Reasonable Doubt

by Lowetide

Growing up Jehovah’s Witness had some downbeat but there are positives from being raised on the outskirts of society. I’m probably more open to ideas that are unpopular or less traveled, while also being prone to wild goose chases (thus my many disagreements over the years with posters Logic and Reason).

For instance, I’m not sure trading Jesse Puljujarvi next summer is a good idea. If a team offers 100 cents on the dollar, fine. However, chances are the return will be disappointing and there’s every chance JP will have success in his new city. If I’m Holland, I at least think about letting the summer pass, go through the draft with the situation unsettled.

Maybe some of JP’s Oilers teammates can spend some time with him, convince him he’s needed. Puljujarvi isn’t evil, in fact he appears to be a good citizen. So, whatever the problem, I’d spend 2020 trying to solve it. There’s no good ending to trading JP for a second round pick or a mid-level prospect. No to Julien Gauthier, no to Lias Andersson.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
  • Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanBroken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanGrasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
  • Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
  • Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
  • Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers have outbid the Coyotes for Taylor Hall?
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s frustration and the impact it could have on the Edmonton Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers need to figure out five-on-five woes quickly, starting with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
  • Lowetide: Who should be the next man up from the Bakersfield Condors?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: 10 subscriber questions for Oilers rookie defenceman Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

CURRENT NHLE’S

Older players are [] and I have ranked each position with the highest to lowest NHLE. So, although Tomas Jurco ranks ahead of Tyler Benson NHLE, we can assume based on age (Jurco will be 27 on Saturday, Benson is 21) that Benson will have the better career.

I believe the most talented forwards are Benson, Lavoie, Yamamoto, McLeod, Marody, Maksimov. I like Rasanen, but his scouting report suggested a two-way center and at 21 these impressive college numbers can’t be trusted as true north.

I think Puljujarvi might be better than all of them. That’s why I don’t trade him.

BAKERSFIELD RE

Back in August, I made some predictions about Condors players and what a reasonable season might look like. Here’s the August verbal and an update:

Shane Starrett. He was a major part of the Condors success last season, it’s reasonable to expect him to build on that and (at some point) make his NHL debut. Update: Injuries have derailed his season. Absolutely terrible timing, and the Condors are having a terrible season partly because Starrett’s backups haven’t been close to good enough.

Evan Bouchard scored eight points in eight AHL playoff games, but didn’t play big minutes. Reasonable should be top 4D minutes in Bakersfield, a feature role on the power play and a point-per-game during the regular season. I also think NHL time is a reasonable expectation. Update: The first half of this season (27, 3-12-15) has been disappointing, although he is among the leading scorers among rookie blue in the AHL. Bouchard’s overall game looks to be shy of NHL-ready but a player with his pedigree could figure it out in a hurry.

Dmitri Samorukov had a breakout season in the OHL, so finding reasonable is difficult. I’m going to say that establishing himself as a solid AHL regular, with a positive even-strength goal differential, is reasonable. Update: Samorukov has covered the bet already, showing himself to be a capable regular in the minors. He is plus-minus zero, that’s a fabulous number on a team that is minus 19 on the year.

William Lagesson had an outstanding AHL debut season, so I’ll suggest an even better goal differential at even strength than he delivered a year ago. Plus NHL time. Update: He got an NHL recall but no games, and has been a strong player for the Condors when he’s in the lineup. Just waiting for the call, he’s bona fide.

Cooper Marody rocked the casbah in year one, I think reasonable expectations should include 25+ NHL games and over a point-per-game in the AHL. Update: It has been a miserable season so far, with Marody’s numbers (23, 5-9-14) a mere shadow of his rookie campaign. He is 2-5-7 in his last eight games, so that’s progress.

Tyler Benson should increase his point total and demonstrably improve his goal total in Bakersfield. I’ll say 25 AHL goals over an entire season, and 25 NHL games, too. Update: He’s on pace for 18 goals and leads the Condors with 21 points in 27 games. Most encouraging, Benson’s points have come with multiple linemates, meaning his reliance on Marody to create offense a year ago no longer applies. Quality first half.

