Four Strong Winds

There’s a lot we don’t know about Ken Holland, including his grades on Oilers, Condors and the organization’s distant bells. It’s safe to say we’re going to see more changes at the deadline, in spring and then summer, and that some of the names we anticipate remaining will be going, plus vice versa.

On a day when we’re many days from the next Oilers game, this is an ideal time to have that conversation. Consider it hockey’s version of a rain delay.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • New Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
  • Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

A CONVERSATION

I knew you’d call. Are they in last? No, tied for second in the Pacific at this time.

Huh. Are they any good without McDavid? About the same as last year, the big difference this season is both special teams and in the last eight games something close to a second line.

How good is McDavid ON? Improved compared to last season. In 2018-19, McDavid was 77-75 (+2) on ice goal differential five on five. This year, he is 48-42 (+6). He was +20 in 2017-18, so there’s lot of room to grow once the club can find him top drawer linemates on both sides. McDavid’s career peak is 2016-17, when he was 77-47, +30.

How bad are things with McDavid off the ice? So far this year, Edmonton is 95-110 (-15) at five on five. Without McDavid, the number is 47-68 (-21) and Edmonton is getting 40.9 percent of the goal share without 97 on the ice. Last year, the Oilers were 69-103 (-34), delivering a goal share of 40.1.

Is there any good news? Yes. I think so. I like to use centers as an indicator for each line and five on five goal differential as the measure. Remember, this team has been unable to find two outscoring lines. As I see the numbers, the C’s are McDavid (48-42, +6), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22-20, +2), Riley Sheahan (12-22, -10), Gaetan Haas (11-13, -2), Leon Draisaitl (2-11, -9), Colby Cave (1-2, -1), Markus Granlund (0-1, -1). I got Leon’s number by isolating him from both Nuge and McDavid via NST.

You said there was good news. Yes, the last eight games saw coach Tippett run Nuge-Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto and they’re about 50 percent shot share and on a goal scoring heater. Early days, and we’ll have to see, but the line has great curb appeal. Two outscoring lines would be progress.

Who are McDavid’s linemates? At the beginning of the year it was Draisaitl-Kassian but the team checked down to Neal-Kassian and in the last two games Neal-Archibald. They’re going to need another winger of course, whether that comes at the deadline or this summer. Said player may also be on the farm or in Europe.

How is Tippett running the forwards versus elites? Among regulars, there are three men who have played 200+ minutes against elites (97, 29, Kassian). Nuge and Neal have played 185+ minutes, and Jujhar Khaira has played over 140 minutes (representing 31.1 percent of his overall time). This is all five on five and all courtesy PuckIQ. Among non-regulars, Colby Cave and Kailer Yamamoto spent 35 percent of overall time against elites. McDavid is the star in possession, rel and goal differential (22-12) against elites. Nuge and Khaira have struggled here relative to teammates.

When are they calling up Benson? That brings us back to Holland’s evaluation. It may differ from Peter Chiarelli, the scouting staff and scouting directors. After the AS break, we may see Benson recalled as a pre-deadline audition. If that doesn’t happen, he would emerge as a player who might grade out lower for Holland. My ‘reasonable expectations‘ before the season suggested Benson and Cooper Marody would be here by now. That may be a tell.

Who is Tippett trusting on defence? That might be the biggest story of the year, in terms of Oilers surprises. Four men are spending over 32 percent of their five on five time against elites: Ethan Bear (36.4), Darnell Nurse (36.0), Adam Larsson (34.1) and Oscar Klefbom (32.3) are being asked to play in the heart of the game. In terms of performance relative to teammates, the top performers are Nurse, Larsson and Bear (this is all through the miracle and wonder of Puck IQ).

What are the pairings? Again against elite, Nurse-Bear have played 270 minutes and have a DFF percentage (that’s smart-Corsi, with shots against graded on danger and range) of 45.60 and a ‘rel’ of +3.7. The pair has outscored elites 16-13, but I need to mention both defenders have played over 170 minutes with Connor McDavid.

Second pairing? Klefbom-Larsson have been together for 113 minutes, Larsson missing much of the first half of the season. They boast a 47.70 DFF and a ‘rel’ of +3.4. The duo has outscored elite opponents 5-2, Klefbom playing 90 minutes with McDavid and Larsson 26. I still think this is the top pairing, your mileage may vary.

Goaltending? It has held through the season’s first half but lots of wobble in between the good times. Mike Smith’s save percentages by month: .919, .895, .828, .924. That’s Jekyll and Hyde territory. Mikko Koskinen by month: .922, .918, .901 and .879. The January total is misleading for Koskinen it’s just one game.

Who are Ken Holland’s keepers? Well that’s the point, beyond McDavid and Draisaitl (who he referred to as ‘Connor and Leon’ in his interview with Mark Spector) we can’t say for certain. He values Philip Broberg and Raphael Lavoie because he was part of the team drafting in 2019. Does he put the same value on Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson as the previous admin? I will say yes, but one never knows about these things and Holland’s grades will differ from the past dollar sign placed on the muscle.

What the hell does that mean? It’s an old baseball book about scouting. Fabulous. It is here.

Who do you think Holland values? I think speed is a priority, so we’ll need to view prospects and acquisitions through that lens. I would guess that men like Joakim Nygard and Josh Archibald have a better chance of getting re-signed than slower folk. I would also guess that Bouchard will be valued by the organization because of his exceptional skill, but may be brought along slowly, beginning third pair in the NHL. As for Benson and Marody, same thing. Arrive, prove, move up. I don’t see an Ethan Bear emergence for any of them to be honest.

What a load of hooey. You asked my opinion and that’s it. I also think the speed issue could impact Adam Larsson’s future with the team.

Are you enjoying The Athletic? There are many awesome writers there, and you are there as well. I absolutely love it, proud to be writing with Jonathan and Daniel. It’s a dream come true, writing about hockey for a living. I remain humbled by the opportunity.

Do the Oilers make the playoffs? I think it’s too close to call. Dave Tippett is a helluva coach and the Oilers have the two best players in the race. I expect Holland will make a tweak or two and Benson, Lagesson and others can help when recalled from the farm. There’s a structure and pace to the pipeline again, feels like a measured response at the deadline is likely.

What grade would you give Holland and Tippett this year? Tippett’s an easy one, he is an “A” all day long in terms of roster management. Holland’s mark would be a little shy of that, I’ll say “B+”. Although his trade for James Neal alone earns him a passing grade, the drafting of Broberg and signing of Chiasson got flagged in examination. Some of that is we’ll see, but it’s part of the record and we’ll need to deal with it in the now.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we hit the ground running with fabulous guests. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join me to talk first half of the season (surprises good and bad) and we’ll chat recalls and trade deadline. Corey Graham will talk Oil Kings at 11, the club is playing the most exciting hockey since 2014 of late. John Horn is our tennis expert and he’ll chat Australian Open at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

195 Responses to "Four Strong Winds"

  1. ArmchairGM says:

    For the first time in my life I’ll be cheering for the Boston Bruins tonight. And when the night is over, never again. It’s a one-night stand.

  2. jtblack says:

    DOM has Oilers chances of making the playoffs at 67%. Given expectations at the start of the season, this is excellent.

    I signed up for the Athletic 1 yr ago, in support of LT. I am on your free blog everyday, so felt it was the least I could do. It has been great value. Many great articles and writers.

    Chiasson signing was 1 yr too long. My fear is the same thing with the pending Kassian agreement. But Ken has the team in the playoff mix, so credit due.

    Can’t wait for the 29th and the Sprint to the finish!

  3. LadiesloveSmid says:

    As a big believer in hockey jinxes, I may have screwed the pooch on this one.

    I bought tickets to the April 4th BoA in Calgary. Edmonton better be fighting for the damn playoffs by then.

  4. Mustard Tiger says:

    Hey LT,

    Just wanted to say the Oil Can Podcast on the Athletic is tremendous!

  5. giddy says:

    Speaking of Four Strong Winds, I’m starting to really look forward to Springtime In Alberta.

  6. Pretendergast says:

    Make sure to check out the Mcdavid “Whatever it takes” on Sportsnet. Made me wanna run through a wall. Your mileage may vary.

    That captain of ours is a beast, and cheers to the medical wizards that helped bring him back.

    Torn PCL, Fuck Giordano.

  7. Darth Tu says:

    Let’s go Bruins, let’s go Whalers, let’s go Panthers (again – two nights in a row!).

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – We won’t know untill the last game is played, but it would be very surprising IMO should we not make the playoffs. Only significant games missed by key players (in which case its not a surprise)

    – We have showed some streaks where we are the best. And so far prevented serious bleeding.

    – No team is perfect: St-Louis is as likely to be 8th seed as continue where they are IMO. No one has our top end skill. It will just happen and everyone will say how good we are.

    – And splitting up McD and Drai (which I’ve for years hoped for), allows for more wingers to emerge (Hi Kailer), as those wingers get to play with skill.

