2019-20 Game 55: Predators at Oilers

by Lowetide

I’ve been thinking about the Oilers from the early part of this century lately, the Lowe-MacT group from 2000-06. I know it’s impossible to use the space-time continuum in order to bring 2005-06 Shawn Horcoff, Chris Pronger, Ales Hemsky, Radek Dvorak, Ryan Smyth and Dwayne Roloson. Wouldn’t it be nice?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Mitch Brown: The Video Room: How Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto overcomes his small stature to make dynamic plays
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Emotionless’ Oilers fail yet again to match passion from a week ago
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade suggestions: 50 proposals from readers, with our verdict
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
  • Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 55 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 21-29-5, 47 points; goal differential -29
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 29-18-8, 66 points; goal differential +11
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 23-28-4, 50 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 24-26-5, 53 points; goal differential -20
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 28-20-6, 62 points; goal differential +2

Edmonton is facing a strong Nashville Predators team tonight, as well as the out of town scoreboard. I love these races, and remain hopeful the Oilers will be buyers at the deadline. Massive game tonight.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Current 10 games: 2-2-0

Arizona is in Boston, Oilers hosting Preds, Calgary plays Vancouver and Vegas takes on Carolina. If the Oilers win, while the other three lose, the city of Edmonton parties until dawn.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -15
  • Oilers in February 2017: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in February 2018: 1-2-1, three points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in February 2019: 1-1-2, four points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2020: 1-2-0, two points; goal differential 0

Have a look at the goal differentials here. These are some monumental slides, even minus seven over four games is a big deal. Minus 15 in four games? Holy crap!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-2-0, two points in three games

If the Oilers win tonight, the team will be close to on track with my predicted result. I think the team needs to win the next two games, because that road trip will be no fun. Then again the Oilers are strong against the good clubs, so who knows?

OILERS 2019-20

Horcoff was an instant favourite of mine, and as it has been since Keon and Sanderson I watch for the next brilliant two-way centre to come along. Patrice Bergeron is the modern gold standard, he’s been good forever. The Nuge is in this category, Edmonton could use a fourth-rounder like Horcoff to slide on to the third line about now. I held out some hope for Aapeli Rasanen (solid two-way resume) but they moved him to right wing this winter at Boston College. So, it’s Ryan McLeod and he’s not ready.

Speaking of prospects, there are three men who made my top-20 winter prospects list in December who will graduate by June. Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and Kailer Yamamoto are all NHL players now, or will be before the end of the season. So those days of having a Horcoff or Pisani emerge from a late round to fill a valuable role are back, it’s just that there are no pivots at this time.

The centers on my top 20 mostly stayed behind, or moved to RW like Rasanen. Cooper Marody is a distant bell, or so it seems, due to injury.

2007-08 lines and performance

Dustin Penner-Shawn Horcoff-Ales Hemsky played 309 minutes together, going 53.4 Corsi, 54.79 shot differential (all numbers five on five), 20-11 goals (64.52 percent), 53.21 expected goals.

Andrew Cogliano-Sam Gagner-Robert Nilsson played 247 minutes together, going 48.72 Corsi, 49.21 shot differential, 15-13 goals (53.57 percent), 53.73 expected goals.

I think sometimes we look back on the past and discount entire seasons, and in some cases, careers. It’s important to note that men like Horcoff were strong performers under a coach like Craig MacTavish. The lack of player quality in support impacted men like Horcoff and (along with age and the inevitable erosion of skills) their overall performance.

2009-10 lines and performance

Ethan Moreau-Shawn Horcoff-Fernando Pisani played 227 minutes, going 39.53 Corsi, 39.81 shot differential, 6-12 (33 percent) goals and 38.04 percent expected goals.

J-F Jacques-Shawn Horcoff-Patrick O’Sullivan played 92 minutes together, going 41.22 Corsi, 42.25 shot differential, 2-9 goals (18.18 percent) and 36.43 expected goals.

Just a couple of years later, the quality of the roster is so poor that Horcoff and two veterans can’t reach 40 percent. It’s even worse in a mentor role, as the possession and expected goals remain the same, but the actual goal differential caves in from all sides. I well remember folks hammering Horcoff really good (while also getting his cap hit wrong) in these years, but context is important.

2016-17 lines and performance

Patrick Maroon-Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl played 543 minutes, going 52.64 Corsi, 54.16 shot differential, 32-21 goals (60.38 percent) and 57.07 expected goals.

