Patrick Russell

by Lowetide

I find myself wondering about Patrick Russell’s future these days. I remember when the Oilers signed him, it was something like an afterthought. I could barely find a thing on him. Even a year later we were dealing in math and some small anecdotal information. That was about it, to be honest. From those humble beginnings, brick by brick, Patrick Russell is finding his own way. It’s an impressive story.

At the time of his signing I wrote “although most are (I believe correctly) putting less value on the Russell signing than the Drake Caggiula addition, the real facts are that you never know. Both could flop, or both could go on to productive careers.”

Russell isn’t a burner, but he’s near the play all damn game. As for the race to NHL regular status with Drake Caggiula, it isn’t close right now. Russell has played 30 games in the NHL and has four points, while Caggiula sits at 197 games, 35 goals and 65 points. However, if you watch Russell you can see a player who is settling in to a role his coach values and he’s doing it well. Consistently well. I can’t wait to see his future.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. There is also a Christmas gift offer here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • New Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
  • New Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
  • Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
  • Lowetide:  Edmonton Oilers’ farm team recalls invaluable in playoff seasons and paying off in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers deployment shuffle will continue with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins still sidelined
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Ken Holland, who is facing his first deadline in the Jesse Puljujarvi saga
  • Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers go short or long term on Ethan Bear’s next contract?
  • Lowetide: The 2010s: Revisiting the Connor McDavid draft lottery — the day the earth stood still in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Unveiling the Oilers all-decade team
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 2010s: What went wrong with Nail Yakupov? How the No. 1 pick became the decade’s biggest NHL draft bust
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Ranking a decade’s worth of Oilers coaches
  • Lowetide: Tyler Benson posting a strong November in hopes of an Oilers recall
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A superstar shines, a goaltender stands tall and a ‘road hockey’ power play helps the Oilers return to form
  • Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s deployment is a sign the Oilers need a No. 3 centre
  • Jonathan Willis: A Jesse Puljujarvi trade is an opportunity of which only one NHL team gets to take advantage
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanLeon Draisaitl takes the blame as the Oilers’ struggles against lowly foes continues
  • Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS FORWARDS 5-ON-5/60 NOVEMBER 1+

This is from the beginning of November, and Patrick Russell is doing good work! I have no idea how far he’ll go in this league, but he works and pursues the puck and makes things happen. Damn shame they took that goal away from him Sunday night.

CONDORS FORWARDS 2019-20

I have Tyler Benson as my No. 4 prospect this winter, Kailer Yamamoto has more pure talent but he needs to prove he can stay in the lineup in pro hockey. Ryan McLeod has been scoring more than I anticipated in his rookie season, that’s an encouraging number.

For Josh Currie, Joe Gambardella and Cooper Marody, their time is now and being stuck in the AHL (while Russell sleeps on NHL pillows) means time is a wasting. Currie’s eight even-strength goals stand out in a big way on this roster.

Lavoie is an absolute machine this season in the shots column, you’d like him to cash more goals and perhaps that comes as we roll along (he’s at 180 shots and 17 goals currently). Last year he scored 32 goals on 206 shots in 62 games. This year those 180 shots have come in 28 games. Lavoie could post 400 shots this season.

A Chat

I welcome you to this site and hope you enjoy the experience. I have no expectations that you will linger one moment longer than you want. When you leave, I thank you for coming and invite you back at any time.

We have rules. Everyone who has ever posted here has followed them, although there are loud noises from time to time (and we accept those because we also have our moments).

It has been an angry few days, the passion spills over and we lose our minds a little. Ironically, this happens most often when the team is doing well, don’t know why.

Anyway, a few points. Be kind to each other. Ignore the posts that irritate you and engage in the comments that spark your interest. Better yet, start a conversation that is at the heart of your interest and see who chimes back.

Lowetide is like a cafe or bar, everyone is welcome to a seat. You don’t have to sit with someone you don’t like, but they will be in the bar at the same time as you from time to time.

If you choose to leave because the barkeeper won’t throw out patrons you don’t like, the barkeeper will wish you well and hope you come back soon.

I remain humbled by the community this blog fell into years ago and has maintained for almost 15 years now. If it goes away tomorrow, I’m a rich man for the memories. All are welcome. Your time is your time. Spend it well.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy and fun morning starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will contemplate the Oilers and just how good the are, and we’ll probably talk a little about Taylor Hall. Andrew Peard and Corey Graham will pop in for a live hit and discuss the Edmonton Oil Kings and their fascinating season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

331 comments
0

You may also like

0 0 votes
Article Rating
331 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Wilde

Bag of Pucks,

Just wanted to drop in and address this quickly and give a little roadmap – all you did was dodge my questions about your critique of what’s transpired. In such a way that I don’t think you’re actually an actively dishonest interlocutor, you just really want to get shots in at whatever I represent in your head wrt your various social grievances and that is prioritised above all else.

