Working on a Building

by Lowetide

Bill James once wrote a wonderful piece on the Minnesota Twins during the early years of the WS team’s development. It was called “That was One Ugly Baby” and detailed a rotten season played by a plethora of youngsters who would one day bring glory to Minneapolis, led by an unassuming man named Tom Kelly as manager.

Summary: It didn’t look too good when those young kids arrived and kicked the ball all over the yard, but just a few years later the organization won it all. The emergence of Frank Viola, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti and Tom Brunansky in 1982 gave the club an enormous lift, later aided by the addition of Kirby Puckett (1984) and some astute trade additions.

Point being it’s very difficult to identify the exact moment when a team turns true north. One of the things we can count is prospects who develop into actual NHL players.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers waive veterans Markus Granlund, Brandon Manning in Saturday shakeup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
  • Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending depth chart in need of talent injection
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
  • Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanBroken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanGrasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
  • Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
  • Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS

I do a ‘reasonable expectations’ series every August-September, it’s my best guess about how things are going to go in the coming season. I pegged the Oilers to finish with 88 points, their overall goal differential at 239-250 (it’s at 116-128 currently). I had Connor McDavid scoring 48 goals and 116 points, Leon getting 93 points. James Neal? 18 goals.

You know what I didn’t have? And this is the part where the 1982 Minnesota Twins come in. I didn’t have Ethan Bear scoring 12 points in 41 games, playing like a veteran. That’s an important piece to this season’s story. If Edmonton can add Bear and a couple of others from the ‘not sure’ pile, this season will have served a purpose. Now, making the playoffs is cooler, but credit where due the team gave Ethan Bear a chance to emerge and Evan Bouchard a chance to adjust. There’s value in these things.

ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS

Back in September, I counted 12 ‘actual’ NHL players. There were: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Kassian, Neal, Chiasson, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell, Benning, Koskinen.

I also counted 12 ‘solid hopefuls’ on my RE roster, players who I projected to play more than 35+ games but had some uncertain elements. They were: Evan Bouchard, Joel Persson, Cooper Marody, Jujhar Khaira, Riley Sheahan, Sam Gagner, Markus Granlund, Gaetan Haas, Josh Archibald, Joakim Nygard, Caleb Jones, Mike Smith.

Finally, there were a group of 10 ‘distant hopefuls’ who I projected to play fewer than 35 games. The names included Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Tomas Jurco, Josh Currie, William Lagesson, Colby Cave, Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto, Patrick Russell and Shane Starrett.

Halfway through the season, the actual NHL players have mostly covered the bet, with injuries and slumps having some impact. The hopeful dozen have been a mixture of handbags and gladrags along the way. The distant hopefuls have gifted the roster Ethan Bear, Patrick Russell and possibly the two Sunday recalls (Yamamoto and Lagesson).

Lines and pairings via Wilde and I thank him. Condors won twice on the weekend and in doing so moved up to No. 5 in the AHL Pacific. The band (Benson-Marody-Currie) is back together, Evan Bouchard is playing better and Stuart Skinner stopped just enough shots two win the day. This team lacks the experience of last year’s blue and the steady goaltending of veteran Shane Starrett. I can’t wait to see the new lines and pairings with Manning and Granlund in the mix.

This is correct. It’s important to remember that Ken Holland has no attachment to any draft pick chosen before Philip Broberg. All of these kids are orphans. What’s more, Ken Holland is going to have a different grade on all the prospects. Some of the previous picks he might value more than Peter Chiarelli did, others less so.

I was genuinely surprised by the reaction to the Yamamoto recall. For me, it was basically a coin flip. Benson had the better numbers (my article at The Athletic from yesterday drills down) and the most improvement year over year. That said, Yamamoto’s offense has been improving lately (4-3-7 in his last eight games before recall) and he was the most dynamic player in Bakersfield. Benson (0-6-6 in his last three games) has been delivering more often but owns a different skill set. He’ll get his turn. For Oilers fans, we’re learning what Ken Holland values. The fact it doesn’t match your view, or the view of Peter Chiarelli, should come as no surprise.

