When I Get to the Border

The Edmonton Oilers had a shocking weekend that resulted in waking up on holiday Monday in first place. This city was rocking last night and left no wakeup call for this morning. What a night in Raleigh for this hard working team. Up next: The Bruins. No problem. Apparently.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It was reactionary’: Oilers’ Zack Kassian addresses alleged kick; Lightning depth strikes; and Kailer Yamamoto’s big game
  • Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Why Connor McDavid’s injury is unlikely to alter Ken Holland’s trade deadline plan for the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We want to take it as a challenge’: Oilers survive first game without McDavid as room for improvement remains
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trying to make sense of Connor McDavid’s injury and Darnell Nurse’s new contract with Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Faced with uncertainty, Oilers hedge their bet on Darnell Nurse
  • Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20

OILERS AFTER 59 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 22-31-6, 50 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 32-19-8, 72 points; goal differential +14
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 24-31-4, 52 points; goal differential -34
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 24-29-6, 54 points; goal differential -25
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 32-21-6, 70 points; goal differential +5

Oh what a feeling, what a rush! Oilers are on pace for 97 points, that’s a sure playoff spot. A reminder, I had them finishing with 88 points. This Oilers team has 23 games to get 18 points in order to make me look like a fool. How about you?

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Current 10 games: 6-3-0

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-6-0, four points; goal differential -17
  • Oilers in February 2017: 4-4-0, eight points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in February 2018: 1-6-1, three points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in February 2019: 1-5-2, four points; goal differential -12
  • Oilers in February 2020: 5-3-0, 10 points; goal differential +3

Such a sweet February for the Oilers. The club won two weekend games by getting big stops, forechecking well, winning special teams and playing well at evens. What else is there?

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-3-0, 10 points in eight games

OILERS 2019-20

I have the new 2020 draft item ready to go tomorrow, for the first time I’m not certain the first-round pick is absolutely stapled to the floor. I’m all about keeping the first rounder, but if the Oilers win the Pacific it’s pick No. 24 or No. 25. All numbers five on five unless otherwise noted and everything comes from Natural Stat Trick.

LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 12:14, going 13-14 Corsi, 5-8 shots, 0-3 goals and 2-4 HDSC. Spent 8:22 against Aho, which is the seven stages of hell (nine if there’s overtime).

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a shot, two HDSC and a takeaway. Gave a step to Aho on the second Carolina goal, the set play executed perfectly by the Hurricanes. Tough beat. Leon Draisaitl scored a goal (had two assists but not at five on five), one shot and won six of 15 in the faceoff circle. Draisaitl is on pace for 132 points. Crazy. His overtime backhand pass would be discussed in hushed tones for decades except he seems to do it every damned game. Leon is in the mother of all zones. Kailer Yamamoto scored on the power play, two shots five on five. He was covering Aho on the third Carolina goal, but covering Aho and stopping Aho are two different things. Yamamoto was unable to stop the rocket from the Finn.

LINE 2 Tyler Benson-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 11:01, going 7-7 Corsi, 5-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-0 HDSC.

Tyler Benson grabbed his first NHL assist on a nice play with Archibald. He also had a shot and did some good work. I can’t imagine he stays up when everyone is healthy but he’s showing well. Riley Sheahan had two shots, two HDSC, GV, TK, and won six of 14 on the dot. He had one 10-bell chance late that hit the post. Josh Archibald had the kind of night Fernando Pisani was known for 15 years ago. He scored once (another in overtime), two shots, one HDSC, GV, TK, three hits and drove opponents crazy. He drew a penalty but wasn’t credited. His play that led to his first goal, stopping the puck from exiting the zone, was outstanding.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 8:37, going 6-6 Corsi, 4-2 shots and 1-2 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira picked up an assist on a pass to Leon, took a late penalty 200 feet from his own net. Had one shot. Colby Cave also took a late penalty, won two of five in the faceoff circle. Low event player, which has advantages. Patrick Russell had one shot, HDSC and three hits. His scoring opportunity was excellent, I very much hope he scores a goal this season.

LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 7:37, going 7-7 Corsi, 1-4 shots, no goals and 3-1 HDSC.

Markus Granlund took a solid hit and got the puck out several times. Gaetan Haas had a shot, HDSC, GV, won two of eight in the faceoff circle. I swear he should be called boomerang. He shoots the puck toward the opposition’s end and it bounces off five things and heads back in the other zone. I like him as a player. Alex Chiasson had a shot, HDSC, TK, plus a great chance on the power play. It was point blank and I was shocked it didn’t get through. If we were talking baseball, I’d say “Alex has been hitting ropes lately, but they keep finding leather” and then mention some of those line drives are going to land soon. He’s due for a two-goal game.

PAIRING ONE Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 18:25, going 14-12 Corsi, 6-6 shots, 0-2 goals and 6-3 HDSC. Spent 7:43 against the Aho line on a five skater hard match.

Oscar Klefbom had shot, GV, two blocked shots and a power play assist. Played 30:57, or basically half the game, mobile, intelligent. Adam Larsson had two shots, one HDSC, played over 2:50 on the PK. It was a very physical game, Larsson’s wheelhouse. Both men were on the ice for the first Carolina goal but were in good position. Both men stood up at center on the second goal, Klefbom unable to offer support to Nuge as a streaking Aho (that’s a phrase, eh?) was bound for glory on a set play.

PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 16:33, going 16-12 Corsi, 10-4 shots, 2-1 goals and 3-2 HDSC. Played 4:33 against Aho line.

Darnell Nurse had an assist, two shots, two blocked shots, and played about three minutes on the PK. He made a fantastic defensive play in overtime that could best be described as the best stop, drop and roll in human history. Ethan Bear had three shots, a giveaway and a blocked shot. He got beat wide by Svechnikov on the third goal, damn near recovered by the skill on that Carolina line is amazing. Nurse was unable to interrupt the bullet pass to Aho. I honestly don’t think either man (or Yamamoto) did anything specifically wrong. Sometimes you have to give the other man his due. If you look at the play again, notice how little room Bear gave, and notice how precise the pass. Not sure that play could be defended once Svechnikov gained a step. Honestly.

PAIRING THREE Caleb Jones and Matt Benning played 8:51, going 4-10 Corsi, 1-6 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC.

Caleb Jones was low event, one giveaway and he skated miles. Matt Benning drew a penalty, blocked a shot, passed well.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 27 of 30, .900. He stopped two breakaways in overtime and stood tall against a very talented Carolina team.

JOSH ARCHIBALD

When Ken Holland talked about his summer acquisitions (James Neal, Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan, Markus Granlund, etc) he said something like “the NHL Guide and Record Book says they can score some goals” and I rolled my eyes.

Now, I’m not someone who disregards Holland’s resume or disrespects his accomplishments. I respect his success, both in Stanley Cups and in survival (in business, there are times when survival is success) living in a world with 31 jobs available.

But looking in the guide for goals? Well, after 59 games, James Neal has 19 goals, Josh Archibald 9, Riley Sheahan 7, Gaetan Haas 5, Markus Granlund 3.

Those names replaced the following from last year’s team (with last year’s goal total): Milan Lucic 6, Kyle Brodziak 6, Ty Rattie 4, Jesse Puljujarvi 4, Tobias Rieder 0.

And there’s 23 games left.

The signing of Archibald appears to have been truly inspired. On pace to score a baker’s dozen, Archibald plays 10:20 a night at five on five (scoring .56 goals per 60), 2:15 a night on the PK (scoring 1.08 goals per 60) and six seconds on the power play. He has speed and can play up and down the lineup.

The earliest season NST provides for Fernando Pisani is 2007-08, age 30. It isn’t their fault, that’s where these numbers began. Pisani played 11:28 a night at five on five (scoring .75 goals per 60), 2:29 a night on the PK (scoring no goals) and 1:49 a night on the PP (scoring 2.36 goals per 60).

So, when comparing Archibald to Pisani, the power-play usage isn’t there but in spirit Archibald fills the definition. When I say ‘we’re looking for the Pisani’ I mean someone who can play a depth role and still be productive offensively. Archibald fits that bill. I also mean someone who can mentor youths and help them develop (Pisani helped Stoll, Torres, Stortini, others). Perhaps we’re seeing that with Benson.

We aren’t there yet. Pisani as an Oiler reached mythical heights, scoring the second most famous shorthanded goal in team history. Archibald has many of the elements that made Pisani such a perfect fit. I’ll tell you though, that sequence where he secured the puck before the blue line, fed Benson and then drove to the net was a Pisani play. Ken Holland did well signing Josh Archibald, and needs to sign him to an extension. It’s a compelling story to follow.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re on the air today, starting at 10, TSN1260. Why? Because we want to be there, talking Oilers. WHO would take a day off when talking Oilers is an option? Not me! I’d be there seven days a week but they won’t let me in! (I kid). Tom Gazzola from the Pre and Post and the television will join us at 10:20 to talk about the weekend games, and Jason Gregor will pop in at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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445 Responses to "When I Get to the Border"

« Older Comments
  1. Bank Shot says:

    Dimitri Filipovic ✔ @DimFilipovic

    That deal the Canucks just made is the type of trade you make when you’re one player away from winning a Stanley Cup, not one player away from making the playoffs

  2. duct tape and foil says:

    Munny:
    Once again, why would he turn down free money?

