European Showtime

Gaetan Haas had a tough introduction to the NHL. With family in attendance for his first game in the world’s best league, he played 2:11 in a win over Vancouver. That’s less than ideal. Haas was used sparingly, looked good when he played, got sent down to Bakersfield for a quick tour, and has been back for the last four games. His goal last night, the first of his career, was the result of hard work and forechecking, using his speed and savvy to make things happen. Well done, European showtime. Well done.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
  • New Lowetide:  Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
  • New Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors coaching staff continues to mold unheralded players into legit NHL prospects.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Mailbag: Fixing the forward depth, slotting the big three, a Puljujarvi trade and more
  • Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
  • Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
  • Lowetide: Sheahan hurt, Oilers in need of a two-way centre; some candidates emerging
  • Jonathan Willis: Handicapping the chase for the Calder after the first month of the 2019-20 NHL season
  • Jonathan Willis: Unproductive Oilers forwards are in danger of losing their jobs — and soon
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the current state of the Edmonton Oilers goaltending.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
  • Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
  • Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS AFTER 16 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 6-10-0, 10 points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in 2016: 9-6-1, 19 points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in 2017: 6-9-1, 13 points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in 2018: 8-7-1, 17 points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in 2019: 10-4-2, 22 points; goal differential +5

Edmonton is on pace for 113 points, and are three points clear of the previous ‘best McDavid’ team. I suggested last night’s game was a pick ’em, and the late goal by Haas tying it confirmed the closeness of the game. Arizona outplayed the Oilers for much of the game, but the home team fought through some tough checking and a team of referees imported from 1975 to grab a point. Tough to be negative.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in November 2016: 0-1-1, one point; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in November 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in November 2018: 2-0-0, two points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in November 2019: 1-0-1, three points; goal differential 0

Once again, and it’s admittedly early, this year’s McDavid crew has some momentum heading into games against the Stanley Cup champions and the New Jersey Devils. Goal differential is flat, that’s an interesting curio for a team with three of a possible four points.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1)
  • At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-0-1, 3 points after two games

The two remaining games this week are against teams who will be playing the second of back-to-backs, but counting on two wins is probably unwise. Blues are 6-2-2 in its last 10 games, New Jersey 3-4-3.

The Haas goal came on a 21 second shift featuring Haas, Zack Kassian and Jujhar Khaira. That isn’t covered below, all numbers five-on-five unless noted and NST is the resource.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Alex Chiasson played 7:52, going 5-9 Corsi, 1-5 shots, 1-1 goals and 1-2 HDSC. Sam Gagner replaced Chiasson for 7:48, trio went 8-4 Corsi, 6-2 shots, 0-1 goals and 3-0 HDSC.

Leon Draisaitl had an assist on McDavid’s brilliant goal, a giveaway that resulted in the first goal against (it wasn’t in a terrible spot), won a lot of faceoffs and skated miles. Connor McDavid scored a stunning goal, four shots, three HDSC, drew a penalty. My God what a great hockey player. Alex Chiasson had one HDSC but didn’t impress his coach, with Tippett saying “I put him in that place to give him a good opportunity tonight and there wasn’t a lot happening there.” Sam Gagner took better advantage of the opportunity and we’ll see how the top line looks against St. Louis.

LINE 2 James Neal-Nuge-Zack Kassian played 9:58, going 9-10 Corsi, 6-6 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC. The trio’s best moment came when Neal intercepted a pass, sent it to Nuge who got it to Kassian for a great chance. That was the big moment for the line.

James Neal had one shot, a takeaway and a giveaway. I bet he lands on McDavid’s line soon. Nuge had one shot, a HDSC, a monster hit on OEL, a giveaway and won lots of faceoffs. Kassian almost scored, had one other HDSC, two shots, five hits and a penalty. I liked his game on this line.

LINE 3 Markus Granlund-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 5:01, going 3-2 Corsi, 1-1 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Markus Granlund had two shots, a 10-bell chance and a takeaway. He played well but isn’t bringing enough offense. Colby Cave had a HDSC but was challenged by the speed of this game. Patrick Russell had a takeaway but was otherwise quiet.

LINE 4 Jujhar Khaira-Gaetan Haas-Sam Gagner played 4:09, going 2-1 Corsi, 2-0 shots, no goals and no HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira did great work along the wall, he is bringing solid play consistently of late. He had a shot and a HDSC. Haas scored his first NHL goal and was central to the Oilers getting a point.

OILERS 2019-20

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 17:45, going 24-9 Corsi, 14-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 6-1 HDSC.

Darnell Nurse had four shots, two takeaways and played well to my eye, save for his indecisiveness (that was bad) in overtime. Ethan Bear had a HDSC, three shots and a giveaway. The pair had the puck moving in the right direction most of the night.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played just 10:07, going 6-10 Corsi, 2-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-4 HDSC.

Oscar Klefbom had one takeaway and five blocked shots, he was his usual self defensively. He had one shot on the power play, resulted in a brief chance for Nuge. Joel Persson played the second goal poorly, a penalty in that situation would have been satisfactory, and he struggled with Arizona’s speed throughout the game. That’s an issue in regard to his NHL future. Benched after the second goal.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 10:06, going 4-5 Corsi, 1-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Kris Russell had an assist, a giveaway and two shot blocks on the night. Matt Benning got his shot to the net for Haas’ tip and the tie. He also drew a penalty, played well.

GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 21 of 24, .875. The first goal should have been stopped, Haas’ goal bailed him out and then overtime was point blank.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join us to talk about last night’s game and possible recalls. Scott Mitchell, TSN’s Jays reporter has a look at the top 50 free agents and a starting pitcher acquisition (Chase Anderson) and the long road back to a respectable rotation. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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367 Responses to "European Showtime"

« Older Comments
  1. RonnieB says:

    Ryan: Bob Stauffer continually intimates that the Nurse camp will expect far more than Morrissey’s contract.

    ($6.25 x 8)

    The ELCs for Nurse (N) and Morrissey (M) expired at the same time. In the last year of the ELC, N had 6G+20A in 82 games; M had 7G+19A in 81 games. Both players held out. On Sept. 16th M signed a 2 year bridge at $3.15 AAV and the next day N signed a 2 year bridge at $3.2 AAV. It seems like N and his agent considered M to be the closest comparable at that time.
    In Y1 of the bridge deals, N had 10G+31A in 82 games (0.5ppg) and M had 6G+25A in 59 games (0.525ppg). In Y2 to date N has 2G+6A in 16 games; M has 1G+8A in 13 games.

    Given the continual criticism of N’s defence, it’s hard to imagine that he would be considered substantially better than M defensively.

    In view of the above, it would seem highly improbable that N would merit a significantly higher 3rd contract than M.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: That picture lies about the nature of the bad play and bad decisions on that play.Look at the video.

    Here’s the video:

    https://www.nhl.com/video/stepan-snaps-home-overtime-winner/t-310110190/c-70119503

    You can’t come away from that thinking anything other than “Nurse did less than nothing”

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: I hope they are smart enough to move the player if that is the case
    He is the player we always accused Faulk of being
    A point cannibal
    He puts up points because despite having mediocre passing and a mediocre shot he does have pretty good offensive awareness and cheats for offense and gets lots of ice time with two top 10 players in the world and maybe top 5
    But he neglects defensive responsibility and mesmerizes coaches with size and athletic ability
    He’s a second pairing D and should be paid as such
    My dream is they flip him for Huberdeau

    I hope they are smart enough to not more him until an adequate replacement in the top 4 has presented itself (i.e developed).

    Of course, if a Huberdeau level offer is out there, absolutely, but that’s not in the realm of reasonableness I wouldn’t say.

    There is no rush to trade the guy – yes, its going to be tough to fit in $7M next year but the contract will be for term, and good term with little, if any, regression expected during it. This player’s trade value will not be reduced in the next 3 – 5 years and its incumbent on the org to wait until he can be materially replaced in the lineup, not by Kris Russell or Caleb Jones (current Caleb Jones).

  4. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If not Huberdeau then Ehlers.
    I don’t like the idea of trading him without a replacement ready but I would rather move him before others realize what he is and what they would be paying him

  5. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer: I hope they are smart enough to move the player if that is the case
    He is the player we always accused Faulk of being
    A point cannibal
    He puts up points because despite having mediocre passing and a mediocre shot he does have pretty good offensive awareness and cheats for offense and gets lots of ice time with two top 10 players in the world and maybe top 5
    But he neglects defensive responsibility and mesmerizes coaches with size and athletic ability
    He’s a second pairing D and should be paid as such
    My dream is they flip him for Huberdeau

    How do you figure he cheats for offence? He has the skating ability to get back quickly and is probably the third fastest skater on the team. He is big, physical and a team first player. Because of his physical ability and athleticism he can play big minutes and is not prone to injuries. Even if you make a slight overpay on an eight year contract you will have a value contract for the latter half of said contract due inflation. Your anti Nurse diatribe is poorly thought out and wrong.

