Breakfast in America

by Lowetide

James Neal has 19 goals this season and is a big part of the Edmonton Oilers’ first half success. Seven of his goals are at even strength and 12 are on the power play, but they all count. One of the areas Ken Holland will want to increase the efficiency of his team is five on five production. It is not a strength for Neal, and that puts the roster in a tough situation.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Is there real trade deadline value in the Edmonton Oilers’ prospect pipeline?
  • New Lowetide: ‘Connor McDavid: Whatever It Takes’ works as breaking news, drama and personality profile
  • New Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hey, Sparky, can you do that?’: How the Oilers’ AHL video coach got his start as the Islanders’ mascot.
  • Eric Duhatschek: He’s special’: The people who know him best tell the story of how Leon Draisaitl took the NHL by storm
  • Pierre Lebrun: Where all 31 teams stand one month before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
  • Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Lowetide:  Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

LINES TO START THE SECOND HALF

Oilers were on the ice yesterday (even the All-Stars) giving us an idea about the lines or pairings. Change may come in the next couple of days and there’s some evidence that the No. 1 line would be a good place to tweak. I like to run numbers from the last 10 games, gives us an idea about ‘what have you done for me lately’ and they aren’t pretty for two members of the top line. All numbers five on five, via NST.

LINE 1: James Neal [10, 1-1-2 0.86]-Connor McDavid [10, 4-3-7 2.62]-Zack Kassian [8, 0-2-2 1.01].

James Neal needs a hot streak, and goodness knows he’s capable. However, you can’t call them up on demand and it’s been a long time for Neal. Over the last two seasons, in 1414 minutes five on five, Neal has scored 10-11-21 (0.89) in Calgary and now Edmonton. He’s Boog Powell in 1976. Neal has some injuries and I do think he’s better than the numbers show over the last 10 games. He needs to hit a big fly or two. His on-ice goal differential (8-5) is better than both McDavid (8-8) and Kassian (4-6) during this period, I have no explanation for you. Kassian’s offense is low compared to the rest of his season but is not a tragedy if he can pot some goals in the next 10 games. McDavid is McDavid, shock and awe squared.

LINE 2: Nuge [10, 6-1-7 2.87]-Leon Draisaitl [10, 0-6-6 2.28]-Kailer Yamamoto [8, 2-3-5 2.58].

This line has eight goals between them five on five and we shouldn’t expect the same production in the next 10. Three things: Nuge has more torque on his shot, Leon is out of his funk and Yamamoto accomplished what he couldn’t two in the previous two seasons: Belong.

LINE 3: Joakim Nygard [10, 1-2-3 1.76]-Riley Sheahan [10, 2-3-5 2.90]-Josh Archibald [10, 2-2-4 2.35].

All three players are apparently in the plans for next year, and that represents three successful bets. Sheahan is not the player we saw early in the year, coming off an injury obscured his abilities. Archibald was outstanding with 97 when Kassian was out, wonder how long before we see it again.

LINE 4: Jujhar Khaira [6, 0-1-1 0.99]-Gaetan Haas [10, 1-0-1 0.69]-Alex Chiasson [9, 2-0-2 1.28] plus Sam Gagner [4, 1-0-1 1.31] and Patrick Russell [4, 0-0-0].

Just as the second line has drilled opponents over the last 10 games, the fourth line and extras have struggled. We should expect a little recovery over the next 10 from these five men. Not sure all of them will still be here.

ADDING TO MCDAVID’S LINE

One player who would be an interesting acquisition is Columbus Blue Jackets winger Josh Anderson. Aaron Portzline has an article up about the contract situation, Anderson hasn’t played since December 14 due to a shoulder injury.

Anderson is perhaps an ideal RW target for McDavid’s wing: He’s skilled, big, tough, shoots the puck and plays a responsible game. 27 goals a year ago. A terrific target if healthy.

The ideal candidate is Chris Kreider. He brings power and speed and scoring ability, and is durable. He would require Holland dealing from the top of the prospect pool and I don’t see it happening.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the show, TSN1260 beginning at 10. The sports world has a heavy heart today, the death of Kobe and Gianna Bryant is on everyone’s mind. Carlan Gay from NBA Canada will join us to help put this event in some kind of perspective, to try and make sense of it. Jason Strudwick joins at 11 and we’ll chat Oilers-Flames, the recall of an enforcer and the message it sends, and about the race to the playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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OriginalPouzar

HarpersHair:
Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.

