2019-20 Game 27: Oilers at Avalanche

My reasonable projection for the Oilers during the first two months of the season was 14-12-2, 30 points in 28 games. With two games remaining in November, the team is 16-7-3, 35 points in 26 games. Connor McDavid’s Oilers moved to a better neighbourhood this season. Now the hard part: To keep it going.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.

  • New Lowetide: The 2010s: Revisiting the Connor McDavid draft lottery — the day the earth stood still in Edmonton
  • New Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Unveiling the Oilers all-decade team
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 2010s: What went wrong with Nail Yakupov? How the No. 1 pick became the decade’s biggest NHL draft bust
  • New Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Ranking a decade’s worth of Oilers coaches
  • Lowetide: Tyler Benson posting a strong November in hopes of an Oilers recall
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A superstar shines, a goaltender stands tall and a ‘road hockey’ power play helps the Oilers return to form
  • Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s deployment is a sign the Oilers need a No. 3 centre
  • Jonathan Willis: A Jesse Puljujarvi trade is an opportunity of which only one NHL team gets to take advantage
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanLeon Draisaitl takes the blame as the Oilers’ struggles against lowly foes continues
  • Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 27 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 10-15-2, 22 points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in 2016: 14-11-2, 30 points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in 2017: 11-14-2, 24 points; goal differential -12
  • Oilers in 2018: 13-12-2, 28 points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in 2019: 16-7-3, 35 points; goal differential +13

This year’s model has just one comparable, and it took the 2016-17 campaign 27 games to reach 30 points. If Edmonton wins tonight, a tall order, the club will begin the approach to 40 points. That plateau could be reached next week, first week of December. A year ago New Year’s Eve, Edmonton had 39 standings points, Calgary 52.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, 10 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-6-2, 12 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in November 2017: 5-7-1, 11 points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in November 2018: 5-7-1, 11 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in November 2019: 7-3-2, 16 points, goal differential +8

There’s an outside chance Edmonton could win nine games and bring 20 points in November, and I do think that would be call for celebration. There was an old wrestling event called ‘November to Remember’ maybe the Oilers could bring back former players for a big wrestling event. I’d pay to see Kirill Tulupov versus Ben Eager and Mathieu Roy versus himself.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games

Edmonton could lose the last two games and I’d still call this a successful month, but now they’re here, why not drive home the nail so it sticks. Both opponents are solid teams, although Colorado’s five-on-five possession number (49 percent) and their goal differential in the discipline (59 percent) are probably due for a market correction.

OILERS 2019-20

We are waiting on some injury news. Sounds like Jujhar Khaira will draw in (I expect on the left side with Sheahan’s trio), Nuge is out for sure (with an update on status likely) and the Matt Benning return date is out among the stars.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2019-20

The Condors play tonight at home against the very strong Tucson Roadrunners. I think Tyler Benson has some daylight now over Kailer Yamamoto and Cooper Marody, who seems to be leaking oil and taking on water at the same time. Among blue, William Lagesson, Joel Persson, Evan Bouchard and Logan Day have been prominent of late. Goalie Dylan Wells stopped many shots in a recent start and his save percentage is pretty. Maybe he gets another start.

NEWS ON NUGE SOON

I didn’t have a bad feeling about Nuge’s injury until people started saying they had a bad feeling about Nuge’s injury and now I’m worried. If Nuge is injured, suspect Holland will need to go out and get a reasonable replacement of which there are none available. I don’t see any of the Condors centers replacing Nuge. McLeod is too young for the role, I suspect the organization doesn’t like Marody’s speed at center. That means Sam Gagner unless a trade goes down.

