Working on a Building

Bill James once wrote a wonderful piece on the Minnesota Twins during the early years of the WS team’s development. It was called “That was One Ugly Baby” and detailed a rotten season played by a plethora of youngsters who would one day bring glory to Minneapolis, led by an unassuming man named Tom Kelly as manager.

Summary: It didn’t look too good when those young kids arrived and kicked the ball all over the yard, but just a few years later the organization won it all. The emergence of Frank Viola, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti and Tom Brunansky in 1982 gave the club an enormous lift, later aided by the addition of Kirby Puckett (1984) and some astute trade additions.

Point being it’s very difficult to identify the exact moment when a team turns true north. One of the things we can count is prospects who develop into actual NHL players.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers waive veterans Markus Granlund, Brandon Manning in Saturday shakeup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
  • Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending depth chart in need of talent injection
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
  • Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanBroken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanGrasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
  • Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
  • Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS

I do a ‘reasonable expectations’ series every August-September, it’s my best guess about how things are going to go in the coming season. I pegged the Oilers to finish with 88 points, their overall goal differential at 239-250 (it’s at 116-128 currently). I had Connor McDavid scoring 48 goals and 116 points, Leon getting 93 points. James Neal? 18 goals.

You know what I didn’t have? And this is the part where the 1982 Minnesota Twins come in. I didn’t have Ethan Bear scoring 12 points in 41 games, playing like a veteran. That’s an important piece to this season’s story. If Edmonton can add Bear and a couple of others from the ‘not sure’ pile, this season will have served a purpose. Now, making the playoffs is cooler, but credit where due the team gave Ethan Bear a chance to emerge and Evan Bouchard a chance to adjust. There’s value in these things.

ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS

Back in September, I counted 12 ‘actual’ NHL players. There were: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Kassian, Neal, Chiasson, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell, Benning, Koskinen.

I also counted 12 ‘solid hopefuls’ on my RE roster, players who I projected to play more than 35+ games but had some uncertain elements. They were: Evan Bouchard, Joel Persson, Cooper Marody, Jujhar Khaira, Riley Sheahan, Sam Gagner, Markus Granlund, Gaetan Haas, Josh Archibald, Joakim Nygard, Caleb Jones, Mike Smith.

Finally, there were a group of 10 ‘distant hopefuls’ who I projected to play fewer than 35 games. The names included Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Tomas Jurco, Josh Currie, William Lagesson, Colby Cave, Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto, Patrick Russell and Shane Starrett.

Halfway through the season, the actual NHL players have mostly covered the bet, with injuries and slumps having some impact. The hopeful dozen have been a mixture of handbags and gladrags along the way. The distant hopefuls have gifted the roster Ethan Bear, Patrick Russell and possibly the two Sunday recalls (Yamamoto and Lagesson).

Lines and pairings via Wilde and I thank him. Condors won twice on the weekend and in doing so moved up to No. 5 in the AHL Pacific. The band (Benson-Marody-Currie) is back together, Evan Bouchard is playing better and Stuart Skinner stopped just enough shots two win the day. This team lacks the experience of last year’s blue and the steady goaltending of veteran Shane Starrett. I can’t wait to see the new lines and pairings with Manning and Granlund in the mix.

This is correct. It’s important to remember that Ken Holland has no attachment to any draft pick chosen before Philip Broberg. All of these kids are orphans. What’s more, Ken Holland is going to have a different grade on all the prospects. Some of the previous picks he might value more than Peter Chiarelli did, others less so.

I was genuinely surprised by the reaction to the Yamamoto recall. For me, it was basically a coin flip. Benson had the better numbers (my article at The Athletic from yesterday drills down) and the most improvement year over year. That said, Yamamoto’s offense has been improving lately (4-3-7 in his last eight games before recall) and he was the most dynamic player in Bakersfield. Benson (0-6-6 in his last three games) has been delivering more often but owns a different skill set. He’ll get his turn. For Oilers fans, we’re learning what Ken Holland values. The fact it doesn’t match your view, or the view of Peter Chiarelli, should come as no surprise.

As for YKOil’s idea, makes sense. If Brandon Saad is in play, ‘Hawks ask is likely to be young players and there would be a large contract going back (Saad is a $6 million hit). Maybe it’s Gagner and some dollars retained, something like that. I think Jones might be a more likely trade acquisition based on Chicago’s depth chart but that’s a guess.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back to shake off the Christmas rust and begin the quick climb to New Year’s. There’s a good chance we hit the air a little before 10, as the WJ game (Canada versus Germany) probably ends around 9:30. Show officially begins 10 this morning, TSN1260. Chris Meaney from The Athletic will talk NFL at 10:20, Guy Flaming from The Pipeline Show at 10:40 will talk WJ’s and Oil Kings. At 11, Jason Gregor talks Oilers, NFL playoffs and World Juniors. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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187 Responses to "Working on a Building"

  1. HugThePost says:

    The photo for today’s blogpost makes me very worried for Yamo. I don’t know who the other guy is in the pic and perhaps he is a behemoth of a man but Kailer looks like a child in that photo.

    I hope he physically is stronger now because there are a lot of guys in the NHL who are just as fast if not faster than he is and they have 20-40 lb in weight on him.

    Maybe he is here to be showcased for a trade, maybe the Oil hope he can be a plus player to help their turnaround. Either way, godspeed Kailer!

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Cental
    STL 18
    COL 11
    DAL 8

    Pacific
    VAN 6
    VGP 6
    ARI 5

    Wildcard
    WPG 6
    NSH 4

    Out of playoffs
    CGY 4
    MIN 3
    EDM 3
    CHI 0
    ANA -2
    SJS -3
    LAK -5

    VAN beats CGY and takes the division lead. DSF could hang a wet towel on his excitement.

    Rittch got pulled after 3 goals on 7 shots.

    ARI blew a 2-0 3rd period lead to DAL last night. Taylor Hall is a problem everywhere he goes AMIRGIHT?

    WPG slides down into the wildcard race, I expect them to stay in that spot or go out of the playoffs.

    Relevant games tonight: None

    The turtle derby helps EDM. They’re not out of this by a long shot.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Metropolitan
    WSH 19
    NYI 14
    PIT 12

    Atlantic
    BOS 17
    TBY 7
    FLA 7

    Wildcard
    PHI 10
    CAR 9

    Out of playoffs
    TOR 7
    NYR 4
    MTL 3
    CBJ 3
    BUF 1
    OTT -2
    NJD -6
    DET -19

    MTL starting to fade in the Atlantic race.

    Both Florida teams won last night pushing TOR down.

    Some separation starting to come to make it only a 3 team race for the final 2 Atlantic spots.

    Injuries really hurting MTL lately.

    Relevant games tonight: None

    Only NHL game is OTT at PIT (-260). Should be a slam dunk for PIT.

  4. v4ance says:

    Jones and Yamamoto would line up with Chicago’s rebuild but I think that would be an overpay for Saad, even with a cap dump of Neal. That trade could have us regretting it like we have regretted the Petry trade or the Canadiens regretting the Gomez for Ryan McDonagh trade.

    But that is the basic point. If Holland doesn’t value the orphans like Jones or Yamamoto as much as other orphans in the system, they could be gone in a misguided fire sale.

    If it was my decision, Jones & Neal should be enough to get it done but if Yamo is the outgoing piece, package Gagner and or Russell to even out the cap hits. Russell wants to stay in western Canada but Chicago is the United Airlines airport hub with great flight connections so that might get past his NTC.

  5. PennersPancakes says:

    HugThePost:
    The photo for today’s blogpost makes me very worried for Yamo.I don’t know who the other guy is in the pic and perhaps he is a behemoth of a man but Kailer looks like a child in that photo.

    I hope he physically is stronger now because there are a lot of guys in the NHL who are just as fast if not faster than he is and they have 20-40 lb in weight on him.

    Maybe he is here to be showcased for a trade, maybe the Oil hope he can be a plus player to help their turnaround.Either way, godspeed Kailer!

    Givani Smith is listed at 6 2 210lbs while Yamamoto is listed at 5 8 158.

    Yamamoto is going to lose some absolute strength contests but I think he understands that. Its not like he recently shrunk and has to adapt, hes always been undersized and has a play style to maximize that. Im still worried myself but hoping like hell he pans out.

  6. Ben says:

    If you’re fitting Saad’s $6M into the cap for this year and next, you’re shooting your shot. Once they overpay Nurse and Kassian, that’ll be that for space. Is 45-50 points from Saad enough to make this a playoff team next year?

    I don’t like the idea of trading Benson before taking a look at him in the big leagues. At .47 NHLE, there’s a decent chance he brings most of Saad’s offense for a fraction of the cost.

    And your daily reminder that Nurse is not worth $6.5M, which would be the 18th highest cap hit for a defenseman in the entire league–this for a fast-skating, physical guy who doesn’t pass or read well. He’s good, but just not that good.

  7. barry.moore23 says:

    WG,

    Is Arizona going to be able to hang on ? According to Hockey Reference PDO is 100.6, save % .923 (both 5×5). GF (5×5) are +5 scoring chances are below 50%. I know I should be cheering against them but I can’t. We’ll be at the game tomorrow night vs. Blues. Yes, we know our job: yell at the refs 🙂 Hope Mrs. WG and your daughter (what is she about 8 or 9 by now?) are healthy and content this new year. Any pets ??

  8. McSorley33 says:

    As usual , LT puts things in perspective.

    For a lot of us – playoffs this year was a pipe dream.

    The emergence of Bear and the incredible speed of C Jones has been remarkable.

    We need Benson and Kailer to develop into real NHL players. I would like to look at both
    this year.

    Kailer has speed and tenacity.

    Our sole focus needs to be trading pieces Kenny does not want at the deadline for picks. We need way more prospects – at the Forward – position.

  9. PennersPancakes says:

    v4ance,

    With Chicago trading Jokiharju (wish the Oilers could have snuck in) and de Haan/Seabrook injuries it feels like that defense would be their priority. Dont know if its anything more than a day off to rest but Chicago decided to play Connor Murphy, Slater Koekkoek, and Dennis Gilbert while sitting 4M AAV Olli Maata.

    No idea whats going on there to be honest. Bowman is a wild card and who knows what happens.

  10. Nix says:

    Just listened to the Holland interview at the WJC. Of course he has wisdom and experience up the wazoo and this is gonna sound disrespectful as hell but the man cant even form a sentence and sounds like hes having a stroke. Took five minutes to ‘errrr, ahhhh, ummm’ his way into saying ‘yeah thats sports for ya’. Its disturbing.

  11. who says:

    v4ance:
    Jones and Yamamoto would line up with Chicago’s rebuild but I think that would be an overpay for Saad, even with a cap dump of Neal.That trade could have us regretting it like we have regretted the Petry trade or the Canadiens regretting the Gomez for Ryan McDonagh trade.

    But that is the basic point.If Holland doesn’t value the orphans like Jones or Yamamoto as much as other orphans in the system, they could be gone in a misguided fire sale.

    If it was my decision, Jones & Neal should be enough to get it done but if Yamo is the outgoing piece, package Gagner and or Russell to even out the cap hits.Russell wants to stay in western Canada but Chicago is the United Airlines airport hub with great flight connections so that might get past his NTC.

    At first glance, I thought it would be an overpay as well.
    But getting a year and a half of Saad, and more importantly, getting rid of 3 years of Neal, is worth Yamamoto and Jones. Easily.
    Would solve all of the Oilers cap problems with one trade.

  12. Yeti says:

    who: At first glance, I thought it would be an overpay as well.
    But getting a year and a half of Saad, and more importantly, getting rid of 3 years of Neal, is worth Yamamoto and Jones. Easily.
    Would solve all of the Oilers cap problems with one trade.

    But why on earth would Chicago take Neal? It’s completely implausible.

