2019-20 Game 16: Coyotes at Oilers

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers are 2-0-0 against the Pacific Division, wins over the Vancouver Canucks and Los Angeles Kings. The team needs to deliver handsomely against the division this season, and must be miles better than last year’s 12-15-2 against the Pacific. Tonight’s game won’t be easy, the Coyotes might be better than their 8-4-1 record implies.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Lowetide:  Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
  • New Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors coaching staff continues to mold unheralded players into legit NHL prospects.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Mailbag: Fixing the forward depth, slotting the big three, a Puljujarvi trade and more
  • Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
  • Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
  • Lowetide: Sheahan hurt, Oilers in need of a two-way centre; some candidates emerging
  • Jonathan Willis: Handicapping the chase for the Calder after the first month of the 2019-20 NHL season
  • Jonathan Willis: Unproductive Oilers forwards are in danger of losing their jobs — and soon
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the current state of the Edmonton Oilers goaltending.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
  • Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
  • Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS AFTER 16 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 6-10-0, 10 points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in 2016: 9-6-1, 19 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2017: 6-9-1, 13 points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in 2018: 8-7-1, 17 points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in 2019: 10-4-1, 21 points; goal differential +6

This is an amazing run, but are the Oilers close to being this good? The Oilers are third in points and No. 15 in five-on-five goal differential, but are No. 25 in five-on-five Corsi. Which number do they most closely resemble?

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in November 2016: 0-1-1, one point; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in November 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in November 2018: 2-0-0, two points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in November 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1

Last year’s team used those two victories build on an October that landed two games above .500 Bettman, this year’s team can dream of greater things. The 2016-17 edition finished 12 games over .500 Bettman (47-35-9) and that’s a solid goal for this year’s team. Starting the season with a +5 Bettman in October is a grand beginning.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1)
  • At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-0-0, 2 points after one game

Edmonton has an interesting trio of teams coming to town this week, I bet on a win tonight, but in truth it’s more like a pick ’em. The Coyotes have a similar record to the Oilers, but also have some of those cool underlying numbers some of us hold in high regard. This won’t be an easy game. Conor Garland will score, OEL will earn our respect, probably Clayton Keller does something amazing.

OILERS 2019-20

EVEN STRENGTH POINTS PER 60 (FWDS)

  1. Leon Draisaitl 4.14
  2. Connor McDavid 2.73
  3. Colby Cave 2.34
  4. Zack Kassian 2.27
  5. James Neal 1.47
  6. Alex Chiasson 1.29
  7. Nuge 1.15
  8. Tomas Jurco 1.14
  9. Joakim Nygard 1.09
  10. Sam Gagner 1.00
  11. Gaetan Haas 0.91
  12. Markus Granlund 0.49
  13. Jujhar Khaira 0.36

Well there are finally 13 forwards who scored a point at even strength so we can post a “list” for the first time this year. Draisaitl is redonk, McDavid about where he should be and the rest are either in small sampleville or crawling from the wreckage. It’s a start. All numbers NST.

CORSI FOR FIVE-ON-FIVE (DEFENSE)

  1. Brandon Manning 50.83
  2. Ethan Bear 49.79
  3. Darnell Nurse 47.74
  4. Oscar Klefbom 47.36
  5. Joel Persson 47.32
  6. Matt Benning 47.12
  7. Kris Russell 45.32
  8. Adam Larsson 31.58

Bear the rookie really has been a revelation, Manning has also played well in a depth role. The rest are all huddled in the same area, then Russell who has some kind of magnet in these possession metrics that kills his totals.

PUCK IQ (DFF V. ELITES DEFENSE)

  1. Darnell Nurse 45.40 (Rel 7.10) 113 mins
  2. Joel Persson 44.10 (Rel 6.40) 34 mins
  3. Ethan Bear 43.70 (Rel 4.40) 114 mins
  4. Oscar Klefbom 41.10 (Rel -0.40) 89 mins
  5. Brandon Manning 40.60 (Rel -2.50) 16 mins
  6. Kris Russell 35.80 (Rel -8.00) 68 mins
  7. Matt Benning 33.10 (Rel -9.90) 45 mins
  8. Adam Larsson 5.60 (Rel -42.40) 6 mins

This is all Puck IQ versus elites and is miles too soon to quote as gospel. We can take some things away, including usage. It’s strange to see Klefbom playing so little (compared to Nurse-Bear) against elites, wonder if that changes when Larsson returns.