JESSE

I don’t think we’ll see a trade, but if the Nuge news is bad maybe Holland uses Mr. Puljujarvi in a package to get Jean-Gabriel Pageau or other. It would be a rushed trade and both sides are running out of days.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Wednesday on TSN1260, we begin at 10 this morning. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will riff on a winning streak, the game tonight, Nuge’s injury and what may come. Matthew Trueblood from Baseball Prospectus will join us to discuss the Hall of Fame resume of Larry Walker. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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653 Responses to "2019-20 Game 27: Oilers at Avalanche"

« Older Comments
  1. Professor Q says:

    Well I don’t usually condone it.

    But if the ref is letting Colorado get away with murder so to speak, put on the foil.

    Put it on your hands. Put it on your pads. Put it on your stick.

    Give it to them.

  2. Paulie says:

    Any update on Nuge or Benning?

  3. tcho says:

    Paulie,

    Benning is on IR. I don’t think that’s a good sign.

  4. drglen says:

    I’d like to see more pushback here from kassian, Khaira?, Sheehan? Cmon guys .. sam Gagner and Nurse are playing for keeps here.. we need a response.

  5. drglen says:

    Professor Q:
    Well I don’t usually condone it.

    But if the ref is letting Colorado get away with murder so to speak, put on the foil.

    Put it on your hands. Put it on your pads. Put it on your stick.

    Give it to them.

    here here.. agreed.

  6. hags9k says:

    We actually had an amazing PK on the faux major but the extended attack time put the nords on their toes and to their credit they stayed there.

    Brawl em.

  7. drglen says:

    that could have been a hold

  8. hags9k says:

    What is tripping for $200 Alex.

  9. Professor Q says:

    Holy heck. Nichushkin just leg clamped Haas to take him down.

    It’s MMA out there.

  10. Ryan says:

    godot10:
    Dreamy’s brain doesn’t function very well in the thin air apparently.

    Colorado’s compete level is high.Wanted payback for the loss in Edmonton.

    Maybe he needs to trade his Volvo in for a Tesla.

  11. Ryan says:

    The refs set the tone for this game.

  12. hags9k says:

    Ryan:
    The refs set the tone for this game.

    One of the worst this year and that’s saying something.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    tcho:
    Paulie,

    Benning is on IR. I don’t think that’s a good sign.

    He needed to go on IR in order to open up a roster spot to call Jones up.

    There was no update on either player today – likely get one tomorrow or Friday if tomorrow is on off/travel day.

  14. BONE207 says:

    The fun has really left this game. Time to try a different liquor

  15. drglen says:

    BONE207: Qu

    Yes, this has been a dog of a third period.

  16. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Kadri is such a weasel.

  17. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Have the Oilers got a shot this period?

  18. Professor Q says:

    Apparently, the refs are the same ones who disallowed McDavid’s goal and were then embarrassed by Connor when he scored (Game Misconduct – Abuse of Official). Disallowed a Kassian goal also, right?

    Maybe this makes sense, unfortunately.

  19. tcho says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks OP. I misunderstood what that meant.

  20. hags9k says:

    What a puke. Fucking soccer league.

  21. Wilde says:

    Condors vs Roadrunners; Period One; 5-on-5

    21 CF – 11 CA
    9 FF – 5 FA
    1 GF – 5 GA

    Period Two

    27 CF – 18 CA
    17 FF – 10 FA
    2 GF – 0 GA

    Period Three

    26 CF – 11 CA
    23 FF – 7 FA
    0 GF – 3 GA

    Condors vs Roadrunners; Game Totals; 5-on-5

    74 CF – 40 CA / / +34 (64.9%
    49 FF – 22 FA / / +27 (69.0%)
    3 GF – 8 GA / / -5 (27.3%)

  22. drglen says:

    that should not have been a powerplay.. Kassians original hit was clean

  23. Oil2Oilers says:

    Impressed by Koskinen’s night

  24. drglen says:

    we were undermanned tonight..

    Nuge was missed.

    The D were gassed and making bad decisions..

    .. keep looking for that top six forward mr Holland.

  25. Paulie says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the update.

  26. drglen says:

    3 stars for the avalanch?

    homers..

    how can you not give Koskinen a 3rd star at least. He was stellar.