  13. who says:

    Yeti: But why on earth would Chicago take Neal? It’s completely implausible.

    Yep.
    I don’t see Chicago doing it either. Just saying it would be a good move for the Oilers.

  14. Dicky94 says:

    who,

    I can’t see Neil going anywhere. McDavid wanted him to be an Oiler. As for Yamo and Jones, I can see them going to New Jersey. I’m sure Holland and Shero talked about some other players than just Taylor Hall.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ethan Bear was playing like a veteran for the first quarter of the season, however, I would posit that he’s been playing very much like a rookie for the second quarter of the season.

    Along with the “slow down” of McDavid/Drai, Klef, the tending, etc., the slow down in Bear’s play has been a part of the Oilers’ “slump”.

    Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a revelation, playing top 4 minutes, on the right side, moving the puck well and a big part of the team and the future, however, “rookie mistakes” have leaked in to his game and not just here or there but consistently – nightly – multiple times per game.

    This was to be expected given the minutes he’s been playing, top 4 minutes plus PK along with the league now having tape on him.

    At the same time, lets cools our jets on 8 years X $4M. If we can get him on paper for term under $3M, go for it.

  16. norm_klassen says:

    Bear patrol should be qualified but you dont need to just sign him now to a 4 million deal. Every D man needs a body of work and forwards before hanging out millions
    If he explodes for 40 points sure u never know

  17. Ryan says:

    McSorley33:
    As usual , LT puts things in perspective.

    For a lot of us – playoffs this year was a pipe dream.

    The emergence of Bear and the incredible speed of C Jones has been remarkable.

    We need Benson and Kailer to develop into real NHL players. I would like to look at both
    this year.

    Kailer has speed and tenacity.

    Our sole focus needs to be trading pieces Kenny does not want at the deadline for picks. We need way more prospects – at the Forward – position.

    Honest question, what does Kassian get you at the deadline?

  18. Dustylegnd says:

    ARI blew a 2-0 3rd period lead to DAL last night.Taylor Hall is a problem everywhere he goes AMIRGIHT?

    He is a problem in their room

  19. SVR says:

    Most of the discussion on Yamamoto call up, but I’m more intrigued about the swap of Manning and Lagesson.

    Manning is the guy you want sitting in the press box on a nightly basis. I want to get a look at Lagesson, but who sits? With Benning apparently a week or so away, things get even more crowded.

    Gives some credence to the trade is coming theory imo

  20. dustrock says:

    Thought Lavoie played well for Canada today. No real mistakes, good along the boards, made a couple of nice defensive plays.

    Thought he might have tipped Addison’s shot but I guess not.

    He was getting like sub-4th line minutes but got more time today.

  21. v4ance says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ethan Bear was playing like a veteran for the first quarter of the season, however, I would posit that he’s been playing very much like a rookie for the second quarter of the season.

    Along with the “slow down” of McDavid/Drai, Klef, the tending, etc., the slow down in Bear’s play has been a part of the Oilers’ “slump”.

    Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a revelation, playing top 4 minutes, on the right side, moving the puck well and a big part of the team and the future, however, “rookie mistakes” have leaked in to his game and not just here or there but consistently – nightly – multiple times per game.

    This was to be expected given the minutes he’s been playing, top 4 minutes plus PK along with the league now having tape on him.

    At the same time, lets cools our jets on 8 years X $4M. If we can get him on paper for term under $3M, go for it.

    When I first proposed an 8 year extension for Bear in October, I stated that we should try for the “Josi” contract and get him for around $3.25 AAV ($26 mil over 8 years). At that price point, he would be a slightly overpaid bottom pair defenceman but if he maintains as a top 4D, you’re laughing all the way to the bank. If he becomes a top pair D, you’re playing with house money and can apply those “saved” cap dollars (assuming a 1st pair D should be getting $6 mil++) to improve the roster in another area.

    The entire core of the “extend Bear now for 8 years” is you’re gambling that you’ve identified a Top 4 D before the player has gotten enough contract leverage. Use that leverage to sign him to a cap friendly deal. $4 million is not cap friendly. At least not until the cap rises to $100 million.

  22. London Jon says:

    McSorley33:
    As usual , LT puts things in perspective.

    For a lot of us – playoffs this year was a pipe dream.

    The emergence of Bear and the incredible speed of C Jones has been remarkable.

    We need Benson and Kailer to develop into real NHL players. I would like to look at both
    this year.

    Kailer has speed and tenacity.

    Our sole focus needs to be trading pieces Kenny does not want at the deadline for picks. We need way more prospects – at the Forward – position.

    Ethan Bear was surprisingly quick in the fastest skater (pinch of salt) – three tenths faster than Caleb Jones if I remember correctly. Haas was also surprisingly quick.

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    I would be very, very reluctant to trade Jones. A year ago at this time he was our best dman prospect not named Bouchard and he was ahead of Bear. I think I would rather trade Larsson than Jones. I kinda feel like an idiot saying it because Larsson is here and playing well, but he will be gone in 18 months.

    PS. Bear needs to sit and he needs to sit on a regular basis. This league is murder on rookie NHL dmen. They need a break once in awhile.

  24. JimmyV1965 says:

    Yeti: But why on earth would Chicago take Neal? It’s completely implausible.

    There’s no way the Hawks take Neal. I hope I’m so very wrong, but just don’t see it happening.

  25. McSorley33 says:

    Ryan: Honest question, what does Kassian get you at the deadline?

    The attributes that I think get you a 2nd round pick, speed, physical size and reasonably soft hands.make some GM’s drool.

    Now, I could be shooting too high here. But there are soo many teams that think they can at least make the playoffs .

    But if Zach wants to get paid ( and i don’t blame him ) we need to move on so I even take a 3rd round pick in 2020, no?

    4th line tough guy Nicolas Deslaurier garnered a 4th round pick this past June.

    What are your thoughts?

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ryan: Honest question, what does Kassian get you at the deadline?

    It has to be more than a second rounder that is 45OV or worse. I would want a Jones like prospect. Maybe that’s too much.

  27. Wilde says:

    HugThePost:
    The photo for today’s blogpost makes me very worried for Yamo.I don’t know who the other guy is in the pic and perhaps he is a behemoth of a man but Kailer looks like a child in that photo.

    I hope he physically is stronger now because there are a lot of guys in the NHL who are just as fast if not faster than he is and they have 20-40 lb in weight on him.

    Maybe he is here to be showcased for a trade, maybe the Oil hope he can be a plus player to help their turnaround.Either way, godspeed Kailer!

    https://streamable.com/imua5

  28. knighttown says:

    JimmyV1965: It has to be more than a second rounder that is 45OV or worse. I would want a Jones like prospect. Maybe that’s too much.

    Like it or not, he’s tarnished with the McDavid brush. Not dissimilar to Patrick Maroon or even Ty Rattie.

    He was an overpaid 4th liner last year and now he’s a first liner? GMs are pretty reluctant to get fleeced so I think many will shop in a different aisle.

    fwiw; I think he’s a 3rd line talent with a nice dose of grit so a 2/3 is probably value.

  29. Professor Q says:

    What crazy times for my Oilers and Browns.

    We’ll see if either can improve.

  30. Sierra says:

    who: At first glance, I thought it would be an overpay as well.
    But getting a year and a half of Saad, and more importantly, getting rid of 3 years of Neal, is worth Yamamoto and Jones. Easily.
    Would solve all of the Oilers cap problems with one trade.

    Yesterday people were saying the Hawks want prospects not actual NHL defensemen because trading Saad is a cap dump, so why would the Hawks give one second of thought to taking on Neal?

  31. knighttown says:

    Is the bar lower to clear for defense prospects versus forwards simply because we don’t look at boxcars for rookie D?

    Although Jones is the only one of the 9 Oilers defense to have played less than 20% of his time versus elites, he’s dead last at Rel Dangerous F % at -11.9. In whole numbers he’s at 36.4%.

    Persson is +13 rel and 47%

    Benning is -1 and 44%

    So what he seems to have proven is that he can get his ass caved by elites worse than anyone else who we’ve tried at the 3RD slot this year.

    So if we’re trying to identify a guy who can play in the Top-4 can we acknowledge that there’s very little on this years resume that says he’s ready?

    So he gets a pass because of what…eye test? Handicapped because he’s playing offside and with Russ?

    Just curious because it seems like there are 50 guys that could jump in on 3RD and produce in a similar fashion.

    I do like the player but it just seems like the grading system for rookie/prospect defense is much kinder…drowning? No (well maybe but he did make that one nice play)…therefore success.

  32. razor says:

    What if we traded an unsigned Nurse for Saad?

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    McSorley33: The attributes that I think get you a 2nd round pick, speed, physical size and reasonably soft hands.make some GM’s drool.

    Now, I could be shooting too high here. But there are soo many teams that think they can at least make the playoffs .

    But if Zach wants to get paid ( and i don’t blame him ) we need to move on so I even take a 3rd round pick in 2020, no?

    4th line tough guy Nicolas Deslaurier garnered a 4th round pick this past June.

    What are your thoughts?

    If the return for Kassian is a third rounder, something went terribly wrong.

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    barry.moore23:
    WG,

    Is Arizona going to be able to hang on ? According to Hockey Reference PDO is 100.6, save % .923 (both 5×5). GF (5×5) are +5 scoring chances are below 50%. I know I should be cheering against them but I can’t. We’ll be at the game tomorrow night vs. Blues. Yes, we know our job: yell at the refs Hope Mrs. WG and your daughter (what is she about 8 or 9 by now?) are healthy and content this new year. Any pets ??

    Happy New Year Barry!!!

    I always appreciate you and Mrs. Moore yelling at the refs for me in Glendale. Its needed.

    Mrs Woodugy and Woodguyette are great. My girl is 11 in February. (!)

    Mrs Woodguy got a rescue dog 3 years ago that loves her and our girl, but is suspicious of me even though I am the one that feeds him. His name is Pete. Maybe that’s why we don’t get along. 🙂

    Raanta is going to need to be Raanta from last year for them to hang on until Kuemper gets back.

    Since the Hall trade their CF% is up to 49%, but xGF% around 45% and an actual GF% of 44%

    Here is their xGF% broken down by player since the Hall trade:

    Forwards:
    Player xGF%
    Christian Dvorak 60.9
    Conor Garland 60.1
    Taylor Hall 59.0 <—– I blame this fucking guy
    Phil Kessel 52.6
    Nick Schmaltz 46.3
    Clayton Keller 43.9
    Derek Stepan 42.7
    Carl Soderberg 42.2
    Lawson Crouse 40.5
    Vinnie Hinostroza 36.9
    Brad Richardson 28.5
    Michael Grabner 27.9
    Christian Fischer 10.3

    Dmen:
    Player xGF%
    Ilya Lyubushkin 55.5
    Jakob Chychrun 53.1
    Alex Goligoski 49.1
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson 47.0
    Aaron Ness 46.5
    Jason Demers 37.5
    Jordan Oesterle 32.0
    Jordan Gross 31.4

    Looks like they have end of the roster issues with both F and D. Demers has been back for 3 games off an injury and has re-started slow.

  35. ArmchairGM says:

    Serious question: is Saad going to help the Oilers more than Sam Gagner?

