Hard Nose the Highway

The Edmonton Oilers are winning a large number of games by doing the hockey version of dancing on the head of a pin: Grab a couple of power-play goals, play kitty bar the door at five on five, and hope the goalie is Bernie Parent. It’s a riff off the 2016-17 team, but with the added degree of five on five difficulty.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. There is also a Christmas gift offer here.

  • New Lowetide: How many value contracts do the Oilers have and are any more on the way?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
  • Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
  • Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
  • Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
  • Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 31 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 14-15-2, 30 points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in 2016: 15-11-5, 35 points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers in 2017: 13-16-2, 28 points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in 2018: 17-12-2, 36 points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in 2019: 18-10-3, 39 points; goal differential +6

This year’s team owns the same goal differential as the 2016 club, but has been able to add three more wins and four more points from the margin. Either the Oilers are going to stretch that goal differential or there’s a market correction on the way. Either way, those 39 points are banked well before midseason. Good sign.

OILERS IN DECEMBER

  • Oilers in December 2015: 3-0-0, six points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-1, five points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in December 2017: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential +4
  • Oilers in December 2018: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in December 2019: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential -1

The goal differential is a concern, we have to assume that will improve when Kassian and Nuge return. This team hasn’t endured a poor start in five Decembers of the McDavid era.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER

  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
  • At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
  • At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 2-1-0, 4 points in 3 games

Oilers are now ahead of my overall projection but I had them 3-0-0 at this point in the month. It’s already been a strange month, like wandering through the moors of Devon early on a foggy morning.

OILERS 2019-20

All numbers via NST, five on five unless I’m talking about points.

LINE 1 James Neal-Connor McDavid-Josh Archibald played 11:28, going 7-10 Corsi, 3-8 shots, no goals, 2-1 HDSC.

James Neal had two shots, both HDSC, didn’t cash but was dangerous. I would like to see him spend 20 games with McDavid-Draisaitl. Tippett didn’t play him for the final seven minutes of the game. That’s a tell. Connor McDavid had one HDSC, several brilliant passes for chances, won seven of 14 in the dot. He was incredible on the power play, absolute fire. He needs 29 alongside at five on five to cash those passes. Josh Archibald was solid without the puck but wasn’t able to take advantage of a cherry assignment with the captain. Had a nice look but no sale. Lots of PK time for Archibald.

LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Leon Draisaitl-Sam Gagner played 10:25, going 7-11 Corsi, 4-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-4 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira had one great chance and a couple of giveaways, won a lot of battles along the wall. He and Draisaitl could play keepaway along the offensive boards until the cows come home. Leon Draisaitl was outstanding on the power play, it’s like he and McDavid, who are split apart five on five currently, are in the movie “Same Time Next Year” and making the most of each precious moment in time spent together. Maybe there’s a better movie reference here but I’m tired and it is late. Won four of nine in the dot. Sam Gagner lost his man on the disallowed goal, made some quality passes and then didn’t see the ice for the final 6:28. That’s a tell, ladies.

LINE 3 Joakim Nygard-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 11:04, going 5-11 Corsi, 0-5 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC.

Joakim Nygard’s speed was on display during the game, he drew a penalty and was part of a two promising sorties. Riley Sheahan will never score a goal as an Oiler, he gets a chance a game I swear. Poor in the faceoff circle, two giveaways, didn’t play much on the PK. I wonder if Tippett was backing him off (as he did with Klefbom) on the PK so he could run this line against Anze Kopitar (7:40). Patrick Russell had an open net chance, lots of great puck pursuit and looked solid in 2:04 with McDavid. I swear to God Tippett sees something in him.

LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 6:34, going 1-5 Corsi, 0-2 shots and 0-1 HDSC.

Markus Granlund took a penalty and didn’t move the needle offensively, but he was effective in impeding progress and spent one minute on the PK. Gaetan Haas had a strong game, blocked shots, derailed progress tipping passes and even earned 1:03 on the PP. He played 3:04 against Anze Kopitar. Alex Chiasson scored on the power play, picked up an assist and was productive on the evening.

I am finding myself noticing both Haas and Patrick Russell doing more good things and seeing more success in recent games. Both are grabbing a stronger hold on their jobs with each passing shift. Both are forechecking demons.

PAIRING ONE Kris Russell-Adam Larsson went 11-16 Corsi in 18:09, 3-6 shots, 0-1 goals, 2-3 HDSC and 1-10 offensive-defensive zone faceoffs.

Kris Russell had a strong game, drawing a penalty, forcing the play to the outside and blocking a couple of shots. Adam Larsson had three giveaways but in all honesty I thought he was outstanding. Had one great scoring chance, moved well, was physical along the wall (he was a clamp on several occasions), and blocked out his man (Doughty) beautifully on the goal against. I’m not going to say he’s back but that was a truly encouraging game. This pair faced the Kopitar line (8:49) the most, bent but did not break.

PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear went 12-13 Corsi in 15:55, 7-9 shots, no goals, 3-1 HDSC and 5-9 offensive-defensive faceoffs.

Darnell Nurse had three shots, one huge chance and a giveaway. A very physical evening, he was a hammer several times. Had a nice chance at the end of a PP early third period. A solid crosscheck on Dustin Brown while on the PK had an impact. Misfired on an empty net at the end of the game pass, causing absolute chaos over the last 90 seconds. Ethan Bear drew a penalty and made several of his patented passes, but also could be found dumping it out and playing things safe. I wonder if that was Tippett asking the skill players to be doubly sure on sorties.

PAIRING THREE Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 11:52, going 6-14 Corsi, 4-8 shots, no goals, 1-4 HDSC and 4-0 offensive-defensive faceoffs.

Oscar Klefbom played under 20 minutes overall and was less noticeable as a result. Tippett clearly reduced his PK time, that should benefit the team in the coming days. I mentioned his recent runaway pinches and those appear to have disappeared, the guy is splendid so expect him to be back playing big minutes as soon as Sunday. Persson is still matriculating, he just needs to play games and find ways to get the puck out under duress. I like him but there will be growing pains. It’s a giant leap. Klefbom is a good partner for him.

GOALIE Mikko Koskinen was the star of the show, stopping 35 of 36, .972. He made several enormous saves and the calm look returned. He made a dandy save against Dustin Brown with less than four minutes left. I’d run him again Sunday.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS

Condors (9-9-2-1) will be in tough on the road against the Stockton Heat (13-5-1-2), but Shane Starrett is back and he’s a big part of the Bakersfield team. I believe the Oilers will want to see him in Edmonton for a couple of starts this season, so it’s important for him to show well in the coming days.

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307 Responses to "Hard Nose the Highway"

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  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    19/20
    EDM Goal Share after 31 games (18-10-3)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 35-26 (57%)
    McDavid Off Ice 27-42 (39%)
    Net EV = -6

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    29-14
    Net ST +13

    Empty Net
    2-5
    Net EN = -3

    SO & PS
    2-1
    SO & PS = +1

    Net Goal Differential +5

    -6 Even strength (excluding empty net situations)
    +13 Special Teams

    I have no experience with a team that does this.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as games over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL 12
    COL 10
    WPG 7

    Pacific
    EDM 8
    ARI 7
    VGK 4

    Wildcard
    DAL 5
    MIN 3

    Out of playoffs
    VAN 3
    NSH 2
    SJS 2
    CGY 2
    CHI 0
    ANA -1
    LAK -6

    The vaccine snatchers get LAK tonight on the second of a back to back. They’ve won 3 in a row. Humph.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    This pair faced the Kopitar line (8:49) the most, bent but did not break.

    Yes.

    Some people use TOI% vs Elites to denote 1st, 2nd and 3rd pairs.

    LAK has one Elite Forward as per WoodMoney – Kopitar

    TOI vs Kopitar yesterday:
    DMen
    Player TOI
    Kris Russell 8.8
    Adam Larsson 8.6
    Darnell Nurse 5.3
    Ethan Bear 4.7
    Oscar Klefbom 4.4
    Joel Persson 3.3

    Forwards
    Patrick Russell 7.9
    Riley Sheahan 7.7
    Joakim Nygard 6.0
    Connor McDavid 4.4
    Josh Archibald 4.0
    Jujhar Khaira 3.9
    Leon Draisaitl 3.9
    Gaetan Haas 3.4
    Sam Gagner 3.2
    James Neal 3.1
    Markus Granlund 2.9
    Alex Chiasson 2.5

    Tippett likes to get clean air for his scoring lines and tried again last night.

    The problem is that there are too many Gritensity forwards on EDM.

    G found that when a Gritensity forward played with an Elite, the result was usually “middling” and not “elite” results.

    Both McDavid and Drai have bags of wet cement to play with right now.

    I wonder how Pouzar feels about Nurse being 2LD?

  4. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    WC standings using points percentage shown as games over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL12
    COL10
    WPG7

    Pacific
    EDM8
    ARI7
    VGK4

    Wildcard
    DAL5
    MIN3

    Out of playoffs
    VAN3
    NSH2
    SJS2
    CGY2
    CHI0
    ANA-1
    LAK-6

    The vaccine snatchers get LAK tonight on the second of a back to back.They’ve won 3 in a row.Humph.

    7 of Arizona’s next 8 games are against teams not currently in the playoffs.

    It will be tough to keep pace with them.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here is a list of EDM forwards who are on the WoodMoney Gritensity list based on their results over the past 2 seasons:

    Markus Granlund
    Patrick Russell
    Josh Archibald
    Riley Sheahan
    Alex Chiasson

    These players aren’t on the list because they hadn’t played in the NHL yet:
    Nygaard
    Haas

    That leaves:
    Nuge
    Khaira
    Kassian
    Gagner

    As the only 4 forwards who are “middle” tier NHLers on the team.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: 7 of Arizona’s next 8 games are against teams not currently in the playoffs.

    It will be tough to keep pace with them.

    CGY, MIN, SJS, NSH are 4 of those non-playoff teams in the next 8.

    NSH is sputtering a bit but the other 3 are making a push.

    Its the DET, NJD and CHI x 2 that are the easier ones.

  7. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: 7 of Arizona’s next 8 games are against teams not currently in the playoffs.

    It will be tough to keep pace with them.

    You should have taken the bet. I see sportsnet has the 80s all decade Canuck team listed. Starting in net King Richard on D Butcher and Lidster up front Tanti, Smyl and Gradin. My Gord this explains why you flip flop teams on a weekly basis.

  8. Clarkenstein says:

    Harpers Hair: 7 of Arizona’s next 8 games are against teams not currently in the playoffs.

    It will be tough to keep pace with them.

    It’s not AZ that is the worry. The AVS are coming hard and will win the Pacific.

  9. Clarkenstein says:

    Glad I’m not the only one that sees nothing in Sheahan. Very disappointing after 30+ games.
    It’s obvious the Forward well has run dry in Bakersfield if management thinks there is nothing better than Patrick Russell. Accomplisheds squat. The 3rd and 4th lines are putting tremendous pressure on the PP to score as they accomplish nothing.

  10. Reja says:

    Who would have bet James Neal would be 3rd in scoring after 31 games. Holland needs to help Tippett and make a move soon are Tippett’s going to be forced to continue playing rope a dope hockey to win.

  11. SkatinginSand says:

    Clarkenstein: It’s not AZ that is the worry. The AVS are coming hard and will win the Pacific.

    That would be difficult, since the AVs are in the Central.

  12. geowal says:

    SkatinginSand: That would be difficult, since the AVs are in the Central.

    Beat me to it. I was going to reference a little known crossover format

  13. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is a list of EDM forwards who are on the WoodMoney Gritensity list based on their results over the past 2 seasons:

    Markus Granlund
    Patrick Russell
    Josh Archibald
    Riley Sheahan
    Alex Chiasson

    These players aren’t on the list because they hadn’t played in the NHL yet:
    Nygaard
    Haas

    That leaves:
    Nuge
    Khaira
    Kassian
    Gagner

    As the only 4 forwards who are “middle” tier NHLers on the team.

    I am surprised Gagner and Khaira make the “middle” list. I see both as lower tier NHLers, but I know Gags still produces offense, but he sure bleeds against. Khaira is not consistent enough, I would have thought, to make it to the middle tier. He definitely occasionally flashes skill.

    Interesting.

  14. Darth Tu says:

    geowal,

    I think Clark was joking, poking a wee bit of fun at HH.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes: I am surprised Gagner and Khaira make the “middle” list.I see both as lower tier NHLers, but I know Gags still produces offense, but he sure bleeds against.Khaira is not consistent enough, I would have thought, to make it to the middle tier.He definitely occasionally flashes skill.

    Interesting.

    I honestly expected to see both in the Gritensity list.

    Sam scores too well, not sure why Khaira isn’t there, will have to dig into it.

  16. Darth Tu says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Even one extra middle winger would really help our complexion out a bit here. Is Neal still tracking as an elite?

  17. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: CGY, MIN, SJS, NSH are 4 of those non-playoff teams in the next 8.

    NSH is sputtering a bit but the other 3 are making a push.

    Its the DET, NJD and CHI x 2 that are the easier ones.

    If they win the 4 they should win and split the other 4, they’ll be rolling.

    No guarantees of course.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wonder how Pouzar feels about Nurse being 2LD?

    Of course another way to determine pairings is by the most 5v5 TOI.

    Last night we saw:
    Player TOI
    Adam Larsson 20.8
    Kris Russell 19.8
    Darnell Nurse 17.4
    Ethan Bear 16.6
    Oscar Klefbom 14.6
    Joel Persson 12.3

    Oh shit, sorry Pouzar.

    🙂

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: If they win the 4 they should win and split the other 4, they’ll be rolling.

    No guarantees of course.

    In the Mostly Goalie League they have the best all situations SV% with a ridiculous .930

    They need some goals though.

  20. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    LT,

    For me other than Bear, who has been an absolute pleasure to watch, Koskinen, Haas and both Russell’s have been really good. Other than Haas’s first game, where he really struggled, I have seen him good. He still gets knocked around too much, so I do have concerns for him, but so far so good.

    As far results go, Kris Russell has been the steadiest, most dependable Dman, even when he was playing up the depth chart with Klef early in the season. He’s been really good.

