The Heart of Saturday Night

by Lowetide

On New Year’s Day, the Edmonton Oilers owned a record of 21-17-4, good for 46 points. The team goal differential was -7.

Today, after a stunning 5-1-1 romp through the heart of January, these Oilers are 26-18-5, have 57 points and own a playoff spot at the All-Star break. Goal differential? +1. That’s a strong run.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • New Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • onathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
  • Lowetide:  Oilers prospect pipeline could deliver below-average group in 2020-21
  • Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Oilers farmhands are pushing hard for NHL jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland, the Oilers amateur procurement department and the 2020 draft
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

OILERS AFTER 49 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 19-25-5, 43 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 26-15-8, 60 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 22-24-3, 47 points; goal differential -29
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 23-23-3, 49 points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 26-18-5, 57 points; goal differential +1

Music! Out of the blue and into the black! Edmonton’s goal differentials in the previous two seasons were ghastly and poor respectively. I know +1 doesn’t seem like something worth celebrating, but this club has climbed from a few miles back over the last 50 days.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Current 10 games: 6-2-1 

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 3-2-2, eight points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2017: 4-3-0, eight points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in January 2018: 3-4-0, six points; goal differential -10
  • Oilers in January 2019: 4-3-0, eight points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in January 2020: 5-1-1, 11 points; goal differential +7

The best January record in the McDavid era so far and it isn’t close. What a welcome mid-season kicker.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • On the road to: BUF, BOS, TOR, MTL, CAL (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 3-1-1)
  • At home to: NAS, ARI, CAL, STL (Expected 1-2-1) (2-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 3-4-2, eight points in nine games
  • Current results: 5-1-111 points in seven games

Oilers made a mockery of my projections. I work on these things, you know. In fact, I had it 3-5-1 before changing my mind. Wow. Beyond impressed.

OILERS 2019-20

Yesterday’s game allowed depth players like Sheahan and Archibald to get their boxcars healthy in a hurry, and we’re at the All-Star break with two men at 27 goals and three more with a chance to hit 20 goals on the season. Edmonton’s 155 goals ranks No. 11 overall. The 153 goals against ranks No. 18 among the 31 teams. All numbers five on five unless noted and via NST.

LINE 1 James Neal-Connor McDavid-Josh Archibald played 9:54, going 12-6 Corsi, 4-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-2 HDSC.

James Neal had an assist, two HDSC, drew a penalty and had a takeaway. He played well. Connor McDavid scored a goal, plus another on the PP, and was brilliant and fast as always. Such a pleasure to watch him play the game. Josh Archibald had an assist and a takeaway, plus a shorthanded goal and another even-strength goal that wasn’t five on five. This line isn’t an obvious trio, but it works. Archibald’s pass to McDavid on 97’s second goal was lovely.

LINE 2 RNH-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 11:43, going 15-8 Corsi, 10-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-2 HDSC. Moving Nuge to LW and recalling Yamamoto has turned this line into some kind of forechecking monster. It’s like three spring-loaded Dave Keons hit the ice in unison. I cannot tell you how much I love this line. Seriously.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had an assist and a HDSC, plus a power-play helper. He had some good looks, Nuge’s shot has some real torque on it this year. Leon Draisaitl had the work boots on and still found the soft hands of an elite playmaker while grabbing two assists (one five on five, one PP). Fantastic player. Kailer Yamamoto scored a goal and contested everything, he’s tireless and won’t give up on anything. Best recall in memory.

LINE 3 Joakim Nygard-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 9:31, getting caved 2-8 Corsi, 1-6 shots, 1-1 goals and no high dangers.

Joakim Nygard scored a wicked goal, helluva shot. He had two HDSC and two takeaways. A bullet train. Riley Sheahan had his best game as an Oilers player, maybe best ever. Two assists, four takeaways, won nine of 11 in the circle. Added a PK assist and an EN goal, going 1-3-4 on the night. He looks nothing like the player we saw the first two months of the season. Composed, intelligent, effective. Patrick Russell fanned on Sheahan’s pass, leaving it to Nygard to blast it home. Russell was the quiet one on the night.

LINE 4 Sam Gagner-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiason played 8:52, going 4-10 Corsi, 0-4 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Sam Gagner scored a goal, took a penalty and had a giveaway. Good to see him get a goal, it had been some time (15 games). Gaetan Haas had a giveaway, a takeaway and won four of nine faceoffs. He is also now part of the PK rotation. What an impressive season for him. Alex Chiasson played a pedestrian game at five on five but was noticeable on the power play.

