Breakfast in America

James Neal has 19 goals this season and is a big part of the Edmonton Oilers’ first half success. Seven of his goals are at even strength and 12 are on the power play, but they all count. One of the areas Ken Holland will want to increase the efficiency of his team is five on five production. It is not a strength for Neal, and that puts the roster in a tough situation.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Is there real trade deadline value in the Edmonton Oilers’ prospect pipeline?
  • New Lowetide: ‘Connor McDavid: Whatever It Takes’ works as breaking news, drama and personality profile
  • New Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hey, Sparky, can you do that?’: How the Oilers’ AHL video coach got his start as the Islanders’ mascot.
  • Eric Duhatschek: He’s special’: The people who know him best tell the story of how Leon Draisaitl took the NHL by storm
  • Pierre Lebrun: Where all 31 teams stand one month before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
  • Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

LINES TO START THE SECOND HALF

Oilers were on the ice yesterday (even the All-Stars) giving us an idea about the lines or pairings. Change may come in the next couple of days and there’s some evidence that the No. 1 line would be a good place to tweak. I like to run numbers from the last 10 games, gives us an idea about ‘what have you done for me lately’ and they aren’t pretty for two members of the top line. All numbers five on five, via NST.

LINE 1: James Neal [10, 1-1-2 0.86]-Connor McDavid [10, 4-3-7 2.62]-Zack Kassian [8, 0-2-2 1.01].

James Neal needs a hot streak, and goodness knows he’s capable. However, you can’t call them up on demand and it’s been a long time for Neal. Over the last two seasons, in 1414 minutes five on five, Neal has scored 10-11-21 (0.89) in Calgary and now Edmonton. He’s Boog Powell in 1976. Neal has some injuries and I do think he’s better than the numbers show over the last 10 games. He needs to hit a big fly or two. His on-ice goal differential (8-5) is better than both McDavid (8-8) and Kassian (4-6) during this period, I have no explanation for you. Kassian’s offense is low compared to the rest of his season but is not a tragedy if he can pot some goals in the next 10 games. McDavid is McDavid, shock and awe squared.

LINE 2: Nuge [10, 6-1-7 2.87]-Leon Draisaitl [10, 0-6-6 2.28]-Kailer Yamamoto [8, 2-3-5 2.58].

This line has eight goals between them five on five and we shouldn’t expect the same production in the next 10. Three things: Nuge has more torque on his shot, Leon is out of his funk and Yamamoto accomplished what he couldn’t two in the previous two seasons: Belong.

LINE 3: Joakim Nygard [10, 1-2-3 1.76]-Riley Sheahan [10, 2-3-5 2.90]-Josh Archibald [10, 2-2-4 2.35].

All three players are apparently in the plans for next year, and that represents three successful bets. Sheahan is not the player we saw early in the year, coming off an injury obscured his abilities. Archibald was outstanding with 97 when Kassian was out, wonder how long before we see it again.

LINE 4: Jujhar Khaira [6, 0-1-1 0.99]-Gaetan Haas [10, 1-0-1 0.69]-Alex Chiasson [9, 2-0-2 1.28] plus Sam Gagner [4, 1-0-1 1.31] and Patrick Russell [4, 0-0-0].

Just as the second line has drilled opponents over the last 10 games, the fourth line and extras have struggled. We should expect a little recovery over the next 10 from these five men. Not sure all of them will still be here.

ADDING TO MCDAVID’S LINE

One player who would be an interesting acquisition is Columbus Blue Jackets winger Josh Anderson. Aaron Portzline has an article up about the contract situation, Anderson hasn’t played since December 14 due to a shoulder injury.

Anderson is perhaps an ideal RW target for McDavid’s wing: He’s skilled, big, tough, shoots the puck and plays a responsible game. 27 goals a year ago. A terrific target if healthy.

The ideal candidate is Chris Kreider. He brings power and speed and scoring ability, and is durable. He would require Holland dealing from the top of the prospect pool and I don’t see it happening.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the show, TSN1260 beginning at 10. The sports world has a heavy heart today, the death of Kobe and Gianna Bryant is on everyone’s mind. Carlan Gay from NBA Canada will join us to help put this event in some kind of perspective, to try and make sense of it. Jason Strudwick joins at 11 and we’ll chat Oilers-Flames, the recall of an enforcer and the message it sends, and about the race to the playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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190 Responses to "Breakfast in America"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL 19
    COL 13
    DAL 10

    Pacific
    VAN 9
    EDM 8
    CGY 7

    Wildcard
    ARI 6
    VGK 5

    Out of playoffs
    NSH 4
    WPG 3
    CHI 3
    MIN 2
    SJS -4
    ANA -5
    LAK -9

    Here we go into the stretch before the trade deadline. Buckle up.

    Relevant games tonight:

    TOR (-105) at NSH (-115) – two teams having some problems gettings save (although NSH its mostly a 4v5 thing) Muzzin’s first game back from injury tonight. Not sure who I like.

    STL (-125) at VAN (+105) – I think STL has some value here. VAN is decent, but STL is really good.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Metropolitan
    WSH 22
    PIT 17
    NYI 14

    Atlantic
    BOS 19
    TBY 14
    FLA 12

    Wildcard
    CAR 11
    CBJ 11

    Out of the playoffs
    PHI 10
    TOR 8
    NYR 2
    BUF 2
    MTL 1
    OTT -6
    NJD -7
    DET -23

    Relevant Wild Card games tonight:

    TOR (-105) at NSH (-115) – two teams having some problems gettings save (although NSH its mostly a 4v5 thing) Muzzin’s first game back from injury tonight. Not sure who I like.

    TBY (-135) at DAL (+115) – not *quite* wild card relevant but TBY isn’t free and clear yet. I’m not sure here either. I think I like DAL a hair at that price.

  3. v4ance says:

    How about Alex Formenton out of the Ottawa organization? See if they’re looking to swap a winger for Jones or Lagesson?

  4. Andy Dufresne says:

    Ba-ba-ba-dow, ba-bow-dum-doo-de-dow-de-dow, de
    Ba-ba-ba-dow, ba-bow-dum-de-doo-de-dow
    Na na na, nana na na na na

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to Kreider from what I believe are verified accounts, he has all Canadian teams on his no trade list so, even if Holland wanted to go against his verbal and make that big splash (Kreider would cost a 1st or a top prospect, I’m guessing), it doesn’t seem likely at all.

  6. Andy Dufresne says:

    Jebuz….that McDavid documentary…

    once again Im reminded of the Monty Python crew…

    Doctor: “Conner, Im sorry to have to tell you, you have a torn PCL along with other multiple tears around the knee, and a cracked tibia”

    McDavid: “Its just a flesh wound”
    .
    .
    .
    .
    #StanWeirBowsDown

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to the lines, its interesting that Khaira is back in the lineup.

    I do think that, if this team is going to the playoffs and making a run of any length, they need Khaira going – he’s got more to give than P. Russell and can be a “playoff type player”.

    Of course, this year, P. Russell is the more “responsible player”, however, if Khaira can stop making the mental mistakes (turnovers at the wrong places, not managing the puck, bad line changes), he is a more impact player that a P. Russell.

    —————————————-

    I also wonder if maybe there is a Benson call-up after the AHL all-star game tonight? Maybe Khaira is just holding that spot for Benson? 4LW doesn’t seem appropriate for Benson – then again, Haas is fast and Chiasson has some skill and can score – its not a prototypical “4th line”.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      “I do think that, if this team is going to the playoffs and making a run of any length, they need Khaira going”

      On the Contrary,

      I do think that, if this team is going to the playoffs and making a run of any length, they need Khaira gone.

  8. Paulie says:

    LT, I respectively disagree with your math. According to my calculations, McDavid = shock and awe cubed.

  9. Andy Dufresne says:

    Im VERY encouraged that the only two confirmed “persons of interest” that Holland is/was in on (or at least interested in) are Connolly and Pageau. According to most of the analytics discussions on this site, Holland is in fact fishing in the right waters.

  10. maudite says:

    LD -> klefbom/nurse, jones, lag

    RD -> Larsson, bear, Benning, Bouchard

    Jones has experience on his offhand in a pinch he’s utility.

    I’m still stuck in how to extract a potential winger and have russel in package other way. Realigns us better going forward.

    Russel, JP plus
    Galchenyuk plus

    Money is close puts another wing/centre in mix one that potentially might have chemistry on top line and can score.

    I’m fine putting another LW in play. If kassian played special teams I’d be more determined he keeps his place but he actually might not.

    Russell’s limited NTC factors but I’d be fine parlaying defense for potential supplement on wing this way.

    Nothing against russel he’s done pretty well this year I just am certain deadline is likely optimal time to be shopping competent defense trade chips over any other time.

    Buy low sell medium potential.

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Now please get Granlund and find a way to move Neal. That would be great

  12. Andy Dufresne says:

    Yamamoto answers the age old question….”How can you be short and still be long?”

    • BONE207 says:

      That’s easy…
      My Date asks me that daily

      • jm363561 says:

        This answers the age old question .. what is the difference between Complete and Finished:

        When you marry the right woman, you are COMPLETE. When you marry the wrong woman, you are FINISHED And when the right woman catches you with the wrong woman, you are COMPLETELY FINISHED!”

  13. Andy Dufresne says:

    “LINE 4: Jujhar Khaira [6, 0-1-1 0.99]-Gaetan Haas [10, 1-0-1 0.69]-Alex Chiasson [9, 2-0-2 1.28] plus Sam Gagner [4, 1-0-1 1.31] and Patrick Russell [4, 0-0-0].

    Just as the second line has drilled opponents over the last 10 games, the fourth line and extras have struggled. We should expect a little recovery over the next 10 from these five men. Not sure all of them will still be here.”

    Not sure any of them will still be here…..Confident that at least 3 of the 5 will not still be here.

  14. godot10 says:

    To whom it may concern:

    Edmonton OIlers public practice and autograph session today at WEM.

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1221828903888551943

  15. Andy Dufresne says:

    I dont think any package of our spare parts is going to get us a roster upgrade at the deadline.

    Not JJ not JP not Khaira not even Lagesson.

    Its going to take picks and prospects.

    No one out there is looking to give us a 1 for 3

    Combine this with the idea that you cant have too many defensemen if you intend to make an extended playoff run.

    So not moving Larsson, Benning, Jones, or Russell.

    SO

    Which pick and prospect is anyone willing to move assuming we are getting a top six winger who will automatically be our 3rd or 4th best winger (doenst matter what his name is)

    Samarukov + a 2nd
    McLeod + a 2nd

    Samarukov + a 1st (with cap $ / Gagner going the other way)
    Mcleod + a 1st (with cap $ / Gagner going the other way)

    Pick your poison.

    #GM’ingIsHard

    • pts2pndr says:

      Prudent choice is none of the above. In my opinion you are risking too much future on a long shot. Next year you have more cap space and your AHL players will hold more value. Timing is everything. It would be nice to have the straps done up on the parachute before you jump out of the aircraft.