    PRuss, I expected him to make the team, but expected some offense. I still do. I predict that he will have more points than Archibald by the end of the season.

    Koskinen has been the biggest reason for this years’ success, but I think everyone here knows that.

    *****McDavid. And Draisaitl are also on this team, I know.

  21. Sierra says:

    McDavid line with 3 shots?

    3?

  22. who says:

    Holland signed a bunch of guys to 1 year, “show me ” deals. Which guys have earned a 2nd contract after 30 games?
    I’ll start.
    Haas. Looked lost at the start but has steadily improved every game. Plus NHL speed and tenacious on the forecheck and backcheck. Would like to see him on the PK. Wish he had better hands but I’d give him another contract.
    Nygaard. There’s something there but he needs to finish better. Great speed and shifty enough to create separation. Surprisingly physical. I’d offer him another 1 year deal just because of the speed.
    Sheehan. Love the PK work and he can cycle the puck in the ozone but seems very limited offensively. Leaning towards keeping because he plays center and kills penalties but it’s a toss up.
    Archibald. Love the PK work, and he brings speed and energy, but he just doesn’t have the hands. You could bring Sheehan and him back just because of their PK abilities but it really is 50/50.
    Granlund. Useful player but doesn’t do anything to stand out. Gotta believe someone from the farm takes his job next year. Pass.
    Persson. Came in with the rep of being a great puck mover and PP guy in the Swedish league but I haven’t seen it. Doesn’t help that he is slow and struggles to win 10% of his one on one puck battles. Maybe he is still adjusting. Hard Pass.
    So, to summarize. 2 keepers, 2 maybes, and 2 rejects.

  23. Bling says:

    Khaira is on pace for 17 EVG / 82 games and has established himself as an good to great PKer. That’s a pretty valuable player. I see why people think he can do even more, but what he’s doing now is elite 3rd line work.

    Watch his assist totals go up once he plays with non-Sheahan and Archibald division players on a more consistent basis. He is a good passer.

  24. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wonder how Pouzar feels about Nurse being 2LD?

    Of course another way to determine pairings is by the most 5v5 TOI.

    Last night we saw:
    PlayerTOI
    Adam Larsson20.8
    Kris Russell19.8
    Darnell Nurse17.4
    Ethan Bear16.6
    Oscar Klefbom14.6
    Joel Persson12.3

    Oh shit, sorry Pouzar.

    ?

    I have no clue what you are on about.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes:
    LT,

    For me other than Bear, who has been an absolute pleasure to watch, Koskinen, Haas and both Russell’s have been really good.Other than Haas’s first game, where he really struggled, I have seen him good.He still gets knocked around too much, so I do have concerns for him, but so far so good.

    As far results go, Kris Russell has been the steadiest, most dependable Dman, even when he was playing up the depth chart with Klef early in the season.He’s been really good.

    PRuss, I expected him to make the team, but expected some offense.I still do.I predict that he will have more points than Archibald by the end of the season.

    Koskinen has been the biggest reason for this years’ success, but I think everyone here knows that.

    *****McDavid. And Draisaitl are also on this team, I know.

    Haha. I think you have described things well and Tippett pretty much agrees with you. Getting Haas some PP time is a reward, getting Patrick Russell out there in the big part of the game is a major tell. My goodness.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Bling:
    Khaira is on pace for 17 EVG / 82 games and has established himself as an good to great PKer. That’s a pretty valuable player. I see why people think he can do even more, but what he’s doing now is elite 3rd line work.

    Watch his assist totals go up once he plays with non-Sheahan and Archibald division players on a more consistent basis. He is a good passer.

    If this team gets a strong No. 3 center, Khaira-that guy could be money.

  27. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    19/20
    EDM Goal Share after 31 games (18-10-3)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 35-26 (57%)
    McDavid Off Ice 27-42 (39%)
    Net EV = -6

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    29-14
    Net ST +13

    Empty Net
    2-5
    Net EN = -3

    SO & PS
    2-1
    SO & PS = +1

    Net Goal Differential +5

    -6 Even strength (excluding empty net situations)
    +13 Special Teams

    I have no experience with a team that does this.

    Having a bad team is no excuse for losing. I’m glad Tippett believes this. McLellan didn’t. Find a damn way to win or get a Bettman point.

    LA can’t score. So Tippett played rope-a-dope. Scoring early on the PP aided that effort. LA only scores when the other team makes mistakes, like the first two games against Edmonton.

  28. Bling says:

    LT, I’m a bit of a damn the torpedos, live for today type, and maybe that bleeds over into hockey.

    I would absolutely upgrade 3C this year.

    The team is on the cusp, the right guy (Pageau) is available, and you have the assets to get the deal done while leaving the elite cluster (Broberg, Samorukov, Bouchard) intact. First round draft pick? Throw that thing in the pot!

    You don’t know how much longer you have Nuge and Larsson around.

    Just go for it.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Darth Tu:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Even one extra middle winger would really help our complexion out a bit here. Is Neal still tracking as an elite?

    Not at my PC now but he wasn’t Elite iirc

    His possession rates are too poor historical to be “elite” as per Woodmoney

  30. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This pair faced the Kopitar line (8:49) the most, bent but did not break.

    Yes.

    Some people use TOI% vs Elites to denote 1st, 2nd and 3rd pairs.

    LAK has one Elite Forward as per WoodMoney – Kopitar

    TOI vs Kopitar yesterday:
    DMen
    PlayerTOI
    Kris Russell8.8
    Adam Larsson8.6
    Darnell Nurse5.3
    Ethan Bear4.7
    Oscar Klefbom4.4
    Joel Persson3.3

    Forwards
    Patrick Russell7.9
    Riley Sheahan7.7
    Joakim Nygard6.0
    Connor McDavid4.4
    Josh Archibald4.0
    Jujhar Khaira3.9
    Leon Draisaitl3.9
    Gaetan Haas3.4
    Sam Gagner3.2
    James Neal3.1
    Markus Granlund2.9
    Alex Chiasson2.5

    Tippett likes to get clean air for his scoring lines and tried again last night.

    The problem is that there are too many Gritensity forwards on EDM.

    G found that when a Gritensity forward played with an Elite, the result was usually “middling” and not “elite” results.

    Both McDavid and Drai have bags of wet cement to play with right now.

    I wonder how Pouzar feels about Nurse being 2LD?

    Nurse and Bear play with McDavid. Help him with good defensemen instead of wingers.

    Russell and Larsson are good enough to play rope-a-dope with Sheahan against Kopitar, which seemed like the plan.

    And hope Klefbom and Persson can create something in softer minutes.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Bling:
    LT, I’m a bit of a damn the torpedos, live for today type, and maybe that bleeds over into hockey.

    I would absolutely upgrade 3C this year.

    The team is on the cusp, the right guy (Pageau) is available, and you have the assets to get the deal done while leaving the elite cluster (Broberg, Samorukov, Bouchard) intact. First round draft pick? Throw that thing in the pot!

    You don’t know how much longer you have Nuge and Larsson around.

    Just go for it.

    I think Holland is making those calculations now but his recent avail sounded like it would be a deal mae closer to deadline. The Hall deal may come sooner, and that could impact but that scrum suggested to me February will be the reckoning.

  32. who says:

    Bling:
    LT, I’m a bit of a damn the torpedos, live for today type, and maybe that bleeds over into hockey.

    I would absolutely upgrade 3C this year.

    The team is on the cusp, the right guy (Pageau) is available, and you have the assets to get the deal done while leaving the elite cluster (Broberg, Samorukov, Bouchard) intact. First round draft pick? Throw that thing in the pot!

    You don’t know how much longer you have Nuge and Larsson around.

    Just go for it.

    Are you suggesting we use a 1st rd pick to acquire Pageau as a rental? I can’t agree with that.
    I also think the teams biggest need is an offensive winger. If we can create a legit 2nd scoring line I think we can get by with the bottom six we currently have.
    I would consider using the 1st on a legit offensive winger, but only a younger player with term left on his contract. At least 3 more years after this one.

  33. hunter1909 says:

    Incredible to think they’re still in 1st place even if it looks like they’re standing on banana peels.

  34. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    godot10,

    Todd suggested after last nights game that the Kings we’re getting “better at losing”. I might suggest this was Edmonton’s mentality for far too long.

  35. godot10 says:

    hunter1909:
    Incredible to think they’re still in 1st place even if it looks like they’re standing on banana peels.

    See the New England Patriots this season. A team with no offense has ten wins and two losses.

  36. Reja says:

    who: Are you suggesting we use a 1st rd pick to acquire Pageau as a rental? I can’t agree with that.
    I also think the teams biggest need is an offensive winger. If we can create a legit 2nd scoring line I think we can get by with the bottom six we currently have.
    I would consider using the 1st on a legit offensive winger, but only a younger player with term left on his contract. At least 3 more years after this one.

    Josh Johnson in Ohio is my target start the conversation with Seth’s little brother and Continue it with JP. The Jackets aren’t making the playoffs this year.

  37. Darth Tu says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I thought so – add him to the middling group then. So, another middle class winger on top of Neal, Kassian, Gagner and Khaira.

    That Gagner placement surprises me, would love to know why he’s getting the bump from the math.

  38. who says:

    Reja: Josh Johnson in Ohio is my target start the conversation with Seth’s little brother and Continue it with JP. The Jackets aren’t making the playoffs this year.

    Huh?

  39. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think Tippet has done a fine job with the roster. When this team wants, they can be possession demons. They forecheck like hell and keep the opposition hemmed in. But too many of these guys have hands of stone. They either miss the net completely or don’t even register a shot. Multiple times last night the boys had great ozone pressure and didn’t even register a shot.

    I was baffled after the first period that we were outshot 18-10. I thought we dominated possession and spent the majority of time in the ozone. Lots of effort and hustle, and I think the coach is responsible for this, but not much happening in terms of actual production.

    Holland needs to acquire two more forwards. And not of the rental variety. Easier said than done, but he needs to find a way.

  40. McNuge93 says:

    who:
    Holland signed a bunch of guys to 1 year, “show me ” deals. Which guys have earned a 2nd contract after 30 games?
    I’ll start.
    Haas. Looked lost at the start but has steadily improved every game. Plus NHL speed and tenacious on the forecheck and backcheck. Would like to see him on the PK. Wish he had better hands but I’d give him another contract.
    Nygaard. There’s something there but he needs to finish better. Great speed and shifty enough to create separation. Surprisingly physical. I’d offer him another 1 year deal just because of the speed.
    Sheehan. Love the PK work and he can cycle the puck in the ozone but seems very limited offensively. Leaning towards keeping because he plays center and kills penalties but it’s a toss up.
    Archibald. Love the PK work, and he brings speed and energy, but he just doesn’t have the hands. You could bring Sheehan and him back just because of their PK abilities but it really is 50/50.
    Granlund. Useful player but doesn’t do anything to stand out. Gotta believe someone from the farm takes his job next year. Pass.
    Persson. Came in with the rep of being a great puck mover and PP guy in the Swedish league but I haven’t seen it. Doesn’t help that he is slow and struggles to win 10% of his one on one puck battles. Maybe he is still adjusting. Hard Pass.
    So, to summarize. 2 keepers, 2 maybes, and 2 rejects.

    Good summary. The problem with keeping both Haas and Sheahan is they are both 4Cs. We need to add a good 3C and could drop either of Haas or Sheahan.

    Re Persson, if we keep Benning then Persson is probably expendable. But if we trade or don’t sign Benning then maybe you keep Persson as 6 or 7D or 8D. I wouldn’t assume Bouchard is automatic for the NHL next year. Make him really force his way onto the roster.

  41. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Holland needs to acquire two more forwards.

    How does Nuge and Kassian sound? joking…

    What do lines look like when they get back?

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Oilers wake up back in first place in the Pacific Division.

    That was not a pretty game last night, not at all, but I will not get on board with the “only beat the Kings 2-1 verbal” – as Tippett says, “its hard to win in this league”.

    Mikko came up huge when the team needed him. I won’t dwell but there was one aspect of his game where something was going on last night and hopefully it gets fixed at it caused two pucks in the net.

    I wonder if he gets the game tomorrow? I can see Tippett going back to Smith for one.

  43. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Oilers wake up back in first place in the Pacific Division.

    That was not a pretty game last night, not at all, but I will not get on board with the “only beat the Kings 2-1 verbal” – as Tippett says, “its hard to win in this league”.

    Mikko came up huge when the team needed him. I won’t dwell but there was one aspect of his game where something was going on last night and hopefully it gets fixed at it caused two pucks in the net.

    I wonder if he gets the game tomorrow? I can see Tippett going back to Smith for one.

    It was ugly but I knew going in it was going to be tough.
    Kings are a load 5v5.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    FYI, Alan, Vinny Deharnais was assigned to Wichita last week.

  45. Pouzar says:

    What I do know is Khaira-Sheahan-Archie can’t be a thing anymore.

  46. Brantford Boy says:

    LT on Neal: “Tippett didn’t play him for the final seven minutes of the game. That’s a tell.”

    Pretty sure the message was Lucic has more goals than you in December and he’s nipping at your heals… on pace for 3 goals, half of last years total, thank you Mr. Holland 🙂

    Pleased with the overall game but my new TV almost had an object fly through the screen on that Nurse fake pass, half spin, errant shot turnover (or whatever that was) at the end of the game… my goodness!

  47. Pouzar says:

    McNuge93: he problem with keeping both Haas and Sheahan is they are both 4Cs.

    Don’t agree with this at all. Sheahan can’t piss a drop and is a PK specialist at this point.
    The Haas line is kickin butt against the middle/grits of the NHL. I dunno where that falls on the “line continuum” but they are doing their job 5v5.

  48. John Chambers says:

    Pouzar: How does Nuge and Kassian sound? joking…

    What do lines look like when they get back?

    Phase 1 – get back to a healthy starting lineup (December)

    Phase 2 – call up Benson (maybe Marody) to evaluate internal depth (January)

    Phase 3 – depending on position within the standings, make a trade(s) to give this team a chance to escape the weak Pacific division.

    A talented Centre and, as always, speed and skill at the wing.

  49. Pouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    What I do know is Khaira-Sheahan-Archie can’t be a thing anymore.

