There’s a lot we don’t know about Ken Holland, including his grades on Oilers, Condors and the organization’s distant bells. It’s safe to say we’re going to see more changes at the deadline, in spring and then summer, and that some of the names we anticipate remaining will be going, plus vice versa.
On a day when we’re many days from the next Oilers game, this is an ideal time to have that conversation. Consider it hockey’s version of a rain delay.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- New Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
- Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
A CONVERSATION
I knew you’d call. Are they in last? No, tied for second in the Pacific at this time.
Huh. Are they any good without McDavid? About the same as last year, the big difference this season is both special teams and in the last eight games something close to a second line.
How good is McDavid ON? Improved compared to last season. In 2018-19, McDavid was 77-75 (+2) on ice goal differential five on five. This year, he is 48-42 (+6). He was +20 in 2017-18, so there’s lot of room to grow once the club can find him top drawer linemates on both sides. McDavid’s career peak is 2016-17, when he was 77-47, +30.
How bad are things with McDavid off the ice? So far this year, Edmonton is 95-110 (-15) at five on five. Without McDavid, the number is 47-68 (-21) and Edmonton is getting 40.9 percent of the goal share without 97 on the ice. Last year, the Oilers were 69-103 (-34), delivering a goal share of 40.1.
Is there any good news? Yes. I think so. I like to use centers as an indicator for each line and five on five goal differential as the measure. Remember, this team has been unable to find two outscoring lines. As I see the numbers, the C’s are McDavid (48-42, +6), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22-20, +2), Riley Sheahan (12-22, -10), Gaetan Haas (11-13, -2), Leon Draisaitl (2-11, -9), Colby Cave (1-2, -1), Markus Granlund (0-1, -1). I got Leon’s number by isolating him from both Nuge and McDavid via NST.
You said there was good news. Yes, the last eight games saw coach Tippett run Nuge-Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto and they’re about 50 percent shot share and on a goal scoring heater. Early days, and we’ll have to see, but the line has great curb appeal. Two outscoring lines would be progress.
Who are McDavid’s linemates? At the beginning of the year it was Draisaitl-Kassian but the team checked down to Neal-Kassian and in the last two games Neal-Archibald. They’re going to need another winger of course, whether that comes at the deadline or this summer. Said player may also be on the farm or in Europe.
How is Tippett running the forwards versus elites? Among regulars, there are three men who have played 200+ minutes against elites (97, 29, Kassian). Nuge and Neal have played 185+ minutes, and Jujhar Khaira has played over 140 minutes (representing 31.1 percent of his overall time). This is all five on five and all courtesy PuckIQ. Among non-regulars, Colby Cave and Kailer Yamamoto spent 35 percent of overall time against elites. McDavid is the star in possession, rel and goal differential (22-12) against elites. Nuge and Khaira have struggled here relative to teammates.
When are they calling up Benson? That brings us back to Holland’s evaluation. It may differ from Peter Chiarelli, the scouting staff and scouting directors. After the AS break, we may see Benson recalled as a pre-deadline audition. If that doesn’t happen, he would emerge as a player who might grade out lower for Holland. My ‘reasonable expectations‘ before the season suggested Benson and Cooper Marody would be here by now. That may be a tell.
Who is Tippett trusting on defence? That might be the biggest story of the year, in terms of Oilers surprises. Four men are spending over 32 percent of their five on five time against elites: Ethan Bear (36.4), Darnell Nurse (36.0), Adam Larsson (34.1) and Oscar Klefbom (32.3) are being asked to play in the heart of the game. In terms of performance relative to teammates, the top performers are Nurse, Larsson and Bear (this is all through the miracle and wonder of Puck IQ).
What are the pairings? Again against elite, Nurse-Bear have played 270 minutes and have a DFF percentage (that’s smart-Corsi, with shots against graded on danger and range) of 45.60 and a ‘rel’ of +3.7. The pair has outscored elites 16-13, but I need to mention both defenders have played over 170 minutes with Connor McDavid.
Second pairing? Klefbom-Larsson have been together for 113 minutes, Larsson missing much of the first half of the season. They boast a 47.70 DFF and a ‘rel’ of +3.4. The duo has outscored elite opponents 5-2, Klefbom playing 90 minutes with McDavid and Larsson 26. I still think this is the top pairing, your mileage may vary.
Goaltending? It has held through the season’s first half but lots of wobble in between the good times. Mike Smith’s save percentages by month: .919, .895, .828, .924. That’s Jekyll and Hyde territory. Mikko Koskinen by month: .922, .918, .901 and .879. The January total is misleading for Koskinen it’s just one game.
