Clusters

I’m always looking for draft clusters, a congregation of players over two seasons who provide substantial roster solutions to three or more of the 12 ‘key’ roster spots (top two lines, third-line center, top 4D, goaltender). It’s an elusive thing, but can sustain an organization from entry through Stanley. Can the Oilers 2015-2016 drafts fuel this team with as many as five key roster men?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect: Ethan Bear. The 2015 Ethan Bear was a good NHL bet. This Ethan Bear is something else.
  • New Pierre Lebrun: How Leon Draisaitl’s contract has gone from outlier to bargain in just 2 years
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers managed without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and why the solutions aren’t ideal for the long haul
  • Lowetide: Tyler Benson posting a strong November in hopes of an Oilers recall
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A superstar shines, a goaltender stands tall and a ‘road hockey’ power play helps the Oilers return to form
  • Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s deployment is a sign the Oilers need a No. 3 centre
  • Jonathan Willis: A Jesse Puljujarvi trade is an opportunity of which only one NHL team gets to take advantage
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanLeon Draisaitl takes the blame as the Oilers’ struggles against lowly foes continues
  • Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ college procurement could increase under Ken Holland
  • Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut

FIVE GUYS

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are the heart and soul of these Edmonton Oilers and will be for some time. It would be an enormous help to the organization if three men who were drafted in the same years—Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and William Lagesson—can play in the heart of the game.

The emergence of Bear at the start of the season and the strong recent showing of Jones offers some hope for Lagesson joining the party. It was just last season the trio displayed similar goal differentials as members of the Bakersfield Condors.

I’m using Eric Rodgers’ numbers this time, the even strength numbers give us more separation. Lagesson had a strong year in 2018-19 and may be able to transition to the NHL over the coming months. Evan Bouchard is likely to do the same, but his cap hit is on a more expensive trajectory. Lagesson should be an inexpensive player next year and that has outstanding value for the Edmonton Oilers. If he can play top 4D, even in a pinch? Music!

One item about Lagesson that rarely gets mentioned is his offensive output at even strength. He’ll never get power-play time in the NHL but finds a way to make himself useful as well as ornamental at even strength.

TOP 20 PROSPECTS 2011 SUMMER

A few notes: I missed on two prospects who played in the NHL. Both Mark Arcobello (139 games) and Taylor Fedun (120 games) were undrafted free agents who beat the odds.

I always wonder what ‘reasonable’ is for a top 20 prospects list. Using the ‘key 12′ positions on a roster as the line in the sand, I think Nuge, Klefbom, Petry are locks. I’d like to include Rieder but the ’12’ doesn’t include third-line wingers, only the centers.

You know, that’s not much for a top 20 prospects list. It should be more, right? I think so. Lots of high picks in there.

TOP 20 PROSPECTS SUMMER 2015

This list is basically the heart and soul of the current Edmonton Oilers, but we’re starting to see a second wind this season. Clearly McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse qualify for the ’12’ roster spots, and Bear appears to be there as of this season. Jones is emerging 20 games behind Bear, that could mean five names from this list. Add Lagesson? You can say it’s a stretch but his defensive chops are impressive.

TOP 20 PROSPECTS SUMMER 2017

This is a very recent top 20, so there’s miles to go with everybody. The problem here is that the first rounders aren’t way out in front already, meaning the Oilers will need some luck. Ethan Bear appears to be exactly what the doctor ordered, Jones looks good too. I don’t have William Lagesson on the list (No. 21) nor Patrick Russell (No. 33).

There are many candidates for ’12’ positions, including Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson, Skinner, Wells, Samorukov. Marino would be on his way to being a counter but he’s in faraway Pittsburgh now.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy and fun morning starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic joins us to talk about the Oilers current run, what to do about No. 3 center and the summer cap for 2020. Andrew Peard also joins us to talk Oil Kings and their recent travails, Tom Gazzola pops in for some Oilers chat and we’ve left a segment open just in case we get some CFL news. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter and it’s going to be a fun ride.

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363 Responses to "Clusters"

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  1. Boiled-in-Oil says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    I don’t know why people waste so much energy hating on other teams, especially the Canucks.

    It takes no energy for me to hate the Dys.

    It’s like breathing.

    Fuck them.

    And the Romans. What have they ever done for us.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: We are on the same page on that the team has holes, on how they could patch them we may differ a bit and I have no problemwith you being wrong here just kidding

    Ha!

    You sound like me.

  3. Reja says:

    Munny: Because MacKinnon is not Stepan.Nor is Kadri.

    I obviously don’t know how the Avs will run it… Zona chose to run their speedster Grabner out against The Legion of Zoom. But I can see COL looking at Sam Gamgee’s slow hairy feet and licking their chops.

    Sure the frack helps those two wingers are out.

    If we had Kadri I would be smiling from ear to ear. So glad the Calgary deal fell through if that deal is made we would have lost a 14 and counting goal scorer. I stated the obvious when Holland took over get 2 more top sixers which is easier said then done and a 3rd line Centre that can PK, chip in offensively and win big faceoffs. We scored in on the trade of the decade for us in a good way. We still have the assets and time to acquire a Josh Anderson ( buy low) and a Pageau to take a run at Lord Stanley.

  4. Material Elvis says:

    Pouzar: I hate every team in the division. Every Frickin One Of Em.

    Plus the Leafs. I hate watch them.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Boiled-in-Oil: And the Romans. What have they ever done for us.

    Well the roads go without saying.

  6. Pouzar says:

    Material Elvis: Plus the Leafs.I hate watch them.

    I hear ya…

    Now that the Oilers are contending the intra-divisional games are so much more fun.
    Every game is huge so I am amped up a little more to watch those.

  7. Material Elvis says:

    Pouzar: I hear ya…

    Now that the Oilers are contending the intra-divisional games are so much more fun.
    Every game is huge so I amped up a little more to watch those.

    You seem more engaged and happier. How’s the new job going?

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: What would said 5-year extension look like? $4.5M or so?

    Given how he’s scoring right now it might be more.

    I’d be ok with 4.5 for sure ok at 5 too.

  9. pts2pndr says:

    who: Good post.
    My thoughts exactly.
    I don’t know why people waste so much energy hating on other teams, especially the Canucks.
    Other than Roussell, who may struggle to get playing time when they’re healthy, can you name another dink on this team? Virtanen, maybe?

    Its not the team. If you lived in B.C. over the last 10 – 15 years you would understand that people like HH are the less arrogant of their fan base. Their favorite team to trash is and has been the Oilers. They due get more subdued when you ask them how many cups their Canucks have won. I personally think they are building a nice team that will be fun to watch.

  10. tileguy says:

    McNuge93: Maybe we could send them Hitch for a third round pick

    We could include all that melted bronze from the statue.

  11. Harpers Hair says:

    Boiled-in-Oil: And the Romans. What have they ever done for us.

    Well they invented bathing…so there’s that.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra:
    Darth Tu,

    Every team has prospects as good as Broberg and Bouchard.Most have better, prospects as an area growth is not a comparative advantage.

    I also don’t think we can expect McDavid and Draisatl to continue scoring at this rate.What they are doing is incredible.

    I’m not sure that every team has two top 10 drafted high potential d-men matriculating. Some do, of course, but not all and not necessarily most.

    I do think this type of offence from McDavid is reasonable to expect going forward – maybe not Drai but Mcdavid isn’t doing anything unreasonably predicted or shocking.

    Of course, McDavid will absolutely get better – there are various parts of his game where he will improve including his defensive awareness, his faceoffs and even his relationship with the refs.

    McDavid may be at his offensive peak but I don’t think he’s close to his overall peak.

    Klefbom is just at the beginning of his prime – this is healthy Klefbom and, yes, there is some room for improvement as 2-way d-men often improve in their late 20s.

    Jones/Bear – I can agree there is no sure thing and maybe one (or both) will regress back but, given their ages and the amount of NHL games played (and how d-men don’t even peak until their mid to late 20s), I do think its reasonable to suggest both will improve not only over the next few years but also as this season goes on.

  13. Harpers Hair says:

    PennersPancakes: Cool. Looks like a player taking advantage of the extra opportunity. Good for him. All things considered a 1st isnt bad at all terms of value.

    He’s also playing first unit PP so I wouldn’t think 70 points is out of the question.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: It appears the Oilers strength of schedule is easier for the remainder of the year as well:

    http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php

    Only the Coyotes, Ducks and Flames have an easier schedule from the Pacific.

    I think it was the OilCan podcast (Wills and Bowman) from yesterday that mentioned out of the 56 (I think) games left – there are more against non-playoff teams (current non-playoff teams) than playoff teams and, once the Oilers return home from the road, they will have played a few more road games.

  15. Pouzar says:

    Material Elvis: You seem more engaged and happier.How’s the new job going?

    Oh yeah that…….long story……….

    Well…..they offered me the job. Thing is, it’s for a heckuva lot less (20k less…yeah).

    Apparently the salary range that was advertised on Workopolis (the ad I responded to) was a lot lower than the one listed on their Careers webpage. I didn’t realize this until they offered me the job and they called me to ask a few questions before sending out the offer letter. They said they have no idea how that happened…Le sigh…Very frustrating as I spent a shit load of time preparing for the technical testing and interview…anyways…..

    Another HR lady got in touch with me later that day (last Friday) and said they could offer me the upper end of that job classification (a 20k hit from my current salary) and to take the weekend to think about it. Well from my view there was nothing to think about. That is a haircut I can’t afford right now. So just today a HR person contacted me again to see if I made a final decision and we just started talking. She said that she would like me to talk to the manager over there and that they have a number of great projects coming up. That’s where it’s at now. I don’t think much will change as I don’t think the manager has any power to offer me anything more but I will keep an open mind. They tried to sell me on the fact that promotions could come fast if things work out blah blah blah. But 20k is a hekuva hole to get out of and once I am there who knows what can happen.

    Honestly if I was a young single guy I would take the hit and be all over it. So much more opportunity in all facets (education, promotions, etc.). However I am in my forties with a family and a new home.

    I will let you know how the meeting goes.

    Cheers

  16. Pouzar says:

    Pierre LeBrun
    @PierreVLeBrun
    ·
    35m
    Oilers have had 4-5 teams circle back over the past few days. I think Edm’s preference would be to get a forward in return they can use now. If not, forward prospect plus a draft pick. May not move him before Sunday if offers don’t improve. Feb 24 or June also options for trade

  17. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Profit:
    v4ance,

    Yeah his model does, I think I remember reading it was actually a blend of multiple previous years, which is my point, I think that weighting is too high.