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 17:07, going 22-16 Corsi, 10-11 shots, 3-0 goals, 4-3 HDSC.

Darnell Nurse had a shot on goal and played a calm, mostly low event game. Ethan Bear had four shots, three giveaways, drew a penalty, made a poor pinch that resulted in a goal that was called back on offside. His passing hasn’t been as prevalent as it was earlier, but his defending is solid.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 12:22, going 10-11 Corsi, 6-7 shots, no goals and 4-2 HDSC.

Oscar Klefbom saved a goal when Mike Smith went walkabout just before Gagner’s goal. Oscar had two shots, one HDSC and blocked a shot that hurt like hell and caused heartache all over Central Alberta. Adam Larsson was pure filth, that game he played was straight out of 1975. Two penalties, could have been double.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Caleb Jones played 13:04, going 5-12 Corsi, 3-4 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Kris Russell had a giveaway and a couple of blocked shots, plus a PK assist. Strong on the puck to start the Archibald goal. Caleb Jones is starting to get comfortable, and on two occasions bailed himself out of possible danger. He’s coming along. Gave too much Clearance Clarance on the Hall goal that got Arizona going, needs to tighten up there like Archie Bell.

GOALIE Mike Smith had some wild moments, the walkabout on the Klefbom goal was highly unnecessary and he placed the puck in poor places (third goal) a few times. Stopped 27 of 30, .900. He’s on a roll and that’s good. There’s a lot of adventure in his game.

CONDORS 2019-29

William Lagesson got sent down last night, Condors have plenty of games ahead and they can use him. I wrote about Evan Bouchard yesterday (it is here) and the excellent progress he is making. The post-Christmas numbers are quality. Also, check out Markus Granlund, that’s a player who wants back in to the NHL. Condors play Monday, I’ll be drilling down on that roster tomorrow.

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hunter1909

Reasons to be positive:

Oilers in playoff position at the end of January.

The team aside from the Big Two is starting to produce which is fantastic!

The goalies have settled down and are at least neutral regarding the outcome of the games.

hunter1909

BillyTheKidRanford:
hunter1909,

Hey Hunter,
Not sure if i’m way off here or not but…..
You hardly ever have anything positive to say and always seem to take a shot at LT…
I used to enjoy reading your comments but things have changed and you seem, sour.
Hope you are ok and have someone to talk to.

I never mean anything I say to Lowetide in a bad way. He’s tops with me.

Apologies if its getting misinterpreted, entirely my fault probably, so I’ll stop it.

ArmchairGM

duct tape and foil:
This is based on nothing but speculation, but I think Russell packs it in after he’s paid his bonus this summer. “Only $1.5 million left on the contract (he’s made over $28 million in his career) and it might not be worth sticking your face in front of frozen rubber and high sticks for another 100 nights. Way down on his usual number of blocks this year so this might be his last rodeo.

His shots blocked/60 is about flat at 5v5 compared to last year, but his TOI/GP is way down. What is way down is the rate of blocks on the PK, in the past 3 years he averaged 12-14 per hour, this year he’s down to 7.2. However, his SA/60 and GA/60 are both within the range of his 3 year average (GA is down actually) so I’m thinking this has more to do with coaching: fewer clean entries / set-ups and better pressure in the zone so fewer shot attempts are made, and LOOK at that HDCA number this year. Shots against are up but high-danger chances are WAY down. That’s sheer guesswork by me though, just from looking at the numbers.

2016-19, 4v5 PK
1:59 TOI/GP
101.74 CA/60
72.67 FA/60
51.91 SA/60
8.58 GA/60
7.23 xGA/60
24.08 HDCA/60
13.29 SB/60

2019-20, 4v5 PK
2:18 TOI/GP
95.28 CA/60
73.12 FA/60
54.29 SA/60
7.20 GA/60
6.25 xGA/60
15.51 HDCA/60
7.20 SB/60

By the way, Edmonton’s overall 4v5 PK number for HDCA/60 is 18.01, so Russell is definitely doing his part here.

I don’t see him retiring yet.

Bulging Twine

If you have Lebron James or Michael Jordan, a once in a generation talent, it would be super prudent to identify who he has his best results with and surround him with those players.

I would think the path to winning would be to maximize your best players talents, to sponge out the most that you possibly can from them. To give them what they need in order for their superior talents to help win the game. For most of the league there isn’t a ton of difference between the players, most are 6’s or 7’s.

In other words, when thinking of the players that play on McDavids line, it would be most beneficial I would think to view them from the perspective of: are they helping McDavid to help win the game moreso than from the reference point of the inferior player and how they benefit from playing with McDavid.

