The Big Train

The overtime on Saturday afternoon between the Oilers and Penguins was splendid entertainment. Getting to the extra frame was a marathon of endurance and skill, as the public at large worried about the quality and amount of rubber faced by Mike Smith. You can’t win this way over a season, over even a month, but on the second day of November 2019, the Oilers rode the big train to glory.

Leon Draisaitl’s overtime winner combined power, speed and skill in equal portions, and showed once again how dominant the big man is at this time. Can he score 50 again? Who on planet earth would bet against him?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Mailbag: Fixing the forward depth, slotting the big three, a Puljujarvi trade and more
  • Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
  • Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
  • Lowetide: Sheahan hurt, Oilers in need of a two-way centre; some candidates emerging
  • Jonathan Willis: Handicapping the chase for the Calder after the first month of the 2019-20 NHL season
  • Jonathan Willis: Unproductive Oilers forwards are in danger of losing their jobs — and soon
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the current state of the Edmonton Oilers goaltending.
  • Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers trade for a veteran NHL defenceman?
  • Lowetide: Oilers first-round pick Philip Broberg increases his role; Condors’ Caleb Jones looks NHL-ready
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
  • Lowetide: Josh Archibald’s injury and limited replacements available puts some pressure on Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 reasons why the Oilers passed their first true test of the season
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and James Neal are leading a quality Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Assessing the early season progress of Oilers’ defence and goaltending
  • Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s impressive Liiga performance headlines Oilers prospects this week
  • Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS AFTER 15 GAMES

  • Oilers 2015: 5-10-0, 10 points; goal differential -8
  • Oilers 2016: 9-5-1, 19 points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers 2017: 6-8-1, 13 points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers 2018: 8-6-1, 17 points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers 2019: 10-4-1, 21 points; goal differential +8

This is the first McDavid Oilers club to post 10 wins in the team’s first 15 games. The 2019-20 club also has the best goal differential over the last five seasons.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in November 2016: 0-0-1, one point; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2017: 0-1-0, no points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2018: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in November 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1

A good result to start another month, November has (in the past) been the month that separates the Oilers from the playoffs. The team has never posted more than 13 points or fewer than 10—and has never been above .500 in November since McDavid’s arrival. It’s a big month to come.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1)
  • At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-0-0, 2 points after one game

Seven wins and 15 points (as predicted) would mean the Oilers finish November at 16-10-2, 34 points in 28 games. That projects to 99.6 points over 82 games. All numbers five-on-five unless noted, and via NST.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 13:57, were a ghastly 3-22 Corsi, 1-16 shots, no goals and 0-5 HDSC.

Leon Draisaitl had one shot, played much of the first 60 in his own end and seemed to be missing on passes or receiving passes just out of his reach. That all changed in OT, as he turned a sliver into absolute daylight. His brilliant breakaway goal, equal parts brawn and beauty, won the game. Connor McDavid drew a penalty and had a takeaway, but this was possibly the least effective game I’ve ever seen from him. Nothing he was doing wrong especially, credit the Penguins tight checking (they were on him whenever the puck came within a 10 mile radius). He made a lovely pass to Klefbom, who sent it behind the net and it caromed off the boards and right to Jujhar Khaira for a great chance. Zack Kassian had a shot and four hits, he was the only member of the line who spent much time at all with clean air.

LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Nuge-Sam Gagner played 9:37, went 5-12 Corsi, 3-8 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira had what might have been the best chance of the game, mentioned above. One shot, three hits, took a penalty he didn’t earn (horrible call). Nuge had a great SH chance, but didn’t get much done at five-on-five. Solid in the dot. Sam Gagner had his quietest game since the recent recall.

LINE 3 Alex Chiasson-Gaetan Haas-James Neal played 7:16, going 6-9 Corsi, 4-6 shots, 2-0 HDSC.

Alex Chiasson had two shots, a takeaway and a couple of hits. He gets lost a little without a skill center, but he is trustworthy. Gaetan Haas had one brilliant play on the back check, very dangerous sortie resolved with his heady play. Also had two shots and one HDSC. James Neal had one HDSC, a takeaway and cleared the netfront in an insane game moment.

LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 6:18, going 6-7 Corsi, 3-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC. Music!

Markus Granlund had an assist, drew a penalty had a couple of shots and played well overall. Colby Cave had a strong game, scoring a goal, winning eight of 11 faceoffs at five-on-five and showing he has no interest in returning to California. Patrick Russell had a shot and a HDSC worked hard and effectively.

PK minutes: Nuge 3:43; Patrick Russell 3:40; Colby Cave 3:03; Markus Granlund 3:03; Leon Draisaitl 2:31; Jujhar Khaira 2:09. No goals against.

2019-20 OILERS

PAIRING ONE Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 14:04, going 7-24 Corsi, 4-15 shots, no goals and 2-4 HDSC. Klefbom was 0-12 shots with McDavid in 8:37. My.

Oscar Klefbom had one shot and a takeaway, he looks slower lately and I wonder about all this icetime. Made smart plays with the puck and battled through a tough Penguins forecheck. Joel Persson had one shot and a takeaway, he scrambles but gets the job done. I’m starting to believe he can fill an NHL role.

PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 13:55, going 6-13 Corsi, 1-9 shots, no goals and 0-3 HDSC. Pairing spent 8:04 with 97, and the group was 1-6 shots. Le holy.

Darnell Nurse had some good moments, including a blocked shot with the team in extreme peril when Mike Smith was out of position. He rumbled up the ice several times, dishing well but nothing came of it. I do like that he is often seen passing the puck to Bear for the outlet. Ethan Bear missed several minutes late in the first period after his leg (or knee) twisted on a tight check. Bear returned and played well. JB on twitter noted Bear following up Draisaitl for loose change on the GWG. Nice.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 10:49, 9-16 Corsi, 5-9 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-4 HDSC.