Kailer Yamamoto might be the most interesting player in this group. He scored 10 goals in 27 games a year ago, I think 25 goals based on a 68-game season in reasonable. No NHL games expected, if he earns them that’s a positive arrow. Update: Yamamoto’s scouting reports are fire, he’s been a buzzsaw and draws penalties on the regular (sources Wilde and Original Pouzar). His seven goals in 22 games projects to 21.6 goals over 68 games. He’s close, in my opinion Yamamoto and Benson are both NHL-ready.

Ryan McLeod has terrific speed and two-way acumen, so his emerging as an AHL regular is reasonable. Offensively, 25+ points over 68 games seems reasonable (assuming he gets a regular shift). Update: McLeod has 3-8-11 in 27 games, that’s a little ahead of the pace I suggested would be reasonable. Solid start. Wrote about him here.

Kirill Maksimov is a terrific goal-scorer and Jay Woodcroft’s ability to unlock rookies was a key to Benson, Marody and their seasons. He’s a scorer, but overestimating goal scorers is the easiest mistake in reasonable expectations. I’ll say 20 goals in 68 games for Maksimov. Update: He has scored 2-6-8 in 24 games, that projects to six goals over a 68-game schedule. He is 1-2-3 in his last two games. Playing time in feature roles has been an issue but I think he’s going to have a big second half.

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Wilde

Also, LT, I didn’t say this at the time (or I’ve forgotten) but I think the point-per-game mark for Bouchard was above reasonable. We have so very few comparables in terms of production, but in Ellis’s case he scored 34 points in his opening 68 games (20, 21) in Milwaukee.

OriginalPouzar

Konovalov will be playing in the KHL all-star game.

jtblack

AGE. Lafrienierre turned 18 in OCT. He will play the whole season as an 18 yr old.

Byfield is still 17 and wont turn 18 until August. these 2 players are 10 months apart; yet will be picked #1 & #2.

No point except to say some.kids are almost 1 year younger than some of their draft peers

OriginalPouzar

innercitysmytty:
OriginalPouzar,

The WJC where Connor turned 18 right after the tournament he had 11 points in 7 games and was 3 months younger than AL is now. Connor was 16 going on 17 when he had 4 points.

Right – my math was off by a year – thank you.

Still, premise is the same – even in that 11 points in 7 games, I don’t recall McDavid being the centerpiece and as dominant as AL was today. Just saying. Of course, it was only one game as well.

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair: Not sure why you are so insular and defensive.

Both Team Canada and the Oilers will have to deal with Hoglander in the near future.

Is it now verboten to discuss players on other teams because it offends you?

I heard somewhere that the entire Pacific division all equally have the best prospects in their systems but especially the Canucks, and are all trending up with better season odds than the lowly Oilers.

It’s been covered ad nauseum. Followed by the clear fluid. So covered.

who

OriginalPouzar: To the proposition at the end, 6 months ago there was the though of attaching Ethan Bear to the Milan Lucic to try and get a semi-clean riddance of that contract.

Oubviously not quite the same scenario as Bear wasn’t refusing to play in the organization but Jesse is younger than Bear and higher pedigree than Bear.

Yeah, my first choice is JP playing for the Oilers next season.
But if he refuses to sign with Edmonton, I wonder if a disposition of the entire Neal contract would be a better return than anyone we can get in trade for him.
For instance, would a rebuilding team like Ottawa be willing to take on Neals contract in return for another young, talented player.

innercitysmytty

OriginalPouzar,

The WJC where Connor turned 18 right after the tournament he had 11 points in 7 games and was 3 months younger than AL is now. Connor was 16 going on 17 when he had 4 points.

Genjutsu

OriginalPouzar: It was a solid play by Lavoie (and he definitely should have an assist) but Ferarro was pretty over-the-top with his praise.Don’t get me wrong, I love(d) the attention Lavoie was getting but I didn’t think it was that spectacular a play.

Solid first game for Lavoie.That line made a positive impact on most shifts.

Agreed. Lavoie looks like the player we need big, can skate, good hands, volume shooter.

Glad Holland kept his powder dry. If they can pick up a skill C with the first and another skill W with the second I’ll be much more comfortable about the future.

OriginalPouzar

nelson:
IiIHF has yet to give Lavoie credit for his assist. Fairly obvious one (Ferraro was duly impressed) so assume they will get it fixed

It was a solid play by Lavoie (and he definitely should have an assist) but Ferarro was pretty over-the-top with his praise. Don’t get me wrong, I love(d) the attention Lavoie was getting but I didn’t think it was that spectacular a play.

