Keep on Truckin’

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had perhaps his best game of the season, delivering across all 200-feet of NHL canvas in a thrilling display of two-way hockey. He won’t get the attention he deserves, but here, at this blog, we want to take a moment to acknowledge greatness on a Saturday night in February. Nuge was outstanding.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Observations: A Connor McDavid scare, Leon Draisaitl’s back, boosting the top line and helping Zack Kassian
  • New Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a ‘long road’ to the NHL, Tyler Benson’s Oilers debut holds extra meaning
  • Mitch Brown: The Video Room: How Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto overcomes his small stature to make dynamic plays
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Emotionless’ Oilers fail yet again to match passion from a week ago
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade suggestions: 50 proposals from readers, with our verdict
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
  • Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 55 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 21-29-5, 47 points; goal differential -29
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 29-18-8, 66 points; goal differential +11
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 23-28-4, 50 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 24-26-5, 53 points; goal differential -20
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 29-20-6, 64 points; goal differential +3

Last night was a terrific effort by the Oilers, in all honesty I thought the club was done 38 minutes into the game. Hockey is such a strange game, absolute random luck cut the deficit in half and gave the home team life. It was a mausoleum before the Chiasson goal, a raucous joint after the goal. Big win.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Current 10 games: 3-2-0

Oilers have had one poor 10-game segment so far, and this 10-game set feels like a tight one.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -15
  • Oilers in February 2017: 1-3-0, two points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in February 2018: 1-2-1, three points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in February 2019: 1-1-2, four points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2020: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential +1

February is a damned tough month based on these four-game runs to begin the proceedings over five years. Man, there’s no joy in these numbers. This year’s team is the only one to have two wins after four games.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 2-2-0, four points in four games

The Oilers have a busy schedule this month, so it’s a combination of quality of opponent and how many games are btb or third in four nights. After the massive run coming out of the AS break (two against Calgary with a game against St. Louis in between) this week represented a struggle. The win Saturday stops a two-game losing streak and sets up the road trip in a more positive light.

OILERS 2019-20

Dave Tippett coached his ass off last night, catch the time on ice for some of these lines. Alex Chiasson had a brilliant early chance and then later scored the biggest goal of the game. All numbers five on five and via NST.

LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 13:13, going 20-8 Corsi, 12-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 5-2 HDSC.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a splendid evening, including a grand back check that squashed what could have been the winning goal, and two passes to Draisaitl that led to goals. Finished 0-1-1 five on five, with two shots and two HDSC, three giveaways and two takeaways. His stellar back check on Arvidsson was all-world and won’t get the attention it deserves. Outstanding work. Leon Draisaitl received much of the attention post-game and with good reason. He scored a goal, had four shots, three HDSC, drew a penalty and won 10 of 18 in the dot. His second goal was the winner. Kailer Yamamoto continued to be a catalyst for this trio, although it was a slow start for the line. He finished with an assist, three shots, one HDSC and a takeaway.

LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 9:25, going 8-8 Corsi, 5-6 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira played a physical game, helping to set the tone early with a hit against Nick Bonino. He had one shot, which stood as Edmonton’s best scoring chance for some time. Had a takeaway. Riley Sheahan had a shot, a takeaway and won seven of nine (nice). He was effective in four PK minutes. Josh Archibald had three shots, hit like a truck and transported well. I like what he brings.

LINE 3 Sam Gagner-Connor McDavid-Alex Chiasson played 8:55, going 7-15 Corsi, 2-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-7 HDSC. That might be the worst line from a line that contains 97 in his NHL career.

Sam Gagner had two shots, took a penalty and had two giveaways. I understand why Tippett moved him up, but suspect one of the reasons Samwise was succeeding on a depth line had to do with quality of opponent. Connor McDavid had a wild night: Power-play assist, two penalties, two giveaways, won four of eight in the dot. He hurt his knee on an innocent looking play and that became central to the game story (as it should). Postgame Tippett said it was not expected to be a serious issue. McDavid was creating chances for Chiasson and (later) Leon. Alex Chiasson missed a yawning cage early in the game, and was credited with the goal that got things going late in the second period. He didn’t have any crooked numbers of note at five on five. This line should end.

LINE 4 Tyler Benson-Gaetan Haas-Zack Kassian played 4:28, going 3-0 Corsi, 2-0 shots.

Tyler Benson had an early giveaway, which is like running a stop sign for a player in his second game. Limited minutes after. Gaetan Haas won four of seven in the dot. Zack Kassian was not a factor. It’s easy to bury these guys but the bottom line is Tippett coached to win, to end the losing streak, to find two points on a night when the team had a chance to get closer to the light up above. I don’t blame him. Tippett said post-game he got caught chasing the win and that Kassian will get more minutes next game.

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 16:51, going 19-24 Corsi, 11-10 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-7 HDSC.

Darnell Nurse had three shots, a giveaway, takeaway, penalty and four blocked shots. The penalty came when he got beaten by Matt Duchene. Ethan Bear had one shot, four giveaways and two takeaways. The young man passed the puck well, one of the parts of his game Edmonton needs badly. He is so calm, and can move that puck so well, it gives the team a completely different look when he’s on the ice.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 13:51, going 14-11 Corsi, 8-6 shots, no goals and 5-1 HDSC. This was a solid showing by the pair, owing much to the nine minutes spent with the Draisaitl line.

Oscar Klefbom had five shots, one HDSC and showed good speed in recovery. He is such a valuable player. Adam Larsson played a physical game and was solid in 3:40 on the PK.

PAIRING THREE Caleb Jones and Matt Benning played 9:04, going 9-5 Corsi, 6-3 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC.

Caleb Jones had two giveaways and got boxed out on the Smith goal, but that was more an effective pick than a rookie mistake. He’s learning the NHL game and I believe he’ll have a quality career. His passing is coming along, the game is starting to slow down for him. Leave him in the lineup! Matt Benning had three shots, created a rebound on one of them. He was there for Bonino’s goal but couldn’t interrupt the tip.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 27 of 29, .931. He delivered on all easy and mid-range shots, allowing two of nine HDSC to get by him. I thought he was excellent, highlighted by a sequence in the middle of the second period where Duchene and then Josi had 10-bell chances. Tippett said after the game that Smith is ‘dialed in’ and that’s a good description.

CONNOR MCDAVID

McDavid was injured last night on a play that landed him in the end boards. Ryan Rishaug from TSN asked him about it in the post-game avail and Tippett said it was “not his hurt knee” and that he had a “little bump on his knee” so we’ll wait for more information. He was brilliant as always during game action.

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288 Responses to "Keep on Truckin’"

« Older Comments
  1. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack:
    McKenzie tweeting2 yrs × $5.5 for Nurse ….

    He actually said over $5.5…remains to be seen how much over.

  2. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    I think they didn’t sign Pitlick because they thought he was injury prone.

  3. Bad Seed says:

    stephen sheps:
    No. There’s nothing it can’t do. I could have some right now. Currently lacking in Irish whiskies, though I have enough scotch to kill multiple horses.

