This is an important stretch for the Bakersfield Condors, and the first two games (on the weekend) were losses. Goalie Shane Starrett, who was quality a year ago, is rusty after coming back from injury. Stuart Skinner, who has been the top goalie in recent days (before Starrett’s return) may draw back in today. It’s a big opportunity.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
- Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
CONDORS IN THE LAST 10 GAMES
Markus Granlund is the most impressive forward in this stretch, followed by Tyler Benson and Josh Currie. Offensively, Evan Bouchard and Joel Persson have delivered. Defensively, Jake Kulevich, Bouchard and Dmitri Samorukov are doing good work.
William Lagesson and Matt Benning were sent out for the break by the Oilers, so expect to see both men in action for the Condors this week. I’ll also suggest Skinner gets the start in goal, Starrett had a bad weekend.
PROSPECTS NHLE
I wanted to run this list both as an overview of the top prospects in the system and a possible discussion point of possible trade assets. Seeing this, I go back to the idea of keeping Jesse Puljujarvi for another year. If you can’t get full value, why trade the asset? At least wait to make sure Raphael Lavoie has a year of pro hockey under his belt.
TRADE OPTIONS
My preference would be to acquire a player who is young and under control. Rentals aren’t going to help Edmonton beyond this season unless major dollars are spent and the Oilers are not flush with cash in the cap department.
My list would start with one of the Toronto wingers, I do like Josh Anderson but so do the CBJ. I think the most likely acquisition is someone like Saad or Zucker.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy Monday show (I’m on the round table at nine with several hooligans) starts at 10, TSN1260. At 10:20 we’ll be joined by Chris Meaney from The Athletic to talk NFL playoffs and Super Bowl matchup, then Connor Halley will pop in at 11 to talk football, Oilers and Japanese television. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
New for The Athletic: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
https://theathletic.com/1545940/2020/01/21/lowetide-kailer-yamamoto-gives-oilers-a-midseason-spark-one-of-the-best-in-team-history/
Hey did Giordano text all of the people in your clips saying he was sorry? No? So McDavid was the 1 off, right?
Hey didn’t McDavid go after Manning because he thought what Manning did was dirty and malicious? Yes. Did he go after Giordano in their first meeting or express and disdain for him like he did for Manning in interviews? No.
Doesn’t Kassian stick up for his teammates when they are victim of dangerous or dirty hits? Not always, but usually he sticks up for them or avenges them.
Again, you are stuck in your own reality and refuse to see things that contradict your narratives.
You have an odd obsession with eunuchs, impotence and Kassian. Seek help.
I’m sorry but this is one of the dumbest things I’ve read in a while.
You should never bridge deal talent. If you identify a core talented player, you lock them up as soon as possible when you, the team, has the most leverage. That way, you pay a discount through their peak years.
Yes, you’re kicking the can down the road but you obviously don’t understand aging curves. The peak productive years of the majority of NHLers is from 21-25. The ELC usually starts at 18-20 and ends at 21-23. Signing them coming out of the ELC for 6 years pretty much covers the entirety of their peak years. After that, the contracts cover declining production. If NHL GMs figured it out, they’d stop overrating and over paying veteran talent after age 28.
Halll, MacKinnon, Crosby, Toews, Kane, Tavares, Seth Jones, Doughty. These are all great examples of going longer coming out of their ELCs leading to great discounts per cap dollar spent.
Off the top of my head, PK Subban Holtby, and Panarin are examples of guys who got bridged and got peak dollars coming out of bridge deals.
He’s a step below these guys but Nurse will get peak dollars coming out of this bridge when we could have signed him for $1- 1.5 million less on a longer term deal 2 years ago
I posted YouTube clips.
#TkachuksEunuch does a lot of talking about big boy hockey. Too bad he doesn’t play any.
I shall again play the role of godot playing contrarian to himself:
“Tkachuk did NOT make Kassian impotent. If anything, Kassian just neutured Tkachuk! George Parros will be at the game in person on the 29th to watch. Will he be watching Kassian? NO! The fans, players.. nay.. the WORLD is laughing at the league for how badly they screwed up the Kassian and Tkachuk situation. Parros will be keeping a close eye on ALL of the players. By my count, the Flames have at least 3 dirty players. TKACHUK. GIORDANO. AND LUCIC. Oilers only have KASSIAN. KASSIAN’s actions have effectively nullified 3 of their dirty players, forcing the Flames to play a less dirty game and to play more skill based, which is what the Oilers want.
