The 62 best players in the 2020 draft

The regular season’s day to day activity is making it difficult to give consistent updates on the 2020 draft. As you know, it’s a passion of mine going back to 1971, so this is the fun stuff.

You may read and hear today about what’s wrong with my list, flaws in my rankings. Things like I’m not at the rink and old people can’t see. So, allow me to be clear: This list adores math, reads scouting reports and (as the draft season moves along) is gifted with intel from bona fide sources.

If you don’t like it, don’t read it. If it offends you, then I expect we’re very different people and wish you well. The list loves speed, NHL equivalencies, takes age into account and apologizes to no one. It’s just the way math works, with some informed verbal (from outside) and the experience that comes with staring at these numbers for 50 years.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
  • Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It was reactionary’: Oilers’ Zack Kassian addresses alleged kick; Lightning depth strikes; and Kailer Yamamoto’s big game
  • Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Why Connor McDavid’s injury is unlikely to alter Ken Holland’s trade deadline plan for the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We want to take it as a challenge’: Oilers survive first game without McDavid as room for improvement remains
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trying to make sense of Connor McDavid’s injury and Darnell Nurse’s new contract with Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Faced with uncertainty, Oilers hedge their bet on Darnell Nurse
  • Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20

THE TOP 62 FOR 2020

1 (1) L Alexis Lafreniere, QMJHL. Speed, shot, passing, vision, he has it all. October 2001. Insane talent, WJ performance sealed his spot as the best available.

2 (2) LC Quinton Byfield, OHL. August 2002 and a big man (6.04, 215). He skates well, can pass, take a pass and has a dynamic ability to him. Not a major factor at WJ’s.

3 (5) LC Tim Stuetzle, DEL. Dynamic player, highlight reel offense and dangerous on every rush. His two-way game is good for his age. January 2002

4 (8) RHD Jamie Drysdale, OHL. Great speed, passing and instincts, he’s instant offense from the blue. Part of Canada’s WJ Gold winner. April 2002

5 (6) LC Marco Rossi, OHL. Posting jaw-dropping numbers, he’s a September 2001. Good speed, exciting, range of skills.

6 (3) LC Cole Perfetti, OHL. Intelligent center with a terrific release, Perfetti is a January 2002. His wrist shot is already a great weapon in the OHL and he’s not fully grown (5.10, 177).

7 (4) RW Alexander Holtz, SHL. First-shot scorer with a range of skills, he’s an electric player. He’s quality. January 2002.

8 (7) LW Lucas Raymond, SHL. Smart player who has ridiculous skill, his WJ’s might hurt him in the draft. March 2002.

9 (11) RC-RW Dawson Mercer, QMJHL. Highly skilled forward who is a plus passer. He emerged a year ago and is taking another step this season (very good sign). October 2001.

10 (10) RC Mavrik Bourque, QMJHL. Creative center with great hands. Great passer, great shot. January 2002.

11 (22) RW Jack Quinn OHL. He’s doing it all now, skating with power and scoring with authority. He could go top 10. One of two new entries into the top 20. Sept 2001

12 (12) G Yaroslav Askarov, VHL. He plays an unusual style. June 2002, has a .923 VHL save percentage. He could go anywhere 8-25 in the first round.

13 (15) LC Connor Zary, WHL. Scouts will love his range of skills and passing ability. Two-way center who is likely to top out as a top-six forward is a good bet by this point in the first round. September 2001

14 (9) LC Anton Lundell, Liiga. October 2001 has a nice range of skills and is showing nice growth in his second Liiga season.

15 (13) LW Dylan Holloway, Big 10. Big power forward. He has a great shot and makes good passes, strong skater, nice range of skills. I’ve faded him a little because his offense hasn’t shown yet. If that continues, he’ll fall on my list.

