Much of what I write here and at The Athletic is seasonal. I learned early on that if you’re going to chronicle a team, and play along at home, there’s a need to address things in a timely way. We’ll talk about the draft and the 50-man leading up to summer, and of course reasonable expectations arrive in August-September. October through April is the season, games and the morning after games. I learned this on the fly, when starting the blog and trying to stay topical.
Farm Workers, a look at the minor league and the players housed there, came from a different place. Brian Conacher, former NHL player, wrote a fantastic book called Hockey in Canada: The Way it Is. Conacher was a very smart fellow and he saw things in a unique way. Brilliant book and a brilliant description of the minor leagues of the 1960’s. Anyway. What you read today is a direct result of the Conacher book.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
- New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect pipeline could deliver below-average group in 2020-21
- Jonathan Willis: Several factors led to Oilers’ Zack Kassian’s inevitable hearing with NHL Player Safety
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian calls Matthew Tkachuk a ‘p****,’ says he’d go after him again despite Oilers’ loss
- Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Mike Smith stars in Oilers victory, but others’ struggles could prompt changes
- Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
- Minnia Feng: Zamboni Ursula: What if Oilers fans could change something in the team’s past?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: ‘That’s the nicest goal I’ve ever seen’: Connor McDavid’s teammates amazed by his latest effort
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers notebook: James Neal’s resurgence, Matt Benning’s injury and the Tyler Benson recall temptation
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhands are pushing hard for NHL jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
- Lowetide: Ken Holland, the Oilers amateur procurement department and the 2020 draft
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
FUTURE NHLERS (FARM WORKERS PREDICTION
It’s been a fun ride over many years, choosing ‘farm workers’ to emerge as NHL players and play 100 or more NHL games. Here are my picks by season, and NHL games played (players listed only once, in the first season I named them).
- 2009-10: Devan Dubnyk (513).
- 2010-11: Jeff Petry (656), Linus Omark (79), and Teemu Hartikainen (52).
- 2011-12: Magnus Paajarvi (467) and Tyler Pitlick (225).
- 2012-13: Anton Lander (215) and Martin Marincin (216).
- 2013-14: Oscar Klefbom (364) and Mark Arcobello (139).
- 2014-15: Iiro Pakarinen (134), Jordan Oesterle (191).
- 2015-16: Griffin Reinhart (37), Jujhar Khaira (196) and Anton Slepyshev (102).
- 2016-17: Jesse Puljujarvi (139) and Laurent Brossoit (62).
- 2017-18: Ethan Bear (66), Ty Rattie (99)
- 2018-19: Caleb Jones (40), Kailer Yamamoto (33), Cooper Marody (6), Tyler Benson.
Men who are over 30 who come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves as NHL players is a thing of the past.
Hello, Sam Gagner! He turned 30 in August, started the season in Bakersfield (four games) and is 23, 1-7-8. Gagner clearly loves playing in the big leagues, he has made about $35 million in his career (PuckPedia) so this is about passion. He’s unusual in that he’s now a role player and willing to play that part despite having earned independence long ago. Brad Malone and Anthony Peluso are also 30 in Bakersfield. Gagner is highly unusual in today’s game.
If a prospect can establish himself as an AHL regular at age 20, it bodes well for an NHL career but does not guarantee it.
A strong group this year, Evan Bouchard (who was 19 when the season started) is finding his way and enjoying a successful (36, 7-16-23) minor league campaign. Ryan McLeod (36, 3-10-13) is a burner who could be more than a year away but his offense is better than I estimated for the rookie campaign. Kirill Maksimov (33, 3-7-10) and Dmitri Samorukov (29, 1-5-6) are also established regulars at the midway point of their rookie seasons. That’s four legit prospects in the AHL at 20.
Pretty much everyone in the AHL past 21 has some issues.
Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson lead the way here, along with young defenseman William Lagesson. All three look bona fide and NHL-ready, but the rule applies. Each man has issues: Yamamoto (injury worries), Benson (speed) and Lagesson (skills duplicated by men with wider range of skills) will need to overcome at least one more hurdle. Stuart Skinner and Dylan Wells are also in this area, but goalies take longer (usually) so no surprise. Cooper Marody seems to have stepped back from his impressive 2018-19 season due to injury, and Cam Hebig is off the pace.
If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by age 22, you are in trouble. The players who will graduate to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry deal.