  6. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    yes that was 100% a one-knee stick-down play

  7. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s the video:

    https://www.nhl.com/video/stepan-snaps-home-overtime-winner/t-310110190/c-70119503

    You can’t come away from that thinking anything other than “Nurse did less than nothing”

    Can you spell PYLON?

  8. Harpers Hair says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    yes that was 100% a one-knee stick-down play

    He also could have directly engaged the puck carrier and tried to tie up his stick.
    Instead he did nothing.

  9. Glovjuice says:

    Side: “Under this logic, everyone could murder someone once provided they hadn’t done it before. We all make mistakes!”

    Wow. Where to start……

    Hmmm…..

    Where to start with all of this…

    What an incredibly Trumpian post. I am going to assume you made this post because Nuge did in fact, give you a wedgie recently.

    Wow.

    You dudes are bursting at the seams it seems. Relax a touch.

  10. Side says:

    Glovjuice: You dudes are bursting at the seams it seems. Relax a touch.

    Strange interpretation, but okay.

  11. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s the video:

    https://www.nhl.com/video/stepan-snaps-home-overtime-winner/t-310110190/c-70119503

    You can’t come away from that thinking anything other than “Nurse did less than nothing”

    I will say in Nurses defense here that Schmaltz made a heck of a play here.

    At no point did Schmaltz look over to Stepan. Easy for us to see from the stands or TV, that Nurse should have been ready for the pass, but when a guy is not looking to pass and actual does it, it can be a tougher play to defend.

    Yes, Nurse should have been ready for a pass but that was a very nice play by Schmaltz.

  12. Harpers Hair says:

    frjohnk: I will say in Nurses defense here that Schmaltz made a heck of a play here.

    At no point did Schmaltz look over to Stepan. Easy for us to see from the stands or TV, that Nurse should have been ready for the pass, but when a guy is not looking to pass and actual does it, it can be a tougher play to defend.

    Yes, Nurse should have been ready for a pass but that was a very nice play by Schmaltz.

    There were two possible outcomes and Nurse didn’t deal with either.

  13. Todd Macallan says:

    Lavoie is flying tonight. I also love how ornery he is, especially when he goades Canucks prospects into penalties like Podkolzin there

  14. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Can you spell PYLON?

    Nah
    That was more controller disconnected than pylon

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie picks up an assist on the tying goal mid-way through the second – he’s 1G/1A, plus 2 and 3 shots.

  16. Wilde says:

    Harpers Hair: He also could have directly engaged the puck carrier and tried to tie up his stick.
    Instead he did nothing.

    yes but that’s an earlier commitment

  17. Harpers Hair says:

    Wilde: yes but that’s an earlier commitment

    Conventional wisdom says let the goalie deal with the shot and negate the pass option.
    He did neither.

  18. Pouzar says:

    Last Night Nurse was:

    69.23 CF%
    83.10 xGF%

    Clearly the reason they lost.

  19. Pouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Your anti Nurse diatribe is poorly thought out and wrong.

    This used to be a numbers blog.

  20. hags9k says:

    Getting on Nurse’s case for giving up a 2 on 1 goal in OT is ridiculous in my opinion.

    If he would have denied the shot or broke up the pass somehow it would have been a good play.

    Just because your center fielder doesn’t make a diving catch doesn’t mean he made a bad play.

    Give the other team credit, it was well executed.

  21. hunter1909 says:

    hags9k:
    Getting on Nurse’s case for giving up a 2 on 1 goal in OT is ridiculous in my opinion.

    If he would have denied the shot or broke up the pass somehow it would have been a good play.

    Just because your center fielder doesn’t make a diving catch doesn’t mean he made a bad play.

    Give the other team credit, it was well executed.

    Thank you and good night.

  22. Material Elvis says:

    Pouzar:
    Last Night Nurse was:

    69.23 CF%
    83.10 xGF%

    Clearly the reason they lost.

    He is the first defenseman to ever allow a 2 on 1 pass to get by him. I thought this was common knowledge.

  23. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: There were two possible outcomes and Nurse didn’t deal with either.

    How kind of you to troll Lowetide tonight with your pedantry.

  24. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s the video:

    https://www.nhl.com/video/stepan-snaps-home-overtime-winner/t-310110190/c-70119503

    You can’t come away from that thinking anything other than “Nurse did less than nothing”

    Nurse has the potential to keep developing for a very long time. He’s emerging as a top pairing player but not anywhere near the point where he can be trusted in all situations. If they sign him to a $6 million 8X deal they almost certainly should get their money’s worth and probably a lot more, should in my opinion Nurse eventually develop into a top 3 NHL defenceman.

  25. hunter1909 says:

    Boston v Montreal is a good game for anyone who is interested in seeing the Bruins not getting their way against a wily old rival. Watching in French helps lol

  26. Pouzar says:

    Suck it haters.

    Evolving-Hockey
    @EvolvingHockey
    ·
    13s
    Nic Petan is the only Leaf to have multiple shots on goal at even strength so far tonight

  27. GMB3 says:

    For those watching the Canada-Russia series, How has Lavoies skating looked?

  28. GMB3 says:

    I love how Nurse is touted as a top pairing guy by some on this blog, and then when their positioned is challenged by his mediocre advanced stats (argument could be made for below replacement defensively), it’s “stats don’t tell the whole story”.

    When his lack of defensive awareness is exposed in a key play in overtime, that doesn’t matter because his advanced stats in that game were good! What is it?

    He’s not a guy who can drive a pairing to success and there are people who think 7 million is worth that. Talk about overvaluing your own players, yikes.

  29. Pouzar says:

    GMB3: I love how Nurse is touted as a top pairing guy by some on this blog

    He is playing the most minutes 5v5 on a pair that plays the most against the other teams best players for a team leading the Western Conference standings.

  30. Munny says:

    Pouzar,

    While carrying a rookie.

  31. Munny says:

    Pouzar,

    Getting no zone start push, and all his stats but GF/GA are positive.

  32. Munny says:

    And of course if we are going to go by GF/GA, our best defenseman this year has been KRusty.

    Probably should have given him more money and term…

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    Pouzar: He is playing the most minutes 5v5 on a pair that plays the most against the other teams best players for a team leading the Western Conference standings.

    WC Standings

    VCR .714
    STL .700
    EDM .688
    ARZ .679

    Arizona currently leads the Flames 2-0 and will likely pass the Oilers in win percentage tonight.

  34. Munny says:

    Lost the junior feed with 30 secs to go in the 3rd…

  35. Boil-in-the-Oil says:

    Lavoie scores OT winner . . . And it was a beauty too!

  36. GMB3 says:

    Pouzar: He is playing the most minutes 5v5 on a pair that plays the most against the other teams best players for a team leading the Western Conference standings.

    This kind of backs up what I said. You use the metrics when it supports your argument. How do the Oilers fare? Not great.

    He also played the most minutes on one of the worst pairings in the NHL last year

  37. hunter1909 says:

    GMB3:
    I love how Nurse is touted as a top pairing guy by some on this blog, and then when their positioned is challenged by his mediocre advanced stats (argument could be made for below replacement defensively), it’s “stats don’t tell the whole story”.

    When his lack of defensive awareness is exposed in a key play in overtime, that doesn’t matter because his advanced stats in that game were good! What is it?

    and there are people who think 7 million is worth that. Talk about overvaluing your own players, yikes.

    He’s not a guy who can “Yet” drive a pairing to success.

    No need to thank me.

  38. Munny says:

    Boil-in-the-Oil,

    The only thing that could make me mad about losing the feed is…

  39. hunter1909 says:

    GMB3: He also played the most minutes on one of the worst pairings in the NHL last year

    Great. Let’s bring up past achievements from a team coached and managed by other people.

  40. Rondo says:

    Boil-in-the-Oil,

    Did Lavoie stick it to the Russians with the Kucherov celebration of scoring

  41. Pouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: WC Standings

    VCR .714
    STL .700
    EDM .688
    ARZ .679

    Arizona currently leads the Flames 2-0 and will likely pass the Oilers in win percentage tonight.