    Though to be fair I thought the consensus was that sticky fingers, not let it bleed was the best stones album that isn’t exile. I could be wrong. That conversation was a very long time ago.

    I miss the pre-OP days when LT talked about his favourite bands.

  4. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    I think they didn’t sign Pitlick because they thought he was injury prone.

    I like the Nurse deal. We should be out of cap hell with an inexpensive young D corps when it comes time to re-up him.

  5. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jtblack:
    McKenzie tweeting2 yrs × $5.5 for Nurse ….

    Not ideal, but I can live with that if it allows KH to lock up Bear on a long-term deal as well.
    IMO 5.5 is about current market value for the next 2 years and, as such, is a very tradable contract (should it come to that). It also allows the Oilers (and unfortunately the rest of the league) a bit more time to see what is going to happen with Nurse and their emerging D lineup for the next 2 years.
    This could also be viewed as “taking one for the team”, if as we hear, he is keen to play most of his career here with Connor. There may also be more certainty in the Cap in 2 years and the space the Oilers have to play with should they want to offer him a UFA contract at age 27. If he is still a top 3 Dman in their line up at that time, he will still get around market value.
    The reality is the Oilers are still in a bit of a pickle with the Cap for the next 2 years…

  6. Gerta Rauss says:

    Dreger tweeted about 45 min ago that he’s hearing $5.6M x 2

  7. Nit64 says:

    Throwing shade again. He actually said a shade higher than $5.5.

  8. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Lowetide:
    I wouldn’t be shocked to see Holland acquire Kovalchuk

    I’ll take the bait…what do you think would be fair return going to MTL?

  9. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Side,

    I am trying to figure out how godot “shut up the critics because they were wrong” though.

    Critics shut up?

    Hi Side, you must be new. My name is Woodguy, welcome to Lowetide’s comments section.

    Thank you.

    I’m hoping to make a good first impression so I have been drafting up some topics to post about. Do you know if the Taylor Hall trade has been talked about in much length here? Or whether Giordano was intentionally targeting McDavid’s knees? Or has anyone talked about Canucks world beater of a prospect, Brogan Mafaferty?

  10. Nit64 says:

    Only about half the time. The other half goes to tracing each goal allowed back to a bad contract signing. Don’t get me started on the third half. Can’t walk a block here without tripping over Dementors.

  11. Harpers Hair says:

    Nit64:
    Throwing shade again. He actually said a shade higher than $5.5.

    Using shade twice in one post is a very creative although somewhat redundant literary artifice.

    I would think it’s actually the Bob Father who started the whole thing.

  12. Munny says:

    Like the numbers/term or not, this signing demonstrates Nurse is a team-first guy. By taking less of each, he’s taking on all the risk.

  13. who says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Not ideal, but I can live with that if it allows KH to lock up Bear on a long-term deal as well.
    IMO 5.5 is about current market value for the next 2 years and, as such, is a very tradable contract (should it come to that). It also allows the Oilers (and unfortunately the rest of the league) a bit more time to see what is going to happen with Nurse and their emerging D lineup for the next 2 years.
    This could also be viewed as “taking one for the team”, if as we hear, he is keen to play most of his career here with Connor. There may also be more certainty in the Cap in 2 years and the space the Oilers have to play with should they want to offer him a UFA contract at age 27. If he is still a top 3 Dman in their line up at that time, he will still get around market value.
    The reality is the Oilers are still in a bit of a pickle with the Cap for the next 2 years…

    If Nurse turns into a top pairing dman it’s going to cost us down the road.
    However, if he just treads water for the next 2 years, I doubt his next contract is much over 7 million. If that.
    One things for sure, Nurse doesn’t mind betting on himself.

  14. Bank Shot says:

    I like this deal.

    Gives the Oilers cap flexibility short team and they can also walk away from Nurse in two years if he doesn’t improve. If he does well, then they have a top pairing D-man which they desperately need.

  15. Dustylegnd says:

    jtblack: Connolly

    jtblack:
    Kassian is a JAG.Love it ….

    With half of this yr, Kass has 4.5 yrs remaining.The truth is when Kassian hasn’t been zoomed by All time greats (Sedins, McDavid), Kass has never put up much offense That’s who he is.

    Maybe Ken ok with who Zack is and thunks the contract is fair.

    I also laugh when the best rebuttal supporters of the contract have is “we can buy him out in year 3 or 4”.

    $3.5 mil – E Staal, Rust, Hagelin, Connolly,Tanev, Komarov, Foligno
    $3.25 mil –Colangilo, Burakovsky, Z Smith, Dzingel, Dvorak

    Interesting comparables

    nick Foligno 6 goals 5.5 mill
    Marc Foligno 9 goals 2.85 mill

    Dzingle 8 goals 3.375 mill
    Hagelin 4 goals 2.75 mill
    Tanev 11 goals 3.5 mill
    Rust 22 goals 3.5 mill
    Stall 17 goals 3.25 mill
    Cogliano 2 goals 3.25 mill
    Burakovsky 17 goals 3.25 UFA next year
    Z smith 4 goals 3.25 mill
    Dvorak 16 goals 4.45 mill
    Komarov 1 goal 3 mill

    Connolly didn’t want to play in Edmonton….the Foligno boys fight, none of the others do looks like we could have done worse

  16. jtblack says:

    Dustylegnd:
    nick Foligno 6 goals 5.5 mill
    Marc Foligno 9 goals 2.85 mill

    Dzingle8 goals 3.375 mill
    Hagelin 4 goals 2.75 mill
    Tanev 11 goals 3.5 mill
    Rust 22 goals 3.5 mill
    Stall 17 goals 3.25 mill
    Cogliano 2 goals 3.25 mill
    Burakovsky 17 goals 3.25 UFA next year
    Z smith 4 goals 3.25 mill
    Dvorak 16 goals 4.45 mill
    Komarov 1 goal 3 mill

    Connolly didn’t want to play in Edmonton….the Foligno boys fight, none of the others do looks like we could have done worse

    The reality is when a GM is playing in the “$3.25 Mil” Pool, it’s a Mixed Bag.

    We Wait

  17. duct tape and foil says:

    I’ve been a fan of both Larsson and Nurse but the last few games have been troubling.

    Nurse’s passing is mediocre and has been awful recently (several games of missed passes resulting in icings often 2 or 3 in a row). He does not look like a $7-$8 million dman to me. I like the Nurse deal since it takes us another 2 years down the road when more of our LD will be riper (Sammy and Broburg) and we can choose between Klef and Nurse.

    Larsson, warrior that he is, looks more and more like yesterday’s man on defense. His skating used to be average but now it’s sub-par. Would TML trade Barrie for Larsson. Barrie is better offensively but UFA this summer (unlikely TML resigns him). Larsson is better defensively and has 1 more year at a very cap friendly price. Neither team can afford to lose a RHD without another coming back.

    Klef Bear
    Nurse Barrie
    Jones Rusty Benning

  18. Nit64 says:

    Side: Thank you.