Solid first game for Lavoie. That line made a positive impact on most shifts.

nelson88

IiIHF has yet to give Lavoie credit for his assist. Fairly obvious one (Ferraro was duly impressed) so assume they will get it fixed

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: Not sure why you are so insular and defensive.

Both Team Canada and the Oilers will have to deal with Hoglander in the near future.

Is it now verboten to discuss players on other teams because it offends you?

I was neither defensive nor was I, or am I, offended.

Just a bit mystified by a random comment that had zero to do with the content of the blog or any ancillary conversation that was going on.

The only possible connection I can make is a wild attempt to show that a rival organization also has prospects that can make plays – quite certain we all knew that.

Do what you will.

OriginalPouzar

SwedishPoster:
While the WJCs are nice and all Oiler prospects showed well. The Oiler prospect of the night was Filip Berglund who scored a hattrick and added an assist for good measure in a 7-0 win for his SHL team tonight. That’s a solid night for a defensively strong D don’t you think?

Great stuff – is there a reason for the offensive explostion?

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

OriginalPouzar:

Robertson: I remember some Oiler fans wanting him chosen with the Lavoie pick this back June.

If his size isn’t an issue at the pro level, the Leafs have a solid prospect.

I’ll go on record (and have elsewhere) saying that he’s who I wanted with that pick. The pace he plays with and the effort he gives in combination with his sick hands and his shot are precisely what our Cs need on their flanks. Solid trash-talker from what I’ve read, too 😛

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar,

Umm because this is a Canucks blog.

OriginalPouzar

who: 18 yr old vs 17 yr old.
Apples and oranges.

McDavid turned 18 during the month of the tournament where he had 4 points in 7 games.

Lafriniere turned 18 like 3 months before the tournament where he had 4 points in 1 game.

I’m not sure that 3 month age difference changes the fruit, does it?

Or is my math wrong?

OriginalPouzar

Pescador: How did it turn out?

It was a lengthy 5 on 3 and Finland didn’t score.

OriginalPouzar

LadiesloveSmid:
I’d call up Benson & Yamamoto. Maybe Marody too.

The team sucks. Could do without Khaira, Sheahan, Neal, Archibald. They’re dropping like a bag of bricks right now, not like they’re risking much. Playing the worst hockey of their season.

Archibald and Sheahan are trending up right now, not dropping, aren’t they?

In particular Archie who has settled in and is a very effective player at evens – a fourth line player but an effective one.

If anyone is to go down for two call-ups, it has to be P. Russell and Granlund over Sheahan and Archie, in my opinion.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: That was a beauty.

Not sure why the comment is made on this platform or why my post was responded to mind you.

Doesn’t seem like the right platform to post out of nowhere about something that has nothing to do with the Oilers and nothing to do with Team Canada.

Not sure why you are so insular and defensive.

Both Team Canada and the Oilers will have to deal with Hoglander in the near future.

Is it now verboten to discuss players on other teams because it offends you?

Rube Foster

LT,

You have the patience of a father.

I am on board the DO NOT trade Jesse P Train – unless Holland can get full value back, which appears doubtful. A full year of development in the mother land might just be what young Mr. Puljujarvi needs to fulfil his massive potential.

Bling and Woodguy’s Armia comp have me hopeful as the new decade dawns. A confidant and comfortable, fast, gigantic Fin, with a nice offensive touch would sure look nice riding shotgun with the Nuge.

Brother Reja, C’mon man, give the Finnish man child one more chance. Don’t you remeber what life was like when you were 20? A new decade, a new chapter.

Professor Q

I think Holland may have been thinking of taking Seider before Detroit took him, and maybe Dach before that. He didn’t seem too intrigued with the USNTD players. But it’s neither here nor there.

OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair: Canucks prospect Hoglander.
Also scored a lacrosse goal recently in league play

That was a beauty.

Not sure why the comment is made on this platform or why my post was responded to mind you.

Doesn’t seem like the right platform to post out of nowhere about something that has nothing to do with the Oilers and nothing to do with Team Canada.

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
So that Zegras kid has some sick mitts and that Kaliyev fellow can shoot the pill.

Who knew?

and that Broberg kid can skate and defend and is super young. Who knew?

We knew those kids were good but we also know the Broberg kid is good.