    You got me HH.

  42. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pouzar:
    Last Night Nurse was:

    69.23 CF%
    83.10 xGF%

    Clearly the reason they lost.

    – Thanks for this. I don’t get this whole Nurse thing. He got beat on a 2 on 1 rush in overtime. He was a stud all game. His pairing was beast mode for the game.

    – He’s playing really well especially given a rookie all season to boot.

    – It was a single moment event, 10 seconds at high speed. The investigation or suggestions that he’s no good aren’t warranted not commisurate with his game, nor provide an objective balanced evaluation of his game. Perspective is way off on this. Do we not care about how the pairing did all game, by all measures, many of which LT cited? Weird

    – Maybe having played hockey helps: good players make mistakes in nano-seconds. It’s not proof he’s a low IQ doing the same thing 5 years in a row, or he’s garbage or other such stuff

  43. GMB3 says:

    hunter1909: Great. Let’s bring up past achievements from a team coached and managed by other people.

    Right so we are going to throw out his entire career’s worth of evidence 🤦🏼‍♂️

  44. Boil-in-the-Oil says:

    I had to dig a bit to find this, but here’s the Lavoie OT winner…
    https://twitter.com/CHLHockey/status/1191913225702576130?s=20

    Great celly.

  45. Ice Sage says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Great news HH, any news of fLames struggling is welcome here #no3pointgame

  46. Ice Sage says:

    Boil-in-the-Oil:
    I had to dig a bit to find this, but here’s the Lavoie OT winner…
    https://twitter.com/CHLHockey/status/1191913225702576130?s=20

    Lovely. I believe ‘Lavoie’ translates to ‘the way’

  47. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Arizona currently leads the Flames 2-0 and will likely pass the Oilers in win percentage tonight.

    At the time it was only 1-0, but these are the kind of jokes our favourite court jester likes to pull.

  48. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3: This is such limited thinking. Darnell Nurse is a second pairing guy who will be overpaid. I wonder if New Jersey fans said the same thing about trading Larsson?

    I love Nurse and would hate to trade him, but I’m totally on board if the trade is for a Taylor Hall equivalent. Somehow think that is unlikely though.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lavoie picks up an assist on the tying goal mid-way through the second – he’s 1G/1A, plus 2 and 3 shots.

    Lavoie also scored the OT goal – finished with 2G/1A, plus 3 and 4 shots in a 4-3 win.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr: How do you figure he cheats for offence? He has the skating ability to get back quickly and is probably the third fastest skater on the team. He is big, physical and a team first player. Because of his physical ability and athleticism he can play big minutes and is not prone to injuries. Even if you make a slight overpay on an eight year contract you will have a value contract for the latter half of said contract due inflation. Your anti Nurse diatribe is poorly thought out and wrong.

    You sure proved me wrong

  51. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Thanks for this.I don’t get this whole Nurse thing.He got beat on a 2 on 1 rush in overtime.He was a stud all game.His pairing was beast mode for the game.

    – He’s playing really well especially given a rookie all season to boot.

    – It was a single moment event, 10 seconds at high speed.The investigation or suggestions that he’s no good aren’t warranted not commisurate with his game, nor provide an objective balanced evaluation of his game.Perspective is way off on this. Do we not care about how the pairing did all game, by all measures, many of which LT cited?Weird

    – Maybe having played hockey helps: good players make mistakes in nano-seconds.It’s not proof he’s a low IQ doing the same thing 5 years in a row, or he’s garbage or other such stuff

    Kinger do you think you’re the only one here who’s played the game?

  52. Ice Sage says:

    GMB3: Kinger do you think you’re the only one here who’s played the game?

    I wonder how many posters here have played competitive puck and / or continue to play? Those of us who do will cut Nurse slack – kind of play that happens lots.

  53. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GMB3: Kinger do you think you’re the only one here who’s played the game?

    – why would you make that your takeaway

    – I look at the results of the game, his stats, his partner, how he’s done and then add on my own hockey experience. I can’t reconcile this with the analysis of Nurses game and the relationship between that 15 seconds and his career. So I don’t get it. Sure he made a single event error. That does not supersede his body of work. And I think playing hockey adds to this understanding

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    RonnieB: The ELCs for Nurse (N) and Morrissey (M) expired at the same time. In the last year of the ELC, N had 6G+20A in 82 games; M had 7G+19A in 81 games. Both players held out. On Sept. 16th M signed a 2 year bridge at $3.15 AAV and the next day N signed a 2 year bridge at $3.2 AAV. It seems like N and his agent considered M to be the closest comparable at that time.
    In Y1 of the bridge deals, N had 10G+31A in 82 games (0.5ppg) and M had 6G+25A in 59 games (0.525ppg). In Y2 to date N has 2G+6A in 16 games; M has 1G+8A in 13 games.

    Given the continual criticism of N’s defence, it’s hard to imagine that he would be considered substantially better than M defensively.

    In view of the above, it would seem highly improbable that N would merit a significantly higher 3rd contract than M.

    M has 6 PPP. Nurse has 1 PPP. I would argue neither is ideally suited for PP1, but the Jets have fewer options.

  55. OilClog says:

    Shitting on Nurse because the Coyotes executed a 2 on 1 to perfection is pretty hilarious, I mean to those that watched the entire game and know that blaming Nurse for the loss is ridiculous.

    But hey let’s pump the tires of the Yotes and Nucks while we two hand some sausage.

    Nurse shows up and brings it night in and night out, he literally needs to blow out his knees and hips for his next contract to not hold value. GM’s will always pay a high price for what Nurse is right now and what he’ll continue to blossom into.

    Regardless get good players, keep good players. On the 1% chance all the bubbling prospects beneath him ripen into gold then look at trading the fella. Until then Holland will most likely be handing onto him, he’s not the type to subtract talent when he’s trying to insulate talent.

    Wonder what McDavid would think of trading his good buddy Nurse, I’m sure moving him would Bode well in showing McDavid the Oilers are serious about building a team of winners around him.. Lol.

    When the Oilers are doing great, in the thick of the race why would some think that instead of enjoying the shit out of all this sweet unsustainable glory would anyone care about the winning % of Vancouver of Phoenix or anyone else. Sad.

    Nurse/Bear pairing have been incredibly important to this ride, going to need to set your blame sights elsewhere post movers.

  56. JimmyV1965 says:

    Material Elvis: He is the first defenseman to ever allow a 2 on 1 pass to get by him.I thought this was common knowledge.

    Funny. I was reading Flames Nation the other night and there was lots of bitching about a couple miscues by Gio. Guess he sucks too. Dmen make mistakes, unless they are named Nik Lidstrom.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    If not Huberdeau then Ehlers.
    I don’t like the idea of trading him without a replacement ready but I would rather move him before others realize what he is and what they would be paying him

    GM’s already know what he is.

    Come on, man, you aren’t going to profess that you’ve figured out the player but the management teams around the league are blind to it?

    I’m also highly confident that the vast majority of management teams put alot of value on extremely athletic, elite skating, big and tough, young d-men that are durable, 100% willing to “fight for their teammates, fully committed to the team, fitness and nutrition that have been improving year over year and are skilled enough to be in the top 15 in 5 on 5 scoring over a three year stretch even if the offensive skillset isn’t traditional.

    I don’t imagine this player’s value going down over the 1st 4 years or so of a 7-8 year $7M AAV contract.

    There is no rush to trade him prior to a suitable replacement being ready unless the deal is clearly a win (Huberdeau, not Ehlers, in my opinion).

  58. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – why would you make that your takeaway

    – I look at the results of the game, his stats, his partner, how he’s done and then add on my own hockey experience. I can’t reconcile this with the analysis of Nurses game and the relationship between that 15 seconds and his career. So I don’t get it. Sure he made a single event error. That does not supersede his body of work. And I think playing hockey adds to this understanding

    His career body of work isn’t great either though. So you’re right, single moments can in fact be just single moments, but this seems to be in line with what we have seen so far. Probably an average second pairing D, maybe a 4. Fwiw, I played, my roommate has his masters in coaching and played at a D1…. also thinks he’s shit in his own end.

    RAPM has him nearly a standard deviation below replacement in xGA/60 over the past 3 years, and take advanced stats for what you will, there’s a reason he shows poorly.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    Last Night Nurse was:

    69.23 CF%
    83.10 xGF%

    Clearly the reason they lost.

    but he didn’t make a strong play defending a 2 on 1 in 3 on 3 OT……

    Its not like we’ve ever been eye-witnesees to talented forwards forcing d-men in to poor plays on OT 2 on 1s before…….