As for YKOil’s idea, makes sense. If Brandon Saad is in play, ‘Hawks ask is likely to be young players and there would be a large contract going back (Saad is a $6 million hit). Maybe it’s Gagner and some dollars retained, something like that. I think Jones might be a more likely trade acquisition based on Chicago’s depth chart but that’s a guess.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back to shake off the Christmas rust and begin the quick climb to New Year’s. There’s a good chance we hit the air a little before 10, as the WJ game (Canada versus Germany) probably ends around 9:30. Show officially begins 10 this morning, TSN1260. Chris Meaney from The Athletic will talk NFL at 10:20, Guy Flaming from The Pipeline Show at 10:40 will talk WJ’s and Oil Kings. At 11, Jason Gregor talks Oilers, NFL playoffs and World Juniors. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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HugThePost

The photo for today’s blogpost makes me very worried for Yamo. I don’t know who the other guy is in the pic and perhaps he is a behemoth of a man but Kailer looks like a child in that photo.

I hope he physically is stronger now because there are a lot of guys in the NHL who are just as fast if not faster than he is and they have 20-40 lb in weight on him.

Maybe he is here to be showcased for a trade, maybe the Oil hope he can be a plus player to help their turnaround. Either way, godspeed Kailer!

Woodguy v2.0

WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Cental
STL 18
COL 11
DAL 8

Pacific
VAN 6
VGP 6
ARI 5

Wildcard
WPG 6
NSH 4

Out of playoffs
CGY 4
MIN 3
EDM 3
CHI 0
ANA -2
SJS -3
LAK -5

VAN beats CGY and takes the division lead. DSF could hang a wet towel on his excitement.

Rittch got pulled after 3 goals on 7 shots.

ARI blew a 2-0 3rd period lead to DAL last night. Taylor Hall is a problem everywhere he goes AMIRGIHT?

WPG slides down into the wildcard race, I expect them to stay in that spot or go out of the playoffs.

Relevant games tonight: None

The turtle derby helps EDM. They’re not out of this by a long shot.

Woodguy v2.0

EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Metropolitan
WSH 19
NYI 14
PIT 12

Atlantic
BOS 17
TBY 7
FLA 7

Wildcard
PHI 10
CAR 9

Out of playoffs
TOR 7
NYR 4
MTL 3
CBJ 3
BUF 1
OTT -2
NJD -6
DET -19

MTL starting to fade in the Atlantic race.

Both Florida teams won last night pushing TOR down.

Some separation starting to come to make it only a 3 team race for the final 2 Atlantic spots.

Injuries really hurting MTL lately.

Relevant games tonight: None

Only NHL game is OTT at PIT (-260). Should be a slam dunk for PIT.

v4ance

Jones and Yamamoto would line up with Chicago’s rebuild but I think that would be an overpay for Saad, even with a cap dump of Neal. That trade could have us regretting it like we have regretted the Petry trade or the Canadiens regretting the Gomez for Ryan McDonagh trade.

But that is the basic point. If Holland doesn’t value the orphans like Jones or Yamamoto as much as other orphans in the system, they could be gone in a misguided fire sale.

If it was my decision, Jones & Neal should be enough to get it done but if Yamo is the outgoing piece, package Gagner and or Russell to even out the cap hits. Russell wants to stay in western Canada but Chicago is the United Airlines airport hub with great flight connections so that might get past his NTC.

PennersPancakes

HugThePost:
The photo for today’s blogpost makes me very worried for Yamo.I don’t know who the other guy is in the pic and perhaps he is a behemoth of a man but Kailer looks like a child in that photo.

I hope he physically is stronger now because there are a lot of guys in the NHL who are just as fast if not faster than he is and they have 20-40 lb in weight on him.

Maybe he is here to be showcased for a trade, maybe the Oil hope he can be a plus player to help their turnaround.Either way, godspeed Kailer!

Givani Smith is listed at 6 2 210lbs while Yamamoto is listed at 5 8 158.

Yamamoto is going to lose some absolute strength contests but I think he understands that. Its not like he recently shrunk and has to adapt, hes always been undersized and has a play style to maximize that. Im still worried myself but hoping like hell he pans out.

Ben

If you’re fitting Saad’s $6M into the cap for this year and next, you’re shooting your shot. Once they overpay Nurse and Kassian, that’ll be that for space. Is 45-50 points from Saad enough to make this a playoff team next year?

I don’t like the idea of trading Benson before taking a look at him in the big leagues. At .47 NHLE, there’s a decent chance he brings most of Saad’s offense for a fraction of the cost.