Short rundown:

I opened by saying that any change that happens could be subject to your critique:

Wilde: a people’s movement to do anything (in the internet age) seems demonisable by flatly characterising it as runaway internet social justice mobbery. Nothing is going to change without popular pressure, and even if everything happens in the real world there will be reactions to unfolding events online.

You dodge and recharacterize the abstract idea of social change as vigilantism:

Bag of Pucks:
Like most, you’ve made an eloquent argument for vigilantism. Nothing more. Nothing less.

I press you again, what is the criteria that differentiates, for example, a movement to investigate the Catholic Church’s decades of abuse, and a hypothetical one that sparks investigation into CHL teams? If what’s already occurred is vigilantism, what is the criteria that makes it so? If what’s already occurred isn’t, what your criteria for already sounding the alarm?

You again dodge and attempt to reframe my question of your critique, ventriloquizing me as some youthful zealot uninterested in sussing out nuance when /I am asking you to provide it/:

Bag of Pucks: Your posts are actually fascinating because they show how the vigilante creates and maintains the justifications to appoint themselves as judge, jury and executioner and then escalates that rationale into action under the belief that if they don’t take justice into their own hands, nothing will be done, nothing will change. Who are you to decide that?

One more thing.

I think it’s amusing when you say my argument is “always the same”.

There’s a reason for that, my friend.

It’s because you’ve never responded to it.

Bag of Pucks

Wilde,

I’ve repeatedly said on this topic that advocating for due process is not advocating for doing nothing. It’s advocating for a process that respects the rights of both accused and accuser to be heard and share their sides of the story.

No offense, your rhetoric is strong on this but your content is weak. Your argument is always the same. You broad brush the accused and inflate the actions of a few to claim systemic abuses (with nothing beyond the anecdotal as evidence for this). With the accused suitably demonized, you then prop up rationales to support vigilantism and the ignoring of a more measured investigative process under the aegis of overdue social change demanding immediate actions.

Your posts are actually fascinating because they show how the vigilante creates and maintains the justifications to appoint themselves as judge, jury and executioner and then escalates that rationale into action under the belief that if they don’t take justice into their own hands, nothing will be done, nothing will change. Who are you to decide that?

Imho, your posts also display a youthful tendency to judge human behaviour in black and white archetypes as opposed to the moral shades of grey that most humans traverse. Mike Babcock is not Genghis Khan. Akim Aliu is not Joan of Arc. Both have likely done good deeds. Both have likely made mistakes. Aliu has claimed that Babcock’s actions contributed to him not having an NHL career and he has since met with the league. I smell a quiet out of court settlement coming.

If that’s the case, then Aliu has just leveraged the current social media cause du jour to facilitate a financial gain (and a measure of revenge) that would’ve been his likely result if progressing this grievance in the courts.

N64

ArmchairGM: I don’t know if Acme does large vermin, but I’ll give you $2 per tail.

The thing about ACME and Coyotes is you don’t have to pay ACME to destroy him. Coyote will do the mail order himself. #meepmeep

Sierra

kgo:
Anyone else wonder if Jesse had a MeToo moment he’s keeping quiet?

No

stephen sheps

Lowetide,

it sounds like something I’d recommend, but I don’t want to take credit if it was not in fact me.

Regardless, I’m thrilled that you like it. He’s somehow managed to get even better as a solo artist than he ever was with the Drive-By Truckers, and considering he wrote Danko/Manuel (along with Outfit and Decoration Day) when he was with them (and only 22 years old at the time), that’s saying something.

If I were to recommend any 3 songs from his solo output, I’d go with Elephant (from Southeastern), Alabama Pines (from Here We Rest or Live From Alabama – which is an excellent live release), and Something More than Free (which is the title track from his 2015 release). Yes I acknowledge all 3 songs are a bit on the slower side but holy hell are the lyrics ever good.

frjohnk

drglen: Taylor Hall, lets move on

you must be new here

drglen

Taylor Hall, lets move on. Even if it were possible money wise, which it isn’t, let’s stop making the mistake of paying big money for a long contract on the downward tradjectory of a players career. Hall is arguably in his prime, but, we can’t afford these types of mistakes. I’m not even sure Toronto getting Tavares is smart at the end of the day.

I was worried about Kassian , such speed and fearlessness in those corners.. bad back.. this is very worrysome.

Poor Nuge… is it just me, or does he tend to get injured quite a bit? We miss him.

The thing keeping us afloat right now is really the surprisingly great play of Koskinen.

What about having a look at Lagesson in this pre-chrismas window.?

And then there is JP. I kind of wish he was traded prior to this deadline, as I am afraid people will start to lose interest and his value will go down, or at least settle clearly at his somewhat lower than expected value. I’m not sure he is all that tradeable, and calling it 60/40 that he actually skates for the oilers next season.

San Jose is surging, but I think they are inflated. It’s a long season and they’ve come alive, but I project that they are going to settle back down to third or WC. Good veteran team but injuries will come. On the other hand they do have that ‘veteran metal’ .. but I still think they will sink.