  27. BONE207 says:

    Wilde:
    Condors vs Roadrunners; Period One; 5-on-5

    21 CF – 11 CA
    9 FF – 5 FA
    1 GF – 5 GA

    Period Two

    27 CF – 18 CA
    17 FF – 10 FA
    2 GF – 2 GA

    Period Three

    26 CF – 11 CA
    23 FF – 7 FA
    0 GF – 3 GA

    Condors vs Roadrunners; Game Totals; 5-on-5

    74 CF – 40 CA / / +34 (64.9%
    49 FF – 22 FA / / +27 (69.0%)
    3 GF – 8 GA / / -5 (27.3%)

    Was this a 10-3 game?

  28. StixMalone says:

    First line was terrible. Hope they kick Vancouvers asses both games they should be motivated…..

  29. drglen says:

    Nathan McKinnon very well spoken young man.

    I guess, that guy who drove 36 hours in a snowstorm Down from Winnepeg, deserves to see the Avs win.

  30. jtblack says:

    Klefbom should pinch more

  31. theDjdj says:

    hags9k: One of the worst this year and that’s saying something.

    It’s the refs Connor chirped last year and got a game misconduct for. They clearly had an axe to grind. Fkn children. If your Holland youre using your great weight in the league and calling Daly tomorrow. Despicable.

  32. Wilde says:

    BONE207: Was this a 10-3 game?

    no that’s a typo

  33. Pescador says:

    jtblack:
    Klefbom should pinch more

    Just as long as he misses the puck & hangs his D partner/goaltender out to dry in the process.
    Then I’m okay with it

  34. gogliano says:

    Professor Q:
    Apparently, the refs are the same ones who disallowed McDavid’s goal and were then embarrassed by Connor when he scored (Game Misconduct – Abuse of Official). Disallowed a Kassian goal also, right?

    Maybe this makes sense, unfortunately.

    Steve Kozari.

  35. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    gogliano: Steve Kozari.

    Just think, in 15-20 years we’ll all be listening to him on a weekly radio spot thinking about how measured and even keeled he seems.

  36. BONE207 says:

    jtblack:
    Klefbom should pinch more

    I prefer he clench more if his future thoughts prior those kinds of plays come up again. Especially when you’re down 2 defenders.

  37. Reja says:

    theDjdj: It’s the refs Connor chirped last year and got a game misconduct for. They clearly had an axe to grind. Fkn children. If your Holland youre using your great weight in the league and calling Daly tomorrow. Despicable.

    I think the league needs to look into abuse of power by these Refs tonight.

  38. Paulie says:

    Klefbom, leading the league in TOI, had a bad game playing 26 minutes in the thin air with Larsson gone and Russell out for a spell at the end of the second and start of the third. Let’s trade him for a 7th round pick.

  39. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m so fuckin sick of getting the short end of the straw when it comes to the reffing. We deserved our penalties tonight. How about calling some on the opposition once in awhile. Most frustrated I’ve been all year watching a game. The boys played like crap and I’m just sick of the reffing.

  40. Pescador says:

    BONE207:
    The fun has really left this game. Time to try a different liquor

    Oh sure blame the liquor

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    Nurse trying to twist off Compher’s melon was the highlight of the night for this Oiler fan.

  42. jtblack says:

    Tippett. pissed at the post game avail

  43. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’m so fuckin sick of getting the short end of the straw when it comes to the reffing. We deserved our penalties tonight. How about calling some on the opposition once in awhile.Most frustrated I’ve been all year watching a game. The boys played like crap and I’m just sick of the reffing.

