2019-20 Game 55: Predators at Oilers

by Lowetide

I’ve been thinking about the Oilers from the early part of this century lately, the Lowe-MacT group from 2000-06. I know it’s impossible to use the space-time continuum in order to bring 2005-06 Shawn Horcoff, Chris Pronger, Ales Hemsky, Radek Dvorak, Ryan Smyth and Dwayne Roloson. Wouldn’t it be nice?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Mitch Brown: The Video Room: How Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto overcomes his small stature to make dynamic plays
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Emotionless’ Oilers fail yet again to match passion from a week ago
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade suggestions: 50 proposals from readers, with our verdict
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
  • Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 55 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 21-29-5, 47 points; goal differential -29
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 29-18-8, 66 points; goal differential +11
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 23-28-4, 50 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 24-26-5, 53 points; goal differential -20
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 28-20-6, 62 points; goal differential +2

Edmonton is facing a strong Nashville Predators team tonight, as well as the out of town scoreboard. I love these races, and remain hopeful the Oilers will be buyers at the deadline. Massive game tonight.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Current 10 games: 2-2-0

Arizona is in Boston, Oilers hosting Preds, Calgary plays Vancouver and Vegas takes on Carolina. If the Oilers win, while the other three lose, the city of Edmonton parties until dawn.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -15
  • Oilers in February 2017: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in February 2018: 1-2-1, three points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in February 2019: 1-1-2, four points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2020: 1-2-0, two points; goal differential 0

Have a look at the goal differentials here. These are some monumental slides, even minus seven over four games is a big deal. Minus 15 in four games? Holy crap!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-2-0, two points in three games

If the Oilers win tonight, the team will be close to on track with my predicted result. I think the team needs to win the next two games, because that road trip will be no fun. Then again the Oilers are strong against the good clubs, so who knows?

OILERS 2019-20

Horcoff was an instant favourite of mine, and as it has been since Keon and Sanderson I watch for the next brilliant two-way centre to come along. Patrice Bergeron is the modern gold standard, he’s been good forever. The Nuge is in this category, Edmonton could use a fourth-rounder like Horcoff to slide on to the third line about now. I held out some hope for Aapeli Rasanen (solid two-way resume) but they moved him to right wing this winter at Boston College. So, it’s Ryan McLeod and he’s not ready.

Speaking of prospects, there are three men who made my top-20 winter prospects list in December who will graduate by June. Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and Kailer Yamamoto are all NHL players now, or will be before the end of the season. So those days of having a Horcoff or Pisani emerge from a late round to fill a valuable role are back, it’s just that there are no pivots at this time.

The centers on my top 20 mostly stayed behind, or moved to RW like Rasanen. Cooper Marody is a distant bell, or so it seems, due to injury.

2007-08 lines and performance

Dustin Penner-Shawn Horcoff-Ales Hemsky played 309 minutes together, going 53.4 Corsi, 54.79 shot differential (all numbers five on five), 20-11 goals (64.52 percent), 53.21 expected goals.

Andrew Cogliano-Sam Gagner-Robert Nilsson played 247 minutes together, going 48.72 Corsi, 49.21 shot differential, 15-13 goals (53.57 percent), 53.73 expected goals.

I think sometimes we look back on the past and discount entire seasons, and in some cases, careers. It’s important to note that men like Horcoff were strong performers under a coach like Craig MacTavish. The lack of player quality in support impacted men like Horcoff and (along with age and the inevitable erosion of skills) their overall performance.

2009-10 lines and performance

Ethan Moreau-Shawn Horcoff-Fernando Pisani played 227 minutes, going 39.53 Corsi, 39.81 shot differential, 6-12 (33 percent) goals and 38.04 percent expected goals.

J-F Jacques-Shawn Horcoff-Patrick O’Sullivan played 92 minutes together, going 41.22 Corsi, 42.25 shot differential, 2-9 goals (18.18 percent) and 36.43 expected goals.

Just a couple of years later, the quality of the roster is so poor that Horcoff and two veterans can’t reach 40 percent. It’s even worse in a mentor role, as the possession and expected goals remain the same, but the actual goal differential caves in from all sides. I well remember folks hammering Horcoff really good (while also getting his cap hit wrong) in these years, but context is important.

