Patrick Russell

I find myself wondering about Patrick Russell’s future these days. I remember when the Oilers signed him, it was something like an afterthought. I could barely find a thing on him. Even a year later we were dealing in math and some small anecdotal information. That was about it, to be honest. From those humble beginnings, brick by brick, Patrick Russell is finding his own way. It’s an impressive story.

At the time of his signing I wrote “although most are (I believe correctly) putting less value on the Russell signing than the Drake Caggiula addition, the real facts are that you never know. Both could flop, or both could go on to productive careers.”

Russell isn’t a burner, but he’s near the play all damn game. As for the race to NHL regular status with Drake Caggiula, it isn’t close right now. Russell has played 30 games in the NHL and has four points, while Caggiula sits at 197 games, 35 goals and 65 points. However, if you watch Russell you can see a player who is settling in to a role his coach values and he’s doing it well. Consistently well. I can’t wait to see his future.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. There is also a Christmas gift offer here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • New Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
  • New Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
  • Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
  • Lowetide:  Edmonton Oilers’ farm team recalls invaluable in playoff seasons and paying off in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers deployment shuffle will continue with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins still sidelined
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Ken Holland, who is facing his first deadline in the Jesse Puljujarvi saga
  • Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers go short or long term on Ethan Bear’s next contract?
  • Lowetide: The 2010s: Revisiting the Connor McDavid draft lottery — the day the earth stood still in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Unveiling the Oilers all-decade team
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 2010s: What went wrong with Nail Yakupov? How the No. 1 pick became the decade’s biggest NHL draft bust
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Ranking a decade’s worth of Oilers coaches
  • Lowetide: Tyler Benson posting a strong November in hopes of an Oilers recall
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A superstar shines, a goaltender stands tall and a ‘road hockey’ power play helps the Oilers return to form
  • Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s deployment is a sign the Oilers need a No. 3 centre
  • Jonathan Willis: A Jesse Puljujarvi trade is an opportunity of which only one NHL team gets to take advantage
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanLeon Draisaitl takes the blame as the Oilers’ struggles against lowly foes continues
  • Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS FORWARDS 5-ON-5/60 NOVEMBER 1+

This is from the beginning of November, and Patrick Russell is doing good work! I have no idea how far he’ll go in this league, but he works and pursues the puck and makes things happen. Damn shame they took that goal away from him Sunday night.

CONDORS FORWARDS 2019-20

I have Tyler Benson as my No. 4 prospect this winter, Kailer Yamamoto has more pure talent but he needs to prove he can stay in the lineup in pro hockey. Ryan McLeod has been scoring more than I anticipated in his rookie season, that’s an encouraging number.

For Josh Currie, Joe Gambardella and Cooper Marody, their time is now and being stuck in the AHL (while Russell sleeps on NHL pillows) means time is a wasting. Currie’s eight even-strength goals stand out in a big way on this roster.

Lavoie is an absolute machine this season in the shots column, you’d like him to cash more goals and perhaps that comes as we roll along (he’s at 180 shots and 17 goals currently). Last year he scored 32 goals on 206 shots in 62 games. This year those 180 shots have come in 28 games. Lavoie could post 400 shots this season.

A Chat

I welcome you to this site and hope you enjoy the experience. I have no expectations that you will linger one moment longer than you want. When you leave, I thank you for coming and invite you back at any time.

We have rules. Everyone who has ever posted here has followed them, although there are loud noises from time to time (and we accept those because we also have our moments).

It has been an angry few days, the passion spills over and we lose our minds a little. Ironically, this happens most often when the team is doing well, don’t know why.

Anyway, a few points. Be kind to each other. Ignore the posts that irritate you and engage in the comments that spark your interest. Better yet, start a conversation that is at the heart of your interest and see who chimes back.

Lowetide is like a cafe or bar, everyone is welcome to a seat. You don’t have to sit with someone you don’t like, but they will be in the bar at the same time as you from time to time.

If you choose to leave because the barkeeper won’t throw out patrons you don’t like, the barkeeper will wish you well and hope you come back soon.

I remain humbled by the community this blog fell into years ago and has maintained for almost 15 years now. If it goes away tomorrow, I’m a rich man for the memories. All are welcome. Your time is your time. Spend it well.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy and fun morning starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will contemplate the Oilers and just how good the are, and we’ll probably talk a little about Taylor Hall. Andrew Peard and Corey Graham will pop in for a live hit and discuss the Edmonton Oil Kings and their fascinating season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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336 Responses to "Patrick Russell"

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  1. Wonder Llama says:

    pts2pndr: Off subject but new for your dictionary
    This blog-Lowetide Lounge
    The bartender – our gracious host

    My thanks to all who contribute!

    There have been so many great suggestions for the Lowetide Dictionary.

    I don’t have the knowledge to do justice to them all.

    I think I’ll do one more edition with the updates I feel confident about and include a list of terms I’m not qualified to define (I’ll try to drop it on a slow discussion day). At that point I think it should become a collaborative community project for any who wish to participate.

    Eventually we’ll submit it to a worthy peer-reviewed journal. Publish or perish!

  2. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    There has to be some appreciation of that reality. If not, I’m getting into the lynching supply business. Specials this week on rope, tar, feathers, and redacted history books.

    I have all that for sale if you’re interested.

    Pitch forks and torches as well.

    The moat stays though.

    And to think for all this time I was under the belief you were all about wood! Who knew.😢

  3. Cassandra says:

    Moreover, the hockey world knows this is true. There is a reason why coaches have to take things like the respect in sport activity leader course. It is because there is recognition that this is a problem, a problem that goes back in time, which means there is a recognition that it has always been wrong.

    Your attitude provides cover for what does not deserve cover. This has nothing to do with politically correct attitudes and the thought police and times changing.

    I was born in the seventies and grew up in the eighties. It is simply not true that there was ever a time that this would have been accepted as normal by well adjusted people.

  4. Reja says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Khaira-Draisaitl-Gagner
    Neal-McDavid-Archibald

    Something something glass houses something.

    No kidding but when you have the number 1PP and Number 2PK how can you possibly not be batting 600.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who,

    With all this talk of trading for Hall I still think most posters are missing the big picture.
    So far I am hearing the following concerns.
    1. It would cost too much in assets to acqire him
    This is a legit concern as I am not a big fan of spending significant assets on rental players. If you extend him it becomes a different conversation, but if I’m signing Hall for big money and term, I’m waiting till summer and saving my picks and prospects.

    I don’t spend much on rentals either. Nothing important goes out the door if there is not extension.


    2. Will Hall agree to sign with Oilers moving forward and what will that contract look like?
    I’m guessing the absolute minimum would be 5 years x 8.5 million. My guess is it would be for more term or more money. Or both.

    This is key.

    Since the cap goes up a ton in 21/22 due to the new US deal I wonder if Hall is willing to sign a one year deal and go long in 21/22 when everyone has ~6MM-$8MM more cap the following season?


    3. Is that kind of contract a good idea for the Oilers?
    Maybe, if he stays healthy. If he’s in the lineup he’s a difference maker.

    I’ve been digging into the aging curves of players who score and drive play like Hall and it looks like you can expect close to what he is until 33 (barring injury and watching this year close to see if he continues to recover)

    The decline generally starts at 33, but they usually don’t decline fast until ~35

    His health is the big bogey.


    The thing is none of the above concerns really matter.
    The key question is how do you fit Taylor Hall into the Oilers cap structure next year? The only way I see it happening is a Darnell Nurse trade.
    So my question is, are you willing to trade Nurse to make room for Hall?

    It’s not an either/or proposition.

    Like I said earlier a one year deal takes care of it well.

    EDM has a ton of fat (Russell, Neal…..Larsson kinda but he’s not your first or second choice)

    It can be done and not big issue.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: You’ve mentioned a few times hoping that the Flames trade for Hall and sign him long term.

    I completely understand the risk and eventual downside of signing Hall to a contract well into his 30’s (and am myself torn on whether it would be worth it). I don’t disagree with you that signing Hall for 7 yrs may well be detrimental in the long run, whoever choses to do it.

    But I have zero interest in Hall joining the Flames over the next 4 or 5 seasons while he’s still an elite player. That coincides with the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts and the Oilers obvious window for contention. It’s possible the Oilers come out ahead this scenario eventually, but that’s playing the long long game waiting for the Flames to feel pain. If he’s not coming back to Edmonton I definitely don’t want to see him join a Pacific Division rival.

    Firstly, my post was in in jest and a joke about Jersey having the flames first round pick and it being 1st overall.

    Secondly, the key here is “while still an elite player” and, well, he’s had an elite season once in the last five years and its currently trending to be one in six.

    Lets say he does sign a massive team friendly deal of 5 X $8.5M, as unlikely as that is, ask yourself how many times in the last 5 seasons he has been worth $8.5M. Your answer will surely be once.

    Now ask yourself how many times he is likely to be worth that in the next 5 years? Shit, even not taking into account 23-28 age vs 29-35 age, the answer is “buyer beware” is it not?

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I mean Khaira & Gagner are practicing on EDM’s top line

    1) the flames are without injury to their top 6 (or even top 9 as far as I know)

    2) 2.18 P/60 and 1.63 P/60 for Gagner and Khaira in November – haven’t checked Lucic’s but I do know he has zero goals in 55 games.

    Oh, and fuck the flames.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: And to think for all this time I was under the belief you were all about wood! Who knew.

    It’s all the crap the angry crowds left at my house.

    It’s worth something so I didn’t throw it away.

  9. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguys lawn .n. A place we store our pitchforks

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I agree you’re most probably correct on this. But would like to add that we don’t actually know with any certainty that he can’t score at the NHL level or play up the lineup at some point.

    His history suggests it isn’t likely, but a couple of examples come to mind as counterpoints.

    Josh Anderson has been mentioned (repeatedly!) by Reja and others as a trade target. He was drafted after scoring 12 goals in the OHL and followed it up by scoring 23 and 27 goals in draft +1 and +2 (51 points in 59 OHL games in Draft +2). Then 7 goals and 18 goals in 2 AHL seasons (25 goals in 111 AHL games total). Based on his own history and boxcars he obviously wasn’t going to score much at the NHL level. Except then he did: 17, 19 (in 63GP) and 27 goals in his 3 NHL seasons. Huh.

    And the original Fernando Pisani himself. Entered college at age 20 and scored 12, 16, 14, 14 goals (Russell scored 10 and 20 in his 2 years). Then 2.5 years in the AHL (in his last season scoring 41-17-15-32 compared to Russell’s 51-18-20-38 this past year). Then he entered the NHL, at essentially the same age as Russell, and proceeded to score 16, 18. 14, 13 goals. Over 450 career games even with that late start.

    The above means very little in projecting Russell except that we can’t rule him out as a 15 goal scorer based on his boxcars. He probably is a 4th liner, which is fine. He’s bringing lots of useful things to the Oilers right now. But you never know, maybe there’s more.

    Sure, I can’t disagree with any of that and there are always late bloomers.

    From the boxcars, as well as watching the player play (including his AHL time as I watched last year), I think its quite likely that we know what this soon to be 27 year old is.

