I Dreamed You Paid Your Dues in Canada

I don’t have a rant for you this morning, Oilers played a dizzying first period but Craig Anderson kept the Sens in the game. The visitors cashed in their youth and inexperience after the first period for wheels and a motor that wouldn’t quit, with the Oilers getting beat back to the Edmonton net time and again.

Mikko Koskinen, who has been excellent, let in two goals that were poor and another he had no chance on and the Oilers chased the game unsuccessfully. I believe a playoff team wins that game but the Oilers are leading the Pacific Division, so marrying these two things is difficult. This team is an enigma but they’ve shown too much iron this season for me to hammer them this morning. “Good team falls flat, film at 11” was your headline. There’s not enough for a rant there.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. There is also a Christmas gift offer here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
  • New Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
  • Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
  • Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
  • Lowetide:  Edmonton Oilers’ farm team recalls invaluable in playoff seasons and paying off in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers deployment shuffle will continue with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins still sidelined
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Ken Holland, who is facing his first deadline in the Jesse Puljujarvi saga
  • Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers go short or long term on Ethan Bear’s next contract?
  • Lowetide: The 2010s: Revisiting the Connor McDavid draft lottery — the day the earth stood still in Edmonton
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Unveiling the Oilers all-decade team
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 2010s: What went wrong with Nail Yakupov? How the No. 1 pick became the decade’s biggest NHL draft bust
  • Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Ranking a decade’s worth of Oilers coaches
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 30 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 13-15-2, 28 points; goal differential -8
  • Oilers in 2016: 14-11-5, 33 points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in 2017: 12-16-2, 26 points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in 2018: 16-12-2, 34 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in 2019: 17-10-3, 37 points; goal differential +5

Last night’s game goes into the loss column and reminds us that this team isn’t as good as the current record. The 2016 club had a +5 goal differential and four fewer points after 30 games, suspect that’s a more accurate representation of the current club. Injuries hurt the forward depth last night but as Dave Tippett said last night injuries are no excuse. I remain impressed with this coach.

OILERS IN DECEMBER

  • Oilers in December 2015: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in December 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in December 2018: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in December 2019: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -2

Edmonton has 37 points in 30 games and that’s good, so good in fact the team could go a point-per-game over the last 52 games and finish with 89 points. I picked them for 88, so that would represent covering the bet. The Oilers are currently on a pace that would see them post a 101-point season. I expect them to be strong in their next game, it is the team’s modus operandi.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER

  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
  • At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
  • At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-1-0, 2 points in 2 games

I have this team at a point-per-game during December and so far they’re covering the bet. I also had them roaring out to a fast start, but that Ottawa game was counted as a victory.

So maybe this is a modern playoff team, who leave points spread all over North America against weaker teams while offering fabulous opposition to better clubs. I think it’s mostly about missing the Nuge and Kassian plus Koskinen having a rare poor night. Either way, opportunity missed but without the pure rage a game like this would have inspired in previous winters.

OILERS 2019-20

It was a weird game and the Oilers never seem to play well against Ottawa (or Buffalo) but this lineup isn’t fast enough and that’s a fact. All numbers five on five unless indicated and all via NST.

  • Granlund-Haas-Russell: 9:14; 10-4 Corsi; 5-2 shots; 2-1 HDSC
  • Khaira-Draisaitl-Gagner: 6:49; 9-4 Corsi; 4-1 shots; 1-0 goals, 3-0 HDSC.
  • Neal-McDavid-Archibald: 6:34; 7-4 Corsi; 3-2 shots; 2-0 HDSC.
  • Nygard-Sheahan-Chiasson: 5:57; 7-3 Corsi; 3-1 shots; 2-0 HDSC.
  • Neal-McDavid-Draisaitl: 5:46; 4-12 Corsi; 3-9 shots; 0-1 goals; 1-3 HDSC.
  • Khaira scored a beautiful goal from Gagner and Draisaitl.
  • Klefbom scored from Gagner and Neal on the power play.
  • Klefbom-Larsson: 15:06; 15-17 Corsi; 6-8 shots; 0-4 goals; 4-5 HDSC
  • Nurse-Bear: 13:12; 12-13 Corsi; 3-8 shots; 1-0 goals; 3-2 HDSC.
  • Russell-Persson: 12:04; 9-4 Corsi; 4-1 shots; 2-1 HDSC.

TYLER BENSON

It’s time for the Edmonton Oilers to recall Tyler Benson. The wins are welcome, the playoff race is exciting and a postseason in Edmonton would be like manna from heaven.

That said, the future matters and finding out about these kid forwards has to be timed out in a fashion similar to the current landing of Oil rookie defensemen into the NHL: One at a time.

This team has a talent problem and a speed problem. Benson has skill and the organization needs to find out about his speed. Last night would have been a good time for his first NHL game, might have even given the group a lift.

There’s a lot about Benson the organization doesn’t yet know and at some point the discovery process has to include some NHL games. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zack Kassian missed last night’s game and the team was so low on skill the Ottawa Senators hammered them 5-2. Benson led the Bakersfield Condors in scoring last year and he’s leading them again this season. Time to recall a skill winger from the minors. Kailer Yamamoto needs to prove he can stay healthy. I think Benson is the right player to be recalled.

CENTERS AT FIVE ON FIVE

I like to have a look at this once every couple of weeks because it offers insight into deployment by Tippett and individual performance. Men like Markus Granlund and Sam Gagner have played some center, I’ve done my best to estimate their performance while playing the position. The results are fascinating (via NST).

  1. Connor McDavid 34-25 (+9)
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 12-10 (+2)
  3. Sam Gagner 4-2 (+2)
  4. Colby Cave 1-2 (-1)
  5. Markus Granlund 1-2 (-1)
  6. Gaetan Haas 5-7 (-2)
  7. Riley Sheahan 4-14 (-10)

This is like pondering the Expos of Gary Carter, Andre Dawson and Tim Raines, who also employed Doug Flynn, Chris Speier and Bryan Little. Put another way, as much as McDavid and Nuge accomplish, as much as Carter and Dawson and Raines delivered, Flynn, Speir and Little gave it all back plus a little bit.

Balance. Depth. Edmonton needs a No. 3 center and I believe Ken Holland is at least contemplating a move. The timing of the Colby Cave recall, coming in the hours after Nick Shore was claimed by the Winnipeg Jets, allows us to play along with the general manager.

I find two things fascinating about this situation. First, what does this organization think of Cooper Marody? If they believed in him as a center, he would be here now, right?

Put another way, in employment and deployment the Oilers are saying they would rather run Riley Sheahan with poor results than risk Marody getting those minutes. I find that fascinating.

The other fascinating thing: Just how patient Holland is during this time. He is clearly looking toward the deadline as opposed to making a trade now, or maybe he was holding back on a small tweak because there is/was a bigger trade out there. Either way, the longer Nuge is out the more obvious the problem. Colby Cave doesn’t move the needle on this issue.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun and busy morning gets started at 10, TSN1260. We’ll talk NFL at 10:20, Frank Seravalli will talk Oilers and NHL at 11 and Jonah Birenbaum from The Score will discuss the Jays early offseason at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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201 Responses to "I Dreamed You Paid Your Dues in Canada"

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  1. Jethro Tull says:

    The thing is, we’ve been told previous terrible teams have been “developing”, “growing” and “learning how to win”.

    This blinds us to what an actual team that is doing these things looks like, which is what I believe our current iteration of the Oilers is.

    Last night showed what happens when a team thoroughly dominates, doesn’t score and has a bad goal-tending performance. A very good team would not be fooled by the first period, keep the foot on the neck and if a couple of bad goals go in because of tending, tighten up defensively.

    And don’t forget Tip is still learning. He seems the kind of guy that would agree with this. He could have called a time out after the second goal. In game management is a thing. He’s benched lesser players for lesser mistakes.

    I hope he owns and uses it – destroy L.A. No “gritty” comeback win. Start as they did last night and keep going.

  2. jtblack says:

    Well said LT. Enigma they are.

    Last year when Edm started to fall apart they lost to some very poor teams on home ice. That simply cant happen if they want to be a playoff team.

    They need 3 out of 4 points against L.A. & Bufff. Preferrably 4 out of 4.

    Vegas, SJ, AZ & Van are all nipping at the Oilers heels.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    19/20
    EDM Goal Share after 30 games (17-10-3)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 35-26 (57%)
    McDavid Off Ice 27-41 (40%)
    Net EV = -5

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    27-14
    Net ST +11

    Empty Net
    2-5
    Net EN = -3

    SO & PS
    2-1
    SO & PS = +1

    Net Goal Differential +4

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    I’d just like to make one comment about Ken’s “Prince Andrew” interview yesterday.

    Wilful ignorance, or “plausible deniability” only works if you’re a foot soldier. Even then, you’re on thin ice. As the guy in charge of nearly facet of the organization and responsible for the well-being of all employees, it’s a non-starter.

    Mental health wasn’t given the credence it is today, and lord knows it isn’t given enough today. It’s the only possible sword some of the guys enabling the behavior can fall on. The rest that were directly involved? They should know how to treat people by their age.

  5. Sierra says:

    Neal-McDavid-Draisaitl: 5:46; 4-12 Corsi; 3-9 shots; 0-1 goals; 1-3 HDSC.

    Wow, those are some gross stats. No doubt there is some score effect there, but these are the team’s best players, leaders. They should at least be holding their own against the lowly Sens, even given the score effect.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points % shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL 12
    COL 9
    WPG 7

    Pacific
    ARI 7 (1 less gp .004 lead on EDM in pts %)
    EDM 7
    VEGREVILLE 4

    Wildcard
    DAL 4
    VAN 3

    Out of playoffs
    NSH 2
    MIN 2
    SJS 2
    CGY 1
    ANA 0
    CHI -2
    LAK -5

  7. jtblack says:

    San Jose is 11 – 5 in their last 16.

    Vegas has won 4 in a row.

    AZ Is toed with Edm (+7 over .500).

    All 3 teams are on the road with tough match ups tonight.

    Let the OUT OF TOWN scoreboard watching begin !

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    Sierra:
    Neal-McDavid-Draisaitl: 5:46; 4-12 Corsi; 3-9 shots; 0-1 goals; 1-3 HDSC.

    Wow, those are some gross stats. No doubt there is some score effect there, but these are the team’s best players, leaders. They should at least be holding their own against the lowly Sens, even given the score effect.

    Score effect is when the losing team starts out-fancy-statting the winning team, so as if you were to not know the score, just by looking at the shot clock, fancies and asked who you thought was winning, you would choose the team that was in fact losing.

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    jtblack: Let the OUT OF TOWN scoreboard watching begin !

    Better than 2020 draft watch!

  10. PennersPancakes says:

    Sierra:
    Neal-McDavid-Draisaitl: 5:46; 4-12 Corsi; 3-9 shots; 0-1 goals; 1-3 HDSC.

    Wow, those are some gross stats. No doubt there is some score effect there, but these are the team’s best players, leaders. They should at least be holding their own against the lowly Sens, even given the score effect.

    I could be misinterpreting it all along but I believe score effect refers to a team in the lead being out shot/out chanced since the losing team has to take more risks to try to tie it up.

  11. jtblack says:

    Jethro Tull: Better than 2020 draft watch!

    +1. waaaaay better

  12. JJS says:

    It really is fascinating how critical the 6s and 9s are to a successful team

    A group like Pittsburgh seems to have them in abundance and can overcome the loss of Crosby

    The Oilers haven’t had much luck in this department since the arrival of the Austins

    The Oilers of the early 2000s were the epitome of this concept. All heart and motor with great coaching and a few key leaders.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I believe a playoff team wins that game but the Oilers are leading the Pacific Division, so marrying these two things is difficult. This team is an enigma but they’ve shown too much iron this season for me to hammer them this morning. “Good team falls flat, film at 11” was your headline. There’s not enough for a rant there

    I agree that there’s not enough for a rant.