PUCK IQ (DFF V. ELITES FWD)

  1. Zack Kassian 51.60 (Rel. 17.20) 96 mins
  2. Leon Draisaitl 49.40 (Rel. 14.70) 104 mins
  3. Connor McDavid 47.90 (Rel. 11.40) 105 mins
  4. Alex Chiasson 47.20 (Rel. 7.20) 37 mins
  5. Tomas Jurco 46.50 (Rel. 7.90) 29 mins
  6. Markus Granlund 45.50 (Rel. 4.70) 31 mins
  7. James Neal 42.50 (Rel. 1.50) 61 mins
  8. Gaetan Haas 42.50 (Rel. 4.60) 12 mins
  9. Nuge 42.30 (Rel. 1.30) 64 mins
  10. Colby Cave 32.20 (Rel. -4.30) 12 mins
  11. Josh Archibald 30.30 (Rel. -15.70) 21 mins
  12. Patrick Russell 28.50 (Rel. -15.00) 39 mins
  13. Riley Sheahan 23.10 (Rel. -24.20) 37 mins
  14. Jujhar Khaira 20.60 (Rel. -26.40) 52 mins
  15. Sam Gagner 20.30 (Rel. -30.10) 16 mins
  16. Joakim Nygard 12.70 (Rel. -33.60) 12 mins

Some interesting items here, including the No. 1 line playing major minutes and outplaying the rest of the roster (rel). The line has also been playing in good fortune (6-0 goals versus elites).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We hit the ice in full stride this morning at 10, TSN1260. We start with Reid Fowler from Draft Kings, we’ll chat NFL weekend and the Monday nighter. Jason Gregor pops in to talk Eskimos, Redblacks and Rick Campbell, plus the Oilers game tonight. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Ice Sage

A Monday game in November vs. a historically middling team is somehow YUGE. Ah, the joy of sport!
Goil

Professor Q

I love the doubters (mostly Toronto fans) regarding Draisaitl and his “unsustainable shooting percentage”.

If he maintains playing like he has, having a Shooting % of 20-25% isn’t really “unsustainable”, especially not if he’s been doing this for the past 3 years.

You develop a pattern, right? And the how is fairly important, too, I think. He’s just that good.

rickithebear

As I pointed out last game highlight worthy shot against vs Pit.
19/20 were closed.
These extreme closed shot % can occur.

Since DFF/corsi does not differentiate for forced misses or open/closed shot ratio from Dmen.
It has a sub 48% ability to identify the elite low% open HD dmen. (The best defencemen)

Evga/ corsi has the highest capture rate (approx 85%) from current league supplied data.

Open shot density/corsi is 100% capture rate.

rickithebear

Professor Q:
I love the doubters (mostly Toronto fans) regarding Draisaitl and his “unsustainable shooting percentage”.

If he maintains playing like he has, having a Shooting % of 20-25% isn’t really “unsustainable”, especially not if he’s been doing this for the past 3 years.

You develop a pattern, right? And the how is fairly important, too, I think. He’s just that good.

Yes you are correct.
Individual players have their own mean based on open HD targeting.

Thanks for the argument against PDO.

jp

rickithebear: Yes you are correct.
Individual players have their own mean based on open HD targeting.

Thanks for the argument against PDO.

Why then don’t players like Russell have reproducibly higher than average PDO and on ice SV%?

It’s been shown that defensemen don’t control on ice SV%.

rickithebear

It was nice to see video of Button and Tor drive crew say Draisaitl is in top 5 with Crosby, McKinnon, Mcdavid.
Then them saying Mathews is not at his level.

Andy Dufresne

LT, Thank You very much for all the data you provide day in and day out.

When it comes to DFF

Darnell Nurse 45.40 (Rel 7.10) 113 mins
Joel Persson 44.10 (Rel 6.40) 34 mins
Ethan Bear 43.70 (Rel 4.40) 114 mins
Oscar Klefbom 41.10 (Rel -0.40) 89 mins
Brandon Manning 40.60 (Rel -2.50) 16 mins
Kris Russell 35.80 (Rel -8.00) 68 mins
Matt Benning 33.10 (Rel -9.90) 45 mins
Adam Larsson 5.60 (Rel -42.40) 6 mins

” It’s strange to see Klefbom playing so little (compared to Nurse-Bear) against el. ites, wonder if that changes when Larsson returns.”

Like you say, small sample size, but man the evidence is mounting that well rounded agile defenmen are gaining the Coaches favour/confidence (TOI vs Elites) in that:

1) They generate more offense (dangerous shots for)

and

2) They have an ability to exit the defensive zone realtively quickly thereby limiting dangerous shots against (relative to less agile dmen like Larsson and Russell)

To LT and/or the group. How would analytics approach the process of determining optimal pairings?

In a perfect world, you want 6 Victor Hedmans, but they are rare.

So are we moving to / in an era where 6 more agile/offenisve dmen is the desired goal? Where size is either irrelevant or at least less relevant?

Did the Oilers management think that Broberg had both size and agility and offenive upside, or alternatively are they still looking for some traditional defensive defensemen?