  16. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    RE: games this week.
    Calgary seems to be bulking up. Probably best to have JJ in the line-up and Kass on 1RW for those games.

    Probably good NOT to call up Benson until AFTER the Calgary games, just in case things get ugly – not the kind of games you want to introduce a skilled rookie to his first NHL games with…

    Now that Calgary seems to be prepping for war, it is perhaps better if EDM spend a chunk of practice time this week on turning the other cheek. Let Calgary take the stupid penalties. Of course, don’t back down if the bell rings and your name is Zack, Jujar or Darnell, full contact/hard hits/forecheck for all (but McD :)), but stay away from instigator penalties….Focus on the PP and W(s).

    • BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

      Benson is more gritty than people think. His ability to play on the edge is one of the attributes that earned him the C while playing for the Vancouver Giants.

      Also, Kassian and Nurse were both on the ice when sneaky Gio took out Connor’s knee last season. They aren’t quite the deterrent their reputations imply.

      • GordieHoweHatTrick says:

        Good to know about Benson. Just a little nervous for the guy, y’know.

        There is a lot of chatter about how Kass and others (JJ, Luc) did not at the time, or in the first games against Calgary, “step up” and beat on Gio for the hit/take down. Let’s revisit the assertion that one of these guys should have gone apeshit on Gio.

        First, the injury silenced the entire Saddledome. Every single human in that building was in shock and very anxious about the injury to McDavid.

        Second, it was not entirely clear to anybody now, or then, that the play was egregiously dirty. It could just as easily be viewed as a desperation move and honest error/regret on a decision that take place in a fraction of a second. People can argue and debate this issue ad naseum, I think it is a rather moot point.

        Third, Gio clearly regretted the take out and the injury on ice and after the game.

        Fourth, Connor McDavid recently chronicled the injury and helped develop and produce “Whatever it Takes”. In that documentary there is extensive interview and discussion with Kassian AND Giordano. Do you (or any others on this board) think Connor would have chosen to have these guys as part of HIS documentary of such a massive part of his life and career if he did not believe the take out was an honest mistake / hockey play? By having Gio express his regret and tell his side of the story Connor is helping HIM get past this and taking the target off his back.

        Finally, my impression is that Connor McDavid has established some verbal in the room about people stepping up to fight his battles. We have seen limited response before to Manning and Doughty. I believe he wants people fighting his battles to be minimized to the greatest extent possible. I believe this is another aspect of what makes him such an excellent human being. Any player on the Oilers team is going to respect his requests.

        • BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

          My point was simply that the presence of JJ and Kass for the next game isn’t quite the deterrent it’s being built up as.

          And re: Gio… at some point you build up a past. He is a sneaky dirty player, much like that Doughty elbow you mentioned. Like Drew, Gio being famous aids him in getting away with boderline or worse plays.

          My take on the next game / retribution is a hybrid of what OP and Godot are saying. Take a number & pick your spots but, above all — win the damn game. Victory is the best revenge.

          • GordieHoweHatTrick says:

            YES! Let’s win the game! (see my point above about turning the cheek). I am in agreement on this point.

            I don’t view JJ or Kass as “deterrents” to possible fisticuffs. There are big and bigger boyz on Flames who will not shy away from a fight, and it is clear T-Chuck isn’t deterred by either of them

            There is a lot of build up to these games. I am not expecting a 1980s brawl here (maybe a bout or two), but a hard hitting nasty set of games…looking forward to it!

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      +1 to Gordies comment

    • pts2pndr says:

      The smart play is to play Archibald with Connor and start Kassian on the third line. Tippet can adjust as he sees fit. Turtlechuk has to play third line or Kassian can reek havoc on the third line. If you play Archibald and Nygard with Connor and they play Turtlechuk against them they will expose Turtlechuks lack of speed. Edmonton with the last change can F with Calgary and have Turtlechuk chasing all night long. I would put Khaira on third line with Neal for a big bodied line. I would also put Haas on the ice every time Johnny cockey was on the ice the with sole mission to shadow him and assure that he was hit every time he touched the puck. We have the players to make life very difficult for Calgary. He laughs loudest who laughs last.

  17. maudite says:

    I also cant believe the amount of random viritol that’s been spouted about Holland at times by some…

    I was impressed with his offseason.

    With next to no flexibility he went out and added a pile of bottom six options. Not past due date generic options potentially longer fit out of box kind. Ones that could all skate. He did this with essentially all of them having neutral cap hits If shuffled to minors on short contracts!!
    I thought that was genius. Most of the limitations oilers are facing were preexisting conditions to his employ. The amount he did manage to accomplish this with limited flexibility should be seen as nothing but encouraging.

  18. Stephen says:

    Disclaimer: long form Canucks content ahead

    I spent the weekend playing in the Canucks Autism Network’s Pro-Am. 19 teams fundraised for a couple of months and the draft order was determined based on highest donations. The weekend was a blast; charity luncheon on Friday followed by the draft Friday night and then games all weekend.

    Overall, approx. $700k was raised for kids in the lower mainland with Autism, and even though I can’t cheer for the team, the Canucks organization did a hell of a job putting it together. A lot of respect to them.

    I’m not sure if the Oilers do something similar, but if they do I would encourage everyone to sign up next year. You get an ex-NHLer in the room with your team sharing stories and answering questions. The guys on the ice seemed to get a kick out of making plays with them. Not to mention, playing hockey for charity is the best way to play.

    As a goalie, it was a bit frustrating because none of the NHLers wanted to shoot the puck, so Bruce, that won’t be the highlight for guys like us. Although, I sat next to Taylor Pyatt at the luncheon and he ended up getting drafted by a team we played. I ran into him just before our game and told him Mason Raymond refused to shoot the puck in the first game and that he shouldn’t hold back in our upcoming game. He should shoot to score. He was quiet most of the game until the 3rd period when they were trailing by one, then he completely embarrassed me for a really nice goal. Highlight of the tournament.

    For the most part, the pro’s played at about 20% speed, like parents playing with their toddlers, but when they turned it on for a brief 4-5 seconds, they could impose their will like there was nobody else on the ice. Pretty spectacular to see from my vantage point.

    As for Oilers content, Brad May was on one of the discussion panels at the luncheon. When asked what’s different about the game today and what he likes/dislikes from his days, he unloaded on Tkachuk. Said he texted Parros the next day to tell him he blew the call. Should be a good game on Wednesday. By the sounds of it, the whole hockey world will be watching to see not only what happens on the ice, but more importantly, how the NHL responds.

  19. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    I dont think any package of our spare parts is going to get us a roster upgrade at the deadline.

    Not JJ not JP not Khaira not even Lagesson.

    Its going to take picks and prospects.

    No one out there is looking to give us a 1 for 3

    Combine this with the idea that you cant have too many defensemen if you intend to make an extended playoff run.

    So not moving Larsson, Benning, Jones, or Russell.

    SO

    Which pick and prospect is anyone willing to move assuming we are getting a top six winger who will automatically be our 3rd or 4th best winger (doenst matter what his name is)

    Samarukov + a 2nd
    McLeod + a 2nd

    Samarukov + a 1st (with cap $ / Gagner going the other way)
    Mcleod + a 1st (with cap $ / Gagner going the other way)

    Pick your poison.

    #GM’ingIsHard

    I would be willing to give up virtually any pick or prospect for the right forward who is signed for term – Broberg, first rounders – whatever it takes.

    On the other hand, I don’t think we need studs, just reasonable top sixish wingers who can be zoomed by McDavid. A Lehkonen type player might explode offensively if he is riding shotgun with McDavid.

    What would be the cost? JP or Jones and a second rounder? Is that too much? Too little?

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Lehkonen 24 yrs old

      6th yr Pro ( two in SHL)

      30 pt guy 15-15

      Good contract $2.4m thorugh 2021

      So he’s tracking like a late first rounder.

      I think you are in the ballpark with potential ask. Jones +

  20. teddyturnbuckle says:

    I’m ok with Holland doing very little at the deadline. If he does add I wouldn’t give up the 1st or 2nd. Seems these days rentals don’t get a team much in return. Holland has been bargain shopping all season, no reason to not do the same. If a good player is available for the 4th at the last minute then add.

    • LadiesloveSmid says:

      Not really interested in any rentals either, this team’s not very good. If you can get any term, sure. Palmieri has 1 year left after this.

  21. Reja says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Benson is more gritty than people think. His ability to play on the edge is one of the attributes that earned him the C while playing for the Vancouver Giants.

    Also, Kassian and Nurse were both on the ice when sneaky Gio took out Connor’s knee last season. They aren’t quite the deterrent their reputations imply.

    The kid deserves to be called up and yes he will be able to handle the physicality of the Big Bad Flames. If the organization doesn’t want to give this soon to be skilled 22 year-old kid a fair chance package him up where another team might see what the Oilers are missing.

    • GordieHoweHatTrick says:

      “soon to be skilled”? Isn’t he skilled already??

      I am all for the call up, just not sure its in the team’s best interest to insert him in over JJ against Calgary this wekk. You have a different opinion. That’s cool.

    • BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

      Being a local kid, Benson would be jacked to play in the BoA for his first NHL game. The storylines almost write themselves. He’s no shrinking violet and could surprise in that environment.

      • GordieHoweHatTrick says:

        Absolutely he would be jacked. I’m not going to be PO’d if he is called up tomorrow and gets put in the line-up on Wednesday, BUT my preference would be to ease him into his NHL games…just a little 😉 Like maybe against St. Louis or Yotes as a first game.

        To be clear, I have mentioned a few times, I want to see him up and playing at least 8 games before the trade deadline. It would be a mistake if this doesn’t happen (and I would be PO’d).

    • pts2pndr says:

      The organization did the right thing in bringing in players that would assure that unnecessary pressure was not put on Benson. Before calling up Benson they needed to see what they had with the people they brought on board. This was the right thing to do. Benson will get his chance and without the same pressure to produce that would have been present had the situation been different. This is all part of putting people in a position to succeed.

  22. Bank Shot says:

    At this point in his career what is Benson going to provide at the NHL level that Markus Granlund can’t?

    Curious to see where people think there might be separation between these two.

    • Jethro Tull says:

      For a fair comparison, you must compare Granlund when he was Benson’s age.

      Granlund has rarely been a PPG player at any level, at any stage of his career.

      Benson has the way higher ceiling than Granlund.

      In a betting world, the choice between a 21yo skill player with superior career numbers and a 26yo career bottom sixer should be obvious, particularly when the audition is for a skill line and the 26yo has already had a crack at the NHL this year and couldn’t stick.

    • pts2pndr says:

      We know what we have in Granlund. We need to find out what we have in Benson. At the NHL level Benson is 600,000 cheeper. Benson has elite hockey IQ the question is does he have the requisite skating skill/speed. Granlund is an ideal call up for later.

  23. Reja says:

    Bank Shot:
    At this point in his career what is Benson going to provide at the NHL level that Markus Granlund can’t?