    – The “Kailer treatment”, of playing with really good established offense-minded linemates, might be a template for another talented 1st round winger in the system…

  9. giddy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – The “Kailer treatment”, of playing with really good established offense-minded linemates, might be a template for another talented 1st round winger in the system…

    Sometimes I swear had the Oil received the opportunity to draft Laine rather than Puljujarvi. McLellan probably would have started him on the 3rd line in a checking/forechecking role, then started benching/scratching him for not putting on the costume before an AHL demotion.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points overy/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL 19
    COL 13
    DAL 10

    Pacific
    VAN 9
    EDM 8
    CGY 7

    Wildcard
    VGK 6
    ARI 6

    Out of playoffs
    WPG 5
    NSH 4
    CHI 4
    MIN 1
    SJS -4
    ANA -5
    LAK -9

    Relevant games tonight:

    VGK (+130) at BOS (-150) – Line feels right becuase Fluery hasn’t been Fluery of the last two years despite the team owning the chances and shots in most games.

    WPG (+165) at CAR (-190) – While fading Hellebuyck is my part time job, this line feels out of whack and isn’t value.

    FLA (+100) at CHI (-120) – CHI is now relevant. FLA played last night in MIN and CHI is 7-3-0 in their last 10 and have won 5 in a row. I like CHI here.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points overy/under fake Bettman .500

    Metropolitan
    WSH 22
    PIT 18
    NYI 13

    Atlantic
    BOS 18
    TBY 14
    FLA 11

    Wildcard
    CAR 10
    CBJ 10

    Out of playoffs
    PHI 9
    TOR 8
    NYR 3
    BUF 2
    MTL 1
    OTT -6
    NJD -7
    DET -22

    -FLA scores twice in the last 4 minutes, including the winner with 5 seconds to play to beat MIN.

    Relevant wildcard games tonight:

    WPG (+165) at CAR (-190) – While fading Hellebuyck is my part time job, this line feels out of whack and isn’t value. CAR price is not value at all.

    PIT (-135) at PHI (+115) – PHI is decent at home, PIT is dominate. Not a lot of value here.

    FLA (+100) at CHI (-120) – FLA played last night in MIN and CHI is 7-3-0 in their last 10 and have won 5 in a row. I like CHI here.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    The McDavid off-ice number overall does now look good but how much of that is a function of historically unsustainably low goal scoring by the bottom 9 in October?

    I wonder what the numbers would look like if we did a month by month split.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Condors dominated most of the last two thirds of the game last night but Cal Peterson had yet another outstanding game against Bakerfield and, frankly, numerous unecessary penalties by the Condors killed them.

    Frankly, dominating possession but losing the goalie battle and taking bad penalties has been a theme for the year.

    With that said, last night was a VERY positive game in my mind vis-a-vis Matty Benning. It was great to see him on the ice but he showed very little tentativeness – he threw a massive open ice hit and Anderson-Dolan in the 2nd and was actively involved is a fairly heated scrum in the third – helmet off and went back in to he scum for more.

    The concern I’ve had with Matty is if he will change his game on the ice due to hesitation, tentativeness, fear, uncomfortable, etc. If last night was any indication, those concerns are starting to dwindle.

  14. jtblack says:

    Friend sent me this.

    MALKIN has played 142 games without Crosby.

    In those games he has 198 Points

  15. godot10 says:

    One figures Netflix or Google or Apple will buy it when they start competing in earnest for sports broadcast rights. That has to be the exit strategy.

    i.e. Apple/Athletic vs. Disney/ESPN

  16. flyfish1168 says:

    Just for conversation what if. Bruins are loading up for run at Stanley. If they wanted Zack and offer a roster player for example Bjork and a draft pick would we go for it and try and sign Zack in the summer.

  17. tileguy says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Tkachuk is very smart and has an ability to play right on that line.Maybe now and in the future he won’t get the benefit of the doubt, we’ll see – it hasn’t played out like that in the past.

    I think the league/Paros fucked up ruling those hits legal. He will be at the game looking for shenanigans, but also keeping an eye open on Chuck and how he plays the game. My guess is the refs will be told to enforce the charging rule.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The McDavid off-ice number overall does now look good but how much of that is a function of historically unsustainably low goal scoring by the bottom 9 in October?

    I wonder what the numbers would look like if we did a month by month split.

    This is an interesting question, so I’ll be your answer monkey.

    5v5 GF% by month (too much work to include 3v3 and 4v4, and there are only a handful of goals so I’m ignoring it) All data va Naturalstattrick.com

    Oct
    Team (25-25) 50%
    McDavid On (17-7) 71%
    McDavid Off (8-18) 22%

    Nov
    Team (32-34) 48%
    McDavid On (16-16) 50%
    McDavid Off (16-18) 47%

    Dec
    Team (18-38) 32%
    McDavid On (9-15) 38%
    McDavid Off (9-23) 28%

    Jan
    Team (20-13) 61%
    McDavid On (6-4) 60%
    McDavid Off (14-9) 61%

    Season totals:
    Team (95-110) 46%
    McDavid On (48-42) 53%
    McDavid Off (47-68) 41%

  19. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    flyfish1168,

    These are teams, not stocks.

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT,

    Your foil is much less of a dink than he usually is.

    I’m a bit disappointed.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LT,

    Your foil is much less of a dink than he usually is.

    I’m a bit disappointed.

    Blame the Oilers! Not enough losses!

  22. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The Athletic is growing again.

    https://amp.axios.com/the-athletic-fundraising-round-series-d-e7026194-ccc7-4ec2-8415-6b8902c9a11a.html?__twitter_impression=true

    – Was in the midst of typing something up on this, so I will just repy. “Growing”might me a misnomer.

    – This is my bailiwick, so indulge me as a try to form my thoughts

    – I really do hope they make a go of it: All these talented writers have been displaced from their media platforms and the Athletic’s investors have made this massive bet that by hiring these top-talent sports journalists in local markets they can conglomerate them and get people to pay for high-quality journalism content.

    – But this raise, while on the surface is good: could be a red flag… Raising money is very dillutive. They talk about the path to profitability: and with 1MM subs paying $80 bucks a year or so, and 500 employees: that’s tight, and lots of this top talent would be well into 6 figures…

    – Unlike public companies like say Netflix, who can sell great content and access money an run loses for many years given their valuation and market multiple, The Athletic is a simple model to follow, with not much premium built into it.

    – Perhaps their end game is to be bought by a media conglomerate that would value those 1MM subs. They also have no advertising (but tremendous info on the subs)

    – So they can couch this round, less than 24 months from the prior as “growth”, but I’d be certain that they need it as well for ongoing working capital and to feed the machine

    – Its a great product, people are loyal to their teams: but I wonder what their demographic is. For me paying $5 is a no brainer. Its the 2nd paid subscription I have for news content (NY Times is the other): But its not slick, or tech-savvy. Its not sick for lots of the internet audience

    – But the Athletic is a niche. I hope it continues, that they keep their costs under control, and do indeed make a return for their investors (this isn’t a long-term vanity project/tax write-off/good will like Bezo’s owning Washington Post: these investors need to get paid)

    – Some of the Athletic type online news companies have been sold and investors did ok, others just ran out of money, or expanded too quickly, and lost the plot.

  23. flyfish1168 says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    flyfish1168,

    These are teams, not stocks.

    We are all just a piece of meat

  24. geowal says:

    Always good to see an appearance though!

  25. MacT's Neglected Helmet says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Good analysis. I’m sceptical too. I’m not sure it’s sustainable. There are only so many people willing to pay for quality sports writing. Gotta think that those that are willing to pay are already paying – so where’s the growth going to come from?

    I do hope they succeed not just for the great writing their talented writers produce, but to show the tech and content biz that not everything needs to be ad-driven (i.e. selling out of user data)… but I’m just not sure.

  26. Scungilli Slushy says:

    flyfish1168: We are all just a piece of meat

    Not all employers are toxic.

    As one myself I can say that opportunities abound these days, far more than when I was entering the workforce, and at much better pay.

    It is unbelievably hard to find people that contribute to the success of the business (which is directly correlated with their success), even realize what that means, care enough, or can manage themselves in a healthy enough way personally.

    I used to rankle that economists constantly rated Canada’s workers as not as productive as other country’s workers. I don’t anymore. It’s true for me. My choices being cracking the whip constantly and being the boss they don’t want, or accepting it.

    Drives my colleagues bonkers as well. Particularly love the gov’t unionized workers standing around chatting for an hour at the beginning of their day and half an hour at the end complaining about work and pay, in front of unpensioned people with a quarter of the benefits.

    Let’s say that while liking the people, my employees don’t think they are ‘earning’ more pay. Same as private sector customers whining about pay while consistently not putting in 40 hours of work in a week or even showing up predictably.

    Don’t like your job? Quit. With appropriate notice.
    Want more? Work smarter.

    End Rant.

  27. Lowetide says:

    I deleted a couple of posts this morning, due to the fact they originated in previous threads. Please respect other posters, as sometimes there are 30 or more posts in a single thread by individuals. If you’re worried about creating a brand, it’s already been created here. The next step is a blog. I will gladly link it on my blogroll, but borrowing posts from one thread to another is a way for us to allow others to breath some clean air content wise.

    Please and thanks.

  28. Shane says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    You know, I’ve been wondering about this McDavidoff guy… seems he’s been a whipping boy around here for awhile. I figured it was because he was Russian or something. But looking at WGs numbers I see he’s been terribly inconsistent so I understand the concern.

    Hopefully January McDavidoff is closer to the real McDavidoff than October McDavidoff was…

    Go McDavidoff!!

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scott Howson is scheduled to be on Oilers Now at just after 1 (mountain).

    I assume Scott will provide an update on our European prospects (Broberg, Berglund) and potentially some of the guys in college.

