When I Get to the Border

The Edmonton Oilers had a shocking weekend that resulted in waking up on holiday Monday in first place. This city was rocking last night and left no wakeup call for this morning. What a night in Raleigh for this hard working team. Up next: The Bruins. No problem. Apparently.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It was reactionary’: Oilers’ Zack Kassian addresses alleged kick; Lightning depth strikes; and Kailer Yamamoto’s big game
  • Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Why Connor McDavid’s injury is unlikely to alter Ken Holland’s trade deadline plan for the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We want to take it as a challenge’: Oilers survive first game without McDavid as room for improvement remains
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trying to make sense of Connor McDavid’s injury and Darnell Nurse’s new contract with Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Faced with uncertainty, Oilers hedge their bet on Darnell Nurse
  • Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20

OILERS AFTER 59 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 22-31-6, 50 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 32-19-8, 72 points; goal differential +14
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 24-31-4, 52 points; goal differential -34
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 24-29-6, 54 points; goal differential -25
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 32-21-6, 70 points; goal differential +5

Oh what a feeling, what a rush! Oilers are on pace for 97 points, that’s a sure playoff spot. A reminder, I had them finishing with 88 points. This Oilers team has 23 games to get 18 points in order to make me look like a fool. How about you?

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Current 10 games: 6-3-0

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-6-0, four points; goal differential -17
  • Oilers in February 2017: 4-4-0, eight points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in February 2018: 1-6-1, three points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in February 2019: 1-5-2, four points; goal differential -12
  • Oilers in February 2020: 5-3-0, 10 points; goal differential +3

Such a sweet February for the Oilers. The club won two weekend games by getting big stops, forechecking well, winning special teams and playing well at evens. What else is there?

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-3-0, 10 points in eight games

OILERS 2019-20

I have the new 2020 draft item ready to go tomorrow, for the first time I’m not certain the first-round pick is absolutely stapled to the floor. I’m all about keeping the first rounder, but if the Oilers win the Pacific it’s pick No. 24 or No. 25. All numbers five on five unless otherwise noted and everything comes from Natural Stat Trick.

LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 12:14, going 13-14 Corsi, 5-8 shots, 0-3 goals and 2-4 HDSC. Spent 8:22 against Aho, which is the seven stages of hell (nine if there’s overtime).

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a shot, two HDSC and a takeaway. Gave a step to Aho on the second Carolina goal, the set play executed perfectly by the Hurricanes. Tough beat. Leon Draisaitl scored a goal (had two assists but not at five on five), one shot and won six of 15 in the faceoff circle. Draisaitl is on pace for 132 points. Crazy. His overtime backhand pass would be discussed in hushed tones for decades except he seems to do it every damned game. Leon is in the mother of all zones. Kailer Yamamoto scored on the power play, two shots five on five. He was covering Aho on the third Carolina goal, but covering Aho and stopping Aho are two different things. Yamamoto was unable to stop the rocket from the Finn.

LINE 2 Tyler Benson-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 11:01, going 7-7 Corsi, 5-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-0 HDSC.

Tyler Benson grabbed his first NHL assist on a nice play with Archibald. He also had a shot and did some good work. I can’t imagine he stays up when everyone is healthy but he’s showing well. Riley Sheahan had two shots, two HDSC, GV, TK, and won six of 14 on the dot. He had one 10-bell chance late that hit the post. Josh Archibald had the kind of night Fernando Pisani was known for 15 years ago. He scored once (another in overtime), two shots, one HDSC, GV, TK, three hits and drove opponents crazy. He drew a penalty but wasn’t credited. His play that led to his first goal, stopping the puck from exiting the zone, was outstanding.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 8:37, going 6-6 Corsi, 4-2 shots and 1-2 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira picked up an assist on a pass to Leon, took a late penalty 200 feet from his own net. Had one shot. Colby Cave also took a late penalty, won two of five in the faceoff circle. Low event player, which has advantages. Patrick Russell had one shot, HDSC and three hits. His scoring opportunity was excellent, I very much hope he scores a goal this season.

LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 7:37, going 7-7 Corsi, 1-4 shots, no goals and 3-1 HDSC.