It’s about how to maximize McDavid.

Who does McDavid get his best results with?

Bulging Twine

The difference for McDavid of playing with versus without:

Kassian +8
Nygard +2
Archibald even
Chiasson -2
RNH -2
Khaira -4
Sheahan -4
Neal -6
Haas -8
Yamamoto -8
Granlund -8
Russell -8
Gagner -8
Draisattl -12

Bulging Twine

McDavid 5×5 GF-GA while NOT playing with:

Draisattl +9
Haas +7
Yamamoto +7
Granlund +7
Russell +7
Gagner +7
Neal +6
Khaira +5
Sheahan +5
Chiasson +4
RNH +4
Archibald +3
Nygard +2
Kassian -1

Bulging Twine

McDavid 5×5 GF-GA is +6

McDAVID 5×5 Goal differential while playing WITH:

Kassian +7
Nygard +4
Archibald +3
Chiasson +2
RNH +2
Khaira +1
Sheahan +1
Neal even
Haas -1
Yamamoto -1
Granlund -1
Russell -1
Gagner -1
Draisattl -3

Bulging Twine

5×5 GF – GA while NOT playing with McDavid:

Yamamoto +5
Kassian +1
Chiasson even
Granlund even
RNH even
Haas -1
Russell -1
Draisattl -3
Nygard -5
Gagner -6
Neal -10
Sheahan -11
Khaira -15
Archibald -16

duct tape and foil

This is based on nothing but speculation, but I think Russell packs it in after he’s paid his bonus this summer. “Only $1.5 million left on the contract (he’s made over $28 million in his career) and it might not be worth sticking your face in front of frozen rubber and high sticks for another 100 nights. Way down on his usual number of blocks this year so this might be his last rodeo.

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
OriginalPouzar,

I’d be fine with moving on from KRusty at any point in time, to be honest.The cleaner disposition the better.Veteran savvy and depth implications notwithstanding.

Yeti

duct tape and foil: Way down on his usual number of blocks this year so this might be his last rodeo.

More likely to be a switch in coaching emphasis?

godot10

I think a signing bonus means you have to play, or you forfeit it. I don’t think you can collect a signing bonus for a season, and then decide not to play.

Bank Shot

Reja: They can wait till the cows come home but if theydon’t shore up their D quickly they won’t be making the playoffs with a veryexplosive forward group. I’m sure a healthy MattBenning or maybe even Kris Russell would help their squad immensely.

Plus Byfuglien isn’t coming back. He is likely 100 lbs over his playing weight by now.

jtblack

BillyTheKidRanford:
hunter1909,

Hey Hunter,
Not sure if i’m way off here or not but…..
You hardly ever have anything positive to say and always seem to take a shot at LT…
I used to enjoy reading your comments but things have changed and you seem, sour.
Hope you are ok and have someone to talk to.

+1

BillyTheKidRanford

hunter1909,

Hey Hunter,
Not sure if i’m way off here or not but…..
You hardly ever have anything positive to say and always seem to take a shot at LT…
I used to enjoy reading your comments but things have changed and you seem, sour.
Hope you are ok and have someone to talk to.

innercitysmytty

I’ve heard on here a number of times that Calgary will be trading from their D depth for help at wing at the deadline. I find that interesting given Valimaki is still injured and they have very little if any NHL ready D in the AHL and their NHL level defense is not that strong to begin with. I read a lot of Flames blog material and that’s confirmed by people who follow that team much more closely than me. What decent D could they trade for a top 6 F where it wouldn’t leave their depth at the NHL level thin? Just don’t see it. I’m with OP that if they make a trade for a top 6 F it’s going to be paid for with some draft picks.

slopitch

Saad with 2g in 2 games since being back from injury. I wonder if thats who the oilers are scouting. I like the player – plays hard min and comes out ahead. Dont love his contract though. ?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

OriginalPouzar,

I’d be fine with moving on from KRusty at any point in time, to be honest. The cleaner disposition the better. Veteran savvy and depth implications notwithstanding.

leadfarmer

Overplayed goalies strike again
Hellebyuck 28-32 4 GA

Genjutsu

Meh I watched the game and don’t think it was his fault lots of chances at either end and sloppy play.

Two similar teams in terms fire power up front and suspect defending.

Kane with his 1000th NHL point.

OriginalPouzar

tileguy: This reply is not directed at you specifically but I want to,say there is a lot of non spiritual folks here. Making millions of dollars in a loving environment outweighs a few extra million and uprooting. Sorry, I am not more eloquent in my words.