    I’m hoping to make a good first impression so I have been drafting up some topics to post about.Do you know if the Taylor Hall trade has been talked about in much length here? Or whether Giordano was intentionally targeting McDavid’s knees?Or has anyone talked about Canucks world beater of a prospect, Brogan Mafaferty?

    Hey New Guy. To make it easy to know how to react to each play the team’s Third Jersey has the cap hit on the back of the jerseys. If you’re need to tell Nurse and Kassian apart, Kassian is the guy that started wearing 3.2 this week. Nurse just gave up 3.2 to wear 5.6. A bit confusing the game they both wore 3.2.

  19. Harpers Hair says:

    With Winnipeg’s win over Chicago, the Jets take over the first wild card spot in the WC.

    The noose is tightening among the Pacific division teams.

  20. Nit64 says:

    who: One things for sure, Nurse doesn’t mind betting on himself

    2 bridge deals now. Player is keener to bet on himself than mgmt has been. Decision in a year to extend or trade him before expansion draft.

  21. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My opinion is that:

    Kassian is JAG (just a guy) with 97. There is no magic there, but he can play there and that’s important.

    Also,

    Agreed that EDM had great goalering/defending (peak Sexsey) during 16/17, but 17/18 it wasn’t good and that’s as far back as my sample went.

    In 17/18 we see this:

    McDavid w/ Maroon – 523.5min – 52% GF
    McDavid w/o Maroon – 819.5min – 59.8% GF

    So in the sample I used Maroon’s results with 97 are very similar to Kassian’s.

    To an extent I agree Kassian is just a guy, but as you said “he can play there” which not everyone can.

    It’s been argued that any/most 3rd/4th liners would perform comparably with McDavid as Kassian has and I just don’t agree with that. He’s absolutely not unique but IMO he’s been notably better than a lot of the options that have been tried (and I believe the numbers support that).

    One of the key differences in how we’re viewing this (it seems) is that I’m giving Kassian a break for his raw GF% number because McDavid was much worse without Kassian (since Jan 2019) than he was in the 1.5 seasons before that.

    Your comparing Kassian to Maroon based on GF% is the perfect example of that.

    McDavid with Maroon- 52%
    McDavid w/out Maroon 59.8%

    McDavid with Kassian- 53.1%
    McDavid w/out Kassian 51.7%

    Or from Jan 2019 to present (when Kassian and McDavid played 1035 of their 1107 minutes together)
    McDavid with Kassian- 52.4% (1035 min)
    McDavid w/out Kassian 41.4% (573 min)

    (That last set is shocking, I hadn’t looked at the McDavid without in the past year+ before)

    Anyway, while Kassian and Maroon have similar GF% results with McDavid, McDavid’s results away from them are radically different (even if you just take ~60%GF for Maroon vs ~52%GF for Kassian). I look at that and think McDavid isn’t driving play to the same extent overall lately as he was in 16-17 and 17-18.

    So McDavid’s results with Kassian have been superior to his results without (radically so in the past 13 months) while his results with Maroon were well shy of his results without. I think that means something and Kassian deserves credit for it, but you don’t need to agree.

    Based on McDavid’s GF% delta with and without the various wingers I looked at Kassian comes in as 3rd best behind only Nuge and Draisaitl, two guys making a ton more than he is. McDavid had a worse GF% with than without 5 of 7 the remaining linemates (the guys not named Draisaitl, Nuge or Kassian).

    IMO this shows that Kassian is one of the better options McDavid has played with (and is arguably the best of the options that makes less than $6M per). So not quite JAG.

  22. Gagnongoeshelf says:

    Nobody is worried playoffs for the Oil are all but a lock.

  23. Nit64 says:

    Interim WG sorted by everyone’s fav Pt% and listing pts above Bettman .500.

    As-if-ic
    EDM 9
    VAN 9
    VGK 7

    Wildcard
    CGY 6
    WPG 6

    Out of playoffs
    NSH 5
    ARI 4
    MIN 3
    CHI 3

    Airtight, Alright. Goodnight.

  24. Dustylegnd says:

    jp,

    great post

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    McLeod’s offence is starting to spike at the AHL level.

    Doesn’t project to be a legit top 6 NHL guy but this is what one wants to see in the 2nd half of his rookie pro season

  26. Harpers Hair says:

    Gagnongoeshelf:
    Nobody is worried playoffs for the Oil are all but a lock.

    The Flames have a very favourable schedule for the rest of February.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see them leading the Pacific on March 1.

    WPG is also almost out from under the Byfuglien mess and will be able to add a couple of D at the deadline.

    At least one team in the Pacific is going to fall back.

    Nothing is a lock.

  27. Munny says:

    Lowetide:
    I wouldn’t be shocked to see Holland acquire Kovalchuk

    I wouldn’t either, thankfully Bergevin sounds like he’s holding out for higher assets than the value he’s trading.

    #famous

    I also wouldn’t be surprised if rat bastard Marleau ends up here either.

    But I do think Holland is most likely trying to find someone like Coleman, Devin Shore, Luke Glendening who have a year to go on their contracts, and don’t have a hefty trade or salary price tag.

    Or an easy guy to re-sign. You know, like… ENNIS!

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Nurse deal provides a solid $1M of extra cap space this off-season over what was anticipated.

    The premise is for the two sides to sign a long term extension, maybe as early as next offseason, which will kick in for the 2022/23 season when the cap is projected to start to increase materially with the new US TV deal, but this helps the team’s ability to improve this coming off-season.

    From all accounts Nurse wants to sign long term – Holland takes on some risk with the UFA expiry deal but the deal provides shorter term cap flexibility which should make most fans happy I would think.

  29. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McLeod’s offence is starting to spike at the AHL level.

    Doesn’t project to be a legit top 6 NHL guy but this is what one wants to see in the 2nd half of his rookie pro season

    Never change OP.

    McLeod is currently 231st in AHL scoring tied with Alex Petrovic.

    He’s 28th in rookie scoring despite playing more games than many ahead of him

    That is hardly a “spike”.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: The Flames have a very favourable schedule for the rest of February.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see them leading the Pacific on March 1.

    WPG is also almost out from under the Byfuglien mess and will be able to add a couple of D at the deadline.

    At least one team in the Pacific is going to fall back.

    Nothing is a lock.

    Aren’t the flames like -16 on goal differential?

    Of note, the Oilers have the top points percentage in the Pacific and a solid positive goal differential – given how determinative we’ve been told those two numbers are……..

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Never change OP.

    McLeod is currently 231st in AHL scoring tied with Alex Petrovic.

    He’s 28th in rookie scoring despite playing more games than many ahead of him

    That is hardly a “spike”.

    Scoring rates much higher over the last 4-5 games – “starting to spike”, another way of saying, producing more now than earlier – an important way of looking at development of a 20 year old rookie pro – of course, having nothing to do with season long totals but looking at splits as a sign of development.

    Who shouldn’t ever change?

