Game 43 2019-20: Oilers at Sabres

by Lowetide

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is starting to post crooked numbers in five on five scoring. Oilers badly need him to deliver at career average levels. Despite being a No. 1 overall selection, posting crooked numbers in the discipline has never been his jam.

He has never posted 2.00 per 60 scoring at five on five in any season, but his average, and playing against great players mind, is 1.65 per 60. This season, he’s at 1.16/60 and that’s after scoring two goals in the last three games. Edmonton needs you, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: A shift-by-shift analysis of Kailer Yamamoto’s 2019-20 debut in the Oilers’ New Year’s Eve game.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: James Neal puts on New Year’s Eve show to remember in Oilers’ thriller
  • Lowetide: Midseason review of ‘reasonable expectations’ shows Oilers are on track with preseason targets
  • Jonathan Willis and Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How are our Oilers predictions holding up at the midseason mark? We decided to find out
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers midseason report card shows an unbalanced team with a lot of replaceable parts
  • Lowetide: Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
  • Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 43 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 20-20-3, 43 points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 21-17-4, 46 points; goal differential -7

A win tonight and the Oilers will touch greatness, or, well, the best team of the McDavid era. Still worried about the goal differential but the standings points can’t be taken away. Entering tonight, Edmonton is on a pace that would land them 90 points. That isn’t going to be enough to make a typical postseason.

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in January 2017: 0-1-0, no points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2018: 0-1-0, no points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in January 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in January 2020: TBD

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • On the road to: BUF, BOS, TOR, MTL, CAL (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: NAS, ARI, CAL, STL (Expected 1-2-1)
  • Overall expected result: 3-4-2, eight points in nine games
  • Current results: 0-0-0

I see possible points in Buffalo, Montreal and Calgary on the road (Oilers play well there) and believe the team will show well against everyone but St. Louis at home.

ROOKIE BLUE

I’ve been thinking lately about the Oilers’ rookies this season. They are all defensemen, and we might be looking at an impressive one-position crop. Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and Joel Persson have all played some, William Lagesson has now played an NHL game and at some point Evan Bouchard may also get into some games this year. That’s a large group for one season.

It got me thinking about single seasons and one position impact. Here are some that I noticed from Oilers history:

1980-81: Wingers Jari Kurri and Glenn Anderson; Defensemen Paul Coffey and Charlie Huddy.

1981-82: Goalies Grant Fuhr and Andy Moog both qualified under NHL rules.

1995-96: Wingers Miro Satan and Ryan Smyth.

2010-11: Wingers Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall

Maybe we’ll have a group of defensemen from 2019-20 join this group in the years ahead.

OSCAR

No word on Klefbom as I write this, Jonathan Willis is in Buffalo for The Athletic so follow him on twitter for updates. Huge possible impact on the January games. Even contemplating the pairings (Nurse-Bear, Jones-Larsson, Russell-Benning?) is a frightening idea. He is one of three blue who have played over 200 minutes against elites at five on five this season, according to Puck IQ.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are back, starting at 10, TSN1260. Lots of World Juniors and Oilers talk, with Bruce McCurdy (10:20) from the Cult of Hockey and Frank Seravalli (11am) from TSN chiming in. Your comments welcome at 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Woodguy v2.0

WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Central
STL 17
COL 10
DAL 9

Pacfic
VGP 7
VAN 6
ARI 6

Wildcard
WPG 7
EDM 4

Out of playoffs
NSH 3
CGY 3
MIN 2
CHI 1
ANA -3
LAK -4
SJS -4

Relevant games today:

EDM (+110) at BUF (-130) – I’d guess that Smith starts and BUF should be a slight favorite here.

TOR (-140) at WPG (+120) – TOR is worth a unit as is over 6.5 imo

NYR (+160) at CGY (-180) – NYR beat a good TOR team and scored 5 in one period in EDM. Worth half a unit at least at that price.

CHI (+130) at VAN (-150) – CHI is quietly 5-1-0 in their last 6 while beating WPG, COL, NYI, CBJ, and CGY. Only losing to NJD(!). They’re worth a unit as an underdog here.

PHI (+150) at VGP (-170) – I’d imagine if PHI had a New Year’s Eve party in Vegreville the flu will be rampant.

Woodguy v2.0

EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Metropolitan
WSH 18
NYI 15
PIT 13

Atlantic
BOS 17
TBY 8
TOR 8

Wildcard
CAR 10
PHI 9

Out of playoffs
FLA 6
CBJ 4
NYR 3
MTL 2
BUF 0
OTT -3
NJD -5
DET -18

Relevant Atlantic games today:

EDM (+110) at BUF (-130) – I’d guess that Smith starts and BUF should be a slight favorite here.

TOR (-140) at WPG (+120) – TOR is worth a unit as is over 6.5 imo

TBY (-150) at MTL (+130) – TBY has been winning, but not pretty. MTL still very injured. Not a ton of value here.

FLA (-140) at OTT (+120) – After getting shit-canned by an emotional CBJ team (Torts is good a that) they have an easier mark here.

Woodguy v2.0

jtblack:
Woodguy v2.0,

Jeez. a few takeaways.

Since Hall trade:

McD on was 62% now down to 52%.Wonder if that is just a weaker overall team since his 1st couple years.

The McD OFF is also cratering nicely each year.

The Playoff team jumps out like crazy.48.9% McD OFF– HELLO !!

Lastly, given multiple coaches, GM’s and Scouts – this can only be considered an overall Organizational Failure (Structure, Performance, Hockey Ops, etc).

#THISISUS

Mostly team.

The way to track this is to look at a player’s Relative Goal Share. This measure’s the player’s on ice 5v5 GF% vs when he’s off the ice.

Here is McDavid’s 5v5 GF% since he got here:

15/16 – 50.7%
16/17 – 62.1%
17/18 – 57.0%
18/19 – 50.4%
19/20 – 52.5%

So when looking at the decline since 16/17 its easy to assume that “McDavid has gotten worse”

When you look at his Relative 5v5 GF%, it tells a different story:

15/16 – 10.7%
16/17 – 13.2%
17/18 – 15.4%
18/19 – 9.9%
19/20 – 16.6%

Last year was his “off” year. This year is his best year in terms of putting up a 5v5 GF% that is “X%” better than the quality of his team.

That’s why when I read stuff like:

SkatinginSand: if McDavid was just motivated enough to take two more strides, this would not be a much discussed issue.

It makes my blood boil.

The goal the poster was referring to above was STL’s game winning goal on Dec 18th. McDavid was the closest Oiler to the goal scorer so he got a lot of the blame.

Thing is, he was never the 1st, 2nd or even 3rd Oiler who was supposed to cover the slot in that situation.