2016-17 lines and performance

Patrick Maroon-Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl played 543 minutes, going 52.64 Corsi, 54.16 shot differential, 32-21 goals (60.38 percent) and 57.07 expected goals.

Patrick Maroon-Connor McDavid-Jordan Eberle played 139 minutes, going 55.36 Corsi, 53.42 shot differential and 9-5 goals (64.29 percent) with an expected goals percentage of 60.62.

Back in 2016-17, the playoff year, the Oilers had enough skill on the roster to allow sustain through all kinds of weather with 97. That’s important, because you want your No. 1 line to prosper while also trying to find chem for the No. 2 line.

2019-20 lines and performance

Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 441 minutes together, going 47.87 Corsi, 46.20 shot differential, 28-25 (52.83 percent) goals and 47.70 expected goals.

James Neal-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 89 minutes together, going 52.53 Corsi, 55.67 shot differential, 4-5 goals (44.44) and 61.03 expected goals.

I would argue that the Oilers need to reset the wingers on McDavid’s line. If you’re running below 50 percent in expected goals and or Corsi with 97 on a line, pull the chute.

The question then becomes what kind of a winger do you want McDavid to play with? Skill for sure, but I think more of a shooter, an Eberle or a Neal with speed. Mike Hoffman might be perfect. Hoffman-McDavid-Kassian? Hoffman-McDavid-Neal? Nuge-McDavid-Hoffman? You know, it might be Hoffman-McDavid-Yamamoto.

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OriginalPouzar

Should be able to watch at least a couple of periods of this one and am looking forward to seeing the boys get their postive momentum back after a couple of lackluster performances.

Woodguy v2.0

WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Central
STL 17
COL 14
DAL 11

Mediocrity
VAN 10
EDM 8
VGP 7

Wildcard
NSH 6
ARI 5

Out of playoffs
CGY 5
MIN 4
CHI 4
WPG 4
SJS -3
ANA -4
LAK -12

-This conference is so shitty you can’t say SJS or ANA are out of it yet.

Relevant games tonight:

NSH (-110) at EDM (-110) – Coin flip. EDM has fallen off, NSH is winding up. EDM usually plays well after a “good Tippett practice” and they had one yesterday. He stopped halfway through and had strong words for them. I expect EDM to be ready but NSH is decent.

OTT (+155) at WPG (-175) – I think OTT has a unit of value here.

ARI (+190) at BOS (-230) – ARI in deep here. Line is probably right if not a bit of value on BOS.

CGY (+115) at VAN (-135) – No OT please. I like VAN here, but its the first game back after a roadie, but no Gio = cry.

CAR (+115) at VGP (-135) – Pysankas beat CAR in their own building last week, probably do the same at home this week.

Woodguy v2.0

EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Metropolitan
WSH 23
PIT 18
NYI 16

Atlantic
BOS 23
TBY 19
FLA 11

Wildcard
CBJ 14
CAR 11

Out of playoffs
PHI 11
TOR 10
NYR 3
MTL 3
BUF 1
NJD -5
OTT -7
DET -26

-*almost* cashed on my 1 unit on ANA. TOR has no goalering.

Relevant wildcard games tonight:

COL (-145) at CBJ (+125) – maybe its because they played last night but bookies giving no love Jack Adams. CBJ worth a unit or two here.

NYI (+180) at TBY (-220) – this is relevant because Jack Adam has his team right on NYI’s tail for 3rd in the Metro. No value in this line.

PHI (+160) at WSH (-180) – PHI is not good away from home. No value here but for some reason I’m compelled to put a unit on PHI.

PIT (-120) at FLA (+100) – Marino now done for the year with a broken cheekbone. Crazy. Still like PIT here, FLA has no rickibox protection and needs Adam Larsson.

TOR (-130) at MTL (+110) – Hockey Day in Canada headliner. MTL has value because TOR has no goalering.

CAR (+115) at VGP (-135) – Pysankas beat CAR in their own building last week, probably do the same at home this week.

