot speed.

    I think well rounded players are better use of ice time than specialists, but no matter what Neal didthis year, this trade was going to be a win for us.So his success in his specialty has been gravy.

    Also since we don’t have many NHL players on the roster, at least he is one, even if it is on the lower end.I can see why Calgary’s deep roster didn’t have room for him.I just don’t understand how they can include Lucic on that roster with so much available talent in the PB and on the farm.

    Excellent post. A bold general manager would be looking to trade Neal as soon as he could. It remains a terrible contract. Nowhere near as terrible as Lucic’ contract, but terrible nonetheless.

    I wonder if the Oilers could get a 7th round pick for Neal? That would truly be planning for the future.

  67. Side says:

    jm363561: “Francis Perron 1.33 PPG
    Kole Lind: 1.13 PPG
    Olli Juolevi 0.63 PPG
    Brogan Rafferty 0.63PPG
    Kyler Yamamoto 0.67 PPG
    Tyler Benson 0.67 PPG
    Cooper Marody 0.56 PPG
    Evan Bouchard 0.44 PPPG
    Not only are the Canucks prospects killing the Oilers prospects but the Comets are 8-0-0 and the Condors are 3-5-1
    The Condors have scored 23 goals in 9 games.
    The Comets have scored 39 goals in 8 games.”

    + “Jake Virtanen, Tanner Pearson, Jay Beagle, Josh Leivo, Adam Gaudette and Tim Schaller are all better than ANY Oiler bottom six forward.” Ok, not prospects.

    It demonstrated it quite clearly to me anyway.

    This is also a small sample size, doesn’t include ages or draft+ years, etc.

    I’m not sure how anyone could look at an 8 or 9 game sample size and declare one way or the other which prospects are better.

  68. meanashell11 says:

    pts2pndr: You could look at this from a factual point of view in that since Holland has taken the reins he has replaced Lucic with Neal. He has brought Persson over from Sweden and Bear up from the farm solidifying our right side D while allowing our young D to get more experience at the pro level. He has brought in players who have drastically improved the penalty kill. He has shored up the goal tending and improved overall team speed. He has added a coach that puts players in positions to succeed and he has done all of this in a short period of time with limited assets and little cap room to work with. Approaching the trade deadline if all his prior work has the team in a playoff hunt he can make a move to solidify the current group. He has done all of this without bleeding assets or mortgaging the future. In my opinion job well done.

    This sums up my thoughts.

  69. drglen says:

    Dipsy Doodle Dandy:
    Off the topic of our bottom six let’s talk about one of our favorite players……Taylor Hall. Do you think New Jersey would trade Taylor Hall to Calgary for Johnny Gaudreau? Both players back to their birthplace. If NJ can’t sign Hall I can’t see them not getting anything for him. Calgary would have to be able to sign him before they would pull the trigger. The Flames fans would forgive Treliving for the Lucic deal. Just think of the battle of Alberta then……Hall vs. McDavid. What do you guys think?

    For Canadian markets, I was thinking Calgary or Montreal.. .. but I don’t think they would trade a bonifide star player for another at basically the same position. It would have to be a ‘glut’ or person who has not always lived up to expections. In Montreal, for me that would be Carey Price. Calgary, Would have to give up Rittich and a D like Hanafin. ? imo

    Maybe Hall goes to Seattle and becomes King!

  70. Reja says:

    Cassandra: Excellent post.A bold general manager would be looking to trade Neal as soon as he could.It remains a terrible contract.Nowhere near as terrible as Lucic’ contract, but terrible nonetheless.

    I wonder if the Oilers could get a 7th round pick for Neal? That would truly be planning for the future.

    That was a goal scorers goal Neal potted against Columbus I’m loving Neal he sure looks like a leader on the bench to me. If he pots 60-65 combined in the next 2 years I could easily see Seattle taking him for veteran leadership and cap floor.

  71. Material Elvis says:

    Reja: That was a goal scorers goal Neal potted against Columbus I’m loving Neal he sure looks like a leader on the bench to me. If he pots 60-65 combined in the next 2 years I could easily see Seattle taking him for veteran leadership and cap floor.

    Seattle will not take Neal.

  72. Ryan says:

    ashley: I don’t think Neal has been that good.Statistically he looks brilliant, but he is really not that good.I can see why the Flames wanted to move on.

    He’s been Johnny on the spot a few times this year and some of his shots have had eyes.Still, scoring is a useful skill and he does shoot well and seems to position well on the power play.

    He is terrible at defending though (especially reading the play to where the danger is imminent) and his transitions/decision making are atrocious.Part of that is lack of foot speed.

    I think well rounded players are better use of ice time than specialists, but no matter what Neal didthis year, this trade was going to be a win for us.So his success in his specialty has been gravy.

    Also since we don’t have many NHL players on the roster, at least he is one, even if it is on the lower end.I can see why Calgary’s deep roster didn’t have room for him.I just don’t understand how they can include Lucic on that roster with so much available talent in the PB and on the farm.

    I don’t disagree with you. When I said he’s been brilliant, I meant strictly in terms of results.

    11 goals in 14 games is brilliant. It’s not sustainable or projectable, but that’s a different issue.

    My point was more about making hay when the sun shines than anything else. James Neal is not a complete or perfect player. His contract is not great and will be an albatross at some point in the near future. Right now today, it isn’t.

    However, there are 3 more years left on the contract at $5.75 m. He’s 32 years old and not an elite skater.

    At some time in the future, we’re going to have to face the music on that contract.

    The fact that we’re not facing the music on his contract right now today presents an opportunity.

  73. jeetz says:

    BONE207: This would mean the vaunted “3-1” trade. The minor league pieces & unproven defensive prospects are not going to bring in any appreciable value on their own. I have an extra box of Halloween chocolates I could add to the deal.

    I think Larsson as the main piece may be the answer. Also Winnipeg looks like a great trade partner

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    leeinvan:
    The farm team is really struggling, not sure why. The roster is an up-grade from last season but they just can’t seem to get it going.

    I really thought they would be crushing it, I know its early but sooner or later the team needs to get going. Benson and Marody don’t seem to have the same fire they did last year. Benson went down early, maybe he is struggling with that after a season that should have given him a bit more rope.

    The main issue is goaltending – Starrett has been out since, I believe, the 2nd game and, while Skinner and Wells are OK prospects, they are second year pros and, as we know, goalie’s often take a while.

    Also, lets not forget, the upgrade to the roster is really 4 rookie pros in Bouchard, Samorukov, McLeod and Maksimov – yes the infusion of talent was massive but its a big jump from the CHL to the AHL.

    Also, for the most part, from what I’ve watched (which is quite a bit), they are often the MUCH better team in games early – dominating possession an scoring chances in the first and then a mistake or a couple of chances against and the puck is in the net and they sag.