After everyone was raging about that goal and McDavid, LT noted this the next morning:


Everyone blames McDavid on that play, watch it again. He worked like a bugger to make it back, and couldn’t get there in time after O’Reilly’s impressive move behind the net that also left Ethan Bear out of the play. That’s a quality goal by St. Louis.

He was right.

I also noted in the comments:


Agreed that Drai’s flyby of slot was the the main culprit.

I can’t see how he thought he’d get a pass there, as there was no possession.

That’s exactly what “cheating for offense” looks like.

On the replay that showed the whole play from the Blue’s net point of view it was really clear that Drai was looping.

He was F1, Kassian F2 and McDavid F3.

Blaming F3 there makes no sense at all.

Then the next day Tippet fleshed that out in his post practice avail:

Re STL’s winning goal

Tippett talked about that today and said exactly what LT and I said.

Tippett pointed out 2 mistakes Drai did (I only caught the second one) and Kassian’s mistake as well.

The Drai mistake I didn’t know was that as F1 it was his job to go to the boards and not Nurse. If he does that Nurse doesn’t have to leave the front of the net.

So what you have is people blaming McDavid because “it looks like he’s not trying” or “he needs to play a better 200ft game” and I think that given his results on this shitty team that these statements are incredibly ignorant of what exactly he is achieving and many are assigning him blame that simply isn’t his blame to take because of the breakdowns in defensive coverage by the players who actually have those assignments.

Jon Willis wrote extensively about it recently: https://theathletic.com/1493217/2019/12/29/willis-the-oilers-have-actual-problems-connor-mcdavids-defensive-game-is-not-among-them/?source=shared-article

These tired tropes about the best players needing “to change their game for the team to win” make no sense.

McDavid is scoring 5v5 at a 16% clip better than the rest of the team. What do you want? 20%?

There were even critiques about McDavid after the Rags game. He went 1-0 5v5, his PP got 3 goals and still there are people bitching and moaning. There was even bitching and moaning that the team was laughing after the game.

WTF? Can’t laugh after a win? “Hockey is too serious a business and all players must grimly think about what they have done wrong and not enjoy a wild win”. Give me a break.

Also,

All this being said, I haven’t withheld my critique of Drai’s defensive play, because it actually is bad and has been for over a month now. Not sure why, but its there.

Here’s McDavid with and without Draisaitl for the season:

5v5 GF%
97 & 29 together (32-34) 48.5%
97 without 29 (10-4) 71.4%
29 without 97 (4-12) 25%
Neither on the ice: 38.2%

Look at those results and tell me again how much better McDavid needs to be, how he has to mature as a player, how he has to try, how he has to make his game 200ft, how this team will never go forward until he is more selfless.

“Hey Connor, you’re dragging a defensive liability from 25% to 48% goal share, you’re getting 71% of the goals when he’s not with you and the rest of your team scored at a 38% clip, you wanna start giving a fuck about trophies other than the Art Ross”

It boggles the mind that people can pay attention to this team and think that.

If you made a list of 100 things EDM needs to improve, McDavid’s play without the puck doesn’t make the list.

Consider this:

Here is EDM’s 5v5 Goal share from 07/08 to today with the highest scoring 5v5 player off the ice and where that ranks among all NHL teams:

07/08 -44.7% (19th)
08/09 – 49.2% (12th)
09/10 – 37.8% (30th)
10/11 – 41.1% (29th)
11/12 – 42.4% (27th)
12/13 – 43.3% (23rd)
13/14 – 38.7% (29th)
14/15 – 36.1% (28th)
15/16 – 40.0% (28th)
16/17 – 48.9% (12th)
17/18 – 41.1% (29th)
18/19 – 40.7% (30th)
19/20 – 35.9% (30th) (edited from 31st)

This team is the worst 5v5 Oiler team in regard to 5v5 goal share in the last 13 years when their best player is off the ice. It’s probably longer but the records don’t go back that far.

There are only 4 teams in the last 13 years to finish with a worse 5v5 Star Off GF%

2013 – FLA 34.1%
2014 – BUF 34.5%
2015 – BUF 34.4%
2017 – COL 32.5%

Year 5 of McDavid and here we are.

Do you know where those teams finished in the standings?

2013 – FLA 30th
2014 – BUF 30th
2015 – BUF 30th
2017 – COL 30th

Today EDM sits 8th in the West and in a playoff spot because of one person, Connor McDavid.

“Hey Atlas, if you didn’t skip your legs day last month maybe you could hold up the Moon too. Be better”

Man.

dessert1111

Looking at the West standings, I wonder how many teams are considering themselves sellers today. I think it might only be LA. Of course that’ll change over the next few weeks.

Out east, it looks like Ottawa, Detroit and NJ, with a handful for probably close to making that call.

JimmyV1965

Woodguy v2.0: Mostly team.

The way to track this is to look at a player’s Relative Goal Share.This measure’s the player’s on ice 5v5 GF% vs when he’s off the ice.

Here is McDavid’s 5v5 GF% since he got here:

15/16 – 50.7%
16/17 – 62.1%
17/18 – 57.0%
18/19 – 50.4%
19/20 – 52.5%

So when looking at the decline since 16/17 its easy to assume that “McDavid has gotten worse”

When you look at his Relative 5v5 GF%, it tells a different story:

15/16 – 10.7%
16/17 – 13.2%
17/18 – 15.4%
18/19 – 9.9%
19/20 – 16.6%

Last year was his “off” year.This year is his best year in terms of putting up a 5v5 GF% that is “X%” better than the quality of his team.

That’s why when I read stuff like:

It makes my blood boil.

The goal the poster was referring to above was STL’s game winning goal on Dec 18th.McDavid was the closest Oiler to the goal scorer so he got a lot of the blame.

Thing is, he was never the 1st, 2nd or even 3rd Oiler who was supposed to cover the slot in that situation.

After everyone was raging about that goal and McDavid LT noted this the next morning:


Everyone blames McDavid on that play, watch it again. He worked like a bugger to make it back, and couldn’t get there in time after O’Reilly’s impressive move behind the net that also left Ethan Bear out of the play. That’s a quality goal by St. Louis.

He was right.

I also noted in the comments:


Agreed that Drai’s flyby of slot was the the main culprit.


I can’t see how he thought he’d get a pass there, as there was no possession.

That’s exactly what “cheating for offense” looks like.

On the replay that showed the whole play from the Blue’s net point of view it was really clear that Drai was looping.

He was F1, Kassian F2 and McDavid F3.

Blaming F3 there makes no sense at all.

Then the next day Tippet fleshed that out in his post practice avail:


Re STL’s winning goal

Tippett talked about that today and said exactly what LT and I said.