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Drai is 6th in scoring in the league since 2016…

– I’m going to try an give a stab at pushing-back on the concept of “regression” There is the actual meaning when a stats or math or finance person conducts regression and its vernacular use

– i think most people use regression to mean: “so and so is hot, he’s going to “regress. Or “the team’s play is unsustainable, they are due for a losing streak because regression”

– That’s fine if one wants to think these these things, and attribute it to “regression”, but that’s not mathematically what it means: you can’t take past-performance and proclaim that going forward it has to change because the performance in the past is higher than “expected”

– Actual regression (I’m a finance guy, so I will stick with that): is to try and figure out the value of a stock, based on the relationship between the current share price, and a bunch of measurable and quantifiable parameter, growth using a Capital Asset Model

– I would suggest that some have with the Oilers and how good they are and why its going to crash vs what they expected might be 2-fold:

1) The concept of “regression” doesn’t mean that the relationship between a bunch of factors (like expected scoring, or PDO, or secondary scoring, corsi etc and team point totals is binary (i.e. what goes up must go down and vice-versa). All these numbers can do is help provide a relationship between them and actual results. In reality, when we do regression, we accept that these relationships produce a number of actual outcomes. (so better or worse, just look at a scatter plot)

2) Only looking backwards do we look at the numbers and make projections forwards. The expected relationship between total points and all these things we hold dear are tenuous

– Taking the Oil “point total” and using a stock analogy. I think that many would think that “Stock X has really moved up a lot, it’s due for a “correction”.

– This isn’t the case. Take Amazon: for years its performance has defied most consensus. That’s because its impossible to model all the variables, and we don’t know exactly how it’s going to perform, or what growth opportunities there are, or market sentiment, regulations, etc

– I’m going to give up a great insight into the investing business: ” once you learn that the talking heads and articles and TV shows and analysts all talk about stock performance based on what happened in the past, you are going to be much better off” For fun, listen to the business news, and over time you realize its virtually all spin, revising what’s happened.

– Taking it back to the Oilers: there is so much randomness in hockey, and luck. Maybe the Oilers will lose a bunch in a row and people can say “regression is a bitch”. Or maybe we will lose one game 8-1 and the 52 save performance that lifted up Smith’s SV% 20 points will drop it a lot

– We dont’ know what a team that has 2 of the top-6 point getters in the league can do, nor do we know what effect that has on the rest of the team.

– Anyway, I veered off topic I think, went all “Darkness” on this.

– Take away this: “regression does not mean that the Oil are going to be really bad to average out a 88 point team, because they are over-achieving that”

– But if they do: its’ not because of “regression” its because they don’t play as good, or the other teams play better, and don’t get as lucky, etc. A lot of results for this team are possible based on a theoretical multi-linear regression analysis.

Reja

I say It’s 50-50 who starts Kosh or a hot Smith against his old team. In Tippett we trust.

Coiler

Professor Q:
I love the doubters (mostly Toronto fans) regarding Draisaitl and his “unsustainable shooting percentage”.

If he maintains playing like he has, having a Shooting % of 20-25% isn’t really “unsustainable”, especially not if he’s been doing this for the past 3 years.

You develop a pattern, right? And the how is fairly important, too, I think. He’s just that good.

Bah! Toronto fans are the worst. I hear them day in and day out jumping on and off their little merry bandwagon. Very few of them know hockey–and even those that do are easily susceptible to the media here (I happen to live in Toronto).

Funny thing, until this recent win over the weekend over Philly, the media and these Maple Leaf fans were in a tailspin. Trying to pin blame on the club’s fortunes on the coach, the GM, the players, etc…
I went back and forth in a friendly manner with some of these fans in my office and stunned the group into silence when I said that maybe players like Marner and Matthews should take their talents and go elsewhere to play as they were wasting their time playing for the Leafs. These were the same guys who gave me the gears about the McDavid needing to leave the Oilers all of last year for the same reasons.

Like I said, it stunned the room into silence.

So take what they say about any club or any player with a serious grain of salt. Draisatl is just fine and there is no reason to think he can’t replicate his stats from last season.

Go Oilers.

LadiesloveSmid

Athanasiou 5P and -18 to start the year. Running an 816 PDO.

Can Kenny package JP for AA while he’s riding a string of bad luck?

judgedrude

We know this is a math blog and LT doesn’t play favourites (he does), but still…

Nuge.

Reja

rickithebear:
It was nice to see video of Button and Tor drive crew say Draisaitl is in top 5 with Crosby, McKinnon, Mcdavid.
Then them saying Mathews is not at his level.

What’s up with Button all of a sudden being a cheerleader for the Oilers it’s almost creeping me out. Seriously I think Button and Holland are buddies from way back that’s the only thing that would explain his about face on the Kevin Lowe Oilers.

Washingtron

Hey kinger, really dug that post.

I’ll add to your advice about finance talking heads just using spin based on past performance. Sports media do the same thing (which I suppose is the broader point of your post.). How many times have we heard “actually, I knew the blues weren’t as bad as their record last year” despite the blues being universally trashed for the first half of the season. Or “I always figured that player was due for a breakout” or “I always had the feeling he wasn’t going to sign there” despite reporting it was looking good the day before.

I almost sprain my eyes rolling them every time one of these guys pumps his own tires.

rickithebear

jp: Why then don’t players like Russell have reproducibly higher than average PDO and on ice SV%?

It’s been shown that defensemen don’t control on ice SV%.

Did you take sudo science in humanities?

They only analyze to group level instead of the individual.
Low resolution analysis.

PDO is a group mean.