And your daily reminder that Nurse is not worth $6.5M, which would be the 18th highest cap hit for a defenseman in the entire league–this for a fast-skating, physical guy who doesn’t pass or read well. He’s good, but just not that good.

barry.moore23

WG,

Is Arizona going to be able to hang on ? According to Hockey Reference PDO is 100.6, save % .923 (both 5×5). GF (5×5) are +5 scoring chances are below 50%. I know I should be cheering against them but I can’t. We’ll be at the game tomorrow night vs. Blues. Yes, we know our job: yell at the refs 🙂 Hope Mrs. WG and your daughter (what is she about 8 or 9 by now?) are healthy and content this new year. Any pets ??

McSorley33

As usual , LT puts things in perspective.

For a lot of us – playoffs this year was a pipe dream.

The emergence of Bear and the incredible speed of C Jones has been remarkable.

We need Benson and Kailer to develop into real NHL players. I would like to look at both
this year.

Kailer has speed and tenacity.

Our sole focus needs to be trading pieces Kenny does not want at the deadline for picks. We need way more prospects – at the Forward – position.

PennersPancakes

v4ance,

With Chicago trading Jokiharju (wish the Oilers could have snuck in) and de Haan/Seabrook injuries it feels like that defense would be their priority. Dont know if its anything more than a day off to rest but Chicago decided to play Connor Murphy, Slater Koekkoek, and Dennis Gilbert while sitting 4M AAV Olli Maata.

No idea whats going on there to be honest. Bowman is a wild card and who knows what happens.

Nix

Just listened to the Holland interview at the WJC. Of course he has wisdom and experience up the wazoo and this is gonna sound disrespectful as hell but the man cant even form a sentence and sounds like hes having a stroke. Took five minutes to ‘errrr, ahhhh, ummm’ his way into saying ‘yeah thats sports for ya’. Its disturbing.

who

v4ance:
Jones and Yamamoto would line up with Chicago’s rebuild but I think that would be an overpay for Saad, even with a cap dump of Neal.That trade could have us regretting it like we have regretted the Petry trade or the Canadiens regretting the Gomez for Ryan McDonagh trade.

But that is the basic point.If Holland doesn’t value the orphans like Jones or Yamamoto as much as other orphans in the system, they could be gone in a misguided fire sale.

If it was my decision, Jones & Neal should be enough to get it done but if Yamo is the outgoing piece, package Gagner and or Russell to even out the cap hits.Russell wants to stay in western Canada but Chicago is the United Airlines airport hub with great flight connections so that might get past his NTC.

At first glance, I thought it would be an overpay as well.
But getting a year and a half of Saad, and more importantly, getting rid of 3 years of Neal, is worth Yamamoto and Jones. Easily.
Would solve all of the Oilers cap problems with one trade.

Yeti

who: At first glance, I thought it would be an overpay as well.
But getting a year and a half of Saad, and more importantly, getting rid of 3 years of Neal, is worth Yamamoto and Jones. Easily.
Would solve all of the Oilers cap problems with one trade.

But why on earth would Chicago take Neal? It’s completely implausible.

who

Yeti: But why on earth would Chicago take Neal? It’s completely implausible.

Yep.
I don’t see Chicago doing it either. Just saying it would be a good move for the Oilers.

Dicky94

who,

I can’t see Neil going anywhere. McDavid wanted him to be an Oiler. As for Yamo and Jones, I can see them going to New Jersey. I’m sure Holland and Shero talked about some other players than just Taylor Hall.

OriginalPouzar

Ethan Bear was playing like a veteran for the first quarter of the season, however, I would posit that he’s been playing very much like a rookie for the second quarter of the season.

Along with the “slow down” of McDavid/Drai, Klef, the tending, etc., the slow down in Bear’s play has been a part of the Oilers’ “slump”.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a revelation, playing top 4 minutes, on the right side, moving the puck well and a big part of the team and the future, however, “rookie mistakes” have leaked in to his game and not just here or there but consistently – nightly – multiple times per game.

This was to be expected given the minutes he’s been playing, top 4 minutes plus PK along with the league now having tape on him.

At the same time, lets cools our jets on 8 years X $4M. If we can get him on paper for term under $3M, go for it.

norm_klassen

Bear patrol should be qualified but you dont need to just sign him now to a 4 million deal. Every D man needs a body of work and forwards before hanging out millions
If he explodes for 40 points sure u never know

Ryan

McSorley33:
As usual , LT puts things in perspective.

For a lot of us – playoffs this year was a pipe dream.

The emergence of Bear and the incredible speed of C Jones has been remarkable.