Patrick Maroon-Connor McDavid-Jordan Eberle played 139 minutes, going 55.36 Corsi, 53.42 shot differential and 9-5 goals (64.29 percent) with an expected goals percentage of 60.62.

Back in 2016-17, the playoff year, the Oilers had enough skill on the roster to allow sustain through all kinds of weather with 97. That’s important, because you want your No. 1 line to prosper while also trying to find chem for the No. 2 line.

2019-20 lines and performance

Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 441 minutes together, going 47.87 Corsi, 46.20 shot differential, 28-25 (52.83 percent) goals and 47.70 expected goals.

James Neal-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 89 minutes together, going 52.53 Corsi, 55.67 shot differential, 4-5 goals (44.44) and 61.03 expected goals.

I would argue that the Oilers need to reset the wingers on McDavid’s line. If you’re running below 50 percent in expected goals and or Corsi with 97 on a line, pull the chute.

The question then becomes what kind of a winger do you want McDavid to play with? Skill for sure, but I think more of a shooter, an Eberle or a Neal with speed. Mike Hoffman might be perfect. Hoffman-McDavid-Kassian? Hoffman-McDavid-Neal? Nuge-McDavid-Hoffman? You know, it might be Hoffman-McDavid-Yamamoto.

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Admiral Ackbar

Pescador, you are my hero! Thank you.

That DSF would be a Fox News regular doesn’t surprise me in the least.

Harpers Hair: Whatever Pal…you’ve obviously mistaken me for someone who cares what you think.

Maybe take yourbiases and puerile politics and stick them somewhere.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Bulging Twine:
Slepyshev with a 13 game point scoring streak

One shy of Radulov’s record!

Always been a fan of Slepy,
I thought there was a bottom 6’er in there somewhere,
Sort of like a non-fighting Russian version of JJ

jp

Bulging Twine:
Slepyshev with a 13 game point scoring streak

One shy of Radulov’s record!

Yeah wow. I could see him returning to Edmonton if he’s willing. Not sure on his KHL contract.

jp

Bulging Twine:
It’s from a Senior named Katherina Whu (spelling?).Her study is building on NHLe.It starts at about the 2h 40min mark.

Basically her finding was that her pts/game model from Puljujarvi’s SMLiiga and Dubois QMJHL showed that Dubois would be the superior point getter in the NHL

You could build that model but then it would miss Laine and Aho.

Not that her model might not be an improvement overall – I should watch the clip. I just think Puljujarvi is an anomaly in so many ways.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

BONE207,

Really this comment stayed up all night and nobody challenged it?

N64

“Why, man, Brogan doth bestride the narrow world
Like a Colossus, and we petty men
Walk under his huge legs and peep about
To find ourselves dishonorable graves

N64

BONE207:
I’m packing up the RV as we speak & heading to the mountains. With asteroids flying around, BC sliding into to sea & monsters roaming the earth,I want to see it all from a high vantage point.

Higher ground would have been perfect for that game. Specifically on a neutral ice rink built on the Rogers Pass snow sheds. With a round of howitzers fired up onto the slopes to celebrate the first goal.

OriginalPouzar

Roman Josi is a massive rover out there – may be the best d-man in the league I would say.

rickithebear

Watched condensed gm.
Concern for Mcdavid knee again.

Mcdavid since Gio hit:
5 1/2gm 2 evg 0 Eva, 1ppg, 2 PPA
The even count makes me wonder!

hunter1909

Calgary beating Vancouver helps Oilers to reach for 1st in the Pacific lol

Meanwhile statistically Calgary’s chances of overtaking the Oilers were reduced since Oilers also won

Bulging Twine

Slepyshev with a 13 game point scoring streak

One shy of Radulov’s record!

Bulging Twine

jtblack: Damn, that would be awesome to attend!

The CBJHAC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TENd93QJt-8&feature=youtu.be

Someone on twitter mentioned a slide entitled, “which player would you select” and it’s Puljujarvi and Dubois.

Bulging Twine

It’s from a Senior named Katherina Whu (spelling?). Her study is building on NHLe. It starts at about the 2h 40min mark.

Basically her finding was that her pts/game model from Puljujarvi’s SMLiiga and Dubois QMJHL showed that Dubois would be the superior point getter in the NHL

JimmyV1965

godot10:
Kassian gets back on Connor’s line to start the game, and last a handful of shifts before his blunder and absence of compete (which was responsible for the 1st goal against) promptly puts him back on the 4th line mostly diddling on the bench.

