A Giant Walks Among Us

There are dozens of takeaways from last night’s television premiere of ‘Whatever it Takes’, including the seriousness of the decision faced last spring by Connor McDavid. We learned he’s human, that people around are also concerned by his high speeds and possible damage from crashes, and that the young man heals like a super hero. We saw, perhaps for the first time, the real Connor McDavid. Raw, fragile, determined, purposeful. Impressive.

We learned that Ken Holland had a moment after being hired when he found out the true extent of the injury, and we can discuss whether or not that had an impact on his summer plans (I suspect it had to at least have some part in the process). That’s a lot from a television show.

Big questions: Where would this franchise be without McDavid? Does Ken Holland have trust issues? Does that change your opinion on Holland’s moves of summer? Do the Oilers approve of the verbal as it pertains to Nicholson? Is John Shannon the next big name to join the organization?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hey, Sparky, can you do that?’: How the Oilers’ AHL video coach got his start as the Islanders’ mascot.
  • Eric Duhatschek: He’s special’: The people who know him best tell the story of how Leon Draisaitl took the NHL by storm
  • Pierre Lebrun: Where all 31 teams stand one month before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
  • Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers make a smart two-year bet on Caleb Jones, who has done nothing but improve
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 3 things from the latest Oilers win: A lacrosse goal, Mike Smith’s resurgence and Connor McDavid’s new linemate
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A defiant Zack Kassian issues his latest salvo against Matthew Tkachuk: ‘He messed with the wrong guy’
  • Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s deployment of Oilers defencemen indicates Kris Russell is vulnerable to trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers Notebook: Jujhar Khaira’s future, Caleb Jones’ adaptation to NHL speed
  • Lowetide: Projecting William Lagesson’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kailer Yamamoto has impressed the Oilers and especially star linemate Leon Draisaitl
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 10 bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Inside a coach’s impact: How Dave Tippett gets the most out of the Oilers’ players
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

CONDORS 2019-20

I watched most of last night’s game, came away with a few impressions. I like Stuart Skinner’s game, calm in his net, allowed two goals, one an unlucky deflection to a forward in the slot, and the other a screen shot. Skinner’s winning this job, and maybe an NHL look down the line.

Evan Bouchard is a brilliant passer, he is quicker getting back on pucks and maybe a little cavalier with the puck in his own zone (quick back pass in the second period behind the net was gobbled up by the enemy). Performed well during a 3-on-5.

Matt Benning was quality to my eye, had a strong game and played a lot. William Lagesson had a strong game, the only quarrel I had was a little hesitation on a shot from a spot that was promising. Dmitri Samorukov scored a nice goal that required creativity and impressed with his mobility.

Ryan McLeod’s speed is impressive, he stands out in a good way. Looks more comfortable with the puck than he did earlier in the year. Tyler Benson wasn’t in the play early, but made up for it with great work in the last 40 minutes. He raced to pucks, sent passes to good areas, creative and responsible in equal parts. Josh Currie can shoot the puck, nice goal. Brad Malone had a strong night, good at both ends. Cameron Hebig scored an impressive goal, he’s on a little run here this week. Another game tonight, wonder if they run Starrett.

OILERS FORWARDS FIVE ON FIVE SCORING

We’ll start back to NHL stuff today and build toward Wednesday and the next game. One of the interesting happenings just before the AS break is an increase in the number of forwards scoring at a pace that keeps them in the range of average top 6 forwards. You may recall the last time we looked at this the club had three first line forwards (97, 29 and Kassian) a third line player (Sam Gagner) and an acre of fourth liners. Lets’ see what things look like now.

  1. Connor McDavid 2.88 (first line)
  2. Leon Draisaitl 2.81 (first line)
  3. Kailer Yamamoto 2.58 (first line)
  4. Zack Kassian 2.33 (first line)
  5. Sam Gagner 1.66 (third line)
  6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.46 (third line)
  7. Joakim Nygard 1.29 (fourth line)
  8. Riley Sheahan 1.11 (fourth line)
  9. Josh Archibald 1.05 (fourth line)
  10. Gaetan Haas 0.99 (fourth line)
  11. Jujhar Khaira 0.92 (fourth line)
  12. Alex Chiasson 0.78 (fourth line)
  13. James Neal 0.76 (fourth line)
  14. Patrick Russell 0.69 (fourth line)

This is real progress, especially regarding Yamamoto (in a small sample size) and Nuge correcting like a demon. One of the areas we’re going to drill down on in the coming days: Who should be playing on McDavid’s wing? Here are the current numbers posted by winger. It’s clear that James Neal is so far off the pace that replacing him should be a priority.

  1. Nuge 3.87 (1-1-2 in 31 minutes)
  2. Leon Draisaitl 3.09 (10-17-27 in 523 minutes)
  3. Jujhar Khaira 2.68 (1-0-1 in 22 minutes)
  4. Josh Archibald 2.56 (2-1-3 in 70 minutes)
  5. Zack Kassian 2.48 (12-12-24 in 581 minutes)
  6. Sam Gagner 1.85 (0-1-1 in 32 minutes)
  7. Alex Chiasson 1.3 (one assist in 46 minutes)
  8. Joakim Nygard 1.1 (0-1-1 in 54 minutes)
  9. James Neal 0.61 (1-1-2 in 195 minutes)

Based on these numbers, and assuming the No. 2 line remains hot as a firecracker, how would you populate the lines in the second half? Here’s my thoughts:

  • Joakim Nygard—Connor McDavid—Josh Archibald
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Zack Kassian
  • Tyler Benson—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson/Sam Gagner

The alternate plan would have Benson with McDavid and Nygard on the fourth line. It’s time for Benson. We’ll talk more about it tomorrow.

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247 Responses to "A Giant Walks Among Us"

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  1. dustrock says:

    Stauffer seems to be heavily implying Benson will be up.

  2. dustrock says:

    Love that Oilers fans tried to show that McDavid was robbed against Barzal in the skate.

    Every time I think of McDavid and Barzal on the same team…. Ah well.

  3. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    A lot of chatter about Archibald’s solid play making Kassian redundant on that first line. This seems shortsighted to me, isn’t a sign of depth knowing you can rely on someone to play higher up in the order knowing it’s temp? Archibald playing a couple games up and doing well then getting bumped back down is a good thing. My worry is not the small sample size but the willingness to chase a(mother) shit in the dark.

    • godot10 says:

      Kassian is playing up the lineup when he is playing with McDavid. Just like Archibald. The point is one doesn’t give a nearly 30-year old Kassian 4 years and $12 million dollars, when you can find lots of guys who can be a successful placeholder (see Woodguy’s list) until you find Jari Kurri.

      Kassian is a bottom six winger nearing 30 who cannot PK or play special teams. He should be paid accordingly. Short deals. And a 25-30% raise should be enough.

  4. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Amazing typo to end that post not editing.

  5. tileguy says:

    Poor Zack.

  6. giddy says:

    Bouchard’s AHL numbers make me…. giddy…. heh

  7. Psyche says:

    It has been awhile since I’ve posted. Although I’ve managed to read every beautiful post LT creates! Thank you so much Mr. Mitchell.

    I didn’t see the show last night and am assuming that’s where the questions came from. With that in mind, can you expand on and clarify what led you to these questions?:
    – Does Ken Holland have trust issues? Does that change your opinion on Holland’s moves of summer?
    – Do the Oilers approve of the verbal as it pertains to Nicholson?
    – Is John Shannon the next big name to join the organization?

    What is Shannon’s networking/professional connection that makes him valued by the Oilers?

    Finally, with all the vitriol toward Keith’s oldest son, Matthew, I am surprised that there isn’t more anger directed toward Giordano in his role relating to McDavid’s injury.

  8. tileguy says:

    After watching the hyped up 3 on 3 hockey last night, I don’t think I would buy a ticket to watch the wnhl, unless maybe my sister was playing.

    • godot10 says:

      Women have purchasing power. If one wants to fill up NHL buildings, make women hockey fans. A women’s league with proper promotion and partnerships might help do that.

      Like the CHL, it would be a gateway drug.

      You are not the target market.

  9. PaperKurtRussell says:

    tileguy,

    Many years ago I was on a business trip in Sudbury. The security guard at the office greeted us as follows:
    “Welcome to Sudbury, all the girls in Sudbury are either hockey players or hookers. My sister plays left wing!”

    Then of course this was followed by a wink and a smile.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Where would this franchise be without McDavid?
    -Among the DET and OTT types

    Does Ken Holland have trust issues?
    -Is the pope Catholic?

    Does that change your opinion on Holland’s moves of summer?

    -He was fairly hand cuffed by the cap situation but lack of a big swing is more understandable for sure.

    Do the Oilers approve of the verbal as it pertains to Nicholson?
    -I don’t think Holland has any shits to give about approval and is making the situation known.

    Is John Shannon the next big name to join the organization?
    -That’s kind of out of left field LT. Reason?

    • Todd Macallan says:

      Re: John Shannon.

      I’d just be guessing but it might pertain to the fact he was listed as a producer or executive producer on the documentary last night, maybe signaling some level of involvement with the org?

  11. defmn says:

    I didn’t see the ‘Whatever it Takes’ last night so maybe it was answered there but with all talk about Holland not being told about the seriousness of the injury to Connor did anybody ask if Tippett knew before he signed on the dotted line?

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ken Holland was in Tucson for the game last night (and tonight).

    My biggest takeaway might be regarding what he saw from Evan Bouchard – he must have seen that he is a splendid player that can likely help in the NHL right now. We know Ken Holland and we know he is highly unlikely to call up a 20 year old rookie D and place him in the lineup during a playoff race.

    With that said, from his viewing (and everything he has seen prior to his viewing last night and the huge development in his game from October), Kenny must be thinking that Bouch is close to a lock for the roster next season.

    Does that have any effect on his strategy at the deadline, in the spring, at the draft, in free agency?

  13. yeraslob says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ken Holland was in Tucson for the game last night (and tonight).

    My biggest takeaway might be regarding what he saw from Evan Bouchard – he must have seen that he is a splendid player that can likely help in the NHL right now. We know Ken Holland and we know he is highly unlikely to call up a 20 year old rookie D and place him in the lineup during a playoff race.

    With that said, from his viewing (and everything he has seen prior to his viewing last night and the huge development in his game from October), Kenny must be thinking that Bouch is close to a lock for the roster next season.

    Does that have any effect on his strategy at the deadline, in the spring, at the draft, in free agency?

    Hopefully it means, at some point, he will be making room for Bouch to join the big club by the start of next season.

  14. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ken Holland was in Tucson for the game last night (and tonight).

    My biggest takeaway might be regarding what he saw from Evan Bouchard – he must have seen that he is a splendid player that can likely help in the NHL right now. We know Ken Holland and we know he is highly unlikely to call up a 20 year old rookie D and place him in the lineup during a playoff race.

    With that said, from his viewing (and everything he has seen prior to his viewing last night and the huge development in his game from October), Kenny must be thinking that Bouch is close to a lock for the roster next season.

    Does that have any effect on his strategy at the deadline, in the spring, at the draft, in free agency?

    Totally. Gives him more confidence In decisions regarding the team’s future with Russell, Benning and Larsson…and Persson and Berglund. But I think these decisions are more likely in the summer than the trade deadline, but who knows…

  15. hags9k says:

    “Here’s my thoughts:
    Joakim Nygard—Connor McDavid—Josh Archibald
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
    Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Zack Kassian
    Tyler Benson—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson/Sam Gagner”

    LT did you trade Neal?

    • Darth Tu says:

      I’m still of the opinion that Neal plays better 5×5 on the right side. I’d rather find a way to move on from Gagner and or Chiasson (although Chaser has been looking better recently) and bring Neal back on the right side.

      In saying that. I just tried to write out a bunch of lines and ended up with Neal on the left wing on the 3rd line every time. Maybe now is the time to trade him?? Yam is playing too well for Neal to take that spot, and I prefer all of Kassian, Archibald and Chiasson as the other RW. Unless maybe if Archibald can play LW you can run:

      Archibald-McDavid-Kassian
      Nuge-Drai-Yam
      Benson-Sheahan-Chiasson
      Nygard-Haas-Neal

      Still not optimal.

  16. godot10 says:

    yeraslob: Hopefully it means, at some point, he will be making room for Bouch to join the big club by the start of next season.

    You don’t make room. You dispose of someone after he has stolen someone’s job.

    The conservative plan for planning purposes is to assume Bouchard is the #7D but playing in Bakersfield to start the season, and the first callup if someone is playing poorly or injured.

    • geowal says:

      Yeah. Key is that if/when he steals a job that it’s palatable contract wise (ie someone whose contracts buries well gets sent down if need be

  17. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    defmn:
    I didn’t see the ‘Whatever it Takes’ last night so maybe it was answered there but with all talk about Holland not being told about the seriousness of the injury to Connor did anybody ask if Tippett knew before he signed on the dotted line?

    The verbal is KH didn’t know for about 1 month after he was hired (hired around May 7) …so if he didn’t know when he hired Tipp (~May 27), then I would guess Tipp didn’t know either when he was hired…

    Interesting how Old friend Bob

    https://www.nhl.com/news/edmonton-oilers-hire-ken-holland-as-general-manager/c-307262752

    trusts his new GM hire with such critical information pertaining to the team and decisions for developing a roster for the upcoming year….

    #BobMustGo

    If not for all the crap with Chia , etc, then simply time to move on….Change of culture and character from the top down (it is certainly happening from the bottom-up), there is hope…

  18. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    hags9k:
    “Here’s my thoughts:
    Joakim Nygard—Connor McDavid—Josh Archibald
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
    Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Zack Kassian
    Tyler Benson—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson/Sam Gagner”

    LT did you trade Neal?

    13th F on the bench for every 2nd PP…? 😉

    • Darth Tu says:

      It’s also saying something that LT rates Khaira higher than Neal given Khaira’s play this season.

    • who says:

      godot10:
      Blair MacDonald and Dave Lumley scored oodles of goals with Gretzky.Warren Young and Rob Brown similarly with Lemieux.