    Maybe we’ll get some thoughts on where Broberg may play next year (Bakersfield vs. Skelfeeta), the potential to sign Berglund (and maybe even McPhee), etc.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Spec on Oilers Now says no new info on Kass but they are close on term and close on dollars.

    May get done in the next few days or next few weeks but he’s not going to UFA.

  31. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide:
    I deleted a couple of posts this morning, due to the fact they originated in previous threads.

    – Meant to tell Unca I enjoyed his live game-day posts from Bakersfield + give him a KINGER HOT TIP: “Order Double Jack and Diet Cokes when team is down, it helps” Does that count?

  32. Litke 94 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is an interesting question, so I’ll be your answer monkey.

    5v5 GF% by month (too much work to include 3v3 and 4v4, and there are only a handful of goals so I’m ignoring it)All data va Naturalstattrick.com

    Oct
    Team (25-25) 50%
    McDavid On (17-7) 71%
    McDavid Off (8-18) 22%

    Nov
    Team (32-34) 48%
    McDavid On (16-16) 50%
    McDavid Off (16-18) 47%

    Dec
    Team (18-38) 32%
    McDavid On (9-15) 38%
    McDavid Off (9-23) 28%

    Jan
    Team (20-13) 61%
    McDavid On (6-4) 60%
    McDavid Off (14-9) 61%

    Season totals:
    Team (95-110) 46%
    McDavid On (48-42) 53%
    McDavid Off (47-68) 41%

    Good lord was December ugly. Seriously amazing that the Oilers were able to recover in January like they have.

    If we can come in somewhere between January and November numbers for the remainder of the season, things will be looking good for a couple of ICE District watch parties in April.

  33. Darth Tu says:

    Roll on the Oilers discount (I hope). I like Kass a lot but please let’s not overpay again.

  34. geowal says:

    Rookie games are back in Penticton!

  35. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Would you trade Puljujarvi for Ryan Donato? Scores well at 5v5. Was supposedly an oiler target last year.

  36. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I caught a bit of that chat. Spec was talking a bit about trade targets, he was cooling on the idea of the Oilers getting Pageau, mainly due to their being more teams willing to pay higher than what he thinks Holland would be comfortable with.

    I’d agree with that stance. I like Pageau, but also understand that he’s on a bit of a heater this year. If he’s a rental then we probably can’t afford what the ask is going to be, or what one of the other competitors can offer.

  37. theDjdj says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is an interesting question, so I’ll be your answer monkey.

    5v5 GF% by month (too much work to include 3v3 and 4v4, and there are only a handful of goals so I’m ignoring it)All data va Naturalstattrick.com

    Oct
    Team (25-25) 50%
    McDavid On (17-7) 71%
    McDavid Off (8-18) 22%

    Nov
    Team (32-34) 48%
    McDavid On (16-16) 50%
    McDavid Off (16-18) 47%

    Dec
    Team (18-38) 32%
    McDavid On (9-15) 38%
    McDavid Off (9-23) 28%

    Jan
    Team (20-13) 61%
    McDavid On (6-4) 60%
    McDavid Off (14-9) 61%

    Season totals:
    Team (95-110) 46%
    McDavid On (48-42) 53%
    McDavid Off (47-68) 41%

    This matches my mind. I was quite surprised to see the McDavid off totals hovering around last years. Looks like October absolutely thank the year to date.

    Would you happen to know what the average spread is for the league? Top line GF % vs rest of team? Don’t trouble yourself if you don’t know off-hand. Just curious to see how much worse we are vs the league.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scott Howson:

    Oilers have pro and amateur meetings next week.

    As we know, Howson deals with the non-Bakersfield players mainly.

    On Broberg

    Playing regularly as an 18 year old against men. At the WJC he was asked to be a shut down d-man. Ken was at WJC and was happy with his play. Pleased with where he is – still a kid, not a man yet. Got tremendous range. Got better hockey sense than the verbal. At least a year or two from helping at NHL.

    Will need to decide what to do with him next year, bring him over to Bakersfield or leave him in Skelfeeta – part of that will be predicated on how the rest of the season goes. Haven’t discussed that yet with the player. Very few 18 year olds play in the SHL and play regularly. Will sit down with him at the end of the year and see what he wants to do. This year he really wanted to stay as opposed to going to Hamilton.

    As far as his point totals – he’s not on the PP. They didn’t expect points. They just want him to play. They’d prefer he gets 18 minutes but are OK with 14-15.

    Don’t see him as a huge point producer at the NHL level, more of a 2-way guy. See Bouch as a higher point producer.

    ——————————————————————

    On Berglund:

    Definitely on the radar to be signed. We have until June or we lose his rights.

    His game has grown – he’s now an “all-situations” guy – PP, PK.

    Improved his skating.

    —————————————————————

    Markus Niemeläinen:

    Also have to make a decision on him as his rights will be lost.

    He struggled in Saginaw and struggled in Finland and fell off the map a bit.

    He’s now coming on – played 20 minutes in the Finish league last year.

    Playing up to 24 minutes a night now – huge buy but great skater with range.

    He’s put himself on the radar now with respect to signing.

    Average with the puck and that may be an issue.

    He is a defensive d-man and he knows that now.

    ———————————————————————-

    On Lavoie:

    He’s put himself in the position and is ready to move on – that is, turn pro next year

    He’s not playing as much on Chicoutimi as he was in Halifax which is good as he was playing a ton in Halifiax and doing the “resting on the ice” which they want to get out of him.

    Bullish on Rafael.

    Will have to get stronger and become a better skater.

    He’s got a great shot, a one-shot shooter.

    —————————————————

    On Konovalov:

    Size isn’t a worry as he’s a thick and strong guy with big legs

    Set back year a bit – struggling a bit and dealing with adversity.

    He’s a “legitimate prospect” for us.

    He’s got another year in the KHL and we’ll see about bringing him over the following year.

    —————————————————–

    On Rodrigue:

    Development has been a bit flat but don’t get caught up with numbers in the Q.

    They talked about .910 being a target for him this year so he’s a bit off that.

    Big 3-4 months of development coming up with him – Moncton should have a playoff run.

    ————————————————–

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    Shane:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    You know, I’ve been wondering about this McDavidoff guy… seems he’s been a whipping boy around here for awhile. I figured it was because he was Russian or something. But looking at WGs numbers I see he’s been terribly inconsistent so I understand the concern.

    Hopefully January McDavidoff is closer to the real McDavidoff than October McDavidoff was…

    Go McDavidoff!!

    January McDavidoff is making McDavid redundant!

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers announce that the Young Stars Tourney in Penticton will be back on this fall.

  41. oilsnc79 says:

    I think Kass will win the bet, his speed alone is a plus.
    I love the athletic especially lowetide writings as well as this blog.
    Thanks Allen, Jonathon and Daniel. Great stuff

  42. theDjdj says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Scott Howson:

    Oilers have pro and amateur meetings next week.

    As we know, Howson deals with the non-Bakersfield players mainly.

    On Broberg

    Playing regularly as an 18 year old against men. At the WJC he was asked to be a shut down d-man. Ken was at WJC and was happy with his play. Pleased with where he is – still a kid, not a man yet.Got tremendous range. Got better hockey sense than the verbal. At least a year or two from helping at NHL.

    Will need to decide what to do with him next year, bring him over to Bakersfield or leave him in Skelfeeta – part of that will be predicated on how the rest of the season goes. Haven’t discussed that yet with the player.Very few 18 year olds play in the SHL and play regularly. Will sit down with him at the end of the year and see what he wants to do.This year he really wanted to stay as opposed to going to Hamilton.

    As far as his point totals – he’s not on the PP.They didn’t expect points.They just want him to play.They’d prefer he gets 18 minutes but are OK with 14-15.

    Don’t see him as a huge point producer at the NHL level, more of a 2-way guy. See Bouch as a higher point producer.

    ——————————————————————

    On Berglund:

    Definitely on the radar to be signed. We have until June or we lose his rights.

    His game has grown – he’s now an “all-situations” guy – PP, PK.

    Improved his skating.

    —————————————————————

    Markus Niemeläinen:

    Also have to make a decision on him as his rights will be lost.

    He struggled in Saginaw and struggled in Finland and fell off the map a bit.

    He’s now coming on – played 20 minutes in the Finish league last year.

    Playing up to 24 minutes a night now – huge buy but great skater with range.

    He’s put himself on the radar now with respect to signing.

    Average with the puck and that may be an issue.

    He is a defensive d-man and he knows that now.

    ———————————————————————-

    On Lavoie:

    He’s put himself in the position and is ready to move on – that is, turn pro next year

    He’s not playing as much on Chicoutimi as he was in Halifax which is good as he was playing a ton in Halifiax and doing the “resting on the ice” which they want to get out of him.

    Bullish on Rafael.

    Will have to get stronger and become a better skater.

    He’s got a great shot, a one-shot shooter.

    —————————————————

    On Konovalov:

    Size isn’t a worry as he’s a thick and strong guy with big legs

    Set back year a bit – struggling a bit and dealing with adversity.

    He’s a “legitimate prospect” for us.

    He’s got another year in the KHL and we’ll see about bringing him over the following year.

    —————————————————–

    On Rodrigue:

    Development has been a bit flat but don’t get caught up with numbers in the Q.

    They talked about .910 being a target for him this year so he’s a bit off that.

    Big 3-4 months of development coming up with him – Moncton should have a playoff run.