Woodguy v2.0

Going to the game with Hbomb this afternoon.

Alex Thomas might drop by Hbomb’s for some prelims.

There will be whiskey.

GOILERS!!!

*clapclap*

stephen sheps

I thought HBomb was more of an insane cocktail maker than a whisky guy. Either way, that spare liver you have on ice should come in handy…

GCW_69

“I would argue that the Oilers need to reset the wingers on McDavid’s line. If you’re running below 50 percent in expected goals and or Corsi with 97 on a line, pull the chute. ”

The Oilers answer is to extend the winger for 4 years at over $3M per. You know, cause they can’t tell the difference between being carried on McDavid’s back vs contributing.

Hoffman is certainly someone the Oilers should be looking at if the price isn’t too crazy.

If Florida holds on, probably reach out in late June. Just not sure someone who has had a run of Florida anonymity, taxes, and weather picks Edmonton.

A run at Kase makes some sense. He’s having a down year but playing with McDavid or Leon can turn that kind of thing around.

Woodguy v2.0

Was digging into some GF% black holes on EDM.

Check this out:

There are two GF% black holes on the Oilers.

Khaira and Larsson.

Last two seasons 5v5 GF%:

Larsson and Khaira together (335 min) (8-21) 27.6%
Larsson without Khaira (1757 min) (50-81) 38.2%
Khaira without Larsson (823 min) (24-42) 36.4%
Neither On (3737 min) (172-158) 52.1%

To make it more clear:

5v5 GF%
One or both Larsson and Khaira on the ice (2915 min) (82-144) 36.3%
Neither On (3737 min) (172-158) 52.1%

Total (6652 min) (254-302) 45.7%

That`s incredible.

Also,

You may think Klef is hurting Larsson’s results, but it looks like that’s a one way street:

Oct 1, 2018 – today 5v5 GF%
Klef and Larsson (1370 min) (34-57) 37.4%
Klef without Larsson (723 min) (33-34) 49.3%
Larsson without Klef (721 min) (24-45) 34.8%
Neither On (3838 min) (163-166) 49.5%

Klef is team average without Larsson and below replacement with him.

Who you play with matters a ton.

Bag of Pucks

So, you’re wanting a do-over on the Hall trade then?

Runs and hides.

Woodguy v2.0

Hmmmmmm. Let me think on that. 😀

npanciroli

I dunno what to say after reading this other than wow. Great analysis.

Harpers Hair

Worth noting, since we’re being nostalgic, that Andrew Cogliano will play in his 1000th NHL game this coming week.

Brantford Boy

LT: “If the Oilers win, while the other three lose, the city of Edmonton parties until dawn.”

Just to be clear, I’ll be partying at Chrome Island too…

Really torn at the thought of the playoffs… I don’t want the Oilers to play Vegas in round 1, although would love to see a BOA it ensures elimination of one Canadian team in the playoffs. Maybe we face Arizona (yuck), Nashville (big game tonight) or a dark horse like Chicago. I’d take the Canadian match up if the Jet’s can get back to the Wildcard… there’s not much help for Stanley coming north in the East.

Go Oilers!

Harpers Hair

With Benson and Yamamoto in Edmonton, there’s blood in the streets of Bakersfield.

The Condors lose 10-3 to the Reign last night.

Pretty thin gruel down on the farm.

Bag of Pucks

We should probably change their name from Condors to Brogan’s Heroes.

dustrock

Yeah and Manning gave the Reign extra motivation by being racist. Thanks, Chia.

Bag of Pucks

Imagine the drama going into this trade deadline if Hall had never been traded, and was a pending UFA with no apparent interest in resigning?

The heat from that kind of rage could float Donny Ives’ gondola.

Btw, if you’re taking the LRT to tonight’s game, don’t forget your meth pipe.

Woodguy v2.0

Just a couple of years later, the quality of the roster is so poor that Horcoff and two veterans can’t reach 40 percent. It’s even worse in a mentor role, as the possession and expected goals remain the same, but the actual goal differential caves in from all sides. I well remember folks hammering Horcoff really good (while also getting his cap hit wrong) in these years, but context is important.