    P/60, 2019-20:
    Saad: 1.97
    Gagner: 1.72

    P/60, 2018-19:
    Saad: 1.75
    Gagner: 1.74 (Oilers portion)

    CF% (CF/60 – CA-60), 2019-20:
    Saad: 52.07% (64.38 – 59.27)
    Gagner: 54.23 (61.58 – 51.97)

    SF% (SF/60 – SA-60), 2019-20:
    Saad: 50.18% (35.93 – 35.67)
    Gagner: 57.03% (35.96 – 27.10)

    GF% (GF/60 – GA-60), 2019-20:
    Saad: 45.24% (2.49 – 3.02)
    Gagner: 39.13% (2.22 – 3.45)

    xGF% (xGF/60 – xGA-60), 2019-20:
    Saad: 52.28% (2.86 – 2.61)
    Gagner: 59.88% (2.85 – 1.91)

    HDCF% (HDCF/60 – HDCA/60), 2019-20
    Saad: 52.50% (13.77 – 12.46)
    Gagner: 58.62% (12.56 – 8.87)

    PDO (Sh% – Sv%)
    Saad: 0.985 (6.93 – 91.54)
    Gagner: 0.934 (6.16 – 87.27)

    Both are a bit unlucky, but Gagner is suffering from poor goaltending to a much higher degree. And for a guy supposedly good defensively, Saad’s CA, SA and HDCA numbers are TERRIBLE. And they’ve been bad for 3 seasons now.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8476438

  36. geowal says:

    Fun game against the Germans! Glad to see a victory, hear the (terrible) Canadian goal song and see the flag rise with the whole crowd singing. Going to the quarters!

  37. JimmyV1965 says:

    knighttown: Like it or not, he’s tarnished with the McDavid brush.Not dissimilar to Patrick Maroon or even Ty Rattie.

    He was an overpaid 4th liner last year and now he’s a first liner?GMs are pretty reluctant to get fleeced so I think many will shop in a different aisle.

    fwiw; I think he’s a 3rd line talent with a nice dose of grit so a 2/3 is probably value.

    Interesting that you take this perspective. I see a third line talent who can play with skill and move up and down the lineup. I think he has way more value than Maroon because of his speed. And someone other than Chia is negotiating the deal.

    Chia is an interesting fella. He was perfectly happy to accept a third round pick for Maroon, who had 14 goals and 30 pts in 57 games. Yet he turns around and gives up a third rounder for Alex Petrovic, who was healthy scratched multiple times the year we picked him up, played nine games with us and is now in the minors. I see a disconnect there.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Matej Blümel moving up to the 2nd line for the Czech today.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lines at practice, as per Rishaug:

    Neal McDavid Kassian
    Nygard Draisaitl Yamamoto
    Khaira RNH Gagner
    Sheahan Haas Archibald

  40. knighttown says:

    JimmyV1965: Interesting that you take this perspective. I see a third line talent who can play with skill and move up and down the lineup. I think he has way more value than Maroon because of his speed. And someone other than Chia is negotiating the deal.

    Chia is an interesting fella. He was perfectly happy to accept a third round pick for Maroon, who had 14 goals and 30 pts in 57 games. Yet he turns around and gives up a third rounder for Alex Petrovic, who was healthy scratched multiple times the year we picked him up, played nine games with us and is now in the minors. I see a disconnect there.

    I don’t disagree. The challenge with acquiring this particular asset is that you simply don’t know. You could get 5th round value or you could get 1st round value.

    Kassian has 26 points and Kreider has 24. Both are 29.

    I expect that Kreider fetches significantly more at the deadline because at least the acquiring party knows what he’s getting. Kreider is Charlie Coyle. Safe, reliable, dependable. If he’s played in a similar role he should produce similar results.

    In reality, there’s a non-zero chance that Kassian has more of an impact on a good team down the stretch and in the playoffs but will teams pay the price to find out?

  41. Wilde says:

    Bakersfield Condors v. Stockton Heat; December 28th, 2019; Game Totals:

    43CF-40CA
    25FF-20FA
    2GF-2GA

    Top F: Esposito (1.06 GS)
    1 shot attempts, 2 primary shot assists, primary contribution %
    1 goal
    12CF-12CA
    1GF-0GA

    Top D: Lagesson (0.63 GS)
    5 shot attempts, 1 primary shot assists, 26.09 primary contribution %
    23CF-17CA
    1GF-1GA

  42. HugThePost says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lines at practice, as per Rishaug:

    Neal McDavid Kassian
    Nygard Draisaitl Yamamoto
    Khaira RNH Gagner
    Sheahan Haas Archibald

    Looking at the centers, think of where we would be today if we had 2 more wingers who could produce?

  43. PennersPancakes says:

    HugThePost: Looking at the centers, think of where we would be today if we had 2 more wingers who could produce?

    2 wingers who can produce 5v5 (because our PP is going to be elite regardless) and we’re cooking.

    I was hoping Nygard could have been more of a Kahun.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ethan Bear was playing like a veteran for the first quarter of the season, however, I would posit that he’s been playing very much like a rookie for the second quarter of the season.

    Along with the “slow down” of McDavid/Drai, Klef, the tending, etc., the slow down in Bear’s play has been a part of the Oilers’ “slump”.

    Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a revelation, playing top 4 minutes, on the right side, moving the puck well and a big part of the team and the future, however, “rookie mistakes” have leaked in to his game and not just here or there but consistently – nightly – multiple times per game.

    This was to be expected given the minutes he’s been playing, top 4 minutes plus PK along with the league now having tape on him.

    At the same time, lets cools our jets on 8 years X $4M. If we can get him on paper for term under $3M, go for it.

    $3M x 5 is basically the Ryan Ellis contract. Bear has less pedigree and less offense than Ellis, so something just south of that number would be fantastic.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lagesson is paired with Larsson.

  46. godot10 says:

    Ryan: Honest question, what does Kassian get you at the deadline?

    The Oilers should trade Kassian and Manning for Galchenyuk and DeSmith, and do it now rather than later.

  47. ArmchairGM says:

    v4ance: When I first proposed an 8 year extension for Bear in October, I stated that we should try for the “Josi” contract and get him for around $3.25 AAV ($26 mil over 8 years).At that price point, he would be a slightly overpaid bottom pair defenceman but if he maintains as a top 4D, you’re laughing all the way to the bank.If he becomes a top pair D, you’re playing with house money and can apply those “saved” cap dollars (assuming a 1st pair D should be getting $6 mil++)to improve the roster in another area.

    The entire core of the “extend Bear now for 8 years” is you’re gambling that you’ve identified a Top 4 D before the player has gotten enough contract leverage.Use that leverage to sign him to a cap friendly deal.$4 million is not cap friendly.At least not until the cap rises to $100 million.

    Josi’s 2nd contract was a 7-year deal at 6.22% of the cap, roughly $5.2M AAV in 2020-21 dollars. Not a comp for Bear at all.

  48. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I would be very, very reluctant to trade Jones.A year ago at this time he was our best dman prospect not named Bouchard and he was ahead of Bear. I think I would rather trade Larsson than Jones.I kinda feel like an idiot saying it because Larsson is here and playing well, but he will be gone in 18 months.

    PS. Bear needs to sit and he needs to sit on a regular basis. This league is murder on rookie NHL dmen. They need a break once in awhile.

    Benning will be back next week, that shouldn’t be a problem.

  49. godot10 says:

    razor:
    What if we traded an unsigned Nurse for Saad?

    The Oilers would catch Detroit in the standings by the end of February.

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    knighttown: Like it or not, he’s tarnished with the McDavid brush.Not dissimilar to Patrick Maroon or even Ty Rattie.

    He was an overpaid 4th liner last year and now he’s a first liner?GMs are pretty reluctant to get fleeced so I think many will shop in a different aisle.

    fwiw; I think he’s a 3rd line talent with a nice dose of grit so a 2/3 is probably value.

    Maroon scored 13 points in 17 games after being traded at the deadline to NJD and away from McDavid. Teams will give up a little more for a player that’s hot – they aren’t concerned with medium or long-term viability because he’s just a rental to them. I would think he could return a 2nd, or maybe a 3rd + B prospect.

  51. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lines at practice, as per Rishaug:

    Neal McDavid Kassian
    Nygard Draisaitl Yamamoto
    Khaira RNH Gagner
    Sheahan Haas Archibald

    Thanks.

    This will be interesting to see.

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: my Oilers and Browns

    Look on the bright side: you could’ve been a Detroit fan.

  53. texmex says:

    godot10: The Oilers would catch Detroit in the standings by the end of February.

    LAFRENIERE BABY!!!!!!

  54. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM: $3M x 5 is basically the Ryan Ellis contract. Bear has less pedigree and less offense than Ellis, so something just south of that number would be fantastic.

    Is that pro-rated based on cap growth?

  55. godot10 says:

    I wonder if Kris Russell had Chicago on his no trade list.

    Russell and Manning/Gagner plus a prospect Chicago likes (not Bouchard or Broberg or Samourukov) for Saad would make a lot of sense for both teams.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    razor:
    What if we traded an unsigned Nurse for Saad?

    Depends: are they including Dach and Boqvist too?

  57. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Speculation on trading Larrson this year without a game ready top 4 RD coming back is cray cray.

    Trades for D have to be coming from the Left side.
    There is potential next year to trade from the Right side, but at the moment the right side is a box of chocolates.

  58. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lines at practice, as per Rishaug:

    Neal McDavid Kassian
    Nygard Draisaitl Yamamoto
    Khaira RNH Gagner
    Sheahan Haas Archibald

    Like the tenured coaches before him, Tip starts to spin the roulette wheel….

  59. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lines at practice, as per Rishaug:

    Neal McDavid Kassian
    Nygard Draisaitl Yamamoto
    Khaira RNH Gagner
    Sheahan Haas Archibald

    I like this. Here is my reasoning.

    For 2.5 years and 3 coaches, Edm has ran the big line and not had success because there is NO depth.

    I think Tippett recognizes if he just keeps doning the same thing, he’s going to get the same results (No Playoffs) …

    At least he is attempting to cobble together a roster that doesn’t leak GF% when McDavid is OFF

  60. McSorley33 says:

    godot10:
    I wonder if Kris Russell had Chicago on his no trade list.

    Russell and Manning/Gagner plus a prospect Chicago likes (not Bouchard or Broberg or Samourukov) for Saad would make a lot of sense for both teams.

    Why would Chicago want Manning back?

    Why would – any -team want – Brandon Manning?

    Sailed through waivers a few times…

  61. Pescador says:

    Nix:
    Just listened to the Holland interview at the WJC. Of course he has wisdom and experience up the wazoo and this is gonna sound disrespectful as hell but the man cant even form a sentence and sounds like hes having a stroke. Took five minutes to ‘errrr, ahhhh, ummm’ his way into saying ‘yeah thats sports for ya’. Its disturbing.

    Jetlag is a killer

  62. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM: Look on the bright side: you could’ve been a Detroit fan.

    Lions or Red wings?

  63. godot10 says:

    Kassian and Manning for Galchenyuk and DeSmith
    Russell and Jones and Gagner for Saad.

    Nets a backup goaltender signed for cheap for two more years and two wingers, one on an expiring contract and one with one more year.

    Nurse Bear
    Klefbom Benning
    Lagesson, Larsson
    Persson

    Galchenyuk McDavid Draisaitl
    Saad, Nugent-Hopkins, Neil
    Nygard, Sheehan Archibald
    Khaira Haas Chiasson

    Koskinen, DeSmith

    If it is Yamamoto or Benson instead of Jones, then one would have Jones for the D also.

  64. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Cental
    STL18
    COL11
    DAL8

    Pacific
    VAN6
    VGP6
    ARI5

    Wildcard
    WPG6
    NSH4

    Out of playoffs
    CGY4
    MIN3
    EDM3
    CHI0
    ANA-2
    SJS-3
    LAK-5

    VAN beats CGY and takes the division lead.DSF could hang a wet towel on his excitement.

    Rittch got pulled after 3 goals on 7 shots.

    ARI blew a 2-0 3rd period lead to DAL last night.Taylor Hall is a problem everywhere he goes AMIRGIHT?

    WPG slides down into the wildcard race, I expect them to stay in that spot or go out of the playoffs.

    Relevant games tonight: None

    The turtle derby helps EDM.They’re not out of this by a long shot.

    Wait…what?