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    And of course if we are going to go by GF/GA, our best defenseman this year has been KRusty.

    Probably should have given him more money and term…

    Actually, I think it would be Matt Benning, he’s almost at 80% goal share.

    Its almost like QoC matters for d-men.

  61. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: GM’s already know what he is.

    Come on, man, you aren’t going to profess that you’ve figured out the player but the management teams around the league are blind to it?

    I’m also highly confident that the vast majority of management teams put alot of value on extremely athletic, elite skating, big and tough, young d-men that are durable, 100% willing to “fight for their teammates, fully committed to the team, fitness and nutrition that have been improving year over year and are skilled enough to be in the top 15 in 5 on 5 scoring over a three year stretch even if the offensive skillset isn’t traditional.

    I don’t imagine this player’s value going down over the 1st 4 years or so of a 7-8 year $7M AAV contract.

    There is no rush to trade him prior to a suitable replacement being ready unless the deal is clearly a win (Huberdeau, not Ehlers, in my opinion).

    Since when were points the best method of assessing a Dmans value?

    You’re proving his point, NHL management teams have proven to overrate guys with the tools that’s Nurse have. Leadfarner probably watches more Oilers games than other teams do.

    Cmon OP, you’re not going to profess that management teams are impervious to overvaluing the wrong skills? After the chiarelli debacle, Paul Fenton debacle, Justin Braun getting two seconds in return…

    The appeal to authority is really a shit argument. Player evaluation is a fickle thing. We have a plethora of D prospects and nawt much up front.

    Also his penalty differential stinks as well, we as a whole probably underrate the importance of that.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: WC Standings

    VCR .714
    STL .700
    EDM .688
    ARZ .679

    Arizona currently leads the Flames 2-0 and will likely pass the Oilers in win percentage tonight.

    I could be wrong but I don’t think that’s how the NHL determines standings during the season.

    Nope, I couldn’t be wrong.

    P.S. Canucks are losing so it looks like they could drop below the Oilers in points percentage……

  63. Material Elvis says:

    JimmyV1965: Funny. I was reading Flames Nation the other night and there was lots of bitching about a couple miscues by Gio. Guess he sucks too.Dmen make mistakes, unless they are named Nik Lidstrom.

    And Taylor Hall didn’t back check (couldn’t win anything with *that* guy). Hemsky had no heart; first guy off the ice at practice. Fans and their misguided narratives. Too often the better players are singled out for criticism, when it is the bottom of the roster that causes you to lose.

  64. Material Elvis says:

    Dallas beat a good Avs team tonight. Lots of shots for both sides. The Stars are rolling now. Can’t we collectively put a hex on them?

  65. GMB3 says:

    Material Elvis: And Taylor Hall didn’t back check (couldn’t win anything with *that* guy).Hemsky had no heart; first guy off the ice at practice.Fans and their misguided narratives.Too often the better players are singled out for criticism, when it is the bottom of the roster that causes you to lose.

    Except this is the opposite, because Hall had good to elite underlying numbers, but Nurse not so much.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: This kind of backs up what I said. You use the metrics when it supports your argument. How do the Oilers fare? Not great.

    He also played the most minutes on one of the worst pairings in the NHL last year

    Of course, if one wasn’t using metrics when they support their argument, they would look at how Adam Larsson effected, well, everyone……. and who Nurse played with predominantly.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    IceSage: I wonder how many posters here have played competitive puck and / or continue to play? Those of us who do will cut Nurse slack – kind of play that happens lots.

    I am the only person in history to league both the Edmonton and Calgary Jewish Hockey Leagues in scoring (separate years) – what does that count for?

  68. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I could be wrong but I don’t think that’s how the NHL determines standings during the season.

    Nope, I couldn’t be wrong.

    P.S. Canucks are losing so it looks like they could drop below the Oilers in points percentage……

    Has it really come to this, OP? Discussing with a troll not real points earned, not games in hand, but swings in *potential* winner percentages with each goal on the out of town scoreboard.

  69. Material Elvis says:

    GMB3:

    Also his penalty differential stinks as well, we as a whole probably underrate the importance of that.

    Don’t most Dmen have a negative penalty differential? And playing against other teams’ top guys must impact that stat. I’d be curious to see where he ranks in the top 124 defensemen in that category.

  70. Munny says:

    GMB3: His career body of work isn’t great either though

    You mean his 20-23 year old years?

    When his most common partners were Eric Gryba, an erstwhile broken Larsson, and, most commonly, Kris Russell playing on the wrong side?

    When Sekera and KBomb, two players who should have kept him down the line up and protected, were often hurt and couldn’t?

    When he has improved to being a top 20 Dman at 5×5 scoring? Eats minutes against tough comp and has been coming out ahead this year in every single category other than GF-GA?

    When the long time NHL Head Coach, who studied film and stats from last year has decided to give him the most ev TOI of any of the team’s Dmen?

    …And xGF and xGA are flawed stats, as has been discussed on this blog.

  71. Jethro Tull says:

    So Nurse missed an assignment on the 2 on 2. He was puck watching. The rub comes when the coach benches a player for actually trying take a play and gets called out in the presser.

    A perfect 2 on 1? Seriously? Stepan was the only player slower than Neal in that game.

    I hope Nurse learns from video he’ll no doubt see. He lost his guy, but the goalie still gets beat.short side.

  72. Munny says:

    Rittich is keeping the Flames in their game. Be a blowout without him.

  73. Material Elvis says:

    GMB3: Except this is the opposite, because Hall had good to elite underlying numbers, but Nurse not so much.

    It’s hard to compare those same underlying numbers. Most of the metrics that rated Hall favorably do not accurately reflect the role of a defenseman. Yeah, I think Hall is a better LW than Nurse is a D, but Nurse is definitely a top 4 caliber defenseman (who I anticipate will get better defensively with age).

  74. Munny says:

    Chara played his 1500th NHL game tonight.

    He was 24 when the Isles gave up on him.

    Just sayin…

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB51: His career body of work isn’t great either though. So you’re right, single moments can in fact be just single moments, but this seems to be in line with what we have seen so far. Probably an average second pairing D, maybe a 4. Fwiw, I played, my roommate has his masters in coaching and played at a D1…. also thinks he’s shit in his own end.

    RAPM has him nearly a standard deviation below replacement in xGA/60 over the past 3 years, and take advanced stats for what you will, there’s a reason he shows poorly.

    Thankfully his positive contributions to the team on the ice are much higher than those numbers.

  76. oilersfan says:

    Flames come back from down 3-1 with 5 minutes left to tie it. 2 goals in 49 seconds.

    How do they keep doing this!?

    I believe this is the fourth time this season they have come back from a 2 or 3 goal deficit in the third period, and every time Tkachuk is the driver . I really hate that team

  77. Munny says:

    Of course the Flames tie it with a late charge.

    They hate DSF even more than we find him hilarious.

  78. GMB3 says:

    Munny: You mean his 20-23 year old years?

    When his most common partners were Eric Gryba, an erstwhile broken Larsson,and, most commonly, Kris Russell playing on the wrong side?

    When Sekera and KBomb, two players who should have kept him down the line up and protected, were often hurt and couldn’t?

    When he has improved to being a top 20 Dman at 5×5 scoring?Eats minutes against tough comp and has been coming out ahead this year in every single category other than GF-GA?

    When the long time NHL Head Coach, who studied film and stats from last year has decided to givenhim the most TOI of any of the team’s Dmen?

    …And xGF and xGA are flawed stats, as has been discussed on this blog.

    RAPM accounts for teammates. Andrej Sekera managed to be just fine with Kris Russell in a second pairing role in 16-17 yet Oiler fans still bitched he was overpaid. xGA and xGF are flawed stats, sure, but it’s more enlightening than screaming about it into the void over and over because … what… you just think so? Excellent job proving he’s a 7 million dollar a year defensemen.

    Klefbom is also second in the league in overall TOI. So Tippet hasn’t.

    This is exactly my point. You’re admitting he struggled to break even. He can’t drive a pairing to success, he takes more penalties than he draws, he’s suspect defensively and gets a ton of ice time with arguably the most lethal duo in the NHL. Points have never been a strong way to evaluate D, not sure when that’s changed.

    His numbers have improved this year? Sure, a bit. Maybe we should save that big cheque for his D partner then.