    Man are Khaira-Sheahan Oil and Water.

    Sheahan is 52% xGF without Khaira and 39% with him.

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    The disallowed goal was scored by Persson’s man. Full stop.

  51. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here is a list of EDM forwards who are on the WoodMoney Gritensity list based on their results over the past 2 seasons:

    Markus Granlund
    Patrick Russell
    Josh Archibald
    Riley Sheahan
    Alex Chiasson

    These players aren’t on the list because they hadn’t played in the NHL yet:
    Nygaard
    Haas

    That leaves:
    Nuge
    Khaira
    Kassian
    Gagner

    As the only 4 forwards who are “middle” tier NHLers on the team.

    Thanks for sharing. Clearly this isn’t good.

    Do you have (or have relatively easy access to) the proportion of forwards league wide who fall into each category?

    I think there are only ~2 elite forwards per team, so most top 6 players fall into the middle tier. I don’t have a good feel for the middle/gritensity divide though.

    How many middle/gritensity forwards does the average team have (for context with our Oilers)?

  52. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Reja: You should have taken the bet. I see sportsnet has the 80s all decade Canuck team listed. Starting in net King Richard on D Butcher and Lidster up front Tanti, Smyl and Gradin. My Gord this explains why you flip flop teams on a weekly basis.

    My season ticket buddies & I used to call him Garth “The” Butcher.

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wonder how Pouzar feels about Nurse being 2LD?

    Of course another way to determine pairings is by the most 5v5 TOI.

    Last night we saw:
    PlayerTOI
    Adam Larsson20.8
    Kris Russell19.8
    Darnell Nurse17.4
    Ethan Bear16.6
    Oscar Klefbom14.6
    Joel Persson12.3

    Oh shit, sorry Pouzar.

    I wonder how Woodguy feels about K.Russell being 1LD? ?

  54. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I wonder how Pouzar feels about Nurse being 2LD?

    Of course another way to determine pairings is by the most 5v5 TOI.

    Last night we saw:
    PlayerTOI
    Adam Larsson20.8
    Kris Russell19.8
    Darnell Nurse17.4
    Ethan Bear16.6
    Oscar Klefbom14.6
    Joel Persson12.3

    Oh shit, sorry Pouzar.

    I think Bear has looked just a touch slower lately. I think he isn’t used to the work load and it is his TOI that Tippett is trying to lower. Nurse is collateral.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Today is a day where the out of town scoreboard will be a fun one to watch as, in pretty much every game involving a Western Conference team, there is a clear outcome that benefits the Oilers. Most teams playing the East.

  56. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I wonder how Woodguy feels about K.Russell being 1LD? ?

    Or Klef at 3LD…now that cuts deep!

  57. defmn says:

    Lowetide: I think Holland is making those calculations now but his recent avail sounded like it would be a deal mae closer to deadline. The Hall deal may come sooner, and that could impact but that scrum suggested to me February will be the reckoning.

    And I agree with that. The team is outperforming expectations. If I am Holland I want to see more before mortgaging any of the future on a present that may be more mirage than reality.

    Hard to be patient after all this time but the current manner of winning games doesn’t look to me like it translates well to the playoffs.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Darth Tu:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I thought so – add him to the middling group then. So, another middle class winger on top of Neal, Kassian, Gagner and Khaira.

    That Gagner placement surprises me, would love to know why he’s getting the bump from the math.

    I wouldn’t say its a bump.

    Middle players are players who don’t satisfy either the Elite criteria or the Gritensity criteria.

    We have 4 criteria that a player needs to fulfill to be an Elite Forward:

    1) Points/60 > 2.21 (all game states)
    2) Time on ice per game > 75th percentile
    3) Relative Corsi > 40th percentile
    4) Relative Dangerous Fenwick > 40th percentile

    If a player satisfies all 4, they are “Elite”

    We have 3 criteria that determines if a player is Gritensity. They only have to satisfy one of these criteria to be Gritenisty, not all 3.

    1) All players who played at least 20 games in the sample and was bottom 16.7 percentile (~-1SD) in Relative Corsi
    2) All players who’s points per 60 were in the bottom 16.7% percentile. (~-1SD)
    3) All players in the bottom 10% of Time On Ice per game.

    None of Khaira, Nuge, Neal, Kassian or Goneyay satisfied all of the Elite criteria, nor did they satisfy any of the Gritensity criteria, so they are “middle”

    Our philosophy was to categorize all players over 1 Standard Deviation from a “player mean” as Elite and all players under 1 Standard Deviation from “player mean” as Gritensity.

    Here’s the write up for more detail: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

  59. v4ance says:

    Bling:
    LT, I’m a bit of a damn the torpedos, live for today type, and maybe that bleeds over into hockey.

    I would absolutely upgrade 3C this year.

    The team is on the cusp, the right guy (Pageau) is available, and you have the assets to get the deal done while leaving the elite cluster (Broberg, Samorukov, Bouchard) intact. First round draft pick? Throw that thing in the pot!

    You don’t know how much longer you have Nuge and Larsson around.

    Just go for it.

    The other thing is that Leon and Connor are doing something historic in terms of production for a duo. Their scoring synergy hasn’t been seen since Lemieux/Jagr or Gretzky/Kurri. We almost take it for granted that they’ll be this good year after year.

    Reasonable expectations should be 30+ goals for both with McDavid getting 120 pts and Drai 80 but they’re both blowing waaay past that. So if you aren’t going to get this performance repeated, maybe take a chance and go for it this year?

    ***

    In terms of who to acquire, my thoughts have changed slightly. I think we either go big for Hall, a first liner who we’ll slot on the 2nd line or two lesser forwards; one top 6 scorer and a #3C. If the Hall transaction is consummated weeks earlier than the trade deadline, then plan B is automatically the path forward if we’re not the winner of the Hall sweepstakes.

  60. Ryan says:

    Following the Hall rumors, it looks like Shero has lost his mind.

    He allegedly wants Girard or Byram from Colorado.

    Girard is 21 and leads their team in 5v5 Toi/60. Plays top pairing…

    Byram is a 4rth overall, who curiously has seen a steep drop off in his goals/game rate and points this season.

    What happened to Bowen Byram this season?

  61. Pouzar says:

    Ryan: Girard is 21 and leads their team in 5v5 Toi/60. Plays top pairing…

    You don’t say…

  62. Darth Tu says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks – that makes things a lot clearer for me!

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bottom 6 last night:

    Nygard 0 shots
    Sheahan 0 shots
    P.Russell 0 shots

    Granlund 0 shots
    Haas 0 shots
    Chiasson 2 shots (both on PP)

  64. flyfish1168 says:

    Just watch Jumbo Joe one punch Mrazek. Quite the display of one punch power

  65. SkatinginSand says:

    For those that are on their knees nightly, promising the Hockey Gods their firstborn son for a return of Taylor Hall, Scott Burnside has an interesting take on him in “The Athletic”.

    Takeaway, many GMs are “meh” on him, they don’t see him as a long term game changer, who will be greatly overpaid for his declining years.

  66. Glovjuice says:

    Good write up on the latest Tool album a few days ago, Bruce. Agreed, great album and one of my only two 5-star albums of the year along with Lana Del Rey’s Norman F*****g Rockwell. I give very few albums five stars and only do so for albums that I think will hold up for years. Both albums also have fantastic engineering and production. The Tool production is groundbreaking – actually allows real good bookshelf speakers (Sonus Faber Concertinos) with a low end of only 55 Hz sound very bass-ey.

    I give very few albums 6 stars. Only the giant albums receive this grade (e.g., Sticky Fingers, The Wall, Revolver, Moving Pictures, Station to Station, Pornography, The Velvet Underground etc.).

    Lots of other great tunes / albums this year though:

    Lark and All Mirrors off of Angel Olsen’s All Mirrors album are incredibly epic.

    Cattails off of Big Thief’s UFOF is fantastic.

    Hitch Hikin’ off Bruce Springsteen’s Western Stars is one of my all time favs.

    The latest album Phantom Rhythm from Japan’s Gong Gong Gong is super neat.

    The album Sulphur English from Inter Arma is ultra heavy doom/death metal and not for all tastes but is 4 stars.

    Age of Excuse from Poland’s Mgta is black metal and not for all tastes of course but is mesmerizing and trance inducing.

    The EP Mientras Esperanza from shoegaze band Mint Field is great contemporary shoegaze as is their 18′ album Pasar de las Lucas.

    More black metal from Murg with their melodic and ripping Stevan.

    Yes, the new The National with all the babes singing is excellent as well.

    Yes, I hate the production on the new Parquet Courts but luv Freebird II.

    The new The Raconteurs album Help Us Stranger is fantastic and really well produced for those stereo buffs.

    The latest from Sunn O))) Life Metal is funeral doom but ssooooooo fucking heavy.

    Taylor Swifts performance of Lover on SNL off her latest was glorious.

    The two 19′ albums (the Destroyer 1 and 2) from Canadian dark-electronic band TR/ST are great.

    The track Wonder off of prog/pop band Wand’s latest Laughing Matter is glorious and makes we want to camp and drink and get fucked up and be happy.

    Oh, and everyone here who likes 90’s ‘alternative/shoegaze/grundge’ must check out the long lost and criminally unknown Shoulder Voices from a band called Rollerskate Skinny. I promise you will lose your mind with how good it is.

  67. Bling says:

    who: Are you suggesting we use a 1st rd pick to acquire Pageau as a rental? I can’t agree with that.
    I also think the teams biggest need is an offensive winger. If we can create a legit 2nd scoring line I think we can get by with the bottom six we currently have.
    I would consider using the 1st on a legit offensive winger, but only a younger player with term left on his contract. At least 3 more years after this one.

    Yes.

    Yes 100 times.

    Pageau instantly makes the third line a credible threat. He can push the river and elevate his linemates while providing more cover for the Nuge and McDavid/Drai lines. Not to mention the fact that he provides insurance in the event of a top 6 injury.

    At some point you have to make a move like this to put the team over the top. Do you want to make that move in two years, when Larsson, Kassian and Nuge are potentially gone, or do you make it right now, in the midst of historic seasons by your two top forwards?

    Holland should pull the trigger. That gives the team time to gel and for chemistry to develop well ahead of the playoffs. If he has to overpay a little, fine. The Oilers with Pageau are a top 3 threat for the Cup, IMO.

  68. v4ance says:

    ArmchairGM:
    The disallowed goal was scored by Persson’s man. Full stop.

    Kempe came across the blue line with speed with Klefbom fronting him and Drai backchecking. At that point he made a hard cut to the middle and lost Klefbom who could only wave his stick at him.

    The camera from behind the net showed Persson taking Kempe and trying to block the shot. Lisotte was wide of Gagner at the blue line but jumped inside him and beat him to the net and the rebound. If Persson went and took Lisotte, Kempe would have had a free path to the net.

    Lisotte was Gagner’s man and your’re totally wrong.

    http://www.dtmts.com/?id=2019020450&vid=4767801&sid=4767799&eid=4767801
    (3:20 mark of the video)

  69. yeraslob says:

    Reja: You should have taken the bet. I see sportsnet has the 80s all decade Canuck team listed. Starting in net King Richard on D Butcher and Lidster up front Tanti, Smyl and Gradin. My Gord this explains why you flip flop teams on a weekly basis.

    What… no Petri Skriko?

  70. jp says:

    Pouzar: Don’t agree with this at all. Sheahan can’t piss a drop and is a PK specialist at this point.
    The Haas line is kickin butt against the middle/grits of the NHL. I dunno where that falls on the “line continuum” but they are doing their job 5v5.

    I agree, but with the caveat that Sheahan is playing much more difficult minutes (by TOI vs elites and zone starts).

    The larger question for me is why they both couldn’t return. Teams need 5 centers, I see no reason these two couldn’t be be #4 and #5. Assuming of course that they’d both be signed for $1M or less (a safe assumption I think!).

  71. Bling says:

    v4ance: The other thing is that Leon and Connor are doing something historic in terms of production for a duo.Their scoring synergy hasn’t been seen since Lemieux/Jagr or Gretzky/Kurri.We almost take it for granted that they’ll be this good year after year.

    Reasonable expectations should be 30+ goals for both with McDavid getting 120 pts and Drai 80 but they’re both blowing waaay past that.So if you aren’t going to get this performance repeated, maybetake a chance and go for it this year?

    ***

    In terms of who to acquire, my thoughts have changed slightly.I think we either go big for Hall, a first liner who we’ll slot on the 2nd line or two lesser forwards; one top 6 scorer and a #3C.If the Hall transaction is consummated weeks earlier than the trade deadline, then plan B is automatically the path forward if we’re not the winner of the Hall sweepstakes.

    If Shero is asking for an elite cluster prospect for Hall, I walk away. The first rounder is fine, as is any second tier prospect.

    Can’t go wrong with either Pageau or Hall, but the bottom line is that Holland must add.

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Nurse and Bear play with McDavid.Help him with good defensemen instead of wingers.

    Russell and Larsson are good enough to play rope-a-dope with Sheahan against Kopitar, which seemed like the plan.

    And hope Klefbom and Persson can create something in softer minutes.

    I had no idea that Tippett was doing it to this extreme.

    Dmen TOI with McDavid last night:

    Player TOI
    Darnell Nurse 13.6
    Ethan Bear 12.9
    Kris Russell 3.6
    Adam Larsson 2.9
    Oscar Klefbom 0.9
    Joel Persson 0.5

    That’s incredible dedication by a coach to a 5 man unit.

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I wonder how Woodguy feels about K.Russell being 1LD?

    You know I’ve always liked him Bruce.

    …..
    …..

    As 3LD.

    🙂

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Or Klef at 3LD…now that cuts deep!

    Dreamy and Nurse are both my children whom I love dearly.

  75. Jethro Tull says:

    Bling: Yes.

    Yes 100 times.

    Pageau instantly makes the third line a credible threat. He can push the river and elevate his linemates while providing more cover for the Nuge and McDavid/Drai lines. Not to mention the fact that he provides insurance in the event of a top 6 injury.

    At some point you have to make a move like this to put the team over the top. Do you want to make that move in two years, when Larsson, Kassian and Nuge are potentially gone, or do you make it right now, in the midst of historic seasons by your two top forwards?