    Someone told me just a few days ago that VCR was not among the group vying for a Pacific Division playoff spot.

    Dom at the Athletic has them at 74% to make the playoffs.

    In a schedule quirk, the Oilers play twice before the Canucks next game on Thursday against the Hawks.

    Should be interesting.

  65. godot10 says:

    McSorley33: Why would Chicago want Manning back?

    Why would – any -team want– Brandon Manning?

    Sailed through waivers a few times…

    Manning is just to balance the cap hit for the Oilers. Chicago is a rich team with oodles of cap space with Seabrook and DeHaan on LTIR for the rest of the year.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Gregor:

    D pairs look like:

    Klefbom-Bear
    Nurse-Russell
    Lagesson-Larsson

    I’m all for Lagesson/Larsson but HATE Nurse/Russell – Russel in the top 4 on the right side is a FAILED EXPERIMENT – and Nurse/Russell have not been great in the past.

    I can’t say Jones would be better in that spot (Russell is good on the PK) but it hasn’t been tried and failed.

  67. Pescador says:

    razor:
    What if we traded an unsigned Nurse for Saad?

    Might as well cut off our own hand with a…….

  68. Pescador says:

    dustrock:
    Thought Lavoie played well for Canada today. No real mistakes, good along the boards, made a couple of nice defensive plays.

    Thought he might have tipped Addison’s shot but I guess not.

    He was getting like sub-4th line minutes but got more time today.

    He reminded me of young Curtis Hamilton

  69. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    If most D can continue to develop roughly on course there are several options for trading…

    LD
    Klef
    Nurse
    Russell
    Jones
    Lagesson
    Samorukov
    Broberg

    The best moves for trades at the moment are Russell and one of Jones/Lagesson. I think Jones has highest trade value of the 3. Russell could be a possibility at the trade deadline or over the summer. If Nurse is going to only agree to 6.5+ that is sign and trade material. Otherwise Klef is the high end D trade material. If Nurse is signed at 6.5+ I cannot see both on this team next year for more than a few months as that would be too much $ tied up in LD.

    RD
    Larsson
    Bear
    Benning
    Persson
    Berglund
    Bouchard
    Day

    Benning mixes in well for 3RD at a slight overpay this year. Trading him now is unlikely with the spate of recent head injuries. He could be nice to have re-signed at a slightly lower rate next year to start the year at least. Then see what happens with Persson, Berglund and Bouchard next fall (contingent on signing the Swedes)…and trade from RD next year.

    There is depth here and room for some trades to balance the roster in the F and G departments.

    Is there anything the Oilers could do to pry Konovalov out of his KHL contract to come to NA next year? Buy-outs? Bribes?

  70. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As per Gregor:

    D pairs look like:

    Klefbom-Bear
    Nurse-Russell
    Lagesson-Larsson

    I’m all for Lagesson/Larsson but HATE Nurse/Russell – Russel in the top 4 on the right side is a FAILED EXPERIMENT – and Nurse/Russell have not been great in the past.

    I can’t say Jones would be better in that spot (Russell is good on the PK) but it hasn’t been tried and failed.

    And besides everyone knows that Klefbom – Russell is where the real magic is

  71. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    godot10:
    I wonder if Kris Russell had Chicago on his no trade list.

    Russell and Manning/Gagner plus a prospect Chicago likes (not Bouchard or Broberg or Samourukov) for Saad would make a lot of sense for both teams.

    Good point. It is a 10 team list. Would he list teams he would play for in Northwestern NA or would he list teams he thinks he has no chance in hell of being traded to? If the former, one would have to think Chicago would be on the list…

  72. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lagesson is paired with Larsson.

    That should be good shutdown pairing. What are the others? Klefbom-Bear / Nurse-Jones?

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Is that pro-rated based on cap growth?

    Yes. Ellis signed for $2.5M x 5 at the time, which was 3.62% of cap. Based on an $83M cap that’s $3,004,600 in 2020-21 dollars. It’d be nice to see Bear come in around $2.8M x 5 if his play doesn’t tail off badly.

  74. Ben says:

    Nurse-Russell sounds like a bit of a tire fire. Neither guy can pass the puck up the ice.

    Persson doesn’t seem like the answer, but I have to vote for the lineup that gets Russell back to his natural side, he’s far better there.

  75. texmex says:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/even-oilers-wanted-saad-make-work/

    Oilers want to improve their lineup but do not want to trade draft picks or prospects and have no cap space.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I recommend listening to Tippett’s post practice avail yesterday. Here’s a link: https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/raw–tippett-122819/t-277437406/c-4918351

    Spec tries to get Tippett to throw McDavid and Drai under the bus, but Tippett wouldn’t give it to him.

    A really good part, and why I’m posting about this is Tippett’s response to their tendency to have Fancy Play Syndrome (FPS) in the ozone.

    He was asked about all the drop passes, I turned it into FPS. Its an old poker term that you use when you turn a winning hand into a losing hand on later streets because of your fancy play to try to extract more $$$ than you should have.

    Anyhow, here’s a transcript of the good part (starts around 3:00):

    “…its less about the drop passes…we’re not getting enough attempts to do it. For me its defending well in our own zone, making good plays out of our own zone, making good plays in the neutral zone to get to the offensive zone.

    Now getting there I think would…part of the problem is that we got there and we haven’t got there enough so we think we have to do something really special when we get there and the really special turns into…sometimes disasters.

    The more times you can get there the more times you can simplify it and get it to the net the more gratified you are. If you’re not there very often you feel like you have to do something really special when you get there and that’s when you run into problems.”

    Love that.

    Tippett is all about getting to the ozone with possession and everything he teaches his players to do is about getting to the ozone with possession.

    Great stuff.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: If Nurse is signed at 6.5+ I cannot see both on this team next year for more than a few months as that would be too much $ tied up in LD.

    Not at all. Most teams have more than $10M budgeted for their top 2 defensemen.

  78. Ben says:

    ArmchairGM: Not at all. Most teams have more than $10M budgeted for their top 2 defensemen.

    If Nurse at $6.5 and someone else at $3.5 are your “top 2 defensemen” you are not a good team.

  79. v4ance says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Good point. It is a 10 team list. Would he list teams he would play for in Northwestern NA or would he list teams he thinks he has no chance in hell of being traded to? If the former, one would have to think Chicago would be on the list…

    10 team trade list assuming priority is for proximity to Western Canada and ease of air travel:
    VAN
    CAL
    WIN
    Vegerville
    CHI
    MIN
    STL
    TOR
    COL
    DAL

    If he wants to choose contenders, but still be close to Western Canada, I think the only substitution would be CHI.

  80. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM: Not at all. Most teams have more than $10M budgeted for their top 2 defensemen.

    So how then do they get 2 legit top 6 wingers?

    EDIT: The premise being the LD position is currently the greatest position of depth and tradeable assets.

  81. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    JimmyV1965: There’s no way the Hawks take Neal. I hope I’m so very wrong, but just don’t see it happening.

    The only way I see them taking Neal is if they’re 100% comfortable with a buyout of 1.8mil for 6 years and they’re getting pretty substantial value in prospects. The Jones and Yamamoto package represents the degree of value I could imagine them needing to make such a deal. I have a hard time imagining them being okay with the buyout, though. Gagner and an asset or two for Saad w/ 1mil retained seems a more likely path if I were to guess.

  82. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Serious question: is Saad going to help the Oilers more than Sam Gagner?

    P/60, 2019-20:
    Saad: 1.97
    Gagner: 1.72

    P/60, 2018-19:
    Saad: 1.75
    Gagner: 1.74 (Oilers portion)

    CF% (CF/60 – CA-60), 2019-20:
    Saad: 52.07% (64.38 – 59.27)
    Gagner: 54.23 (61.58 – 51.97)

    SF% (SF/60 – SA-60), 2019-20:
    Saad: 50.18% (35.93 – 35.67)
    Gagner: 57.03% (35.96 – 27.10)

    GF% (GF/60 – GA-60), 2019-20:
    Saad: 45.24% (2.49 – 3.02)
    Gagner: 39.13% (2.22 – 3.45)

    xGF% (xGF/60 – xGA-60), 2019-20:
    Saad: 52.28% (2.86 – 2.61)
    Gagner: 59.88% (2.85 – 1.91)

    HDCF% (HDCF/60 – HDCA/60), 2019-20
    Saad: 52.50% (13.77 – 12.46)
    Gagner: 58.62% (12.56 – 8.87)

    PDO (Sh% – Sv%)
    Saad: 0.985 (6.93 – 91.54)
    Gagner: 0.934 (6.16 – 87.27)

    Both are a bit unlucky, but Gagner is suffering from poor goaltending to a much higher degree. And for a guy supposedly good defensively, Saad’s CA, SA and HDCA numbers are TERRIBLE. And they’ve been bad for 3 seasons now.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8476438

    Well if you trade Gagner+ for Saad,
    Then yes, Saad will help the Oilers more than Gagner

  83. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Ben: If Nurse at $6.5 and someone else at $3.5 are your “top 2 defensemen” you are not a good team.

    Nurse > Klefbom

    And they should keep both.

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Is there anything the Oilers could do to pry Konovalov out of his KHL contract to come to NA next year? Buy-outs? Bribes?

    I don’t see any reason to. They’ll likely want to have him in the AHL for the year anyhow, judging by other clubs treatment of their young Russian goalies.

    There will be NHL-caliber goalies available next summer who will be capable of 40+ starts.

  85. Ben says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Nurse > Klefbom

    Like, “Nurse is larger than Klefbom”? I can agree with that much, and little else.

    I’m not sure if modern d-men have any more important jobs than reading plays and distributing pucks. Nurse is worse at both of these things than Klefbom.

    They’re both fine NHL D-men. Klefbom is better. Not sure either is worth $6.5M, though Klef would be close.

  86. Harpers Hair says:

    v4ance: 10 team trade list assuming priority is for proximity to Western Canada and ease of air travel:
    VAN
    CAL
    WIN
    Vegerville
    CHI
    MIN
    STL
    TOR
    COL
    DAL

    If he wants to choose contenders, but still be close to Western Canada, I think the only substitution would be CHI.

    If that is accurate you need to examine which of those teams might need or want Russell.

    I would wager VCR, CGY, VGK, MIN, STL, COL, DAL would have zero interest while TOR doesn’t have the cap space.

    Not much left.

  87. HugThePost says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I recommend listening to Tippett’s post practice avail yesterday.Here’s a link: https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/raw–tippett-122819/t-277437406/c-4918351

    Spec tries to get Tippett to throw McDavid and Drai under the bus, but Tippett wouldn’t give it to him.

    A really good part, and why I’m posting about this is Tippett’s response to their tendency to have Fancy Play Syndrome (FPS) in the ozone.

    He was asked about all the drop passes, I turned it into FPS.Its an old poker term that you use when you turn a winning hand into a losing hand on later streets because of your fancy play to try to extract more $$$ than you should have.

    Anyhow, here’s a transcript of the good part (starts around 3:00):

    “…its less about the drop passes…we’re not getting enough attempts to do it.For me its defending well in our own zone, making good plays out of our own zone, making good plays in the neutral zone to get to the offensive zone.


    Now getting there I think would…part of the problem is that we got there and we haven’t got there enough so we think we have to do something really special when we get there and the really special turns into…sometimes disasters.

    The more times you can get there the more times you can simplify it and get it to the net the more gratified you are.If you’re not there very often you feel like you have to do something really special when you get there and that’s when you run into problems.”

    Love that.

    Tippett is all about getting to the ozone with possession and everything he teaches his players to do is about getting to the ozone with possession.

    Great stuff.

    I like how Tippet refuses to take a public run at 97 and 29; the sign of a controlled, experienced coach.

    When did Spec become such a tabloid artist?

  88. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t see any reason to. They’ll likely want to have him in the AHL for the year anyhow, judging by other clubs treatment of their young Russian goalies.