  79. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thankfully his positive contributions to the team on the ice are much higher than those numbers.

    Prove something. Or is this just cus u said so?

  80. Munny says:

    OT in Cowtown

  81. Munny says:

    GMB3: RAPM accounts for teammates. Andrej Sekera managed to be just fine with Kris Russell in a second pairing role in 16-17 yet Oiler fans still bitched he was overpaid. xGA and xGF are flawed stats, sure, but it’s more enlightening than screaming about it into the void over and over because … what… you just think so? Excellent job proving he’s a 7 million dollar a year defensemen.

    WTF?

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: Since when were points the best method of assessing a Dmans value?

    You’re proving his point, NHL management teams have proven to overrate guys with the tools that’s Nurse have. Leadfarner probably watches more Oilers games than other teams do.

    Cmon OP, you’re not going to profess that management teams are impervious to overvaluing the wrong skills? After the chiarelli debacle, Paul Fenton debacle, Justin Braun getting two seconds in return…

    The appeal to authority is really a shit argument. Player evaluation is a fickle thing. We have a plethora of D prospects and nawt much up front.

    Also his penalty differential stinks as well, we as a whole probably underrate the importance of that.

    So, out of that post the takeaway is I’m using points to evaluate Nurse?

    I value the opinions of all on this community – its made up of much smarter hockey people than me, that’s for sure. Its been a wealth of information for me and I’ve learned a ton.

    Notwithstanding the starts of the Dellows, etc. of the world, while fully acknowledging the NHL managers clearly make mistakes, I will continue to to put value in the opinions of the collective management teams of the NHL in priority to the blog – no disrespect.

    Even if the blog does prove to be smarter than the GMs on this point, this doesn’t change that fact that the GMs will continue to value this type of player and the player signed for $7M (give or take) for term, will continue to have trade value 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now – there is no rush to trade this player.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Efffing flames and their late game comebacks.

  84. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    Of course the Flames tie it with a late charge.

    They hate DSF even more than we find him hilarious.

    Oh my.
    Flames and Arizona both get points?
    Hilarious.

  85. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, if one wasn’t using metrics when they support their argument, they would look at how Adam Larsson effected, well, everyone……. and who Nurse played with predominantly.

    Not sure how this is evidence that Nurse can be the guy who can lead a top 4 pairing to success.

  86. Harpers Hair says:

    Flames win.
    Chucky with 9 goals on the season.

  87. oilersfan says:

    Wish Tkachuk had held out for $10 million

    Flames would be 2-15

  88. Munny says:

    Flames score, sticking a fork in DSF’s prediction.

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    Flames score, sticking a fork in DSF’s prediction.

    Phhht.
    Arizona 2 points back with a game in hand.

  90. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Oh my.
    Flames and Arizona both get points?
    Hilarious.

    Don’t be jealous. It’s nowhere near as funny as you.

    You’re still the top funny thing in our hearts and always will be.

  91. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: So, out of that post the takeaway is I’m using points to evaluate Nurse?

    I value the opinions of all on this community – its made up of much smarter hockey people than me, that’s for sure.Its been a wealth of information for me and I’ve learned a ton.

    Notwithstanding the starts of the Dellows, etc. of the world, while fully acknowledging the NHL managers clearly make mistakes, I will continue to to put value in the opinions of the collective management teams of the NHL in priority to the blog – no disrespect.

    Even if the blog does prove to be smarter than the GMs on this point, this doesn’t change that fact that the GMs will continue to value this type of player and the player signed for $7M (give or take) for term, will continue to have trade value 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now – there is no rush to trade this player.

    Sure, I misinterpreted your point in response there. My big fear is we are going to trade a comparable (if not better) player in Klefbom, who’s on a sweetheart deal, and will probably be better value. We’ve got LD matriculating, just spent a high pick on one. We lack forward depth, in both the prospect pool and at the NHL level. Does that mean trade him right now? You’re probably right, no.

    If Caleb Jones or Willie Lagesson crush it on the third pairing, might be the time to ask if this team is better with Ehlers (or equivalent) on one of the top two forward lines and Lagesson/Jones in place of Nurse on a top pairing.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit: Has it really come to this, OP? Discussing with a troll not real points earned, not games in hand, but swings in *potential*winner percentages with each goal on the out of town scoreboard.

    If I have the desire to respond to the post in kind I see no reason why I should be discouraged from doing the same – of course, I could join the 12 hour conversation on what Nurse did wrong on an OT 2 on 1 instead…..

  93. Ice Sage says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Efffing flames and their late game comebacks.

    Yeah someone was off on their prediction earlier, as usual, forgot about fLames high-altitude, back-to-back, late game advantage. Western Canadian teams
    Looking good

  94. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – why would you make that your takeaway

    – I look at the results of the game, his stats, his partner, how he’s done and then add on my own hockey experience. I can’t reconcile this with the analysis of Nurses game and the relationship between that 15 seconds and his career. So I don’t get it. Sure he made a single event error. That does not supersede his body of work. And I think playing hockey adds to this understanding

    Could you summarise the opposing position?

  95. oilersfan says:

    3:30 left to go and flames are down by 2 goals. Score two goals in less than a minute

    Fourth time this year they came back from two goal deficits in the third period

    Won 3 of those games. This and the win in Nashville especially are so rare

    They just defy logic

    Pisses me off so much

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB:
    Also his penalty differential stinks as well, we as a whole probably underrate the importance of that.

    Darnell Nurse -2

    Morgan Riley -6

    Mikhail Sergachev – 5

    Dougie Hamilton – 4

    Roman Josi – 2

    Maybe the important is over-rated by some?

  97. Wilde says:

    Game Score per game of Condors forwards:

    [ still figuring out how I want to weight things for Dmen, also going to incorporate zone exit/entry stuff later but I want to crunch the numbers on how Corey Sznajder’s NHL stuff converts to Actual Goals; either way going to wait till a dozen and a half games in for sample size probly too ]

    5Gambardella – 1.38
    7Yamamoto – 1.20
    8Iacobellis – 0.49
    9Esposito – 0.25
    10Stukel – 0.27
    11Maksimov – 0.19
    13Vesey – -0.11
    14Peluso – 0.34
    15Koules – 0.32
    16Benson – 0.87
    17Malone – 0.68
    18Currie – 0.80
    20Marody – 0.64
    21Hebig – 0.33
    26Cave – 0.75
    29McLeod – 0.64
    89Gagner – 1.15
    92Haas – -0.09

    Interesting that an ECHL call-up is clocking in (at three games on a fourth line with another call-up and Peluso) at almost double the production of the trusty pet centre =]

  98. Ice Sage says:

    H
    OriginalPouzar: I am the only person in history to league both the Edmonton and Calgary Jewish Hockey Leagues in scoring (separate years) – what does that count for?

    </blockquot

    LOL, that totally qualifies you, more than some
    Armchair posters here who think it’s obvious how to defend a 2 on 1.
    Mazel Tov!

  99. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: If I have the desire to respond to the post in kind I see no reason why I should be discouraged from doing the same – of course, I could join the 12 hour conversation on what Nurse did wrong on an OT 2 on 1 instead…..

    The discouraged part is entirely up to you. But cherry picking with Bedbug Bob? Takes all kinds.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: Prove something. Or is this just cus u said so?

    Sometimes one just has to watch hockey games.

    Not to mention the coach is playing the player a full 2 minutes more at 5 on 5 than Klefbom (who’s TOI/G you used earlier in the thread).

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: Not sure how this is evidence that Nurse can be the guy who can lead a top 4 pairing to success.

    Its evidence of cherry picking stats to prove a narrative which is what you were accusing others of doing.

  102. drglen says:

    so no call ups or send downs today.

    Does Perrson draw in tomorrow? I think Tipp will put him right back out there.

    Of the healthy bodies, should Jurco draw in? I think when he goes in he will replace Ganger for a couple of games.

  103. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sometimes one just has to watch hockey games

    Hey OP you watch a lot of Condor games. How do Wilde’s game scores line up with what you are seeing? Any trends the last week or so?

  104. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Darnell Nurse -2

    Morgan Riley -6

    Mikhail Sergachev – 5

    Dougie Hamilton – 4

    Roman Josi – 2

    Maybe the important is over-rated by some?

    It’s 16 games into the season. But I dunno. I said probably. I haven’t done a ton of digging into that yet. I was fairly surprised by how bad Brent Burns is over the last couple of seasons. Comparative to Larsson, Russell, and Klefbom,

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen:
    so no call ups or send downs today.