    If his career truly is in jeopardy, he will have no problem finding a doctor who will say so.

    Andrew Luck situations are so rare in the NHL (and even in the NFL), that really you’re grasping at straws here if you think this will be the way it works out.

    KRusty is known as fearless warrior.The outcome you are describing fits neither the player nor the situation.

    How is it free money? He has to play and take the risk. The only “free money” is agreeing with the team to take the bonus and then not play. The other option involves risk and Russell may have $25 million reasons to say no mas and $1.5 million reasons to say yes. What good is all that money if you can’t tie your shoes at 40.

    I’m not saying this is a lock, but it is plausible.

  3. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers:
    100% – the Oilers may never have an easier route out of the Pacific. That first would be no better than #27 overall – quite expendable for a playoff run.

    If a 1st and Samoukov gets you a top-line winger with another year on his ticket like Tatar orPalmieri then I’m all for making that move.

    What I mean to say is: The re-build is finally over!

    I don’t mind trading that package, but not for either of those two. Vancouver traded less for JT Miller, a 25 year old with 4 years left on his deal at a reasonable $5.25M. Your package is nearly twice the payment for a 29 year old with 1 year left? That’s not good asset management. At all.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: The crazy thing though is that when you look at all the offensive rates, Larsson shows better than Benning in all of them. In things like generation of corsi, fenwick, shots, and scoring chances. All higher rates except actual goals.

    Clearly Benning is better offensively, but it creates kind of a quandary.

    Are the metrics saying Larsson is unlucky, or are they saying they aren’t reliable?

    I don’t think Larsson has been amazing by any means, but I’m also not sure he’s the smoking gun.

    His 18/19 was bad, real bad, but Klefbom has also been negative in goal differential in every season since 15/16 besides 16/17.

    In 17/18 Larsson was a +8 and Klefbom was -15 for instance. We can state that Larsson hasn’t been helping, but Klefbom has also had poor ES results for four out of the last five years.

    I think the problem is that the Oilers don’t have a real dependable first pairing guy that can play defense and also make a pass. I’m not sure swapping out Larsson with another comparable player is going to move the needle.

    I think the Oilers need to acquire a bonafide first pairing defenceman to stop the leaking.

    I think Larsson fell off the map when he watched his Dad die and hasn’t recovered. Its a tragedy in all aspects for everyone.

    Larsson was a pretty good player before, especially in 16/17. 17/18 was “ok” was 16/17 was his pinnacle with EDM and 15/16 was his pinnacle with NJD.

    Klefbom is decent and nothing to sneeze at, same as Nurse.

    Neither is a 1LD anchor, nor will they be, but both are the only 2 LHD you can put out vs the other team’s best on a regular basis on this team and will be next year too.

    After next year we don’t know, but it behooves this team to keep both for now.

    I disagree that EDM need a “#1 stud Dman” or similar.

    EDM has 97 and 29 and just need competence behind them, talent with them, and slightly above average goalering imo.

    #1 Dmen can be great for generating postiitve goal share for everyone they play with, but there are what…..10 of them in the league and impossible to acquire except through drafting and luck?……..and their results fluctuate a much as anyone else so it ebs and flows.

    EDM needs to just build depth of “good players”

    Right now the biggest drag plays 2RD.

    Its a goddamn tragedy and not fair to Adam at all, but its true.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: They didn’t have to give up Bradmer Cockshutt so that’s good.

    LAK asked that Dylan Blujus to be on the table, but Benning would walk at that ask.

  6. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I was at the draft in Vancouver.
    When the Canucks made the JT Miller trade and it was almost unanimous that it was a dumb trade for Vancouver.
    Benning trying to secure his job.
    Which at the end of summer he was given a 3 year extension.
    The Bolts were in cap hell. Yet, Benning gave up a 1st.
    Now, a few months later and the trade is seen as a clear win for Vancouver?

    Is this just revisionist thinking?

  7. defmn says:

    Kurt Leavins
    @KurtLeavins
    ·
    13m
    Toffoli will undoubtably help the Canucks although I really felt that 1) Their biggest need was on the blueline and 2) I don’t think a team should make this deal if you don’t think you can come out of the West.

    • Genjutsu says:

      Looking at their cap situation and how open the West is this year I like going for it now.

      It may come back to bite them if this draft is as deep as many are saying it is.

  8. who says:

    defmn: That, right there, may be the defining comment to differentiate Chiarelli from Holland.

    Yep.
    Just got back from watching Islanders at Arizona live. That Barzal is worth the price of admission.
    Man, Chiarelli was bad at trading.

  9. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They’re two great tastes that taste great together.

    I agree with you about Larsson.

    I’ve given Holland a hard time for some old timey GM maneuvers like the Chiasson and Kassian contracts, yet he has done some really nice work in bringing in cheap bottom six players like Sheahan and Archie. Hiring Tippett was a brilliant selection as well.

    An innovative GM would see what you’re seeing and notice that with a year left on the contract, there’s no time like the present to move a hard nosed right shot defenseman than before the deadline. Larsson’s maximum value relative to contract status is right now, today. As Leadfarmer mentioned, he’s not a player you want as he ages with his slow boots.

    Ideally, you’d move Larsson for a scoring winger.

    Alternatively, you’d be as Willis alluded to with Doug Wilson the year he moved Douglas Murray, a buyer and seller at the same time.

    FYI, I remember you laughing your ass off that Wilson was able to get two seconds for the corpse of Douglas Murray.

    Let’s say you could trade Larsson for a first and a prospect… (I know but look at the market) now the Oilers first or the newly obtained one is in play to hopefully get a scoring winger with term.

    • Durag says:

      It would be such a historically Maple Leafs move to trade for Larsson right now. C’mon, give us Kapanen!

    • Genjutsu says:

      Who plays 2RD this year?

      Flushing this season psychologically would be poisonous to Leon and Connor given the the rehabilitation of the knee and Leon’s emergence.

      Sometimes you have to think beyond the material.

  10. duct tape and foil says:

    Bank Shot:
    Dimitri Filipovic @DimFilipovic

    That deal the Canucks just made is the type of trade you make when you’re one player away from winning a Stanley Cup, not one player away from making the playoffs

    Bloody hell is that ever true. What are they thinking? They are as likely to miss as make it and may be entirely absent from the top of one of the best drafts in a while.

    If I’m Old Dutch I’m waiting by the door at closing time to see what’s left at bargain rates. The prices right now are crazy, but if TML want Benning for Kapanen, let it fly.

  11. N64 says:

    Ryan: An innovative GM would see what you’re seeing and notice that with a year left on the contract, there’s no time like the present to move a hard nosed right shot defenseman than before the deadline

    Or after a playoff run.

    • Ryan says:

      I disagree.

      I would estimate the market for Larsson is higher now than this up coming summer.

      In part, this is because the acquiring team gets him for this up coming playoffs and next year.

      As well, selling now leverages the paucity of options. In the summer, there are UFA’s available and more flexibility with trades.

      However, Vatanen might be on the market soon as a pure rental.

      • Faustkarz says:

        But is the difference in market price between now and the summer higher or lower than Larsson’s end of season value to us today.

        Long term team cost can short term..can you really sell it to the group that trading our #1 RD while gearing up to the playoff a is the right play when in reality all you might be gaining is ~3rd round pick in value difference?

        Then you have the reprocussions caused by the new gap ie rushing Bouchard up and/or playing Russell?

        Is the point of depth, even at the cost of cap space, not to be to have a deep enough team that you do not need to buy at the deadline because you have a solid D lineup?

        Sell in the summer after a hopefully good playoff run which will be worth the cost in difference (nvm we haven’t clinched anything)

        I think a lot of posters believe int this magical year where everything aligns and we can buy everything and go for this deep run..that is the 4x O/U parlay GMing I do not think works, small calculated bets and improvements will get us the cup

  12. Reja says:

    Bank Shot:
    Dimitri Filipovic ✔ @DimFilipovic

    That deal the Canucks just made is the type of trade you make when you’re one player away from winning a Stanley Cup, not one player away from making the playoffs

    But they didn’t give up Rafferty.