    I disagree that they’re an enigma.

    They’re a team that has lost the 5v5 goal share and who have a +4 goal diff due to special teams.

    EDM is 14th in the NHL in goal diff
    EDM is 7th in the WC in goal diff
    EDM is 4th in the Pacific in goal diff

    Here’s their monthly splits of EV (3v3, 4v4, 5v5) goal diff and Special Teams goal diff:

    Oct
    EV +2
    ST +4

    Nov
    EV -3
    ST +5

    Dec
    EV -4
    ST +2

    Net so far
    5v5 -5
    ST +11

    Bruce just posted this on twitter:

    @BruceMcCurdy
    In their last 7 games the Oilers have lost games by 5-1, 4-1, 5-2 & 5-2.

    Their goaltending bubble has seemed to burst and when the special teams aren’t enough they lose.

    I don’t know why they shit the bed so hard after playing a very good 1st period.

    Maybe they thought they could walk through the game and win?

    They played well from behind before but last night was really bad.

    They’re not getting the goaltending to keep the in the games they lose and they don’t win the EV goal battle.

    Its a castle built on special teams goal diff.

    Its stronger base material than sand, but its not bedrock either.

    Also,

    There’s an argument that EDM was only +2 in EV goal diff in Oct because RNH’s line was running hot.

    Oct
    RNH On
    CF% 53.5
    xGF% 55.6
    GF% 66.7
    PDO 1035

    Nov 1- today
    RNHON
    CF% 43.0
    xGF% 41.0
    GF% 40.0
    PDO 1002

    Some of that is injury related.

    This is why people want Hall back so bad.

    RNH can’t do it alone

    Sheahan’s line is single-highhandedly giving back everything 97 gains 5v5.

    Which is why people want Pageau so bad.

    They’re not a bad team, but they’re not as good as their record.

  14. McSorley33 says:

    Can’t get that vomit taste out of my mouth from last night….that was some display of
    goaltending.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EDM’s Expected goal share by period last night:

    1st – 88.0%
    2nd – 36.2%
    3rd – 17.7%

    How a team gives up like that is the biggest concern.

    As noted by Sierra 18-97-29 going 25% CF WHILE CHASING THE GAME is mind boggling.

    Do they get that discouraged by shitty goals against?

    This is where Tippett needs to coach his ass off.

    They weren’t quitting on games earlier in the year.

    Is the rash of high goals against games weighing on them?

    Its a big concern imo.

  16. verdad2.0 says:

    The answers to fixing the Oilers are not in Bakersfield but for Bouchard.
    None are any better than the garbage they have on this team now.
    The answer is get serious and earn your money Holland.
    Larsson, Russell and Nurse out for actual NHL forwards.
    Waive most of the garbage Holland acquired in the summer, more accurate to say wasted the Sekera buyout on.
    Ottawa had more quality forwards than the Oilers.
    Contemplate that.
    A team has the 2 best players in hockey and no one to play with. A disgrace.

    Face reality , not mindless stats.
    This team is as wretched as the last 3 years, Tippet as clueless as MacLelland and Hitchcock.
    Woeful.

  17. McSorley33 says:

    Put another way, in employment and deployment the Oilers are saying they would rather run Riley Sheahan with poor results than risk Marody getting those minutes. I find that fascinating.
    ********************************************************************************************************

    This is a massive tell from the org. about Marody.

    I suspect Cooper realizes what this org thinks as well ……

  18. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: McDavid On Ice 35-26 (57%)
    McDavid Off Ice 27-41 (40%)
    Net EV = -5

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    27-14
    Net ST +11

    That even strength goal share is not good for a team that will IMO make the playoffs.

    Refs will put their whistles away in the playoffs so the special teams advantage wont be there as well.

  19. Clarkenstein says:

    Just two words this morning. Klefbrom. Larsson.
    Klefbom is playing the worst hockey of his career. Every other game is a tire fire.
    Larsson was described as being cool, calm. He’s become indecisive and treats the puck like a hand grenade. These guys give up 2 on 1’s like candy at a parade.

  20. Professor Q says:

    So, the team is in trouble, eh?

  21. Professor Q says:

    frjohnk: That even strength goal share is not good for a team that will IMO make the playoffs.

    Refs will put their whistles away in the playoffs so the special teams advantage wont be there as well.

    You mean they don’t put them away when Edmonton plays in the Regular Season?

  22. texmex says:

    Professor Q: You mean they don’t put them away when Edmonton plays in the Regular Season?

    The Oilers had 7 power plays last night……..

  23. LadiesloveSmid says:

    “Seems like a guaranteed win game that the oilers blow.

    Those wings are barren. Nuge come back, they can hardly do this WITH you.”

    All these years becoming this jaded had me not even surprised. Glad I had to miss the last 2 periods for my own game. Yeesh.

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Just two words this morning.Klefbrom.Larsson.
    Klefbom is playing the worst hockey of his career. Every other game is a tire fire.
    Larsson was described as being cool, calm. He’s become indecisive and treats the puck like a hand grenade. These guys give up 2 on 1’s like candy at a parade.

    That’s the worst game I’ve seen Klef play in a long time.

    Watching Larsson ignore his center of the ice 20ft passing option in favour of 50ft stretch passes into traffic and dump outs wasn’t fun to watch last night.

  25. Professor Q says:

    texmex: The Oilers had 7 power plays last night……..

    I didn’t watch, but I think we all know that that is both a rarity for Edmonton, and yes, a bad sign that nothing happened in the score for them.

  26. texmex says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s the worst game I’ve seen Klef play in a long time.

    Watching Larsson ignore his center of the ice 20ft passing option in favour of 50ft stretch passes into traffic and dump outs wasn’t fun to watch last night.

    I very seldom watch the intermissions of games but decided to watch it last night. During the first intermission Drew Remenda was raving about Klefbom and how he has become a true number one Dman in the league etc etc. I knew then and there Klef was going to shit the bed!!!

  27. who says:

    Sierra:
    Neal-McDavid-Draisaitl: 5:46; 4-12 Corsi; 3-9 shots; 0-1 goals; 1-3 HDSC.

    Wow, those are some gross stats. No doubt there is some score effect there, but these are the team’s best players, leaders. They should at least be holding their own against the lowly Sens, even given the score effect.

    Tippet has been pulling the right strings all year but I believe he made a coaching error last night.
    Loading up on 1 line didn’t work at all. All 3 of them were awful in the 3rd. I think he should have stayed with his starting lineup.
    Listened to the Cult of Hockey this morning and they were blaming Klefboms backcheck for the 3rd goal. Have to disagree.
    That goal is on Drai. Extended shift in ozone, back to dzone, get possession of puck, carry puck through neutral zone.
    At this point your unit has been on for over a minute. YOU HAVE TO GET THAT PUCK BELOW THE GOAL LINE AND GET OFF. Don’t know what he was trying to do with that flip at the blueline. Horrible game management.
    Tippet pretty much spelled it out in his presser.

  28. Oilin4 says:

    After last night, can we please stop talking about selling significant future assets to win now. This team is not ready to push. 7 weeks of roughly Bettman .500 after a 5 game winning streak didn’t change that fact. Enjoy the ride sure, but thinking we’re in win now mode is misguided. Last night a good example of that.

  29. Darth Tu says:

    I love how Verdad only ever shows up after losses.

  30. Oilin4 says:

    McSorley33:
    Can’t get that vomit taste out of my mouth from last night….that was some display of
    goaltending.

    Woodguy v2.0:
    EDM’s Expected goal share by period last night:

    1st – 88.0%
    2nd – 36.2%
    3rd – 17.7%

    How a team gives up like that is the biggest concern.

    As noted by Sierra 18-97-29 going 25% CF WHILE CHASING THE GAME is mind boggling.

    Do they get that discouraged by shitty goals against?

    This is where Tippett needs to coach his ass off.

    They weren’t quitting on games earlier in the year.

    Is the rash of high goals against games weighing on them?

    Its a big concern imo.

    I put these two comments together. These guys give up on games after shitty goals often. It’s pretty hypocritical given how critical his play has been for their early success and how often he bails their asses out after terrible defensive mistakes (hate to say it but McD and Drai cheat for offense, they are not even top 30% on D IMO). Other people make mistakes guys. True leaders work their ass off to bail out their teammates.

  31. jtblack says:

    One word. DEPTH

    The Oilers simply lack depth. We all knew it was an issue to be addressed. Ken tried to add some depth on a shoe string budget. But its clear his adds are almost all replacement level.

    Neal for Lucic was a win. Can you imagine this team if Ken didnt make that move? But Neal has not been good at 5×5 for a few years. He is what he is; a slow moving aging power forward. His numbers have tailed right off since the Heater in OCT.

    Every team has to deal with injuries.

    Last year Edm was OK, but as soon as Klef and Russell went down they started to wilt.

    Now with RNH and Kass out the forward group has …. 2 players who can be counted on for Offense.

    Good teams with depth can over come 1 or 2 injuries. Clearly Edm is not there yet.

    Is this team better than last year? slightly.

    Are they Good enough to make the playoffs? We Wait

  32. Wilde says:

    I think that if the org believed in Marody as a winger he’d be here.

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    This team needs two forwards. It needed two forwards when the season started. It doesn’t matter what happens here on out; the team still needs two forwards. If Holland gets two forwards, this will be a very good team. If he doesn’t, the team could still make the playoffs, but they are still incomplete.

  34. godot10 says:

    McSorley33:
    Put another way, in employment and deployment the Oilers are saying they would rather run Riley Sheahan with poor results than risk Marody getting those minutes. I find that fascinating.
    ********************************************************************************************************

    This is a massive tell from the org. about Marody.

    I suspect Cooper realizes what this org thinks as well ……

    Sheahan can kill a penalty and Marody can’t Currently, the OIlers winning depends more on a good penalty kill than hoping Marody can get an odd goal, and forcing Draisaitl to spend more time on the PK.

    Less PK time for Draisaitl plus Sheahan >> Marody plus more PK for Draisaitl.

    That is Holland’s and Tippett’s judgement and I think they are right.

    There is less pressure on McDavid and Draisaitl when the goals against are lower, and they play harder with less risk and stay committed to the system.

  35. Oilin4 says:

    When do/should they pull the trigger on Benson? He’s getting close to shit or get off the pot age, he may help, and it would be really good to know (from a large sample size) whether he can this season. Maybe not quite yet, but we gotta be down to a handful of weeks or less, no?

  36. russ99 says:

    We flat out got outworked especially without the puck. We won the shot and the high danger chances battle, the second quite handily.

    You can’t use shot metrics + goalie to explain away this one, out defensive structure and play without the puck was badly lacking. Koskinen let in a few bad ones, but for the most part he was hung out to dry. Smith saved our bacon a few times too, this could have been a lot worse.

    As far as adding, if anything we need a shooter, don’t think Benson (as primarily a passer) moves the needle unless someone on the roster who’s had a hard time denting the twine suddenly starts scoring.

    Not to mention a big reason Holland is shying away from call-ups is how players fit in the system. We don’t just go back on that after the system broke last night.

    Hope the boys respond after a pretty nasty video room reinforcement to come the next day or two.

  37. verdad2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Holland has no intention of fixing that
    None
    He and Tippett revere Archibald, Sheahan , Granlund etc
    Even if they can’t play

    The season is done
    Incredible when you have the two best players in hockey
    That takes real incompetence

  38. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    Sheahan plays a role, that doesn’t involve dynamic offensive play and goal scoring.

    Not sure why fans can’t see that, seems some are guilty of putting square pegs of an NHL roster into round holes of preferred player and skill-set types, where no team has a roster of players all of that type.