    ————————————————–

    Thank you, OP. Your commitment to sharing information and discussion is always appreciated by me. It’s difficult staying on top of everything on the other side of the world so your handy little dissections help me a lot.

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is an interesting question, so I’ll be your answer monkey.

    5v5 GF% by month (too much work to include 3v3 and 4v4, and there are only a handful of goals so I’m ignoring it)All data va Naturalstattrick.com

    Oct
    Team (25-25) 50%
    McDavid On (17-7) 71%
    McDavid Off (8-18) 22%

    Nov
    Team (32-34) 48%
    McDavid On (16-16) 50%
    McDavid Off (16-18) 47%

    Dec
    Team (18-38) 32%
    McDavid On (9-15) 38%
    McDavid Off (9-23) 28%

    Jan
    Team (20-13) 61%
    McDavid On (6-4) 60%
    McDavid Off (14-9) 61%

    Season totals:
    Team (95-110) 46%
    McDavid On (48-42) 53%
    McDavid Off (47-68) 41%

    Thanks WG – excellent info! Can I ask how exactly you got this out of NST? Did you pull the numbers manually or is there some setting that I haven’t found yet that gives you this easily? I tried the “Line Tool” but it won’t let you isolate only one player…

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Manning got ejected last night for using a racial slur.

    He’s been suspended for 5 games.

    Manning has apologized and taken responsibility. Keith Gretzky put out a statement as well – links to both below:

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1219719475055878145/photo/1

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1219720107686944768/photo/1

  45. pts2pndr says:

    Just read it on facebook and it made my day!

  46. Lowetide says:

    Thanks OP for the Howson update, valuable information there. Terrible about Manning.

  47. JOFA says:

    Would that be grounds for terminating his contract OP?

  48. pts2pndr says:

    For those that might be contemplating returning to Penticton for the Young Stars tournament this September jus a few thoughts or insight.

    The casino now is where the old wine info centre used to be. It includes a restaurant etc which is quite good. The downside is parking in the vicinity of the South Okanagan Event Center has become more limited.

    There is new hotel on Echardt ave, that is an easy 2-3 block walk due to open shortly.
    I will be glad to help you with questions to wit my local knowledge would be helpful.

  49. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Is McDavid’s knee 100%? They are putting the fear of Gord into me with every release here.

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    JOFA:
    Would that be grounds for terminating his contract OP?

    Looks like the league already doled out it’s punishment. His contract runs out in 3 months at least, good riddance.

  51. jm363561 says:

    Agree. Great posts today, so far.

    Great write up LT.

  52. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    pts2pndr:
    …wit my local knowledge would be helpful.

    – Brah – I’m down wit getting your knowledge

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    MustardTiger:
    Hey LT,

    Just wanted to say the Oil Can Podcast on the Athletic is tremendous!

    This is 100% true – road trip reports are great now that either DNB or Willis are with the team.

    For those that don’t subscribe to The Athletic – while they produce one “open” podcast per week, there is a second “subscriber only” podcast.

    Even more value for The Athletic subscription price.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: This is an interesting question, so I’ll be your answer monkey.

    5v5 GF% by month (too much work to include 3v3 and 4v4, and there are only a handful of goals so I’m ignoring it)All data va Naturalstattrick.com

    Oct
    Team (25-25) 50%
    McDavid On (17-7) 71%
    McDavid Off (8-18) 22%

    Nov
    Team (32-34) 48%
    McDavid On (16-16) 50%
    McDavid Off (16-18) 47%

    Dec
    Team (18-38) 32%
    McDavid On (9-15) 38%
    McDavid Off (9-23) 28%

    Jan
    Team (20-13) 61%
    McDavid On (6-4) 60%
    McDavid Off (14-9) 61%

    Season totals:
    Team (95-110) 46%
    McDavid On (48-42) 53%
    McDavid Off (47-68) 41%

    Thank you for the work.

    Now, who wants to analyze it beyond the “McDavid off at 61% = Stanley”?

  55. frjohnk says:

    After finding out what McDavid was faced with right after the injury, he should be a slam dunk for the Masterton trophy.

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: May get done in the next few days or next few weeks but he’s not going to UFA.

    Damn, I needed him to pick up some fence posts and a bag of nails.

  57. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk:
    After finding out what McDavid was faced with right after the injury, he should be a bardownski for the Masterton trophy.

    Totally pretentious FIFY 😉

  58. Jethro Tull says:

    I hope Manning is given the opportunity to learn from this.

  59. LMHF#1 says:

    Of all the firing offences that Chiarelli committed (and there were boatloads right from the very start), the Manning acquisition certainly stands out among the top few. Not so much from the hockey impact, but from the “I have zero clue what I am doing” indication.

    The only saving grace for me was making Caggiula go away…but acquiring the worst player in the league, who intentionally injured your star player, and had already peaked is something that even the least knowledgeable hockey fan would not have contemplated.

  60. vinotintazo says:

    I find the release of the McDavid’s injury details to have an odd timing, right before we face the flames twice in 3 days. I hope the whole team hates them.

  61. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is an interesting question, so I’ll be your answer monkey.

    5v5 GF% by month (too much work to include 3v3 and 4v4, and there are only a handful of goals so I’m ignoring it)All data va Naturalstattrick.com

    Oct
    Team (25-25) 50%
    McDavid On (17-7) 71%
    McDavid Off (8-18) 22%

    Nov
    Team (32-34) 48%
    McDavid On (16-16) 50%
    McDavid Off (16-18) 47%

    Dec
    Team (18-38) 32%
    McDavid On (9-15) 38%
    McDavid Off (9-23) 28%

    Jan
    Team (20-13) 61%
    McDavid On (6-4) 60%
    McDavid Off (14-9) 61%

    Season totals:
    Team (95-110) 46%
    McDavid On (48-42) 53%
    McDavid Off (47-68) 41%

    It was the bottom 6 rather than the bottom 9 that had the power outage in October. The Nuge numbers from October actually really prop up the “McDavid Off” total that month (Ha! prop up a 22%GF!)

    With McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge Off by month:

    Oct
    Goals 1-12 (7.7%)
    Shots 45.5%
    SH% 1.11
    SV% 88.9
    PDO .900

    Nov
    Goals 12-12 (50.0%)
    Shots 50.4%
    SH% 8.63
    SV% 91.2
    PDO .999

    Dec
    Goals 6-7 (46%)
    Shots 53.9%
    SH% 5.36
    SV% 92.7
    PDO .981

    Jan
    Goals 7-7 (50.0%)
    Shots 41.8%
    SH% 15.22
    SV% 89.1
    PDO 1.043

    Full Season Totals
    Goals 26-38 (40.6%) 1.72GF/60-2.51GA/60
    Shots 48.9%
    SH% 6.72
    SV% 90.6
    PDO .973

    Totals since Nov 1st
    Goals 25-26 (49.0%) 2.27GF/60-2.36GA/60 (and this is still with 35% OZ starts)
    Shots 50.0%
    SH% 8.42
    SV% 91.2
    PDO .997

    So since Nov 1st the Oilers bottom 6 has been essentially break even. With a normal PDO. Wow.

    But is it real? The Oilers bottom 6 has been unable to score at all since the team last made the playoffs. Holland did bring in new personnel….

    Looking at previous years:

    2017-18
    Goals 35-55 (38.9%) 1.40-2.20
    Shots 48.3%
    SH% 4.85
    SV% 92.9
    PDO .977

    2018-19
    Goals 26-45 (36.6%) 1.12-1.93
    Shots 50.3%
    SH% 3.97
    SV% 93.0
    PDO .970

    Shooting % below 5 both years.

    I’m not sure this curse of the Oilers depth players being unable to score is fixed, but the results for the last few months sure are encouraging.

    I *think some improvement is real but I also wouldn’t bet on the Oilers bottom 6 shooting 8.4% with a .997 PDO going forward.

  62. geowal says:

    Definitely going to set the PVR for this documentary.

  63. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Great, thanks for the updates.

    Hopefully they can now terminate Manning’s contract.

  64. dustrock says:

    LMHF#1:
    Of all the firing offences that Chiarelli committed (and there were boatloads right from the very start), the Manning acquisition certainly stands out among the top few. Not so much from the hockey impact, but from the “I have zero clue what I am doing” indication.

    The only saving grace for me was making Caggiula go away…but acquiring the worst player in the league, who intentionally injured your star player, and had already peaked is something that even the least knowledgeable hockey fan would not have contemplated.

    I’ve seen a lot of dumb trades in my time, I had never seen anything like this.

    This was where my suspicion that Chiarelli was a plant by Jacobs to sink the Oilers was confirmed.

  65. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Shane:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    You know, I’ve been wondering about this McDavidoff guy… seems he’s been a whipping boy around here for awhile. I figured it was because he was Russian or something. But looking at WGs numbers I see he’s been terribly inconsistent so I understand the concern.

    Hopefully January McDavidoff is closer to the real McDavidoff than October McDavidoff was…

    Go McDavidoff!!

    McDavidoff is McDavid’s Russian doppelganger (in Russia they spell it McDavidov). however you spell it, he does need to pick up his socks!

  66. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Hopefully in the real world for his post-hockey life. No doubt this is his last year as a professional (AHL/NHL) hockey player …

  67. ohhell says:

    Agreed. Thanks OP! Your contributions to the conversation are simply excellent. Much appreciated.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Blame the Oilers! Not enough losses!