    There will be NHL-caliber goalies available next summer who will be capable of 40+ starts.

    Agreed he would probably play a year in AHL at least. I am just thinking of how to fast track this so he is not a “potential back-up option” Fall 2022, but Fall 2021 and the team gets to control his play sooner than after the KHL contract.

  89. Woogie63 says:

    Oiler will make the play-offs this year.

    AND

    Showing they can play a regular role on the NHL will be;

    Yamamoto
    Benson
    Haas
    Nygard
    Russell
    Bear
    Jones
    Lagesson
    Starrett

    An so it will begin

  90. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    THX FOR SHARING!

  91. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Ben,

    Like Nurse gets consistently better results than Klefbom, is younger, is a better even strength producer, enhances “McDavid On” results more than Klefbom does and is reliably going to play more games per year.

    Is he ideal at 6.5 x 8 currently? No. Is he worth 6.5 in years 3 and beyond of the 8 year deal once the TV deal and expansion drives the cap up? Almost certainly.

  92. Ben says:

    Scheisse:

    @ReidWilkins
    ·
    2m
    Draisaitl: “Obviously I’ve been pretty sh*t lately.”

  93. Sierra says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for sharing.

    Since the Vegas game the team’s defensive coverage has not been good and the breakout has been terrible.

    So Tipp recognizes this, which I would expect from an experienced head coach, what is he doing about it and why aren’t we seeing improvements?

  94. v4ance says:

    HugThePost: I like how Tippet refuses to take a public run at 97 and 29; the sign of a controlled, experienced coach.

    When did Spec become such a tabloid artist?

    When HASN’T he been a tabloid artist? There’s a picture of him beside “muckracker” in the dictionary

  95. ArmchairGM says:

    Ben: If Nurse at $6.5 and someone else at $3.5 are your “top 2 defensemen” you are not a good team.

    Nurse and Klefbom are our top-2 defenseman. You don’t have to like it, but that’s the way it is.

  96. ArmchairGM says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: So how then do they get 2 legit top 6 wingers?

    EDIT: The premise being the LD position is currently the greatest position of depth and tradeable assets.

    Get rid of dead cap and spend it wisely in the summer.

  97. Ben says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Ben,

    Like Nurse gets consistently better results than Klefbom, is younger, is a better even strength producer, enhances “McDavid On” results more than Klefbom does and is reliably going to play more games per year.

    Is he ideal at 6.5 x 8 currently? No. Is he worth 6.5 in years 3 and beyond of the 8 year deal once the TV deal and expansion drives the cap up? Almost certainly.

    Klef’s CF is a little off this year, but career-wise is superior to Nurse’s. Over 50% through a bunch of *incredibly* lean years. And do you truly think McDavid On is a more important metric for this team than off in assessing Dmen?

    I like Nurse fine. But he can’t pass the puck. Maybe he doesn’t have to if he’s on with McDavid who can control zone entry himself. But it’s a huge problem if you’re going to have him on the ice for 22 mintues a game. (Klef consistently plays 3 minutes more than him per game, btw. Why do you think that is?)

    I don’t even think Klef is *that* great with the puck, but passing is such a criticial skill deficit in the d-corps (none of Russell, Larsson, Nurse can execute a consistent headman pass) that he stands out.

    Again—Nurse is fine. But the numbers being discussed ($6.5M is the 18th richest D contract in the whole league) slot him waaaaayyy too high in the lineup.

  98. Ben says:

    ArmchairGM: Nurse and Klefbom are our top-2 defenseman. You don’t have to like it, but that’s the way it is.

    You’re confusing “best two defensemen on the Oilers” with “worthy of a top-20 contract in the NHL”.

  99. PennersPancakes says:

    Ben: Again—Nurse is fine. But the numbers being discussed ($6.5M is the 18th richest D contract in the whole league) slot him waaaaayyy too high in the lineup.

    What does it look like when you use cap hit % instead of absolute dollars? This argument is saying Nurse shouldnt get 6.5M because theres lots of players better than him who get less, but is that fair if say theyre in year 5 of an 8 year contract that was signed when the cap was ~15 million less?

    There is also a big gap in terms of value by how long the contracts are which isnt being addressed. I think a lot of the suggestions/comments about 6.5 also carry a 7/8 year term (where you wont have to give a raise bridge style) and will be full value the entire contract.

  100. Ben says:

    PennersPancakes: What does it look like when you use cap hit % instead of absolute dollars? This argument is saying Nurse shouldnt get 6.5M because theres lots of players better than him who get less, but is that fair if say theyre in year 5 of an 8 year contract that was signed when the cap was ~15 million less?

    There is also a big gap in terms of value by how long the contracts are which isnt being addressed. I think a lot of the suggestions/comments about 6.5 also carry a 7/8 year term (where you wont have to give a raise bridge style) and will be full value the entire contract.

    Well, a couple of very recent comps:

    Ryan Ellis, who I think is a more valuable player (plays more, shoots R, scores more, better results), just signed max term at $6.25 coming off of a bridge.

    Josh Morrissey is another comp who I think most would agree is superior to Nurse in most key facets just signed that exact same deal.

    I think Tyler Myers is a pretty fair comp for Nurse, though Nurse should perhaps bring a little more offense. Most around here agreed $6Mx8 was extremely poor value for that player.

    I’m not here to shit on anyone. I really like Nurse. But his agent has clearly succeeded in publicly anchoring a VERY high number for his client that is unsupported by rational comparables. Hope Holland sees past it.

  101. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ben: Like, “Nurse is larger than Klefbom”? I can agree with that much, and little else.

    I’m not sure if modern d-men have any more important jobs than reading plays and distributing pucks. Nurse is worse at both of these things than Klefbom.

    They’re both fine NHL D-men. Klefbom is better. Not sure either is worth $6.5M, though Klef would be close.

    They are both very good dmen playing on shitty teams. It makes a difference. Right now it appears Pionk is a better dman than Trouba. Is this truly the case though.

  102. JimmyV1965 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Ben,

    Like Nurse gets consistently better results than Klefbom, is younger, is a better even strength producer, enhances “McDavid On” results more than Klefbom does and is reliably going to play more games per year.

    Is he ideal at 6.5 x 8 currently? No. Is he worth 6.5 in years 3 and beyond of the 8 year deal once the TV deal and expansion drives the cap up? Almost certainly.

    Amen

  103. PennersPancakes says:

    This years cap hit is 81.5 million a 2 mill increase from 2018-2019, to keep things simple lets project next year to 83.5.

    Nurse signing a contract in the summer for 6.5M AAV would then be 7.78% which for defensemen would put Nurse at 32nd highest. Barring any higher signings next year (Pietrangelo, Barrie, Krug)

    Interesting recent signings:
    – Trouba 9.8% – 7 year contract
    – Provorov 8.3% – 6 year contract
    – Morrissey 7.67% – 8 year contract
    – Parayko 7.3% – 5 year contract
    – Skjei 6.60% – 6 year contract
    – Matheson 6.5% – 8 year contract
    – Theodore 6.54% – 7 year contract
    – Werenski 6.14% – 3 year contract
    – McAvoy 6.01% – 3 year contract

    This puts his closest contract comparable to Morissey. Not awful, obviously as fans it would be nice to get a lower cap hit but this doesnt seem out of the park. Higher percent to lock in the extra couple years is a fair trade off.

  104. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Ben: Klef’s CF is a little off this year, but career-wise is superior to Nurse’s. Over 50% through a bunch of *incredibly* lean years. And do you truly think McDavid On is a more important metric for this team than off in assessing Dmen?

    If you’re going to use CF as your evaluative metric, you’d be neglecting context to not point out that much of Nurse’s time over the past 3 years has been spent alongside noted Corsi blackhole, Kris Russell. I’m not fond of the possession method of evaluation alone, though.

    No, I don’t think “McDavid On” the more important metric by which to assess Dmen, but at what point did I suggest that? Attempting to straw man doesn’t enhance your argument. When one Dman dramatically improves the on-ice results of our best player when compared to another, I take note of it. When I did the comparison back in early December, the numbers over the past 3 years were as follows:

    Player: GF/60 / GA/60 / total /60) / GF% w/o McDavid
    Klefbom: 3.2 / 3.25 / -0.05 G/60 / 34.8%
    Nurse: 3.8 / 2.71 / +1.09 G/60 / 43.5%

    Note the final column for your “more important evaluative measure”. Now, to be completely fair in my assessment, this includes a patch last year where Klefbom played alongside a seriously struggling Larsson so it’s sampling a pretty rough part of his career. However, given his goal-share results haven’t improved this year, I’m seeing a trend.

    Say what you will about assessing Dmen with goal shares/rates- I know many take issue with it due to disputes of how much impact Dmen have over goals for/against- but I see concerning numbers with Klef.

    Ben:I like Nurse fine. But he can’t pass the puck. Maybe he doesn’t have to if he’s on with McDavid who can control zone entry himself. But it’s a huge problem if you’re going to have him on the ice for 22 mintues a game. (Klef consistently plays 3 minutes more than him per game, btw. Why do you think that is?)

    Sure, he can’t pass brilliantly but he’s at worst just below average in that regard. I’d even place him right in the average camp. What puck-moving maneuver does he do better than average? Carry the puck and gain the zone. Sure, that may not be necessary with McDavid on the ice, but that’s a valuable skill when he’s not (perhaps part of why his McDavid Off results are so much better than Klef). I have yet to do an analysis of whether his puck carrying ability actually parlays into more controlled zone entries so I won’t assert this point too strongly, but Dmen have different strengths.

    If passing is the “name of the game” in the modern NHL, why isn’t Klefbom contributing more to winning games despite comparable deployment?

    As for the minutes played, I’d posit that’s mostly made up by the difference in PP time.

    Ben:I don’t even think Klef is *that* great with the puck, but passing is such a criticial skill deficit in the d-corps (none of Russell, Larsson, Nurse can execute a consistent headman pass) that he stands out.

    Again—Nurse is fine. But the numbers being discussed ($6.5M is the 18th richest D contract in the whole league) slot him waaaaayyy too high in the lineup.

    I don’t disagree that the 6.5mil number is perhaps a bit high currently, but I’m confident it wouldn’t be for long. You seem insistent on stating that it would be the 18th richest D contract in the league, but I’d posit a.) that won’t be the case for long as many young Dmen will be getting their new deals, b.) guys like Pietrangelo will be getting their pay days shortly and c.) the cap will increase substantially in the coming years. This will likely set the bar for #3 Dmen around there anyway (Petry and Sekera at 5.5 are comparables under the cap structure of 2015). Speaking of Petry and Sekera, both of them- along with MANY other Dmen- improved substantially after the age of 25; why are we convinced Nurse won’t do the same?

    Yes, we’re taking a bit of a risk but at absolute worst we’re looking at a #3 Dman on a 6.5mil cap hit in a cap environment likely exceeding 90mil. In the case where we declines substantially at age 26 or 27, we MAYBE retain 1mil and get him down to 5.5mil (6.1% of 90mil) and we’re free from that unlikely burden.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    Ben: You’re confusing “best two defensemen on the Oilers” with “worthy of a top-20 contract in the NHL”.

    I wasn’t defending the contract. I was disputing the idea that the Oilers couldn’t afford to spend ~$10M on their top 2 guys. Nuance, it’s a thing.

  106. Ben says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    See my last about the Ellis/Morrissey/Myers contracts. There’s no need to “risk” 6.5M on this player when better players are currently signing cheaper max deals.

    Not sure what an ‘objectively’ fair number looks like for Nurse, but it should probably start with a 5.

  107. PennersPancakes says:

    Ben: Well, a couple of very recent comps:

    Ryan Ellis, who I think is a more valuable player (plays more, shoots R, scores more, better results), just signed max term at $6.25 coming off of a bridge.