    We can never close the door completely but we can reasonably project.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock: there was a lot of boredom to get to that hot tub

    I think I played the first 3 Leisure Suit Larry’s.

    Used to communicate on BBS boards too.

    Christ I’m old.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: The one year you’re talking about he wasn’t worth 8.5M. He was worth like 13M.

    and the other 4 years?

  13. Reja says:

    Cassandra:
    Moreover, the hockey world knows this is true.There is a reason why coaches have to take things like the respect in sport activity leader course.It is because there is recognition that this is a problem, a problem that goes back in time, which means there is a recognition that it has always been wrong.

    Your attitude provides cover for what does not deserve cover.This has nothing to do with politically correct attitudes and the thought police and times changing.

    I was born in the seventies and grew up in the eighties.It is simply not true that there was ever a time that this would have been accepted as normal by well adjusted people.

    Every Coach has his tactics you think the boys are going to allow a borderline player who clashed with Sather tarnish his reputation.

  14. teddyturnbuckle says:

    On Mike Babcock

    Living in Kelowna with all the retired players around there are a lot of stories that float from cottage to cottage. I heard several Mike Babcock stories last summer but didn’t think much of it or wasn’t sure I believed any of what I was hearing. Now it’s all coming out I think this might be the end of the road for Babcock. No NHL team is going to hire any old school coach with a history of verbal abuse or worse. With a new Babcock story coming out every week why would an NHL team risk an embarrassing situation of another player accusing your coach of abuse down the road. Good riddance. If Babcock makes it to the hall of fame there might be a lot of empty seats.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ57:
    OriginalPouzar,

    We should be good under the cap.

    Before the move, the Oilers had $183K in space.

    $1.4M down, both Jones and Skinner have 2-way deals
    $1M up

    I wasn’t sure if Skinner counted on the cap due to the fact he’s on “emergency loan” but I think he did.

    Either way, yes, we have room for the move but not a second recall – we will be on a 22 man roster, which is fine, but it just shows how close to the cap we are.

    Nuge will come off IR soon and make it a 23 man roster but we couldn’t call, say, Benson, up for tomorrow without another demotion.

  16. Hockey Project says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think I played the first 3 Leisure Suit Larry’s.

    Used to communicate on BBS boards too.

    Christ I’m old.

    I loved local BBS’s, especially if they downloaded newsgroups. The good old days of exchanging ideas on rec.sport.hockey, even if it *was* a day or two old and took some time to get discussions going back and forth.

    That wasn’t a problem anyway, since text downloaded a character at a time, and you would read along as it came.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Shit, even if he did sign for 5 x $8.5M, in how many of the last 5 seasons, in his prime mid to late 20s, has he been worth $8.5M?


    Answer: Once.

    Here’s Hall relative goal share of for his career:

    10/11 1.7
    11/12 9.7
    12/13 10.6
    13/14 8.7
    14/15 15.1
    15/16 12.9
    16/17 10.7
    17/18 13.1
    18/19 13.2

    Can you point out the one year for me?

    Those are nice numbers:

    In the last 5 years, he accumlated the following points:

    2018/19 – 37

    2017/18 – 93

    2016/17 – 53

    2015/16 – 65

    2014/15 – 38

    I am not will to commit large money to a player for his 29-34 age year when the above was his production during his 23-28 age years.

    He’s also trending well below a PPG this year – ya, ya, knee injury but, again, its looking like he’ll be worth elite money once in six years.

    Sometimes you need to look at actual points over the years when talking about paying (assets or cap) for a point producer.

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: Poland had cavalry. Germany tanks.

    In France, instead of going through the expensive and impregnable Maginot Line, they went around it through the Ardennes Forest, and supposedly neutral countries in Belgium and the Netherlands.

    They don’t teach history anymore apparently.

    Apparently they don’t teach manners anymore either.

    Pretty dickish reply to what was clearly a lighthearted post on my part.

  19. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cassandra,

    I’ve deleted my post on this. LT has asked us to give this subject a rest and clearly there’s not much common ground being found.

  20. who says:

    ArmchairGM: That mock shows an improved team with $4.5M in cap space next year. If Russell is traded on top of that then Holland has $8.5M in cap space. Nurse does NOT have to be traded to accommodate a high-tier free agent.

    Ah. Got it.
    Makes sense. I find your projections and trade proposals reasonable.
    Have no idea if you can sign Koivu for 2 million but it really doesn’t matter.
    You may be a little light on your backup goalie, but it’s possible Starret is ready to give you 25 to 30 decent games. If he doesn’t you kind of end up in the same situation as Toronto this year.
    You’d still have to get Hall to sign for 8.5 though. Not sure that is plausible.
    Overall this roster would have a chance, assuming you can trade Russell. My biggest concern would be the goaltending.

  21. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: and the other 4 years?

    I was making a narrower point that I suppose you’re implicitly conceding here but yes, also, on the broader scale this isn’t binary and a player having an MVP season should affect your retrospective valuation of a player’s set of years. It can’t be presented as either they were worth x or they weren’t, it’s how much more or less

    If I pay a player 5Mx2y and they give me a 12M year and a 2M year, your rule doesn’t tell me the reality of the value

  22. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Those are nice numbers:

    In the last 5 years, he accumlated the following points:

    2018/19 – 37

    2017/18 – 93

    2016/17 – 53

    2015/16 – 65

    2014/15 – 38

    I am not will to commit large money to a player for his 29-34 age year when the above was his production during his 23-28 age years.

    He’s also trending well below a PPG this year – ya, ya, knee injury but, again, its looking like he’ll be worth elite money once in six years.

    Sometimes you need to look at actual points over the years when talking about paying (assets or cap) for a point producer.

    Points in a vacuum is great and all, but some players are not lucky enough to have a Mcdavid, Mackinnon, Kucherov, Marchand as a linemate.

    This year, recovering from knee injury, which we always say a player needs a year after surgery, he is once again on an awful team. But guess what. He is leading his team again..
    Last year he had 37 points in 33 games. But was top 5 on a team with one 50 point scorer.
    thats a 92 point pace or +42 points over the next highest player
    The year before he was on the same pace or +41 points over the next player
    The year before he was tied for the team lead
    The year before he was +14 point in his last year in Edmonton

    Halls career is going to be looked over because of the awfulness of the teams hes played on
    So yes, sometimes you have to just take a second and take points into context.

    I would not trade for him as we already have the pisscutter position filled and we need that cap space to fill with the Donskois Connollys Burakovsky like players but hes a good option for a team that needs high end talent

  23. Sierra says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @EdmontonOilers
    The #Oilers have recalled defenceman Joel Persson from the @Condors, placed defenceman Matt Benning on Injured Reserve & assigned defenceman Caleb Jones as well as goaltender Stuart Skinner to Bakersfield. https://t.co/HAGkR9JukF

    This might be the end of the line for Benning. How many times can a guy be injured before the team moves on?

  24. deardylan says:

    Feels like a old new bar… i just skipped over a few rowdies in the corner to get to my seat for the hockey action.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    Bag of Pucks: Apparently they don’t teach manners anymore either.

    Pretty dickish reply to what was clearly a lighthearted post on my part.

    You would think someone who criticized someones knowledge of WWII history would have actual knowledge of wwII history
    The whole Poland used Cavalry against tanks was used as propaganda and actually never happened.
    Cavalry was used for reconnaissance and reserve troop transport and Poland had tanks just not in the quantities required
    the 7TP was a pretty solid tank for its time

    It wasnt the tanks that almost won Germany the war. It was the fast penetrating attack that was used. They adapted Napoleanic tactics with modern weaponry

  26. Side says:

    Cassandra:
    Moreover, the hockey world knows this is true.There is a reason why coaches have to take things like the respect in sport activity leader course.It is because there is recognition that this is a problem, a problem that goes back in time, which means there is a recognition that it has always been wrong.

    Your attitude provides cover for what does not deserve cover.This has nothing to do with politically correct attitudes and the thought police and times changing.

    I was born in the seventies and grew up in the eighties.It is simply not true that there was ever a time that this would have been accepted as normal by well adjusted people.

    I don’t always agree with you on things but man are your posts on this topic bang on. Agree 1000%.

  27. pts2pndr says:

    Cassandra:
    Moreover, the hockey world knows this is true.There is a reason why coaches have to take things like the respect in sport activity leader course.It is because there is recognition that this is a problem, a problem that goes back in time, which means there is a recognition that it has always been wrong.

    Your attitude provides cover for what does not deserve cover.This has nothing to do with politically correct attitudes and the thought police and times changing.

    I was born in the seventies and grew up in the eighties.It is simply not true that there was ever a time that this would have been accepted as normal by well adjusted people.

    Much of what happened can be traced back to returning veterans from WW2. I would guess that if you researched the abuses at training facilities for the military and various police forces including the RCMP you would find abuses were common. As a student in the sixties it was not uncommon for a teacher to keep students in a class over recess because of one students behaviour. This was done knowing the group would ( talk ) to the offender. As a recruit I have personal experience of the above. I fully agree that this unacceptable. The use of fear as a bullying tool and a ( motivator) is still used. You are 100% correct in speaking out as it is the right thing to do.

  28. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Cassandra:
    Moreover, the hockey world knows this is true.There is a reason why coaches have to take things like the respect in sport activity leader course.It is because there is recognition that this is a problem, a problem that goes back in time, which means there is a recognition that it has always been wrong.

    Your attitude provides cover for what does not deserve cover.This has nothing to do with politically correct attitudes and the thought police and times changing.

    I was born in the seventies and grew up in the eighties.It is simply not true that there was ever a time that this would have been accepted as normal by well adjusted people.

    Thank you for your posts on this topic. Bang on.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Points in a vacuum is great and all, but some players are not lucky enough to have a Mcdavid, Mackinnon, Kucherov, Marchand as a linemate.

    This year, recovering from knee injury, which we always say a player needs a year after surgery, he is once again on an awful team.But guess what.He is leading his team again..
    Last year he had 37 points in 33 games.But was top 5 on a team with one 50 point scorer.
    thats a 92 point pace or +42 points over the next highest player
    The year before he was on the same pace or +41 points over the next player
    The year before he was tied for the team lead
    The year before he was +14 point in his last year in Edmonton

    Hallscareer is going to be looked over because of the awfulness of the teams hes played on
    So yes, sometimes you have to just take a second and take points into context.

    I would not trade for him as we already have the pisscutter position filled and we need that cap space to fill with the Donskois Connollys Burakovsky like players but hes a good option for a team that needs high end talent

    Sorry, I just can’t agree with the premise. Points per game and “was on pace for” and leading the team only means so much. We now have 5 years where only once at the end of the season can his team say he was worth his $6M.

    Its now trending to be once out of six.

    Sure, there are reasons every season but, at the end of the day, when its 5 (or 6 years),…….

    Bah – lots of players on shitty teams with elite production – another excuse for the fact that he simply hasn’t been worth his existing contract in 4 on the last 5 years.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Broberg will certainly be a case to follow in the math vs eyes scouting debate.

