I saw Ethan Bear make a terrific pass on Saturday night, absolute beauty to Josh Archibald for the Oilers second goal against the Montreal Canadiens. In a world where everything happens at warp speed, the game has slowed for this rookie to the point where he could see the play, execute the play and do it with style. Oh man. Ethan Bear.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Broken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Grasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
- Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
- Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers have outbid the Coyotes for Taylor Hall?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s frustration and the impact it could have on the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers need to figure out five-on-five woes quickly, starting with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
- Lowetide: Who should be the next man up from the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: 10 subscriber questions for Oilers rookie defenceman Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 40 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 16-21-3, 35 points; goal differential -22
- Oilers in 2016: 20-13-7, 47 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2017: 17-20-3, 37 points; goal differential -17
- Oilers in 2018: 19-18-3, 41 points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in 2019: 20-15-4, 44 points; goal differential -3
This year’s Oilers got to 20 wins before Christmas, that’s a helluva feat. Lots of negatives around the team during December, and we can remind ourselves about the five wins at the start of the year. They’re massive today.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 6-4-2, 14 points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in December 2016: 6-2-4, 16 points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in December 2017: 7-4-1, 15 points; goal differential +8
- Oilers in December 2018: 6-5-1, 13 points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in December 2019: 4-6-1, 9 points; goal differential -9
A win tonight and this year’s team can see the 2015 and 2018 team, and perhaps set up a miracle run to respectability by the end of the month. That’s a big ask.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-2-1)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 4-6-1, 9 points in 11 games
If the Oilers can win two of the final three games this month, they’ll finish 6-7-1 and that would have to be considered sweet victory after all that’s gone down in December. Long way to go and disaster lurks around every corner. As always.
OILERS 2019-20
I’m more excited for the Sheahan line than the McDavid trio tonight. Why? You can find players who will have some success alongside 97, but Dave Tippett is at mid-season without another line he can count on. That checking trio is very bad news for Jujhar Khaira because Tippett’s other third line is usually a speed group.
CONDORS 2019-20
Kirill Maksimov, who I ranked No. 12 on this year’s winter top 20, is on another run lately. In November he went 1-3-4 during a four game stretch and in his last three games the young winger is 1-2-3.
When we discuss him, it’s based on our observations of him via boxcars, anecdotes, highlights and scouting reports. He has some nice things but is long shot even now to make the NHL. That said, Ethan Bear was in the same spot back in 2017 when he turned pro.
You never know. And the funny thing is that math does help but isn’t the absolute authority. Here are the leading rookie points-per-game numbers for Oilers F prospects in the AHL at age 20 since 2004:
- Tyler Benson 2018-19: 68, 15-51-66 (.97)
- Rob Schremp 2006-07: 69, 17-36-53 (.77)
- Magnus Paajarvi 2011-12: 34, 7-18-25 (.74)
- Marc Pouliot 2005-06: 65, 15-30-45 (.69)
- JF Jacques 2005-06: 65, 24-20-44 (.68)
- Kailer Yamamoto 2018-19: 27, 10-8-18 (.67)
- Teemu Hartikainen 2010-11: 66, 17-25-42 (.64)
- Kyle Brodziak 2004-05: 56, 6-26-32 (.57)
- Slava Trukhno 2007-08: 64, 14-21-35 (.55)
The success is Kyle Brodziak in this group, and that may tell us something about the two current prospects listed here. Benson has the wider range of skills (in my opinion) and perhaps will have a better career. One thing is certain: No one had a first year pro like Benson in the years 2004+. His season was the best in the group. I will tell you Brodziak has one thing in common with Ethan Bear. At the 2007 training camp and preseason, he blew past a plethora of first-round picks and won a roster spot with ease. Perhaps one of the keys in winning an NHL job in today’s league is blowing away your previous fitness numbers and then flattening preseason competition.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We start the week strong at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Thomas Drance from The Athletic-Vancouver will start the party at 10:20, we’ll talk about the Canucks, their brilliant young roster and expectations for the season. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will pop in at 11 to preview the Oilers story for tonight’s game and we’ll talk some NFL, too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Bull$hit
Bull$hit
I generally agree with your player expectation assessments with some minor comments and one major comment.