    Give him a few cocktails before the interview next time.

  69. LadiesloveSmid says:

    As much flak as I give the oilers, I can’t believe the leafs aren’t in a playoff spot as of today.

    Muzzin, Barrie UFAs after this season. You wonder what their D looks like going into next season. Andersen UFA in 2021.

  70. OilClog says:

    Whoever knew that Holland had some secret Russian whispers left stored away for a good time, Mcdavidov is truly a bridge builder.

  71. OilClog says:

    Hopefully has a Larsson, Adam. They’ll probably take a stab at pulling Drew out of LA.

  72. OilClog says:

    St. Blues should have to trade the Oilers Perron for Manning, buy him a house around Walnut Park, let Pete have sleep overs.

  73. SwedishPoster says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the recap. I hope on the radar means they are very much looking to sign Berglund. No guarantee he’s an NHLer in the making but I really want to see what he can do in a new setting and on NA ice. There’s something about his game that sets off my scouting senses. I think his upside could be surprisingly high but at the very least he should be a quality top 4 D in the AHL.

    Broberg is back in the top 6 the last three games so he sat out one game, was the 7th D for one and then worked himself back into the top 6 by game three post the WJCs which is impressive in itself, as I’ve mentioned before Skellefteå carries what’s probably the deepest D group in the SHL. He’s also back playing with Berglund so BroBerglund is once again a thing and they’ve been pretty strong. The team lost today 4-0 but BroBerglund at least were even. Still no PP for Broberg but the team has had some issues with the man advantage for the last few so for the first time this season there’s at least an opening. Still don’t think he’ll get a shot unless the struggles continue for a while, it’s pretty clear they want him to focus on his 5v5 game, but here’s to hoping.

    On the WJCs. I think he was fine. The coach explicitly said he used Broberg’s pairing as a shutdown pair and gave them the toughest match ups and zone starts. Sweden was also very much a one line team with some Raymond-Holtz magic on occasion and Broberg barely got any time with any of those two lines. With that in mind I think he did well though I still he could have taken charge more in the offensive end, he’s not been playing with his early season confidence the last two months or so.

    A couple of weekends ago Skellefteå was on the match of the week for the SHL and pre-game one of the experts, a former D-man/coach, had a fun interview with Broberg where the interview was like a video coach session where they talked about his game and his mindset in different situations, he came off as being very attentive to what the expert/coach was saying and seemed to have a good head for the game from this perspective which matches what you hear from his former and current coaches.
    They also looked closer at his skating, his edges are something else I tell you, and they also compared his crossovers to ”normal” players and he can generate so much power it’s nuts. Once his leg strength catches up fully he’ll be able to absolutely explode out of the gates when he starts his crosses. Lordy.
    On another note he looks like he’s still growing, I know he grew like an inch between the combine and development camp from 6’3 to 6’4 and to me he looks taller now than at the start of the season. If this isn’t just me seeing things, which let’s be fair is fairly likely, he might end up 6’5 or beyond.

    Two funny tidbits from that interview, he grew up in a part of Sweden called ”the whiny belt” because the dialect sounds like you’re whining all the time and he still has that dialect but after just a few months in Skellefteå he’s started to pick up the local dialect which is pretty distinct as well, if this continues it could be an interesting end result. He might have to speak english with Klef and the rest of the swedes for them to understand.
    Also the expert, Johan Tornberg, used to coach Broberg’s former club Örebro’s mens team three years ago, he said that one day they had been short a D man in practice and a 14-15 year old kid from the junior team who was at the rink as an intern for a school thing had his gear with him and could jump in. That kid was Broberg.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    theDjdj: Thank you, OP. Your commitment to sharing information and discussion is always appreciated by me. It’s difficult staying on top of everything on the other side of the world so your handy little dissections help me a lot.

    +1. I’m only partway around the globe but I also find it difficult to keep in touch with the pulse in Edmonton.

  75. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Is McDavid’s knee 100%? They are putting the fear of Gord into me with every release here.

    He’s skating circles around everybody and leading the league once again – after a summer of rehab. I can’t wait to see him next year after a healthy summer of full tilt training.

  76. pts2pndr says:

    I will work on some things for those interested

  77. Reja says:

    Jethro Tull:
    I hope Manning is given the opportunity to learn from this.

    After taking a hundred grand hit what do you think.

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    Excellent – thanks!

  79. Jethro Tull says:

    Not sure what you mean.

  80. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: With McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge Off by month:

    Totals since Nov 1st
    Goals 25-26 (49.0%) 2.27GF/60-2.36GA/60 (and this is still with 35% OZ starts)
    Shots 50.0%
    SH% 8.42
    SV% 91.2
    PDO .997

    So since Nov 1st the Oilers bottom 6 has been essentially break even. With a normal PDO. Wow.

    Very, very nice breakout, thanks for doing this. It shows why the team is suddenly successful – they now have a 2nd line that’s outscoring and a bottom-6 that’s not giving anything back. I believe it’s called Firing On All Cylinders. In any case, if it continues, this team could go on a massive run. I have a feeling one of the Pacific teams is going to walk away from the pack, why not us?

  81. Harpers Hair says:

    Larry Walker is going to Cooperstown!

    Expos win!

  82. defmn says:

    pts2pndr:

    There is new hotel on Echardt ave, that is an easy 2-3 block walk due to open shortly.
    I will be glad to help you with questions to wit my local knowledge would be helpful.

    Thanks for this. Can you tell me the name of the new hotel or have they announced it yet.

    And thanks to OP for the recap of the Howson interview.

  83. Todd Macallan says:

    Great news for Canada, and in particular our host. Likely not choosing to go in with the Expos hat, but man would that be cool.

  84. Harpers Hair says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Great news for Canada, and in particular our host. Likely not choosing to go in with the Expos hat, but man would that be cool.

    Only the second Canadian to make the Hall of Fame after Ferguson Jenkins.

    Walker was actually a hockey goalie in Maple Ridge before taking up baseball later in his his youth.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I caught a bit of that chat.Spec was talking a bit about trade targets, he was cooling on the idea of the Oilers getting Pageau, mainly due to their being more teams willing to pay higher than what he thinks Holland would be comfortable with.

    I’d agree with that stance.I like Pageau, but also understand that he’s on a bit of a heater this year.If he’s a rental then we probably can’t afford what the ask is going to be, or what one of the other competitors can offer.

    If Holland is seriously looking for a 3C upgrade, I would prefer to look at someone like Stall who is signed for one more year which is perfect to bridge the gap for McLeod’s development.

    Pageau scares me because due to this season being so far above historical norms (as far as production) – Renting is not an option and acquiring to sign would need term and big dollars (based off a heater).

    Staal would be price and term controlled and, to me, we can be more assured of what he would bring next season (subject to cliff falling).

  86. Bulging Twine says:

    Great comeback by the Panthers late last night over the Wild.
    Scored at 15:52 to tie and 19:54 for the win.

  87. Darth Tu says:

    JOFA,

    Imagine the mess the NHLPA would get themselves into if the Oilers did try to terminate his contract.

  88. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: If Holland is seriously looking for a 3C upgrade, I would prefer to look at someone like Stall who is signed for one more year which is perfect to bridge the gap for McLeod’s development.

    Pageau scares me because due to this season being so far above historical norms (as far as production) – Renting is not an option and acquiring to sign would need term and big dollars (based off a heater).

    Staal would be price and term controlled and, to me, we can be more assured of what he would bring next season (subject to cliff falling).

    Stall would likely take a first round pick to pry out of Minnesota.

    He’s their leading scorer.

  89. Todd Macallan says:

    I just heard that, he was cut twice for the Pats in training camp.

  90. jm363561 says:

    Just excellent. I wish I could write Swedish like you write English. Hmmm. Thinking about it I wish I could write English like you!

  91. unca miltie says:

    just got a chance to look at this thread. Thanks for your comment. As far at the tip is concerned, I had my last drink of alcohol over 40 years ago and the world is a better place for it. Finally, I have been to two Condor games and one Oiler game this year. The team I cheered for lost all three games. Not sure OEG will let me back.

  92. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Very, very nice breakout, thanks for doing this. It shows why the team is suddenly successful – they now have a 2nd line that’s outscoring and a bottom-6 that’s not giving anything back. I believe it’s called Firing On All Cylinders. In any case, if it continues, this team could go on a massive run. I have a feeling one of the Pacific teams is going to walk away from the pack, why not us?

    Thanks. And yes, the team should be in a really nice position if this continues.

  93. Bulging Twine says:

    That’s great news on Benning

  94. flea says:

    Crazy news coming out now with the release of the McDavid documentary. McDavid would have lost this entire season, as well as possibly never skated the same again had he opted for reconstructive surgery.

    https://www.tsn.ca/ryan-rishaug-connor-mcdavid-saved-season-by-opting-for-rehab-over-surgery-1.1430869

    This is wild stuff. For the Oilers to be sitting here at the ASG in a playoff spot makes it even more interesting.

    I’m not usually a fan of hockey docs (they tend to be mostly puff pieces) but this one is looking like a must watch.

  95. frjohnk says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Larry Walker is going to Cooperstown!

    Expos win!

    Fantastic

  96. Bulging Twine says:

    January McDavid off 61%! Yes!

  97. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Maybe I’m wrong here, but I’m a little leery of trading for Staal, largely due to age. I get that the cliff looms a little later for the skilled players, but it’s still coming.