We need Benson and Kailer to develop into real NHL players. I would like to look at both
this year.

Kailer has speed and tenacity.

Our sole focus needs to be trading pieces Kenny does not want at the deadline for picks. We need way more prospects – at the Forward – position.

Honest question, what does Kassian get you at the deadline?

Dustylegnd

ARI blew a 2-0 3rd period lead to DAL last night.Taylor Hall is a problem everywhere he goes AMIRGIHT?

He is a problem in their room

SVR

Most of the discussion on Yamamoto call up, but I’m more intrigued about the swap of Manning and Lagesson.

Manning is the guy you want sitting in the press box on a nightly basis. I want to get a look at Lagesson, but who sits? With Benning apparently a week or so away, things get even more crowded.

Gives some credence to the trade is coming theory imo

dustrock

Thought Lavoie played well for Canada today. No real mistakes, good along the boards, made a couple of nice defensive plays.

Thought he might have tipped Addison’s shot but I guess not.

He was getting like sub-4th line minutes but got more time today.

v4ance

OriginalPouzar:
Ethan Bear was playing like a veteran for the first quarter of the season, however, I would posit that he’s been playing very much like a rookie for the second quarter of the season.

Along with the “slow down” of McDavid/Drai, Klef, the tending, etc., the slow down in Bear’s play has been a part of the Oilers’ “slump”.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a revelation, playing top 4 minutes, on the right side, moving the puck well and a big part of the team and the future, however, “rookie mistakes” have leaked in to his game and not just here or there but consistently – nightly – multiple times per game.

This was to be expected given the minutes he’s been playing, top 4 minutes plus PK along with the league now having tape on him.

At the same time, lets cools our jets on 8 years X $4M. If we can get him on paper for term under $3M, go for it.

When I first proposed an 8 year extension for Bear in October, I stated that we should try for the “Josi” contract and get him for around $3.25 AAV ($26 mil over 8 years). At that price point, he would be a slightly overpaid bottom pair defenceman but if he maintains as a top 4D, you’re laughing all the way to the bank. If he becomes a top pair D, you’re playing with house money and can apply those “saved” cap dollars (assuming a 1st pair D should be getting $6 mil++) to improve the roster in another area.

The entire core of the “extend Bear now for 8 years” is you’re gambling that you’ve identified a Top 4 D before the player has gotten enough contract leverage. Use that leverage to sign him to a cap friendly deal. $4 million is not cap friendly. At least not until the cap rises to $100 million.

London Jon

McSorley33:
As usual , LT puts things in perspective.

For a lot of us – playoffs this year was a pipe dream.

The emergence of Bear and the incredible speed of C Jones has been remarkable.

We need Benson and Kailer to develop into real NHL players. I would like to look at both
this year.

Kailer has speed and tenacity.

Our sole focus needs to be trading pieces Kenny does not want at the deadline for picks. We need way more prospects – at the Forward – position.

Ethan Bear was surprisingly quick in the fastest skater (pinch of salt) – three tenths faster than Caleb Jones if I remember correctly. Haas was also surprisingly quick.

JimmyV1965

I would be very, very reluctant to trade Jones. A year ago at this time he was our best dman prospect not named Bouchard and he was ahead of Bear. I think I would rather trade Larsson than Jones. I kinda feel like an idiot saying it because Larsson is here and playing well, but he will be gone in 18 months.

PS. Bear needs to sit and he needs to sit on a regular basis. This league is murder on rookie NHL dmen. They need a break once in awhile.

JimmyV1965

Yeti: But why on earth would Chicago take Neal? It’s completely implausible.

There’s no way the Hawks take Neal. I hope I’m so very wrong, but just don’t see it happening.

McSorley33

Ryan: Honest question, what does Kassian get you at the deadline?

The attributes that I think get you a 2nd round pick, speed, physical size and reasonably soft hands.make some GM’s drool.

Now, I could be shooting too high here. But there are soo many teams that think they can at least make the playoffs .

But if Zach wants to get paid ( and i don’t blame him ) we need to move on so I even take a 3rd round pick in 2020, no?

4th line tough guy Nicolas Deslaurier garnered a 4th round pick this past June.

What are your thoughts?

JimmyV1965

Ryan: Honest question, what does Kassian get you at the deadline?

It has to be more than a second rounder that is 45OV or worse. I would want a Jones like prospect. Maybe that’s too much.