Tippett pointed out 2 mistakes Drai did (I only caught the second one) and Kassian’s mistake as well.

The Drai mistake I didn’t know was that as F1 it was his job to go to the boards and not Nurse. If he does that Nurse doesn’t have to leave the front of the net.

So what you have is people blaming McDavid because “it looks like he’s not trying” or “he needs to play a better 200ft game” and I think that given his results on this shitty team that these statements are incredibly ignorant of what exactly he is achieving and many are assigning him blame that simply isn’t his blame to take because of the breakdowns in defensive coverage by the players who actually have those assignments.

Jon Willis wrote extensively about it recently: https://theathletic.com/1493217/2019/12/29/willis-the-oilers-have-actual-problems-connor-mcdavids-defensive-game-is-not-among-them/?source=shared-article

These tired tropes about the best players needing “to change their game for the team to win” make no sense.

McDavid is scoring 5v5 at a 16% clip better than the rest of the team.What do you want?20%?

There were even critiques about McDavid after the Rags game.He went 1-0 5v5, his PP got 3 goals and still there are people bitching and moaning. There was even bitching and moaning that the team was laughing after the game.

WTF?Can’t laugh after a win?“Hockey is too serious a business and all players must grimly think about what they have done wrong and not enjoy a wild win”. Give me a break.

Also,

All this being said, I haven’t withheld my critique of Drai’s defensive play, because it actually is bad and has been for over a month now.Not sure why, but its there.

Here’s McDavid with and without Draisaitl for the season:

5v5 GF%
97 & 29 together (32-34) 48.5%
97 without 29 (10-4) 71.4%
29 without 97 (4-12) 25%
Neither on the ice: 38.2%

Look at those results and tell me again how much better McDavid needs to be, how he has to mature as a player, how he has to try, how he has to make his game 200ft, how this team will never go forward until he is more selfless.

“Hey Connor, you’re dragging a defensive liability from 25% to 48% goal share, you’re getting 71% of the goals when he’s not with you and the rest of your team scored at a 38% clip, you wanna start giving a fuck about trophies other than the Art Ross”

It boggles the mind that people can pay attention to this team and think that.

If you made a list of 100 things EDM needs to improve, McDavid’s play without the puck doesn’t make the list.

Consider this:

Here is EDM’s 5v5 Goal share from 07/08 to today with the highest scoring 5v5 player off the ice and where that ranks among all NHL teams:

07/08 -44.7% (19th)
08/09 – 49.2% (12th)
09/10 – 37.8% (30th)
10/11 – 41.1% (29th)
11/12 – 42.4% (27th)
12/13 – 43.3% (23rd)
13/14– 38.7% (29th)
14/15 – 36.1% (28th)
15/16 – 40.0% (28th)
16/17 – 48.9% (12th)
17/18 – 41.1% (29th)
18/19 – 40.7% (30th)
19/20 – 35.9% (31st)

This team is the worst 5v5 Oiler team in regard to 5v5 goal share in the last 13 years when their best player is off the ice.It’s probably longer but the records don’t go back that far.

There are only 4 teams in the last 13 years to finish with a worse 5v5 Star Off GF%

2013 – FLA 34.1%
2014 – BUF 34.5%
2015 – BUF 34.4%
2017 – COL 32.5%

Year 5 of McDavid and here we are.

Do you know where those teams finished in the standings?

2013 – FLA 30th
2014 – BUF 30th
2015 – BUF 30th
2017 – COL 30th

Today EDM sits 8th in the West and in a playoff spot because of one person, Connor McDavid.

“Hey Atlas, if you didn’t skip your legs day last month maybe you could hold up the Moon too.Be better”

Man.

Excellent post!!

Bruce McCurdy

Woodguy v2.0,

I’d call that a great rant, Woodguy, except it has too many facts to qualify.

That last bit about the teams wth the lousy Star Off Gf% is sobering indeed. Shocking how weak is Edmonton’s supporting cast 5 years in to the McDavid era. Shocking.

N64

canada 6-0 over slovakia.

~ the most dangerous lead in hockey ~

Bruce McCurdy

dessert1111:
Looking at the West standings, I wonder how many teams are considering themselves sellers today. I think it might only be LA. Of course that’ll change over the next few weeks.

Out east, it looks like Ottawa, Detroit and NJ, with a handful for probably close to making that call.

New Jersey is by definition a seller after trading Hall for zero roster players.

Bruce McCurdy

Nit64:
canada 6-0 over slovakia.

~ the most dangerous lead in hockey ~

Have seen nothing but one-sided games this last while. World Junior is famous for them, this year’s Spengler Cup was less competitive than most, and the Oilers have played in three straight blowouts since Christmas. (Mind you, two of those blowouts were in the same game)

Side

Woodguy v2.0,

Glovjuice needs to read this post about 10 times over.

Woodguy v2.0

ashley,

Good analysis. It is for these reasons that my opinion on goalies diverges from Woodguy’s “mostly goalie” term for hockey. Just looking at the goalie performance is overly simplistic. A goalie’s performance is a highly complex interaction with team performance.

I want to be clear about my thoughts on this.

There is no question that team ability, defensive zone scheme, PK coaching etc. make a massive impact on a goalie’s SV%.

An example is Varlamov’s SV% jump after moving to a Trotz team.

Seeing Lehner take his .930 from a Trotz team and put up a .926 on a defensively meh CHI team shows us the other side of that coin though.

If it were possible to accurately account for team/players/coaching effect on SV% independently of the goalie then you could measure how good/bad a goalie performed given the team’s “baseline expected SV%”

Some sites try to do this with “Goals Saved Above Average” by comparing a goalie’s SV% vis a vis his expected goals against based on their model of expected goals.

Those expected goal models can measure goalie performance better than just straight SV%, but they’re still quite opaque as they don’t have player movement, puck movement, screens etc built into them.

The player and puck tracking data that is available to the teams today does account for more of those things so their “expected SV%/goals” models can be better and I expect that there are some really good goalie models being used in the NHL by some teams.

Here’s another way to think about it:

We have determined that a team’s play/structure would give the average NHL goalie an all situations SV% of .917

Their starter goalie achieves a .925, the backup a .899. Why don’t they have the same SV%?

Because goalie ability still exists.

STL got a .905 from Allen last year and a .884 from Johnson was were not going to make the playoffs.

Binnington comes in to the same team and puts up a .927 and they win the Cup.

That’s why hockey is Mostly Goalie.

You can run the best defensive system in the world, but if you have Gustavsson in net it won’t matter.

Now most NHL goalies are not Gustavsson, most are decent, but there is a ton of variance in those numbers (a lot of that has to do with rest imo)

Note: There is a good argument that STL strongly improved when they moved Bouwmeester to play with Parayko vs the toughs instead of Pietrangelo. This played to both Parayko’s and Pietrangelo’s strengths and helped the team’s results.