I would argue that the biggest variable in Horcoff’s results between the 07/08 team and the 09/10 teams was Dcorps

07/08 by total 5v5 TOI
Player TOI
Tom Gilbert 1319.6
Steve Staios 1371.1
Joni Pitkanen 1040.3
Denis Grebeshkov 918.1
Ladislav Smid 931.0
Matt Greene 618.0
Sheldon Souray 390.6
Dick Tarnstrom 409.3

There’s 4 Actual Top 4 NHL players in the first 4 slots then rookies, Souray gettin hurt and ok journeyman.

09/10
Player TOI
Tom Gilbert 1287.3
Lubomir Visnovsky 926.4
Jason Strudwick 990.2
Ladislav Smid 831.2
Denis Grebeshkov 776.6
Sheldon Souray 592.5
Steve Staios 595.2
Taylor Chorney 598.3
Ryan Whitney 321.1
Aaron Johnson 285.8
Theo Peckham 213.1

Top 2 are quality, but Lubo didn’t play enough due to injury.

Gord bless Struds but when he’s the 3rd leading TOI Dman on your team in his 34 year old season, you have a depth issue on your blue.

Then rookie Smid and a mix of good and bad players who didn’t play nearly enough due to injury.

The ability of your top 4 Dmen is critical to team success (which relates to the Larsson issues……)

Bag of Pucks

Horrible era for Oiler D.

We had one guy (Struddy) that could only turn in one direction and another (Whitney) who couldn’t turn in either direction!

Dumping it into Whitney’s corner was guaranteed zone time. Perfect example of injuries wrecking a talented player.

Woodguy v2.0

Yeah, ANA knew it too when they traded him for Lubo.

One injury later and he was done.

leeinvan

Not sure why Benson is starting on the 4th line.
The coach is old school, he has to earn his top minutes.
If you are a creative player that has showed you can product points, is putting him on the 4th line helping anyone ?
Some of the decisions of the coached this last little while have been head scratching.

Bag of Pucks

To be fair, his first shift of the game was on Connor’s line.

I like Benson a lot, but he does have slower boots and is going to need to win Tippett’s trust. Give him time.

KSC10032

Woodguy v2.0:
Going to the game with Hbomb this afternoon.

Alex Thomas might drop by Hbomb’s for some prelims.

There will be whiskey.

GOILERS!!!

*clapclap*

You and Tyler together???

Have the authorities and/or the requisite clean up crews been alerted?

Woodguy v2.0

KSC10032: You and Tyler together???

Have the authorities and/or the requisite clean up crews been alerted?

We have a liver on standby

OilClog

Well I’m glad my eyes aren’t betraying me yet, Larsson is le train wreck.

If Kenny can get anything for him, do it now! This isn’t a player that will be able to snap his fingers and pull it together for the playoffs.

Maybe Florida would like him infront of their net, I will light a candle.

jtblack

“and remain hopeful the Oilers will be buyers at the deadline.”

LT: what are you comfortable with as far as parting assets?

Edmonton is most likely going to be without a 3rd due to the Lucic trade (if Neal scores 21, the 3rd goes to Calgary, as there is no way Lucic will hit 11) …

So if Ken parts with a 2nd rounder, then it’s 1 pick in the Top 100.

Are you good if Ken parts with the 2nd at the deadline?  

Woodguy v2.0

leeinvan:
Not sure why Benson is starting on the 4th line.
The coach is old school, he has to earn his top minutes.
If you are a creative player that has showed you can product points, is putting him on the 4th line helping anyone ?
Some of the decisions of the coached this last little while have been head scratching.

When I looked at Benson’s 20 year old AHL year I found 21 close comparables.

Most of those player went on to be top 6 NHLers.

17 of the 21 started their NHL career in the bottom 6.

8 with ~3rd line minutes and 9 with ~4th line minutes.

Coaches want to be sure they can trust a player without the puck before its their job to defend the best player on the other team.

Most teams break in rookies this way and its the right way.