    Nothing jumps off the stats sheet. Neither did Hampus Lindholm’s, I suppose.

    Close to 15 min/game in the SHL as a young 18 year old jumps off the sheet.

    My understanding is, as at a few weeks ago, his possession numbers were near the top of the team’s list as well.

    If one is looking for Broberg to produce points this year to reflect developmental success, I would suggest they will be disapointed but shouldn’t be.

  31. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    What amazes me is some people are shocked that this happens
    This is a lot more common than people think
    I’ve seen surgery attendings berate surgical residents that haven’t slept in 30 hours until they broke down and on multiple occasions
    Some of the old crowd will say it makes you tough
    But it really doesn’t
    It just legitimizes that behavior

  32. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar: Those are nice numbers:

    In the last 5 years, he accumlated the following points:

    2018/19 – 37

    2017/18 – 93

    2016/17 – 53

    2015/16 – 65

    2014/15 – 38

    I am not will to commit large money to a player for his 29-34 age year when the above was his production during his 23-28 age years.

    He’s also trending well below a PPG this year – ya, ya, knee injury but, again, its looking like he’ll be worth elite money once in six years.

    Sometimes you need to look at actual points over the years when talking about paying (assets or cap) for a point producer.

    He has been a 4 yr cycle.
    1 yr top 5-10 off fwd.
    2 yr – of top 60 fwd production due to not playing full seasons.
    1 yr – WTF of missed games.

    I miss Eberle’s years of consistent goal production with RNH more than Hall.

    Points are produced by a player scoring goals.

    IT is easier to win when you are only giving up 2GA in a game.

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think I played the first 3 Leisure Suit Larry’s.

    Used to communicate on BBS boards too.

    Christ I’m old.

    Since today seems to be a look back at music I revisited a video of the tribute to George Harrison featuring Dhani Harrison, Tom Petty, Steve Winwood and Prince among others.
    I’ve tried to post a link to the YouTube video here without success but encourage everyone who values musical genius to find it.

    Whiie My Guitar Gently Weeps….make sure to watch through to the end where Prince drops the mic….pure genius.

  34. northerndancer says:

    Cassandra:
    Moreover, the hockey world knows this is true.There is a reason why coaches have to take things like the respect in sport activity leader course.It is because there is recognition that this is a problem, a problem that goes back in time, which means there is a recognition that it has always been wrong.

    Your attitude provides cover for what does not deserve cover.This has nothing to do with politically correct attitudes and the thought police and times changing.

    I was born in the seventies and grew up in the eighties.It is simply not true that there was ever a time that this would have been accepted as normal by well adjusted people.

    Thank you for your thoughts on this.

  35. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorry, I just can’t agree with the premise.Points per game and “was on pace for” and leading the team only means so much.We now have 5 years where only once at the end of the season can his team say he was worth his $6M.

    Its now trending to be once out of six.

    Sure, there are reasons every season but, at the end of the day, when its 5 (or 6 years),…….

    Bah – lots of players on shitty teams with elite production – another excuse for the fact that he simply hasn’t been worth his existing contract in 4 on the last 5 years.

    That is absolutely ridiculous. We all know you don’t like the player but cmon!! Only once was worth 6 mil? I don’t think 6 mil gets you what you think it does

    Mackinnon was a 50 point player until Rantanen broke out and the team improved
    I think it’s very understated that’s it’s hard to put up points with no help
    Ryan Strome is a good example of this
    Did he learn how to play all of a sudden or is the difference between playing with Panarin vs Ahlers

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: Khaira-Draisaitl-Gagner
    Neal-McDavid-Archibald

    Something something glass houses something.

    Of course, the Oilers have two injuries in their top six and the flames none.

    Of course, none of those listed above are anywhere near no goals in 55 games and the two with Drai as above 1.6 P/60 in the last month (one above 2.1 P/6).

  37. Reja says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    What amazes me is some people are shocked that this happens
    This is a lot more common than people think
    I’ve seen surgery attendings berate surgical residents that haven’t slept in 30 hours until they broke down and on multiple occasions
    Some of the old crowd will say it makes you tough
    But it really doesn’t
    It just legitimizes that behavior

    Wholly smokes are we in for a world of hurt. I feel sorry for the younger generation where whining about everything 24/7 will get you further ahead than hard work and learning the ropes. Everybody can’t be the boss 15 minutes into their new job.

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Hockey Project: I loved local BBS’s, especially if they downloaded newsgroups. The good old days of exchanging ideas on rec.sport.hockey, even if it *was* a day or two old and took some time to get discussions going back and forth.

    That wasn’t a problem anyway, since text downloaded a character at a time, and you would read along as it came.

    It’s in our blood.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Konovalov stops 26 of 28 in a 3-2 win!

  40. Bank Shot says:

    Reja: Wholly smokes are we in for a world of hurt. I feel sorry for the younger generation where whining about everything 24/7 will get you further ahead than hard work and learning the ropes. Everybody can’t be the boss 15 minutes into their new job.

    I can’t believe I can’t smoke on the plane anymore. Bunch of softies!

  41. Bank Shot says:

    PS, if the Oilers were to acquire another top end forward, I think that forward needs to be from the O’Reilly/Hossa tree rather than a player from the Hall aisle.

    His offence is great, but we’ve got a guy that does it better. The Oilers could use another guy that gets points, but also focuses on the other parts of the game.

  42. Harpers Hair says:

    Bank Shot: I can’t believe I can’t smoke on the plane anymore. Bunch of softies!

    Or hospital rooms.

  43. Ice Sage says:

    Bank Shot,

    Try Air Kazakstan

    #80’sforever

  44. John Chambers says:

    Harpers Hair: Since today seems to be a look back at music I revisited a video of the tribute to George Harrison featuring Dhani Harrison, Tom Petty, Steve Winwood and Prince among others.
    I’ve tried to post a link to the YouTube video here without success but encourage everyone who values musical genius to find it.

    Whiie My Guitar Gently Weeps….make sure to watch through to the end where Prince drops the mic….pure genius.

    I’ve watched it and it’s incredible.

    The stage is already crowded with legends and then Prince steps in and shreds.

  45. Lowetide says:

    New for the Athletic: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved, plus a giant dollop of worry about Matt Benning.

    https://theathletic.com/1430363/2019/12/03/lowetide-analyzing-the-oilers-latest-roster-shuffle-and-the-defencemen-involved/

  46. John Chambers says:

    Bank Shot:
    PS, if the Oilers were to acquire another top end forward, I think that forward needs to be from the O’Reilly/Hossa tree rather than a player from the Hall aisle.

    His offence is great, but we’ve got a guy that does it better. The Oilers could use another guy that gets points, but also focuses on the other parts of the game.

    100%

    I am a huge Taylor Hall fan but “game management” isn’t his strong suit.

    Perhaps he’d be better at it if his teams played with the lead more.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nilsson is starting for Ottawa tonight which likely means that recent call-up Hogberg gets the start tomorrow (although far from official and Markstrom just started both ends of a back to back – and got out-tender in game 2).

  48. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Are we able to directly compare offensive boxcars as between the Q and WHL?

    I think the gap has narrowed but I think the Q remains a bit of an “easier league” offensively?

    Could be wrong and open to be corrected.

    “WHL, OHL, and QMJHL scoring rates (team G/GP here) were simlar a few years ago. Since then, the OHL has trended up, the WHL down, and the QMJHL the same.

    This has a lot of implications in evaluting prospects stats in these leagues. If we assume the actual strength of the leagues is equal across all three and the quality hasn’t changed over these years, then we can say that the scoring rates are the only thing that has changed.

    This means 1.00 P/GP for a prospect across the 3 leagues was roughly equal in 2016-17. Now 1.00 OHL P/GP is equal to just 0.82 in the WHL and 0.89 in the QMJHL. This is a big disparity that didn’t exist a few short years ago. The OHL has become relatively inflated. For example, Rossi would probably have around 1.91 P/GP in the WHL and 2.06 in the QMJHL rather than his current 2.33 in the OHL.”

    From Ben Misfeldt, a prospect writer on twitter today.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Reja: Wholly smokes are we in for a world of hurt. I feel sorry for the younger generation where whining about everything 24/7 will get you further ahead than hard work and learning the ropes. Everybody can’t be the boss 15 minutes into their new job.

    Unfortunately that line of thinking is a huge part of the problem that is pervasive in this world
    The whole I went through it and so should you.
    So let me tell you I went through it and I would never do that to one of my students or residents because I know how not only unproductive but destructive it is
    The goal of each generation should be to make the world a better place
    But unfortunately there’s still people out there that think spanking their kids is a good punishment for them because they went through it and they came out ok even though it is the worst way to punish your kids and all major child development specialists highly condemn the practice

  50. Reja says:

    Bank Shot: I can’t believe I can’t smoke on the plane anymore. Bunch of softies!

    I have a good sense of humour because I’m not sensitive but this has nothing to do with the topic on hand. I could be wrong but it sounds like you’ve had limited access around the elites which includes hockey players. It’s a whole different game when you have money coming out of your ears grasshopper.

  51. Harpers Hair says:

    John Chambers: I’ve watched it and it’s incredible.

    The stage is already crowded with legends and then Prince steps in and shreds.

    There’s a back story too.

    Harrison’s wife didn’t want Prince included because he didn’t know George but Dhani convinced her to let him play.

    Prince admitted he didn’t know the song but went ahead and played.

    6 minutes of pure genius.

  52. GMB3 says:

    You can infer many things from that. Maybe there are just more offensively talented players in the O, but I think it’s worth noting when you try and draw conclusions across the leagues.

  53. Wilde says:

    IIRC nobody on stage was particularly thrilled with Prince after that, lol

  54. jtblack says:

    i understand the “Bring Hall Home” gets extra play on an Oilers blog ..

    my question is, if the Oilers were going to look at that kind of a deal, is Hall the Best Target?

    Given Production, Age, $$, history?

    MIkael Granlund? Chris Krieder? Should Edmonton look at them? I understand they are not piss cutters like Hall, but they also can be had for less assets and / or less $$, allowing Edm to sign / keep other players …

  55. GMB3 says:

    Cassandra: The problem is that it wasn’t actually a different world then.Those players hated it and they talked about it and nobody listened.

    O’Sullivan wrote his book four years ago about Crawford and no one listened to him.He wrote the book because he was damaged by the hockey culture.It wasn’t ok then.It was never ok.

    Commodore has been talking about Babcock for years and he was ignored.Chelios, Modano, all of this was more or less public information and it was public information because the behaviour was abnormal and damaging even then.

    Aliu was first news more than 10 years ago.And we forgot it.

    These are not new stories.They are stories that were swept under the rug.This isn’t about tough coaches, it is about abusive coaches, it is about hazing, and it is about concussions.And there was never a time when this was ok.

    It’s hilarious, Reja thinks he has some sort of deeper look on the inner workings of elite sport so he gets it and no one else does.

    I love listening to Spittin Chiclet’s, because you hear countless examples of former players talking about how fucked up some of the coaches they’ve had were and how hated they were by guys they coached.