Well done, Kassian. Well done.”
I shall play the role of godot playing contrarian to.. himself.
“Clearly what happened was, Giordano was so afraid of what Kassian would do to him in the first meeting after taking out McDavid, that he got McDavid’s phone number to try to convince McDavid that he didn’t do it purpose. This still left Giordano with sleepless nights, so Gio also called Treliving to convince him to trade Neal for Lucic, so Lucic could protect him against Kassian. Fortunately, Giordano’s first plan worked.
Clearly some people, like McDavid were born yesterday. What a fool. This is obvious because if McDavid didn’t fall for Gio’s lies, he would have exacted revenge himself and also got his teammates to join in like when they played Manning for the first time back from when Manning injured him!
Giordano was so afraid of Kassian, he had to come up with this elaborate plan. Kassian is not impotent at all. So strong and scary.”
As I said, when you have a narrative, you really double down on it. Or move goal posts.
You are so lost in your own world you reject reality.
Which is that McDavid clearly thought Giordano was sincere and Kassian didn’t do anything about because of it.
You paint yourself as a contrarian but really, you are just a fabricator.
Oh and I’m not sure why you think McDavid was born yesterday. You should write him a letter and tell him what Giordano’s true intent was. Maybe he will listen to you.
godot10,
I sometimes wonder if the commentators are watching the same replay. They’re calling it a clean hit, and to me it looks like it’s knee on knee as well as a head shot.
Wow that looks like a pretty clear pattern of behavior to me.
He’s a predator plain and simple.
I’d rather bridge talent if at all possible.
There is a lower cap hit signing them long term straight out of ELC, but it’s kicking the can down the road.
Because it means you have to choose to move them at peak, let them walk, try a deadline deal and hope you get enough, or give them the biggie and buy decline.
Connor is different, but for others as a GM is want the option to cash players with rep at the end of their prime with some term left if I wanted to.
All teams in any sport should want to be perennial contenders. If they aren’t it’s a lack of money or bad decisions. The NHL doesn’t have the money problem as much with the cap.
It’s trading some cap for good players to retain the ability to make good decisions that prolong success.
Paying good players isn’t what kills cap. Bottoming out is hard on fans and avoidable IMO.
Giordano’s trip was accidentally on purpose and sneaky dirty. The trip was not his first “rodeo”. I don’t believe his apologies or concern are sincere. It was for show. Some people were apparently born yesterday.
Aho
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-vVjvgmojM
Koivu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoDfOZIMDA8
Kadri
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YITSiM9jAUQ
Ryan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=11&v=nD03pq8iE9g&feature=emb_logo
Brown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebE8LTbe4GA
Aho:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-vVjvgmojM
Koivu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoDfOZIMDA8
Kadri
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YITSiM9jAUQ
Ryan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=11&v=nD03pq8iE9g&feature=emb_logo
Brown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebE8LTbe4GA
When you have a narrative to push you really love to ignore anything that shakes your narrative.
https://calgarysun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/giordano-shows-class-in-reaching-out-to-mcdavid-after-scary-play-last-spring
Sorry, why would Kassian go after Giordano again?
Tkachuk has made Kassian impotent. Tkachuk suckered Kassian into a full blown tilt and into shooting off his big mouth, and now any action by Kassian against any Flame will be under the leagues microscope! Zack Kassian. Tkachuk’s eunuch.
And Giordano is free to prey again on McDavid.
Yeah I’m not sure. My rationale is that if the team plays better/harder for Smith then you’d think he’d have better results than Koskinen. But instead it’s the opposite (GAA, SV% and a worse record).
The only ways that could happen are: 1) The team does not play better for Smith or 2) Smith himself has played badly enough that he gives it all back and more.