    I went down a bit of a rabbit hole over lunch and looked at different ranking systems. Interestingly, one of the sites uses a blend of other rankings:

    http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/team-power-rankings.php

    Most of these probability models then use a simulation (1000x or whatever) on top of a power ranking model, so theoretically a blended power ranking model using multiple inputs would allow for less “noisy” results. If anyone clicked on the link above it shows:

    Oilers Power Rankings
    Sagarian: 8
    numberFire: 21
    MoneyPuck: 5
    Massey: 6
    Average: 10

    So that’s a simple average (8+21+5+6 = 40 /4 = 10) with numberFire really out on its own. I had never heard of them before so I went in and looked. I’d be highly skeptical of their model too as there are a number of things that don’t pass the eye test.

    https://www.numberfire.com/nhl/teams/power-rankings

    They rank using this nERD quotient, which I didn’t find the definition of in 5 minutes of poking around. Interestingly it seems the model they have running the probabilities is ok – shows the Oilers estimated point total at 95.3 with a 77.8% probability of getting into the playoffs. That seems reasonable. But the nERD quotient is -0.13 which ranks the Oilers 21st, just in front of Philly (who have a 33.8% chance of the playoffs) and just behind SJ (who have a 39.2% of playoffs – which seems low). Anyway, the next lowest rank team which has a 75%+ chance of playoffs according to their own model is WPG which is ranked 14 and Arizona (81.8% chance of getting in) which is tied for 13th with Calgary (lol) in nERD. There’s a glaring and obvious disconnect with their rankings – not just Oilers, everyone.

    My conclusion? Buyer beware on the probabilities, but Dom at 67% and numberFire here with Oilers ranked 21st are obvious outliers. I think reasonably speaking the Oilers are ranking between 5 and 8th in the league with a 75% – 85% shot at getting into the playoffs.

    What’s the ol’ US Thanksgiving rule? 77.5% if in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving. https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/importance-nhl-playoff-spot-american-thanksgiving/ (for fun look at the quote from Chia last year)

    Two other factors – US Thanksgiving is LATE this year (painful for retailers/ecommerce) and the Oilers aren’t just in the playoffs, they’ve banked some extra points to be up at the top of the standings. 80%+ playoff expectation seems very reasonable as of today.

    I think the big reason most models don’t like EDM to continue their points % is due to Special Teams.

    Pretty much all of EDM’s goal differential is driven by special teams up to this point in the season.

    Specials Teams are +11 and EDM’s overall goal diff is +12.

    1) PK SV%

    EDM PK SV% is currently is .918.

    NHL average is ~.875 every year.

    Top 5 full season PK SV% last 10 seasons:

    OTT 12/13 .927
    ANA 15/16 .912
    LAK 11/12 .912
    COL 14/15 .911
    NJD 11/12 .911

    Is it possible EDM’s 4v5 SV% will be the second best in a decade? Yes.

    Is it probable? No.

    So the models regress that back to league average.

    2) PP SH%

    EDM’s PP SH% is currently 19.7%

    NHL average is ~12.6%

    Top 5 PP SH% full season last 10 seasons:

    TBY 18/19 22.2%
    WSH 12/13 20.3% (48 game season)
    BOS 18/19 18.2%
    STL 15/16 17.8%
    PIT 18/18 17.7%

    I think this one has a bit more sustain given the sick talent on PP1 and their now ~3 year familiarity with each other, but if you put a gun to my head and asked if I thought it’d finish the season above 17% I’d say no.

    So the models look at the last 3 years of EDM PP SH% and see:

    18/19 15.0%
    17/18 9.1%
    16/17 14.8%

    So they regress EDM PP SH% to ~ 14% for the rest of the year.

    That’s why I think the models don’t like EDM to continue their current points %.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Numenius: Thanks for bringing some perspective to the discussion. I’m with you on wanting to avoid the holier than thou reactions this issue so often brings.

    As for what we should think of Peters, I think it helps to have the exact wording of what he supposedly said. From TSN:

    “He walked in before a morning pre-game skate and said ‘Hey Akim, I’m sick of you playing that n—– s—,’ ” Aliu told TSN, with Peters, who was then the Ice Hogs head coach, referring to Aliu’s selection of hip-hop music. “He said ‘I’m sick of hearing this n—–s f—— other n—–s in the ass stuff.’”

    So Peters called Akim’s music “n—– s—“, and he specifically objected to the obscene kind of lyrics like “n—–s f—— other n—–s in the ass”.

    The objection to the lyrics makes sense and isn’t a problem in itself. Said properly, it’d be something any of us could agree with. But the fact that he then calls hip hop “n—– s—” in such a derogatory way and towards a black man on top of it, I’d say undercuts any benefit of the doubt and qualifies his comments as racist.

    I try not to chime on the political stuff on this blog, but I have to here.

    This is exactly what I wanted to say.

    I hate cancel culture and this isn’t that.

    Context matters and what Peter’s said was beyond the pale.

    It was in 2009 and not 1953 in Mississippi.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Our second line is going to get taken out behind the woodshed and spanked tomorrow night.

    Road game… tough match-ups.

    We are going to need plus nights from L1 AND the Easy Rieders.

    As I posted earlier, I’m not convinced the 2nd line can bring the game that they brought on Sunday night consistency, or even more times than not.

    On the other hand, prior the the Yotes game, the prognostications were mostly along the same lines and the Gagner has a shot attempt share of something like 23 – 7.

    Yes, I know, the Avs are a faster and more skilled team but we don’t know what we don’t know.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Kemp doesn’t need to be signed until August 15, 2021. Kesselring is August 15, 2023.

    Reserve list decisions for this summer:

    Filip Berglund: June 1, 2020
    Markus Niemeläinen: June 1, 2020
    Graham McPhee: August 15, 2020

    I think Berglund should be signed, I doubt the other 2 will be.

    You are right and, yes, I knew that, just typed the wrong year (was thinking end of next season but typed out the end of next year).

    There are some rumblings that Kemp may turn pro after this season but nothing even close to official.

    Berglund is a no-brainer sign (if he’s willing).

    I don’t see Niemeläinen being signed

    I don’t see McPhee being signed to an NHL deal but potentially an AHL deal like V. Deharnais.

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Profit:
    Nit64,

    I’m not saying he’s doing something different than what he has said, I’m just saying I am questioning thepredictive veracity of previous years performance.

    I would pretty strongly doubt that performance of a team last year one third of the way through this season has ANY impact on current performance. Maybe you could say for the first portion, 25%? 10% of the current year?

    The alternative are these “power ranking” models which are noisy and full of problems too. But they “seem” much more reasonable than Dom’s model at this point – if what we’re talking about here is predictive power, which is what I am talking about.

    Predicting Team and player performance using previous years usually works pretty well.

    The usual weighting is:

    50% season previous
    30% 2 season previous
    20% 3 seasons previous

    When you examine the whole population of players and teams it works well.

    Where does this approach fail?

    On the player level it fails when a player changes his most common linemates. Massive variable in player performance and the single most important variable.

    On the team level it fails when a team changes coaches and/or highest leverage players (goalie/top 3 F, top 2 D)

    Those changes don’t happen often in the population as a whole but EDM changed coaches (and in EDM’s case the change is massive) and the goalie deployment in regards to rest (plus changing Talbot for Smith) won’t be caught by the models imo.

  22. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: As I posted earlier, I’m not convinced the 2nd line can bring the game that they brought on Sunday night consistency, or even more times than not.

    On the other hand, prior the the Yotes game, the prognostications were mostly along the same lines and the Gagner has a shot attempt share of something like 23 – 7.

    Yes, I know, the Avs are a faster and more skilled team but we don’t know what we don’t know.

    One game at a time. They played great last game until the second line shits the bed the bed I’m all aboard the Gagner train. All we need is Sam and company on a heater for 4 or 5 games which we bank some valuable points especially against the knuckleheads.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Numenius: Good points here.

    I’d add that Edm will almost certainly lose the 3rd rounder (Neal trade), so they’ll be even less likely to move the 2nd or 1st.

    Also a good point (although, they have alot of expiring contracts that could bring back another 3rd round potentially – Granlund, Sheahan, Archibald, Nygard, Hass) – depending on their play the rest of the season.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish: Are you aware if he got many shots on net or minutes played?

    Just over 21 minutes but, not, not sure about shots on net (he has been a massive volume shooter generally through the season though).

  25. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    There are some rumblings that Kemp may turn pro after this season but nothing even close to official.

    Berglund is a no-brainer sign (if he’s willing).

    I don’t see Niemeläinen being signed

    I don’t see McPhee being signed to an NHL deal but potentially an AHL deal like V. Deharnais.

    One thing to keep in my, and this isn’t specifically aimed at OP but more a general thought, is Ken Holland may evaluate these players differently than the previous regime. Berglund would be my top choice but we don’t know if Holland feels the same way. These kids (mentioned above) are all orphans now, just as Erik Gustafsson was when the organization decided not to sign him (after a GM change).

  26. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think the big reason most models don’t like EDM to continue their points % is due to Special Teams.

    Pretty much all of EDM’s goal differential is driven by special teams up to this point in the season.

    Specials Teams are +11 and EDM’s overall goal diff is +12.

    1) PK SV%

    EDM PK SV% is currently is .918.

    NHL average is ~.875 every year.

    Top 5 full season PK SV% last 10 seasons:

    OTT 12/13 .927
    ANA 15/16 .912
    LAK 11/12 .912
    COL 14/15 .911
    NJD 11/12 .911

    Is it possible EDM’s 4v5 SV% will be the second best in a decade? Yes.

    Is it probable? No.

    So the models regress that back to league average.

    2) PP SH%

    EDM’s PP SH% is currently 19.7%

    NHL average is ~12.6%

    Top 5 PP SH% full season last 10 seasons:

    TBY 18/19 22.2%
    WSH 12/13 20.3% (48 game season)
    BOS 18/19 18.2%
    STL 15/16 17.8%
    PIT 18/18 17.7%

    I think this one has a bit more sustain given the sick talent on PP1 and their now ~3 year familiarity with each other, but if you put a gun to my head and asked if I thought it’d finish the season above 17% I’d say no.

    So the models look at the last 3 years of EDM PP SH% and see:

    18/19 15.0%
    17/18 9.1%
    16/17 14.8%

    So they regress EDM PP SH% to ~ 14% for the rest of the year.

    That’s why I think the models don’t like EDM to continue their current points %.

    Thanks for this.

  27. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar: Oh yeah that…….long story……….

    Well…..they offered me the job. Thing is, it’s for a heckuva lot less (20k less…yeah).

    Apparently the salary range that was advertised on Workopolis (the ad I responded to) was a lot lower than the one listed on their Careers webpage. I didn’t realize this until they offered me the job and they called me to ask a few questions before sending out the offer letter.They said they have no idea how that happened…Le sigh…Very frustrating as I spent a shit load of time preparing for the technical testing and interview…anyways…..