Pettedson needs protection.Can we trade him for Brogan Rafferty?

The ink isn’t dry yeti.

You’re like a dog on a bone. Kassian did not start the game on McDavid’s line. And he didn’t make any spectacular gaffe on the first goal. Yes, I know you’re going to pound on the drum that he wasn’t covering someone on the play or something else. Shocker. Kassian is bad enough on his own. There’s no need to invent stuff. Kassian derangement syndrome.

Bulging Twine

Larry Fisher of FC Hockey’s Draft Rankings from Feb 1:

https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-draft-rankings-february-fisher/

Since then he’s had a couple of live viewings of Seth Jarvis and says that he’s probably moved into the 20’s on his list

Oilerguy

Pescador,

Not sure I’ve ever seen a reaction like that from DSF/HH in the 15yrs I’ve read his garbage! Was good to see. Lol

godot10

Kassian gets back on Connor’s line to start the game, and last a handful of shifts before his blunder and absence of compete (which was responsible for the 1st goal against) promptly puts him back on the 4th line mostly diddling on the bench.

Pettedson needs protection. Can we trade him for Brogan Rafferty?

The ink isn’t dry yeti.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Harpers Hair: Whatever Pal…you’ve obviously mistaken me for someone who cares what you think.

Maybe take yourbiases and puerile politics and stick them somewhere.

Yes!!!
I am the people’s champion
https://youtu.be/6ZCO40Zwt00

Harpers Hair

jp: Sphincters throughout the league have been tight for some time and will remain that way.

Glad the standings movement tonight didn’t play out that way.

I’ve never seen things so close at this point in the season.
3 points between first in the Pacific or out of the playoffs.
Wow !

jp

Yeah it’s something else.

Ice Sage

Harpers Hair: Whatever Pal…you’ve obviously mistaken me for someone who cares what you think.

Maybe take yourbiases and puerile politics and stick them somewhere.

Translation: Canucks shit the bed

jp

Harpers Hair: WPG moves into the first WC spot as sphincters tight en in the Pacific.

It’s possible for both WPG and NSH to hold down a wildcard spot after tonight with the Oilers only one point ahead.

Sphincters throughout the league have been tight for some time and will remain that way.

Glad the standings tonight didn’t play out that way.

Oilers to 1st in the Pacific by Pts% for now.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Bag of Pucks:
Giving McDavid Chagner as linemates is like marrying Charlize Theron and dressing her in sackcloth.

This probably wins the mitt

Abbeef

Came for Oilers talk… left 3 minutes later because it’s HH and Canucks talk…

Harpers Hair

Pescador: You listen to the talking muppets between periods?
Interesting
When Kelly Hrudey talks, you nod your head in agreement don’t you?
Him & Bill O’Reilly

Whatever Pal…you’ve obviously mistaken me for someone who cares what you think.

Maybe take your biases and puerile politics and stick them somewhere.

Foege Foegele Torpe

Harpers Hair: Interesting .

The between period panel on HNIC focused on how the Flames have been targeting Petterssons bruised knee all game.

Sound familiar?

You listen to the talking muppets between periods?
Interesting
When Kelly Hrudey talks, you nod your head in agreement don’t you?
Him & Bill O’Reilly

Ice Sage

Victoria Oil: Petersson gets abused all game and then gets called for a penalty. Lucic scores on the PP.

Sounds familiar!

Victoria Oil

Harpers Hair: Interesting .

The between period panel on HNIC focused on how the Flames have been targeting Petterssons bruised knee all game.

Sound familiar?

Petersson gets abused all game and then gets called for a penalty. Lucic scores on the PP.

JimmyV1965

Lucic scores on the PP. LOL. He lost possession on the PP twice, yet he scores the goal. Hockey is a funny game.

Harpers Hair

Pescador: You’re correct, just like Petterson’s alien head.
For what it’s worth McDavid’s knee is always a target for Giordano

Interesting .

The between period panel on HNIC focused on how the Flames have been targeting Petterssons bruised knee all game.

Sound familiar?

Dicky94

JimmyV1965,

Miles Wood!

Foege Foegele Torpe

Harpers Hair: You know Connors knee will be a target for the rest of the season, right.