This is an important category because there are still good players here but not everyone makes it. Players who were in this spot recently: Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev, Griffin Reinhart, Jordan Oesterle, Iiro Pakarinen, Laurent Brossoit, Josh Currie, Joe Gambardella and Patrick Russell.
Caleb Jones is 22, but he’s in the NHL and has signed a new (very friendly) contract, so I think it’s fair to say he was never in this category. William Lagesson also qualifies for this category, but part of his problem is not of his making: The depth chart is conspiring against him. Cooper Marody is losing this season to injury and this should be the year where he’s establishing himself as an NHL option. Josh Currie and Joel Persson are at the older end of this list.
Exceptions are college men. Playing four college seasons means turning pro at 22, or later.
This is an important category because a player who arrives in pro out of college has a smaller window of opportunity. Cooper Marody was an AHL rookie at 21 and performed admirably, that’s the kind of player who usually fast tracks. The current injury issues leave his career a little uneasy. Shane Starrett is in almost exactly the same spot, I think he might have seen NHL action this year if he’d been healthy. Starrett’s strong performance a year ago was key to Bakersfield’s success. Joe Gambardella is in the window right now but Patrick Russell (another college man) ate his lunch. Logan Day is a fine prospect, but is blocked by men like Evan Bouchard and Joel Persson.
A large group of players on the current Bakersfield Condors could be described as ‘tweeners’.
This has always been the case, even when the numbers (Rob Schremp) imply otherwise. Rob Schremp was a tweener, he scored 53 points in 69 AHL games at age 20. Is Tyler Benson a tweener? I don’t believe he is, but will tell you I had the same opinion of Jani Rita, Marc Pouliot and Teemu Hartikainen. Sometimes a tweener makes it, but mostly they become Anton Lander or Ty Rattie.
If we make a list of minor league rfa’s each summer, we can probably pick the cuts and be fairly close.
This never changes. Last year I picked Gambardella, Russell and Starrett as keepers, and suggested Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin and Robin Norell would be swept away. Players make themselves known during entry deals.
This year’s list is Nolan Vesey, Ryan Mantha, Cam Hebig, Joel Persson, Logan Day and Shane Starrett. Mantha is a heartbreaking case, looks like his career ended in what was a freak injury. Vesey and Hebig are also easy calls, neither man was able to establish himself as a strong option for the AHL coach. Joel Persson has shown enough to get a contract, the player may feel he’d like to move on. Same with Logan Day, although he’s even farther down the depth chart. Shane Starrett is a sticky wicket because of injury and Olivier Rodrigue about to turn pro. I’ll suggest Persson, Day and Starrett get new deals.
Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera used the AHL as a stepping stone to an NHL career. They are the stars in this study.
AHL grads don’t arrive in the NHL and apply for the scoring role on McDavid’s line (or Nuge, or Leon), but rather land on a support line and try to carve out a role. That’s the deal. That’s one reason why a player like Kailer Yamamoto was never destined (in my opinion) to play 100 AHL games (he has played in 50). I have the same opinion of Evan Bouchard.
The obvious Pisani on the current Condors is Tyler Benson, who is likely to fill a top-9 role on the Oilers should he make it with the big club. I would guess that process begins soon. I also think Ryan McLeod and Kirill Maksimov will be candidates.
Pure offensive players can succeed after prolonged AHL time but it’s rarely with their drafting team.
This is a rule I included specifically because of Marty Reasoner. A scorer in college, he transformed his game into a two-way role and served as mentor to a generation of Oilers wingers. Marc Pouliot had the same opportunity but did not do it. That might be Cooper Marody’s route to the NHL but we’re miles from knowing.
The future NHL players are
The rule is I can’t name a player once I’ve named him, so the group above from last year (Jones, Yamamoto, Marody and Benson) are unavailable to me. A reminder, I’m looking for players who will spend 100+ games in the NHL, that’s the line in the sand.
This year I’ll pick Evan Bouchard and William Lagesson. Bouchard is developing on the farm (I’ll be talking to Ryan Holt, Bakersfield’s PBP man, about him this morning) and already has NHL calibre offensive instincts. Lagesson is more of a shutdown type, but very valuable in his own way. I’m very satisfied with both selections.
Back to Conacher to close. He made many strong arguments in the book (and predicted much of what has happened since) but the one that has importance here is what he wrote about the Maple Leafs minor league team (Rochester Americans) of 65-66:
As in other areas of modern society, hockey teams too have their generation gaps. This situation stood out on the Rochester team in 1965 which consisted of three groups: the veterans (had all resigned themselves to making the best of their minor league hockey careers), the young ones (who have stars in their eyes and are in the AHL for just a little time, or so they think) and the group somewhere in between (these players kept hoping that a break would come their way and they might get their chance in the “big tent”).