They have won the season series againstthe Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.

Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.

Well, if one is being completely honest, they would mention that they are tied with the Oilers in RW and have played an extra game.

ArmchairGM

Why do you hate Adam Larsson??

ArmchairGM

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Something like Gagner and a pick for Sheary is the kind of low impact deal I could see Holland going after.

I’m not sure targeting Sheary is the right move – we already have a 5’8″ winger on the roster. I’d rather see Vesey and/or Girgensons added, both are bigger, cheaper and better defensively while posting similar offense.

They both also PK, although they wouldn’t likely be Tippett’s first choice over the boards. How much of the GA/60 number is on the goalies? Here are the two BUF players 4v5 stats along with EDM’s six most utilized PK forwards.

TOI/GP
Girgensons 2:25 (1st on BUF)
Sheahan 2:11
Archibald 2:09
Khaira 1:36
Nugent-Hopkins 1:29
Vesey 1:18 (6th on BUF)
Granlund 1:14
Russell 1:00

SA/60
Nugent-Hopkins 42.2
Khaira 42.83
Russell 56.02
Girgensons 57.75
Granlund 58.91
Sheahan 60.31
Vesey 61.42
Archibald 63.26

GA/60 (on-ice Sv%)
Khaira 2.68 (.938)
Archibald 5.56 (.912)
Nugent-Hopkins 5.63 (.867)
Sheahan 6.22 (.897)
Girgensons 9.62 (.833)
Vesey 10.24 (.833)
Granlund 10.85 (.816)
Russell 13.07 (.767)

xGA/60
Khaira 5.55
Archibald 5.97
Nugent-Hopkins 6.01
Sheahan 6.29
Girgensons 6.51
Russell 6.68
Vesey 6.75
Granlund 7.90

HDCA/60
Archibald 13.90
Sheahan 15.54
Russell 16.80
Khaira 16.95
Girgensons 19.25
Nugent-Hopkins 20.63
Vesey 21.50
Granlund 26.36

ArmchairGM

Harpers Hair:
Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.

They have won the season series againstthe Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.

Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.

We are happy for you. You must be so proud!

maudite

Reja,

I went to two games this year. One in vegas (vs coyotes) and one here (vs laughs). The tv time outs and just random half-filled babble between whistles felt like it had grown a lot.

If you factor number of connor McDavid controlled power play entries and the breaks in, there is some bonus minutes in there that definitely inflate those minutes.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Harpers Hair: How does this benefit Buffalo unless it’s a very high pick?

You’re so needlessly obtuse.

The same reason any trade of a pending UFA benefits any team trading them. They’re 10 points out of the playoffs and it’s entirely likely they’ll be selling at the deadline.

I realize you’ve made it your sacred mission to try to keep people realistic, but how does Sheary warrant much more than that? If he were an Oiler and we were discussing his trade value, he wouldn’t register as much more than a 3rd (which is consequently what my offer would be) and I’m sure you’d be quick to remind everyone of this fact.

Harpers Hair

Reja: There’s only one real deal in these parts and his first name is James.

James hasn’t scored a goal in January.

He might want to step up.

Reja

Harpers Hair:
Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.

They have won the season series againstthe Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.

Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.

There’s only one real deal in these parts and his first name is James.

defmn

OriginalPouzar: If by imminent, they mean this season, I posit they will be wrong on Bouchard.

Not that he’s not developing at a rapid pace, he surely is and has taken off in all areas of the game over the last 4-6 weeks, however, I’m confidant Holland wants to:

1) continue that development
2) not bring a 20 year old rookie d-man in to the NHL lineup in the midst of a pressure filled playoff race when the team has a solid 8-9 legit NHL d-men and are healthy (at least for now)
3) not burn a year of his ELC at this stage

I agree. I just thought it was worth noting that 2 of 7 were Oilers. Nice to read some positive thoughts from outside the organization on our prospects.

jp

Jethro Tull: For a fair comparison, you must compare Granlund when he was Benson’s age.
Granlund has rarely been a PPG player at any level, at any stage of his career.
Benson has the way higher ceiling than Granlund.
In a betting world, the choice between a 21yo skill player with superior career numbers and a 26yo career bottom sixer should be obvious, particularly when the audition is for a skill line and the 26yo has already had a crack at the NHL this year and couldn’t stick.

We know what Granlund is at this stage so I agree Benson has a much higher potential ceiling. And his game very well could translate to something better than Granlund’s at the NHL level (much like Yamamoto’s has).