      As Woodguy showed, pretty much everyone scores with McDavid.

      In playing the markets, one is supposed to buy low and sell high.True, one should let one’s winners run with a stop, but there is no stop to save you from buying high on Kassian.

      The Oilers will have the salary cap room that Kassian would have occupied.His replacement value is a $2 something million dollars bottom six winger who doesn’t PK, not something that is particularly hard for a competent GM to find.

      Again, none of these comparables you bring up could skate like Kassian. It’s not even close. That’s what makes Kassian unique and what may help him defy the typical aging curve. I think he’s worth 3 million but I would like to avoid the 4th year, if possible.
      Your hate for this player is becoming legendary. And I think it’s clouding your judgement.

  19. Dustylegnd says:

    godot10:
    Kassian is playing up the lineup when he is playing with McDavid.Just like Archibald.The point is one doesn’t give a nearly 30-year old Kassian 4 years and $12 million dollars, when you can find lots of guys who can be a successful placeholder (see Woodguy’s list) until you find Jari Kurri.

    Kassian is a bottom six winger nearing 30 who cannot PK or play special teams.He should be paid accordingly.Short deals. And a 25-30% raise should be enough.

    godot10:
    Kassian is playing up the lineup when he is playing with McDavid.Just like Archibald.The point is one doesn’t give a nearly 30-year old Kassian 4 years and $12 million dollars, when you can find lots of guys who can be a successful placeholder (see Woodguy’s list) until you find Jari Kurri.

    Kassian is a bottom six winger nearing 30 who cannot PK or play special teams.He should be paid accordingly.Short deals. And a 25-30% raise should be enough.

    Kassian is 35 th in the NHL in 5 x 5 points tied with Stamkos and Ovechkin and one point behind Stone Tartar and Pacioretty…….they all make more than 5 mill….he has 0 motivation to sign the 2 x 2.2 mill you insists he is worth

    Let me tell you, as a person who trades markets all day long 5 days a week and has done so for the past 20 years, I can assure you with a certainty of 1…he will just go elsewhere to get paid

    If Kassian leaves, the Oiler will have 1 less legitimate NHL player…..that is not a good thing

    Yes he plays on McDavids wing and he has done a dam good job of taking advantage of that opportunity

    • godot10 says:

      Blair MacDonald and Dave Lumley scored oodles of goals with Gretzky. Warren Young and Rob Brown similarly with Lemieux.

      As Woodguy showed, pretty much everyone scores with McDavid.

      In playing the markets, one is supposed to buy low and sell high. True, one should let one’s winners run with a stop, but there is no stop to save you from buying high on Kassian.

      The Oilers will have the salary cap room that Kassian would have occupied. His replacement value is a $2 something million dollars bottom six winger who doesn’t PK, not something that is particularly hard for a competent GM to find.

  20. yeraslob says:

    godot10: You don’t make room.You dispose of someone afterhe has stolen someone’s job.

    The conservative plan for planning purposes is to assume Bouchard is the #7D but playing in Bakersfield to start the season, and the first callup if someone is playing poorly or injured.

    Ah, yes much better. Not gifting a roster spot, too much of that in years past.

  21. PokeCheck says:

    Is John Shannon the next big name to join the organization?

    Haven’t we suffered enough?

  22. leadfarmer says:

    Given our lack of cap space and not knowing if we have Mcdavid makes last offseason actually a very good one for Holland. Brought in some players that can play (and some that can’t) but getting rid of Lucic was huge.
    Just wish he left amateur scouting alone

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Dustylegnd,

    Plus he has the crazy eye that other teams are looking for.
    I can understand why someone will pay him a lot of money.
    I wouldnt

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    giddy:
    Bouchard’s AHL numbers make me…. giddy…. heh

    To me, they actually understate how good he’s been lately (4-6 weeks).

  25. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ken Holland was in Tucson for the game last night (and tonight).

    My biggest takeaway might be regarding what he saw from Evan Bouchard – he must have seen that he is a splendid player that can likely help in the NHL right now. We know Ken Holland and we know he is highly unlikely to call up a 20 year old rookie D and place him in the lineup during a playoff race.

    With that said, from his viewing (and everything he has seen prior to his viewing last night and the huge development in his game from October), Kenny must be thinking that Bouch is close to a lock for the roster next season.

    Does that have any effect on his strategy at the deadline, in the spring, at the draft, in free agency?

    Looks like Bouchard is ready for 3rd pairing minutes, now it’s up to Holland to get some value wether it be draft picks to obtain a forward or just a forward. We’re not keeping all these D there’s only so many seats at the big boy table.

  26. Bling says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Kassian is 35 th in the NHL in 5 x 5 points tied with Stamkos and Ovechkin and one point behind Stone Tartar and Pacioretty…….they all make more than 5 mill….he has 0 motivation to sign the 2 x 2.2 mill you insists he is worth

    Let me tell you, as a person who trades markets all day long 5 days a week and has done so for the past 20 years, I can assure you with a certainty of 1…he will just go elsewhere to get paid

    If Kassian leaves, the Oiler will have 1 less legitimate NHL player…..that is not a good thing

    Yes he plays on McDavids wing and he has done a dam good job of taking advantage of that opportunity

    The market does not value Kassian at a 5 million dollar level and neither does Kassian himself, because McDavid and because those other players are all proven EV scorers and line drivers.

    There is a reason Kassian wants a deal now, and that is because the market is an unknown. He could cash in, but he is comparatively older and a player type whose production can fall off a cliff. He also benefits from playing with one of the best players ever, even though his overall effectiveness in doing so is middling.

    Holland absolutely should leverage his position here.

    Nurse and Bear are the big fish this season, not Kassian.

  27. Bling says:

    Baseball has a decent number of guys who break out in their late 20s, but that just doesn’t seem to happen in hockey.

    I have trouble believing that Kassian has found a new level this season to justify the type of pay he wants going forward. This is not a Ferland or Wilson scenario, either; this is a player who will decline over the course of his next contract. For sure.

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: The verbal is KH didn’t know for about 1 month after he was hired (hired around May 7) …so if he didn’t know when he hired Tipp (~May 27), then I would guess Tipp didn’t know either when he was hired…

    When I stated a month yesterday, I was wrong.

    I had conflated two things that he said.

    He learned of the severity of the injury “a couple days” after being hired in a conference call with McDavid’s rehab team.

    He still didn’t know when until after he got hired, but he knew when he hired Tippett so I would assume that Tippett knew.

    I apologize for that mistake.

  29. dessert1111 says:

    This offseason I think I trade both Russell and Larsson, unless you think you can sign Larsson to a very reasonable deal. I see him playing 3rd pair on this team starting in 2021 and he will be overpaid for that role.

    I like Benning as a 3rd pair guy and he will be cheaper – only question is concussion history for me.

    All that being said running a right side with some combination of Bear, Benning, Bouchard, Persson or Berglund next year is obviously very risky, so I can see a hesitancy to move on from Larsson even if he isn’t in the long term plans.

  30. defmn says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: The verbal is KH didn’t know for about 1 month after he was hired (hired around May 7) …so if he didn’t know when he hiredTipp (~May 27), then I would guess Tipp didn’t know either when he was hired…

    Interesting how Old friend Bob

    https://www.nhl.com/news/edmonton-oilers-hire-ken-holland-as-general-manager/c-307262752

    trusts his new GM hire with such critical information pertaining to the team and decisions for developing a roster for the upcoming year….

    #BobMustGo

    If not for all the crap with Chia , etc, then simply time to move on….Change of culture and character from the top down (it is certainly happening from the bottom-up), there is hope…

    Woodguy v2.0: When I stated a month yesterday, I was wrong.

    I had conflated two things that he said.

    He learned of the severity of the injury “a couple days” after being hired in a conference call with McDavid’s rehab team.

    He still didn’t know when until after he got hirec, but he knew when he hired Tippett so I would assume that Tippett knew.

    I apologize for that mistake.

    Thanks to both of you for the answer & clarification. I know there were a few questions about why Tippett took a two year contract & wondered if this mess was part of that decision.

  31. Wilde says:

    Bakersfield Condors vs. Tucson Roadrunners, January 24th, 2020; first run

    Benson – Granlund – Currie
    Esposito – Cave – Maksimov
    McLeod – Malone – Hebig
    Stukel – Gambardella – Peluso

    Lagesson – Benning
    Lowe – Bouchard
    Samorukov – Kulevich

    AFTER 20:

    14CF-17CA
    5FF-8FA
    1GF-1GA

    Top F: Hebig (1.21 Game Score)
    2 shot attempts, 0 shot assists
    1 goal
    6CF-2CA
    3FF-1FA
    1GF-0GA

    Top D: Lagesson (0.22 Game Score)
    3 shot attempts, 0 shot assists
    5CF-4CA
    2FF-3FA
    0GF-0GA

    e:DIDN’T MARK THE STATS AS END OF 1ST

  32. Wilde says:

    Our secret: I haven’t added Benning into the game sheets yet bc I’m mad at the amount of players already on it

  33. defmn says:

    When discussing RD going forward I see Jones being left out of the conversation a lot. I think that is a mistake since from my viewings he looks more comfortable over there than on the left side.

  34. Reja says:

    Bling:
    Baseball has a decent number of guys who break out in their late 20s, but that just doesn’t seem to happen in hockey.

    I have trouble believing that Kassian has found a new level this season to justify the type of pay he wants going forward. This is not a Ferland or Wilson scenario, either; this is a player who will decline over the course of his next contract. For sure.

    David Perron a power forward in my eyes is arguably having the best season of his career at the ripe old age of 31.

  35. VanIsleOil says:

    Reja: David Perron a power forward in my eyes is arguably having the best season of his career at the ripe old age of 31.

    In that case, sign Kass up to a 4 year $16,000,000 contract…./s

  36. Victoria Oil says:

    tileguy:
    After watching the hyped up 3 on 3 hockey last night, I don’t think I would buy a ticket to watch the wnhl, unless maybe my sister was playing.

    I would bet that today’s all-star game will have less intensity than last night’s women’s game.

  37. Nit64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He learned of the severity of the injury “a couple days” after being hired in a conference call with McDavid’s rehab team.

    This narrows down the analysis. Looks like they glossed over this until he signed and then McDavid’s team briefed in detail ASAP for his planning. If the org was glossing over significant long term risks absolutely beyond the pale. Holland may be offended they glossed over short term risks until he was on the job. A coach is judged on the short term, so glossing over short term risks would have been nasty treatment of Tippet who had good opps in Seattle.

  38. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woodguy v2.0: When I stated a month yesterday, I was wrong.

    I had conflated two things that he said.

    He learned of the severity of the injury “a couple days” after being hired in a conference call with McDavid’s rehab team.

    He still didn’t know when until after he got hirec, but he knew when he hired Tippett so I would assume that Tippett knew.

    I apologize for that mistake.

    Great to clarify.
    Thanks. I will stop spreading nasty rumours 👍

  39. Nit64 says:

    dessert1111: This offseason I think I trade both Russell and Larsson, unless you think you can sign Larsson to a very reasonable deal.

    ~ If you sign him to that reasonable deal before the expansion draft Seattle will thank you. Even with Bouch and Bro exempt protecting Lars seems problematic ~

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Who do we ned to protect?

      McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Yamamoto

      Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones.

      Let Larsson go UFA and sign him after the expansion draft?

  40. Scungilli Slushy says:

    defmn:
    When discussing RD going forward I see Jones being left out of the conversation a lot. I think that is a mistake since from my viewings he looks more comfortable over there than on the left side.

    I can’t remember where (maybe ON) but there was a Jones interview and he stated he prefers LD. I imagine it matters less in the A where he can dominate, but at the NHL his first priority must be just to stick and it’s easier on your forehand.

  41. Alpine says:

    Been looking into Kassian and his career and some of the trends he’s gone through are pretty interesting. (All stats from NST)

    Here’s his GP, G/60, and primary P/60 over the years:

    11/12 BUF: 27, 0.61, 1.22
    11/12 VAN: 17, 0.35, 0.70

    12/13 VAN: 39, 0.65, 0.78

    13/14 VAN: 73, 0.89, 1.57

    14/15 VAN: 42, 1.09, 1.57

    15/16 EDM: 36, 0.42, 0.70

    16/17 EDM: 79, 0.48, 1.03

    17/18 EDM: 74, 0.57, 0.89
    (0.62 2ndA/60)

    18/19 EDM: 79, 0.69, 1.09

    19/20 EDM: 44, 1.16, 1.61
    (0.72 2A)

    Looks like a lot of replacement level scoring. I added in the 2nd assists in the years where it was significant and made his total P/60 much higher. Every other year, his second assists average roughly between 0.25 and 0.40 per 60 mins.

    Some nice years in there like his last two seasons in VAN. In 13/14, He played 700 mins away from the Sedins and Kesler. 48 mins with the Sedins and just over 100 with Kesler. His usual centre was Brad Richardson, with 400 mins of TOI.

    In 14/15, his two most common Cs were Brad Richardson and Shawn Matthias. 200+ mins with each of them and 125 mins with Sedin.

    I found his 5v5 SH% trends really interesting:

    11/12: 9.09, 5.56 (BUF, VAN)

    12/13: 12.20

    13/14: 14.94

    14/15: 18.37

    15/16: 7.50

    16/17: 6.67

    17/18: 8.75

    18/19: 11.76

    19/20: 19.70

    He seems to pop off every few years for multiple seasons at a time and then cool off for multiple seasons. Seems like we might get one more good year before he cools off after likely moving down the lineup in year or two.

    Those VAN years are quite impressive considering his line mates. He’s had one great year in EDM thats been buoyed by amazing line mates and the best shooting percentage of his career to date.

    Kassian’s physical gifts (speed, size) plus his gritensity and SH% spikes have helped keep him in the league. He’s an NHL player but there’s been a few too many years where he hasn’t quite looked the part of one.