I don’t disagree with the premise and, trust me, I know all about support networks, etc., but neither of us know what Zack is thinking, how he interacts with his support group, what matters to him and his family at this point, etc.

I believe he has love, loyalty, gratitude, etc. for the Oilers, for Edmonton, etc. and that leads to us speculating that he’s willing to take less to stay but that’s all it is, speculating.

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
The Jets seem like a natural trade partner, I’d hope KRusty would give a trade there the green light.

I’d be interested in a 1 for 1 with Lowry coming back our way.Hell, I’d be happy with the Frolik return… $4M cap space and a 4th round pick.

I can’t say that a Kris Russell disposition wouldn’t hurt the current team – I like Caleb Jones (and Lagesson) and think that a Jones/Benning or Lagesson/Benning third pairing can both be very good but Rusty can defend and kill penalties and it leaves the current team open to injury risk depth issues.

With that said, in the name of real team building this coming off-season, given Jones and Lagesson, yup, I take $4M of 2020/21 cap space and run. Oil could probably pick up a depth 6/7 veteran on an expiring contract for cheap.

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar:
Hawks are currently up 2-0 on the Jets about half way through the second.

If that holds, its likely the best for the Oilers – that will tie those two teams, 3 points back of the Oilers (who will have a game in hand on CHI and even games with WIN).

Hawks win 5-2 – things tighten up at the bottom but 3 points back and Oilers have a game in hand.

Good stuff.

leadfarmer

Well Saad is back probably why we are scouting
Holland you’ve turned Lucic into Neal
Now work your magic and turn Russell into Saad

Reja

v4ance: This was exactly the same point some of us we screaming about when Chia signed Kris Russell to $4Mx4.Russell’s defenders were saying, he’s worth it because of all his intangibles and an overpay of a million doesn’t make a difference.

Fast forward a month and Nurse is forced into a bridge contract because, surprise surprise! We don’t have $1 million more to sign him to a longer term contract.Now coming out of the bridge, we’re probably paying an extra million per year for Nurse on any extension.The long term extension for Nurse 2 years ago probably would have been ~$5.5M AAV.Today, we’re happy if it’s only $6.5M.

Proper cap management is all about paying appropriately for your top talent and finding opportunities to shave a few hundred or a million off paying the complimentary players.Kassian is a complimentary player.

I remember we lost a pretty good player over a hundred grand a few years back.

v4ance

Woodguy v2.0: What a player can get in FA isn’t what his actual value is.

I’m a big fan of players getting as much as money as they can.

I’m a bigger fan of the GM of the team I cheer for not overpaying marginal players so they can afford to pay to keep the difference makers.

If Kassian can get that kind of cash elsewhere, that’s great for him, his life turn-around and becoming a new Dad is a great story and I’m cheering for him.

As an Oiler fan I want him, but not at that price.He doesn’t bring that level of value.

If you don’t grind the bottom of th roster you can’t afford to maximize the top of your roster.

Every $750K too much given away adds up quickly.

This was exactly the same point some of us we screaming about when Chia signed Kris Russell to $4Mx4. Russell’s defenders were saying, he’s worth it because of all his intangibles and an overpay of a million doesn’t make a difference.

Fast forward a month and Nurse is forced into a bridge contract because, surprise surprise! We don’t have $1 million more to sign him to a longer term contract. Now coming out of the bridge, we’re probably paying an extra million per year for Nurse on any extension. The long term extension for Nurse 2 years ago probably would have been ~$5.5M AAV. Today, we’re happy if it’s only $6.5M.

Proper cap management is all about paying appropriately for your top talent and finding opportunities to shave a few hundred or a million off paying the complimentary players. Kassian is a complimentary player.

tileguy

OriginalPouzar:
As a person in (and that has acquainted with hundred in) the program and that have taken a path of recovery, I can’t agree with “personality change”– Zack was sick and he worked his ass off to get healthy and continues to work his ass off to stay healthy, I’m sure.

He is likely a “better person” now than he was prior to and in his addictive addiction, I know I am, however I cannot agree with framing it as personality change.

Anyways, in his recovery, a huge part of the work was likely working on “his defects” – false pride, intolerance, dishonesty, control, etc.Greed very well could be in there.

At the same time, negotiating in your own best interests does not equate to greed.If Zack’s agent is advising him that the market will pay him $4M for term in July, well, I couldn’t’ fault the guy for using that in negotiations with the Oilers are requiring a similar type contract.