  39. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s the worst game I’ve seen Klef play in a long time.

    Watching Larsson ignore his center of the ice 20ft passing option in favour of 50ft stretch passes into traffic and dump outs wasn’t fun to watch last night.

    McLellan broke Larsson. Ruined him with his stupid defensive system. Can Tippett fix him?

    Plus a defensemen trying to get up to speed in a new system after being injurded for an extended period at the start of the season.

    Klefbom needs to play on a pair where he has to be the defensely responsible one. This is his sweet spot. Less (offense) is more (offense) with Klefbom. Klefbom is better both offensively and defensively when he does less.

  40. cowboy bill says:

    The top players crapped their bed in that one and that has to be very discouraging . It started with Koskinen and dwindled from there . I might add the Oil had no puck luck , while everything seemed to bounce in the Sens favor after that first period . Even in the first period where the Oilers dominated , Anderson the Oiler killer held them in the game .

    I was surprised Tippett was so quick to pull Koskinen , when he didn’t pull Smith , who was equally bad against the Canucks in that 5-2 loss at home .

    Now Edmonton has to come out and win the next 3 home games . Maybe if they get Nuge , Kassian &
    Benning back .

  41. godot10 says:

    russ99:
    We flat out got outworked especially without the puck. We won the shot and the high danger chances battle, the second quite handily.

    You can’t use shot metrics + goalie to explain away this one, out defensive structure and play without the puck was badly lacking.Koskinen let in a few bad ones, but for the most part he was hung out to dry. Smith saved our bacon a few times too, this could have been a lot worse.

    As far as adding, if anything we need a shooter, don’t think Benson (as primarily a passer) moves the needle unless someone on the roster who’s had a hard time denting the twine suddenly starts scoring.

    Not to mention a big reason Holland is shying away from call-ups is how players fit in the system. We don’t just go back on that after the system broke last night.

    Hope the boys respond after a pretty nasty video room reinforcement to come the next day or two.

    Neal can shoot. Put Benson with Nugent-Hopkins and Neal.

    I don’t see the Benson callup till after the Christmas Break.

  42. dustrock says:

    No, let’s continue to call up the Colby Caves of the world, surely they can contribute.

  43. verdad2.0 says:

    Without fundamental changes to this line up, the season is over.
    Over.

    Waive most of the forwards , trade half the defense and re-invent the forwards so the two best players in hockey actually have someone to play with.

    But that would require an engaged GM.
    He prefers to engage in non-speak.

  44. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: Neal can shoot.Put Benson with Nugent-Hopkins and Neal.

    I don’t see the Benson callup till after the Christmas Break.

    Neal is an interesting case.

    He scored 7 goals in his first 4 games and has only scored 7 since.

    His sky high shooting percentage is predictably crashing even though the Oilers PP% remains the highest in the league in the past five seasons (this should regress too.)

    At evens, Neal has been dreadful sporting a plus/minus of -16 on a team with a positive goal differential.

    As Woodguy pointed out, that October heater propelled the Oilers up the standings but it was always unsustainable.

  45. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Just when I think Klefbom is turning into a top pairing D man he seems to make totally unnecessary pinches in tie or close games which give the other teams life. Watching Jones and Klefbom together made me nervous as both make risky pinches. The third Ottawa goal was a joke. Why wasn’t that line headed to the bench for a change with a smart dump in.

  46. teddyturnbuckle says:

    I agree it’s time to give Benson a sniff.

  47. McNuge93 says:

    Oilin4:
    After last night, can we please stop talking about selling significant future assets to win now. This team is not ready to push. 7 weeks of roughly Bettman .500 after a 5 game winning streak didn’t change that fact. Enjoy the ride sure, but thinking we’re in win now mode is misguided. Last night a good example of that.

    +1. We are already going to be down a 3rd round pick and would not like to see us give up another unless its a 4th rounder or later. Our organizational depth at forward is weak so we still need to build that up. If we can open up a bit of cap space next summer, (Russel trade, Benning non-signing or trade, Neal trade or buyout) that’s when to try and add to our top six.

    This is still a building and learning year. Is Bear the real deal, is Koski, Persson, maybe we see Benson later this year.

  48. Durag says:

    verdad2.0:
    Without fundamental changes to this line up, the season is over.
    Over.

    Waivemost of the forwards , trade half the defense and re-invent the forwards so the two best players in hockey actually have someone to play with.

    But that would require an engaged GM.
    He prefers to engage in non-speak.

    Ok doom & gloomer

  49. jtblack says:

    How many goals does our PP2 have this year?

  50. Sierra says:

    Jethro Tull: Score effect is when the losing team starts out-fancy-statting the winning team, so as if you were to not know the score, just by looking at the shot clock, fancies and asked who you thought was winning, you would choose the team that was in fact losing.

    Sorry, I thought my use of the wording “score effect” would be interpreted as the score was lopsided/ game was basically over when Drai was moved to the McD line, not the literal definition. My bad for not wording my thought better.

    The point still stands though. Why were their stats so bad? Surely McD and Drai are better than what the Sens can through at them?

  51. knighttown says:

    The only highlight of last nights game was this exchange…

    (Ferraro) “Unfortunate there for Nick Paul. He’s so much taller than Josh Archibald that it’s inevitable that when they collided his chin would hit Archibald’s shoulder. Just bad luck but because of the height difference his chin is right at shoulder level.”

    (Cuthbert) “Good point Ray. Paul is listed as 5 inches taller than Archibald so as you said, that puts his chin right at Archibald’s shoulder height and you can see the result here on the replay”

    I was so confused I actually put my Cheetos down, got up and looked in a mirror to verify that yes,unless you’re Barry Trotz, shoulders are for the most part, below chins.

  52. Sierra says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s the worst game I’ve seen Klef play in a long time.

    Watching Larsson ignore his center of the ice 20ft passing option in favour of 50ft stretch passes into traffic and dump outs wasn’t fun to watch last night.

    Klef”’s pinching has been brutal since the Vegas game. I wonder what he is being coached and why?

  53. PinkSocks says:

    jtblack:
    How many goals does our PP2 have this year?

    What’s a PP2?

  54. jtblack says:

    PinkSocks: What’s a PP2?

    A collection of replacement level players that come on the ice after PP1 is exhausted 😊

  55. JimmyV1965 says:

    Oilin4:
    After last night, can we please stop talking about selling significant future assets to win now. This team is not ready to push. 7 weeks of roughly Bettman .500 after a 5 game winning streak didn’t change that fact. Enjoy the ride sure, but thinking we’re in win now mode is misguided. Last night a good example of that.

    The fact remains we need two forwards. And it doesn’t look like we have anyone in the minors ready to grab those spots. Holland needs to do something to fill those holes. It has nothing to do with winning now. He either goes out and acquires those players, or we could be waiting two or three more years until someone like Lavoie is ready.

  56. PinkSocks says:

    I believe Tippett made an error loading up that first line. The numbers reflected it but it’s more of a fact that they knew they were the only hope to get back in the game and all 3 of them were trying to do too much. Tippett has been excellent thus far, but that was a definite error in judgement.

    Until Nuge comes back, I’d run Nygard up with McD to give that speed to work with not named Archibald and put Neal on the RW. 16/29/89 looked good, frustrating it didn’t stick in the 3rd.

    Nygard – McDavid – Neal
    Khaira – Draisaitl – Gagner
    Chiasson – Sheahan – Archibald
    Benson – Haas – Marody
    Granlund – Russell

    If the Oilers don’t believe Marody is a C, then he’s a winger. Sadly I don’t think the org thinks of him as a winger either.

  57. PinkSocks says:

    jtblack: A collection of replacement level players that come on the ice after PP1 is exhausted

    Sound about right haha

  58. dustrock says:

    The defining issue of the season is whether or not Holland should act to bolster a team that has outperformed expectations before the injuries and lack of roster depth torpedos that outperformance.

    If Nuge isn’t back soon I’m going to go ahead and bet the Oilers will be out of the playoffs by the end of the month.

  59. jtblack says:

    dustrock:
    The defining issue of the season is whether or not Holland should act to bolster a team that has outperformed expectations before the injuries and lack of roster depth torpedos that outperformance.

    If Nuge isn’t back soon I’m going to go ahead and bet the Oilers will be out of the playoffs by the end of the month.

    Edm has a pretty soft schedule right up until early January. They still have McD / Drai.

    I dont see them falling out that quickly. Like LT said, if they bump around the .500 til yesr end they are in track for 89 Points, which will keep them in the race until year end.

    Nownif McD or Drai mises any time due to injury, they would fall quick IMO

  60. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I’m not sure I buy or follow the whole our record is better than our play thing

    – I mean when down your #2C, the top-line winger, the top RHD coming back from fractured fibula, an underrated vet D who is concussed, and a call-up of a D with little NHL experience, collectively this would conspire to produce less good results over time than before?

    – I think the results of the last little bit are more a result of key players not being healthy and/or absent than some reflection of the team not deserving of the points it accumulated

    – To the extent that injuries are part of the game, sure in that case, we can’t expect a healthy team for the whole year, and with missed games from bona-fide NHL players comes less good play, and over the course of a year, we should expect this.

    -Without missed games/injuries from RNH, Kassian, Benning and Larrsson do you think we would be winning at the same rate as before? I do. It’s their absence that contributes greatly to less wins, a little more chaos than before: that’s how hockey works IMO. Should all these players return and be healthy, I would expect our strong play from beginning of season to continue.

    – We are on a 101 point pace. Will we finish with more or less than that? Discuss

  61. Oilin4 says:

    One thing I’ve been wondering about this season is the effectiveness of running McD and Drai the entire powerplay. How many goals are they getting in the second minute and would they be better off running a second PP unit in that time. Here’s how it breaks down.

    10 PP goals have been in 2nd minute, 17 in 1st minute. (One technically in 2nd minute of the PP but in 1st minute after an intermission)

    What’s really fascinating is the monthly breakdowns.

    October:
    5/12 PP goals scored in 1st minute
    7/12 PP goals scored in 2nd minute

    November
    10/12 PP goals scored in 1st minute
    2/12 PP goals scored in 2nd minute

    December
    2/3 PP goals scored in 1st minute
    1/3 PP goals scored in 2nd minute

    Basically, the strategy worked early and hasn’t really done much since. This poses two questions:

    In a month plus, would a PP2 get 3 goals? If not, would they get 1 or 2?
    What is the cost of running the PP1 so much? (Tiredness, not having elite players for a long time after the PP ends).
    How many SHGA are in 2nd minute?

  62. Oilin4 says:

    Oilin4:
    One thing I’ve been wondering about this season is the effectiveness of running McD and Drai the entire powerplay. How many goals are they getting in the second minute and would they be better off running a second PP unit in that time. Here’s how it breaks down.

    10 PP goals have been in 2nd minute, 17 in 1st minute. (One technically in 2nd minute of the PP but in 1st minute after an intermission)

    What’s really fascinating is the monthly breakdowns.

    October:
    5/12 PP goals scored in 1st minute
    7/12 PP goals scored in 2nd minute

    November
    10/12 PP goals scored in 1st minute
    2/12 PP goals scored in 2nd minute

    December
    2/3 PP goals scored in 1st minute
    1/3 PP goals scored in 2nd minute

    Basically, the strategy worked early and hasn’t really done much since. This poses two questions:

    In a month plus, would a PP2 get 3 goals? If not, would they get 1 or 2?
    What is the cost of running the PP1 so much? (Tiredness, not having elite players for a long time after the PP ends).
    How many SHGA are in 2nd minute?