  32. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Scoring rates much higher over the last 4-5 games – “starting to spike”, another way of saying, producing more now than earlier – an important way of looking at development of a 20 year old rookie pro – of course, having nothing to do with season long totals but looking at splits as a sign of development.

    Who shouldn’t ever change?

    6 points in his last 10 games.

    Olli Juolevi has 8 points in his last 10 games and he’s a defensemen.

    Is he “spiking” too?

  33. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Aren’t the flames like -16 on goal differential?

    Of note, the Oilers have the top points percentage in the Pacific and a solid positive goal differential – given how determinative we’ve been told those two numbers are……..

    OriginalPouzar: Aren’t the flames like -16 on goal differential?

    Of note, the Oilers have the top points percentage in the Pacific and a solid positive goal differential – given how determinative we’ve been told those two numbers are……..

    +3 goal differential is hardly solid,…it can vaporize in one poor performance.

    The Oilers have a much tougher schedule for the rest of the month with a road trip that includes TB, FLA, CAR and then return home to face the Bruins.

    Calgary’s next 5 games are against SJS, LAK, ANA, CHI, ANA.

  34. duct tape and foil says:

    Getting Athanasiou and Glendening from DET makes some sense as it addresses speed and both LW and C. Both guys are under control next year although the LW is RFA. Should not cost the moon to do this deal with JP plus other assets like Khaira and a young dman thrown in.

  35. RedNed says:

    For those of a superstitious frame of mind.

    Games show here during the middle of the day. For both games against Nashville I’ve had a grandson staying over (different ones). Both of them came in and watched only part of the game. When each came in, Preds had two goals. Within a minute of their respective arrivals in the room, Oilers started rolling and an entertaining game ensued. Both Grandsons were pretty impressed by the Oil.

    I’ve got one more grandson not too far away, the rest are about 1000 miles. Lucky there’s only one more Pred’s game in regular season. I’ll do what I can to get him here 🙂

  36. Side says:

    Harpers Hair:
    +3 goal differential is hardly solid,…it can vaporize in one poor performance.

    The Oilers have a much tougher schedule for the rest of the month with a road trip that includes TB, FLA, CAR and then return home to face the Bruins.

    Calgary’s next 5 games are against SJS, LAK, ANA, CHI, ANA.

    So far this season Calgary is:

    1-1-1 against LAK
    0-2-0 against SJS
    1-0-0 against ANA
    1-1-0 against CHI

    For a total of

    3-4-1

    I’m not sure what point you are trying to make here.

    When is Gio coming back again?

  37. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Uh-oh. Paranoid thought.
    What if they need a centreman instead of a winger and that is why Cave is coming up and Benson went down??
    Time to find my medication…

    You worried me a bit with this when you first posted but there’s zero chance Nuge and Draisaitl remain together if McDavid misses time. So even if he were injured the called up player could as easily be a winger as a centre.

    A more likely guess is Haas coming out of the lineup. He’s 20-1-1-2 since mid-December and has played less than 10 minutes in 8 of his last 10 appearances.

  38. jp says:

    Munny:
    Maybe LT can confirm, but pretty sure there is a draft eligible prospect this year by the name of Jaroslav Pouzar.

    Looks like this guy is draft eligible and fits the description.

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/522535/jaroslav-pouzar

    But he doesn’t look like someone who’s likely to get drafted.

  39. Munny says:

    Yeah, don’t think anyone has him ranked. But… name.

  40. Munny says:

    jp: A more likely guess is Haas coming out of the lineup.

    That’s what I’d say too. I’ve been rootin for him but he has plateaued when he needs to climb the hill in front of him.

  41. Munny says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Getting Athanasiou and Glendening from DET makes some sense as it addresses speed and both LW and C. Both guys are under control next year although the LW is RFA. Should not cost the moon to do this deal with JP plus other assets like Khaira and a young dman thrown in.

    It might not cost the moon but think Stevie Y would hold out for a bit more in the quality of the assets. He’s a grinder too. We’d also need to move a bit more salary.

  42. jp says:

    For sure. But I hope Holland don’t spend a pick for nostalgia!

  43. jp says:

    Yeah it’s too bad he hasn’t been able to do just a little more, so far at least. You can definitely see why Holland gave him a shot though.

  44. v4ance says:

    who: The Draisaitl contract was one of the best things Chia did.
    You can argue it should have been for 1 million less but you weren’t in the negotiations. What if Drai wasn’t willing to sign for 8 years for less money? Do you sign him to a 2 year bridge for 5 million? And then sign him last summer for 8 x 11? Cause that’s what the market would be for 50 goal scorers.
    Part of signing a young player long term involves projecting where he is going to get to. Sure it’s a bit of a gamble, but Chia rolled the dice and won.
    He locked up a young, budding superstar for 8 years at 8.5 million. It was a great signing. Can’t we at least give him credit for that?

    You should stop posting because everything you say is flat out wrong.

    After the ELC, the contract comparables were for Leon were:

    John Tavares 6 years $5.5M AAV
    Taylor Hall 6 years $6M AAV

    Nathan MacKinnon: 6 years $6.3M AAV
    Sasha Barkov : 6 years $5.9M AAV
    Sean Monahan 7 years $6.375M AAV
    Johnny Gaudreau 6 years $6.75 M AAV

    —>>>Leon Draisaitl 8 years $8.5M AAV<<<– Spot the outlier?

    Aaron Ekbad 8 years $7.5M AAV
    William Nylander 5 years $6.9M AAV
    Nikolai Ehlers 6 years $6M AAV

    The talk leading up to the offseason was that Leon would get $6.5M AAV due to inflation or maybe a bump to $6.75M AAV because of his playoff heroics. The second contract post ELC traditionally was when the team still had a lot of leverage due to arbitration and they used that hammer effectively to keep the inflation down even for the star players.

    Oilers management was tight lipped about McDavid's pending extension but when he came in at $12.5M AAV, many of us rejoiced because the majority believed we'd get McDavid and Draisaitl signed for around $19M for the pair. Everyone's jaw dropped here and around the league when Draisaitl's $8.5M AAV was announced because it was a drastic raise compared to previous second contracts.

    With one stroke, Chiarelli reset the AAV for the second contract . Years and years of GMs had successfully held the line and kept the rise of the post ELC contract manageable and all it took was one idiot to blow it up. Chiarelli literally screwed up the salary cap structure for the entire league. That's not what I call a smart move.

    It was the same for the Hall for Larsson trade. That one transaction chilled the trade market for defencemen for 10 months until the next offseason because every GM holding a Top 4 D-man was asking for the same return Jersey got: a top 3 young forward. That was another Chiarelli overpay that temporarily reset the market and hurt the rest of the league. GMs came to their senses next year but in 2016-17, very few high profile D moved via trade.

    The one rare deal that Chiarelli did correctly was for Klefbom; signing him to a 7 year $4.167M AAV.