    Curious to see where people think there might be separation between these two.

    Well isn’t that the idea of bringing up Benson and seeing what we have or am I missing something?

  24. Psyche says:

    It didn’t go unnoticed by me, and hopefully others, how the NHL and the media were helping the Tkachuk family PR campaign. It was disappointing.

  25. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    It’s probably not what most would like, but I’d be talking to Carolina about a trade built around Puljujarvi for Geekie. His numbers haven’t jumped a much as one would hope from a 2nd year AHLer, but his shot totals have spiked quite nicely and his scoring totals seem to be catching up.

    He’s a RC, young and fits right into the timeline for developing into a role on the 3rd line.

  26. Bank Shot says:

    Reja: Well isn’t that the idea of bringing up Benson and seeing what we have or am I missing something?

    Well I think the idea would be to bring him up if he can help the NHL team.

    Just curious why its so popular atm to be pushing for a Benson recall.

    Maybe has to do with Yamamoto’s success?

    • BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

      I think that’s part of it.

      Also, with the TDL fast approaching, it behooves Old Dutch to see what he has for in-house options before expending assets for new blood.

  27. LMHF#1 says:

    Deploying talent properly is one of the most important “skill” jobs for a coach. If you can’t find a way to use James Neal, or for a past example, Alex Selivanov in 1999-2000, then it’s at least to some degree on YOU.

    As for the deadline in the modern NHL – if you have a chance, you go for it. I hope everyone will have learned the lesson of 16-17 and also that periods of sustained success through patience aren’t a thing any longer…but most will probably have to learn that lesson again.

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    I fully understand the hesitance to bring in rentals, but in reality it might be the cheapest way to give the team a boost for the remainder of the season – and the cost won’t be egregious if Holland shops in the correct aisle. Also, he needs to be looking at players who are summer UFA targets, and then expend a late pick / C prospect test driving them for the next 3+ months. A few guys I would consider:

    Vesey, LW, BUF
    Girgensens, LW, BUF
    Larsson, LC, BUF
    Fast, RW, NYR
    Namestnikov, LW, OTT
    Ennis, LW, OTT

    • Darth Tu says:

      Jimmy’s brother Nolan is still in our system isn’t he? I get that he’s not really done all that much, could be a bit of a sweetener in tempting Jimmy to the Oil.

      He’s UFA at the end of the season too, so shouldn’t cost the earth in a rental move – seems to be a 30-40 point scorer which shouldn’t be sniffed at, but also not lighting the heather on fire.

    • pts2pndr says:

      Ok, just for grins who would you be willing to part with for a rental?

  29. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Is Florida a trading partner we can work with? They are heavy upfront but seem to be in the market for D and Goaltending. Their opinion of Larsson might be higher than members of the league that have seen him more recently, I’d be shopping him for a forward in a “hockey deal” type of trade. I wonder if they’d be willing to part with Hoffman (UFA) or Vatrano (2 more years but less name value) as part of a larger deal.

    No idea what the numbers say about either of those guys, or if there are other guys on that team that would make sense, rather I’m suggesting that the Panthers seem to be a team that has a surplus of what we need and are in search of what we have to offer.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    It’s probably not what most would like, but I’d be talking to Carolina about a trade built around Puljujarvi for Geekie. His numbers haven’t jumped a much as one would hope from a 2nd year AHLer, but his shot totals have spiked quite nicely and his scoring totals seem to be catching up.

    He’s a RC, young and fits right into the timeline for developing into a role on the 3rd line.

    My JP trade target: Casey Mittelstadt.

  31. maudite says:

    I havent noticed granlund missing from lineup since he got swapped out…we havent seen how benson even looks in lineup?
    Bank Shot,

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: Well I think the idea would be to bring him up if he can help the NHL team.

    Just curious why its so popular atm to be pushing for a Benson recall.

    Maybe has to do with Yamamoto’s success?

    I think it’s because he’s probably the most offensively talented LW in the entire org.

    His 20 year old season AHL season compares very favourably to more than few quality top 6 NHL forwards.

    I wrote about here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html?m=1

  33. maudite says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I’m not overly interested in trading a top 4 RD with a pretty cap friendly contract that extends another year….what am I missing here? Why do I keep seeing Larsson”s name pop up in underwhelming deals…hes exactly the kind of dman I want in a tough playoff series.

    • Darth Tu says:

      Agreed, I’m not keen on trading Larsson at all. We only do that if we know that Bouchard is ready for the NHL in a top pairing role. To my mind, he’s not. Bouchard should come up next season (or towards the end of this season if there’s an injury etc.), and even then I’d rather see him eased in as the 3rd pairing RD with some powerplay time.

      Until then – and even afterwards – Larsson is needed on the team. Heck, if Bouchard hits the NHL and somehow explodes I’d still rather have Larsson there as the 3rd pair D alongside Jones.

      Klefbom-Bouch
      Nurse-Bear
      Jones-Larsson

      That could be a decent/good NHL lineup in a year or so.

      • pts2pndr says:

        In two years Samorukov or Broberg will blow by Jones like he is parked. Tool kit on both are superior to Jones. It might be 3 years for Broberg. In my opinion Jones is the young left shot D that you can move.

  34. Reja says:

    Bank Shot: Well I think the idea would be to bring him up if he can help the NHL team.

    Just curious why its so popular atm to be pushing for a Benson recall.

    Maybe has to do with Yamamoto’s success?

    Without his health problems he was a top 15 pick those problems are behind him. He’s going to be 22 in March he can make our team better immediately or let’s find out anyhow. He deserves to be called up ( a real pay cheque) and more importantly you might start damaging the kids confidence by leaving him in the salt mines for another year. If your skilled and don’t get a sniff in the NHL by 22 you might find yourself on the same line as Jesse in Finland.

  35. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM: My JP trade target: Casey Mittelstadt.

    Good suggestion! I would be supportive of such a trade. Think JP brings enough interest to BUF for them to bite? They seem a little shy on RW prospects, while they are rather well stocked in C (see Cozens, Dylan for eg).

  36. Ribs says:

    I’m okay with Benson staying on the farm for a while. I’d like to see a goal spike from him in the lower league. Rounding off some of his edges will make his transition to the NHL a lot easier for everyone.

    He’ll be forced on to the roster eventually. I don’t see the need to rush it.

    • pts2pndr says:

      Benson is an elite passer because he sees the ice so well. He is not and probably never will be a shoot first scorer. That player is Maksimov. Each player has to play to his strengths to be successful. A cat is not going to bark no matter how long you try to teach him to bark.

  37. Cassandra says:

    Mittelstadt has 10 pts in 17 games while sporting a -5.

    The shine isn’t there. He has no real track record of putting up offense. Is he better than Tage Thompson?

    Plus his profile is as a PP guy, and the Oilers don’t need that.

    There are way better players to target.

    I also think it is funny that there are people on this board who think that the Oilers should trade Larsson for someone like Ehlers (as if the Jets would ever do that) and there are others who think that would be bad idea for the Oilers (which is shocking).

    The Oilers can’t trade Larsson because they aren’t going to get anything good for Larsson. So what is the point?

    There is nothing interesting on any of the trade boards. Stay out of it unless you can get rid of Russell or Neal somehow. Call up Benson and Benning, improve from within.

    Trade deadline deals are almost always bad value propositions. There is no reason to make these deals.

    • Darth Tu says:

      The Oilers shouldn’t trade Larsson because we’re not exactly flush with top 4 right hand D. That’s reason enough alone to not move him.

  38. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Cassandra:
    Mittelstadt has 10 pts in 17 games while sporting a -5.

    The shine isn’t there.He has no real track record of putting up offense.Is he better than Tage Thompson?

    Plus his profile is as a PP guy, and the Oilers don’t need that.

    There are way better players to target.

    I also think it is funny that there are people on this board who think that the Oilers should trade Larsson for someone like Ehlers (as if the Jets would ever do that) and there are others who think that would be bad idea for the Oilers (which is shocking).

    The Oilers can’t trade Larsson because they aren’t going to get anything good for Larsson.So what is the point?

    There is nothing interesting on any of the trade boards.Stay out of it unless you can get rid of Russell or Neal somehow.Call up Benson and Benning, improve from within.

    Trade deadline deals are almost always bad value propositions.There is no reason to make these deals.

    I don’t see JP being traded at the deadline, maybe draft or summer. He should be able to fetch an NHL player or a young prospect that has not “evolved perfectly” but could be on the bubble to play NHL 2020-21.
    Do you alternative suggestions of possible players and trading partners for JP?

  39. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think it’s because he’s probably the most offensively talented LW in the entire org.

    His 20 year old season AHL season compares very favourably to more than few quality top 6 NHL forwards.

    I wrote about here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html?m=1

    obvious comparable is Dube…WHL apprentice, same draft year he has 10 points in 26 games playing 3rd line minutes….but with Lucic…so most likely some more production in there somewhere …Point is its hard for a 21 year old AHLer to make an impact playing 3rd line

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Matty Benning officially recalled.

    Great to have ya back Matty.

    So, is it:

    Jones/Benning

    OR

    Russell/Benning

    I assume option 2 for the first game back!

  41. Wilde says:

    Bakersfield Condors vs. Tucson Roadrunners, January 24th, 2020; game totals

    45CF-53CA
    25FF-23FA
    2GF-1GA

    Top F: Malone (1.91 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 6 shot assists
    2 assists, 1 penalty taken
    13CF-13CA
    10FF-7FA
    2GF-0GA

    Top D: Samorukov (1.06 Game Score)
    2 shot attempts, 0 shot assists
    1 goal
    9CF-8CA
    8FF-3FA
    1GF-0GA

  42. Melman says:

    Cassandra:
    Mittelstadt has 10 pts in 17 games while sporting a -5.

    The shine isn’t there.He has no real track record of putting up offense.Is he better than Tage Thompson?

    Plus his profile is as a PP guy, and the Oilers don’t need that.

    There are way better players to target.

    I also think it is funny that there are people on this board who think that the Oilers should trade Larsson for someone like Ehlers (as if the Jets would ever do that) and there are others who think that would be bad idea for the Oilers (which is shocking).

    The Oilers can’t trade Larsson because they aren’t going to get anything good for Larsson.So what is the point?

    There is nothing interesting on any of the trade boards.Stay out of it unless you can get rid of Russell or Neal somehow.Call up Benson and Benning, improve from within.

    Trade deadline deals are almost always bad value propositions.There is no reason to make these deals.

    While not without his flaws, Larsson is a nasty, veteran, RHD – call me crazy but cashing him for a forward before the playoffs given the rest of the right hand depth would be folly. Now if you could pull Hertl out of SJ for magic beans and unicorns that would be special

    • Numenius says:

      Yes, it would be folly for any reasonable trade. If you can get Ehlers back, though, it would be brilliant.

      That would be an asymmetrical trade almost like the Hall trade.