Who are Ken Holland’s keepers? Well that’s the point, beyond McDavid and Draisaitl (who he referred to as ‘Connor and Leon’ in his interview with Mark Spector) we can’t say for certain. He values Philip Broberg and Raphael Lavoie because he was part of the team drafting in 2019. Does he put the same value on Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson as the previous admin? I will say yes, but one never knows about these things and Holland’s grades will differ from the past dollar sign placed on the muscle.
What the hell does that mean? It’s an old baseball book about scouting. Fabulous. It is here.
Who do you think Holland values? I think speed is a priority, so we’ll need to view prospects and acquisitions through that lens. I would guess that men like Joakim Nygard and Josh Archibald have a better chance of getting re-signed than slower folk. I would also guess that Bouchard will be valued by the organization because of his exceptional skill, but may be brought along slowly, beginning third pair in the NHL. As for Benson and Marody, same thing. Arrive, prove, move up. I don’t see an Ethan Bear emergence for any of them to be honest.
What a load of hooey. You asked my opinion and that’s it. I also think the speed issue could impact Adam Larsson’s future with the team.
Are you enjoying The Athletic? There are many awesome writers there, and you are there as well. I absolutely love it, proud to be writing with Jonathan and Daniel. It’s a dream come true, writing about hockey for a living. I remain humbled by the opportunity.
Do the Oilers make the playoffs? I think it’s too close to call. Dave Tippett is a helluva coach and the Oilers have the two best players in the race. I expect Holland will make a tweak or two and Benson, Lagesson and others can help when recalled from the farm. There’s a structure and pace to the pipeline again, feels like a measured response at the deadline is likely.
What grade would you give Holland and Tippett this year? Tippett’s an easy one, he is an “A” all day long in terms of roster management. Holland’s mark would be a little shy of that, I’ll say “B+”. Although his trade for James Neal alone earns him a passing grade, the drafting of Broberg and signing of Chiasson got flagged in examination. Some of that is we’ll see, but it’s part of the record and we’ll need to deal with it in the now.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we hit the ground running with fabulous guests. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join me to talk first half of the season (surprises good and bad) and we’ll chat recalls and trade deadline. Corey Graham will talk Oil Kings at 11, the club is playing the most exciting hockey since 2014 of late. John Horn is our tennis expert and he’ll chat Australian Open at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Okay, very nice depth of analysis. Thank you.
So we’ll monitor it a little longer.
So, manually. Got it. 🙂
🙂
Look at this though:
http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=log&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2019-10-02&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8475178&p3=8471707&p4=0&p5=0
Two of the GA came when McDavid, Kassian and Neal just happened to be on the ice together due to late changes – Nov 6 vs Blues and Nov 12 vs Sharks. They weren’t a “line” at that point.
Since they’ve been playing together on a regular basis (Dec 31 vs Rangers), they are
72:39 TOI
51.54 CF%
54.43 SF%
66.67 GF% (4 – 2)
60.57 xGF% (3.01 – 1.96)
56.52 HDCF% (13 – 10)
Neal-McDavid, in games where they’ve played more than 3 shifts together, are 7-5 goals (58.33%). That McDavid could use an upgrade at LW there’s no doubt, but I don’t think it’s fair to say they’ve only been breaking even together as a line.
I like this post.
Koivu – 36
Parise – 35
Stall – 35
Zucker -28
Sutter – 35
Spurgeon – 30
Dybnyk – 33
Currently not in a playoff position.
Bottom third of the league prospect system.
Seems quite logical to start moving veteran pieces for futures.
Sure can’t.
PRONGER was in NHL network (sirius). in a nutshell, said FLA players wont get recognition they deserve until they win. And win consistently.
He believed the team is starting to figure it out. But it sounded like mgmt and Coach Q have made it clear that only winning matters.
FLA could be dangerous …..
3/3 tonight.
Oilers have 12 games prior to trade deadline. Even if they have a rough 12 game stretch they’d probably still be in the race. Have to think we’re officially buyers, not sellers, for the first time in forever.
I heard Friedman mention that Staal hated his one rental experience, and it’s unlikely Minnesota trades him.
Even if they do, gotta think the Oil are on his 10 team no trade list.
Think there are more realistic targets than Staal for the Oilers. Bonino would be perfect but expensive.