This changed happened around January 1st last year. If we look at Binnington and Allen’s results using Jan 1 as our split we see this:

Oct-Dec
Allen .900
Johnson .884

Jan-Apr
Allen .915
Binnington .930

We see “improved team play” but we also still see a disparity in ability.

That’s still a big difference that will significantly effect the team’s results.

This season STL is near the top of the standings most would assume Binnington is keeping on keeping on, but instead we see:

Allen .930
Binnington .920

Allen’s results are the best he’s had in a long, long time and the same player who was big reason that STL was going to miss the playoffs last year is a big big reason they are kicking ass this year.

When you account for coaching/players/structure I think that hockey is still Mostly Goalie in regards to team win/losses and that goalies are incredibly tough to predict from year to year (voodoo)

I understand you disagree with me on that point, but I still wanted to make my thoughts clear on the subject as I don’t just look at SV% and start with a narrative. I’m don’t write for Sportsnet. 🙂

OriginalPouzar

I see a new Oil Can was released this morning which mentions a Klefbom update – my plan is to listen to that later today in my pre-game re-fasted HIIT sprints – with that said, if there is a substantive update on Oscar……????

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0,

lmao, dunked on

dustrock

Woodguy v2.0,

Too right.

It’s been far too many years of this garbage and the MSM is mostly to blame.

The Oilers need someone like Frank Isola, who Dolan banned from MSG after Isola was too harshly criticizing the Knicks. Yet everything Isola was saying was totally justified.

It’s like there’s some delusion with management and coaches that the staff is more important than the roster.

Woodguy v2.0


@JonathanWillis

Oscar Klefbom is on the ice.

Wilde

Earlier this morning, I shared some data on Maksimov:

(abbreviated a bit)

Wilde: Also, re: Kirill Maksimov; I’d argue that the breakout game on November 21st that I posted about a few times was the real accelerating point of his season.

His Game Score per GP (5-on-5) is now up to where McLeod’s is, solidly in a lower-middle tier of the forwards.

However, in Maksimov’s opening part of the season, where I believe he was healthy scratched at one point, this was what the game log looked like in terms of GS:

0.06, 0.07, -0.09, -0.05, -0.15, 0.81, 0.11, 0.52, 0.47, 0.66, 0.05, 0.20

The average is 0.22.

Then, remarkably he had a game where he ended up with the highest GS of anyone any time in the season*, at 2.92 – along with some very well executed PK duties – and since then, the log looks like this:

2.92, 0.06, -0.44, 1.37, 1.18, 0.06, -0.04, 1.07, 0.21, 0.71, 1.22, 1.79, 0.82, 0.10, 0.96

For an average of 0.80 – for reference, Benson’s number for the season last year was 0.86.
If Maksimov can keep this up, and get close to Benson’s 18-19 number, hooo boy.

It’s a very timeline-shifting phenomenon, and I wonder what would be the anti-Holland way to pull this thing off.

I just wanted to add that his GF/CF percentage is now comfortably the highest among regular forwards:

Maksimov – 4.85%
Benson – 4.31%
Marody – 4.11%
Malone – 3.94%
Currie – 3.94%
Esposito – 3.92%
Cave – 3.79%
Gambardella – 3.64%
Peluso – 3.27%
Yamamoto – 3.13%
McLeod – 2.96%
Hebig – 2.18%

Benson and Marody have also made major gains, earlier their conversion rates had completely collapsed. This is obviously subject to variance and luck, but it’s still worth monitoring to peek beyond the boxcars. Of the 14 regular forwards last year, their on-ice rates varied from 2.94% (Polei) to 4.83% (Marody and Gambardella) so we’re mostly in range of my 78-game sample of 2018-19.

OriginalPouzar

BagofPucks: OP criticized other for presenting opinions without supportive metrics and then propped up his own flimsy opinions with statements like “I watch the games” and “think like a GM does.”

I personally don’t care if any individual poster agrees with my opinions. I believe people are entitled to different viewpoints and we’re all free to engage or ignore as we see fit. Unfortunately, OP absolutely cannot relent from antagonizing those he disagrees with, with passive aggressive insults as his primary stock and trade.

And that’s where we diverge, because I don’t view this community existing as a debate club forum for narcissists looking to score points. At its best, and that’s a frequent occurrence, it’s an egalitarian discussion with tolerance for dissenting viewpoints. The very fact that I’ve told OP on numerous occasions that’s he free to ignore my posts rather than insulting if he disagrees and he prefers to insult instead says everything one needs to know about this individual imo.

I don’t really want to bring this in to the new thread but I cannot let the above post go without response as it simply does not describe me or my style.

1) In response to a post that Yamamoto was called up over Benson because of inner-management politics, I posted the following:

“The call-up of Yamamoto over Benson is extremely justifiable based on team need – this has been discussed quite a bit over the last couple of days.

Sure, there could be theories that its based on something other than the what the roster needs but I see nothing to suggest its not baseless speculation.”

2) I receive a response from Jethro Tull that said, straight up “your opinion is wrong” and the Benson is the better player based on every metric.

In response to the above, I asked what those metrics were (which I was never told) with knowledge that there are many metrics that don’t favor Benson and also provided that I watch almost all Condor games suggesting that, yes, I do have some knowledge of the pros and cons as between the two players and suggesting that, yes, watching players play has important value that looking at metrics does not provide.

I attacked noone and provided my opinion based on watching players play.

frjohnk

Woodguy v2.0,

I love ranting Woodguy

OriginalPouzar

As per Jack Michaels:

Klefbom present and accounted for in today’s pregame skate. So, lineup at BUF:

Neal-McDavid-Kassian
RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald

Klefbom-Bear
Nurse-Russell
Lagesson-Larsson

OilClog

Woodguy v2.0: Mostly team.

The way to track this is to look at a player’s Relative Goal Share.This measure’s the player’s on ice 5v5 GF% vs when he’s off the ice.

Here is McDavid’s 5v5 GF% since he got here:

15/16 – 50.7%
16/17 – 62.1%
17/18 – 57.0%
18/19 – 50.4%
19/20 – 52.5%

So when looking at the decline since 16/17 its easy to assume that “McDavid has gotten worse”

When you look at his Relative 5v5 GF%, it tells a different story:

15/16 – 10.7%
16/17 – 13.2%
17/18 – 15.4%
18/19 – 9.9%
19/20 – 16.6%

Last year was his “off” year.This year is his best year in terms of putting up a 5v5 GF% that is “X%” better than the quality of his team.

That’s why when I read stuff like:

It makes my blood boil.