    Ran the short handed numbers:

    3/4 SHGA are in 2nd minute. Meaning:

    Powerplay +/- in 1st minute 17GF – 1GA = +16
    Powerplay +/- in 2nd minute 10GF – 3GA = +7

    Since November

    Powerplay +/- in 1st minute 12GF – 1GA = +11
    Powerplay +/- in 2nd minute 3GF – 2GA = +1

  63. Munny says:

    @Meanashell

    @kinger_oil

    @godot

    Good article on rumblings in the credit markets:

    https://acting-man.com/?p=55034#more-55034

  64. Oilin4 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I’m not sure I buy or follow the whole our record is better than our play thing

    – I mean when down your #2C, the top-line winger, the top RHD coming back from fractured fibula, an underrated vet D who is concussed, and a call-up of a D with little NHL experience, collectively this would conspire to produce less good results over time than before?

    – I think the results of the last little bit are more a result of key players not being healthy and/or absent than some reflection of the team not deserving of the points it accumulated

    – To the extent that injuries are part of the game, sure in that case, we can’t expect a healthy team for the whole year, and with missed games from bona-fide NHL players comes less good play, and over the course of a year, we should expect this.

    -Without missed games/injuries from RNH, Kassian, Benning and Larrsson do you think we would be winning at the same rate as before?I do.It’s their absence that contributes greatly to less wins, a little more chaos than before: that’s how hockey works IMO.Should all these players return and be healthy, I would expect our strong play from beginning of season to continue.

    – We are on a 101 point pace.Will we finish with more or less than that?Discuss

    Fair points. But given every team faces injuries, it’s also not unfair to say your teams ability to replace injured players is part of that team’s ability / likelihood of success in a season.

  65. bendelson says:

    If the rumours are indeed true, then happy birthday LT!
    Have that extra slice at Fifendekel today… you deserve it.

  66. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Oilin4: Fair points. But given every team faces injuries, it’s also not unfair to say your teams ability to replace injured players is part of that team’s ability / likelihood of success in a season.

    – I alluded to injuries…But the point about the ability to replace injured players is a different conversation

    – We are doing better this year in part as a result of having a Jones/Bear/Persson come up and provide minutes on D

    – But yeah, we don’t have a plethora of replacements for a 2C, or a top winger

    – But my take is that the consensus is that the first part of the year was unsustainable, and we were lucky. And see look at these numbers that show that we aren’t as good

    – Look under the hood though, and we aren’t as good, because we aren’t fielding the same roster as before. So yeah, if I was reading that as a result of injuries our team isn’t as good as when the roster was filled with more NHL players, sure

    – But to compare the recent results to older ones without any context, and conclude” yup we aren’t as good as our record”: I’m just not buying that simple analysis.

    – Now if none of those guys come back, and we lose more players, sure, I too would say that we are not going to win as many games going forward.

    – This cause and effect is neglected IMO, in favor of a narrative that we were not as good as our record before, and see we aren’t winning as much now, told you so…

    – So If I read that injuries are part of the game, and at the beginning of the year it was clear that we don’t have depth, and the winning at the start of the year is a result of unsustainable health, and we should have lost X games so far, but we only have Y from top-6 players and NHL D, and we are due to have a bunch of injuries: have at ‘er.

    – But backwards looking numbers don’t “prove” that the points we earned weren’t earned based on being a very good team. We are comparing numbers with different inputs that generate them. So of course they ought to produce different results.

  67. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    bendelson,

    – Today is his B-Day: Happy birthday LT! (sorry for unwanted attention, Bendelson started it!)

  68. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Happy Birthday LT!

    Every year older you pass on a little more wisdom to this young man. Thank you.

  69. Oilin4 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I alluded to injuries…But the point about the ability to replace injured players is a different conversation

    – We are doing better this year in part as a result of having a Jones/Bear/Persson come up and provide minutes on D

    – But yeah, we don’t have a plethora of replacements for a 2C, or a top winger

    – But my take is that the consensus is that the first part of the year was unsustainable, and we were lucky.And see look at these numbers that show that we aren’t as good

    – Look under the hood though, and we aren’t as good, because we aren’t fielding the same roster as before.So yeah, if I was reading that as a result of injuries our team isn’t as good as when the roster was filled with more NHL players, sure

    – But to compare the recent results to older ones without any context, and conclude” yup we aren’t as good as our record”: I’m just not buying that simple analysis.

    – Now if none of those guys come back, and we lose more players, sure, I too would say that we are not going to win as many games going forward.

    – This cause and effect is neglected IMO, in favor of a narrative that we were not as good as our record before, and see we aren’t winning as much now, told you so…

    – So If I read that injuries are part of the game, and at the beginning of the year it was clear that we don’t have depth, and the winning at the start of the year is a result of unsustainable health, and we should have lost X games so far, but we only have Y from top-6 players and NHL D, and we are due to have a bunch of injuries: have at ‘er.

    – But backwards looking numbers don’t “prove” that the points we earned weren’t earned based on being a very good team. We are comparing numbers with different inputs that generate them.So of course they ought to produce different results.

    Ok. But I will point out that this isn’t hindsight bias. Many people, including myself though not commonly on this blog, were pointing at some troubling numbers (high PDO, ridiculous / other worldly / historically unprecedented special teams numbers), and saying this can’t be sustained at the time.

    Bottom line summary of my opinion: Because we have elite talent, better goaltending, and better special teams, we are a good team. But we are not a VERY good team. Given that fact, the early season numbers did overestimate us.

  70. bendelson says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    bendelson,

    – Today is his B-Day:Happy birthday LT! (sorry for unwanted attention, Bendelson started it!)

    What can I say… I’m a thoughtful bastard. It’s just how I roll.

  71. jtblack says:

    Munny,

    thanks for this. good stuff

  72. Wilde says:

    Munny,

    Interesting website

    e: this is anthropologically fascinating

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Both Nuge and Kassian are taking part in the optional practice today.

  74. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Oilin4:. But we are not a VERY good team. Given that fact, the early season numbers did overestimate us.

    – yeah, therein lies the Rub IMO… Most did not believe this was a very good team.

    – Now that the team isn’t playing as well, we point to the numbers and say : see…

    – We don’t know what we don’t know: if all of RNH Benning, Kassian and Larsson were still healthy, would we still be on the 110 point pace? Are we going to be a lot less than 101 points at end of season? The players generate the data we look at to conclude they are better or worse than before.

    – If we want to attribute the recent slow down to factors other than less NHL players, and give weight to the fact that we don’t have a ton of depth: sure.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    No surprise but Matt Blumel is on the roster for the Czech WJ camp.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy:

    I don’t know why they shit the bed so hard after playing a very good 1st period.

    Two soft goals on the tender in 12 seconds – yes, there were skater mistakes, in particular on the 2nd goal, however, those were grade B chances at best (as per Bruce and CoH).

    Most teams sag hard after tending like that.

    Of course, the Oilers have shown the inability to “unsag”, that is, get the momentum back and tilt the ice in their favor, however, we know why/how/when the game turned.

    Even Tipp was fairly hard on Koskinen in his post-game (but in a non-asshole type manner).

  77. dustrock says:

    jtblack: Edm has a pretty soft schedule right up until early January.They still have McD / Drai.

    I dont see them falling out that quickly.Like LT said, if they bump around the .500 til yesr end they are in track for 89 Points, which will keep them in the race until year end.

    Nownif McD or Drai mises any time due to injury, they would fall quick IMO

    I apologize, years of abuse have made me expect the worst.

    If their special teams stay hot and their goaltending stays hot, there is a chance.

    But they were losing the 5v5 battle all season long, and I thought they had a very easy October.

    Smith is old and his best seasons are behind him, and Koskinen doesn’t have the track record of staying at a .925 sv %age.

    If the PP gets cold and Koski falls back to Earth, it could get ugly, especially sans Nuge.

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair:

    I don’t disagree exactly, just wanted to add some context to your comment.

    Harpers Hair: Neal is an interesting case.

    He scored 7 goals in his first 4 games and has only scored 7 since.

    This is correct. But, 7 goals in 26 games is still a 22 goal pace. If we project that he’ll maintain that pace through the season (not unreasonable), he’ll finish with 28. His career average prior to this season was 28.9 goals per 82. He’s right on pace.

    Also, only 75 forwards have scored more than 7 goals since October 12th. There are 93 1st line forwards in the league, so that’s not bad company to keep.

    Harpers Hair:
    His sky high shooting percentage is predictably crashing even though the Oilers PP% remains the highest in the league in the past five seasons (this should regress too.)

    Since October 12th (removing the first 4 games) Neal’s shooting percentage has been 12.5%, basically on par with his 11.6% career average prior to this season. If he maintains his shot totals I don’t think a 28 goal season is unreasonable at this point.

    As for the PP, while it likely will cool off somewhat it should still remain a top-5 PP in the league, maybe even top-3. McDavid and Draisaitl were 5th and 12th in 5v4 scoring last year, while Nuge was 16th. Having another trigger-man like Neal gives the PP a new dimension that makes it more difficult to defend.

    Harpers Hair: At evens, Neal has been dreadful sporting a plus/minus of -16 on a team with a positive goal differential.

    Actually, at even strength Neal is -11 on a team that is -6. At 5v5 Neal is -8 on a team that is -6. Still bad, but not as bad as your comparison of two totally different metrics.

  79. ArmchairGM says:

    McNuge93: +1. We are already going to be down a 3rd round pick and would not like to see us give up another unless its a 4th rounder or later. Our organizational depth at forward is weak so we still need to build that up. If we can open up a bit of cap space next summer, (Russel trade, Benning non-signing or trade, Neal trade or buyout) that’s when to try and add to our top six.

    This is still a building and learning year. Is Bear the real deal, is Koski, Persson, maybe we see Benson later this year.

    Agree with this thinking, although I reserve the right to change my mind closer to the deadline. 😉

  80. ArmchairGM says:

    knighttown:
    The only highlight of last nights game was this exchange…

    (Ferraro) “Unfortunate there for Nick Paul.He’s so much taller than Josh Archibald that it’s inevitable that when they collided his chin would hit Archibald’s shoulder.Just bad luck but because of the height difference his chin is right at shoulder level.”

    (Cuthbert)“Good point Ray.Paul is listed as 5 inches taller than Archibald so as you said, that puts his chin right at Archibald’s shoulder height and you can see the result here on the replay”

    I was so confused I actually put my Cheetos down, got up and looked in a mirror to verify that yes,unless you’re Barry Trotz, shoulders are for the most part, below chins.

    This gave me a laugh – thanks!

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex: The Oilers had 7 power plays last night……..

    Yes, but 4 of them were in the last 5 minutes of the game…..

  82. Oilin4 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – yeah, therein lies the Rub IMO…Most did not believe this was a very good team.

    – Now that the team isn’t playing as well, we point to the numbers and say : see…

    – We don’t know what we don’t know: if all of RNH Benning, Kassian and Larsson were still healthy, would we still be on the 110 point pace?Are we going to be a lot less than 101 points at end of season?

    – If we want to attribute the recent slow down to factors other than less NHL players, and give weight to the fact that we don’t have a ton of depth: sure.

    I think we agree more than we’re letting on. What I’m trying to say is the downturn is caused by BOTH injuries and a regression to what is probably our actual ability. I worry that attributing solely to injuries suggests we’re an irresponsible trade or two away from going back to what we *thought* our ability was. But maybe I just have lingering Chiarelli-era learned helplessness.

  83. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Happy birthday LT!!

  84. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think the Marody tell is in an indicator that the Oilers were horrible on GA last year and GM & HC are not going to gravitate towards rookies as the optimal fix for that.

    We really don’t appreciate the totality of what Tippett has accomplished thus far imo.

    Holland turned over the bottom 6, brought Neal into the Top 6 and they’ve integrated two rookie D with first Bear and now Perrson. And they’ve lost three core pieces to injury with Larsson and now Nuge and Kassian. Oh yeah, and a new goalie rotation and all new coaches.