    HH suggests that Min would want a 1st for him, that’s probably true, I’m not sure I want to give up a first this year. Would a second and a prospect be enough to get it done? Is that still an overpay?

  98. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: If Holland is seriously looking for a 3C upgrade, I would prefer to look at someone like Stall who is signed for one more year which is perfect to bridge the gap for McLeod’s development.

    Pageau scares me because due to this season being so far above historical norms (as far as production) – Renting is not an option and acquiring to sign would need term and big dollars (based off a heater).

    Staal would be price and term controlled and, to me, we can be more assured of what he would bring next season (subject to cliff falling).

    If one is getting Staal, he is more likely to become first line RW.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thank you so much for the report – love it.

    As far as signing Berglund, Howson’s tone and words were clearly more “commital” than when talking about Niemeläinen – he used the term “on the radar” with respect to both but clearly one is a higher-rated prospect.

  100. Yeti says:

    ArmchairGM:
    For the first time in my life I’ll be cheering for the Boston Bruins tonight. And when the night is over, never again. It’s a one-night stand.

    Careful, you might develop a taste for it. I think deep down you like that fetish stuff.

  101. Bulging Twine says:

    Congrats on the sobriety!

  102. Bulging Twine says:

    Darth Tu:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I caught a bit of that chat.Spec was talking a bit about trade targets, he was cooling on the idea of the Oilers getting Pageau, mainly due to their being more teams willing to pay higher than what he thinks Holland would be comfortable with.

    I’d agree with that stance.I like Pageau, but also understand that he’s on a bit of a heater this year.If he’s a rental then we probably can’t afford what the ask is going to be, or what one of the other competitors can offer.

    It’s feeling like Holland won’t trade his first rounder. I am happy about that!

  103. Bulging Twine says:

    Thanks OP, I appreciate this in case I don’t have time for a listen.

    Niemelainen is interesting 6’6 that can skate, only 21….somebody will pick him up if we don’t sign him.

  104. jake70 says:

    ” I knew you’d call. Are they in last? ”

    Fantastic. Hilarious.

  105. Bulging Twine says:

    Thanks

  106. Bulging Twine says:

    People are killing it today! Great Post LT and contributions everyone! So informative

  107. pts2pndr says:

    They don’t have a name on it yet but will get back to you as soon as they do.

  108. Bulging Twine says:

    McDavid ON +30 in 16-17!

    Who were his linemates?!

    +17 Maroon 734:58 TOI together
    +13 Draisattl 676:54
    +10 Lucic 451:52
    +8 Eberle 403:28
    +6 Puljujarvi 84:01
    +3 Caggiula 67:25

  109. pts2pndr says:

    Just researched new hotel. It will be a Fairfield Marriott.

  110. Reja says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Not sure what you mean.

    I don’t think you get payed in the AHL if your suspended.

  111. Reja says:

    If the Jets lose tonight and tomorrow the heat will definitely be on to make a trade.

  112. Bulging Twine says:

    McDavid is only breaking even with Neal 7GF – 7GA
    They’ve played 195 minutes together.
    Could be time to find McDavid a new LWer

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Stall would likely take a first round pick to pry out of Minnesota.

    He’s their leading scorer.

    Perhaps, or perhaps not.

  114. Bulging Twine says:

    In terms of GF%

    Puljujarvi 80
    Caggiula 66.67
    Lucic 64.71
    Eberle 62.5
    Maroon 61.97
    Draisattl 59.42

  115. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Perhaps, or perhaps not.

    What would you suggest it might take for them to trade their leading scorer?

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Maybe I’m wrong here, but I’m a little leery of trading for Staal, largely due to age.I get that the cliff looms a little later for the skilled players, but it’s still coming.

    HH suggests that Min would want a 1st for him, that’s probably true, I’m not sure I want to give up a first this year.Would a second and a prospect be enough to get it done? Is that still an overpay?

    Yes, of course, there is some risk given his age but its only for one year and the cap hit isn’t egregious.

    His age with risk of decline is factor in negotiating acquisition cost and perhaps the Wild are amenable to making a move due to a desire to re-tool.

    I would not trade a 1st rounder straight up – if that’s what Minny wants, I would make that pick conditional on 2020/21 performance by Staal – a 2021 second rounder than converts to a 1st if Staal hits certain production targets.

    Maybe a deal can’t be worked out that makes sense but I think he’s worth talking to Guerin about.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whatever your or I, or anyone else on here, suggests or speculates, that’s all it is – we don’t know that it would cost a first rounder and my response was b/c you essentially stated that as fact.

  118. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, of course, there is some risk given his age but its only for one year and the cap hit isn’t egregious.

    His age with risk of decline is factor in negotiating acquisition cost and perhaps the Wild are amenable to making a move due to a desire to re-tool.

    I would not trade a 1st rounder straight up – if that’s what Minny wants, I would make that pick conditional on 2020/21 performance by Staal – a 2020 second rounder than converts to a 1st if Staal hits certain production targets.

    Maybe a deal can’t be worked out that makes sense but I think he’s worth talking to Guerin about.

    What would you add to that pick to get Minnesota’s attention?

    A second round pick won’t do it.

    And they don’t need defensemen.

  119. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Whatever your or I, or anyone else on here, suggests or speculates, that’s all it is – we don’t know that it would cost a first rounder and my response was b/c you essentially stated that as fact.

    Then why bother?

  120. Harpers Hair says:

    Justin Williams scored in his first game back with Carolina.

  121. Lowetide says:

    Bulging Twine:
    McDavid is only breaking even with Neal 7GF – 7GA
    They’ve played 195 minutes together.
    Could be time to find McDavid a new LWer

    I’d like to see Archibald there, maybe Benson too. If the current vets aren’t getting it done, give the kids a chance. Slats did.

  122. Bulging Twine says:

    Tippett has stated that he uses scoring chances as his go to stat.

    Here are Natural Stat Trick’s Scoring chances % with McDavid:

    Gagner 62.5 – 32.4 TOI with
    Nygard 56.6 – 53.9
    Neal 56.11 – 195.3
    Kassian 51.31 – 581.1
    Archibald 50.85 – 70.2
    Russell 50 – 35.1
    Draisattl 46.28 – 523.6
    Chiasson 44.64 – 46.2

    some of these are pretty small sample sizes but perhaps this is why Neal is still on with McDavid

  123. Harpers Hair says:

    Vegas leading Boston 2-1 at the end of the second.

    Could move into first in the Pacific with a win.

  124. Jethro Tull says:

    Ok. But I hope he realizes it was wrong because it’s wrong and not because he misses pay day.

    Sounds like he was instantly remorseful. But then I don’t have to deal with it directly or indirectly every day.

  125. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: I’d like to see Archibald there, maybe Benson too. If the current vets aren’t getting it done, give the kids a chance. Slats did.

    I agree. It’s about who can do the job. I think Neal is pretty much a PP specialist at this point.

    I hope he gets hot again and pops 30. Some teams might need what he’s still good at and less so a strong 5v5 player.

    I think the oilers need more strong 5v5 types and less ‘specialists’.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    I knew that Nuge had been on fire lately (I think its 13 or 14 points and plus 9 in the 8 games since the Leon/Connor split) but Archie, of all people, has 10 points in his last 12 games – that’s on top of the plus PK and responsibility. Go Archie!

  127. jtblack says:

    WPG has won 5 of their last 20 ….

    I think they are removing themselves from the playoffs, while CHI is entering the equation …

    WE WAIT

  128. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I so want to watch the Connor doc. But it sounds like it’ll bring out the 80s Messier side of my hockey brain I try to keep minimized. Elbow to the chops for Mr Gio as he comes around the net.

    And it certainly won’t help my disgust at the league for being biased over decades against our Oilers and letting hacks regardless of ability ruin the game for everyone by hurting the best players.

    And increase my nervousness at how Connor plays.

    I also remain amazed that Chia had the audacity to trade for Manning, on any level you can think about it.

  129. Bulging Twine says:

    This is supposed to be a very deep draft.

    For me, the potential of the first rounder combined with the years of control of the player chosen are worth more than a year and a half of 35 year old Staal.

    Remember also, Friedman has recently stated that Staal hated being a “rental” with the NYR and will have some say on whether he wants to be again.

    I would hope that the first rounder wouldn’t be included in any conditions for Staal.

  130. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I knew that Nuge had been on fire lately (I think its 13 or 14 points and plus 9 in the 8 games since the Leon/Connor split) but Archie, of all people, has 10 points in his last 12 games – that’s on top of the plus PK and responsibility.Go Archie!

    I expect Archie back. I was thinking Haas might be as well and Nygard not. On the latter two I am starting to think Nygard will be back because of his speed (which I also think Holland likes about Archie).

    It will be interesting to see what he does as we start to get a read on Kenny as Oilers GM.

    Edit
    Haas also has speed but I’m not sure he’s impressing them overall. Smart yes, rounded enough for 3C or to displace Sheahan I’m not sure.

  131. norm_klassen says:

    3-2 Boston 4 :14 left
    What magic trick will those Golden Pasaykas bust out tonight?

  132. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Vegas leading Boston 2-1 at the end of the second.

    Could move into first in the Pacific with a win.

    Thanks for putting the curse on Vegas again.

  133. Bulging Twine says:

    Oh interesting, switch Archie over to the left. Worth a shot, they’ve certainly been gold together thus far.