It will be years before we know if Holland made the “right pick”.

OriginalPouzar

Woodguy: Outsde of 97, 29 and 93 there isn’t a slot on the forward roster that doesn’t need upgrading imo.

44 is ok at 2.5MM or less.

The spot with Stauffer was interesting as one person was talking about what the player should get and the other was talking about what the player is going to get.

Neither were wrong.

OriginalPouzar

who:
Couldn’t agree more with your assessment of JP. If we really want a winger to help drive the 2nd line this player is still the best bet in the Oilers system.
Now maybe that doesn’t say much about ourorganization, but looks like most of the high end prospects are defenseman. JPis still the best forward prospect in the system and my hope is he comes back to Edmonton next year. I am fine with Holland sitting on his hands rather than trading JP for a 2nd rounder or B level prospect.
However, if that bridge has been burned, do you think it is possible to package him with Neal for a complete riddance of Neals contract?
I think that trade has more value to the Oilers than Gauthier or Anderson.

To the proposition at the end, 6 months ago there was the though of attaching Ethan Bear to the Milan Lucic to try and get a semi-clean riddance of that contract.

Oubviously not quite the same scenario as Bear wasn’t refusing to play in the organization but Jesse is younger than Bear and higher pedigree than Bear.

teddyturnbuckle

What a Strange season for Draisaitl. First 20 games he was the heart trophy ? leader and now he drags down any line he is on. Splitting up the top line wasn’t about spreading out the offence, it was about trying to get Leon into a center position so maybe he might play better defensively. Who knows what Tippet will do next. If he is that tired then scratch him. Maybe the Oilers win against Vancouver if he was scratched. He was -3 that game including en. He is the worst +- player in the league over the last 20 games and it isn’t close. I noticed when he was interviewed between periods the other night he sounded completely void of confidence.

geowal

Just back from Sweden-Finland, opted to see this game as the best one in Trinec before seeing Canada games in Ostrava later.
Watched Broberg a lot, my thoughts:
-clearly the #1pk dman, including 2 of 3 shifts on the 5 on 3, lots of calls in this game
-quite short shifts much of the game especially in 2nd
-played most of the night on his offside, I’m not sure if he started there, seemed to be an injury at one point. While he was fine there, when he was on the left side was like unbottling his skating, those were the times he rushed, like he wasn’t sure about trying from the right side.
-reminds me of Nurse in a lot of ways, for better or worse
-good battle, uses size and reach fairly effectively. Didn’t win them all, but most.
-defensively was a lot more sound than I expected based on how some people have talked about bu
-one time on the left side blew into the zone and set up an amazing chance that pretty much sealed the player of game nod for Finland’s goalie
-his stature really stands out in this group, I was in row 6 behind the goalie and he has a noticeably bigger frame
-helped with a momentum change shift that ultimately ontributed to Sweden’s tie goal late in the 3rd by the next line up.
-Not really a wow game, but then I’d say that for all of Sweden D. Sandin didn’t seem that noticeable till a few minutes left, but you can see his tools too. But ports bit biased to Broberg

Reja

Harpers Hair: Canucks prospect Hoglander.
Also scored a lacrosse goal recently in league play

More importantly did Bow’s girlfriend use mayo or miracle whip on his leftover turkey sandwich at lunch.

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0,

I remember when McDavid hit the level physically where he became as quick-processing/layered during board play as he’s always been when carrying the puck in open ice; where he essentially has a play to protect himself and the puck for every single approach the checker takes, and a plan to salvage it if he messes up, that was basically when I knew that the Oilers, to an extent, couldn’t fuck this up in terms of his individual results. He made it impossible.

People tend to talk about augmenting McDavid’s offensive game, and I think they’re correct in this, that there’d be much more offensive production from him if there was better (and more) smooth transitions; people talk about good passing D hitting him with speed (or, if they’re more precise, hitting the winger who bumps it to him with speed) but I think, in total, he’ll get more Actual Points if there’s more talent to take advantage of how good he is at retaining possession for the team in the OZ.

Part of that is the ceiling placed on his rush offense by the officiating, but I remember in the preseason/early reg. season of 2017-18 getting over my skis about the Yamamoto-McDavid pairing because of what they were generating out of the cycle. Don’t think I actually posted anything too embarrassing to read now, with hindsight, but I know I was thinking stuff that didn’t end up being real.