Markus Granlund took a solid hit and got the puck out several times. Gaetan Haas had a shot, HDSC, GV, won two of eight in the faceoff circle. I swear he should be called boomerang. He shoots the puck toward the opposition’s end and it bounces off five things and heads back in the other zone. I like him as a player. Alex Chiasson had a shot, HDSC, TK, plus a great chance on the power play. It was point blank and I was shocked it didn’t get through. If we were talking baseball, I’d say “Alex has been hitting ropes lately, but they keep finding leather” and then mention some of those line drives are going to land soon. He’s due for a two-goal game.

PAIRING ONE Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 18:25, going 14-12 Corsi, 6-6 shots, 0-2 goals and 6-3 HDSC. Spent 7:43 against the Aho line on a five skater hard match.

Oscar Klefbom had shot, GV, two blocked shots and a power play assist. Played 30:57, or basically half the game, mobile, intelligent. Adam Larsson had two shots, one HDSC, played over 2:50 on the PK. It was a very physical game, Larsson’s wheelhouse. Both men were on the ice for the first Carolina goal but were in good position. Both men stood up at center on the second goal, Klefbom unable to offer support to Nuge as a streaking Aho (that’s a phrase, eh?) was bound for glory on a set play.

PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 16:33, going 16-12 Corsi, 10-4 shots, 2-1 goals and 3-2 HDSC. Played 4:33 against Aho line.

Darnell Nurse had an assist, two shots, two blocked shots, and played about three minutes on the PK. He made a fantastic defensive play in overtime that could best be described as the best stop, drop and roll in human history. Ethan Bear had three shots, a giveaway and a blocked shot. He got beat wide by Svechnikov on the third goal, damn near recovered by the skill on that Carolina line is amazing. Nurse was unable to interrupt the bullet pass to Aho. I honestly don’t think either man (or Yamamoto) did anything specifically wrong. Sometimes you have to give the other man his due. If you look at the play again, notice how little room Bear gave, and notice how precise the pass. Not sure that play could be defended once Svechnikov gained a step. Honestly.

PAIRING THREE Caleb Jones and Matt Benning played 8:51, going 4-10 Corsi, 1-6 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC.

Caleb Jones was low event, one giveaway and he skated miles. Matt Benning drew a penalty, blocked a shot, passed well.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 27 of 30, .900. He stopped two breakaways in overtime and stood tall against a very talented Carolina team.

JOSH ARCHIBALD

When Ken Holland talked about his summer acquisitions (James Neal, Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan, Markus Granlund, etc) he said something like “the NHL Guide and Record Book says they can score some goals” and I rolled my eyes.

Now, I’m not someone who disregards Holland’s resume or disrespects his accomplishments. I respect his success, both in Stanley Cups and in survival (in business, there are times when survival is success) living in a world with 31 jobs available.

But looking in the guide for goals? Well, after 59 games, James Neal has 19 goals, Josh Archibald 9, Riley Sheahan 7, Gaetan Haas 5, Markus Granlund 3.

Those names replaced the following from last year’s team (with last year’s goal total): Milan Lucic 6, Kyle Brodziak 6, Ty Rattie 4, Jesse Puljujarvi 4, Tobias Rieder 0.

And there’s 23 games left.

The signing of Archibald appears to have been truly inspired. On pace to score a baker’s dozen, Archibald plays 10:20 a night at five on five (scoring .56 goals per 60), 2:15 a night on the PK (scoring 1.08 goals per 60) and six seconds on the power play. He has speed and can play up and down the lineup.

The earliest season NST provides for Fernando Pisani is 2007-08, age 30. It isn’t their fault, that’s where these numbers began. Pisani played 11:28 a night at five on five (scoring .75 goals per 60), 2:29 a night on the PK (scoring no goals) and 1:49 a night on the PP (scoring 2.36 goals per 60).

So, when comparing Archibald to Pisani, the power-play usage isn’t there but in spirit Archibald fills the definition. When I say ‘we’re looking for the Pisani’ I mean someone who can play a depth role and still be productive offensively. Archibald fits that bill. I also mean someone who can mentor youths and help them develop (Pisani helped Stoll, Torres, Stortini, others). Perhaps we’re seeing that with Benson.