    Another HR lady got in touch with me later that day (last Friday) and said they could offer me the upper end of that job classification (a 20k hit from my current salary) and to take the weekend to think about it. Well from my view there was nothing to think about. That is a haircut I can’t afford right now. So just today a HR person contacted me again to see if I made a final decision and we just started talking. She said that she would like me to talk to the manager over there and that they have a number of great projects coming up. That’s where it’s at now. I don’t think much will change as I don’t think the manager has any power to offer me anything more but I will keep an open mind. They tried to sell me on the fact that promotions could come fast if things work out blah blah blah. But 20k is a hekuva hole to get out of and once I am there who knows what can happen.

    Honestly if I was a young single guy I would take the hit and be all over it. So much more opportunity in all facets (education, promotions, etc.). However I am in my forties with a family and a new home.

    I will let you know how the meeting goes.

    Cheers

    Take the job.

    The best chance you have to land a job is if you are already employed.

    You are already on the record with this potential new employer as not being comfortable with the wage. They have suggested that things could move quickly (promotions etc).

    SO,

    Either the promotions come quickly or you are free to persue other offers.

    Either way…you win….imo

    The #1 data point on any resume for an HR dept (besides Education and achievments) is Continuous Employment History. Top Achievers are almost never not employed.

  28. Andy Dufresne says:

    Really good piece of Sports Journalism by Spector on JP.

    Things are not looking good.

  29. Andy Dufresne says:

    Harpers Hair: Well they invented bathing…so there’s that.

    Yeah…..and now every day we’ve got to shower, and shave, and put on a shirt and tie……Fuckin Romans……

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: One thing to keep in my, and this isn’t specifically aimed at OP but more a general thought, is Ken Holland may evaluate these players differently than the previous regime. Berglund would be my top choice but we don’t know if Holland feels the same way. These kids (mentioned above) are all orphans now, just as Erik Gustafsson was when the organization decided not to sign him (after a GM change).

    indeed a good point.

    With respect to Berglund, we do know that the Holland likes to shot in Europe and the organization has a relationship with Skelfeeta (and has been talking to them over the last number of months) – probably extra viewings given Broberg.

    Not sure about the college guys but Holland does know his college hockey and watches quite a bit of eastern college (or did), I believe.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    frjohnk: We dont have anybody in jr or the AHL where someone will definitely be in the top 6 in the next 2 years. Yeah maybe Lavoie, maybe Benson, but thats two maybes.

    Benson will be in the top-6 this year. Book it.

  32. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: One thing to keep in my, and this isn’t specifically aimed at OP but more a general thought, is Ken Holland may evaluate these players differently than the previous regime. Berglund would be my top choice but we don’t know if Holland feels the same way. These kids (mentioned above) are all orphans now, just as Erik Gustafsson was when the organization decided not to sign him (after a GM change).

    Is it necessarily a good thing that GM’s are attached to thier own picks?

    I see this as a bad thing. A flaw.

    They should be completely objective. Not worried about perceptions and somehow promoting players they drafted over those they didnt. No?

    I dont see the relevance of Gustafsson…he was just a late bloomer..No?

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    David Pasrtnak with a hat trick part way through the second period.
    Now had 23 goals in Boston’s 24th game.
    Marchand with 3 points and counting.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    ·
    4m
    Flames announce Peters will not coach tomorrow, Geoff Ward to fill in. Lawyer friend of mine says this a first step team needs in the process.

  35. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: Benson will be in the top-6 this year. Book it.

    Depends mainly on two things imo

    1) How well is the NHL team doing without him.

    2) Does Holland trade for one or two forwards at or before the deadline.

    If we’re in contention (inside the playoffs) it’ll be hard for him to crack the roster as anything other than injury backfill.

    Theres a popular meme around Holland ” Allowing players to over ripen in the minors”….I think a more accurate meme to attach to Holland and Tippett is..,”The NHL is not a developmental league”

  36. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Really good piece of Sports Journalism by Spector on JP.

    Things are not looking good.

    Yep. Who quits their million dollar job playing hockey at 21?

  37. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    Harpers Hair:
    David Pasrtnak with a hat trick part way through the second period.
    Now had 23 goals in Boston’s 24th game.
    Marchand with 3 points and counting.

    Just ridiculous what they’re doing. Hate to admit it but on par with Leonnor McSaitl.

  38. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    David Pasrtnak with a hat trick part way through the second period.
    Now had 23 goals in Boston’s 24th game.
    Marchand with 3 points and counting.

    Please bring back your percentage updates of the western conference.

  39. Andy Dufresne says:

    Reja: Please bring back your percentage updates of the western conference.

    HAAAA HA HA hahaha….

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Speaking of Kemp, he has an assist and is actually plus 1 even though Yale is down 5-2 in the third.

    Rasanen with a goal and an assist, a couple of shots and plus 2

    McPhee with an assist, a shot and plus 1.

  41. frjohnk says:

    Harpers Hair:
    David Pasrtnak with a hat trick part way through the second period.
    Now had 23 goals in Boston’s 24th game.
    Marchand with 3 points and counting.

    this made me look at the Bruins lineup.

    In 2014-15, Marchand had 42 points, his draft year partner in 2006, Lucic had 44 points.

    Today, both are 31 and while Lucic is close to being out of the league, Marchand is on pace to obliterate his 100 point season from last year

    Interesting how at the age of 30, the cliff comes to some players rather quickly. This has happened to Lucic. For a few players they actually get better at age 30. This seems to be Marchand

  42. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Benson will be in the top-6 this year. Book it.

    Sounds like he’s been playing with a new edge to his game which means to me that he is chomping at the bit. Its time to see what he is and what he has. Free Benson.

  43. Andy Dufresne says:

    pts2pndr: Its not the team. If you lived in B.C. over the last 10 – 15years you would understand that people like HH are the less arrogant of their fan base. Their favorite team to trash is and has been the Oilers.They due get more subdued when you ask them how many cups their Canucks have won. I personally think they are building a nice team that will be fun to watch.

    It wont be long before Stan Smyls sweater will have company in the rafters. 🙂

  44. frjohnk says:

    ArmchairGM: Benson will be in the top-6 this year. Book it.

    He already is.

    In the AHL.

  45. Harpers Hair says:

    Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville: Just ridiculous what they’re doing.Hate to admit it but on par with Leonnor McSaitl.

    Yeah…and the Bruins top line is much better defensively.

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    frjohnk: this made me look at the Bruins lineup.

    In 2014-15, Marchand had 42 points, his draft year partner in 2006, Lucic had 44 points.

    Today, both are 31 and while Lucic is close to being out of the league, Marchand is on pace to obliterate his 100 point season from last year

    Interesting how at the age of 30, the cliff comes to some players rather quickly.This has happened to Lucic. For a few players they actually get better at age 30.This seems to be Marchand

    And Bergeron at 34 is on pace for his best season ever.

  47. Andy Dufresne says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah…and the Bruins top line is much better defensively.

    If by top line you mean Patrice Bergeron….then yes…..yes he is.

  48. Munny says:

    Reja: Please bring back your percentage updates of the western conference.

    Now how is that supposed to be disruptive?

  49. Andy Dufresne says:

    Reja: Yep. Who quits their million dollar job playing hockey at 21?

    and refuses to play here or in the AHL….but instead chooses a league inferior to the AHL.

    Dont mean to yak..but its a tell.

    #AgentsAreImportant

  50. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah…and the Bruins top line is much better defensively.

    To be fair, McDavid and Kassian are stuck with Joe Colborne. I can only imagine if that line had Krejci or Bergeron.

  51. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: Benson will be in the top-6 this year. Book it.

    Yup. I called it for 20-25 games after the Jones debut and I’m sticking to my prediction.

    It’s the introduction of rookies by IV Drip. Slow bleed.

    Who knew you could do it this way?

  52. Munny says:

    frjohnk,

    Always bet on the guys who can skate.

    Y’know, like a 31 yo Taylor Hall.

    😉

  53. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    ·
    4m
    Flames announce Peters will not coach tomorrow, Geoff Ward to fill in. Lawyer friend of mine says this a first step team needs in the process.

    I would’ve thought the first step was to call a lawyer friend…

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Given how he’s scoring right now it might be more.

    I’d be ok with 4.5 for sure ok at 5 too.

    Yikes! That’s ridiculous money for a guy who averages 30 points per season, no matter how good he is defensively.

  55. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny:
    frjohnk,

    Always bet on the guys who can skate.

    Y’know, likea 31 yo Taylor Hall.

    So based on that logic, it follows that McDavid goes on to beat Gordies record and plays at age 53.

    Sounds about right to me 🙂

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne: Is it necessarily a good thing that GM’s are attached to thier own picks?

    I see this as a bad thing. A flaw.

    They should be completely objective. Not worried about perceptions and somehow promoting players they drafted over those they didnt. No?

    I dont see the relevance of Gustafsson…he was just a late bloomer..No?

    I think its more about not being attached to those you didn’t draft/acquire (than being attached to those you did).

    Gustaffson established himself as an NHL player in his draft plus 5 years (split between AHL and NHL) and popped out of nowhere in his draft plus 6.

    He is a great example of how sometimes/often d-men will be more productive offensively in the NHL than the AHL and other leagues – similar to Klefbom.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Sounds like he’s been playing with a new edge to his game which means to me that he is chomping at the bit. Its time to see what he is and what he has. Free Benson.

    I’m not sure the edge is completely new but its definitely there and more significant than last year – I think its a function of health.

  58. Side says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah…and the Bruins top line is much better defensively.

    I can practically see all of the holes you are digging in case you need to move your goal posts.

  59. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah…and the Bruins top line is much better defensively.

    Btw… I’ve been super intrigued by your garage door opener comment. Please enlighten.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne: and refuses to play here or in the AHL….but instead chooses a league inferior to the AHL.

    Dont mean to yak..but its a tell.

    #AgentsAreImportant

    There is all but zero chance he’d be in the AHL if he signed an NHL contract – neitehr the Oilers, nor would any acquiring team, expose him to waivers.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne: Is it necessarily a good thing that GM’s are attached to thier own picks?

    I see this as a bad thing. A flaw.

    They should be completely objective. Not worried about perceptions and somehow promoting players they drafted over those they didnt. No?

    I dont see the relevance of Gustafsson…he was just a late bloomer..No?

    Gustafsson was drafted at 20 and improved with each season after draft. He was on the radar and valued as a puck mover. He was drafted during one regime and the following GM passed on him. Gustafsson was absolutely worth a contract. Oilers chose not to do it.

  62. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think its more about not being attached to those you didn’t draft/acquire (than being attached to those you did).

    Gustaffson established himself as an NHL player in his draft plus 5 years (split between AHL and NHL) and popped out of nowhere in his draft plus 6.

    He is a great example of how sometimes/often d-men will be more productive offensively in the NHL than the AHL and other leagues – similar to Klefbom.

    ” I think its more about not being attached to those you didn’t draft/acquire (than being attached to those you did).”

    Not sure I get you. This sounds like a distinction without a difference.
    .