    Other than that Chiarelli was an oasis of suffering in a dessert of pain. We don't even need to discuss #16 & 33

  45. jp says:

    v4ance: I alluded to it before but what if this is the pending cliff for Larsson just like it was for Smid in his 29 year old season.They both play a similar hard nosed style that may wear them out faster than other less robust defencemen.

    When we traded Smid for Broissoit, I remember lots of people were complaining that we were giving up the hard nosed playoff style defenceman that we needed for a balanced team.In the immediate aftermath of the trade, some basic corsi % numbers were posted showing that Smid was handily losing the possession battle in his last year with Edmonton.That didn’t sway the gritensity crowd but Smid was literally out of the NHL 3 years later.

    If this is the cliff, Holland should be calling other GMs seeing if they’re interested in Russell and slowing falling back to Larsson in a “oh okay, you can take this better D” con game.

    Interesting comparison, and obviously a concerning comparable. No question that if this really is the cliff for Larsson it’s better to cut bait ASAP. Really the only reason for hope with Larsson is that his underlying numbers remain strong.

    As for Smid, I’m not sure there was much foreshadowing (at least statistically) that predicted his demise. Larsson, is also the better player to start (before the cliff, if that’s what this is).

    Smid was actually traded at age 27 and played his last NHL game less than a month after his 30th birthday (he just turned 34 this month!).

    The Oilers were atrocious when Smid was part of the team but he was basically even or positive relative to team in corsi, shots and goals for/against at ages 23, 24, 25 and 26. Age 27 he played 17 games for the Oilers before the trade where his results were bad. Then they remained not NHL quality after arriving in Calgary (both raw and relative to team).

    The only warning was 17 poor games for the Oilers in Oct/Nov 2013, which is neither a big enough or bad enough sample to say a lot IMO. He sure did fall off a cliff around then though.

    Larsson until the last 2 years has generally had positive corsi, shot and goal numbers relative to team (while also playing on better teams than Smid).

    Looking just at his last 4 seasons with the Oilers, ages 23, 24, 25 and 26:
    His corsi for % rel: 0.05, -0.19, 2.85, -2.41
    His shots for % rel: 1.03, -0.09, 1.70, -1.22
    His goals for % rel: 3.73, 4.84, -13.11, -13.46
    His DFF%rel All:— 0.70, 2.20, 1.30, 0.20
    His TOI vs elites:— 35.0, 35.3, 35.3, 34.6

    His GF% has tanked in the last 2 seasons but there’s barely been any change in any of the underlying numbers. It’s weird. Maybe he has reached the cliff, but I’m holding out hope this is just some unlucky blip.

  46. pts2pndr says:

    Aren’t you just our little ray of sunshine.

  47. Munny says:

    Nurse wants to get paid based on his TOI.

    I think that’s fair.

    I think it is a credit to him that he took the discount. I wonder what future number the handshake took place on? Is he going to get paid for missed salary? Regardless, I think we will see other players and agents accede to these terms/salary for the promise of a bigger payday when the cap jumps. Could be a helluva UFA crop that summer.

    There’s a lot of fear on HF Oil that Nurse will hold the hammer and wield it on the next contract. The Oil are going to have a 12 month head start on that contract and will know exactly where they stand, with the ability to trade Nurse if an agreement can’t be made.

    And the Nurse camp knows that the GM is motivated to re-sign him. Everyone knows what he means to the room and the core. And one of the reasons he plays so much with 97 is because he is really the nuclear deterrent for McDavid out there. Just like I’m sure he’s the protection when they are out and about town.

    Nurse and Holly getting together on this is team-building shit. In fact, this recent spate of signings seems well-timed… removing worries from players’ minds (and their families’ minds) while entering the final stretch drive.

    I’m liking New Holland.

  48. BONE207 says:

    It’s almost like being on one. His wife is a saint.

  49. pts2pndr says:

    No he is a real jewel of a fifth overall draft pick who is on his second Ahl season and a full year plus older than McLeod who was picked 40th overall.

  50. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic Oilers reportedly finalizing short-term deal for Darnell Nurse to free up cap space for summer

    https://theathletic.com/1596072/2020/02/10/oilers-reportedly-finalizing-short-term-deal-for-darnell-nurse-to-free-up-cap-space-for-summer/

  51. Munny says:

    v4ance,

    I remember too though that $7.5M was considered the upper limit for the contract… because of 8 yrs term and Ekblad. There were a lot of people adamant that it shouldn’t be more than 6.5M, but everyone also knew that $7.5M wasn’t outside the range of possibilities.

    Then the story came out that Connor had taken a $1M discount to give to Drai explaining the gap. Some scouting there by McDeity, btw.

  52. who says:

    v4ance: You should stop posting because everything you say is flat out wrong.

    After the ELC, the contract comparables were for Leon were:

    John Tavares6 years $5.5M AAV
    Taylor Hall6 years $6M AAV

    Nathan MacKinnon: 6 years $6.3M AAV
    Sasha Barkov : 6 years $5.9M AAV
    Sean Monahan7 years $6.375M AAV
    Johnny Gaudreau 6 years $6.75 M AAV

    —>>>Leon Draisaitl 8 years $8.5M AAV<<<– Spot the outlier?

    Aaron Ekbad 8 years $7.5M AAV
    William Nylander 5 years $6.9M AAV
    Nikolai Ehlers 6 years $6M AAV

    The talk leading up to the offseason was that Leon would get $6.5M AAV due to inflation or maybe a bump to $6.75M AAV because of his playoff heroics.The second contract post ELC traditionally was when the team still had a lot of leverage due to arbitration and they used that hammer effectively to keep the inflation down even for the star players.

    Oilers management was tight lipped about McDavid’s pending extension but when he came in at $12.5M AAV, many of us rejoiced because the majority believed we’d get McDavid and Draisaitl signed for around $19M for the pair.Everyone’s jaw dropped here and around the league when Draisaitl’s $8.5M AAV was announced because it was a drastic raise compared to previous second contracts.

    With one stroke, Chiarelli reset the AAV for the second contract .Years and years of GMs had successfully held the line and kept the rise of the post ELC contract manageable and all it took was one idiot to blow it up.Chiarelli literally screwed up the salary cap structure for the entire league.That’s not what I call a smart move.

    It was the same for the Hall for Larsson trade.That one transaction chilled the trade market for defencemen for 10 months until the next offseason because every GM holding a Top 4 D-man was asking for the same return Jersey got: a top 3 young forward.That was another Chiarelli overpay that temporarily reset the market and hurt the rest of the league.GMs came to their senses next year but in 2016-17, very few high profile D moved via trade.

    The one rare deal that Chiarelli did correctly was for Klefbom; signing him to a 7 year $4.167M AAV.

    Other than that Chiarelli was an oasis of suffering in a dessert of pain.We don’t even need to discuss #16 & 33

    Charming.
    You didn’t answer the question. What would you have done if Draisaitl refused to sign for long term for less?
    The way I see it you could have bridged him for less, or enticed him to sign long term. Chia got him to sign for 8 years. Are you arguing that was a mistake?
    The rest of your post is just a rant about Chia. Hell, everybody knows he was a bad GM. But I guess only some of us are objective enough to give him credit for his occassional good moves.
    Did I offend you when I said you really didn’t understand the game?