Wilde

HugThePost:
The photo for today’s blogpost makes me very worried for Yamo.I don’t know who the other guy is in the pic and perhaps he is a behemoth of a man but Kailer looks like a child in that photo.

I hope he physically is stronger now because there are a lot of guys in the NHL who are just as fast if not faster than he is and they have 20-40 lb in weight on him.

Maybe he is here to be showcased for a trade, maybe the Oil hope he can be a plus player to help their turnaround.Either way, godspeed Kailer!

https://streamable.com/imua5

knighttown

JimmyV1965: It has to be more than a second rounder that is 45OV or worse. I would want a Jones like prospect. Maybe that’s too much.

Like it or not, he’s tarnished with the McDavid brush. Not dissimilar to Patrick Maroon or even Ty Rattie.

He was an overpaid 4th liner last year and now he’s a first liner? GMs are pretty reluctant to get fleeced so I think many will shop in a different aisle.

fwiw; I think he’s a 3rd line talent with a nice dose of grit so a 2/3 is probably value.

Professor Q

What crazy times for my Oilers and Browns.

We’ll see if either can improve.

Sierra

who: At first glance, I thought it would be an overpay as well.
But getting a year and a half of Saad, and more importantly, getting rid of 3 years of Neal, is worth Yamamoto and Jones. Easily.
Would solve all of the Oilers cap problems with one trade.

Yesterday people were saying the Hawks want prospects not actual NHL defensemen because trading Saad is a cap dump, so why would the Hawks give one second of thought to taking on Neal?

knighttown

Is the bar lower to clear for defense prospects versus forwards simply because we don’t look at boxcars for rookie D?

Although Jones is the only one of the 9 Oilers defense to have played less than 20% of his time versus elites, he’s dead last at Rel Dangerous F % at -11.9. In whole numbers he’s at 36.4%.

Persson is +13 rel and 47%

Benning is -1 and 44%

So what he seems to have proven is that he can get his ass caved by elites worse than anyone else who we’ve tried at the 3RD slot this year.

So if we’re trying to identify a guy who can play in the Top-4 can we acknowledge that there’s very little on this years resume that says he’s ready?

So he gets a pass because of what…eye test? Handicapped because he’s playing offside and with Russ?

Just curious because it seems like there are 50 guys that could jump in on 3RD and produce in a similar fashion.

I do like the player but it just seems like the grading system for rookie/prospect defense is much kinder…drowning? No (well maybe but he did make that one nice play)…therefore success.

razor

What if we traded an unsigned Nurse for Saad?

JimmyV1965

McSorley33: The attributes that I think get you a 2nd round pick, speed, physical size and reasonably soft hands.make some GM’s drool.

Now, I could be shooting too high here. But there are soo many teams that think they can at least make the playoffs .

But if Zach wants to get paid ( and i don’t blame him ) we need to move on so I even take a 3rd round pick in 2020, no?

4th line tough guy Nicolas Deslaurier garnered a 4th round pick this past June.

What are your thoughts?

If the return for Kassian is a third rounder, something went terribly wrong.

Woodguy v2.0

barry.moore23:
WG,

Is Arizona going to be able to hang on ? According to Hockey Reference PDO is 100.6, save % .923 (both 5×5). GF (5×5) are +5 scoring chances are below 50%. I know I should be cheering against them but I can’t. We’ll be at the game tomorrow night vs. Blues. Yes, we know our job: yell at the refs Hope Mrs. WG and your daughter (what is she about 8 or 9 by now?) are healthy and content this new year. Any pets ??

Happy New Year Barry!!!

I always appreciate you and Mrs. Moore yelling at the refs for me in Glendale. Its needed.

Mrs Woodugy and Woodguyette are great. My girl is 11 in February. (!)

Mrs Woodguy got a rescue dog 3 years ago that loves her and our girl, but is suspicious of me even though I am the one that feeds him. His name is Pete. Maybe that’s why we don’t get along. 🙂

Raanta is going to need to be Raanta from last year for them to hang on until Kuemper gets back.