Kris Russell defended well and hit like a cement truck, he doesn’t get a lot of credit but on this night was part of the most successful pairing. Matt Benning had an assist, two shots, a takeaway and two penalties. I liked his game.

GOALIE Mike Smith was the star of the game, stopping all 38 five-on-five shots and 51 of 52 overall (.981). Oilers are always in these blasted games where the goalie plays Jesus.

CONDORS 2019-20

I’ll be writing about the Condors today at The Athletic, but it appears Jay Woodcroft has found the right chemistry for his group this season. Some items: Stuart Skinner has emerged as the starter with Shane Starrett down (I didn’t see much difference between Skinner and Dylan Wells); The addition of Lagesson and Day has given the team far more defensive torque; Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody appear to be starting to push again.

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276 Responses to "The Big Train"

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  1. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They are for projection purposes.

    Goal differential especially is much better at predicting future standings points.

    Disparity in GP makes Points a little uneven in distribution available.

    I was going to say don’t tell OP then I saw you did.

  2. Glovjuice says:

    stephen sheps:
    In 1995, Mike Watt, ex-Minutemen and ex-fIREHOSE bass player and all around punk music legend put out an album called Ball-Hog or Tugboat. It was his solo debut and contained an 80s and 90s indie/punk/alt-rock dream lineup, featuring Eddie Vedder, Evan Dando, Henry Rollins, Ad-Rock and Mike D, Dave Pirner (Soul Asylum), Black Francis, Lee and Thurston from Sonic Youth, That Dog’s Petra and Rachel Haden and Anna Waronker, a couple members of the Circle Jerks, Stephen Perkins from Jane’s Addiction, Flea (playing trumpet!), future Wilco member and virtuoso guitarist Nels Cline, Pat Smear and Dave Grohl. I probably missed a few.

    The album was absolutely insane, bridging the gap between the SST punk, hardcore and college rock of the 80s, the grunge of the early 90s and the weird-as-hell jazz punk direction that Watt’s solo albums would take. He went on the road that summer with a touring band including Eddie Vedder on vocals and guitar, Pat Smear on lead guitar, original Foo Fighters drummer William Goldsmith (ex-sunny day real estate), who would occasionally alternate with Grohl behind the kit when Grohl wasn’t needed as a 3rd guitarist. Opening acts on this tour were Hovercraft (Eddie’s then wife’s band, in which he played drums) and the Foo Fighters on their very first tour, shortly after the self-titled debut was released.

    Eddie only agreed to go on the tour if it wasn’t public knowledge that he was in the band due to a pretty significant stalker problem he was dealing with at the time, a problem so bad that it initially prevented him from going on the road with Pearl Jam that same summer when they served as Neil Young’s backing band. And as was tradition when you tour with Watt, they toured in an econoline van with no roadies, setting up and taking down their own gear, selling their own merch at the table after gigs and not treating it as anything other than what it was – a really fun summer tour. Watt’s ‘we jam econo’ ethos carried over from the Minutemen to his tours even today.

    Anyhoo, the reason for this history of 90s music lesson is that the first single from Ball-Hog or Tugboat was the first song Watt ever sang lead vocals on in any band – a song called ‘Big Train’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAjdXZDPwfI

    (and as a bonus for anyone interested, they played on Jon Stewart’s mid 90s MTV show – yes that Jon Stewart… here’s a clip
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IVnTWjwqtM&feature=player_embedded)

    Cool, don’t here of this stuff that often….or by many.

  3. Glovjuice says:

    Two other sort of missed “superbands” from the era are Hater and also The Wellwater Conspiracy.

  4. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes and I’m sober too.

    I do it to keep the continuity of the thought.

    Glad to hear it. Good time of the year to be sober also.

    What does Woodguy think are the chances of Hall returning to Edmonton? I keep getting this strange vibe Hall might metaphorically want to play Punch Imlach with Holland, in that Holland sticks a contract on the table and Hall signs it without reading it.

  5. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965: I really like the Miller trade. Lots of people thought it was an overpay, but he’s worked out fine. I certainly don’t have an issue cashing in a first rotund puck, but would prefer it be in 2021. This year’s draft could be special.

    Hughes is a great prospect, but his regression in the second half will be jaw dropping. The NHL is an incredible grind and rookies who come from the NCAA need to adjust. He’s going to fade big time as the season wears on. That or get injured.

    The Kanuckle heads win a few games and they come out of the closet.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m guessing that’s related to the Koskinen Hall thing
    That is probably the most entertaining thing of this year
    Is after daily Koskinen bashing for 6 months
    You completely deny that it ever happened

    I have done nothing of the sort.

    I have simply summarized the absolute truth:

    – my opinion that he was not good enough through the year last year – although I softened on the “only good during the heater” position when provided with information in the spring regarding play with rest as opposed to lack of rest. Still, his plan on the whole was not good enough and his signing remains egregious.

    – my position after early July that, given the history of the two goalies, that there is the potential to provide good to plus level tending this year by trading off hot streaks. I didn’t think it would happen but absolutely has hopeful that it could and probably one of the more optimistic posters on the tending tandem through the summer.

    I’ve denied nothing and my position on the tandem over the last few months is truth and please stop implying I am lying – its not true.

  7. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Nit64: Like the move to RW before ROW. But they sure kept it secret from NHL.com.