    I’m not too concerned – its been 8 games and this team will improve when they get Starrett back and as the rookies get used to the pro game

  75. Reja says:

    Material Elvis: Seattle will not take Neal.

    Oh okay since you can predict the future who do they take on the Oilers? You do realize they have to hit the cap floor and several teams will have the opportunity with butter to rid them selves of a contract.

  76. YKOil says:

    I remain firmly in the camp that thinks Holland has done a pretty decent job this year – regardless of whether or not the team falls back later this year. When the biggest ‘mistake’ on the year is the Chiasson contract… that is pretty small beans.

    In regards to whether or not we need to pick something up I mostly disagree. If something falls into our lap, sure, but otherwise the key is to put the team in the position to be opportunistic in approach going forward.

    I don’t want this team to be in the position that it has to jump through hoops to make a Hall trade-or-signing work. I want this team to be in the position to pick Hall up and STILL do other things.

    That takes good, steady management. I think Holland has that capability and I think that is where we will end up.

  77. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lagesson was assigned to the Bake and Cave called up.Looks like Cave is precautionary as Sheahan is practicing this morning and centering the fourth line.

    Really disappointed they didn’t get Lagesson in a couple of games when Persson was hurt.

    Spelling Manning for a couple of those 7 games was the absolute perfect opportunity.

    I really don’t get it but, oh well, what can you do?

    Yep.

    23 year old William Lagesson played 2 hockey games in the month of October.

  78. russ99 says:

    Don’t want to spoil LT’s column tomorrow but I just added the brand new Oilers.com McDavid November schedule wallpaper to my desktop, and November looks tough, with the mini and long Pacific road swings.

    Looks to me .500 is best case, though the team could surprise us again this month.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen: I had thought about Toffoli, if he could be had for cheap ( not really) and for very low term.

    I’m actually wondering if there is any law that would prevent Holland from bringing back Burdosov? out of the K…

    Benning may be odd man out at some point but he’s been solid and this is where overripen comes in.. he’s not going to bring up jones and lagesson until we get an injury again.Won’t make any moves at all until the playoffs are close and we are close… we just have to get in..I think,.. Holland is waiting until february/march.. some contending or close to contending team will have a major defensive injury, or two… and he’ll be able to move Russell at that point.(i’d like to see his NTC for cities…. I think he’d go to Calgary?or somewhere in the west (arizona/vegas/anaheim) that’s a direct flight to Calgary) That’s where the D space will come from.

    There was a recent article by ..somebody.? (was it seravelli?) noting/suggesting that… there is nothing that says JP cannot become an oiler again. The TSN radio guys seem adamant against this, but, .. I don’t see it that way.Time passes, things heal, .. I’d say it’s 50/50 that JP is back in the oilers line up in February.

    Tonight’s game… will be a very hard test for our bottom 9.We’ve actually had good games against pittsburg, but Murray killed us. I have a hunch Smith takes the net… because he brings and incites a certain battle level in the troops. Then Koski gets the next bunch.

    Yes, there is no agreement between the NHL and KHL and Burdasov now has a KHL contract and cannot play in the NHL.

    Even if he could, would you be in favor of using the 49th contract spot on this guy? Did he really show enough in his two exhibition games (which really mean very little)?

    If Jesse is going to be in the Oilers lineup, it will be long before February – if he doesn’t sign by December 1, he’s ineligible to play in the NHL this season.

  80. Todd Macallan says:

    Ferland on IR with a concussion, especially concerning for him given his history.

  81. PennersPancakes says:

    OriginalPouzar: If Jesse is going to be in the Oilers lineup, it will be long before February – if he doesn’t sign by December 1, he’s ineligible to play in the NHL this season.

    Can Jesse sign before December 1st and use an out clause/Oilers loan him to Liiga to have him remain eligible for NHL action or does he need to be playing actual NHL games? Could kick the can down the road a little bit until Holland knows more about the the team and the player if thats possible.

  82. Nit64 says:

    LMHF#1:
    LT – in case you hadn’t seen this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-the-expos-have-won-the-1994-world-series/?addata=espn:mlb:teams

    TLDR – my guys win 1994.

    The most likely part of all of those scenarios is that we would have seen an Expos-Braves series for the NL Pennant. Incroyable.

  83. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, there is no agreement between the NHL and KHL and Burdasov now has a KHL contract and cannot play in the NHL.

    Even if he could, would you be in favor of using the 49th contract spot on this guy? Did he really show enough in his two exhibition games (which really mean very little)?

    If Jesse is going to be in the Oilers lineup, it will be long before February – if he doesn’t sign by December 1, he’s ineligible to play in the NHL this season.

    ok didn’t realize that Dec 1 thing with Jesse. In that case… yes far more likely he spends the year in finland.

    At least there was a demonstrated shot threat from Burdasov. If it was cheap enough, a 1 year 2-way deal, and room, I think I would. Jurco, has not worked out thus far. The problem was we didn’t see his D under NHL pressure.. so if he was minus 7 after 4 games… we’d need an out. But assuming that NHL ready mid line up NHL are not going to be available from within the league, it would be a worthwhile gamble for points from bottom 6. …. .. having said that.. we are in first place! so really nobody needs to do anything.

  84. knighttown says:

    Jesse Puljujarvi for Andreas Athanasiou; who says no.

    AA makes 3M this year and is then an RFA. He’s 25.

    Scored 30 last year but has zero so far. Absolutely blazing speed.

  85. godot10 says:

    Trading Larsson is a bad idea. I don’t want to see Russell on the right side ever again. Larsson is critical to breaking in a slew of left had D over the next few years (Jones, Lagesson, Broberg, Samourukov).

    Trade Benning next summer.

  86. ArmchairGM says:

    jm363561: “Francis Perron 1.33 PPG
    Kole Lind: 1.13 PPG
    Olli Juolevi 0.63 PPG
    Brogan Rafferty 0.63PPG
    Kyler Yamamoto 0.67 PPG
    Tyler Benson 0.67 PPG
    Cooper Marody 0.56 PPG
    Evan Bouchard 0.44 PPPG
    Not only are the Canucks prospects killing the Oilers prospects but the Comets are 8-0-0 and the Condors are 3-5-1
    The Condors have scored 23 goals in 9 games.
    The Comets have scored 39 goals in 8 games.”

    + “Jake Virtanen, Tanner Pearson, Jay Beagle, Josh Leivo, Adam Gaudette and Tim Schaller are all better than ANY Oiler bottom six forward.” Ok, not prospects.

    It demonstrated it quite clearly to me anyway.

    I think I see why you aren’t an NHL GM. Basing your whole assessment of an entire prospect pool on just 8-9 games is INSANE.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    :
    Interesting points being made on a crucial issue. Sad to say I am not high, and never have been, on any of Yamo and, in particular, Benson or Marody. I am also not sold on Bouchard. As a slightly less partisan observer in yesterday’s exchange between HH and OP, it seemed quite clear to me that Vancouver has demonstrably better prospects.