    Holland should pull the trigger. That gives the team time to gel and for chemistry to develop well ahead of the playoffs. If he has to overpay a little, fine. The Oilers with Pageau are a top 3 threat for the Cup, IMO.

    I brought this paradox up when Ken was first hired. Does he slow play development (which is his MO), showing Connor and Drai that no matter how well they play, the rest of the team will not be competitive until 3yrs at the earliest, or does he accept that the team may have been a little better than previously thought and adjust his plan?

    The situation is set up for a confirmation bias event of epic scale. If he does nothing, and the Oilers drop off, he will say “see, we weren’t ready.” If he does nothing and they keep pace, once again, he’ll sell it as him doing the right things whilst building for the future.

    He literally can’t lose. I hope he sees the opportunity here.

    BTW, was that a $6m+ game by Nurse last night? I like him, but the single events are beginning to add up.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I had no idea that Tippett was doing it to this extreme.

    Dmen TOI with McDavid last night:

    PlayerTOI
    Darnell Nurse13.6
    Ethan Bear12.9
    Kris Russell3.6
    Adam Larsson2.9
    Oscar Klefbom0.9
    Joel Persson0.5

    That’s incredible dedication by a coach to a 5 man unit.

    Dmen TOI with Sheahan:

    Player TOI
    Adam Larsson 10.9
    Kris Russell 9.9
    Oscar Klefbom 2.3
    Darnell Nurse 2.2
    Ethan Bear 2.0
    Joel Persson 1.3

    More 5 man units for you….gonna do Drai and Haas next, probably Klef for both

  77. jp says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes: I am surprised Gagner and Khaira make the “middle” list.I see both as lower tier NHLers, but I know Gags still produces offense, but he sure bleeds against.Khaira is not consistent enough, I would have thought, to make it to the middle tier.He definitely occasionally flashes skill.

    Interesting.

    Woodguy v2.0: I honestly expected to see both in the Gritensity list.

    Sam scores too well, not sure why Khaira isn’t there, will have to dig into it.

    Darth Tu:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    That Gagner placement surprises me, would love to know why he’s getting the bump from the math.

    Gagner is interesting here. Woodguy showed us what goes into placing players in the elite or gritensity groups.

    Gagner does produce offense, and he’s actually looked very good by most metrics this year.

    In addition to 1.97 5v5 P/60, he leads the Oilers in basically every category aside from GF% (tops in CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%, SCF%, HDCF%, DFF%). His GF% is suffering because of his .892 on ice SV% and 960 PDO.

    His “against” measures are all good as well so he hasn’t been bleeding anything except due to on ice SV%. This year at least.

  78. Bruce McCurdy says:

    flyfish1168:
    Just watch Jumbo Joe one punch Mrazek. Quite the display of one punch power

    Loved how the ‘canes painted an outline of Mrazek’s body at the “crime scene” for yesterday’s practice. That’s a team that knows how to have fun.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Dmen TOI with Sheahan:

    PlayerTOI
    Adam Larsson10.9
    Kris Russell9.9
    Oscar Klefbom2.3
    Darnell Nurse2.2
    Ethan Bear2.0
    Joel Persson1.3

    More 5 man units for you….gonna do Drai and Haas next, probably Klef for both

    This is Goneyay. Did it to remove the 2:56 that Drai played with McDavid

    Player TOI
    Oscar Klefbom 8.2
    Joel Persson 7.8
    Adam Larsson 3.1
    Kris Russell 2.4
    Darnell Nurse 2.1
    Ethan Bear 1.7

    Haas
    Player TOI
    Adam Larsson 5.2
    Kris Russell 5.0
    Joel Persson 3.0
    Oscar Klefbom 3.0
    Darnell Nurse 0.7
    Ethan Bear 0.5

    I guess it wasn’t Klef for both.

    This is interesting stuff.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klef and Neal not on ice this morning. Likely maintenance says Wilkins (although with Klef’s lowest TOI of the year last night, I wonder if he’s battling something).

    Drai/McDavid/Kass together so we are likely to see Zack back which is huge.

    Khaira/Nuge/Gagner together – massive.

  81. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Glovjuice,

    Good stuff, GJ, i’d hoped you would have caught that.

    My hat is off to you at the breadth of your musical exploration and knowledge. Formsure I am gonna check out that Lana Del Rey album, have seen it mentioned on a number of “Best of 2019” lists.

  82. who says:

    Bling: Yes.

    Yes 100 times.

    Pageau instantly makes the third line a credible threat. He can push the river and elevate his linemates while providing more cover for the Nuge and McDavid/Drai lines. Not to mention the fact that he provides insurance in the event of a top 6 injury.

    At some point you have to make a move like this to put the team over the top. Do you want to make that move in two years, when Larsson, Kassian and Nuge are potentially gone, or do you make it right now, in the midst of historic seasons by your two top forwards?

    Holland should pull the trigger. That gives the team time to gel and for chemistry to develop well ahead of the playoffs. If he has to overpay a little, fine. The Oilers with Pageau are a top 3 threat for the Cup, IMO.

    I don’t think Pageau is enough to turn this team into a cup contender.
    Therefore I’m not willing to give up a first for his rental. I do admit I have a bias against rentals. Would much rather give up more assets for a young player with term.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    From Juha Rapanen (Dobber Prospects Writter):

    Puljujärvi has had a solid game today but really not much help from his linemates. Really good penalty kill shift where he forced a take away and was open for a break away but never got the pass from Aku Räty

    He was basically ahead of plays today with his skating. No one was able to follow. Ofcourse he could have adjusted but you can see him getting frustrated

  84. who says:

    v4ance: Kempe came across the blue line with speed with Klefbom fronting him and Drai backchecking.At that point he made a hard cut to the middle and lost Klefbom who could only wave his stick at him.

    The camera from behind the net showed Persson taking Kempe and trying to block the shot. Lisotte was wide of Gagner at the blue line but jumped inside him and beat him to the net and the rebound.If Persson went and took Lisotte, Kempe would have had a free path to the net.

    Lisotte was Gagner’s man and your’re totally wrong.

    http://www.dtmts.com/?id=2019020450&vid=4767801&sid=4767799&eid=4767801
    (3:20 mark of the video)

    That’s the way I saw it.
    But if you back it up Kempe was Klefboms man at the blueline. Once Klefbom got beat Persson was really in no man’s land. It was basically a 2 on 1 from there.

  85. Ryan says:

    who: I don’t think Pageau is enough to turn this team into a cup contender.
    Therefore I’m not willing to give up a first for his rental. I do admit I have a bias against rentals. Would much rather give up more assets for a young player with term.

    Maybe a somewhat projectable trade like for an Adrian Kempe or similar.

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: Thanks for sharing. Clearly this isn’t good.

    Do you have (or have relatively easy access to) the proportion of forwards league wide who fall into each category?

    I think there are only ~2 elite forwards per team, so most top 6 players fall into the middle tier. I don’t have a good feel for the middle/gritensity divide though.

    How many middle/gritensity forwards does the average team have (for context with our Oilers)?

    Here it is from our first write up (the number of players vary per year but the TOI% is pretty stable)


    FINAL PLAYER AND TOI COUNTS FOR EACH QoC RANK
    As a sanity check on the sizes of the lists generated we took a look at the total TOI for each of the lists.

    Elite – 60 players. Total Time on Ice = 9,941,808 seconds (~18% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    Middle – 383 forwards. Total Time on Ice = 35,581,421 seconds (~64% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    Gritensity – 231 forwards. Total Time on Ice = 9,709,954 seconds (~18% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    This is a really cool result because we started this whole process by saying “Why don’t we separate out everyone to the right of 1 Standard Deviation (SD) and everyone to the left of 1SD and make 3 columns of players then run everyone’s numbers against those 3 groups.

    It looks like we actually got there as 16.7% represents ~1SD for a normal distribution and we ended up with 18% of the TOI at the top and 18% of the TOI at the bottom for our quasi-normal distribution of TOI.

    Cool.

    Here’s the whole write up: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    It was an important realization for us that while there are lots of “gritensity” players, they still only make up ~17% of total 5v5 TOI.

    The bottom of every team’s roster is in constant flux all season.

  87. Pouzar says:

    SkatinginSand:
    For those that are on their knees nightly, promising the Hockey Gods their firstborn son for a return of Taylor Hall, Scott Burnside has an interesting take on him in “The Athletic”.

    Takeaway, many GMs are “meh” on him, they don’t see him as a long term game changer, who will be greatly overpaid for his declining years.

    interesting…will have to check it out.

  88. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is Goneyay.Did it to remove the 2:56 that Drai played with McDavid

    PlayerTOI
    Oscar Klefbom8.2
    Joel Persson7.8
    Adam Larsson3.1
    Kris Russell2.4
    Darnell Nurse2.1
    Ethan Bear1.7

    Haas
    PlayerTOI
    Adam Larsson5.2
    Kris Russell5.0
    Joel Persson3.0
    Oscar Klefbom3.0
    Darnell Nurse0.7
    Ethan Bear0.5

    I guess it wasn’t Klef for both.

    This is interesting stuff.

    K.Russell-Larsson propping up the bottom 6 last night, partial explanation for the shots totals I mentioned earlier. But give both F and D credit, those guys saw a tonne of Kopitar, Doughty and friends last night and largely held their own.

    As for 29 + 97 together, there was one shining moment in the third where Drai got the puck inside his own blueline, RW side, & flipped a high diagonal backhand over a jumping King & then down & into the path of a streaking McD at the far blueline, then busted ass up the ice to take the return pass & let go a one-time bullet from the slot that may have been Quick’s best stop of the night. Leon is such an inventive passer & does some of his best work from his own side of centre to spring teammates, most often Connor. Looking forward to their pending reunion, & given the Oilers have scored 3 goals at evens over their last 4 games it can’t come soon enough.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Nugent-Bowman:

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Khaira-RNH-Gagner
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
    (Cave and P. Russell rotating in)
    Granlund-Sheahan-Archibald

    Nurse-Bear
    Russell-Larsson
    Manning-Persson

    Smith in the starter’s net

    No Klefbom, Neal, Benning. (Benning is on IR.)

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    I didn’t think that Koskinen would start four in a row. He did fall apart last year when overplayed so I’m cool with a night off (but he should get the following game unless Smith steals it):

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Klef and Neal not on ice this morning.Likely maintenance says Wilkins (although with Klef’s lowest TOI of the year last night, I wonder if he’s battling something).

    Drai/McDavid/Kass together so we are likely to see Zack back which is huge.

    Khaira/Nuge/Gagner together – massive.

    I had read that Neal cracked/broke a toe ~ 10 games ago when he blocked a shot.

    He can play on it but its not a fun thing to play on.

  92. jp says:

    who: I don’t think Pageau is enough to turn this team into a cup contender.
    Therefore I’m not willing to give up a first for his rental. I do admit I have a bias against rentals. Would much rather give up more assets for a young player with term.

    I don’t think Holland should (or will) give up significant assets for any rental who isn’t going to re-sign (that is, the player would not be a rental at all).

    I absolutely wouldn’t trade a 1st (this year or next) for Hall or Pageau if there’s risk of them walking in the summer.

  93. flyfish1168 says:

    jp: I agree, but with the caveat that Sheahan is playing much more difficult minutes (by TOI vs elites and zone starts).

    The larger question for me is why they both couldn’t return. Teams need 5 centers, I see no reason these two couldn’t be be #4 and #5. Assuming of course that they’d both be signed for $1M or less (a safe assumption I think!).

    Sheahan is a pylon. I think with the year we are having there will be other suitors what would like to come play for our team

  94. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bling: Yes.

    Yes 100 times.

    Pageau instantly makes the third line a credible threat. He can push the river and elevate his linemates while providing more cover for the Nuge and McDavid/Drai lines. Not to mention the fact that he provides insurance in the event of a top 6 injury.

    At some point you have to make a move like this to put the team over the top. Do you want to make that move in two years, when Larsson, Kassian and Nuge are potentially gone, or do you make it right now, in the midst of historic seasons by your two top forwards?

    Holland should pull the trigger. That gives the team time to gel and for chemistry to develop well ahead of the playoffs. If he has to overpay a little, fine. The Oilers with Pageau are a top 3 threat for the Cup, IMO.

    The Canucks acquired JT Miller for a first rounder and he was signed for multiple years at a reasonable contract. Miller has scored at least 20 goals every year except one and is a year younger. Why would we use a first rounder in a better draft year for a rental? This team is not in a position to acquire a rental. We need two players long term.

  95. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Klef and Neal not on ice this morning.Likely maintenance says Wilkins (although with Klef’s lowest TOI of the year last night, I wonder if he’s battling something).

    Drai/McDavid/Kass together so we are likely to see Zack back which is huge.

    Khaira/Nuge/Gagner together – massive.

    Really good to hear assuming Klefbom/Neal are just maintenance days.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Called back goals, posts, and across the crease pucks don’t count
    The one goal that went in he was moving his glove to get the puck and bounced of his glove
    Many goalies that people have thought were awesome like Vasilevskyi Murray Bob
    Are absolutely shitting the bed right night
    We shouldn’t expect him to be perfect.He just needs to be good enough

    Don’t get me wrong, Mikko was a big part of the win last night – I gave him multiple kudos throughout the thread and, without a few big saves at important times, the game is a different game.

    At the same time, there was one re-occurring issue last night – three times, he booted catchable pucks off his glove off non-grade A shots and twice it ended up in the net – we/he were lucky the first one didn’t count.

    This didn’t happen once, it happened three times – I’m not bashing the tender, I’m giving him props for his overall performance last night – at the same time, in my opinion, this is noteworthy and something to keep our eyes on. I’m sure Schwartz, the rest of the coaching staff and even Mikko himself have noted it and dealing with it today.

  97. who says:

    Ryan: Maybe a somewhat projectable trade like for an Adrian Kempe or similar.

    Kempe would be a great add. But why would LA do that?
    Isn’t he the kind of young player a rebuilding team tries to collect?

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: 1) Play Rickibox defense against the volume shooting Corsi gamer.(Russell Larsson)Rope-a-dope.