    Josh Morrissey is another comp who I think most would agree is superior to Nurse in most key facets just signed that exact same deal.

    I think Tyler Myers is a pretty fair comp for Nurse, though Nurse should perhaps bring a little more offense. Most around here agreed $6Mx8 was extremely poor value for that player.

    I’m not here to shit on anyone. I really like Nurse. But his agent has clearly succeeded in publicly anchoring a VERY high number for his client that is unsupported by rational comparables. Hope Holland sees past it.

    Im not suggesting you are shitting on Nurse, I am just trying to think even for myself what I think a decent contract would be.

    – Ellis is about to turn 29 and will be 36 when he finishes this contract. His play will decline. Plus Nashville is magic with defense contracts /s.

    – Morissey would be a good anchor in my mind. I dont watch a lot of Jets games but would give him a slight edge over Nurse (I think). He also has a combo of NMC and NTC.

    – Tyler Myers is not a Nurse comparable. This will take Myers to 34 and his main strength is being tall. It was also only a 5 year not 8 year contract which not ideal makes it more palatable for Vancouver in this situation.

    +- 0.5 mill off Morrissey seems likely.

  108. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes: What does it look like when you use cap hit % instead of absolute dollars? This argument is saying Nurse shouldnt get 6.5M because theres lots of players better than him who get less, but is that fair if say theyre in year 5 of an 8 year contract that was signed when the cap was ~15 million less?

    There is also a big gap in terms of value by how long the contracts are which isnt being addressed. I think a lot of the suggestions/comments about 6.5 also carry a 7/8 year term (where you wont have to give a raise bridge style) and will be full value the entire contract.

    Here you go:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit-percent/all/defense&display=caphit-percent&hide=salary

    Nurse’s cap hit % would be around 7.5% (35th in the league) at $6.25M, which I think is his ceiling for an 8-year contract based on the Morrissey deal. Anything with less term should come in cheaper: i.e. a 5 year x $5.25M deal would represent about 6.6% of cap, or ~60th in the league. Seems reasonable.

  109. drglen says:

    I totally agree on the Tipp comments on neutral zone breakouts.

    Yamo probably makes more sense to begin with.

    I’d rather have Benson in the lineup than Khaira at this point. Of course, we need to see what Benson can actually do in the NHL.

    LT lots of love for Larrson on the radio, .. Id still trade in about 2 weeks if we continue to slide out of contention. I hope, Lagesson gets a look. Next 3-6 games are crucial in many careers imo.. I personally feel the old core NHL group minus drai and macd could all be moved.

    Nobody seems to be talking about Klefbom either, who is minus 26 or something.

    Why make a trade to lose in the first round of playoffs? I think, that Holland thinks this too, and is starting to realize his core NHL group is not good enough to win. I think he’s thinking longer term and looking to stack a forward prospect pool and get some pics in this draft.

    Is there a chance he calls up McLeod before Benson? maybe.

  110. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes:
    This years cap hit is 81.5 million a 2 mill increase from 2018-2019, to keep things simple lets project next year to 83.5.

    Nurse signing a contract in the summer for 6.5M AAV would then be 7.78% which for defensemen would put Nurse at 32nd highest. Barring any higher signings next year (Pietrangelo, Barrie, Krug)

    Interesting recent signings:
    – Trouba 9.8% – 7 year contract
    – Provorov 8.3% – 6 year contract
    – Morrissey 7.67% – 8 year contract
    – Parayko 7.3% – 5 year contract
    – Skjei 6.60% – 6 year contract
    – Matheson 6.5% –8 year contract
    – Theodore 6.54% – 7 year contract
    – Werenski 6.14% – 3 year contract
    – McAvoy 6.01% – 3 year contract

    This puts his closest contract comparable to Morissey. Not awful, obviously as fans it would be nice to get a lower cap hit but this doesnt seem out of the park. Higher percent to lock in the extra couple years is a fair trade off.

    Serious question: would WPG trade Morrissey for Nurse 1-for-1? Should Edmonton?

  111. Ben says:

    ArmchairGM: 5 year x $5.25M deal

    This feels right.

    (Also, Armchair, I would suggest you could be capable of sharing your prodigious insight without the snark, but go as you will.)

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    razor:
    What if we traded an unsigned Nurse for Saad?

    Then the GM should be fired………

  113. PennersPancakes says:

    ArmchairGM: Serious question: would WPG trade Morrissey for Nurse 1-for-1? Should Edmonton?

    I think the players are close enough and each team knows their own guy better so both would say no. In a vacuum Oilers would say yes though, especially if the contract gets out of hand.

    Its bordering old school hockey thinking but going into the corners against a filled out Nurse for a 7 game series would suck. For a marginal swap might as well keep the guy McDavid loves.

  114. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Ben:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    See my last about the Ellis/Morrissey/Myers contracts. There’s no need to “risk” 6.5M on this player when better players are currently signing cheaper max deals.

    Not sure what an ‘objectively’ fair number looks like for Nurse, but it should probably start with a 5.

    If you’re gonna use the Ellis contract, I can counter using the Faulk contract- or, at least his agent would. I’d take Nurse 10 out of 10 days over Faulk. Comparable contracts exist for players of both higher quality and lower quality. Sure, we’d like to use the higher quality players’ more often, but we’re not exactly an attractive place to play.

    Isn’t Tennessee one of those low income tax states, as well? I don’t recall which one’s those are.

  115. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar: Then the GM should be fired………

    Abso-fucking-lutely. At some point, we have to be the one’s to levy the inherently greater value of D into a more valuable W.

  116. godot10 says:

    Ben: You’re confusing “best two defensemen on the Oilers” with “worthy of a top-20 contract in the NHL”.

    It is barely top 20, and will be far out of the top twenty if one uses the correct measure, percentage of the cap when signed. Plus one is comparing it to contracts, some of which were signed long ago, and most which were signed prior to the McDavid/Doughty reset.

  117. godot10 says:

    Ben: Well, a couple of very recent comps:

    Ryan Ellis, who I think is a more valuable player (plays more, shoots R, scores more, better results), just signed max term at $6.25 coming off of a bridge.

    Josh Morrissey is another comp who I think most would agree is superior to Nurse in most key facets just signed that exact same deal.

    I think Tyler Myers is a pretty fair comp for Nurse, though Nurse should perhaps bring a little more offense. Most around here agreed $6Mx8 was extremely poor value for that player.

    I’m not here to shit on anyone. I really like Nurse. But his agent has clearly succeeded in publicly anchoring a VERY high number for his client that is unsupported by rational comparables. Hope Holland sees past it.

    Myers contract is for declining years. Nurse’s contract is for prime years.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley: Why would Chicago want Manning back?

    Why would – any -team want– Brandon Manning?

    Sailed through waivers a few times…

    They don’t but, if they want the prospect back for Sadd, then they could take the contract back as an expiring contract in order to consummate the deal as the Oilers can’t fit anywhere near $6M of cap on their current roster.

    The addition of Manning, likely increases the acquisition cost – the prospect plus a 4th becomes the prospect plus a 3rd, for example.

    This works MUCH better for the Oil if its Russell as oppossed to Manning as the can’t fit Sadd in next year right now (assuming a Nurse re-sign) without letting Kass go and/or buying out Neal (which is not a great result).

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    Ben:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    See my last about the Ellis/Morrissey/Myers contracts. There’s no need to “risk” 6.5M on this player when better players are currently signing cheaper max deals.

    Not sure what an ‘objectively’ fair number looks like for Nurse, but it should probably start with a 5.

    If we agree (we do) that Nurse is a #3 defenseman (I’ve seen it posited frequently on this site), then I’d suggest we are looking at a 5.3% – 6.2% deal and not for maximum term. Maximum term takes him through to 33 years old – are we sure we want to be locked in that long? Might there be some risk of decline in the last 3 years of that deal?

    So something like 5 years with an AAV in the $4.5 – 5.2M range. I don’t really see many comps for this type of contract though – Muzzin and Gardiner back in 2014 are the closest. Realistically, he’s looking at a contract like Orlov (6.8% x 6), Brodie (6.74% x 5) or Skjei (6.6% x 6).

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit-percent/all/defense&display=caphit-percent&hide=salary&p=2

  120. ArmchairGM says:

    Ben: This feels right.

    (Also, Armchair, I would suggest you could be capable of sharing your prodigious insight without the snark, but go as you will.)

    😀

    Despite the snark, I think we’re talking the same language regarding the Nurse contract.

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    knighttown: Like it or not, he’s tarnished with the McDavid brush.Not dissimilar to Patrick Maroon or even Ty Rattie.

    He was an overpaid 4th liner last year and now he’s a first liner?GMs are pretty reluctant to get fleeced so I think many will shop in a different aisle.

    fwiw; I think he’s a 3rd line talent with a nice dose of grit so a 2/3 is probably value.

    Hi KT, thanks for chiming in.

  122. OilClog says:

    Would rather see a Palmieri add then a Saad, Palmieri has much better puck skills while Saads style of play may be catching up to him. Oilers already have a Kassian, more skill and speed to open up the ice would be nice, imo don’t see a scenario where Saad would provide that.

  123. Jordan says:

    Sierra,

    The only play that I see Bowman looking at if he wants to dump the salary is if he’s trading for expiring contracts in 2020.

    If I were trying to get out of Cap Hell on the Hawks, and was willing to move Saad, I’d be looking at Gagner, Manning, Jones and a pick for Saad.

    If I’m in Holland’s shoes, I’d be offering Neal and Jones, or Russell and Chaser and Jones. I don’t want to give up the cap space that Gagner and Manning represent next year.

    If it was me, I’d be looking at a 3-way, because we want Saad, but don’t have the cap to take him on and the reason the Hawks want him gone is for cap relief.

    I’d be looking at LA, Columbus or Ottawa as an extra dance partner in there. LA’s D is pretty poor outside Doughty, C-bus needs skilled Fs and Ottawa has 23M on IR right now, so they need everything. I didn’t realize this but the Senators are actually only icing a 44M Cap hit team right now. Wow. Poor Ottawa fans.

    Here’s hoping that Kenny the Grinder can work some more magic for this team.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10:
    I wonder if Kris Russell had Chicago on his no trade list.

    Russell and Manning/Gagner plus a prospect Chicago likes (not Bouchard or Broberg or Samourukov) for Saad would make a lot of sense for both teams.

    That’s where my head is at too.

  125. OilClog says:

    There will be a line up of GM’s signing Nurse for a number that at least starts with a 6.

    25 at seasons end, 360gp barring injury, 23min a night. Point every other game, has a long list of intangibles (as zero value to some as they may be). He’s going to get paid, his prime is going to align with the Oilers core, but instead let’s trade him and farm up another prospect for the competition.

    A good team is going to sign him and pair him in a good situation, making everyone look great and competent while the Oilers try to break in 3 rookie blue and convince McDavid they’re fully capable of getting the best out of his prime lol

    At the end of next season most likely Russell and Larsson will be gone, leaving Klef and Bear if he doesn’t fall apart.

    Breaking in Bouchard, Broberg, Lagesson, Samkurov while hoping Jones has broken in and Bear holds steady.. Holy shit show. Keep Nurse.

  126. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM: I wasn’t defending the contract. I was disputing the idea that the Oilers couldn’t afford to spend ~$10M on their top 2 guys. Nuance, it’s a thing.

    I guess I don’t see Nurse as a top 2 D-man. I see him as a ~3, so the concern I have is tying up top 2 D $ (6.5+/yr) in him. I also have some concerns that cap growth is going to continue for 8 years (edit: at the rates of the past 8 years). One of these days when I am not so lazy, I am going to look at MAX CAP at a league level vs. CAP SPACE at a league level over the past 10 years to see how much the pie is shrinking (my eye ball test) and hence how much harder it will be in the future to move “over valued” contracts, generally speaking – not just a current discussion point on reasonable contract value for Mr. Nurse.