    Podkolzin, Juolevi, Madden, Hoglander, DiPietro

    Broberg, Bouchard, Samorukov, Benson, Lavoie

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    Cassandra: Excellent post.A bold general manager would be looking to trade Neal as soon as he could.It remains a terrible contract.Nowhere near as terrible as Lucic’ contract, but terrible nonetheless.

    I wonder if the Oilers could get a 7th round pick for Neal? That would truly be planning for the future.

    I think they ride out the year and re-assess in the summer. If Holland has a line on some younger UFAs that can score AND skate, he just might try to trade Neal. It’s not something that’s going to happen mid-season though – other GM’s will need to see that he’s ‘back’ and not just on a 6 week hot streak.

  89. Reja says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Ferland on IR with a concussion, especially concerning for him given his history.

    I really like Ferland style of play but the only way he can be effective is crash and smash with his history of concussions was the reason I wouldn’t have gone more than 2 year contract at 4 Mil.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen: I don’t think Benning gets traded.He’s the perfect 6-7.what’s his +-? It is telling though that they absolutely will not play him above 3rd pair.

    If there’s a mid-season trade, with value coming back… it will be Adam Larsson imo.He tries to deal Larsson before touching any D prospects.

    Larsson for Kerfoot…….

  91. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: I think I see why you aren’t an NHL GM. Basing your whole assessment of an entire prospect pool on just 8-9 games is INSANE.

    Tyler Benson has like 3 times as many points as a pro and is only 7-8 months older. Kole Lind couldnt piss a drop as a 20 year old

  92. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: I think I see why you aren’t an NHL GM. Basing your whole assessment of an entire prospect pool on just 8-9 games is INSANE.

    Benson has 20 shots, some of em are bound to go in, Lind is scoring on 25% of his shots, weird how that’s sustainable for him… makes you think

  93. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes: 8 game sample size hey?

    James Neal confirmed better than Blake Wheeler. 13 vs 7 points right? Kind of ignoring sample size issues, ages, and also support?

    Utica has some overage tweeners/NHLers really helping drive play such as Boucher, Baertischi, and Goldobin which happen to be their top 3 players… If your excuse me Ill remain unconvinced. Im not trashing Vancouvers prospects but come on man.

    Pronman ranks Vancouver’s prospect pool 5th in the league and Edmonton’s 9th in his preseason rankings.

    However, Vancouver’s #1 (Hughes) and #3 (Demko) prospects are playing in the NHL and are set to officially graduate this year, they should no longer be considered prospects for the purposes of grading the Canucks farm system today.

    Edmonton’s top 12 prospects from that list remain outside the NHL. Ethan Bear (13), Nygard (19) and Persson (NR) are the only deletions from the Oilers’ farm system to date.

    Based on this, I’m confident that Corey Pronman would give the Oilers’ farm system the nod over the Canucks’.

    https://theathletic.com/1125088/2019/09/05/pronman-2019-20-nhl-farm-system-rankings/

  94. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes: Can Jesse sign before December 1st and use an out clause/Oilers loan him to Liiga to have him remain eligible for NHL action or does he need to be playing actual NHL games? Could kick the can down the road a little bit until Holland knows more about the the team and the player if thats possible.

    OP would know, but I think he’d have to go through waivers to be loaned to Liiga while under contract. If not, that’s an option for sure. Holland is going to Finland next weekend (I think), so we’ll see what happens.

  95. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Larsson for Kerfoot…….

    That is ugly. I would rather just hang on to him if that’s all we can get

  96. ArmchairGM says:

    knighttown:
    Jesse Puljujarvi for Andreas Athanasiou; who says no.

    AA makes 3M this year and is then an RFA. He’s 25.

    Scored 30 last year but has zero so far. Absolutely blazing speed.

    That 30 goal season is looking a little like a mirage, AA seems to be a 30-ish point guy in the NHL. Even his AHL numbers are pretty pedestrian…

    Still, I don’t think Detroit does this 1-for-1.

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10:
    Trading Larsson is a bad idea. I don’t want to see Russell on the right side ever again.Larsson is critical to breaking in a slew of left had D over the next few years (Jones, Lagesson, Broberg, Samourukov).

    Trade Benning next summer.

    I endorse this post.

  98. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: Benson has 20 shots, some of em are bound to go in, Lind is scoring on 25% of his shots, weird how that’s sustainable for him… makes you think

    LOL.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie with a goal and an assist and four shots in the first period.

    3-0 Halifax after 17 minutes.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3: Tyler Benson has like 3 times as many points as a pro and is only 7-8 months older. Kole Lind couldnt piss a drop as a 20 year old

    I wonder if Lind was injured last year?

    His history is good.

    Some of the other players on that list are funny though.

    Perron’s AHL history suggests he’s an AHler at best and not even a tweener, this year’s hot start notwithstanding.

    Only Lind and Juolevi are real NHL prospects from that list imo, most of those players are 22/23 without good 20-22 year old seasons.

    Dys have some good kids not in the NHL yet.

    I like Hoglander.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: OP would know, but I think he’d have to go through waivers to be loaned to Liiga while under contract. If not, that’s an option for sure. Holland is going to Finland next weekend (I think), so we’ll see what happens.

    Yeah, he’d have to clear waivers to be loaned to any league.

  102. PennersPancakes says:

    OriginalPouzar: Larsson for Kerfoot…….

    Toronto might be interested in Larsson because they dont have a true heavy minute muncher but why would they move Kerfoot who is their Kadri/3C replacement. They signed him to a 4 year contract ASAP, I think theyd be hard pressed to move him.

  103. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: That is ugly.I would rather just hang on to him if that’s all we can get

    A 25 year old 3C who is over 0.50pts/gm and under contract for 3 more years at 3.5 isn’t bad value for Larsson imo and I like Larsson.

    Don’t think TOR does it though I don’t think they have anyone to take that spot.

    They have mid-6 wingers falling out the asshole and would want to trade one of those.

  104. jeetz says:

    digger50:
    A popular opinion “the Oilers are a couple seasons away from competing “
    “We are not a playoff team this year anyway” “Holland inherited a horrible mess”

    Holland inherited probably the biggest opportunity to a Stanley Cip. Half the team is bad. But half the team is good to unbelievably great.Holland inherited opportunity knocking on the door.

    The top half of the roster has demonstrated they are not just a playoff group, but can take over games against the best. Again, opportunity knocking.

    Waiting two years? So many things can happen (see Winnipeg) or so many others that dropped unexpectedly from contender to borderline playoffs. Never bank on two years down the road, the NHL moves quickly.

    We are presently not waiting to gather up some difference makers. We have more than half the team built. We are only looking for two or three above average bottom six players. Maybe one second liner, two third liners. These guys can be had.

    Why on earth would you put your team on hold or under development waiting on finding a few above average players? Craziness. Get busy Ken.