At the same time, it seems that they are comparable players in the AHL right now. I don’t see a strong argument that we should expect Benson to be the better NHL player today.

Some of this has been covered already, but Benson vs. Granlund (at the same age) is actually a really interesting comparison.

Both 2nd round picks (Benson 32nd, Granlund 45th).

Benson played draft +1 and +2 in the WHL. 33GP-42PTS and 58GP-69PTS

Granlund played draft +1 and +2 in Finland. 47GP-34PTS and 50GP-30PTS (also 7PG-7PTS and 6GP-12PTS at the World Jrs).

We all know that Benson had a big year in the AHL at age 20 (68-15-51-66).

At the same age (actually a month younger) Granlund scored 52-25-21-46 in the AHL (and 7-2-1-3 in the NHL).

Age 21, Benson has scored 42-9-26-35 in the AHL. Granlund scored 21-9-8-17 in the AHL and 48-10-8-18 in the NHL at age 21.

They’ve actually scored at almost identical rates in the AHL at the same age. And I you had to choose, IMO it’s clear Granlund has the edge prior to their respective 22nd birthdays.

I do think Benson will be a good NHLer. I think he’s NHL ready now but I also don’t see any urgency getting him onto the Oilers roster. IMO it’s possible (but pretty unlikely) that he’d bring much more than Granlund for the balance of 2019-20, but who knows?

Harpers Hair

Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.

They have won the season series against the Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.

Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.

Yegfoundation

It seems like it’s been a decade of reading DSF consistently troll some smart folks on this blog.

It’s been an absolute pleasure to witness OP handle DSF with skill and poise regularly.

All is right in the world again.

OriginalPouzar

duct tape and foil:
….and Bonino

Ya, that extra year of term at his overpriced salary makes the trade less than ideal.

Sure, if we could swap Russell for his (big if) but then, the $4M of Russell cap space is spent on a useful but overpriced player – would rather take Russell’s $4M and spend it well.

Rich M

Nashville is in trouble right now. Ellis still not skating thanks to the elbow from (Katy) Perry in the Winter Classic and the defense is struggling mightily (Fabbro playing too high/too soon in the lineup and Weber, Irwin, Hamhuis are done). Plus they’re struggling to adjust to a new system and playing tentative.

Am hearing that Poile has been sitting on trades but after a trip to Washington Weds, then NJ away Thursday followed be Vegas (home) Saturday and a trip Winnipeg next Tues, they could be done and in sell mode very shortly.

duct tape and foil

OriginalPouzar: How do you know what the market is on middling middle 6 wingers on expiring contracts?

I”m guessing its not a high round pick and, as I stated, Gagner’s contract out is not required for the Oilers to consummate that trade today or at the deadline.

Seriously, “foisted Gagner on the Oilers”??????

In exchange for Ryan Spooner who provided a $1M cap hit to the Canucks, this year and next, to play in Europe.

Please don’t feed the troll – his last comment was equal parts idiotic and desperate for attention.

jp

ArmchairGM:
An interesting trade suggestion from a Wild fan:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/301732

That’s basically the JT Miller trade.

godot10

Except Zucker is a couple of years older. In his prime years already, not like Miller just entering them.

duct tape and foil

….and Bonino

OriginalPouzar:
Leafs now up 4-1 on Nashville.

Good for Oilers and the playoffs.

Good for Granlund being sold.

Melvis

Woodguy v2.0:
Too kind sir.

Thank you.

I often think of changing hobbies to something that would be more self-fulfilling…….

“Darcy, its high time you started on the pysanky for Easter”.

“Aww gee whiz…”

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: If you think a low pick and Gagner’s bloated contract is all that it will take to get Sheary, perhaps you should re-examine the market.

Not sure what the Canucks have to do with this but just a reminder that they were the team that foisted Gagner on the Oilers.

How do you know what the market is on middling middle 6 wingers on expiring contracts?

I”m guessing its not a high round pick and, as I stated, Gagner’s contract out is not required for the Oilers to consummate that trade today or at the deadline.

Seriously, “foisted Gagner on the Oilers”??????

In exchange for Ryan Spooner who provided a $1M cap hit to the Canucks, this year and next, to play in Europe.

Harpers Hair

Good grief.

Yeah the Sabres are going to trade an actual NHL player for a 4th round pick AND TAKE ON Gagner’s contract.

I’d imagine there are 29 NHL teams that could beat that offer.