  13. achotai says:

    Flames nation had an article up mentioning how Milan Lucic had considered retirement back in November. That got me thinking that is this not a dangerous aspect of the Lucic trade for Edmonton? If Lucic retires next season say, Edmonton would eat some recapture penalty due to his front loaded contract… I believe it would be $5 million divided by years left on his contract in cap penalty.

    • Gerta Rauss says:

      The Lucic contract was signed under the current CBA and is not subject to recapture penalties

  14. duct tape and foil says:

    N64: Or after a playoff run.

    Exactly. Seems to me that we are now in the window where a guy who suffered a broken leg in G1 might be finally feeling near 100%. Looked that way to me this weekend with Lars moving better than I’ve seen all year and bringing plenty of snarl. Sure you can trade Lars for a real nice winger, but then our RD is Bear, Benning and Jones.

    We finally have a passable RD group and people want to trade away our only veteran depth. One minute after this innovative trade you are looking for his replacement.

  15. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    What are the on-ice shooting and save percentages?

    If the anomaly in the numbers can be found in those two percentages, then:

    1. Can Larsson do anything about it?
    2. Can Holland?

  16. Durag says:

    Oh. Boeser’s ribs are broken, so the Canucks did not get better!

  17. Munny says:

    duct tape and foil: How is it free money? He has to play and take the risk. The only “free money” is agreeing with the team to take the bonus and then not play. The other option involves risk and Russell may have $25 million reasons to say no mas and $1.5 million reasons to say yes. What good is all that money if you can’t tie your shoes at 40.

    I’m not saying this is a lock, but it is plausible.

    The free money is by being on the LTIR. If his next concussion presents that much danger, that’s where he will be, and his agent will make sure of it.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    That’s a lot to give up for Tyler Toffoli.
    I almost wish we had something to sell

  19. Munny says:

    Durag:
    Oh. Boeser’s ribs are broken, so the Canucks did not get better!

    Reeks of desperation. Is there a clock that ticks in Jim’s office?

  20. Munny says:

    Makes you wonder what the Flames were offering for Toffoli, if the Dys had to pay such a premium.

  21. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Reja: But they didn’t give up Rafferty.

    That would have been just plain stupid. Everyone on this blog knows that Rafferty is a much better prospect than Tyler Madden. Raffy has got to be one of the Dy’s top prospects, am I right? I don’t believe we have ever talked about Madden at all but Raffy comes up All The Time. Dy’s killed it with this trade, just like they always do. Best GM in the league … and it’s not even close. Gotta figure the Dy’s are favorites for Stanley at this point.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    My goodness that is a massive haul for LAK for Toffoli.

    I was hoping to get him, as a tier 3 rental, for something like a 2nd round pick.

    We’ve been told by HH how great a prospect Madden is and he is having a massive season at NorthEastern as a 20 year old.

    I would NOT have been happy with giving up a 2nd and Lavoie or Broberg for Toffoli.

    Its going to be tough for Holland to add any sort of legit top 6 rental – not at these prices.

    A hockey trade would get the job done but that’s tough this type of year.

    Going to likely be a very complimentary depth player or two added given the prices.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: OP, You are correct about the AHL playoff rule. NHL deadline day also functions as a deadline for AHL playoff eligibility. The NHL CBA limit on 4 unique players being non-emergency recalled until the ahl team is eliminated also kicks in on the date.

    https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/and-now-you-know/2018/1/30/16944594/2018-nhl-trade-deadline-how-does-it-all-work-toronto-maple-leafs

    At some point after the 2013 abolition of the old May “clear day” playoff rule they added a new ahl playoff rule tied to the NHL deadline. So the reporting of the reason for the paper tx is 100% accurate as you believed.

    Great – thanks for your research and for clarifying.

  24. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I disagree that EDM need a “#1 stud Dman” or similar.

    EDM has 97 and 29 and just need competence behind them, talent with them, and slightly above average goalering imo.

    #1 Dmen can be great for generating postiitve goal share for everyone they play with, but there are what…..10 of them in the league and impossible to acquire except through drafting and luck?……..and their results fluctuate a much as anyone else so it ebs and flows.

    EDM needs to just build depth of “good players”

    I mean it’s possible to win that way we have seen. Hurricanes in 06 and Penguins in 16-17 after Letang got wrecked.

    But out of the 14 Cup Winners since 05-06, 11 of them had that number 1 guy. Seems like it makes winning a lot easier.

    I think as long as Kelfbom is the Oilers best defenceman, they will struggle with consistency.

  25. Victoria Oil says:

    leadfarmer,

    The Nucks got a guy who is on pace to score 13 points for the rest of the season in exchange for a 2nd round pick, a prospect with an NHLE of 44 and a guy on pace to score 2 more points this season

    I hope KH is not that desperate.

  26. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    My goodness that is a massive haul for LAK for Toffoli.

    I was hoping to get him, as a tier 3 rental, for something like a 2nd round pick.

    We’ve been told by HH how great a prospect Madden is and he is having a massive season at NorthEastern as a 20 year old.

    I would NOT have been happy with giving up a 2nd and Lavoie or Broberg for Toffoli.

    Its going to be tough for Holland to add any sort of legit top 6 rental – not at these prices.

    A hockey trade would get the job done but that’s tough this type of year.

    Going to likely be a very complimentary depth player or two added given the prices.

    It’s a massive haul, but you have to keep things in perspective … the Dys just punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup. As it stands, the First Place Oil might as well just pick up there skates and head home. Season over.

  27. Cassandra says:

    The Coleman and Toffoli deals are remarkably stupid for the acquiring teams.

    Shocking really.

  28. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot: I mean it’s possible to win that way we have seen. Hurricanes in 06 and Penguins in 16-17 after Letang got wrecked.

    But out of the 14 Cup Winners since 05-06, 11 of them had that number 1 guy. Seems like it makes winning a lot easier.

    I think as long as Kelfbom is the Oilers best defenceman, they will struggle with consistency.

    Who were the 11?

    Not doubting, just asling

  29. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Cassandra:
    The Coleman and Toffoli deals are remarkably stupid for the acquiring teams.

    Shocking really.

    You seem like a really nice person.

  30. Side says:

    This would have been a big haul for the Canucks to give up in the BBR (Before Brogan Rafferty) period. But, as I mentioned before, prospects and trade picks have little value to the Canucks with Rafferty in the system now. Rafferbees is the end all be all. He is their nuclear weapon and the Maddens of the world are but stones and spears.

    At this point the Canucks are just trying to be humble and modest, giving the appearance that they are still trying to build a team like everyone else. In truth their plan going forward is just to reach the cap floor until Raffearty arrives and they sign him to a max contract. It will be the greatest value signing we will ever witness.

  31. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack: Who were the 11?

    Not doubting, just asling

    Kings, Bruins, Red Wings, Ducks, Capitals, Blues, Penguins with Letang. Some of them won more than once.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I was at the draft in Vancouver.
    When the Canucks made the JT Miller trade and it was almost unanimous that it was a dumb trade for Vancouver.
    Benning trying to secure his job.
    Which at the end of summer he was given a 3 year extension.
    The Bolts were in cap hell.Yet, Benning gave up a 1st.
    Now, a few months later and the trade is seen as a clear win for Vancouver?

    Is this just revisionist thinking?

    No question some of it is revisionist thinking given how good Miller has been.

    I also think its been a reset in thinking “a 1st is ok to give up for a top 6 player with term and a good contract”

    You are trying like hell to draft future top 6 players with your 1sts, and getting one, in their prime, cost controlled for 4 years is good business and its a failure in evaluating the deal fairly at the time which is the disconnect (I was one of those who didn’t like it)

    I thought Benning had more leverage than to give up his 2020 first in a uber deep draft when his core is in their early 20’s.

    I don’t know if I was right and what the other bidders (if any) were offering.

    Benning was trying to save his job, and it looks like he did that, but its also a reasonable deal from the VAN side…especially due to controlled cost of Miller and the term he had left.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    What are the on-ice shooting and save percentages?

    If the anomaly in the numbers can be found in those two percentages, then:

    1. Can Larsson do anything about it?
    2. Can Holland?

    Here is that exact info: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1228707074592268288

    I think Tippett can do something about it.

  34. jp says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I was at the draft in Vancouver.
    When the Canucks made the JT Miller trade and it was almost unanimous that it was a dumb trade for Vancouver.
    Benning trying to secure his job.
    Which at the end of summer he was given a 3 year extension.
    The Bolts were in cap hell.Yet, Benning gave up a 1st.
    Now, a few months later and the trade is seen as a clear win for Vancouver?

    Is this just revisionist thinking?

    A big factor I think is that JT Miller hit. When the Canucks traded for him his career highs were 23 goals and 58 points.

    Now he’s a PPG player (currently 1 goal and 1 point shy of his career highs with 23 games to play).