Dmen have their own individual baseline save% based on reducing Corsi penetration (shot%) and openness (blocks + misses + closed shots)

EVGA is superior to DF because it captures misses and closed shot affect.

rickithebear

LadiesloveSmid:
Athanasiou 5P and -18 to start the year. Running an 816 PDO.

Can Kenny package JP for AA while he’s riding a string of bad luck?

Yzerman!

Not likely.

Andy Dufresne

At home. Last change. I wonder how many players on the Coyotes Tippett has an intimate knowledge of?

The Coyotes appeared as the sixth-hottest team in the NHL on NBC Sports’ power rankings last Tuesday, as put together by Adam Gretz.

Three of the Coyotes’ Pacific Division rivals — the Oilers, Canucks and Knights — were ranked 10th, 11th and 13th, repsectively.

It should be noted that the list was put together before the Coyotes’ lost at home on Wednesday night to the Montreal Canadiens. Here’s what Gretz wrote:

“After losing their first two games (and only scoring one goal) the Coyotes are 6-1-1 in their last eight and are averaging more than four goals per game.

Entering Thursday, the Coyotes had allowed the second-fewest goals per game in the NHL, bested only by the Bruins. Neither their power play or PK ranked among the top 10 in the league, and their point percentage ranks 11th in the league.”

Sounds like we are the UnderDog tonight.

Can we play Tippett hockey and win a 2-1 game???

godot10

Professor Q:
I love the doubters (mostly Toronto fans) regarding Draisaitl and his “unsustainable shooting percentage”.

If he maintains playing like he has, having a Shooting % of 20-25% isn’t really “unsustainable”, especially not if he’s been doing this for the past 3 years.

You develop a pattern, right? And the how is fairly important, too, I think. He’s just that good.

Draisaitl doesn’t waste his shots or game Corsi. If he has a good shot he will take it, and if he doesn’t because he is an elite playmaker and passer, he will pass it. If your shooting percentage is 20% for an extended period of time, like seasons, then one has an elite brain to go along with elite skill.

McDavid has to learn to NOT pass up good shots. Crosby had to learn this too. Gretzky was greedy for goals (and greedy for points), even if it was an empty net, or even if it would not be a pretty one.

godot10

Andy Dufresne:
LT, Thank You very much for all the data you provide day in and day out.

When it comes to DFF

Darnell Nurse 45.40 (Rel 7.10) 113 mins
Joel Persson 44.10 (Rel 6.40) 34 mins
Ethan Bear 43.70 (Rel 4.40) 114 mins
Oscar Klefbom 41.10 (Rel -0.40) 89 mins
Brandon Manning 40.60 (Rel -2.50) 16 mins
Kris Russell 35.80 (Rel -8.00) 68 mins
Matt Benning 33.10 (Rel -9.90) 45 mins
Adam Larsson 5.60 (Rel -42.40) 6 mins

” It’s strange to see Klefbom playing so little (compared to Nurse-Bear) against el. ites, wonder if that changes when Larsson returns.”

Like you say, small sample size, but man the evidence is mounting that well rounded agile defenmen are gaining the Coaches favour/confidence (TOI vs Elites) in that:

1)They generate more offense (dangerous shots for)

and

2)They have an ability to exit the defensive zone realtively quickly thereby limiting dangerous shots against (relative to less agile dmen like Larsson and Russell)

To LT and/or the group. How would analytics approach the process of determining optimal pairings?

In a perfect world, you want 6 Victor Hedmans, but they are rare.

So are we moving to / in an era where 6 more agile/offenisve dmen is the desired goal? Where size is either irrelevant or at least less relevant?

Did the Oilers management think that Broberg had both size and agility and offenive upside, or alternatively are they still looking for some traditional defensive defensemen?

Klefbom is getting the Pieterangelo treatment. He impacts the game more if he doesn’t have the absolute toughest minutes. St. Louis won the cup when Parayko could take the toughest minutes against the elites, and Pieterangelo became free to wreak havoc.

Andy Dufresne

rickithebear: Did you take sudo science in humanities?

They only analyze to group level instead of the individual.
Low resolution analysis.

PDO is a group mean.

PDO is a group mean???

I’d say

RTB is a group mean. 🙂

” Did you take sudo science in humanities?” ….Ouch!

Glad to see you’re feeling better Ricki. 🙂

Keep On Keepin On!

Andy Dufresne

godot10: Klefbom is getting the Pieterangelo treatment.He impacts the game more if he doesn’t have the absolute toughest minutes.St. Louis won the cup when Parayko could take the toughest minutes against the elites, and Pieterangelo became free to wreak havoc.

There really is somehting to the Klefbom Pieterangleo comparison imo.

Andy Dufresne

Reja:
I say It’s 50-50 who starts Kosh or a hot Smith against his old team. In Tippett we trust.

Nice to be a position where whoever he chooses, you cant say he was wrong.

Andy Dufresne

Reja: What’s up with Button all of a sudden being a cheerleader for the Oilers it’s almost creeping me out. Seriously I think Button and Holland are buddies from way back that’s the only thing that would explain his about face on the Kevin Lowe Oilers.

It is strange. And that is pretty good guess as to why.