Oilers will start to move up, the better Haas and Nygard play, the better the oilers fare as well. Gagner has filled in well, but might this be an opportunity to have a look at a Benson or Yamo, even Marody?

stephen sheps

Yeti: Would something like this band (Bent Knee) appeal to your wilder side, or is it too far on the quirky side of town?
https://youtu.be/Q63OhjXmjw4

I see the appeal and will need to spend more time with this artist. great voice, interesting production, don’t care for the drum sound on this particular track though. When it comes to production, the littlest things can throw me off for a while, but I won’t give up on it until I know for sure how I feel (i,e, the parquet courts record from last year, Wide Awake! – I hate Danger Mouse behind the board and his production nearly wrecked that album for me, but the songs were too good to give up on and now it’s probably my 2nd favourite album of theirs behind Light Up Gold).

Cassandra: Strand of Oaks — Eraserland

This will also be inside my top 10. Forever Chords is a gut punch, Jason Isbell’s cameo on Moon Landing reminds me that he’s almost a better side-man than out in front (and he’s probably my artist of the decade if I’m being honest with myself), Weird Ways sounds like a long-lost Oasis song in the best possible way (the mid-range vocals in the chorus are pure Liam), Fantastic record.

drglen

hunter1909: Even more incredible is how Larry managed to star in both “I Dream of Jeannie” prior to suiting up for the Oilers, and then “Dallas” – presumably after his time spent on the Messier/Anderson line.

lol

Larry Hagman… ha ha.. that makes my morning!

SwedishPoster

Broberg made the swedish WJC team, not surprising but you never know with swedish NT coaches. They always make some head scratching decisions.

This time it’s that Victor Söderström is only in if one of Boqvist or Sandin aren’t realeased by their NHL clubs. Instead they bring Adam Ginning who isn’t very good, has been loaned out by his SHL team to Allsvenskan where he’s been iffy as well, he’s also been clearly outplayed on his club by Simon Lundmark who didn’t(and shouldn’t due to the talent available) make the team.
They also made some weird calls on forwards. It often feels like the WJCs is treated like a graduation party for the age group, in this case the 00s, sprinkled with stars from the younger groups like Broberg from the 01s and Holtz&Raymond from the 02s and not the best group of players. Imo the WJCs has grown past that and the U18s fills the graduation role but I’m obviously not in charge( of anything really).

Professor Q

LadiesloveSmid:
Broberg will certainly be a case to follow in the math vs eyes scouting debate.

Nothing jumps off the stats sheet. Neither did Hampus Lindholm’s, I suppose.

And, he’s still only 17, right?

Give him some time. Revisit in 2 years, see how he then starts in the AHL, then give him a few more there.

ArmchairGM

Harpers Hair:
Looks like those pesky no name Coyotes aren’t going to go away as they win in Columbus.
Time to call ACME?

I don’t know if Acme does large vermin, but I’ll give you $2 per tail.

hunter1909

Reja:
Glenn Anderson, Mark Messier and Larry Hagman scored 100 goals and 119 assists in a 80 game schedule while missing a combined 32 games in 1980-81. I loved that line they were famous for the skate behind the net and then reverse it back to usually Messier for the easy peezy goal. Oilers lead the Division,our special teams are crackerjack, we have the Number 1 and 2 scorers in the league, we’ve been hit with the injury bug but our D is one of the deepest in the league. Who would have thought that going back to the Petry days. If we can squeak out 3-4 on the home stand then we’re styling.

Even more incredible is how Larry managed to star in both “I Dream of Jeannie” prior to suiting up for the Oilers, and then “Dallas” – presumably after his time spent on the Messier/Anderson line.

Wilde

Bag of Pucks,

There’s a ton of misfiring here that I want to get out of the way before I move on to a broader point that’s actually worth it because just the former bit (misfiring) wouldn’t be worth typing up a reply for by itself.

1) I’m sorry man, the point on hegemony/counterhegemony is a complete non-starter. I can’t tell what you’re trying to say or if that’s the word you’re looking for. The only way I can make that sentence work is if you think that it’s a synonym for some kind of ‘happening’.

2) Hold up; you specifically were talking about people on the internet:

Bag of Pucks: If people are entitled to not be victims of bullying or abuse, then similarly, people are entitled to due process and not being victims of mob justice and character assassination by keyboard. If not, you’re just arguing for your preferred flavour of vindictiveness.

You made the comparison here and I (in my opinion) invalidated it. I made no comparison at all, let alone the one that you say I did.

To recount, and rephrase, you made (what I believe to be) a lazy comparison between the content of the allegations (serial abuse in a position of power with the enablement of an even higher power) and “character assassination by keyboard”.

However, in addition to that, I do not believe that early retirement and a shift in reputation for any of the gentlemen involved constitutes anything close to long-term emotional and physical abuse.