That said, I had a look at the team performance with each goalie in net and most of the results are better with Smith vs Koskinen (this is all situations). A caveat here is we don’t know if one or the other goalie has faced different quality of opposition to this point, but:
Koskinen
CF% 46.5
SF% 47.2
GF% 50.7
xGF% 48.9
SCF% 48.4
Smith
CF% 48.2
SF% 48.4
GF% 50.7
xGF% 51.8
SCF% 49.6
(I’m starting to wonder about xGF% since Smith’s is higher than any other number that’s supposed to feed into it, including HDCF%)
Anyway, it seems the team has performed a bit better with Smith in net (again, we don’t know if there might be a difference in competition). But the GF% is identical, so Smith has let in more of the chances he’s faced.
I’m still not convinced this is anything other than noise, but I’ll definitely admit there could be something to what you’re seeing.
Yeah, but what do you do next season when Smith is retired and you’re paying Koskinen $4.5 m for three more years for an aging career .906 goalie?
Pray?
(I’m also unclear how your question is related to my post)
On re-reading his comments your take seems fair.
Arbitration tends to be over by the end of July. nurse will have a contract one way or another by early August.
Have you posted what you think is a fair contract for Nurse?
I know you’re in the ‘2015-era #3D + inflation’ camp, but what would you like to see Nurse signed for, term and AAV? What do you think is reasonable, and realistic?
8 years $6.5 million
I think he can get $5 million in arbitration.
Do you think Holland would hesitate to sign that contract? My guess is the extension would be done already if Nurse were willing to accept that.
Do you think that’s a “fair” deal? Or do you think it’s one Nurse’s camp would accept?
unca miltie,
Only watched the third period. Condors dominated but Reign goalie was outstanding. Benning went back into the scrum a second time when I thought he should have skated away given the time left in the period.
I enjoyed your coverage very much. Thanks, sir.
Thank you, I appreciate all you do. I just happened to be lucky enough to attend the game. I really enjoyed the game even if the result was not what I had hoped for. Lots of action for both goalies, much more hitting than most NHL games. I am back in the Coachella valley and back to golfing in the morning.
I didn’t know that the lights were still on over at Coppernblue.
Pretty good hot takes on the looming Kassian contract.
https://www.coppernblue.com/2020/1/20/21073925/edmonton-oilers-news-hot-links-monday-january-20-mcdavid-draisaitl-nugent-hopkins-yamamoto-klefbom
“…Especially if the deal I sign FORCES the team to play me with McDavid to have any chance to cover the bet.”
“ nothing will justify that contract when it is signed… another classic ’can’t trade him after the ink dries’ Oiler’s contract!
Posted by Czechboy”
Keep the Copper n Blue hot takes at Copper n Blue
There were a lot of good points, some of which I’ve previously mentioned here. I did notice after the fact that there a few way offside posts in the comments section.
Kassian had four points playing in the bottom six in the first half of last season. He was healthy scratched too. He was given permission to talk to other teams about a trade.
The odds of a 29-year-old Kassian playing in the Oilers top six for the next four years are not good.
He doesn’t kill penalties, so that doesn’t lend itself to a utility role in the bottom six. Also, he doesn’t play on the power play, so when he’s not playing with McDavid or in the top six, there won’t be anything to hide how bad his contract will look.
Next year we have $2.5 m on the books for the Sekera buyout. We still have $1.33m cap hit for the Pouliot buyout too.
Also, we have three more years left at $4.5 m cap for a starting goalie with a .906 career save percentage, lol.
We don’t have $3.5 + to play an aging third/ fourth liner given the McDavid push.
Holland’s comments don’t really concern me as he seems to think it will get done and I don’t get the vibe that it means they are far apart, simply that Holland believe there is lots of time b/c of his RFA status and is concentrating on more pressing matters like Kassian given his UFA status and pre-deadline pre (knowledge of Kass’ desires are connected to the deadline pre as well).
I’m not sure they’ve really started negotiations at any high level with Nurse yet and just have a sense Darnell is going to “grind” for $7M plus – not saying he’ll get it though – hence why it could go long.
Yeah I’m a little concerned with Holland’s comment too. Sounds like they aren’t in the same ball park currently.
I think most would be fine with the Morrissey contract for Nurse – issue is he potentially digging in for a higher AAV, as often speculated.