The Oilers have used a little from each category this season, from older player Sam Gagner to young players like Kailer Yamamoto, and the in betweens represented by Patrick Russell and Joel Persson. The Condors are flourishing, Jay Woodcroft is an outstanding development coach.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy show today, starting at 10 this morning TSN1260. Ryan Holt will talk Condors at 10:20, Frank Seravalli will discuss the strange Vegas happenings at 11, and we have some more irons in the fire as well. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
I was surprised how similar the number were too.
And yes, definitely Marincin would have benefited from NHL players as teammates. Probably more PP time than Lagesson got last year as well.
I’d forgotten about Cheechoo lol.
Didnt realize they were that close. Only consideration is that OKC was STACKED that year, at least at forward. That was the lockout year so they got injected with Hall, Ebs, Nuge, Schultz. Also had ultimate tweener Arcobello, Rajala and even fricking Cheechoo haha.
Lagesson has not been blessed with that talent unfortunately.
4 years ago, Klefbom had as little experience as Bear and was signed for 8 years at just over $4 million AAV.
Rasmus Anderssen will have double the NHL games, about 150, and he was just signed for 6 x $4.5 million and he is a #5D mostly, not top four and playing most of his time against the toughest competition like Bear.
Bear is not signing for less than $4 million on a long term contract.
I would note that Marincin is just 4 years older than Lagesson (both Feb. birthdays).
Marincin departed Edmonton just after his 23rd birthday (same age as Lagesson was last summer) and had already played 85 NHL games. He’d played 124 games by his 24th birthday. Lagesson will be 24 in a month and is at 2 games.
Playing more NHL games doesn’t necessarily mean Marincin was better, but I’d definitely hesitate to say that Lagesson is ahead at an equivalent age/stage.
One more:
Marincin in OKC in his age 20/21 season: 69-7-23-30 +20
Lagesson in Bak in his age 22/23 season: 67-8-19-27 +25
Almost eerie aside from the age difference.
Hehe
Also, hope you’re right about the Bear contract!
That’s not entirely accurate.
I’ve read that proposal at the My NHL trade rumors site a few months ago.
Okay, it was mid December.
https://mynhltraderumors.com/nhl-rumors-toronto-maple-leafs-edmonton-oilers-and-the-vegas-golden-knights/2019/12/16/
I am confident that Holland will get Bear to sign a very reasonable contract.
The Jones contract could have gone to £1.25m a year, maybe more. Smart move by Jones as that contract makes it more likely he gets NHL games over the next two years.
Bears team could push for 4+ but he doesn’t have the track record or the toolkit to get locked up for that kind of money. His upside is limited as he’s already a very smart player that does the little things well. He’s a little small and an average skater, and he isn’t changing those things, so I think he’s fairly close to his ceiling. Unlike a Broberg who has all the tools and the risk is around IQ, vision, NHL speed of play, physicality etc.
Most will disagree, but I think it’s possible to get him locked up at 2×2.5 or 6×3.33
Agree. We finally have just a bit of RHD depth and trading off a good chunk of it for a RW makes no sense.
Barrie’s contract expires at the end of this year. They traded possibly their best contract for Kerfoot and one year of Barrie. The trade was laughable.
duct tape and foil,
He is a left-handed shot, so one presumes playing the other side won’t be too much of a stretch.
Benning hasn’t played a game yet, so I agree with one of your earlier points… the price is too high in the context of our roster.
I think trading Larsson before the end of the season is a very risky proposition.
They did trade a good contract and got TWO good contracts in return.
How is RW a major gap?
Kass – 13 g
Yamo – 2 g (0.29 gpg) / Kapanen – 10 g (0.21 gpg)
Chiasson – 6 g
Archibald – 5 g
I suppose that Kapanen replaces Yamo – sure he’s better – but the kid seems to be doing OK and his gpg is actually higher
In contrast – the RHD without Larsson would be: Bear / Benning / Jones. Very very weak, and even worse, there is almost no depth behind it. Can’t believe you would set out to create that intentionally.
You could likely get Martinez or Cole for a second round pick.
I would imagine Calgary would like Kapanen so the other two could be in play.
Larsson play less per game than Bear at 5 on 5, 4 on 5 and 5 on 4 and all the numbers (well, PK and 5 on 5) see a bigger gap in the last 10 games as Larsson’s PK time has been reduced.