    Checked a bunch a while ago and here’s one. RW at far right:

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2020_standings.html

    THANK YOU. I have been trying unsuccessfully for a long time to find a reliable source of regulation wins. For years the damfools would give four columns with all wins crammed into one, regulation losses, overtime losses AND shootout losses (even though the latter two were worth the exact same one point) and treat regulation wins like some sort of fucking state secret or something. I have bruteforced a count of RW more times than I care to admit.

    Love Hockey-Reference but rarely (used to) look at this specific page. That’s about to change.

    And it’s beyond high time the NHL switched up the tie-breaker. In answer to Hunter’s earlier question, they switched to ROW a few years ago so as to incentivize wins in overtime rather than teams hanging on for the shootout, but it never occurred to them to incentivize regulation wins. The refusal to accept the mathematically-correct 3-point option remains an absurdity of Gary Bettman’s NHL, but not even as a tie-breaker? Come on. Anyway, that’s finally fixed.

    And all that said, tie-breaking systems are fine if they involve playoff seedings, but they too are absurd when deciding an actual playoff berth. Teams tied for the last spot should have a play-in game, full stop. To have some crazy accounting system determine it — when they could have an actual game for all the marbles with attendant fan interest, TV coverage, etc. — is infuckingsane on every level.

    Man, this league …

  8. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: The Kanuckle heads win a few games and they come out of the closet.

    Why do they think anyone cares about that pathetic excuse of a NHL franchise? Don’t they understand they’re just getting set up to be Edmonton’s playoff fodder?

  9. Reja says:

    hunter1909: Why do they think anyone cares about that pathetic excuse of a NHL franchise? Don’t they understand they’re just getting set up to be Edmonton’s playoff fodder?

    I live in B.C and I haven’t heard as much fan boy bullshit for the Canucks as the last week on this blog.OOH Bo likes Thai. OOH JT is Buddhist. OOH OOH Brock has a new girlfriend. I always felt pity for Canuck fans because they haven’t won shit this no longer applies can’t wait for the back to back games at the end of the month.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: Glad to hear it. Good time of the year to be sober also.

    What does Woodguy think are the chances of Hall returning to Edmonton? I keep getting this strange vibe Hall might metaphorically want to play Punch Imlach with Holland, in that Holland sticks a contract on the table and Hall signs it without reading it.

    From what has been said it sounds like he wants to play where he has a chance to win soon and money isn’t the first object so he’s probably willing to sign for less than what he could get from the highest bidder.

    Its has also been said that he’d prefer to play in Canada.

    So if you look at the Canadian teams with “a chance to win” in the next few years that could fit ~$9MM in (teams would move money to hire him as well), then there is your list.

    VAN, CGY and EDM would probably have the inside track if the “wants to play in Canada” thing is true and those 3 teams put up reasonable results this year (not guaranteed)

    TOR or WPG can’t fit him in and I don’t know if he would consider MTL. MTL could fit him in.

    All 3 teams could fit him in $9MM by moving a couple of things, but CGY needs Dcorps so it depends on if their kids can play 2nd pair next year to determine how much $$$ they can spend there.

    Remember that the cap is 21/22 will have the new US TV deal (probably bumps each team’s cap by ~$6MM on its own if the deal is $400MM more than today’s deal and that might be low) and then Seattle’s revenue is projected to be over $150MM so that will probably add another ~2.0-$2.5MM for 22/23.

    For 20/21 the cap probably only goes up ~2MM

  11. Munny says:

    Would love that out of town scoreboard to hold up right now…

  12. Reja says:

    Bruce McCurdy: THANK YOU. I have been trying unsuccessfully for a long time to find a reliable source of regulation wins. For years the damfools would give four columns with all wins crammed into one, regulation losses, overtime losses AND shootout losses (even though the latter two were worth the exact same one point) and treat regulation wins like some sort of fucking state secret or something. I have bruteforced a count of RW more times than I care to admit.

    Love Hockey-Reference but rarely (used to) look at this specific page. That’s about to change.

    And it’s beyond high time the NHL switched up the tie-breaker. In answer to Hunter’s earlier question, they switched to ROW a few years ago so as to incentivize wins in overtime rather than teams hanging on for the shootout, but it never occurred to them to incentivize regulation wins. The refusal to accept the mathematically-correct 3-point option remains an absurdity of Gary Bettman’s NHL, but not even as a tie-breaker? Come on. Anyway, that’s finally fixed.

    And all that said, tie-breaking systems are fine if they involve playoff seedings, but they too are absurd when deciding an actual playoff berth. Teams tied for the last spot should have a play-in game, full stop. To have some crazy accounting system determine it — when they could have an actual game for all the marbles with attendant fan interest, TV coverage, etc. — is infuckingsane on every level.

    Man, this league …

    Kudos for nailing Cave as a reliable and very cheap spot 4th line Centre in the summer blogs from what I recall. He’s on a roll when he dropped that poor sap with one punch in Bakersfield then the Stupendous goal and PK plus Faceoff dominance.in Pittsburgh. Giddy up sign me up as a new Caveman fan.

  13. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Reja: Kudos for nailing Cave as a reliable and very cheap spot 4th line Centre in the summer blogsfrom what I recall. He’s on a roll when he dropped that poor sap with one punch in Bakersfield then the Stupendous goal and PK plus Faceoff dominance.in Pittsburgh. Giddy up sign me up as a new Caveman fan.

    Thanks, Reja. Cave had unconscious underlying numbers a year ago; of all forwards with 300 minutes he was #1 in every percentage except GF%. Number One.

    And it’s hard to argue with a cap hit that’s $25 K below league minimum!

  14. defmn says:

    hunter1909: Thanks. No wonder lawyers post on Lowetide. Since the salary cap it’s not good enough simply to watch the games lol

    ???? Not sure what you mean. Are you calling me a lawyer?