    Does Perrson draw in tomorrow? I think Tipp will put him right back out there.

    Of the healthy bodies, should Jurco draw in? I think when he goes in he will replace Ganger for a couple of games.

    The effectiveness of the top line with and without Gagner last night was insane – granted it was probably as much the removal of Chiasson as the insertion of Sam.

    Judging by practice – Jurco is in for Granlund.

  106. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sometimes one just has to watch hockey games.

    Not to mention the coach is playing the player a full 2 minutes more at 5 on 5 than Klefbom (who’s TOI/G you used earlier in the thread).

    My point was in reference to his about him having the most TOI/g. Where did he reference 5v5?

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit: Hey OP you watch a lot of Condor games. How do Wilde’s game scores line up with what you are seeing? Any trends the last week or so?

    Nit: Hey OP you watch a lot of Condor games. How do Wilde’s game scores line up with what you are seeing? Any trends the last week or so?

    Nit: Hey OP you watch a lot of Condor games. How do Wilde’s game scores line up with what you are seeing? Any trends the last week or so?

    The trend this weekend is they finally got some solid tending (Skinner started, and won, both ends of the back to back).

    Kailer has come back down with respect to driving scoring chances – still doing so but not at the crazy rates of earlier in the year – he is drawing PIMs nightly though and being relied on heavily for the PK.

    Benson has taken over as the offensive beast the last few games – points have finally started to come – he’s been playing well.

    They miss the leadership and work eithic of P. Russell and Joe G.

  108. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its evidence of cherry picking stats to prove a narrative which is what you were accusing others of doing.

    How is that evidence of cherry picking stats? You really didn’t prove anything.

  109. Munny says:

    GMB3: My point was in reference to his about him having the most TOI/g. Where did he reference 5v5?

    We typically use EV TOI, because the coach doesn’t determine how many special teams minutes a team will get. Also it’s the game state that predominates and tells us a lot about how a coach feels about a defenseman. Which if you recall was the thrust of the statement.

  110. JimmyV1965 says:

    I heard someone say once, maybe twice even, they we don’t know who a dman is until he’s played 300 games. Nurse has played 295. And correct me if I wrong, but Nurse and Bear have the best Corsi amongst dmen on the team. IMO Nurse has taken his game to another level this year.

  111. Munny says:

    VAN get a fluke goal at the end of the 3rd but Schwartz finishes them off in OT.

  112. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965,

    But we’re making this decision on how his games 0-280 rank with established Dmen. And his penalty differential.

    smh

  113. Munny says:

    The Ducks lose in reg, and the Oil remain atop the Pacific standings with a chance to improve their point total tomorrow night.

  114. GMB3 says:

    Munny: We typically use EV TOI, because the coach doesn’t determine how many special teams minutes a team will get.Also it’s the game state that predominates and tells us a lot about how a coach feels about a defenseman. Which if you recall was the thrust of the statement.

    Okay but you said TOI.. just responded to what you said.

    Klefbom also has 20 more minutes on the PK as per NST. So I’m not sure how that’s an argument for this statement

    “When the long time NHL Head Coach, who studied film and stats from last year has decided to give him the most TOI of any of the team’s Dmen?”

    When it is evidently not true at this point in the season? As he has chosen to give Klefbom the most TOI. I’d assume the drop in 5v5 time is a result of the extra minutes he plays in those disciplines.

  115. GMB3 says:

    GMB3: Okay but you said TOI.. just responded to what you said.

    Klefbom also has 20 more minutes on the PK as per NST. So I’m not sure how that’s an argument for this statement

    “When the long time NHL Head Coach, who studied film and stats from last year has decided to give him the most TOI of any of the team’s Dmen?”

    When it is evidently not true at this point in the season? As he has chosen to give Klefbom the most TOI. I’d assume the drop in 5v5 time is a result of the extra minutes he plays in those disciplines.

    And Klefbom’s RAPM over the past 3 complete seasons looks quite a bit nicer than Nurse’s.

  116. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    So the out of town scoreboard was pretty negative tonight. Vegas, Calgary, Arizona, and Vancouver all got points.

    Geezus the western conference is ridiculous right now… Ducks have more points than Colorado right now, but sit 9th cuz the pacific division is killing it. How is this happening??? Why can’t the oilers for once be good by themselves??? Nope, hockey gods rule that oilers shall not be a winning team unless every other divisional team also wins.
    Ugh… at this rate it might take 99 points to get into the playoffs! It was only something like 90 points last season!!

  117. pts2pndr says:

    GMB3:
    I love how Nurse is touted as a top pairing guy by some on this blog, and then when their positioned is challenged by his mediocre advanced stats (argument could be made for below replacement defensively), it’s “stats don’t tell the whole story”.

    When his lack of defensive awareness is exposed in a key play in overtime, that doesn’t matter because his advanced stats in that game were good! What is it?

    He’s not a guy who can drive a pairing to success and there are people who think 7 million is worth that. Talk about overvaluing your own players, yikes.

    He is playing top pairing minutes with a virtual rookie in Bear and the team is first in the Pacific division. The man is still learning. Yes he will make some mistakes. That goes with being a young D man. There have been far more egregious mistakes by players with more experience. If you want a whipping boy I guess that is your right but if you look at the bigger picture I think you might realize you are over reacting.

  118. Munny says:

    GMB3,

    I’d assume it’s because one of them has a rookie partner (with respect to 4 x 5).

    They’re both very good defensemen. Tippett’s lucky to have them. Considering he’s playing the fuck out of both, I don’t think he wants either to go anywhere.

  119. Munny says:

    Crazy Pedestrian,

    Can you imagine the state of affairs if the Pacific was kicking out the jams and we were back behind SJS?

  120. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    The Ducks lose in reg, and the Oil remain atop the Pacific standings with a chance to improve their point total tomorrow night.

    VCR .700
    EDM .668
    ARZ .667
    VGK .625
    ANA . .559
    CGY.556
    SJS .344
    LAK .333

  121. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: WC Standings

    VCR .714
    STL .700
    EDM .688
    ARZ .679

    Arizona currently leads the Flames 2-0 and will likely pass the Oilers in win percentage tonight.

    Those numbers aren’t standings. Their Win%.

    I saw some Dys tonight, they are playing very well, buying into the system.

    It’s gonna be a while before they go far. The talent is too young and doesn’t weigh enough yet.

    They’ll be the best Pacific unsuccessful challenger for the Oilers in the coming era. Better than Calgary, up there with the Avs.

    This is why when proposing trades the return should enhance or have the potential to, the next 5-10 years which will be the time of a new generation of best players as the current guys are all aging out. Not done but fading out.

    Edit- trading Jesse for a 28 yo mediocre player even if a helpful addition is a loss be a 28 yo mediocre player is almost done.

    They need to get more out of any deal perhaps by finding a package. Also there is no reason to move him until they might lose his rights or leverage because of it. Let him play there rather than take any crap offer.

  122. GMB3 says:

    pts2pndr: He is playing top pairing minutes with a virtual rookie in Bear and the team is first in the Pacific division. The man is still learning. Yes he will make some mistakes. That goes with being a young D man. There have been far more egregious mistakes by players with more experience. If you want a whipping boy I guess that is your right but if you look at the bigger picture I think you might realize you are over reacting.

    I’m referencing his advanced metrics for more than just this year. In fact his numbers look a lot better with the rookie D this year. Nor am I looking for a whipping boy. My opinion is that he’s not a top 3 D, andnis not worth 7 million. Much over 6 would be a mistake.

    In fact, I think his value is higher around the league than it should be, so when younger LD are pushing up the pipeline, I think he’s the prime candidate for trade for an impact F. Probably has more name value than Klef, and Klef is better and on a better contract. Not exactly what I call whipping boy status. Rusty will remain my whipping boy for the time being.

  123. GMB3 says:

    Munny:
    GMB3,

    I’d assume it’s because one of them has a rookie partner (with respect to 4 x 5).

    They’re both very good defensemen.Tippett’s lucky to have them.Considering he’s playing the fuck out of both, I don’t think he wants either to go anywhere.

    Joel Persson is also a rookie, and probably more of a rookie irt total pro experience than Bear. Obviously the games when Perssson are out skew that a bit, but I’m going to say him losing 5v5 minutes or probably a byproduct of the extra minutes he gets on special teams, really proving your prior point of “an experienced coach choosing him to play the most TOI on the team” to be moot, as he doesn’t.

