It’s a small item, no one will notice. At this point in January, I write the first trade deadline piece. If the Oilers are sellers, the title is “Sale on Sail on, Sailer” and if the team is a buyer, or could be a buyer, we see the title above. It’s way more fun this way.
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
- New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect pipeline could deliver below-average group in 2020-21
- Jonathan Willis: Several factors led to Oilers’ Zack Kassian’s inevitable hearing with NHL Player Safety
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian calls Matthew Tkachuk a ‘p****,’ says he’d go after him again despite Oilers’ loss
- Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Mike Smith stars in Oilers victory, but others’ struggles could prompt changes
- Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
- Minnia Feng: Zamboni Ursula: What if Oilers fans could change something in the team’s past?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: ‘That’s the nicest goal I’ve ever seen’: Connor McDavid’s teammates amazed by his latest effort
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers notebook: James Neal’s resurgence, Matt Benning’s injury and the Tyler Benson recall temptation
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhands are pushing hard for NHL jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
- Lowetide: Ken Holland, the Oilers amateur procurement department and the 2020 draft
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
TRADE DEADLINES PAST
On March 17, 1993 the Oilers traded L Esa Tikkanen to the New York Rangers for C Doug Weight. Tikkanen was one of my favorites—still is—and my initial reaction to this deal was heartbreak. The Boys on the Bus expired in either September or October 1991, two massive and devastating trades put it all to rest. By the time they got to dealing Tikkanen, it was more museum than arena, but legends walked among us. The Tikkanen trade was the death rattle on the day it was made, but in fact brought new life to a weathered franchise. This was a brilliant trade by Sather, maybe the best deadline deal he ever made.
CHIARELLI’S DEADLINE DEALS
- February 2016—traded Justin Schultz to Pittsburgh for a pick (Filip Berglund); traded Teddy Purcell for a pick (Matt Cairns); traded Anders Nilsson for a pick (Graham McPhee); traded Martin Gernat and a pick (Jack Kopacka) for Patrick Maroon.
- February 2017—traded Brandon Davidson for David Desharnais; traded Taylor Beck for Justin Fontaine.
- February 2018—traded Brandon Davidson for a pick (2019 3rd used on goalie Ilya Konovalov); traded Mark Letestu for Pontus Aberg; traded Patrick Maroon for JD Dudek and 2019 pick (cashed later for Cooper Marody, pick was used on Alexander Campbell).
Desharnais earned a special place in Oilers history with the famous overtime goal against the San Jose Sharks, while Patrick Maroon filled an extreme need for the organization.
KEITH GRETZKY’S DEADLINE DEALS
- February 2019—traded goalie Cam Talbot to the Philadephia Flyers for goalie Anthony Stolarz.
- February 2019—traded Ryan Spooner to the Vancouver Canucks for Sam Gagner.
Gretzky didn’t have much to trade and wasn’t dealing from a position of strength, so I’m not sure what we can say beyond people were damned owly with Spooner so that trade probably needed to be made.
KEN HOLLAND’S NEEDS LIST
Based on recent reports, the Oilers are interested in Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Pierre Lebrun) should he come available. There’s also a report (from Darren Dreger) that the Oilers “want a top-six forward. He says there is speculation around “Kapanen, Johnsson and Kerfoot.”
Leafs need a RH defenseman to my eye, and that would be Adam Larsson. I don’t think the Oilers can afford to deal Larsson, but that’s some nice talent being discussed out of Toronto.
KEN HOLLAND’S DEADLINE ASSETS
One doubts the Oilers are going to trade the first-round pick. If it isn’t going in a Taylor Hall deal I don’t think it’s going. That leaves the following: Oilers second round pick, Oilers fourth round pick, Jujhar Khaira, Matt Benning, William Lagesson, Joel Persson.
Now, if he’s trading for a player with term, things change. I would guess that the three items that are completely off the table are Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg and the 2020 first.
After that, we’re looking at Tyler Benson, Raphael Lavoie, Dmitri Samorukov, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto. Would Holland trade one of these names and the 2020 second-round pick for a proven player who is also under contract? What would Dmitri Samorukov and the 2020 second get you?
TARGETS
Aside from Pageau and the Toronto Three, is there anyone who represents a quality fit? Well, if the Coyotes fall out of the race then Taylor Hall would be a great addition, but that’s a distant bell.