    This we know for sure: it’s a travesty to drag down McDavid. Can’t happen. Neal’s only saving grace is their scoring chance #’s are pretty good. Gotta cash in though.

    I too would really like to see Benson given a shot to play with McDavid when and if he gets called up. Pretty sure he has the head to play with him if he doesn’t get the starstruck wobble. And McDavid has actually been good with some ‘slower’ type players before.
    I will want to see Benson’s cycle game at the NHL level. He’s excelled in the AHL at it with Marody and Currie. If he can develop some cycle/positioning chemistry with Kassian and McDavid….wooot

  134. Bulging Twine says:

    Messier’s elbows were absolutely vicious!
    Remember McCoun? Hooo man

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    BOS squeaks out a regulation victory over VEG – great stuff.

    CAR puts the boots to WIN in regulation – solid stuff.

    FLA and CHI scoreless – type of stuff TBD.

  136. Bulging Twine says:

    Or the Russian in the summit series

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    See, you can tell he’s not a good Canadian Boy!!!

  138. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Stall would likely take a first round pick to pry out of Minnesota.

    He’s their leading scorer.

    If you think a 35 year-old Stall will fetch a mid to late 1st rounder I want to trade with you.

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Litke 94: Good lord was December ugly. Seriously amazing that the Oilers were able to recover in January like they have.

    If we can come in somewhere between January and November numbers for the remainder of the season, things will be looking good for a couple of ICE District watch parties in April.

    The difference?

    Tippett said he finally had some time to practice.

    Boy he’s good.

    Splitting up 97 and 29 and giving 29 the best linemates to help him AND getting 97 and 29 to accept it is everything.

    Spec asked the question on the road trip to the EC:

    Spec: “do Connor and Leon accept playing apart?”

    Tippett: “they accept winning”

    That.

    Is.

    Everything.

    To this team.

    Now it’s up to Holland to get 97 at least one above average winger so he can clock in +60% GF on a regular basis.

  140. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The difference?

    Tippett said he finally had some time to practice.

    Boy he’s good.

    Been loving that guy.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    FLA now takes a 2-0 lead on CHI – more solid stuff.

  142. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: What would you suggest it might take for them to trade their leading scorer?

    Their leading scorer, a 2019-20 All-star (his SIXTH selection IIRC), and on a very team-friendly contract as Staal considers Minny his “home team” as a Thunder Bay Boy… Has a 10 team no-trade.

    There may even have been a handshake deal on letting him play till retirement there to get the contract the Wild did, but that’s sheer speculation on my part.

    Regardless, it will take an overpay to pry him out of Minny—IF the Oil are somehow not on his NTC. Not a good use of assets.

    Considering he has term on that wicked deal, he could very easily cost more than a Pageau rental.

    Love me some Eric Staal–was one of the first to push his name forward–but I’ve come to realize it’s a pipe dream.

    now… BRING ME TYLER ENNIS!!!

    Because that’s the aisle Holland is going to be shopping in.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bulging Twine:
    This is supposed to be a very deep draft.

    For me, the potential of the first rounder combined with the years of control of the player chosen are worth more than a year and a half of 35 year old Staal.

    Remember also, Friedman has recently stated that Staal hated being a “rental” with the NYR and will have some say on whether he wants to be again.

    I would hope that the first rounder wouldn’t be included in any conditions for Staal.

    Sorry, I mistyped and meant to say 2021 2nd rounder that could convert to a 2021 1st rounder.

    It would have to be draft 2021 if its based on Staal’s performance next season.

    Also, it wouldn’t be a rental as it would be for the rest of this year plus next year.

    Of course, that doesn’t mean he’d waive for the Oilers.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Make that 3-0 FLA over CHI near the end of the 2nd.

  145. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Scott Howson:

    Thanks for passing this on!

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: What would you add to that pick to get Minnesota’s attention?

    A second round pick won’t do it.

    And they don’t need defensemen.

    You don’t know that wouldn’t get their attention – it very well may considering it could become a 1st rounder – a performance based condition could make sense – if he hits the targets in 2020/21, then its worth a first rounder, if not, then it was worth the 2nd.

    The conditional pick and Puljujarvi could very well get their attention – two good young assets to help a retool for an aging veteran not part of future plans.

  147. jp says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Amazing updates and insight. Thank you so much!!

  148. godot10 says:

    I’m sure JoeLQ went The FULL ODELL on the bulletin board in the lockerroom today.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Oh interesting, switch Archie over to the left.Worth a shot, they’ve certainly been gold together thus far.

    This we know for sure:it’s a travesty to drag down McDavid.Can’t happen.Neal’s only saving grace is their scoring chance #’s are pretty good.Gotta cash in though.

    I too would really like to see Benson given a shot to play with McDavid when and if he gets called up.Pretty sure he has the head to play with him if he doesn’t get the starstruck wobble.And McDavid has actually been good with some ‘slower’ type players before.
    I will want to see Benson’s cycle game at the NHL level.He’s excelled in the AHL at it with Marody and Currie.If he can develop some cycle/positioning chemistry with Kassian and McDavid….wooot

    That would be quite the responsibility for a player that has never played an NHL game.

    To be placed on a line expected to score nightly and needed to outscore the opposition to win, to face the opposition’s toughest players and to play 17-18 minutes of 5 on 5 – in middle of a playoff spot run where every point is important.

    I don’t see Tip doing it.

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the recap. I hope on the radar means they are very much looking to sign Berglund. No guarantee he’s an NHLer in the making but I really want to see what he can do in a new setting and on NA ice. There’s something about his game that sets off my scouting senses. I think his upside could be surprisingly high but at the very least he should be a quality top 4 D in the AHL.

    Broberg is back in the top 6 the last three games so he sat out one game, was the 7th D for one and then worked himself back into the top 6 by game three post the WJCs which is impressive in itself, as I’ve mentioned before Skellefteå carries what’s probably the deepest D group in the SHL. He’s also back playing with Berglund so BroBerglund is once again a thing and they’ve been pretty strong. The team lost today 4-0 but BroBerglund at least were even. Still no PP for Broberg but the team has had some issues with the man advantage for the last few so for the first time this season there’s at least an opening. Still don’t think he’ll get a shot unless the struggles continue for a while, it’s pretty clear they want him to focus on his 5v5 game, but here’s to hoping.

    On the WJCs. I think he was fine. The coach explicitly said he used Broberg’s pairing as a shutdown pair and gave them the toughest match ups and zone starts. Sweden was also very much a one line team with some Raymond-Holtz magic on occasion and Broberg barely got any time with any of those two lines. With that in mind I think he did well though I still he could have taken charge more in the offensive end, he’s not been playing with his early season confidence the last two months or so.

    A couple of weekends ago Skellefteå was on the match of the week for the SHL and pre-game one of the experts, a former D-man/coach, had a fun interview with Broberg where the interview was like a video coach session where they talked about his game and his mindset in different situations, he cameoff as being very attentive to what the expert/coach was saying and seemed to have a good head for the game from this perspective which matches what you hear from his former and current coaches.
    They also looked closer at his skating, his edges are something else I tell you, and they also compared his crossovers to ”normal” players and he can generate so much power it’s nuts. Once his leg strength catches up fully he’ll be able to absolutely explode out of the gates when he starts his crosses. Lordy.
    On another note he looks like he’s still growing, I know he grew like an inch between the combine and development camp from 6’3 to 6’4 and to me he looks taller now than at the start of the season. If this isn’t just me seeing things, which let’s be fair is fairly likely, he might end up 6’5 or beyond.

    Two funny tidbits from that interview, he grew up in a part of Sweden called ”the whiny belt” because the dialect sounds like you’re whining all the time and he still has that dialect but after just a few months in Skellefteå he’s started to pick up the local dialect which is pretty distinct as well, if this continues it could be an interesting end result. He might have to speak english with Klef and the rest of the swedes for them to understand.
    Also the expert, Johan Tornberg, used to coach Broberg’s former club Örebro’s mens team three years ago, he said that one day they had been short a D man in practice and a 14-15 year old kid from the junior team who was at the rink as an intern for a school thing had his gear with him and could jump in. That kid was Broberg.

    Love me some SP!!!

    So, so valuable.

  151. Dicky94 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Can JP still play this year in the NHL?

  152. Bulging Twine says:

    ah

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Thanks WG – excellent info! Can I ask how exactly you got this out of NST? Did you pull the numbers manually or is there some setting that I haven’t found yet that gives you this easily? I tried the “Line Tool” but it won’t let you isolate only one player…

    1) Open “Players->Individual” and then set the “More Filters” to the team and date range to get the player data.

    2) Open “Team” then set “More Filters” to your date range.

    3) Get a #2 HB pencil and some paper. Sharpen aforementioned pencil.

    4) Take your socks off OR get a calculator

    5) ???????

    6) STANLEY!!!

    If you’re doing straight on/off for one player this is easiest. There is also a way to do it with their “line tool” if you can find a player to use who played next to no time, but that’s adds complication for no reason if you’re just doing one ON/OFF.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dicky94:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Can JP still play this year in the NHL?

    No.

    Had to be on an NHL roster Dec 1/2019 or close iirc.

  155. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hawks with a big goal to pull within two before the end of the second by Hoffman with the back-breaker, restoring the 3-goal lead with less than a minute left in the 2nd.

    4-1 FLA after two.