    They traded for a guy who’d just put up 47 points and averaged 51 in the previous 4 seasons. Now they have a 30 goal, 80 point clear cut 1st liner.

    Not exactly revisionist thinking but what’s happened since the trade changes the equation.

  35. jtblack says:

    Cassandra:
    The Coleman and Toffoli deals are remarkably stupid for the acquiring teams.

    Shocking really.

    Hi Cassandra!

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: I mean it’s possible to win that way we have seen. Hurricanes in 06 and Penguins in 16-17 after Letang got wrecked.

    But out of the 14 Cup Winners since 05-06, 11 of them had that number 1 guy. Seems like it makes winning a lot easier.

    I think as long as Kelfbom is the Oilers best defenceman, they will struggle with consistency.

    I think Nurse and Klefbom are tied for ability, but their best Dman might be Bear right now. No shit.

    Klef and Nurse do things very differently but the results are very close.

    Both have warts and do things that piss people off while also doing good things.

    There is no question that winning with a legit OMG #1 Dman is easier.

    He boosts GF% for all 4 lines when he plays with them, that’s why they’re so valuable.

    Top forwards can only win their own line’s minutes, whereas a #1Dman can help all 4 lines win theirs minutes….especially vs Elite comp.

    I just think chasing one is a fool’s errand as they are near impossible to get outside drafting them.

    • Faustkarz says:

      Is #1C’s value compared to a #1D their difference in TOI since your 4 line argument could be comparable to 3-pairs of defencemen in regards to boosting score effects?

      Then you have to ask, who boosts score effects more WOWY? Does a #1C boost bottom pairs more than a #1D boosts bottom-6? Who boosts each other when both on?

      • Woodguy v2.0 says:

        3rd pair usually get cherry minutes with the first line.

        Often vs Elites is with OTF (on the fly) shifts where the puck is already heading to the ozone.

        I was part of a group that created a website to examine that exact thing because we had the same questions:

        puckiq.com

  37. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Side:
    This would have been a big haul for the Canucks to give up in the BBR (Before Brogan Rafferty) period. But, as I mentioned before, prospects and trade picks have little value to the Canucks with Rafferty in the system now. Rafferbees is the end all be all. He is their nuclear weapon and the Maddens of the world are but stones and spears.

    At this point the Canucks are just trying to be humble and modest, giving the appearance that they are still trying to build a team like everyone else. In truth their plan going forward is just to reach the cap floor until Raffearty arrives and they sign him to a max contract. It will be the greatest value signing we will ever witness.

    Astute observation. I hear the plan is for Rafferty to play 2nd line center AND 1D. He is just that good.

  38. jtblack says:

    jp: A big factor I think is that JT Miller hit. When the Canucks traded for him his career highs were 23 goals and 58 points.

    Now he’s a PPG player (currently 1 goal and 1 point shy of his career highs with 23 games to play).

    They traded for a guy who’d just put up 47 points and averaged 51 in the previous 4 seasons. Now they have a 30 goal, 80 point clear cut 1st liner.

    Not exactly revisionist thinking but what’s happened since the trade changes the equation.

    Thats hows trades work. Social media piles on immediately , then if things break the right way (Player is good), you hear nothing ….. SM is best served fresh and to raost ppl in the now. But it rarely has to show face if the “in the moment post” was inacurate”

  39. John Chambers says:

    Cassandra:
    The Coleman and Toffoli deals are remarkably stupid for the acquiring teams.

    Shocking really.

    100%

    Canucks won’t draft until the 3rd round, missing out on the top 75 players in the draft, while also trading away one of their best prospects.

    The Coleman deal is a little bit more understandable, but if I’m Tampa I’d only be willing to part with the Lightning 1st, not the Canucks.

    Huge prices to pay for 3rd line talent.

    I hope Holland shops in the bargain bin and gets Pageau for a 2nd and Ostap Safin.

  40. N64 says:

    Side: At this point the Canucks are just trying to be humble and modest, giving the appearance that they are still trying to build a team like everyone else

    Genius idea. This time around they are going to trick us all into loving our hoser posers.

    https://theprovince.com/sports/why-are-the-vancouver-canucks-the-most-hated-team-in-hockey

    The cheeky monkeys at Spike TV have blasted away at the Olympic city, calling Vancouver Canucks fans the fifth-most annoying in all of sports, and the most regal butt-pains in the NHL…

    Canuckleheads lose points for their arrogance in the face of “zero Stanley Cups, no Hall of Fame players,” and they rank ahead of English soccer hooli…fans, and the brainwashed disciples of Al Davis and Jerry Jones

    Dys Forever!
    Other teams just don’t understand your success

  41. jtblack says:

    John Chambers: 100%

    Canucks won’t draft until the 3rd round, missing out on the top 75 players in the draft, while also trading away one of their best prospects.

    The Coleman deal is a little bit more understandable, but if I’m Tampa I’d only be willing to part with the Lightning 1st, not the Canucks.

    Huge prices to pay for 3rd line talent.

    I hope Holland shops in the bargain bin and gets Pageau for a 2nd and Ostap Safin.

    Why is the JT Miller trade bad for Van?

  42. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here is that exact info: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1228707074592268288

    I think Tippett can do something about it.

    I’m a little confused… so the coaching plan has been different when Larsson is on the ice? Or everyone changes their game?

  43. Bulging Twine says:

    Woodguy v2.0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXoArMDDCOM

    Messier must have committed close to murder to get a penalty in overtime in 1988.

    Sounds like Scotty Bowman on the colour?

    Great shot

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra:
    The Coleman and Toffoli deals are remarkably stupid for the acquiring teams.

    Shocking really.

    I give TBY much more of a pass as they need to shed salary next year and have a winger for Cirelli in the tough minutes.

    Their window is now, they know it and are maximizing the window, as they should.

    They paid for the privilege though.

  45. duct tape and foil says:

    Munny: The free money is by being on the LTIR.If his next concussion presents that much danger, that’s where he will be, and his agent will make sure of it.

    Every player in the NHL is in danger of a head injury. Nature of the game. If you get a few knocks then risk is greater. Kris has had plenty. He will be cleared to play and then it’s his call after July 1. Roll the dice to get less than 10% more on the current contract, or retire and enjoy your $28 million in career earnings with an intact brain. Pretty easy call if you are sensible.

    • Munny says:

      Yes, pretty easy call… because 99.9% of NHLers do not choose the path you are expecting KRusty to take. Feel free to roll that dice, but I have no expectation of the same outcome.

  46. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Hello folks.

    What a ride it’s been this season, eh? This team, that they continue to do what they’ve been doing with basically 1 line all year is amazing. Imagine if Connor had some wingers who could score, what would this team be then?

    I am thinking Anthanasiou is at an all-time low value and the Wings and his Agent may decide it’s time for him to go. As well, he could be a value contract for next year or 2, depending on how things can be negotiated. Plus Holland drafted him and was quite firm when he re-signed him during his walk-out.

    Kovalchuk, on Connor’s RW would look really good and his cap hit is perfect. My thoughts are to hang on to JP and try and convince him to return, with 1RW his slot to lose next season, so the target should be one and done and AK fits that bill.

    3C candidates? Pageau, Turris (but is finding recent success on Duschene’s RW), Jeff Carter – good at FO’s, holds his own in the bottom 6, but 35 with 2 years left yet having his best season in 3 yrs.

    Another vet Dman to cover for injuries. When Russell is back he will take over from Jones, otherwise the D depth consists of Jones, Lagesson, Brandon Manning,, Bouchard and Lowe. That’s not going to cut it.

    Del Zotto at $750 K and some of the best metrics on the Ducks DCorps seems like a good bet.

    Acquisition cost?

    AA: 2021 2nd, Cooper Marody (Michigan U) and Alex Chiasson

    AK:. 2020 4th, Lagesson

    JC: James Neal, 2021 1st (in consideration of Neal’s longer deal & higher cost), Conditional 2021 3rd (if Edm makes it to SC Finals in 2020 or 2021) Rights to Phil Kemp + LA to add their 2021 2nd

    MDZ: Khaira

  47. duct tape and foil says:

    Munny:
    Yes, pretty easy call… because 99.9% of NHLers do not choose the path you are expecting KRusty to take.Feel free to roll that dice, but I have no expectation of the same outcome.

    We will see after July 1…

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: Huge prices to pay for 3rd line talent.

    There is a trend for some teams back to “checking lines” in the NHL that see more TOI vs Elite forwards than the tradition Power vs Power.

    PIT has Aston-Reese are playing 35% vs Elites (Crosby is 35.5%, no one else is close) and getting 58% DFF and 40% GF vs them.

    This frees up Malkin (27.9% vs Elites) and some of Crosby’s time to make hay vs lesser comp.

    TBY runs Cirelli 35.8% vs Elites (lead TBY) with a 52% DFF and 63.7% GF in those minutes.