J-G Pageau has 19 goals, Mike Hoffman 18, Tyler Toffoli 12, Ryan Strome (RFA) 12, Tyler Ennis 11, Robby Fabbri (RFA) 11, Kasperi Kapanen 10, Warren Foegele (RFA) 10, Craig Smith 10, Lucas Wallmark (RFA) 10, Jesper Fast 8, Alex Kerfoot 7, Andreas Johansson 6, Andreas Athanasiou (RFA) 5.
Would you trade Dmitri Samorukov and the 2020 second for any of these men? Would the teams who employ these men find that package acceptable?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Friday! We survived one week in the Arctic!! We celebrate at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will pop in at 10:20 to discuss Kassian-Tkachuk, the Vegas firing and Astros scandal. Matthew Iwanyk will pop in at 11 to preview a massive NFL weekend and talk Oilers at the deadline. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. We’re live in 90 minutes!
Barring any long-term injury, Larsson’s value to this team next year is going to very substantial. Veteran RHD. And it is next year and the following years where this team should really be able to push as a serious contender. This year is about sorting out the pieces and making the playoffs and getting a taste of that and some more playoff experience.
Seriously. It is so obvious to basically everyone. Be the man KH, hold steady….
Perhaps. But the Stromes tend to play amazingly well with top talent and poorly without it.
Good posts.
I don’t have the energy to fight the good fight here over looming bad contracts.
I will reiterate that last season before he started playing with Connor, Kassian had 4 points in 41 games (Kassian himself had only played 38, due to healthy scratches). That’s when his agent got permission to talk to other teams about a trade.
4 points in half a season playing in the bottom six. Healthy scratched.
Even in a best case scenario, factoring in regression of this seasons shooting percent, player aging curves, and Kassian eventually getting replaced on Connor’s wing and falling out of the top six, Kassian’s next contract will be a disaster. Given that his next contract won’t likely be in the best case scenario, it’ll likely be worse.
I had previously remarked that Holland would have been better as a POHO with a more progressive analytical minded GM under him.
Get em to throw in Armia while we’re at it! I’d throw a deal sending Puljujarvi and a D prospect in a package with some cap going back (Gagner or Chiasson) for those two. Might even be worth exploring the cost for Domi while we’re there!
BRING ME TYLER ENNIS!
this all-star break, plse ‘n thx.
We’re chastising Holland because if the leaked details of the pending contract are correct, it reveals that our GM hasn’t used analytics to improve his decision making. Using old school “wisdom” and gut instincts is no way to run a multi-million dollar operation but that’s what the evidence is pointing to…
We are cap maxed and we need to make good decisions repeatedly to make the most efficient use of cap dollars. The more bad contracts, the less flexibly we can assemble a competitive roster. Just look at this past offseason! When Holland couldn’t afford Connelly or Burakovsky, he had to make multiple low dollar gambles on guys like Granlund, Haas, Nygard, etc.
WAAAAAYYYY MORE FUN.
Someone mentioned Lehkonen above. I think he’s a far better target than Kapanen, not as fast but still a fine skater, Kapanen has a better wrister but Lehkonen imo is smarter, better defensively 5v5 and is likely to be cheaper since he’s yet to find the next gear offensively but he has the skill to add more in that end. I think Montreal is looking for young D so they could be a good trade partner.
I don’t like trading Larsson for Kapanen. Larsson hasn’t found much consistency in his game after his injury but imo has shown in the games he’s been on that he can still contribute a lot. I watched a bit of a Jets game the other night and their play by play guy likened getting injured early in the season and then trying to get back with trying to get on a moving bus which I thought was fitting, just so hard to find your game when the season is at full speed. The issues he’s had this year are different than the ghost of a player he was last season. I think his good games have shown a better more mobile player who’s looking to refine his game and the bad ones have been more due to a lack of timing. He has his strengths and weaknesses and once the up and coming RHD starts to really push you can trade him but at this point it will risk putting young D in bad spots which could both kill the season and hurt their development. Much better to throw a guy like Larsson to the wolves.
+1 And I even think you are being conservative here in assessing his value to the team.
I’m not sure the rest of the team would be thrilled trading him while they’re still in the hunt for playoffs.
Cassandra,
If a trade is to be had with the Leafs, I’d guess the pieces are Caleb Jones for one of Kapanen, Johnsson, or Kerfoot. Likely the Oil would want Kapanen. Then add as necessary to offset cap hit.
I think I could live with something along those lines, as much as I’d love to keep Caleb.
Though I’d prefer a young, cost controlled 3C.