We aren’t there yet. Pisani as an Oiler reached mythical heights, scoring the second most famous shorthanded goal in team history. Archibald has many of the elements that made Pisani such a perfect fit. I’ll tell you though, that sequence where he secured the puck before the blue line, fed Benson and then drove to the net was a Pisani play. Ken Holland did well signing Josh Archibald, and needs to sign him to an extension. It’s a compelling story to follow.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re on the air today, starting at 10, TSN1260. Why? Because we want to be there, talking Oilers. WHO would take a day off when talking Oilers is an option? Not me! I’d be there seven days a week but they won’t let me in! (I kid). Tom Gazzola from the Pre and Post and the television will join us at 10:20 to talk about the weekend games, and Jason Gregor will pop in at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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445 Responses to "When I Get to the Border"

« Older Comments
  1. Harpers Hair says:

    wolf8888:
    Harpers Hair,

    What do you mean by thrive and how much will you bet?

    I expect he will finish the season with 25 goals.

    What do you think?

  2. jtblack says:

    Munny: That’s exactly how I feel about Gaudreau, Pageau, Athanasiou, Slavin, Arvidsson, Donskoi…

    Pick. Cherry. Pick Cherry.

    can you list all 4th round picks since 2010?

  3. who says:

    jtblack:
    1 Team wins the Cup.
    2 Pennants.

    So the risk of failure, by the odds, is EXTREME.Only 4 – 6 GM’s will be considered successsful.

    So making trades forr your team to be successful this year, shoukd be a big HELL YA from the fan base and ppl.

    All good teams have a combination of good drafting and good trading.

    No team “just drafts and developes” & no team “”just trades”.

    Good for Van and good for TB. players know GM has their back

    I agree with you about the risk of failure.
    Which is why no team should go all in unless they are sure their window is about to close.
    I think the odds are much better for winning the cup if a team stays in the contending window for as long as possible. Therefore, rentals that rob a team of significant future assets are generally a bad idea.
    There is a so much luck involved in a cup run. You are much better off giving your team as many kicks at the can as possible.

  4. Munny says:

    WTF?

  5. Bank Shot says:

    Remember guys, 5’8″ Yamamoto is going to get creamed and ran out of the rink.

    5’8″ Hoglander makes future first and second round picks expendable.

    That’s what blindly supporting your team looks like.

    A team that is barely over even in goals for/ against is foolish to be trading a bunch of futures to try to win now.

    Everyone can see a solid team coming. No one sees it in the Canucks this season. They are hellbent on trying to force it along, and its going to severely cap the future potential of the team.

    I like it.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: The real issue here is how much do you buy in to the idea that, given the weakness of the Pacific Division, is this the year to go for it.

    Obviously Vancouver thinks it is and had to replace Boeser who is out at least three more weeks.

    Should they be able to stay in the playoffs, they will get Boeser and Josh Leivo back for the stretch run and the playoffs which gives them three strong lines.

    Of course it’s a risk but if they miss the playoffs, the pick they sent to Tampa (now in New Jersey) moves to 2021.

    Also worth noting, the Canucks have a very strong prospect pool even without Madden.

    Podklozin, Hoglander, Lind,McDonaugh and Focht are all trending very well so it’s not like they don’t have a pipeline of potential cost controlled forwards coming on.

    By way of contrast, now that Yamamoto and Benson appear to have graduated, the Oilers forward prospect pool is pretty much depleted outside of Lavoie.

    Carson Focht, the 20 year old forward under a PPG in junior?

    Wait, Benson has now graduated after 4 NHL games but yet you refused to take Quinn Hughes off the list months in to the season?

    Really? Do you not see how fully dishonest this looks?

  7. Munny says:

    who: I agree with you about the risk of failure.
    Which is why no team should go all in unless they are sure their window is about to close.
    I think the odds are much better for winning the cup if a team stays in the contending window for as long as possible. Therefore, rentals that rob a team of significant future assets are generally a bad idea.
    There is a so much luck involved in a cup run. You are much better off giving your team as many kicks at the can as possible.