  42. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m sure Holland will be looking for more cap than expiring contracts. There are some decent players that should have some sort of value to someone – Russell Chiasson come to mind.

    They really need to move on from the 5v5 deadweight. Go on another heater Mr Neal please and become tradeable.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      There might be a few teams that would take Neal with 2 or $2.5m retained.

      Which prospect would you be willing to give up to move that contract outright?

      Id give up Benning and retain $1m to move Neal in the summer.

      • Scungilli Slushy says:

        Because there are players pushing up Holland can now look at trading a good player like Benning to fill a hoe or open cap.

        Get hot Neal. If he can manage 11 more goals I’m sure somebody wants a ‘30’ goal scorer. And they get paid more than 6M these days so the salary is less an issue.

        4 goals though…

        Brilliant Mr Holland

        Edit – Woodguy’s phone problem for the rude typo

  43. Reja says:

    VanIsleOil: In that case, sign Kass up to a 4 year $16,000,000 contract…./s

    Can’t see it being that much. Kass want’s to resign Oilers want to resign him I see it being 4yrs at 12mil or 3yrs at 10 mil of course with no stupid movement clauses attached.

  44. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Alpine:
    Been looking into Kassian and his career and some of the trends he’s gone through are pretty interesting. (All stats from NST)

    Here’s his GP, G/60, and primary P/60 over the years:

    11/12 BUF: 27, 0.61, 1.22
    11/12 VAN: 17, 0.35, 0.70

    12/13 VAN: 39, 0.65, 0.78

    13/14 VAN: 73, 0.89, 1.57

    14/15 VAN: 42, 1.09, 1.57

    15/16 EDM: 36, 0.42, 0.70

    16/17 EDM: 79, 0.48, 1.03

    17/18 EDM: 74, 0.57, 0.89
    (0.62 2ndA/60)

    18/19 EDM: 79, 0.69, 1.09

    19/20 EDM: 44, 1.16, 1.61
    (0.72 2A)

    Looks like a lot of replacement level scoring. I added in the 2nd assists in the years where it was significant and made his total P/60 much higher. Every other year, his second assists average roughly between 0.25 and 0.40 per 60 mins.

    Some nice years in there like his last two seasons in VAN. In 13/14, He played 700 mins away from the Sedins and Kesler. 48 mins with the Sedins and just over 100 with Kesler. His usual centre was Brad Richardson, with 400 mins of TOI.

    In 14/15, his two most common Cs were Brad Richardson and Shawn Matthias. 200+ mins with each of them and 125 mins with Sedin.

    I found his 5v5 SH% trends really interesting:

    11/12: 9.09, 5.56 (BUF, VAN)

    12/13: 12.20

    13/14: 14.94

    14/15: 18.37

    15/16: 7.50

    16/17: 6.67

    17/18: 8.75

    18/19: 11.76

    19/20: 19.70

    He seems to pop off every few years for multiple seasons at a time and then cool off for multiple seasons. Seems like we might get one more good year before he cools off after likely moving down the lineup in year or two.

    Those VAN years are quite impressive considering his line mates. He’s had one great year in EDM thats been buoyed by amazing line mates and the best shooting percentage of his career to date.

    Kassian’s physical gifts (speed, size) plus his gritensity and SH% spikes have helped keep him in the league. He’s an NHL player but there’s been a few too many years where he hasn’t quite looked the part of one.

    Interesting. To me the only way they move from Kassian is if Khaira could establish as a reg player and develop a rep for fighting.

    Given McDavid has already had two serious injuries whether or not a tough guy helps they’re going to want a significant ruffian around. It would be better to not have Nurse be that because the risk of getting hurt is too high for a player that important and playing that much.

    If Tampa brought in some beef you know that it’s still considered important around tables in back rooms.

    Teams will still use physicality as a first tactic to get the opponent of their game if they think it will work.

  45. who says:

    dessert1111:
    This offseason I think I trade both Russell and Larsson, unless you think you can sign Larsson to a very reasonable deal. I see him playing 3rd pair on this team starting in 2021 and he will be overpaid for that role.

    I like Benning as a 3rd pair guy and he will be cheaper – only question is concussion history for me.

    All that being said running a right side with some combination of Bear, Benning, Bouchard, Persson or Berglund next year is obviously very risky, so I can see a hesitancy to move on from Larsson even if he isn’t in the long term plans.

    My thoughts exactly.
    Larsson’s contract runs out at about the same time you are hoping for Bouchard settling in to a top 4 role. I would keep him, unless the trade return is overwhelming.
    The other option is to trade Larrson now, or this summer, and sign someone like Bogosian as a stop gap.
    Either way I’m trading Benning and Russell, before Larrson. Next years right side should be Bear, Larrson, Bouchard. If possible.

    • Material Elvis says:

      I’d rather see Bear, Larsson, and Benning next year. Bring Bouchard up after Christmas and trade Benning or Larsson at that time if the D is healthy.

  46. SVR says:

    Darth Tu:
    I’m still of the opinion that Neal plays better 5×5 on the right side. I’d rather find a way to move on from Gagner and or Chiasson (although Chaser has been looking better recently) and bring Neal back on the right side.

    In saying that. I just tried to write out a bunch of lines and ended up with Neal on the left wing on the 3rd line every time. Maybe now is the time to trade him?? Yam is playing too well for Neal to take that spot, and I prefer all of Kassian, Archibald and Chiasson as the other RW. Unless maybe if Archibald can play LW you can run:

    Archibald-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Drai-Yam
    Benson-Sheahan-Chiasson
    Nygard-Haas-Neal

    Still not optimal.

    I wouldn’t change the top two lines as long as we keep playing well and collecting points like the last couple of weeks. I think Neal will come around if we leave things alone for a bit. He’s always been a streaky scorer and has been getting chances. They will start to go in soon. Until then, the line continues to outscore the other team so I think we need to roll with it.

    I would jump at the opportunity to trade Neal for a better or shorter contract. This will be a tall order for Holland regardless. Moving Neale down the line up all but guarantees his scoring rates don’t come back and we will be looking at another buy out which craters our cap.

    I say leave him with Connor unless the line starts getting beat up on the score board. If we can get through this season, and maybe one more, the buy out looks a little better. Or we could get lucky and Holland works some more magic

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      You have to approach it like you REALLY dont want Kassian here…..then it all wortks out.

      Benson McDavid Archibald

      Easy Peasy

  47. Andy Dufresne says:

    “Benson with McDavid and Nygard on the fourth line.”

    Now thats Out of the Box thinking. 🙂

  48. Andy Dufresne says:

    i wonder what its going to cost to re-sign Larsson?

  49. leadfarmer says:

    I’m cool with letting Bouchard start next season in AHL. We got a big logjam on D and theres a decent chance we cant move Russell, and some of the other guys we have to make decisions on are not waiver eligible.
    You’re not going to hear me complain about too much defensive depth.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “Benson with McDavid and Nygard on the fourth line.”

    Now thats Out of the Box thinking.

    Double shifting for the playoffs. Mcdavid and Drai are hopefully getting some relaxing time cause they are going to be ridden like rented mules

  51. jp says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    i wonder what its going to cost to re-sign Larsson?

    Good question. I’d say it depends a ton on his play over the next year +.

    If he gets back to previous levels and usage then he should be due a decent raise ($5M X 5?).

    If he doesn’t recover (or maintain the partial recovery we’re seeing now) does he get any more than he’s making now? The man is -36 (worst Oiler by a fair margin) with 24 points over the last season and a half.

  52. jtblack says:

    VanIsleOil: In that case, sign Kass up to a 4 year $16,000,000 contract…./s

    David Perron – Power Forward? uh ok.

  53. Dustylegnd says:

    Bling: The market does not value Kassian at a 5 million dollar level and neither does Kassian himself, because McDavid and because those other players are all proven EV scorers and line drivers.

    There is a reason Kassian wants a deal now, and that is because the market is an unknown. He could cash in, but he is comparatively older and a player type whose production can fall off a cliff. He also benefits from playing with one of the best players ever, even though his overall effectiveness in doing so is middling.

    Holland absolutely should leverage his position here.

    Nurse and Bear are the big fish this season, not Kassian.

    Don’t get me wrong I am not suggesting he is a $5 million dollar player, I maintain he wants to be in Edmonton and probably can be signed for $3 x 4 years……would be even better if was $3 x 3 years but market forces are what they are…the Oiler have show little ability to find replacement level players capable of scoring 20 goals and providing a physical presence….

    .replacement level players are in theory easy to find and plug in…as far as I can tell, the Penguins are the only ones who have demonstrated the ability to do it consistently ….the Oilers have not….

    Kassian at ~ 3 mill is not the problem he is a plus skater who will be fine in 3 years…Chiasson at 2.1 mill and Gagner at 3 mill and Neil/Lucimoto at 6 mill are the problem, what do they all have in common? paid too much and are shit skaters

  54. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: ‘Connor McDavid: Whatever It Takes’ works as breaking news, drama and personality profile. If the future matches the backstory, hold on and stay tuned.

    https://theathletic.com/1561016/2020/01/25/lowetide-connor-mcdavid-whatever-it-takes-works-as-breaking-news-drama-and-personality-profile/

  55. Reja says:

    jtblack: David Perron – Power Forward?uh ok.

    Who stops him from getting to his spots surely not you.

  56. Material Elvis says:

    Dustylegnd: Don’t get me wrong I am not suggesting he is a $5 million dollar player, I maintain he wants to be in Edmonton and probably can be signed for $3 x 4 years……would be even better if was $3 x 3 years but market forces are what they are…the Oiler have show little ability to find replacement level players capable of scoring 20 goals and providing a physical presence….

    .replacement level players are in theory easy to find and plug in…as far as I can tell, the Penguins are the only ones who have demonstrated the ability to do it consistently ….the Oilers have not….

    Kassian at ~ 3 mill is not the problem he is a plus skater who will be fine in 3 years…Chiasson at 2.1 mill and Gagner at 3 mill and Neil/Lucimoto at 6 mill are the problem, what do they all have in common? paid too much and are shit skaters

    We have to make the assumption that Kassian will play the majority of his next contract in the bottom six (based on a long track record). Why would you want a bottom six forward on a four year contract? If his offense dries up, you can’t trade that contract, even if he can still skate. So you are willing to accept that risk for a guy who has some physicality?

  57. Material Elvis says:

    jp: Good question. I’d say it depends a ton on his play over the next year +.

    If he gets back to previous levels and usage then he should be due a decent raise ($5M X 5?).

    If he doesn’t recover (or maintain the partial recovery we’re seeing now) does he get any more than he’s making now? The man is -36 (worst Oiler by a fair margin) with 24 points over the last season and a half.

    I wouldn’t give that player a 5 year deal. He’s already slow; a 33 year old Larsson won’t be helpful. If he’d do a 3 year deal then I’d consider it. If not, then pass.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Reja: David Perron a power forward in my eyes is arguably having the best season of his career at the ripe old age of 31.

    Perron is more Tkachuk type (pest) than power forward.

    He’s listed at 6ft and I’ve met him, he’s not 6ft when not wearing skates.

    Power forwards lay big checks and are monsters on the boards.

    Power forwards also have much higher hit totals than Perron. (~100 vs ~170)

    Perron is more of a cheap asshole to play against and very good puck hound with all the offensive tools (awareness, shooting, passing)

    Loved him as an Oiler.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Great to clarify.
    Thanks. I will stop spreading nasty rumours

    Burger Bob still didn’t tell him before he was hired.

    Truth is truth, even if its nasty. 🙂

  60. Reja says:

    Material Elvis: We have to make the assumption that Kassian will play the majority of his next contract in the bottom six (based on a long track record).Why would you want a bottom six forward on a four year contract?If his offense dries up, you can’t trade that contract, even if he can still skate.So you are willing to accept that risk for a guy who has some physicality?

    It’s better then being Calgary’s weak azz bitchh for the next 3-4 years.

  61. duct tape and foil says:

    Would like to see the numbers 5×5 without October. It took our new bottom 6 guys a month to settle in and start scoring, I doubt they revert, so Nov-Jan might be more representative of future performance this year. I’m pretty happy with Shea, Archie, Nygard as a very good 4th line. Sign all 3 up for 2 year deals for about $1.25 million.

    That said, the 3rd line is the issue going forward. Benson likely comes in on LW in a few days which might help and you can put Chaser on RW. You Leave Neal with McDavid for now but slowly start testing Benson in that slot if he is playing well. His board work and passing is a good fit with McDavid as long as the RW has wheels. Going to need a 3C with serious wheels though to compensate for all of Chase, Neal and Benson on L3 though. Haas for now I guess but an upgrade would be nice.

  62. Material Elvis says:

    Reja: It’s better then being Calgary’s weak azz bitchh for the next 3-4 years.

    Team toughness. Enforcers don’t do anything.

  63. geowal says:

    Duhatschek’s piece on Leon is pretty good for the Athletic folk

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Kassian is 35 th in the NHL in 5 x 5 points tied with Stamkos and Ovechkin and one point behind Stone Tartar and Pacioretty…….they all make more than 5 mill….he has 0 motivation to sign the 2 x 2.2 mill you insists he is worth

    Let me tell you, as a person who trades markets all day long 5 days a week and has done so for the past 20 years, I can assure you with a certainty of 1…he will just go elsewhere to get paid

    If Kassian leaves, the Oiler will have 1 less legitimate NHL player…..that is not a good thing

    Yes he plays on McDavids wing and he has done a dam good job of taking advantage of that opportunity

    In 18/19 when Kassian played without McDavid ranked 223rd in even strength goals, 433rd in even strength points.

    He also asked for a trade.

    That is the player Kassian is because there is only one McDavid.

    I like him and want him as an Oiler.

    If he can cash in on his results with McDavid that’s great for him, but not for the team that signs him .

  65. Reja says:

    Material Elvis: Team toughness.Enforcers don’t do anything.

    Do you classify Kass as a enforcer? I think your selling him short if you do.