    I think the biggest hindrance for the Oilers, is the salary cap. He (Holland) is avoiding giving a ufa a big payday to address a need and can’t take on a salary dump if it was the right player. In fact one could argue that without some major creativity, we couldn’t take on a player with more than a 2.5 million cap hit (space plus money going out)

    That is the mess Holland inherited.
    I agree Larsson is our biggest trading chip. We may have the depth to move him as a center piece of a bigger trade to get the right player or 2

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    DipsyDoodleDandy:
    Off the topic of our bottom six let’s talk about one of our favorite players……Taylor Hall. Do you think New Jersey would trade Taylor Hall to Calgary for Johnny Gaudreau? Both players back to their birthplace. If NJ can’t sign Hall I can’t see them not getting anything for him. Calgary would have to be able to sign him before they would pull the trigger. The Flames fans would forgive Treliving for the Lucic deal. Just think of the battle of Alberta then……Hall vs. McDavid. What do you guys think?

    The flames wouldn’t trade years of Gaudreau for a pending UFA Taylor Hall.

    Gaudreau is having a tough year, so far, but his contract is a huge value contract (even if one thinks he’s not a “playoff type player”.

    With that said, I would love for the flames to give up big assets and sign Hall to his retirement contract.

  106. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    somebody like that.

  107. McNuge93 says:

    Reja: I really like Ferland style of play but the only way he can be effective is crash and smash with his history of concussions was the reason I wouldn’t have gone more than 2 year contract at 4 Mil.

    Yes, that was a bad signing by the Canucks and they are going to regret it. He has done nothing since about midway last year. Hurricanes had a great playoff but he didn’t.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: A 25 year old 3C who is over 0.50pts/gm and under contract for 3 more years at 3.5 isn’t bad value for Larsson imo and I like Larsson.

    Don’t think TOR does it though I don’t think they have anyone to take that spot.

    They have mid-6 wingers falling out the asshole and would want to trade one of those.

    So roughly Ryan Strome for Larsson?
    I’m not a fan of Larsson type defensemen but even I value his tough as nails ability and how he would be able to grind down opponents over a 7 game series.
    Not saying he’d get a Hall type player but he should be able to bring a solid top 6 forward

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    jm: “Francis Perron 1.33 PPG
    Kole Lind: 1.13 PPG
    Olli Juolevi 0.63 PPG
    Brogan Rafferty 0.63PPG
    Kyler Yamamoto 0.67 PPG
    Tyler Benson 0.67 PPG
    Cooper Marody 0.56 PPG
    Evan Bouchard 0.44 PPPG
    Not only are the Canucks prospects killing the Oilers prospects but the Comets are 8-0-0 and the Condors are 3-5-1
    The Condors have scored 23 goals in 9 games.
    The Comets have scored 39 goals in 8 games.”

    + “Jake Virtanen, Tanner Pearson, Jay Beagle, Josh Leivo, Adam Gaudette and Tim Schaller are all better than ANY Oiler bottom six forward.” Ok, not prospects.

    It demonstrated it quite clearly to me anyway.

    1) An 8-game sample size means nothing

    2) Francis Persson turns 24 later this season and Brogan Rafferty is already 24

    3) Juolevi is a year older than Bouchard and has already played pro hockey for two season

    If we are going to allow an 8-game sample size and discount age of prospects completely and go stricly on PPG, well, I guess Brandon Davidson is “better” than Juolevi and Bouchard – who knew the flames had such a stacked prospect system.

    ——————–

    Citing a more balanced roster due to bottom 6 depth does not conclude the roster is better – its a factor when discussing but far from determinative.

    What was “demonstrated’ was elite ability to cherry-pick to fit a narrative.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ:
    @Edmonton Oilers

    “Our guys have done a nice job of buying into the structure of how we want to play & bringing our goals against down.”

    Coach Tipp speaks ahead of tomorrow’s #Oilers vs. Pens matchup

    1:17pm · 1 Nov 2019

    Like the first year under McLellan, this is what this season is all about.

    Coach T did state countless times that the main goal was to decrease goals against.

    So far its leading to wins.

  111. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: I endorse this post.

    + 1

  112. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I wonder if Lind was injured last year?

    His history is good.

    Some of the other players on that list are funny though.

    Perron’s AHL history suggests he’s an AHler at best and not even a tweener, this year’s hot start notwithstanding.

    Only Lind and Juolevi are real NHL prospects from that list imo, most of those players are 22/23 without good 20-22 year old seasons.

    Dys have some good kids not in the NHL yet.

    I like Hoglander.

    Both Lind and Jonah Gadjovich (who was injured last year) struggled to get minutes last season under Trent Cull.
    Canucks management read him the riot act this season and mandated he play the prospects and its paying off.

    Juolevi missed almost an entire season with a knee injury but has been very good this season.

    Agree on Hoglander but also don’t forget Michael DiPietro.
    3-0-0 in the AHL with a .940 save percentage.

    Jett Woo, a RHD playing for the Hitmen also shows lots of promise as does Tyler Madden a Centre at Northeastern with 5 goals in 6 games this season.

  113. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Well it’s a lot easier to put up points when you have 3 veterans putting up 1.4-1.8 ppg
    Like Goldobin Barschi and Boucher
    And then the question becomes how is Juolevis ppg that low
    This is his 3rd pro season and his ppg is less than last year on a team that has scored a ton this year

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes: Can Jesse sign before December 1st and use an out clause/Oilers loan him to Liiga to have him remain eligible for NHL action or does he need to be playing actual NHL games? Could kick the can down the road a little bit until Holland knows more about the the team and the player if thats possible.

    Yes, I think so.

    Persson was signed last year and loaned to the SHL and the NHL has an arrangement with Liiga similar to the SHL I believe.

    The player would need to be on the NHL roster at the trade deadline in order to be eligible for the playoffs.

    As an aside, the trade deadline isn’t actually a deadline for trades – trades can continue to be made after the deadline but the acquired player needs to be on the roster in order to be eligible to play for that team that year and in the playoffs.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    ToddMacallan:
    Ferland on IR with a concussion, especially concerning for him given his history.

    Shitty news but this was, unfortunately, no unforeseeable. Damn

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: So roughly Ryan Strome for Larsson?
    I’m not a fan of Larsson type defensemen but even I value his tough as nails ability and how he would be able to grind down opponents over a 7 game series.
    Not saying he’d get a Hall type player but he should be able to bring a solid top 6 forward

    I’m of the opinion that a quality 3C is more valuable that some top 6 forwards, especially when you have drivers in the top 6.

    He’s a step up from Strome.

    He’s a step up Eller too imo (offensively) who is one of the better 3Cs in the league.

  117. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Shitty news but this was, unfortunately, no unforeseeable. Damn

    Sucks
    Why is he fighting. I know he got hired to be a tough guy but his body is not going to let him do that

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Both Lind and Jonah Gadjovich (who was injured last year) struggled to get minutes last season under Trent Cull.
    Canucks management read him the riot act this season and mandated he play the prospects and its paying off.