Side

godot10: Draisaitl doesn’t waste his shots or game Corsi.If he has a good shot he will take it, and if he doesn’t because he is an elite playmaker and passer, he will pass it.If your shooting percentage is 20% for an extended period of time, like seasons, then one has an elite brain to go along with elite skill.

McDavid has to learn to NOT pass up good shots.Crosby had to learn this too.Gretzky was greedy for goals (and greedy for points), even if it was an empty net, or even if it would not be a pretty one.

Agreed. I believe it was last game on the PP, not a lot was happening but McDavid had the puck, the PKers collapsed infront of the net, McDavid circled around the front of the net with traffic between him and the goalie anndddd… dished a pass to Klefbom at the blueline, who fired it onto the net for an easy save.

Just put it on net, McDavid!

Side

Sportsnet headline:

“Flames’ Mangiapane capitalizes on expanded role in Lucic’s absence”

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO

OriginalPouzar

This should be a fun game – more implications than one is used to for a November game with Arizona.

I assume Mikko starts given Smith had the last two but who knows given how good Smith is. I think it makes sense to keep Smith rested and not lets Mikko get stale.

Will be interesting to see what happens if Sheahan is read to go. Can’t take Cave out after his last game. Granlund had his best game of the year. Maybe Haas.

Reja

Andy Dufresne:
At home. Last change. I wonder how many players on the Coyotes Tippett has an intimate knowledge of?

The Coyotes appeared as the sixth-hottest team in the NHL on NBC Sports’ power rankings last Tuesday, as put together by Adam Gretz.

Three of the Coyotes’ Pacific Division rivals — the Oilers, Canucks and Knights — were ranked 10th, 11th and 13th, repsectively.

It should be noted that the list was put together before the Coyotes’ lost at home on Wednesday night to the Montreal Canadiens. Here’s what Gretz wrote:

“After losing their first two games (and only scoring one goal) the Coyotes are 6-1-1 in their last eight and are averaging more than four goals per game.

Entering Thursday, the Coyotes had allowed the second-fewest goals per game in the NHL, bested only by the Bruins. Neither their power play or PK ranked among the top 10 in the league, and their point percentage ranks 11th in the league.”

Sounds like we are the UnderDog tonight.

Can we play Tippett hockey and win a 2-1 game???

Last year we had over half the team that was not engaged through no fault of their own. Tippett’s trying to get everyone engaged PK etc. I really think the vocal veteran leadership of Smith, Neal and also Chase is greatly unstated on this blog because you can’t measure the importance of experience and team unity. Yes we can win 2-1 tonight but let’s bust out and win 6-2 and then maybe we won’t have to listen to the bragging of the third rate prospects from a team that’s never won anything.

Andy Dufresne

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Drai is 6th in scoring in the league since 2016…

– I’m going to try an give a stab at pushing-back on the concept of “regression”There is the actual meaning when a stats or math or finance person conducts regression and its vernacular use

– i think most people use regression to mean: “so and so is hot, he’s going to “regress.Or “the team’s play is unsustainable, they are due for a losing streak because regression”

– That’s fine if one wants to think these these things, and attribute it to “regression”, but that’s not mathematically what it means: you can’t take past-performance and proclaim that going forward it has to change because the performance in the past is higher than “expected”

– Actual regression (I’m a finance guy, so I will stick with that): is to try and figure out the value of a stock, based on the relationship between the current share price, and a bunch of measurable and quantifiable parameter, growth using a Capital Asset Model

– I would suggest that some have with the Oilers and how good they are and why its going to crash vs what they expected might be 2-fold:

1) The concept of “regression” doesn’t mean that the relationship between a bunch of factors (like expected scoring, or PDO, or secondary scoring, corsi etc and team point totals is binary (i.e. what goes up must go down and vice-versa). All these numbers can do is help provide a relationship between them and actual results.In reality, when we do regression, we accept that these relationships produce a number of actual outcomes. (so better or worse, just look at a scatter plot)

2) Only looking backwards do we look at the numbers and make projections forwards.The expected relationship between total points and all these things we hold dear are tenuous

– Taking the Oil “point total” and using a stock analogy.I think that many would think that “Stock X has really moved up a lot, it’s due for a “correction”.

– This isn’t the case.Take Amazon: for years its performance has defied most consensus.That’s because its impossible to model all the variables, and we don’t know exactly how it’s going to perform, or what growth opportunities there are, or market sentiment, regulations, etc

– I’m going to give up a great insight into the investing business: ” once you learn that the talking heads and articles and TV shows and analysts all talk about stock performance based on what happened in the past, you are going to be much better off”For fun, listen to the business news, and over time you realize its virtually all spin, revising what’s happened.

– Taking it back to the Oilers: there is so much randomness in hockey, and luck.Maybe the Oilers will lose a bunch in a row and people can say “regression is a bitch”.Or maybe we will lose one game 8-1 and the 52 save performance that lifted up Smith’s SV% 20 points will drop it a lot

– We dont’ know what a team that has 2 of the top-6 point getters in the league can do, nor do we know what effect that has on the rest of the team.