BTW…a $1 million cap hit is less than a $3.5 million cap hit.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: We’re not exactly busting out of the seams with forward talent Leon and Connor have needed help all year. Benson is ready it’s time to see what we have and if taking a 1 or 2 goal scorer out of the line-upis going to disrupt team scoring then we are in some serious trouble. We need 3 or 4 lines going you can’t continue to play Leon and Connor these insane minutes if you expect to make a run in the playoffs.

Yes, they have needed help all year but, since the turn of the calendar, 8 games, they’ve received that help. The team is scoring at league leading rates in 2020 and, yes, they have had 3 lines going.

It won’t continue without blip and the blip is when it makes sense to call up the skill player, not when the team is rolling offensively.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited to see Benson in the NHL and look forward to it – just don’t agree it needs to happen right now given how well the team has been playing and scoring. Its producing with balance.

OriginalPouzar

Dallas gets the win on OT – at least they didn’t get the regulation win.

OriginalPouzar

duct tape and foil:
Anyone got some time for LW Erik Haula? UFA in the summer and might be had for a reasonable amount. Can never have too many Finns? Well maybe except for JP…….

Wouldn’t that subsume the Canes “selling”?

Wouldn’t they want something back that helps their current roster?

OriginalPouzar

I push “watch now” on my GameCenter and, boom, Stamkos ties it up with about 90 seconds left.

Hopefully they can keep Dallas to the single point (but it looks like, at the least, they’ll take away a regulation win – well, still 86 seconds to go).

OriginalPouzar

defmn:
Benson & Bouchard named as 2 of 7 AHL players at the All Star game “poised for imminent NHL call-up’. Nothing in the piece everybody here doesn’t already know but interesting that 2 of 7 are Oilers prospects.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/future-watch-seven-ahl-all-stars-poised-for-an-imminent-nhl-call-up

If by imminent, they mean this season, I posit they will be wrong on Bouchard.

Not that he’s not developing at a rapid pace, he surely is and has taken off in all areas of the game over the last 4-6 weeks, however, I’m confidant Holland wants to:

1) continue that development
2) not bring a 20 year old rookie d-man in to the NHL lineup in the midst of a pressure filled playoff race when the team has a solid 8-9 legit NHL d-men and are healthy (at least for now)
3) not burn a year of his ELC at this stage

Reja

Dustylegnd: nobody said he was going to be a bust, he was drafted where he was drafted because a) local boy b) local boy that broke Tie Ratties Bantam AAA scoring records….he then pretty much spent the next 4 years hurt…..hard to make a good evaluation on a player with limited playing time…thats why we didn’t want Barzal at #15 in 2015 so the story goes

Why draft him where they drafted him????? because Bob saw him great as a 14 year old, and he is from Edmonton. Having said tha,t the Only 2nd round forward to have significantly outscored Benson is De Brincat who seemed like a no brainer fit with McDavid…..

Dube seemed like a good fit with Draisaitl…..Benson may be the better player than Dube…we don’t know….I think he could have been had in the 3rd round as we had #63 #81 and #91 that year its little mistakes like this that are made over and over again that led to decades of Darkness

In hindsight yes they should have drafted Da Brincat but it’s not Benson’s fault. You believe he’s still around at pic 63 I don’t. Since you’ve viewed this player with the Giants and the condors what exactly does he need to do before he gets a call-up. I’m really cheering that this young man’s hard work and skill translates to the NHL level.

OriginalPouzar

TO just about to put the finishing touches on Nashville – great result.

STL up 1-0 on Vancouver early – solid start.

Dal is up 2-1 on Tampa though, about half way through the 2nd.

OriginalPouzar

Dustylegnd: nobody said he was going to be a bust, he was drafted where he was drafted because a) local boy b) local boy that broke Tie Ratties Bantam AAA scoring records….he then pretty much spent the next 4 years hurt…..hard to make a good evaluation on a player with limited playing time…thats why we didn’t want Barzal at #15 in 2015 so the story goes

Why draft him where they drafted him????? because Bob saw him great as a 14 year old, and he is from Edmonton. Having said tha,t the Only 2nd round forward to have significantly outscored Benson is De Brincat who seemed like a no brainer fit with McDavid…..

I think this may be just a bit dishonest and speculative for the narrative, no?

Yes, there was the local factor and, sure, maybe that did indeed play a large or a small role. At the same time, Benson at 32 was far from an off-the-board pick – he was ranked in the top round by many projections.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Like any deadline type trade helps a selling team out of the playoff race.