    Juolevimissed almost an entire season with a knee injury but has been very good this season.

    Agree on Hoglander but also don’t forget Michael DiPietro.
    3-0-0 in the AHL with a .940 save percentage.

    Jett Woo, a RHD playing for the Hitmen also shows lots of promise as does Tyler Madden a Centre at Northeastern with 5 goals in 6 games this season.

    Thanks for that.

    I think the Dys best prospects are either in the NHL or still in the CHL or Euro leagues.

    Don’t know much about DiPetro or Woo but they look “solid” via a quick glance at their history.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I think so.

    Persson was signed last year and loaned to the SHL and the NHL has an arrangement with Liiga similar to the SHL I believe.

    The player would need to be on the NHL roster at the trade deadline in order to be eligible for the playoffs.

    As an aside, the trade deadline isn’t actually a deadline for trades – trades can continue to be made after the deadline but the acquired player needs to be on the roster in order to be eligible to play for that team that year and in the playoffs.

    Persson didn’t need to clear waivers.

    JP does.

  120. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Quality 3c is probably more valuable on the scoreboard at least in my opinion but the difference in price of contracts that they get clearly the GMs don’t agree
    Curious why you think he’s better than Strome. Strome had a hard time here but a happy Strome is a much better player than the guy we got. After his trade they put up similar numbers and Strome is putting up great numbers this season.
    Not trying to pin you down on this. Just curious. Kerfoot is outside of my sphere of knowledge

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    One thing the Dys know how to do is draft and develop goalies

  122. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) An 8-game sample size means nothing

    2) Francis Persson turns 24 later this season and Brogan Rafferty is already 24

    3) Juolevi is a year older than Bouchard and has already played pro hockey for two season

    If we are going to allow an 8-game sample size and discount age of prospects completely and go stricly on PPG, well, I guess Brandon Davidson is “better” than Juolevi and Bouchard – who knew the flames had such a stacked prospect system.

    ——————–

    Citing a more balanced roster due to bottom 6 depth does not conclude the roster is better – its a factor when discussing but far from determinative.

    What was “demonstrated’ was elite ability to cherry-pick to fit a narrative.

    Here’s another narrative for you.

    The Oilers have Conner McDavid, the league’s leading scorer in Draisaitl who like James Neal has a shooting percentage above 24%, and yet Vancouver is scoring 3.75 GPG while the Oilers are at 2.93.

    Vancouver’s bottom six has scored 37 points while the Oilers bottom six has scored 10.

    Vancouver’s D has scored 30 points, the Oilers D 24 points and Quinn Hughes was only moved to #1PP three games ago…so watch out.

    Now, without cherry picking, please explain how a balanced roster is inferior.

  123. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Well it’s a lot easier to put up points when you have 3 veterans putting up 1.4-1.8 ppg
    Like Goldobin Barschi and Boucher
    And then the question becomes how is Juolevis ppg that low
    This is his 3rd pro season and his ppg is less than last year on a team that has scored a ton this year

    He was injured last season after a promising start (13 points in 18 games) and required knee surgery.
    Still working his way back to full speed.

  124. Ryan says:

    knighttown:
    Jesse Puljujarvi for Andreas Athanasiou; who says no.

    AA makes 3M this year and is then an RFA. He’s 25.

    Scored 30 last year but has zero so far. Absolutely blazing speed.

    AA looked good last year.

    Not sure I wouldn’t go crazy listening to “Happy to see you” 100 times per Oilers game.

    I don’t know why Detroit would make that trade.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I think I see why you aren’t an NHL GM. Basing your whole assessment of an entire prospect pool on just 8-9 games is INSANE.

    Given it was an argument about prospects and age was completely disregarded, I’m not sure sanity was a goal.

  126. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan,

    Because he’s absolutely lost this year.
    Don’t think JP has that kind of value but AA looks terrible

  127. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: He was injured last season after a promising start (13 points in 18 games) and required knee surgery.
    Still working his way back to full speed.

    Tough sledding for Ferland your GM took a gamble. There’s a tear in my beer and “I’m cryin for you dear”

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: OP would know, but I think he’d have to go through waivers to be loaned to Liiga while under contract. If not, that’s an option for sure. Holland is going to Finland next weekend (I think), so we’ll see what happens.

    I don’t think he would.

    To be honest, I haven’t checked the CBA on this particular point but Joel Persson didn’t need waivers to be assigned to the SHL last year.

    Then again, Persson was waiver exempt and Jesse isn’t.

    Thinking this through, you may be right – let me look in to it.

  129. Reja says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ryan,

    Because he’s absolutely lost this year.
    Don’t think JP has that kind of value but AA looks terrible

    Needs a change of scenery there’s a deal to be had.

  130. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Given it was an argument about prospects and age was completely disregarded, I’m not sure sanity was a goal.

    Binning prospects by age is a serious logical flaw.
    Most good NHL players emerge early these days.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think he would.

    To be honest, I haven’t checked the CBA on this particular point but Joel Persson didn’t need waivers to be assigned to the SHL last year.

    Then again, Persson was waiver exempt and Jesse isn’t.

    Thinking this through, you may be right – let me look in to it.

    Actually, I think we are good:

    11.19 Loan to Clubs Outside North America. The SPC of any Player may contain a clause that
    provides that, in the event his NHL Club Loans the Player to a club outside the NHL, during the
    period of such Loan, the Player shall have the option to be Loaned to a club of his choice outside
    North America. The clause may relieve the NHL Club of the obligation to pay the Player his
    Paragraph 1 Salary for the duration of such Loan if such relief is expressly stated in the
    provision, but the NHL Club shall otherwise be responsible for all other payments due to the
    Player by the NHL Club pursuant to his SPC. Such clause shall be subject to any applicable
    Player Transfer Agreement between the NHL and a hockey federation and/or the IIHF in effect,
    at the time of the Loan. The Player shall be permitted to make financial arrangements for
    compensation and other benefits with the club outside North America for the duration of the
    Loan, which financial compensation and benefits shall not be included in Averaged Club Salary,
    Actual Club Salary, League-wide Player Compensation or the Players’ Share. The Club shall be
    required to provide to the NHL and the NHLPA in accordance with Exhibit 3 any loan
    agreement entered into in relation to such Loan by no later than 5:00 p.m. New York time on the
    day following the day the Club has received the executed loan agreement.

    ————————————————

    As an aside, if a player is playing in Europe after the start of the NHL season, they can’t play in the NHL without being exposed on waivers – there is an exception for RFAs, those on an NHL team’s reserve list and and players under contract with NHL teams – so, essentially a UFA.