    Consequently Point sees 28.4% vs Elites and Stamkos sees 26.5% vs Elites.

    I think its a great idea and is one of the reasons that scoring is up.

    On some teams the best aren’t playing most of their minutes vs the best anymore and coaches are working harder for advantageous in-game match ups to win the goal share battle.

  49. Munny says:

    Bulging Twine: Messier must have committed close to murder to get a penalty in overtime in 1988.

    Sounds like Scotty Bowman on the colour?

    Great shot

    I think… but am not 100% certain, that it is Don Wittman and Gary Dornhoefer.

  50. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I give TBY much more of a pass as they need to shed salary next year and have a winger for Cirelli in the tough minutes.

    Their window is now, they know it and are maximizing the window, as they should.

    They paid for the privilege though.

    The real issue here is how much do you buy in to the idea that, given the weakness of the Pacific Division, is this the year to go for it.

    Obviously Vancouver thinks it is and had to replace Boeser who is out at least three more weeks.

    Should they be able to stay in the playoffs, they will get Boeser and Josh Leivo back for the stretch run and the playoffs which gives them three strong lines.

    Of course it’s a risk but if they miss the playoffs, the pick they sent to Tampa (now in New Jersey) moves to 2021.

    Also worth noting, the Canucks have a very strong prospect pool even without Madden.

    Podklozin, Hoglander, Lind, McDonaugh and Focht are all trending very well so it’s not like they don’t have a pipeline of potential cost controlled forwards coming on.

    By way of contrast, now that Yamamoto and Benson appear to have graduated, the Oilers forward prospect pool is pretty much depleted outside of Lavoie.

  51. jp says:

    Cassandra:
    The Coleman and Toffoli deals are remarkably stupid for the acquiring teams.

    Shocking really.

    Wasn’t there talk last deadline and the one before that teams were no longer paying a premium for rentals? That wisdom has been shot out a window it seems (if I’m remembering correctly).

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    Not super keen on the Canucks deal. The assets out are pretty close to what Tampa paid for Coleman. I much prefer the Pens deal, getting a guy with three years on his contract. I wonder how much of this is driven by the Canucks owner?

  53. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Not super keen on the Canucks deal.The assets out are pretty close to what Tampa paid for Coleman. I much prefer the Pens deal, getting a guy with three years on his contract.I wonder how much of this is driven by the Canucks owner?

    Likely quite a bit.

    He tweeted he loves the Toffoli deal.

    But he may not be wrong.

    The path to the conference finals in the WC is likely more open than it has been in years.

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I was at the draft in Vancouver.
    When the Canucks made the JT Miller trade and it was almost unanimous that it was a dumb trade for Vancouver.
    Benning trying to secure his job.
    Which at the end of summer he was given a 3 year extension.
    The Bolts were in cap hell.Yet, Benning gave up a 1st.
    Now, a few months later and the trade is seen as a clear win for Vancouver?

    Is this just revisionist thinking?

    That trade is a win every day of the week. But at the draft, the perceived value of picks is higher. It’s a perception issue.

  55. Munny says:

    jp: Wasn’t there talk last deadline and the one before that teams were no longer paying a premium for rentals? That wisdom has been shot out a window it seems (if I’m remembering correctly).

    Agreed on Toffoli. Coleman, Zucker, however, aren’t rentals.

  56. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I give TBY much more of a pass as they need to shed salary next year and have a winger for Cirelli in the tough minutes.

    Their window is now, they know it and are maximizing the window, as they should.

    They paid for the privilege though.

    They traded Foote for the privilege of downgrading from Miller to Coleman. Now it is true, that they can’t afford Miller and they can afford Coleman, but Miller is the better player, and they don’t need Coleman anyway.

    Foote is a good prospect. A first round pick is a first round pick. Two playoffs of Coleman isn’t worth that, not on this or any other planet.

    I know he has 20 goals, but he isn’t a “20 goal scorer.”

  57. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Not super keen on the Canucks deal.The assets out are pretty close to what Tampa paid for Coleman. I much prefer the Pens deal, getting a guy with three years on his contract.I wonder how much of this is driven by the Canucks owner?

    Zucker is also, by a considerable margin, the best player that was acquired.

  58. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Cassandra:

    I know he has 20 goals, but he isn’t a “20 goal scorer.”

    Very odd comment considering he has scored 20 goals in 2 consecutive seasons(his 2nd and 3rd yrs in the, you know NHL, where scoring consistently is the actual hardest thing to do).

    What then exactly what do you think he is, exactly, lol.

  59. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: Agreed on Toffoli. Coleman, Zucker, however, aren’t rentals.

    Canucks management spoke to Toffoli’s agent and he is amenable to re-signing with the Canucks because his wife works for the LA Dodgers and wants to stay on the west coast.

    He’s also close to Canucks forward and former linemate Tanner Pearson.

    The real question will be can the Canucks afford to re-sign him…they have some significant cap issues next season.

  60. wolf8888 says:

    Cassandra,

    What makes a 20 goal scorer? Used to be a guy that scored 20 goals. Must be old math

  61. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: The real question will be can the Canucks afford to re-sign him…they have some significant cap issues next season.

    And, on top of that, it will cost them another pick.

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    jp: A big factor I think is that JT Miller hit. When the Canucks traded for him his career highs were 23 goals and 58 points.

    Now he’s a PPG player (currently 1 goal and 1 point shy of his career highs with 23 games to play).

    They traded for a guy who’d just put up 47 points and averaged 51 in the previous 4 seasons. Now they have a 30 goal, 80 point clear cut 1st liner.

    Not exactly revisionist thinking but what’s happened since the trade changes the equation.

    If a player gets 55 pts, that puts them at the bottom of the first line tier or top of the second line tier. Miller’s historical avg puts him right there.

  63. jtblack says:

    Cassandra: They traded Foote for the privilege of downgrading from Miller to Coleman.Now it is true, that they can’t afford Miller and they can afford Coleman, but Miller is the better player, and they don’t need Coleman anyway.

    Foote is a good prospect.A first round pick is a first round pick.Two playoffs of Coleman isn’t worth that, not on this or any other planet.

    I know he has 20 goals, but he isn’t a “20 goal scorer.”

    Also. Both Foote draft picks were a reach. Nolan, no better than Lavooe; …. allow 1 year from Foote draft amd they were willing to move on.. Foote has had a poor DRAFT +1

  64. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair: Should they be able to stay in the playoffs

    OK. Where is DSF and what have you done with him?

    • JimmyV1965 says:

      jp: For sure. But there’s a huge difference in trading for an established 80 point player vs an established 55 point player. Massive difference in value, even if the latter is still (borderline) 1st line.

      The Canucks traded for a 55 point player and got an 80 point player. Benning can claim that 55 to 80 was a good bet, and he’s not totally full of it. But it wasn’t anything close to a guarantee.

      What I’m saying is a 55 pt Miller is worth a first round pick, unless it’s maybe a top 5-10. Anyone drafted after that is unlikely to be as good as Miller.

  65. jp says:

    Munny: Agreed on Toffoli. Coleman, Zucker, however, aren’t rentals.

    Fair. Though the price on Coleman at least was still pretty surprising for 2 playoff runs.

  66. oilersfan says:

    What do you folks think of going after Conor Sheary?

    Has good wheels and was able to score with Crosby… one would think he would be able to score with McDavid and have more value to the oilers than most other teams…

    I wonder if he would be available for a fourth and manning or something like that …

  67. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: And, on top of that, it will cost them another pick.

    A fourth round pick is worth about as much as pocket lint.

    • Genjutsu says:

      Caleb Jones, William Lagesson.

      That’s just from the roster of a team you’ve assured me sucks at drafting.

      Also this draft is the Marianas trench.

  68. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: If a player gets 55 pts, that puts them at the bottom of the first line tier or top of the second line tier.Miller’s historical avg puts him right there.

    For sure. But there’s a huge difference in trading for an established 80 point player vs an established 55 point player. Massive difference in value, even if the latter is still (borderline) 1st line.

    The Canucks traded for a 55 point player and got an 80 point player. Benning can claim that 55 to 80 was a good bet, and he’s not totally full of it. But it wasn’t anything close to a guarantee.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: There is a trend for some teams back to “checking lines” in the NHL that see more TOI vs Elite forwards than the tradition Power vs Power.

    PIT has Aston-Reese are playing 35% vs Elites (Crosby is 35.5%, no one else is close) and getting 58% DFF and 40% GF vs them.

    This frees up Malkin (27.9% vs Elites) and some of Crosby’s time to make hay vs lesser comp.

    TBY runs Cirelli 35.8% vs Elites (lead TBY) with a 52% DFF and 63.7% GF in those minutes.

    Consequently Point sees 28.4% vs Elites and Stamkos sees 26.5% vs Elites.