I would love to see an Oiler Flame playoff
but only if we win
I couldn’t handle losing that one
northerndancer,
hahaha
I wonder if he can catch Buchberger?
11 minuses to go
will he be here long enough?
I find it pretty interesting how people chastise a GM over a deal that is not even signed yet. Bob is certainly a mouthpiece for the organization but I think it’s far from a guarantee that he knows the exact deal that will be signed. I agree fully that if Zack likes it here and is in a great situation he should be taking a discount and not being overpaid ie 2×2 or something is more than fair. But maybe let the deal actually be signed and the ink dry before tarring and feathering a GM who recently signed a nice piece on the backend to a very team friendly deal.
Wow.
Nicley laid out.
What’s the max that you would go with Kassian?
Honestly, I thought $2.75 mil per 2 years was fine but Woodguy laid out an expert analysis on Twitter and convinced me that $2.5 x 2 was good enough.
***
It’s like we forget Maroon performed like a 1st liner beside McDavid and was a 2nd/3rd liner without
Then Rattie was a 1st liner beside McDavid then an NHL/AHL tweener without
Then Caggulia was a 1st liner beside McDavid then a 3rd liner without
Now Kassian is a 1st liner beside McDavid and a 3rd liner without him.
I don’t understand why people can’t see the pattern. The funny part is the only one who doesn’t look like a 1st liner beside McDavid is Lucic. He just suppressed offence both ways.
***
Honestly I wish our GM would learn that he can make “Pump and Dump” a yearly thing. Ask the coach to play an expiring UFA on McDavid’s wing. Trade said pending UFA for a 2nd rounder instead of a 4th rounder that he’d have gotten before. Watch as opposing mainstream media wonder why the offence dried up since the trade?
I agree with everything Arch@Archaeologuy says about the Kassian contract.
I would still pay him a $2.5 AAV even if it meant giving him term
$3m $3m $2.5m $1.5m ….. $10m for 4 years
It would not be a disaster to let him walk at anything more than 3×3
Holland definitley has the leverage here IMO. I hope he plays hardball. Take it to the summer if you have to.
He’s done a great job so far in moving out a bad anchor / almost untradable contract and of signing a promising young Dman to a team friendly contract. This is a different kettle of fish. Not overpaying a veteran player.
At the right price $2.5 AVV Kassian is part of the solution.
We wait.
32 seems to be the new 35
recently it seemed like when a player hit 35 you would watch closely for the decline year to year and maybe they’d make it to 37
seems like that’s 32 now. maybe 33. Not too many make it to their 35 year old season anymore. There are only 11 in the league now and one is being sent down tomorrow.
(11 that started the season 35 +)
Edit: this is for FW’s
2 points move McDavid into 9th all-time for the Oilers ahead of Horcoff
Klefbom is tied with Kevin McClelland for 49th.
One more point and he ties Risto Siltanen
(half of Siltanen’s points were made when he wound up with the big slapper from the point and missed the net and it made a loud thud or maybe more like a bang on the boards, everyone at the arena and watching from home said, “whoa”, then Gretzky got the puck and passed to Kurri who scored – iirc)
Nurse’s next game ties him for 44th on the OIlers all time GP list with Cogliano
Wayne Gretzky was plus 553 with the Oilers!
Buchberger was -99
Gagner is tied for second worst all time with Nail Yakupov at -88
Thanks for the random Friday night stats. I believe I have every photo of the ‘Gagner seen in photo’, photos.
Arch@Archaeologuy
Kassian is shooting 18.1% this year and had a career average of 11.2% before 2019-2020.
I can’t stress enough how dangerous this is. Changing NOTHING but his shooting percentage to career average yields just 8 goals playing with McDavid.
This is playing with Fire.
***
Want to guess which Oiler forward has the highest PDO on the team?
Hint: It’s Zack Kassian 1.029
***
It has nothing to do with loving the player or what has happened this season. It’s about using a critical eye to assess risk and reward for the future based on the evidence in front of us.
I love Sam Gagner for example. I wouldn’t offer him a contract over 1M moving forward.
***
Alex Chiasson shooting percentages 2012-18: 11.5% roughly 10-12 goals per 82 games
AAV on contracts: 600k to 1.2 million
Everyone knows Chiasson is basically a 3rd/4th liner
Alex Chiasson shooting percentage 2018-19: 17.9% 22 goals
Holland gives him $2.15M x 2 thinking he’s basically a 3rd liner who can be a top 6
Alex Chiasson shooting percentage 2019-20 since signing new contract: 9% on pace for… 12 goals
***
Using basic analytics with a shred of intelligence and we can see Kassian will regress just like Chiasson… or Maroon or Bolland or all those other 3rd liners who had one year bumps in their shooting percentages right before they went UFA.