    This.

  8. jtblack says:

    who: I agree with you about the risk of failure.
    Which is why no team should go all in unless they are sure their window is about to close.
    I think the odds are much better for winning the cup if a team stays in the contending window for as long as possible. Therefore, rentals that rob a team of significant future assets are generally a bad idea.
    There is a so much luck involved in a cup run. You are much better off giving your team as many kicks at the can as possible.

    Thats your philosohphy. But Pitt has been selling draft picks for 8 years and they have 2 Cups. Is that poor asset mgmt?

    There are diff ways to win. Nobody knows who will do well?

    Didd yoy have Vegas coming out of the WEST in 2018?
    How about St.louis coming out of the WEST last yr?

    maybe in hindsight. But most ppl did not have either team.

    Whos coming out of the WEST this year Mr. GM?

  9. Genjutsu says:

    Caleb Jones, William Lagesson.

    That’s just from the roster of a team you’ve assured me sucks at drafting.

    Also this draft is the Marianas trench.

  10. Genjutsu says:

    Miller skates well.

    Tyler less so.

  11. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: That’s exactly how I feel about Gaudreau, Pageau, Athanasiou, Slavin, Arvidsson, Donskoi…

    How do you feel about the Oilers fourth round picks for the last 10 seasons allowing for 5 years from the draft?

    2014 – William Lagesson

    2013 – Jackson Houck, Kyle Platzer

    2011 – Dillon Simpson, Tobias Reider

    2010 – Jeremy Blain

    2009 – Kyle Bigos, Toni Rajala

    2008 -Johann Motin

    2007 – Linus Omark

    2006 – no pick

    2005 – Chris Van de Velde

    2004 – Liam Reddox

    Man, that’s a murderer’s row right there.

    Wouldn’t want to trade any of those guys for a chance to get an established top six forward with more than 500 games to his credit.

    That would be madness!

  12. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar: Carson Focht, the 20 year old forward under a PPG in junior?

    Wait, Benson has now graduated after 4 NHL games but yet you refused to take Quinn Hughes off the list months in to the season?

    Really?Do you not see how fully dishonest this looks?

    That’s the MO.

    I’m not sure why anyone bothers trying to honestly debate Hairlip.

  13. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think Larsson fell off the map when he watched his Dad die and hasn’t recovered.Its a tragedy in all aspects for everyone.

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    What are the on-ice shooting and save percentages?

    If the anomaly in the numbers can be found in those two percentages, then:

    1. Can Larsson do anything about it?
    2. Can Holland?

    Woodguy v2.0: Here is that exact info: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1228707074592268288
    I think Tippett can do something about it.

    I’m curious your rationale for concluding Larsson has fallen off the map when his underlying numbers remain strong. His shot rates and DFF% remain solid but his goal rates and PDO have gone into the shitter.

    You’ve correctly identified his on ice SH% drop, but his on ice SV% has also dropped relative to his own past. His PDO the past 2 seasons has been .963 and .961. Ugly, but is it really his play? I don’t know, but I’m at least hesitating that he’s off the cliff, or the game has passed him by, since he underlying numbers have barely moved.

    Klefbom has also chronically underperformed his shot metrics. Why does he get a pass but Larsson is done? Klefbom has literally only 1 season in his career with a GF% over 47 and a PDO over .990 (16-17). Larsson has been a bit worse than Klefbom these last 2 seasons, but not by that much. And Klefbom’s history goes back longer.

    I don’t believe Dmen control on ice SV%, so it’s a stretch for me to believe they control on ice shooting. I’d lean to a string of bad luck (in front of bad goalies) for both players, but I definitely don’t feel comfortable hitting Larsson with the weight of his on ice percentages while believing Klefbom is doing A-OK.

    In terms of your Twitter post:
    1) What does “Threat” mean? +18 for Larsson/McDavid vs +17 for McDavid only.
    2) Why only with/without McDavid? (110 minutes Larsson/McDavid isn’t a huge sample).
    3) McDavid’s shooting % doubles without Larsson, but xGF only goes from 2.45 to 2.64. Is the increase in shooting % and goals “real”?
    4) This is a stretch, but with Larsson on, it seems like the hottest HD spot is net front to right FO circle. Is it possible Larsson is doing something good there?