    I think its a great idea and is one ofthe reasons that scoring is up.

    On some teams the best aren’t playing most of their minutes vs the best anymore and coaches are working harder for advantageous in-game match ups to win the goal share battle.

    We know that some teams shelter players by playing them against the elites on the second half of elites shift as shown by the athletic guys
    On the fly shifts against the other teams top players where they are more tired and looking to change
    I don’t think TOI numbers have as much value as you think it does

  70. leadfarmer says:

    I really hope Canucks sign Toffoli to a Loui Erickson contract
    That would be the best result

  71. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: If a player gets 55 pts, that puts them at the bottom of the first line tier or top of the second line tier.Miller’s historical avg puts him right there.

    Historical averages go out the window when a player is traded.

    Smart GMs find market efficiencies in finding players that are under utilized on their current teams.

    JT Miller is Priima Facie evidence of this.

    I expect Toffoli is another example.

    LA has had trouble generating offense for many years.

    I’d wager he will thrive in Vancouvers up tempo offense just like Miller.

  72. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: They traded Foote for the privilege of downgrading from Miller to Coleman.Now it is true, that they can’t afford Miller and they can afford Coleman, but Miller is the better player, and they don’t need Coleman anyway.

    Foote is a good prospect.A first round pick is a first round pick.Two playoffs of Coleman isn’t worth that, not on this or any other planet.

    I know he has 20 goals, but he isn’t a “20 goal scorer.”

    I think Coleman might be the perfect player for Tampa; someone who can score 5 x 5, kill penalties and be a royal pain in the ass to play against; for a cap hit of $1.8 mill. It was an expensive addition, but probably worth the price for a Cup contender.

  73. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: Likely quite a bit.

    He tweeted he loves the Toffoli deal.

    But he may not be wrong.

    The path to the conference finals in the WC is likely more open than it has been in years.

    You’re right about the Canucks prospect pool. They have a deep group so maybe they can afford the assets. Unfortunately, I don’t think they are a legit cup contender and I think they make the playoffs with or without Toffoli. I’m not sure they can resign him next year because of their cap situation. I probably hate the deal a lot less than others here.

  74. jtblack says:

    1 Team wins the Cup.
    2 Pennants.

    So the risk of failure, by the odds, is EXTREME. Only 4 – 6 GM’s will be considered successsful.

    So making trades forr your team to be successful this year, shoukd be a big HELL YA from the fan base and ppl.

    All good teams have a combination of good drafting and good trading.

    No team “just drafts and developes” & no team “”just trades”.

    Good for Van and good for TB. players know GM has their back

  75. wolf8888 says:

    Harpers Hair,

    What do you mean by thrive and how much will you bet?

  76. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair: Historical averages go out the window when a player is traded.

    Smart GMs find market efficiencies in finding players that are under utilized on their current teams.

    JT Miller is Priima Facie evidence of this.

    I expect Toffoli is another example.

    LA has had trouble generating offense for many years.

    I’d wager he will thrive in Vancouvers up tempo offense just like Miller.

    another good example.is Zucker.

    Passes from Croz and Malkin are diff than Mikko Koviu.

    Miller got a huge boost in quality ice time.

    risk / reward. Thats the job of the scouts and GM.

  77. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: A fourth round pick is worth about as much as pocket lint.

    That’s exactly how I feel about Gaudreau, Pageau, Athanasiou, Slavin, Arvidsson, Donskoi…

  78. Hy Perbole says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Thanks for the suggestion.

  79. Harpers Hair says:

    wolf8888:
    Harpers Hair,

    What do you mean by thrive and how much will you bet?

    I expect he will finish the season with 25 goals.

    What do you think?

  80. jtblack says:

    Munny: That’s exactly how I feel about Gaudreau, Pageau, Athanasiou, Slavin, Arvidsson, Donskoi…

    Pick. Cherry. Pick Cherry.

    can you list all 4th round picks since 2010?

  81. who says:

    jtblack:
    1 Team wins the Cup.
    2 Pennants.

    So the risk of failure, by the odds, is EXTREME.Only 4 – 6 GM’s will be considered successsful.

    So making trades forr your team to be successful this year, shoukd be a big HELL YA from the fan base and ppl.

    All good teams have a combination of good drafting and good trading.

    No team “just drafts and developes” & no team “”just trades”.

    Good for Van and good for TB. players know GM has their back

    I agree with you about the risk of failure.
    Which is why no team should go all in unless they are sure their window is about to close.
    I think the odds are much better for winning the cup if a team stays in the contending window for as long as possible. Therefore, rentals that rob a team of significant future assets are generally a bad idea.
    There is a so much luck involved in a cup run. You are much better off giving your team as many kicks at the can as possible.

  82. Bank Shot says:

    Remember guys, 5’8″ Yamamoto is going to get creamed and ran out of the rink.

    5’8″ Hoglander makes future first and second round picks expendable.

    That’s what blindly supporting your team looks like.

    A team that is barely over even in goals for/ against is foolish to be trading a bunch of futures to try to win now.

    Everyone can see a solid team coming. No one sees it in the Canucks this season. They are hellbent on trying to force it along, and its going to severely cap the future potential of the team.

    I like it.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: The real issue here is how much do you buy in to the idea that, given the weakness of the Pacific Division, is this the year to go for it.

    Obviously Vancouver thinks it is and had to replace Boeser who is out at least three more weeks.

    Should they be able to stay in the playoffs, they will get Boeser and Josh Leivo back for the stretch run and the playoffs which gives them three strong lines.

    Of course it’s a risk but if they miss the playoffs, the pick they sent to Tampa (now in New Jersey) moves to 2021.

    Also worth noting, the Canucks have a very strong prospect pool even without Madden.

    Podklozin, Hoglander, Lind,McDonaugh and Focht are all trending very well so it’s not like they don’t have a pipeline of potential cost controlled forwards coming on.

    By way of contrast, now that Yamamoto and Benson appear to have graduated, the Oilers forward prospect pool is pretty much depleted outside of Lavoie.

    Carson Focht, the 20 year old forward under a PPG in junior?

    Wait, Benson has now graduated after 4 NHL games but yet you refused to take Quinn Hughes off the list months in to the season?

    Really? Do you not see how fully dishonest this looks?

  84. Munny says:

    who: I agree with you about the risk of failure.
    Which is why no team should go all in unless they are sure their window is about to close.
    I think the odds are much better for winning the cup if a team stays in the contending window for as long as possible. Therefore, rentals that rob a team of significant future assets are generally a bad idea.
    There is a so much luck involved in a cup run. You are much better off giving your team as many kicks at the can as possible.

    This.

  85. jtblack says:

    who: I agree with you about the risk of failure.
    Which is why no team should go all in unless they are sure their window is about to close.
    I think the odds are much better for winning the cup if a team stays in the contending window for as long as possible. Therefore, rentals that rob a team of significant future assets are generally a bad idea.
    There is a so much luck involved in a cup run. You are much better off giving your team as many kicks at the can as possible.

    Thats your philosohphy. But Pitt has been selling draft picks for 8 years and they have 2 Cups. Is that poor asset mgmt?

    There are diff ways to win. Nobody knows who will do well?

    Didd yoy have Vegas coming out of the WEST in 2018?
    How about St.louis coming out of the WEST last yr?

    maybe in hindsight. But most ppl did not have either team.

    Whos coming out of the WEST this year Mr. GM?

    • Dac189 says:

      But isn’t that exactly the point he’s making? That any team can win. So it’s better to just be in the playoffs more often than to go all in 1 year

  86. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: That’s exactly how I feel about Gaudreau, Pageau, Athanasiou, Slavin, Arvidsson, Donskoi…

    How do you feel about the Oilers fourth round picks for the last 10 seasons allowing for 5 years from the draft?

    2014 – William Lagesson

    2013 – Jackson Houck, Kyle Platzer

    2011 – Dillon Simpson, Tobias Reider

    2010 – Jeremy Blain

    2009 – Kyle Bigos, Toni Rajala

    2008 -Johann Motin

    2007 – Linus Omark

    2006 – no pick

    2005 – Chris Van de Velde

    2004 – Liam Reddox

    Man, that’s a murderer’s row right there.

    Wouldn’t want to trade any of those guys for a chance to get an established top six forward with more than 500 games to his credit.

    That would be madness!

  87. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar: Carson Focht, the 20 year old forward under a PPG in junior?

    Wait, Benson has now graduated after 4 NHL games but yet you refused to take Quinn Hughes off the list months in to the season?

    Really?Do you not see how fully dishonest this looks?

    That’s the MO.

    I’m not sure why anyone bothers trying to honestly debate Hairlip.

  88. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think Larsson fell off the map when he watched his Dad die and hasn’t recovered.Its a tragedy in all aspects for everyone.