I generally don’t like to see anyone fired, but I think there’d be much less uproar if this happened to a player instead. Most people seem to see themselves in the coach or the GM and are very eager to see everyone be very charitable to them. Maybe I’m wrong.

I’ll move on after one more thing:

Bag of Pucks: That’s some Fox news calibre editorializing.

Maybe you have a higher opinion on Fox News than I do, but if we’re of the same mind on them then if I ever tossed an equivalent insult in your direction you’d be off about how no one would ever say that to you in person. Just sayin’.

Bag of Pucks:
Like most, you’ve made an eloquent argument for vigilantism. Nothing more. Nothing less.

This is the main thing I wanted to get to – the unconditionality with which you (and many others) seem to condemn even the thought of any social movement.

Once again, rephrased as a question: by your standards, is there a social change that’s happened in the past or could happen in the future that wouldn’t be hit by the “mob justice” critique that you have on a hair trigger? Is there any social change that is good and not “vigilantism”?

I’m going to take for granted that everyone reading this (including yourself) doesn’t approve of the hazing in junior hockey and the use of racial slurs, kicking and emotional abuse contained in the allegations that have been made against hockey culture more broadly.

If you do approve of it, you should just be arguing that /nothing/ should happen to the perpetrators. Your objection shouldn’t be strategic; that this “mob justice” might go too far. It’d be that justice is nothing happening.

The only other option is if you think it’s already gone too far, which loops back to the point that your comparison is then necessarily a comparison between the abuses and being fired for them.

Reja

Glenn Anderson, Mark Messier and Larry Hagman scored 100 goals and 119 assists in a 80 game schedule while missing a combined 32 games in 1980-81. I loved that line they were famous for the skate behind the net and then reverse it back to usually Messier for the easy peezy goal. Oilers lead the Division, our special teams are crackerjack, we have the Number 1 and 2 scorers in the league, we’ve been hit with the injury bug but our D is one of the deepest in the league. Who would have thought that going back to the Petry days. If we can squeak out 3-4 on the home stand then we’re styling.

kgo

Anyone else wonder if Jesse had a MeToo moment he’s keeping quiet?

Reja

jp:
Strength of remaining schedule is contributing too I guess.

Pacific Division teams (and rank among all NHL teams – hardest to easiest)
Ducks 4th
Flames 9th
Coyotes 19th
Canucks 21st
Kings 24th
Knights 26th
Oilers 28th
Sharks 30th

The schedule seems to favour the Oilers staying where they are while Vegas and SJ solidify themselves
going forward.

http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php

If anybody thinks Leon, Connor and company aren’t going to drag my beloved Oiler team into the playoffs let the betting wickets open and the standard 2-1 odds are applied when you’re trying to piss in someone’s front living room.

Bruce McCurdy

I don’t keep up with all the new music like some of you kids, been digging into my old vinyl collection quite a bit since I got my new turntable & a new office to play it in, & I am by nature a radio guy. But these last three months I’ve been spiralling in to the new Tool album Fear Inoculum like a big ol’ Archimedes screw. As Glovjuice pointed out in early days after its release, Pneuma is a fucking masterpiece (or words to that effect!) which puts it a nose in front of the other 5 epic tiunes of >10 minutes duration.

i’ve been frequently listening to that albuuuum on my daily walks, which for a while there morphed from the standard target time of one hour to 86 minutes & 44 seconds! This thing is easily the length of an old double album like Tommy or The Wall or The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway. Gets my blood going & my pace up & about 1 kilometre under my boots for each of those ten-minute tracks.

I’m more a prog rock fan than a metal head. Thus my affinity for 10+ minute epics. Tool is definitively prog metal, with an exceptionally high degree of complexity, creativity/inventiveness, & musical virtuosity. To my ears a direct descendant of his royal highness King Crimson. 21st Century Schizoid Music.

Reja

Bag of Pucks: Btw, the bias in the rhetoric here couldn’t be more obvious.

3 head coaches with abuse allegations in a week is a hegemony!

Meanwhile, people losing their jobs and having their reputations smeared is “mean things said about you on the internet.”

That’s some Fox news calibre editorializing.

You’re out of order! You’re out of order! The whole trial is out of order! They’re out of order!

jp

Georgexs:
I think we’re talking about paying $8.5M+ for these types of seasons. Tough to pull off in this hockey crazy market. There’d be pressure on Hall if he failed to break, what? 70?

OriginalPouzar:
Georgexs,

magine signing the guy for $8.5M (let along the higher amount its likely to be) and he averages 57 points per season?

What does $8.5M buy you these days?

I’ll look at the 3 full seasons leading up to recent UFA signings (or UFA age extensions).