    One other thing to add is that Larsson seems to have recovered to decent/normal results in 2020. He certainly should get a little slack for his play immediately after a mid-season return from a broken leg.

  14. ristojalo says:

    Harpers Hair,

    I miss the days when you used to go on and on about Cole Cassels and how he “dominated” McDavid in juniors.

  15. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Carson Focht, the 20 year old forward under a PPG in junior?

    Wait, Benson has now graduated after 4 NHL games but yet you refused to take Quinn Hughes off the list months in to the season?

    Really?Do you not see how fully dishonest this looks?

    I don’t mind if you put Benson back in the AHL if it tickles your fancy.

    The Oiler’s forward prospect depth is atrocious.

    Kole Lind is already ahead of him and was drafted a year later.

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    ristojalo:
    Harpers Hair,

    I miss the days when you used to go on and on about Cole Cassels and how he “dominated” McDavid in juniors.

    He did in one series…so what?

  17. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Carson Focht, the 20 year old forward under a PPG in junior?

    Wait, Benson has now graduated after 4 NHL games but yet you refused to take Quinn Hughes off the list months in to the season?

    Really?Do you not see how fully dishonest this looks?

    Just like you to pick the last guy on the list and ignore the others.

    Talk about dishonesty.

  18. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: How do you feel about the Oilers fourth round picks for the last 10 seasons allowing for 5 years from the draft?

    2014 – William Lagesson

    2013 – Jackson Houck, Kyle Platzer

    2011 – Dillon Simpson, Tobias Reider

    2010 – Jeremy Blain

    2009 – Kyle Bigos, Toni Rajala

    2008 -Johann Motin

    2007 – Linus Omark

    2006 – no pick

    2005 – Chris Van de Velde

    2004 – Liam Reddox

    Man, that’s a murderer’s row right there.

    Wouldn’t want to trade any of those guys for a chance to get an established top six forward with more than 500 games to his credit.

    That would be madness!

    How do I feel about them? Well that’s different than how I would feel about a 4th round pick.

    And how I feel about a 4th round pick also depends upon how many picks I have. In Economics, we call this Marginal Utility.

    My point is that there was an additional cost beyond the cap hit to signing Toffoli (which had gone unmentioned in your comment about re-signing not being a lock). I didn’t mention it in the post, but that cost is actually greater when you are already holding less picks.

    4th round picks do pan out. They are not pocket lint and should not be treated or thought of as such.

    Now perhaps in your choice of phrase you were employing the literary device known as hyperbole.

    Which would in turn be ironic… considering you’ve already taken a commentor on this very thread to task for employing that same device of hyperbole

  19. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: How do I feel about them?Well that’s different than how I would feel about a 4th round pick.

    And how I feel about a 4th round pick also depends upon how many picks I have.In Economics, we call this Marginal Utility.

    My point is that there was an additional cost beyond the cap hit to signing Toffoli.I didn’t mention it in the post, but that cost is actually greater when you are already holding less picks.

    4th round picks do pan out.They are not pocket lint and should not be treated or thought of as such.

    Now perhaps in your choice of phrase you were employing the literary device known as hyperbole.

    Which would in turn be ironic… considering you’ve already taken a commentor on this very thread to task for employing that same device of hyperbole

    I’m not going to go back and show you how few 4th round picks become NHL players because that would be tedious but the fact is it’s far less what your cherry picked list of success would indicate.

    There is just a good a chance of a 5th, 6th or 7th round pick making it so giving up a 4th is tantamount to losing a dime under the bed.

    If you believe it’s a significant cost I am sure I can’t convince you otherwise nor will I try since you’ve already established your narrative.

  20. who says:

    jtblack: Thats your philosohphy.But Pitt has been selling draft picks for 8 years and they have 2Cups. Is that poor asset mgmt?

    There are diff ways to win.Nobody knows who will do well?

    Didd yoy have Vegas coming out of the WEST in 2018?
    How about St.louis coming out of the WEST last yr?

    maybe in hindsight.But most ppl did not have either team.