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    What are the on-ice shooting and save percentages?

    If the anomaly in the numbers can be found in those two percentages, then:

    1. Can Larsson do anything about it?
    2. Can Holland?

    Woodguy v2.0: Here is that exact info: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1228707074592268288
    I think Tippett can do something about it.

    I’m curious your rationale for concluding Larsson has fallen off the map when his underlying numbers remain strong. His shot rates and DFF% remain solid but his goal rates and PDO have gone into the shitter.

    You’ve correctly identified his on ice SH% drop, but his on ice SV% has also dropped relative to his own past. His PDO the past 2 seasons has been .963 and .961. Ugly, but is it really his play? I don’t know, but I’m at least hesitating that he’s off the cliff, or the game has passed him by, since he underlying numbers have barely moved.

    Klefbom has also chronically underperformed his shot metrics. Why does he get a pass but Larsson is done? Klefbom has literally only 1 season in his career with a GF% over 47 and a PDO over .990 (16-17). Larsson has been a bit worse than Klefbom these last 2 seasons, but not by that much. And Klefbom’s history goes back longer.

    I don’t believe Dmen control on ice SV%, so it’s a stretch for me to believe they control on ice shooting. I’d lean to a string of bad luck (in front of bad goalies) for both players, but I definitely don’t feel comfortable hitting Larsson with the weight of his on ice percentages while believing Klefbom is doing A-OK.

    In terms of your Twitter post:
    1) What does “Threat” mean? +18 for Larsson/McDavid vs +17 for McDavid only.
    2) Why only with/without McDavid? (110 minutes Larsson/McDavid isn’t a huge sample).
    3) McDavid’s shooting % doubles without Larsson, but xGF only goes from 2.45 to 2.64. Is the increase in shooting % and goals “real”?
    4) This is a stretch, but with Larsson on, it seems like the hottest HD spot is net front to right FO circle. Is it possible Larsson is doing something good there?

    One other thing to add is that Larsson seems to have recovered to decent/normal results in 2020. He certainly should get a little slack for his play immediately after a mid-season return from a broken leg.

  89. ristojalo says:

    Harpers Hair,

    I miss the days when you used to go on and on about Cole Cassels and how he “dominated” McDavid in juniors.

  90. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Carson Focht, the 20 year old forward under a PPG in junior?

    Wait, Benson has now graduated after 4 NHL games but yet you refused to take Quinn Hughes off the list months in to the season?

    Really?Do you not see how fully dishonest this looks?

    I don’t mind if you put Benson back in the AHL if it tickles your fancy.

    The Oiler’s forward prospect depth is atrocious.

    Kole Lind is already ahead of him and was drafted a year later.

  91. Harpers Hair says:

    ristojalo:
    Harpers Hair,

    I miss the days when you used to go on and on about Cole Cassels and how he “dominated” McDavid in juniors.

    He did in one series…so what?

  92. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Carson Focht, the 20 year old forward under a PPG in junior?

    Wait, Benson has now graduated after 4 NHL games but yet you refused to take Quinn Hughes off the list months in to the season?

    Really?Do you not see how fully dishonest this looks?

    Just like you to pick the last guy on the list and ignore the others.

    Talk about dishonesty.

  93. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: How do you feel about the Oilers fourth round picks for the last 10 seasons allowing for 5 years from the draft?

    2014 – William Lagesson

    2013 – Jackson Houck, Kyle Platzer

    2011 – Dillon Simpson, Tobias Reider

    2010 – Jeremy Blain

    2009 – Kyle Bigos, Toni Rajala

    2008 -Johann Motin

    2007 – Linus Omark

    2006 – no pick

    2005 – Chris Van de Velde

    2004 – Liam Reddox

    Man, that’s a murderer’s row right there.

    Wouldn’t want to trade any of those guys for a chance to get an established top six forward with more than 500 games to his credit.

    That would be madness!

    How do I feel about them? Well that’s different than how I would feel about a 4th round pick.

    And how I feel about a 4th round pick also depends upon how many picks I have. In Economics, we call this Marginal Utility.

    My point is that there was an additional cost beyond the cap hit to signing Toffoli (which had gone unmentioned in your comment about re-signing not being a lock). I didn’t mention it in the post, but that cost is actually greater when you are already holding less picks.

    4th round picks do pan out. They are not pocket lint and should not be treated or thought of as such.

    Now perhaps in your choice of phrase you were employing the literary device known as hyperbole.

    Which would in turn be ironic… considering you’ve already taken a commentor on this very thread to task for employing that same device of hyperbole

  94. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: How do I feel about them?Well that’s different than how I would feel about a 4th round pick.

    And how I feel about a 4th round pick also depends upon how many picks I have.In Economics, we call this Marginal Utility.

    My point is that there was an additional cost beyond the cap hit to signing Toffoli.I didn’t mention it in the post, but that cost is actually greater when you are already holding less picks.

    4th round picks do pan out.They are not pocket lint and should not be treated or thought of as such.

    Now perhaps in your choice of phrase you were employing the literary device known as hyperbole.

    Which would in turn be ironic… considering you’ve already taken a commentor on this very thread to task for employing that same device of hyperbole

    I’m not going to go back and show you how few 4th round picks become NHL players because that would be tedious but the fact is it’s far less what your cherry picked list of success would indicate.

    There is just a good a chance of a 5th, 6th or 7th round pick making it so giving up a 4th is tantamount to losing a dime under the bed.

    If you believe it’s a significant cost I am sure I can’t convince you otherwise nor will I try since you’ve already established your narrative.

  95. who says:

    jtblack: Thats your philosohphy.But Pitt has been selling draft picks for 8 years and they have 2Cups. Is that poor asset mgmt?

    There are diff ways to win.Nobody knows who will do well?

    Didd yoy have Vegas coming out of the WEST in 2018?
    How about St.louis coming out of the WEST last yr?

    maybe in hindsight.But most ppl did not have either team.

    Whos coming out of the WEST this year Mr. GM?

    It’s just one man’s opinion.
    I have no idea who’s coming out of the west but if I was a betting man it would probably be a team from the Central.
    I think the Canucks are guilty of going all in too soon, but even if they do get to the cup final, will it be because they acquired Toffoli? Or would they have got there without him?
    I’ll use your last 2 examples.
    Did Tatar help Vegas get to the cup finals?
    Who did St Louis pick up at the deadline that made a significant difference to their team?

  96. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: I’m not going to go back and show you how few 4th round picks become NHL players because that would be tedious but the fact is it’s far less what your cherry picked list of success would indicate.

    I’m not trying to establish a list of success. I’m just demonstrating what we all know… 4th round picks aren’t worthless. They represent a cost and a value. One that wasn’t included in your accounting. Are you that butt hurt about missing it? Or about me trying to establish the full cost for the record, that you feel it necessary to demean my point?

    What exactly do you hope to achieve here at LT’s, Andrew?

    Do you despise LT so much that you won’t be happy till you’ve completely destroyed the comments section of his blog?

    Do you hate all of us strangers so much that you’re not happy until we’re all rage posting against you?

    What exactly are you trying to accomplish on this blog?

  97. duct tape and foil says:

    Was just browsing Athanasiou’s stats and this came up:

    SH% 5.56. SV% 85.89. PDO 0.914

    That has got to be some kind of historic PDO curse and you could not buy much lower than this. He’s my target if Old Dutch doesn’t hate him.

  98. duct tape and foil says:

    Why does anyone reply to the magic troll HH? He has no intension of making any positive contribution. I just skip right over his spam. Must have a pretty pathetic life to waste his time with this act.

  99. wolf8888 says:

    Harpers Hair,

    he had 18 goals in 58 games. how is 7 in 23 flourishing by comparison?

  100. €√¥£€^$ says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Why does anyone reply to the magic troll HH?He has no intension of making any positive contribution. I just skip right over his spam. Must have a pretty pathetic life to waste his time with this act.

    It is very strange to me as well. I thought this was supposed to be an Oilers blog.

    Oh well…I guess he has more things that are more interesting to discuss than some of us actual Oiler fans.

    Good nite all!

  101. Slocanoil says:

    Harpers Hair,

    So then you think he has been thriving in LA? Your not even going to round up to 26?

  102. Lowetide says:

    who: It’s just one man’s opinion.
    I have no idea who’s coming out of the west but if I was a betting man it would probably be a team from the Central.
    I think the Canucks are guilty of going all in too soon, but even if they do get to the cup final, will it be because they acquired Toffoli? Or would they have got there without him?
    I’ll use your last 2 examples.
    Did Tatar help Vegas get to the cup finals?
    Who did St Louis pick up at the deadline that made a significant difference to their team?

    I think the Pacific Division teams have an interesting dilemma. Because some team from the Pacific is going to make the final four (probably) and the path could be fairly easy compared to a tougher division.