For reference, Hall has scored 1.01 P/GP and averaged 61 TP (2016-17 through 2018-19)

Brayden Schenn $6.5M 0.77, 60
Artemi Panarin $11.6M 1.00, 81
Matt Duchesne $8M 0.73, 57
Joe Pavelski $7M 0.83 66 (already age 34!)
Anders Lee $7M 0.67 55
Kevin Hayes $7.14 0.66 49
Jeff Skinner $9M 0.72 58
Brock Nelson $6M 0.54 44
Mark Stone $9.5M 0.92 63

Tyler Seguin $9.85M 0.94 74
Max Pacioretty $7M 0.74 63
Blake Wheeler $8.25 0.99 81 (already age 32!)
Nikita Kucherov $9.5M 1.09 84
John Tavares $11M 0.94 73
James van Riemsdyk $7M 0.71 48
Logan Couture $8M 0.73 50
Evander Kane $7M 0.62 44

I dunno. Even if you look at straight points (which I think is wildly unfair to Hall) then $8.5M seems like fair market value. If you look at P/GP, well he’s ahead of the guys making $11M.

Also, would it be fair to say that the elites (non-McDavid/Crosby division) aren’t quite a elite as we think they are?

Bag of Pucks

Wilde:
Bag of Pucks,

What you’re describing is the need to build a counterhegemony instead of just reinhabiting the current one, which is legitimate, but the application is dangerously wrong.

Getting mean things said about you on the internet is not in the same stratosphere to being forced to strip naked in front of older peers and get paddled until you don’t flinch anymore.

It’s highly likely that no perpetrator is going to face anywhere near the amount of harm they inflicted.

If they did, not only would that be ethically ambiguous, but it would be strategically unadvisable (from someone who is sympathetic to this cause like myself) and in effect just a role reversal, yes.

Also, I will note that a people’s movement to do anything (in the internet age) seems demonisable by flatly characterising it as runaway internet social justice mobbery. Nothing is going to change without popular pressure, and even if everything happens in the real world there will be reactions to unfolding events online.

One would need to argue that said change is bad – not that the methods are deontologically forbidden.

Btw, the bias in the rhetoric here couldn’t be more obvious.

3 head coaches with abuse allegations in a week is a hegemony!

Meanwhile, people losing their jobs and having their reputations smeared is “mean things said about you on the internet.”

That’s some Fox news calibre editorializing.

Bag of Pucks

Wilde,

Like most, you’ve made an eloquent argument for vigilantism. Nothing more. Nothing less.

jp

Georgexs: I’ll share some more of what I’m seeing.

Here are the point totals for Hall comps from their 29th year forward (we’d be signing Hall for his 29+ years). I’m going to exclude Kovalchuk up because I don’t think Hall is at that level.

Player, Pts at 29, Pts at 30, etc.

Backstrom, 86, 71, 74
Spezza, 5, 66, 62, 63, 50, 26, 27
Heatley, 64, 53, 21, 28, 0
Getzlaf, 70, 63, 73, 61, 48
Giroux, 102, 85
Kopitar, 52, 90, 60
Gaborik, 76, 27, 30, 47, 22, 21, 21
Benn, 53
Toews, 52, 81
Staal, 61, 54, 39, 65, 76, 52
Semin, 42, 19, 4
Stastny, 46, 49, 40, 53, 42
Parise, 56, 62, 53, 42, 24, 61
Vanek, 68, 52, 41, 48, 56, 36
Nash, 39, 69, 36, 38, 34
Perry, 55, 62, 53, 49, 10

I think we’re talking about paying $8.5M+ for these types of seasons. Tough to pull off in this hockey crazy market. There’d be pressure on Hall if he failed to break, what? 70?

If we’re being optimistic, Hall could follow in these players’ footsteps:

Player, Career Pts/GP at 28, Pts at 29, Pts at 30, etc.

Kessel, 0.77, 70, 92, 82
Bergeron, 0.75, 55, 68, 53, 63, 79
Marchand, 0.70, 85, 100
Pavelski, 0.70, 79, 70, 78, 68, 66, 64
Wheeler, 0.68, 78, 74, 91, 91

I think, other than Kessel, these guys were all signed to very favorable contracts for their teams. The number that Hall is going to sign for is going to leave very little room for unexpected value.

Yeah when you put it into actual points it gives you (me) some pause. Though this also obscures the P/G numbers you posted earlier a bit.

There’s no question there’s a drop off, on average. And there’s no question there’s risk in Hall’s case (and all UFA deals really).

To compare some apples to apples though – total points in the 3 seasons before and after age 28 for some of the guys you show above:

Backstrom, 79, 78, 70 / 86, 71, 74
Spezza, 57, 57, 84 / 5, 66, 62
Heatley, 82, 72, 82 / 64, 53, 21
Getzlaf, 57, 49, 87 / 70, 63, 73
Giroux, 73, 67, 58 / 102, 85
Kopitar, 70, 64, 74 / 52, 90, 60

I’ll stop there. Maybe the rest of the list shows something different. But this doesn’t look as scary as the raw point totals without the context of what happened before age 28.