  15. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think he’s going to want to compete and will go to the Avs or Bruins
    I think NYI will make a strong run at him but will be left at the ball again like Panarin
    I would be honestly shocked if he wanted to come back here
    And don’t see Calgary being able to fit him in cap wise
    Injuries are a risk but he’s not as reckless as he was in his time here and he’s won a Hart since leaving so the injuries he suffered here are not a factor. only issue is his knee surgery which is a concern but not what it was 10 years ago. The scary thing is that he will need a year to get back to 100% if he gets there and you need to sign him before you know and not everyone does fully recover. But so far this year he doesn’t have that explosiveness but you do need a year for that to come back
    But in my mind this is far less risky of a signing then Karlsson surgically repaired ankle from early degeneration

  16. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0: To extrapolate a bit:

    Go look at previous seasons standings’ and look at the goal diff as well.NHL.com’s standings page is good for that.

    Usually they march in lock step at the end of the season with only a few disparities.

    Currently the Oilers have the 6th best goal differential in the West.

    If EDM ended the year in 6th in the West that would be a very good result by anyone’s measure before the season started.

    Yup. Goal differential has to be the most predictive number I am aware of for determining regular season standings. Rarely see exceptions.

    For some reason it is not nearly as useful for winning money betting on the playoffs. 😉

  17. Reja says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Thanks, Reja. Cave had unconscious underlying numbers a year ago; of all forwards with 300 minutes he was #1 in every percentage except GF%. Number One.

    And it’s hard to argue with a cap hit that’s $25 K below league minimum!

    I was most impressed when Cave was taking a defensive zone faceoff late in the game he was pointing and barking out the orders to his line mates. That’s when you know a player has his Mojo of course players Coach Tippett knows this.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think he’s going to want to compete and will go to the Avs or Bruins
    I think NYI will make a strong run at him but will be left at the ball again like Panarin
    I would be honestly shocked if he wanted to come back here
    And don’t see Calgary being able to fit him in cap wise
    Injuries are a risk but he’s not as reckless as he was in his time here and he’s won a Hart since leaving so the injuries he suffered here are not a factor.only issue is his knee surgery which is a concern but not what it was 10 years ago.The scary thing is that he will need a year to get back to 100% if he gets there and you need to sign him before you know and not everyone does fully recover.But so far this year he doesn’t have that explosiveness but you do need a year for that to come back
    But in my mind this is far less risky of a signing then Karlsson surgically repaired ankle from early degeneration

    If the “wants to play in Canada” thing isn’t as strong as “wants to win” then BOS or COL would be front runners for sure.

    BOS would be crazy good with him driving the 2nd line.

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think he’s going to want to compete and will go to the Avs or Bruins
    I think NYI will make a strong run at him but will be left at the ball again like Panarin
    I would be honestly shocked if he wanted to come back here
    And don’t see Calgary being able to fit him in cap wise
    Injuries are a risk but he’s not as reckless as he was in his time here and he’s won a Hart since leaving so the injuries he suffered here are not a factor.only issue is his knee surgery which is a concern but not what it was 10 years ago.The scary thing is that he will need a year to get back to 100% if he gets there and you need to sign him before you know and not everyone does fully recover.But so far this year he doesn’t have that explosiveness but you do need a year for that to come back
    But in my mind this is far less risky of a signing then Karlsson surgically repaired ankle from early degeneration

    CGY has $22MM in cap space next year with no expensive players to re-sign.

    They’ll probably try to add a good NHL vet Dman to play 2nd pair or with Gio.

    Frolik $4MM
    Hammonic $3.87MM
    Brodie $4.65MM

    Are all coming off and they have no plans to retain any of them.

    They could do it if they don’t aim too high on Dmen.

    Andersson is already playing 2nd pair with Hanafin.

    They might want to sign or trade for a vet righty to play with Gio, not sure there…Andersson has gotten a few games with Gio already.

    I think CGY could fit him in.

  20. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: Yup. Goal differential has to be the most predictive number I am aware of for determining regular season standings. Rarely see exceptions.

    For some reason it is not nearly as useful for winning money betting on the playoffs.

    Collect 2 Woodguys…bet it on the Blues to win the cup.

    Profit.

  21. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: CGY has $22MM in cap space next year with no expensive players to re-sign.

    They’ll probably try to add a good NHL vet Dman to play 2nd pair or with Gio.

    Frolik $4MM
    Hammonic$3.87MM
    Brodie $4.65MM

    Are all coming off and they have no plans to retain any of them.

    They could do it if they don’t aim too high on Dmen.

    Andersson is already playing 2nd pair with Hanafin.

    They might want to sign or trade for a vet righty to play with Gio, not sure there…Andersson has gotten a few games with Gio already.

    I think CGY could fit him in.

    Valimaki is the goods.
    Flames will have room.

  22. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Until Hall signs for 7-8 years………

    I almost barfed

  23. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: CGY has $22MM in cap space next year with no expensive players to re-sign.

    They’ll probably try to add a good NHL vet Dman to play 2nd pair or with Gio.

    Frolik $4MM
    Hammonic$3.87MM
    Brodie $4.65MM

    Are all coming off and they have no plans to retain any of them.

    They could do it if they don’t aim too high on Dmen.

    Andersson is already playing 2nd pair with Hanafin.

    They might want to sign or trade for a vet righty to play with Gio, not sure there…Andersson has gotten a few games with Gio already.

    I think CGY could fit him in.

    They have to plan for Tkachuks next contract, and it probably will be 9.5-10 mill at a minimum I’d think. I guess it depends on how they are forecasting the cap to go up.