    “Gustaffson established himself as an NHL player in his draft plus 5 years (split between AHL and NHL) and popped out of nowhere in his draft plus 6.”

    A late bloomer….I dont see how being an orphan had any affect on him blooming late.
    .

    “He is a great example of how sometimes/often d-men will be more productive offensively in the NHL than the AHL and other leagues – similar to Klefbom”

    This is where we agree. The question then becomes, well how do you test for / predict these things? And what can any organization do to prevent losing players like Gustafsson or Marino. You only have so many roster spots. If these guys dont show you who they are through the normall process, what can you do? One small thing might be giving every prospect a 9 game trial at age 22 wether or not he ‘s “showing” well in the AHL.

  63. unca miltie says:

    This Bill Peters situation has been very thought provoking for me. I am older than most of you, grew up in the 1950’s. The harsh reality is that much of North America was racist including Western Canada. The Jackie Robinson story is true.(my grandson took me to the movie “42” much of the story I remember.)

    I remember seeing Willie O’Ree on TV. Why did Warren Moon come to Canada.

    As a white child growing up in rural Saskatchewan, there were names for black people, for oriental people, for other south east Asian people. Many of the white European people who came to Canada after the war were ostracised, neither the term displaced person nor its short form were a compliment. There is a nut that we eat at Christmas that I still don’t know the proper name for, but the N word was how I learned how to describe it.

    In essence, if you were different you were ridiculed. Pretty amazing to me that is the world I grew up in. Many of your parents and grand parents grew up in the same world. It is pretty amazing the progress that has been made in my lifetime and I am sure we have more to go.

  64. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar: Oh yeah that…….long story……….

    Well…..they offered me the job. Thing is, it’s for a heckuva lot less (20k less…yeah).

    Apparently the salary range that was advertised on Workopolis (the ad I responded to) was a lot lower than the one listed on their Careers webpage. I didn’t realize this until they offered me the job and they called me to ask a few questions before sending out the offer letter.They said they have no idea how that happened…Le sigh…Very frustrating as I spent a shit load of time preparing for the technical testing and interview…anyways…..

    Another HR lady got in touch with me later that day (last Friday) and said they could offer me the upper end of that job classification (a 20k hit from my current salary) and to take the weekend to think about it. Well from my view there was nothing to think about. That is a haircut I can’t afford right now. So just today a HR person contacted me again to see if I made a final decision and we just started talking. She said that she would like me to talk to the manager over there and that they have a number of great projects coming up. That’s where it’s at now. I don’t think much will change as I don’t think the manager has any power to offer me anything more but I will keep an open mind. They tried to sell me on the fact that promotions could come fast if things work out blah blah blah. But 20k is a hekuva hole to get out of and once I am there who knows what can happen.

    Honestly if I was a young single guy I would take the hit and be all over it. So much more opportunity in all facets (education, promotions, etc.). However I am in my forties with a family and a new home.

    I will let you know how the meeting goes.

    Cheers

    If you don’t mind me asking, what is your field of expertise?

  65. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Take the job.

    The best chance you have to land a job is if you are already employed.

    You are already on the record with this potential new employer as not being comfortable with the wage. They have suggested that things could move quickly (promotions etc).

    SO,

    Either the promotions come quickly or you are free to persue other offers.

    Either way…you win….imo

    The #1 data point on any resume for an HR dept (besides Education and achievments) is Continuous Employment History. Top Achievers are almost never not employed.

    Thanks for that…can you talk to Mrs. Pouzar?

  66. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: Gustafsson was drafted at 20 and improved with each season after draft. He was on the radar and valued as a puck mover. He was drafted during one regime and the following GM passed on him. Gustafsson was absolutely worth a contract. Oilers chose not to do it.

    Why did he stay in Europe so long? He was 23 1/2 when he first played for the Blackhawks / came to North America.

  67. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: If you don’t mind me asking, what is your field of expertise?

    Software dev.

    The last couple years I have been leading teams and moving towards Project Mgt. Less technical work but I can never be away from it 100% as I support a bunch of applications while helping with Dev on new Projects.

    Small shop so have to wear many hats.

  68. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar: Thanks for that…can you talk to Mrs. Pouzar?

    LOL…..I once gave career advice to my sister in law. She doesnt talk to me anymore. 🙂 Women view the world differently than men.

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville: Btw… I’ve been super intrigued by your garage door opener comment. Please enlighten.

    It is a very long story triggered by an extensive (hours long) conversation I had as a journalist decades ago.

    When I have the time, I’ll recount it in depth but suffice to say it deals with social isolation that ensued from women moving to the suburbs and losing the support networks (extended families) they previously enjoyed while raising children.

    We often don’t recognize the societal changes that occur right in front of us that are triggered by technological advances.

    For example, the garage door opener made it possible and quite likely, you would never meet your neighbors.

  70. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    unca miltie:
    This Bill Peters situation has been very thought provoking for me. I am older than most of you, grew up in the 1950’s. The harsh reality is that much of North America was racist including Western Canada. The Jackie Robinson story is true.(my grandson took me to the movie “42” much of the story I remember.)

    I remember seeing Willie O’Ree on TV. Why did Warren Moon come to Canada.

    As a white child growing up in rural Saskatchewan, there were names for black people, for oriental people, for other south east Asian people. Many of the white European people who came to Canada after the war were ostracised, neither the term displaced person nor its short form werea compliment. There is a nut that we eat at Christmas that I still don’t know the proper name for, but the N word was how I learned how to describe it.

    In essence, if you were different you were ridiculed. Pretty amazing to me that is the world I grew up in. Many of your parents and grand parents grew up in the same world. It is pretty amazing the progress that has been made in my lifetime and I am sure we have more to go.

    So sadly true.

    Honestly, your “nut” analogy really hit home to me. Growing up, that’s just what they were called. I believe they’re Brazil nuts… but man, how was that normal? I didn’t even know at the time what the other word was, other than what you called that particular nut. In other words, it was literally no different to me than the word Brazil, cashew or almond… crazy.

  71. godot10 says:

    unca miltie:
    This Bill Peters situation has been very thought provoking for me. I am older than most of you, grew up in the 1950’s. The harsh reality is that much of North America was racist including Western Canada. The Jackie Robinson story is true.(my grandson took me to the movie “42” much of the story I remember.)

    I remember seeing Willie O’Ree on TV. Why did Warren Moon come to Canada.

    As a white child growing up in rural Saskatchewan, there were names for black people, for oriental people, for other south east Asian people. Many of the white European people who came to Canada after the war were ostracised, neither the term displaced person nor its short form werea compliment. There is a nut that we eat at Christmas that I still don’t know the proper name for, but the N word was how I learned how to describe it.

    In essence, if you were different you were ridiculed. Pretty amazing to me that is the world I grew up in. Many of your parents and grand parents grew up in the same world. It is pretty amazing the progress that has been made in my lifetime and I am sure we have more to go.

    The eastern Europeans who homesteaded much of Alberta in the early 20th century, accomplishing something that eastern Canadians and Western Europeans failed to do, create an agriculture industry in Alberta, we’re called all sorts of vile things. The first internment camps in Canada were for Ukrainians.

  72. Thorin says:

    Pouzar: Software dev.

    As a fellow software dev, holy $20k is a big drop. Is your current job under threat of ending? If so, better to get out now. If not, is your current job causing your skills to stagnate? If so, pick a personal project (and publicize your code in github for future employers to see). If not, is it bad management making you look? If so, it might be worth the drop to get away from toxic management.

  73. Professor Q says:

    unca miltie,

    By the way, it’s a Brazil Nut.

    That took me 10-12ish years to figure out due to what certain people told me it was whilst growing up, and it was awkward as all heck during the discovery process.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Really good piece of Sports Journalism by Spector on JP.

    Things are not looking good.

    Not saying Spec is all wrong there, but it reads like a hit piece. Like he has an agenda.

  75. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Why did he stay in Europe so long? He was 23 1/2 when he first played for the Blackhawks / came to North America.

    Three years in Sweden vs. three years in Oklahoma to get to the same place. If you were a Swede, drafted in the late rounds, what would you choose. See Bergland. Staying in Sweden at home is a much better choice.

  76. unca miltie says:

    godot10: The eastern Europeans who homesteaded much of Alberta in the early 20th century,accomplishing something that eastern Canadians and Western Europeans failed to do, create an agriculture industry in Alberta, we’re called all sorts of vile things.The first internment camps in Canada were for Ukrainians.

    It is pretty amazing how cruel that society was and how difficult it must have been for the newcomers.

  77. Andy Dufresne says:

    godot10: Three years in Sweden vs. three years in Oklahoma to get to the same place. If you were a Swede, drafted in the late rounds, what would you choose.See Bergland.Staying in Sweden at home is a much better choice.

    Maybe not…..if you want to make the NHL.

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dr. Taboggan: To be fair, McDavid and Kassian are stuck with Joe Colborne.I can only imagine if that line had Krejci or Bergeron.

    I am always here for a DSF Colborne shot.

  79. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: Not saying Spec is all wrong there, but it reads like a hit piece. Like he has an agenda.

    Sometimes reality is harsh.

    Thats why they call it a “dose” of reality 🙂

  80. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I am always here for a DSF Colborne shot.

    chuckles……..

    Thats what we should do everytime DSF bends reality….A “Colborne Shot”

    #BoBNewhart

    #HiBob

  81. Munny says:

    Pouzar: Software dev.

    The last couple years I have been leading teams and moving towards Project Mgt. Less technical work but I can never be away from it 100% as I support a bunch of applications while helping with Dev on new Projects.

    Small shop so have to wear many hats.

    I’ve been following this story and I think there is some impatience at your end for change and novelty, righteous needs for sure, considering your devotion to your present employer.

    But when I hear “promotions” I get leery.

    You never know, for eg, on what basis a person gets promoted in an unknown culture. At the very least, I would want to know:

    1. The pay/benefits/holidays of the positions directly above you.
    2. How many times those positions have been filled in the past 5 years?
    3. How many of those times were they filled internally?

    I think that when HR holds that carrot out they should at least have to prove that it is a real carrot.

    I’d probably comb the relevant websites and see if I could see how much of their hiring is true.

    But with regards to my impolite remark about impatience above… I think you’re better off sticking where you are and finding the *right* job, rather than a *new* job. Doesn’t sound like you enjoy going through this process often in life, so make this one count.

    Take the time to find a company that can pay you what youre worth, offer room for dee-vel and a promotional ladder from there… a spot that involves interesting work and problems to solve… and is largely recession-proof with their product, if possible.

    This is your life and you and yours are worth it. I’d rather get paid more in a situation I know and spend five years looking for the right job, then wasting five years for $20k less, and then needing to go through the process again.

    Edit: or alternatively, start your own firm.

  82. godot10 says:

    unca miltie: It is pretty amazing how cruel that society was and how difficult it must have been for the newcomers.