Sheary is a 30-35 point middle six guy on an expiring contract – to get a mid-round pick for him would be a solid deal. They could take Gagner without worry as his contract expires so no cap implications past this year – that may increase the acquisition cost a tiny but but, at the end of the day, I’m not sure than money out would be required for Sheary.

I understand your most talked about team has failed to smartly make these types of future oriented moves when they should have recently so I understand no understanding.

If you think a low pick and Gagner’s bloated contract is all that it will take to get Sheary, perhaps you should re-examine the market.

Not sure what the Canucks have to do with this but just a reminder that they were the team that foisted Gagner on the Oilers.

Reja

OriginalPouzar: To reiterate, the team has scored 33 goals in the last 8 games and won 6.5 of those 8 games.

The scoring has come from most of the lineup.

The current schedule starts with some very high pressure games and, as of now, scoring goals and balance is not a primary concern.

Its seems the time to call him up will be when the secondary scoring dries up a bit or an injury to a top 9 player occurs – likely won’t be long.

We’re not exactly busting out of the seams with forward talent Leon and Connor have needed help all year. Benson is ready it’s time to see what we have and if taking a 1 or 2 goal scorer out of the line-up is going to disrupt team scoring then we are in some serious trouble. We need 3 or 4 lines going you can’t continue to play Leon and Connor these insane minutes if you expect to make a run in the playoffs.

OriginalPouzar

Leafs now up 4-1 on Nashville.

Good for Oilers and the playoffs.

Good for Granlund being sold.

jm363561

Woodguy v2.0,

Amazing article. Benson suffered serious injury setbacks and has played on an average team so far. If he remains injury free he may be even better than your article suggests.

who

Cassandra:
Mittelstadt has 10 pts in 17 games while sporting a -5.

The shine isn’t there.He has no real track record of putting up offense.Is he better than Tage Thompson?

Plus his profile is as a PP guy, and the Oilers don’t need that.

There are way better players to target.

I also think it is funny that there are people on this board who think that the Oilers should trade Larsson for someone like Ehlers (as if the Jets would ever do that) and there are others who think that would be bad idea for the Oilers (which is shocking).

The Oilers can’t trade Larsson because they aren’t going to get anything good for Larsson.So what is the point?

There is nothing interesting on any of the trade boards.Stay out of it unless you can get rid of Russell or Neal somehow.Call up Benson and Benning, improve from within.

Trade deadline deals are almost always bad value propositions.There is no reason to make these deals.

I agree with staying away from expensive deadline deals.
Always liked Middlestat though. Lot of skill there. Needs a new start, just like JP.

Richard Roma

Cassandra:
For those of you scoring at home Benning is + 7 at 5on5 this year.

Bear is -3.

Larsson is -11 (worst among D)

Last year Benning was +9 (best GF% amongst D)

Larsson was -32 (again worst among the regulars).

You can blame Klefbom or competition or whatever, but that’s a big difference.

I maintain that Benning is better than Larsson.And you guys all love Bear.And Bouchard is coming.

If the Oilers are fielding their best lineup next year Larsson isn’t on it.

Benning is sheltered with 3rd pairing comp / on-the-fly shifts, but we’d already had a glimpse of the Oilers without Larsson.

It wasn’t so bad.

I think Larsson is vastly overrated.

The play nearly always dies on his stick, he can’t outlet the puck, and he has limited speed. I’m too lazy to look, but I’m certain he has a poor penalty differential.

He’s one of those guys you think you need until you don’t and you really don’t… sort of like Russell.

duct tape and foil

Anyone got some time for LW Erik Haula? UFA in the summer and might be had for a reasonable amount. Can never have too many Finns? Well maybe except for JP…….

who

Numenius:
Yes, it would be folly for any reasonable trade. If you can get Ehlers back, though, it would be brilliant.

That would be an asymmetrical trade almost like the Hall trade.

That would be a lot more onesided than the Hall trade. 5 years of Ehlers at 6 million for 1 year of Larrson at 4 million? Who in the hell thinks Winnipeg makes that trade?
I doubt that Klefbom gets you Ehlers

OriginalPouzar

Reja: What exactly is the real reason he’s not being called up. He’s worked his ass off is well liked and might very well give us 4 lines that on any given night can win us the game. If he’s not in Holland’s plans package him up with say someone like Jones for a top sixer forward and let’s not sit and watch the playoffs go Bye-Bye Birdie.