The goal the poster was referring to above was STL’s game winning goal on Dec 18th.McDavid was the closest Oiler to the goal scorer so he got a lot of the blame.

Thing is, he was never the 1st, 2nd or even 3rd Oiler who was supposed to cover the slot in that situation.

After everyone was raging about that goal and McDavid, LT noted this the next morning:


Everyone blames McDavid on that play, watch it again. He worked like a bugger to make it back, and couldn’t get there in time after O’Reilly’s impressive move behind the net that also left Ethan Bear out of the play. That’s a quality goal by St. Louis.

He was right.

I also noted in the comments:


Agreed that Drai’s flyby of slot was the the main culprit.


I can’t see how he thought he’d get a pass there, as there was no possession.

That’s exactly what “cheating for offense” looks like.

On the replay that showed the whole play from the Blue’s net point of view it was really clear that Drai was looping.

He was F1, Kassian F2 and McDavid F3.

Blaming F3 there makes no sense at all.

Then the next day Tippet fleshed that out in his post practice avail:


Re STL’s winning goal

Tippett talked about that today and said exactly what LT and I said.

Tippett pointed out 2 mistakes Drai did (I only caught the second one) and Kassian’s mistake as well.

The Drai mistake I didn’t know was that as F1 it was his job to go to the boards and not Nurse. If he does that Nurse doesn’t have to leave the front of the net.

So what you have is people blaming McDavid because “it looks like he’s not trying” or “he needs to play a better 200ft game” and I think that given his results on this shitty team that these statements are incredibly ignorant of what exactly he is achieving and many are assigning him blame that simply isn’t his blame to take because of the breakdowns in defensive coverage by the players who actually have those assignments.

Jon Willis wrote extensively about it recently: https://theathletic.com/1493217/2019/12/29/willis-the-oilers-have-actual-problems-connor-mcdavids-defensive-game-is-not-among-them/?source=shared-article

These tired tropes about the best players needing “to change their game for the team to win” make no sense.

McDavid is scoring 5v5 at a 16% clip better than the rest of the team.What do you want?20%?

There were even critiques about McDavid after the Rags game.He went 1-0 5v5, his PP got 3 goals and still there are people bitching and moaning. There was even bitching and moaning that the team was laughing after the game.

WTF?Can’t laugh after a win?“Hockey is too serious a business and all players must grimly think about what they have done wrong and not enjoy a wild win”. Give me a break.

Also,

All this being said, I haven’t withheld my critique of Drai’s defensive play, because it actually is bad and has been for over a month now.Not sure why, but its there.

Here’s McDavid with and without Draisaitl for the season:

5v5 GF%
97 & 29 together (32-34) 48.5%
97 without 29 (10-4) 71.4%
29 without 97 (4-12) 25%
Neither on the ice: 38.2%

Look at those results and tell me again how much better McDavid needs to be, how he has to mature as a player, how he has to try, how he has to make his game 200ft, how this team will never go forward until he is more selfless.

“Hey Connor, you’re dragging a defensive liability from 25% to 48% goal share, you’re getting 71% of the goals when he’s not with you and the rest of your team scored at a 38% clip, you wanna start giving a fuck about trophies other than the Art Ross”

It boggles the mind that people can pay attention to this team and think that.

If you made a list of 100 things EDM needs to improve, McDavid’s play without the puck doesn’t make the list.

Consider this:

Here is EDM’s 5v5 Goal share from 07/08 to today with the highest scoring 5v5 player off the ice and where that ranks among all NHL teams:

07/08 -44.7% (19th)
08/09 – 49.2% (12th)
09/10 – 37.8% (30th)
10/11 – 41.1% (29th)
11/12 – 42.4% (27th)
12/13 – 43.3% (23rd)
13/14– 38.7% (29th)
14/15 – 36.1% (28th)
15/16 – 40.0% (28th)
16/17 – 48.9% (12th)
17/18 – 41.1% (29th)
18/19 – 40.7% (30th)
19/20 – 35.9% (31st)

This team is the worst 5v5 Oiler team in regard to 5v5 goal share in the last 13 years when their best player is off the ice.It’s probably longer but the records don’t go back that far.

There are only 4 teams in the last 13 years to finish with a worse 5v5 Star Off GF%

2013 – FLA 34.1%
2014 – BUF 34.5%
2015 – BUF 34.4%
2017 – COL 32.5%

Year 5 of McDavid and here we are.

Do you know where those teams finished in the standings?

2013 – FLA 30th
2014 – BUF 30th
2015 – BUF 30th
2017 – COL 30th

Today EDM sits 8th in the West and in a playoff spot because of one person, Connor McDavid.

“Hey Atlas, if you didn’t skip your legs day last month maybe you could hold up the Moon too.Be better”

Man.

I remember this feeling, morning wood. I need a smoke

OriginalPouzar

Huge news that Klef seems fine.

I’m not happy that Nuge is up with Drai and would have preferred Tip staying with the “3 center set”.

Oh well.

OriginalPouzar

Klefbom looking sharp at the skate this morning:

https://twitter.com/GenePrincipe/status/1212775795124580358

Bling

I liked Yamamoto’s game on Tuesday and am encouraged by Wilde’s game score numbers and OP’s comments on his game in the AHL.

KY was also unlucky to not score on Lundqvist after that sweet dish by Drai. That puck was labeled top shelf and Henrik somehow got a glove on it.

It’s only one game, but he is already amongst the top 9 wingers on the team. .

Sierra

Woodguy v2.0,

McDavid’s GF% without 29 is (10-4) 71.4%? Wow, that is amazing….and a bit shocking!

Bling

OriginalPouzar:
As per Jack Michaels:

Klefbom present and accounted for in today’s pregame skate.So, lineup at BUF:

Neal-McDavid-Kassian
RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald

Klefbom-Bear
Nurse-Russell
Lagesson-Larsson

I love the look of that second line.

ArmchairGM

Woodguy v2.0: Today EDM sits 8th in the West and in a playoff spot because of one person, Connor McDavid.

“Hey Atlas, if you didn’t skip your legs day last month maybe you could hold up the Moon too. Be better”

Man.

Phenomenal post, Darcy. Absolutely outstanding. The world needs to see this.

tileguy

So far this morning,
Some posters bad,
Main stream media, bad,
Coaches bad,
Management bad.
Woodguy, good!
OP…….. in my pre-game re-fasted HIIT sprints

ArmchairGM

Bruce McCurdy: I’d call that a great rant, Woodguy, except it has too many facts to qualify.

Angry Woodguy is my favorite Woodguy.

Bling

Woodguy v2.0,

This is a good post.

Do you think 5v5 GF% with McDavid off will regress/improve this season?

Material Elvis

Woodguy v2.0,

Thank you Darcy.