    They have more cap space to play with than Edmonton though so I don’t see a reason to rule them out. Then signing Hall would be painful though and I hope to god I never see him in Flames silks

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    But they have the cap space next year. But if you sign Hall you need the cap space for 5-7 years
    Yes they don’t have big players to re-sign next year but that is just next year.
    They only have 2 D under contract next year
    Whether or not Rittich is the answer probably is he only has 1 more year
    Tkachuk and Gaudreau only have 2 more years and will need raises. Gio is 36 and time unfortunately will slow him down
    Not saying they can’t do it just seems like they have the expensive winger position covered and would probably be better served spending that money elsewhere
    Kind of like us I guess. Hall would look great on that second line but we kind of have the expensive forward positions filled

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    Silver Streak: Colby Cave eats Marody`s lunch…..he is much quicker,has a better shot, better hands …think he scored 34 in last year in the Dub……and he can drop the mitts with success
    He is a great 4C fit for us.

    Cave has played three full seasons in the AHL and never came close to posting the numbers Marody did in his first year in the minors. I haven’t watched a lot of Condors games so I don’t feel comfortable saying who’s better, but going strictly by points, Cave is miles away from Marody.

  26. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Valimaki is the goods.
    Flames will have room.

    Vallimaki is a very good young player
    But injuries during development time can unfortunately be devastating
    His explosiveness will be gone for next season

  27. yeraslob says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    But they have the cap space next year.But if you sign Hall you need the cap space for 5-7 years
    Yes they don’t have big players to re-sign next year but that is just next year.
    They only have 2 D under contract next year
    Whether or not Rittich is the answer probably is he only has 1 more year
    Tkachuk and Gaudreau only have 2 more years and will need raises.Gio is 36 and time unfortunately will slow him down
    Not saying they can’t do it just seems like they have the expensive winger position covered and would probably be better served spending that money elsewhere
    Kind of like us I guess. Hall would look great on that second line but we kind of have the expensive forward positions filled

    Gio is already regressing. Playoffs showed he can’t handle speed anymore. Geritol Gio was pylonned by McKinnon repeatedly. His regression takes the first pairing down a peg.
    Can see Goo Goo Doll taking the highest bidder’s money on his next contract. Not that he’s any help come playoff time anyway.

  28. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: From what has been said it sounds like he wants to play where he has a chance to win soon and money isn’t the first object so he’s probably willing to sign for less than what he could get from the highest bidder.

    I have been iterating this for a couple of months now.

    There’s a very good chance that because of this motivation, he’d sign for less than 7 years too.

    But don’t tell OP.

  29. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s already injured – with that said, it was a freak thing (I think he caught a rut) and nothing to do with anything legit.

    I do agree that on the regression as the season wears on and have posited the same with a guy like Ethan Bear – even though he’s been playing pro, he’s played 55 and 52 games the last couple years and, well, nothing compares to the grind that is the NHL.

    Same with the new Europeans – both Haas and Nygard are dealing with a more physical style of play (they’ve both taken knocks almost every game) and playing more games with much more travel.

    The travel in the NHL (as compared to junior, college, European leagues), especially for the Western teams, is material.Ya, I know, chartered flights and cushy hotels but still.

    I very rarely take rookies in my draft and if I do, they come from the AHL and possibly the CHL. Never Europe. The NCAA is a black hole for rookies because they have the lightest schedule. By the way, as a CHL alum Bear is much more familiar with an NHL-type schedule.

  30. Munny says:

    Munny:
    Would love that out of town scoreboard to hold up right now…

    Well, I’m half happy. Ducks eke out a point. Flames do lose.

    Meanwhile a very interesting Sunday night NFL battle is being waged.

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    Olofsson was the only rookie I took in my draft this year. Actually my first rookie in a few years. Was really pumped about his potential. He’s from the AHL and has an incredible shot. Unfortunately, don’t think his early success will last. He looks truly lost out there 5 x 5.

  32. Nit64 says:

    Munny: I have been iterating this for a couple of months now.

    There’s a very good chance that because of this motivation, he’d sign for less than 7 years too.

    But don’t tell OP.

    In Van. Don’t tell HH.

  33. Nit64 says:

    Munny: Well, I’m half happy. Ducks eke out a point. Flames do lose.

    Meanwhile a very interesting Sunday night NFL battle is being waged.

    Perfect time to start a 2 game losing streak. Don’t tell the Flames that Lucic’s suspension isn’t the reason.

  34. GMB3 says:

    JimmyV1965: Cave has played three full seasons in the AHL and never came close to posting the numbers Marody did in his first year in the minors. I haven’t watched a lot of Condors games so I don’t feel comfortable saying who’s better, but going strictly by points, Cave is miles away from Marody.

    Yeah it’s bananalands to think Caves offensive game comes close to Marody’s. Different worlds.

  35. Nit64 says:

    GMB3: Yeah it’s bananalands to think Caves offensive game comes close to Marody’s. Different worlds.

    Different worlds alright. Bruce was looking at NHL ice time. NHLE is nice to project from, but the guys has to translate his game. Hope to see Marody up here sometime to prove he can translate his game.

  36. GMB3 says:

    Nit64: Different worlds alright. Bruce was looking at NHL ice time. NHLE is nice to project from, but the guys has to translate his game.Hope to see Marody up here sometime to prove he can translate his game.

    Not in response to Bruce. Look at the comment Jimmy responded too.

  37. Munny says:

    Nit64: Perfect time to start a 2 game losing streak. Don’t tell the Flames that Lucic’s suspension isn’t the reason.

    I have a lot of faith in Cow Media selling this narrative.

    BTW, The NHL should dump suspensions and make it two rounds with Parros instead…

    See if it stops liberties from being taken. 😉

    (Well I’d bet it makes Tkafuck think twice)

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Collect 2 Woodguys…bet it on the Blues to win the cup.