    That is a massive amount of change in one offseason, and yet this team looks remarkably coherent and in fact, markedly improved on special teams, controlled breakouts, and defensive structure.

    Anyone care to recall all the open looks in the slot last year’s team gave up?

    I would like to see a Benson callup as well. It’s time. But we shouldn’t be surprised there hasn’t been more rooks played sooner. Tippett was juggling a LOT of balls early and has done a fantastic job getting it to gel as well as it has to this point.

    Rookies bring enthusiasm. They also bring mistakes. There needs to be some Buyer Beware on them imo. The margins for error start to shrink as this war of attrition continues. This includes our older Euros who are new to NA hockey. The early NHL season is a cakewalk compared to the stretch drive when the physicality ramps up.

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Tippet knows after years coaching the Dogs, that having a desirable roster isn’t necessary to win in the reg season.

    If players do their jobs well lesser can win, see the islanders. The Oilers have top talent.

    If everyone does their job this team in particular and any can win a lot of games. They are still learning, Connor and Leo are learning patience. They are still trying to force things at times and it doesn’t always work. The lesser guys are hampered by team inconsistency, teams like Boston and Pittsburgh have years of established high level play that makes it easier for role players IMO.

    Playoffs are different, teams without depth and usually top end players can’t go deep as they run into other teams also playing well that have those things.

  86. Bag of Pucks says:

    Happy Birthday LT. I’ll be listening closely for signs of hangover voice on tomorrow’s show! 🍺😛

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    The guy next door has this egregiously loud leaf blower. I have to close all the windows and crank up the stereo to mask it when he commences with the noise pollution.

    I’ve now dubbed this leaf blower Verdad.

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    Happy 39th, LT!

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Tippet has been pulling the right strings all year but I believe he made a coaching error last night.
    Loading up on 1 line didn’t work at all.All 3 of them were awful in the 3rd. I think he should have stayed with his starting lineup.
    Listened to the Cult of Hockey this morning and they were blaming Klefboms backcheck for the 3rd goal. Have to disagree.
    That goal is on Drai. Extended shift in ozone,back to dzone, get possession of puck, carry puck through neutral zone.
    At this point your unit has been on for over a minute. YOU HAVE TO GET THAT PUCK BELOW THE GOAL LINE AND GET OFF. Don’t know what he was trying to do with that flip at the blueline. Horrible game management.
    Tippet pretty much spelled it out in his presser.

    Yup, the turnover at the opposition blue line provided direct culpability on that one.

    Guys like Drai and McDavid get more leash at the o-blue line but, if they are going to dump it in (which is rare), at least it get it deep…

  90. Dr. Taboggan says:

    I have really enjoyed the music suggestions over the past few days. Anyone have any suggestions for artists in the Explosions in the Sky/ Godspeed genre?

  91. bod says:

    In November 2019:
    Wash lost 4-3 to Ari, 5-2 to Mon, 4-1 to NYR and 2-1 to Van.
    StL lost 3-2 to Ari, 3-2 to Columbus, 4-1 to Ana and 4-2 and 3-2 to Nash.
    Bos lost four straight 5-4 to Mon, 4-2 to Det, 3-2 to Phil and 5-4 to Fla.
    Each team lost to at least one bad team and a couple of iffy ones. If losing to a bad team makes you a crappy non-playoff team, the top three teams are out and there’s lots of room at the top!!
    What’s more telling? To lose to non-playoff teams from time to time or to beat the top teams?
    In the end, points count and the Oilers have managed to accumulate enough for 6th in the NHL.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Kassian will be back either Friday or Sunday for sure but Nuge’s return is a bit more uncertain – blah!

    Kassian’s just been dealing with some back spasms after a hit there in the first Canuck game.

    Credit: Nugent-Bowman as per Tip.

  93. verdad2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Verdad as in truth teller
    This team is a disgrace, and Holland does nothing, arguably made it worse Neal nitwithstanding

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV:
    This team needs two forwards. It needed two forwards when the season started. It doesn’t matter what happens here on out, the team still needs two forwards. If Holland gets two forwards, this will be a very good team. If he doesn’t, the team could still make the playoffs, but they are still incomplete.

    One of those forwards may by Tyler Benson – we don’t know yet but we may find out in the next month or so…

  95. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar: One of those forwards may by Tyler Benson – we don’t know yet but we may find out in the next month or so…

    Another angle to consider…

    If Benson is potentially a trade piece going the other way for a more established scorer/winger or 3C, does Holland risk bringing him up and having him look ordinary at best against NHL competition? Or leave him down in the minors until trade deadline to keep leading the Condors and potentially increasing his trade value?

    Remember Benson is not a Holland draft pick…he has no attachment to him

  96. Eh Team says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: We are on a 101 point pace. Will we finish with more or less than that? Discuss

    The Athletic now has The Oiler’s playoff odds at 45%, which is probably a fair assessment given the glaring weaknesses on the team. Still little scoring from our other forwards. Goaltending needs to be good and Smith has had a run of bad performances. The Oilers simply can’t be giving away points like they did last night.

    McDavid and Drai are running at 140 point pace and we are a marginal playoff team. That’s kind of pathetic if you think about it.

  97. Cassandra says:

    russ99:
    godot10,

    Sheahan plays a role, that doesn’t involve dynamic offensive play and goal scoring.

    Not sure why fans can’t see that, seems some are guilty of putting square pegs of an NHL roster into round holes of preferred player and skill-set types, where no team has a roster of players all of that type.

    Sheahan has been on the ice for 4 GF and 14 GA at 5on5.

    What role is his filling exactly? The role of losing to the other team at the game of hockey?

    I guess you’ve stipulated that he isn’t there to score goals, so we can ignore GF since those don’t matter. I presume you have in mind defensive hockey, the role of not getting scored on.

    Let’s see how he does?

    GA/60 3.42 (3rd worst on the team, 2nd worst forward)

    And that’s while not playing against the best scorers on the other team.

    So what role is he filling? What is so valuable about his player type? He doesn’t help you score and he doesn’t stop the other team from scoring. So what is he doing?

  98. Dr. Taboggan says:

    verdad2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Verdad as in truth teller
    This team is a disgrace, and Holland does nothing, arguably made it worse Neal nitwithstanding

    Totally agree. If Holland does not trade for OEL tonight he is the worst GM in history.

  99. godot10 says:

    Munny:
    @Meanashell

    @kinger_oil

    @godot

    Good article on rumblings in the credit markets:

    https://acting-man.com/?p=55034#more-55034

    Something definitely happened in September when the Fed was forced to start Not-QE QE, and ballooning its balance sheet again.

    There is no exit.

  100. ArmchairGM says:

    Eh Team: The Athletic now has The Oiler’s playoff odds at 45%, which is probably a fair assessment given the glaring weaknesses on the team.Still little scoring from our other forwards.Goaltending needs to be good and Smith has had a run of bad performances.The Oilers simply can’t be giving away points like they did last night.

    McDavid and Drai are running at 140 point pace and we are a marginal playoff team.That’s kind of pathetic if you think about it.

    If by marginal you mean leading the division… and The Athletic’s model is largely based on previous year’s performance, that’s been discussed here at length.

  101. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    “He doesn’t help you score and he doesn’t stop the other team from scoring. So what is he doing?”

    Replacing LUCIC 🙂

  102. ArmchairGM says:

    Cassandra: Sheahan has been on the ice for 4 GF and 14 GA at 5on5.

    What role is his filling exactly?The role of losing to the other team at the game of hockey?

    I guess you’ve stipulated that he isn’t there to score goals, so we can ignore GF since those don’t matter.I presume you have in mind defensive hockey, the role of not getting scored on.

    Let’s see how he does?

    GA/60 3.42 (3rd worst on the team, 2nd worst forward)

    And that’s while not playing against the best scorers on the other team.

    So what role is he filling?What is so valuable about his player type?He doesn’t help you score and he doesn’t stop the other team from scoring.So what is he doing?

    Sheahan’s GF/60 and GA/60 against the Woodmoney tiers:

    1.94 GF – 3.87 GA [-1.94] vs Elites
    1.20 GF – 1.80 GA [-0.60] vs Middle
    0.00 GF – 5.42 GA [-5.42] vs Gritensity

    I think I found the problem.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilin:
    When do/should they pull the trigger on Benson? He’s getting close to shit or get off the pot age, he may help, and it would be really good to know (from a large sample size) whether he can this season. Maybe not quite yet, but we gotta be down to a handful of weeks or less, no?

    He’s in his second year of pro – 2 months in to his second year of pro – he’s either ready or close in any event but I can’t agree with the beginning of the above statement.

  104. russ99 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Also very telling when you look at zonestarts among our centers.

    He’s taking a lions share of the d zone starts against everybody. Gotta grade it in a curve.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    ArmchairGM,

    Also very telling when you look at zonestarts among our centers.

    He’s taking a lions share of the d zone starts against everybody. Gotta grade it in a curve.

    For sure, but that Gritensity number is just plain bad.

  106. russ99 says:

    If we had a decent third line that could share the load, Sheehan wound do better.

    That he’s playing a defeco d-zone start center role and still only -10 on goal differential with little scoring boxcars is why he’s there. Not to mention quality work on the PK.

    If he’s so horrible a hockey player who do you nominate for that role? Throw Haas or Marody to the wolves? Somebody has to put in the tough minutes.

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    If we had a decent third line that could share the load, Sheehan wound do better.

    That he’s playing a defeco d-zone start center role and still only -10 on goal differential with little scoring boxcars is why he’s there. Not to mention quality work on the PK.

    If he’s so horrible a hockey player who do you nominate for that role? Throw Haas or Marody to the wolves? Somebody has to put in the tough minutes.

    He’s getting lots of D-zone starts but he isn’t playing the shutdown role.

    http://puckiq.com/teams/edm?season=20192020&from_date=&to_date=&tier=Elite&positions=c&min_toi=&max_toi=

    But I agree: he needs help.

  108. verdad2.0 says:

    Dr. Taboggan,

    Well that could have been done by Chiarelli and he was too stupid to do it.
    We got stuck with Klefbom and Larsson.

    But now that you brought it up dare Arizona to trade OEL straight up for Nurse.
    That would be a massive upgrade for the Oilers.

  109. verdad2.0 says:

    Calling up Colby Cave only validates how inept Holland is.
    What point is there in that?

    More garbage does not elevate the talent of the team.
    Transactions are the only hope to salvage the season.

    Internal improvement is not happening.

  110. Dr. Taboggan says:

    verdad2.0:
    Calling up Colby Cave only validates how inept Holland is.
    What point is there in that?

    More garbage does not elevate the talent of the team.
    Transactions are the onlyhope to salvage the season.

    Internal improvement is not happening.

    Dare the Penguins to trade Sidney Crosby straight up for Colby Cave! That would be a massive upgrade for the Oilers.

  111. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM: If by marginal you mean leading the division… and The Athletic’s model is largely based on previous year’s performance, that’s been discussed here at length.

    It is not based on last seasons performance.

    In fact it’s not team based at all but on the three season average of individual players on every team adjusted for recent bias among other things.

    Thus it accounts for injury , performance outliers, difficulty of schedule etc.

  112. stephen sheps says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    I have really enjoyed the music suggestions over the past few days. Anyone have any suggestions for artists in the Explosions in the Sky/ Godspeed genre?

    Post Rock isn’t what it used to be in terms of prominence or visibility, sadly. Finding new gems in that genre is tough. I assume that you already know of mogwai? If not, you’re in for a treat.

  113. Oilin4 says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s in his second year of pro – 2 months in to his second year of pro – he’s either ready or close in any event but I can’t agree with the beginning of the above statement.