    EDIT:

    Shit, looking more closely at the waivers for assignment to minor leagues – that actually includes any team in any league and, yes, a signed Jesse would be subject to the waivers system (unless my further research finds an exception):

    13.1 A Club shall not dispose of the services of any Player in which it has a proprietary
    interest by Loan to a club of another league without first having complied with the provisions of
    this Article. The Waivers that are recognized by this Agreement are Regular Waivers and
    Unconditional Waivers

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: That is ugly.I would rather just hang on to him if that’s all we can get

    Kerfoot wouldn’t be a solid 3C for this team – signed to a reasonable contract for 3 years after this season ($3.5M I think)?

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes: Toronto might be interested in Larsson because they dont have a true heavy minute muncher but why would they move Kerfoot who is their Kadri/3C replacement. They signed him to a 4 year contract ASAP, I think theyd be hard pressed to move him.

    I don’t disagree and I don’t think they would – it would be in the name of balancing their team a bit more in the name of a playoff run.

  134. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Kerfoot wouldn’t be a solid 3C for this team – signed to a reasonable contract for 3 years after this season ($3.5M I think)?

    He would
    But not at the cost of a top 4 tough minutes D
    Plus you were all over my case for even suggesting trading Larsson just a few weeks ago

  135. drglen says:

    Ryan: AA looked good last year.

    Not sure I wouldn’t go crazy listening to “Happy to see you” 100 times per Oilers game.

    I don’t know why Detroit would make that trade.

    lol that’s what I thought I was hearing too.. ha ha .. .. I kept thinking// what? Have these guys got some kind of side conversation going during the broadcast…

    like this player though.

  136. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: Tough sledding for Ferland your GM took a gamble. There’s a tear in my beer and “I’m cryin for you dear”

    Yeah a gamble for sure.
    Next men up.
    Baertschi and Gaudette get the call.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kemp has an assist as Yale is up 2-1 in the 2nd.

    Lavoie finishes with 1G/1A and 8 shots in a a 4-1 win.

    Kesselering with a couple of shots for N.Eastern through 2 – I like his upside.

  138. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: A 25 year old 3C who is over 0.50pts/gm and under contract for 3 more years at 3.5 isn’t bad value for Larsson imo and I like Larsson.

    Don’t think TOR does it though I don’t think they have anyone to take that spot.

    They have mid-6 wingers falling out the asshole and would want to trade one of those.

    I would like Johnsson coming back. I’m higher on him than any Leafs winger not named Mitch.

  139. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Binning prospects by age is a serious logical flaw.
    Most good NHL players emerge early these days.

    So by your own words Joulevie is not a good player!

  140. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr: So by your own words Joulevie is not a good player!

    Don’t Feed The Trolls

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Binning prospects by age is a serious logical flaw.
    Most good NHL players emerge early these days.

    Then why are you citing 24 year olds career minor leagues are a positive?

    The difference between a 21 year old and 24 year old in the AHL (or any league) is massive.

    Imagine that, using a 24 year old at PPG pace through 8 games as a sign of a superior prospect system and then saying that age doesn’t really matter when discussing prospects.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: He would
    But not at the cost of a top 4 tough minutes D
    Plus you were all over my case for even suggesting trading Larsson just a few weeks ago

    I’m not actually suggesting that we make this trade – it was in response to a suggestion of trading Larssson for a forward and I responded to make discussion.

    My response to you was more about my inference that you were discounting Kerfoot’s abilities.

    That would actually be a tough deal to turn down because I think Kerfoot would flourish as an Oiler and his contract would be a perfect stop-gab to McLeod – 1.5-2 years in AHL, a year as a winger in the NHL (with some center time) and then taking over from Kerfoot as 3C.

    Again, not sure I would make the trade, it would be easier after Bouchard establishes himself as an NHL 3RD and, even still, Larsson’s skill-set, as you say, would be missed.

    With that said, if we’ve learned nothing from our 14 games, is that the ability of the defence to move the puck makes a massive difference to the team and its overall game. Joel Persson isn’t all that great but his removal and then re-insertion to the lineup seems to be a material thing due to skill-set and player playing in the proper roles.

    Trust me, I’d rather due Russell plus for Kerfoot – shit, Russell plus Jesse.

  143. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Connor and Leon driving their own lines is ideal, but they need different things.

    Connor is the offensive genius, he needs line mates that can support what he does, like Gretzky. Right now Leon is that player. For Leon to have his own line Connor needs his Kurri and his Tik. A finisher who’s defensively responsible and a distraction. Kassian is that now but doesn’t have the top end skill to stay there in a perfect world.

    Leon needs players that can score and play at his IQ level. I think it’s more open as to what that is because he’s such a beast of a player.

    Talk about a Gretzky Messier combo.

    I also really liked Persson’s stick last game. He’s not physical but he was disruptive a lot knocking pucks away and that in the end is the same as banging or snow angel.

  144. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: So by your own words Joulevie is not a good player!

    Not at all.
    He missed almost an entire season to injury.
    Juolevi had 13 points in 18 games before the injury.
    Evan Bouchard has 4 points in 9 games.
    Can you spot the difference?
    Age has nothing to do with it.

  145. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Then why are you citing 24 year olds career minor leagues are a positive?

    The difference between a 21 year old and 24 year old in the AHL (or any league) is massive.

    Imagine that, using a 24 year old at PPG pace through 8 games as a sign of a superior prospect system and then saying that age doesn’t really matter when discussing prospects.

    Good grief..you are so dense.
    Quinn Hughes and Evan Bouchard are the same age and separated by only 3 draft spots.
    One is a budding superstar and a Calder Trophy favourite and the other is barely keeping his head above water in the AHL.
    Age has nothing to do with it.

  146. Yeti says:

    And another thread which is dominated by a stupid war of words with Harper’s Hair.

    Posters: every bit of fire you send over simply fans the flames. It’s a game for him, nothing more. You can win every single battle and lose the war. He’s here purely to provoke, and loves it. Every last rebuttal, every last nail in his coffin, only comes back at you. This is sport for him.

    As Leadfarmer says, stop feeding the fire. It’s so fucking tiresome.

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    As for the Dys, for the first time in years they have some serious talent.

    But similar to the Oilers past it’s not ideal. Horvat is a beast but not a high end talent. Pettersson is special but ridiculously skinny. Hughes is tiny.

    There are 2 seasons. The Canucks have some pavement to travel to be a good playoff team as their roster stands.

    Love Pettersson, he’s a beauty. I’m not sold on undersized offensive D how ever. The 1 % are 2 season players IMO. It’s hard in a capped league to shelter offensive players bcs they get paid.

    It takes a perfect scenario with low paid D. Hard to sustain. Which is why Bouchard has more value as a young D prospect.

    A far better prospect of having a range of skills that help bcs tall and normal weight (strength). Of course any player can break the mould but it’s less likely than players with requisite NHL norms of skating size and skill panning out.

  148. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Yeti:
    And another thread which is dominated by a stupid war of words with Harper’s Hair.