I’m sure Kass has immense gratitude for the OIlers organization and the city but he is negotiating for the biggest and most important contract of his career – I hope he’s willing to give the Oilers a bit of a discount on what he’s being told the market will pay but I don’t think he’s going to cut a quarter off his deal.

It would be perhaps the first actual “hometown discount” in the organization’s history.

The issue is that the market will likely overpay for what he actually provides (and I do like what Kass provides).

This reply is not directed at you specifically but I want to,say there is a lot of non spiritual folks here. Making millions of dollars in a loving environment outweighs a few extra million and uprooting. Sorry, I am not more eloquent in my words.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Is Erik Haula a good bet for a UFA signing as 3C next year?

Haven’t dug into the fancies but I recall him being a good skater and gritty.

Reja

Harpers Hair:
The Jets can’t make a move until the Byfuglien situation is cleared up.

They can wait till the cows come home but if they don’t shore up their D quickly they won’t be making the playoffs with a very explosive forward group. I’m sure a healthy Matt Benning or maybe even Kris Russell would help their squad immensely.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The Jets seem like a natural trade partner, I’d hope KRusty would give a trade there the green light.

I’d be interested in a 1 for 1 with Lowry coming back our way. Hell, I’d be happy with the Frolik return… $4M cap space and a 4th round pick.

Harpers Hair

They will wait until the cows are safely tucked into the manger.

And neither Russell or Benning would help them in any significant way.

jp

Haha, what?

Abbeef

Both those players are an upgrade on Winnipeg’s top 6 D.

A manger is a trough…

OriginalPouzar

Hawks are currently up 2-0 on the Jets about half way through the second.

If that holds, its likely the best for the Oilers – that will tie those two teams, 3 points back of the Oilers (who will have a game in hand on CHI and even games with WIN).

OriginalPouzar

duct tape and foil:
OK I thought his KHL deal was up after this year. Might try to get his out early this summer if possible.

Sorry, didn’t see this prior to responding to your previous posts.

There are no NHL outs in KHL contracts – unless there is a transfer arrangement of some sort out of the blue with the KHL, we won’t be seeing him in North America next year.

OriginalPouzar

duct tape and foil:
Skinner is coming on very nicely this year. If he can keep up his recent play, then I cut loose Starrett over the summer and bring the young Russian over. Skinner and Konovalov can be 1A/1B in Bake and compete for the backup slot the year after. IMO Starrett and Wells both have low potential to be NHL goalies. No point wasting precious development time on those guys.

Nygard and Haas with both be better next season after having a summer to train with the knowledge of how strong they need to be in the NHL. Big disadvantage this summer coming in blind and expect both will be much better next season.

Trade deadline target is a top 6 LW or a 3C. If you keep RNH at LW, a guy like Lehkonen would help and you call up Benson to further improve the LW depth. RNH seems happy and productive at 2LW with Drai and I would not mess with this by moving him to 3C. A guy like Bonino could be a very good target if NAS looks like they will miss the playoffs. Not interested in the cost of Pageau if he wants $5 million. JP plus Khaira or Lagesson should get us something.

Sorry, Konovalov is signed in the KHL for next year – won’t be coming to North America.

Reja

OriginalPouzar:
For what it’s worth, Oilers have two pro scouts at the CHI/WIN game.

Jets need D we need a 3C or a forward let’s make it happen before the Jets are completely out of the race.

Harpers Hair

The Jets can’t make a move until the Byfuglien situation is cleared up.

leadfarmer

Its the Hawks most likely

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0: What a player can get in FA isn’t what his actual value is.

I’m a big fan of players getting as much as money as they can.

I’m a bigger fan of the GM of the team I cheer for not overpaying marginal players so they can afford to pay to keep the difference makers.

If Kassian can get that kind of cash elsewhere, that’s great for him, his life turn-around and becoming a new Dad is a great story and I’m cheering for him.

As an Oiler fan I want him, but not at that price.He doesn’t bring that level of value.

If you don’t grind the bottom of th roster you can’t afford to maximize the top of your roster.

Every $750K too much given away adds up quickly.

I can see why a GM is going to give him the 3.5 x 4. The teams and players like to have a physical guy like this around and the Oil have spent decades chasing this player type
But I would not

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar:
I’m sure most have no desire to listen a podcast hosted by Ryan Kesler and Kevin Bieksa but Kass was a guest on the current episode – doesn’t come on until just before the 40 minute mark:

https://kesandjuice.com/

Kass ends his appearance talking about the next game against the flames and “oh something is going to happen” – blah, hopefully it’s a regulation win.

OriginalPouzar

For what it’s worth, Oilers have two pro scouts at the CHI/WIN game.