Nuge has performed below my expectations, Haas is now beginning to play as I had hoped (not knowing what he was all about really to start the year).
Draisaitl’s year has been Jekyll and Hyde. The first ~ 4 weeks were excellent – one of the best players in the league – complete game, possible Selke talk justifiable. So strong on the puck. Then something happened. Now he is a massive defensive liability for several weeks straight. Making very poor decisions with the puck, losing defensive coverage almost every shift and “lazy” play – big loops; not stops and starts. Sure he is still getting points, but he is a very offensively talented player playing next to McD, so, I suspect that aspect of his game will continue. But for long-term Oilers success one would have to think he needs to be 2C at some point. Drive a line by himself. But his numbers in that role are very poor too.
People will argue he has been played too much and is tired, and that can explain part of it, but I don’t think it is the full explanation. I think a lot of it is mental, not physical. That to me is a massive concern.
Hopefully he turns things around after the “break”.
Meant to say “turning your skate towards the net”. And I’m no expert in skating, but it definitely looks like he stretched his foot out to kick that puck. The way he was stopping was not natural at all. Besides, he didn’t even try to use his stick there at all.
Whatever. The reffing in hockey in general is atrocious. They don’t call the game as intended, but instead manage it. They’re basically handicapping the game so the less skilled players have a chance. And when they screw up or miss something (because even when calling by the book, not everything will be caught due to human error), they call phantom calls to make up for their mistakes, which gives the league a bad rep due to calls being made on standard hockey plays that are almost never called.
It infuriates the fans, the players, and gives the whole game experience a bad vibe.
And this somehow gets worse in the playoffs where they let lesser skilled players get away with even more infractions and manage the game in the name of “balance”.
I watch a lot of hockey. The reffing sucks across the league. Good teams overcome it.
Actually, if you just turn your skate, I don’t think it’s considered a kicking motion. He may have kicked at it, but it’s hard to tell.
Did anyone address the reffing in the post-game interviews?
Game management to the fullest. Calling phantom calls to even out other calls is the NHL’s MO. Especially against the Oilers. Bettman hates them the most.
Huh?
I think you need to take a deep breath. And relax.
No it’s not! Turning your skate is called “kicking”. If the skate was knocking the puck in when the player is skating by or attempting to stop, that is a deflection. Intentionally turning your skate towards the net just as the puck hits it is “kicking”
Sure the oilers didn’t play a great game, and the nucks May have still somehow won the game, but it was still 2-1 oilers before that mistaken goal and the oilers were keeping the game close.
You and Harper should get a room.
Scungilli Slushy,
It’s ok, its heady stuff. Don’t blame yourself, we all have a lot of catching up to do.
I suspect they feel they have to carry the team on their shoulders. Lots of pressure. Then they start to force plays.
The reffing was bad. But they missed calls both ways. Don’t see how you blame this loss on the refs.
You could point your finger at Drai. It was his man who scored the first 2 goals.
Or you could blame McDavid. He was in the penalty box for the game winner. Looked like a penalty to me. He interfered with the Canuck forward before Haas got to the bench.
It’s Christmas. So I am going to focus on the pleasant surprises in the 1st half of the year. If we accept the premise that McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Kassian, Klefbom, Larrson, Nurse and Russell are playing at expected levels, is there an Oiler that has really delivered below this blogs expectations?
I see Koskinen, Bear, Haas, and lately Jones as delivering above expected levels.
What are your thoughts?
Harpers Hair,
How said is your life that you spend years, years making selective appearances with selective arguments, circular and ad hominem, on a hockey blog for not even your own team just to try to wind ppl up? Like, I am an oilers fan and barely spend time on an oilers blog. And can’t imagine trying to find a flames blog. And then joining it. And then posting on it. You’re either really sad or really miserable or some combination of the two.
The puck drops down, and lands, before Horvat clearly and deliberately moves his skate towards the puck to kick/push it in.
He has very deliberately kicked the puck in and the refs and the league should be embarrassed that they reviewed that and let the goal stand.