– Anyway, I veered off topic I think, went all “Darkness” on this.

– Take away this: “regression does not mean that the Oil are going to be really bad to average out a 88 point team, because they are over-achieving that”

– But if they do: its’ not because of “regression” its because they don’t play as good, or the other teams play better,and don’t get as lucky, etc.A lot of results for this team are possible based on a theoretical multi-linear regression analysis.

+1 Theres always alot of “noise” out there.

To carry on the analogy:

If players can be viewed as individual stocks, all the players being on one team can be viewed as a group of stocks all being traded on the same exchange.

Individual players performance will rise and fall based on set of measurable performance data (like a stock). BUT the perfomance of the team can rise and fall due mostly to a different set of conditions ( like an exchange).

As a result, its multi dimensional, has many moving parts, involves timing, tends to defy prediction, and has a great deal of luck / randomness associated with it imo.

Buy and hold is like draft and develop. Its boring, but has a higher percentage chance of succeeding.

McNuge93

Andy Dufresne: Nice to be a position where whoever he chooses, you cant say he was wrong.

I would stick to the plan. Smith had two consecutive starts so switch to Koski tonight.

PennersPancakes

Reja: Yes we can win 2-1 tonight but let’s bust out and win 6-2 and then maybe we won’t have to listen to the bragging of the third rate prospects from a team that’s never won anything.

Oh Captain! My Captain!

Side

OriginalPouzar:
This should be a fun game – more implications than one is used to for a November game with Arizona.

I assume Mikko starts given Smith had the last two but who knows given how good Smith is. I think it makes sense to keep Smith rested and not lets Mikko get stale.

Will be interesting to see what happens if Sheahan is read to go. Can’t take Cave out after his last game. Granlund had his best game of the year. Maybe Haas.

I believe coach diverged from his plan before to play Smith in a building he performed well in historically.

I wonder if Smith gets the start tonight against a former team of his.

Andy Dufresne

OriginalPouzar:
This should be a fun game – more implications than one is used to for a November game with Arizona.

I assume Mikko starts given Smith had the last two but who knows given how good Smith is. I think it makes sense to keep Smith rested and not lets Mikko get stale.

Will be interesting to see what happens if Sheahan is read to go. Can’t take Cave out after his last game. Granlund had his best game of the year. Maybe Haas.

All good points.

With 53 shots in the last game its like Smith had the equivalent of the last 3 games.

Wonder Llama

rickithebear: Did you take sudo science in humanities?

I have a degree in Sussudio Science.

We take nothing at face value.

ArmchairGM

LadiesloveSmid:
Athanasiou 5P and -18 to start the year. Running an 816 PDO.

Can Kenny package JP for AA while he’s riding a string of bad luck?

That would be nice. I wonder what else would have to go to make that happen?

Keep in mind, however, that Athanasiou is not necessarily the 30-goal guy we saw last year, but because of that season his price will be inflated beyond his true value. What is his true value?

In the 2.5 seasons prior to his “breakout” year (which may have just been a “flash in the pan” year), his NHL P/GP were 0.38, 0.45 and 0.46. He then spiked up to 0.71 but has dropped back to 0.38 again this year. But here’s the most worrisome stat: in his 20-year-old season in the AHL he scored just 0.58 P/GP! Then as a 21-year-old he spent 26 games in the AHL and scored at 0.62 P/GP – barely any improvement. Even his junior numbers are meh until his draft+2 year.

So it looks like you’re getting a 35-40 point winger who isn’t very good defensively. And the fact that his name is coming up again tells me that Yzerman knows this and wants to sell high on the strength of his 30-goal season. Still, the size, speed, puck handling and shooting package is intriguing for sure.

Reja

OriginalPouzar:
This should be a fun game – more implications than one is used to for a November game with Arizona.

I assume Mikko starts given Smith had the last two but who knows given how good Smith is. I think it makes sense to keep Smith rested and not lets Mikko get stale.

Will be interesting to see what happens if Sheahan is read to go. Can’t take Cave out after his last game. Granlund had his best game of the year. Maybe Haas.

I can definitely see Sheahan not playing tonight and getting a couple more days to get healthy.

JimmyV1965

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Drai is 6th in scoring in the league since 2016…

– I’m going to try an give a stab at pushing-back on the concept of “regression”There is the actual meaning when a stats or math or finance person conducts regression and its vernacular use

– i think most people use regression to mean: “so and so is hot, he’s going to “regress.Or “the team’s play is unsustainable, they are due for a losing streak because regression”

– That’s fine if one wants to think these these things, and attribute it to “regression”, but that’s not mathematically what it means: you can’t take past-performance and proclaim that going forward it has to change because the performance in the past is higher than “expected”

– Actual regression (I’m a finance guy, so I will stick with that): is to try and figure out the value of a stock, based on the relationship between the current share price, and a bunch of measurable and quantifiable parameter, growth using a Capital Asset Model

– I would suggest that some have with the Oilers and how good they are and why its going to crash vs what they expected might be 2-fold:

1) The concept of “regression” doesn’t mean that the relationship between a bunch of factors (like expected scoring, or PDO, or secondary scoring, corsi etc and team point totals is binary (i.e. what goes up must go down and vice-versa). All these numbers can do is help provide a relationship between them and actual results.In reality, when we do regression, we accept that these relationships produce a number of actual outcomes. (so better or worse, just look at a scatter plot)

2) Only looking backwards do we look at the numbers and make projections forwards.The expected relationship between total points and all these things we hold dear are tenuous

– Taking the Oil “point total” and using a stock analogy.I think that many would think that “Stock X has really moved up a lot, it’s due for a “correction”.