He won’t get the Morrissey contract in arbitration given the term would be 6-7 years less.
– what should he have been offered two years ago ?
– Nurse had many detractors a few years ago. He has improved a lot. People would have gone apeshit if he signed the klef deal. Amd that would have been a crazy thing to do at that time.
Disagree but I’ve been a huge Nurse fan since watching him live at the world Junior championships in Montreal.
I think it’s pretty clear when you have a player you know will be a long term solution in the top 6 or top 4 bridge deals lead to cap problem later on.
If it were the Klefbom deal ($4.167M) nobody would have batted an eyelash.
Two years ago it was $5.5M and people were losing their minds. Ignoring the fact that 3D like Sekera or Petry were getting $5.5M in 2015 on the open market.
Huge fail by ChiaPete signing Koskinen to an inflated contract — early — when Mikko had no track record. Another of many handcuffs he left as his legacy.
Pete left Kenny with no leverage. Nurse should have been locked up two years ago. Now he can play the arbitration game. He doesn’t have to settle, and he has Morrissey as a comparable.
The Oiler could still pay, and if he decided to retire, who says Russell has to pay the Oilers back if they don’t care? Kind of a retirement bonus.
Great young player but not yet worth top money by a long shot and unless he’s greedy which I seriously doubt given the fact he knows he’s getting paid one way or another and he knows he can stay with McDavid and what’s better than that?
Watching Panthers 1-0 on the Wild lol what futility on ice!
Edmonton Oilers with McDavid+Draisaitl are worth watching every time they’re on the ice. Draisaitl always was a heady passer once he even made a pass that Yakupov could get.
Benning throwing punches
Nurse will go to arbitration, and get market value that way if Holland doesn’t pay him. Nurse has the even strength counting numbers, the ice time, durability, and he is playing top four with a rookie.
Maybe. But I’m not really convinced.
Smith had a 2 month stretch (between Nov 2nd to Jan 2nd) where he only managed a 2 wins and a .900 SV% twice (12 appearances, 10 starts). Just putrid.
Koskinen was generally good during that time until just before Christmas. Then he had 4 straight starts under .900 (2-2-0 record from Dec. 21-31).
Smith got the W vs Buffalo on Jan 2nd with a .885 SV% and basically got the net back. Koskinen got 1 start (L to Calgary, .879 SV%) to Smith’s 5 since then.
Given how bad Smith was for 2 months and how short (and not truly terrible) Koskinsn’s bad streak since then has been I feel like this is still the Tippett bias showing itself. IMO.
Jason Strudwick was asked about that the other day.
He said in all his AHL and NHL time he never saw that actually being true.
Many may see not all are willing to believe.
I’d say that it could be true for CHL or midget or beer leagues where certain players would play harder for one goalie over another. Personal bonds might matter more than winning.
Once you get to the AHL/NHL, if a coach sees you putting in less than 100% for one goalie over another, those coaches will beat that out of you. It’s just too competitive to allow anyone to slack off for any reason in pro leagues. In the AHL and NHL, players learn that it’s just a business. You may not like your goalie personally but if you miss a check or two, you’re gonna get stapled to the bench PDQ.
I Imagine it’s the same in a fighting army. You may not like the guy next to you on the line but you don’t slack off no matter what because both your butts are dead if you don’t give 100%.
From Jan 31st to March 31st EDM has 31 games in 60 days. That’s crazy.
Will need both goalies for sure.
Tough penalty with 3:31 left, doesn’t look good
What’s the basis for this?
Even after this hot streak Koskinen is 14-9-2 and Smith is 12-9-3 (in 25 and 24 starts).
Koskinen has the better GAA, better SV% and better record, but the team plays harder for Smith?
I have been around for a long time. Both in junior and juvenile hockey while as a player there were goalies the team would rally around and play harder for. Some things just are.You can call it chemistry,team cohesiveness, all I know is that it happens. Not all things are not quantifiable.
Seattle can draft him after one more 🙂
I’ll track the Pacific goaltender starts and results after the all star break and see if it’s as big a deal as you think.