Finally a well-worded retort to all of these assholes attempting to blame the lone amazing player on the team for the team’s poor play.

“He might be one of the best forwards of all time but dammit he needs to start checking harder or the Oilers will never win. Let’s ignore all of the shitty players on the team and focus our criticism on the one great player”.

Some Oilers fans are so fucking annoying with their narratives; glad there is an intelligent, well-balanced fan to counteract some of the bullshit being spewed on a daily basis.

jtblack

Woodguy v2.0: Mostly team.

The way to track this is to look at a player’s Relative Goal Share.This measure’s the player’s on ice 5v5 GF% vs when he’s off the ice.

Here is McDavid’s 5v5 GF% since he got here:

15/16 – 50.7%
16/17 – 62.1%
17/18 – 57.0%
18/19 – 50.4%
19/20 – 52.5%

So when looking at the decline since 16/17 its easy to assume that “McDavid has gotten worse”

When you look at his Relative 5v5 GF%, it tells a different story:

15/16 – 10.7%
16/17 – 13.2%
17/18 – 15.4%
18/19 – 9.9%
19/20 – 16.6%

Last year was his “off” year.This year is his best year in terms of putting up a 5v5 GF% that is “X%” better than the quality of his team.

That’s why when I read stuff like:

It makes my blood boil.

The goal the poster was referring to above was STL’s game winning goal on Dec 18th.McDavid was the closest Oiler to the goal scorer so he got a lot of the blame.

Thing is, he was never the 1st, 2nd or even 3rd Oiler who was supposed to cover the slot in that situation.

After everyone was raging about that goal and McDavid, LT noted this the next morning:


Everyone blames McDavid on that play, watch it again. He worked like a bugger to make it back, and couldn’t get there in time after O’Reilly’s impressive move behind the net that also left Ethan Bear out of the play. That’s a quality goal by St. Louis.

He was right.

I also noted in the comments:


Agreed that Drai’s flyby of slot was the the main culprit.


I can’t see how he thought he’d get a pass there, as there was no possession.

That’s exactly what “cheating for offense” looks like.

On the replay that showed the whole play from the Blue’s net point of view it was really clear that Drai was looping.

He was F1, Kassian F2 and McDavid F3.

Blaming F3 there makes no sense at all.

Then the next day Tippet fleshed that out in his post practice avail:


Re STL’s winning goal

Tippett talked about that today and said exactly what LT and I said.

Tippett pointed out 2 mistakes Drai did (I only caught the second one) and Kassian’s mistake as well.

The Drai mistake I didn’t know was that as F1 it was his job to go to the boards and not Nurse. If he does that Nurse doesn’t have to leave the front of the net.

So what you have is people blaming McDavid because “it looks like he’s not trying” or “he needs to play a better 200ft game” and I think that given his results on this shitty team that these statements are incredibly ignorant of what exactly he is achieving and many are assigning him blame that simply isn’t his blame to take because of the breakdowns in defensive coverage by the players who actually have those assignments.

Jon Willis wrote extensively about it recently: https://theathletic.com/1493217/2019/12/29/willis-the-oilers-have-actual-problems-connor-mcdavids-defensive-game-is-not-among-them/?source=shared-article

These tired tropes about the best players needing “to change their game for the team to win” make no sense.

McDavid is scoring 5v5 at a 16% clip better than the rest of the team.What do you want?20%?

There were even critiques about McDavid after the Rags game.He went 1-0 5v5, his PP got 3 goals and still there are people bitching and moaning. There was even bitching and moaning that the team was laughing after the game.

WTF?Can’t laugh after a win?“Hockey is too serious a business and all players must grimly think about what they have done wrong and not enjoy a wild win”. Give me a break.

Also,

All this being said, I haven’t withheld my critique of Drai’s defensive play, because it actually is bad and has been for over a month now.Not sure why, but its there.

Here’s McDavid with and without Draisaitl for the season:

5v5 GF%
97 & 29 together (32-34) 48.5%
97 without 29 (10-4) 71.4%
29 without 97 (4-12) 25%
Neither on the ice: 38.2%

Look at those results and tell me again how much better McDavid needs to be, how he has to mature as a player, how he has to try, how he has to make his game 200ft, how this team will never go forward until he is more selfless.

“Hey Connor, you’re dragging a defensive liability from 25% to 48% goal share, you’re getting 71% of the goals when he’s not with you and the rest of your team scored at a 38% clip, you wanna start giving a fuck about trophies other than the Art Ross”

It boggles the mind that people can pay attention to this team and think that.

If you made a list of 100 things EDM needs to improve, McDavid’s play without the puck doesn’t make the list.

Consider this:

Here is EDM’s 5v5 Goal share from 07/08 to today with the highest scoring 5v5 player off the ice and where that ranks among all NHL teams:

07/08 -44.7% (19th)
08/09 – 49.2% (12th)
09/10 – 37.8% (30th)
10/11 – 41.1% (29th)
11/12 – 42.4% (27th)
12/13 – 43.3% (23rd)
13/14– 38.7% (29th)
14/15 – 36.1% (28th)
15/16 – 40.0% (28th)
16/17 – 48.9% (12th)
17/18 – 41.1% (29th)
18/19 – 40.7% (30th)
19/20 – 35.9% (31st)

This team is the worst 5v5 Oiler team in regard to 5v5 goal share in the last 13 years when their best player is off the ice.It’s probably longer but the records don’t go back that far.

There are only 4 teams in the last 13 years to finish with a worse 5v5 Star Off GF%

2013 – FLA 34.1%
2014 – BUF 34.5%
2015 – BUF 34.4%
2017 – COL 32.5%

Year 5 of McDavid and here we are.

Do you know where those teams finished in the standings?

2013 – FLA 30th
2014 – BUF 30th
2015 – BUF 30th
2017 – COL 30th

Today EDM sits 8th in the West and in a playoff spot because of one person, Connor McDavid.

“Hey Atlas, if you didn’t skip your legs day last month maybe you could hold up the Moon too.Be better”

Man.

+1. Well said.

McDavid is Amazing and this just further illustrates how good he is; and how bad the surrounding team is.

Bag of Pucks

OriginalPouzar: I don’t really want to bring this in to the new thread but I cannot let the above post go without response as it simply does not describe me or my style.

1) In response to a post that Yamamoto was called up over Benson because of inner-management politics, I posted the following:

“The call-up of Yamamoto over Benson is extremely justifiable based on team need – this has been discussed quite a bit over the last couple of days.

Sure, there could be theories that its based on something other than the what the roster needs but I see nothing to suggest its not baseless speculation.”

2) I receive a response from Jethro Tull that said, straight up “your opinion is wrong” and the Benson is the better player based on every metric.