  53. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic Oilers reportedly finalizing short-term deal for Darnell Nurse to free up cap space for summer

    https://theathletic.com/1596072/2020/02/10/oilers-reportedly-finalizing-short-term-deal-for-darnell-nurse-to-free-up-cap-space-for-summer/

    I wonder if the Nurse deal (saving $1M-$1.5M for the next two years relative to a long term pact) means Holland has committed to win-now mode?

  54. Munny says:

    jp,

    Win-next year?

    It does mean he can take on more AAV if he’s planning on trading for a player with term at the deadline.

  55. RonnieB says:

    An argument could be made that the salary scale for players of Leon’s calibre was, at least in part, reset about 6 weeks before Leon’s signing when Evgeny Kuznetsov got 8 x $7.8 million. In his contract year EK had 19 goals and 40 assists in 82 games, along with 5g and 5a in 13 playoff games. That same year Leon had 29g and 48a in 82 games along with 6g and 10a in 13 playoff games.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    LT the rug is soaked again

  57. Fuge Udvar says:

    The Nurse contract is excellent in my opinion. Nurse has had prime ice time on the top pairing and plenty of PP time over the last couple years with injuries and the state of our D corp. Lots of people talking about how he was going to get paid for those plausibly career years in points.

    Now he has 2 years to prove he really is that dominant physical defensemen. Just like he had the chance to on his last contract.

    We now run the risk of losing him for nothing in 2 years but:
    – He won’t have those number 1 D man usage to negotiate with
    – We will know precisely what kind of D man he will be (the picture is getting clearer)
    – With Bouchard, Broberg and Sammy 2 years more experienced (plus Bear) the D Corp will be more competitive
    – We should be (better be) a contending team and should be a more attractive signing spot

  58. Yegfoundation says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It’s called a joke. I get that you’re seemingly humour challenged and have never posted anything remotely funny…like ever. But some people actually enjoy a laugh now and then.

    BoP, your joke was rude and a clear shot at OP. I hope you have enough future fulfillment and satisfaction in your life so that you’re not so concerned with OP.

  59. Wilde says:

    Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; February 9th, 2020; first run (11/7)

    Benson-Malone-Currie
    Gambardella-Esposito-Hebig
    Stukel-McLeod-Maksimov
    Koules-Peluso

    Lowe-Bouchard
    Manning-Persson
    Samorukov/Kulevich-Day

    after 20

    11CF-21CA
    6FF-10FA
    0GF-1GA

    Top F: Hebig (0.06 Game Score)
    2 shot attempts, 0 shot assists
    4CF-7CA
    3FF-5GA
    0GF-1GA

    Top D: Bouchard (0.11 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
    5CF-6CA
    3FF-1FA
    0GF-0GA

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: 6 points in his last 10 games.

    Olli Juolevi has 8 points in his last 10 games and he’s a defensemen.

    Is he “spiking” too?

    Why are you comparing a soon to be 22 year old player, a 2016 top 10 overall draft pick in his 3rd year pro to a 20 year old rookie pro 2nd rounder?

    Also, yes, Juolevi is finally starting to spike in his development.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    +3 goal differential is hardly solid,…it can vaporize in one poor performance.

    The Oilers have a much tougher schedule for the rest of the month with a road trip that includes TB, FLA, CAR and then return home to face the Bruins.

    Calgary’s next 5 games are against SJS, LAK, ANA, CHI, ANA.

    Yup, strength of opponent is something, however, with the league being full parity, there isn’t that much to choose between good and not so good teams (DET excepted) – this can be seen by you making predictions all year long on the future standings based off of strength of schedule and being consistently wrong.

    You do realize that all year long you’ve posted about points percentage and goal differential being primary determiners of future standings but now you choose to ignore the because they favor the Oilers?

  62. rickithebear says:

    Kassian 1.95M -> 3.2M is +1.25M, 4yr.
    I stated he likely gets 1/3 to 1/2 of Mcdavids ev min this yr.
    Like that they are enticing Archibald for resign with Mcdavid minutes.
    Nurse 3.2M -> 5.6M is + 2.4M, 2 YR. UFA, decision made!
    1.25 + 2.4 = 3.65M – 3.125M (Gagner) = +.5M next yr.
    +.5M – (.225 Granlund burry + .300 gryba buyout) = -.025M
    That is a wash.

    1.175M available from the Manning Bury to direct to our current best Shot success density reduction Dman Benning
    (each def side is diffrent)

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    LT the rug is soaked again

    Posters are allowed to converse with HH and, no, are not required to use what you consider the HH reply button.

  64. rickithebear says:

    RonnieB:
    An argument could be made that the salary scale for players of Leon’s calibre was, at least in part, reset about 6 weeks before Leon’s signing when Evgeny Kuznetsov got 8 x $7.8 million. In his contract year EK had 19 goals and 40 assists in 82 games, along with 5g and 5a in 13 playoff games. That same year Leon had 29g and 48a in 82 games along with 6g and 10a in 13 playoff games.

    Thanks for the fact based contextual point!
    Had not considered the playoff aspect!
    Awesome!

  65. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    19/20
    EDM Goal Share after 55 games (29-20-6)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 55-53 (51%)
    McDavid Off Ice 59-76 (44%)
    Net EV = -15

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    49-34
    Net ST +16

    Empty Net
    12-11
    Net EN=+1

    SO & PS
    3-3
    SO & PS= Even

    Net Goal Differential = +2

    Leavins mentioned EDM sniffing around Coleman in NJD.I’d like that.

    McDavid can get a 50%+ goal share with the grits, but this team needs some talent around him so he can clock in at 55%+ and likes coming to work every day.

    Goal share must be adjusted for FO ZS and Bench change with/ without pocession.
    To reflect expected entry and Corsi For and against from forwards.
    It is at this pt fwds penetration and open SH targeting is balanced with Dmen and goalies influenceof corsi faced by preventing penetration and making Corsi non scoreable: (blocks, forced misses, Closed shots, by Dmen) and (Open shot saves by goalies)

  66. Wilde says:

    lmfao holy shit fellas Manning might be a third pairing guy down here

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    ARI and MTL – Go Habs!

    NSH and VAN – Go two point game, preferably with NSH winning – Oilers lead division vis-a-vis points percentage

    CGY and SJS – A Sharks win would make me smile very large.

  68. Wilde says:

    Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; February 9th, 2020; after 40

    28CF-37CA
    14FF-18FA
    0GF-4GA

    Top F: Currie (0.48 GS)
    5 shot att, 0 shot asst
    12CF-8CA
    5FF-3FA
    0GF-0GA

    Top D: Bouchard (0.16 GS)
    2 shot att, 3 shot asst
    11CF-13CA
    6FF-4FA
    0GF-0GA

    Manning 0-3 GF-GA on the night so sar, last I checked his season numbers were 3-13, meaning together that’s 18.75 GF%.