  56. GMB3 says:

    jtblack:
    i understand the “Bring Hall Home” gets extra play on an Oilers blog ..

    my question is, if the Oilers were going to look at that kind of a deal, is Hall the Best Target?

    Given Production, Age, $$, history?

    MIkael Granlund?Chris Krieder? Should Edmonton look at them?I understand they are not piss cutters like Hall, but they also can be had for less assets and / or less $$, allowing Edm to sign / keep other players …

    Is Draisaitl a piss cutter? If we could acquire one or two lower end but still proven scoring forwards, can we run two outscoring lines with McDavid and Draisaitl split?

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: That is absolutely ridiculous.We all know you don’t like the player but cmon!! Only once was worth 6 mil?I don’t think 6 mil gets you what you think it does

    Mackinnon was a 50 point player until Rantanen broke out and the team improved
    I think it’s very understated that’s it’s hard to put up points with no help
    Ryan Strome is a good example of this
    Did he learn how to play all of a sudden or is the difference between playing with Panarin vs Ahlers

    Whoa – I don’t like Taylor Hall?

    I’m a big Taylor Hall fan.

    I would love prime top of his game Taylor Hall on this team.

    I’m simply being reasonable about what he’s produced the last number of years and what he’s likely to produce going forward.

    Of course, quality of linemate matters, I won’t disagree there but, at the same time, we are talking about a player that has broken 65 points once in 5 years – 65 points, not 80 points, 65 – once, one time.

    I will stand by my position that he hasn’t been worth his current contract over the aggregate of the last 5 years.

  58. jtblack says:

    how about Holland gets

    Jaro Halak or Robin Lehner as UFA? Koski and one of those 2 would provide excellent goaltending for a couple years …

    I don’t think Smith is that good.

  59. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide:
    New for the Athletic: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved, plus a giant dollop of worry about Matt Benning.

    https://theathletic.com/1430363/2019/12/03/lowetide-analyzing-the-oilers-latest-roster-shuffle-and-the-defencemen-involved/

    I was about 15 rows up from the Oilers net on Sunday night and got a bird’s eye of Matt Benning taking the shot off his bean. I immediately mentioned to my cousin that this guy has the worst luck with taking hard hits and, now, pucks.

    Lucked into some work in San Jose for a week a few years ago when the Oilers were in town and witnessed Evander Kane lay him out with a dirty hit that saw no call and the Sharks score in the seconds later. The same Evander Kane driller him with a dirty hit that had put him out of the lineup for a 5-game stretch this year.

    Matt Benning takes a licking and seems to return a diminished version but builds himself back into the confident and reliable defender we’ve enjoyed seeing.

    Here’s hoping this injury only looks worse than it is.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB,

    Thanks!

  61. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: Unfortunately that line of thinking is a huge part of the problem that is pervasive in this world
    The whole I went through it and so should you.
    So let me tell you I went through it and I would never do that to one of my students or residents because I know how not only unproductive but destructive it is
    The goal of each generation should be to make the world a better place
    But unfortunately there’s still people out there that think spanking their kids is a good punishment for them because they went through it and they came out ok even though it is the worst way to punish your kids and all major child development specialists highly condemn the practice

    All true. One of the things I sometimes hear from coaches or trainers is “you have to explain everything to the younger individuals” and that’s imo a good thing. I was a child at the end of the ‘speak when spoken to’ era of child raising and my parents adapted as I grew up. But explaining, even overexplaining if necessary, can be a good thing. I know it helped my kids to be informed about the reason for a project and the goal. I sometimes wonder if my generation would have had less ‘school of hard knocks’ moments with that kind of mentoring.

  62. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa – I don’t like Taylor Hall?

    I’m a big Taylor Hall fan.

    I would love prime top of his game Taylor Hall on this team.

    I’m simply being reasonable about what he’s produced the last number of years and what he’s likely to produce going forward.

    Of course, quality of linemate matters, I won’t disagree there but, at the same time, we are talking about a player that has broken 65 points once in 5 years – 65 points, not 80 points, 65 – once, one time.

    I will stand by my position that he hasn’t been worth his current contract over the aggregate of the last 5 years.

    How much has his game eroded in the last four years? What does the bell curve look like? When you’re dealing with elite talent, that bell curve crawls along like a snail. Won’t move for love nor money.

  63. Reja says:

    GMB3: It’s hilarious, Reja thinks he has some sort of deeper look on the inner workings of elite sport so he gets it and no one else does.

    I love listening to Spittin Chiclet’s, because you hear countless examples of former players talking about how fucked up some of the coaches they’ve had were and how hated they were by guys they coached.

    It makes me laugh how naive you are nobody want’s to hear how nice their coach was they want the dirt for the ratings even if it’s stretched.

  64. Harpers Hair says:

    Wilde:
    IIRC nobody on stage was particularly thrilled with Prince after that, lol

    Tom Petty was visibly pissed but Dhani loved it.

  65. Side says:

    John Chambers: I was about 15 rows up from the Oilers net on Sunday night and got a bird’s eye of Matt Benning taking the shot off his bean. I immediately mentioned to my cousin that this guy has the worst luck with taking hard hits and, now, pucks.

    Lucked into some work in San Jose for a week a few years ago when the Oilers were in town and witnessed Evander Kane lay him out with a dirty hit that saw no call and the Sharks score in the seconds later. The same Evander Kane driller him with a dirty hit that had put him out of the lineup for a 5-game stretch this year.

    Matt Benning takes a licking and seems to return a diminished version but builds himself back into the confident and reliable defender we’ve enjoyed seeing.

    Here’s hoping this injury only looks worse than it is.

    Jeez. The poor guy even has a bruised face in his hockeydb photo: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=139599

  66. yeraslob says:

    Eberle with just his first two goals of the season the other night, although he has been injured this year. Is he a streaky scorer?

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: All true. One of the things I sometimes hear from coaches or trainers is “you have to explain everything to the younger individuals” and that’s imo a good thing. I was a child at the end of the ‘speak when spoken to’ era of child raising and my parents adapted as I grew up. But explaining, even overexplaining if necessary, can be a good thing. I know it helped my kids to be informed about the reason for a project and the goal. I sometimes wonder if my generation would have had less ‘school of hard knocks’ moments with that kind of mentoring.

    Absolutely. And the goal should be how do I make things better for the next generation and not how to keep things the same
    I actually find that the people that complain about the younger generation are the people that have the most trouble effectively communicating with that generation
    Showing a med student or resident multiple times how to do the same thing can get annoying but it’s a lot better than the, see one, do one teach, one era of teaching where one residents error gets propagated. Especially better for the patient

  68. Lowetide says:

    yeraslob:
    Eberle with just his first two goals of the season the other night, although he has been injured this year.Is he a streaky scorer?

    Always.

  69. MoogerFuhger says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Dude, I went to the video on nothing more then the mention of Prince and dear Gord, even my 5-year-old busted out dancing when Prince’s solo started. In his child speak, he said, “I’m a dancing pretty good”, “that was a pretty good music”, and “that is a super fun!” Thank you for the tip! Made my night!

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: How much has his game eroded in the last four years? What does the bell curve look like? When you’re dealing with elite talent, that bell curve crawls along like a snail. Won’t move for love nor money.

    Yup, he’s an elite talent but if, at the end of the last five 82 game seasons, you took a look and asked if Hall was worth $6M that season only one time would the answer be a resounding yes.

    He is an elite talent that has simply not been providing elite production on a season by season basis for years.

    I see so much risk here.

  71. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think I played the first 3 Leisure Suit Larry’s.

    Used to communicate on BBS boards too.

    Christ I’m old.

    Aging in people is like wine, if the cork is in good shape all is well. Seems to me your cork is still just fine.😉

  72. Harpers Hair says:

    MoogerFuhger:
    Harpers Hair,

    Dude, I went to the video on nothing more then the mention of Prince and dear Gord, even my 5-year-old busted out dancing when Prince’s solo started. In his child speak, he said, “I’m a dancing pretty good”, “that was a pretty good music”, and “that is a super fun!”Thank you for the tip! Made my night!

    So happy you were able to expose your young un to genius.

    As time passes it is so easy to forget the truly exceptional talents we have the pleasure and privilege of bearing witness to.

    Prince recorded his first song when he was seven…maybe your little guy will pick up the torch.

  73. MoogerFuhger says:

    Harpers Hair,

    So far so good. He responds to well to the classics. Prince really stole that performance by a country mile though.

  74. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    With all this talk of trading for Hall I still think most posters are missing the big picture.
    So far I am hearing the following concerns.
    1. It would cost too much in assets to acqire him
    This is a legit concern as I am not a big fan of spending significant assets on rental players. If you extend him it becomes a different conversation, but if I’m signing Hall for big money and term, I’m waiting till summer and saving my picks and prospects.

    I don’t spend much on rentals either.Nothing important goes out the door if there is not extension.


    2. Will Hall agree to sign with Oilers moving forward and what will that contract look like?
    I’m guessing the absolute minimum would be 5 years x 8.5 million. My guess is it would be for more term or more money. Or both.

    This is key.

    Since the cap goes up a ton in 21/22 due to the new US deal I wonder if Hall is willing to sign a one year deal and go long in 21/22 when everyone has ~6MM-$8MM more cap the following season?


    3. Is that kind of contract a good idea for the Oilers?
    Maybe, if he stays healthy. If he’s in the lineup he’s a difference maker.

    I’ve been digging into the aging curves of players who score and drive play like Hall and it looks like you can expect close to what he is until 33 (barring injury and watching this year close to see if he continues to recover)

    The decline generally starts at 33, but they usually don’t decline fast until ~35

    His health is the big bogey.


    The thing is none of the above concerns really matter.
    The key question is how do you fit Taylor Hall into the Oilers cap structure next year? The only way I see it happening is a Darnell Nurse trade.
    So my question is, are you willing to trade Nurse to make room for Hall?

    It’s not an either/or proposition.

    Like I said earlier a one year deal takes care of it well.

    EDM has a ton of fat (Russell, Neal…..Larsson kinda but he’s not your first or second choice)

    It can be done and not big issue.

    Do you think Hall agrees to a 1 year contract? And if so, how much?
    Might be more likely if he continues to struggle this year. Makes more sense for him to accept a 1 year “show me” deal.
    Still don’t think it’s likely.
    How about this,
    Neal, JP, Jones/Samarukov, Benson/Yamamoto, 2020 1st to NJ for
    Hall (extended for 7×8.5), 2020 2nd to Edm.
    Which team says no?
    Would you do it if you were Holland?

  75. Harpers Hair says:

    Looks like those pesky no name Coyotes aren’t going to go away as they win in Columbus.
    Time to call ACME?

  76. Side says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Boring thread.

    Lets get this thing cranked up!

    Coach Killer.

    *drops mike and runs for the door*

    I hope Mike isn’t a baby

  77. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think I played the first 3 Leisure Suit Larry’s.

    Used to communicate on BBS boards too.

    Christ I’m old.

    I’m not far behind you.

    I remember in my first year of university connecting to the World Wide Web with a 28.8 Baud? modem. Initially, the only sites you could visit were FTP sites. Then Mozaic was released and it was a Brave New World.