The 4 who went straight to top 6 were:

Bobby Ryan who was drafted 2nd overall and was PP savant out of the gate
Claude Giroux
Sean Couturier (who had 77 NHL games the year previous to his AHL stint)
Tyler Ennis on a terrible BUF team.

2nd rounders without high end offense don’t go straight to the top 6 the vast majority of teams in their rookie year.

How Tippett is treated Benson is normal and correct.

Here’s a link to my Benson piece: https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2019/09/projecting-tyler-bensons-1920-season.html

Woodguy v2.0

jtblack:
“and remain hopeful the Oilers will be buyers at the deadline.”

LT:what are you comfortable with as far as parting assets?

Edmonton is most likely going to be without a 3rd due to the Lucic trade (if Neal scores 21, the 3rd goes to Calgary, as there is no way Lucic will hit 11) …

So if Ken parts with a 2nd rounder, then it’s 1 pick in the Top 100.

Are you good if Ken parts with the 2nd at the deadline?

He could get a 2nd back for JP if he still has him at the draft.

I don’t think Holland trades the 2nd for a pure rental. Maybe Pageau, but that’s probably it.

If he trades the 2nd I bet the player has at least one year after this under contract and that changes the equation.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Woodguy v2.0,

“TOR (-130) at MTL (+110) – Hockey Day in Canada headliner. MTL has value because TOR has no goalering.”

Toronto lost Ceci for a month yesterday.

Lots of young blue on the big club right now.

Woodguy v2.0

I bet it will be touch and go for them to make it unless Andersson gets back soon.

JimmyV1965

leeinvan:
Not sure why Benson is starting on the 4th line.
The coach is old school, he has to earn his top minutes.
If you are a creative player that has showed you can product points, is putting him on the 4th line helping anyone ?
Some of the decisions of the coached this last little while have been head scratching.

We have no idea what Benson will be at this level. If he can even compete at this level. It’s best to ease him in IMO.

edoil1

Yes the 06 run was great,but it also gave us the decade of darkness because Klowe,Mct ect. in Katz’s eyes could do no wrong . They should have all been shown the door 7 years sooner.Calgary cleaned out the Sutterite colony a few years after their 04 run and it kept them competitive .That 06 run was a blessing but as time goes on more of a curse in my eyes.

Woodguy v2.0

leeinvan: If you are a creative player that has showed you can product points, is putting him on the 4th line helping anyone ?

If you dig deeper into my piece you’ll see this among the Benson comps:

21 year old NHL year points/60:
1st liners (2 players) 2.09
2nd liners (2 players) 1.67
3rd liners (8 players) 1.67
4th liners (9 players) 1.51

These players are actually producing in the bottom 6.

When you say ” is putting him on the 4th line helping anyone ?” I think you could make the argument that its probably going to help the 4th line and that’s a good thing. Depth.

Dicky94

OilClog,

I agree. A few teams need a veteran d man. No better time than now to trade him for some offence. Oilers d will be fine without him.

jtblack

Woodguy v2.0: He could get a 2nd back for JP if he still has him at the draft.

I don’t think Holland trades the 2nd for a pure rental.Maybe Pageau, but that’s probably it.

If he trades the 2nd I bet the player has at least one year after this under contract and that changes the equation.

Edmonton tried the 1 pick in the Top 100 in 2014 & 2015; and even though they nailed the top picks, they had no other quality players arriving … until now …

So I hope Ken has 1 – 2nd round pick .. whether he trades it at the deadline and re coups it at the draft … or just keeps the one he has …

teddyturnbuckle

I remember iwatching the NHL finals in 2008 when Crosby played against Datsyuk and the Wings. Pavel had just returned from injury but was easily the best player on the ice. I was cheering for the Pens and thought Sid was the best going into the series. Once the series started I couldn’t believe how good Datsyuk was at both ends of the rink. He made Sid look like a junior player. To his credit Sid changed his game after that series and became a better all around player and champion. I feel Conner and Leon have to mature at some point like Sid did into complete players if the Oilers are going to become a great team.

dustrock

Woodguy v2.0:
Going to the game with Hbomb this afternoon.