    2) The Oilers almost never lose when Persson is in the lineup. I think he brings out the good Klefbom.And even though Persson is meh.Good Klefbom floats the Oilers boat.Klefbom doesn’t have the opportunity to make bad decisions when he is taking care of his partner. Klefbom is a soft to middle minute killer and difference maker.

    I generally agree with point two but will not that Persson only played 12 minutes last night whereas the other 5 were all in the 19-21 minute range.

    Benning back will be a boon

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oiler 4v5 results so far this year: (minimum 25 minutes played 4v5)

    Forwards by 4v5 TOI/gm
    Josh Archibald 2.4
    Riley Sheahan 2.4
    Jujhar Khaira 1.8
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.7
    Markus Granlund 1.3
    Patrick Russell 1.2
    Leon Draisaitl 1.1

    Dmen by 4v5 TOI/gm
    Oscar Klefbom 3.0
    Kris Russell 3.0
    Darnell Nurse 2.0
    Ethan Bear 1.9

    When we next look at results, you should expect Sheahan/Archibald and Klefbom/Russell to be worse that they others as its clear they are “PK1” and they get the opposition’s PP1 when they are fresh. The toughest minutes.

    Corsi Against/60 4v5
    Player CA/60
    Josh Archibald 116.0
    Riley Sheahan 112.4
    Markus Granlund 109.5
    Leon Draisaitl 92.8
    Patrick Russell 92.5
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 82.8
    Jujhar Khaira 82.0

    Player CA/60
    Darnell Nurse 105.8
    Ethan Bear 100.5
    Kris Russell 97.0
    Oscar Klefbom 94.1

    The larger numbers are the worse numbers.

    Sheahan and Archibald seem a *bit* too outside the group,even for being PK1

    Klefbom and Russell look good comparatively given that they are PK1

    Expected Goals Against/60
    Markus Granlund 8.2
    Leon Draisaitl 8.1
    Riley Sheahan 7.0
    Patrick Russell 6.5
    Josh Archibald 6.4
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 5.6
    Jujhar Khaira 5.5

    Player xGA/60
    Darnell Nurse 7.0
    Kris Russell 6.7
    Ethan Bear 6.5
    Oscar Klefbom 6.0

    Dmen are flatter here. Nuge and Khaira shine like their CA/60

    Actual Goals Against/60 4v5 (warning – micro sample)

    Player GA/60
    Patrick Russell 11.33
    Markus Granlund 6.84
    Riley Sheahan 3.84
    Leon Draisaitl 3.57
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.81
    Jujhar Khaira 2.31
    Josh Archibald 2.23

    Player GA/60
    Oscar Klefbom 5.08
    Darnell Nurse 4.76
    Kris Russell 4.71
    Ethan Bear 4.14

    Some really nice results all around (Russell notwithstanding)

    Archibald likes small samples.

    Here’s total TOI 4v5 so you can see the sample size:
    Player TOI
    Riley Sheahan 62.4
    Josh Archibald 53.8
    Jujhar Khaira 52.0
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 42.8
    Markus Granlund 35.1
    Leon Draisaitl 33.6
    Patrick Russell 31.8

    Player TOI
    Oscar Klefbom 94.4
    Kris Russell 89.1
    Darnell Nurse 63.0
    Ethan Bear 57.9

    I’m not going to try to analyze this too much other to say the expected goal and actual goal results are pretty good.

  100. who says:

    JimmyV1965: The Canucks acquired JT Miller for a first rounder and he was signed for multiple years at a reasonable contract. Miller has scored at least 20 goals every year except one and is a year younger. Why would we use a first rounder in a better draft year for a rental? This team is not in a position to acquire a rental. We need two players long term.

    Miller is a great example.
    Good young player on long term deal who doesn’t fit in his teams cap structure.
    Problem is, its hard to find the right players in a similar situation.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Glad I’m not the only one that sees nothing in Sheahan. Very disappointing after 30+ games.
    It’s obvious the Forward well has run dry in Bakersfield if management thinks there is nothing better than Patrick Russell. Accomplisheds squat. The 3rd and 4th lines are putting tremendous pressure on the PP to score as they accomplish nothing.

    Having the league’s second best PK is accomplishing something (a big part of the Oilers’ place in the standings) and Sheahan is a huge part of that – huge. As a 4C, Sheahan is a valued member of the team. Its unfortunate that he is being run as 3C much of the time.

    Russell is somewhat of a tweener but he is hugely responsible – rarely makes a mistake that costs the team and is 2nd on the Oilers’ forwards in GA/60. He is also a depth part of the important PK.

    Those two guys can play on my team any day – they just need to be on the fourth line, not the 3rd.

  102. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    Reja: Josh Johnson in Ohio is my target start the conversation with Seth’s little brother and Continue it with JP. The Jackets aren’t making the playoffs this year.

    He is referring to Josh Anderson. I am on board with this.

    So my targets are:

    1. Miles Wood, with salary retained. I would try and go Chiasson and Marody for Wood & Michael McLeod – who would be opposed?

    2. Josh Anderson and Marko Dano for JP & Caleb Jones – thoughts?

    3. Josh Archibald for Gerald Mayhew with Minnesota, he is ripping up the AHL. I am convinced there is a player there.

    4. I would love to get Austin Wagner out of LA as well, but due to Conference, likely impossible.

    So what is out there as Centre possibilities? Trevor Lewis? Anyone else come to mind? This is a reason I have also circled Michael McLeod, but I suspect he is more of a RW, but having the bros on this team is intriguing….

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    “ippett didn’t play him for the final seven minutes of the game. That’s a tell.”

    Given he wasn’t on the ice for practice today……

  104. jp says:

    flyfish1168: Sheahan is a pylon. I think with the year we are having there will be other suitors what would like to come play for our team

    I don’t think he’s THAT bad, considering his relatively difficult usage. And considering he’s useful on the PK I’d be fine bringing him back at 4/5C. Other suitors would be cool too though.

  105. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Ryan: Maybe a somewhat projectable trade like for an Adrian Kempe or similar.

    Kempe would be a great add. Maybe our first and a decent prospect would be attractive. Hard to say how the Kings view that team. If they are looking at a total rebuild near term, maybe that works.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    The disallowed goal was scored by Persson’s man. Full stop.

    There were many players culpable on that goal including Gagner, Persson and the goalie.

    Thankful for the video review team.

  107. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bruce McCurdy: My hat is off to you at the breadth of your musical exploration and knowledge. Formsure I am gonna check out that Lana Del Rey album, have seen it mentioned on a number of “Best of 2019” lists.

    Listened to Jenny Hval’s new album “The Practice of Love” this morning.
    If you liked what Laurie Anderson was doing in the 80s, this album will rock your world.
    Well, not rock exactly.

  108. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: There were many players culpable on that goal including Gagner, Persson and the goalie.

    Thankful for the video review team.

    Yes there were … which means the Kings made a damn good hockey play. Happens from time to time.

  109. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here it is from our first write up (the number of players vary per year but the TOI% is pretty stable)


    FINAL PLAYER AND TOI COUNTS FOR EACH QoC RANK
    As a sanity check on the sizes of the lists generated we took a look at the total TOI for each of the lists.


    Elite – 60 players. Total Time on Ice = 9,941,808 seconds (~18% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    Middle – 383 forwards. Total Time on Ice = 35,581,421 seconds (~64% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    Gritensity – 231 forwards. Total Time on Ice = 9,709,954 seconds (~18% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    This is a really cool result because we started this whole process by saying “Why don’t we separate out everyone to the right of 1 Standard Deviation (SD) and everyone to the left of 1SD and make 3 columns of players then run everyone’s numbers against those 3 groups.

    It looks like we actually got there as 16.7% represents ~1SD for a normal distribution and we ended up with 18% of the TOI at the top and 18% of the TOI at the bottom for our quasi-normal distribution of TOI.

    Cool.

    Here’s the whole write up: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    It was an important realization for us that while there are lots of “gritensity” players, they still only make up ~17% of total 5v5 TOI.

    The bottom of every team’s roster is in constant flux all season.

    Thanks for this. Very cool that the TOI made a basically normal distribution.

    I was wondering how many of each category the Oilers “should” have, so the proportion of players in each group (ignoring TOI) is relevant. Your breakdown shows:

    Elite – 9%
    Middle – 57%
    Gritensity – 34%

    On a 14 forward roster:
    Elite – 1.25 players
    Middle – 8 players
    Gritensity – 4.75 players

    The Oilers have:
    Elite – 2
    Middle – 5 (I’m including Neal here though you didn’t mention him)
    Gritensity – 7 (I’m including Haas and Nygard here since they had no track record in the NHL)

    So yeah, the Oilers are definitely thin through the middle, not a good thing in this case.

  110. Reja says:

    yeraslob: What… no Petri Skriko?

    I’m a Oiler fan from day one I can relate the good old days and how much fun it was to the younger folks. The Canucks have zero heritage nothing that’s why their fan base is flip-flippers ( not that there’s anything wrong with that) The Canuck fans booed team Canada of the ice in 72 against the Russians for heaven sakes.

  111. ashley says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here it is from our first write up (the number of players vary per year but the TOI% is pretty stable)


    FINAL PLAYER AND TOI COUNTS FOR EACH QoC RANK
    As a sanity check on the sizes of the lists generated we took a look at the total TOI for each of the lists.


    Elite – 60 players. Total Time on Ice = 9,941,808 seconds (~18% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    Middle – 383 forwards. Total Time on Ice = 35,581,421 seconds (~64% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    Gritensity – 231 forwards. Total Time on Ice = 9,709,954 seconds (~18% of total forward TOI in the NHL)

    This is a really cool result because we started this whole process by saying “Why don’t we separate out everyone to the right of 1 Standard Deviation (SD) and everyone to the left of 1SD and make 3 columns of players then run everyone’s numbers against those 3 groups.

    It looks like we actually got there as 16.7% represents ~1SD for a normal distribution and we ended up with 18% of the TOI at the top and 18% of the TOI at the bottom for our quasi-normal distribution of TOI.

    Cool.

    Here’s the whole write up: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    It was an important realization for us that while there are lots of “gritensity” players, they still only make up ~17% of total 5v5 TOI.

    The bottom of every team’s roster is in constant flux all season.

    This is interesting stuff. I’ve seen it referenced here, but have never looked at it too closely.

    At the risk of complicating a relatively clever and simple model, have you considered dividing the very large middle group (large by number of players and ice time) into A and B?

    When I look at the difference between NHL rosters, usually average to good teams have a similar number from elite and also a similar handful from the bottom bin, but it’s the quality of the middle – where the majority of icetime is devoted – that is the difference between a decent team and a really good team. This is what we commonly refer to as depth. This might be what LT refers to as balance. Colorado, Calgary, Arizona, Tampa would probably shine with lots of middle “A” players compared to peers.

    The ability to build a team with an outsized number of middle “A” players depends on how much is is leftover after spending on the elites and goalies, but also youth/value contracts from good drafting.

    I suspect an outsized proportion of middle “A” players would be a good predictor of a team’s expected season’s success.

    It is also the reason we (maybe just me?) are feeling queasy about extrapolating the Oilers’ current season record over the remainder of the season.

  112. Glovjuice says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Loved how the ‘canes painted an outline of Mrazek’s body at the “crime scene” for yesterday’s practice. That’s a team that knows how to have fun.

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Glovjuice,

    Good stuff, GJ, i’d hoped you would have caught that.

    My hat is off to you at the breadth of your musical exploration and knowledge. Formsure I am gonna check out that Lana Del Rey album, have seen it mentioned on a number of “Best of 2019” lists.

    Cheers.

    And, trade Larson fast as he is DONE.

  113. duct tape and foil says:

    A few quick points:

    – every year I read about Drai/McDavid having a “historic” year that will not be repeated. Is it not more accurate that these guy are uber elite young players who have not reached their peak? What is their top end or typical performance? Nobody knows.

    – need a 3C to drop Haas/Sheahan down to their proper slots: 4C/5C. I would give up a 1st rounder for a Pageau who agrees to a reasonable extension (5 years at < $25 million) as part of the trade. Would not give up the pick for a rental.

    Hall is going to get paid and I don't give any contracts over $5 million to wingers. Only exception would be if the deal is something like Neal, JP and Jones and Hall signs for Drai money. NJ isn't doing that.

    We are weak at forward, lost RNH for 6 games and Kass for 3. We play .500 over that time. Some ugly wins but you have to get those when injuries strike.

  114. Reja says:

    Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes: He is referring to Josh Anderson.I am on board with this.

    So my targets are:

    1. Miles Wood, with salary retained.I would try and go Chiasson and Marody for Wood & Michael McLeod – who would be opposed?

    2.Josh Anderson and Marko Dano for JP & Caleb Jones – thoughts?

    3.Josh Archibald for Gerald Mayhew with Minnesota, he is ripping up the AHL.I am convinced there is a player there.

    4.I would love to get Austin Wagner out of LA as well, but due to Conference, likely impossible.

    So what is out there as Centre possibilities?Trevor Lewis?Anyone else come to mind?This is a reason I have also circled Michael McLeod, but I suspect he is more of a RW, but having the bros on this team is intriguing….

    Thanks. I was betting NFL this morning I guess that’s how I came up with Josh Johnson.

  115. McSorley33 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Bottom 6 last night:

    Nygard 0 shots
    Sheahan 0 shots
    P.Russell 0 shots

    Granlund 0 shots
    Haas 0 shots
    Chiasson 2 shots (both on PP)

    Yep…….

  116. Mr DeBakey says:

    Here are the Flames Top 7 forwards by 5v5 TOI this season, and their GF/GA numbers.
    Anyone see a 3C here?:

    Johnny Gaudreau ** 15 ** 22 ** 40.5
    Mikael Backlund ** 15 ** 17 ** 46.9
    Matthew Tkachuk ** 14 ** 17 ** 45.2
    Sean Monahan *** 14 ** 23 *** 37.8
    Elias Lindholm ***** 15 *** 22 *** 40.5
    Derek Ryan ***** 15 *** 9 *** 62.5
    Andrew Mangiapane ** 14 ** 11 ** 56.0

    Its interesting all seven are within 1 GFON of each other.