  43. Wilde says:

    Bakersfield Condors vs. Tucson Roadrunners, January 25th, 2020; game totals

    29CF-28CA
    16FF-14FA
    2GF-1GA

    Top F: Currie (1.37 Game Score)
    3 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
    1 goal, 2 penalties drawn
    9CF-8CA
    4FF-3FA
    1GF-1GA

    Top D: Lowe (0.76 Game Score)
    2 shot attempts, 2 shot assists
    1 assist
    11CF-14CA
    6FF-8FA
    1GF-1GA

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Go Leafs!

    Go Lightning!

    Go Blues!

  45. Material Elvis says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: I don’t see JP being traded at the deadline, maybe draft or summer. He should be able to fetch an NHL player or a young prospect that has not “evolved perfectly” but could be on the bubble to play NHL 2020-21.
    Do you alternative suggestions of possible players and trading partners for JP?

    JP comes with a lot of baggage. The list of teams interested in paying decent value for his services would be limited. They likely end up dumping him for a draft pick.

  46. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Material Elvis: JP comes with a lot of baggage.The list of teams interested in paying decent value for his services would be limited.They likely end up dumping him for a draft pick.

    It would be interesting to know what KH’s request is NOW. I think it WAS more than a 2nd round draft pick, but yeah, it is quite possible JP’s value is lower than we would hope for…

  47. Material Elvis says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: It would be interesting to know what KH’s request is NOW. I think it WAS more than a 2nd round draft pick, but yeah, it is quite possible JP’s value is lower than we would hope for…

    The Oilers were put in a very difficult position by the player. I know that he wanted to go to Europe to regain his confidence (and that’s great for him) but it didn’t do anything to raise his value, which we all anticipated. The other GM’s will still have the same question marks: Does his offense translate to the NHL? Is he coachable? Can he communicate with the coaching staff and teammates? None of those questions can be answered by playing in Finland. His best bet and the Oilers best bet is for him to come back and play for the Oilers next season (even though his agent says that won’t be happening).

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd: obvious comparable is Dube…WHL apprentice, same draft year he has 10 points in 26 games playing 3rd line minutes….but with Lucic…so most likely some more production in there somewhere …Point is its hard for a 21 year old AHLer to make an impact playing 3rd line

    A couple things:

    1) 0.38 pts/60 is right on the median for Benson’s comparables so he’s on track too

    2) Dube actually leads CGY in 5v5 GF% with a 59.9%. If he helps his line dominate the score isn’t that making an impact? Isn’t that what we you’re looking for?

    3) His 2 more common line mates are Ryan and Lucic: (small sample size warning)

    Ryan GF% with Dube 57.9% without Dube 25%
    Lucic GF% with Dube 68.8% without Dube 57%

    He also elevates his linemates.

    That’s impact.

    Points can be very misleading.

    • LadiesloveSmid says:

      Lucic with some very nice GF%, not that he wasn’t a +GF% in Edmonton too

      • Woodguy v2.0 says:

        We hated watching him play but he didn’t hurt the team in terms of goals against.

        Probably why CGY traded for him (and the $ savings)

        I posted it here a few times near the end of last year.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:
    “I do think that, if this team is going to the playoffs and making a run of any length, they need Khaira going”

    On the Contrary,

    I do think that, if this team is going to the playoffs and making a run of any length, they need Khaira gone.

    Khaira, when he’s playing well, adds much more to the lineup than the likes of P. Russell – not to mention that Khaira can play the tough playoff type game as well.

    Of course, the “when he’s playing well” part is somewhat important.

  50. Reja says:

    Cassandra:
    Mittelstadt has 10 pts in 17 games while sporting a -5.

    The shine isn’t there.He has no real track record of putting up offense.Is he better than Tage Thompson?

    Plus his profile is as a PP guy, and the Oilers don’t need that.

    There are way better players to target.

    I also think it is funny that there are people on this board who think that the Oilers should trade Larsson for someone like Ehlers (as if the Jets would ever do that) and there are others who think that would be bad idea for the Oilers (which is shocking).

    The Oilers can’t trade Larsson because they aren’t going to get anything good for Larsson.So what is the point?

    There is nothing interesting on any of the trade boards.Stay out of it unless you can get rid of Russell or Neal somehow.Call up Benson and Benning, improve from within.

    Trade deadline deals are almost always bad value propositions.There is no reason to make these deals.

    Your selling Adam’s value around the league short. At 27 affordable right-hand top 4 D don’t grow on trees.

  51. tileguy says:

    Material Elvis: The Oilers were put in a very difficult position by the player.I know that he wanted to go to Europe to regain his confidence (and that’s great for him) but it didn’t do anything to raise his value, which we all anticipated.The other GM’s will still have the same question marks:Does his offense translate to the NHL?Is he coachable?Can he communicate with the coaching staff and teammates?None of those questions can be answered by playing in Finland.His best bet and the Oilers best best is for him to come back and play for the Oilers next season (even though his agent says that won’t be happening).

    Since JP can’t be sent down without clearing waivers, can he come back in the spring and just tank training camp? Would not the Oil have no choice but to try and send him down in which case somebody can claim him for free? The NHL after all is a business.

    • Fuge Udvar says:

      In theory yes but what team would want a player that does that when they are upset?

      • tileguy says:

        Wouldn’t cost the team a darn thing to find out.

        • Fuge Udvar says:

          Costs them a roster spot. You don’t get to claim a guy and put him on your minor team. He had to clear waivers again if you want to do that. Then we would get first dibs.

          Like that aussie player with the caps.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    maudite:

    Russel, JP plus
    Galchenyuk plus

    So the premise here is JP goes for a rental and the $4M of cap space for 2020/21 (a clean Russel disposition)?

    Interesting as I don’t imagine any asset back for Russell and not even sure we can get a clean disposition.

    Not sure if Holland is willing to use JP as that type of anchor lift though.

    • maudite says:

      Yeah I’m not sure exactly what structure might be.

      As it is, gal is huge waste on penguin’s roster.

      4.9 mil one more year

      Russel has 4 mil (only I think 2.5 real dollars next year)

      Less this season in hard cash as well…

      So 3 million real dollars saved and 900k against cap. For a functional defender that definitely has more value to them right now.

      I dont know if JP needs to be the plus really. Just pieces maybe that one might put in play. Pittsburgh likes young cap controlled wingers do they have any potential things that might be swung into deal as well is all I was thinking.

      Just reigns pieces in a way that might make sense for two teams looking to shuffle deck is all I’m possibly thinking.

      I hate white whales. Talk of oilers being really in on pageau are not words im excited to hear.

      Galchenyuk is epitamy of buy low right now. 17-30 goals, 40-50 odd points then dark tunnel this year. At 25 years old…worth a flyer on a team that has serious winger depth issues at present.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Now please get Granlund and find a way to move Neal.That would be great

    I have been quite intrigued with Granlund as a rental target – don’t see Neal going anywhere during this season (or this off-season).

    Would think that, if the Preds are selling, they’d need to take Gagner back in the trade to make the money work for the Oilers which would, of course, increase the actual asset cost to acquire.

  54. Bank Shot says:

    Dustylegnd: obvious comparable is Dube…WHL apprentice, same draft year he has 10 points in 26 games playing 3rd line minutes….but with Lucic…so most likely some more production in there somewhere …Point is its hard for a 21 year old AHLer to make an impact playing 3rd line

    Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

    Markus Granlund also had a great 20 year old season in the A I believe. benson in’t dusting him yet. I think it is probably unlikely that Benson will come up and make a solid contribution.

    While it would be nice to see him in NHL action for a game or two, I’d also be pretty happy to see the guy finish his year in Bake and come back extra hungry to camp in the fall.

  55. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0: A couple things:

    1) 0.38 pts/60 is right on the median for Benson’s comparables so he’s on track too

    2) Dube actually leads CGY in 5v5 GF% with a 59.9%.If he helps his line dominate the score isn’t that making an impact?Isn’t that what we you’re looking for?

    3) His 2 more common line mates are Ryan and Lucic: (small sample size warning)

    Ryan GF% with Dube 57.9% without Dube 25%
    Lucic GF% with Dube 68.8% without Dube 57%

    He also elevates his linemates.

    That’s impact.

    Points can be very misleading.

    For the record, I said it’s hard to make an impact as a 21 year old on the 3rd line, I would have been relying on my eye test to add anymore opinion and since I don’t know where to access the deeper dive stats you provided I just left it alone

    The other comment I would add, is that his line does not get scored on when he is on the ice. I am not sure what his advanced stats show but he is plus 5 on a team with a terrible goal differential he is hard to play against.

    Lucic has been much more useful since Dube was called up and he also seems to have exceptional chemistry with Ryan….Dube is an excellent player with a complete Jr and international Resume as well as a plus skater…I hope Benson can provide a similar impact to the Oilers 3rd line soon

  56. Material Elvis says:

    tileguy: Since JP can’t be sent down without clearing waivers, can he come back in the spring and just tank training camp? Would not the Oil have no choice but to try and send him down in which case somebody can claim him for free? The NHL after all is a business.

    First he would have to sign a contract, which would indicate (in my opinion) that he is going to try his hardest in training camp. Bombing training camp might lead to waivers (not likely) but it might also lead to a lot of press box time.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    An interesting trade suggestion from a Wild fan:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/301732

    • Material Elvis says:

      3.5 years of Zucker for JP and this year’s first round pick is close to fair value.

    • Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

      Interesting trade from a guy that thinks Brodin is worth 2 1sts.

  58. Dustylegnd says:

    Bank Shot: Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

    Markus Granlund also had a great 20 year old season in the A I believe. benson in’t dusting him yet. I think it is probably unlikely that Benson will come up and make a solid contribution.

    While it would be nice to see him in NHL action for a game or two, I’d also be pretty happy to see the guy finish his year in Bake and come back extra hungry to camp in the fall.

    Ohh I know Dube is a plus skater and he separated himself from Benson as a 16 year old in the W going to the mem cup playing on drais wing

    I have known Dillon since the day he was born having grown up with his parents, I saw him skate on his backyard rink at the age of 5 and it blew me away…

    I am therefore bias but try to remain objective

    I think Dube will always be the better player and the sad part is he had great chemistry with Drai in Kelowna and the Oil seemed to dismiss it on draft day peak when you are 28 not 14 I say

  59. Reja says:

    Bank Shot: Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

    Markus Granlund also had a great 20 year old season in the A I believe. benson in’t dusting him yet. I think it is probably unlikely that Benson will come up and make a solid contribution.

    While it would be nice to see him in NHL action for a game or two, I’d also be pretty happy to see the guy finish his year in Bake and come back extra hungry to camp in the fall.

    e
    Unless I have my dates mixed up who drafted Benson are they the same people that drafted Yamo.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    This is an interesting piece on CGY and their use of analytics:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/flames-gm-brad-treliving-discusses-team-uses-analytics/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Good info for “players’ impact on games go far beyond points”

  61. Material Elvis says:

    Reja: e
    Unless I have my dates mixed up who drafted Benson are they the same people that drafted Yamo.