Alex Thomas might drop by Hbomb’s for some prelims.

There will be whiskey.

GOILERS!!!

*clapclap*

Are you giving Hupka a copy of How Not to Be a Dick? 😉

This is like 1/4 of my twitter TL in one place drinking whiskey.

Well done.

Go Oilers!

GordieHoweHatTrick

I see Persson is playing again in Bak presumably after some downtime with an undisclosed injury.
Anyone watching those games to see if he is improving on the issues he was sent down to improve?
Risky to move Larsson at trade deadline because of general lack of RHD depth…But if there is a need in return, this would not be horrible based on what I hav Essen so far the year…
Nurse-Bear
Klef-Pers
Jones-Ben
Lags/Krusty

OilClog

Nice to see Manning and his stupid face get beaten into a pile of mush by the fellow he ran his stank ass mouth off too.

OilClog
Woodguy v2.0

dustrock: Are you giving Hupka a copy of How Not to Be a Dick?

This is like 1/4 of my twitter TL in one place drinking whiskey.

Well done.

Go Oilers!

I should get him a copy!

barry.moore23

Woodguy v2.0,

Yell at the refs for me ! ?

Woodguy v2.0

Always Barry!!

ArmchairGM

Woodguy v2.0: Benning has had the advantage of low FO/60 in most of your sample and that will influence his results.

I don’t think that’s the case as I was only looking at ice-time that Benning was paired with the top 2 LHD who wouldn’t have been sheltered, I eliminated his 3rd pairing time from the results. If I remember I’ll pull the numbers on Monday just to be sure.

Woodguy v2.0

ArmchairGM: I don’t think that’s the case as I was only looking at ice-time that Benning was paired with the top 2 LHD who wouldn’t have been sheltered, I eliminated his 3rd pairing time from the results. If I remember I’ll pull the numbers on Monday just to be sure.

If you have the dates and partners handy I can run it pretty quick at puckiq

ArmchairGM

Woodguy v2.0: If you have the dates and partners handy I can run it pretty quick at puckiq

I don’t have them handy.

v4ance

Woodguy v2.0:
Was digging into some GF% black holes on EDM.

Check this out:

There are two GF% black holes on the Oilers.

Khaira and Larsson.

Last two seasons 5v5 GF%:

Larsson and Khaira together (335 min) (8-21)27.6%
Larsson without Khaira (1757 min) (50-81) 38.2%
Khaira without Larsson (823 min) (24-42) 36.4%
Neither On (3737 min)(172-158) 52.1%

To make it more clear:

5v5 GF%
One or both Larsson and Khaira on the ice (2915 min) (82-144) 36.3%
Neither On (3737 min) (172-158) 52.1%

Total (6652 min) (254-302)45.7%

That`s incredible.

Also,

You may think Klef is hurting Larsson’s results, but it looks like that’s a one way street:

Oct 1, 2018 – today 5v5 GF%
Klef and Larsson(1370 min) (34-57)37.4%
Klef without Larsson (723 min)(33-34) 49.3%
Larsson without Klef (721 min) (24-45) 34.8%
Neither On (3838 min) (163-166) 49.5%

Klef is team average without Larsson and below replacement with him.

Who you play with matters a ton.

You really need to slip this to multiple members of the Oilers management quietly. Via fax, stapled to their coffee order, printed on flyers on their windshields… anything!

I say quietly so that the rest of the league doesn’t catch on to how bad these two are actually playing. That way, Holland has a decent chance of trading both for something strictly based on name recognition. On the other hand, teams like CAR or NJ or TOR would already have figured this out by now so that would eliminate them from being trade partners…

I liked your suggestion of Larsson for Hoffman out of FLA yesterday. Would do wonders for both teams. As in, we would be wonderful and FLA would be wondering what the heck they actually bought off us two months down the line.

This actually reminds me of the Smid trade where we sent him to Calgary when EDM figured out he was done and before CAL had come to the same realization.