Back to the original list of P/GP you posted. The group averages of <27 and <28:

28 0.86 P/GP or 71Pts/82 GP

And again, in some cases the “after” data would I think include the tails of players careers well out. The drop-off is definitely there but it’s not precipitous.

jp

Numenius,

That would be correct. Facepalm.

Numenius

jp:
Strength of remaining schedule is contributing too I guess.

Pacific Division teams (and rank among all NHL teams – hardest to easiest)
Ducks 4th
Flames 9th
Coyotes 19th
Canucks 21st
Kings 24th
Knights 26th
Oilers 28th
Sharks 30th

The schedule seems to favour the Oilers staying where they are while Vegas and SJ solidify themselves
going forward.

http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php

Are you sure you have the data right? I think you’re looking at the strength of schedule already played. Looking at the link, the strength of schedule going forward, from hardest to easiest is:

4. Sharks
14. Oilers
16. Knights
18. Coyotes

So the Sharks have the most difficult future schedule, the Oilers and Knights are about in the middle, and the Coyotes have it a little easier (but not much).

That bodes well enough for the OIlers and Knights, and a bit better for the Coyotes, but not so well for the Sharks.

Dee Dee

It will be interesting to see where Hall ends up signing, I don’t think there are really very many teams that can afford him.

Blue Jackets, Islanders, Senators, Devils, Kings, Canadiens can afford him without dumping Salary.

If he wants to win then you are left with the Blue Jackets and the Islanders?

Teams that COULD afford him would have to wedge him into set Rosters.

The Bruins for example are paying Marchand and Pastrnak only $6 Million, are they going to pay Hall more? I doubt it.

Flames are hosed next year. They have 5 defenders to resign, lots of bad contracts.

Oilers have $24ish Million cap space next year and have to sign 8 forwards (only 6 under contract) and 4 defenders including Bear and Nurse. That’s awful math.

He could hope to get traded to a contender at the Deadline, but he could end up going to Ottawa for all he knows.

v4ance

I feel that too many are against the Hall trade because they have the mindset of a rebuild. In the rebuild phase, we hoard picks and prospects until we are a team in contention. We’ve been wandering in the darkness of being a lottery team, we’ve forgotten what it’s like to behave like a contender.

A team in contention can and SHOULD expend assets to build the best contender possible. Despite most people’s pre-season prognostications (including my own) the Oilers have overachieved and are currently sitting in top spot in the Pacific. For the most part, the success is built on our top line, a solid goalie tandem and special teams. The powerplays will dry up in the playoffs so then the keys to success will only be the goaltending and McDavid-Draisaitl.

My biggest fear is that WHEN we make it to the playoffs, the opposing team will simply blanket McDavid and win by outscoring our bottom 3 lines. Having Hall makes that an untenable strategy.

With Hall we can run Hall-RNH or Hall Drai with McD-Drai or McD-RNH and have two outscoring “1st lines”. I believe Hall’s true ability has been suppressed due to a lack of elite teammates in New Jersey and his intermittent injuries. I believe in Edmonton, he would be part of a devastating one-two punch with McDavid.

We always moan about not being able to attract top tier free agents who don’t want to be in Edmonton for various reasons. Hall loved it in Edmonton and is an elite talent who is actually available. If we acquired a Chris Kreider or a Mike Hoffman, we have no clue if they would want to stay or if they would bolt at the first opportunity. I think we would have a strong chance to re-sign Hall at a reasonable deal with his stated preference of trying to win cups as his main motivation.

I feel that a Hall acquistion would be like a Kahwi Leonard type trade. He has injury issues but getting him on the team would be the difference between just making the playoffs versus being a real Stanley Cup contender. McDavid and Draisaitl are having historic seasons which they will probably not repeat many more times. Not giving them the maximum help in going for cups during their prime periods of production would be a disservice to them and to the team and to the long suffering fans.

In 2016, goaltending and McDavid-Draisaitl got us to the second round but that wasn’t enough to go any further. I hope we don’t make that same mistake twice.

Munny

Hockey, gents, let’s not forget.

geowal

Harpers Hair: Since today seems to be a look back at music I revisited a video of the tribute to George Harrison featuring Dhani Harrison, Tom Petty, Steve Winwood and Prince among others.
I’ve tried to post a link to the YouTube video here without success but encourage everyone who values musical genius to find it.

Whiie My Guitar Gently Weeps….make sure to watch through to the end where Prince drops the mic….pure genius.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6SFNW5F8K9Y

Think that’s the one.

pts2pndr

Bag of Pucks:
If people are entitled to not be victims of bullying or abuse, then similarly, people are entitled to due process and not being victims of mob justice and character assassination by keyboard. If not, you’re just arguing for your preferred flavour of vindictiveness.

Too many people are over simplifying this as social justice=young=progressive=good vs status quo=old=regressive=bad

Bullying does not make mob justice justifiable. We created due process for a reason. Those control mechanisms have value.