    The same person who drafted Yamo also drafted David Pasternak.

  62. Reja says:

    Material Elvis: The same person who drafted Yamo also drafted David Pasternak.

    Yes I do know that but who’s left that had influence in Benson getting drafted.

  63. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – A significant trade where an established roster player(s) are traded for “better” ones won’t happen

    – A significant trade where we get a good player(s) for draft picks and/or prospects won’t happen

    – Part of this is because we are a playoff team now, and Holland won’t rock the boat

    – Part of this is because there are many teams that are close, so the risk of doing something “big”, doesn’t ensure that anything other than luck will determine playoffs

    – Part of this is because the team probably feels pretty good about their chances, and more turmoil at deadline might be hard to take

    – So let’s bring back Hockey please: I’ll eat my hat if anything other than minor move happen.

    – I predict a Maroon type deal: a plug and a 4rth for a guy who ended up being fire for awhile with McD: A deal that wasn’t much but with hindsight ended up huge.

    – I think Holland would be compelled to try and get a “spark” but not upset the cart IMO

  64. Reja says:

    Material Elvis:
    Bob Green and Keith Gretzky are the only guys left from that draft.

    My mistake I thought Benson was already drafted before Keith arrived.

  65. duct tape and foil says:

    Would need to be Russell going the other way or cap does not work next year. Agree it’s a hockey trade
    Zucker McDavid Kass
    RNH Drai Yamo
    Nygard Shea Archie
    Neal Haas Chaisson

    That group would be a load in the playoffs.

    ArmchairGM:
    An interesting trade suggestion from a Wild fan:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/301732

  66. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Something like Gagner and a pick for Sheary is the kind of low impact deal I could see Holland going after.

  67. Bulging Twine says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This is an interesting piece on CGY and their use of analytics:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/flames-gm-brad-treliving-discusses-team-uses-analytics/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Good info for “players’ impact on games go far beyond points”

    Interesting, says the team has so much information…..:

    “The simplistic way (assistant GM Chris Snow) broke it down, he says what’s available in the public sphere, it’d be like going to a game and turning the lights out for 50 seconds of every minute,” Treliving explained of the depth of information Calgary has. “So you’ve got basically an 8-to-10 second look at what happens in a game. A lot of the public information is anywhere between 300-500 events that take place in a game. We’re over 4,000. There’s just a whole lot more happening and you’re studying a whole lot more.

    “Not to poo-poo what’s out there, but we invest significant money, time, personnel, people to come up with the data we come up with and that’s just not what’s out there publicly.”

    …that fans are watching in the dark.

    That’s actually kind of discouraging to me. That we don’t have more info about players affects. Makes GF% etc. look almost….sillyish.

    I’ll encourage myself by saying, you can do a lot of good things during a game but what really matters is the puck going in and the puck staying out.
    Of course, they probably factor that in in their game scores, putting a high value on goals, so here i am discouraged again. just kidding around, kind of .

  68. Cassandra says:

    Reja: Your selling Adam’s value around the league short. At 27 affordable right-hand top 4 D don’t grow on trees.

    Is Larsson a RHD who plays in the top four on most teams in the league.

    I went and looked. The only teams that I think Larsson is clearly in the top 4 in the entire league are Chicago, Detroit, Anaheim, Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Vegas. How much value does that have? Every other team has 2 guys who are either in the same category as Larsson or better (including the Oilers).

    If you trade Larsson you are getting someone like Alex Tuch.

  69. Bulging Twine says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Something like Gagner and a pick for Sheary is the kind of low impact deal I could see Holland going after.

    Sheary is a guy I was looking at too. I hate talking hypotheticals but he’s a pending UFA. Plays either wing. Shoots left. 27 years old. 5th on the team in 5×5 pts/60. Has playoff experience (57 games). Stanley cup winner.

    • Bulging Twine says:

      4th on the team in 5×5 G/60 .76
      pts/60 5×5 is 1.6 btw

      51.16 GF% so he’s a plus there. (Vesey is better on this stat)

      Skinner is back for the next game and Oloffson is back soon. One or both of Sheary and Vesey could be made available??

  70. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This is an interesting piece on CGY and their use of analytics:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/flames-gm-brad-treliving-discusses-team-uses-analytics/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Good info for “players’ impact on games go far beyond points”

    Damn. All this time, money and effort put into scraping and compiling data from the NHL game sheets was misallocated.

    All we needed to do was find someone who could hack the Flames’ intranet.

    Would love to see that data.

  71. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This is an interesting piece on CGY and their use of analytics:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/flames-gm-brad-treliving-discusses-team-uses-analytics/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Good info for “players’ impact on games go far beyond points”

    Curious though that the Oilers have never been the subject of one of these “State of the Analytics World” type articles, hmmm…

    • Ribs says:

      This is a bit misleading. I think if you asked Bruce or Staples, they’d tell you about the long history of interaction between the stats world and Oilers management. They’ve hired an analytics company in the past, held a public contest to probe for analytic ideas (won by Parkatti), they’ve hired Tyler Dellow! They’ve met with GMoney to discuss ideas (and who knows what else), they’ve attended conventions. I think it’s been made public that they’ve employed Sportlogiq, They’ve had video of every player’s shifts (I forget which program this is). There’s more, I’m sure. This is just what comes to mind. They are involved.

      How much credence they give/have given any of this is admittedly up in the air, though!

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Not really interested in any rentals either, this team’s not very good. If you can get any term, sure. Palmieri has 1 year left after this.

    Nope, its not “very good” but its in the same tier as about 10-15 other middle of the pack teams.

    In fact, it may have even separated itself from the likes of NSH, MIN, WIN, MTL, BUF to be in a smaller tier of above average team.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: The kid deserves to be called up and yes he will be able to handle the physicality of the Big Bad Flames. If the organization doesn’t want to give this soon to be skilled 22 year-old kid a fair chance package him up where another team might see what the Oilers are missing.

    He’s earning his shot but usually teams that are 6-1-1 and have scored 33 goals in those 8 games aren’t rushing to call up 21 year old offensive minded rookies in their second year pro with zero NHL games experience and force them to start their NHL career in the middle of high pressure playoff race.

    He could get called up after the all-star game tonight but I think it may wait until the offence dries up a bit or there is an injury. Either way, he will be placed in to a high pressure playoff race which isn’t idea.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Btw, Breakfast in America was the 2nd album I bought as a kid.

    The first was Queen- The Game.

    Neal’s arm in LT’s post is strikingly like Libby’s on the cover of that album…..

  75. Harpers Hair says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Something like Gagner and a pick for Sheary is the kind of low impact deal I could see Holland going after.

    How does this benefit Buffalo unless it’s a very high pick?

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd: For the record, I said it’s hard to make an impact as a 21 year old on the 3rd line, I would have been relying on my eye test to add anymore opinion and since I don’t know where to access the deeper dive stats you provided I just left it alone

    The other comment I would add, is that his line does not get scored on when he is on the ice. I am not sure what his advanced stats show but he is plus 5 on a team with a terrible goal differential he is hard to play against.

    Lucic has been much more useful since Dube was called up and he also seems to have exceptional chemistry with Ryan….Dube is an excellent player with a complete Jr and international Resume as well as a plus skater…I hope Benson can provide a similar impact to the Oilers 3rd line soon

    I appreciate you having this conversation because it gives me a reason to spew thing that I believe in and it isn’t meant as an “rebuttal” to what you’ve said.

    I like Ryan and Lucic was never a drag on goals against so it makes sense that adding offensive talent to those two would have an impact.

    Marginal increases in ability can be huge in a 1 goal league.

    Adding offesive talent without sewering the play without the puck is critical and EDM has a lot of spots where that is needed, especially LW. (although Nuge is a pretty good LW….)

  77. Reja says:

    Cassandra: Is Larsson a RHD who plays in the top four on most teams in the league.

    I went and looked.The only teams that I think Larsson is clearly in the top 4 in the entire league are Chicago, Detroit, Anaheim, Winnipeg, Ottawa, and Vegas.How much value does that have?Every other team has 2 guys who are either in the same category as Larsson or better (including the Oilers).

    If you trade Larsson you are getting someone like Alex Tuch.

    I hope your wrong between family problems last year and his broken leg this year they would be selling low unless let’s say the Jets offered Ehlers. He’s only 27 shoots right he very well might be in the league 10 more years you know those Swedes. I expect him to start ramping it up the closer our team gets to the playoffs.

  78. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: My JP trade target: Casey Mittelstadt.

    I’ve proposed that and it’s a great idea you must be a sharp dude 🙂

    IF the Sabres are down on him you jump on it. Use JP and whatever not involving top prospects.

    It’s time the Oilers picked a few pockets.

    I’m still interested in Necas as well. Teams will become impatient or uncertain and that’s the time to come on down.

    • BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

      I’d love to steal some Necas, but next to no chance we get him. I’d almost bet we got Foegele before we got Necas.

      Especially CAR. They’re the new definition of a budget team, they might be more willing than most to wait it out for their own players to pop.

  79. Dustylegnd says:

    Reja: My mistake I thought Benson was already drafted before Keith arrived.

    Bob Green is your man, same love for Benson that he had for Reinhart

  80. Cassandra says:

    For those of you scoring at home Benning is + 7 at 5on5 this year.

    Bear is -3.

    Larsson is -11 (worst among D)

    Last year Benning was +9 (best GF% amongst D)

    Larsson was -32 (again worst among the regulars).

    You can blame Klefbom or competition or whatever, but that’s a big difference.

    I maintain that Benning is better than Larsson. And you guys all love Bear. And Bouchard is coming.

    If the Oilers are fielding their best lineup next year Larsson isn’t on it.

  81. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I appreciate you having this conversation because it gives me a reason to spew thing that I believe in and it isn’t meant as an “rebuttal” to what you’ve said.

    I like Ryan and Lucic was never a drag on goals against so it makes sense that adding offensive talent to those two would have an impact.

    Marginal increases in ability can be huge in a 1 goal league.

    Adding offesive talent without sewering the play without the puck is critical and EDM has a lot of spots where that is needed, especially LW. (although Nuge is a pretty good LW….)

    All good, I appreciate that you have easy access to the truly advanced stats data base and I prefer not trying to re-invent a less efficient wheel, good info provided on your part….these are the type of players every team needs on their 3rd line

  82. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s earning his shot but usually teams that are 6-1-1 and have scored 33 goals in those 8 games aren’t rushing to call up 21 year old offensive minded rookies in their second year pro with zero NHL games experience and force them to start their NHL career in the middle of high pressure playoff race.

    He could get called up after the all-star game tonight but I think it may wait until the offence dries up a bit or there is an injury. Either way, he will be placed in to a high pressure playoff race which isn’t idea.