Woodguy v2.0

Thanks

Bulging Twine

Woodguy you’re on fire today!

ps thanks

v4ance

I’m sure all that scotch he’ll be imbibing will put him out tonight…. oh wait…

Bulging Twine

Benson contributes offensively best if he has a finisher on his line. I guess Chiasson would have to be the finisher, or at least, the shooter on that line.

If we follow the successful line template of his time in Bakersfield.
Marody was the puck carrier, Benson good on the wall and passing, Currie the finisher.

Haas could be the Marody, Benson the Benson and Chiasson the Currie.

Whatever, just thinking out loud.

godot10

GCW_69:
“I would argue that the Oilers need to reset the wingers on McDavid’s line. If you’re running below 50 percent in expected goals and or Corsi with 97 on a line, pull the chute. ”

The Oilers answer is to extend the winger for 4 years at over $3M per. You know, cause they can’t tell the difference between being carried on McDavid’s back vs contributing.

Calgary needs or is looking for a right wing.

In my alternative universe, the Oilers trade Kassian to the Flames for Sam Bennett, and the Oilers run Bennett, McDavid, and Neal. Bennett is a junkyard dog, which is the type of winger I think McDavid needs. And yes.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Aren’t Bennett and Connor buddies from back in the day? Might be some chemistry there.

SwedishPoster

Connor’s ideal winger is probably 27 year old Marian Hossa. Now how do you trade for that guy?

I don’t think Benson had much of a first game, needs to figure out how to be around the puck more. He arrived late to a lot of situations. I didn’t really feel it was due to slow boots either, his skating looks average but not dreadful at the NHL level, it was more about his read&react not being quite there. The positive is that it’s something that should improve with some time to adjust to the pace. When you can’t compensate with quickness your processor has to be fast to survive. Hopefully Benson’s processor is up to the task. The times he found the puck I think he looked like he could be a player.

Phil

Hey guys, don´t know if this is interesting for you because it´s in german – but if it is, just let me know and I can translate some of the passages for you.

Yesterday german media made a livestream from Leon´s home. He just got back from practice and said it was a bit more intense than usually because of the last game against the sharks…

Here is the recording of the livestream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dURcvVyoFIs

Greetings from Germany,
Phil

jake70

Connor is the winger, he needs a good center at this stage. 🙂

Pescador

SwedishPoster:
Connor’s ideal winger is probably 27 year old Marian Hossa. Now how do you trade for that guy?

I don’t think Benson had much of a first game, needs to figure out how to be around the puck more. He arrived late to a lot of situations. I didn’t reallyfeelit was due to slow boots either, his skating looks average but not dreadful at the NHL level, it was more about his read&react not being quite there. The positive is that it’s something that should improve with some time to adjust to the pace. When you can’t compensate with quickness your processor has to be fast to survive. Hopefully Benson’s processor is up to the task. The times he found the puck I think he looked like he could be a player.

I put next to zero stock into Benson’s performance in terms of positive or negative.
I can’t image the nerves he was dealing with, 1st NHL game in front of 18,000 of his hometown fans, Mom & Dad & friends in attendance, had to sit in the pressbox and think about it for a couple of games.
I bet it would have been easier to get into a game the same day as your recall in a foriegn rink, zero expectations no time to think about it.
Very nice gesture by coach Tippett to give him the opening faceoff.
I’m more interested in how Benson adjusts tonight & Monday

Pescador

Huzzah, it worked!
I feel like Andy Dufrense

Woodguy v2.0

Put up a twitter thread on Larsson that might be of interest to some: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1226222226900320256

Woodguy v2.0

ArmchairGM: I don’t have them handy.