  103. who says:

    Lowetide: I think the Pacific Division teams have an interesting dilemma. Because some team from the Pacific is going to make the final four (probably) and the path could be fairly easy compared to a tougher division.

    I think you’re right.
    I just don’t think a rental like Toffoli makes a big enough difference to justify the price paid.
    I don’t think a Pageau, or a Kreider, is going to put the Oilers over the top. It may improve their odds by a few percentage points, but the cost is just too high.
    I would look for a young player with term. At least 2 more years after this one. Or a cheaper rental. Someone you can acquire for a 3rd or 4th round pick.

  104. Wilde says:

    Bakersfield Condors vs. San Jose Barracuda; February 16th, 2020; first run

    Gambardella – Esposito – Currie
    Koules – Malone – Peluso
    Stukel – McLeod – Maksimov
    Vesey – Starrett – Day

    Lowe – Bouchard
    Samorukov – Persson
    Manning – Kulevich

    after 20

    10CF-25CA
    7FF-14FA
    1GF-2GA

    Top F: Esposito (1.21 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 1 shot assist
    1 assist
    7CF-2CA
    5FF-1FA
    1GF-0GA

    Top D: Persson (-0.10 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 0 shot assists
    4CF-4CA
    3FF-3FA
    0GF-1GA

    after 40

    18CF-39CA
    12FF-21FA
    1GF-3GA

    Top F: Esposito (1.41 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 4 shot assists
    1 assist
    11CF-5CA
    8FF-3FA
    1GF-0GA

    Top D: Bouchard (-0.09 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 2 shot assists
    9CF-17CA
    7FF-9FA
    1GF-0GA

    game totals

    30CF-59CA
    18FF-33FA
    2GF-4GA

    Top F: Esposito (1.11 Game Score)
    1 shot attempt, 4 shot assists
    1 assist
    12CF-9CA
    8FF-7FA
    1GF-1GA

    Top D: Bouchard (0.22 Game Score)
    4 shot attempts, 2 shot assists
    16CF-24CA
    11FF-15FA
    2GF-0GA

    help

  105. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Wilde,

    Thanks for this, as always Wilde!

    4 rookie prospects + Skinner + maybe Persson as future players for the Oil. Next year, Lavoie + maybe Berglund, maybe Niemelainen and Rasanen. Yikes.

    This is why this team must hang on to as many of their 2020 picks as possible. Hopefully Holland can entice 3 or 4 really good NCAA players to the Org and not the Espositos and Starrettts of the crop.

    Help indeed….

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: Wasn’t there talk last deadline and the one before that teams were no longer paying a premium for rentals? That wisdom has been shot out a window it seems (if I’m remembering correctly).

    The amount of 1st being spend on rentals has dropped considerably.

    No firsts have been traded (yet) for a pure rental.

    All the 1sts have gone for players with term.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: I’m a little confused… so the coaching plan has been different when Larsson is on the ice?Or everyone changes their game?

    My guess is that EDM takes more point shots with Larsson on the ice since:

    -there are less rush shots due to less dzone exits with possession
    -poor play selection by Larsson with the puck in the ozone

    The first point being the main one.

    I’m sure there are other factors not coming to mind or that I don’t know.

  108. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The amount of 1st being spend on rentals has dropped considerably.

    No firsts have been traded (yet) for a pure rental.

    All the 1sts have gone for players with term.

    Yeah fair enough.

    Though Hall (40 game rental) did return a 1st, rightfully.

    And it would be easy to argue that Madden and a 2nd for Tofolli is a 1st round quality return.

  109. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jp,

    – Yeah the broken foot thingy at the beginning of the season isn’t just some thingy. Highlighting his deficiencies and concluding he’s no good without acknowledging the effect that the injury has had seems to be missing the point

    – Plus hes now consistently playing with Klef again which helps rather than the various partners he had when he first came back.

  110. Seismic Source says:

    I am getting the most peculiar adds lately.

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra: They traded Foote for the privilege of downgrading from Miller to Coleman.Now it is true, that they can’t afford Miller and they can afford Coleman, but Miller is the better player, and they don’t need Coleman anyway.

    Foote is a good prospect.A first round pick is a first round pick.Two playoffs of Coleman isn’t worth that, not on this or any other planet.

    I know he has 20 goals, but he isn’t a “20 goal scorer.”

    I’m going to disagree with this.

    Coleman has some of the best defensive metrics in the league and will play with Cirelli vs the best.

    What they gave up to get him will mostly be re-couped when they move Johnson/Palat/Killorn next summer ro make cap room.

  112. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    jp,

    – Yeah the broken foot thingy at the beginning of the season isn’t just some thingy. Highlighting his deficiencies and concluding he’s no good without acknowledging the effect that the injury has had seems to be missing the point

    – Plus hes now consistently playing with Klef again which helps rather than the various partners he had when he first came back.

    Broken fib, but I agree that the injury should be discussed. The reason he came in this year lighter was to improve foot speed and mobility. Getting that injury most likely put him back to last year in terms of foot speed and mobility, maybe even further back.

    In terms of D partners
    Klefbom 455 mins 13 gf 20 ga
    Russell 93 mins 0 gf 3 ga
    Nurse 54 mins 2 gf 2 ga
    Lagesson 21 mins 1gf 2 ga

    As Woodguy has showed, Larssons goal metrics are not good up and down the lineup. I have seen what Sportloqiq tracks for Dmen and numbers for some players, but not any Oilers. I would love to see what they are showing for Larsson.

  113. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?

    https://theathletic.com/1612168/2020/02/18/lowetide-for-oilers-kailer-yamamoto-and-leon-draisaitl-first-impressions-are-long-forgotten-why-not-jesse-puljujarvi/

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: We know that some teams shelter players by playing them against the elites on the second half of elites shift as shown by the athletic guys
    On the fly shifts against the other teams top players where they are more tired and looking to change
    I don’t think TOI numbers have as much value as you think it does

    Good thing we have Face Offs/60 vs every QoC on puckiq then as it shows who is getting the OTF shifts.

    “hey look, Cirelli leads TBY in FO/60 vs Elites”

    Aston-Reese is right in the mix in PIT, while Crosby gets the most.

    Its almost like we put in FO/60 for exactly that reason!

    Also,

    Sean is working on our Shift Start database which will allow the users at Puckiq to sort results by Ozone FO, NZ FO, Dzone FO and OTF shifts.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: I’m curious your rationale for concluding Larsson has fallen off the map when his underlying numbers remain strong. His shot rates and DFF% remain solid but his goal rates and PDO have gone into the shitter.

    You’ve correctly identified his on ice SH% drop, but his on ice SV% has also dropped relative to his own past. His PDO the past 2 seasons has been .963 and .961. Ugly, but is it really his play? I don’t know, but I’m at least hesitating that he’s off the cliff, or the game has passed him by, since he underlying numbers have barely moved.

    Klefbom has also chronically underperformed his shot metrics. Why does he get a pass but Larsson is done? Klefbom has literally only 1 season in his career with a GF% over 47 and a PDO over .990 (16-17). Larsson has been a bit worse than Klefbom these last 2 seasons, but not by that much. And Klefbom’s history goes back longer.

    I don’t believe Dmen control on ice SV%, so it’s a stretch for me to believe they control on ice shooting. I’d lean to a string of bad luck (in front of bad goalies) for both players, but I definitely don’t feel comfortable hitting Larsson with the weight of his on ice percentages while believing Klefbom is doing A-OK.

    In terms of your Twitter post:
    1) What does “Threat” mean? +18 for Larsson/McDavid vs +17 for McDavid only.
    2) Why only with/without McDavid? (110 minutes Larsson/McDavid isn’t a huge sample).
    3) McDavid’s shooting % doubles without Larsson, but xGF only goes from 2.45 to 2.64. Is the increase in shooting % and goals “real”?
    4) This is a stretch, but with Larsson on, it seems like the hottest HD spot is net front to right FO circle. Isit possible Larsson is doing something good there?

    One other thing to add is that Larsson seems to have recovered to decent/normal results in 2020. He certainly should get a little slack for his play immediately after a mid-season return from a broken leg.

    You’re right that he’s has an awful PDO, but the fact that the shitty ONSH% follows him from forward to forward is a big sign that its something that happens when he’s on the ice.

    His Goals Against are fine this year.

    Goals For are going to die with everyone he plays with.

    I think Tippett and Playfair could identify why this happens and try to fix it.

    My guess is the biggest factor is lack of zone exits leading to rush chances plays a big part, EDM scores a lot of goals off the rush.

    When a player’s Actual Goal Share results deviate so much from the underlying stats for over 2000 minutes you can’t just expect regression to start any minute, you need to try to figure out why…..imo

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