Another PP for Hawks 5 minutes left 4-2
Penalty killed but Kane scores with 1:15 left
Hawks lose
perfect night for Oilers
Forget spending assets on a 35-year-old Eric Staal. There are several good rental / UFA centers available for much lower asset cost that will help.
For instance, just looking at the Wild – Mikko Koivu has far fewer points but has a positive goal differential (Staal does not) while facing Elites slightly more often with poorer linemates. He’s a UFA this coming summer and wouldn’t cost nearly as much as Staal.
Erickson Ek does the heavy lifting on that team and is just 22 – if you’re suggesting trading high pick + prospect that’s the guy to target, not Staal.
hmm perhaps not.
If the Neal McDavid combo continues to only play even hockey here are the other options for his LW:
Nygard
Khaira
Benson
and Right shooting:
Archibald
Chiasson
Gagner
Russell
He might be worth a look see
edit: as in, there’s not a lot of top notch options
edit 2: keeping the second line intact obviously
Could be like a Jake Guentzel call up – alongside Crosby
Bennett for JP makes sense to me. Both #4 picks, both disappointments, both need a change of scenery. Both teams could use a forward. Only problem is trading with Calgary and JP is no use this season. Might be a summer trade if Bennett is still with the Flames. A young left shooting LW/C who is a few years from UFA works for me.
Great stuff. Always a favorite of mine.
Bulging Twine,
Would like to see the Oil trade for Miles Wood before the next Flames game. Him and Kassian would be fun to watch on McDavid’s wing. Might be the fastest line in the league. Hopefully pry Roslovic or Perrault out of the Peg for 3rd line center.
I don’t know much about Wood. He’s definitely been mentioned here before as a desired acquisition. Is he available?
Look up Neal-Kassian and Neal- Archibald with McDavid. Those trios just seem to work.
wiil do thx
Neal – Kassian – McDavid
78:43 TOI together
4 GF – 4 GA
50%
Neal – Archibald – McDavid
55:13 TOI
3 GF – 1 GA
75%
Now we’re into HF Boards territory.
I’m out.
Jethro Tull,
Like Selanne in ’06, but crazier!
Woodguy v2.0,
Thanks. For some reason I thought he could play after the deadline.
This type of thing applies to most potential 3C’s the Oilers might acquire (and equally likely to be 1L, 2R, etc as it is 1R of course).
They could even win a Stanley with Smith at that rate.
Hawks with a big goal to pull within two before the end of the second by Hoffman with the back-breaker, restoring the 3-goal lead with less than a minute left in the 2nd.
4-1 FLA after two.
Great scoreboard tonight all around. Vegas loss. Jets loss. Chicago on the way.
Let’s hope the Panthers keep this up. On the tail end of a back to back
No.
Had to be on an NHL roster Dec 1/2019 or close iirc.
1) Open “Players->Individual” and then set the “More Filters” to the team and date range to get the player data.
2) Open “Team” then set “More Filters” to your date range.
3) Get a #2 HB pencil and some paper. Sharpen aforementioned pencil.
4) Take your socks off OR get a calculator
5) ???????
6) STANLEY!!!
If you’re doing straight on/off for one player this is easiest. There is also a way to do it with their “line tool” if you can find a player to use who played next to no time, but that’s adds complication for no reason if you’re just doing one ON/OFF.
OriginalPouzar,
Can JP still play this year in the NHL?
Love me some SP!!!
So, so valuable.
That would be quite the responsibility for a player that has never played an NHL game.
To be placed on a line expected to score nightly and needed to outscore the opposition to win, to face the opposition’s toughest players and to play 17-18 minutes of 5 on 5 – in middle of a playoff spot run where every point is important.
I don’t see Tip doing it.
SwedishPoster,
Amazing updates and insight. Thank you so much!!
You don’t know that wouldn’t get their attention – it very well may considering it could become a 1st rounder – a performance based condition could make sense – if he hits the targets in 2020/21, then its worth a first rounder, if not, then it was worth the 2nd.
The conditional pick and Puljujarvi could very well get their attention – two good young assets to help a retool for an aging veteran not part of future plans.
Thanks for passing this on!
Make that 3-0 FLA over CHI near the end of the 2nd.
Sorry, I mistyped and meant to say 2021 2nd rounder that could convert to a 2021 1st rounder.
It would have to be draft 2021 if its based on Staal’s performance next season.
Also, it wouldn’t be a rental as it would be for the rest of this year plus next year.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he’d waive for the Oilers.
ah
Their leading scorer, a 2019-20 All-star (his SIXTH selection IIRC), and on a very team-friendly contract as Staal considers Minny his “home team” as a Thunder Bay Boy… Has a 10 team no-trade.