    Profit.

    i got a great price on STL to to win the Cup too.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    But they have the cap space next year.But if you sign Hall you need the cap space for 5-7 years
    Yes they don’t have big players to re-sign next year but that is just next year.
    They only have 2 D under contract next year
    Whether or not Rittich is the answer probably is he only has 1 more year
    Tkachuk and Gaudreau only have 2 more years and will need raises.Gio is 36 and time unfortunately will slow him down
    Not saying they can’t do it just seems like they have the expensive winger position covered and would probably be better served spending that money elsewhere
    Kind of like us I guess. Hall would look great on that second line but we kind of have the expensive forward positions filled

    Cap is jumping by ~10MM over 21/22 and 22/23, see my earlier post

  40. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: i got a great price on STL to to win the Cup too.

    Yeah…but I was using your money:)

    It’s early but I think this might be Nashville’s year.

    You?

  41. Munny says:

    GMB3: Yeah it’s bananalands to think Caves offensive game comes close to Marody’s

    About as distant as Marody is from Cave in a footrace.

  42. GMB3 says:

    Munny: About as distant as Marody is from Cave in a footrace.

    Thanks for the relevant comment Munny. Still haven’t figured out NHLe yet hey?

  43. Munny says:

    My 9ers are now the last unbeaten team left in the NFL. Wondered what that would’ve paid at the season’s start…

  44. Munny says:

    GMB3,

    Any particular reason for the dick shot?

    Defensive much?

    I was reading about NHLe the month Gabe first published it. How about you?

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV: Cave has played three full seasons in the AHL and never came close to posting the numbers Marody did in his first year in the minors. I haven’t watched a lot of Condors games so I don’t feel comfortable saying who’s better, but going strictly by points, Cave is miles away from Marody.

    Even with his tepid start to the year, Marody is the main driver of offence on the Condors’ scoring line – he is the puck transporter and the offensive zone possession driver.

    Cave was used in offensive situations in his first few games by Woody, including PP1, but that dwindled quickly.

    They are vastly different players and Cave is not nearly as skilled as Marody and I have no idea where the basis for “better hands” came from – happy to hear though?

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    Neither Cave or Marody are NHL players.
    Beating dead horses.

  47. Victoria Oil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: THANK YOU. I have been trying unsuccessfully for a long time to find a reliable source of regulation wins. For years the damfools would give four columns with all wins crammed into one, regulation losses, overtime losses AND shootout losses (even though the latter two were worth the exact same one point) and treat regulation wins like some sort of fucking state secret or something. I have bruteforced a count of RW more times than I care to admit.

    Love Hockey-Reference but rarely (used to) look at this specific page. That’s about to change.

    And it’s beyond high time the NHL switched up the tie-breaker. In answer to Hunter’s earlier question, they switched to ROW a few years ago so as to incentivize wins in overtime rather than teams hanging on for the shootout, but it never occurred to them to incentivize regulation wins. The refusal to accept the mathematically-correct 3-point option remains an absurdity of Gary Bettman’s NHL, but not even as a tie-breaker? Come on. Anyway, that’s finally fixed.

    And all that said, tie-breaking systems are fine if they involve playoff seedings, but they too are absurd when deciding an actual playoff berth. Teams tied for the last spot should have a play-in game, full stop. To have some crazy accounting system determine it — when they could have an actual game for all the marbles with attendant fan interest, TV coverage, etc. — is infuckingsane on every level.

    Man, this league …

    Bruce, wasn’t that the case for the Oilers first year in the WHA? They were tied with Minnesota for the last playoff spot and then the league decided to have a one game playoff. I dont know if they didn’t have a tiebreaker in place or if they just decided to change the rules on the spot? Maybe you or someone else remembers the details?

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: I have been iterating this for a couple of months now.

    There’s a very good chance that because of this motivation, he’d sign for less than 7 years too.

    But don’t tell OP.

    Wait, we can reiterate opinions over periods of time without being criticized for it?????

    I do think Taylor believes himself when he says he wants to win and will take less but we’ve heard that type of statement countless times over the years with less than correlated outcomes.

    If the player was willing to sign for four years in Edmonton, I’d have much time for that discussion but I’m still not certain trying to fit in another $10M forward is the best path forward for this team.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: I was going to say don’t tell OP then I saw you did.

    I know exactly what all those stats and metrics mean – I also am well aware that they were cherry-picked to fit a narrative.

  50. JimmyV1965 says:

    Munny: About as distant as Marody is from Cave in a footrace.

    Is Cave fast though? I was frankly shocked to see him beat Peterson on that play. I’ve never considered him fast.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Speaking of unsustainable – Nuge’s goose-egg for 5 on 5 goals is unsustainable.

    Tierny has a chart measuring Goals vs. Expected Goal and Nuge is right near the top of that list.

    Unsustainability doesn’t just go one way

  52. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Well, he’s no McDavid or MacKinnon. But he’s also no Marody.

  53. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Neither Cave or Marody are NHL players.
    Beating dead horses.

    I’m sure if he was a Canuck prospect, you wouldn’t be writing off Marody. He has 73 pts in 72 AHL games before his 23rd birthday. It’s foolish to dismiss that kind of production, even if he is slow. Marody will get a shot with some NHL team. If he fails that test, you can write him off as a prospect.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair:
    Neither Cave or Marody are NHL players.
    Beating dead horses.

    but, at the same time, Fracis Perron’s 8 games this year in the AHL should be used as direct evidence of the Canuck’s superior prospect group?

  55. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Wait, we can reiterate opinions over periods of time without being criticized for it?????