  78. Ryan says:

    who,

    If I were Taylor Hall’s friend…

    I would tell to get himself to Denver.

    Hall in Denver is a fit and story that writes itself.

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I really like the angle that the Oilers dump Larsson to make (some) cap space for Hall. Creativity at its finest.

  80. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Looks like those pesky no name Coyotes aren’t going to go away as they win in Columbus.
    Time to call ACME?

    Dom’s model fades the Yotes. 53% chance of making playoffs.

  81. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan:
    who,

    If I were Taylor Hall’s friend…

    I would tell to get himself to Denver.

    Hall in Denver is a fit and story that writes itself.

    Yep.

    They have the cap space, the trade pieces and are primed for a push.

  82. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: Dom’s model fades the Yotes. 53% chance of making playoffs.

    Yep. But he had them losing tonight.
    That will go up.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Do you think Hall agrees to a 1 year contract? And if so, how much?
    Might be more likely if he continues to struggle this year. Makes more sense for him to accept a 1 year “show me” deal.
    Still don’t think it’s likely.
    How about this,
    Neal, JP, Jones/Samarukov, Benson/Yamamoto, 2020 1st to NJ for
    Hall (extended for 7×8.5), 2020 2nd to Edm.
    Which team says no?
    Would you do it if you were Holland?

    I love Hall but he has been worth $8.5M once over the last 5 years and the other four years were not even close. These were his 23-27 years. He’s trending to not be worth close to $8.5M in a sixth year.

    How many of those 7 year, from the ages of 29-36 do we reasonably expect him to be worth that type of cap hit, even with the cap rising?

    I don’t understand how this type of deal would make this team better over the next 2-7 years.

    Getting rid of Neal’s contract is a nice cherry though.

  84. Bag of Pucks says:

    If people are entitled to not be victims of bullying or abuse, then similarly, people are entitled to due process and not being victims of mob justice and character assassination by keyboard. If not, you’re just arguing for your preferred flavour of vindictiveness.

    Too many people are over simplifying this as social justice=young=progressive=good vs status quo=old=regressive=bad

    Bullying does not make mob justice justifiable. We created due process for a reason. Those control mechanisms have value.

  85. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    ARNH
    BCaggiula
    CMaroon
    DDraisaitl
    EEberle
    FKassian
    GJP
    HChiasson
    ILucic
    JRattie

    I think your Chiasson numbers are wrong. That makes your puzzle much more difficult.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I really like the angle that the Oilers dump Larsson to make (some) cap space for Hall. Creativity at its finest.

    Lol. It’s the old George Carlin line: Get that JUNK out of the way so I can put my STUFF there!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgN5gCuLac

  87. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Looks like those pesky no name Coyotes aren’t going to go away as they win in Columbus.
    Time to call ACME?

    You should have made the bet.

  88. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I love Hall but he has been worth $8.5M once over the last 5 years and the other four years were not even close. These were his 23-27 years.He’s trending to not be worth close to $8.5M in a sixth year.

    How many of those 7 year, from the ages of 29-36 do we reasonably expect him to be worth that type of cap hit, even with the cap rising?

    I don’t understand how this type of deal would make this team better over the next 2-7 years.

    Getting rid of Neal’s contract is a nice cherry though.

    I think the deal makes the Oilers better for the next 3 to 4 years, but it probably stings for the last 3.
    If the Oilers had any impact forwards coming I would say no. But they don’t.
    The best thing the Oilers give up is probably the 2020 1st. Don’t know if that’s enough for NJ to pull the trigger.

  89. Georgexs says:

    Lowetide: How much has his game eroded in the last four years? What does the bell curve look like? When you’re dealing with elite talent, that bell curve crawls along like a snail. Won’t move for love nor money.

    I think you mean the aging curve here.

    Last season was Hall’s 27th year by age. By the end of it, he was a career 0.91 P/GP player. That’s elite. No question at all.

    Here are some players who were drafted in 2000 or later who scored at a comparable rate by the end of their 27th year and the rate at which they scored from that point on (not including this season’s data):

    Player, Career P/GP up to 27th year, P/GP from 28th year

    Crosby, 1.36, 1.15
    Malkin, 1.22, 1.11
    Ovechkin, 1.22, 0.99
    Kane, 1.01, 1.12
    Stamkos, 1.01, 1.20
    Kovalchuk, 1.00, 0.83
    Backstrom, 0.99, 0.95
    Spezza, 1.01, 0.71
    Heatley, 1.07, 0.69
    Getzlaf, 0.94, 0.94
    Tavares, 0.93, 1.07
    Giroux, 0.90, 1.00
    Kopitar, 0.90, 0.87
    Gaborik, 0.90, 0.64
    Benn, 0.89, 0.83
    Toews, 0.87, 0.84
    Staal, 0.89, 0.75
    Semin, 0.87, 0.60
    Stastny, 0.85, 0.71
    Parise, 0.82, 0.76
    Vanek, 0.82, 0.71
    Nash, 0.81, 0.67
    Perry, 0.81, 0.75

    From this, there do appear to be risks in betting on future production from even elite level talent after a certain age. If you think Hall is in the Kovalchuk to Crosby category, then, yeah, go for it. If you think he’s in the next tier, then you should be very, very careful with dollars and term for Hall’s 29+ years.

  90. jtblack says:

    Georgexs: I think you mean the aging curve here.

    Last season was Hall’s 27th year by age. By the end of it, he was a career 0.91 P/GP player. That’s elite. No question at all.

    Here are some players who were drafted in 2000 or later who scored at a comparable rate by the end of their 27th year and the rate at which they scored from that point on (not including this season’s data):

    Player, Career P/GP up to 27th year, P/GP from 28th year

    Crosby, 1.36, 1.15
    Malkin, 1.22, 1.11
    Ovechkin, 1.22, 0.99
    Kane, 1.01, 1.12
    Stamkos, 1.01, 1.20
    Kovalchuk, 1.00, 0.83
    Backstrom, 0.99, 0.95
    Spezza, 1.01, 0.71
    Heatley, 1.07, 0.69
    Getzlaf, 0.94, 0.94
    Tavares, 0.93, 1.07
    Giroux, 0.90, 1.00
    Kopitar, 0.90, 0.87
    Gaborik, 0.90, 0.64
    Benn, 0.89, 0.83
    Toews, 0.87, 0.84
    Staal, 0.89, 0.75
    Semin, 0.87, 0.60
    Stastny, 0.85, 0.71
    Parise, 0.82, 0.76
    Vanek, 0.82, 0.71
    Nash, 0.81, 0.67
    Perry, 0.81, 0.75

    From this, there do appear to be risks in betting on future production from even elite level talent after a certain age. If you think Hall is in the Kovalchuk to Crosby category, then, yeah, go for it. If you think he’s in the next tier, then you should be very, very careful with dollars and term for Hall’s 29+ years.

    not sure how you got the infom AMAZING!!

  91. jp says:

    Georgexs,

    Thanks for the data.

    My scan of the list told me that there’s a small decline on average, with a few pretty big drops in there. Considering the 28+ data (presumably) includes performance beyond age 33 in many cases, I took this as indicating a pretty good outcome overall. Interesting we had such different conclusions (admittedly I only looked at the numbers for 30 seconds).

  92. flyfish1168 says:

    Ryan:
    who,

    If I were Taylor Hall’s friend…

    I would tell to get himself to Denver.

    Hall in Denver is a fit and story that writes itself.

    IF it doesn’t work out in Denver at least Hall can be the lucky charm to win the lottery. 😉

  93. jtblack says:

    Georgexs,

    WOULD LOVE to see exact same info with pre 27 & post 31 …

    May show clearer where the cliff is?

  94. jtblack says:

    Georgexs,

    another quick Analysis.
    of those 25 Great Players, only 3 are higher.

    So as a GM, you know you are buying decline. Trick is.. how much and how soon?

  95. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, he’s an elite talent but if, at the end of the last five 82 game seasons, you took a look and asked if Hall was worth $6M that season only one time would the answer be a resounding yes.

    He is an elite talent that has simply not been providing elite production on a season by season basis for years.

    I see so much risk here.

    +1

  96. jtblack says:

    Georgexs,

    Feel like OP. messaging myself.

    Another takeaway. Although PPG drops off slightly, I am guessing overall game impact is near peak 27 – 30

  97. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer: Absolutely.And the goal should be how do I make things better for the next generation and not how to keep things the same
    I actually find that the people that complain about the younger generation are the people that have the most trouble effectively communicating with that generation
    Showing a med student or resident multiple times how to do the same thing can get annoying but it’s a lot better than the, see one, do one teach, one era of teaching where one residents error gets propagated.Especially better for the patient

    I have always found that it is better to take the time to assure that instructions are understood than to deal with mistakes made when instructions have not been understood.

  98. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    What you’re describing is the need to build a counterhegemony instead of just reinhabiting the current one, which is legitimate, but the application is dangerously wrong.

    Getting mean things said about you on the internet is not in the same stratosphere to being forced to strip naked in front of older peers and get paddled until you don’t flinch anymore.

    It’s highly likely that no perpetrator is going to face anywhere near the amount of harm they inflicted.

    If they did, not only would that be ethically ambiguous, but it would be strategically unadvisable (from someone who is sympathetic to this cause like myself) and in effect just a role reversal, yes.

    Also, I will note that a people’s movement to do anything (in the internet age) seems demonisable by flatly characterising it as runaway internet social justice mobbery. Nothing is going to change without popular pressure, and even if everything happens in the real world there will be reactions to unfolding events online.

    One would need to argue that said change is bad – not that the methods are deontologically forbidden.

  99. Georgexs says:

    jp:
    Georgexs,

    Thanks for the data.

    My scan of the list told me that there’s a small decline on average, with a few pretty big drops in there. Considering the 28+ data (presumably) includes performance beyond age 33 in many cases, I took this as indicating a pretty good outcome overall. Interesting we had such different conclusions (admittedly I only looked at the numbers for 30 seconds).

    I’ll share some more of what I’m seeing.

    Here are the point totals for Hall comps from their 29th year forward (we’d be signing Hall for his 29+ years). I’m going to exclude Kovalchuk up because I don’t think Hall is at that level.

    Player, Pts at 29, Pts at 30, etc.

    Backstrom, 86, 71, 74
    Spezza, 5, 66, 62, 63, 50, 26, 27
    Heatley, 64, 53, 21, 28, 0
    Getzlaf, 70, 63, 73, 61, 48
    Giroux, 102, 85
    Kopitar, 52, 90, 60
    Gaborik, 76, 27, 30, 47, 22, 21, 21
    Benn, 53
    Toews, 52, 81
    Staal, 61, 54, 39, 65, 76, 52
    Semin, 42, 19, 4
    Stastny, 46, 49, 40, 53, 42
    Parise, 56, 62, 53, 42, 24, 61
    Vanek, 68, 52, 41, 48, 56, 36
    Nash, 39, 69, 36, 38, 34
    Perry, 55, 62, 53, 49, 10

    I think we’re talking about paying $8.5M+ for these types of seasons. Tough to pull off in this hockey crazy market. There’d be pressure on Hall if he failed to break, what? 70?