Since the Hall trade their CF% is up to 49%, but xGF% around 45% and an actual GF% of 44%

Here is their xGF% broken down by player since the Hall trade:

Forwards:
Player xGF%
Christian Dvorak 60.9
Conor Garland 60.1
Taylor Hall 59.0 <—– I blame this fucking guy
Phil Kessel 52.6
Nick Schmaltz 46.3
Clayton Keller 43.9
Derek Stepan 42.7
Carl Soderberg 42.2
Lawson Crouse 40.5
Vinnie Hinostroza 36.9
Brad Richardson 28.5
Michael Grabner 27.9
Christian Fischer 10.3

Dmen:
Player xGF%
Ilya Lyubushkin 55.5
Jakob Chychrun 53.1
Alex Goligoski 49.1
Oliver Ekman-Larsson 47.0
Aaron Ness 46.5
Jason Demers 37.5
Jordan Oesterle 32.0
Jordan Gross 31.4

Looks like they have end of the roster issues with both F and D. Demers has been back for 3 games off an injury and has re-started slow.

ArmchairGM

Serious question: is Saad going to help the Oilers more than Sam Gagner?

P/60, 2019-20:
Saad: 1.97
Gagner: 1.72

P/60, 2018-19:
Saad: 1.75
Gagner: 1.74 (Oilers portion)

CF% (CF/60 – CA-60), 2019-20:
Saad: 52.07% (64.38 – 59.27)
Gagner: 54.23 (61.58 – 51.97)

SF% (SF/60 – SA-60), 2019-20:
Saad: 50.18% (35.93 – 35.67)
Gagner: 57.03% (35.96 – 27.10)

GF% (GF/60 – GA-60), 2019-20:
Saad: 45.24% (2.49 – 3.02)
Gagner: 39.13% (2.22 – 3.45)

xGF% (xGF/60 – xGA-60), 2019-20:
Saad: 52.28% (2.86 – 2.61)
Gagner: 59.88% (2.85 – 1.91)

HDCF% (HDCF/60 – HDCA/60), 2019-20
Saad: 52.50% (13.77 – 12.46)
Gagner: 58.62% (12.56 – 8.87)

PDO (Sh% – Sv%)
Saad: 0.985 (6.93 – 91.54)
Gagner: 0.934 (6.16 – 87.27)

Both are a bit unlucky, but Gagner is suffering from poor goaltending to a much higher degree. And for a guy supposedly good defensively, Saad’s CA, SA and HDCA numbers are TERRIBLE. And they’ve been bad for 3 seasons now.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8476438

geowal

Fun game against the Germans! Glad to see a victory, hear the (terrible) Canadian goal song and see the flag rise with the whole crowd singing. Going to the quarters!

JimmyV1965

knighttown: Like it or not, he’s tarnished with the McDavid brush.Not dissimilar to Patrick Maroon or even Ty Rattie.

He was an overpaid 4th liner last year and now he’s a first liner?GMs are pretty reluctant to get fleeced so I think many will shop in a different aisle.

fwiw; I think he’s a 3rd line talent with a nice dose of grit so a 2/3 is probably value.

Interesting that you take this perspective. I see a third line talent who can play with skill and move up and down the lineup. I think he has way more value than Maroon because of his speed. And someone other than Chia is negotiating the deal.

Chia is an interesting fella. He was perfectly happy to accept a third round pick for Maroon, who had 14 goals and 30 pts in 57 games. Yet he turns around and gives up a third rounder for Alex Petrovic, who was healthy scratched multiple times the year we picked him up, played nine games with us and is now in the minors. I see a disconnect there.

OriginalPouzar

Matej Blümel moving up to the 2nd line for the Czech today.

OriginalPouzar

Lines at practice, as per Rishaug:

Neal McDavid Kassian
Nygard Draisaitl Yamamoto
Khaira RNH Gagner
Sheahan Haas Archibald

knighttown

JimmyV1965: Interesting that you take this perspective. I see a third line talent who can play with skill and move up and down the lineup. I think he has way more value than Maroon because of his speed. And someone other than Chia is negotiating the deal.

Chia is an interesting fella. He was perfectly happy to accept a third round pick for Maroon, who had 14 goals and 30 pts in 57 games. Yet he turns around and gives up a third rounder for Alex Petrovic, who was healthy scratched multiple times the year we picked him up, played nine games with us and is now in the minors. I see a disconnect there.

I don’t disagree. The challenge with acquiring this particular asset is that you simply don’t know. You could get 5th round value or you could get 1st round value.

Kassian has 26 points and Kreider has 24. Both are 29.

I expect that Kreider fetches significantly more at the deadline because at least the acquiring party knows what he’s getting. Kreider is Charlie Coyle. Safe, reliable, dependable. If he’s played in a similar role he should produce similar results.