Woodguy seems to believe through data he’s combed that there’s a direct correlation between % of starts by the #1 goalie and playoff success (or lack thereof).
So yes. Track that, would you? It would be good to have an outside source of data in the aggregate to draw reliable conclusions from going forward.
Condors are just dominating the third – continuation of the second – can’t solve Petersson though…..
There are goal tenders that teams play harder for. By my observation Smith is one of those.
7 including Day – who is now playing D with Manning ejected.
Good stuff, thank you.
Petersson is also out of his mind right now in my opinion – although the Condors have made him look like Brodeur a few times.
I was just thinking that not seen much of Benson and he had a great shift. Granlund has some skill.. com does need a goal soon.
Can’t disagree but I wanted to respond to your last statement.
I think that was indeed the case at the start of the year (Tip favoring Smith over Koski) but, in his defence, he did move away from that in December and has only changed back due to performance and wins, in my opinion.
Apart from illness, I still think that Koskinen might have aggravated something in that NY game where he all of sudden turned into the holey goalie when we were 6-1 up. Another reason Smith probably has the green light to go for now. Coupled with when Koskinen finally got back in the crease he looked less than confident.
I thought the same thing. Nothing was official but just a feeling
Not me, I pay for AHL TV.
You can watch all Condors’ games for $70 and its likely about half that for the rest of the season (they just did their mid-season price drop).
USD.
Thnx
Benning’s big hit:
https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1219413351370907648
Bit of a late reply.
IMO if Jesse wants to play in the NHL, he should change his representation. Nobody is going to give Holland what he wants if dealing with Lehto and playing time promises/NHL top six demands is part of the deal.
Getting a new rep could also give Jesse a dose of reality where his is at this point in his career.
I fear if we go down this route another year, he’ll just stay in Finland 2 more seasons until he’s a UFA.
It might be a way to go. It would certainly open up new avenues for Jesse. He might have to issue some sort of an apology/willingness to play type statement and come back for camp/preaseason with the Oil before next season.
I agree with some of the statements here that a lot of GMs are probably unwilling to move anything even remotely substantial for him until they see evidence that he’s ready to play ball and work for a team. I don’t mean this in the Yakupov “get your work boots on” sense, just that he’s willing to actually show up and do his best.
I still feel like a lot of this situation is on the Oilers too.
He’s not a UFA in two years.
I was immediately mad at Gio again.
I had let it fade but to me players that can’t not seriously injure others repeatedly lose my respect.
The Dirty Turtles.
Kassian’s re-up is a forgone conclusion, I hope it doesn’t hurt too bad.
Two games and Kassian has done eff all about Giordano. Why are the Oilers going pay him?
Maybe there’s a belief, right or wrong, behind closed doors that Gio’s slewfoot was unintentional.
Same as the one that ruined Davidson. Which alone should have merited a swift response and didn’t. That’s also on Lucic, JJ, Nurse and Maroon as much as Kassian.
Skinner has stopped 20 of 22, Reign have a pair of PP goals. So, goalie is good but the offence doesn’t work. Benning with the hammer and Manning thrown out of the game. Condors are askew.
Did they dress 7 D for this game as well?
Yes
7D including Day at fwd, or Day plus 7 defensemen?
Excellent, so at least they have 6 D to try and make pairs from for the rest – I’d rather they were down by 1 forward than a defenseman if that makes sense.
I have to agree with LT’s athletic article on Bouchard. He is playing much harder consistently. Saw one soft play on the power play. That is it. Great with the puck. These Reign play like the kings. Hard hockey.
Currie left the game but he came back – thank goodness – that would have been a big loss for this team.
Manning ejected for abuse of an official.
Condors have started to take over the game – Cal Petterson the best player on the ice in the 2nd period.
Condors could have 3-4 goals but Petterson shutting the door.’
Remains 2-0 Reign with a few left in the second.
He’s also the biggest reason we fell out of the race.
(to be fair he’s ALSO a big part of the team starting the team like a house on fire).
But overall he’s been quite mediocre and has lost the team as many as he’s won them.
I’m not a Smith hater but I do find it a bit concerning that Tippett seems to prefer Smith when all else seems equal (or even tilted somewhat towards Koskinen).