16 (14) RW Noel Gunler, SHL. Young winger has a great release and an impressive resume but is only an average scorer in the SHL. However, the points he is gathering are at even strength. October 2001

17 (20) LD Jérémie Poirier, QMJHL. Smart two-way defender who may rise on my list. Solid from the Hlinka forward, he’s a gathering storm and could slide up several spots. June 2002

18 (16) RC Jacob Perreault, OHL. Skates well, great shot, great numbers. His numbers earn Perreault this spot. April 2002

19 (28) LD Jake Sanderson, USHL. This is Geoff Sanderson’s son and he can skate like the wind. Smart player, have drilled down a little on him and expect he’s going to be a top 20 pick on merit. July 2002

20 (21) RD Braden Schneider, WHL. Fine skater who has a range of skills, owns a fairly complete game. Schneider’s offense is comparable to most of the defenseman I have in the first round. Sept 2001

21 (19) RC Jean-Luc Foudy, OHL. Speedy center with plus skill, he’s a May 2002 and has 61 assists in 99 junior games. His brother is a famous prospect, not certain how he compares but in this year’s draft looks like mid to late first round.

22 (18) LC Hendrix Lapierre, QMJHL. Skill center who projects as a playmaker. The buzz on him entering the season was far more pronounced than it is now, so the second half of his season will be vital. Feb 2002.

23 (17) RHD Justin Barron, QMJHL. Mobile defenseman who can defend. Lacks top-end offensive ability so is shy of the top-10 overall, but a team who likes him might jump up. November 2001.

24 (NR) RC Seth Jarvis, WHL. The highest new entry from the last list, I didn’t have him in my initial pool for evaluation. Jarvis is a fantastic player, undersized and skilled. He might end up in my top 15.

25 (23)  LW Jake Neighbours WHL I was surprised math liked him so much compared to his draft rivals. I have spoken to scouts who have him as an early second round pick, but he’s here on math. He’s skilled, gritty and plays a strong two-way game. March 2002

26 (24) LW Rodion Amirov, KHL. His offensive potential is high, although the KHL numbers (21, 0-2-2) are shy. Scouts love the tools and he’s a fast train in a draft season with slow boats. October 2001.

27 (25) LC Ty Smilanic, USHL. Lean two-way center with enough skill to project into the top six based on math. Scouting report talks about plus skating and finding another gear. Promising resume. January 2002

28 (NR) RW Luke Evangelista, OHL. I don’t trust London Knights numbers but this young man looks like a hit. Spiked in a big way this year, I like his scouting reports. Feb 2002

29 (NR) LC Jan Mysak, OHL. A late breaker and someone who has quite a lot of buzz around him all of a sudden. He’s a June 2002, very skilled and is effective in all three disciplines. He’s going to land in a good spot on the final list.

30 (NR) RC Tyson Foerster, OHL. Great offensive weapon, quick release and accurate. His NHLE is very strong (around 35 points) and he has reasonable size, so he might land higher on my final list but we need to find out more about his skating.

31 (29) LD Kaiden Guhle, WHL. Big defenseman has good foot speed and appears to have something resembling an ideal skill set. I’m nicking him because of math, he’ll go earlier. Jan 2002

31 (NR) LW Lukas Reichel, DEL. One of the mid-season risers from Europe, his totals in the DEL (32, 10-11-21) are promising. He has skill, speed and plays with abandon. I like him better than Peterka but we have some distance to go.

33 (NR) LD William Wallinder, Superelite. He’s a big (6.04, 195) defenseman with great speed and the scouting reports suggest offensive potential. His numbers in the Swedish SuperElite don’t scream offensive defenseman to me.

34 (NR) RW Ozzy Wiesblatt, WHL. Skill winger lacks size but plays with great determination. Scoring at a point per game rate, and has already reached 20-goal plateau. March 2002.

35 (30) LC Vasili Ponomaryov, QMJHL. Great hands and good speed, he’s a little under the radar but rates well with other skill forwards I have ranked in the bottom half of the first round. March 2002

36 (26) LC Antonio Stranges, OHL Terrific speed and skill, and delivers solid offense but the math doesn’t match the verbal. We wait. Feb 2002

37 (NR) LD Ryan O’Rourke, OHL. Good size (6.02, 181) and growing offensive ability have him here. Foot speed improving as he matures, projects as a top-four defenseman. May 2002.