    Players reach their peak at 22/23. He turns 22 in March. He has 2 maybe 3 seasons. If he doesn’t crack the team by this time next year, he is very unlikely to do so afterwards. After 15 years of playing hockey he has a year, maybe two, to find out where he peaks. If that isn’t shit or get off the pot time, what is?

  114. verdad2.0 says:

    Dr. Taboggan,

    The issue at hand is making the Oilers better
    the current collection of players is horrific
    And Holland does nothing to fix it.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: It is not based on last seasons performance.

    … but on the three season average of individual players on every team adjusted for recent bias

    Yeah, basically what I said.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljujarvi got his offence back up and running with a goal and a couple apples today – only 15 minutes of ice which is lower than we are used to seeing.

    No points for either Broberg or Berglund in a 5-3 loss – Berglund’s ice down to 17 minutes (he’s been playing alot lately) and Broberg only had a squeeze over 13 min – 4 shots on net for him though.

  117. v4ance says:

    As much as I’ve criticized Kris Russell in the past I have to give him props. He’s played much better under Tippett’s systems where he takes the puck after a reset and skates it up the middle. Under pressure, I’ve seen him make good plays skating it past the net and making a good outlet pass.

    In McLellan’s system, he and the other D were coached to go off the glass and out or a pass to a winger above the hash marks.The pass to the winger got so predictable, the opposing D would crash down and intercept or disrupt that pass a majority of the time.

    On the other hand Klef has struggled at times with Tippett’s system. All D are asked to be more aggressive on pinches in the offensive zone to continue puck possession. Klef seems to be too aggressive right now and it’s hurting us with odd man rushes. If he can dial it back a touch, he should be better.

  118. meanashell11 says:

    Munny:
    @Meanashell

    @kinger_oil

    @godot

    Good article on rumblings in the credit markets:

    https://acting-man.com/?p=55034#more-55034

    Credit and levered loans are not the problem. Credit investors can hedge and do hedge their downside. The real problem is the hedges, back in the day they used credit default swaps but today they use ETFs and those will cause the next systemic risk because they offer something they cannot deliver, liquidity. The fact regulators have allowed these to flourish to the extent they have is borderline criminal. Credit players short ETFs and I am very happy to be short RTFs because when the market breaks those guys are done. This is similar to break the buck money market funds back in the day…..

  119. HenryDrix says:

    My thoughts about:
    Last night – a couple bad Goals you can pin on the goalie, no biggie, all goalies have off games. Our tending has been real good overall this year.

    Roster: Obviously not all of Kenny’s bets have paid off, we knew some could, and some have, so expectations met? Maybe. However, Kenny should now be flushing whatever stinks and bring in the freshness of new players, be they call-ups or trades. Ahh, Febreeze… Some players were available by waiver earlier… it’s a tough spot, little Cap room and lots of need. Honey, I need more TP!!!

    I believe in you Kenny, you can do it, just don’t leave the roster the way it is.

  120. meanashell11 says:

    godot10: Something definitely happened in September when the Fed was forced to start Not-QE QE, and ballooning its balance sheet again.

    There is no exit.

    Was not really QE, the money markets froze due to technical conditions due to regulatory changes that basically dried up liquidity in the GC repo market. The Fed had to intervene and inject 60 so billion on a short term basis but this will be dwarfed by the liquidity issue in ETFs.

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: McLellan broke Larsson.Ruined him with his stupid defensive system.Can Tippett fix him?

    Plus a defensemen trying to get up to speed in a new system after being injurded for an extended period at the start of the season.

    Klefbom needs to play on a pair where he has to be the defensely responsible one.This is his sweet spot.Less (offense) is more (offense) with Klefbom.Klefbom is better both offensively and defensively when he does less.

    Interesting.

  122. McSorley33 says:

    godot10: Sheahan can kill a penalty and Marody can’tCurrently, the OIlers winning depends more on a good penalty kill than hoping Marody can get an odd goal, and forcing Draisaitl to spend more time on the PK.

    Less PK time for Draisaitl plus Sheahan >>Marody plus more PK for Draisaitl.

    That is Holland’s and Tippett’s judgement and I think they are right.

    There is less pressure on McDavid and Draisaitl when the goals against are lower, and they play harder with less risk and stay committed to the system.

    Everything you think Sheahan gives you on the PK – he gives it right back 5 on 5, no?

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    verdad2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Verdad as in truth teller

    Tell me the truth about the Masons.

  124. Eh Team says:

    Here’s a good read- https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/player-grades-games-21-30-edmonton-oilers-have-been-treading-water-for-so-long-theyre-in-danger-of-becoming-waterlogged

    Lots of improvement is needed o make the playoffs. Goalies have been less than stellar over the last 10 game segment. And 5×5 play has been awful.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Sheahan’s GF/60 and GA/60 against the Woodmoney tiers:

    1.94 GF – 3.87 GA [-1.94] vs Elites
    1.20 GF – 1.80 GA [-0.60] vs Middle
    0.00 GF – 5.42 GA [-5.42] vs Gritensity

    I think I found the problem.

    Holy fuck.

  126. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, basically what I said.

    Or not.
    Apostrophes are important.

  127. Oilman99 says:

    jtblack:
    How many goals does our PP2 have this year?

    Who cares, the PP is ranked #1 in the league because PP1 plays almost all the PP time.

  128. Wilde says:

    So, now that I’ve fully integrated all 55 of the Condors games I tracked last year into my new setup, I got the urge to fill out the sample (especially to get every single Yamamoto game on record) and I’ve been turbo-tracking those loose ones, when suddenly I have a weird deja vu moment where Marody makes a player I’m absolutely certain happened inside the existing sample’s pool of games – I thought I was accidentally re-tracking a game:

    https://streamable.com/ol8pv

    Then, as I kept watching I realised it wasn’t – he made that /exact/ play (with both the move along the board to loosen his check and the subsequent one up high to lose him completely, exactly) multiple times last year.

    I guess it’s not too surprising, he and Benson love to skate around the perimeter and do some nifty mindfuckery to hit Currie/Yamamoto/A defenseman in stride barrelling down an inside lane. but it is pretty amusing how far ahead Marody is thinking sometimes.

  129. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Tell me the truth about the Masons.

    It all starts with Hiram Abif, the engineer who designed the first temple based on ancient Egyptian knowledge.

    Should I go on?

  130. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    meanashell11: Was not really QE, the money markets froze due to technical conditions due to regulatory changes that basically dried up liquidity in the GC repo market. The Fed had to intervene and inject 60 so billion on a short term basis but this will be dwarfed by the liquidity issue in ETFs.

    Why do ETF’s have a liquidity issue?

    Honestly don’t know.

  131. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM: Sheahan’s GF/60 and GA/60 against the Woodmoney tiers:

    1.94 GF – 3.87 GA [-1.94] vs Elites
    1.20 GF – 1.80 GA [-0.60] vs Middle
    0.00 GF – 5.42 GA [-5.42] vs Gritensity

    I think I found the problem.

    Unbelievable.

    e: 0-7.

    The counts are 0-7 GF-GA for Sheahan’s ~77min vs. Gritensity.

    e2: Klef is 4-10.

    This team has more potential than I thought it did. If they can get an average McDavid-off vs dregs setup they’ll be like +12-15 at 5v5 over 30 games.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ:
    godot10,

    Sheahan plays a role, that doesn’t involve dynamic offensive play and goal scoring.

    Not sure why fans can’t see that, seems some are guilty of putting square pegs of an NHL roster into round holes of preferred player and skill-set types, where no team has a roster of players all of that type.

    Sheahan is an important part of this team – he really is a fantastic penalty killer and that really is important. At 5 on 5, I think he’d be a decent 4C that could help the team.

    Unfortunately he’s being asked to play 3C and play many of the toughs – he’s over his head as far as offensive requirements of a 3C,

    Similar with Archibald – he is a plus PK guy and that is important, however, at 5 on 5, he’s a fourth line player. I think his speed and tenacity make for a very good 4th liner but he’s often asked, like Sheahan, to bat above his place in the order.

    Haas has been a serviceable 4C but he’s been highly inconsistent from game to game.

    A fourth line of Haas/Sheahan/Archibald could (would/should) be a very good 4th line.

    Once Kass and Nuge are back, I think the 3-center model makes sense pushing the guys talked about above down to positions where they can succeed would really help the overall lineup, I think.

    Yes, there is a lack of depth but I think the lineup can score enough this way – something like:

    Khaira/McDavid/Kassian
    Benson/Drai/Gagner
    Nygard/Nuge/Neal
    Haas/Sheahan/Archie

    Granlund/Russell

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: It all starts with Hiram Abif, the engineer who designed the first temple based on ancient Egyptian knowledge.

    Should I go on?

    I asked Verdad.

    Another time.

  134. Oilin4 says:

    Oilman99: Who cares, the PP is ranked #1 in the league because PP1 plays almost all the PP time.

    See my point from earlier. PP1 isn’t posting much lately in the second minute of the PP. After accounting for SH goals, they are basically as good as that group of players would be in a 5v5 minute.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    f

    godot: McLellan broke Larsson.Ruined him with his stupid defensive system.Can Tippett fix him?

    Plus a defensemen trying to get up to speed in a new system after being injurded for an extended period at the start of the season.

    Klefbom needs to play on a pair where he has to be the defensely responsible one.This is his sweet spot.Less (offense) is more (offense) with Klefbom.Klefbom is better both offensively and defensively when he does less.

    I think I may agree with the last two paragraphs but not sure the first one computes given how darn good Larsson was in the 2017 playoffs (and that season).

  136. Oilin4 says:

    Without looking, who has the 4th most EV goals on the Oilers this year?

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    cowboybill:

    I was surprised Tippett was so quick to pull Koskinen , when he didn’t pull Smith , who was equally bad against the Canucks in that 5-2 loss at home .

    We were playing the next night after that Vancouver game which likely factored in to Tipp’s decision to keep Koskinen fresh.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Neal is an interesting case.

    He scored 7 goals in his first 4 games and has only scored 7 since.

    His sky high shooting percentage is predictably crashing even though the Oilers PP% remains the highest in the league in the past five seasons (this should regress too.)

    At evens, Neal has been dreadful sporting a plus/minus of -16 on a team with a positive goal differential.

    As Woodguy pointed out, that October heater propelled the Oilers up the standings but it was always unsustainable.

    You continue to intentionally use plus/minus in combination with goal differential because it works for your narrative even though you know its massively flawed.

    That positive goal differential takes in to account all the PP goals but James Neal doesn’t get a plus for a all those PP goals he’s on the ice for. To use those two stats in lock-step is dishonest and you know this.

    The Oilers are a negative goal differential team at 5 on 5 – I think they are minus 6. This is not good for the team, but, as far as James Neal is concerned, its much more reflective. Of course, take away the empty net goals, so true 5 on 5, and Neal isn’t far behind the team in this area.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    The OIlers’ all-strengths goal differential is plus 3

    James Neal’s all-strengths goal differential is plus 5.

  140. meanashell11 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Why do ETF’s have a liquidity issue?

    Honestly don’t know.

    An ETF is a basket of stocks, levered loans, commodities, etc. I can trade it intraday, meaning I can buy and sell it like an individual stock. So that gives me incredible liquidity. But the ETF has to true up everyday at the close. If the underlying asset is levered loans for example, and a lot of people sell that day, the ETF has to sell the pro rata share of the underlying loans. But they are illiquid…..

    https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrb.wp59.en.pdf?c32ad640616557344d67f09d62590646

    https://sites.duke.edu/thefinregblog/2018/12/06/safe-until-they-arent-investigating-liquidity-illusions-in-the-exchange-traded-fund-market/

    https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/have-high-yield-etfs-created/01296709456

    Like a bank run on steroids.