    Posters: every bit of fire you send over simply fans the flames. It’s a game for him, nothing more. You can win every single battle and lose the war. He’s here purely to provoke, and loves it. Every last rebuttal, every last nail in his coffin, only comes back at you. This is sport for him.

    As Leadfarmer says, stop feeding the fire. It’s so fucking tiresome.

    There is a settlement of accounts in the end.

    The Dys will be the Dys and fail or crap out .

    Their prospects will not be better overall.

  149. ArmchairGM says:

    drglen: lol that’s what I thought I was hearing too.. ha ha .. ..I kept thinking// what?Have these guys got some kind of side conversation going during the broadcast…

    like this player though.

    Haha, watching the Caps during their SC run and one of my kids asked, “why don’t the refs stop the play?”

    I responded, “why would they do that?”

    ” ‘Cause nets off.”

  150. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah a gamble for sure.
    Next men up.
    Baertschi and Gaudette get the call.

    There goes your balance, teams will start taking liberties especially with Pettersson. They sure could use a player like Kassian or Khaira.

  151. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: Not at all.
    He missed almost an entire season to injury.
    Juolevi had 13 points in 18 games before the injury.
    Evan Bouchard has 4 points in 9 games.
    Can you spot the difference?
    Age has nothing to do with it.

    Bouchard has 12 points in 17 games, and about half of those games were playoff games where he got just a handful of minutes as a teenager.

    Yeah, I think I can spot the difference now, thanks.

  152. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Harpers Hair: Good grief..you are so dense.
    Quinn Hughes and Evan Bouchard are the same age and separated by only 3 draft spots.
    One is a budding superstar and a Calder Trophy favourite and the other is barely keeping his head above water in the AHL.
    Age has nothing to do with it.

    Lol I love it!

    I love that you always go the extra mile to make a reasonable statement as provocative as possible.

    No question the Canucks prospects are good (better than the Oiles), and currently Hughes is lapping Bouchard.

    Do you think the Oilers could pry Baertschi out of Vancouver? Maybe for draft bust Bouchard and Joe Colborne…. errr Leon Draisaitl?

  153. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Also, any update on elite penalty killer Toby Reider?!?

  154. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: Bouchard has 12 points in 17 games, and about half of those games were playoff games where he got just a handful of minutes as a teenager.

    Yeah, I think I can spot the difference now, thanks.

    STOP FEEDING THE GDAMN TROLL
    He just wants an argument
    It’s like the Monty Python argument skit
    But dumb

  155. leadfarmer says:

    Dr. Taboggan,

    HE DOESNT CARE
    He just wants an argument
    Go to his website if you want circular arguments that go nowhere

  156. duct tape and foil says:

    godot10:
    Trading Larsson is a bad idea. I don’t want to see Russell on the right side ever again.Larsson is critical to breaking in a slew of left had D over the next few years (Jones, Lagesson, Broberg, Samourukov).

    Trade Benning next summer.

    100% correct.

    Bear, Benning, Persson and Bouchard is not a recipe for success for another 2.5 years.

  157. JimmyV1965 says:

    I would pump the brakes on Juolevi as some sure fire prospect. He’s struggled mightily since being drafted, in addition to the injury last year. Juolevi is no better a prospect than JP at this point.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner vs. Peterson in net.

    Peterson has had a couple of unreal games against the Condors – he’s got NHL experience, with success.

    Lagesson in the lineup.

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Good grief..you are so dense.
    Quinn Hughes and Evan Bouchard are the same age and separated by only 3 draft spots.
    One is a budding superstar and a Calder Trophy favourite and the other is barely keeping his head above water in the AHL.
    Age has nothing to do with it.

    Who said anything about Hughes and Bouchard?

    You discounted age when analyzing prospects because “good NHL players emerge early” but, at the same time, used old “prospects”, a 23 year old and a 25 year old, and their 8-game sample size success in the AHL as primary reasons why the Canucks prospect group is better.

    The same person stating those two opinion, minutes apart, well, that’s wild.

    I can’t imagine a person that can’t see the issue reconciling two polar opposite statements call me dense but here we are.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    Damn the camera view in Ontario is awful – can barely see who is who.

    Benson/Malone/Currie as one line so Woody mixing things up a bit.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto, Marody, Bouchard, Benson, McLeod comes out first on the PP.

    They seem to go with two even units.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    Day, Malone, Jones, Currie, Esposito on the 2nd unit.

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jones with his shot blocked at the end of a PP and it goes the other way for a 2 on 0 and Skinner makes a 5-bell save.

  164. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine a person that can’t see the issue reconciling two polar opposite statements call me dense but here we are.

    You don’t need too. He knows better. DO NOT FEED THE TROLL

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Malone and Yamamoto PK1.

    Keep developing that broad skill-set Kailer, that’s you meal ticket

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    Deflection goal on the PP for Ontario.

    1-0.

  167. ArmchairGM says:

    There’s an article (if you’re really bored) at nhl.com about how McDavid is winless vs Crosby in his career: 0-3-3. It makes it seem as if Crosby is still the king and McDavid the wannabe (most of the McDavid quotes are about how he watched Crosby growing up), and then buried in the article is their stats:

    Crosby: 6, 2-2-4
    McDavid: 6, 3-9-12

    Bwahahahahahaha! Suck it, Sid!

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner keeping the Condors in this one – 3 real plus saves so far.

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skyler Brind’Amour opens the scoring with his second of the season – a real solid start to his college career. Up arrow continues.

  170. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Who cares what he says
    He is here to Troll
    He will pick an arguement and move it just as quickly to continue the argument

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard still working on getting those “junior habits” out of his game as Holland likes to say.

    Tries to skate the puck out of the own zone and tries to dangle two opponents at his own blueline for a turnover and 25 more seconds of pressure. Later on the same shift, he does get a solid zone entry but a poor drop pass (player behind him was well back) – almost picked off and turned the other way for a fast break.

    No harm done and I assume Woody/Manson will be showing that shift as as teaching moment.

  172. Dr. Taboggan says:

    leadfarmer,

    Lol I have never and will never engage with DSF in an argument.

    I just wanted his thoughts on a possible Joe Colborne trade!

  173. Lowetide says:

    If we could stay away from name calling that would be nice. Andrew I worked with you, know you’re a smart fellow. Please be respectful, thanks.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Bouchard has 12 points in 17 games, and about half of those games were playoff games where he got just a handful of minutes as a teenager.

    Yeah, I think I can spot the difference now, thanks.

    Maybe we should use the 8 points in 8 games in the AHL as a teenager as conclusive?

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting that Day was with Lowe on PK1 (along with Yamamto up front).

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov/McLeod remains a PK duo – really like that.