38 (NR) LW Ridly Greig, WHL. Smart offensive winger with good instincts, he isn’t a fast train so gets nicked a little. August 2002 so there’s still room to grow.

39 (NR) RW Sam Colangelo, USHL. Big power winger with skill, he has scored 20 goals in the USHL already. His speed is going to decide his final draft number, based on what I’ve read it’s average but we still have some time to go. December 2001

40 (NR) LW John-Jason Peterka, DEL. A speedy winger with skill, and not yet the sum of his parts. Is scoring well (33, 6-4-10) in a men’s league, the question pertains to the quality of the league. I have faded him.

41 (NR) RW Zion Nybeck, SuperElite. Undersized playmaker, creative, great passer. Impressive speed. Smooth. May 2002.

42 (NR) LW Brendan Brisson, USHL. Undersized speedster has a late 2001 birthday and lots of talent. His skating is good.

43 (27) LC Thomas Bordeleau, USHL. Owns a great shot and is highly skilled with the puck. First shot scorer, year over year improvement looks substantial. He could climb. Jan 2002

44 (NR) LD Emil Andrae, SuperElite. Fast defenseman with offensive potential. Plus passer. He may climb in the spring. Feb 2002.

45 (NR) LW Luke Tuch, USHL. Alex Tuch’s brother, he plays a similar style. Tuch’s USHL numbers are good not great, he could have more offense but it’s difficult to get playing time in the program. March 2002

46 (NR) RC Jaromir Pytlik, OHL. He’s a fine skater and has two-way skills, meaning he’ll probably land in the top 50 on my list. I like players with a wide range of skills. His NHLE is a little shy to be in this company. Sept 2001

47 (NR) RW Daniil Gushchin, USHL. Small, speedy playmaking forward. Good numbers. Feb 2002.

48 (NR) LW Will Cuylle, OHL. Lots of positives about Cuylle, I have him here because I don’t think his offense makes him a likely top-six forward. Has a great shot. Could fall on my final list

49 (31) RC Justin Sourdif, WHL. Two-way winger gained notice at the Hlinka and has scored well on an average offensive team (Vancouver Giants). March 2002

50 (NR) LW Martin Chromiak, OHL. I like his scouting report and his OHL scoring numbers, not certain if he’s getting zoomed by Shane Wright. He looks substantial.

51 (NR) RW Connor McClennon, WHL. His offensive numbers are solid to excellent and he’s a June 2002 so there’s room to grow. He’s undersized but drives to the net. Range of skills.

52 (NR) RD Topi Niemela, Liiga. I’ve faded a couple of Finnish defensemen this year because of foot speed. Niemela skates well but has some chaos. March 2002.

53 (NR) LW Daniel Torgersson, SuperElite. He has size and good speed, plus his numbers at lower levels are impressive. A January 2002, we’ll know more about him by April.

54 (NR) RW Alexander Pashin, MHL. He won’t be the first Russian chosen but he’s very interesting. Small winger with impressive skill who gives effort across 200 feet. He can score and pass. Valuable skills.

55 (NR) LW Roby Jarventie, Mestis. He’s an August 2002 and a nice size and speed combination. Has a good shot. Has played five Liiga games (scored a goal) and could spike.

56 (NR) LC Jack Finley, WHL. An August 2002 and a big pivot, he plays a fairly complete game and scouting reports have him as a good skater but without a strong first step. Could fall because of it but there’s a lot to like.

57 (NR) LC Roni Hirvonen, Liiga. Undersized two-way forward, he can play center or wing. Known more for playmaking but he scored four times in three games at the Hlinka. January 2002.

58 (NR) LW Sean Farrell, USHL. A good skater with plus skills, he is posting strong numbers this season. November 2001

59 (NR) RD William Villeneuve, QMJHL. Tall, thin two-way defenseman is spiking offensively this season (51 points in 56 games). Great passer, March 2002.