    What exactly is the real reason he’s not being called up. He’s worked his ass off is well liked and might very well give us 4 lines that on any given night can win us the game. If he’s not in Holland’s plans package him up with say someone like Jones for a top sixer forward and let’s not sit and watch the playoffs go Bye-Bye Birdie.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

    What a player uses to create his value doesn’t matter nearly as much as “he creates value”

    Sometimes its plus skating, some times its plus puck skills, sometimes its plus thinking.

    The players that can combine two or more of those attributes usually aren’t argued about because they’re so good.

    There are no pictures on the game sheet.

    Also,

    Benson was pretty banged up until his 20 year old AHL year. His back thing was crazy.

    That said:

    Dube’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 1.05
    Benson’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 0.97

    That’s pretty close.

    Digging deeper:

    Dube has less PP pts/gm than Benson and that’s a good thing:

    Dube 20 year old PP pt/gm 0.27
    Benson 20 year old PP pts/gm 0.35

    Non PP pts/gm:
    Dube’s AHL 20 year old 0.74 pts/gm
    Benson’s AHL 20 year old 0.62/gm

    So Dube projects as a slightly better 5v5 pts/gm guy, but the variables in these results are pretty wide.

    What I discovered with Gmoney was the the vast majority of NHLers are “middling” players.

    They are among the best in the world, but among NHLers they’re “good”

    When you play “Gritensity” players with Elite players it drags theirs results down so bad that we don’t actually account for those minutes as “Elites” minutes, but “Middle”. Who a player plays with a big goddamn deal.

    I don’t think Benson will be the “answer” to anything, but he brings more offense than pretty much everyone on the roster.

    He could be a “middle’ that doesn’t drag down a player otherwise playing with a Gritensity player and that makes a big difference.

    Especially when they can’t expect to make much more than $1M/yr over the next few years.

    These are the cap efficiencies that a team needs to capitalize on while they have them.

  84. Reja says:

    Dustylegnd: Bob Green is your man, same love for Benson that he had for Reinhart

    How do you know Benson’s a bust without given him a opportunity especially with the numbers he’s shown in the AHL. It’s not Benson’s fault they screwed the pooch on Reinhart.

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Material Elvis: JP comes with a lot of baggage.The list of teams interested in paying decent value for his services would be limited.They likely end up dumping him for a draft pick.

    At least the GM is showing that he values JP, which as a negotiator is absolutely key, and for the org is a sea change of big time beaucoup proportions.

  86. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This is an interesting piece on CGY and their use of analytics:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/flames-gm-brad-treliving-discusses-team-uses-analytics/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Good info for “players’ impact on games go far beyond points”

    A couple of side notes here, Chris Snow their AGM in charge of advanced stats has ALS, he is on an experimental drug that has for now, made a big difference in his fight with a very particular type of ALS….many in his family have perished with this awful disease

    Eric Francis a horrifically bad journalist here in Calgary wrote an article speculating that Dube would most likely be sent back to the minors as Bennet et el regained their health, Dube was told to get an apartment last week and has seen the last of the AHL….

    This is the difference between well informed opinions like Woodguy who uses facts and data to form opinions and pompous goofs Like Francis…he is Calgarys Spec without the charming personality

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bank Shot,

    Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

    What a player uses to create his value doesn’t matter nearly as much as “he creates value”

    Sometimes its plus skating, some times its plus puck skills, sometimes its plus thinking.

    The players that can combine two or more of those attributes usually aren’t argued about because they’re so good.

    There are no pictures on the game sheet.

    Also,

    Benson was pretty banged up until his 20 year old AHL year.His back thing was crazy.

    That said:

    Dube’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 1.05
    Benson’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 0.97

    That’s pretty close.

    Digging deeper:

    Dube has less PP pts/gm than Benson and that’s a good thing:

    Dube 20 year old PP pt/gm 0.27
    Benson 20 year old PP pts/gm 0.35

    Non PP pts/gm:
    Dube’s AHL 20 year old0.74 pts/gm
    Benson’s AHL 20 year old 0.62/gm

    So Dube projects as a slightly better 5v5 pts/gm guy, but the variables in these results are pretty wide.

    What I discovered with Gmoney was the the vast majority of NHLers are “middling” players.

    They are among the best in the world, but among NHLers they’re “good”

    When you play “Gritensity” players with Elite players it drags theirs results down so bad that we don’t actually account for those minutes as “Elites” minutes, but “Middle”.Who a player plays with a big goddamn deal.

    I don’t think Benson will be the “answer” to anything, but he brings more offense than pretty much everyone on the roster.

    He could be a “middle’ that doesn’t drag down a player otherwise playing with a Gritensity player and that makes a big difference.

    Especially when they can’t expect to make much more than $1M/yr over the next few years.

    These are the cap efficiencies that a team needs to capitalize on while they have them.

    Many thanks to you and GM for your passion. I have often commented the same about most players being middling, not able to dominate without help, and that comes from the years of reading your insights and the many we in public don’t get to read anymore.

    • Woodguy v2.0 says:

      Too kind sir.

      Thank you.

      I often think of changing hobbies to something that would be more self-fulfilling…….

  88. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bank Shot,

    Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

    What a player uses to create his value doesn’t matter nearly as much as “he creates value”

    Sometimes its plus skating, some times its plus puck skills, sometimes its plus thinking.

    The players that can combine two or more of those attributes usually aren’t argued about because they’re so good.

    There are no pictures on the game sheet.

    Also,

    Benson was pretty banged up until his 20 year old AHL year.His back thing was crazy.

    That said:

    Dube’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 1.05
    Benson’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 0.97

    That’s pretty close.

    Digging deeper:

    Dube has less PP pts/gm than Benson and that’s a good thing:

    Dube 20 year old PP pt/gm 0.27
    Benson 20 year old PP pts/gm 0.35

    Non PP pts/gm:
    Dube’s AHL 20 year old0.74 pts/gm
    Benson’s AHL 20 year old 0.62/gm

    So Dube projects as a slightly better 5v5 pts/gm guy, but the variables in these results are pretty wide.

    What I discovered with Gmoney was the the vast majority of NHLers are “middling” players.

    They are among the best in the world, but among NHLers they’re “good”

    When you play “Gritensity” players with Elite players it drags theirs results down so bad that we don’t actually account for those minutes as “Elites” minutes, but “Middle”.Who a player plays with a big goddamn deal.

    I don’t think Benson will be the “answer” to anything, but he brings more offense than pretty much everyone on the roster.

    He could be a “middle’ that doesn’t drag down a player otherwise playing with a Gritensity player and that makes a big difference.

    Especially when they can’t expect to make much more than $1M/yr over the next few years.

    These are the cap efficiencies that a team needs to capitalize on while they have them.

    Very good post

  89. Dustylegnd says:

    Reja: How do you know Benson’s a bust without given him a opportunity especiallywith the numbers he’s shown in the AHL. It’s not Benson’s fault they screwed the pooch on Reinhart.

    nobody said he was going to be a bust, he was drafted where he was drafted because a) local boy b) local boy that broke Tie Ratties Bantam AAA scoring records….he then pretty much spent the next 4 years hurt…..hard to make a good evaluation on a player with limited playing time…thats why we didn’t want Barzal at #15 in 2015 so the story goes

    Why draft him where they drafted him????? because Bob saw him great as a 14 year old, and he is from Edmonton. Having said tha,t the Only 2nd round forward to have significantly outscored Benson is De Brincat who seemed like a no brainer fit with McDavid…..

    Dube seemed like a good fit with Draisaitl…..Benson may be the better player than Dube…we don’t know….I think he could have been had in the 3rd round as we had #63 #81 and #91 that year its little mistakes like this that are made over and over again that led to decades of Darkness

  90. dessert1111 says:

    I’m fine that Benson hasn’t been brought up yet but I think the play is to call him up within the next couple of weeks to give him a test drive before the deadline. If he looks good, you can focus pretty much entirely on bringing in an upgrade on 3C, which should be doable for something a little less than a second round pick.

    That would be the ideal deadline for this team, IMO: a small add or two to balance the roster without giving up any valuable futures.

  91. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bank Shot,

    Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

    What a player uses to create his value doesn’t matter nearly as much as “he creates value”

    Sometimes its plus skating, some times its plus puck skills, sometimes its plus thinking.

    The players that can combine two or more of those attributes usually aren’t argued about because they’re so good.

    There are no pictures on the game sheet.

    Also,

    Benson was pretty banged up until his 20 year old AHL year.His back thing was crazy.

    That said:

    Dube’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 1.05
    Benson’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 0.97

    That’s pretty close.

    Digging deeper:

    Dube has less PP pts/gm than Benson and that’s a good thing:

    Dube 20 year old PP pt/gm 0.27
    Benson 20 year old PP pts/gm 0.35

    Non PP pts/gm:
    Dube’s AHL 20 year old0.74 pts/gm
    Benson’s AHL 20 year old 0.62/gm

    So Dube projects as a slightly better 5v5 pts/gm guy, but the variables in these results are pretty wide.

    What I discovered with Gmoney was the the vast majority of NHLers are “middling” players.

    They are among the best in the world, but among NHLers they’re “good”

    When you play “Gritensity” players with Elite players it drags theirs results down so bad that we don’t actually account for those minutes as “Elites” minutes, but “Middle”.Who a player plays with a big goddamn deal.

    I don’t think Benson will be the “answer” to anything, but he brings more offense than pretty much everyone on the roster.

    He could be a “middle’ that doesn’t drag down a player otherwise playing with a Gritensity player and that makes a big difference.

    Especially when they can’t expect to make much more than $1M/yr over the next few years.

    These are the cap efficiencies that a team needs to capitalize on while they have them.

    Great post. Thank you.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd: All good, I appreciate that you have easy access to the truly advanced stats data base and I prefer not trying to re-invent a less efficient wheel, good info provided on your part….these are the type of players every team needs on their 3rd line

    What I show here aren’t “advanced stats” imo.

    Its stuff we get from shot and goal volume.

    Its tells a lot, but not near what a handful off teams can figure out.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd: A coupleof side notes here, Chris Snow their AGM in charge of advanced stats has ALS, he is on an experimental drug that has for now, made a big difference in his fight with a very particular type of ALS….many in his family have perished with this awful disease

    Eric Francis a horrifically bad journalist here in Calgary wrote an article speculating that Dube would most likely be sent back to the minors as Bennet et el regained their health, Dube was told to get an apartment last week and has seen the last of the AHL….

    This is the difference between well informed opinions like Woodguy who uses facts and data to form opinions and pompous goofs Like Francis…he is Calgarys Spec without the charming personality

    Kinds words sir. Not necessary, but appreciated.

    It doesn’t sit well with me that CGY may have an advantage over EDM simply due to parsing data.

    The volume of data available to NHL teams is vast (much deeper than public) but I’m also told that most teams don’t do near enough with it that they could.

    That doesn’t surprise me.

    When I started my business its not like there were not already companies/people filling those needs.

    Its always possible to do better than “industry standard”

    I don’t know how to make EDM spend some money smartly on this area. I wish I knew.