Holland is paid multimullions of dollars to learn from experience. I don’t think he’s learning.
+1 Great post.
I may be one of Kassian’s bigest fans / supporter on htis site.
And i agree with everything in this post.
Bonino is 31, was never a good skater but is having his best year, points-wise. He’s also a LH shot an—ideally—we’d want a RH centerman somewhere on the roster.
I feel like we’d be buying high and I don’ts like acquiring guys who will shortly be 32 (April) and don’t have good wheels.
Signing Kass for 3 or 4 for example, doesn’t bother me because he can skate and is only 29 this year.
Bones is also an American and has never played in Canada. I’d need to be sure he and his family would be happy living here. His contract has another year to run at $4.1M.
McLeod +2 in a 6-2 loss
…if we let him.
Starrett was pulled in the first after allowing 3 goals
That’ll give him about 8 games to see how Benson adjusts/plays. (I’m thinking that they call him up after the initial Flames game)
I’d didn’t say anything about overpaying this player and have been very much against that.
I was speaking to not selling him off in the middle of a battle for the playoffs – nothing to do with over paying him.
McLeod with a goal and an assist
Per Terry Jones, Holland says he’ll likely wait 10 more games to see if he’s a buyer or will stand pat. Unlikely to be a seller unless the wheels fall off.
Also, doesn’t seem too happy with Kass’ penalties against the Flames:
Ken Holland wants to deliver a message to Zack Kassian and his Edmonton Oilers teammates as they prepare to head to the All-Star break and return to play their Jan. 29 and Feb. 1 games against the Calgary Flames.
“We have to make sure we play with discipline, that we play hard and that we play physical and do whatever we have to do to win,” said the new Edmonton Oilers general manager.
“But we can’t take undisciplined, foolish penalties losing sight of the most important thing which is the end result.
“You don’t want to have your players getting suspended.
“We need our players in the lineup
Ducks win moving them further from the gravy odds of getting Lafranchise
Jets lose big….Hellebuyck gets pulled…woodguy on to something??
they lose their game in hand on us and remain one point back
Holland certainly left DET in a good spot.
They are 12 pts behind the 30th place team.
Yzerman brought in Fabbri. Otherwise it’s all Ken’s work.
WG posted Panarin’s GF%. It’s some ungodly number, like 70 percent or something bananas like that.
Reja,
I would trade him. 20 teams interested? Cash in.
McDavid and Drai like Kassian for sure, but as Tipp said, they like winning more. If you overpay Kassian, that means no Taylor Hall and it means (potentially) making difficult choices on Nurse and Bear this summer and Nuge next summer.
Does it make any sense to suffer through a decade plus of no defensive depth and risk having to blow it because you payed Zack Kassian too much in the middle of his one good season? Shockingly, it’s even dumber than it sounds.
Holland, by the way, has already gone full dumb ass, saying today that he is aware of the good playoff that Zack Kassian had three years ago. You can’t make this shit up, OP! I wish I did something 3 years ago for a period of two weeks that justified a 100 percent increase in my salary! 🙂
And Oilers fans are tough as hell. Oilers fans have seen Gretzky and Messier traded. The dagger for me was Doug Weight getting traded on my birthday for Jochen Hecht! And Marty Reasoner. And Jan Horacek 🙂 How about Guerin being traded when him, Doug Weight, and Ryan Smyth were one of the best first lines in the entire NHL? Oh, and then there’s Taylor Hall.
No Oilers fan is going to care about a complimentary guy with delusions of grandeur being sent out. If Holland thinks that, he doesn’t understand this market.
If he balks at the offer do you trade him or try renegotiating at the end of the year.
2.75 x 3
4-0 Eagles. Condors really struggle to score this year it seems. Injuries/health of Marody has been an issue. What difference a year makes as it looked like he really had a chance.Malone, Currie, Gambardella all seem to be showing less offensively than last year. Only Benson on par with last years success. Hopefully we’ll see some better numbers in the second half for Maksimov and McLeod. If Benson gets called up, maybe Safin gets a shot. He has decent box cars in the ECHL
Way to lay down the hammer. What exactly is your take it or leave it offer?