    Whos coming out of the WEST this year Mr. GM?

    It’s just one man’s opinion.
    I have no idea who’s coming out of the west but if I was a betting man it would probably be a team from the Central.
    I think the Canucks are guilty of going all in too soon, but even if they do get to the cup final, will it be because they acquired Toffoli? Or would they have got there without him?
    I’ll use your last 2 examples.
    Did Tatar help Vegas get to the cup finals?
    Who did St Louis pick up at the deadline that made a significant difference to their team?

  21. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: I’m not going to go back and show you how few 4th round picks become NHL players because that would be tedious but the fact is it’s far less what your cherry picked list of success would indicate.

    I’m not trying to establish a list of success. I’m just demonstrating what we all know… 4th round picks aren’t worthless. They represent a cost and a value. One that wasn’t included in your accounting. Are you that butt hurt about missing it? Or about me trying to establish the full cost for the record, that you feel it necessary to demean my point?

    What exactly do you hope to achieve here at LT’s, Andrew?

    Do you despise LT so much that you won’t be happy till you’ve completely destroyed the comments section of his blog?

    Do you hate all of us strangers so much that you’re not happy until we’re all rage posting against you?

    What exactly are you trying to accomplish on this blog?

  22. duct tape and foil says:

    Was just browsing Athanasiou’s stats and this came up:

    SH% 5.56. SV% 85.89. PDO 0.914

    That has got to be some kind of historic PDO curse and you could not buy much lower than this. He’s my target if Old Dutch doesn’t hate him.

  23. duct tape and foil says:

    Why does anyone reply to the magic troll HH? He has no intension of making any positive contribution. I just skip right over his spam. Must have a pretty pathetic life to waste his time with this act.

  24. Dac189 says:

    But isn’t that exactly the point he’s making? That any team can win. So it’s better to just be in the playoffs more often than to go all in 1 year

  25. Munny says:

    I wonder about this relationship too. Not a happy history there.

  26. Dac189 says:

    Might as well include Caleb Jones 2015

    And it doesn’t really count but Ethan Bear 2015 5th round.

  27. wolf8888 says:

    Harpers Hair,

    he had 18 goals in 58 games. how is 7 in 23 flourishing by comparison?

  28. €√¥£€^$ says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Why does anyone reply to the magic troll HH?He has no intension of making any positive contribution. I just skip right over his spam. Must have a pretty pathetic life to waste his time with this act.

    It is very strange to me as well. I thought this was supposed to be an Oilers blog.

    Oh well…I guess he has more things that are more interesting to discuss than some of us actual Oiler fans.

    Good nite all!

  29. Slocanoil says:

    Harpers Hair,

    So then you think he has been thriving in LA? Your not even going to round up to 26?

  30. Lowetide says:

    The contract negotiation iirc was not an easy one. He has been playing in bad luck this season, a rebound is likely.

  31. Lowetide says:

    who: It’s just one man’s opinion.
    I have no idea who’s coming out of the west but if I was a betting man it would probably be a team from the Central.
    I think the Canucks are guilty of going all in too soon, but even if they do get to the cup final, will it be because they acquired Toffoli? Or would they have got there without him?
    I’ll use your last 2 examples.
    Did Tatar help Vegas get to the cup finals?
    Who did St Louis pick up at the deadline that made a significant difference to their team?

    I think the Pacific Division teams have an interesting dilemma. Because some team from the Pacific is going to make the final four (probably) and the path could be fairly easy compared to a tougher division.

  32. who says:

    Lowetide: I think the Pacific Division teams have an interesting dilemma. Because some team from the Pacific is going to make the final four (probably) and the path could be fairly easy compared to a tougher division.

    I think you’re right.
    I just don’t think a rental like Toffoli makes a big enough difference to justify the price paid.
    I don’t think a Pageau, or a Kreider, is going to put the Oilers over the top. It may improve their odds by a few percentage points, but the cost is just too high.
    I would look for a young player with term. At least 2 more years after this one. Or a cheaper rental. Someone you can acquire for a 3rd or 4th round pick.