In reality, there’s a non-zero chance that Kassian has more of an impact on a good team down the stretch and in the playoffs but will teams pay the price to find out?

Wilde

Bakersfield Condors v. Stockton Heat; December 28th, 2019; Game Totals:

43CF-40CA
25FF-20FA
2GF-2GA

Top F: Esposito (1.06 GS)
1 shot attempts, 2 primary shot assists, primary contribution %
1 goal
12CF-12CA
1GF-0GA

Top D: Lagesson (0.63 GS)
5 shot attempts, 1 primary shot assists, 26.09 primary contribution %
23CF-17CA
1GF-1GA

HugThePost

OriginalPouzar:
Lines at practice, as per Rishaug:

Neal McDavid Kassian
Nygard Draisaitl Yamamoto
Khaira RNH Gagner
Sheahan Haas Archibald

Looking at the centers, think of where we would be today if we had 2 more wingers who could produce?

PennersPancakes

HugThePost: Looking at the centers, think of where we would be today if we had 2 more wingers who could produce?

2 wingers who can produce 5v5 (because our PP is going to be elite regardless) and we’re cooking.

I was hoping Nygard could have been more of a Kahun.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:
Ethan Bear was playing like a veteran for the first quarter of the season, however, I would posit that he’s been playing very much like a rookie for the second quarter of the season.

Along with the “slow down” of McDavid/Drai, Klef, the tending, etc., the slow down in Bear’s play has been a part of the Oilers’ “slump”.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a revelation, playing top 4 minutes, on the right side, moving the puck well and a big part of the team and the future, however, “rookie mistakes” have leaked in to his game and not just here or there but consistently – nightly – multiple times per game.

This was to be expected given the minutes he’s been playing, top 4 minutes plus PK along with the league now having tape on him.

At the same time, lets cools our jets on 8 years X $4M. If we can get him on paper for term under $3M, go for it.

$3M x 5 is basically the Ryan Ellis contract. Bear has less pedigree and less offense than Ellis, so something just south of that number would be fantastic.

OriginalPouzar

Lagesson is paired with Larsson.

godot10

Ryan: Honest question, what does Kassian get you at the deadline?

The Oilers should trade Kassian and Manning for Galchenyuk and DeSmith, and do it now rather than later.

ArmchairGM

v4ance: When I first proposed an 8 year extension for Bear in October, I stated that we should try for the “Josi” contract and get him for around $3.25 AAV ($26 mil over 8 years).At that price point, he would be a slightly overpaid bottom pair defenceman but if he maintains as a top 4D, you’re laughing all the way to the bank.If he becomes a top pair D, you’re playing with house money and can apply those “saved” cap dollars (assuming a 1st pair D should be getting $6 mil++)to improve the roster in another area.

The entire core of the “extend Bear now for 8 years” is you’re gambling that you’ve identified a Top 4 D before the player has gotten enough contract leverage.Use that leverage to sign him to a cap friendly deal.$4 million is not cap friendly.At least not until the cap rises to $100 million.

Josi’s 2nd contract was a 7-year deal at 6.22% of the cap, roughly $5.2M AAV in 2020-21 dollars. Not a comp for Bear at all.

ArmchairGM

JimmyV1965:
I would be very, very reluctant to trade Jones.A year ago at this time he was our best dman prospect not named Bouchard and he was ahead of Bear. I think I would rather trade Larsson than Jones.I kinda feel like an idiot saying it because Larsson is here and playing well, but he will be gone in 18 months.

PS. Bear needs to sit and he needs to sit on a regular basis. This league is murder on rookie NHL dmen. They need a break once in awhile.

Benning will be back next week, that shouldn’t be a problem.

godot10

razor:
What if we traded an unsigned Nurse for Saad?

The Oilers would catch Detroit in the standings by the end of February.

ArmchairGM

knighttown: Like it or not, he’s tarnished with the McDavid brush.Not dissimilar to Patrick Maroon or even Ty Rattie.

He was an overpaid 4th liner last year and now he’s a first liner?GMs are pretty reluctant to get fleeced so I think many will shop in a different aisle.

fwiw; I think he’s a 3rd line talent with a nice dose of grit so a 2/3 is probably value.

Maroon scored 13 points in 17 games after being traded at the deadline to NJD and away from McDavid. Teams will give up a little more for a player that’s hot – they aren’t concerned with medium or long-term viability because he’s just a rental to them. I would think he could return a 2nd, or maybe a 3rd + B prospect.