  117. John Chambers says:

    SkatinginSand:
    For those that are on their knees nightly, promising the Hockey Gods their firstborn son for a return of Taylor Hall, Scott Burnside has an interesting take on him in “The Athletic”.

    Takeaway, many GMs are “meh” on him, they don’t see him as a long term game changer, who will be greatly overpaid for his declining years.

    Hall as a UFA is an interesting scenario because:

    – GM’s should be reluctant to sign him to a max contract given the injury risk
    – Hall will only sign with a team poised to contend

    So which contending teams can afford him, for how much and how long?

    A team like Columbus or LA could offer $11M x 7 but he won’t be interested.

    I could see a Hall – Ebs reunion in Long Island on a $9M x 5 ticket

  118. yeraslob says:

    Reja: I’m a Oiler fan from day one I can relate the good old days and how much fun it was to the younger folks. The Canucks have zero heritage nothing that’s why their fan base is flip-flippers ( not that there’s anything wrong with that) The Canuck fans booed team Canada of the ice in 72 against the Russians for heaven sakes.

    Loved the 5 in 7. And ’06
    The waiting is the hardest part.

  119. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I generally agree with point two but will not that Persson only played 12 minutes last night whereas the other 5 were all in the 19-21 minute range.

    Benning back will be a boon

    Persson played 12:20 last night. Benning is averaging 13:42. Just saying.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tippett says they’ll confirm for sure tomorrow but likely both Kass and Nuge are back.

    Both Klef and Neal will be back in.

    I think they have 23 on the current active roster so they’ll need to make a roster move to activate Nuge from IR.

  121. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Oiler 4v5 results so far this year: (minimum 25 minutes played 4v5)

    Corsi Against/60 4v5
    PlayerCA/60
    Josh Archibald116.0
    Riley Sheahan112.4
    Markus Granlund109.5
    Leon Draisaitl92.8
    Patrick Russell92.5
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins82.8
    Jujhar Khaira82.0

    PlayerCA/60
    Darnell Nurse105.8
    Ethan Bear100.5
    Kris Russell97.0
    Oscar Klefbom94.1

    Expected Goals Against/60
    Markus Granlund8.2
    Leon Draisaitl8.1
    Riley Sheahan7.0
    Patrick Russell6.5
    Josh Archibald6.4
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins5.6
    Jujhar Khaira5.5

    PlayerxGA/60
    Darnell Nurse7.0
    Kris Russell6.7
    Ethan Bear6.5
    Oscar Klefbom6.0

    Those CA/60 numbers for Archibald and Sheahan are indeed scary. Interesting to see they’re back around team average in xGA/60, guess they’re limiting the inside shots.

    The Nuge/Khaira numbers are very impressive. Can someone be a piss cutter on the PK?

  122. leadfarmer says:

    Glovjuice,

    Do you have a link or can you or Bruce repost it. I must have missed it.
    I really enjoyed the Tool album especially for old rockers
    Invincible will be the Mike Smith song
    Descending is also a great song

    You peaked my interest with the Polish death metal. I don’t listen to death metal but that is a very good album

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    vance: The other thing is that Leon and Connor are doing something historic in terms of production for a duo.Their scoring synergy hasn’t been seen since Lemieux/Jagr or Gretzky/Kurri.We almost take it for granted that they’ll be this good year after year.

    Reasonable expectations should be 30+ goals for both with McDavid getting 120 pts and Drai 80 but they’re both blowing waaay past that.So if you aren’t going to get this performance repeated, maybetake a chance and go for it this year?

    This is fair and, no, I don’t expect Drai to perform this way year after year, or even for the rest of this year but he did blow through 30G/80P last year as well so, if two years in a row he’s in the 50G/100P range, maybe that is his year over year reasonable projection?

  124. Reja says:

    yeraslob: Loved the 5 in 7.And ’06
    The waiting is the hardest part.

    It’s coming and I believe it’ll be sooner then most people think, we are a 3C and a top 6 winger away. Holland can fix this tomorrow but he’s waiting for the deadline cap room blah blah blah. We are deepest team in the pacific and probably the league on D. I get a kick out of the resident troll, one week it’s Vegas then Dallas then the Canucks are the second coming of Jesus Christ, now he are she is on league run Coyotes ( you ever wonder why they get the calls, wonder no longer) The Coyotes are like watching paint dry kinda like the Oilers last night, we need Kass and Nuge back now.

  125. drglen says:

    If Klef is actually out tomorrow or for any length of time this is a huge blow. Could we at last call up lagesson then.

    Id sure like to see Benson replace Gagner for a few games.

    Bottom 6 was pretty good. Granland had a very good game and the penalty given to him was garbage.. just checking. He was critical in that third period.

    Leon has to teach Haas how to not get bumped and toppled over on his backside everytime he has possesion in the offensive corners.

    But let’s face it Koskinen won us that game.

  126. OilClog says:

    jp: Those CA/60 numbers for Archibald and Sheahan are indeed scary. Interesting to see they’re back around team average in xGA/60, guess they’re limiting the inside shots.

    The Nuge/Khaira numbers are very impressive. Can someone be a piss cutter on the PK?

    Nuge is an elite Piss Killer, no cutting on his lawn.

  127. duct tape and foil says:

    John Chambers: I could see a Hall – Ebs reunion in Long Island on a $9M x 5 ticket

    I think NYI may be gun shy as that Ebs contract (5 x $5.5 million) could be a big problem going forward. Ebs goalscoring in NYI:

    17-18 .31 gpg
    18-19 .24 gpg
    19-20 .12 gpg

    Add an injury prone Hall at 7 x $10 million and that could cripple their cap situation down the road. My guess is that Hall will have to choose between being paid and playing on a winner. Unlikely to get both.

  128. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Mr DeBakey: Listened to Jenny Hval’s new album “The Practice of Love” this morning.
    If you liked what Laurie Anderson was doing in the 80s, this album will rock your world.
    Well, not rock exactly.

    I absolutely love/d Laurie Anderson. Caught her concert movie “Home of the Brave” at the Princess Theatre way back in the day & was transfixed. Many years later I drove down an icy QE2 to catch her live at Jack Singer Concert Hall. She was NASA’s first ever artist-in-residence at the time.

    Definitely not rock. I’d classify her under either “esoteric” or “unclassifiable”. Made a stromg power couple wih her late husband Lou Reed.

    Thanks for the rec, i’ll check out Jenny Hval.

    Slightly different track, but for a time this year I fell into the music of Agnes Obel, a classically trained singer-songwriter-musician from Denmark. Came across her through the TV show Cardinal. Here is an example of her trio in a live studio recording.

  129. who says:

    Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes: He is referring to Josh Anderson.I am on board with this.

    So my targets are:

    1. Miles Wood, with salary retained.I would try and go Chiasson and Marody for Wood & Michael McLeod – who would be opposed?

    2.Josh Anderson and Marko Dano for JP & Caleb Jones – thoughts?

    3.Josh Archibald for Gerald Mayhew with Minnesota, he is ripping up the AHL.I am convinced there is a player there.

    4.I would love to get Austin Wagner out of LA as well, but due to Conference, likely impossible.

    So what is out there as Centre possibilities?Trevor Lewis?Anyone else come to mind?This is a reason I have also circled Michael McLeod, but I suspect he is more of a RW, but having the bros on this team is intriguing….

    1. New Jersey would be opposed. Rebuilding team and you are offering them older players for younger, more talented ones?
    2. This sounds pretty fair. Oilers might say no.
    3. Don’t know the player.
    4. Doubt Wagner is available.

  130. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I absolutely love/d Laurie Anderson. Caught her concert movie “Home of the Brave” at the Princess Theatre way back in the day & was transfixed. Many years later I drove down an icy QE2 to catch her live at Jack Singer Concert Hall. She was NASA’s first ever artist-in-residence at the time.

    Definitely not rock. I’d classify her under either “esoteric” or “unclassifiable”. Made a stromg power couple wih her late husband Lou Reed.

    “Mister Heartbreak” is on my list of the best 25 albums of the last 50 years.

  131. who says:

    duct tape and foil:
    A few quick points:

    – every year I read about Drai/McDavid having a “historic” year that will not be repeated. Is it not more accurate that these guy are uber elite young players who have not reached their peak? What is their top end or typical performance? Nobody knows.

    – need a 3C to drop Haas/Sheahan down to their proper slots: 4C/5C. I would give up a 1st rounder for a Pageau who agrees to a reasonable extension (5 years at < $25 million) as part of the trade. Would not give up the pick for a rental.

    Hall is going to get paid and I don’t give any contracts over $5 million to wingers. Only exception would be if the deal is something like Neal, JP and Jones and Hall signs for Drai money. NJ isn’t doing that.

    We are weak at forward, lost RNH for 6 games and Kass for 3. We play .500 over that time. Some ugly wins but you have to get those when injuries strike.

    I would add to that package if you could sign Hall to an 8.5 extension.
    My suggestion is Neal, JP, Jones, Benson/Yamamoto, 2020 1st for Hall and 2020 2nd. Do you think Jersey gets a better offer?
    My reasoning is,
    1. Hall has at least 4 more good years in him.
    2. Gives the Oilers 2 outscoring lines. Makes them a perennial contender through the McDavid/Drai years
    3. Does not touch the big 3 d prospects.
    4. Probably only 10 or15 spots between the 2 draft picks.
    5. Don’t see another forward in the Oilers system who will ever do what Hall can in the next 4 years.

  132. godot10 says:

    “A big percentage of those shots I wouldn’t even call scoring chances. They are not scoring chances. Everybody looks at it different.”

    Tippett on why he was willing to let McLellan whack away…

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: Thanks for this. Very cool that the TOI made a basically normal distribution.

    I was wondering how many of each category the Oilers “should” have, so the proportion of players in each group (ignoring TOI) is relevant. Your breakdown shows:

    Elite – 9%
    Middle – 57%
    Gritensity – 34%

    On a 14 forward roster:
    Elite – 1.25 players
    Middle – 8 players
    Gritensity – 4.75 players

    The Oilers have:
    Elite – 2
    Middle – 5 (I’m including Neal here though you didn’t mention him)
    Gritensity – 7 (I’m including Haas and Nygard here since they had no track record in the NHL)

    So yeah, the Oilers are definitely thin through the middle, not a good thing in this case.

    I haven’t looked at distributions per team at all.

    We are going to have the players in each category for each year (eventually) on the site and will be easier to look at then.

  134. Reja says:

    drglen:
    If Klef is actually out tomorrow or for any length of time this is a huge blow. Could we at last call up lagesson then.

    Id sure like to see Benson replace Gagner for a few games.

    Bottom 6 was pretty good. Granland had a very good game and the penalty given to him was garbage.. just checking. He was critical in that third period.

    Leon has to teach Haas how to not get bumped and toppled over on his backside everytime he has possesion in the offensive corners.

    But let’s face it Koskinen won us that game.

    What’s the injury to Klefbom?

  135. Ryan says:

    godot10:
    “A big percentage of those shots I wouldn’t even call scoring chances.They are not scoring chances.Everybody looks at it different.”

    Tippett on why he was willing to let McLellan whack away…

    It’s funny, but that strategy is not new. I remember reading analytics articles ten years ago which tried to show that coaching strategy could affect goalie save percentage. Unfortunately they weren’t able at the time to tie the data to support these conclusions. One of the articles was about the Wild. Under Lemaire, pushing low percentage shots outside of prime scoring areas was their strategy.

  136. jp says:

    I decided to check the McDavid/Drai/Nuge on/off goals in game segments.

    The below is 5v5 goals in games 1-10, 11-20 and 21-31.

    McDavid on includes goals with one or both of Draisaitl and Nuge.
    Nuge on includes goals with both he and Draisaitl (they were 1-0 in segment 1, 1-1 in segment 2).
    Draisaitl’s goals are him alone.
    Gritensity is all of McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge off.

    Games 1-10
    McDavid on 11-6 65%
    Nuge on 6-2 75%
    Draisaitl on 0-2 0%
    Gritensity 1-7 12.5%

    Games 11-20
    McDavid on 11-6 65%
    Nuge on 4-5 44%
    Draisaitl on 1-0 100%
    Gritensity 5-8 38%

    Games 21-31
    McDavid on 12-13 48% (8-13 with Leon and/or Nuge, 4-0 without either!)
    Nuge on 0-3 0%
    Draisaitl on 1-3 25%
    Gritensity 7-11 39%
    (McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge on 13-19 41%)

    Nuge has not held his own since the first segment. This isn’t a big surprise IMO, he needs help.

    Draisaitl has been poor all year without McDavid/Nuge in limited minutes.

    McDavid has fallen off a ton in the most recent segment.

    The bottom 6 dug a big hole in the first 10 game and remains poor (just below 40% GF%) but they’ve been much better than their start.

    All the improvement from the bottom 6 (they are still very bad) has been countered by McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge losing the goal battle (badly) themselves.

    Lots of areas for improvement (all of them actually). I still feel like a 2nd line winger will benefit this team more than a 3C (though the latter may well be cheaper to acquire). Man.

  137. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Mr DeBakey: “Mister Heartbreak” is on my list of the best 25 albums of the last 50 years.

    There’s a man after my own heart. Can’t tell you how often I listened to “Mister Heartbreak”, but it was a lot. Besides Anderson itself, it features Peter Gabriel, Adrian Belew, Bill Laswell & even a cameo by William S. Burroughs! My favourite tune is “Kokoku” for philosophical reasons though the whole album is chockablock with outstanding tracks.

  138. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Cave down? Has to be?

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ashley: This is interesting stuff.I’ve seen it referenced here, but have never looked at it too closely.

    At the risk of complicating a relatively clever and simple model, have you considered dividing the very large middle group (large by number of players and ice time) into A and B?

    When I look at the difference between NHL rosters, usually average to good teams have a similar number from elite and also a similar handful from the bottom bin, but it’s the quality of the middle – where the majority of icetime is devoted – that is the difference between a decent team and a really good team.This is what we commonly refer to as depth.This might be what LT refers to as balance.Colorado, Calgary, Arizona, Tampa would probably shine with lots of middle “A” players compared to peers.

    The ability to build a team with an outsized number of middle “A” players depends on how much is is leftover after spending on the elites and goalies, but also youth/value contracts from good drafting.