Numenius

Dustylegnd: I am fine with $3.3 x 4 I think its spot on “fair market” value

Kassian, is that you?

Woodguy v2.0

tileguy:
What is the feeling on Mike Smiths goalering? Does he get the next start against you know who? Is he the new #1 because the coach and gym are familiar with him? Do we need to worry about Mikko and his confidence if he is being overlooked? And finally can you use the “ride the hot hand” excuse even after a 10 day layoff?

There’s no question that Tippett has given Smith way more rope than Koskinen, but to Tippett’s credit he dialed him back (a little late though) when he should have.

I expect that to continue and Smith to start vs. CGY.

Woodguy v2.0

JimmyV1965: We might not like the idea of Kassian signing for something like $3.5 x 4, but it will almost certainly happen in free agency. Some team will get pushed around in the playoffs and think Kassian is the answer.

What a player can get in FA isn’t what his actual value is.

I’m a big fan of players getting as much as money as they can.

I’m a bigger fan of the GM of the team I cheer for not overpaying marginal players so they can afford to pay to keep the difference makers.

If Kassian can get that kind of cash elsewhere, that’s great for him, his life turn-around and becoming a new Dad is a great story and I’m cheering for him.

As an Oiler fan I want him, but not at that price. He doesn’t bring that level of value.

If you don’t grind the bottom of th roster you can’t afford to maximize the top of your roster.

Every $750K too much given away adds up quickly.

OriginalPouzar

I’m sure most have no desire to listen a podcast hosted by Ryan Kesler and Kevin Bieksa but Kass was a guest on the current episode – doesn’t come on until just before the 40 minute mark:

https://kesandjuice.com/

duct tape and foil

OK I thought his KHL deal was up after this year. Might try to get his out early this summer if possible.

OriginalPouzar: One more year on his KHL contract and he may be ready for the NHL.

I like the contract timing – his KHL deal is up right when the ELC’s of Skinner and Wells expire so management can decide which 1 or 2 they want to sign.

duct tape and foil

Skinner is coming on very nicely this year. If he can keep up his recent play, then I cut loose Starrett over the summer and bring the young Russian over. Skinner and Konovalov can be 1A/1B in Bake and compete for the backup slot the year after. IMO Starrett and Wells both have low potential to be NHL goalies. No point wasting precious development time on those guys.

Nygard and Haas with both be better next season after having a summer to train with the knowledge of how strong they need to be in the NHL. Big disadvantage this summer coming in blind and expect both will be much better next season.

Trade deadline target is a top 6 LW or a 3C. If you keep RNH at LW, a guy like Lehkonen would help and you call up Benson to further improve the LW depth. RNH seems happy and productive at 2LW with Drai and I would not mess with this by moving him to 3C. A guy like Bonino could be a very good target if NAS looks like they will miss the playoffs. Not interested in the cost of Pageau if he wants $5 million. JP plus Khaira or Lagesson should get us something.

OriginalPouzar

Just took a quick look at the CBA and Benning wasn’t on LTIR so the parameters of Section 13.9 wouldn’t apply and this Conditioning Loan would be via Section 13.8.

There is no “games played” criteria, simply a 14 consecutive day max – Condors play 4 games this coming week so this is great timing.

Also great timing because he will take up a spot on the 23 man roster so we can send Willie down (to make room) and not worry about not having an extra d-man because of the Oilers big break.

Well done Matt and Ken!

Woodguy v2.0

From Daniel Nugent-Bowman’s Twitter:

The Oilers have assigned D Matt Benning to AHL Bakersfield on an LTIR conditioning loan. Benning can get some game action before being eligible to return to the Oilers lineup after the bye week, Jan. 29 vs. Calgary.

Good to see Benning feeling well enough to play and getting clearance to do so.

Good move by Holland to get him up and back to game speed during the break.

OriginalPouzar

John Chambers:
leadfarmer,

Really? I would wait to see how the rest of the season plays out but a series of 1-year contracts seems like the book move until a more permanent solution emerges in goal.

Smith has played well or very-well in ~75% of his starts which is good quality for a backup. He’s been atrocious in 3 or 4 games, but outstanding in 3 or 4 others, so on balance I think he’s been quite strong – I can’t think of the Oilers having a better backup anytime recently.

The raw save % appears mediocre, and although i do put a lot of weight into stats and numbers, I believe Smith is a guy who competes hard in practice, is well-liked by the group and his coach, shows up like a seasoned veteran, and doesn’t complain when he’s assigned to the backup role.