I would suggest that much of the fanbase would not take trading the 1RW in the middle of a playoff battle, while the team is playing well, due to potential future salary matters.
We get it – many wouldn’t.
I’m not one that think McDavid is on the verge of demanding out or anything like that but I don’ think the would look too fondly on such a move.
I’m not against signing Kassian, but it’s Holland who holds the cards, not him.
If there really are 20 teams interested, like Stauffer says, why not deal him if his ask is 4×4? You have Benson and Yamamoto as top 6 options as of next season, plus Larsson as potential trade bait for another top 6 winger.
UFA is unpredictable. Sure some guys strike it rich, but there are others — Gardiner and Pat Maroon come to mind — who don’t. Tons of stuff can happen between now and the end of the season. Injury. Bad luck. He could also revert back to whatever he was two seasons ago.
If Kassian wants the security of a deal and likes playing with the best player in the world, he should pay for it.
Who gives a crap where you would go?
Do you honestly not get how pretentious you sound when you post crap like this?
Do you think I give a crap what type of whiskey people drink?
As a matter of fact, I’ve had some nice conversations on this platform with some posters about travel and some have expressed enjoyment of hearing about them.
Sorry to bother your evening.
Lol.
Back in the day many posters thought a Connor- zoomed Maroon would get $3 – 4m. Even Chia wasn’t that stupid.
Sooner than later the jets are going to have to trade a forward for a D-man.
Well I don’t think we are going to agree on the relative value of the player. I’m not against trading Larsson, but only if a team like TML is willing to overpay. Something like JP and Larsson for Kapanen and Barrie. Sure we don’t sign Barrie next year, but neither will Toronto. We do get a RD this year and Kapanen to replace JP. We also get Larsson’s salary next year to pick up 2RD who would be 3rd in a year or so if Bouch develops right. TML gets a cheaper winger in JP and an extra year of an affordable Larsson to sort out their defense which is going to be a mess next year with all the UFA and no cap room.
Poor Strome, he spent 4 years dragging Lucic around on the Island and then had to do the same in Edmonton and even last year in Manhattan.
I give Strome credit for developing good chemistry with Panarin, but don’t be fooled, it’s all Panarin
Of note, even with Marody back, looks like Granlund is centering Benson and Marody and Granny gets a one-timer from the slot away but a massive save at the other end. One massive save at each end.
Unfortunately, Malone does his best lazy center impression and loses his man to the net and the Eagles take a 1-0 lead off a nothing play but a defensive miscue.
Looks like Maskimov is playing with Cave and Esposito, at least to start.
Starrett with a diving stop on the first shot of the game on AJ Greer after that line gets caved – a massive diving stop.
Tampa crushing WPG 5-1
15 minutes to go
funny, as i was typing that, i was thinking, they have time to do more than mexico.
Hawaii is regaining it’s popularity I hear – as a quickish warm holiday
aren’t nhlers renown for going to Cabo?
Starrett gets the start tonight.
Persson remains out banged up – who knows what.
Marody finally back after missing 5, yes 5 games with a week long plus flu bug.
Nurse can break even with Lucic while Kass hammers on Sneaky Gio while golden spoon fed Tkachuk hides behind the refs.
I don’t disagree that losing Larsson via trade could lead to a massive hole – I’ve posted that myself in this thread and last night . At the same time, I’m not as convinced as I once was that it would.
You say the team “weathered the storm” when Larsson was out – they did more than that, they excelled, finding ways to win game after game after game including doing a great job of keeping goals against down – that was not just goaltending but the team as whole – Joel Persson treaded water in the 2nd pairing (Adam’s spot) and the other two pairs excelled.
The team was carried by the two big stars, yes, however, the point of the trade is adding a player that would help take that load – add skill, speed, offensive acumen, to play in the top 6 – a more established and faster Yamamoto – look at the impact that player had.
Lets also not forget that the two had to carry such a high load because no one else, save a James Neal PP heater, was contributing – the bottom six had like one goal in a month. That was not sustainable and has corrected.
Yes, coming back from the injury and being behind the league is clearly a factor, however, Larsson hasn’t been the player you are describing for the better part of three seasons now. He’s not even killing penalties regularly.
I don’t want to trade Adam Larsson either but, given ages, decline vs entering prime, organization depth at various positions and, importantly, contracts and team control, it would have to be explored if an option, in my opinion.
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
·
7m
Starrett goes tonight as Marody returns to the lineup for the first time in four games.