  141. Wilde says:

    meanashell11:

    Would you like to interview for a position with the Central Committee?

  142. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Eh Team:
    Here’s a good read-https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/player-grades-games-21-30-edmonton-oilers-have-been-treading-water-for-so-long-theyre-in-danger-of-becoming-waterlogged

    Lots of improvement is needed o make the playoffs.Goalies have been less than stellar over the last 10 game segment.And 5×5 play has been awful.

    Thanks for the link.

    Here’s what stood out for me:

    Since that hot start the Oilers have won 12 of their 25 games and collected 3 Bettman Points, a .540 points percentage in what has been a .564 league to this point of the season.

    The hot start is EDM going 5-0.

    Since then they are slightly below average.

    25 games below average takes all the wind out of “but they have injuries” argument as RNH and Kassian have only missed 5 games and Kassian 3 games.

    EDM was better without Larsson than with.

  143. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: You continue to intentionally use plus/minus in combination with goal differential because it works for your narrative even though you know its massively flawed.

    That positive goal differential takes in to account all the PP goals but James Neal doesn’t get a plus for a all those PP goals he’s on the ice for. To use those two stats in lock-step is dishonest and you know this.

    The Oilers are a negative goal differential team at 5 on 5 – I think they are minus 6. This is not good for the team, but, as far as James Neal is concerned, its much more reflective. Of course, take away the empty net goals, so true 5 on 5, and Neal isn’t far behind the team in this area.

    Being behind a team that loses the even strength battle is not a good thing.

    When PP scoring regresses, which it has, the player gives up more than he creates.

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    meanashell11: An ETF is a basket of stocks, levered loans, commodities, etc. I can trade it intraday, meaning I can buy and sell it like an individual stock. So that gives me incredible liquidity. But the ETF has to true up everyday at the close. If the underlying asset is levered loans for example, and a lot of people sell that day, the ETF has to sell the pro rata share of the underlying loans. But they are illiquid…..

    https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrb.wp59.en.pdf?c32ad640616557344d67f09d62590646

    https://sites.duke.edu/thefinregblog/2018/12/06/safe-until-they-arent-investigating-liquidity-illusions-in-the-exchange-traded-fund-market/

    https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/have-high-yield-etfs-created/01296709456

    Like a bank run on steroids.

    Thanks.

    I have no idea about the % of loans in the various baskets.

    Looks like I have reading to do.

  145. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The OIlers’ all-strengths goal differential is plus 3

    James Neal’s all-strengths goal differential is plus 5.

    What is his all strengths goal differential in the last ten games?

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    BagPucks:
    Happy Birthday LT. I’ll be listening closely for signs of hangover voice on tomorrow’s show!

    He told young Tyler that he only hits the wine or Crown on weekends – we’ll see…

  147. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: He told young Tyler that he only hits the wine or Crown on weekends – we’ll see…

    Haha. Midweek drinking was a lot of fun when I did it, but at this point in my life I like to wake up with a clear head. So, no drinks for Lowetide but the weekend awaits and water is a gift.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Being behind a team that loses the even strength battle is not a good thing.

    When PP scoring regresses, which it has, the player gives up more than he creates.

    Fact: He’s been on the ice for more goals for than goals against and that doesn’t even exclude the 6 or so empty net goals against.

    Your “-16 on a plus goal differential team” is a “stat” that means nothing and you know it.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilin52:
    Without looking, who has the 4th most EV goals on the Oilers this year?

    My guess is Khaira

  150. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Fact: He’s been on the ice for more goals for than goals against and that doesn’t even exclude the 6 or so empty net goals against.

    Your “-16 on a plus goal differential team” is a “stat” that means nothing and you know it.

    Last ten games?

  151. Bill says:

    Who ever the kind, gracious fella(s) was/were that praised the libation that is Writers Tears on this hallowed site…
    I raise my whisky glass to you and yours. Decided to try a bottle, after being sober for three years. A dram or two is righteous for relaxing. Gone are the days of throwing the bottle cap away though. Not to mention it made the Oil/Sens debacle easier to watch last night.
    Are there any other whisky recommendations?

    #LowetideLounge

  152. Glovjuice says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    I have really enjoyed the music suggestions over the past few days. Anyone have any suggestions for artists in the Explosions in the Sky/ Godspeed genre?

    Mogwai (The Hawk is Howling and Rave Tapes albums); Swans (The Glowing Man Album); anything by Bowery Electric; try out Grails; newer band called Mint Field.

  153. Todd Macallan says:

    Glovjuice,

    Huge yes on Mogwai, and I’d say Every Country’s Sun is fantastic and stands up to their greats like Hawk is Howling.

    Yes! I Am a Long Way From Home off of Young Team remains one of my all time favourite songs by any band.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Last ten games?

    Feel free to do your own arbitrary research.

  155. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Glovjuice: Mogwai (The Hawk is Howling and Rave Tapes albums); Swans (The Glowing Man Album); anything by Bowery Electric; try out Grails; newer band called Mint Field.

    Awesome! Yeah, Mogwai is pretty great. I have not listened to Swans or Bowery Electric. Pretty excited.

  156. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Feel free to do your own arbitrary research.

    Already done.
    It ain’t pretty.

  157. Harpers Hair says:

    The Coyotes win and move into sole possession of first place in the Pacific.

    Missed it by THAT much.

    Minnesota also on an insane run and now relevant in the race.

  158. godot10 says:

    McSorley33: Everything you think Sheahan gives you on the PK – he gives it right back 5 on 5, no?

    I think Sheahan is playing far tougher minutes and getting started in the D-zone far more than Marody would. Net fewer events with Sheahan than with Marody, and less defensive workload for Draisaitl. Which gives McDavid and Draisaitl a better chance to win the game.

    Sheahan is also a better skater, which means there is a better pace to the Oilers game.

    The point is how to win with a bad roster.

  159. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The Coyotes win and move into sole possession of first place in the Pacific.

    Missed it by THAT much.

    Minnesota also on an insane run and now relevant in the race.

    ARI beat PHI in Philly.

    PHI was the 2nd hottest team in the league from Nov 1st until today.

    Just behind BOS, just ahead of WSH.

  160. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: ARI beat PHI in Philly.

    PHI was the 2nd hottest team in the league from Nov 1st until today.

    Just behind BOS, just ahead of WSH.

    ARZ is 10-3-3 on the road.
    That’s just ridiculous.

  161. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Why do ETF’s have a liquidity issue?

    Honestly don’t know.

    Esoteric ETF’s have a liquidity issue because they are composed of illiquid assets. In a normal market, it doesn’t matter. When volatility spikes, illiquid assets often go no bid, or the bid-ask blows out. It is particularly risky for credit ETF’s. But small sectoral stock ETF’s are dangerous places to be when the SHTF. Some ETF providers will probably blow up, as they will not have credit lines large enough to maintain solvency.

    There is a price to pay for convenience. Plus, ETF flows will be frontrun by the algorithmic trades with faster links to the market. They stand near the entrance and exit doors, and they will be first out leaving you in the burning building when the next conflagration comes.

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Esoteric ETF’s have a liquidity issue because they are composed of illiquid assets.In a normal market, it doesn’t matter.When volatility spikes, illiquid assets often go no bid, or the bid-ask blows out.It is particularly risky for credit ETF’s.But small sectoral stock ETF’s are dangerous places to be when the SHTF.Some ETF providers will probably blow up, as they will not have credit lines large enough to maintain solvency.

    There is a price to pay for convenience.Plus, ETF flows will be frontrun by the algorithmic trades with faster links to the market.They stand near the entrance and exit doors, and they will be first out leaving you in the burning building when the next conflagration comes.

    This is interesting.

    My perception was that most ETFs were composed mostly of publicly traded stock and not much of these types of assets.

    I get the illiquidity of shitty debt.

    We were kinda there in 2011, although that was really shitty debt and all bundled up to not look so much like really shitty debt.

    Is the debt in ETF’s just shitty or is it really shitty?

  163. drglen says:

    McSorley33: Everything you think Sheahan gives you on the PK – he gives it right back 5 on 5, no?

    that’s a point. I never knew the 5 x 5 numbers for sheehan were so poor. He really should not be given any kind of free pass. But he never does things that look bad to my eye.. so is he just getting beat or not in the right place?

  164. drglen says:

    Harpers Hair: ARZ is 10-3-3 on the road.
    That’s just ridiculous.

    PHilly is good. They were just a bit out of sync when they played the oilers.

  165. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is interesting.

    My perception was that most ETFs were composed mostly of publicly traded stock and not much of these types of assets.

    I get the illiquidity of shitty debt.

    We were kinda there in 2011, although that was really shitty debt and not just shitty debt all bundled up to not look so much like really shitty debt.

    The other thing is that your ETF provider may blow up because of their credit ETF’s, which might close all the doors for your stock ETF’s. A little like when the commercial paper market froze in Canada a coupld of years before the global financial crisis. A lot of the assets were money good, but an orderly wind down of the bankrupt issuers meant you only got your money/part of your money back over several years.

  166. digger50 says:

    Holy cow!

    I just watched Rieder score on a breakaway.

    Had to watch twice to confirm it really happened.

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: The other thing is that your ETF provider may blow up because of their credit ETF’s, which might close all the doors for your stock ETF’s.A little like when the commercial paper market froze in Canada a coupld of years before the global financial crisis.A lot of the assets were money good, but an orderly wind down of the bankrupt issuers meant you only got your money/part of your money back over several years.

    Thank you

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50:
    Holy cow!

    I just watched Rieder score on a breakaway.

    Had to watch twice to confirm it really happened.

    Excuse me, I’m running out to buy a lottery ticket while the getting is good.

  169. jtblack says:

    SJ – 1 PT
    VGS – 1 PT
    AZ – 2 PTS
    CGY – WINNING

    OK then …

  170. Richard Roma says:

    godot10: The other thing is that your ETF provider may blow up because of their credit ETF’s, which might close all the doors for your stock ETF’s.A little like when the commercial paper market froze in Canada a coupld of years before the global financial crisis.A lot of the assets were money good, but an orderly wind down of the bankrupt issuers meant you only got your money/part of your money back over several years.

    I thought you were a physicist.

    You seem to be quite knowledgeable about financial instruments?

  171. McSorley33 says:

    Lowetide: Haha. Midweek drinking was a lot of fun when I did it, but at this point in my life I like to wake up with a clear head. So, no drinks for Lowetide but the weekend awaits and water is a gift.

    Same.

    Happy Birthday sir….

  172. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is interesting.

    My perception was that most ETFs were composed mostly of publicly traded stock and not much of these types of assets.

    I get the illiquidity of shitty debt.

    We were kinda there in 2011, although that was really shitty debt and all bundled up to not look so much like really shitty debt.

    Is the debt in ETF’s just shitty or is it really shitty?

    The link I provided above that started this convo is partly about the “bundling up” of debt. In this case, commercial paper as opposed to the mortgage securities that led the parade in the GFC.

    Those mortgage products were hedged with credit default swaps back in 2008, but as Meanashell notes above, the commercial debt products (CLOs) are primarily hedged using ETFs.

    It’s unlikely you have any money in those ETFs, but as Godot points out, the exposure to Joe Average who’s on Questrade (or whatever) is contagion risk. I do recommend that you read all the fine print on whatever ETFs you are in, as these are unregulated products and can have many structural dissimilarities and/or downsides.

    As always, caveat emptor.

  173. Munny says:

    meanashell11,

    Thank you for the links.

    Will the hedges be the cause or a symptom of the next crisis though? Which would you keep an eye on? Seems to me the primary credit markets would be a better choice due to the propensity of ETFs to hide quality and liquidity issues.