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Those numbers aren’t standings. Their Win%.

    I saw some Dys tonight, they are playing very well, buying into the system.

    It’s gonna be a while before they go far. The talent is too young and doesn’t weigh enough yet.

    They’ll be the best Pacific unsuccessfulchallenger for the Oilers in the coming era. Better than Calgary, up there with the Avs.

    This is why when proposing trades the return should enhance or have the potential to, the next 5-10 years which will be the time of a new generation of best players as the current guys are all aging out. Not done but fading out.

    Edit- trading Jesse for a 28 yo mediocre player even if a helpful addition is a loss be a 28 yo mediocre player is almost done.

    They need to get more out of any deal perhaps by finding a package. Also there is no reason to move him until they might lose his rights or leverage because of it. Let him play there rather than take any crap offer.

    Win % is the actual standings.
    Having more points while other teams have games in hand is just noise.

  125. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Munny:
    Crazy Pedestrian,

    Can you imagine the state of affairs if the Pacific was kicking out the jams and we were back behind SJS?

    Other than LA, who we all knew was going to be bad, the pacific Division has pretty much flipped upside-down. It’s been a topsy-turvy season so far…

  126. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Conventional wisdom says let the goalie deal with the shot and negate the pass option.
    He did neither.

    Instead of critiquing Nurse would you care to explain how yourCanucks managed to give up a three on nothing and allowing the winning overtime goal. Only difference I see is your Canucks get a pass for
    a 3 man screw up instead of a one man mistake.

  127. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: Instead of critiquing Nurse would you care to explain how yourCanucks managed to give up a three on nothing and allowing the winning overtime goal. Only difference I see is your Canucksget a pass fora 3 man screw up instead of a one man mistake.

    Sure.
    The Canucks went all in on trying to score a goal to win the game and failed.
    Didn’t work and they lost.
    Shit happens.

    Meanwhile Nurse had a chance to break up a play and was a pylon.

  128. Bank Shot says:

    Anaheim sure has come back to earth.

    9-7 now.

    I swear they were like 7-1 a couple of weeks ago

  129. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: VCR .700
    EDM .668
    ARZ .667
    VGK .625
    ANA . .559
    CGY.556
    SJS .344
    LAK .333

    Another baseball joke! Dude, you are the cutest!!

  130. Munny says:

    Bank Shot:
    Anaheim sure has come back to earth.

    9-7 now.

    I swear they were like 7-1 a couple of weeks ago

    And that can happen to any of these division leaders, us, Canuckleheads, Flames, Yotes, Knights…

    It’s a long season. The important thing is to stay in the hunt. Minimize the losses. So far so good.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Win % is the actual standings.
    Having more points while other teams have games in hand is just noise.

    Maybe. But W% isn’t permanent, points are, they don’t go down.

    W% also doesn’t account for luck or any context so a vegetable chopper not a scalpel. It needs some extra to inform it.

  132. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: Another baseball joke!Dude, you are the cutest!!

    I would wager that a week from now The Oilers are fourth in the baseball standings.

  133. Munny says:

    GMB3: Joel Persson is also a rookie, and probably more of a rookie irt total pro experience than Bear. Obviously the games when Perssson are out skew that a bit, but I’m going to say him losing 5v5 minutes or probably a byproduct of the extra minutes he gets on special teams, really proving your prior point of “an experienced coach choosing him to play the most TOI on the team” to be moot, as he doesn’t.

    Persson’s 4 x 5 TOI/GP is 4 secs. You’re right, KBomb’s carrying him.

    Klef gets his 4 x 5 with KRusty. Nurse with Bear. All four play significant shorthanded minutes. Klef gets about a minute more per game than Nurse.

    That probably says more about who the other partner is than anything else. My point is nowhere near moot.

  134. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: I would wager that a week from now The Oilers are fourth in the baseball standings.

    ROFLMAO, I’ll call MLB and let them know. Might get a pennant!

  135. Material Elvis says:

    GMB3: I’m referencing his advanced metrics for more than just this year. In fact his numbers look a lot better with the rookie D this year. Nor am I looking for a whipping boy. My opinion is that he’s not a top 3 D, andnis not worth 7 million. Much over 6 would be a mistake.

    In fact, I think his value is higher around the league than it should be, so when younger LD are pushing up the pipeline, I think he’s the prime candidate for trade for an impact F. Probably has more name value than Klef, and Klef is better and on a better contract. Not exactly what I call whipping boy status. Rusty will remain my whipping boy for the time being.

    Neither can carry Russell on his offhand for long samples. So to my way of thinking, they are equally effective and have some flaws. I’d give the edge to Klefbom at the moment. Nurse will be effective for longer so I’d rather keep him (Klefbom’s next contract will be Sweetheart’s ugly cousin). I’d keep both. Lots of coverage until Broberg is ready.

  136. Munny says:

    Material Elvis,

    Yup there’s no rush to move either. Get Nurse signed and keep’em both till a younger guy is pushing one or the other off the team.

    Get good players, keep good players.

  137. Theil says:

    Munny: ROFLMAO, I’ll call MLB and let them know.Might get a pennant.

    Definitely good comedy coming out of that crotchety old man, I’m glad I’m not the only one amused by him

  138. Munny says:

    Theil: Definitely good comedy coming out of that crotchety old man, I’m glad I’m not the only one amused by him

    He’s priceless! Every court needs a jester. We didn’t even have to look for ours, he just volunteered!

  139. Material Elvis says:

    Munny:
    Material Elvis,

    Yup there’s no rush to move either. Get Nurse signed and keep’em both till a younger guy is pushing one or the other off the team.

    Get good players, keep good players.

    Get good players, keep good players, focus on upgrading the bad players.

  140. godot10 says:

    Munny:
    godot10,

    I noticed you didn’t mention Larsson…

    Larsson had a horrible year last year. I need to see reversion to historical norms of performance. He is also one year from UFA status next summer. His contract expires for the expansion draft.

    So lots of moving parts about performance, timing of an extension, and expansion draft issues.

  141. Munny says:

    godot10,

    Of any of the D, he’s the one in most danger of a trade, IMO. And I think we all agree with your point that we need to see a bounce-back year from him.

  142. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: There were two possible outcomes and Nurse didn’t deal with either.

    Nurse started to take Schmaultz, but then he saw Nugent-Hopkins chasing him. So he started towards Stepan, but then saw Nugent-Hopkins fail to keep up to Schmaultz, so he reverted to his first instinct to take the puck carrier and ended up in no man’s land.

    Nurse first instinct was right, but Nugent-Hopkins chose the wrong forward to chase, which befuddled Nurse. Nugetn-Hopkins should have chased Stepan, the trailer. Instead he was beaten by Schmaultz who even had time to slow down to wait for Stepan.

    And Neal was being useless.

  143. Munny says:

    Is it snowing as hard in Edmonton as it is here in Cochrane?

    I’d hate for that Blues flight to be delayed…

    I mean it’s already a shame they’re losing an hour flying East…

    A downright shame. 😉

  144. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Nurse started to take Schmaultz, but then he saw Nugent-Hopkins chasing him.So he started towards Stepan, but then saw Nugent-Hopkins fail to keep up to Schmaultz,so he reverted to his first instinct to take the puck carrier and ended up in no man’s land.

    Nurse first instinct was right, but Nugent-Hopkins chose the wrong forward to chase, which befuddled Nurse.Nugetn-Hopkins should have chased Stepan, the trailer.Instead he was beaten by Schmaultz who even had time to slow down to wait for Stepan.

    And Neal was being useless.

    Yep, Schmaltz made 3 Oiler skaters look like idjuts in about a 5 second span. To read these last 200 or so comments one might think it was all one player’s fault. It wasn’t. He got beat, & so did all his teamates, goalie included.

    Same game I saw Oliver Ekman-Larsson look like a compleat schmuck on at least 3 different occasions. Shit happens, & it happens fast.

  145. godot10 says:

    Munny: Persson’s 4 x 5 TOI/GP is 4 secs.You’re right, KBomb’s carrying him.

    Klef gets his 4 x 5 with KRusty.Nurse with Bear.All four play significant shorthanded minutes.Klef gets about a minute more per game than Nurse.

    That probably says more about who the other partner is than anything else.My point is nowhere near moot.

    Nurse and Bear (as a pair) are needed more at even strength, which is why Klefbom and Russell get more PK time. Klefbom and Persson (as a pair) AND Russell and Benning (as a pair) cannot play all situations at even strength like Nurse and Bear can.