To reiterate, the team has scored 33 goals in the last 8 games and won 6.5 of those 8 games.

The scoring has come from most of the lineup.

The current schedule starts with some very high pressure games and, as of now, scoring goals and balance is not a primary concern.

Its seems the time to call him up will be when the secondary scoring dries up a bit or an injury to a top 9 player occurs – likely won’t be long.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: How does this benefit Buffalo unless it’s a very high pick?

Like any deadline type trade helps a selling team out of the playoff race.

Sheary is a 30-35 point middle six guy on an expiring contract – to get a mid-round pick for him would be a solid deal. They could take Gagner without worry as his contract expires so no cap implications past this year – that may increase the acquisition cost a tiny but but, at the end of the day, I’m not sure than money out would be required for Sheary.

I understand your most talked about team has failed to smartly make these types of future oriented moves when they should have recently so I understand no understanding.

Dustylegnd

Woodguy v2.0: Kinds words sir.Not necessary, but appreciated.

It doesn’t sit well with me that CGY may have an advantage over EDM simply due to parsing data.

The volume of data available to NHL teams is vast (much deeper than public) but I’m also told that most teams don’t do near enough with it that they could.

That doesn’t surprise me.

When I started my business its not like there were not already companies/people filling those needs.

Its always possible to do better than “industry standard”

I don’t know how to make EDM spend some money smartly on this area.I wish I knew.

Its easy to spend money dumbly.

The advantage the Oilers over the flames is super elite forwards, which is the most difficult to asset to attain…. we in theory have a couple of elite D on the ways as well…..if we accept that hockey is a strong link game, second only to basketball, rather than a weak link game like soccer…..we should be able to fill out the bottom 6 with clever analytics…..now we just need to invest more assets in advanced stats…..who in the organization will drive that change….oh we need elite goal tending as well

defmn

Benson & Bouchard named as 2 of 7 AHL players at the All Star game “poised for imminent NHL call-up’. Nothing in the piece everybody here doesn’t already know but interesting that 2 of 7 are Oilers prospects.

https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/future-watch-seven-ahl-all-stars-poised-for-an-imminent-nhl-call-up

OriginalPouzar

Leafs up 2-1 on NSH after 1.

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– A significant trade where an established roster player(s) are traded for “better” ones won’t happen

– A significant trade where we get a good player(s) for draft picks and/or prospects won’t happen

– Part of this is because we are a playoff team now, and Holland won’t rock the boat

– Part of this is because there are many teams that are close, so the risk of doing something “big”, doesn’t ensurethat anything other than luck will determine playoffs

– Part of this is because the team probably feels pretty good about their chances, and more turmoil at deadline might be hard to take

– So let’s bring back Hockey please: I’ll eat my hat if anything other than minor move happen.

– I predict a Maroon type deal: a plug and a 4rth for a guy who ended up being fire for awhile with McD: A deal that wasn’t much butwith hindsight ended up huge.

– I think Holland would be compelled to try and get a “spark” but not upset the cart IMO

The fist statement is likely true because not many “hockey trades” happen at this time of year – the cap implications hinder that ability to consummate.

The next few sentences don’t really jive together with Ken’s stated strategy depending on the interpretation of the word “significant”.

A few of the reasons you state for him not making such a trade are the exact reasons he has stated he may in fact be a buyer – he has stated that he will look to buy (so prospects/picks out for player(s) in) if the team is looking like a playoff team and feeling/looking good. He has been express that, if that is the case, he feels like he owes the team a boost.

Now, of course, we can be quite certain that the 1st rounder, Bouchard, etc. are not on the table for any rental and would only be moved in a “hockey trade” that is unlikely. At the same time, if the team is playing well and in the thick of things it seems likely he’ll make a move for secondary/tertiary type player.

I agree it will be somewhat of a depth trade (or two) but that could be “signifigant” – Granlund for example could cost the 2nd and a prospects – that would be significant and a deal I could see him make.

VanIsleOil

I really like the way Archibald injects a lot of energy when he’s on the ice. He probably gets a lot of his piss and vinegar from his Dad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgr6p8L4emY&feature=youtu.be

Woodguy v2.0

Dustylegnd: A coupleof side notes here, Chris Snow their AGM in charge of advanced stats has ALS, he is on an experimental drug that has for now, made a big difference in his fight with a very particular type of ALS….many in his family have perished with this awful disease

Eric Francis a horrifically bad journalist here in Calgary wrote an article speculating that Dube would most likely be sent back to the minors as Bennet et el regained their health, Dube was told to get an apartment last week and has seen the last of the AHL….