  177. Kraz says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Hughes is Torey Krug 2.0, Boeser is Eberle 2.0, Miller was the 8th best player on a contending team who was disposable and they traded a first round pick for, Myers was the 3RD on a contender, Jim Benning is a fucking awful GM Travis Green is a mediocre coach. The Canucks are doomed for mediocrity unless they find a way to clone Petterson. They missed their chance to
    Win the cup in 2011 but maybe they will get their shot in another 40 years

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard gets the puck off the cycle, heads down the boards and makes a smart pass in to traffic in front and its tipped in by Currie.

    Solid play the Bouchard – Jones with the 2nd assist.

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marody looking the best on the McLeod/Marody/Yamamoto line.

    Condors played a bit better after they got the momentum from the goal but Skinner was the best player in the period.

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    There’s an article (if you’re really bored) at nhl.com about how McDavid is winless vs Crosby in his career: 0-3-3. It makes it seem as if Crosby is still the king and McDavid the wannabe (most of the McDavid quotes are about how he watched Crosby growing up), and then buried in the article is their stats:

    Crosby: 6, 2-2-4
    McDavid: 6, 3-9-12

    Bwahahahahahaha! Suck it, Sid!

    and, on the polar opposite side of the spectrum is a great article at The Athletic from the PIT guy about how Crosby new McDavid was special at age 15 and things McDavid was doing as a 15 year old in the CHL.

    https://theathletic.com/1343785/2019/11/01/yohe-sidney-crosby-always-knew-connor-mcdavid-was-the-next-one/

  181. Lowetide says:

    Sounds like Hughes got hurt in that VAN-ANA game. He is a great young player, hope he’s okay.

  182. Munny says:

    McSorley33: I am hoping Benson and Marody had a bit of a hangover from being relatively early
    cuts from the big club. Maybe they will turn it on in Nov and Dec.
    I mean Marody is about to turn 23 – if not now – when?
    Strongly suspect ( hope I am wrong ) that the org. has made the call on Gambardella and Marody not having the wheels for the show.

    drglen: Personally, I don’t think the oilers will ever play Marody.

    As Godot says above, maybe we see him if Nuge gets hurt… maybe.

    But unless Marody puts in an Ethan Bear-like off-season effort and improves his skating, he’s not likely to have much of an NHL career.

    It’s on him… he has all the other tools. But he hasn’t undertaken that step to this point, despite the obvious need, so you have to wonder.

  183. Munny says:

    Lowetide:
    Sounds like Hughes got hurt in that VAN-ANA game. He is a great young player, hope he’s okay.

    He’s kind of small for an NHL defenseman isn’t he? Be a shame to lose such a talent to chronic injury woes.

  184. Pescador says:

    Kraz:
    Harpers Hair,

    Hughes is Torey Krug 2.0, Boeser is Eberle 2.0, Miller was the 8th best player on a contending team who was disposable and they traded a first round pick for, Myers was the 3RD on a contender, Jim Benning is a fucking awful GM Travis Green is a mediocre coach. The Canucks are doomed for mediocrity unless they find a way to clone Petterson. They missed their chance to
    Win the cup in 2011 but maybe they will get their shot in another 40 years

    Oh but the riots & the senseless vandalism of private property,
    That was the true victory

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    As it relates to that super soft schedule, the Oiler have beat the 1st, 7th and 10th place teams in the NHL.

  186. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Just when I think you can’t get any more ridiculously funny, you out do yourself!! Goodness gracious, the laughs you’ve provided today. Lightened my soul.

    You do God’s work, DSF. I know it will be difficult—even for one as comedically talented as you—but please keep up the absurd comments. Sure does a body good.

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto is pretty much drawing a penalty ever game.

  188. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors start with the Day, Jones, Curie, Esposito, Malone PP after a TV timeout.

  189. drglen says:

    ArmchairGM: Haha, watching the Caps during their SC run and one of my kids asked, “why don’t the refs stop the play?”

    I responded, “why would they do that?”

    ” ‘Cause nets off.”

    lol _+111

  190. Material Elvis says:

    Lowetide:
    Sounds like Hughes got hurt in that VAN-ANA game. He is a great young player, hope he’s okay.

    It looks like his ankle broke when he was skating. I haven’t heard what the diagnosis is but it didn’t look good. Very strange that it would snap like that without trauma or any provocation. Hope he’s okay, too.

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson struggling with his finishing confidence – he’s playing alright but just whiffed on a PP one-timer off a great set-up by Marody (and Bouchard) – and looked up at the sky.

  192. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Malone and Yamamoto PK1.

    Keep developing that broad skill-set Kailer, that’s you meal ticket

    and that’s Jay! recognizing the terrain and helping the kid out. Good show.

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Sounds like Hughes got hurt in that VAN-ANA game. He is a great young player, hope he’s okay.

    Looks like he caught a rut or something and that did not look good for his ankle.

  194. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Marody looking the best on the McLeod/Marody/Yamamoto line.

    Condors played a bit better after they got the momentum from the goal but Skinner was the best player in the period.

    I’m going to have to get that condors package.. . but that’s the thing.. Marody has this great possesion skill and craftyness, .. but in what I remember from the NHL games, he’s pretty much kept to the outside/perimeter. Lots of movement and the appearance of progress, but nothing comes of it. – like treading water. Now I don’t think he’s had much taste of the benefit of top 6 NHL finishers either.. Maybe a bit more speed is all he needs.. pure atheletic breakwway speed. I don’t know enough about hockey to know if this is possible beyond a certain age and with a certain body size.

  195. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like the Condors just got robbed of a goal – refs wouldn’t even review it – Ryan Holt is furious.

    I think its pissed off the Condors – Benson looks like he has a fire lit under his ass – took a bomb of a clapper on the PP and then made a great play as the man-back on a SH 2-1

  196. drglen says:

    Pescador: Oh but the riots & the senseless vandalism of private property,
    That was the true victory

    anybody here live/spend time in Vancouver? I did. Wish I still could in many ways.. but there is this kind of entitled marginal youngish male subculture there.. without a core or grounding, that reared its head that day and to an extent I agree, that demographic is still there and stronger.

    I lived in Toronto too, and I’d be very, very interested to see what would happen if Toronto went to the finals and lost. Would they riot, … you know I don’t think they would. Never. Honestly I think they would just go home, or head out and celebrate the run smiling with friends.

    I don’t think Vancouver’s ever going to live that down, but this team with that coach will be a very tough out in the playoffs.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    Colorado loses to Dallas and the Oilers stay atop the Western Conference.

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: He’s kind of small for an NHL defenseman isn’t he?Be a shame to lose such a talent to chronic injury woes.

    In this case, he twisted his ankle (looked like he caught a rut) mid ice with no player touching him

  199. OriginalPouzar says:

    MaterialElvis: It looks like his ankle broke when he was skating.I haven’t heard what the diagnosis is but it didn’t look good.Very strange that it would snap like that without trauma or any provocation.Hope he’s okay, too.

    My head went to sprain more than break – hoping its not the dreaded high ankle sprain

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