  146. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: Sure.
    The Canucks went all in on trying to score a goal to winthe game and failed.
    Didn’t work and they lost.
    Shit happens.

    Meanwhile Nurse had a chance to break up a play and was a pylon.

    They looked like a bunch of clowns. Per usual over their 40+ years of existence.

  147. Wilde says:

    Harpers Hair:

    Conventional wisdom says let the goalie deal with the shot and negate the pass option.
    He did neither.

    that’s what we’re saying

  148. Wilde says:

    also I wanted to check up on last season’s game scores and see how much the estimated per 60’s lined up with the per game rates, and it was almost exactly right for the Dmen and a little bit more loose for the forwards while getting top third / / middle third / / bottom third groupings right

  149. ArmchairGM says:

    OilClog:
    Shitting on Nurse because the Coyotes executed a 2 on 1 to perfection is pretty hilarious, I mean to those that watched the entire game and know that blaming Nurse for the loss is ridiculous.

    But hey let’s pump the tires of the Yotes and Nucks while we two hand some sausage.

    Nurse shows up and brings it night in and night out, he literally needs to blow out his knees and hips for his next contract to not hold value. GM’s will always pay a high price for what Nurse is right now and what he’ll continue to blossom into.

    Regardless get good players, keep good players. On the 1% chance all the bubbling prospects beneath him ripen into gold then look at trading the fella. Until then Holland will most likely be handing onto him, he’s not the type to subtract talent when he’s trying to insulate talent.

    Wonder what McDavid would think of trading his good buddy Nurse, I’m sure moving him would Bode well in showing McDavid the Oilers are serious about building a team of winners around him.. Lol.

    When the Oilers are doing great, in the thick of the race why would some think that instead of enjoying the shit out of all this sweet unsustainable glory would anyone care about the winning % of Vancouver of Phoenix or anyone else. Sad.

    Nurse/Bear pairing have been incredibly important to this ride, going to need to set your blame sights elsewhere post movers.

    Well said.

  150. ArmchairGM says:

    OilClog: Until then Holland will most likely be handing onto him

    This part is a little gross, however.

  151. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    A poster said: “RNH was at fault for the OT goal”

    Another poster said: “Nurse was a bigger culprit”

    Each argued their side.

    Then the thread decends into tribalism where “” X” player isn’t a problem yada yada yada””

    Can’t we discuss individual plays anymore without thesis and accusations “who is a problem” etc, etc and tribalism about our favourite/non-favourite players?

    No single play is immune from dissection because the players involved are good.

    No player is immune from discussion about that play because he may have had an otherwise fine game/career.

    You are all better than that.

    I hope.

  152. ArmchairGM says:

    This thread reminds me of something LT likes to say, can’t quite put my finger on it: something something single events…

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    This thread reminds me of something LT likes to say, can’t quite put my finger on it: something something single events…

    Those events can still be discussed.

    Otherwise what’s the fucking point of participating in this comments section?

  154. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Can’t we discuss individual plays anymore without thesis and accusations “who is a problem” etc, etc and tribalism about our favourite/non-favourite players?

    You are so stubborn. Lennart Petrell was never the LW we needed at the time.

  155. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Subscribe

    Come on WG…something about “one years experience five times over”….I learned from posters like you not to let single events skew the whole picture. Nurse’s stats were insane last game which is why I found your comment to be so unlike you.

    You made a joke a few weeks ago saying something like “Love someone like Pouzar loves Nurse”…it isn’t that I love Nurse its just I find his criticism so fucking Over the top it’s laughable.

  156. meanashell11 says:

    Just got caught up on this thread. What a disaster.

  157. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/1351007/2019/11/06/lowetide-how-far-away-is-evan-bouchard-and-what-role-will-he-play-with-the-oilers/

  158. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Those events can still be discussed.

    Otherwise what’s the fucking point of participating in this comments section?

    Sure they can. But I’m seeing people making sweeping statements about a player’s career based on said single event while ignoring wider data sets.

  159. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Sure they can. But I’m seeing people making sweeping statements about a player’s career based on said single event while ignoring wider data sets.

    This. Thank you.

  160. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr: He is playing top pairing minutes with a virtual rookie in Bear and the team is first in the Pacific division. The man is still learning. Yes he will make some mistakes. That goes with being a young D man. There have been far more egregious mistakes by players with more experience. If you want a whipping boy I guess that is your right but if you look at the bigger picture I think you might realize you are over reacting.

    Virtual Rookie is Virtually our best right handed defenseman.
    You make it sound like hes dragging a corpse around, instead of getting the best partner

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Sure they can. But I’m seeing people making sweeping statements about a player’s career based on said single event while ignoring wider data sets.

    Well yeah, that’s what I was railing on about.

    It was both sides.

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Come on WG…something about “one years experience five times over”….I learned from posters like you not to let single events skew the whole picture. Nurse’s stats were insane last game which is why I found your comment to be so unlike you.

    You made a joke a few weeks ago saying something like “Love someone like Pouzar loves Nurse”…it isn’t that I love Nurse its just I find his criticism so fucking Over the top it’s laughable.

    Absolutely.

    Doesn’t mean that I can’t look at that play and get Ladi Smid never learning to cover the back door play flashbacks.

    The sweeping statements were on both side.

  163. who says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/1351007/2019/11/06/lowetide-how-far-away-is-evan-bouchard-and-what-role-will-he-play-with-the-oilers/

    Good article but I wonder if we see Bouchard in Edmonton at all this year.
    When Larsson gets back there will be 4 righty dmen ahead of him on the depth chart. Even if the Oilers trade one there is still no room for Bouchard.
    The wild card in all thia is the play of Persson going forward. If he can’t handle the pace at the NHL level, and if the Oilers trade Benning, there would be a spot on the 3rd pairing.
    If that happens the Oilers may prefer to promote Jones or Lagesson. There is a pretty big upside to keeping Bouchard on the farm the entire year if it delays the start of his ELC. Makes a big difference on the cap moving forward.

  164. jp says:

    GMB3: His career body of work isn’t great either though. So you’re right, single moments can in fact be just single moments, but this seems to be in line with what we have seen so far.

    RAPM has him nearly a standard deviation below replacement in xGA/60 over the past 3 years, and take advanced stats for what you will, there’s a reason he shows poorly.

    GMB3: RAPM accounts for teammates. Andrej Sekera managed to be just fine with Kris Russell in a second pairing role in 16-17 yet Oiler fans still bitched he was overpaid. xGA and xGF are flawed stats, sure, but it’s more enlightening than screaming about it into the void over and over because … what… you just think so? Excellent job proving he’s a 7 million dollar a year defensemen.

    Klefbom is also second in the league in overall TOI. So Tippet hasn’t.

    This is exactly my point. You’re admitting he struggled to break even. He can’t drive a pairing to success, he takes more penalties than he draws, he’s suspect defensively and gets a ton of ice time with arguably the most lethal duo in the NHL. Points have never been a strong way to evaluate D, not sure when that’s changed.

    His numbers have improved this year? Sure, a bit. Maybe we should save that big cheque for his D partner then.

    I don’t know much about RAPM and can’t get a feel for it because it’s behind a paywall.

    If it accounts for teammates I can’t see how using xGA RAPM is a fair measure of Nurse though. You’re dinging him for playing with McDavid and also using the stat that McDavid helps the least (in fact McDavid’s lines have leaked GA, playing with him would be a strong detriment to defensive numbers). All of the benefit of strong teammates here would be on the GF side which you’re ignoring.

    Nurse has played big minutes on a poor team. In the past 3 years (starting in 17-18) Nurse is basically even GA/60rel, +5 in GF% rel and is also even in xGA/60rel. I have no idea how you run that through RAPM and come up with him being a standard deviation below replacement level. His PDO is 1002 so he hasn’t been lucky.

    If a statistic is giving you numbers/results that make no sense… well then maybe it’s bs stat, at least in the context being used.

  165. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Absolutely.

    Doesn’t mean that I can’t look at that play and get Ladi Smid never learning to cover the back door play flashbacks.

    The sweeping statements were on both side.

    Man I wish I were around in the Smid days!

  166. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer: Virtual Rookie is Virtually our best right handed defenseman.
    You make it sound like hes dragging a corpse around, instead of getting the best partner

    The Virtual rookie would look like a virtual rookie if he was playing those minutes on the top pairing with Kris Russell instead of Darnell Nurse.

    Nurse and Bear are a good match. Each individuals strengths helps cover for the others weaknesses.

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