You are correct re due process. If more people are made aware of what is and isn’t acceptable the less likely abuse will happen. Most of the time it only takes one person to speak up and say “that is not acceptable”.

jp

Ryan: Dom’s model fades the Yotes. 53% chance of making playoffs.

Harpers Hair: Yep. But he had them losing tonight.
That will go up.

Strength of remaining schedule is contributing too I guess.

Pacific Division teams (and rank among all NHL teams – hardest to easiest)
Ducks 4th
Flames 9th
Coyotes 19th
Canucks 21st
Kings 24th
Knights 26th
Oilers 28th
Sharks 30th

The schedule seems to favour the Oilers staying where they are while Vegas and SJ solidify themselves
going forward.

http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php

Munny

Georgexs,

Are you able to do this for just the next 5 years?

Looking over the list, to my eye, the better skaters on the whole did better.

Also the younger the better… less of the aging curve in effect, hence my request above.

Couple who did poorly, Gaborik and Semin were affected by injury.

You can see the effect of more talented linemates on Tavares.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Firstly, my post was in in jest and a joke about Jersey having the flames first round pick and it being 1st overall.

Secondly, the key here is “while still an elite player” and, well, he’s had an elite season once in the last five years and its currently trending to be one in six.

Lets say he does sign a massive team friendly deal of 5 X $8.5M, as unlikely as that is, ask yourself how many times in the last 5 seasons he has been worth $8.5M. Your answer will surely be once.

Now ask yourself how many times he is likely to be worth that in the next 5 years? Shit, even not taking into account 23-28 age vs 29-35 age, the answer is “buyer beware” is it not?

Took me a while to get back to this so a lot has been discussed already.

1) Yes it was a joke today, but I recall you stating the position a couple of times previously (I believe).

2) You’re picking 5 years and omitting the preceding 2 seasons (where both years Hall was essentially injury free, a >1 PPG player and a top 10 scorer in the NHL). Intentionally or not you are literally picking the worst window to look at Hall’s career.

3) I think he’ll be worth $8.5M on average over the next 5 years. In fact I’d be ecstatic to sign him to $8.5M X 5 years. $11M X 7 yrs is a bit of a different story. But $8.5M, Hell yeah.

4) The relative goal share that Woodguy posted.

5) Buyer beware is fair all the same, no question there’s risk.

OriginalPouzar:

I will stand by my position that he hasn’t been worth his current contract over the aggregate of the last 5 years.

As someone said earlier, I don’t think your valuation is reasonable here.

At $6M Hall is currently tied with 15 other players for the 62nd highest paid forward in the NHL. (that is, 76 NHL forwards make at least $6M currently). I know the deal was richer in the earlier years than it is now, but in that window Hall is:

#40 in total points
#25 in Pts/G

Seems like he covered his contract bet rather easily. Is Nuge not worth his salary either? Cause he’s a fair distance back of Hall based on almost everything aside from contract.

OriginalPouzar

Georgexs,

In his last 5 full seasons, he has produced at pretty much that exact rate – 0.91 points per game.

Of course, in the last 5 full seasons he has averaged 52 points per season.

Imagine signing the guy for $8.5M (let along the higher amount its likely to be) and he averages 57 points per season?

Imagine what is reasonable if we take in to account has age in the next 5 years vs. his age in the past 5 years.

Wilde

Bag of Pucks,

What you’re describing is the need to build a counterhegemony instead of just reinhabiting the current one, which is legitimate, but the application is dangerously wrong.

Getting mean things said about you on the internet is not in the same stratosphere to being forced to strip naked in front of older peers and get paddled until you don’t flinch anymore.

It’s highly likely that no perpetrator is going to face anywhere near the amount of harm they inflicted.

If they did, not only would that be ethically ambiguous, but it would be strategically unadvisable (from someone who is sympathetic to this cause like myself) and in effect just a role reversal, yes.

Also, I will note that a people’s movement to do anything (in the internet age) seems demonisable by flatly characterising it as runaway internet social justice mobbery. Nothing is going to change without popular pressure, and even if everything happens in the real world there will be reactions to unfolding events online.

One would need to argue that said change is bad – not that the methods are deontologically forbidden.

pts2pndr

leadfarmer: Absolutely.And the goal should be how do I make things better for the next generation and not how to keep things the same
I actually find that the people that complain about the younger generation are the people that have the most trouble effectively communicating with that generation
Showing a med student or resident multiple times how to do the same thing can get annoying but it’s a lot better than the, see one, do one teach, one era of teaching where one residents error gets propagated.Especially better for the patient

I have always found that it is better to take the time to assure that instructions are understood than to deal with mistakes made when instructions have not been understood.

jtblack

Georgexs,

Feel like OP. messaging myself.

Another takeaway. Although PPG drops off slightly, I am guessing overall game impact is near peak 27 – 30

jtblack

OriginalPouzar: Yup, he’s an elite talent but if, at the end of the last five 82 game seasons, you took a look and asked if Hall was worth $6M that season only one time would the answer be a resounding yes.