    Its easy to spend money dumbly.

  94. VanIsleOil says:

    I really like the way Archibald injects a lot of energy when he’s on the ice. He probably gets a lot of his piss and vinegar from his Dad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgr6p8L4emY&feature=youtu.be

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – A significant trade where an established roster player(s) are traded for “better” ones won’t happen

    – A significant trade where we get a good player(s) for draft picks and/or prospects won’t happen

    – Part of this is because we are a playoff team now, and Holland won’t rock the boat

    – Part of this is because there are many teams that are close, so the risk of doing something “big”, doesn’t ensurethat anything other than luck will determine playoffs

    – Part of this is because the team probably feels pretty good about their chances, and more turmoil at deadline might be hard to take

    – So let’s bring back Hockey please: I’ll eat my hat if anything other than minor move happen.

    – I predict a Maroon type deal: a plug and a 4rth for a guy who ended up being fire for awhile with McD: A deal that wasn’t much butwith hindsight ended up huge.

    – I think Holland would be compelled to try and get a “spark” but not upset the cart IMO

    The fist statement is likely true because not many “hockey trades” happen at this time of year – the cap implications hinder that ability to consummate.

    The next few sentences don’t really jive together with Ken’s stated strategy depending on the interpretation of the word “significant”.

    A few of the reasons you state for him not making such a trade are the exact reasons he has stated he may in fact be a buyer – he has stated that he will look to buy (so prospects/picks out for player(s) in) if the team is looking like a playoff team and feeling/looking good. He has been express that, if that is the case, he feels like he owes the team a boost.

    Now, of course, we can be quite certain that the 1st rounder, Bouchard, etc. are not on the table for any rental and would only be moved in a “hockey trade” that is unlikely. At the same time, if the team is playing well and in the thick of things it seems likely he’ll make a move for secondary/tertiary type player.

    I agree it will be somewhat of a depth trade (or two) but that could be “signifigant” – Granlund for example could cost the 2nd and a prospects – that would be significant and a deal I could see him make.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leafs up 2-1 on NSH after 1.

  97. defmn says:

    Benson & Bouchard named as 2 of 7 AHL players at the All Star game “poised for imminent NHL call-up’. Nothing in the piece everybody here doesn’t already know but interesting that 2 of 7 are Oilers prospects.

    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/future-watch-seven-ahl-all-stars-poised-for-an-imminent-nhl-call-up

  98. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Kinds words sir.Not necessary, but appreciated.

    It doesn’t sit well with me that CGY may have an advantage over EDM simply due to parsing data.

    The volume of data available to NHL teams is vast (much deeper than public) but I’m also told that most teams don’t do near enough with it that they could.

    That doesn’t surprise me.

    When I started my business its not like there were not already companies/people filling those needs.

    Its always possible to do better than “industry standard”

    I don’t know how to make EDM spend some money smartly on this area.I wish I knew.

    Its easy to spend money dumbly.

    The advantage the Oilers over the flames is super elite forwards, which is the most difficult to asset to attain…. we in theory have a couple of elite D on the ways as well…..if we accept that hockey is a strong link game, second only to basketball, rather than a weak link game like soccer…..we should be able to fill out the bottom 6 with clever analytics…..now we just need to invest more assets in advanced stats…..who in the organization will drive that change….oh we need elite goal tending as well

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: How does this benefit Buffalo unless it’s a very high pick?

    Like any deadline type trade helps a selling team out of the playoff race.

    Sheary is a 30-35 point middle six guy on an expiring contract – to get a mid-round pick for him would be a solid deal. They could take Gagner without worry as his contract expires so no cap implications past this year – that may increase the acquisition cost a tiny but but, at the end of the day, I’m not sure than money out would be required for Sheary.

    I understand your most talked about team has failed to smartly make these types of future oriented moves when they should have recently so I understand no understanding.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: What exactly is the real reason he’s not being called up. He’s worked his ass off is well liked and might very well give us 4 lines that on any given night can win us the game. If he’s not in Holland’s plans package him up with say someone like Jones for a top sixer forward and let’s not sit and watch the playoffs go Bye-Bye Birdie.

    To reiterate, the team has scored 33 goals in the last 8 games and won 6.5 of those 8 games.

    The scoring has come from most of the lineup.

    The current schedule starts with some very high pressure games and, as of now, scoring goals and balance is not a primary concern.

    Its seems the time to call him up will be when the secondary scoring dries up a bit or an injury to a top 9 player occurs – likely won’t be long.

  101. who says:

    Numenius:
    Yes, it would be folly for any reasonable trade. If you can get Ehlers back, though, it would be brilliant.

    That would be an asymmetrical trade almost like the Hall trade.

    That would be a lot more onesided than the Hall trade. 5 years of Ehlers at 6 million for 1 year of Larrson at 4 million? Who in the hell thinks Winnipeg makes that trade?
    I doubt that Klefbom gets you Ehlers

  102. duct tape and foil says:

    Anyone got some time for LW Erik Haula? UFA in the summer and might be had for a reasonable amount. Can never have too many Finns? Well maybe except for JP…….

  103. Richard Roma says:

    Cassandra:
    For those of you scoring at home Benning is + 7 at 5on5 this year.

    Bear is -3.

    Larsson is -11 (worst among D)

    Last year Benning was +9 (best GF% amongst D)

    Larsson was -32 (again worst among the regulars).

    You can blame Klefbom or competition or whatever, but that’s a big difference.

    I maintain that Benning is better than Larsson.And you guys all love Bear.And Bouchard is coming.

    If the Oilers are fielding their best lineup next year Larsson isn’t on it.

    Benning is sheltered with 3rd pairing comp / on-the-fly shifts, but we’d already had a glimpse of the Oilers without Larsson.

    It wasn’t so bad.

    I think Larsson is vastly overrated.

    The play nearly always dies on his stick, he can’t outlet the puck, and he has limited speed. I’m too lazy to look, but I’m certain he has a poor penalty differential.

    He’s one of those guys you think you need until you don’t and you really don’t… sort of like Russell.

  104. who says:

    Cassandra:
    Mittelstadt has 10 pts in 17 games while sporting a -5.

    The shine isn’t there.He has no real track record of putting up offense.Is he better than Tage Thompson?

    Plus his profile is as a PP guy, and the Oilers don’t need that.

    There are way better players to target.

    I also think it is funny that there are people on this board who think that the Oilers should trade Larsson for someone like Ehlers (as if the Jets would ever do that) and there are others who think that would be bad idea for the Oilers (which is shocking).

    The Oilers can’t trade Larsson because they aren’t going to get anything good for Larsson.So what is the point?

    There is nothing interesting on any of the trade boards.Stay out of it unless you can get rid of Russell or Neal somehow.Call up Benson and Benning, improve from within.

    Trade deadline deals are almost always bad value propositions.There is no reason to make these deals.

    I agree with staying away from expensive deadline deals.
    Always liked Middlestat though. Lot of skill there. Needs a new start, just like JP.

  105. jm363561 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Amazing article. Benson suffered serious injury setbacks and has played on an average team so far. If he remains injury free he may be even better than your article suggests.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leafs now up 4-1 on Nashville.

    Good for Oilers and the playoffs.

    Good for Granlund being sold.

  107. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: To reiterate, the team has scored 33 goals in the last 8 games and won 6.5 of those 8 games.

    The scoring has come from most of the lineup.

    The current schedule starts with some very high pressure games and, as of now, scoring goals and balance is not a primary concern.

    Its seems the time to call him up will be when the secondary scoring dries up a bit or an injury to a top 9 player occurs – likely won’t be long.

    We’re not exactly busting out of the seams with forward talent Leon and Connor have needed help all year. Benson is ready it’s time to see what we have and if taking a 1 or 2 goal scorer out of the line-up is going to disrupt team scoring then we are in some serious trouble. We need 3 or 4 lines going you can’t continue to play Leon and Connor these insane minutes if you expect to make a run in the playoffs.

  108. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Like any deadline type trade helps a selling team out of the playoff race.

    Sheary is a 30-35 point middle six guy on an expiring contract – to get a mid-round pick for him would be a solid deal. They could take Gagner without worry as his contract expires so no cap implications past this year – that may increase the acquisition cost a tiny but but, at the end of the day, I’m not sure than money out would be required for Sheary.

    I understand your most talked about team has failed to smartly make these types of future oriented moves when they should have recently so I understand no understanding.

    If you think a low pick and Gagner’s bloated contract is all that it will take to get Sheary, perhaps you should re-examine the market.

    Not sure what the Canucks have to do with this but just a reminder that they were the team that foisted Gagner on the Oilers.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd: nobody said he was going to be a bust, he was drafted where he was drafted because a) local boy b) local boy that broke Tie Ratties Bantam AAA scoring records….he then pretty much spent the next 4 years hurt…..hard to make a good evaluation on a player with limited playing time…thats why we didn’t want Barzal at #15 in 2015 so the story goes

    Why draft him where they drafted him????? because Bob saw him great as a 14 year old, and he is from Edmonton. Having said tha,t the Only 2nd round forward to have significantly outscored Benson is De Brincat who seemed like a no brainer fit with McDavid…..

    I think this may be just a bit dishonest and speculative for the narrative, no?

    Yes, there was the local factor and, sure, maybe that did indeed play a large or a small role. At the same time, Benson at 32 was far from an off-the-board pick – he was ranked in the top round by many projections.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    TO just about to put the finishing touches on Nashville – great result.

    STL up 1-0 on Vancouver early – solid start.

    Dal is up 2-1 on Tampa though, about half way through the 2nd.

  111. Reja says:

    Dustylegnd: nobody said he was going to be a bust, he was drafted where he was drafted because a) local boy b) local boy that broke Tie Ratties Bantam AAA scoring records….he then pretty much spent the next 4 years hurt…..hard to make a good evaluation on a player with limited playing time…thats why we didn’t want Barzal at #15 in 2015 so the story goes

    Why draft him where they drafted him????? because Bob saw him great as a 14 year old, and he is from Edmonton. Having said tha,t the Only 2nd round forward to have significantly outscored Benson is De Brincat who seemed like a no brainer fit with McDavid…..

    Dube seemed like a good fit with Draisaitl…..Benson may be the better player than Dube…we don’t know….I think he could have been had in the 3rd round as we had #63 #81 and #91 that year its little mistakes like this that are made over and over again that led to decades of Darkness

    In hindsight yes they should have drafted Da Brincat but it’s not Benson’s fault. You believe he’s still around at pic 63 I don’t. Since you’ve viewed this player with the Giants and the condors what exactly does he need to do before he gets a call-up. I’m really cheering that this young man’s hard work and skill translates to the NHL level.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    Benson & Bouchard named as 2 of 7 AHL players at the All Star game “poised for imminent NHL call-up’. Nothing in the piece everybody here doesn’t already know but interesting that 2 of 7 are Oilers prospects.

    https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/future-watch-seven-ahl-all-stars-poised-for-an-imminent-nhl-call-up

    If by imminent, they mean this season, I posit they will be wrong on Bouchard.