  69. jp says:

    Munny:
    jp,

    Win-next year?

    It does mean he can take on more AAV if he’s planning on trading for a player with term at the deadline.

    Exactly. Mostly 2020-21 and 2021-22, but it could even affect the trade deadline.

    I wonder about a Neal buyout too. Does ~$4M buy you a better McDavid winger than Neal? Maybe not in terms of goals, but most likely yes in terms of even strength scoring/outscoring (though I’m curious to see if Neal-McDavid’s point scoring and on ice results can catch up to their underlying shot and scoring chance numbers, which are very good).

  70. v4ance says:

    RonnieB:
    An argument could be made that the salary scale for players of Leon’s calibre was, at least in part, reset about 6 weeks before Leon’s signing when Evgeny Kuznetsov got 8 x $7.8 million. In his contract year EK had 19 goals and 40 assists in 82 games, along with 5g and 5a in 13 playoff games. That same year Leon had 29g and 48a in 82 games along with 6g and 10a in 13 playoff games.

    Ah yes but Kuznetzov had a 2 year ELC followed by a 2 year RFA bridge deal so that wasn’t exactly the same comparison. If anything, that lends more weight to the notion that Drai was given a drastic raise.

    If you tack that $3M bridge for 2 years to the first 6 years of the 8 year RFA-UFA deal, that would have driven down the AAV to about $7.5M AAV.

    Again, that’s why a lot of us were saying an $8.5M AAV was $1M too much when given the historical comparatives. Each one of the comparables I used signed their second deal after their ELC deals for 6+ years without going through a bridge.

    It’s a total credit that Leon used the contract as the starting point and motivation to prove himself worthy of that contract instead of the endpoint and coasting through this contract knowing he’s set for life no matter what else he does from now on.

    Also, one small point of contention. McDavid took his $1M discount to help the TEAM. It was so the Oilers could afford to sign better players to surround him. It was never meant explicitly to directly give Leon an extra $1M raise.

    If that was the case, Leon owes McDavid free suppers anytime they go out for the rest of their lives. Even going to the priciest restaurants around the league, there’s no way McDavid eats $8 million in food.

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: Before I commit this to memory, I need to ask…. were any phones involved in the posting of this comment?

    You’re not wrong to ask.

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: To an extent I agree Kassian is just a guy, but as you said “he can play there” which not everyone can.

    It’s been argued that any/most 3rd/4th liners would perform comparably with McDavid as Kassian has and I just don’t agree with that. He’s absolutely not unique but IMO he’s been notably better than a lot of the options that have been tried (and I believe the numbers support that).

    One of the key differences in how we’re viewing this (it seems) is that I’m giving Kassian a break for his raw GF% number because McDavid was much worse without Kassian (since Jan 2019) than he was in the 1.5 seasons before that.

    Your comparing Kassian to Maroon based on GF% is the perfect example of that.

    McDavid with Maroon- 52%
    McDavid w/out Maroon 59.8%

    McDavid with Kassian-53.1%
    McDavid w/out Kassian 51.7%

    Or from Jan 2019 to present (when Kassian and McDavid played 1035 of their 1107 minutes together)
    McDavid with Kassian-52.4% (1035 min)
    McDavid w/out Kassian 41.4% (573 min)

    (That last set is shocking, I hadn’t looked at the McDavid without in the past year+ before)

    Anyway, while Kassian and Maroon have similar GF% results with McDavid, McDavid’s results away from them are radically different (even if you just take ~60%GF for Maroon vs ~52%GF for Kassian). I look at that and think McDavid isn’t driving play to the same extent overall lately as he was in 16-17 and 17-18.

    So McDavid’s results with Kassian have been superior to his results without (radically so in the past 13 months) while his results with Maroon were well shy of his results without. I think that means something and Kassian deserves credit for it, but you don’t need to agree.

    Based on McDavid’s GF% delta with and without the various wingers I looked at Kassian comes in as 3rd best behind only Nuge and Draisaitl, two guys making a ton more than he is. McDavid had a worse GF% with than without 5 of 7 the remaining linemates (the guys not named Draisaitl, Nuge or Kassian).

    IMO this shows that Kassian is one of the better options McDavid has played with (and is arguably the best of the options that makes less than $6M per). So not quite JAG.

    I think you need to pull Drai out of the Kassian sample if you’re going to give Kassian a lot of the credit there.

  73. v4ance says:

    Wilde:

    Manning 0-3 GF-GA on the night so sar, last I checked his season numbers were 3-13, meaning together that’s 18.75 GF%.

    Speaking to his future NHL prospects… ” so you’re saying there’s a chance?”

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: Thank you.

    I’m hoping to make a good first impression so I have been drafting up some topics to post about.Do you know if the Taylor Hall trade has been talked about in much length here? Or whether Giordano was intentionally targeting McDavid’s knees?Or has anyone talked about Canucks world beater of a prospect, Brogan Mafaferty?

    All of those topics would be new and fresh.

    Excitedly awaiting your posts.

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear: Goal share must be adjusted for FO ZS and Bench change with/ without pocession.
    To reflect expected entry and Corsi For and against from forwards.
    It is at this pt fwds penetration and open SH targeting is balanced withDmen and goalies influenceof corsi faced by preventing penetration and making Corsi non scoreable: (blocks, forced misses, Closed shots, by Dmen) and (Open shot saves by goalies)

    If you post that after every game I promise to read it.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    v4ance: You should stop posting because everything you say is flat out wrong.

    After the ELC, the contract comparables were for Leon were:

    John Tavares6 years $5.5M AAV
    Taylor Hall6 years $6M AAV

    Nathan MacKinnon: 6 years $6.3M AAV
    Sasha Barkov : 6 years $5.9M AAV
    Sean Monahan7 years $6.375M AAV
    Johnny Gaudreau 6 years $6.75 M AAV

    —>>>Leon Draisaitl 8 years $8.5M AAV<<<– Spot the outlier?

    Aaron Ekbad 8 years $7.5M AAV
    William Nylander 5 years $6.9M AAV
    Nikolai Ehlers 6 years $6M AAV

    The talk leading up to the offseason was that Leon would get $6.5M AAV due to inflation or maybe a bump to $6.75M AAV because of his playoff heroics.The second contract post ELC traditionally was when the team still had a lot of leverage due to arbitration and they used that hammer effectively to keep the inflation down even for the star players.

    Oilers management was tight lipped about McDavid’s pending extension but when he came in at $12.5M AAV, many of us rejoiced because the majority believed we’d get McDavid and Draisaitl signed for around $19M for the pair.Everyone’s jaw dropped here and around the league when Draisaitl’s $8.5M AAV was announced because it was a drastic raise compared to previous second contracts.

    With one stroke, Chiarelli reset the AAV for the second contract .Years and years of GMs had successfully held the line and kept the rise of the post ELC contract manageable and all it took was one idiot to blow it up.Chiarelli literally screwed up the salary cap structure for the entire league.That’s not what I call a smart move.