You’re correct, just like Petterson’s alien head.
For what it’s worth McDavid’s knee is always a target for Giordano

JimmyV1965

Harpers Hair: First round pick?

I have zero issue giving up a first round pick for the right player. I would be dancing in the street if we traded Broberg for Miller. Of course the Canucks would never do that, but you get my drift.

McDavid doesn’t even need someone that good. Get him a winger who can skate even reasonably well, is defensively responsible and can score 15 with a decent centre and we’re cooking with gas.

Harpers Hair

flyfish1168:
As per Kelly Hrudey and company. Connor not made available post game. He was getting ice treatment and has bruised knee

You know Connors knee will be a target for the rest of the season, right.

Wilde

Bakersfield Condors vs. Tucson Roadrunners; February 5th, 2020; deployment

Gambardella-Granlund-Currie
Esposito-Cave-Maksimov
McLeod-Malone-Hebig
Stukel-x-Koules

Lowe-Bouchard
Manning-Persson
Kulevich/Samorukov-Day
Persson/Day-Bouchard
Lowe-Kulevich

after 20

12CF-10CA
7FF-5FA
2GF-0GA

Top F: Malone (1.43 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 1 shot assist
1 goal, 1 penalty drawn
7CF-0CA
4FF-0FA
1GF-0GA

Top D: Day (1.36 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 1 shot assist
1 goal
6CF-2CA
4FF-2FA
2GF-0GA

after 40

27CF-29CA
15FF-14FA
3GF-1GA

Top F: Malone (1.38 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
1 goal, 1 penalty drawn
12CF-7CA
8FF-3FA
1GF-0GA

Top D: Day (1.26 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
1 goal
9CF-8CA
6FF-3FA
2GF-0GA

game totals

35CF-43CA
20FF-22FA
3GF-1GA

Top F: Malone (1.23 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
1 goal, 1 penalty drawn
12CF-10CA
8FF-6FA
1GF-0GA

Top D: Day (1.21 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
1 goal
11CF-11CA
7FF-6FA
2GF-0GA

hunter1909

CP salty after tonight’s Oilers W. Fun reading.

Crazy Pedestrian

But… why would I be salty after a well earned win?

{Opens salted-caramel tub of ice cream, and reads the enraged Calgary fan posts in Calgary Puck for enjoyment}

flyfish1168

As per Kelly Hrudey and company. Connor not made available post game. He was getting ice treatment and has bruised knee

Reja

Hrudey showing his true colours smirking about Connors knee.

Reja

I wonder what the over under on Kanuck players flopping is set at has to be at least 9.The flopping won’t work when the big boy hockey starts in April.

Boil-in-the-Oil

I was worried for the first 2 periods, we didn’t seem to be playing with much passion or desperation. But that 3rd period was a beauty! Nice to see the reffing slide to our side for a change.

Super concerned about Connor, hope he’s ok. He took another nasty fall, collided with the boards awkwardly, and didn’t look 100% at the end there. Fingers crossed.

GO OILERS!

JOFA

I am extremely concerned about McDavid”s knee.

N64

Edmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
·
28m
Bruised knee, “nothing serious” for McDavid, according to #Oilers bench boss Dave Tippett. The captain received ice treatment between periods & post-game as well.

FWIW

flyfish1168

SK Oiler Fan:
flyfish1168,

No save dave

I like

oilsnc79

Aww
Side,

Is that John rafferties brother, waiting to take over the music world?

SK Oiler Fan

flyfish1168,

No save dave

N64

Anyone know if Holtby’s October no saves on first 3 shots is an NHL record?

Side

Flames are treading lightly.

They know Borgan R. is watching.

flyfish1168

Big sieve Dave starting the game in a good way

Derek

I guess they’re ok.

BONE207

Well, they did need a kickstarter from Nashville. The reffing helped in the 3rd.

drglen

we win… barely, but we win. We can thank Leon for this one.

Bag of Pucks
tcho

I never had any doubts.

jp

That is a big win!

BONE207

I’m packing up the RV as we speak & heading to the mountains. With asteroids flying around, BC sliding into to sea & monsters roaming the earth, I want to see it all from a high vantage point.

N64

That and the Phlegms-Dys game.

BONE207

Oh right…I’ll leave in the morning

Klima's_Bucket

Why in the Fuck is Jujhar out there ?

BONE207

Diversification requirement on hockey day in Canada