    Not that he’s not developing at a rapid pace, he surely is and has taken off in all areas of the game over the last 4-6 weeks, however, I’m confidant Holland wants to:

    1) continue that development
    2) not bring a 20 year old rookie d-man in to the NHL lineup in the midst of a pressure filled playoff race when the team has a solid 8-9 legit NHL d-men and are healthy (at least for now)
    3) not burn a year of his ELC at this stage

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    I push “watch now” on my GameCenter and, boom, Stamkos ties it up with about 90 seconds left.

    Hopefully they can keep Dallas to the single point (but it looks like, at the least, they’ll take away a regulation win – well, still 86 seconds to go).

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Anyone got some time for LW Erik Haula? UFA in the summer and might be had for a reasonable amount. Can never have too many Finns? Well maybe except for JP…….

    Wouldn’t that subsume the Canes “selling”?

    Wouldn’t they want something back that helps their current roster?

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dallas gets the win on OT – at least they didn’t get the regulation win.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: We’re not exactly busting out of the seams with forward talent Leon and Connor have needed help all year. Benson is ready it’s time to see what we have and if taking a 1 or 2 goal scorer out of the line-upis going to disrupt team scoring then we are in some serious trouble. We need 3 or 4 lines going you can’t continue to play Leon and Connor these insane minutes if you expect to make a run in the playoffs.

    Yes, they have needed help all year but, since the turn of the calendar, 8 games, they’ve received that help. The team is scoring at league leading rates in 2020 and, yes, they have had 3 lines going.

    It won’t continue without blip and the blip is when it makes sense to call up the skill player, not when the team is rolling offensively.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited to see Benson in the NHL and look forward to it – just don’t agree it needs to happen right now given how well the team has been playing and scoring. Its producing with balance.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: If you think a low pick and Gagner’s bloated contract is all that it will take to get Sheary, perhaps you should re-examine the market.

    Not sure what the Canucks have to do with this but just a reminder that they were the team that foisted Gagner on the Oilers.

    How do you know what the market is on middling middle 6 wingers on expiring contracts?

    I”m guessing its not a high round pick and, as I stated, Gagner’s contract out is not required for the Oilers to consummate that trade today or at the deadline.

    Seriously, “foisted Gagner on the Oilers”??????

    In exchange for Ryan Spooner who provided a $1M cap hit to the Canucks, this year and next, to play in Europe.

    • Harpers Hair says:

      Good grief.

      Yeah the Sabres are going to trade an actual NHL player for a 4th round pick AND TAKE ON Gagner’s contract.

      I’d imagine there are 29 NHL teams that could beat that offer.

      BTW…a $1 million cap hit is less than a $3.5 million cap hit.

  118. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Too kind sir.

    Thank you.

    I often think of changing hobbies to something that would be more self-fulfilling…….

    “Darcy, its high time you started on the pysanky for Easter”.

    “Aww gee whiz…”

  119. duct tape and foil says:

    ….and Bonino

    OriginalPouzar:
    Leafs now up 4-1 on Nashville.

    Good for Oilers and the playoffs.

    Good for Granlund being sold.

  120. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    An interesting trade suggestion from a Wild fan:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/301732

    That’s basically the JT Miller trade.

    • godot10 says:

      Except Zucker is a couple of years older. In his prime years already, not like Miller just entering them.

  121. duct tape and foil says:

    OriginalPouzar: How do you know what the market is on middling middle 6 wingers on expiring contracts?

    I”m guessing its not a high round pick and, as I stated, Gagner’s contract out is not required for the Oilers to consummate that trade today or at the deadline.

    Seriously, “foisted Gagner on the Oilers”??????

    In exchange for Ryan Spooner who provided a $1M cap hit to the Canucks, this year and next, to play in Europe.

    Please don’t feed the troll – his last comment was equal parts idiotic and desperate for attention.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    ….and Bonino

    Ya, that extra year of term at his overpriced salary makes the trade less than ideal.

    Sure, if we could swap Russell for his (big if) but then, the $4M of Russell cap space is spent on a useful but overpriced player – would rather take Russell’s $4M and spend it well.

    • Rich M says:

      Nashville is in trouble right now. Ellis still not skating thanks to the elbow from (Katy) Perry in the Winter Classic and the defense is struggling mightily (Fabbro playing too high/too soon in the lineup and Weber, Irwin, Hamhuis are done). Plus they’re struggling to adjust to a new system and playing tentative.

      Am hearing that Poile has been sitting on trades but after a trip to Washington Weds, then NJ away Thursday followed be Vegas (home) Saturday and a trip Winnipeg next Tues, they could be done and in sell mode very shortly.

  123. Yegfoundation says:

    It seems like it’s been a decade of reading DSF consistently troll some smart folks on this blog.

    It’s been an absolute pleasure to witness OP handle DSF with skill and poise regularly.

    All is right in the world again.

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.

    They have won the season series against the Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.

    Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.

  125. jp says:

    Jethro Tull: For a fair comparison, you must compare Granlund when he was Benson’s age.
    Granlund has rarely been a PPG player at any level, at any stage of his career.
    Benson has the way higher ceiling than Granlund.
    In a betting world, the choice between a 21yo skill player with superior career numbers and a 26yo career bottom sixer should be obvious, particularly when the audition is for a skill line and the 26yo has already had a crack at the NHL this year and couldn’t stick.

    We know what Granlund is at this stage so I agree Benson has a much higher potential ceiling. And his game very well could translate to something better than Granlund’s at the NHL level (much like Yamamoto’s has).

    At the same time, it seems that they are comparable players in the AHL right now. I don’t see a strong argument that we should expect Benson to be the better NHL player today.

    Some of this has been covered already, but Benson vs. Granlund (at the same age) is actually a really interesting comparison.

    Both 2nd round picks (Benson 32nd, Granlund 45th).

    Benson played draft +1 and +2 in the WHL. 33GP-42PTS and 58GP-69PTS

    Granlund played draft +1 and +2 in Finland. 47GP-34PTS and 50GP-30PTS (also 7PG-7PTS and 6GP-12PTS at the World Jrs).

    We all know that Benson had a big year in the AHL at age 20 (68-15-51-66).

    At the same age (actually a month younger) Granlund scored 52-25-21-46 in the AHL (and 7-2-1-3 in the NHL).

    Age 21, Benson has scored 42-9-26-35 in the AHL. Granlund scored 21-9-8-17 in the AHL and 48-10-8-18 in the NHL at age 21.

    They’ve actually scored at almost identical rates in the AHL at the same age. And I you had to choose, IMO it’s clear Granlund has the edge prior to their respective 22nd birthdays.

    I do think Benson will be a good NHLer. I think he’s NHL ready now but I also don’t see any urgency getting him onto the Oilers roster. IMO it’s possible (but pretty unlikely) that he’d bring much more than Granlund for the balance of 2019-20, but who knows?

  126. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: If by imminent, they mean this season, I posit they will be wrong on Bouchard.

    Not that he’s not developing at a rapid pace, he surely is and has taken off in all areas of the game over the last 4-6 weeks, however, I’m confidant Holland wants to:

    1) continue that development
    2) not bring a 20 year old rookie d-man in to the NHL lineup in the midst of a pressure filled playoff race when the team has a solid 8-9 legit NHL d-men and are healthy (at least for now)
    3) not burn a year of his ELC at this stage

    I agree. I just thought it was worth noting that 2 of 7 were Oilers. Nice to read some positive thoughts from outside the organization on our prospects.

  127. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.

    They have won the season series againstthe Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.

    Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.

    There’s only one real deal in these parts and his first name is James.

  128. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: There’s only one real deal in these parts and his first name is James.

    James hasn’t scored a goal in January.

    He might want to step up.

  129. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair: How does this benefit Buffalo unless it’s a very high pick?

    You’re so needlessly obtuse.

    The same reason any trade of a pending UFA benefits any team trading them. They’re 10 points out of the playoffs and it’s entirely likely they’ll be selling at the deadline.

    I realize you’ve made it your sacred mission to try to keep people realistic, but how does Sheary warrant much more than that? If he were an Oiler and we were discussing his trade value, he wouldn’t register as much more than a 3rd (which is consequently what my offer would be) and I’m sure you’d be quick to remind everyone of this fact.

  130. maudite says:

    Reja,

    I went to two games this year. One in vegas (vs coyotes) and one here (vs laughs). The tv time outs and just random half-filled babble between whistles felt like it had grown a lot.

    If you factor number of connor McDavid controlled power play entries and the breaks in, there is some bonus minutes in there that definitely inflate those minutes.

  131. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.

    They have won the season series againstthe Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.

    Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.

    We are happy for you. You must be so proud!

  132. ArmchairGM says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Something like Gagner and a pick for Sheary is the kind of low impact deal I could see Holland going after.

    I’m not sure targeting Sheary is the right move – we already have a 5’8″ winger on the roster. I’d rather see Vesey and/or Girgensons added, both are bigger, cheaper and better defensively while posting similar offense.

    They both also PK, although they wouldn’t likely be Tippett’s first choice over the boards. How much of the GA/60 number is on the goalies? Here are the two BUF players 4v5 stats along with EDM’s six most utilized PK forwards.

    TOI/GP
    Girgensons 2:25 (1st on BUF)
    Sheahan 2:11
    Archibald 2:09
    Khaira 1:36
    Nugent-Hopkins 1:29
    Vesey 1:18 (6th on BUF)
    Granlund 1:14
    Russell 1:00

    SA/60
    Nugent-Hopkins 42.2
    Khaira 42.83
    Russell 56.02
    Girgensons 57.75
    Granlund 58.91
    Sheahan 60.31
    Vesey 61.42
    Archibald 63.26

    GA/60 (on-ice Sv%)
    Khaira 2.68 (.938)
    Archibald 5.56 (.912)
    Nugent-Hopkins 5.63 (.867)
    Sheahan 6.22 (.897)
    Girgensons 9.62 (.833)
    Vesey 10.24 (.833)
    Granlund 10.85 (.816)
    Russell 13.07 (.767)

    xGA/60
    Khaira 5.55
    Archibald 5.97
    Nugent-Hopkins 6.01
    Sheahan 6.29
    Girgensons 6.51
    Russell 6.68
    Vesey 6.75
    Granlund 7.90

    HDCA/60
    Archibald 13.90
    Sheahan 15.54
    Russell 16.80
    Khaira 16.95
    Girgensons 19.25
    Nugent-Hopkins 20.63
    Vesey 21.50
    Granlund 26.36

  133. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell

    https://theathletic.com/1565110/2020/01/28/lowetide-why-the-oilers-are-more-likely-to-trade-adam-larsson-than-kris-russell/

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair:
    Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.

    They have won the season series againstthe Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.

    Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.

    Well, if one is being completely honest, they would mention that they are tied with the Oilers in RW and have played an extra game.

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