    If we’re being optimistic, Hall could follow in these players’ footsteps:

    Player, Career Pts/GP at 28, Pts at 29, Pts at 30, etc.

    Kessel, 0.77, 70, 92, 82
    Bergeron, 0.75, 55, 68, 53, 63, 79
    Marchand, 0.70, 85, 100
    Pavelski, 0.70, 79, 70, 78, 68, 66, 64
    Wheeler, 0.68, 78, 74, 91, 91

    I think, other than Kessel, these guys were all signed to very favorable contracts for their teams. The number that Hall is going to sign for is going to leave very little room for unexpected value.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georgexs,

    In his last 5 full seasons, he has produced at pretty much that exact rate – 0.91 points per game.

    Of course, in the last 5 full seasons he has averaged 52 points per season.

    Imagine signing the guy for $8.5M (let along the higher amount its likely to be) and he averages 57 points per season?

    Imagine what is reasonable if we take in to account has age in the next 5 years vs. his age in the past 5 years.

  101. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Firstly, my post was in in jest and a joke about Jersey having the flames first round pick and it being 1st overall.

    Secondly, the key here is “while still an elite player” and, well, he’s had an elite season once in the last five years and its currently trending to be one in six.

    Lets say he does sign a massive team friendly deal of 5 X $8.5M, as unlikely as that is, ask yourself how many times in the last 5 seasons he has been worth $8.5M. Your answer will surely be once.

    Now ask yourself how many times he is likely to be worth that in the next 5 years? Shit, even not taking into account 23-28 age vs 29-35 age, the answer is “buyer beware” is it not?

    Took me a while to get back to this so a lot has been discussed already.

    1) Yes it was a joke today, but I recall you stating the position a couple of times previously (I believe).

    2) You’re picking 5 years and omitting the preceding 2 seasons (where both years Hall was essentially injury free, a >1 PPG player and a top 10 scorer in the NHL). Intentionally or not you are literally picking the worst window to look at Hall’s career.

    3) I think he’ll be worth $8.5M on average over the next 5 years. In fact I’d be ecstatic to sign him to $8.5M X 5 years. $11M X 7 yrs is a bit of a different story. But $8.5M, Hell yeah.

    4) The relative goal share that Woodguy posted.

    5) Buyer beware is fair all the same, no question there’s risk.

    OriginalPouzar:

    I will stand by my position that he hasn’t been worth his current contract over the aggregate of the last 5 years.

    As someone said earlier, I don’t think your valuation is reasonable here.

    At $6M Hall is currently tied with 15 other players for the 62nd highest paid forward in the NHL. (that is, 76 NHL forwards make at least $6M currently). I know the deal was richer in the earlier years than it is now, but in that window Hall is:

    #40 in total points
    #25 in Pts/G

    Seems like he covered his contract bet rather easily. Is Nuge not worth his salary either? Cause he’s a fair distance back of Hall based on almost everything aside from contract.

  102. Munny says:

    Georgexs,

    Are you able to do this for just the next 5 years?

    Looking over the list, to my eye, the better skaters on the whole did better.

    Also the younger the better… less of the aging curve in effect, hence my request above.

    Couple who did poorly, Gaborik and Semin were affected by injury.

    You can see the effect of more talented linemates on Tavares.

  103. jp says:

    Ryan: Dom’s model fades the Yotes. 53% chance of making playoffs.

    Harpers Hair: Yep. But he had them losing tonight.
    That will go up.

    Strength of remaining schedule is contributing too I guess.

    Pacific Division teams (and rank among all NHL teams – hardest to easiest)
    Ducks 4th
    Flames 9th
    Coyotes 19th
    Canucks 21st
    Kings 24th
    Knights 26th
    Oilers 28th
    Sharks 30th

    The schedule seems to favour the Oilers staying where they are while Vegas and SJ solidify themselves
    going forward.

    http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php

  104. pts2pndr says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    If people are entitled to not be victims of bullying or abuse, then similarly, people are entitled to due process and not being victims of mob justice and character assassination by keyboard. If not, you’re just arguing for your preferred flavour of vindictiveness.

    Too many people are over simplifying this as social justice=young=progressive=good vs status quo=old=regressive=bad

    Bullying does not make mob justice justifiable. We created due process for a reason. Those control mechanisms have value.

    You are correct re due process. If more people are made aware of what is and isn’t acceptable the less likely abuse will happen. Most of the time it only takes one person to speak up and say “that is not acceptable”.

  105. geowal says:

    Harpers Hair: Since today seems to be a look back at music I revisited a video of the tribute to George Harrison featuring Dhani Harrison, Tom Petty, Steve Winwood and Prince among others.
    I’ve tried to post a link to the YouTube video here without success but encourage everyone who values musical genius to find it.

    Whiie My Guitar Gently Weeps….make sure to watch through to the end where Prince drops the mic….pure genius.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6SFNW5F8K9Y

    Think that’s the one.

  106. Munny says:

    Hockey, gents, let’s not forget.

  107. v4ance says:

    I feel that too many are against the Hall trade because they have the mindset of a rebuild. In the rebuild phase, we hoard picks and prospects until we are a team in contention. We’ve been wandering in the darkness of being a lottery team, we’ve forgotten what it’s like to behave like a contender.

    A team in contention can and SHOULD expend assets to build the best contender possible. Despite most people’s pre-season prognostications (including my own) the Oilers have overachieved and are currently sitting in top spot in the Pacific. For the most part, the success is built on our top line, a solid goalie tandem and special teams. The powerplays will dry up in the playoffs so then the keys to success will only be the goaltending and McDavid-Draisaitl.

    My biggest fear is that WHEN we make it to the playoffs, the opposing team will simply blanket McDavid and win by outscoring our bottom 3 lines. Having Hall makes that an untenable strategy.

    With Hall we can run Hall-RNH or Hall Drai with McD-Drai or McD-RNH and have two outscoring “1st lines”. I believe Hall’s true ability has been suppressed due to a lack of elite teammates in New Jersey and his intermittent injuries. I believe in Edmonton, he would be part of a devastating one-two punch with McDavid.

    We always moan about not being able to attract top tier free agents who don’t want to be in Edmonton for various reasons. Hall loved it in Edmonton and is an elite talent who is actually available. If we acquired a Chris Kreider or a Mike Hoffman, we have no clue if they would want to stay or if they would bolt at the first opportunity. I think we would have a strong chance to re-sign Hall at a reasonable deal with his stated preference of trying to win cups as his main motivation.

    I feel that a Hall acquistion would be like a Kahwi Leonard type trade. He has injury issues but getting him on the team would be the difference between just making the playoffs versus being a real Stanley Cup contender. McDavid and Draisaitl are having historic seasons which they will probably not repeat many more times. Not giving them the maximum help in going for cups during their prime periods of production would be a disservice to them and to the team and to the long suffering fans.

    In 2016, goaltending and McDavid-Draisaitl got us to the second round but that wasn’t enough to go any further. I hope we don’t make that same mistake twice.

  108. Dee Dee says:

    It will be interesting to see where Hall ends up signing, I don’t think there are really very many teams that can afford him.

    Blue Jackets, Islanders, Senators, Devils, Kings, Canadiens can afford him without dumping Salary.

    If he wants to win then you are left with the Blue Jackets and the Islanders?

    Teams that COULD afford him would have to wedge him into set Rosters.

    The Bruins for example are paying Marchand and Pastrnak only $6 Million, are they going to pay Hall more? I doubt it.

    Flames are hosed next year. They have 5 defenders to resign, lots of bad contracts.

    Oilers have $24ish Million cap space next year and have to sign 8 forwards (only 6 under contract) and 4 defenders including Bear and Nurse. That’s awful math.

    He could hope to get traded to a contender at the Deadline, but he could end up going to Ottawa for all he knows.

  109. Numenius says:

    jp:
    Strength of remaining schedule is contributing too I guess.

    Pacific Division teams (and rank among all NHL teams – hardest to easiest)
    Ducks 4th
    Flames 9th
    Coyotes 19th
    Canucks 21st
    Kings 24th
    Knights 26th
    Oilers 28th
    Sharks 30th

    The schedule seems to favour the Oilers staying where they are while Vegas and SJ solidify themselves
    going forward.

    http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php

    Are you sure you have the data right? I think you’re looking at the strength of schedule already played. Looking at the link, the strength of schedule going forward, from hardest to easiest is:

    4. Sharks
    14. Oilers
    16. Knights
    18. Coyotes

    So the Sharks have the most difficult future schedule, the Oilers and Knights are about in the middle, and the Coyotes have it a little easier (but not much).

    That bodes well enough for the OIlers and Knights, and a bit better for the Coyotes, but not so well for the Sharks.

  110. jp says:

    Numenius,

    That would be correct. Facepalm.

  111. jp says:

    Georgexs: I’ll share some more of what I’m seeing.

    Here are the point totals for Hall comps from their 29th year forward (we’d be signing Hall for his 29+ years). I’m going to exclude Kovalchuk up because I don’t think Hall is at that level.

    Player, Pts at 29, Pts at 30, etc.

    Backstrom, 86, 71, 74
    Spezza, 5, 66, 62, 63, 50, 26, 27
    Heatley, 64, 53, 21, 28, 0
    Getzlaf, 70, 63, 73, 61, 48
    Giroux, 102, 85
    Kopitar, 52, 90, 60
    Gaborik, 76, 27, 30, 47, 22, 21, 21
    Benn, 53
    Toews, 52, 81
    Staal, 61, 54, 39, 65, 76, 52
    Semin, 42, 19, 4
    Stastny, 46, 49, 40, 53, 42
    Parise, 56, 62, 53, 42, 24, 61
    Vanek, 68, 52, 41, 48, 56, 36
    Nash, 39, 69, 36, 38, 34
    Perry, 55, 62, 53, 49, 10

    I think we’re talking about paying $8.5M+ for these types of seasons. Tough to pull off in this hockey crazy market. There’d be pressure on Hall if he failed to break, what? 70?

    If we’re being optimistic, Hall could follow in these players’ footsteps:

    Player, Career Pts/GP at 28, Pts at 29, Pts at 30, etc.

    Kessel, 0.77, 70, 92, 82
    Bergeron, 0.75, 55, 68, 53, 63, 79
    Marchand, 0.70, 85, 100
    Pavelski, 0.70, 79, 70, 78, 68, 66, 64
    Wheeler, 0.68, 78, 74, 91, 91

    I think, other than Kessel, these guys were all signed to very favorable contracts for their teams. The number that Hall is going to sign for is going to leave very little room for unexpected value.

    Yeah when you put it into actual points it gives you (me) some pause. Though this also obscures the P/G numbers you posted earlier a bit.

    There’s no question there’s a drop off, on average. And there’s no question there’s risk in Hall’s case (and all UFA deals really).