  66. Dustylegnd says:

    Material Elvis: We have to make the assumption that Kassian will play the majority of his next contract in the bottom six (based on a long track record).Why would you want a bottom six forward on a four year contract?If his offense dries up, you can’t trade that contract, even if he can still skate.So you are willing to accept that risk for a guy who has some physicality?

    i don’t want to sign him for 4 years I would like to sign him for a series of 1 year contracts until he is no longer useful and then drop him off on the side of the road, but that is not how free markets work

    If this team had any semblance of forward depth or at least some potential top 6 talent in the minors they could play hard ball with Zach and if required just move on…by all reports he is loved by his teammates, has put up very impressive 5 x 5 scoring numbers and can play physical. The clock is ticking on this team …..we need more real NHL players not less….Kassian is a real living bonafide NHL player

  67. duct tape and foil says:

    People are still comparing Kassian the substance abuser and/or Kassian the TMac 4th line outcast to current clean Kassian with supportive coach. Apples and oranges. But if you are pushing a narrative then I guess context doesn’t matter much.

    People are also discounting all qualitative info about the role Kass plays on the team. Losing Maroon did not hurt the offense, but it did probably hurt the room and there was a gap until we brought in Neal and Chaisson.

    $3.3 x 3 is fine and Kass will play top 6 for the majority.

  68. Reja says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Perron is more Tkachuk type (pest) than power forward.

    He’s listed at 6ft and I’ve met him, he’s not 6ft when not wearing skates.

    Power forwards lay big checks and are monsters on the boards.

    Power forwards also have much higher hit totals than Perron. (~100 vs ~170)

    Perron is more of a cheap asshole to play against and very good puck hound with all the offensive tools (awareness, shooting, passing)

    Loved him as an Oiler.

    I blame it on my phone I should have said poor man’s power forward. I know must people don’t agree but when David cranks it up a notch he’s hard to control.

  69. duct tape and foil says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In 18/19 when Kassian played without McDavid ranked 223rd in even strength goals, 433rd in even strength points.

    He also asked for a trade.

    That is the player Kassian is because there is only one McDavid.

    I like him and want him as an Oiler.

    If he can cash in on his results with McDavid that’s great for him, but not for the team that signs him .

    Again, who were the non-McDavid 5×5 linemates? Mostly “identity line” buddies bad back Brodziak and Lucic. Kassian’s case is very unusual and looking at time prior to 2019 calendar year may not be representative of current performance. People who otherwise demand context in making judgements appear to be throwing that out the window on this player. Kass also plays a very important role on this team unless you want to ignore actual words spoken by actual players.

    Kass is an unusual case and there is risk, but I think both player and team realize that, and will come to a reasonable outcome.

  70. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd: i don’t want to sign him for 4 years I would like to sign him for a series of 1 year contracts until he is no longer useful and then drop him off on the side of the road, but that is not how free markets work

    If this team had any semblance of forward depth or at least some potential top 6 talent in the minors they could play hard ball with Zach and if required just move on…by all reports he is loved by his teammates, has put up very impressive 5 x 5 scoring numbers and can play physical. The clock is ticking on this team …..we need more real NHL players not less….Kassian is a real living bonafide NHL player

    Signing Kassian before he goes to market is not letting the market work.

    Belichek let McCourty and HIghtower go to the free agent market at the height of their careers rather than use the franchise tag, and he was able to re-sign them at their exact market value.

    The Patriots basically never use the franchise tag. They put a value on their players, and let them go (sometimes by trade, sometimes for nothing but the cap space and the compensatory draft picks) if they exceed that value in the market place.

  71. godot10 says:

    duct tape and foil:
    People are still comparing Kassian the substance abuser and/or Kassian the TMac 4th line outcast to current clean Kassian with supportive coach. Apples and oranges. But if you are pushing a narrative then I guess context doesn’t matter much.

    People are also discounting all qualitative info about the role Kass plays on the team. Losing Maroon did not hurt the offense, but it did probably hurt the room and there was a gap until we brought in Neal and Chaisson.

    $3.3 x 3 is fine and Kass will play top 6 for the majority.

    Who has said 4th liner? I said bottom six, which implies 3rd liner. He doesn’t PK. He is nearing 30. He is a replaceable player.

    You realize that Kassian started his first complete season with McLellan on right wing with Nugent-Hopkins, and he laid a giant egg.

    • BONE207 says:

      Mclellan???
      Isn’t he a Totally Mediocre Coach?
      That’s you throwing a rotten fish into the bucket of fried chicken. I still think a starting offer of $2.5 per will get you close. The stress of uprooting the family etc, new town & new role while keeping your personal vices in check will make Zack a happy man by accepting. If he lives within his means, invests wisely & stays in shape, his career will bring its own rewards.

      When can we talk about other things than Zack?

  72. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    I’d be on board with moving Larsson if we could bring in a lower cost Dman that can fill a similar role. A guy like Merrill comes to mind even though he’s a RD. Could be a really solid entry-level partner for Bouchard coming in and a strong option for a 3rd pairing in the event Benning’s condition fails to hold. His presence on the 3rd alongside Benning would likely enable a Klefbom-Bouchard pairing the kinds of offensive minutes they’d (hopefully) thrive in.

  73. jp says:

    Material Elvis: I wouldn’t give that player a 5 year deal.He’s already slow; a 33 year old Larsson won’t be helpful.If he’d do a 3 year deal then I’d consider it.If not, then pass.

    Not saying I would or that the Oilers should. Just spitballing at what he could get on the open market.

    The Larsson of 16-17 and 17-18 (playing with an edge while winning first pair minutes against the toughest comp) I think would easily get $5M X 5 as a 28 year old UFA.

    If he gets back there through the remainder of 2020 then maybe he does get that kind of deal from someone.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Looks like Bouchard is ready for 3rd pairing minutes, now it’s up to Holland to get some value wether it be draft picks to obtain a forward or just a forward. We’re not keeping all these D there’s only so many seats at the big boy table.

    Of course, Bouchard should not be in the NHL until next season – value in that ELC sliding. value in continued development. value in not inserting a 20 year old rookie pro d-man in to the heat of a playoff race.

  75. duct tape and foil says:

    godot10: Who has said 4th liner?I said bottom six, which implies 3rd liner.He doesn’t PK.He is nearing 30.He is a replaceable player.

    You realize that Kassian started his first complete season with McLellan on right wing with Nugent-Hopkins, and he laid a giant egg.

    I said TMac saw him as 4th liner

    I’m not going to bother chatting with you on this topic as you’ve made up your mind and have zero interest in seeing alternative perspectives, recognizing context, or even the slightest chance you might be wrong.

    Last year I said Kass would be a great fit in the top 6 if given the chance and he has been. He plays a very important role in the room as stated by his own team in their own words. We had Maroon and Kass as leaders and threw Maroon away because Lucic was supposed to do it all. Big mistake and CGY will find that out soon enough. In hindsight we didn’t need Lucic and should have just kept both Kass and Maroon, but playoff success against big, old slow teams gave Chia a false signal that he was on the right path and he gave credit to the wrong guy (Lucic).

    Right now we have Kass, Chase and Neal as physical leaders. The latter two are near the end of their careers but are still useful for now. Getting rid of all three guys next year would put us back into the days where RNH, Hall and Ebs got abused and laughed at by bigger teams.

  76. Koof says:

    I was never a person to think they owed anything to a player getting pAid millions to play a sport he loves.

    After seeing what he did just to make it back for his team and city, I’ve switched my thought. They owe him everything and if they are still in a playoff position after next 4-6 games Holland needs to make a splash because McD effing deserves a stud LW. Even if they have 80% the chemistry as leon and him, look out.

    And I also found it interesting that Kassian was featured in it soo much, I think him and McD are way way closer than people think, shows when McD was first one in after turtle.

    Fuck a 3c.

  77. who says:

    Material Elvis: We have to make the assumption that Kassian will play the majority of his next contract in the bottom six (based on a long track record).Why would you want a bottom six forward on a four year contract?If his offense dries up, you can’t trade that contract, even if he can still skate.So you are willing to accept that risk for a guy who has some physicality?

    Why do we have to make that assumption?
    Is anyone unhappy with his play over the last calendar year?
    What makes you so sure he can’t maintain his current level of production for the next 3 years?
    It’s almost as if some posters here are hoping he fails.

  78. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In 18/19 when Kassian played without McDavid ranked 223rd in even strength goals, 433rd in even strength points.

    He also asked for a trade.

    That is the player Kassian is because there is only one McDavid.

    I like him and want him as an Oiler.

    If he can cash in on his results with McDavid that’s great for him, but not for the team that signs him .

    from 2017 forward Kass has 65 5 x 5 points (I assume most of them with Connor) Nuge has 76 and doesn’t drive a line…best to move on from Nuge at the $6 mill plus and 7 years he will want at the end of this contract as well

  79. Harpers Hair says:

    Alpine:
    Been looking into Kassian and his career and some of the trends he’s gone through are pretty interesting. (All stats from NST)

    Here’s his GP, G/60, and primary P/60 over the years:

    11/12 BUF: 27, 0.61, 1.22
    11/12 VAN: 17, 0.35, 0.70

    12/13 VAN: 39, 0.65, 0.78

    13/14 VAN: 73, 0.89, 1.57

    14/15 VAN: 42, 1.09, 1.57

    15/16 EDM: 36, 0.42, 0.70

    16/17 EDM: 79, 0.48, 1.03

    17/18 EDM: 74, 0.57, 0.89
    (0.62 2ndA/60)

    18/19 EDM: 79, 0.69, 1.09

    19/20 EDM: 44, 1.16, 1.61
    (0.72 2A)

    Looks like a lot of replacement level scoring. I added in the 2nd assists in the years where it was significant and made his total P/60 much higher. Every other year, his second assists average roughly between 0.25 and 0.40 per 60 mins.

    Some nice years in there like his last two seasons in VAN. In 13/14, He played 700 mins away from the Sedins and Kesler. 48 mins with the Sedins and just over 100 with Kesler. His usual centre was Brad Richardson, with 400 mins of TOI.

    In 14/15, his two most common Cs were Brad Richardson and Shawn Matthias. 200+ mins with each of them and 125 mins with Sedin.

    I found his 5v5 SH% trends really interesting:

    11/12: 9.09, 5.56 (BUF, VAN)

    12/13: 12.20

    13/14: 14.94

    14/15: 18.37

    15/16: 7.50

    16/17: 6.67

    17/18: 8.75

    18/19: 11.76

    19/20: 19.70

    He seems to pop off every few years for multiple seasons at a time and then cool off for multiple seasons. Seems like we might get one more good year before he cools off after likely moving down the lineup in year or two.

    Those VAN years are quite impressive considering his line mates. He’s had one great year in EDM thats been buoyed by amazing line mates and the best shooting percentage of his career to date.

    Kassian’s physical gifts (speed, size) plus his gritensity and SH% spikes have helped keep him in the league. He’s an NHL player but there’s been a few too many years where he hasn’t quite looked the part of one.

    Kassian played extensively with the Sedins when in Vancouver. He got zoomed just like is happening now.

  80. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    Nuge 3.87 (1-1-2 in 31 minutes)
    Leon Draisaitl 3.09 (10-17-27 in 523 minutes)
    Jujhar Khaira 2.68 (1-0-1 in 22 minutes)
    Josh Archibald 2.56 (2-1-3 in 70 minutes)
    Zack Kassian 2.48 (12-12-24 in 581 minutes)
    Sam Gagner 1.85 (0-1-1 in 32 minutes)
    Alex Chiasson 1.3 (one assist in 46 minutes)
    Joakim Nygard 1.1 (0-1-1 in 54 minutes)
    James Neal 0.61 (1-1-2 in 195 minutes)

    To add some additional context here, what was McDavid’s P/60 and the on ice SF% and GF% with these wingers:

    Player ——-TOI with — P/60 – McD P/60 – SF% – GF%
    Nuge —— (31 minutes) 3.87 – 1.93 48.48 75.00
    Draisaitl- (523 minutes) 3.09 – 2.86 44.43 47.76
    Khaira —- (22 minutes) 2.68 – 2.68 52.17 100.0
    Archibald- (70 minutes) 2.56 – 3.42 43.08 80.00
    Kassian – (581 minutes) 2.48 – 2.99 48.30 55.22
    Gagner — (32 minutes) 1.85 – 1.85 55.00 33.33
    Chiasson- (46 minutes) 1.30 – 5.19 46.67 62.50
    Nygard — (54 minutes) 1.10 – 6.68 59.09 75.00
    Neal —– (195 minutes) 0.61 – 1.84 50.76 50.00

    Nygard definitely looks like he deserves a little more time with McDavid.

    The other wing could as easily be Kassian, Chiasson or Archibald.

  81. Reja says:

    duct tape and foil: Again, who were the non-McDavid 5×5 linemates? Mostly “identity line” buddies bad back Brodziak and Lucic. Kassian’s case is very unusual and looking at time prior to 2019 calendar year may not be representative of current performance. People who otherwise demand context in making judgements appear to be throwing that out the window on this player. Kass also plays a very important role on this team unless you want to ignore actual words spoken by actual players.

    Kass is an unusual case and there is risk, but I think both player and team realize that, and will come to a reasonable outcome.

    The curious case of Mama Kass he’s really matured as player the last 12 months the Refs are no longer stiffing him with goofy calls. I believe he hasn’t peaked and his true value we come playoff time. Sign the man Holland and while your at it sign Archie 2 yrs at 1.25 per.

  82. Dustylegnd says:

    godot10: Signing Kassian before he goes to market is not letting the market work.

    Belichek let McCourty and HIghtower go to the free agent market at the height of their careers rather than use the franchise tag, and he was able to re-sign them at their exact market value.

    The Patriots basically never use the franchise tag.They put a value on their players, and let them go (sometimes by trade, sometimes for nothing but the cap space and the compensatory draft picks) if they exceed that value in the market place.

    Have you ever stopped to consider he may sign for less than his free market value? U just assume it is going to be what 3.5 x 4 years, I will say it again…..we have no forward depth and have shown little ability in acquiring good NHL forwards….you clearly don’t like this player….so why don’t you shine some light on who they should replace him with…..no assets used to acquire the incoming player….who is it going to be? Enlighten me I am Waiting for his arrival Godot….

  83. Sunnyboy says:

    Priority roster deletions should be Nurse, Neal and then Larsson. Nurse will be overpaid, Neal is a plug, Larsson not good enough. Next TC needs to see a sorting of Lags, Pers, Jones and Bouch to see who makes the roster. Russell will play out his contract, Benning is an NHLer. Some of the first four should consider what a summer in Edmonton may mean to their landing spot and their salary.
    Agree on not overpaying Kass. Need to find the next Connolly for Nurse. Benson should be with the big club come October.

  84. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Kassian played extensively with the Sedins when in Vancouver. He got zoomed just like is happening now.

    No.

    In 13-14 and 14-15 Kassian played 1375 minutes at 5v5. He played 170 of those minutes with Henrick Sedin as his C. Extensively? I dunno.

    He had 4G and 0A in those 170 minutes – 1.41 P/60. That means his P/60without Henrick was 1.94.

    His most common linemates those years were:
    Brad Richardson 687 min
    David Booth 410 min
    Shawn Matthias 303 min
    Chris Higgins 185 min
    Daniel Sedin 183 min
    Henrick Sedin 170 min

    Funny thing, his P/60 was 1.88. Henrick and Daniel’s were 1.81 and 1.78.

    Not zoomed.

    Edit: It’s actually fairly remarkable, scoring 1.94 P/60 without the Sedins, with your most common line mates 1.34, 1.23 and 1.51 P/60.

  85. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Kassian played extensively with the Sedins when in Vancouver. He got zoomed just like is happening now.

    When he beat the shit out of Ben Eager. I thought this is a man you don’t want going red on unless your willing to receive.

  86. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd: Have you ever stopped to consider he may sign for less than his free market value? U just assume it is going to be what 3.5 x 4 years, I will say it again…..we have no forward depth and have shown little ability in acquiring good NHL forwards….you clearly don’t like this player….so why don’t you shine some light on who they should replace him with…..no assets used to acquire the incoming player….who is it going to be?Enlighten me I am Waiting for his arrival Godot….

    The OIlers are never going to have any forward depth if they keep overpaying players for what they can actually do on a sustainable basis.

  87. Cassandra says:

    There are three permanent things about this board.

    1) People complain about the team being hamstrung by bad contracts.
    2) People say we should re-sign our players at high prices because that is what it costs.
    3) These are the same people.

    The idea that the Oilers should sign Kassian at market value is ludicrous, indicative of an inability to think through the situation. Namely.

    1) Kassian is not unique. Nothing about about what he does is irreplaceable. The Oilers don’t need him. If he got hurt tomorrow, they would play someone else and everything would be fine. We all know this, don’t pretend that we don’t.

    2) You should never pay so-called market value in an auction for something that is not actually unique. The winner’s curse is real.

    3) In Kassian’s particular case there is absolutely no reason for the Oilers to pay market value. The Oilers have something that no other team can offer, the opportunity to play with McDavid. Opportunity has value and teams should trade it for money. If they don’t, they don’t know what they are doing.

    4) If you think that the Oilers should pay Kassian and whatever price he is going to be paid, for whatever term it is going to be, it is only because you have talked yourself into it. If Kassian won’t sign for a discount now wait until he will.

    • Scungilli Slushy says:

      Players in the top echelon of pugilism that can skate and play hockey- Kassian is an NHL quality player- and play with skill are indeed rare. Very rare.

      Doesn’t mean you should overpay, but as I commented before if the poster team of skill first looked for big tough players enough said, it’s a real concern on the ice.

  88. Material Elvis says:

    who: Why do we have to make that assumption?
    Is anyone unhappy with his play over the last calendar year?
    What makes you so sure he can’t maintain his current level of production for the next 3 years?
    It’s almost as if some posters here are hoping he fails.

    Something about players going off a cliff at age 30 makes me hesitant. Larsson’s last two seasons were poor. He has a back that acts up from time to time and won’t get better with age. He’s not an agile skater and won’t become more agile past age 30. I’m not hoping he fails but there is no way in hell that I would take the risks associated with keeping him in his 30’s.

  89. Material Elvis says:

    Dustylegnd: i don’t want to sign him for 4 years I would like to sign him for a series of 1 year contracts until he is no longer useful and then drop him off on the side of the road, but that is not how free markets work

    If this team had any semblance of forward depth or at least some potential top 6 talent in the minors they could play hard ball with Zach and if required just move on…by all reports he is loved by his teammates, has put up very impressive 5 x 5 scoring numbers and can play physical. The clock is ticking on this team …..we need more real NHL players not less….Kassian is a real living bonafide NHL player

    We need NHL players on value contracts so we can add more talent and win a Cup. Signing career bottom six players to multi year deals is a recipe for failure. For every one success story you can provide, I can counter with ten failures.

    And I get that he was loved by his teammates but so was Lucic (and most fighters for that matter). That doesn’t mean you should sign him. They will love his replacement if he helps them win.

  90. Munny says:

    hags9k:
    “Here’s my thoughts:
    Joakim Nygard—Connor McDavid—Josh Archibald
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
    Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Zack Kassian
    Tyler Benson—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson/Sam Gagner”

    LT did you trade Neal?

    I was wondering the same thing when reading the article…

    LT, what did you do with Neal, lol?

  91. defmn says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I can’t remember where (maybe ON) but there was a Jones interview and he stated he prefers LD. I imagine it matters less in the A where he can dominate, but at the NHL his first priority must be just to stick and it’s easier on your forehand.

    I didn’t read that interview but thanks. I still think he looks more comfortable on the right and I know it is generally easier on the forehand but there are exceptions.

    It will be interesting to me to see which of Bear or Jones has the better career long term. Bear looks to be that guy this season but I am not convinced that the whole story has been told quite yet.

  92. jtblack says:

    Cassandra:
    There are three permanent things about this board.

    1) People complain about the team being hamstrung by bad contracts.
    2) People say we should re-sign our players at high prices because that is what it costs.
    3) These are the same people.

    The idea that the Oilers should sign Kassian at market value is ludicrous, indicative of an inability to think through the situation.Namely.

    1) Kassian is not unique.Nothing about about what he does is irreplaceable.The Oilers don’t need him.If he got hurt tomorrow, they would play someone else and everything would be fine.We all know this, don’t pretend that we don’t.

    2) You should never pay so-called market value in an auction for something that is not actually unique.The winner’s curse is real.

    3) In Kassian’s particular case there is absolutely no reason for the Oilers to pay market value.The Oilers have something that no other team can offer, the opportunity to play with McDavid. Opportunity has value and teams should trade it for money.If they don’t, they don’t know what they are doing.

    4) If you think that the Oilers should pay Kassian and whatever price he is going to be paid, for whatever term it is going to be, it is only because you have talked yourself into it.If Kassian won’t sign for a discount now wait until he will.

    +1

  93. Lowetide says:

    Munny: I was wondering the same thing when reading the article…

    LT, what did you do with Neal?

    I can’t play him. He is scoring .76 points per 60 at five on five, and playing with quality people. He doesn’t PK and the coach is giving him an average of about 2.4 minutes a game on the PP over the last nine games. He has one PP goal in those nine games.

    I understand he might be hurt, or in a slump. But coming out of the break they have to move on until he earns the spot.

  94. duct tape and foil says:

    jp: No.

    Edit: It’s actually fairly remarkable, scoring 1.94 P/60 without the Sedins, with your most common line mates 1.34, 1.23 and 1.51 P/60.

    …and being drunk half the time.

    We really have 3 Kassians, all of who are big, fast, talented and mean.

    1) young wild substance abuser (BUF, VAN, MTL)

    2) sobering up 4th liner who was getting his act together but hated by the league and shunned by TMAC

    3) mature, clean middle 6 guy who is increasingly respected by his coaches and the league in spite of the history

    Which one do you get for the next 3 years? Acting like Kass has a consistent story line through out his career is misleading. His career averages are essentially useless (what’s the adjusted P/60 for playing drunk?) and only used by people with a bone to pick.

  95. jtblack says:

    Reja: Who stops him from getting to his spots surely not you.

    Surely not me. .. again. uh ok.

    WG answered it in an earlier post. Nobody is calling Perron a Power Forward …. except you.

    What is correct, is he is having a dynamite year and has been excellent the last 3 years. Very underrated.

  96. Harpers Hair says:

    Cassandra:
    There are three permanent things about this board.

    1) People complain about the team being hamstrung by bad contracts.
    2) People say we should re-sign our players at high prices because that is what it costs.
    3) These are the same people.

    The idea that the Oilers should sign Kassian at market value is ludicrous, indicative of an inability to think through the situation.Namely.

    1) Kassian is not unique.Nothing about about what he does is irreplaceable.The Oilers don’t need him.If he got hurt tomorrow, they would play someone else and everything would be fine.We all know this, don’t pretend that we don’t.

    2) You should never pay so-called market value in an auction for something that is not actually unique.The winner’s curse is real.

    3) In Kassian’s particular case there is absolutely no reason for the Oilers to pay market value.The Oilers have something that no other team can offer, the opportunity to play with McDavid. Opportunity has value and teams should trade it for money.If they don’t, they don’t know what they are doing.

    4) If you think that the Oilers should pay Kassian and whatever price he is going to be paid, for whatever term it is going to be, it is only because you have talked yourself into it.If Kassian won’t sign for a discount now wait until he will.

    It may bother some when I use the Canucks as an example but here goes anyway.

    Vancouver picked up Tanner Pearson in a trade that rid them of Erik Gudbranson.

    While his cap hit is $3.75 million, he is outscoring Kassian with 14 goals and 37 points to Kassians 13 goals and 28 points.

    And Pearson does not play with the best player in the world.

    So not only did Vancouver get rid of a toxic contract but they also acquired a better player.

    Is there are reason that a team with a good pro scouting department can’t move a surplus defenseman and find a better player than Kassian at likely less money?

  97. duct tape and foil says:

    Lowetide: I can’t play him. He is scoring .76 points per 60 at five on five, and playing with quality people. He doesn’t PK and the coach is giving him an average of about 2.4 minutes a game on the PP over the last nine games. He has one PP goal in those nine games.

    I understand he might be hurt, or in a slump. But coming out of the break they have to move on until he earns the spot.

    You know he’s been playing on a broken toe right?

  98. npanciroli says:

    I feel like we should sign Kassian then trade him to the Leafs for Johnsson or Kapanen, they have no grit. Dubas is terrible so I could see him doing it.

  99. Lowetide says:

    duct tape and foil: You know he’s been playing on a broken toe right?

    Yes and hopefully it’s healing. However, the Oilers need more from that spot.

  100. duct tape and foil says:

    Harpers Hair: It may bother some when I use the Canucks as an example but here goes anyway.

    Vancouver picked up Tanner Pearson in a trade that rid them of Erik Gudbranson.

    While his cap hit is $3.75 million, he is outscoring Kassian with 14 goals and 37 points toKassians 13 goals and 28 points.

    And Pearson does not play with the best player in the world.

    So not only did Vancouver get rid of a toxic contract but they also acquired a better player.

    Is there are reason that a team with a good pro scouting department can’t move a surplus defenseman and find a better player than Kassian at likely less money?

    I don’t ordinarily respond to you as your only purpose here is to drive traffic through trolling. But shooting fishing in a barrel is occasionally amusing:

    Kassian 5×5 = 2.32 p/60 (mostly top line with McDavid) and 55% GF%

    Pearson 5×5 = 1.81 p/60 (mostly top line with Horvat) and 45% GF%

    So Kass provides better ES top line scoring, better defense and for essentially half the salary.

  101. duct tape and foil says:

    Lowetide: Yes and hopefully it’s healing. However, the Oilers need more from that spot.

    Agree but there is a reason for the recent numbers.

  102. leadfarmer says:

    It amazes me how many people compare Kassian to other player points alone
    He’s a nuclear deterrent that plays very physical and can play with skill. Not a lot of them out there
    Now you may not feel a nuclear deterrent is a useful skill but it’s clear that the league does as you hear every offseason there is a team that feels they are a pushover (like leafs when they play Bruins)
    I’m not saying that we should pay him what the ask is but he does not have many comparisons out there
    Now I don’t like how he handled the TkaCooke situation but if he’s preoccupying TkaCooke so TkaCooke can’t throw cheap shots and Mcdavid well I’m cool with that
    I like how DSF moves his goalposts and completely skipped Ferland who is about the closest comparison I can think of and Kassian doesn’t have injury history and is a better skater
    I just hope they don’t do 4 years and don’t give him a NMC and NTC like Nucks did
    So while Kassians production can be replaced by a cheaper player his physical game and production can’t

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Who do we ned to protect?

    McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Yamamoto

    Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones.

    Let Larsson go UFA and signhim after the expansion draft?

    This assume Nuge is signed prior to the expansion draft.

    There are too many variables to really know who will receive the last few protected spots.

    Will Larsson and/or Nuge be re-signed prior?

    Will Benson run with his opportunity and force a “protected slot”?

    Have we seen the best of Caleb Jones (a serviceable 3rd pairing guy) or does he progress to top 4 and require protection? Same with Lagesson.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Just over a year ago, Kassian was not far removed from being a healthy scratch.

    He was given an opportunity on the top line – some/many saw it as a “pump and dump”.

    Did it turn in to a “pump and pay”?

    • tileguy says:

      “Pump and Keep”
      Find good players, keep good players. Scrivens for Kassian, myself I think he is worth 2.5-2.75 x 4, but would not be unhappy at 3.33×3 either.

  105. leadfarmer says:

    Years ago I was saying the name of the game is speed speed speed
    Get players that can play the game that way
    And it happened
    Now the question is how do you counter that speed
    If you are playing Makar or Hughes in a 7 game series how do you counter that speed
    And my answer is speed and size
    This is why Kassian is important
    You dump the puck into Hughes or Makars corner and send Kassian in to toss them around
    By game 3 they will be hearing footsteps every time they touch the puck
    As long as request is reasonable 3 per 3 I’m cool with signing

    • tileguy says:

      Me to.

    • Scungilli Slushy says:

      I’m certain players are about things like that. Yes they play through whatever, or most do, but the idea of playing a ‘heavy’ team that also has skill is not the first choice for skill players.

      Chiarelli understood this, but couldn’t find the players that could skate and had size and skill. Too many one dimensional types IMO.

      His decision making has a flawed priority list. I like Holland’s much better. The team is faster, more skilled and still has jam.

    • godot10 says:

      Kassian is playing with McDavid. So instead of a rush entry, is your argument that McDavid should play dump and chase?

  106. Lowetide says:

    duct tape and foil: Agree but there is a reason for the recent numbers.

    Yes, but he was poor at five on five scoring last year and his points per 60 this season are WORSE despite playing with McDavid. That’s got to end.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8471707

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Signing Kassian before he goes to market is not letting the market work.

    Belichek let McCourty and HIghtower go to the free agent market at the height of their careers rather than use the franchise tag, and he was able to re-sign them at their exact market value.

    The Patriots basically never use the franchise tag.They put a value on their players, and let them go (sometimes by trade, sometimes for nothing but the cap space and the compensatory draft picks) if they exceed that value in the market place.

    I like that idea because it’s fair both ways. Insulting players is easy still in the NHL – the ‘good guy’ problem.

    To say we value you, but this is our situation, go see what’s out there for you (in a specified timeframe) and decide what you want to do.

    If you want to come back this is the contract.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Just over a year ago, Kassian was not far removed from being a healthy scratch.

    He was given an opportunity on the top line – some/many saw it as a “pump and dump”.

    Did it turn in to a “pump and pay”?

    Well i was saying he should be playing high in the lineup that entire time
    Also the combination of Ricki D and Lucic made our entire bottom 6 results pretty meaningless
    See Ryan Strome for details

  109. duct tape and foil says:

    Lowetide: Yes, but he was poor at five on five scoring last year and his points per 60 this season are WORSE despite playing with McDavid. That’s got to end.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8471707

    Sure but we all know he was not exactly Plan A. His numbers are far superior to anything Lucic would have created and his PP goals won us a lot of games early in the year. We had no veteran wingers and got good leadership and PP scoring before he got hurt instead of the poisonous Lucic contract and selfish brooding.

    That said you try move him every summer if you can at any reasonable price.

  110. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: I can’t play him. He is scoring .76 points per 60 at five on five, and playing with quality people. He doesn’t PK and the coach is giving him an average of about 2.4 minutes a game on the PP over the last nine games. He has one PP goal in those nine games.

    I understand he might be hurt, or in a slump. But coming out of the break they have to move on until he earns the spot.

    Interesting.

    Neal is clearly an upgrade over Lucic, but still.might be replacement level.

    Last 35 Games. Even Strength …..

    4 Goals 2 Assists.

  111. jp says:

    duct tape and foil:

    Right now we have Kass, Chase and Neal as physical leaders. The latter two are near the end of their careers but are still useful for now.

    Chiasson is not quite 4 months older than Kassian.

  112. dinger says:

    Cassandra,

    Excellent post.

  113. leadfarmer says:

    duct tape and foil: I don’t ordinarily respond to you as your only purpose here is to drive traffic through trolling. But shooting fishing in a barrel is occasionally amusing:

    Kassian 5×5 = 2.32 p/60 (mostly top line with McDavid) and 55% GF%

    Pearson 5×5 = 1.81 p/60 (mostly top line with Horvat) and 45% GF%

    So Kass provides better ES top line scoring, better defense and for essentially half the salary.

    Exactly
    Deceptive statistics feed strikes again
    Now which player gets 1:42 of pp time per game and which gets 25 seconds
    Hmmmm.
    Vancouver gets a ridiculous amount of pp time which will decrease later in the season

  114. who says:

    Material Elvis: Something about players going off a cliff at age 30 makes me hesitant.Larsson’s last two seasons were poor.He has a back that acts up from time to time and won’t get better with age.He’s not an agile skater and won’t become more agile past age 30.I’m not hoping he fails but there is no way in hell that I would take the risks associated with keeping him in his 30’s.

    ?????????
    Larrson? I thought we were talking about Kassian.

  115. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In 18/19 when Kassian played without McDavid ranked 223rd in even strength goals, 433rd in even strength points.

    He also asked for a trade.

    That is the player Kassian is because there is only one McDavid.

    I like him and want him as an Oiler.

    If he can cash in on his results with McDavid that’s great for him, but not for the team that signs him .

    But that is not the player Kassian is. It’s literally the worst snapshot of Kassian without McDavid.

    I’ve said repeatedly I fear Kassian’s next contract. I expect it will be an overpay.

    But you and a number of others are going over the top on what Kassian actually is/has been. Those numbers are absolutely not representative of Kassian’s career, or even his time in Edmonton.

  116. tileguy says:

    duct tape and foil,

    Right now we have Kass, Chase and Neal as physical leaders. +1
    Now add a snarly Larson and Nurse, oh and JJ as well and heavy playoff hockey is here, toot toot, it’s 2017 all over again.

  117. who says:

    leadfarmer: Well i was saying he should be playing high in the lineup that entire time
    Also the combination of Ricki D and Lucic made our entire bottom 6 results pretty meaningless
    See Ryan Strome for details

    There were a few of us who saw the talent in Kassian. Too bad TMac wasn’t one of them.
    Of course a year ago OP was declaring that Zak was a great 4th liner but moving him up the lineup would cause his game to suffer and would hurt the team. 🤔
    I would take OP’s opinions on this player with a large grain of salt.

  118. hunter1909 says:

    tileguy:
    duct tape and foil,

    Right now we have Kass, Chase and Neal as physical leaders.+1
    Now add a snarly Larson and Nurse, oh and JJ as well and heavy playoff hockey is here, toot toot, it’s 2017 all over again.

    …Meanwhile this blog has a contingent of hockey social justice types who seriously think the refs will protect the integrity of regular season officiating once the playoffs start.

    And that somehow the Oilers can shed themselves of all those ruffians like Kassian etc while they opine on the question of whether or not Nylander wants to be traded to the Oilers lol

  119. hunter1909 says:

    who: There were a few of us who saw the talent in Kassian. Too bad TMac wasn’t one of them.

    TMac didn’t exactly work wonders with Puljujarvi either. And come to think of it he really got schooled bad vs Anaheim of all teams when the big bad Quacks started playing their desperation mind games.

    I wonder what he’s doing now?

  120. JimmyV1965 says:

    So, what does everyone think about the potential Kassian contract?

  121. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    So, what does everyone think about the potential Kassian contract?

    It’s real and it’s spectacular.

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The oilers will have a lot of young players coming into the league over the next few years as the roster becomes set.

    Having strong support is very important. Sather always did that. Because it is a rough game and it matters, to confidence and team morale.

    The thing is there can’t be many players paid for security.

    The answer is to be rid of everyone not playing a significant role that is paid above replacement.

    Russel Chiasson Neal Koskinen

    Those are the fellows hurting the most. Move them( maybe not Koski) sign the security and and add talented speed and goaler quality. Bam Cup!!

  123. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965:
    So, what does everyone think about the potential Kassian contract?

    The real question is how will it affect the Oilers ability to sign Hall this summer. 😉

  124. Dustylegnd says:

    godot10: The OIlers are never going to have any forward depth if they keep overpaying players for what they can actually do on a sustainable basis.

    so your answer is no then, you can’t fathom that the Oilers may get Kassian for a fair price

    As I thought, you have no answers regarding the player the Oilers bring in for no asset cost for less money and produces more points …..as you were

  125. Harpers Hair says:

    duct tape and foil: I don’t ordinarily respond to you as your only purpose here is to drive traffic through trolling. But shooting fishing in a barrel is occasionally amusing:

    Kassian 5×5 = 2.32 p/60 (mostly top line with McDavid) and 55% GF%

    Pearson 5×5 = 1.81 p/60 (mostly top line with Horvat) and 45% GF%

    So Kass provides better ES top line scoring, better defense and for essentially half the salary.

    This is nonsense.

    Horvat’s line is the tough matchup line.

    Vancouver’s first line is Pettersons.

    Want to match up Kassian against JT Miller?

    Didn’t think so.

  126. Dustylegnd says:

    JimmyV1965:
    So, what does everyone think about the potential Kassian contract?

    Have you not been paying attention? We are going to let him go for nothing, then our crack management team is going to find a player for no asset cost and this player is going to be younger, score more, play for less money and sign for 2 years

    As you know its every NHLers dream to miss the playoffs 12 of 13 years while spending winters in Edmonton and living in a fish bowl of unforgiving media

    Book it

  127. hunter1909 says:

    Dustylegnd: As you know its every NHLers dream to miss the playoffs 12 of 13 years while spending winters in Edmonton and living in a fish bowl of unforgiving media

    It could be worse. Edmonton could be managed/coached by embittered former support players from a dynasty hell bent to prove that, among other things, the NHL isn’t a development league for players(only management/coaching).

  128. hunter1909 says:

    Dustylegnd: our crack management team

    Say what you like, but that “crack” management team jettisoned Lucic for a player who helped put the Oilers in 1st place for 30 games.

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: This is nonsense.

    Horvat’s line is the tough matchup line.

    Vancouver’s first line is Pettersons.

    Want to match up Kassian against JT Miller?

    Didn’t think so.

    The question really is do NHL teams value pushback?

    Ferland Roussel Myers Pearson.

    So I’d say yes they do.

    Signing one guy like that regardless of everything else isn’t a team cap killer. Signing 4 may be a problem.

    You’ll disagree about the players I mentioned, but that’s how I see them. None are any better players than Kassian and Kassian is a plus skater.

    The true talent likes to ‘feel that they are protected even if it’s a fallacy.

    It’s sort of like when you go to a rough bar with some people that you think are tough. Whether they are or not in reality which you don’t know, given what goes down, doesn’t mean that you don’t feel a few inches taller and more confident.

    Human nature in a dangerous environment.

  130. leadfarmer says:

    Other than maybe Lavoie I dont see a fast forward that can play with reckless abandon in our system that could replace Kassian.
    Kassian is that mythical Lucic player we have spent decades wasting countless draft picks on, not to mention actual signing Lucic who was not the Lucic player we were looking for.
    Now 4 mil is definitely too much. 4 years is too long. 2 year and 2.5 per is not enough. So probably somewhere in the middle of 3 per 3 is ok

  131. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer: Kassian is that mythical Lucic player we have spent decades wasting countless draft picks on, not to mention actual signing Lucic who was not the Lucic player we were looking for.

    Quote of the month!

  132. hunter1909 says:

    Unless Holland understands the salary cap this team is doomed.

    All of this discussion is entertaining but rings a bit like that “Who will put the Bell on the Cat” story where mice decide to put a bell on the cat so they can hear it coming.

  133. defmn says:

    The discussion about what Kassian is worth is really just an extension of all discussions about how bad Edmonton’s drafting and development has been for years.

    If those things had been taken care of there would be no angst about how much the contract will cost or if he should be kept because there would be in house alternatives that would allow management to offer a reasonable contract and the player to take it or move on.

    Because none of that was done I have little doubt that Holland will have to pay more than he wants just as he will this summer for a UFA replacement who may or may not work out if he is unable to re-sign Kassian.

    This is us and it isn’t going to change for a couple more contracts yet because there is more than one spot in need of filling with no lineup of homegrown talent to fill them.

    I hope we all remember this when the number and term is announced because the current management team is still operating from a position of weakness that it inherited.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    Konovalov stop 19 of 21 in a 5-2 win.

    Brogerg played almost 18 minutes and had 3 shots – very good arrow on the ice time. A smidge more ice than Berglund which is rare.

    Quiet night for Brind’Amour – not even a shot on net I don’t think.

    Was excited to see Moncton a few minutes from a shutout but, alas, Rodrigue the back-up.

    Go Condors.

  135. who says:

    Harpers Hair: This is nonsense.

    Horvat’s line is the tough matchup line.

    Vancouver’s first line is Pettersons.

    Want to match up Kassian against JT Miller?

    Didn’t think so.

    Miller is the better player. No question.
    Of course I don’t think anyone is suggesting we pay Kassian 5.25 million per year either.

  136. tileguy says:

    If they start using* that streaking puck graphics I am seeing during this AS game I am going to not watch. There, take that Bettman. It looks like snakes on the ice.

  137. Dustylegnd says:

    hunter1909: Say what you like, but that “crack” management team jettisoned Lucic for a player who helped put the Oilers in 1st place for 30 games.

    Hell ya we are 1 for 300 in the last 15 years

  138. linkfromhyrule says:

    tileguy:
    If they start using* that streaking puck graphics I am seeing during this AS game I am going to not watch. There, take that Bettman. It looks like snakes on the ice.

    Every thing they did to “enhance” that broadcast was distracting and/or irrelevant. At times the stats overlaid on the game were blocking out the play. It’s awful.

    So of course we’ll be seeing it next season,

  139. tileguy says:

    Ron McLean and Bettman blowing each other on how great that woman’s game was last nite. Why can’t people be honest?

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner with the start on back to back nights – he’s been playing well lately.

    Top line starts – Benson/Granlund/Currie

    Top D-pairing – Lowe/Bouchard

    Will be tough to beat this team two nights in a row in their own barn.

    Go Condors.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    No Benning tonight – nothing wrong – “part of the process, part of the plan” – likely called to Edmonton shortly.

  142. leadfarmer says:

    hunter1909: Quote of the month!

    This is why anyone who posts Kassians production next to Archibalds production is clueless to why they are going to sign the player.
    Hes coming back to crash bang hit disturb and occupy the TkaCookes of the league time and energy and then post points.
    As a points guy he’s very meh,
    As a shit disturber energy guy he’s very good

  143. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Burger Bob still didn’t tell him before he was hired.

    Truth is truth, even if its nasty. 🙂

    Yup
    Meant about the 1 month part…

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Malone, McLeod, Lagesson, Maksimov, Day start the PP.

  145. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Skinner with the start on back to back nights – he’s been playing well lately.

    Top line starts – Benson/Granlund/Currie

    Top D-pairing – Lowe/Bouchard

    Will be tough to beat this team two nights in a row in their own barn.

    Go Condors.

    I think the b2b nights theory has been mostly debunked in favor of total at bats theory

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Kassian played extensively with the Sedins when in Vancouver. He got zoomed just like is happening now.

    He played under 300 minutes with each Sedin over his last 3 seasons in Vancouver.

    Some, not majority.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Granlund loses the puck in the slot off a slash but it pops to Currie who burries the shot.

    Benson with the second apple.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    Esposito deflects a Lowe shot and its 2-0 Condors.

    Bouch will get the 2nd apple as he played give and go with Lowe at the point.

  149. John Chambers says:

    Drai just cashed one on a feed from Tkachuk

  150. v4ance says:

    Dustylegnd: Have you not been paying attention? We are going to let him go for nothing, then our crack management team is going to find a player for no asset cost and this player is going to be younger, score more, play for less money and sign for 2 years

    As you know its every NHLers dream to miss the playoffs 12 of 13 years while spending winters in Edmonton and living in a fish bowl of unforgiving media

    Book it

    If the options are signing Kassian to a 4 year $3.5M AAV contract or letting him go as a UFA, I choose letting him go.

    He is a good player but if he regresses at all, he loses his spot alongside McDavid and then you’re paying a 3rd line agitator, 2nd line money for a year or two too long. That’s exactly the mistake that teams make on players leading to perma-rebuilds. Too many over paid vets, not enough cheaper players in their prime.

    He’s not a nuclear deterrent at all, he’s a shadow of what Lucic was. He has never scored as well as Lucic, he has never been as intimidating as Lucic in his prime…

    The players who age well into their 30’s tend to be elite at one thing or another. Perron and Ovechkin age well since they have elite shots. A player like Martin Gelinas, Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall will age well because of elite skating. For Chara and Pronger, size and experience using body position to nullify forecheckers will keep/kept them in the league for decades. Kassian is good at everything but he’s not really elite at anything.

    If we go by 5v5 points/60, Woodguy showed lots of players do as well as Kassian on McDavid’s wing. Khaira scores and growls at opponents just as well as Kassian but doesn’t skate as well. Archibald scores and skates as well as Kassian but doesn’t have any physical intimidation. Neal can grind the boards and shoot as well or better than Kassian but doesn’t have the skating to keep up with the play.

    The only argument for re-signing Kassian at an elevated price is that we don’t have anyone in the pipeline who can do everything he can do in the same package. But that still doesn’t justify re-signing him. A good GM should be able to get a younger cheaper version of Kassian if they look at the waiver wire or on some other organization’s AHL team.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors dominated – some much offensive zone pressure – draw a PP.

    Great PP – tons of puck movement but no goal – just a Benson post.

  152. hunter1909 says:

    v4ance: A good GM should be able to get a younger cheaper version of Kassian if they look at the waiver wire or on some other organization’s AHL team.

    Assuming 10 GMs can be classified as “good”…

    Please can you name 10 “younger cheaper versions of Kassian”

    Forget about the waiver wire or AHL – You have the entire NHL to pick from.

  153. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: This is nonsense.

    Horvat’s line is the tough matchup line.

    Vancouver’s first line is Pettersons.

    Want to match up Kassian against JT Miller?

    Didn’t think so.

    Wholly smokes do you have a man crush on Miller they paid full price for him and all the propaganda you spew about one of your teams players will not turn this player into Sea Bass ( Cam Neely)

  154. leadfarmer says:

    v4ance: If the options are signing Kassian to a 4 year $3.5M AAV contract or letting him go as a UFA, I choose letting him go.

    He is a good player but if he regresses at all, he loses his spot alongside McDavid and then you’re paying a 3rd line agitator, 2nd line money for a year or two too long.That’s exactly the mistake that teams make on players leading to perma-rebuilds.Too many over paid vets, not enough cheaper players in their prime.

    He’s not a nuclear deterrent at all, he’s a shadow of what Lucic was.He has never scored as well as Lucic, he has never been as intimidating as Lucic in his prime…

    The players who age well into their 30’s tend to be elite at one thing or another.Perron and Ovechkin age well since they have elite shots.A player like Martin Gelinas, Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall will age well because of elite skating.For Chara and Pronger, size and experience using body position to nullify forecheckers will keep/kept them in the league for decades.Kassian is good at everything but he’s not really elite at anything.

    If we go by 5v5 points/60, Woodguy showed lots of players do as well as Kassian on McDavid’s wing.Khaira scores and growls at opponentsjust as well as Kassian but doesn’t skate as well.Archibald scores and skates as well as Kassian but doesn’t have any physical intimidation.Neal can grind the boards and shoot as well or better than Kassian but doesn’t have the skating to keep up with the play.

    The only argument for re-signing Kassian at an elevated price is that we don’t have anyone in the pipeline who can do everything he can do in the same package.But that still doesn’t justify re-signing him.A good GM should be able to get a younger cheaper version of Kassian if they look at the waiver wire or on some other organization’s AHL team.

    3-4 mil is most definitely not second line money

  155. OriginalPouzar says:

    Last night Condors killed off a 5 on 3 for almost 2 minutes – they just did it again, not quite as long but almost a minute.

    Bouch has 11 points in 14 games (well, 13 games and a period).

  156. who says:

    v4ance: If the options are signing Kassian to a 4 year $3.5M AAV contract or letting him go as a UFA, I choose letting him go.

    He is a good player but if he regresses at all, he loses his spot alongside McDavid and then you’re paying a 3rd line agitator, 2nd line money for a year or two too long.That’s exactly the mistake that teams make on players leading to perma-rebuilds.Too many over paid vets, not enough cheaper players in their prime.

    He’s not a nuclear deterrent at all, he’s a shadow of what Lucic was.He has never scored as well as Lucic, he has never been as intimidating as Lucic in his prime…

    The players who age well into their 30’s tend to be elite at one thing or another.Perron and Ovechkin age well since they have elite shots.A player like Martin Gelinas, Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall will age well because of elite skating.For Chara and Pronger, size and experience using body position to nullify forecheckers will keep/kept them in the league for decades.Kassian is good at everything but he’s not really elite at anything.

    If we go by 5v5 points/60, Woodguy showed lots of players do as well as Kassian on McDavid’s wing.Khaira scores and growls at opponentsjust as well as Kassian but doesn’t skate as well.Archibald scores and skates as well as Kassian but doesn’t have any physical intimidation.Neal can grind the boards and shoot as well or better than Kassian but doesn’t have the skating to keep up with the play.

    The only argument for re-signing Kassian at an elevated price is that we don’t have anyone in the pipeline who can do everything he can do in the same package.But that still doesn’t justify re-signing him.A good GM should be able to get a younger cheaper version of Kassian if they look at the waiver wire or on some other organization’s AHL team.

    Name the UFA, or waiver wire pick up, you can get for 3 million, that is better than Kassian?

  157. tileguy says:

    10-5 Pacific division over the Central. Which is the weak division again?

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: It may bother some when I use the Canucks as an example but here goes anyway.

    Vancouver picked up Tanner Pearson in a trade that rid them of Erik Gudbranson.

    While his cap hit is $3.75 million, he is outscoring Kassian with 14 goals and 37 points toKassians 13 goals and 28 points.

    And Pearson does not play with the best player in the world.

    So not only did Vancouver get rid of a toxic contract but they also acquired a better player.

    Is there are reason that a team with a good pro scouting department can’t move a surplus defenseman and find a better player than Kassian at likely less money?

    Not arguing against the overall point but Pearson gets close to 2 min of PP time per game and has 9 PPP.

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer,

    Sorry, but what exactly does Kassian deter?

  160. dessert1111 says:

    The more I think about it, the more I think we really need to get out of the Neal contract. I don’t think I would buy him out, but can we get rid of him with some salary retained? He has scored a lot on the PP but by eye Chiasson has been better in that spot.

    I’ll reiterate I would let Kassian walk if it’s more than 3×3. I think a lot of GMs have been slow to be smart and efficient in a salary cap environment.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: There were a few of us who saw the talent in Kassian. Too bad TMac wasn’t one of them.
    Of course a year ago OP was declaring that Zak was a great 4th liner but moving him up the lineup would cause his game to suffer and would hurt the team.
    I would take OP’s opinions on this player with a large grain of salt.

    I totally had that opinion and it seems I/it was wrong.

    That means I can’t have an opinion on reasonable contracts going forward?

  162. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    leadfarmer,

    Sorry, but what exactly does Kassian deter?

    Now I was expecting you to say something silly like that
    But when you watch the game on Wednesday you will notice that TkaCookes attention is being tied up with Kassian and not Mcdavid or Nuge
    Clearly that has value whether you like it or not.

    For some reason there is this belief on here that a physical player doesnt deter cheap shots because they happen regardless.
    But what do we know. We know from multiple interviews with smaller players (gagner, eberle in past) that they feel much more comfortable when there is a big body around.
    Having a guy around that occupies the attention of the heavies around the league is a benefit, many dont see it on here but its there and thats what Kassian is going to get paid for. Not his point production

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd: Have you not been paying attention? We are going to let him go for nothing, then our crack management team is going to find a player for no asset cost and this player is going to be younger, score more, play for less money and sign for 2 years

    Kailer Yamamoto?

    Tyler Benson?

    Josh Archibald?

  164. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I totally had that opinion and it seems I/it was wrong.

    That means I can’t have an opinion on reasonable contracts going forward?

    No.
    It just means we shouldn’t take your opinions as fact. No matter how certain you are about them.
    I do agree that Kassian, or any player, has limited value as a deterrent. I just think he’s a better hockey player than a lot of posters are giving him credit for.

  165. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Kailer Yamamoto?

    Tyler Benson?

    Josh Archibald?

    And this is why you have no understanding of the player.
    I would really like to see how Yamamoto or Archie responds when the refs lose control of the game. Which one of them is going to take Jordan Greenway on when he starts taking liberties with our players. He could probably take down Archie Yamamoto and Benson himself

  166. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Hypothetical scenario. Two similarly aged RWs are up for contract renewal with the Oiler.

    Both seem to have comparable numbers @ 1RW with McD. Let’s also say they would have similar performance by eye and by stats playing with McD in the future. Let’s say the would have comparable performance in the bottom 6 for the next 3-4 years. One is making 1M and the other is making 2M right In their current expiring UFA contracts. Player 1 has additional value as quality PKer. Player 2 has additional value of “toughness” (and a bit of crazy). Which is worth more during the course of a season and a playoff run? I guess if you have enough depth at PK and limited toughness, then the toughness would be the preferred option, and vice versa. But in a more general sense which “additional attribute” brings more to any team over the course of a year (including playoffs)?

    My feeling is the value of both is contingent on the rest of the line-up (what needs do they fill) and perhaps some intangibles (good in the room, respected by teammates, maybe even a “heart and soul” guy). Player #1 might get about a 20-30% raise (so 1.25M) for 2-3 years. Based on this hypothetical information, how much should Player #2 get for AAV and term?

  167. duct tape and foil says:

    Harpers Hair: This is nonsense.

    Horvat’s line is the tough matchup line.

    Vancouver’s first line is Pettersons.

    Want to match up Kassian against JT Miller?

    Didn’t think so.

    Go away click bait troll. We know your game.

  168. jp says:

    leadfarmer: I think the b2b nights theory has been mostly debunked in favor of total at bats theory

    Really?

    No question total ABs matter, but B2Bs don’t?

  169. leadfarmer says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Hypothetical scenario. Two similarly aged RWs are up for contract renewal with the Oiler.

    Both seem to have comparable numbers @ 1RW with McD. Let’s also say they would have similar performance by eye and by stats playing with McD in the future. Let’s say the would have comparable performance in the bottom 6 for the next 3-4 years. One is making 1M and the other is making 2M right In their current expiring UFA contracts. Player 1 has additional value as quality PKer. Player 2 has additional value of “toughness” (and a bit of crazy). Which is worth more during the course of a season and a playoff run? I guess if you have enough depth at PK and limited toughness, then the toughness would be the preferred option, and vice versa. But in a more general sense which “additional attribute” brings more to any team over the course of a year (including playoffs)?

    My feeling is the value of both is contingent on the rest of the line-up (what needs do they fill) and perhaps some intangibles (good in the room, respected by teammates, maybe even a “heart and soul” guy). Player #1 might get about a 20-30% raise (so 1.25M) for 2-3 years. Based on this hypothetical information, how much should Player #2 get for AAV and term?

    You need Pkers. You need physical players. You need passers. You need shooters. You need a wide variety of players and each have their value

  170. Bulging Twine says:

    Helpful points being made on the Kassian contract. Thanks guys.

    I’d like to suggest, and Leadfarmer briefly touched a little on it earlier:

    if the contract comes in at 3.25, that’s 3rd line money

  171. leadfarmer says:

    jp: Really?

    No question total ABs matter, but B2Bs don’t?

    Well they add to the total at bats rather quickly if you are playing them every game, but recently the athletic debunked the effect of having a goalie start b2b games with the effect being rather miniscule in itself

  172. jp says:

    tileguy:
    If they start using* that streaking puck graphics I am seeing during this AS game I am going to not watch. There, take that Bettman. It looks like snakes on the ice.

    It’s a hell of a lot better than the Fox Puck. But yeah, it’s not enhancing my experience.

  173. jp says:

    leadfarmer: Well they add to the total at bats rather quickly if you are playing them every game, but recently the athletic debunked the effect of having a goalie start b2b games with the effect being rather miniscule in itself

    Yeah they can be linked for sure I guess.

    Do you have a link to the Athletic article? Or remember the author.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Now I was expecting you to say something silly like that
    But when you watch the game on Wednesday you will notice that TkaCookes attention is being tied up with Kassian and not Mcdavid or Nuge
    Clearly that has value whether you like it or not.

    Sorry but, in my opinion, that is an awful example.

    Tkachuk has eaten Kassian’s lunch twice now – twice eliciting emotional responses from Kassian leading to large flame PP time and directly helping the flames win games.

    If anything, all this talk about “settling the score” is will reasonably lead to it being 3-0. Shit, Connor McDavid is talking about “settling the score”.

    Go win the game.

    What is Kassian detering in this game? I don’t recall McDavid ever having an issue with Tkachuk that is being deterred.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: No.
    It just means we shouldn’t take your opinions as fact. No matter how certain you are about them.
    I do agree that Kassian, or any player, has limited value as a deterrent. I just think he’s a better hockey player than a lot of posters are giving him credit for.

    I never expect my opinion to be taken as fact but I will state my case to defend my position even when others are expressing their opposite opinion as fact.

    That’s neither here nor there though – You expressed, essentially, that since my opinion was wrong on Kassian in the past, which I admit, anything in the future I posit regarding him should be disregarded – not exact words but the substance.

  176. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorry but, in my opinion, that is an awful example.

    Tkachuk has eaten Kassian’s lunch twice now – twice eliciting emotional responses from Kassian leading to large flame PP time and directly helping the flames win games.

    If anything, all this talk about “settling the score” is will reasonably lead to it being 3-0. Shit, Connor McDavid is talking about “settling the score”.

    Go win the game.

    What is Kassian detering in this game?I don’t recall McDavid ever having an issue with Tkachuk that is being deterred.

    Mcdavid not having an issue with Tkachuk
    Have you thought that may be because Tkachuk is preoccupied
    Or do you think that TkaCooke is an angel that only shows off his dark powers when other heavies are around

  177. leadfarmer says:

    jp: Yeah they can be linked for sure I guess.

    Do you have a link to the Athletic article? Or remember the author.

    https://theathletic.com/1450527/2019/12/12/why-nhl-coaches-need-to-revisit-the-idea-that-goalies-shouldnt-start-on-back-to-back-nights/

    I think it was this one. I’m on my work computer so cant log on to make sure it is the correct article

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: And this is why you have no understanding of the player.
    I would really like to see how Yamamoto or Archie responds when the refs lose control of the game.Which one of them is going to take Jordan Greenway on when he starts taking liberties with our players.He could probably take down Archie Yamamoto and Benson himself

    Not agreeing with you on a “nuclear deterrent” issue, having a differing opinion that you means I have “no understanding of the player” – you are right, I am wrong.

    Are you getting at a reaction like Kass had the last time we played Calgary?

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Mcdavid not having an issue with Tkachuk
    Have you thought that may be because Tkachuk is preoccupied
    Or do you think that TkaCooke is an angel that only shows off his dark powers when other heavies are around

    Yup, Tkachuk has been pre-occupied helping his team win the game.

    I don’t recall McDavid ever having an issue with Tkachuk – Kassian or no Kassian.

    Tkachuk is no angel but, to this point, he was shown to be very smart, where the line is and how to help his team win games.

  180. v4ance says:

    To me, of course there is salary cap inflation over time but a salary cap range of $3.5 to $4 M is the bottom end 2nd liner or high end 3rd liner. The prime example is Brett Connolly who signed with FLA for $3.5 M and is basically 2nd line.

    If you weren’t willing to give Connelly $3.5M, then you shouldn’t give a lesser player in Kassian anything near that amount.

    That being said, Benson will likely eat Kassian’s lunch the instant he gets quality time with McDavid. He’ll be cheaper, younger and better.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    Currie rips home a one-time on a 4 on 3 PP.

    Benson up top to Lagesson over the Currie for the 3-1 goal.

  182. Numenius says:

    Fun all star game and nice to see the Pacific boys win.

    Last year Draisaitl looked tentative, as if he wasn’t sure he should be there.

    This year he looked like the all star he is. He knew he belonged.

  183. jp says:

    leadfarmer: https://theathletic.com/1450527/2019/12/12/why-nhl-coaches-need-to-revisit-the-idea-that-goalies-shouldnt-start-on-back-to-back-nights/

    I think it was this one.I’m on my work computer so cant log on to make sure it is the correct article

    That sure looks like the one. I just skimmed it but wow, seems like much ado about nothing (B2B being a bad thing). Thanks.

  184. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, Tkachuk has been pre-occupied helping his team win the game.

    I don’t recall McDavid ever having an issue with Tkachuk – Kassian or no Kassian.

    Tkachuk is no angel but, to this point, he was shown to be very smart, where the line is and how to help his team win games.

    As someone that keeps listing points/60 and comparing them to sub 6 foot players it is very clear you don’t have an understanding of the player or the league
    It is very clear that the NHL still values size and physicality even if you don’t
    There’s a reason you hear every off season a team is trying to get tougher after running into a team like the Bruins in the playoffs
    Kassians physicality is more valuable than his points
    Now I would personally not sign him to a 4 year contract but I understand why someone else would

  185. who says:

    v4ance:
    To me, of course there is salary cap inflation over time but a salary cap range of $3.5 to $4 M is the bottom end 2nd liner or high end 3rd liner.The prime example is Brett Connolly who signed with FLA for $3.5 M and is basically 2nd line.

    If you weren’t willing to give Connelly $3.5M, then you shouldn’t give a lesser player in Kassian anything near that amount.

    That being said, Benson will likely eat Kassian’s lunch the instant he gets quality time with McDavid.He’ll be cheaper, younger and better.

    I hope you’re right about Benson.
    But what skills does he bring that will allow him to eat Kassians lunch?
    He’s not as big. Doesn’t skate as well. Has a lower draft pedigree.
    He is supposedly good along the boards. But so is Kassian.
    I think the concensus is that he is a better passer with better vision. But he still has to prove it at the NHL level. And his skating may not allow him to do that.
    We’ll see when he gets here, but he’s a long way from a slam dunk.

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    Granny with the ENG and the Condors sweep and elite team in their own arena on back to back nights.

    This team is getting going as the rookie pros start to find their way.

    Here is the Currie PP Goal:

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1221288390219272192

  187. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Tkachuk has eaten Kassian’s lunch twice now

    Tkachuk’s face beating Kassian’s fists into submission counts as eating his lunch?

  188. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Question for you.
    Why do you hear coaches repeatedly say finish your check when it doesn’t give you GF.
    All these smart coaches and the game plan is finish your check
    Because at least I think it’s similar to in football running up the middle for 3 yards. Doesn’t do much on the scoresheet but when the later parts of the game come around or your in a 7 game series your opponent is exhausted and starts making mistakes and that’s when it finally but indirectly shows up on the scoresheet

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: As someone that keeps listing points/60 and comparing them to sub 6 foot players it is very clear you don’t have an understanding of the player or the league
    It is very clear that the NHL still values size and physicality even if you don’t
    There’s a reason you hear every off season a team is trying to get tougher after running into a team like the Bruins in the playoffs
    Kassians physicality is more valuable than his points
    Now I would personally not sign him to a 4 year contract but I understand why someone else would

    For sure, big and tough hockey – getting in on d-men and forcing quick plays and turnovers, wearing them down, etc. – that absolutely has value.

    I don’t see what that has to do with “being a nuclear deterrent” but, of course, I don’t know anything about the league or its players so, carry on thinking you are more knowledgeable than anyone else and your opinion is the right one always.

    I will carry on not engaging in conversations that demean me.

  190. leadfarmer says:

    hunter1909: Tkachuk’s face beating Kassian’s fists into submission counts as eating his lunch?

    You haven’t discovered bread gloves I take it.
    https://images.app.goo.gl/oyXH9Yjsd5aohZHaA

  191. jp says:

    v4ance: If the options are signing Kassian to a 4 year $3.5M AAV contract or letting him go as a UFA, I choose letting him go.

    He is a good player but if he regresses at all, he loses his spot alongside McDavid and then you’re paying a 3rd line agitator, 2nd line money for a year or two too long.

    leadfarmer: 3-4 mil is most definitely not second line money

    For some context on this, forwards by cap hit this season:

    1st line
    #1 McDavid $12.5M
    Median Kesler $6.875M (ha!!)
    #93 Foligno $5.5M

    2nd line
    #94 Zucker $5.5M
    Median Toffoli $4.6M
    #186 Cizikas $3.35M

    3rd line
    #187 Grabner $3.35M
    Median Weise $2.35M
    #279 Leivo $1.5M

    4th line
    #280 Ritchie $1.498M
    Median Joseph Anderson NJD $0.925M
    #373 Foote $0.925 (lotta players making 925k)

    And in scoring – these are last years full season numbers:

    1st line
    #1 Kucherov 128
    Median Radulov 72
    #93 Gallagher 52

    2nd line
    #94 Lee 51
    Median Ferland 40
    #186 Thomas 33

    3rd line
    #187 Lindblom 33
    Median Spezza 27
    #279 Kuraly 21

    4th line
    #280 Wagner 21
    Median Cogliano 17
    #373 Luff 11

    $3.5M would be a low low end 2nd line salary.

  192. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Tkachuk’s face beating Kassian’s fists into submission counts as eating his lunch?

    When it leads to the flames winning the game, yup.

  193. Victoria Oil says:

    tileguy:
    Ron McLean andBettmanblowing each other on how great that woman’s game was last nite. Why can’t people be honest?

    The women’s game was more entertaining than the first game tonight, which I thought was unwatchable. Thank goodness I taped it so that I could fast-forward.

  194. defmn says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Helpful points being made on the Kassian contract.Thanks guys.

    I’d like to suggest, and Leadfarmer briefly touched a little on it earlier:

    if the contract comes in at 3.25, that’s 3rd line money

    It’s a little more than 3rd line money imo.

    If you take a $83 mil cap as an example – and I am just guessing for one year so you could be right by the 3rd year, for example.

    50 mil for forwards (14)
    25 mil for dmen (7)
    7 mil for goal (2)

    Just leaves you with one million cushion which is tight.

    Take the 50 mil for forwards

    20 mil for 1st line
    16 mil for 2nd line
    8 mil for 3rd line
    4.5 mil for 4th line
    1.5 mil for PB

    There is your 50 mil.

    If you accept that the centre should make more than the wingers you are looking at something like

    2.5 – 3 – 2.5

    An average 3rd line winger makes 2.5 mil with a 83 mil cap.

    I will leave it to others to argue whether or not Kassian is average, below average or above average and, as I said the cap could go up after next season.

    Of course our cap is nowhere near 83 due to all the dead money from buyouts etc.

    • Bulging Twine says:

      Interesting breakdown. I would have to look at this more in depth. I like how you looked at it from a whole roster compilation point of view. Strategic. I guess this is what your ideal salary breakdown would be (and it shows the value added of entry level deals – Bouchard – as you get a discount on a roster spot).

  195. Ryan says:

    jp: That sure looks like the one. I just skimmed it but wow, seems like much ado about nothing (B2B being a bad thing). Thanks.

    I like Dom. He’s really smart and great at crunching numbers.

    I do wonder if he’s made an erroneous conclusion.

    Did it occur to Dom that the reason B2B starts may have less of a deleterious effect on save percentages now BECAUSE goalies are doing it less often or teams are better at managing their workload?

    Goalies are starting B2B roughly 1/3 as frequently as they did before Tulsky.

  196. Material Elvis says:

    who: ?????????
    Larrson? I thought we were talking about Kassian.

    I was talking about Kassian and Larsson in two separate conversations. Didn’t mean to confuse you.

  197. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Granny with the ENG and the Condors sweep and elite team in their own arena on back to back nights.

    This team is getting going as the rookie pros start to find their way.

    Here is the Currie PP Goal:

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1221288390219272192

    Yeah an impressive effort this weekend by the looks of it. Skinner really is playing well and has grabbed the starters job. Cool stuff. Thanks for the updates.

  198. jp says:

    Ryan: I like Dom. He’s really smart and great at crunching numbers.

    I do wonder if he’s made an erroneous conclusion.

    Did it occur to Dom that the reason B2B starts may have less of a deleterious effect on save percentages now BECAUSE goalies are doing it less often or teams are better at managing theirworkload?

    Goalies are starting B2B roughly 1/3 as frequently as they did before Tulsky.

    It could be, but that would still mean starting on the 2nd of a B2B per se isn’t the issue. And overall workload would be the real concern, as leadfarmer said to prompt all this.

  199. boopronger says:

    Harper’s hair, dsf, whatever he calls himself is the king of the strawman. And people fall for it every time. king of trolling.

  200. v4ance says:

    The Kassian boosters who feel 4 years @ $3.5M+ AAV for Kassian (as reported in the media) isn’t an overpay seem to be relying on some faulty beliefs.

    The only way that contract is justified is if Kassian maintains or betters his performance of this year for the entire term of his contract.

    The only way his current level of performance is maintained is if Kassian is on McDavid’s or Draisaitl’s lines for the majority of the term of the contract.

    In my opinion, both of these factors have to be true for the contract to be remotely justified.

    Seeing that McDavid has performed as well or better with Khaira, Slepyshev, Rattie, Maroon, Caggulia,Archibald, and on and on… why should Kassian be paid a premium when literally he could be replaced by someone better in a matter of weeks.

    Some posters have taken the angle that McDavid likes what he brings to the team and that the overpay isn’t that bad. That’s the same sort of arguments that were made for Lucic and Russell when they were signed. Those extra cap dollars we locked up in bad contracts forced the club to bridge Nurse instead of locking him up for ~$5M AAV over a long term deal. Now we are looking at $6.5M AAV at best or $7M+ at worst.

    Nurse will get his money from the Oilers now and if we give too much to Kassian, what happens to Bear’s next deal? We’ll fall into the exact same trap that we could have avoided with Nurse. Are people not learning at all?

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