This is the difference between well informed opinions like Woodguy who uses facts and data to form opinions and pompous goofs Like Francis…he is Calgarys Spec without the charming personality

Kinds words sir. Not necessary, but appreciated.

It doesn’t sit well with me that CGY may have an advantage over EDM simply due to parsing data.

The volume of data available to NHL teams is vast (much deeper than public) but I’m also told that most teams don’t do near enough with it that they could.

That doesn’t surprise me.

When I started my business its not like there were not already companies/people filling those needs.

Its always possible to do better than “industry standard”

I don’t know how to make EDM spend some money smartly on this area. I wish I knew.

Its easy to spend money dumbly.

Woodguy v2.0

Dustylegnd: All good, I appreciate that you have easy access to the truly advanced stats data base and I prefer not trying to re-invent a less efficient wheel, good info provided on your part….these are the type of players every team needs on their 3rd line

What I show here aren’t “advanced stats” imo.

Its stuff we get from shot and goal volume.

Its tells a lot, but not near what a handful off teams can figure out.

defmn

Woodguy v2.0:
Bank Shot,

Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

What a player uses to create his value doesn’t matter nearly as much as “he creates value”

Sometimes its plus skating, some times its plus puck skills, sometimes its plus thinking.

The players that can combine two or more of those attributes usually aren’t argued about because they’re so good.

There are no pictures on the game sheet.

Also,

Benson was pretty banged up until his 20 year old AHL year.His back thing was crazy.

That said:

Dube’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 1.05
Benson’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 0.97

That’s pretty close.

Digging deeper:

Dube has less PP pts/gm than Benson and that’s a good thing:

Dube 20 year old PP pt/gm 0.27
Benson 20 year old PP pts/gm 0.35

Non PP pts/gm:
Dube’s AHL 20 year old0.74 pts/gm
Benson’s AHL 20 year old 0.62/gm

So Dube projects as a slightly better 5v5 pts/gm guy, but the variables in these results are pretty wide.

What I discovered with Gmoney was the the vast majority of NHLers are “middling” players.

They are among the best in the world, but among NHLers they’re “good”

When you play “Gritensity” players with Elite players it drags theirs results down so bad that we don’t actually account for those minutes as “Elites” minutes, but “Middle”.Who a player plays with a big goddamn deal.

I don’t think Benson will be the “answer” to anything, but he brings more offense than pretty much everyone on the roster.

He could be a “middle’ that doesn’t drag down a player otherwise playing with a Gritensity player and that makes a big difference.

Especially when they can’t expect to make much more than $1M/yr over the next few years.

These are the cap efficiencies that a team needs to capitalize on while they have them.

Great post. Thank you.

dessert1111

I’m fine that Benson hasn’t been brought up yet but I think the play is to call him up within the next couple of weeks to give him a test drive before the deadline. If he looks good, you can focus pretty much entirely on bringing in an upgrade on 3C, which should be doable for something a little less than a second round pick.

That would be the ideal deadline for this team, IMO: a small add or two to balance the roster without giving up any valuable futures.

Dustylegnd

Reja: How do you know Benson’s a bust without given him a opportunity especiallywith the numbers he’s shown in the AHL. It’s not Benson’s fault they screwed the pooch on Reinhart.

nobody said he was going to be a bust, he was drafted where he was drafted because a) local boy b) local boy that broke Tie Ratties Bantam AAA scoring records….he then pretty much spent the next 4 years hurt…..hard to make a good evaluation on a player with limited playing time…thats why we didn’t want Barzal at #15 in 2015 so the story goes

Why draft him where they drafted him????? because Bob saw him great as a 14 year old, and he is from Edmonton. Having said tha,t the Only 2nd round forward to have significantly outscored Benson is De Brincat who seemed like a no brainer fit with McDavid…..

Dube seemed like a good fit with Draisaitl…..Benson may be the better player than Dube…we don’t know….I think he could have been had in the 3rd round as we had #63 #81 and #91 that year its little mistakes like this that are made over and over again that led to decades of Darkness

JimmyV1965

Woodguy v2.0:
Bank Shot,

Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

What a player uses to create his value doesn’t matter nearly as much as “he creates value”

Sometimes its plus skating, some times its plus puck skills, sometimes its plus thinking.

The players that can combine two or more of those attributes usually aren’t argued about because they’re so good.