    To compare some apples to apples though – total points in the 3 seasons before and after age 28 for some of the guys you show above:

    Backstrom, 79, 78, 70 / 86, 71, 74
    Spezza, 57, 57, 84 / 5, 66, 62
    Heatley, 82, 72, 82 / 64, 53, 21
    Getzlaf, 57, 49, 87 / 70, 63, 73
    Giroux, 73, 67, 58 / 102, 85
    Kopitar, 70, 64, 74 / 52, 90, 60

    I’ll stop there. Maybe the rest of the list shows something different. But this doesn’t look as scary as the raw point totals without the context of what happened before age 28.

    Back to the original list of P/GP you posted. The group averages of <27 and <28:

    28 0.86 P/GP or 71Pts/82 GP

    And again, in some cases the “after” data would I think include the tails of players careers well out. The drop-off is definitely there but it’s not precipitous.

  112. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wilde,

    Like most, you’ve made an eloquent argument for vigilantism. Nothing more. Nothing less.

  113. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wilde:
    Bag of Pucks,

    What you’re describing is the need to build a counterhegemony instead of just reinhabiting the current one, which is legitimate, but the application is dangerously wrong.

    Getting mean things said about you on the internet is not in the same stratosphere to being forced to strip naked in front of older peers and get paddled until you don’t flinch anymore.

    It’s highly likely that no perpetrator is going to face anywhere near the amount of harm they inflicted.

    If they did, not only would that be ethically ambiguous, but it would be strategically unadvisable (from someone who is sympathetic to this cause like myself) and in effect just a role reversal, yes.

    Also, I will note that a people’s movement to do anything (in the internet age) seems demonisable by flatly characterising it as runaway internet social justice mobbery. Nothing is going to change without popular pressure, and even if everything happens in the real world there will be reactions to unfolding events online.

    One would need to argue that said change is bad – not that the methods are deontologically forbidden.

    Btw, the bias in the rhetoric here couldn’t be more obvious.

    3 head coaches with abuse allegations in a week is a hegemony!

    Meanwhile, people losing their jobs and having their reputations smeared is “mean things said about you on the internet.”

    That’s some Fox news calibre editorializing.

  114. jp says:

    Georgexs:
    I think we’re talking about paying $8.5M+ for these types of seasons. Tough to pull off in this hockey crazy market. There’d be pressure on Hall if he failed to break, what? 70?

    OriginalPouzar:
    Georgexs,

    magine signing the guy for $8.5M (let along the higher amount its likely to be) and he averages 57 points per season?

    What does $8.5M buy you these days?

    I’ll look at the 3 full seasons leading up to recent UFA signings (or UFA age extensions).

    For reference, Hall has scored 1.01 P/GP and averaged 61 TP (2016-17 through 2018-19)

    Brayden Schenn $6.5M 0.77, 60
    Artemi Panarin $11.6M 1.00, 81
    Matt Duchesne $8M 0.73, 57
    Joe Pavelski $7M 0.83 66 (already age 34!)
    Anders Lee $7M 0.67 55
    Kevin Hayes $7.14 0.66 49
    Jeff Skinner $9M 0.72 58
    Brock Nelson $6M 0.54 44
    Mark Stone $9.5M 0.92 63

    Tyler Seguin $9.85M 0.94 74
    Max Pacioretty $7M 0.74 63
    Blake Wheeler $8.25 0.99 81 (already age 32!)
    Nikita Kucherov $9.5M 1.09 84
    John Tavares $11M 0.94 73
    James van Riemsdyk $7M 0.71 48
    Logan Couture $8M 0.73 50
    Evander Kane $7M 0.62 44

    I dunno. Even if you look at straight points (which I think is wildly unfair to Hall) then $8.5M seems like fair market value. If you look at P/GP, well he’s ahead of the guys making $11M.

    Also, would it be fair to say that the elites (non-McDavid/Crosby division) aren’t quite a elite as we think they are?

  115. Georgexs says:

    jp: Yeah when you put into actual points it gives you (me) some pause. Though this also obscures the P/G numbers you posted earlier a bit.

    There’s no question there’s a drop off, on average. And there’s no question there’s risk in Hall’s case (and all UFA deals really).

    To compare some apples to apples though – total points in 3 seasons before and after age 28 for some of the guys you show above:

    Backstrom, 79, 78, 70 / 86, 71, 74
    Spezza, 57, 57, 84 / 5, 66, 62
    Heatley, 82, 72, 82 / 64, 53, 21
    Getzlaf, 57, 49, 87 / 70, 63, 73
    Giroux, 73, 67, 58 / 102, 85
    Kopitar, 70, 64, 74 / 52, 90, 60

    I’ll stop there. Maybe the rest of the list shows something different. But this doesn’t look as scary as the raw points without what happened before.

    Back to the original list of P/GP you posted. The average of group up to 27 was 0.96. Age 28+ was 0.86. That translates to 79Pts/82 GP vs 71Pts/82 GP. And again, in some cases the “after” data would I think include the tails of players careers well out. The drop-off is definitely there but it’s not precipitous.

    The original question was: what can we expect from Hall-level scoring talent when Hall-level scoring talent turns a certain age?

    You’ve said you’d be ecstatic to sign Hall for 5 x $8.5M for his UFA contract, which would begin when he turns 29.

    There were 71 29+ seasons in the points totals I shared for players with comparable scoring rates to Hall, elite forwards up to their 28th year.

    How many of those 71 seasons produced 70+ points? I count 11. I count 25 60+ point seasons.

    Rates don’t always translate. Games played is another variable. You can see above how it eats away at projections based on rates, even for elite players.

    Scoring is going up overall. Let’s say 60 points in the historical data will translate to 70+ in the future. Cool. But we’re still seeing 65% of 29+ seasons in the historical data not reaching 60 points.

    Why pay $8.5M a year to roll those dice?

    I should mention that anything north of 50 was around top 3F production last season. So, yeah, if Hall is scoring north of 50 from the second line for the duration of the contract, we’re going to have a significantly stronger second line. Again, is that worth $8.5M over 5 years?

    I’m not entirely sure, but I’m leaning to no. You’d be paying Hall what you’re paying Drai. And Drai might lap Hall in some of those 5 seasons. That doesn’t sound right…

  116. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks: Btw, the bias in the rhetoric here couldn’t be more obvious.

    3 head coaches with abuse allegations in a week is a hegemony!

    Meanwhile, people losing their jobs and having their reputations smeared is “mean things said about you on the internet.”

    That’s some Fox news calibre editorializing.

    You’re out of order! You’re out of order! The whole trial is out of order! They’re out of order!

  117. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I don’t keep up with all the new music like some of you kids, been digging into my old vinyl collection quite a bit since I got my new turntable & a new office to play it in, & I am by nature a radio guy. But these last three months I’ve been spiralling in to the new Tool album Fear Inoculum like a big ol’ Archimedes screw. As Glovjuice pointed out in early days after its release, Pneuma is a fucking masterpiece (or words to that effect!) which puts it a nose in front of the other 5 epic tiunes of >10 minutes duration.

    i’ve been frequently listening to that albuuuum on my daily walks, which for a while there morphed from the standard target time of one hour to 86 minutes & 44 seconds! This thing is easily the length of an old double album like Tommy or The Wall or The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway. Gets my blood going & my pace up & about 1 kilometre under my boots for each of those ten-minute tracks.

    I’m more a prog rock fan than a metal head. Thus my affinity for 10+ minute epics. Tool is definitively prog metal, with an exceptionally high degree of complexity, creativity/inventiveness, & musical virtuosity. To my ears a direct descendant of his royal highness King Crimson. 21st Century Schizoid Music.

  118. Reja says:

    jp:
    Strength of remaining schedule is contributing too I guess.

    Pacific Division teams (and rank among all NHL teams – hardest to easiest)
    Ducks 4th
    Flames 9th
    Coyotes 19th
    Canucks 21st
    Kings 24th
    Knights 26th
    Oilers 28th
    Sharks 30th

    The schedule seems to favour the Oilers staying where they are while Vegas and SJ solidify themselves
    going forward.

    http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php

    If anybody thinks Leon, Connor and company aren’t going to drag my beloved Oiler team into the playoffs let the betting wickets open and the standard 2-1 odds are applied when you’re trying to piss in someone’s front living room.

  119. Georgexs says:

    jp:
    What does $8.5M buy you these days?

    I’ll look at the 3 full seasons leading up to recent UFA signings (or UFA age extensions).

    For reference, Hall has scored 1.01 P/GP and averaged 61 TP (2016-17 through 2018-19)

    Brayden Schenn $6.5M 0.77, 60
    Artemi Panarin $11.6M 1.00, 81
    Matt Duchesne $8M 0.73, 57
    Joe Pavelski $7M 0.83 66 (already age 34!)
    Anders Lee $7M 0.67 55
    Kevin Hayes $7.14 0.66 49
    Jeff Skinner $9M 0.72 58
    Brock Nelson $6M 0.54 44
    Mark Stone $9.5M 0.92 63

    Tyler Seguin $9.85M 0.94 74
    Max Pacioretty $7M 0.74 63
    Blake Wheeler $8.25 0.99 81 (already age 32!)
    Nikita Kucherov $9.5M 1.09 84
    John Tavares $11M 0.94 73
    James van Riemsdyk $7M 0.71 48
    Logan Couture $8M 0.73 50
    Evander Kane $7M 0.62 44

    I dunno. Even if you look at straight points (which I think is wildly unfair to Hall) then $8.5M seems like fair market value. If you look at P/GP, well he’s ahead of the guys making $11M.

    Also, would it be fair to say that the elites (non-McDavid/Crosby division) aren’t quite a elite as we think they are?

    Points from elite UFA contracts are relatively expensive on a $/point basis. Cap Friendly paints a not so pretty picture. Those contracts carry the greatest risk and offer the least flexibility. We just miraculously got out from under one of those.

    I see why the idea appeals. It would be nice to have a do-over of the 15-16 season and following off season, with a different HC and GM. It’s a shame.

  120. kgo says:

    Anyone else wonder if Jesse had a MeToo moment he’s keeping quiet?

  121. Reja says:

    Glenn Anderson, Mark Messier and Larry Hagman scored 100 goals and 119 assists in a 80 game schedule while missing a combined 32 games in 1980-81. I loved that line they were famous for the skate behind the net and then reverse it back to usually Messier for the easy peezy goal. Oilers lead the Division, our special teams are crackerjack, we have the Number 1 and 2 scorers in the league, we’ve been hit with the injury bug but our D is one of the deepest in the league. Who would have thought that going back to the Petry days. If we can squeak out 3-4 on the home stand then we’re styling.

  122. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    There’s a ton of misfiring here that I want to get out of the way before I move on to a broader point that’s actually worth it because just the former bit (misfiring) wouldn’t be worth typing up a reply for by itself.

    1) I’m sorry man, the point on hegemony/counterhegemony is a complete non-starter. I can’t tell what you’re trying to say or if that’s the word you’re looking for. The only way I can make that sentence work is if you think that it’s a synonym for some kind of ‘happening’.

    2) Hold up; you specifically were talking about people on the internet:

    Bag of Pucks: If people are entitled to not be victims of bullying or abuse, then similarly, people are entitled to due process and not being victims of mob justice and character assassination by keyboard. If not, you’re just arguing for your preferred flavour of vindictiveness.