There may even have been a handshake deal on letting him play till retirement there to get the contract the Wild did, but that’s sheer speculation on my part.
Regardless, it will take an overpay to pry him out of Minny—IF the Oil are somehow not on his NTC. Not a good use of assets.
Considering he has term on that wicked deal, he could very easily cost more than a Pageau rental.
Love me some Eric Staal–was one of the first to push his name forward–but I’ve come to realize it’s a pipe dream.
now… BRING ME TYLER ENNIS!!!
Because that’s the aisle Holland is going to be shopping in.
FLA now takes a 2-0 lead on CHI – more solid stuff.
I’m sure JoeLQ went The FULL ODELL on the bulletin board in the lockerroom today.
Totally. You know he wanted that one
Ken Holland instrumental in brining back the Young Stars tournament.
https://theathletic.com/1551476/2020/01/21/inside-how-okanagan-boy-ken-holland-helped-bring-back-the-penticton-young-stars-tournament/
Been loving that guy.
The difference?
Tippett said he finally had some time to practice.
Boy he’s good.
Splitting up 97 and 29 and giving 29 the best linemates to help him AND getting 97 and 29 to accept it is everything.
Spec asked the question on the road trip to the EC:
Spec: “do Connor and Leon accept playing apart?”
Tippett: “they accept winning”
That.
Is.
Everything.
To this team.
Now it’s up to Holland to get 97 at least one above average winger so he can clock in +60% GF on a regular basis.
If you think a 35 year-old Stall will fetch a mid to late 1st rounder I want to trade with you.
BOS squeaks out a regulation victory over VEG – great stuff.
CAR puts the boots to WIN in regulation – solid stuff.
FLA and CHI scoreless – type of stuff TBD.
Thanks for putting the curse on Vegas again.
3-2 Boston 4 :14 left
What magic trick will those Golden Pasaykas bust out tonight?
I expect Archie back. I was thinking Haas might be as well and Nygard not. On the latter two I am starting to think Nygard will be back because of his speed (which I also think Holland likes about Archie).
It will be interesting to see what he does as we start to get a read on Kenny as Oilers GM.
Edit
Haas also has speed but I’m not sure he’s impressing them overall. Smart yes, rounded enough for 3C or to displace Sheahan I’m not sure.
I so want to watch the Connor doc. But it sounds like it’ll bring out the 80s Messier side of my hockey brain I try to keep minimized. Elbow to the chops for Mr Gio as he comes around the net.
And it certainly won’t help my disgust at the league for being biased over decades against our Oilers and letting hacks regardless of ability ruin the game for everyone by hurting the best players.
And increase my nervousness at how Connor plays.
I also remain amazed that Chia had the audacity to trade for Manning, on any level you can think about it.
Messier’s elbows were absolutely vicious!
Remember McCoun? Hooo man
Or the Russian in the summit series
WPG has won 5 of their last 20 ….
I think they are removing themselves from the playoffs, while CHI is entering the equation …
WE WAIT
I knew that Nuge had been on fire lately (I think its 13 or 14 points and plus 9 in the 8 games since the Leon/Connor split) but Archie, of all people, has 10 points in his last 12 games – that’s on top of the plus PK and responsibility. Go Archie!
I agree. It’s about who can do the job. I think Neal is pretty much a PP specialist at this point.
I hope he gets hot again and pops 30. Some teams might need what he’s still good at and less so a strong 5v5 player.
I think the oilers need more strong 5v5 types and less ‘specialists’.
Vegas leading Boston 2-1 at the end of the second.
Could move into first in the Pacific with a win.
I’d like to see Archibald there, maybe Benson too. If the current vets aren’t getting it done, give the kids a chance. Slats did.
Oh interesting, switch Archie over to the left. Worth a shot, they’ve certainly been gold together thus far.
This we know for sure: it’s a travesty to drag down McDavid. Can’t happen. Neal’s only saving grace is their scoring chance #’s are pretty good. Gotta cash in though.
I too would really like to see Benson given a shot to play with McDavid when and if he gets called up. Pretty sure he has the head to play with him if he doesn’t get the starstruck wobble. And McDavid has actually been good with some ‘slower’ type players before.
I will want to see Benson’s cycle game at the NHL level. He’s excelled in the AHL at it with Marody and Currie. If he can develop some cycle/positioning chemistry with Kassian and McDavid….wooot
Justin Williams scored in his first game back with Carolina.
Then why bother?