There are no pictures on the game sheet.

Also,

Benson was pretty banged up until his 20 year old AHL year.His back thing was crazy.

That said:

Dube’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 1.05
Benson’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 0.97

That’s pretty close.

Digging deeper:

Dube has less PP pts/gm than Benson and that’s a good thing:

Dube 20 year old PP pt/gm 0.27
Benson 20 year old PP pts/gm 0.35

Non PP pts/gm:
Dube’s AHL 20 year old0.74 pts/gm
Benson’s AHL 20 year old 0.62/gm

So Dube projects as a slightly better 5v5 pts/gm guy, but the variables in these results are pretty wide.

What I discovered with Gmoney was the the vast majority of NHLers are “middling” players.

They are among the best in the world, but among NHLers they’re “good”

When you play “Gritensity” players with Elite players it drags theirs results down so bad that we don’t actually account for those minutes as “Elites” minutes, but “Middle”.Who a player plays with a big goddamn deal.

I don’t think Benson will be the “answer” to anything, but he brings more offense than pretty much everyone on the roster.

He could be a “middle’ that doesn’t drag down a player otherwise playing with a Gritensity player and that makes a big difference.

Especially when they can’t expect to make much more than $1M/yr over the next few years.

These are the cap efficiencies that a team needs to capitalize on while they have them.

Very good post

Scungilli Slushy

Woodguy v2.0:
Bank Shot,

Dube has plus skating though. He’s created separation from Benson going back to 19 years junior season.

What a player uses to create his value doesn’t matter nearly as much as “he creates value”

Sometimes its plus skating, some times its plus puck skills, sometimes its plus thinking.

The players that can combine two or more of those attributes usually aren’t argued about because they’re so good.

There are no pictures on the game sheet.

Also,

Benson was pretty banged up until his 20 year old AHL year.His back thing was crazy.

That said:

Dube’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 1.05
Benson’s AHL 20 year old pts/gm 0.97

That’s pretty close.

Digging deeper:

Dube has less PP pts/gm than Benson and that’s a good thing:

Dube 20 year old PP pt/gm 0.27
Benson 20 year old PP pts/gm 0.35

Non PP pts/gm:
Dube’s AHL 20 year old0.74 pts/gm
Benson’s AHL 20 year old 0.62/gm

So Dube projects as a slightly better 5v5 pts/gm guy, but the variables in these results are pretty wide.

What I discovered with Gmoney was the the vast majority of NHLers are “middling” players.

They are among the best in the world, but among NHLers they’re “good”

When you play “Gritensity” players with Elite players it drags theirs results down so bad that we don’t actually account for those minutes as “Elites” minutes, but “Middle”.Who a player plays with a big goddamn deal.

I don’t think Benson will be the “answer” to anything, but he brings more offense than pretty much everyone on the roster.

He could be a “middle’ that doesn’t drag down a player otherwise playing with a Gritensity player and that makes a big difference.

Especially when they can’t expect to make much more than $1M/yr over the next few years.

These are the cap efficiencies that a team needs to capitalize on while they have them.

Many thanks to you and GM for your passion. I have often commented the same about most players being middling, not able to dominate without help, and that comes from the years of reading your insights and the many we in public don’t get to read anymore.

Woodguy v2.0

Too kind sir.

Thank you.

I often think of changing hobbies to something that would be more self-fulfilling…….

Dustylegnd

Woodguy v2.0:
This is an interesting piece on CGY and their use of analytics:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/flames-gm-brad-treliving-discusses-team-uses-analytics/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Good info for “players’ impact on games go far beyond points”

A couple of side notes here, Chris Snow their AGM in charge of advanced stats has ALS, he is on an experimental drug that has for now, made a big difference in his fight with a very particular type of ALS….many in his family have perished with this awful disease

Eric Francis a horrifically bad journalist here in Calgary wrote an article speculating that Dube would most likely be sent back to the minors as Bennet et el regained their health, Dube was told to get an apartment last week and has seen the last of the AHL….

This is the difference between well informed opinions like Woodguy who uses facts and data to form opinions and pompous goofs Like Francis…he is Calgarys Spec without the charming personality

Scungilli Slushy

Material Elvis: JP comes with a lot of baggage.The list of teams interested in paying decent value for his services would be limited.They likely end up dumping him for a draft pick.

At least the GM is showing that he values JP, which as a negotiator is absolutely key, and for the org is a sea change of big time beaucoup proportions.