Lastly, I think the Oilers could benefit from some continuity in the lineup. Rather than see an ongoing carousel of 3rd liners, bottom-pair D, and backup goalies, I’d like to see them start next season with familiars like Sheahan, Archibald, Nygard, Jones, and Smith, who already know the system and their roles within it.

The problem is that Smith isn’t being deployed as a back but as 1B at worse – he’s got 26 appearances to Koskinen’s 27.

I do agree with personnel consistency in the bottom six and like all of the guys listed to varying degrees.

Lets not forget, with Nurse at $6M plus (which it will be), Kass at $3M plus (which it likely will be), Bear at ???? there may not be any cap left for external improvements – if we can bring at least of a few of these guys back on their apx $1M contacts, it should be done.

Holland is going to have to mover Kris Russell in the offseason (and/or Larsson).

N64

tileguy:
Take the Titans and the 7.5 points, no brainer.

KC spots the first 10 and swings to a 11 pt win. Like last week, but half sized. Of course.

tileguy

Henry basically a non factor, who would of thunk it?

Reja

OriginalPouzar:
As a person in (and that has acquainted with hundred in) the program and that have taken a path of recovery, I can’t agree with “personality change”– Zack was sick and he worked his ass off to get healthy and continues to work his ass off to stay healthy, I’m sure.

He is likely a “better person” now than he was prior to and in his addictive addiction, I know I am, however I cannot agree with framing it as personality change.

Anyways, in his recovery, a huge part of the work was likely working on “his defects” – false pride, intolerance, dishonesty, control, etc.Greed very well could be in there.

At the same time, negotiating in your own best interests does not equate to greed.If Zack’s agent is advising him that the market will pay him $4M for term in July, well, I couldn’t’ fault the guy for using that in negotiations with the Oilers are requiring a similar type contract.

I’m sure Kass has immense gratitude for the OIlers organization and the city but he is negotiating for the biggest and most important contract of his career – I hope he’s willing to give the Oilers a bit of a discount on what he’s being told the market will pay but I don’t think he’s going to cut a quarter off his deal.

It would be perhaps the first actual “hometown discount” in the organization’s history.

The issue is that the market will likely overpay for what he actually provides (and I do like what Kass provides).

I hope Holland signs Kass and Archie during the break you always get a prolonged bounce-cat from the player that happily signs. Say what you want about secondary players but no team wins without them.

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide:
New for The Athletic: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer

https://theathletic.com/1545458/2020/01/19/lowetide-with-the-oilers-minor-league-goaltending-not-good-enough-ilya-konovalov-might-be-the-answer/

One more year on his KHL contract and he may be ready for the NHL.

I like the contract timing – his KHL deal is up right when the ELC’s of Skinner and Wells expire so management can decide which 1 or 2 they want to sign.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar:
As a person in (and that has acquainted with hundred in) the program and that have taken a path of recovery, I can’t agree with “personality change”– Zack was sick and he worked his ass off to get healthy and continues to work his ass off to stay healthy, I’m sure.

He is likely a “better person” now than he was prior to and in his addictive addiction, I know I am, however I cannot agree with framing it as personality change.

Anyways, in his recovery, a huge part of the work was likely working on “his defects” – false pride, intolerance, dishonesty, control, etc.Greed very well could be in there.

At the same time, negotiating in your own best interests does not equate to greed.If Zack’s agent is advising him that the market will pay him $4M for term in July, well, I couldn’t’ fault the guy for using that in negotiations with the Oilers are requiring a similar type contract.

I’m sure Kass has immense gratitude for the OIlers organization and the city but he is negotiating for the biggest and most important contract of his career – I hope he’s willing to give the Oilers a bit of a discount on what he’s being told the market will pay but I don’t think he’s going to cut a quarter off his deal.

It would be perhaps the first actual “hometown discount” in the organization’s history.

The issue is that the market will likely overpay for what he actually provides (and I do like what Kass provides).

Truth.

I often wonder if there aren’t side things that can make a team friendly deal appealing? I have no idea, but despite that it’s verboten I would not at all be surprised that it happens. A lot.