In response to the above, I asked what those metrics were (which I was never told) with knowledge that there are many metrics that don’t favor Benson and also provided that I watch almost all Condor games suggesting that, yes, I do have some knowledge of the pros and cons as between the two players and suggesting that, yes, watching players play has important value that looking at metrics does not provide.

I attacked noone and provided my opinion based on watching players play.

I 100% stand behind the content of that post and could provide literally dozens of posts confirming the behaviour described. I suspect however that the vast majority of posters would prefer to read about hockey instead…

If you truly believe this description doesn’t apply to you, OP then prove it with actions. Simply ignore my posts if you don’t agree with them rather than insisting on your God given right to be argumentative or antagonistic. Why is that too much to ask? It seems a small price to pay for equanimity.

oilersfan

Hi Woodguy

Using my eyes I can’t disagree with you although Connor did have two noticeably
Bad defensive efforts at home against Philadelphia and Dallas. He does seem to check less when winning by 2 goals.

That being said I think we can all agree that while Draisaitl has the ability to
Be a Bergeron like 2 way player like he was in October , he has been a Gagner from 2008 like defensive player since mid November .

What happened?

JimmyV1965

From WGs post, we can clearly see this team needs better forwards. I think it’s wishful thinking to hope this help is coming from the farm. Trades need to be made. So it’s up to Holland. We wait.

Ben

He’s having a tough year, but I trade pretty much anyone in the bottom 6 for Evan Rodrigues. Potential ready-made RH 3C solution. Does a Khaira swap do it?

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar:
Huge news that Klef seems fine.

I’m not happy that Nuge is up with Drai and would have preferred Tip staying with the “3 center set”.

Oh well.

I don’t particularly like it either, but Buffalo is not a deep team and this gives Edmonton the best chance of scoring if the Sabres focus on the McDavid line.

Material Elvis

oilersfan:
Hi Woodguy

Using my eyes I can’t disagree with you although Connor did have two noticeably
Bad defensive efforts at home against Philadelphia and Dallas. He does seem to check less when winning by 2 goals.

That being said I think we can all agree that while Draisaitl has the ability to
Be a Bergeron like 2 way player like he was in October , he has been a Gagner from 2008 like defensive player since mid November .

What happened?

He was overplayed early on. Some nights playing 25+ minutes, which is crazy. Now he is gassed and his performance has cratered. Hopefully the coaching staff learns from this and doesn’t make that same mistake next fall.

BONE207

Woodguy:
Year 5 of McDavid and here we are.

Do you know where those teams finished in the standings?

2013 – FLA 30th
2014 – BUF 30th
2015 – BUF 30th
2017 – COL 30th

Today EDM sits 8th in the West and in a playoff spot because of one person, Connor McDavid.

“Hey Atlas, if you didn’t skip your legs day last month maybe you could hold up the Moon too. Be better”

Man.


I get actual wood when you write like this.
As someone who watches the games but leaves the analytics to the pros, we all get out of joint when our super heroes look bad & are piled upon. With great power comes great responsibility but we can take that too far as you say, instead of looking at other team dynamics. This however, leads us back to focusing on the bottom 6 again. This fan base is damaged from the DoD x2 I believe. We lash out at everyone. Waiting for someone, anyone to fix this mess is fraying nerves. Thanks for refocusing the Lowetidians.

flea

I like McDavid with Kassian and Neal. I also think the bottom 6 is coming on a little of late.

I feel this season really hinges on some of those players finding chemistry and getting going.

Tippet has done a good job with them so far in my opinion. The bottom 6 is pretty much entirely new players. Takes time to build chemistry. I don’t think 1/2 a season is unreasonable.

Sink or swim time for this years Oilers.

dustrock

Watched Lavoie again. Not convinced he has the greatest hands but he was playing smart with somewhat limited minutes and PP2.

I can see that there will be lots of “he’s lazy” narrative because unlike some players, he doesn’t always look like he’s giving the proverbial 110% out there but I don’t see him making many mistakes and he’s great along the boards on the forecheck.

Reminds me a bit of Jeff Carter but I don’t think he has Carter’s shot.

On my extremely limited observations from WJHC this year, I don’t see top line winger.

However, a strong and fast RW could do very well with McDavid.

We wait.

jtblack

Woodguy v2.0,

“Here is EDM’s 5v5 Goal share from 07/08 to today with the highest scoring 5v5 player off the ice and where that ranks among all NHL teams:

07/08 -44.7% (19th)
08/09 – 49.2% (12th)
09/10 – 37.8% (30th)
10/11 – 41.1% (29th)
11/12 – 42.4% (27th)
12/13 – 43.3% (23rd)
13/14 – 38.7% (29th)
14/15 – 36.1% (28th)
15/16 – 40.0% (28th)
16/17 – 48.9% (12th)
17/18 – 41.1% (29th)
18/19 – 40.7% (30th)
19/20 – 35.9% (31st)”

Something to be said for Consistency.

Looks like the magic number is around 47%+

OriginalPouzar

Smith starts – not overly surprised by that.

There has been some speculation that Koski tweaked something last game.

No confidence in Smith, obviously, however, he does run hot and cold and I do think he will get hot again at some point this year.

Can it start tonight?

Woodguy v2.0

19/20 – 35.9% (31st)

This was an error. I have edited the original post.

There is one team with a worse Star Off 5v5 GF%

DET’s leading 5v5 player is Tyler Bertuzzi. He has 20 5v5 points.

DET’s GF% when he is on is 47.3%
DET’s GF% when he is off is 29.0% (!!!!)

Wow.

I know lots is said about Holland spending assets to “chase the playoffs” while Ilitch was alive, but holy crap did he ever assemble an awful team.

SkatinginSand

Woodguy v2.0,

You know what makes my blood boil? People like you taking quotes out of context and then adding untrue narrative. If you bothered to look at McDavid on the backcheck, he did not put effort into it. I did not absolve Draisaitl of blame, but said that McDavid could have helped to fix the problem.

So, in your own words, fuck off.

norm_klassen

If RNH runs hot for a while that could help the team. Smith can rebound and run hot in stretches then lose big for stretches so that’s up In the air. Just my observation

Ben

SkatinginSand:
SKATINGINSANDsays:

Woodguy v2.0,

People like you

This is nice. People like you, too!

OriginalPouzar

Willis (who is travelling with the team on this trip) says that Koski has been a bit under the weather lately and playing through it – that played in to the decision to start Smith tonight.

knighttown

Woodguy v2.0: Mostly team.

The way to track this is to look at a player’s Relative Goal Share.This measure’s the player’s on ice 5v5 GF% vs when he’s off the ice.