I’m not sure that Larsson is the current 1RD on this team.
I agree that his absence would leave a major gap but the trade proposed fills a major gap – and with a young, not yet at his prime years player on a solid contract with some more term and an RFA at the end – pretty much the opposite of Larsson in that regards.
A Sportsnet article this morning posited that a trade of Kapanen + Bracco could be available for the right defenseman. The article mentioned Brodie, Hamonic, Martinez and Cole as possible targets.
Kapanen is a nice young RW who is fast, can PK and score at a nice 2nd line level. Good player, but not good enough to trade your 1RD for in return unless you have a ton of depth underneath. We don’t and a guy like Larsson is worth way more in our context than on a team with more veteran depth. Losing Larsson hurts more than getting Kapanen given that both of our top 6 RW (Kass and Neal) have scored more goals than him this season. Basically you are opening up a gapping hole on defense to fix hole that does not exist when you have Kass, Neal, Yamo and Chiasson at RW this season. Our LW is way way weaker than our right side which is why I would prefer to try get a guy like Lehkonen instead.
Kapanen for JP+ makes more sense for the Leafs given their need for cheap, young NHL-ready talent. But not until the off-season. and maybe never.
I was the one that proposed it and am getting called out on the proposal.
He traded Kadri for Barrie. The contract gap was an ocean.
The Kadri trade was for cap space and the Avalanche retained on Barrie and also sent Kerfoot toToronto.
If the Oilers retain half on Larsson and also send Benson to Toronto, you might get Kapanen.
I didn’t say the Leafs would trade Kappanen for Larsson. I just illustrated that the Leafs have shown they are willing to trade a good contract. I think you’re way overrating Kappanen though.
Larsson isn’t so good that you automatically dismiss any trade. If it makes sense, you do it.
Yet they traded Kadri. That was an awful deal.
Kapanen is signed for two more years and then is an RFA. Larsson is signed for one more year and then is a UFA.
It is ludicrous to suggest that Larsson can return a forward as good as Kapanen if their contracts were equivalent.
When you consider their contracts the gap in value between them is as big as the universe.
There is no scenario in which the Leafs would trade Kapanen to the Leafs for Larsson. It is inconceivable that Dubas would make that kind of move.
That would be the perfect kind of deal. Reduces risk greatly.
LMHF#1,
How Walkom rose through the reffing ranks so quickly is completely beyond me. He was horrible.
As I’ve said, this move isn’t ideal and, in isolation, it worsens the defensive group and the defensive depth.
At the same time, it trades from a general position of strength (at least depth) via disposition of a declining asset with only one year left to UFA, in exchange for filling a position of need with little organizational depth with a value contract for 2 more years for a player that will still be RFA after – a player that can play multiple rolls.
Far from ideal but sensibile.
At least there are potential NHL ready d-men for right side next year – multiple names like Bouchard and maybe even Berglund plus the incumbents. Aside from Benson, there is nothing close in the top 6.
Lame OT between flames and leafs – can’t believe I watched that – I feel bad with myself.
Chucky wins it in the SO.
100%.
Also, the Leafs could not possibly have had 3 worse shootout attempts.
Leafs tied it up and they are going to OT.
flames get a point but at least they won’t get a regulation win and, hopefully, only get one.
ANA is up 3-1 on NSH, a great and unexpected result, so far.
Vegas up 2-0 on Ottawa, no surprise there
CGY (+140) at TOR (-160) – TOR can score, but not defend. Take the over 6.5 at -110. I got TOR winning 6-4.
I’m thinking of changing my screen name to “Magic 8 Ball”
As per LeBrub, Colin Campbell and George Parros had phone calls with both Ken Holland and Brad Treliving – Parros will also be at the game on the 29th.
As I’ve said, I don’t expect anything out of the ordinary at the game and that is a good thing – Oiler need to focus 100% on the win and the two points. Of course, take every chance to get a bang in but that should be the case in any event.
Win the damn games.
Flames get at least one point.
At least there is some thoroughly mediocre coaching going on as Quenneville continues to own McLellan
Also. Go Dementor Go!
Ha. How will I live with myself?
I like your target (Kapanen) as a youngish, fast winger who can PK. But he’s not all that cheap ($3.2 million) and a RW. Sure it addresses some holes at forward (wing, PK, speed) but it opens up an even bigger and harder one to fill one at RHD.