  33. Wilde says:

    Bakersfield Condors vs. San Jose Barracuda; February 16th, 2020; first run

    Gambardella – Esposito – Currie
    Koules – Malone – Peluso
    Stukel – McLeod – Maksimov
    Vesey – Starrett – Day

    Lowe – Bouchard
    Samorukov – Persson
    Manning – Kulevich

    after 20

    10CF-25CA
    7FF-14FA
    1GF-2GA

    Top F: Esposito (1.21 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 1 shot assist
    1 assist
    7CF-2CA
    5FF-1FA
    1GF-0GA

    Top D: Persson (-0.10 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 0 shot assists
    4CF-4CA
    3FF-3FA
    0GF-1GA

    after 40

    18CF-39CA
    12FF-21FA
    1GF-3GA

    Top F: Esposito (1.41 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 4 shot assists
    1 assist
    11CF-5CA
    8FF-3FA
    1GF-0GA

    Top D: Bouchard (-0.09 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
    9CF-17CA
    7FF-9FA
    1GF-0GA

    game totals

    30CF-59CA
    18FF-33FA
    2GF-4GA

    Top F: Esposito (1.11 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 4 shot assists
    1 assist
    12CF-9CA
    8FF-7FA
    1GF-1GA

    Top D: Bouchard (0.22 Game Score)
    4 shot attempts, 2 shot assists
    16CF-24CA
    11FF-15FA
    2GF-0GA

    help

  34. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Wilde,

    Thanks for this, as always Wilde!

    4 rookie prospects + Skinner + maybe Persson as future players for the Oil. Next year, Lavoie + maybe Berglund, maybe Niemelainen and Rasanen. Yikes.

    This is why this team must hang on to as many of their 2020 picks as possible. Hopefully Holland can entice 3 or 4 really good NCAA players to the Org and not the Espositos and Starrettts of the crop.

    Help indeed….

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: Wasn’t there talk last deadline and the one before that teams were no longer paying a premium for rentals? That wisdom has been shot out a window it seems (if I’m remembering correctly).

    The amount of 1st being spend on rentals has dropped considerably.

    No firsts have been traded (yet) for a pure rental.

    All the 1sts have gone for players with term.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: I’m a little confused… so the coaching plan has been different when Larsson is on the ice?Or everyone changes their game?

    My guess is that EDM takes more point shots with Larsson on the ice since:

    -there are less rush shots due to less dzone exits with possession
    -poor play selection by Larsson with the puck in the ozone

    The first point being the main one.

    I’m sure there are other factors not coming to mind or that I don’t know.

  37. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The amount of 1st being spend on rentals has dropped considerably.

    No firsts have been traded (yet) for a pure rental.

    All the 1sts have gone for players with term.

    Yeah fair enough.

    Though Hall (40 game rental) did return a 1st, rightfully.

    And it would be easy to argue that Madden and a 2nd for Tofolli is a 1st round quality return.

  38. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jp,

    – Yeah the broken foot thingy at the beginning of the season isn’t just some thingy. Highlighting his deficiencies and concluding he’s no good without acknowledging the effect that the injury has had seems to be missing the point

    – Plus hes now consistently playing with Klef again which helps rather than the various partners he had when he first came back.

  39. Seismic Source says:

    I am getting the most peculiar adds lately.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra: They traded Foote for the privilege of downgrading from Miller to Coleman.Now it is true, that they can’t afford Miller and they can afford Coleman, but Miller is the better player, and they don’t need Coleman anyway.

    Foote is a good prospect.A first round pick is a first round pick.Two playoffs of Coleman isn’t worth that, not on this or any other planet.

    I know he has 20 goals, but he isn’t a “20 goal scorer.”

    I’m going to disagree with this.

    Coleman has some of the best defensive metrics in the league and will play with Cirelli vs the best.

    What they gave up to get him will mostly be re-couped when they move Johnson/Palat/Killorn next summer ro make cap room.

  41. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    jp,

    – Yeah the broken foot thingy at the beginning of the season isn’t just some thingy. Highlighting his deficiencies and concluding he’s no good without acknowledging the effect that the injury has had seems to be missing the point

    – Plus hes now consistently playing with Klef again which helps rather than the various partners he had when he first came back.