  127. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM: If we agree (we do) that Nurse is a #3 defenseman (I’ve seen it posited frequently on this site), then I’d suggest we are looking at a 5.3% – 6.2% deal and not for maximum term. Maximum term takes him through to 33 years old – are we sure we want to be locked in that long? Might there be some risk of decline in the last 3 years of that deal?

    So something like 5 years with an AAV in the $4.5 – 5.2M range. I don’t really see many comps for this type of contract though – Muzzin and Gardiner back in 2014 are the closest. Realistically, he’s looking at a contract like Orlov (6.8% x 6), Brodie (6.74% x 5) or Skjei (6.6% x 6).

    https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit-percent/all/defense&display=caphit-percent&hide=salary&p=2

    OK. I see we may not be far apart then in thinking where Nurse slots on a good team and reasonable value for his contract. I had posted this a week ago…
    “Nurse: prefer 6 years @ $33M (~$5.5M AAV) but if that isn’t going to work, shorter term with a bit more, e.g., 4 years @ $24M (~$6M AAV).” which seems in the ball park of your estimations as well…

  128. Jordan says:

    Was just looking around on PuckIQ on how Oilers forwards are performing, and some interesting items presented themselves:
    1 – James Neal is very close to 50% Chances and DFF, but is in a giant PDO hole – bad puck luck 5v5
    2 – Jujar is having a bad year unless he’s playing 4th liners, but his PDO is much worse than his CF or DFF – Bad puck luck
    3 – Chiasson’s CF and DFF are positive except when played against elites. His PDO is positive – better luck than expected
    4 – Nuge’s DFF against elites is AWFUL – 34%. Riding the PDO pony hard to be near 50% GF overall.
    5 – Nygard and Haas’s numbers generate an error. Weird.

    Polling the Audience

    If Bowman wants Larsson back for Saad, and will eat salary to even out the money, would you trade them one for one?

  129. Dicky94 says:

    Jordan,

    I would make this trade only if Sami Vatanen was coming over from Jersey first.

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    OilClog: Keep Nurse.

    Absolutely, I think most here agree. But with a caveat: not at any price.

  131. ArmchairGM says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: I guess I don’t see Nurse as a top 2 D-man. I see him as a ~3, so the concern I have is tying up top 2 D $ (6.5+/yr) in him. I also have some concerns that cap growth is going to continue for 8 years (edit: at the rates of the past 8 years). One of these days when I am not so lazy, I am going to look at MAX CAP at a league level vs. CAP SPACE at a league level over the past 10 years to see how much the pie is shrinking (my eye ball test) and hence how much harder it will be in the future to move “over valued” contracts, generally speaking – not just a current discussion point on reasonable contract value for Mr. Nurse.

    Much of the cap issues created by a ~$6.5M Nurse deal are directly related to paying a #5/6 defenseman $4M per year (Russell) and our #7/8 $2.25M (Manning). If our 5/6/7 came at a reasonable rate (say $4M combined) we wouldn’t have near as much angst about Nurse’s next deal.

  132. Alpine says:

    Chiasson + Gagner might be more enticing to CHI than Russell. In that Gagner expires soon, so they’d have more room next year with just Chiasson rather than taking on Russell for next year.

    Don’t know if we need to keep discussing this Saad move since Friedman seems to be saying it’s not happening but maybe him bringing it up again means they’re still figuring out how to make the dollars work. Doesn’t look good. Toffoli seems to be the other option.

    What about Kassian instead of Chiasson and CHI flips him at the deadline? I don’t know if we move for a top six F and trade Kass at the same time since teams don’t move rentals when they’re also buyers.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: I wasn’t defending the contract. I was disputing the idea that the Oilers couldn’t afford to spend ~$10M on their top 2 guys. Nuance, it’s a thing.

    The fact that one Dman is paid under market is not a good reason to over pay another Dmen.

  134. Jethro Tull says:

    Writing’s on the wall for Benson. Perfect opportunity to bring him up was when Kass and Nuge were injured. Now he’s passed for Yamamoto, who has inferior numbers at the AHL level.

    This was done by a GM lauded for his willingness to leave players in the smalls until he deemed them ready. So take from that what you will.

    So we’re trying to compelt Bowman to gives us Saad for our dross? Usual day at the office here, then.

    Nurse needs signing or trading – the maturation of the good D prospects, which is a strange problem for the Oilers to have, drives this. I firmly believe some of those prospects may turn out to be better players than Nurse.

    Log jam in the D prospects means for once we actually may be able to deal for need from strength.

  135. Pechetr says:

    A lot of talk the last few days about moving Kassian on. Can someone please explain to me who keeps opponents honest against McDavid if this happens? The refs? Did we not see what happened to Calgary last year in the playoffs once the physicality ramps up? Did we all not envy the St Louis team that plays fast, skilled and heavy? Let’s trade one of our best skaters that happens to have good hands and a nasty side shall we? You think the cheap shots on McDavid will be better or worse after Kassian is gone? Just some “intangibles” to ponder.

  136. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The fact that one Dman is paid under market is not a good reason to over pay another Dmen.

    Again, I wasn’t defending paying Nurse $6.5M. Why is this so hard?

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    Don’t look now (ok, go ahead and look), but Marco Rossi is now tied with Kaliyev in the OHL points race, with 7 (!) games in hand. He’s 5 points ahead of Byfield with 4 games in hand… his ~63 NHLe is within spitting distance of where McDavid’s was in his draft year.

    Wow. And this guy could well be available when the Oilers pick.

  138. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Caught a bit of Oilers vs Pens ‘86.

    Nurse reminds me of Steve Smith. A lot.

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Don’t look now (ok, go ahead and look), but Marco Rossi is now tied with Kaliyev in the OHL points race, with 7 (!) games in hand. He’s 5 points ahead of Byfield with 4 games in hand… his ~63 NHLe is within spitting distance of where McDavid’s was in his draft year.

    Wow. And this guy could well be available when the Oilers pick.

    If he’s up can’t make another DeBrincat.

  140. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: OK. I see we may not be far apart then in thinking where Nurse slots on a good team and reasonable value for his contract. I had posted this a week ago…
    “Nurse: prefer 6 years @ $33M (~$5.5M AAV) but if that isn’t going to work, shorter term with a bit more, e.g., 4 years @ $24M (~$6M AAV).” which seems in the ball park of your estimations as well…

    Nurse on term under 6 is perfect especially if there remains ability to trade him in a few years.

    To me good players without excessive trade restrictions shouldn’t be hard to move if necessary, which is key. Only special players should get that, but it is a player’s league ATM.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben: Klef’s CF is a little off this year, but career-wise is superior to Nurse’s. Over 50% through a bunch of *incredibly* lean years. And do you truly think McDavid On is a more important metric for this team than off in assessing Dmen?

    I like Nurse fine. But he can’t pass the puck. Maybe he doesn’t have to if he’s on with McDavid who can control zone entry himself. But it’s a huge problem if you’re going to have him on the ice for 22 mintues a game. (Klef consistently plays 3 minutes more than him per game, btw. Why do you think that is?)

    I don’t even think Klef is *that* great with the puck, but passing is such a criticial skill deficit in the d-corps (none of Russell, Larsson, Nurse can execute a consistent headman pass) that he stands out.

    Again—Nurse is fine. But the numbers being discussed ($6.5M is the 18th richest D contract in the whole league) slot him waaaaayyy too high in the lineup.

    I’m not really here to join the conversation (although I do agree that Klefbom is the more important d-man to this team) but I did want to answer the question re: 3 min TOI difference which, I believe, is mostly PP TOI.

  142. BONE207 says:

    WG: DSF could hang a wet towel on his excitement.

    His excitement would have both of his hands around it if the canucks get to the playoffs. The only time he would let go is if there are cheezies in the room.

  143. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’ve been concerned about Nuge this season. Not looking very effective. He’s hurting we think.

    His PPG is under career norms, but similar to his other lower scoring seasons. His SH% is also down as in other lower seasons.

    Less concerned now. I wonder if a healthy C might not be better ATM. Get Nuge healed up.

    It’s a hard decision but would the results be worse using healthier and more fresh players for a bit if things aren’t working now?

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen:

    Is therea chance he calls up McLeod before Benson? maybe.

    There is about a 0.0000001% chance of McLeod seeing the NHL this season, in my opinion.

  145. Harpers Hair says:

    BONE207:
    WG: DSF could hang a wet towel on his excitement.

    His excitement would have both of his hands around it if the canucks get to the playoffs. The only time he would let go is if there are cheezies in the room.

    I hate Cheezies…always have.

    But I would let go for a tumbler of Shelter Point.

  146. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Draft picks are important, but given the known established rates of having any NHL success, let alone a high end career, I only value first round picks as gold.

    If things can be improved using 2nd round and later picks I’m all in. Which is why I’m a hard core seller if there is any doubt about playoffs

    The ‘let the guys try’ mantra is wrong and from the previous regime. For me after the team has had half a season with a respectful calm and reasonable coach and calm respectful GM, any hard decisions should not be received in the wrong way. Piss or get off the pot.

    They’ll be fine with that.

  147. meanashell11 says:

    Harpers Hair: I hate Cheezies…always have.

    But I would let go for a tumbler of Shelter Point.

    I love Cheezies.

    Whenever I am out west (live in CT now) my wife makes me bring back bags of Cheezies. The border patrol always laugh when they check my carry on, stuffed to the gunnel with bags of Cheezies!

  148. Harpers Hair says:

    meanashell11: I love Cheezies.

    Whenever I am out west (live in CT now) my wife makes me bring back bags of Cheezies. The border patrol always laugh when they check my carry on, stuffed to the gunnel with bags of Cheezies!

    Nothing exceeds like excess.

  149. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Nothing exceeds like excess.

    Love the gray areas.

  150. BONE207 says:

    godot10:
    I wonder if Kris Russell had Chicago on his no trade list.

    Russell and Manning/Gagner plus a prospect Chicago likes (not Bouchard or Broberg or Samourukov) for Saad would make a lot of sense for both teams.

    GordieHoweHatTrick:

    The best moves for trades at the moment are Russell and one of Jones/Lagesson. I think Jones has highest trade value of the 3. Russell could be a possibility at the trade deadline or over the summer.

    Harpers Hair: If that is accurate you need to examine which of those teams might need or want Russell.

    OriginalPouzar:

    This works MUCH better for the Oil if its Russell as oppossed to Manning as the can’t fit Sadd in next year right now (assuming a Nurse re-sign) without letting Kass go and/or buying out Neal (which is not a great result).

    As the unofficial spokesman for Ricki The Bear, I find all this talk as lunacy.

    He has unearthed all the data that was buried by Verdink, the dog, & showed that Kris Russell has like .37 EVGA/60 or just about zero!!! The damn guy will take away all the shot attempts from open hole if he doesn’t outright block them altogether. Trading away KR would put the Oilers into a hole that they’ll never get out of…wait, I hear something stirring in the cave behind me. Time to go…

  151. pts2pndr says:

    Ben:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    See my last about the Ellis/Morrissey/Myers contracts. There’s no need to “risk” 6.5M on this player when better players are currently signing cheaper max deals.

    Not sure what an ‘objectively’ fair number looks like for Nurse, but it should probably start with a 5.

    You would be correct if the team had not decided to go the cheap route when he came off his entry level deal. The contract cost automatically goes up for better players when you start to buy free agent years. Nurse should have been locked up for eight years coming off his entry level deal just like the team did with Klefbom. That was an opportunity missed. It seemed stupid signing Nuge, Hall and Eberle to six million dollar deals right out of their entry deals but one turned out to be a great deal for the team (Hall), one turned out to be fair market (Nuge) and one turned out one might argue to be a slight overpay (Eberle). Once a player gets arbitration rights you pay market value or greater for long term deals or risk the player going to free agency.