I still believe in Yamamoto, but if he was about cashing those types of goals he’d be avoiding the team-wide CF-GF drought on the Condors to a greater degree than he currently is.

Regardless of the supply, the demand is there. If he ever gets those 150-point seasons I’m confident he has in him, it’ll be a live-wire powerplay that’s reminiscent of the one we’re seeing now, and a ton of extra points from the cycle play of a three-player line with a late-20’s-Hornqvist-type player alongside Draisaitl or Nuge or whoever.

(and some empty-net points from a more successful campaign than this, etc)

Oilpower

Woodguy v2.0: The thing Lafreniere has that McDavid didn’t is “man size/strength” compared to his peers.

He’s probably most like Lindros who scored 17pts in 7gp as a 17 year old at this tourney.

Lemiuex scored 10 in 7gp as a 17 year old he was big at that age too.

He’s probably between those two for his career, but closer to Lemiuex barring injury.

He’s not quite as large as Lindros but he’s more skilled.

He’s like a Lemiuex-lite which might make him a top 5 NHL player by the time he’s 20.

So when the Oilers miss the playoffs by one point but win the draft lottery he will be a nice consolation prize. Really help balance the top 6. In this scenario we might as well add that hall comes back on a 3 by 7 million dollar deal, and jp comes over and wins a top six job on merit. And Holland uses the 2021 first round pick to drop the Neal deal.

who

Wilde: Yes it does, the difference between a year and a quarter of a year does matter.

You’re just doing the same arbitrary cutoff without an argument for doing so, imo it should just be imperfect, pure age adjustment with the knowledge that it is imperfect

Making a binary distinction based on whether or not they’re 18 or 17 is the same as making the binary based on which draft year they are

There would MAYBE be something to an argument about the competition they play against, if that wasn’t fluid, but it is.

No idea how it’s even arguable that kids “play against their own birth year all the way through minor hockey, junior hockey, and these international tournaments”. That’s just.. not reality? It’s fluid. There are pools of different age groups and there are exceptions to who’s in which pool.

I agree. Birth year is an imperfect model for comparables. But it’s better than draft year.
I don’t have the energy to argue this but let’s use Lavoie as an example. Is he a better comparable for Barret Haydon? Or Dylan Cozens?

tileguy

SwedishPoster,

Tack, also for pointing out which goals to watch for.

SwedishPoster

https://www.shl.se/gamecenter/qWX-343o15I4Ea/articles/post

Highlights from Berglund’s hattrick game on the link, might need a swedish VPN to watch it. His shot is pretty damn good! As I’ve mentioned before he had a pro ready shot already in juniors but since arriving in the SHL it’s seemed like he hasn’t really focused on improving it but this season he’s added an edge to it and in this game it really shows. His goals are the first, second and fourth plus his shot caused the rebound that leads to the sixth goal.

Woodguy v2.0

OriginalPouzar:
Not many undrafted Canadians make this type of impact on Team Canada – speaking of Lafreniere.

I don’t recall even McDavid making this type of impact in his draft year.

The thing Lafreniere has that McDavid didn’t is “man size/strength” compared to his peers.

He’s probably most like Lindros who scored 17pts in 7gp as a 17 year old at this tourney.

Lemiuex scored 10 in 7gp as a 17 year old he was big at that age too.

He’s probably between those two for his career, but closer to Lemiuex barring injury.

He’s not quite as large as Lindros but he’s more skilled.

He’s like a Lemiuex-lite which might make him a top 5 NHL player by the time he’s 20.

SwedishPoster

Silver Streak:
I watched the Canadian game but flicked over to see Broberg quite often with no luck.
Couldn`t find a stat on his ice time and other stats….WTF was he injured or benched ?

Lavoie played very well….even saw ice with1 goal lead and 2 to play….he does need to develop a better first two strides….

Broberg played about 18 minutes, no PP, sweden’s main PK D, started out pretty quiet 5on5 but imo he defended well all along. Came on from the third when he started making more plays and finished real strong. Got a minus on whatvwas essentially a PP goal, could probably have done a better job cutting off the passing lane but it was Björnfot who lost position who was the main issue.
Was fourth in ice time among D, the three ahead of him were all on the PP(Finland had 12 mins in the sin bin). 5v5 I think he was probably 2nd-3rd in toi. Not dominant but overall a solid start.