  174. McSorley33 says:

    godot10: I think Sheahan is playing far tougher minutes and getting started in the D-zone far more than Marody would.Net fewer events with Sheahan than with Marody, and less defensive workload for Draisaitl. Which gives McDavid and Draisaitl a better chance to win the game.

    Sheahan is also a better skater, which means there is a better pace to the Oilers game.

    The point is how to win with a bad roster.

    I hear you …..well put.

  175. rickithebear says:

    Last night was
    2GA from Koskinen turning closed shots into open shots with poor technique.
    4 GA were Klefbom was a shit show.

    For the first 20 gm I was looking at % of games over 2GA.

    I prefer a shit show of GA 1 every 4 or 5 games.

    Rather than 2-3 3+GA games every 4 – 5 gm.

    2GA are markers.
    As long as 75-80% are 2ga games.

    We should make playoffs and have shot at final 4.

    Go Oilers!

  176. Harpers Hair says:

    Milan Lucic scored a goal.

    No, really.

  177. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Excuse me, I’m running out to buy a lottery ticket while the getting is good.

    And now Milan puts in a goal. Yup.

  178. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    As everyone here knows well, the major issue which plagues this team is winger depth/lack of winger skill. One thing that really stood out last night IMO was the superior team speed of the Sens. The Avs were also very fast, perhaps the fastest team in the league.

    Josh Anderson, Miles Wood, Anthanisou, Austin Wagner and Taylor Hall are all elite skaters and are players I have had my eye on. I would like to see an acquisition of a couple of these guys and for me, Anderson and Wood might be the easiest to acquire.

    I am thinking Chiasson, Marody and the 2020 4th to NJ for Wood, with $650 K retained, Michael McLeod and their 2020 7th. I think Wood could be a “lite” version of Kassian and if he plays with skill might recapture his scoring ways from 2 seasons ago.

    I am thinking JP + Caleb Jones for Josh Anderson + Marco Dano. Perhaps the the Finnish GM has no interest, but I am thinking Anderson can be gotten, when last year I thought it would be impossible.

    I also think Archibald should be traded, love his grit and tenacity, but he can’t piss a drop. I am thinking he could be swapped out with Gerald Mayhew from Minnesota (where Archibald grew up) who is the same age, but posting intriguing offense in the AHL.

    I don’t think Holland will be trading high picks or going after Hall, Kreider or Anthanisou, but I wonder if he could make other potentially impactful deals that would increase team speed.

    I am very intrigued in bringing in Michael McLeod and reuniting him with his brother, and having a couple of potential 3 or 4 two-way C with speed, with MM being a righty.

    TBH, I don’t know if Holland will do much in the way of trades. My impression was that he was going to ride the year out with the expectation of getting good picks in an excellent draft year, while giving the kids on the farm a chance to incubate longer so they are ready to compete for NHL jobs next season.

  179. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    digger50,

    Lol, for real?

  180. godot10 says:

    Richard Roma: I thought you were a physicist.

    You seem to be quite knowledgeable about financial instruments?

    Aside:
    Modern Wall Street, for better and for worse, was made by theoretical physicists who couldn’t find any other employment in the eighties. Wall Street is probably the biggest employer of theoretical physicists since the early eighties.

    When the employment market was tough for physicists in the eighties, I turned to telecommunications instead of “banking”.

    I got interested in what the banksters were up to in the early 2000’s.

    The global financial crisis was arguably caused by physicists who didn’t explain to their financial bosses with arts degrees when their models would break down. But then Wall Street knew they would be bailed out by the Fed, like they were after the NASDAQ bubble, after Long Term Capital Management, and after the Mexican crisis of the early nineties.

    The financialization of the economy, and the intellectual destruction of our institutions of higher learning, are leading the world to a horrible place. #GulagEarth

    The money changers and the zealots control all the temples.

  181. Ari says:

    meanashell11,

    Are index ETFs like ZSP or XSP at risk for illiquidity?
    Worried because I’m heavily invested in those.

  182. v4ance says:

    Bill:
    Who ever the kind, gracious fella(s) was/were that praised the libation that is Writers Tears on this hallowed site…
    I raise my whisky glass to you and yours. Decided to try a bottle, after being sober for three years. A dram or two is righteous for relaxing. Gone are the days of throwing the bottle cap away though. Not to mention it made the Oil/Sens debacle easier to watch last night.
    Are there any other whisky recommendations?

    #LowetideLounge

    The 3 recommendations I saw were:

    Shelter Point from BC
    Two Brewers from Yukon
    Alberta Distillers Cask Strength

  183. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Terrible out of town scoreboard tonight… oilers lost their hold on the pacific lead for (I’m pretty sure) the first time all season. 30 games into the season before Arizona took it from them. Kinda miraculous they held onto it this long.

    Now let’s see if the oilers respond from their recent shit showing and put up a W. Hopefully Nuge and Kassian will be back in the lineup. Tippett should put Persson back with Klefbom as well and Larsson with Russell. (Although it seems we were playing better as a team while Larsson was injured with Benning in the 3RD slot)

    Let’s go Oilers!

  184. v4ance says:

    I’m going out to buy a lottery ticket. If Lucic and Reider can get lucky, then so can I…

  185. ArmchairGM says:

    Bill:
    Who ever the kind, gracious fella(s) was/were that praised the libation that is Writers Tears on this hallowed site…
    I raise my whisky glass to you and yours. Decided to try a bottle, after being sober for three years. A dram or two is righteous for relaxing. Gone are the days of throwing the bottle cap away though. Not to mention it made the Oil/Sens debacle easier to watch last night.
    Are there any other whisky recommendations?

    #LowetideLounge

    I certainly agree – I bought a bottle of Writer’s Tear’s last week on the recommendation of this blog, and wasn’t disappointed. The latest plug I saw here was for Shelter Point, but it’s only available in BC / AB, so out of my reach at present.

  186. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Milan Lucic scored a goal.

    No, really.

    Does that mean we keep our 3rd?

  187. ArmchairGM says:

    v4ance: The 3 recommendations I saw were:

    Shelter Point from BC
    Two Brewers from Yukon
    Alberta Distillers Cask Strength

    I’ll have to add Bearface and Collingwood to the Canadian section.

    Has anyone tried Deanston 12 year old single malt? I just bought a bottle on a recommendation and it’s quite nice, although I don’t pretend to be an expert in Scotch.

  188. GMB3 says:

    Dustrocks Spotify list had some great tunes I’d never heard before… anyone else here willing to share a playlist on Spotify??

  189. meanashell11 says:

    Wilde: Would you like to interview for a position with the Central Committee?

    Sorry, I must be missing something here!

  190. meanashell11 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is interesting.

    My perception was that most ETFs were composed mostly of publicly traded stock and not much of these types of assets.

    I get the illiquidity of shitty debt.

    We were kinda there in 2011, although that was really shitty debt and all bundled up to not look so much like really shitty debt.

    Is the debt in ETF’s just shitty or is it really shitty?

    The point is not whether it’s shitty, it’s illiquid and the ETFs provide more liquidity than they have themselves. Fatal flaw.

  191. meanashell11 says:

    godot10: The other thing is that your ETF provider may blow up because of their credit ETF’s, which might close all the doors for your stock ETF’s.A little like when the commercial paper market froze in Canada a coupld of years before the global financial crisis.A lot of the assets were money good, but an orderly wind down of the bankrupt issuers meant you only got your money/part of your money back over several years.

    I negotiated some of that restructuring and was a signatory to The Montreal Accord.

  192. meanashell11 says:

    Munny:
    meanashell11,

    Thank you for the links.

    Will the hedges be the cause or a symptom of the next crisis though? Which would you keep an eye on?Seems to me the primary credit markets would be a better choice due to the propensity of ETFs to hide quality and liquidity issues.

    The hedges will benefit, remember, I am shorting the ETF. I would keep an eye on volatility, never go short vol!

  193. meanashell11 says:

    godot10: Aside:
    Modern Wall Street, for better and for worse, was made by theoretical physicists who couldn’t find any other employment in the eighties.Wall Street is probably the biggest employer of theoretical physicists since the early eighties.

    When the employment market was tough for physicists in the eighties, I turned to telecommunications instead of “banking”.

    I got interested in what the banksters were up to in the early 2000’s.

    The global financial crisis was arguably caused by physicists who didn’t explain to their financial bosses with arts degrees when their models would break down.But then Wall Street knew they would be bailed out by the Fed, like they were after the NASDAQ bubble, after Long Term Capital Management, and after the Mexican crisis of the early nineties.

    The financialization of the economy, and the intellectual destruction of our institutions of higher learning, are leading the world to a horrible place.#GulagEarth

    The money changers and the zealots control all the temples.

    I was pretty junior at the time but I worked with Fischer Black but not directly. Hot Spots and Hedges was one of the best risk management models ever developed. That was the result of the systemic risk in the 94 crisis. It provided a 3D vision of a banks risk. As for the GFC, the main culprit was bad underwriting and no skin in the game for subprime mortgage originators and the rating agencies but the part that confused bank management was the Gaussian Copula. http://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/84243/Gaussian14.pdf

  194. meanashell11 says:

    Ari:
    meanashell11,

    Are index ETFs like ZSP or XSP at risk for illiquidity?
    Worried because I’m heavily invested in those.

    The more illiquid the underlying, the more risk. I do not know those ETFs but as Godot10 says, it can become systemic and the quants will be at the exit a lot faster than our ETF manager!

  195. Sierra says:

    godot10,

    Fascinating

  196. verdad2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair,

    That is what real coaching , real drafting and real goaltending will do for you.
    Holland slept yesterday I assume.

    Wait until Arizona get Hall while giving up nothing, while the Oilers collapse to the bottom of the Pacific.
    Then the fire Holland reality should hit its peak.

  197. verdad2.0 says:

    Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes,

    Holland is a complete idiot if that is what he does.
    He has nothing on the farm. If any of it was worth anything it would be in Edmonton already. Edmonton have the worst set of wingers in the NHL.
    Doing nothing gets you nothing.

    The present is all that matters. Trading futures is obvious if someone is stupid enough to take them.
    Discount rates exist for a reason.

  198. godot10 says:

    Ari:
    meanashell11,

    Are index ETFs like ZSP or XSP at risk for illiquidity?
    Worried because I’m heavily invested in those.

    ZSP is BMO, right. and XSP is Blackrock?

    One figures the BOC will bail out BMO (TBTF in Canada) if it gets in trouble, and the Fed will bailout Blackrock (globally TBTF)

    The potential problem for you is their (BMO and Blackrock’s) portfolio of ETF’s. Your particular EFTs will likely be money good, but you might have to wait awhile to get your money.

    I would merely point out that many of those credit ETF’s are mostly holding the debt of many of the companies whose stock is in those stock index ETF’s.

    In an economic crisis, it is always better to own financial assets as directly as possible and not through a derivative product, which exposes one to counterparties.

  199. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    verdad2.0:
    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes,

    Holland is a complete idiot if that is what he does.
    He has nothing on the farm. If any of it was worth anything it would be in Edmonton already. Edmonton have the worst set of wingers in the NHL.
    Doing nothinggets you nothing.

    The present is all that matters.Trading futures is obvious if someone is stupid enough to take them.
    Discount rates exist for a reason.

    Holland is what we thought he is. He will not be aggressive, he will not trade picks or the most promising prospects. His is a slow and steady philosophy, even if the ship he is captaining is The Titanic, because if he reduces speed just enough the iceberg might melt before impact.

    None of this should be surprising, as he has over 2 decades of track to understand him.

  200. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    meanashell11,

    godot10,

    Ari,

    – Some real good stuff on this. I will post a little bit on this with a few links. The volatility velocity and multiplying effect of ETFs, compounded by huge volume trading by quant driving models/machines will produce at some point some devastating trading patterns.

    – Often now, in extreme vol, “investors” just have to sit on the side line while these play out…

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