    It was still better than Europe. Instead of being a serf farming for a feudal overlord, you got 160 acres of covered bushland to call your own.

    The feudal overlord part is coming back, as democratic capitalism devolves into plutocratic neofeudalism.

  83. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne: Why did he stay in Europe so long? He was 23 1/2 when he first played for the Blackhawks / came to North America.

    I’m not certain what you’re getting at here. Oilers drafted him, owned his rights, did not sign him, Chicago came calling. Are you asking if he refused to sign with Edmonton?

  84. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny: I’ve been following this tory and I think there is some impatience at your end for change and novelty, righteous needs considering your devotion to your present employer.

    But when I hear “promotions” I get leery.

    You never know for eg on what basis a person gets promoted in an unknown culture. At the very least, I want to know:

    1. The pay/benefits/holidays of the positions directly above you.
    2. How many times those positions have been filled in the past 5 years?
    3. How many of those times were they filled internally?

    I think that when HR holds that carrot out they should at least have to prove that it is a real carrot.

    But with regards to my impolite remark about impatience above… I think you’re better off sticking where you are and finding the right job, rather than a new job. Doesn’t sound like you enjoy going through this process often in life, so make this one count.

    Take the time to find a company that can pay you what your worth, offer room for dee-vel and a promotional ladder from there… a spot that involves interesting work and problems to solve… and is largely recession-proof with their product, if possible.

    This is your life and you and yours are worth it.I’d rather get paid more in a situation I know and spend five years looking for the right job, then wasting five years for $20k less, and then needing to go through the process again.

    All sound advice.

    But its really a VERY personal choice. Its like finances or your health…..its very dependant on your personal circumstances.

    If working in a toxic enviroment is adversly affecting your health or your relationships then a pay cut may not be the worst thing in the world.

    Health for Money is not a good trade. Be a better GM than that. 🙂

  85. Lowetide says:

    For those wondering about Gustafsson and others, I wrote about orphans here

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/07/04/song-of-the-orphans/

  86. unca miltie says:

    Pouzar, like our other friends, I do not know what the right answer is for you, but I will tell you a story that happened to me 10 years ago. I was talking about changing companies and applied for a management position with another firm. After many interviews and discussions, they came back and offered me a position but not the one that I wanted. I politely declined and more conversations were started. In due course, the offer changed and the position and the compensation I was after came about.
    I suspect your story is not over yet either.
    Munny,

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    Dr. Taboggan: To be fair, McDavid and Kassian are stuck with Joe Colborne.I can only imagine if that line had Krejci or Bergeron.

    And the Oilers 1line takes about as many offensive zone faceoffs as neutral and defensive zone faceoffs: 20.11 / 19.38 / 19.38. The Bergeron line starts far more in the O-zone: 34.41 / 28.06 / 17.47. And yet they’ve still allowed more goals per sixty than the McDavid line: 3.18 v 2.74.

  88. Thorin says:

    Andy Dufresne: All sound advice.
    But its really a VERY personal choice. Its like finances or your health…..its very dependant on your personal circumstances.

    If working in a toxic enviroment is adversly affecting your health or your relationships then a pay cut may not be the worst thing in the world.

    Health for Money is not a good trade. Be a better GM than that. 🙂

    Amen to that. I stuck it out in a toxic software dev job because the pay was decent and I could work from home, but it seriously affected my mental health in the last two years, which of course affected my marriage. I was forcibly laid off (last Canadian dev on the team) and ended up taking a lower-paying job a couple of months later, and I’ve found a renewed love for what I do. Which, of course, also affected my marriage but in a positive manner.

    Pouzar, I haven’t managed to catch the rest of the thread(s) that you’ve posted about your work situation, I totally understand the desire to do something new and exciting while also being stuck with big bills (I’m also in my 40s with kids and house). I wish you all the best in trying to find work that makes you happy.

  89. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    frjohnk,

    Always bet on the guys who can skate.

    Y’know, likea 31 yo Taylor Hall.

    You mean the guy who missed significant time last year with a knee injury and whose skating hasn’t been the same since? That Taylor Hall?

  90. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: I’m not certain what you’re getting at here. Oilers drafted him, owned his rights, did not sign him, Chicago came calling. Are you asking if he refused to sign with Edmonton?

    No. Im not familiar with the specifics and am not questioning your accounting of the situation. You have much better insight into this than I do.

    What Im wondering is, how unusual is it to not sign a guy who was drafted as an over-ager to start with and who then subsequently didnt come across to North America for several years.

    You only have so many roster spots. Doesnt seem unusual to me.

    The only thing that seems unusual is that he bloomed late.

    I guess maybe I am questioning whether he “in essence” may have refused to sign? Is it possible that he / his agent said, “not coming across to play in the AHL?” like JP agent was rumoured to have done? (Chia’s 40 game garauntee?)

    But putting speculation ( my speculation that is) aside, I’m just not sure that not signing an over-ager at age 23 and 1/2 whose never played a game in North America is all tht odd / unusual. Its his blooming late that makes the story unusual.

    Im not addamnent about it or anything. Just not quite getting the full gist of it.

    You think that if there had not been a change of GM’s that Gustafsson would be an Oiler today. Perhaps your right…..I just dont feel as strongly about it. Makes me feel like Im missing something…which I probably am. It ahppens more often than I care to admitt. 🙂

  91. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is all but zero chance he’d be in the AHL if he signed an NHL contract – neitehr the Oilers, nor would any acquiring team, expose him to waivers.

    I wish more people understood this: AHL was not an option for Jesse this year. And according to Vollman Liiga is virtually on par with AHL anyhow.

  92. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: You mean the guy who missed significant time last year with a knee injury and whose skating hasn’t been the same since? That Taylor Hall?

    OK…dont always bet on them……but bet on the generational talents who can skate. Like Bobby Orr.

    OR……better still….just dont bet……… 🙂

  93. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: I wish more people understood this: AHL was not an option for Jesse this year. And according to Vollman Liiga is virtually on par with AHL anyhow.

    And Bandi is virtually hockey too. 🙂

    I wouldnt be counting how many goals he scored….Id be counting how many times he hit an opposing player to seperate him from the puck.

    I hope he’s still an Oiler 7 days from now. Because playoffs and international play is the only way his value is going to increase for us. imo

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hawks add a 2nd goal with about 10 minutes left in the third to go up 2-0 on the Stars.

    Battling for the division is the talk but I’m not giving away a top spot in the Western conference.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, it sounds like Khaira is likely good to go for tomorrow night.

    What does Tippett do?

    Granny can’t come out, Archie and Sheahan are too valuable on the PK (and I’m loving Archie’s pis-cutting at evens, ya I said it), Haas is the center.

    I don’t imagine he puts him in Chiasson’s 2LW spot after last game.

    P. Russell?

  96. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hawks add a 2nd goal with about 10 minutes left in the third to go up 2-0 on the Stars.

    Battling for the division is the talk but I’m not giving away a top spot in the Western conference.

    Some teams have other teams number.

    We struggle agaisnt the Kings. Other teams hanlde them no problem.

    I think the Stars and the Hawks have a bit aof a rivalry.

  97. VanIsleOil says:

    Andy Dufresne: And Bandi is virtually hockey too. 🙂

    I wouldnt be counting how many goals he scored….Id be counting how many times he hit an opposing player to seperate him from the puck.

    I hope he’s still an Oiler 7 days from now. Because playoffs and international play is the only way his value is going to increase for us. imo

    If JP doesn’t make it back to the NHL, he can always go back to his roots…🙂
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7msE_D8xfc

  98. Pouzar says:

    Thorin: Is your current job under threat of ending?

    I am reading the tea leaves and it very well could be. Some call me paranoid but I would put over/under at 3 years.

  99. Harpers Hair says:

    3-0 Hawks

    Look like the Dallas run is over.

  100. Pouzar says:

    Thorin: is your current job causing your skills to stagnate?

    Technically yes however I have been given opportunities to lead projects which is nice but I don’t get paid like a PM or more than a Developer would. I just want the experience at doing different things. Currently on my own time I am teaching myself more and more .NET stuff. My goal is to re-write some of our current work apps from home. I can connect to our DEV servers from home through VPN so life is good there. Gotta keep learning the technical stuff in case shit hits the fan.

  101. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hawks add a 2nd goal with about 10 minutes left in the third to go up 2-0 on the Stars.

    Battling for the division is the talk but I’m not giving away a top spot in the Western conference.

    Some teams have other teams number.

    We struggle agaisnt the Kings. Other teams hanlde them no problem.

    I think the Stars and the Hawks have a bit aof a rivalry.

    Lowetide:
    For those wondering about Gustafsson and others, I wrote about orphans here

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/07/04/song-of-the-orphans/

    Nice write up. Thank You.

    And I do get your point. Im not obtuse you know 🙂 haha

    You could stop reading here. I acknowlege that what youre saying is correct. Im about to get philosophical.

    I think its one of those things where you are focused on the circumsatnces of the event as it occured in real time. For example, given the circumsatnces in July of 2015, the Oilers mgt should have given Gustafsson a contract.

    I guess I’m coming at it from a different perspective.

    I lose no sleep over the fact that Rajala, Fedun, Arcobello, or Gustafsson are not Oilers today. I dont see it as a breakdown of the process. Even as the process occurs in real time. I view it as a normal part of the process.

    I guess it might come down to management style. You paint in fine strokes. Perhaps very detail oriented. Which could be a good thing.

    In my management style, some losses are acceptable losses. Even necessary losses.

    Its like when Woodguy says that the Draisaitl contract was an overpay. And he makes his case based on the facts on the gorund at that time. I viewed the same facts and came to a different conclusion, in real time. My conclusion was, no way that $8.5m x 8 yrs was an overpay. Woodguy was not wrong. Just has/had a different mgt style.

    It may be a bad analogy but, in business (and in battle I might add) some Managers manage to the top line and some to the bottom line

    (The top line refers to a company’s revenues or gross sales. Therefore, when a company has “top-line growth,” the company is experiencing an increase in gross sales or revenues. … More specifically, the bottom line is a company’s income after all expenses have been deducted from revenues.) I told you to stop reading 🙂

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Yikes! That’s ridiculous money for a guy who averages 30 points per season, no matter how good he is defensively.

    Who you play with matter a lot in your results.

  103. Pouzar says:

    Thorin: If not, is it bad management making you look? If so, it might be worth the drop to get away from toxic management.

    My department is run by idiots. So yeah that is a big motivator as well.

  104. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, it sounds like Khaira is likely good to go for tomorrow night.

    What does Tippett do?

    Granny can’t come out, Archie and Sheahan are too valuable on the PK (and I’m loving Archie’s pis-cutting at evens, ya I said it), Haas is the center.

    I don’t imagine he puts him in Chiasson’s 2LW spot after last game.