If the ref had called that no goal on they ice they would also have absolutely upheld it. They never want to change their decisions because they hate the video review.
Worst quality officials in pro sports
So, have any helped other than Drai?
Yes.
It’s why Crosby and Malkin don’t play on the same line? Why is this so hard to figure out?
you say this a lot.
Get off the blog Harper
Exactly.
The Canucks played it perfectly.
Wrist surgery
Just about to watch the highlights.
The Canucks goal was clearly kicked in as per the big screen highlights.
We were sat behind the oilers bench for the McDavid too many men line change. Could be wrong but absolutely did not look like too many men – Connor has just put a foot down when the weather puck came past him. If that’s TMM so are 5 other line changes a game
You seem like a nice person.
But it wasn’t.
There was no distinct kicking motion.
It is quite allowable to turn your skate to deflect the puck.
The on ice officials and the command centre both agreed it was a good goal.
Stop whining.
Fuck off Harper, I’ve had enough of you
If all you have to do is neutralize one line, the game plan becomes pretty clear and very achievable.
No.
The Oilers have only one line.
Many teams actually have three or four.
Yup. Even HH has to be a little embarrassed to have the refs overlook a blatant no-goal for them.
The refs always suck. It’s like there’s an invisible possession arrow depending on the last call and/or the game score.
But that is not to say the Oilers aren’t a bad team again. They are bad, and getting worse. We haven’t even gotten to the part where the cracks in the confidence appear and the effort drops. Yikes!
I give them credit for the work ethic this year but the recipe for wins is still 97-29 and red hot goalie. They’ve just got nuthin else goin on.
Fk me that PK shift by Nuge was Alarming. Those are shifts that push GMs to pulling triggers
I’m not sure I’ve ever read something like that before.
If I get it, you mean neutralize the other team’s best players, and then outscore the others as well? Is that right?
Which is precisely why they eventually need to be split up if the team is ever going to be successful.
The Oiler broadcast are such wimps
He caught an edge (he was blatantly tripped)
The too many men was close ( it was ridiculous)
I think I seen a kicking motion (it was obvious to all)
The Boston broadcast against Washington, these guys feared nothing. They literally trashed the refs all game. Every scrum or hit was Washington with another cheap shit. Amazing difference.
Every Canucks fan around me thought it was kicked in. Cue unbridled joy when the refs once again decide to uphold their shit decision
could we start with ref’s first.
In 13 games in December, the oilers scored 3 or more goals four times!!!!
Blame the refs. Blame whoever. This team is just not good enough.
We knew it in October but a hot start to the season blew our expectations out of whack.
I predicted 82 points, and I’m sticking with it
This.
I was wondering when you might show up.
oilersfan,
I’ve noticed that he holds onto the puck too long now and loses puck battles because of it. Needs to make quicker passes.
The both of them are forcing plays to the point now that almost nothing is working.
They need some chill back in their game. More sneaky.
Fire Holland tonight
If the Oilers ever make the playoffs…this is exactly how to beat them
Neutralize McDavid and Draisaitl and beat them up with depth.
Not sure how they could be tired yet they look tired. They had like 4 shifts in the 3rd before the last 2 min. Battle level real low
Hey guys the team has some blame ergo refs cannot have any blame, it’s basic logic!
The team is a disgrace
Holland is an idiot, incompetent
Fire him
The baby man has no art to his offensive game. That look off was worse than what I would try. No wonder he can’t score enough.
He also can’t raise the puck over 18 inches healthy or not. Given all goalies play the bottom half of the net, one notices the snipers can hit the open top half. And the really good guys have ‘practiced’ release points that are unexpected.
Crazy Pedestrian,
Unfortunately, as we are used to, none of this will happen.
Even when they promised to look into the holding of McDavid, when Edmonton was in the playoffs, those calls only lasted a month in the following season before tapering off.
It will be worth it if Tippett gives the refs hell in the after game presser. Hopefully The “kicked in goal” will now become infamous on sports networks as an embarrassment of the league, and Bettman will be forced to address it along with the shitastic reffing that has been going on. At least, that is the hope.
Not a single other sport has this degree of reffing issues.