    I suspect an outsized proportion of middle “A” players would be a good predictor of a team’s expected season’s success.

    It is also the reason we (maybe just me?) are feeling queasy about extrapolating the Oilers’ current season record over the remainder of the season.

    We had that exact thoughts to start.

    We know there’s a gradient to the quality of players and wanted to describe them.

    We found the middle 3 bins of “middle” were all so close that splicing them into categories on their own didn’t change the results so they got lumped together as separating them just made everything needlessly complicated with no benefit.

  140. Pouzar says:

    Klefbom isn’t injured. Banged up? Yes. Where do “you people” get yer info?
    Almost as funny as Kassian getting benched for a penalty.

    Jack Michaels
    @EdmontonJack
    ·
    2h
    Neal & Klefbom just maintenance days; both will be in the lineup tomorrow, as well Kassian & RNH, barring any setbacks.

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp:
    I decided to check the McDavid/Drai/Nuge on/off goals in game segments.

    The below is 5v5 goals in games 1-10, 11-20 and 21-31.

    McDavid on includes goals with one or both of Draisaitl and Nuge.
    Nuge on includes goals with both he and Draisaitl (they were 1-0 in segment 1, 1-1 in segment 2).
    Draisaitl’s goals are him alone.
    Gritensity is all of McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge off.

    Games 1-10
    McDavid on 11-6 65%
    Nuge on 6-2 75%
    Draisaitl on 0-2 0%
    Gritensity 1-7 12.5%

    Games 11-20
    McDavid on 11-6 65%
    Nuge on 4-5 44%
    Draisaitl on 1-0 100%
    Gritensity 5-8 38%

    Games 21-31
    McDavid on 12-13 48% (8-13 with Leon and/or Nuge, 4-0 without either!)
    Nuge on 0-3 0%
    Draisaitl on 1-3 25%
    Gritensity 7-11 39%
    (McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge on 13-19 41%)

    Nuge has not held his own since the first segment. This isn’t a big surprise IMO, he needs help.

    Draisaitl has been poor all year without McDavid/Nuge in limited minutes.

    McDavid has fallen off a ton in the most recent segment.

    The bottom 6 dug a big hole in the first 10 game and remains poor (just below 40% GF%) but they’ve been much better than their start.

    All the improvement from the bottom 6 (they are still very bad) has been countered by McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge losing the goal battle (badly) themselves.

    Lots of areas for improvement (all of them actually). I still feel like a 2nd line winger will benefit this team more than a 3C (though the latter may well be cheaper to acquire). Man.

    If you separate the Gritensity into “Sheahan On/Off” a big Kleig light starts to shine.

    I know he plays ~same toughness of minutes as Nuge with lesser help, but he’s getting beat up.

  142. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Josh Leivo. Man. LT was right about that guy all these years.

    I remember attending McDavid’s first 5-point game, a 5-2 win over the Leafs late in his rookie season. Leivo scored one of the Leafs’ goals. In my mind’s ear I can still hear the ping of that rocket tickling the post on the way in.

    Buddy could always shoot the pill, & has proven it twice over today.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Carter Hutton is playing in Vancouver today so we are likely to get Ullmark tomorrow – they’ve split pretty evenly with Ullmark’s stats being a bit better.

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar,

    Almost as funny as Kassian getting benched for penalty.

    I wondered out loud if Kassian was benched for a dumb penalty.

    I wonder out loud about a lot of things.

    None one said it *was* the reason.

  145. JimmyV1965 says:

    The Habs are desperate for LHD. Caleb Jones would look mighty enticing to them right now. They’ve got lots of forwards that would fit here.

  146. duct tape and foil says:

    who: I would add to that package if you could sign Hall to an 8.5 extension.
    My suggestion is Neal, JP, Jones, Benson/Yamamoto, 2020 1st for Hall and 2020 2nd. Do you think Jersey gets a better offer?
    My reasoning is,
    1. Hall has at least 4 more good years in him.
    2. Gives the Oilers 2 outscoring lines. Makes them a perennial contender through the McDavid/Drai years
    3. Does not touch the big 3 d prospects.
    4. Probably only 10 or15 spots between the 2 draft picks.
    5. Don’t see another forward in the Oilers system who will ever do what Hall can in the next 4 years.

    The Oilers issues now revolve around depth behind the elite guys. Your trade makes that situation even worse. Nobody is giving NJD that kind of package for a rental.

    Stone (similar to Hall in age and production) is a good comp. A similar package from EDM would be JP, Jones and a 3rd. Sure you can say Stone was only going to Vegas, but Hall is being almost as picky. All “contenders” have (or will have) cap issues and need to be very careful with this type of contract.

    Shero will settle for best available offer at the deadline and it will be a lot less than he’s dreaming about.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling: Yes.

    Yes 100 times.

    Pageau instantly makes the third line a credible threat. He can push the river and elevate his linemates while providing more cover for the Nuge and McDavid/Drai lines. Not to mention the fact that he provides insurance in the event of a top 6 injury.

    At some point you have to make a move like this to put the team over the top. Do you want to make that move in two years, when Larsson, Kassian and Nuge are potentially gone, or do you make it right now, in the midst of historic seasons by your two top forwards?

    Holland should pull the trigger. That gives the team time to gel and for chemistry to develop well ahead of the playoffs. If he has to overpay a little, fine. The Oilers with Pageau are a top 3 threat for the Cup, IMO.

    Pageau instantly makes the team better, 100% but, unless we have a clear line on a reasonable extension ($4M per or less), I cannot give up this year’s 1st rounder in almost any trade.

    This team is going to need value contracts going forward and this year’s draft is supposed to be epic and deep.

    Lets not forget, Pageau loves Ottawa and doesn’t want to leave and he and his wife have ties there. Ottawa has more room re sign him in the off-season as well.

    This would mostly likely be a rental and I cannot get on board with a 1st rounder, in particular this year’s first rounder, for a rental.

    I can do a 2nd and Lagesson – maybe with a condition that the 2nd turns in to a 2021 first if re-signed.

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Josh Leivo. Man. LT was right about that guy all these years.

    I remember attending McDavid’s first point game, a 5-2 win over the Leafs late in his rookie season. Leivo scored one of the Leafs’ goals. In my mind’s ear I can still hear the ping of that rocket tickling the post on the way in.

    Buddy could always shoot the pill, & has proven it twice over today.

    LT pimping Leivo who got traded for this guy: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=169554

    Stauffer pimping Derek Ryan when he was still at UofA.

    It’s no wonder we get frustrated.

  149. duct tape and foil says:

    JimmyV1965:
    The Habs are desperate for LHD. Caleb Jones would look mighty enticing to them right now. They’ve got lots of forwards that would fit here.

    Always liked Lehkonen

  150. Reja says:

    Pouzar:
    Klefbom isn’t injured. Banged up? Yes. Where do “you people” get yer info?
    Almost as funny as Kassian getting benched for penalty.

    Jack Michaels
    @EdmontonJack
    ·
    2h
    Neal & Klefbom just maintenance days; both will be in the lineup tomorrow, as well Kassian & RNH, barring any setbacks.

    I vividly remember the woman who were 1/2 as good looking as these players enjoy their time with and I can vouch for being sore when you caught a spitfire.

  151. flyfish1168 says:

    JT Miller can do so much. Would have looked good in Oiler colors.

  152. yeraslob says:

    drglen:
    If Klef is actually out tomorrow or for any length of time this is a huge blow. Could we at last call up lagesson then.

    Id sure like to see Benson replace Gagner for a few games.

    Bottom 6 was pretty good. Granland had a very good game and the penalty given to him was garbage.. just checking. He was critical in that third period.

    Leon has to teach Haas how to not get bumped and toppled over on his backside everytime he has possesion in the offensive corners.

    But let’s face it Koskinen won us that game.
    Leon is listed almost 30 lbs heavier than Haas and has played on NA ice for years. Haas has speed but I think is used to more time and space in Europe’s bigger rinks, I give him credit for basically trying to adapt on the fly. Wish we had more speedy players.

  153. godot10 says:

    flyfish1168:
    JT Miller can do so much. Would have looked good in Oiler colors.

    JT Miller was mentioned in the summer.

    The price was a 2020 1st. If Holland had offered it, I wonder which first, Vancouver’s or Edmonton’s Brisebois would have taken.

    And if there was a bidding war, the price would have been higher.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: I had no idea that Tippett was doing it to this extreme.

    Dmen TOI with McDavid last night:

    PlayerTOI
    Darnell Nurse13.6
    Ethan Bear12.9
    Kris Russell3.6
    Adam Larsson2.9
    Oscar Klefbom0.9
    Joel Persson0.5

    That’s incredible dedication by a coach to a 5 man unit.

    In particular considering the defence are deployed by Playfair and the fowards by Tippett (at least generally) – there must be great communication on that bench – no wonder Tip wanted to hire his man Jimmy P.

  155. who says:

    duct tape and foil: The Oilers issues now revolve around depth behind the elite guys. Your trade makes that situation even worse. Nobody is giving NJD that kind of package for a rental.

    Stone (similar to Hall in age and production) is a good comp. A similar package from EDM would be JP, Jones and a 3rd. Sure you can say Stone was only going to Vegas, but Hall is being almost as picky. All “contenders” have (or will have) cap issues and need to be very careful with this type of contract.

    Shero will settle for best available offer at the deadline and it will be a lot less than he’s dreaming about.

    Hey, if we can get him for less, great.
    I just stated the max I would be willing to give up. And only if Hall agrees to an 8.5 million extension. I’m not talking about a rental here.
    You make a valid point about losing some depth, but depth players are the easiest ones to acquire. Hell, we signed about 6 of them this summer in that million dollar range.

  156. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If you separate the Gritensity into “Sheahan On/Off” a big Kleig light starts to shine.

    I know he plays ~same toughness of minutes as Nuge with lesser help, but he’s getting beat up.

    This is absolutely true, but his results have been much better recently like the rest of the bottom 6.

    1-10
    Sheahan on 0-5
    SF% 38%
    xGF% 35%
    PDO 886 (SH%-0, SV%-.886)

    11-20
    Sheahan on 0-4
    SF% 48%
    xGF% 44%
    PDO 883 (SH%-0, SV%-.883)

    21-31
    Sheahan on 4-5
    SF% 42%
    xGF% 43%
    PDO 1010 (SH%-8.9, SV%-921)

    Still terrible mind you, but he’s into the 40s in xGF% and his PDO is finally over 900. On ice shooting won’t say at 9% but his on ice SV% ought to remain where it is. Ozone starts have held steady below 25%.

    I don’t think he’s the source of all the Oilers problems, or even the weakest link (though he’s definitely in the “not good enough for the role asked” group).

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: In particular considering the defence are deployed by Playfair and the fowards by Tippett (at least generally) – there must be great communication on that bench – no wonder Tip wanted to hire his man Jimmy P.

    I’m not quite following what you are saying.

    Are you saying that Playfair has his own deployment strategy independent of what Tippett wants?

  158. Sierra says:

    OriginalPouzar: I generally agree with point two but will not that Persson only played 12 minutes last night whereas the other 5 were all in the 19-21 minute range.

    Benning back will be a boon

    Benning is hurt so often it’s getting difficult to count on him

  159. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: This is absolutely true, but his results have been much better recently like the rest of the bottom 6.

    1-10
    Sheahan on 0-5
    SF% 38%
    xGF% 35%
    PDO 886 (SH%-0, SV%-.886)

    11-20
    Sheahan on 0-4
    SF% 48%
    xGF% 44%
    PDO 883 (SH%-0, SV%-.883)

    21-31
    Sheahan on 4-5
    SF% 42%
    xGF% 43%
    PDO 1010 (SH%-8.9, SV%-921)

    Still terrible mind you, but he’s into the 40s in xGF% and his PDO is finally over 900. On ice shooting won’t say at 9% but his on ice SV% ought to remain where it is. Ozone starts have held steady below 25%.

    I don’t think he’s the source of all the Oilers problems, or even the weakest link (though he’s definitely in the “not good enough for the role asked” group).

    Agreed its not all the problems.

    It’s a big one though given his deployment.

  160. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Well, there’s this: http://www.behindthenet.ca/blog/labels/Shooting.html

    Maybe we could get an update.

    Woodguy?

  161. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If you separate the Gritensity into “Sheahan On/Off” a big Kleig light starts to shine.

    I know he plays ~same toughness of minutes as Nuge with lesser help, but he’s getting beat up.

    Actually, since you bring up Nuge, his numbers have been just awful since the nice run to start. In the last 2 segments (Oilers games 11-31).

    SF%
    Nuge 43.6%
    Sheahan 43.5%

    GF%
    Nuge 42.9%
    Sheahan 30.8%

    xGF%
    Nuge 47.6%
    Sheahan 43.1%

    PDO
    Nuge 998
    Sheahan 956

    Ozone Starts
    Nuge 59.6%
    Sheahan 22.9%

    Nuge’s xGF% is better but not by a ton. Again, Sheahan has not been good. Likewise Nuge and his line have not been good enough by a lot.

  162. yeraslob says:

    Buffalo hanging around in Vcr

  163. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Agreed its not all the problems.

    It’s a big one though given his deployment.

    That’s fair. A guy like Pageau to break even in those minutes (or close) would be a huge boost.

  164. Reja says:

    Hey Canuckle fans diving in the playoffs won’t work what a farce. Buffalo is going to be fired up tomorrow.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    Well, there’s this: http://www.behindthenet.ca/blog/labels/Shooting.html

    Maybe we could get an update.

    Woodguy?

    Want do you want?

    Rebound shots?

  166. yeraslob says:

    Reja:
    Hey Canuckle fans diving in the playoffs won’t work what a farce. Buffalo is going to be fired up tomorrow.

    Game over? My stream must be behind, lol.
    Great. I was hoping Buff would pull that one out and rest on their laurels tomorrow.

  167. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This:

    What the chart below shows is – for each coach in all years that he coached – the difference between league-wide save percentage and the save percentage each team expected given the shots they allowed.