    P. Russell?

    If I’m the Coach I would almost be inclined to save Khaira ( home town hero) for the back to backs against the Canucks. If the Oilers get physical the Nucks have no response.

  105. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah…and the Bruins top line is much better defensively.

    At this rate we’ll all soon be hearing how McDraisaitl fail to measure up to the KLM line.

  106. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    3-0 Hawks

    Look like the Dallas run is over.

    I need my percentage update fix. What’s the percentage Peters is kicking stones down the road by noon tomorrow?

  107. Pouzar says:

    Munny: I’ve been following this story and I think there is some impatience at your end for change and novelty, righteous needs for sure, considering your devotion to your present employer.

    But when I hear “promotions” I get leery.

    You never know, for eg, on what basis a person gets promoted in an unknown culture. At the very least, I would want to know:

    1. The pay/benefits/holidays of the positions directly above you.
    2. How many times those positions have been filled in the past 5 years?
    3. How many of those times were they filled internally?

    I think that when HR holds that carrot out they should at least have to prove that it is a real carrot.

    I’d probably comb the relevant websites and see if I could see how much of their hiring is true.

    But with regards to my impolite remark about impatience above… I think you’re better off sticking where you are and finding the *right* job, rather than a *new* job. Doesn’t sound like you enjoy going through this process often in life, so make this one count.

    Take the time to find a company that can pay you what your worth, offer room for dee-vel and a promotional ladder from there… a spot that involves interesting work and problems to solve… and is largely recession-proof with their product, if possible.

    This is your life and you and yours are worth it.I’d rather get paid more in a situation I know and spend five years looking for the right job, then wasting five years for $20k less, and then needing to go through the process again.

    Edit: or alternatively, start your own firm.

    Excellent post.

    That is quite the carrot to dangle. I’ve had 2 different convos with two separate HR people and one said “with solid performance you could get promoted to Position X” while the other said “with a solid performance you could thrive in your current position and APPLY for position X!” Jezzuz that’s big fricken difference.

    I have combed the website to get a better feel for the company and they have a stellar rep but boy this would be a massive leap of faith. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

    I appreciate the feedback!

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Western Conference Standings – November 26, 2019

    1. EDM – 35 points (26 games, 12 regulation wins)
    2. STL – 34 points (25 games, 9 regulation wins)
    3. DAL – 32 points (26 games, 12 regulation wins)
    4. ARI – 31 points (25 games, 9 regulation wins)
    5. WIN – 29 points (24 games, 8 regulation wins)
    6. COL – 28 points (23 games, 10 regulation wins)
    7. VAN – 28 points (25 games, 9 regulation wins)
    8. SJS – 27 points (25 games, 8 regulation wins)

    Western Conference Points Percentage – November 26, 2019

    1. STL – .680
    2. EDM – .673
    3. ARI – 620
    4. DAL – .615
    5. COL – ,608
    6. WIN – .604
    7. VAN – .560
    8. SJS – .540

    Western Conference Goal Differential – November 26, 2019

    1. ARI +13
    2. EDM +12
    3. COL +12
    4. DAL +10
    5. VAN +8
    6. STL +5
    7. NSH +3
    8. VEG – 0

  109. Ice Sage says:

    Harpers Hair: And Bergeron at 34 is on pace for his best season ever.

    Bergeron is injured.
    All the better for his lineman’s performance tonite. Price was priceless (as in worth nothing)

  110. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: All sound advice.

    But its really a VERY personal choice. Its like finances or your health…..its very dependant on your personal circumstances.

    If working in a toxic enviroment is adversly affecting your health or your relationships then a pay cut may not be the worst thing in the world.

    Health for Money is not a good trade. Be a better GM than that. 🙂

    It’s not affecting health or personal well being but I do worry and I do want to do work for a more progressive company with a real chance for growth. I went in this expecting to take a pay cut and would have with bells on but daayum….curious what my meeting tomorrow brings.

  111. Pouzar says:

    unca miltie: Pouzar, like our other friends, I do not know what the right answer is for you, but I will tell you a story that happened to me 10 years ago. I was talking about changing companies and applied for a management position with another firm. After many interviews and discussions, they came back and offered me a position but not the one that I wanted. I politely declined and more conversations were started. In due course, the offer changed and the position and the compensation I was after came about.
    I suspect your story is not over yet either.

    This is exactly what sounds like is happening now…well almost…I hope lol

    Thanks!

  112. Pouzar says:

    Thorin: Amen to that.I stuck it out in a toxic software dev job because the pay was decent and I could work from home, but it seriously affected my mental health in the last two years, which of course affected my marriage.I was forcibly laid off (last Canadian dev on the team) and ended up taking a lower-paying job a couple of months later, and I’ve found a renewed love for what I do.Which, of course, also affected my marriage but in a positive manner.

    Pouzar, I haven’t managed to catch the rest of the thread(s) that you’ve posted about your work situation, I totally understand the desire to do something new and exciting while also being stuck with big bills (I’m also in my 40s with kids and house).I wish you all the best in trying to find work that makes you happy.

    Cheers man! It will all work out.

  113. Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville says:

    Harpers Hair: It is a very long story triggered by an extensive (hours long) conversation I had as a journalist decades ago.

    When I have the time, I’ll recount it in depth but suffice to say it deals with social isolation that ensued from women moving to the suburbs and losing the support networks (extended families) they previously enjoyed while raising children.

    We often don’t recognize the societal changes that occur right in front of us that are triggered by technological advances.

    For example, the garage door opener made it possible and quite likely, you would never meet your neighbors.

    Fascinating.

  114. unca miltie says:

    Pouzar: This is exactly what sounds like is happening now…well almost…I hope lol

    Thanks!

    all the best

  115. Pouzar says:

    Speaking of Bergeron and still being awesome at 34…what do fook happened to Jonathan Toews at 31?

  116. Reja says:

    I liked Anson Carter as a Oiler ( he could score ) and I really like his take on things nice to hear a straight up opinion. Wish we had him doing colour for us instead of the reverse engineer Drew.

  117. oilersfan says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Andy,

    We all love Shawshank here. It’s the Warden who is obtuse.

    Be sure to have some shined shoes always ready to go!

  118. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar: My department is run by idiots. So yeah that is a big motivator as well.

    Social Science tells us that your overall job satisfaction (and resulting happiness) is not a result of the size of your paycheck as much as it is the quality of the person(s) you work for. Particularly your direct report.

  119. Munny says:

    Pouzar:
    Speaking of Bergeron and still being awesome at 34…what do fook happened to Jonathan Toews at 31?

    The ski fell off that waterbug and he’s let go of the rope.

  120. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Social Science tells us that your overall job satisfaction (and resulting happiness) is not a result of the size of your paycheck as much as it is the quality of the person(s) you work for. Particularly your direct report.

    I work with great guys but man the people above us…I know it’s a story written a thousand times before but I’ve had enough.

  121. Andy Dufresne says:

    oilersfan:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Andy,

    We all love Shawsbank here. It’s the Warden who is obtuse.

    Be sure to have some shined shoes always ready to go!

    Thank You fellow inmate.

    People like you make prison bareable.

    Beers on the roof tomorrow!

  122. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: You mean the guy who missed significant time last year with a knee injury and whose skating hasn’t been the same since? That Taylor Hall?

    Thanks for removing the 😉 from your quote of my post.

  123. Dee Dee says:

    Winning is a magical elixir that makes you forget the tragic past, and mistakes.

    It adds weight and speed to your attacks making you feel like you are playing downhill and the Net becomes so wide you can not miss.

    It makes the air smell sweeter and food taste better.

    It increases the standards in your Organization and raises the bar for the rookies.

    It affords you the luxury of playing simple.

    It turns winners into Hero’s to be forever worshiped.

    And it raises the level of your fancy stats.

    Losing is a curse and dooms you to only see the negative side. Every mistake is magnified, torn apart and second guessed.

    It’s an anchor, a ball and chain you drag around. You are pushing the boulder up a massive hill, and the net becomes smaller than the puck.

    It grips your chest and squeezes and you can’t escape from it. You get chirped at the Grocery store and the Bank, people egg your house and taunt your children in school, even your wife and parents will be ridiculed.

    It forces desperation and makes you cheat. Risk is magnified and you try to pick up the game on your own back and win it by yourself.

    You become the Goat.

    Young ones get sacrificed to appease the Hockey Gods. There is no time to do it right. Throw them overboard and let them sink or swim, and they inevitably sink.

    You trade 6’s and 7’s for a new crop to try to win NOW, which only guarantees failure and they end up broken.

    And every day brings the end ever closer and makes the anchor bigger and the net smaller.

    Any given year 16 teams will win and 15 will lose. 23 teams won’t get past the 1st round. “Winning” is very hard.

    And its very easy for last years Hero to turn into this years Goat.

    So you hold your breathe and wait, dare to believe that this year might be the one, hoping the world doesn’t implode.

    The joys of being a fan.

  124. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar: I work with great guys but man the people above us…I know it’s a story written a thousand times before but I’ve had enough.

    Theres two kinds of workplace stress.

    Manageable stress.

    and Unmangable Stress…..this one kills you…literally……kills you…..

  125. oilersfan says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    We Oilers fans are living it now

    Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things

    But also

    Hope is a dangerous thing, it can drive a man insane

    Let’s hope for more of the former and less of the latter in this shawshank season

  126. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne: Some teams have other teams number.

    We struggle agaisnt the Kings. Other teams hanlde them no problem.

    I think the Stars and the Hawks have a bit aof a rivalry.

    Nice write up. Thank You.

    And I do get your point. Im not obtuse you know 🙂 haha

    You could stop reading here. I acknowlege that what youre saying is correct. Im about to get philosophical.

    I think its one of those things where you are focused on the circumsatnces of the event as it occured in real time. For example, given the circumsatnces in July of 2015, the Oilers mgt should have given Gustafsson a contract.

    I guess I’m coming at it from a different perspective.

    I lose no sleep over the fact that Rajala, Fedun, Arcobello, or Gustafsson are not Oilers today. I dont see it as a breakdown of the process. Even as the process occurs in real time. I view it as a normal part of the process.

    I guess it might come down to management style. You paint in fine strokes. Perhaps very detail oriented. Which could be a good thing.

    In my management style, some losses are acceptable losses. Even necessary losses.

    Its like when Woodguy says that the Draisaitl contract was an overpay. And he makes his case based on the facts on the gorund at that time. I viewed the same facts and came to a different conclusion, in real time. My conclusion was, no way that $8.5m x 8 yrs was an overpay. Woodguy was not wrong. Just has/had a different mgt style.

    It may be a bad analogy but, in business (and in battle I might add) some Managers manage to the top line and some to the bottom line

    (The top line refers to a company’s revenues or gross sales. Therefore, when a company has “top-line growth,” the company is experiencing an increase in gross sales or revenues. … More specifically, the bottom line is a company’s income after all expenses have been deducted from revenues.)I told you to stop reading 🙂

    You’re running a business, MacTavish was running a team. He has only 50 players who can be signed at any given time, and he signed Luke Gazdic and Keith Aulie while passing on signing Gustafsson. I expect MacT felt the Oilers needed toughness and the game kicked him to the curb the following season as the team owner flushed him the moment the organization won the McDavid sweepstakes.

    Gustafsson to McDavid was never a thing, and maybe signing him wouldn’t have made a difference. However, we can take the “maybe” out of that sentence if we insert Aulie instead.

  127. Munny says:

    Dee Dee,

    Dear Gord this is by far your longest and bestest post ever.

  128. oilersfan says:

    Wood guy

    I saw a question asking what would you pay Pageau?

    I apologize in advance if you posted it but I can’t find the answer

    Would love to know your thoughts on term and dollars

    Thanks

  129. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: You’re running a business, MacTavish was running a team. He has only 50 players who can be signed at any given time, and he signed Luke Gazdic and Keith Aulie while passing on signing Gustafsson. I expect MacT felt the Oilers needed toughness and the game kicked him to the curb the following season as the team owner flushed him the moment the organization won the McDavid sweepstakes.

    Gustafsson to McDavid was never a thing, and maybe signing him wouldn’t have made a difference. However, we can take the “maybe” out of that sentence if we insert Aulie instead.

    I take your point. And you are correct. …….and yet………kidding…….the rest would be splitting hairs. Thank you for indulging me. ( i got a bit esoteric there)

    Management of the 50 man list is so layered it really is fascinating and worthy of more study, elucidation, commentary…imo

  130. Andy Dufresne says:

    Seems everyones gone to bed.

    So Ill split a hair or two, while I talk to myself.

    MacTavish was right. The team did need toughness. (Its one of the reasons he drafted Darnell Nurse) MacTavish knew it. The Hockey World new it ( edmonton was a preferred destination for most other teams…an easy barn to play in). Hell even the guy who was hired the moment we won the McDavid Sweepstakes (and kicked MacTavish to the curb) knew it. In other words, people inside and outside the organization knew it.

    One could argue that if Mactavish’s gamble ( in business we call it a calculated risk) with Aulie and Gadzic had paid off (team toughness as opposed to an enforcer), Taylor Hall might still be an Oiler. There would have been no need to hire Milan Lucic.

    We lost out on the opportunity to hear “Gustafsson to Mcdavid”…..but perhaps if MacTavish’s bets had paid off we’d still be hearing “Hall to McDavid…..back to Hall”

    Hockey is a strange business.

  131. Pescador says:

    Munny:
    The Devils Lost the Larsson-Hall Trade:

    https://thehockeywriters.com/devils-lost-larsson-hall-trade/

    Oh man, if only “thehockeywriters” had any journalist integrity.
    I would totally click on that link

  132. hunter1909 says:

    Andy Dufresne: if MacTavish’s bets had paid off

    Other than for the fact that MacT had the gambling instincts of an imbecile…

    Still, the fucker got McDavid. That by itself is good enough for MacT to get his own statue somewhere in the new arena.

  133. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pescador: Oh man, if only “thehockeywriters” had any journalist integrity.
    I would totally click on that link

    Its basically saying….as a reult of the trade….who is better off 3 years later. (assuming Hall leaves NJ in free agency)

  134. Ari says:

    oilersfan:
    Wood guy

    I saw a question asking what would you pay Pageau?

    I apologize in advance if you posted it but I can’t find the answer

    Would love to know your thoughts on term and dollars

    Thanks

    Scroll up to 4:32pm time stamp.

    That said, he may make more. He’s playing the most of any forward on his team lately. (Probably because there aren’t better options.)

  135. Munny says:

    Pescador: Oh man, if only “thehockeywriters” had any journalist integrity.
    I would totally click on that link

    C’mon… you know you want to.

  136. GMB3 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Seems everyones gone to bed.

    So Ill split a hair or two, while I talk to myself.

    MacTavish was right. The team did need toughness. (Its one of the reasons he drafted Darnell Nurse) MacTavish knew it. The Hockey World new it ( edmonton was a preferred destination for most other teams…an easy barn to play in). Hell even the guy who was hired the moment we won the McDavid Sweepstakes (and kicked MacTavish to the curb) knew it.In other words, people inside and outside the organization knew it.

    One could argue that if Mactavish’s gamble ( in business we call it a calculated risk) with Aulie and Gadzic had paid off (team toughness as opposed to an enforcer), Taylor Hall might still be an Oiler. There would have been no need to hire Milan Lucic.

    We lost out on the opportunity to hear “Gustafsson to Mcdavid”…..but perhaps if MacTavish’s bets had paid off we’d still be hearing “Hall to McDavid…..back to Hall”

    Hockey is a strange business.

    That ignores the fact that Maroon scored 14 points in 16 games after the trade before we ever traded Hall. We found that “Lucic type player” for basically nothing.

    Fucking stupid trade by the most laughable GM in history. At least Fenton wasn’t gifted the best hand a GM could possibly have to start his tenure in a new city.

  137. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: You mean the guy who missed significant time last year with a knee injury and whose skating hasn’t been the same since? That Taylor Hall?

    Have you watched any Devils games this season?

  138. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Who you play with matter a lot in your results.

    Sure, of course it does. But I don’t see any justification for a $5M x 5 payday for Pageau. He’s having an extremely hot start to the year, that’s what I’m seeing. Do you really want to give a 27 year old a 5 year term because of a hot 25 games?

  139. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: Have you watched any Devils games this season?

    Yes. And I’ve had a boo at the stats: Hall is no longer pushing the river. His current 0.91 P/GP (also his career average) is hiding a lot of poor play on his part. A quick google search turns up some article to corroborate:

    https://thehockeywriters.com/devils-not-seeing-taylor-hall-they-need/

    https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2019/10/28/20934660/taylor-hall-surprisingly-disappointing-start-contract-year-bad-start-abysmal-on-ice-rates-bro

    https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2019/11/20/20972575/the-devils-season-isnt-over-they-should-still-trade-hall-tho

    Caveat: I haven’t studies these articles, I’m only going by the titles and a quick skim.

  140. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Thanks for removing the from your quote of my post.

    I just hit “Quote”. I’m not responsible for whether the emoji comes through or not. ^^ See?

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Sure, of course it does. But I don’t see any justification for a $5M x 5 payday for Pageau. He’s having an extremely hot start to the year, that’s what I’m seeing. Do you really want to give a 27 year old a 5 year term because of a hot 25 games?

    I want to give him 5 years because it’s highly probable he continues to do very well vs opposition elite via DFF% for the next 5 years and that’s valuable.

    Especially if he gets better help in EDM than in OTT (especially in regards to Dmen)

    You’re right about the cost.

    He doesn’t score and the NHL pays for points so I’m probably too high at $5MM

    Make no mistake about my position though, his hot streak has nothing to do with how I value him.

    I value him for his ability to do very well vis a vis DFF% vs elites with meh line mates while getting the toughest deployment on OTT.

    Same reason I loved Couturier before it was cool.

    #defesiveplayhipster

  142. Leon McMesstzky says:

    Andy Dufresne: If by top line you mean Patrice Bergeron….then yes…..yes he is.

    Our top line needs a Bergeron

  143. ArmchairGM says:

    Regarding Boston’s 1st line, it’s interesting to look at shooting percentages this year compared to career averages prior to this year:

    Pastrnak: 23.5 vs 14.0 (+9.5)
    Marchand: 27.0 vs 15.8 (+11.2)

    McDavid: 20.0 vs 14.7 (+5.3)
    Draisaitl: 19.3 vs 16.0 (+3.3)

    Maybe it’s more accurate to compare this year with the past 2 years (combined):

    Pastrnak: 23.5 vs 15.2 (+8.3)
    Marchand: 27.0 vs 16.9 (+10.1)

    McDavid: 20.0 vs 16.0 (+4.0)
    Draisaitl: 19.3 vs 17.6 (+1.7)

    It appears one of these duos is running hotter than hell, while the other is much closer to normal. Draisaitl’s shooting percentage is actually down from last year’s 21.6%. He’s been taking more shots though (3.19/gp vs 2.81 last year) so he’s still on pace for 50.

    Interestingly, at this point last year Pastrnak led the NHL with 19 goals in 24 games with a 20.0 Sh%. He finished 14th with 38 goals and a 16.2 Sh%, although it’s worth noting he missed 16 games due to injury. His G/GP last years was 4th best in the league.

  144. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I want to give him 5 years because it’s highly probable he continues to do very well vs opposition elite via DFF% for the next 5 years and that’s valuable.

    Especially if he gets better help in EDM than in OTT (especially in regards to Dmen)

    You’re right about the cost.

    He doesn’t score and the NHL pays for points so I’m probably too high at $5MM

    Make no mistake about my position though, his hot streak has nothing to do with how I value him.

    I value him for his ability to do very well vis a vis DFF% vs elites with meh line mates while getting the toughest deployment on OTT.

    Same reason I loved Couturier before it was cool.

    #defesiveplayhipster

    I like Pageau too and think he’s a hard target for 3C next year – and maybe at the deadline if a reasonable deal is available and an extension agreed to beforehand. I just don’t see any justification for $5M – I’d rather see a value deal from the get go, not pay him ahead of time for the defenseman bump or whatever you want to call it.

    As for Couterier, while I think he’s an excellent defensive center all his metrics are below 50% when you remove Giroux, as are Giroux’s without Couterier (except his GF%). Seems to be a case where the sum is greater than the parts.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=PHI&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=0&p2=8476461&p3=8473512&p4=0&p5=0

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: I like Pageau too and think he’s a hard target for 3C next year – and maybe at the deadline if a reasonable deal is available and an extension agreed to beforehand. I just don’t see any justification for $5M – I’d rather see a value deal from the get go, not pay him ahead of time for the defenseman bump or whatever you want to call it.

    As for Couterier, while I think he’s an excellent defensive center all his metrics are below 50% when you remove Giroux, as are Giroux’s without Couterier (except his GF%). Seems to be a case where the sum is greater than the parts.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=PHI&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=0&p2=8476461&p3=8473512&p4=0&p5=0

    I was referring to seeing Couturier take on the toughest comp as far back as 13/14 and 14/15 as a 21/22 year old.

    His most common linemates during those two seasons were:

    Read (1768min)
    Downie (435min)
    Simmonds (406min)
    Rafl (246min)

    His results with the heavy workload and meh team mates was outstanding, much like Pageau today (albeit at 27 and not 21)

    He only got 39 and 37 points those two years.

    Now that Couturier has line mates that can score and are good he’s killing those minutes because……who you play with matters a ton in regards to results.

    I see Pageau near the same.

    If he gets better linemates he won’t only beat (or come close to beating) those minutes, he’ll thrive.

  146. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Seems everyones gone to bed.

    So Ill split a hair or two, while I talk to myself.

    MacTavish was right. The team did need toughness. (Its one of the reasons he drafted Darnell Nurse) MacTavish knew it. The Hockey World new it ( edmonton was a preferred destination for most other teams…an easy barn to play in). Hell even the guy who was hired the moment we won the McDavid Sweepstakes (and kicked MacTavish to the curb) knew it.In other words, people inside and outside the organization knew it.

    One could argue that if Mactavish’s gamble ( in business we call it a calculated risk) with Aulie and Gadzic had paid off (team toughness as opposed to an enforcer), Taylor Hall might still be an Oiler. There would have been no need to hire Milan Lucic.

    We lost out on the opportunity to hear “Gustafsson to Mcdavid”…..but perhaps if MacTavish’s bets had paid off we’d still be hearing “Hall to McDavid…..back to Hall”

    Hockey is a strange business.

    A general manager who believes Gazdic or Aulie will move the needle at all is a man who is lost in the past. Gustafsson on the other hand was a young player with skills suited to the modern game. Edmonton drafted him, that’s the life blood of a franchise. Even if they end up trading him because Klefbom, Nurse and others occupy the roster spot he’s shooting for, Gustafsson’s trade value (based on age and trajectory) was miles more than Gazdic or Aulie.

    It was a poor decision.

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Couturier started playing with Giroux in 17/18.

    In 16/17 his TOI with Giroux was under 6min and was similar the previous years as they were the 1/2 C’s on PHI.

    Couturier’s TOI vs elites as far back as 14/15 (as far as our database goes)

    Season CTOI%
    20142015 40.7
    20152016 49.4
    20162017 38.1
    20172018 46.0
    20182019 46.9
    20192020 43.1

    He’s been pushing the rock uphill for a long time.

    Now his DFF% vs Elites:

    Season DFF%
    20142015 43.8
    20152016 49.8
    20162017 53.0
    20172018 48.4
    20182019 52.4
    20192020 66.9

    Now his DFF% RelComp (DFF% vs elites compared to rest of his team)
    Season DFF%RC
    20142015 -3.8
    20152016 6.2
    20162017 8.9
    20172018 5.4
    20182019 8.4
    20192020 17.9

    Lastly his GF% vs Elites:

    Season GF%
    20142015 45.5
    20152016 66.7
    20162017 60.0
    20172018 66.7
    20182019 42.5
    20192020 85.7

    He’s been the goods since long before he got Giroux to help his results.

    Finding these guys cheap is a matter of identifying them before they get a Giroux to help the more obvious results.

  148. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Regarding Boston’s 1st line, it’s interesting to look at shooting percentages this year compared to career averages prior to this year:

    Pastrnak: 23.5 vs 14.0 (+9.5)
    Marchand: 27.0 vs 15.8 (+11.2)

    McDavid: 20.0 vs 14.7 (+5.3)
    Draisaitl: 19.3 vs 16.0 (+3.3)

    Maybe it’s more accurate to compare this year with the past 2 years (combined):

    Pastrnak: 23.5 vs 15.2 (+8.3)
    Marchand: 27.0 vs 16.9 (+10.1)

    McDavid: 20.0 vs 16.0 (+4.0)
    Draisaitl: 19.3 vs 17.6 (+1.7)

    It appears one of these duos is running hotter than hell, while the other is much closer to normal. Draisaitl’s shooting percentage is actually down from last year’s 21.6%. He’s been taking more shots though (3.19/gp vs 2.81 last year) so he’s still on pace for 50.

    Interestingly, at this point last year Pastrnak led the NHL with 19 goals in 24 games with a 20.0 Sh%. He finished 14th with 38 goals and a 16.2 Sh%, although it’s worth noting he missed 16 games due to injury. His G/GP last years was 4th best in the league.

    Now do three years.

  149. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: A general manager who believes Gazdic or Aulie will move the needle at all is a man who is lost in the past. Gustafsson on the other hand was a young player with skills suited to the modern game. Edmonton drafted him, that’s the life blood of a franchise. Even if they end up trading him because Klefbom, Nurse and others occupy the roster spot he’s shooting for, Gustafsson’s trade value (based on age and trajectory) was miles more than Gazdic or Aulie.

    It was a poor decision.

    I can’t fInd the original link, but I recall following the Cult of Hockey boys during development camp. They were pretty surprised that he didn’t get a contract.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/unsigned-edmonton-oilers-draft-pick-erik-gustafsson-has-agreed-to-an-entry-level-deal-with-the-chicago-blackhawks

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Now do three years.

    How about 4 years of GF% results?

    16/17-today

    Bergeron-Marchand on ice 59.1% GF

    McDavid-Draisaitl on ice 58.3%

    I wonder what 97-29’s number would look like if the 3rd player was Pasternak and not Kassian, Maroon, etc along with a number of players no longer in the NHL?

  151. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: A general manager who believes Gazdic or Aulie will move the needle at all is a man who is lost in the past. Gustafsson on the other hand was a young player with skills suited to the modern game. Edmonton drafted him, that’s the life blood of a franchise. Even if they end up trading him because Klefbom, Nurse and others occupy the roster spot he’s shooting for, Gustafsson’s trade value (based on age and trajectory) was miles more than Gazdic or Aulie.

    It was a poor decision.

    MacTavish strikes me as a person who makes decisions early on players and doesn’t change his mind with evidence

    I know he was reported to be very “open to the idea of using data” but its my understanding that in practice he was mostly open when it confirmed his opinion and eschewed it when it didn’t.

  152. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pouzar,

    Pouzar,

    – Pouzar: you’ve had some good advice/opinions from a lot of smart people here who have share their insight. It’s such a neat place for stuff like this

    – The only thing I would add, given my finance background, is to do an analysis on the the entities. (I’m assuming you are in IT for a company and not a government organization)

    – I’d look as best you can at the health and prospects of the company you are negotiating with, vs where you are now. Now in an ideal world, your going to the next super-growth company that has a lot of sales, traction and is profitable.

    – Making a move for a “promotion” in a vacuum, when the new company might not have the same stability and/or prospects as your current comapny might not be the right move

    – Conversely if your current company has greater growth prospects, you might not want to make the move, simply to be a bigger fish in a shittier murkier pond

    – The firm one works at and their prospects is much more important than the title.

    FUN FACT: One of my classmates in MBA, we were all taking jobs in i-banking. He turned down an associate role at one of the bulge-bracket firms, and instead joined the M&A group at a large and growing US tech firm in SanFran. We thought he was crazy, but he saw a better opportunity. He made the right call that that firm would grow at a much larger pace than the i-banks, and he would have exposure to better opportunities. After the company sold, he took some of his shares and invested in a bunch of tech companies that are now public, and has F$ck You yacht money

    – So while I’m sure it’s not as black and white for you as that example, at this age and stage: but go for the place that has the biggest growth (and not some start-up that may or may not make it because you aren’t in a position to risk having the comp;any go under in a few years)

  153. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: How about 4 years of GF% results?

    16/17-today

    Bergeron-Marchand on ice 59.1% GF

    McDavid-Draisaitl on ice 58.3%

    I wonder what 97-29’s number would look like if the 3rd player was Pasternak and not Kassian, Maroon, etc along with a number of players no longer in the NHL?

    The curse of the cap.

    Marchand + Pasternak $12.7 M. McDavid $12.5 M

    Bergeron $6.8 M. Draisaitl $8.5 M

    Three for the price of two with a fourth liner bonus.

  154. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: Now do three years.

    I did career and 2 years for recency bias, and made reference to last year in the comments. I don’t think a 3 year sample is going to show a more accurate picture than showing both career and 2 years.

  155. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: MacTavish

    Woodguy v2.0: was reported to be very “open to the idea of using data” but its my understanding that in practice he was mostly open when it confirmed his opinion and eschewed it when it didn’t.

    Wonderful. And we fans have enjoyed nearly every moment of his thinking.

  156. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: The curse of the cap.

    Marchand + Pasternak $12.7 M.McDavid $12.5 M

    Bergeron $6.8 M. Draisaitl $8.5 M

    Three for the price of two with a fourth liner bonus.

    You figure $13M for Bergeron and Marchand will still look good in a couple of seasons when Marchand is 33 and Bergeron is 36?

  157. Professor Q says:

    Harpers Hair: The curse of the cap.

    Marchand + Pasternak $12.7 M.McDavid $12.5 M

    Bergeron $6.8 M. Draisaitl $8.5 M

    Three for the price of two with a fourth liner bonus.

    Until Lavoie shows up.

  158. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers have the best 1-2 punch in hockey yet some of you want to split hairs re other teams alleged star players?

  159. Pouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Pouzar,

    Pouzar,

    – Pouzar: you’ve had some good advice/opinions from a lot of smart people here who have share their insight.It’s such a neat place for stuff like this

    – The only thing I would add, given my finance background, is to do an analysis on the the entities.(I’m assuming you are in IT for a company and not a government organization)

    – I’d look as best you can at the health and prospects of the company you are negotiating with, vs where you are now.Now in an ideal world, your going to the next super-growth company that has a lot of sales, traction and is profitable.

    – Making a move for a “promotion” in a vacuum, when the new company might not have the same stability and/or prospects as your current comapny might not be the right move

    – Conversely if your current company has greater growth prospects, you might not want to make the move, simply to be a bigger fish in a shittier murkier pond

    – The firm one works at and their prospects is much more important than the title.

    FUN FACT:One of my classmates in MBA, we were all taking jobs in i-banking.He turned down an associate role at one of the bulge-bracket firms, and instead joined the M&A group at a large and growing US tech firm in SanFran.We thought he was crazy, but he saw a better opportunity.He made the right call that that firm would grow at a much larger pace than the i-banks, and he would have exposure to better opportunities.After the company sold, he took some of his shares and invested in a bunch of tech companies that are now public, and has F$ck You yacht money

    – So while I’m sure it’s not as black and white for youas that example, at this age and stage:but go for the place that has the biggest growth (and not some start-up that may or may not make it because you aren’t in a position to risk having the comp;any go under in a few years)

    Cheers Kinger!

  160. Leon McMesstzky says:

    Woodguy v2.0: How about 4 years of GF% results?

    16/17-today

    Bergeron-Marchand on ice 59.1% GF

    McDavid-Draisaitl on ice 58.3%

    I wonder what 97-29’s number would look like if the 3rd player was Pasternak and not Kassian, Maroon, etc along with a number of players no longer in the NHL?

    I think youd have 3 guys with 50+ goals and 140+ points. Every year

  161. Munny says:

    Munny:
    frjohnk,

    Always bet on the guys who can skate.

    Y’know, likea 31 yo Taylor Hall.

    😉

    test

  162. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: I just hit “Quote”. I’m not responsible for whether the emoji comes through or not. ^^ See?

    seems to include the emoji just fine if you look at the post above

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