  156. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thank you for the work.

    Now, who wants to analyze it beyond the “McDavid off at 61% = Stanley”?

    They could even win a Stanley with Smith at that rate.

  157. jp says:

    godot10: If one is getting Staal, he is more likely to become first line RW.

    This type of thing applies to most potential 3C’s the Oilers might acquire (and equally likely to be 1L, 2R, etc as it is 1R of course).

  158. Dicky94 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks. For some reason I thought he could play after the deadline.

  159. geowal says:

    Great scoreboard tonight all around. Vegas loss. Jets loss. Chicago on the way.

  160. 90s fan says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Like Selanne in ’06, but crazier!

  161. Darth Tu says:

    Let’s hope the Panthers keep this up. On the tail end of a back to back

  162. 90s fan says:

    frjohnk,

    Like Selanne in 06 but crazier.

  163. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: You don’t know that wouldn’t get their attention – it very well may considering it could become a 1st rounder – a performance based condition could make sense – if he hits the targets in 2020/21, then its worth a first rounder, if not, then it was worth the 2nd.

    The conditional pick and Puljujarvi could very well get their attention – two good young assets to help a retool for an aging veteran not part of future plans.

    Now we’re into HF Boards territory.

    I’m out.

  164. jp says:

    It’s pretty amazing how rough a go of it Draisaitl (and to a lesser extend McDavid) had of it for a month or so there. And still managed to remain 1-2 in scoring.

    FWIW McDavid with Draisaitl in the previous 3 years combined had 53.1% SCF (and 57.6 GF%). They’ve been very good historically.

  165. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine:
    McDavid is only breaking even with Neal 7GF – 7GA
    They’ve played 195 minutes together.
    Could be time to find McDavid a new LWer

    Look up Neal-Kassian and Neal- Archibald with McDavid. Those trios just seem to work.

  166. Dicky94 says:

    Bulging Twine,

    Would like to see the Oil trade for Miles Wood before the next Flames game. Him and Kassian would be fun to watch on McDavid’s wing. Might be the fastest line in the league. Hopefully pry Roslovic or Perrault out of the Peg for 3rd line center.

  167. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Ken Holland instrumental in brining back the Young Stars tournament.

    https://theathletic.com/1551476/2020/01/21/inside-how-okanagan-boy-ken-holland-helped-bring-back-the-penticton-young-stars-tournament/

    Great stuff. Always a favorite of mine.

  168. duct tape and foil says:

    Bennett for JP makes sense to me. Both #4 picks, both disappointments, both need a change of scenery. Both teams could use a forward. Only problem is trading with Calgary and JP is no use this season. Might be a summer trade if Bennett is still with the Flames. A young left shooting LW/C who is a few years from UFA works for me.

  169. Bulging Twine says:

    OriginalPouzar: That would be quite the responsibility for a player that has never played an NHL game.

    To be placed on a line expected to score nightly and needed to outscore the opposition to win, to face the opposition’s toughest players and to play 17-18 minutes of 5 on 5 – in middle of a playoff spot run where every point is important.

    I don’t see Tip doing it.

    hmm perhaps not.

    If the Neal McDavid combo continues to only play even hockey here are the other options for his LW:

    Nygard
    Khaira
    Benson
    and Right shooting:
    Archibald
    Chiasson
    Gagner
    Russell

    He might be worth a look see

    edit: as in, there’s not a lot of top notch options

    edit 2: keeping the second line intact obviously

  170. Bulging Twine says:

    wiil do thx

  171. ArmchairGM says:

    Forget spending assets on a 35-year-old Eric Staal. There are several good rental / UFA centers available for much lower asset cost that will help.

    For instance, just looking at the Wild – Mikko Koivu has far fewer points but has a positive goal differential (Staal does not) while facing Elites slightly more often with poorer linemates. He’s a UFA this coming summer and wouldn’t cost nearly as much as Staal.

    Erickson Ek does the heavy lifting on that team and is just 22 – if you’re suggesting trading high pick + prospect that’s the guy to target, not Staal.

  172. Bulging Twine says:

    Could be like a Jake Guentzel call up – alongside Crosby

  173. Bulging Twine says:

    Another PP for Hawks 5 minutes left 4-2

  174. Bulging Twine says:

    Penalty killed but Kane scores with 1:15 left

  175. flea says:

    I heard Friedman mention that Staal hated his one rental experience, and it’s unlikely Minnesota trades him.

    Even if they do, gotta think the Oil are on his 10 team no trade list.

    Think there are more realistic targets than Staal for the Oilers. Bonino would be perfect but expensive.

  176. Bulging Twine says:

    Hawks lose

    perfect night for Oilers

  177. Bulging Twine says:

    Totally. You know he wanted that one

  178. gogliano says:

    3/3 tonight.

    Oilers have 12 games prior to trade deadline. Even if they have a rough 12 game stretch they’d probably still be in the race. Have to think we’re officially buyers, not sellers, for the first time in forever.

  179. Bulging Twine says:

    Ya, I haven’t seen just December’s #’s but it must have been quite bad to skewer their yearly totals together.

    It seems to have worked out for the better as January indications are there are two (or possibly more) solid lines now.

  180. Bulging Twine says:

    I don’t know much about Wood. He’s definitely been mentioned here before as a desired acquisition. Is he available?

  181. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hawks with a big goal to pull within two before the end of the second by Hoffman with the back-breaker, restoring the 3-goal lead with less than a minute left in the 2nd.

    4-1 FLA after two.

    PRONGER was in NHL network (sirius). in a nutshell, said FLA players wont get recognition they deserve until they win. And win consistently.

    He believed the team is starting to figure it out. But it sounded like mgmt and Coach Q have made it clear that only winning matters.

    FLA could be dangerous …..

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Can JP still play this year in the NHL?

    Sure can’t.

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Koivu – 36
    Parise – 35
    Stall – 35
    Zucker -28
    Sutter – 35
    Spurgeon – 30
    Dybnyk – 33

    Currently not in a playoff position.

    Bottom third of the league prospect system.

    Seems quite logical to start moving veteran pieces for futures.

  184. Bulging Twine says:

    Neal – Kassian – McDavid
    78:43 TOI together
    4 GF – 4 GA
    50%

    Neal – Archibald – McDavid
    55:13 TOI
    3 GF – 1 GA
    75%

  185. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The difference?

    Tippett said he finally had some time to practice.

    Boy he’s good.

    Splitting up 97 and 29 and giving 29 the best linemates to help him AND getting 97 and 29 to accept it is everything.

    Spec asked the question on the road trip to the EC:

    Spec: “do Connor and Leon accept playing apart?”

    Tippett: “they accept winning”

    That.

    Is.

    Everything.

    To this team.

    Now it’s up to Holland to get 97 at least one above average winger so he can clock in +60% GF on a regular basis.

    I like this post.

  186. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Neal – Kassian – McDavid
    78:43 TOI together
    4 GF – 4 GA
    50%

    Neal – Archibald – McDavid
    55:13 TOI
    3 GF – 1 GA
    75%

    Look at this though:

    http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=log&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2019-10-02&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8475178&p3=8471707&p4=0&p5=0

    Two of the GA came when McDavid, Kassian and Neal just happened to be on the ice together due to late changes – Nov 6 vs Blues and Nov 12 vs Sharks. They weren’t a “line” at that point.

    Since they’ve been playing together on a regular basis (Dec 31 vs Rangers), they are

    72:39 TOI
    51.54 CF%
    54.43 SF%
    66.67 GF% (4 – 2)
    60.57 xGF% (3.01 – 1.96)
    56.52 HDCF% (13 – 10)

    Neal-McDavid, in games where they’ve played more than 3 shifts together, are 7-5 goals (58.33%). That McDavid could use an upgrade at LW there’s no doubt, but I don’t think it’s fair to say they’ve only been breaking even together as a line.

  187. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 1) Open“Players->Individual” and then set the “More Filters” to the team and date range to get the player data.

    2) Open “Team” then set “More Filters” to your date range.

    3) Get a #2 HB pencil and some paper.Sharpen aforementioned pencil.

    4) Take your socks off OR get a calculator

    5) ???????

    6) STANLEY!!!

    If you’re doing straight on/off for one player this is easiest.There is also a way to do it with their “line tool” if you can find a player to use who played next to no time, but that’s adds complication for no reason if you’re just doing one ON/OFF.

    So, manually. Got it. 🙂

  188. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    🙂

  189. Bulging Twine says:

    ArmchairGM: Look at this though:

    http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=log&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2019-10-02&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8475178&p3=8471707&p4=0&p5=0

    Two of the GA came when McDavid, Kassian and Neal just happened to be on the ice together due to late changes – Nov 6 vs Blues and Nov 12 vs Sharks. They weren’t a “line” at that point.

    Since they’ve been playing together on a regular basis (Dec 31 vs Rangers), they are

    72:39 TOI
    51.54 CF%
    54.43 SF%
    66.67 GF% (4 – 2)
    60.57 xGF% (3.01 – 1.96)
    56.52 HDCF% (13 – 10)

    Neal-McDavid, in games where they’ve played more than 3 shifts together, are 7-5 goals (58.33%). That McDavid could use an upgrade at LW there’s no doubt, but I don’t think it’s fair to say they’ve only been breaking even together as a line.

    Okay, very nice depth of analysis. Thank you.
    So we’ll monitor it a little longer.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca