A Preview of Coming Attractions

by Lowetide

Math and ‘saw him good’ are both screaming like Janis Joplin onstage in Monterrey: Evan Bouchard is ready, almost ready, or damned near almost ready. So put the veggies in the mirco and set the table, because it’s close.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • New Jonathan Willis: PHWA Midseason Awards: Stars, snubs and what they mean for the year-end NHL Awards
  • Lowetide: Is there real trade deadline value in the Edmonton Oilers’ prospect pipeline?
  • Lowetide: ‘Connor McDavid: Whatever It Takes’ works as breaking news, drama and personality profile
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hey, Sparky, can you do that?’: How the Oilers’ AHL video coach got his start as the Islanders’ mascot.
  • Eric Duhatschek: He’s special’: The people who know him best tell the story of how Leon Draisaitl took the NHL by storm
  • Pierre Lebrun: Where all 31 teams stand one month before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
  • Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

OILERS 2019-20 BLUE

These are five on five numbers via NST. I’ve written two articles at The Athletic recently that pertain to our conversation today, here and here. The first informs us that Evan Bouchard is even strength goal differential 11-8 since Christmas, after going 21-31 leading up to the holidays. The second one discusses the idea of dealing one of Larsson or Russell.

NHLE

This could become pertinent if the Oilers recall Tyler Benson in the next few days. Players like Slepyshev, Gambardella and Currie have played several minor league seasons, so they’re not really comparable (imo) to someone like Benson or Puljujarvi. If you’re a forward, in entry deal and posting 30+ NHLE, that’s a nice neighbourhood.

On defense, there are two true offensive drivers in Joel Persson and Evan Bouchard. Persson, like Slepyshev, is an older player so his totals have to be viewed through a different lens than someone like Bouchard.

PROJECTED 50-MAN

I do think Ken Holland will make more than one big move this summer, my model above sees him sign two free agents and trade for a third-line center. I’m not certain on the money, maybe the team buys someone out, but the trade saves Edmonton a little more than $500,000. I used Hoffman instead of Hall because I don’t want you to use that as the conversation piece. I would prefer Hall, but they’re both excellent options. It’s like choosing stereo speakers at International Stereo in 1975: You’re walking out with something really good.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic talks All-Star weekend and Connor McDavid’s awards collection increasing this summer. Andrew Peard will pop in at 11 to talk Oil Kings and the growing draft buzz around Jake Neighbours. I also have an 11:25 guest who didn’t confirm but may show up anyway, I hope he does because his is a fascinating story. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Andy Dufresne

Steven Ellis of The Hockey News recently penned an article where he looked at all the players in the AHL All-Star game and picked 7 players he views as likey candidates for recall sometime soon.

7 candidates from amongst all AHL teams.

Of the 7….. 2 were Bakersfield Condors.

Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard.

Woodguy v2.0

WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Central
STL 18
COL 13
DAL 11

Pacific
VAN 10
EDM 8
CGY 7

Wildcard
ARI 6
VGP 5

Out of playoffs
NSH 3
WPG 3
CHI 3
MIN 2
SJS -3
ANA -6
LAK -9

-NSH losing to TOR creates a bigger wildcard gap

Relevant games tonight:

STL (-105) at CGY (-115) – by the numbers STL didn’t play bad last night, but Demko held the lead for VAN. Its this spot where I wonder if STL “has their game legs” while CGY might need a period or so to get theirs? I think I like STL a little bit because of this.

Andy Dufresne

I think you are correct to highlight and put a focus on the “WildCard Gap”.

This is our most likely path to the playoffs.

Woodguy v2.0

EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Metropolitan
WSH 23
PIT 17
NYI 14

Atlantic
BOS 19
TBY 14
FLA 12

Wildcard
CAR 11
CBJ 11

Out of playoffs
PHI 10
TOR 9
NYR 2
BUF 2
MTL 0
OTT -6
NJD -6
DET -23

-TOR beats NSH to not slide further. Muzzin played 22:37 to lead all TOR players. Big difference when he’s there.

-Relevant games tonight: None

Wonder Llama

Hey Lowetide faithful. Hope everyone’s good today and I hope this is an okay day to drop this wall of text on you. Evan Bouchard is certainly worth discussing. This will be the last time I do this; any expansion of the dictionary will now come from other posters.

I read almost every day but I don’t post a lot as I feel completely outclassed in fancystats knowledge and usually by the time I think of something useful to say someone else has already said it.

I am llargely a llurking llama, llaying llow, lliving my llife and llearning from llegends llike Lladies Llove Smid.

I suspect there are many regular readers/infrequent posters like me, so if my goofy dictionary can provide a few laughs I feel like I’ve given a little bit back to the group. I am like Salieri at the end of Amadeus, absolving Analytics Mediocrities everywhere.

So here is the LOWETIDE DICTIONARY, 3rd edition, incorporating more suggested terms and an open-ended community format for expansion and eventual publication in a respected peer-reviewed journal. There are 20 new entries for a total of 58 (including the four contributed by BONE207).

PART A: WONDER LLAMA LLOWETIDE LLEXICON

ALSO IN PHOTO: A sports journalism-inspired Lowetidian euphemism for “late to the play.” Example: “Number 12 Yvan Cournoyer hugs an elated Paul Henderson in front of a prone Vladislav Tretiak. Also in photo: future salt miner Yuri Lyapkin.”

AUSTINS: Towards the end of the DOD (Decade Of Darkness) Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jordan Eberle received contracts with identical $6,000,000 AAVs. They were the Six Million Dollar Men; the Steve Austins. These contracts were better, stronger, and faster than other contracts. They proved that young stars would make long-term commitments to the northernmost city in the NHL. Lowetidians scoffed at the cake-eaters and pool loungers of Winnipeg and Buffalo. Good times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGO57y4td-c

BALANCE PHOTO: A mythical image promised for years to the Lowetide faithful when the Oilers roster is finally packed with pecks of pickled Pisscutters and Pisanis. Its appearance will herald a new Oilers Dynasty and the simultaneous psychic orgasm of Lowetidians around the world.

BARKING CORGIS: A rare example of LRS (Lowetidian Rhyming Slang). In this case corgi = corsi. Corsi is a measure of official shots, missed shots, and blocked shots originally named by early Oilers blogger Tim Barnes (aka Vic Ferrari) arbitrarily yet appropriately after Buffalo Sabres goalie coach Jim Corsi. Whatever. When the small royal dogs are yapping the Oilers are pushing the frozen disc of vulcanized rubber in the correct direction.

CALM YOUR TITS: Hold your horses. Mellow your manatees. Placate your platypuses. Sedate your salamanders. Temper your tardigrades. It’s just a game.

CAMPING BOX: Arguably Lowetide’s greatest childhood story. Soon to be a major motion picture starring Hugh Bonneville, Emma Thompson, and Iain Armitage as Young LT.

CAN’T PISS A DROP: The inability to score points at the NHL level (see Steve MacIntyre, Jean-Francois Jacques, Zack Stortini, Ryan O’Marra, Luke Gazdic, and, of course, Rob Shremp).

CFP: Chris Fucking Pronger. It’s a long story.

CHASED BY BEES: When a player (typically a forward with above-average offensive skills) drives his linemates and coaches to drink cheap screech because he is unable or unwilling to skate within a recognizable system of positional play.

COKE MACHINE: Lowetidian euphemism for a large, lumbering forward with limited offensive potential but who can throw a punch. If he ever catches up to that “enigmatic Russian,” he might even throw a TBC (Thunderous Body Check). Oilers management acquired a bewildering number of these players during the DOD. Statistically speaking, actual Coke machines are probably more dangerous. https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/58235/11-mundane-objects-are-statistically-deadlier-sharks

CROOKED NUMBERS: Zeros are round. Ones are straight. Crooked is better. We wait.

DANCES WITH BEES: Nail Yakupov’s Sioux name. (Okay, I made that one up).

DEAD CAT BOUNCE: The deceptive temporary sign of life that a player or team displays just before his or its final collapse. Often occurring as the result of a desperate structural change like firing the head coach. The Oilers’ 9-2-2 record from Nov. 20 to Dec. 14, 2018 under new coach Ken Hitchcock was a dead cat bounce. Don’t bounce cats, dead or alive.

DECADE OF DARKNESS: 2006-2015; essentially the period between game 7 of the 2006 finals and the 2015 draft lottery win. Most Lowetidians developed their sophisticated understanding of scotch and rye whisky during this time.

DONNER PARTY: The final stage of most Oilers seasons. After the OP-timism of early days Lowetidians survive the Gales of November and hope for the best. But after too many Tabernac Saturdays we are visited by Nadir’s Raiders and finally resort to cannibalism wondering if the best players on the team are actually the problem. https://twitter.com/brendelbored/status/1069046253827305473?lang=en

EDMONTON OILERS: A team in the National Hockey League.

EYE TEST/SEEN HIM GOOD: On December 1, 2014 Coyotes rookie Tobias Rieder scored two shorthanded goals against the Oilers on the same penalty kill. Sign that kid up first chance you get! In 67 games with the Oilers Rieder scored zero goals. In the immortal words of Obi-Wan Kenobi: “Your eyes can deceive you. Don’t trust them.”

FANCYSTATS/FANCIES: Advanced analytics for hockey in the tradition of the pioneering work of Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane and including the insights of several Lowetide contributors like WoodGuy and G Money. Includes things like barking corgis and PDO mirages. Does not include plus/minus unless it supports your current narrative.

FIFTY: The number of points Ryan Nugent-Hopkins might someday score if all the planets align and he finally shaves his sideburns.

GALES OF NOVEMBER: A reference to the 1976 Gordon Lightfoot song “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald,” this frightening phrase acknowledges the Oilers’ recent history of futility in the 11th month when playoff hopes come on deck and say “fellas it’s been good to know ya.”

GET GOOD PLAYERS, KEEP GOOD PLAYERS: A Lowetidian paraphrase of a quotation from legendary NY Islanders coach Al Arbour. https://oilersnation.com/2013/08/24/get-good-players/ Oilers management reportedly misheard this advice and attempted to sign both Kerry King and Buffy.

GOALIES ARE VOODOO: Goalies like to be hit really hard with frozen discs of vulcanized rubber. Goalies talk to their posts and throw up before games. Goalies are butterflies and snow angels. You don’t want to draft them too high or give them too long a contract, but almost everything depends on them. Goalies are voodoo.

GORD: Yahweh/God/Allah.

GRIFFIN REINHART: Matthew Barzal and Sebastian Aho.

JULTZING: Inspired by former Oiler defenceman Justin Schultz, it is the practice of defending by skating away from an attacking forward with one’s stick vaguely pointing towards him, just out of reach. Schultz was fine really but he was more MAB than CFP so his lack of TBCs got him traded to Pittsburgh where he promptly won a Stanley Cup. We’re all really happy for him. I guess.

KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY: Wikipedia can tell you all about muskets, Oliver Cromwell and early 19th century poems, but for Lowetidians it means don’t make unnecessary trades or free agent signings based on emotion or desperation. Example: In what appeared to be an emotional reaction to his poor point production in the 2017 playoffs Jordan Eberle was traded for Ryan Strome. In what appeared to be a desperate reaction to Strome’s initial poor point production in 2018, he was traded for Ryan Spooner. Jordan Eberle plays well enough for the NY Islanders. Ryan Strome plays beautifully for the NY Rangers. Ryan Spooner plays in Switzerland. All this is fine since the Oilers have no need for a scoring winger or third line centre. [EDIT: It all worked out in the end as Samwise Gagner meets both those needs.]

KOMRADE HORCOV: Where do you think you are, Copper and Blue?

MATERIAL: The difference OP makes.

MENDOZA LINE: 1. A reference to MLB shortstop Mario Mendoza and to .200 as a minimum competent batting average. So the Mendoza Line in hockey might be 10 goals per season for a forward or a .900 SV% for a goaltender, YMMV.
2. What you don’t want to push McBain over. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOk4hQXbGDs

MICHELLE JENNEKE: A world-class Australian track and field athlete who deserves nothing but our utmost respect and admiration. Also, she’s crazy fucking hot Good Gord. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdexkdpkIgk

MILES TO GO/EARLY DAYS: A reference to the Robert Frost poem Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening and the lines “The woods are lovely, dark and deep; But I have promises to keep; And miles to go before I sleep…” Simply an acknowledgement that things can change. Example: It’s November 24, 2019 and the Edmonton Oilers are 16-7-2 but these are early days and there are miles to go before they collapse.

MUSIC!: One-word Lowetidian exclamation of joy when things actually go right. Example: In the fourth and fifth rounds of the 2015 draft the Oilers chose defencemen Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear. Both have been developed and ripened within the organization and are becoming real NHL defencemen just when we need them. Music!

NADIR’S RAIDERS: Ralph Nader first became famous in the 1960s as a consumer advocate, most notably vis-à-vis the auto industry and such substandard models as the Chevrolet Corvair and the Ford Pinto. The group of law students who helped him investigate the FTC were known as “Nader’s Raiders.” Nadir is rock bottom, like finishing last in the NHL and picking first in the draft. Then doing it again. I’m sure there’s a joke about Lennart Petrell being unsafe at any speed here somewhere but I can’t quite reach it so here’s a song about a car: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wYveoz8ga0

OBC (Old Boy’s Club): The ability to play hockey does not necessarily imply the ability to manage a complex multi-million-dollar hockey franchise shocking I know.

OUR GRACIOUS HOST: Lowetide himself. He’s all three words. He created an oasis of decency in the ugly sludge of internet commentary. He’s modern and he’s folksy. He’s overworked and underpaid. He’s a beautiful soul and he’s more patient with us than we deserve. He’s bouncy trouncy flouncy pouncy fun fun fun fun fun!

OVERRIPEN: The practice of granting more than sufficient development time for players to mature, hone their skills, and build their confidence in the AHL or equivalent. The gold standard for this strategy was Montreal in the 1970s. Then there’s Jesse Puljujarvi.

PISSCUTTER: A hockey player so good he produces a stream of urine that shines like a shaft of gold when all around is dark and cuts through sheet metal like a Bond villain’s laser.

PUSHING THE RIVER: Perhaps the quintessential Lowetide term, it refers to a player’s ability to singlehandedly tilt the ice in his team’s favour. Taylor Hall was a river pusher; Jordan Eberle, as much as we loved him, was not. Bruce Springsteen, Joni Mitchell, and Neil Young are also river pushers. Andy Williams, as much as we love Breakfast at Tiffany’s, was not.

REAL AND SPECTACULAR: 1. Ample not gauche, firm not hard, sensitive not ticklish, with perfectly proportioned areolae and nipples. [see Seinfeld episode “The Implant,” Feb. 25, 1993].
2. Oscar Klefbom’s abs.

REGRESSION TO THE MEAT: Based on some analytics crap (watch the game, nerds) called regression to the mean. It is the tendency for outliers to stop lying out there. Example: Milan Lucic’s hands might score two goals this week but his head will soon regress to the meat.

RICKIBOX [TM]: Associated with the enigmatic figure Ricki the Bear, it remains ill-defined. Some believe it is simply the area in front of the goal while others insist it is a place to put a number so that it does not become lost.

ROB SCHREMP: 1. Edmonton Oilers first-round draft pick (25th overall) in 2004. Scored 57 goals in 57 games for the London Knights. Scored zero goals in seven games over three seasons for the Edmonton Oilers. https://cursingintime.wordpress.com/2015/02/14/sugar-tits/
2. He does not shine shoes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJzNUydlQ4I
3. He does not make chocolate. http://indifferenttobelgium.blogspot.com

SAIL ON: The traditional Lowetide farewell salutation when an Oiler leaves the team, often employing a geographically specific alliteration. If, for example, Joakim Nygard were to leave, the headline might be “Sail On, Stockholm Syndrome.”

SIDEBURNS: What Don Mattingly and Martin Marincin never shaved. [see Simpsons episode “Homer at the Bat,” Feb. 20, 1992].

SMID: Ladies love him; LT hates him. No one knows why either is true.

SOFT PARADE: 1. Weak QoC (Quality of Competition) that affects a player’s or line’s production or possession numbers. Example: If the unicorns emerge and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins plays 3C with competent wingers, he might score 50 points against the soft parade.
2. Not coincidentally, the weakest of The Doors’ six studio albums. Hard to defend these lyrics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZaQyYgAGfQ

STAN WEIR: Stan Weir bought straight-blade sticks and curved them with his iron will. You don’t know who Stan Weir is? You better pray he doesn’t find out who you are.

TABERNAC SATURDAY: An acknowledgement of the Oilers’ tendency to lose on Saturday night’s Hockey Night In Canada broadcasts. Not even the sensory assault of Don Cherry’s suits could overcome the need to shout this most sacrilegious of Quebecois profanities.

UNICORNS: The elusive dream of three scoring lines with three river-pushing centres like Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin, and Staal 2006-12. The Oilers actually have this potential with McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins and are only six wingers away from making the dream real. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4bc9UwZsYs

VEGREVILLE: Las Vegas (but with perogy payouts at the Kaiser tables).

WE HOPED FOR THE BEST: But it turned out like always.

WE WAIT: What Lowetidians do indefinitely after a logical and perfectly obvious course of action is publicly suggested.

WOODMONEY: 1. Something something Woodguy and GMoney… something something brilliant and innovative… something something Puck IQ is amazing: https://lowetide.ca/2017/07/02/its-the-real-thing-woodmoney/
2. One trick to faking analytics knowledge is to tell stories that don’t go anywhere. Like the time I caught the Red Arrow to Red Deer. I needed a new box for my camping trip. So I decided to go to Moose Jaw, which is what they called Red Deer in those days. So I tied a perogy to my belt, which was the style at the time. Now to take the bus cost a WoodMoney, and in those days WoodMonies had pictures of Stan Weir on ‘em. “Gimme five Stannies for a Pisani,” you’d say.

YMMV: Your Mileage May Vary, an acknowledgement of differing assessments within a mutually-understood set of parameters. Taken from a common refrain in late 20th century car commercials. I think Ethan Bear is a serious Calder candidate and BoJack Horseman is the best show on TV but YMMV.

PART B: BONE-US SECTION! – Entries added by BONE207

LAST CHANCE TEXACO: A mythical gas station where you either catch the plane to stardom or catch the bus/hitch hike your ass out of the land of milk and honey that is the NHL.

HOUSE AT THE SIDE OF THE ROAD: Slow moving defensemen, forwards that have slow boots and generally anything slower than the speed of light as compared to CONNOR.

CLOSE ENOUGH FOR JAZZ: The premise that jazz music, often played by four musicians doing different songs, is a good equivalent of among different players doing different things in hockey to be successful.

WOODGUY: He is the echoing voice heard down the streets of the book, 1984. He tells you what you are doing wrong, how you should see things and has a house with a moat that features a complex to manufacture torches and pointy things.

PART C: COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY SECTION

Here are some of the terms suggested by the community that I don’t feel confident defining. Some I have missed/forgotten completely like The Vaunt or Violently Disagree. Some I just don’t remember well enough like the details of the Pike’s Peak story or why we blame Woodguy’s phone for everything.

ACID EATER (GREBESHKOV?)
ALAS (ANTON LANDER APPRECIATION SOCIETY)
BARBARA ANN SCOTT
BECAUSEOILERS
DRAFT BIBLE (THE HOCKEY NEWS)
DYS
FIVE YEARS OF EXPERIENCE OR ONE YEAR OF EXPERIENCE FIVE TIMES
FUCK YOU BOOKJE
PIKE’S PEAK STORY
PUBIS THING
PARDUBICE PRINCE
RED WINE SUMMIT
THERE ARE FOUR LIGHTS
THE VAUNT
TOONCES TAMBELLENI
VIOLENTLY DISAGREE
WOODGUY’S PHONE

Andy Dufresne

“Math and ‘saw him good’ are both screaming like Janis Joplin onstage in Monterrey:” < NICE

My parents* called it screaming…. so youre saying they were right?
.
.
* Technically speaking, my Mother called it screaming, my Father called it noise.

Andy Dufresne

Haha….Dads…….God Bless Them…..

godot10

On high rotation in Lowetide’s family home in Maidstone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68cbjlLFl4U

Andy Dufresne

“Math and ‘saw him good’ are both screaming like Janis Joplin onstage in Monterrey: Evan Bouchard is ready, almost ready, or damned near almost ready. So put the veggies in the mirco and set the table, because it’s close.”

So you’re saying that Ken Holland will be busy at the Trade Deadline….adding three new players to the roster…….Player X from Team XYZ……Tyler Benson….and Evan Bouchard…..?

OriginalPouzar

Evan Bouchard is coming – this player is real and this player is spectacular!

Evan Bouchard has been developing at a rapid pace and has taken off in all areas of the game over the last 4-6 weeks, however, I’m confidant Holland wants to:

1) continue that development
2) not bring a 20 year old rookie d-man in to the NHL lineup in the midst of a pressure filled playoff race when the team has a solid 8-9 legit NHL d-men and are healthy (at least for now)
3) not burn a year of his ELC at this stage

I’m more excited about Bouchard now that I was on draft day, watching him earn the OHL d-man of the year, go PPG for the Condors in the playoffs last year and at the beginning of this season.

He struggled a bit at the beginning of the year in the area that we knew required development – as per Woody, intensity in battle and urgency of puck moving, resting on the ice, proximity to checks and gap control, defensive positioning and battle in front of the net.

With that said, given how “coachable” the player is, his development in these areas are stunning, in particular his improvement in urgency and gap control – at least to my eye.

On the skill side, he is a zone exit and zone entry savant. He has a Nurse like ability to skate the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone (maybe not as fast but he does have solid straight away speed) and he, of course, has the plus plus transition pass – that combo is marvelous to watch.

At the same time, those three things I mentioned above are real and I think, unless there are 2-3 injuries to NHL d-men, Bouch will complete the year as a Condor and the future is going to be bright for it.

Andy Dufresne

“Evan Bouchard is coming – this player is real and this player is spectacular!”

God please let this be true.

This ^ … and a Goalie may be all that stand between us and a Stanley Cup.

MushedPeas

Amen ^

I think the ELC burns no matter what?
Pretty sure you mean RFA years.

ArmchairGM

No, it’s subject to slide as long as he plays fewer than 10 games this season (regular season + playoffs).

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/evan-bouchard

unca miltie

I saw him live twice this year, once in November in Bakersfield and 8 days ago in Ontario. He is a different player. The intensity is there, one once in the whole game did I see him relax a bit and that was on the power play. he was solid defensively as well. Ontario plays big just like the Kings and Bouchard faired well. He is definitely close.

Darryl8843

Lowetide I walked out with a pair of JBL’s. Damn they were good. Went nicely with my Pioneer amp and Dual turntable. Never quite made the 8-Track sound good but we didn’t care. Those truly were great days.

Andy Dufresne

I remember vividly to this day when my buddy Eddie Telford popped an 8 Track into the 8 Track player in his AMC Gremlin car……and the Base Line blasted out the opening notes to China Grove…..it was orgasmic…..

Had a very similar experience a few years earlier with the Led Zeplin track “Whole Lotta Love”

8 Track quality was poor, but I didnt know it at the time 🙂

#IgnoranceIsBliss

#BeautyIsInTheEarOfTheBeholder

BONE207

JBL for me as well…in the eighties. Connected to my reel to reel Sony system. Still have the speakers.

Andy Dufresne

How about Trunk of the Car Guy…..His service was sketchy…but his prices were incredible. 🙂

Darryl8843

Every piece of electronics I ever bought was from International Stereo. Best store ever. The Dual Turntable you could literally turn it on it’s side without skipping the record. Great for parties. I still use mine today.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Re: Bouchard. In order for him to play regular minutes in the NHL this year, you’d have to trade a Russell or Larson or Benning.

– While Bouchard’s ceiling is hopefully higher than any of the aforementioned, I’m be shocked ifthis team, that is fairly poor on the GA, would trade away one of those more veteran D where the org knows what they have in them, just as games are amping up intensity, to make room for a rookie one, while trying to get into the playoffs. That’s what a bad team does IMO

– Bouchard may be “ready”, but it would be bad for the team to be playing him in the NHL today. 3 essentially rookie D on a team is rarely a recipe for success.

– Anyway, it’s a good problem to have. Plus Persson has played this year. We have a few waves of “draft and develops” that are coming. Finally.

flyfish1168

I can see both Larsson and Russell heading out of town by the end of summer.

Coiler

Having Bouchard get recalled is at this point in the season is like getting a solid puck moving D-man via trade. Except this isn’t costing any assets. It’s a win-win for everyone.

I sincerely hope Russell is the odd man out and Holland finds him a new home than Larsson.

Darth Tu

Agreed. If we’re moving one I’d rather it was Larsson. I stand by my view that the only time to deal Larsson is once we know for sure that Bouchard is ready for top 4 minutes in the NHL. We’ve been down this rushing prospects route way too many times before.

Certainly, I’m not for dealing Larsson before the summer.

tileguy

Adding snippets of home life in a hockey blog never ceases to make me smile, pause and reflect. You are the true Norman Rockwell of Canada Mr. Tide.

Andy Dufresne

LT’s writing style is, for me, a combination of two GREAT writers ( its no insult to LT to say that he is the 8-Track to these guys High Fidelity Vinyl Records)

One is LT namesake, the Great W.O. Mitchell and the other is P.J. O’Rourke (David McAllister Barry is a close third).

Mitchell is famous for portraying life on the Canadian prairies.

If your a Boomer and LT makes you laugh…You’ve GOT TO read, P.J. O’Rourke “The Baby Boom: How It Got That Way…And It Wasn’t My Fault…And I’ll Never Do It Again.”

If you’re a Boomer, you’ll utter the following phrase at least 40 times while reading the book, “Yes! Yes! Thats Me!….I remember that”

Darth Tu

Darryl8843:
Lowetide I walked out with a pair of JBL’s. Damn they were good. Went nicely with my Pioneer amp and Dual turntable. Never quite made the 8-Track sound good but we didn’t care.Those truly were great days.

I’m currently rocking a blue eyes JVC receiver/amp and a pair of Celestion Ditton 44 speakers – sumptuous.

JBLs are still quality.

so polar

OriginalPouzar,

agree with the rest, but re 3.), i believe his elc burns regardless of where he plays this year — chlers only slide if they’re in the chl, and bouchard’s DOB likely makes him ineligible unless as an overager.

ArmchairGM
Andy Dufresne

” The second one discusses the idea of dealing one of Larsson or Russell.”

Why not Benning?…….or is moving Benning a foregone conclusion?

Darth Tu

Going by LT’s predicted 50 man he’s keeping Benning as the 3rd pair RD for next year.

flea

It’s good to have extra Defense for a playoff push. Don’t see the Oilers moving any defenders at the deadline for this reason. However I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bouchard play in the NHL at some point this year if there are injuries. I’m sure the Oilers want the contract to slide too, but if the player is ready, and there is a need, contract slide be damned.

notarealdoctor

Lowetide,

I had my Audio Techs and Dual until the late 80’s. Bought a Harmon Kardon instead of the Pioneer, though. “We shop the world for you!”

Andy Dufresne

I knew we all ate the same food and traveled to the same destinations for vacations…..but until now, I didnt realize that we all owned the same stereo equipment.

TheGreatBigMac

LT, love your projection that team looks like a contender. How I wish it were possible, tell me you think it’s possible while still being under the cap.

Andy Dufresne

You’ve got me thinking……I might change my handle to “240PounderWithCheese”

Kinger_Oil.redux

OriginalPouzar:
unless there are 2-3 injuries to NHL d-men, Bouch will complete the year as a Condor and the future is going to be bright for it.

– Yes. He’s not playing in the NHL this year barring injuries (or trades as I mentioned): ready or not

– Bouchard playing alongside 2 other rookie D decreases playoff chances

VanIsleOil

notarealdoctor:
Lowetide,

I had my Audio Techs and Dual until the late 80’s. Bought a Harmon Kardon instead of the Pioneer, though.“We shop the world for you!”

Late 70’s…. spent way too much money on my stereo system..wicked SAE amp and receiver, Dual turntable with Shure cartridge, Teac cassette deck,and monster Canadian Sound Dynamic 15S speakers……..was a big hit for parties…..now my ears hurt if the music is too loud….

tileguy

Does one clean their albums moving the brush with the grooves or perpendicular?

VanIsleOil

haha…that would be with the grooves and using the fabulous Discwasher in doing so.

https://tinyurl.com/tmffsyx

Andy Dufresne

Back then, when someone asked “Do you party?” …the answer was always a quick and sure “Hell Ya!”

Today when someone asks me “Do you party?”…it just scares me…..

BornInAGretzkyJersey

OriginalPouzar,

How are Evan’s transitions looking? His straight ahead speed was always underrated, his backwards speed at the top of his class but his biggest skating deficiency has always been transitions between the two.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I’d rather pay Adam Larsson $4M on the third pair for the remainder of his contract than Kris Russell. He’s an ideal mentor for the likes of Caleb or Willie.

That said, if he can play next year at or near his current level, we could run another full year of 1A/1B pairings like in 2017.

Having Benning as a 7D isn’t the worst spot to be in the world.

Darth Tu

Speaking of cap space, I present my ridiculously crappy idea for the day. Well it’s more of a crappy question:

– The portion of the Lucic contract that we carry. Is there a way it can be exorcised from our cap hit? As in, can we somehow deal an asset and package in the Lucic cap hit and dump it unceremoniously on someone else? I get that it’s only $750,000, but that’s still a league minimum player when all is said and done.

Obviously the main issues with this are most teams being hard up against the cap, and how much of a sweetener would need to be offered to make it worth someone’s while to take on the $750 k. Is it even worth bothering with, and do we just eat the cap?

The reason I ask is, that as some have pointed out numerous times, between the Lucic retention, the Pouliot buyout ($1.33 million), and the Sekera buyout ($2.5 million), the Oilers have approximately $4.58 million in dead space going into next season. That’s a goal scoring winger’s worth of salary.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Pretty sure TOR is still paying a $1.2M portion of Kessel’s salary even though he’s since been traded from PIT.

Darth Tu

Yeah, I get that we’re on the hook for it as it stands. Is there some hard and fast rule that once you’ve retained a portion you keep it forever? I was more meaning can it in theory be moved.

ArmchairGM

I don’t believe there is any way of removing retained salary and buyout cap hits. Once they’re there, they’re there to stay.

leadfarmer

Pettersson for Pens just signed a 4.025 contract extention if we are looking for Bear on long term its going to be over 4 per

Darth Tu

Woodguy called it.

JimmyV1965

Andy Dufresne:
“Math and ‘saw him good’ are both screaming like Janis Joplin onstage in Monterrey:” < NICE

My parents* called it screaming…. so youre saying they were right?
.
.
* Technically speaking, my Mother called it screaming, my Father called it noise.

Hats off to LT. That simile is gold, pure gold.

Ben

Nurse – Bear
Klefbom – Bouchard
Jones – Larsson
Benning/Lag

probably represents the best back-end depth since 44 was knocking up weatherladies.

Andy Dufresne

Mathew Tkachuk is a weatherlady???

tileguy

Pronger

Andy Dufresne

44 knocking him up…..get it… 🙂

Darth Tu

I am enjoying that LT planted Hoffman in the lineup for next year, said don’t talk about Hall, clearly in an effort to get us to talk about both of said wingers.

We then spend the morning chatting about stereos.

Andy Dufresne

JVC…JVR……..Tomatoe…Tomato….. 🙂

Harpers Hair

Craig Custance has a new piece up at the Althletic concerning a proposed trade of Adam Larsson to the Leafs for Jeremy Bracco and Andreas Johnsson.

https://theathletic.com/1560427/2020/01/28/who-says-no-nhl-executives-evaluate-your-trade-proposals/?source=shared-article

Andy Dufresne

Is it all based on conjecture on his part? or is he claiming talks have actually occured?

At first glance, I might do this deal.

knighttown

OriginalPouzar:
Evan Bouchard is coming – this player is real and this player is spectacular!

Evan Bouchard has been developing at a rapid pace and has taken off in all areas of the game over the last 4-6 weeks, however, I’m confidant Holland wants to:

1) continue that development
2) not bring a 20 year old rookie d-man in to the NHL lineup in the midst of a pressure filled playoff race when the team has a solid 8-9 legit NHL d-men and are healthy (at least for now)
3) not burn a year of his ELC at this stage

I’m more excited about Bouchard now that I was on draft day, watching him earn the OHL d-man of the year, go PPG for the Condors in the playoffs last year and at the beginning of this season.

He struggled a bit at the beginning of the year in the area that we knew required development – as per Woody, intensity in battle and urgency of puck moving, resting on the ice, proximity to checks and gap control, defensive positioning and battle in front of the net.

With that said, given how “coachable” the player is, his development in these areas are stunning, in particular his improvement in urgency and gap control – at least to my eye.

On the skill side, he is a zone exit and zone entry savant.He has a Nurse like ability to skate the puck out of the defensive zone and through the neutral zone (maybe not as fast but he does have solid straight away speed) and he, of course, has the plus plus transition pass – that combo is marvelous to watch.

At the same time, those three things I mentioned above are real and I think, unless there are 2-3 injuries to NHL d-men, Bouch will complete the year as a Condor and the future is going to be bright for it.

Goddammit OP, you’d better be right on this!

I’d sort of settled into the notion that we might have a prime-of-his-career Cody Franson on our hands but you’ve done amped up the hype again! Can he get to those loose pucks in the corners? Can he separate guys from the puck?

I know you put in the time and watch and re-watch most games. And I also don’t recall you getting so horny about other borderline prospects so screw it, I’m going to trust you!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Bouchard ≠ borderline prospect. Never has.

Andy Dufresne

Did you pay extra to get that “not equal to” sign feature? 🙂

JimmyV1965

leadfarmer:
Pettersson for Pens just signed a 4.025 contract extention if we are looking for Bear on long term its going to be over 4 per

Pettersson has played 160 NHL games already. I think we should sign Bear short term. There is a very good chance he regresses next year. It happens to a lot of sophomore dmen.

Andy Dufresne

Evan Bouchard has a Unicorn aspect to him.

He’s the only Defensemen I’ve ever heard of where they are trying to Coach the calm out of him.

Seriously…Ive never heard of that happening before. Coaches usually spend alot of time trying to coach elite prospects how to be more calm under pressure.

Ive flip flopped from “Its good he’s so calm” to “this worries me”…back to “Its good hes so calm”…

GordieHoweHatTrick

Its like he has a high endogenous level of CBD

Oil2Oilers

I hope his calm does not turn into Jultzing, for all our sales.

elgruntus

Bought my Emerson amp at Consumers Distributing, then the RCA turntable at Crazy Crazy’s. The sound through the RCA speakers wasn’t spectacular, but I did however, have plenty of beer money

Andy Dufresne

You Sir…..Have your priorities straight.

VanIsleOil

I bought my gear on 124st not far off Jasper Ave…I believe it was Disco Sound- Awesome place for all your HiFi needs.

so polar

Harpers Hair,

I would take that in an instant, what the hell?

Woodguy v2.0

so polar:
OriginalPouzar,

agree with the rest, but re 3.), i believe his elc burns regardless of where he plays this year — chlers only slide if they’re in the chl, and bouchard’s DOB likely makes him ineligible unless as an overager.

This isn’t right.

This has everything to do with how old the player is when they sign their contract and how many games in the NHL that they play in a year.

It has nothing to do at all with what league (ie. CHL) the player was drafted from.

Here’s a good explanation:

What is an Entry Level Slide?
If a player who is signed to an entry-level contract and is 18 or 19 years of age (as of September 15 of the signing year), does not play in a minimum of 10 NHL games (including both regular season and playoffs; AHL games do not count), their contract is considered to ‘slide’, or extend, by one year. For example, if a player signed an ELC for three seasons from 2015-16 to 2017-2018, and their contract slides, their contract is now effective from 2016-17 to 2018-19. An exception to this rule is that if the player is 19 on September 15 of the first year of their contract, and turns 20 between September 16 and December 31, their contract does not slide.

Players who sign at 18 years old are eligible to have their contracted extended for 2 seasons. This extension does not apply if the player turns 20 between September 16 and December 31 in his signing year. Signing bonuses do not slide, and are paid to the player regardless of a slide, this causes the annual average of the players contract to change, and therefore the cap hit decreases for this player.

Link: https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#elc

Bouchard’s contract is a candidate to slide this year if he plays less than 10 NHL games.

Andy Dufresne

Thank You for the clarification. I knew this was the case…but for some reason its still unsettling to me when I hear conflicting reports

MushedPeas

Now i’m thoroughly confused. Hasn’t this blog been hammering for years the point that ELC years are burned by seasons in the pros, whether minor or major (AHL or NHL)?

Huh.

who

Darth Tu:
Agreed. If we’re moving one I’d rather it was Larsson.I stand by my view that the only time to deal Larsson is once we know for sure that Bouchard is ready for top 4 minutes in the NHL. We’ve been down this rushing prospects route way too many times before.

Certainly, I’m not for dealing Larsson before the summer.

I’m not sure I’m even trading Larrson this summer. The only way I do it is if the Oilers are signing a 1 or 2 year stop gap RD to cover his absence. Problem with that is can you find a quality RD willing to sign for 2×4?
If Larsson is traded our right side for next year is sophomore Bear, rookie Bouchard, and soon to be concussed Benning. Or Russell. Or Jones.
You’re much better off letting Larrson play out his contract in Edmonton. Gives you another year to evaluate Bear and Bouchard and gives them another year before they have to carry the full load of top 4 minutes.
Trade Benning. Try and trade Russell, even if you have to add, or retain salary. That’s the best way to ice a playoff contender for next year.

dustrock

Yeah I agree with this approach.

Darth Tu

Yeah I agree. Summer is a bare minimum, and I’d still not lean towards that being a good move. Larsson might get you more than Russell or Benning, but I’m not sure losing him makes up for said return.

I’d keep Larsson for at least another season. He’s a top 4 D on our team and that has real value for helping Bouchard along. We can’t expect him to walk into the NHL and be lights out immediately.

Benning – I actually like – the injuries worry me though. How many more bonks to the noggin can one man take?

Russell, again he does have value, but I’d rather keep the right handed Larsson over Kris. Especially with the cap hit for Russell. If he was $750k to $1 million less AAV I might have a different view. It is what it is though.

Andy Dufresne

I get your point, and I tend to agree with it.

However, if Larsson brings you two forwards Johnsson and Bracco for example….you just came close to balancing your roster without givng up any picks or prospects. Thats got to be appealing to Ken Holland. No?

pts2pndr

He would also be a nice mentor for Broberg.

godot10

Woodguy v2.0:

-TOR beats NSH to not slide further.Muzzin played 22:37 to lead all TOR players.Big difference when he’s there.

Jake Muzzin, a soon-to-be 31-year old defensemen looking for his Seabrook contract.
Ditto Pieterangelo and St. Louis. Although St. Louis looks like they will let Pieterangelo walk.

Muzzin will be a “Danger Will Robnison” contract for the Leafs.

Will GM’s ever be able to resist paying 30-somethings?

Darth Tu

So that’s a hard no on Hall from you then?

Andy Dufresne

Ha…..funny….

And did you notice…..Godot rhymes with Hardno

Not saying we should be calling him Hard No…..buuuut….

He does tend to see the world in black and white.

#NotThatTheresAnythingWrongWithThat

dustrock

knighttown: Goddammit OP, you’d better be right on this!

I’d sort of settled into the notion that we might have a prime-of-his-career Cody Franson on our hands but you’ve done amped up the hype again!Can he get to those loose pucks in the corners?Can he separate guys from the puck?

I know you put in the time and watch and re-watch most games.And I also don’t recall you getting so horny about other borderline prospects so screw it, I’m going to trust you!

I thought Bouchard’s floor was Cody Franson. His ceiling is definitely higher.

Definitely a better passer and transition player than Franson I think.

Bouchard is going to tick off Oilers fans at times because his demeanour makes it seems like his “give a shit” meter isn’t working. I’ve seen it happen with too many Oilers d-men over the years.

Andy Dufresne

Valid Point. AND this was driven by the sentiment often expressed by the organization itself…not just the fans.

Hopefully things have changed.

GB&Q

I can’t condone veggies in the “mirco”, but i like the idea of Pavel Francouz as a backup in 20-21.

Andy Dufresne

Ha… 🙂

leadfarmer

godot10,

I doubt St. Louis is letting Pietrangelo walk

GordieHoweHatTrick

” It’s like choosing stereo speakers at International Stereo in 1975: You’re walking out with something really good.”
Damn YOU’RE good.

ashley

Ok music fans:

I’m looking for singing groups/bands or songs with GREAT vocal harmonies. Examples are:

Mumford and Sons
The Lumineers
Fun
Skydiggers

Any suggestions?

tileguy

If you like that gospel sound, try the blind boys of Alabama.

Durag

Needs Can-Con so I’m going to recommend The Strumbellas

Andy Dufresne

Eagles…..Seven Bridges Road…..(and all thier other songs)

Crosby, Stills and Nash….Suite Judy Blue Eyes…Southern Cross…Teach Your Children well (and all thier other songs)

Simon and Garfunkle….59th Street Bridge Song…. (and all thier other songs)

Alison Krauss…Down to the River to Pray…..

The Dixie Chicks…. Travelin Soldier…

The Nylons….. The Lion Sleeps Tonight

The Momas and the Papas…California Dreamin…. (and all their other songs)

The Dobbie Brothers…. Jesus is Just Alright

Beach Boys…..(all their songs)

Everly Brothers…..All I Have to Do is Dream

Commodores…..Sail On

Orleans…. Dance With Me

John Denver and Kass Elliot …. Leaving On A Jet Plane

Association…..Never My Love…..Cherish

America…. Ventura Highway..Sister Golden Hair..Lonely People

Three Dog Night…. Out In the Country

B.W. Stevenson……… My Maria

Andy Dufresne

If you only pick one of these to listen to…Make it the Crosby, Stills and Nash songs.

Harmonies are magical

Andy Dufresne

Or

Lou Reed…Sweet Jane from Rock n’ Roll Animal….LIVE

No harmonies and the guy cant sing worth a sh*t…but what a song! 🙂

Andy Dufresne

Listening to Lou Reed’s Sweet Jane makes me feel like Im hearing RocknRoll on Heroin…I see/feel WhiteLight/WhiteHeat and feel like I need to take Lady Day

#RocknRollAnimal

elgruntus

Matthew Sweet. Multitracked harmonies of himself, but ear candy non the less. He also released some nice work with Suzanna Hoffs

Then there is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJHyp3Bp3lE

Bag of Pucks

Yes (Leave It)
Van Halen (Happy Trails)
Fleetwood Mac (pretty much anything)
Extreme (More Than Words)
The Who (Behind Blue Eyes)
The Eagles (Hole in the World)
Steely Dan (Kid Charlemagne)

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The missus suggests:

The Strumbellas
The Head and the Heart
Great Lake Swimmers

pts2pndr

Platonics

ashley

Andy Dufresne,

Thanks everyone! Lots to listen to. Much appreciated.

A

dustrock

Andy Dufresne:
I get your point, and I tend to agree with it.

However, if Larsson brings you two forwards Johnsson and Bracco for example….you just came close to balancing your roster without givng up any picks or prospects. Thats got to be appealing to Ken Holland. No?

Yeah, I guess the option is to trade someone like Larsson and grab Johnsonn/Kapanen and Bracco, and then see if there’s a decent RHD veteran replacement for Larsson you can grab in free agency or from another team.

But Holland doesn’t really seem like that aggressive a GM.

Eh Team

who: Trade Benning. Try and trade Russell, even if you have to add, or retain salary.

Is Benning > Larsson? Quite possibly he is. Then the trade is Larsson for a forward in season this year. Bouchard should certainly get in 9 games and be ready for the playoffs. More if we need him to make the playoffs. We are still playing Russell, and Bouchard must be a better NHL player right now than Russell is.

And call Benson up, right now.

We seem to have such a fear of throwing rookies in, but Bear, Yamo and Jones seem to be doing pretty well. No reason that Benson and Bouchard would be any different. If they are ready, you need to play them. It’s not like the bottom half of our roster is keeping them out of the NHL

GordieHoweHatTrick

If KH can pull together a 50 man resembling that for next fall ..that is a damn fine line-up. Still a few soft spots (i.e., G)…
One would have to think if he pulls something like this off, the long awaited, much anticipated, balance photo is not far behind…

Andy Dufresne

much anticipated……..but no pressure…. 🙂

True Story:

The day after Leonardo Da Vinci finished the Mona Lisa…his Agent called…..What else ya got?…..he asked…. 🙂

BONE207

LT: So put the veggies in the mirco (micro) and set the table, because it’s close.

Potatoes are a vegetable. Forget the frozen stuff.
Say happy birthday to Terry Harper.

JimmyV1965

dustrock: Yeah, I guess the option is to trade someone like Larsson and grab Johnsonn/Kapanen and Bracco, and then see if there’s a decent RHD veteran replacement for Larsson you can grab in free agency or from another team.

But Holland doesn’t really seem like that aggressive a GM.

If we trade Larsson, we almost have to keep Russell. I think the coaches are likely more comfortable with this than we are. Coaches seem to love Russell. It’s risky but makes sense. Trade Larsson and get an actual player. Trade Russell and we have to add picks to do it. Not advocating this logic either way.

Harpers Hair

ashley:
Ok music fans:

I’m looking for singing groups/bands or songs with GREAT vocal harmonies.Examples are:

Mumford and Sons
The Lumineers
Fun
Skydiggers

Any suggestions?

Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young.

Allison Krause and Union Station.

Anyone signing with Linda Ronstadt.

And then, there’s this:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Qt2FWAbXinY