    It was the same for the Hall for Larsson trade.That one transaction chilled the trade market for defencemen for 10 months until the next offseason because every GM holding a Top 4 D-man was asking for the same return Jersey got: a top 3 young forward.That was another Chiarelli overpay that temporarily reset the market and hurt the rest of the league.GMs came to their senses next year but in 2016-17, very few high profile D moved via trade.

    The one rare deal that Chiarelli did correctly was for Klefbom; signing him to a 7 year $4.167M AAV.

    Other than that Chiarelli was an oasis of suffering in a dessert of pain.We don’t even need to discuss #16 & 33

    This is an excellent post.

  77. v4ance says:

    Thanks brother. Coming from you that’s a nice compliment 🙂

  78. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Fair and understood.

    Also,

    Slags on the Sedins had no basis in truth and were just xenophobic or envy often wrapped up in a dose of misogyny (ie. “sisters”)

    Probably chauvinism rather.

    They do kinda look like alien babies and used to do bad things to my hockey team so . . .

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chauvinism is fair.

  80. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think you need to pull Drai out of the Kassian sample if you’re going to give Kassian a lot of the credit there.

    But I/we did that yesterday no?

    You can look at the time period where Kassian and McDavid have been linemates:

    Jan. 1st 2019 to present:
    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian 717min 53.2%GF
    Draisaitl-McDavid-xxxxxxx 269min 42.1%GF
    xxxxxxx-McDavid-Kassian 318min 50.0%GF
    xxxxxxx-McDavid-xxxxxxx 304min 40.6%GF

    Or you can look at the full numbers since the beginning of the 2017-18 season:

    2017-18 to present:
    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian 727min 54.2%GF
    Draisaitl-McDavid-xxxxxxx 1113min 53.9%GF
    xxxxxxx-McDavid-Kassian 380min 50.0%GF
    xxxxxxx-McDavid-xxxxxxx 1392min 52.1%GF

    The first set shows that in the past 13 months (this timeframe accounts for 1061 of 1137 minutes McDavid and Kassian have played together in the 3 seasons) McDavid-Kassian (no Draisaitl) have performed far better than Draisaitl-McDavid (no Kassian). Also far better than McDavid without either winger.

    In this sample Kassian deserved credit, no? I mean, he looks like the driver by the numbers over a 90+ game sample. I’m not trying to claim he actually is but I don’t know how one could deny that he looks like a full and important contributor here.

    In the larger (2017-present) sample Kassian looks like a slight drag on McDavid. I agree with that, but I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.

    Why? If you look at xxxxxxx-McDavid-Kassian in both sets they’re at 50%GF, identical (there were also only 62 xxxxxxx-McDavid-Kassian minutes pre-2019, so I’d argue basically meaningless). The Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian results are also comparable (1%GF higher in the large sample).

    Where’s the difference? Draisaitl-McDavid-xxxxxxx and xxxxxxx-McDavid-xxxxxxx, which both drop ~10% in the Jan2019-present sample compared to the 2017-present sample. McDavid has not been the same player (in terms of driving on ice results) as he was in 2016-17 and 2017-18. Including Oct 2017-Jan2019 skews the WOWY because you’re adding a period where McDavid was 57%GF without Kassian to one where he was 41%GF without Kassian (since Jan2019). (also 56%GF without Draisaitl or Kassian to 41%)

    McDavid alone and Draisaitl-McDavid have fallen off a cliff in the past 13 months. It’s only while Kassian has been on the ice that McDavid’s been in the ball park of his previous performance. I think Kassian deserves considerable credit considering what’s happened when he’s not on the ice. And since he’s been a McDavid winger there’s zero evidence (that I can find) that Draisaitl’s been driving the results.

  81. v4ance says:

    This is my last post in response because you obviously don’t understand simple concepts or history.

    Chiarelli was a horrible GM He did many things badly and one of those things was overpaying on contracts and giving out too many NMC or NTC clauses.

    If Drai wanted $8.5M, I would have done what every GM in every sport has done in the decades of sports management. I would have let Leon sit.

    Just like Dubas sat Marner later in the year. The GM has most of the leverage in this negotiation and they’ve used it over and over and over. It’s not a new tactic…

    ***

    Think about this in reverse. The Oilers and Draisaitl SETTLED on $8.5M AAV when historical comparables were ~$6.5M with inflation. What was the Oilers initial offer? $7M? $7.5M? What was Leon’s? $9M? None of those numbers make any sense unless you’re an idiot bidding against yourself like Chia.

    And yet here we are…

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I have an issue with your Jan 1 cut off for the sample.

    I understand why you did it, but it significantly alters the results for a not good enough reason imo.

    We won’t agree on this, and that’s ok.

  83. jp says:

    Not much I can do if you won’t agree.

    I think adding a sample (pre-Jan 1, 2019) where McDavid’s GF% without Kassian is 57% to one where it was 41% (irrespective of Draisaitl) is problematic.

    Will you acknowledge that Kassian appears to have been a (considerable) positive influence on McDavid’s results since Jan 2019?

  84. godot10 says:

    McDavid reset the market.

    Draisaitl was NOT going to sign for less than $8.5 million He signed for 2/3rds of what McDavid got. That was reasonable.

    And if one looks at the percentage of the cap for all comparable centres for the full 8 years after the ELC for the last decade, Draisaitl’s contract is basically right on the mark.

    I posted these numbers at the time.

    If a guy in his pajamas in his basement can do this, Leon’s agent certainly could.

  85. godot10 says:

    Smid’s demise was primarily due to injuries to his back.

  86. RonnieB says:

    Your comments about EK are valid, and were in my mind when I used the qualifier “at least in part”. I remember thinking that summer that the EK contract should set the upper limit on Leon’s contract; I was hopeful he would sign for about $7.25.

  87. YKOil says:

    v4ance: Ah yes but Kuznetzov had a 2 year ELC followed by a 2 year RFA bridge deal so that wasn’t exactly the same comparison.If anything, that lends more weight to the notion that Drai was given a drastic raise.

    If you tack that $3M bridge for 2 years to the first 6 years of the 8 year RFA-UFA deal, that would have driven down the AAV to about $7.5M AAV.

    Again, that’s why a lot of us were saying an $8.5M AAV was $1M too much when given the historical comparatives.Each one of the comparables I used signed their second deal after their ELC deals for 6+ years without going through a bridge.

    This is what I recall as well. There was a lot of market place cap-creep going on at the time – everyone expected $7m+ to become the new norm but keeping it below $7m was still very doable.
    The Kuznetzov contract made $7m+ more probable but it was the Drai contract that made it ($7m+ the new normal).

    I would add, however, that the Tavares contract made the $10m+ contracts the new normal and made Drai’s contract ‘normal’ from $7m+ to $8m+ (i.e. Drai was no longer the possible outlier there). Chia, via Drai, may have moved the chains but Dubas/Tavares moved the whole damn stadium.

  88. CallighenMan says:

    no, he’s a non-rookie BUST

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