    If one iterates an opinion once—publicly—one is essentially asking for it to be criticized, or at the very least disagreed with.

    The more often it is iterated, the more likely this will happen. To not expect this is silly.

    But if no one cares two flying effs about the original person’s opinion, it will likely not be responded to at all.

    For eg., by responding to DSF, you are showing that you care about his opinion being expressed. By repeatedly responding to his opinion (ie criticizing), you show that the care you have is negative, ie for him not to express his opinion. Which, of course, just encourages him.

  56. YKOil says:

    Wilde:
    22 games running Russell or Manning over finding out about Jones and Lagesson, 60 games the remaining resource.

    Would really like Holland to move Manning, trade or to the minors, don’t care. Would rather have Lagesson play.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: If one iterates an opinion once—publicly—one is essentially asking for it to be criticized, or at the very least disagreed with.

    The more often it is iterated, the more likely this will happen. To not expect this is silly.

    But if no one cares two flying effs about the original person’s opinion, it will likely not be responded to at all.

    For eg., by responding to DSF, you are showing that you care about his opinion being expressed.By repeatedly responding to his opinion (ie criticizing), you show that the care you have is negative, ie for him not to express his opinion. Which, of course, just encourages him.

    I’m not talking about criticizing the opinion – I welcome that, I post for discussion.

    I’m talking about being criticized for repeating an opinion.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: Would really like Holland to move Manning, trade or to the minors, don’t care.Would rather have Lagesson play.

    Assuming no more injuries (big assumption), Manning will be re-assigned (will need to hit waivers first, again) when Larsson is activated.

    We saw pretty darn clear evidence of the coach’s preference for Manning over Lagesson with notwithstanding it provided zero information on Lagesson, his next contract or his future with the org.

    Don’t see that changing next time injury trouble abounds.

    Unfortunately.

  59. Wilde says:

    YKOil: Would really like Holland to move Manning, trade or to the minors, don’t care.Would rather have Lagesson play.

    yeah it sucks man but I don’t think they look at depth minutes on an un-deep team as a resource

  60. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not talking about criticizing the opinion – I welcome that, I post for discussion.
    I’m talking about being criticized for repeating an opinion.

    Sorry, I completely mistook your original lead statement. I was having some difficulty sussing out the meaning of your non sequitur.

    In this specific case then…

    I am not a drum beater. Not even in real life. I don’t tell the same stories repeatedly from an arsenal of stories like many do. I’m mostly extemporaneous.

    I repeated my opinion in this instance though, and mentioned your name, because I have directed that opinion to you on multiple occasions and have never had you respond to it or even acknowledge the possibility that we don’t know Hall’s intent and to assume he’s looking for max term is, well, an assumption.

    As far as your comment in general….

    Think of someone you know well re-telling a story you’ve heard a gazillion times before… when they start up with that familiar intro at some point there’s going to be an internal groan.*

    Now think of it being done by someone you don’t know and love, and it’s not a story but an opinion, perhaps a disagreeable one (to you), and it’s not oral but in writing…

    At some point in that gazillion times, it sucks the oxygen out of the metaphorical room…

    The reactions can be…

    –doesn’t this person allow other opinions the space to breathe, y’know once in a while?
    –does the expresser of the opinion think we’re all stupid and don’t remember what he has repeated countless times before?
    –does this person feel the need to control the conversation?
    –is the person desperate for attention (like DSF… and really all of us here in the internet)
    –is this person purposely boring us?
    –why is my time being wasted by something I’ve already heard countless times before?

    etc etc.

    Or not. Not everyone is going to have the same reaction. But constantly repeating the same opinion over and over certainly invites criticism. Be foolish to think otherwise.

    What has you thinking constant repetition is good and something that should be strived for?

    ____________________

    *oral tradition is based on and relies on repetition, so gets a much bigger pass from people.

  61. Pescador says:

    Munny:
    GMB3,

    Any particular reason for the dick shot?

    Defensive much?

    I was reading about NHLe the month Gabe first published it.How about you?

    If you’re recieving unsolicited images of someone’s fal
    Phallus,
    You should probably block that person’s number
    #protip

  62. hunter1909 says:

    Munny: If one iterates an opinion once—publicly—one is essentially asking for it to be criticized, or at the very least disagreed with.

    The more often it is iterated, the more likely this will happen. To not expect this is silly.

    But if no one cares two flying effs about the original person’s opinion, it will likely not be responded to at all.

    For eg., by responding to DSF, you are showing that you care about his opinion being expressed.By repeatedly responding to his opinion (ie criticizing), you show that the care you have is negative, ie for him not to express his opinion. Which, of course, just encourages him.

    Why are you always trying to tell everyone what to think?

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Victoria Oil: Bruce, wasn’t that the case for the Oilers first year in the WHA? They were tied with Minnesota for the last playoff spot and then the league decided to have a one game playoff. I dont know if they didn’t have a tiebreaker in place or if they just decided to change the rules on the spot? Maybe you or someone else remembers the details?

    Yes. The tie-breaker game was, as I imperfectly recall, a late decision when someone realized there was publucity to be had & money to be made. Go figure. It was ordered to be held at a neutral site, which turned out to be Calgary. Not so neutral for the then-Alberta Oilers. I listened to it on the radio but alas, Oilers fell 4-2.

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah…but I was using your money:)

    It’s early but I think this might be Nashville’s year.

    You?

    I won $300 from you the year previous.

    You were using your own money after I used it for a year.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I won $300 from you the year previous.

    You were using your own money after I used it for a year.

    Lol. That’s a good comeback.

  66. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?

    https://theathletic.com/1347222/2019/11/04/lowetide-can-leon-draisaitl-score-more-than-50-goals-this-season/

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah…but I was using your money:)

    It’s early but I think this might be Nashville’s year.