60 (NR) LD Tyler Kleven, USHL. A big shutdown defenseman (6.04, 201) with good speed and a scouting report that says he has ‘offensive tools’ but his USHL numbers are shy. January 2002.

61 (NR) G Nico Daws, OHL. Hard to know where the goalies land, but his numbers in a good league have him here.

62 (NR) Kasper Simontaival, Koovee (Mestis). Unusual skating style but he’s quick and has high-end skill. I’m uncertain of the league quality offered by Mestis, but he has posted impressive numbers all the way through his career.

MOCK DRAFT!

I’m using Bob McKenzie’s mid-season list as my guide, my selections for the first two rounds represent players I have ranked highest (but still available on BM’s list) at the time of Edmonton’s selections .

FIRST ROUND, NO. 20 OVERALL: RC Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan (QMJHL). 5.11, 171. January 2002. I keep wondering what I’m missing but Bourque appears to be strong candidate for top-10 overall based on skill set. He was strong across 200-feet at the Top Prospects Game, he’s a great skater with vision and passing ability. And he has a plus shot. NHLE: 33.7

SECOND ROUND, NO. 51 OVERALL: RW Luke Evangelista, London (OHL). Skill winger with great hands, he can play in all three disciplines and flourish. He is not the highest ranked Knights player in the draft, but I like the math, especially considering he isn’t playing a feature role (based on reports). NHLE: 28.0 (Raphael Lavoie was in the same range one year ago).

FOURTH ROUND, NO. 113 OVERALL: LW Roby Jarventie, Koovee (Mestis). I have him in my second round but doubt he goes before Edmonton’s fourth-round pick. Great shot, powerful skater. 6.02, 185, August 2002. I really like this player.

FIFTH ROUND, NO. 144 OVERALL: LC Dmitri Zlodeyev, MHK (MHL). In keeping with last year’s Russian drafting (Konovalov, Denezhkin) I’ve chosen a solid two-way center who skates well and has some skill.

SIXTH ROUND, NO. 175 OVERALL: RD Alex Cotton, Lethbridge (WHL). Puck-moving defenseman is an overager having a breakout season. Power-play quarterback, fine skater.

It’s important to know the third round and seventh round picks are gone, one in the Milan Lucic deal and the other for Nolan Vesey. So, in a seven round draft, the Oilers have five picks. I expect we’ll see some picks added but it isn’t certain because the 2020 draft is a very good one. Ideally a general manager gives his scouts a pick in every round, that hasn’t happened much in recent years for the Oilers.

On the other hand, seems the trade market involves prospects quite a bit so far this deadline. That could benefit Holland. The intel (can’t remember, Friedman?) a couple of weeks back had the 2020 first round pick, Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg and Dmitri Samorukov on the ‘no chance they’re traded’ list. Here are the prospects with NHLE:

Players of value not on the no trade list include Jesse Puljujarvi, Raphael Lavoie, Tyler Benson, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Ilya Konovalov, Olivier Rodrigue, Stuart Skinner, Joel Persson and Filip Berglund. I don’t think Jones or Benson are going anywhere, but what about Lagesson? Lavoie? And of course Puljujarvi is in play (wrote about him at The Athletic this morning, looking at what Ken Holland might be thinking). Maybe Samorukov or the 2021 first come in to play, or a ‘conditional’ is placed on the 2020 pick.

I do think the Oilers impressive run since January 1 should impact the deadline decisions. Dave Tippett has this bunch playing well. Flawed lineup for sure, but you can say that about 28 clubs in the NHL.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning gets underway at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic joins me to talk about the Oilers road trip and how that impacts the deadline. Jon Abbott from TSN1040 talks Tyler Toffoli trade at 10:45 and we’ll touch base with Andrew Peard and Corey Graham on the Oil Kings at 11. Who knows, maybe we see a trade today. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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367 Responses to "The 62 best players in the 2020 draft"

« Older Comments
  1. Klima's_Bucket says:

    As witnessed by the Coleman trade.
    If teams are willing to give up a premium for guys with term, perhaps Russell should be moved ASAP.