Dustylegnd

The Oilers have very poor forward depth and a real lack of top 6 talent, Kassian like it or not is #32 in the NHL 5 x 5 points, he has 26 including 13 goals (Laine has 27 5 x 5 points)

Chiasson has 6 5 x 5 points…he makes 2.15 million and we are stuck with him for another year, he doesn’t have great speed and is not particularly physical….Gagner makes $3.15 and we have him instead of Strome (who also has 26 5 x 5 points this year) we also have Russel at $4 mill per for another year

We eat ~ $4 mill per year in buyouts for another year and then only ~1.5, however we are stuck with Lucic’s 750 K retention for 3 more years and a matching $5.7 mill for Neal

So now we all want Kassian to sign for $2.25 mill for 2 years, because that is what we KNOW he is worth and we don’t trust that he can continue to perform for more than 2 years….well he is a UFA and I can almost guarantee you he will get at least 4 years at better than $2.5 mill per year elsewhere

Signing Kassian at ~ $3.3 mill per year looks like pure genius when looking back at the previous mess described above

Kass is a plus plus skater he will be fine over the next 4 years, he is physical and when placed with McDavid scores at a very decent rate 5 x 5 and is willing to play in Edmonton …..not many UFAs aspire to play in Edmonton, they come to Edmonton if we overpay and they don’t have any other attractive competing offer

I am fine with $3.3 x 4 I think its spot on “fair market” value

OriginalPouzar

Lavoie with a goal and assist, 5 shots on net and plus 2 in a 6-3 win!

Andy Dufresne

My sense is that Lavoie will eventually play higher in the Oilers NHL lineup than Benson.

But Benson may be just as useful. (middle 6er on a good contract)

OriginalPouzar

geowal:
One way or another I think Kassian will see some extended time in the box next game, perhaps via misconduct, so good chance Archibald sees some time there regardless.

Here is hoping that Kass doesn’t directly contribute to a third loss against the flames.

He needs to be smart.

Get good clean bangs in at every opportunity – actual clean bangs, not the ones that “Parros has explained are clean” which will be called

Of course, this “strategy” should be for every game and not just hyped up games.

OriginalPouzar

tileguy:
Kassian has been through hell and back.
Kassian was still in hell when he joined the team.
If Kassian became sober through the 12 step program he will also of undergone a personality change and for sure will sign a fair contract. He will not holdout due to greed and I hope Ken will use fair bargaining techniques. I like the 4 year 10Mil Contract that Andy suggested above.

Fuge Udvar:
Geez that’s a bit much saying a guy will sign on the cheap just because he had a drinking problem. Kassian dessrves what ever he can get. If some GM goes nuts and offers him 4M then he deserves every penny of it. I don’t think he owes the Oilers a thing. He’s provided full value for his contract.

As a person in (and that has acquainted with hundred in) the program and that have taken a path of recovery, I can’t agree with “personality change” – Zack was sick and he worked his ass off to get healthy and continues to work his ass off to stay healthy, I’m sure.

He is likely a “better person” now than he was prior to and in his addictive addiction, I know I am, however I cannot agree with framing it as personality change.

Anyways, in his recovery, a huge part of the work was likely working on “his defects” – false pride, intolerance, dishonesty, control, etc. Greed very well could be in there.

At the same time, negotiating in your own best interests does not equate to greed. If Zack’s agent is advising him that the market will pay him $4M for term in July, well, I couldn’t’ fault the guy for using that in negotiations with the Oilers are requiring a similar type contract.

I’m sure Kass has immense gratitude for the OIlers organization and the city but he is negotiating for the biggest and most important contract of his career – I hope he’s willing to give the Oilers a bit of a discount on what he’s being told the market will pay but I don’t think he’s going to cut a quarter off his deal.

It would be perhaps the first actual “hometown discount” in the organization’s history.

The issue is that the market will likely overpay for what he actually provides (and I do like what Kass provides).

Andy Dufresne

+1

Great Post.

duct tape and foil

Silver Streak:
We made the drive up for the game yesterday. My Son and I..his treat for the old guys big birthday. Ice district never ceases to amaze me…feels like a newer, modern and taller version of Calgary….Remember when City admin fought and argued for 10 years over this…yes, Katz made money…but OMG look what we have to enjoy !
Highlight of the game for us was a non scoring play:9:02 of the 2nd period….Oilers PP moves up into the neutral zone with 4 skaters, just at the O Zone blue….Mc D comes late as often happens…..BUT this time he is way back…like the entire neutral zone back… he is so far back you couldn’t see this on TV..only the later portion….but he is at 54 mph…no one is anywhere near him but poor #33 -Goligowski…who looks up, sees the fast train, and promptly tries to turn, craps his drawers, twists his feet into pretzels, and actually falls into a heap of shame. Conner blew by and no goal resulted. One more notch in McDavid`s pistol handle…..what a beauty as ” Grapes ” is found of saying.

That was my favorite play of the game as well. Poor Goligowski looked like Charlie Brown after being hit by the pitch as McDavid roared by him.

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