– This isn’t the case.Take Amazon: for years its performance has defied most consensus.That’s because its impossible to model all the variables, and we don’t know exactly how it’s going to perform, or what growth opportunities there are, or market sentiment, regulations, etc

– I’m going to give up a great insight into the investing business: ” once you learn that the talking heads and articles and TV shows and analysts all talk about stock performance based on what happened in the past, you are going to be much better off”For fun, listen to the business news, and over time you realize its virtually all spin, revising what’s happened.

– Taking it back to the Oilers: there is so much randomness in hockey, and luck.Maybe the Oilers will lose a bunch in a row and people can say “regression is a bitch”.Or maybe we will lose one game 8-1 and the 52 save performance that lifted up Smith’s SV% 20 points will drop it a lot

– We dont’ know what a team that has 2 of the top-6 point getters in the league can do, nor do we know what effect that has on the rest of the team.

– Anyway, I veered off topic I think, went all “Darkness” on this.

– Take away this: “regression does not mean that the Oil are going to be really bad to average out a 88 point team, because they are over-achieving that”

– But if they do: its’ not because of “regression” its because they don’t play as good, or the other teams play better,and don’t get as lucky, etc.A lot of results for this team are possible based on a theoretical multi-linear regression analysis.

Excellent, excellent post. Just one question. Are there not many, many more variables at play when we’re looking at stock prices compared to NHL team points? Ate there not a lot more unknowns as well? Really really interesting post though.

frjohnk

Wonder Llama: I have a degree in Sussudio Science

Not sure if it counts, but I hit puberty the same exact time I watched Weird Science.

OriginalPouzar

I wonder what the top lines metrics would have looked like against elites prior to the PIT game where they got absolutely caved by the Crosby line?

We speak alot about regression to the mean and unsustainability and how it will lead to a reduction in success when it happen.

At the same time, the “regression to the mean” and unsustainability will work with respect to the current negatives as well.

Tierney had some charts out yesterday regarding goals vs. expected goals and, at the top of the list, Ryan Nugent Hopkins – he will start to produce more at 5 on 5.

Depth scoring in general – their goal shares is like 10% which pales in comparison to their possession metrics and expected goal metrics which are better predictors (says one WG) of future goal share.

There will be regression both ways.

jp

rickithebear: Did you take sudo science in humanities?

They only analyze to group level instead of the individual.
Low resolution analysis.

PDO is a group mean.

Dmen have their own individual baseline save% based on reducing Corsi penetration (shot%) and openness (blocks + misses + closed shots)

EVGA is superior to DF because it captures misses and closed shot affect.

No I took science, from science departments. And I work in science as my career. Not that that should matter.

You should read this article: https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

It looks at on ice SV% for individual defensemen (relative to team performance to remove goalie effects) across seasons. On ice SV% for a defenseman is not reproducible. There is no correlation from one season to the next, arguing it isn’t something defensemen are impacting with their closed shot effects (or lack thereof).

You repeating that defensemen have their own baseline SV% doesn’t make it true.

EVGA is great but it’s heavily dependent on teammates and goalie, plus it’s always going to suffer from small sample size fluctuations relative to the various shot based metrics.

Kinger_Oil.redux

Andy Dufresne,

– Not to conflate Amazon with the Oilers: but the “resistance” is similar. Amazon’s analysts said they weren’t making any margin, then they said books isn’t a big enough business, then they said they can’t offer Cloud services because they will get clobbered, then they weren’t going to get into food because it’s too low margin” All Amazon did was win, despite the analysts. Now Buffet says he wishes he invested in Amazon a long time ago (but he didn’t like tech companies)

– I really don’t know if the Oilers are an elite team, but my prediction was based on an outcome that I thought was plausible. I wish I had invested in Amazon, when I read that they had the potential to change commerce, but instead I listened to the analysts. When the Oiler win, lots of numbers get pulled up to say: “well this isn’t sustainable, this can’t continue”, etc.

– They keep moving the goal-posts on the Oilers based on some things that “aren’t sustainable”. Then one day Amazon became the largest company in the world, the best (and many of the same “objections” still hold true)

– But then Conner doesn’t score and we win, or we get secondary scoring, or our D step up

– So just in case, hop on the Oiler bus a little, take the “pundits” and their backwards looking stats being used to “prove” the future with grains of salt…

– If the Oilers are really good at end of year: we will all be able to point to a narrative to explain why they have over 100 points. If not, some will cherish the “see I told you so”

GOILERS!

OriginalPouzar

Mike Smith named one of the three stars for the week.