    You made the comparison here and I (in my opinion) invalidated it. I made no comparison at all, let alone the one that you say I did.

    To recount, and rephrase, you made (what I believe to be) a lazy comparison between the content of the allegations (serial abuse in a position of power with the enablement of an even higher power) and “character assassination by keyboard”.

    However, in addition to that, I do not believe that early retirement and a shift in reputation for any of the gentlemen involved constitutes anything close to long-term emotional and physical abuse.

    I generally don’t like to see anyone fired, but I think there’d be much less uproar if this happened to a player instead. Most people seem to see themselves in the coach or the GM and are very eager to see everyone be very charitable to them. Maybe I’m wrong.

    I’ll move on after one more thing:

    Bag of Pucks: That’s some Fox news calibre editorializing.

    Maybe you have a higher opinion on Fox News than I do, but if we’re of the same mind on them then if I ever tossed an equivalent insult in your direction you’d be off about how no one would ever say that to you in person. Just sayin’.

    Bag of Pucks:
    Like most, you’ve made an eloquent argument for vigilantism. Nothing more. Nothing less.

    This is the main thing I wanted to get to – the unconditionality with which you (and many others) seem to condemn even the thought of any social movement.

    Once again, rephrased as a question: by your standards, is there a social change that’s happened in the past or could happen in the future that wouldn’t be hit by the “mob justice” critique that you have on a hair trigger? Is there any social change that is good and not “vigilantism”?

    I’m going to take for granted that everyone reading this (including yourself) doesn’t approve of the hazing in junior hockey and the use of racial slurs, kicking and emotional abuse contained in the allegations that have been made against hockey culture more broadly.

    If you do approve of it, you should just be arguing that /nothing/ should happen to the perpetrators. Your objection shouldn’t be strategic; that this “mob justice” might go too far. It’d be that justice is nothing happening.

    The only other option is if you think it’s already gone too far, which loops back to the point that your comparison is then necessarily a comparison between the abuses and being fired for them.

  123. hunter1909 says:

    Reja:
    Glenn Anderson, Mark Messier and Larry Hagman scored 100 goals and 119 assists in a 80 game schedule while missing a combined 32 games in 1980-81. I loved that line they were famous for the skate behind the net and then reverse it back to usually Messier for the easy peezy goal. Oilers lead the Division,our special teams are crackerjack, we have the Number 1 and 2 scorers in the league, we’ve been hit with the injury bug but our D is one of the deepest in the league. Who would have thought that going back to the Petry days. If we can squeak out 3-4 on the home stand then we’re styling.

    Even more incredible is how Larry managed to star in both “I Dream of Jeannie” prior to suiting up for the Oilers, and then “Dallas” – presumably after his time spent on the Messier/Anderson line.

  124. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Looks like those pesky no name Coyotes aren’t going to go away as they win in Columbus.
    Time to call ACME?

    I don’t know if Acme does large vermin, but I’ll give you $2 per tail.

  125. Professor Q says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Broberg will certainly be a case to follow in the math vs eyes scouting debate.

    Nothing jumps off the stats sheet. Neither did Hampus Lindholm’s, I suppose.

    And, he’s still only 17, right?

    Give him some time. Revisit in 2 years, see how he then starts in the AHL, then give him a few more there.

  126. SwedishPoster says:

    Broberg made the swedish WJC team, not surprising but you never know with swedish NT coaches. They always make some head scratching decisions.

    This time it’s that Victor Söderström is only in if one of Boqvist or Sandin aren’t realeased by their NHL clubs. Instead they bring Adam Ginning who isn’t very good, has been loaned out by his SHL team to Allsvenskan where he’s been iffy as well, he’s also been clearly outplayed on his club by Simon Lundmark who didn’t(and shouldn’t due to the talent available) make the team.
    They also made some weird calls on forwards. It often feels like the WJCs is treated like a graduation party for the age group, in this case the 00s, sprinkled with stars from the younger groups like Broberg from the 01s and Holtz&Raymond from the 02s and not the best group of players. Imo the WJCs has grown past that and the U18s fills the graduation role but I’m obviously not in charge( of anything really).

  127. drglen says:

    hunter1909: Even more incredible is how Larry managed to star in both “I Dream of Jeannie” prior to suiting up for the Oilers, and then “Dallas” – presumably after his time spent on the Messier/Anderson line.

    lol

    Larry Hagman… ha ha.. that makes my morning!

  128. stephen sheps says:

    Yeti: Would something like this band (Bent Knee) appeal to your wilder side, or is it too far on the quirky side of town?
    https://youtu.be/Q63OhjXmjw4

    I see the appeal and will need to spend more time with this artist. great voice, interesting production, don’t care for the drum sound on this particular track though. When it comes to production, the littlest things can throw me off for a while, but I won’t give up on it until I know for sure how I feel (i,e, the parquet courts record from last year, Wide Awake! – I hate Danger Mouse behind the board and his production nearly wrecked that album for me, but the songs were too good to give up on and now it’s probably my 2nd favourite album of theirs behind Light Up Gold).

    Cassandra: Strand of Oaks — Eraserland

    This will also be inside my top 10. Forever Chords is a gut punch, Jason Isbell’s cameo on Moon Landing reminds me that he’s almost a better side-man than out in front (and he’s probably my artist of the decade if I’m being honest with myself), Weird Ways sounds like a long-lost Oasis song in the best possible way (the mid-range vocals in the chorus are pure Liam), Fantastic record.

  129. drglen says:

    Taylor Hall, lets move on. Even if it were possible money wise, which it isn’t, let’s stop making the mistake of paying big money for a long contract on the downward tradjectory of a players career. Hall is arguably in his prime, but, we can’t afford these types of mistakes. I’m not even sure Toronto getting Tavares is smart at the end of the day.

    I was worried about Kassian , such speed and fearlessness in those corners.. bad back.. this is very worrysome.

    Poor Nuge… is it just me, or does he tend to get injured quite a bit? We miss him.

    The thing keeping us afloat right now is really the surprisingly great play of Koskinen.

    What about having a look at Lagesson in this pre-chrismas window.?

    And then there is JP. I kind of wish he was traded prior to this deadline, as I am afraid people will start to lose interest and his value will go down, or at least settle clearly at his somewhat lower than expected value. I’m not sure he is all that tradeable, and calling it 60/40 that he actually skates for the oilers next season.

    San Jose is surging, but I think they are inflated. It’s a long season and they’ve come alive, but I project that they are going to settle back down to third or WC. Good veteran team but injuries will come. On the other hand they do have that ‘veteran metal’ .. but I still think they will sink.

    Oilers will start to move up, the better Haas and Nygard play, the better the oilers fare as well. Gagner has filled in well, but might this be an opportunity to have a look at a Benson or Yamo, even Marody?

  130. Lowetide says:

    Sheps: I don’t know if it was you, but if it was thanks so much for recommending Jason Isbell and the Danko/Manuel song. Beautiful.

  131. frjohnk says:

    drglen: Taylor Hall, lets move on

    you must be new here

  132. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    it sounds like something I’d recommend, but I don’t want to take credit if it was not in fact me.

    Regardless, I’m thrilled that you like it. He’s somehow managed to get even better as a solo artist than he ever was with the Drive-By Truckers, and considering he wrote Danko/Manuel (along with Outfit and Decoration Day) when he was with them (and only 22 years old at the time), that’s saying something.

    If I were to recommend any 3 songs from his solo output, I’d go with Elephant (from Southeastern), Alabama Pines (from Here We Rest or Live From Alabama – which is an excellent live release), and Something More than Free (which is the title track from his 2015 release). Yes I acknowledge all 3 songs are a bit on the slower side but holy hell are the lyrics ever good.

  133. Sierra says:

    kgo:
    Anyone else wonder if Jesse had a MeToo moment he’s keeping quiet?

    No

  134. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t know if Acme does large vermin, but I’ll give you $2 per tail.

    The thing about ACME and Coyotes is you don’t have to pay ACME to destroy him. Coyote will do the mail order himself. #meepmeep

  135. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wilde,

    I’ve repeatedly said on this topic that advocating for due process is not advocating for doing nothing. It’s advocating for a process that respects the rights of both accused and accuser to be heard and share their sides of the story.

    No offense, your rhetoric is strong on this but your content is weak. Your argument is always the same. You broad brush the accused and inflate the actions of a few to claim systemic abuses (with nothing beyond the anecdotal as evidence for this). With the accused suitably demonized, you then prop up rationales to support vigilantism and the ignoring of a more measured investigative process under the aegis of overdue social change demanding immediate actions.

    Your posts are actually fascinating because they show how the vigilante creates and maintains the justifications to appoint themselves as judge, jury and executioner and then escalates that rationale into action under the belief that if they don’t take justice into their own hands, nothing will be done, nothing will change. Who are you to decide that?

    Imho, your posts also display a youthful tendency to judge human behaviour in black and white archetypes as opposed to the moral shades of grey that most humans traverse. Mike Babcock is not Genghis Khan. Akim Aliu is not Joan of Arc. Both have likely done good deeds. Both have likely made mistakes. Aliu has claimed that Babcock’s actions contributed to him not having an NHL career and he has since met with the league. I smell a quiet out of court settlement coming.

    If that’s the case, then Aliu has just leveraged the current social media cause du jour to facilitate a financial gain (and a measure of revenge) that would’ve been his likely result if progressing this grievance in the courts.

  136. Wilde says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Just wanted to drop in and address this quickly and give a little roadmap – all you did was dodge my questions about your critique of what’s transpired. In such a way that I don’t think you’re actually an actively dishonest interlocutor, you just really want to get shots in at whatever I represent in your head wrt your various social grievances and that is prioritised above all else.

    Short rundown:

    I opened by saying that any change that happens could be subject to your critique:

    Wilde: a people’s movement to do anything (in the internet age) seems demonisable by flatly characterising it as runaway internet social justice mobbery. Nothing is going to change without popular pressure, and even if everything happens in the real world there will be reactions to unfolding events online.

    You dodge and recharacterize the abstract idea of social change as vigilantism:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Like most, you’ve made an eloquent argument for vigilantism. Nothing more. Nothing less.

    I press you again, what is the criteria that differentiates, for example, a movement to investigate the Catholic Church’s decades of abuse, and a hypothetical one that sparks investigation into CHL teams? If what’s already occurred is vigilantism, what is the criteria that makes it so? If what’s already occurred isn’t, what your criteria for already sounding the alarm?

    You again dodge and attempt to reframe my question of your critique, ventriloquizing me as some youthful zealot uninterested in sussing out nuance when /I am asking you to provide it/:

    Bag of Pucks: Your posts are actually fascinating because they show how the vigilante creates and maintains the justifications to appoint themselves as judge, jury and executioner and then escalates that rationale into action under the belief that if they don’t take justice into their own hands, nothing will be done, nothing will change. Who are you to decide that?

    One more thing.

    I think it’s amusing when you say my argument is “always the same”.

    There’s a reason for that, my friend.

    It’s because you’ve never responded to it.

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