Here is McDavid’s 5v5 GF% since he got here:

15/16 – 50.7%
16/17 – 62.1%
17/18 – 57.0%
18/19 – 50.4%
19/20 – 52.5%

So when looking at the decline since 16/17 its easy to assume that “McDavid has gotten worse”

When you look at his Relative 5v5 GF%, it tells a different story:

15/16 – 10.7%
16/17 – 13.2%
17/18 – 15.4%
18/19 – 9.9%
19/20 – 16.6%

Last year was his “off” year.This year is his best year in terms of putting up a 5v5 GF% that is “X%” better than the quality of his team.

That’s why when I read stuff like:

It makes my blood boil.

The goal the poster was referring to above was STL’s game winning goal on Dec 18th.McDavid was the closest Oiler to the goal scorer so he got a lot of the blame.

Thing is, he was never the 1st, 2nd or even 3rd Oiler who was supposed to cover the slot in that situation.

After everyone was raging about that goal and McDavid, LT noted this the next morning:


Everyone blames McDavid on that play, watch it again. He worked like a bugger to make it back, and couldn’t get there in time after O’Reilly’s impressive move behind the net that also left Ethan Bear out of the play. That’s a quality goal by St. Louis.

He was right.

I also noted in the comments:


Agreed that Drai’s flyby of slot was the the main culprit.


I can’t see how he thought he’d get a pass there, as there was no possession.

That’s exactly what “cheating for offense” looks like.

On the replay that showed the whole play from the Blue’s net point of view it was really clear that Drai was looping.

He was F1, Kassian F2 and McDavid F3.

Blaming F3 there makes no sense at all.

Then the next day Tippet fleshed that out in his post practice avail:


Re STL’s winning goal

Tippett talked about that today and said exactly what LT and I said.

Tippett pointed out 2 mistakes Drai did (I only caught the second one) and Kassian’s mistake as well.

The Drai mistake I didn’t know was that as F1 it was his job to go to the boards and not Nurse. If he does that Nurse doesn’t have to leave the front of the net.

So what you have is people blaming McDavid because “it looks like he’s not trying” or “he needs to play a better 200ft game” and I think that given his results on this shitty team that these statements are incredibly ignorant of what exactly he is achieving and many are assigning him blame that simply isn’t his blame to take because of the breakdowns in defensive coverage by the players who actually have those assignments.

Jon Willis wrote extensively about it recently: https://theathletic.com/1493217/2019/12/29/willis-the-oilers-have-actual-problems-connor-mcdavids-defensive-game-is-not-among-them/?source=shared-article

These tired tropes about the best players needing “to change their game for the team to win” make no sense.

McDavid is scoring 5v5 at a 16% clip better than the rest of the team.What do you want?20%?

There were even critiques about McDavid after the Rags game.He went 1-0 5v5, his PP got 3 goals and still there are people bitching and moaning. There was even bitching and moaning that the team was laughing after the game.

WTF?Can’t laugh after a win?“Hockey is too serious a business and all players must grimly think about what they have done wrong and not enjoy a wild win”. Give me a break.

Also,

All this being said, I haven’t withheld my critique of Drai’s defensive play, because it actually is bad and has been for over a month now.Not sure why, but its there.

Here’s McDavid with and without Draisaitl for the season:

5v5 GF%
97 & 29 together (32-34) 48.5%
97 without 29 (10-4) 71.4%
29 without 97 (4-12) 25%
Neither on the ice: 38.2%

Look at those results and tell me again how much better McDavid needs to be, how he has to mature as a player, how he has to try, how he has to make his game 200ft, how this team will never go forward until he is more selfless.

“Hey Connor, you’re dragging a defensive liability from 25% to 48% goal share, you’re getting 71% of the goals when he’s not with you and the rest of your team scored at a 38% clip, you wanna start giving a fuck about trophies other than the Art Ross”

It boggles the mind that people can pay attention to this team and think that.

If you made a list of 100 things EDM needs to improve, McDavid’s play without the puck doesn’t make the list.

Consider this:

Here is EDM’s 5v5 Goal share from 07/08 to today with the highest scoring 5v5 player off the ice and where that ranks among all NHL teams:

07/08 -44.7% (19th)
08/09 – 49.2% (12th)
09/10 – 37.8% (30th)
10/11 – 41.1% (29th)
11/12 – 42.4% (27th)
12/13 – 43.3% (23rd)
13/14– 38.7% (29th)
14/15 – 36.1% (28th)
15/16 – 40.0% (28th)
16/17 – 48.9% (12th)
17/18 – 41.1% (29th)
18/19 – 40.7% (30th)
19/20 – 35.9% (31st)

This team is the worst 5v5 Oiler team in regard to 5v5 goal share in the last 13 years when their best player is off the ice.It’s probably longer but the records don’t go back that far.

There are only 4 teams in the last 13 years to finish with a worse 5v5 Star Off GF%

2013 – FLA 34.1%
2014 – BUF 34.5%
2015 – BUF 34.4%
2017 – COL 32.5%

Year 5 of McDavid and here we are.

Do you know where those teams finished in the standings?

2013 – FLA 30th
2014 – BUF 30th
2015 – BUF 30th
2017 – COL 30th

Today EDM sits 8th in the West and in a playoff spot because of one person, Connor McDavid.

“Hey Atlas, if you didn’t skip your legs day last month maybe you could hold up the Moon too.Be better”

Man.

Fucking fantastic.

I can live with some fans who are learning about analytics feeling this way (if they are willing to learn) but why can’t the local media figure this out?

Wilde

Woodguy v2.0:
I know lots is said about Holland spending assets to “chase the playoffs” while Ilitch was alive, but holy crap did he ever assemble an awful team.

I’ve been itching to write something definitive on this for awhile.

He did that /poorly/.

The thing people are saying he did, he did poorly. The conditions people are saying were put on him, he did poorly in those conditions.

Is the backwash of the ownership’s effects in Detroit worse than the current ownership effect in Ottawa?
It was just an altered timeline. He was forced to spend, okay, where did the smart money go in those summers?

JimmyV1965

Woodguy v2.0:
19/20 – 35.9% (31st)

This was an error.I have edited the original post.

There is one team with a worse Star Off 5v5 GF%

DET’s leading 5v5 player is Tyler Bertuzzi.He has 20 5v5 points.

DET’s GF% when he is on is 47.3%
DET’s GF% when he is off is 29.0% (!!!!)

Wow.

I know lots is said about Holland spending assets to “chase the playoffs” while Ilitch was alive, but holy crap did he ever assemble an awful team.

Holland’s penchant for over paying aging free agents is very disconcerting. I do think he left Stevie Y with some nice pieces to work with. The 2018 draft was a homerun. The Wings defence has to be the worst in the league and it’s likely not close.