    You?

    Way too early, but I like ARI +1000 to win the Pacific for the regular season right now. Its a good price considering they have EDM at +350 and they have near the same pts% (EDM .700, ARI .651 – edited as previous posted they were tied)

    Goalies are everything in the playoffs. Here’s every team with an all situations .920+ SV% so far:

    Team SV%
    Boston Bruins 93.43
    Arizona Coyotes 92.95
    New York Islanders 92.89
    Anaheim Ducks 92.61
    Vancouver Canucks 92.2
    Edmonton Oilers 92.14
    Pittsburgh Penguins 92.07
    Buffalo Sabres 92.04

    BOS is nutty so far this year.

    I don’t start making playoff futures bets until the All star break when you can get some good prices on under valued teams.

    I made a couple pre-season like $50 on CAR +6000 to win the Cup and ~+4000 to win the East because I knew I’d never see that price again.

    Today CAR is +1800 to win the Cup and +1000 to win the EC (including playoffs)

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Lol. That’s a good comeback.

    🙂

    True story.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    This should be a fun game – more implications than one is used to for a November game with Arizona.

    I assume Mikko starts given Smith had the last two but who knows given how good Smith is. I think it makes sense to keep Smith rested and not lets Mikko get stale.

    Will be interesting to see what happens if Sheahan is read to go. Can’t take Cave out after his last game. Granlund had his best game of the year. Maybe Haas.

  70. Melvis says:

    Munny: Sorry, I completely mistook your original lead statement.I was having some difficulty sussing out the meaning of your non sequitur.

    In thisspecific case then…

    I am not a drum beater.Not even in real life.I don’t tell the same stories repeatedly from an arsenal of stories like many do.I’m mostly extemporaneous.

    I repeated my opinion in this instance though, and mentioned your name, because I have directed that opinion to you on multiple occasions and have never had you respond to it or even acknowledge the possibility that we don’t know Hall’s intent and to assume he’s looking for max term is, well, an assumption.

    As far as your comment in general….

    Think of someone you know well re-telling a story you’ve heard a gazillion times before… when they start up with that familiar intro at some point there’s going to be an internal groan.*

    Now think of it being done by someone you don’t know and love, and it’s not a story but an opinion, perhaps a disagreeable one (to you), and it’s not oral but in writing…

    At some point in that gazillion times, it sucks the oxygen out of the metaphorical room…

    The reactions can be…

    –doesn’t this person allow other opinions the space to breathe, y’know once in a while?
    –does the expresser of the opinion think we’re all stupid and don’t remember what he has repeated countless times before?
    –does this person feel the need to control the conversation?
    –is the person desperate for attention (like DSF… and really all of us here in the internet)
    –is this person purposely boring us?
    –why is my time being wasted by something I’ve already heard countless times before?

    etc etc.

    Or not. Not everyone is going to have the same reaction. But constantly repeating the same opinion over and over certainly invites criticism.Be foolish to think otherwise.

    What has you thinking constant repetition is good and something that should be strived for?

    ____________________

    *oral tradition is based on and relies on repetition, so gets a much bigger pass from people.

    Good post. Let me repeat that. Good post.

  71. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I won $300 from you the year previous.

    You were using your own money after I used it for a year.

    I imagine you bought Irish Whisky with it and then pissed it away 🤗

  72. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Way too early, but I like ARI +1000 to win the Pacific for the regular season right now.Its a good price considering they have EDM at +350 and they have near the same pts% (EDM .700, ARI .651 – edited as previous posted they were tied)

    Goalies are everything in the playoffs.Here’s every team with an all situations .920+ SV% so far:

    TeamSV%
    Boston Bruins93.43
    Arizona Coyotes92.95
    New York Islanders92.89
    Anaheim Ducks92.61
    Vancouver Canucks92.2
    Edmonton Oilers92.14
    Pittsburgh Penguins92.07
    Buffalo Sabres92.04

    BOS is nutty so far this year.

    I don’t start making playoff futures bets until the All star break when you can get some good prices on under valued teams.

    I made a couple pre-season like $50 on CAR +6000 to win the Cup and ~+4000 to win the East because I knew I’d never see that price again.

    Today CAR is +1800 to win the Cup and +1000 to win the EC (including playoffs)

    Yeah, Arizona was my pre season pick to surprise and they’re delivering…second in the league at GA/G just behind Boston.
    Although I thought Phil Kessel might have a bigger influence on their scoring.

  73. tileguy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Assuming no more injuries (big assumption), Manning will be re-assigned (will need to hit waivers first, again) when Larsson is activated.

    We saw pretty darn clear evidence of the coach’s preference for Manning over Lagesson with notwithstanding it provided zero information on Lagesson, his next contract or his future with the org.

    Don’t see that changing next time injury trouble abounds.

    Unfortunately.

    Perhaps it is one last showcasing for the waiver wire before being sent down?

  74. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: Will be interesting to see what happens if Sheahan is read to go. Can’t take Cave out after his last game. Granlund had his best game of the year. Maybe Haas.

    Yes, I presume it would be Haas.

  75. London Jon says:

    texmex:
    Looch suspended two games!!

    A better punishment would have been to make them play him 20 minutes a night for two games

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Stauffer:

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson
    Neal-RNH-Kassian
    Khaira-Granlund-Gagner
    Haas-Cave-P Russell

    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Persson
    Russell-Benning

    Koskinen in starters net

    ——————————-

    No Sheahan yet – Haas and Granlund switch places, other wise, same lines/pairings.

    Agree with the Mikko start – keep Smith rested and ensure Mikko doesn’t get rusty.

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