    I thought the Oil we’re having a decent game, Koskinen was brilliant, gave them a chance.
    Then it was penalty city & the car was headed to the ditch.
    Didn’t help that Klefbom cut the break lines. Twice
    Hard to criticize his poor decisions when he was just unreal on the PK.
    Extremely frustrating game to watch.
    Fuck the refs, every decision was wrong & the Oilers deserved better

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    Man, I think Treliving has done more media avails this week than Chiarelli did his entire career as Oiler GM.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    jtblack:
    Tippett.pissedat the post game avail

    Liked his comments though, saying the team has to be smarter to hang in and pickup points when your goalie is playing that well.

    MacLellan was all durrrrrrrTry Harder! Nice to hear the HC emphasizing situational awareness and focus. He doesn’t beat them up over effort. Just emphasizes the areas for improvement.

  46. v4ance says:

    jtblack:
    Tippett.pissedat the post game avail

    He focused on areas that the Oilers could improve on but I think a private call between Holland and the NHL’s director of officiating is warranted to call out the biased refereeing.

  47. BONE207 says:

    Pescador: Oh sure blame the liquor

    Not blaming the liquor. I’m looking for a solution to extract even more enjoyment. Ya…that’s it.

  48. Admiral Ackbar says:

    I thought the momentum turned hard on the Larson play. That suicide pass to Chaisson was payment in full on arrival by Graves and then after such a dumb pass, Larson makes a boneheaded shot to the head. That was very stupid/selfish. The wheels didn’t fall off immediately, they killed the penalties, but they eventually did. They may have lost anyway, McLeon looked gassed all night. I was impressed they stuck around for even half the game at the end of the road trip.

  49. Wilde says:

    Persson is probably the best defenseman on the Condors by a fair margin

  50. frjohnk says:

    Avs played well and other than Koskinen, no Oiler really stood out in a positive way.

    I thought the Avs would be missing Rantenan, Landeskog, Johnson and depth players Wilson and Calvert but when you replace those guys with refs, you can afford to lose 2 top line forwards and a top 4 Dman.

  51. BONE207 says:

    frjohnk:
    Avs played well and other than Koskinen, no Oiler really stood out in a positive way.

    I thought the Avs would be missing Rantenan, Landeskog, Johnson and depth players Wilson and Calvert but when you replace those guys with refs, you can afford to lose 2 top line forwards and a top 4 Dman.

    Those Ref guys are veterans. They know how to play the game right. Depth scoring…

  52. tapper says:

    Check out the team stats in terms of PPO vs SHA. Oilers close to the bottom at -13. I can’t remember the last game I watched where they had more PPs than opposition. Can’t have them deploy that top PP too often I guess.

    Some obvious inconsistencies that irritate me are
    – The anti-McDavid “play through it” crap. Still. Worse, it’s now combined with looking for marginal excuses to send Connor off. I’m pretty sure it’s rooted in ego and childishness. They end up under-performing on the job by letting this type of pettiness into their decision-making.
    – When it appears that the refs have decided to let the teams play big boy hockey then it needs to go both ways, let both teams defend with the same vigor.

    I love the game or, to be clear, I love to play the game. But I think too often the NHL demonstrates that it is a really poor showcase/custodian for it so I don’t watch as much. Unfortunately they have cornered the market on the world’s best players. Case-in-point, Connor. He’s breathtaking almost every shift and one of a diminishing number of reasons I tune in. #LetHimPlay

  53. Oilin4 says:

    theDjdj:
    I feellike Bag of Pucks Initial question hasn’t been responded and it’s a fair one. Words are funny. We all decide what we can and can’t say. They’re just sounds. It’s the context that is important. Society picks the context. We choose the terms of engagement. It’s why Australians wouldn’t bat an eyelid (socially) at me using the C word but Americans jaws drop. Or the level of swearing prevalent today would shock my grandmother. There’s no right or wrong or universal truth to the word itself, just the context in which it is used.

    I’ll agree that some the hysteria surrounding the use of the n word is difficult to come to terms with. But I think it’s important to remember your own experience governs you heuristically.

    You’re such a slave! And everyone like you is a slave!

    Did that hurt?

    That’s the point.

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