    Broken fib, but I agree that the injury should be discussed. The reason he came in this year lighter was to improve foot speed and mobility. Getting that injury most likely put him back to last year in terms of foot speed and mobility, maybe even further back.

    In terms of D partners
    Klefbom 455 mins 13 gf 20 ga
    Russell 93 mins 0 gf 3 ga
    Nurse 54 mins 2 gf 2 ga
    Lagesson 21 mins 1gf 2 ga

    As Woodguy has showed, Larssons goal metrics are not good up and down the lineup. I have seen what Sportloqiq tracks for Dmen and numbers for some players, but not any Oilers. I would love to see what they are showing for Larsson.

  42. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?

    https://theathletic.com/1612168/2020/02/18/lowetide-for-oilers-kailer-yamamoto-and-leon-draisaitl-first-impressions-are-long-forgotten-why-not-jesse-puljujarvi/

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: We know that some teams shelter players by playing them against the elites on the second half of elites shift as shown by the athletic guys
    On the fly shifts against the other teams top players where they are more tired and looking to change
    I don’t think TOI numbers have as much value as you think it does

    Good thing we have Face Offs/60 vs every QoC on puckiq then as it shows who is getting the OTF shifts.

    “hey look, Cirelli leads TBY in FO/60 vs Elites”

    Aston-Reese is right in the mix in PIT, while Crosby gets the most.

    Its almost like we put in FO/60 for exactly that reason!

    Also,

    Sean is working on our Shift Start database which will allow the users at Puckiq to sort results by Ozone FO, NZ FO, Dzone FO and OTF shifts.

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: I’m curious your rationale for concluding Larsson has fallen off the map when his underlying numbers remain strong. His shot rates and DFF% remain solid but his goal rates and PDO have gone into the shitter.

    You’ve correctly identified his on ice SH% drop, but his on ice SV% has also dropped relative to his own past. His PDO the past 2 seasons has been .963 and .961. Ugly, but is it really his play? I don’t know, but I’m at least hesitating that he’s off the cliff, or the game has passed him by, since he underlying numbers have barely moved.

    Klefbom has also chronically underperformed his shot metrics. Why does he get a pass but Larsson is done? Klefbom has literally only 1 season in his career with a GF% over 47 and a PDO over .990 (16-17). Larsson has been a bit worse than Klefbom these last 2 seasons, but not by that much. And Klefbom’s history goes back longer.

    I don’t believe Dmen control on ice SV%, so it’s a stretch for me to believe they control on ice shooting. I’d lean to a string of bad luck (in front of bad goalies) for both players, but I definitely don’t feel comfortable hitting Larsson with the weight of his on ice percentages while believing Klefbom is doing A-OK.

    In terms of your Twitter post:
    1) What does “Threat” mean? +18 for Larsson/McDavid vs +17 for McDavid only.
    2) Why only with/without McDavid? (110 minutes Larsson/McDavid isn’t a huge sample).
    3) McDavid’s shooting % doubles without Larsson, but xGF only goes from 2.45 to 2.64. Is the increase in shooting % and goals “real”?
    4) This is a stretch, but with Larsson on, it seems like the hottest HD spot is net front to right FO circle. Isit possible Larsson is doing something good there?

    One other thing to add is that Larsson seems to have recovered to decent/normal results in 2020. He certainly should get a little slack for his play immediately after a mid-season return from a broken leg.

    You’re right that he’s has an awful PDO, but the fact that the shitty ONSH% follows him from forward to forward is a big sign that its something that happens when he’s on the ice.

    His Goals Against are fine this year.

    Goals For are going to die with everyone he plays with.

    I think Tippett and Playfair could identify why this happens and try to fix it.

    My guess is the biggest factor is lack of zone exits leading to rush chances plays a big part, EDM scores a lot of goals off the rush.

    When a player’s Actual Goal Share results deviate so much from the underlying stats for over 2000 minutes you can’t just expect regression to start any minute, you need to try to figure out why…..imo

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yup, missed Hall.

    I don’t consider Madden and a 2nd = 1st

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