Lemme know when you get them and I’ll have a look. Are you on twitter? (twitter DM’s are good for this type of stuff)

Bulging Twine

Interesting, you talk of him as mentor, he is now in player development.

godot10

Don’t forget. Horcoff was also a Yak whisperer.

trader

Pescador,

We all want Benson to do well but watching him live on Thursday, nerves aside, those boots are slow

Pescador

jtblack: Edmonton tried the 1 pick in the Top 100 in 2014 & 2015; and even though they nailed the top picks, they had no other quality players arriving … until now …

So I hope Ken has 1 – 2nd round pick .. whether he trades it at the deadline and re coups it at the draft … or just keeps the one he has …

~you need to wait at least 6-7 years to find out about your draft picks ~~.
Very encouraged by what I saw from Lagesson last game, looks like an NHL dman.
Can’t trade the first, don’t want to trade this years second, third rounder is gone, next to no cap space.
Holland has very very little to work with at this years deadline, if he gets something done that improves the roster this year, I will be more than impressed

fries n gravy

Hi all – old time poster (old account info lost), recent lurker, Dad for a year, and now rebooted poster here.

I get out to OHL games when possible and talk to whichever scouts will tolerate me. Last night an Oilers guy and I chatted quite awhile and he opened up my eyes on several topics & players. As a new Dad I haven’t been able to watch much hockey lately, but thanks to you bunch of LT hooligans I was able to keep up on discussions about several prospects. Thanks!

“To buy or sell?” That is the team’s question. A few quick wins would sure clarify things.

Woodguy v2.0

Bulging Twine:
As I’m thinking out loud….

Results stats and underlying measurables

I wonder what progressive teams are discovering in regards to things they can measure that can be linked to goals for and against.I wonder what things, yet to be discovered or measured are still out there.

For instance, in baseball (I know, I know, hockey and baseball are hard to compare), over the last few years teams have honed in on Exit Velocity.The speed of the ball coming off the bat.And Launch Angles.The angle at which the ball leaves the bat.These two things by themselves are not home runs or hits or doubles but if you combine them, teams found, and it seems obvious, that they lead to home runs.The faster the ball is travelling at a greater angle, the further it will travel.duhSo they acquire players that hit the ball hard and them get them to try to hit it at a greater angle.

Also, for pitchers, some teams have zeroed in on Spin rate.The amount of spins the baseball makes from leaving the pitcher’s hand to entering the catcher’s mitt.Teams found that pitchers who could spin the ball the most could get the most movement on their pitches.They acquired those pitchers and got them to throw significantly more Curveballs – to great success.Again, this is an underlying measurable that leads to a stat– more strikeouts – less hits.

What is out there that smart management teams have found is measurable that leads to goals for or less goals against (that isn’t widely known).Or what is not being measured that could be measured that is not a result stat in itself but contributes towards those.

I know some people with access to SportlogIQ data and they say they’ve been able to suss out some interesting things.

An example is they’ve been able to identify some individual traits/abilities such as “puck battle wons” “time to get to the puck on forecheck” and myriad of other things including offensive ability with the puck.

This has allowed some teams to examine their teams, identify some things they lack and target players who can fill a hole.

They send the scouts to follow these players to make sure all the non-record-able stuff is good (personality, etc) as well.

I don’t know anyone working for PIT, but PIT targeting Tanev and giving him a contract that didn’t make sense then having Tanev and Aston-Reese take on the toughest assignments and excel at it screams “targeted specific abilities” to me.

Its the single biggest reason they’ve weathered their injuries so well. They still have had a great tough minutes line when either Crosby or Malkin were out.

Lots of teams get this data, but not all (EDM gets it)

Not many actually do useful things with the data once they get it (EDM doesn’t)

Woodguy v2.0

Lowetide: Sure but that’s covered in the “quality of roster being poor” sentence. The thing I never understood was fans turning on Horcoff. Made no sense to me. He was a good soldier, mentored Hall and Eberle, sacrificed his remaining good years to hand off a better team (one hoped) for the future.

Defense. Forwards. Goalies. It was all poor. People blamed Horcoff. And later, incredibly, Hall.

How about Tambo firing Renney because Renney refused to play 14-93-4 against the other team’s best and kept putting Horcoff out in those minutes to shelter them against it?

Man, this team.

Jethro Tull

Yeah, what craziness would it have been to have one of the game’s best defensive centers at the time saw off against the toughs before unleashing 14-93-4 against the soft parade?

The only time Tambo did anything and it was wrong.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Renney has since mentioned there were clashes where he wouldn’t go against his ethics. Many have speculated it was about rushing certain players back from injury.