Now, take a breather Mike as Mikko takes the net tonight (presumably)!

Reja

frjohnk: Not sure if it counts, but I hit puberty the same exact time I watched Weird Science.

The famous Raquel-Welch and then Farrah-Fawcett posters Bada Bing…

OriginalPouzar

As per Stauffer:

Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson
Neal-RNH-Kassian
Khaira-Granlund-Gagner
Haas-Cave-P Russell

Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Persson
Russell-Benning

Koskinen in starters net

——————————-

No Sheahan yet – Haas and Granlund switch places, other wise, same lines/pairings.

Agree with the Mikko start – keep Smith rested and ensure Mikko doesn’t get rusty.

geowal

The Blender is out

N64

rickithebear: Did you take sudo science in humanities?

~ The humanities guys run the world. Every Linux admin knows never give them sudo ~

ArmchairGM

Talk of acquiring a 3C again yesterday… here’s what I think the cost would be

Staal’s name comes up frequently, I endorse him as a target. He is signed through 2020-21 at a reasonable rate of $3.25M. I don’t think MN is looking to move him as he is their 2C right now, and they don’t have anybody ready to step up that I can see. Still, MN fans who are looking at renewing their roster estimate his value at a 2nd round pick, possibly with a prospect attached. In other words, roughly what I think Matt Benning is worth, although I don’t think the Wild have much interest in Benning. But if a 3-way could be arranged…?

Another name I see sometimes is Nick Bjugstad. Good news and bad news situation, here’s the good: PIT will need to re-sign Galchenyuk, Murray and Schultz this summer and they’ll likely give Bjugstad away for next to nothing. Say a 4th round pick. Bad news is that they’ll want to get rid of the cap hit entirely, meaning they won’t want to retain or take any cap back. He’s signed for $4.1M through 2020-21, just like Staal. This might be a summer deal, as the Pens don’t have any major cap issues this year.

The alternative (and some of you won’t like this), is to target wingers instead, and run unicorns. I know there’s some resistance to having Nuge be the 3C, but it could work out quite well for the team. If Tippett rolls the 1st 3 lines for ~15 minutes each (or very close splits at least), it would serve to reduce McDavid and Draisaitl’s TOI while not reducing RNH’s at all. He could still run a power line in late game situations where he needs a goal, and of course the Big-3 would still PP1 together as well.

Also, Nuge’s current wingers, while doing well, are much better suited to 3rd line comp than they are to 2nd line comp, so that line could be left alone entirely. So you have McDavid, Draisaitl and Neal as sure-fire top-6 guys – probably Kassian too, you need to find say 2 more wingers to fill out the top-6. LadiesloveSmid suggested targeting Athanasiou, I like the player but pointed out the risks above. If Jesse+ can return something like that, I think you do it. Maybe Jurco or Nygard can be a complimentary piece on one of the lines.

These moves will require trading some assortment of Puljujarvi, Benning, the 2020 2nd round pick and possibly a prospect(s) too. I think Holland hangs on to the key prospects, when I suggest throwing one into a deal I’m talking about a Day, Safin or Hebig type of asset, nothing more.

Reja

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Andy Dufresne,

– Not to conflate Amazon with the Oilers: but the “resistance” is similar.Amazon’s analysts said they weren’t making any margin, then they said books isn’t a big enough business, then they said they can’t offer Cloud services because they will get clobbered, then they weren’t going to get into food because it’s too low margin”All Amazon did was win, despite the analysts.Now Buffet says he wishes he invested in Amazon a long time ago (but he didn’t like tech companies)

– I really don’t know if the Oilers are an elite team.But I wish I had invested in Amazon.When the Oiler win, lots of numbers get pulled up to say: “well this isn’t sustainable, this can’t continue”, etc.

– But then Conner doesn’t score and we win, or we get secondary scoring, or our D step up

– But just in case, hop on the Oiler bus a little, take the “pundits” and their backwards looking stats being used to “prove” the future with grains of salt….I wish I had bought some Amazon, when I was told that they weren’t sustainable because of this or that.

– If the Oilers are really good at end of year: we will all be able to point to a narrative to explain why they have over 100 points.If not, some will cherish the “see I told you so”

GOILERS!

In the Oilers Fan base there is a large amount that weren’t around for the cups.In that fan base there’s a certain percentage that relishes the misery and the I told you so. They’re completely lost with the Oilers doing well hockey’s Stockholm Syndrome.

OriginalPouzar

Actually, I didn’t look close enough (don’t post when on a conference call) – those lines are totally jumbled from last game.

I don’t really like Chiasson with McDavid – its not worked in the past – although Chiasson has worked with Drai in the past.

Gagner did have a very quiet game on the 2nd line last game so I get him being switched with Neal and I like Khaira sticking with Nuge – they’ve worked well together.

OilClog

Why the F can’t Nuge have him some Khaira and Neal at the same damn time

Professor Q

frjohnk: Not sure if it counts, but I hit puberty the same exact time I watched Weird Science.

Is it bad that I’ve never seen that movie?

I guess I missed a lot of 80s cultural references.