    Coach +EXS% YRS
    Lemaire 4.3 7
    Hitchcock 3.4 5
    B. Sutter 2.8 5
    Mactavish 2.0 7
    Julien 2.0 4
    Trotz 1.7 7
    Martin 1.3 6
    Wilson 1.2 6
    Ruff 0.9 7
    Quinn 0.8 4
    Tippett 0.3 6
    Crawford -0.8 6
    Tortorella -1.0 6
    Maurice -1.0 4
    Carlyle -1.3 4
    Gretzky -1.5 4
    Quenneville-1.7 6
    A. Murray -2.3 6
    Babcock -2.3 6
    Laviolette -3.2 5
    Hartley -3.5 4

    As you can see, Lemaire stands out, though it would be interesting to see how the shot location chart looks for Hitchcock’s teams. Bob Hartley brings up the rear for coaches who coached four seasons or more – his poor performance may be entirely due to having Ilya Kovalchuk on the ice most of the game.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish: Sheahan is a pylon. I think with the year we are having there will be other suitors what would like to come play for our team

    How have you seen him on the PK?

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    TwinkleMoFoToes: He is referring to Josh Anderson.I am on board with this.

    So my targets are:

    1. Miles Wood, with salary retained.I would try and go Chiasson and Marody for Wood & Michael McLeod – who would be opposed?

    2.Josh Anderson and Marko Dano for JP & Caleb Jones – thoughts?

    3.Josh Archibald for Gerald Mayhew with Minnesota, he is ripping up the AHL.I am convinced there is a player there.

    4.I would love to get Austin Wagner out of LA as well, but due to Conference, likely impossible.

    So what is out there as Centre possibilities?Trevor Lewis?Anyone else come to mind?This is a reason I have also circled Michael McLeod, but I suspect he is more of a RW, but having the bros on this team is intriguing….

    I don’t see how that first deal would interest Jersey at all, even as disappointing as Michael McLeod has been. Miles Wood is the best player in that deal and Chiasson likely have negative value. The Oilers would be the one that would need to retain salary on Chiasson I would think.

    As much as McLeod hasn’t scored as much in the AHL as Marody did last year, I think McLeod, given pedigree, has more value.

    Could be wrong.

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie scores mid-way through the second to get Halifax back in it and cut the lead to 3-1 (he’s plus 1).

  171. Oil2Oilers says:

    A lot of Old timey music lover’s in these parts. I for one still enjoy a good album. My favorite album of the year is Jamie by Brittany Howard. Some of you may be familiar with her work as the lead singer for Alabama Shake’s.

    The album is so strong that my favorite track, Short & Sweat, isn’t even a single yet. A tremendous album.

    Jaime https://g.co/kgs/FiDjjX

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Persson played 12:20 last night. Benning is averaging 13:42. Just saying.

    Fair point but I think, generally, his 5 on 5 time for those games were in line with his partner (Russell – who did get boosted with PK minutes).

    His TOI stood out among the others with the major gap between him and the other 5.

    Benning doesn’t PK much but I think Playfair would be comfortable with him in the last 10 minutes of a one-goal game – clearly not with Persson last night.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Detroit is clearly out.

    From some accounts Blashill and Athanasiou have butted heads a bit over the years.

    Does Puljujarvi plus a Lagesson not get this player? Yes, now, Jesse doesn’t help Detroit this year but that doesn’t really matters.

    We would need to send some cap their way or get them to retain to make it work but that can be worked out.

    Athanasiou is not having a good year but he is at 0.5 PPG which isn’t terrible and, that speed, my goodness that speed.

    $3M and an RFA.

    He’s -31 this year……… have NOT looked in to reasons for that.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen:
    If Klef is actually out tomorrow or for any length of time this is a huge blow. Could we at last call up lagesson then.

    Id sure like to see Benson replace Gagner for a few games.

    Bottom 6 was pretty good. Granland had a very good game and the penalty given to him was garbage.. just checking. He was critical in that third period.

    Leon has to teach Haas how to not get bumped and toppled over on his backside everytime he has possesion in the offensive corners.

    But let’s face it Koskinen won us that game.

    Klef is good to go tomorrow – direct from the coach. Neal as well.

    I too would like to see Benson at 2LW at some point and do think we will see that this year.

    At the same time, I can’t advocate for Gagner out now – he’s not bleeding chances or goals against and he is providing depth offence and, frankly, in the absence of Nuge and Kass has filled it well in the top 6. I think he’s starting to gel a bit with Drai because he can think the offensive game with him.

    Nope, of course, Gagner is not an option for term there but I wouldn’t be raring for a Benson/Gagner switch based off recent play.

    Will be fun and exciting to see Benson when he does get the call.

  175. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    duct tape and foil: I think NYI may be gun shy as that Ebs contract (5 x $5.5 million) could be a big problem going forward. Ebs goalscoring in NYI:

    17-18.31 gpg
    18-19.24 gpg
    19-20.12 gpg

    Add an injury prone Hall at 7 x $10 million and that could cripple their cap situation down the road. My guess is that Hall will have to choose between being paid and playing on a winner. Unlikely to get both.

    Well, Colorado has oodles of cap space, and seems destined to be a winner. My bet is Colorado inks him to a 6 year $9.5M contract.

  176. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    This:

    What the chart below shows is – for each coach in all years that he coached – the difference between league-wide save percentage and the save percentage each team expected given the shots they allowed.

    Coach+EXS% YRS
    Lemaire 4.37
    Hitchcock 3.45
    B. Sutter 2.85
    Mactavish 2.07
    Julien2.04
    Trotz 1.77
    Martin1.36
    Wilson1.26
    Ruff0.97
    Quinn 0.84
    Tippett 0.36
    Crawford -0.86
    Tortorella -1.06
    Maurice-1.04
    Carlyle-1.34
    Gretzky-1.54
    Quenneville-1.76
    A. Murray-2.36
    Babcock-2.36
    Laviolette -3.25
    Hartley-3.54

    As you can see, Lemaire stands out, though it would be interesting to see how the shot location chart looks for Hitchcock’s teams. Bob Hartley brings up the rear for coaches who coached four seasons or more – his poor performance may be entirely due to having Ilya Kovalchuk on the ice most of the game.

    I’ve never seen that.

    If you have do you need it again?

    Where is that?

  177. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve never seen that.

    If you have do you need it again?

    Where is that?

    It’s the August 28, 2009 post from that link to the behind the net blog.

    It was an interesting topic of discussion back then.

    I had forgotten that expected save percentage was calculated back then.

    Now, those numbers are more readily available.

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I would add to that package if you could sign Hall to an 8.5 extension.
    My suggestion is Neal, JP, Jones, Benson/Yamamoto, 2020 1st for Hall and 2020 2nd. Do you think Jersey gets a better offer?
    My reasoning is,
    1. Hall has at least 4 more good years in him.
    2. Gives the Oilers 2 outscoring lines. Makes them a perennial contender through the McDavid/Drai years
    3. Does not touch the big 3 d prospects.
    4. Probably only 10 or15 spots between the 2 draft picks.
    5. Don’t see another forward in the Oilers system who will ever do what Hall can in the next 4 years.

    Are you sure on point 1 because he was only worth the cap hit you are willing to give him once in the last 5 years – I’m not sure he was worth the $6M cap hit more than twice (was 65 points worth $6M)?

  179. maudite says:

    Anyone that would toss a 1st round pick prior to expansion draft for a player you’d likely have to protect if you extended…is nuts.

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: What’s the injury to Klefbom?

    It was just a maintenance day – he’s playing tomorrow.

    I’m sure he’s working through something though – but pretty much all players are at this point.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Cave down? Has to be?

    For sure – totally forgot he was up.

  182. tileguy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Oilers wake up back in first place in the Pacific Division.

    That was not a pretty game last night, not at all, but I will not get on board with the “only beat the Kings 2-1 verbal” – as Tippett says, “its hard to win in this league”.

    Mikko came up huge when the team needed him. I won’t dwell but there was one aspect of his game where something was going on last night and hopefully it gets fixed at it caused two pucks in the net.

    I wonder if he gets the game tomorrow? I can see Tippett going back to Smith for one.

    Stop it, just stop it. I wanted to say something last night about your going ones about Mikes glove hand but let it slide. The 2 shots that hit his glove and came out, one was a hard shot from the high slot the other was a screened shot and thankfully his glove was in the right position. This whole weak glove hand story was started by McCurdy from an exhibition game last year where he equated his glove hand to a frying pan. It was true back then but not now. All goalies do not catch and hold every single shot, when they bounce out it is more of good positioning of said glove hand than poor catching skills. Mikko has flashed the leather many times this year, In Mikko we trust!

  183. Reja says:

    yeraslob: Game over?My stream must be behind, lol.
    Great.I was hoping Buff would pull that one out and rest on their laurels tomorrow.

    I grew up in the west end when elmwood was the edge of town. The schmucks that cheered for the Flames ( The suckers for punishment and pain) got what they deserved. Nobody was a actual fan of the Canucks, everybody liked good old Alberta Boy Stan Smyl how could you not.

  184. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Well, Colorado has oodles of cap space, and seems destined to be a winner. My bet is Colorado inks him to a 6 year $9.5M contract.

    Mr Hall is a corker for sure, I’m starting to think we should hope someone in the Pacific or West signs him.

    The contract will almost certainly be a bad one for the team, contender talk or not.

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: JT Miller was mentioned in the summer.

    The price was a 2020 1st.If Holland had offered it, I wonder which first, Vancouver’s or Edmonton’s Brisebois would have taken.

    And if there was a bidding war, the price would have been higher.

    It also cost Vancouver their third round pick in 2019 (I believe we chose Konovalov) – my initial though is that it may have “cratered” the Lucic trade but that pick is 2020.

    What other ramifications would it have had to fit in the $5.25M?

    Chiasson wouldn’t be signed – that’s easy and good but what about the other $3M?

    Not saying it wouldn’t have been a good move – just kind talking out loud.

  186. Lowetide says:

    No one has mentioned Genesis “Lamb Lies Down on Broadway” yet, so I must. People People. LOOK AT THIS:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlGnv_Mxnko

    It is so beautiful.

  187. Reja says:

    The Canucks are being built to flop their way into the playoffs. Oilers are built for the playoffs Holland is going to pull the trigger soon.

  188. Scungilli Slushy says:

    You know, this season is ripe for the picken.

    There isn’t a truly dominant team in the league outside of maybe the Caps. And they have a history of one Cup and playoff fails.

    Boston I just read is running a red hot PDO, and much to surprise is not cycling successfully as it might look like.

    Certainly the Oilers are wobbly, maybe they can move the dial quicker than it might seem.

    Of course the cap is an issue, but other teams still make moves, it isn’t impossible and doesn’t always gut the future, of course Holland may not be in the same position as others.

    Aggressive moves and adding a 3C and quick scoring 5v5 winger might put the team, assuming health. deep.

    I’m no fan of trading firsts, but anything lower has such a low chance of being a contributor in the NHL I feel driving the thing ahead is a good idea.

    They will lose 1 player in the expansion draft, maybe being too conservative over that isn’t worth it, when things are open in the league and you have talent dying for enough challenge, as long as you can protect the right players.

  189. Reja says:

    LA is taking out the Flames tonight.

  190. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: It also cost Vancouver their third round pick in 2019 (I believe we chose Konovalov) – my initial though is that it may have “cratered” the Lucic trade but that pick is 2020.

    What other ramifications would it have had to fit in the $5.25M?

    Chiasson wouldn’t be signed – that’s easy and good but what about the other $3M?

    Not saying it wouldn’t have been a good move – just kind talking out loud.

    No Chiasson, no Granlund, buy out Gagner….boom.

    Miller is on pace for 85 points.

    For sake of argument, let’s say the 1st round pick is #15.

    What are the chances of getting an 85 point player who will help in the next three seasons at that draft spot?

    The third round pick is just cannon fodder.

    In the epic 2015 draft, only ONE player drafted in the third round has played 100 games.

    The next highest player has 18 games to his credit.

  191. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja:
    LA is taking out the Flames tonight.

    For pizza?

  192. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: It’s the August 28, 2009 post from that link to the behind the net blog.

    It was an interesting topic of discussion back then.

    I had forgotten that expected save percentage was calculated back then.

    Now, those numbers are more readily available.

    Cool.

    I look forward to your report!

  193. JimmyV1965 says:

    maudite:
    Anyone that would toss a 1st round pick prior to expansion draft for a player you’d likely have to protect if you extended…is nuts.

    I’m not advocating we trade the first round pick, I’m not arguing against it either, but any plan to improve the team should not be derailed by the expansion draft. Good teams will lose a good player. That’s reality. Bad teams won’t. We’ve been there and it’s sucks.

  194. OriginalPouzar says:

    Damn, Condors’ audio not working – got to listen to the Heat play by play.

    Great to see Jones back – he’s massive on this team.

    Skinner starting with Wells backing up – not sure what the deal with Starrett is who was back last weekend and played well (much better than either of the kids had been generally).

  195. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: No Chiasson, no Granlund, buy out Gagner….boom.

    Miller is on pace for 85 points.

    For sake of argument, let’s say the 1st round pick is #15.

    What are the chances of getting an 85 point player who will help in the next three seasons at that draft spot?

    The third round pick is just cannon fodder.

    In the epic 2015 draft, only ONE player drafted in the third round has played 100 games.

    The next highest player has 18 games to his credit.

    From what I understand, 2020 is supposed to be an exceptional draft and very deep. Will the 15th pick be as good as JT Miller? Probably not. It’s more likely though than many drafts. It doesn’t preclude the good value of that trade though. The late picks in 2015 are just entering the league now. Way to early to judge those picks.

  196. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: For pizza?

    How about the cute ( girl) woman sitting in the corner, oops wrong decade never mind.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie finishes with the lone goal – plus 1 with 3 shots in a 5-1 loss.

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: I’m not quite following what you are saying.

    Are you saying that Playfair has his own deployment strategy independent of what Tippett wants?

    No, I’m saying the Tippett generally deploys the forwards and Playfair normally deploys the defence and, given what we are seeing with deployment, there must be great communication on the bench in order to deploy as 5 man units.

  199. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sierra: Benning is hurt so often it’s getting difficult to count on him

    When Benning is back, he won’t be hurt…….

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