Lehkonen in MTL might be a better target as he’s a LW, just as good on the PK, and $1 million cheaper. Would JP and Laggesson get you Lehkonen? Not sure.
Go Leafs! (That feels so wrong)
Unfortunately what you won’t hear from other teams is buy, buy, buy.
I’m sure there are other teams that could use him but don’t see him returning a prime young player.
So who are you filling the Larrson hole with?
Leafs doing us no favours through 2
I managed to escape the frozen tundra here for a period of time when living in the US.
I used to watch Jim Cramer for entertainment when I lived in the States.
When I think of Larsson’s precipitous decline, I hear Cramer screaming, “sell sell sell.”
Bear would jump at this contract it would be fair for both sides.
Toronto needs young cost controlled players even more than the Oilers.
Don’t think Kapanen is a realistic target.
In the post he was replying to, the suggestion wasn’t to trade Larsson for pure cap space, the suggestion was for a targeted player with a team with a need for an Adam Larsson – a young, top 6 winger with skill and huge speed that is also a plus PK guy that is signed for 2 more years @ $3.2M and then still an RFA.
That trade vastly reduces the need to find another top 6 winger externally and filling that hole (plus PK) for $3.2M is of immense value.
This is exactly why I think Bear doesn’t have the leverage to get a $4+M contract. I think 5 x $3M is about right. It’s a significant chunk of change yet it shields the Oilers from the risk attached to giving 5 years of term to a player with 1 year of track record.
I don’t want to trade Larsson, I’m one if his bigger fans and know that he will be even better in the playoffs.
I’ve made subsequent posts in this thread about it hurting the performance and depth of the defence and it turning super young.
At the same time, the preface is cap related – if a trade for Kapanen can be made (and the Leafs may even add), there is a top 6 winger with speed and high PK accument added for $3.2M for two more years and then an RFA. Can a better value deal be found otherwise?
It’s also predicated on signing Bear for term vs. a bridge, which most seem inclined for.
Paying Nurse, Bear for term (over $4M) and finding a top 6 winger externally seems highly unlikely even if the team can get rid of Russell for close to $4M in cap. Larsson may be an “expendable” expense.
I’m not saying its perfect but an option that would have to be considered if that type of trade is out there.
I’d prefer to give Benning and a prospect but I don’t think that gets that type of deal done.
But he’s smart!! Or at least went to an Ivy League school!!!!! !!!!! !!!!!!
Being smart or highly educated means nothing. Everything is in successful actions completed in real time.
Love this post and I agree 100%.
Larrson will be making approximately 2 million more than Benning next year.
Is that extra cap space worth the risk of trading your only proven top 4 RD.
If this team hopes to compete for the playoffs next year I would say no.
Russell for similar forward (equally over-paid but decent player) is your last resort. His base salary next year is only $1.5 million after July 1 and there should be takers for free or little cap in return from a budget team. WPG makes sense as they will probably have the cap to spare, need dmen, and Kulikov is coming off the books. They could send us back Copp or Lowrey if they want to lose some salary. Not interested in Perreault given his age, declining performance and much higher salary.
Who knows…..Russell may even pack it in and retire after he receives his bonus in the summer. Guess it depends on his desire to keep going and whether the wear and tear is worth the last $1.5 million of his contract. He’s probably out of the league or a camp invite only the summer after.
That was a joke. I used to publish a post and there’d be two comments before I could turn around. It was a thing for a time. In my old age, I always assume everyone can read my mind and has been here since the beginning.
JimmyV1965,
Bear actually has pretty good top speed. He was the fourth fastest skater at the recent Oilers skill competition and beat out the likes of Kassian and Jones.
With virtually no D signed next year the Leafs are much more likely to find free agents rather than target high end young players for vets on expiring contracts. And I can’t imagine they would want to extend Larsson.
I don’t understand the desire to trade Larsson and run a RHD of Bear, Benning and Bourchard. That trio may be politely described as small, defensively suspect, and likely overwhelmed. One injury has a 3rd pair dman or rookie is in your top pair. Larsson is fine on the top pair with Klef and he would be really good with Jones if the extra need for offense (Klef/Bouch pair) arises in game. Given his modest offense he is not going to cost a fortune to resign and I hope he stays after next year.
Benning is the guy whose slot (3rd pair RHD) may be filled by Bouch next year and I would be looking to trade in the off-season. Hopefully he can be healthy the rest of the season.
The Athletic has our playoff chances at a coin flip
And it’s mid January
Woot