Wilde

I’ve now finished all 78 (68 regular, 10 playoff) 2018-19 season Condors games, now I just have to crunch the numbers.

I’m interested to see how much difference there was in each players numbers from my initial sample (~66% of the season) but also now that I have everything in the updated system I can do WOWYs and score adjustment much quicker. Also been picking up the penalties taken and penalties drawn in each of the games, which weren’t there initially but are a pretty weighty portion of the Game Score metric.

Particularly of note will be how much Yamamoto was drawing penalties last year. Since I saved a bunch of the prospect-stats (RIP) stuff from Bakersfield last year, the estimated time-on-ice totals will fill in a ton of detail on how much players like him (and Hebig) changed when they were up and down the lineup.

Another player that I want to look at is Jakob Stukel, whose 5-on-5 numbers in the ECHL would be nice to have. He’s generally stood out this year by eye (scored a nutty goal last game) and actually didn’t produce poorly at all in the 10 games he played last year. I tend to think that there’s a ton of ECHL players that should really just be full-time AHLers, but fall into familiar circumstances with regards to attempted roster alchemy.

SwedishPoster

While the WJCs are nice and all Oiler prospects showed well. The Oiler prospect of the night was Filip Berglund who scored a hattrick and added an assist for good measure in a 7-0 win for his SHL team tonight. That’s a solid night for a defensively strong D don’t you think?

Woodguy v2.0

Sierra: After all these years we are still saying the same thing. Same as it ever was.

*pours 5 fingers of methylhydrate*

Silver Streak

I watched the Canadian game but flicked over to see Broberg quite often with no luck.
Couldn`t find a stat on his ice time and other stats….WTF was he injured or benched ?

Lavoie played very well….even saw ice with 1 goal lead and 2 to play….he does need to develop a better first two strides….

Wilde

who: Doesn’t matter.
I’ve argued this before but I’ll try again.
These kids play against their own birth year all the way through minor hockey, junior hockey, and these international tournaments. And yet some people want to compare them by draft year. Makes no sense.

Yes it does, the difference between a year and a quarter of a year does matter.

You’re just doing the same arbitrary cutoff without an argument for doing so, imo it should just be imperfect, pure age adjustment with the knowledge that it is imperfect

Making a binary distinction based on whether or not they’re 18 or 17 is the same as making the binary based on which draft year they are

There would MAYBE be something to an argument about the competition they play against, if that wasn’t fluid, but it is.

No idea how it’s even arguable that kids “play against their own birth year all the way through minor hockey, junior hockey, and these international tournaments”. That’s just… not reality? It’s fluid. There are pools of different age groups and there are exceptions to who’s in which pool.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

who,

Except Connor played with the age group one year older since he was like 11 years old.

who

Wilde: They’re three months apart

Doesn’t matter.
I’ve argued this before but I’ll try again.
These kids play against their own birth year all the way through minor hockey, junior hockey, and these international tournaments. And yet some people want to compare them by draft year. Makes no sense.

Wilde

who: 18 yr old vs 17 yr old.
Apples and oranges.

They’re three months apart

who

OriginalPouzar:
Not many undrafted Canadians make this type of impact on Team Canada – speaking of Lafreniere.

I don’t recall even McDavid making this type of impact in his draft year.

18 yr old vs 17 yr old.
Apples and oranges.

ArmchairGM

If Holland wants to convince Puljujarvi to come back he’ll have to bring in a guy like Koivu or Mikael Granlund to partner with him, both for mentorship off the ice and a skilled linemate on the ice. I don’t see it working otherwise.

Koivu is nearly done but still has what it takes to be a successful 3C for another year or two, I think Holland could pick him up in the summer on a cheap 1-year deal. Granlund’s production has been poor ever since he went to NSH, I think he’d take a pay cut on a short term contract to prove himself again.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Derek,

Saved a crucial PK at the very least.

OriginalPouzar

Not many undrafted Canadians make this type of impact on Team Canada – speaking of Lafreniere.

I don’t recall even McDavid making this type of impact in his draft year.

Derek

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Nice save by the coach!

That catch by the coach could’ve just saved the game if Gord and Ray are interpreting it correctly.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Nice save by the coach!

OriginalPouzar

Broberg out there for 3 on 3 OT.