  152. Dicky94 says:

    Pechetr,

    It’s happening to the Jets right now too. No one to keep the peace. If Kassian is traded I hope another younger loose cannon who can play the game is coming back.

  153. Dicky94 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I see a 1 in there!

  154. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Myers contract is for declining years.Nurse’s contract is for prime years.

    Myres doesn’t have the skating ability and we are in a league where speed is the new best skill. Nurse at 3/4 speed is faster than Myres. Speed allows better gap control and hence better D. Speed also allows the D to join the rush as required. Myres could acquire the nick name pylon for the last third of his contract. They are not close to the same player in my opinion.

  155. pts2pndr says:

    Dicky94:
    Pechetr,

    It’s happening to the Jets right now too.No one to keep the peace. If Kassian is traded I hope another younger loose cannon who can play the game is coming back.

    Kassian has just the right amount of crazy to make him hard to replace.

  156. pts2pndr says:

    meanashell11: I love Cheezies.

    Whenever I am out west (live in CT now) my wife makes me bring back bags of Cheezies. The border patrol always laugh when they check my carry on, stuffed to the gunnel with bags of Cheezies!

    When I was living in LA it was coffee crisps.

  157. godot10 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Writing’s on the wall for Benson. Perfect opportunity to bring him up was when Kass and Nuge were injured. Now he’s passed for Yamamoto, who has inferior numbers at the AHL level.

    This was done by a GM lauded for his willingness to leave players in the smalls until he deemed them ready. So take from that what you will.

    So we’re trying to compelt Bowman to gives us Saad for our dross? Usual day at the office here, then.

    Nurse needs signing or trading – the maturation of the good D prospects, which is a strange problem for the Oilers to have, drives this.I firmly believe some of those prospects may turn out to be better players than Nurse.

    Log jam in the D prospects means for once we actually may be able to deal for need from strength.

    First year NHL defensemen are not ready for top 4 duty 95% of the time. Klefbom’s contract will have expired and the OIlers will be over a 3rd through his next contract before the prospects are ready for top 4 duty, unless the Oilers are freaky lucky.

    Neither Samorukov or Bouchard look like phenoms at the AHL level. So development will not be quick. Fast arrivers announce themselves quickly. Bear was up in his first season, dragged Lowe to respectability as year, and went boom in his 3rd year.

    So two years for Bouchard, and three for Samorukov, and at least a couple for Broberg.

  158. godot10 says:

    Pechetr:
    A lot of talk the last few days about moving Kassian on. Can someone please explain to me who keeps opponents honest against McDavid if this happens? The refs? Did we not see what happened to Calgary last year in the playoffs once the physicality ramps up? Did we all not envy the St Louis team that plays fast, skilled and heavy? Let’s trade one of our best skaters that happens to have good hands and a nasty side shall we? You think the cheap shots on McDavid will be better or worse after Kassian is gone? Just some “intangibles” to ponder.

    Neither Kassian nor Lucic have ever protected McDavid. McDavid gets slashed on the hands all the time. I don’t see Kassian doing any protecting.

  159. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Nurse on term under 6 is perfect especially if there remains ability to trade him in a few years.

    To me good players without excessive trade restrictions shouldn’t be hard to move if necessary, which is key. Only special players should get that, but it is a player’s league ATM.

    Nurse is not signing for term under $6 million. He will go the arbitration route to free agency.in two years. He can get in the fives in arbitration.

  160. McSorley33 says:

    godot10: Nurse is not signing for term under $6 million.He will go the arbitration route to free agency.in two years.He can get in the fives in arbitration.

    Exactly.

    If people are expecting/wanting Nurse to sign for under 6 – they are going to be greatly disappointed.

    The comp is Morrissey….and as someone else posted +/- 250k of that….

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Again, I wasn’t defending paying Nurse $6.5M. Why is this so hard?

    Seeing the number responses to you saying the same thing the issue is in your wording and not everyone’s understanding.

    Or,

    “No, it’s the children who are wrong” – Seymour Skinner

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair:

    But I would let go for a tumbler of Shelter Point.

    Still haven’t remembered to get any

  163. El Duderino says:

    knighttown: I don’t disagree.The challenge with acquiring this particular asset is that you simply don’t know.You could get 5th round value or you could get 1st round value.

    Kassian has 26 points and Kreider has 24.Both are 29.

    I expect that Kreider fetches significantly more at the deadline because at least the acquiring party knows what he’s getting.Kreider is Charlie Coyle.Safe, reliable, dependable.If he’s played in a similar role he should produce similar results.

    In reality, there’s a non-zero chance that Kassian has more of an impact on a good team down the stretch and in the playoffs but will teams pay the price to find out?

    So do you mean slim chance, good chance, likely, probable, or certain? Non-zero is confusing, not at all straight forward. Why use it in place of simpler language?

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    Haven’t ingested one in likely 5 plus years, however, please confirm we are speaking of legit cheezies, the hard/crunchy variety and not the terrible “cheezy poofs”……

  165. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Great photo of what 60 pounds weight and six inches height difference represents. It looks like a 15 year old kid playing in a men’s league by mistake. If KY is the prospect in a deal for Saad, I’m all over it.

  166. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Still haven’t remembered to get any

    Alcohol affects the somethingorother in the brain

  167. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Haven’t ingested one in likely 5 plus years, however, please confirm we are speaking of legit cheezies, the hard/crunchy variety and not the terrible “cheezy poofs”……

    Well one is a delicious, crunchy, salty, unhealthy treat.
    The other is blasphemy and should not be spoken of

  168. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: Myres doesn’t have the skating ability and we are in a league where speed is the new best skill. Nurse at 3/4 speed is faster than Myres. Speed allows better gap control and hence better D. Speed also allows the D to join the rush as required. Myrescould acquire the nick name pylon for the last third of his contract. They are not close to the same player in my opinion.

    None of this is true. Myers is a plus skater..at least a match for Nurse.

    He also a much better passer than Nurse now and likely in the future.

    Both struggle with defensive decision making which has been the book on Myers for years.

  169. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Still haven’t remembered to get any

    You won’t regret it when you do.

  170. Oz says:

    https://streamable.com/imua5
    Wilde
    Last night I posted that KY be left down for the season to develop his strength …… then he did this 😎
    That was a fine play, but I would have still preferred Benson as the call up

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wonder if Kailer will get an PK time tomorrow?

    He’s been PK1 for a while in the Bake and has done a very good job.

    With Granlund off the roster and P. Russell not slated to play, he may get some third pairing time, if needed.

    I don’t think he’ll get much PK time right away but its a skill that will help him stay in the NHL, if he can translate his PK ability to the next level.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thought college hockey was off until New Year but there are some limited games going on.

    Brind’Amour with an assist through two game – plus 1 in each game.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coach’s update on Starrett: Similar spot – managing this lower body muscular injury. Its a day to day situation. Its fluid. He’s feeling better.

  174. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Seeing the number responses to you saying the same thing the issue is in your wording and not everyone’s understanding.

    Or,

    “No, it’s the children who are wrong” – Seymour Skinner

    No, read what I actually wrote. You’re smart enough, just take the time to read it.

    “The number of responses…” just you and 1 other guy misunderstood, and he was caught up in the heat of sparing with several people at once.

  175. knighttown says:

    El Duderino: So do you mean slim chance, good chance, likely, probable, or certain?Non-zero is confusing, not at all straight forward. Why use it in place of simpler language?

    I never really thought about it I guess? Non-zero is sort of a pseudo-intellectual way of saying “slim”…kind of. It’s nothing specific but implies hope.

    “There’s a slim chance Bianca could beat Serena” sounds negative/realistic versus

    “There’s a non-zero chance Bianca could beat Serena”, to me, implies the same odds but with optimism.

    Not sure where I picked it up but assumed it was pretty common.

    Anyway, I feel Kreider will cost more but there’s some hope Kassian would end up being the better asset.

  176. v4ance says:

    Tampa trades 33 yr old forward Chris Mueller to the Ducks for 25 yr old LD Patrick Sieloff. Mostly an AHL trade but the funny stat line is Sieloff has 2 NHL games, has 2 goals, 2 PIM and is -1 for those 2 games.

    Every NHL game Sieloff has gotten into, he’s scored. Every team should trade for him, insert him into the big club for one match and then pass him on.

  177. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: None of this is true. Myers is a plus skater..at least a match for Nurse.

    He also a much better passer than Nurse now and likely in the future.

    Both struggle with defensive decision making which has been the book on Myers for years.

    Plus skater is news to me, also a long time hockey observer.

    WG posted a while back his struggles against good players, and that was on the Jets when they were good.

    Could be worse, could be a lot better.

    Given the fact I’m an Oilers only fan, I hope he’s top pairing all season long.

  178. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Plus skater is news to me, also a long time hockey observer.

    WG posted a while back his struggles against good players, and that was on the Jets when they were good.

    Could be worse, could be a lot better.

    Given the fact I’m an Oilers only fan, I hope he’s top pairing all season long.

    You may actually want to watch some Canucks games before passing judgement.

    With Edler back he typically plays second pairing minutes and is doing fine.

    The Hughes/Myers pairing is very good.

    Who you play with makes a huge impact. In Winnipeg he was playing with Peg Leg Pete and friends.

    2 goals and an assist last night.

    Amazing how narratives develop amongst people who have no idea what they’re talking about.

  179. Johnny skid says:

    Harpers Hair: Amazing how narratives develop amongst people who have no idea what they’re talking about.

    this comment describes you well.

  180. v4ance says:

    Real nice video breakdown of the Leaf’s new offensive tactics under Sheldon Keefe:

    https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/12/30/21041683/the-new-maple-leafs-offensive-system-could-change-the-nhl-for-the-better-sheldon-keefe

    This kind of embedded video blog post reminds me of the best work of Tyler Dellow just before he got hired on by NHL teams.

  181. knighttown says:

    v4ance:
    Real nice video breakdown of the Leaf’s new offensive tactics under Sheldon Keefe:

    https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/12/30/21041683/the-new-maple-leafs-offensive-system-could-change-the-nhl-for-the-better-sheldon-keefe

    This kind of embedded video blog post reminds me of the best work of Tyler Dellow just before he got hired on by NHL teams.

    What an amazing read. It really does feel like the Oilers are always a decade or two behind doesn’t it.

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    SH goal for Broberg this morning.

  183. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    SH goal for Broberg this morning.

    Sweden has given up 5 even strength goals in the tournament, Broberg has been on for 4 of them?!?

    Zegras leading the tourney in scoring.

    Discuss

  184. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Midseason review of ‘reasonable expectations’ shows Oilers are on track with preseason targets

    https://theathletic.com/1484524/2019/12/31/lowetide-midseason-review-of-reasonable-expectations-shows-oilers-are-on-track-with-preseason-targets/

  185. HT Joe says:

    texmex: Sweden has given up 5 even strength goals in the tournament, Broberg has been on for 4 of them?!?

    Zegras leading the tourney in scoring.

    Discuss

    We hoped for the best…

  186. Lowetide says:

    texmex: Sweden has given up 5 even strength goals in the tournament, Broberg has been on for 4 of them?!?

    Zegras leading the tourney in scoring.

    Discuss

    I think he’s playing a very big role for a player at 18. Lots of PK time, top 4D at evens last I checked. A player like Sandin, who is 15 months older and playing a feature role, looks more impressive because he’s more mature and getting PP time. I know it’s ‘crap on Broberg’ time, but would encourage people to remember it’s a small sample and that he’s playing a lot of minutes without easy PP time.

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not to mention, while its great to have team prospects excel at this tournament, this small sample tournament has proven to not be a direct correlation to NHL success or lack thereof over the years.

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