He is an elite talent that has simply not been providing elite production on a season by season basis for years.

I see so much risk here.

+1

jtblack

Georgexs,

another quick Analysis.
of those 25 Great Players, only 3 are higher.

So as a GM, you know you are buying decline. Trick is.. how much and how soon?

jtblack

Georgexs,

WOULD LOVE to see exact same info with pre 27 & post 31 …

May show clearer where the cliff is?

flyfish1168

Ryan:
who,

If I were Taylor Hall’s friend…

I would tell to get himself to Denver.

Hall in Denver is a fit and story that writes itself.

IF it doesn’t work out in Denver at least Hall can be the lucky charm to win the lottery. 😉

jp

Georgexs,

Thanks for the data.

My scan of the list told me that there’s a small decline on average, with a few pretty big drops in there. Considering the 28+ data (presumably) includes performance beyond age 33 in many cases, I took this as indicating a pretty good outcome overall. Interesting we had such different conclusions (admittedly I only looked at the numbers for 30 seconds).

jtblack

Georgexs: I think you mean the aging curve here.

Last season was Hall’s 27th year by age. By the end of it, he was a career 0.91 P/GP player. That’s elite. No question at all.

Here are some players who were drafted in 2000 or later who scored at a comparable rate by the end of their 27th year and the rate at which they scored from that point on (not including this season’s data):

Player, Career P/GP up to 27th year, P/GP from 28th year

Crosby, 1.36, 1.15
Malkin, 1.22, 1.11
Ovechkin, 1.22, 0.99
Kane, 1.01, 1.12
Stamkos, 1.01, 1.20
Kovalchuk, 1.00, 0.83
Backstrom, 0.99, 0.95
Spezza, 1.01, 0.71
Heatley, 1.07, 0.69
Getzlaf, 0.94, 0.94
Tavares, 0.93, 1.07
Giroux, 0.90, 1.00
Kopitar, 0.90, 0.87
Gaborik, 0.90, 0.64
Benn, 0.89, 0.83
Toews, 0.87, 0.84
Staal, 0.89, 0.75
Semin, 0.87, 0.60
Stastny, 0.85, 0.71
Parise, 0.82, 0.76
Vanek, 0.82, 0.71
Nash, 0.81, 0.67
Perry, 0.81, 0.75

From this, there do appear to be risks in betting on future production from even elite level talent after a certain age. If you think Hall is in the Kovalchuk to Crosby category, then, yeah, go for it. If you think he’s in the next tier, then you should be very, very careful with dollars and term for Hall’s 29+ years.

not sure how you got the infom AMAZING!!

who

OriginalPouzar: I love Hall but he has been worth $8.5M once over the last 5 years and the other four years were not even close. These were his 23-27 years.He’s trending to not be worth close to $8.5M in a sixth year.

How many of those 7 year, from the ages of 29-36 do we reasonably expect him to be worth that type of cap hit, even with the cap rising?

I don’t understand how this type of deal would make this team better over the next 2-7 years.

Getting rid of Neal’s contract is a nice cherry though.

I think the deal makes the Oilers better for the next 3 to 4 years, but it probably stings for the last 3.
If the Oilers had any impact forwards coming I would say no. But they don’t.
The best thing the Oilers give up is probably the 2020 1st. Don’t know if that’s enough for NJ to pull the trigger.

Reja

Harpers Hair:
Looks like those pesky no name Coyotes aren’t going to go away as they win in Columbus.
Time to call ACME?

You should have made the bet.

Bag of Pucks

If people are entitled to not be victims of bullying or abuse, then similarly, people are entitled to due process and not being victims of mob justice and character assassination by keyboard. If not, you’re just arguing for your preferred flavour of vindictiveness.

Too many people are over simplifying this as social justice=young=progressive=good vs status quo=old=regressive=bad

Bullying does not make mob justice justifiable. We created due process for a reason. Those control mechanisms have value.

OriginalPouzar

who: Do you think Hall agrees to a 1 year contract? And if so, how much?
Might be more likely if he continues to struggle this year. Makes more sense for him to accept a 1 year “show me” deal.
Still don’t think it’s likely.
How about this,
Neal, JP, Jones/Samarukov, Benson/Yamamoto, 2020 1st to NJ for
Hall (extended for 7×8.5), 2020 2nd to Edm.
Which team says no?
Would you do it if you were Holland?

I love Hall but he has been worth $8.5M once over the last 5 years and the other four years were not even close. These were his 23-27 years. He’s trending to not be worth close to $8.5M in a sixth year.

How many of those 7 year, from the ages of 29-36 do we reasonably expect him to be worth that type of cap hit, even with the cap rising?

I don’t understand how this type of deal would make this team better over the next 2-7 years.

Getting rid of Neal’s contract is a nice cherry though.

Harpers Hair

Ryan: Dom’s model fades the Yotes. 53% chance of making playoffs.

Yep. But he had them losing tonight.
That will go up.