  2. Bag of Pucks says:

    That too!

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Maybe my memory is faulty but it seems to me every year our tumble in the standings is keyed by an injury to Klefbom.He is the straw that stirs our Dreams.

    I really hope this particular nightmare doesn’t come true again this year.

    I saw this on twitter (have not verified the math):

    Ryan Robinson
    @BlogManRy
    Since the start of the 2015-16 season this is the #Oilers record with and without Oscar Klefbom.

    With: 149-121-26 (90 pt pace)
    Without: 32-47-10 (68 pt pace)

    ———————-

    This year could be different – of course, noone can replace Klef directly, his minutes and what he does, however those coming in to the lineup in replacement are legit NHL ready d-men with attributes and those moving up the lineup have a reasonable chance at proving able.

    This is not the Oilers defensive depth of year’s past.

    I’m excited to see how the group does.

    Nurse and Jones are the key.

  4. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid is rejoining the team today and we should have an update tomorrow – everything sounds like its in order.

    Sounds like Kris Russell didn’t skate today so I don’t think he’s close.

    Neal’s set back means he’s weeks away.

    Time to dig deep boys!

    Its Willie and Caleb time – lets do this!

    I was all about adding some talent.

    Now we have been tested without Connor, Russell soon and Zack will be addedIn two weeks, , Klefbom away and back at the right time, maybe Neil as well. They might all feel like adds as they come back on the roster.

    Also, Love to see Lagesson take a huge jump forwards.

  5. N64 says:

    Cassandra: the individual ratings do factor past season results (as they should), so it corrects more slowly to current season results.

    Straight up question. I can see from his description of the model that roster changes are reflected in season. But aside from assuming it, any actual confirmation that individual players ratings incorporate ANY in season results? He does mention games in the bank and the prior year player ratings and the roster add and subtracts. And they seem sufficient to generate his current forecasts.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: I think Nurse put up similar points to Klefbom the last time Klef was injured so its not the worst thing in the world. I agree that I’d rather see Bear though. He has more offensive acumen.

    Oilers are probably going to miss the even strength minutes a lot more. Huge test for Mr.Jones.

    Oh, yes, when Nurse had the stint of PP time, he P/60 weren’t that much lower than Klef’s.

    With that said, I do think that Klef has stepped up his PP game this year, big time – huge improvement at holding the line and I give him an A for his decisions on distribution to Drai, Nuge, Connor.

    I’m not sure that Nurse is at Klef’s current level in those regards.

    Either way, I think Bear has the highest “PP potential” of them all but definitely understand the need to manage his minutes and why Tippett/Gully look like they are going with Nurse.

    They will also miss Klef on the PK, in particular with Rusty still out.

    Of course, Klef/Larsson have been facing most of the toughs at evens so, ya, he’s missed in all situations.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Holland doesn’t have a 3rd this year and didn’t want to out bid the Jets with his 2nd.

    He doesn’t have the third now – its essentially in escrow.

    With that said, Neal is now weeks away, that 3rd may come back – we can’t trade it though.

  8. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for this, and my oh my are Larsson’s Oct/Nov/Dec GF numbers ever shocking.

    Best case for everyone is the ugly results were injury/luck related and his numbers stay strong going forward.

  9. who says:

    knighttown:
    I still think teams and fans are too cautious with trades, always focusing on the new hole created versus the hole that is already there.You should think of a trade backwards…

    So would we move Nurse for Ehlers;

    Current top 6/top 4 when healthy;

    Neal/McDavid/Kassian
    Nuge/Drai/Yamo

    Klef/Larsson
    Nurse/Bear

    Potential top 6/top 4:

    Ehlers/McDavid/Kassian
    Nuge/Drai/Yamo

    Klef/Larsson
    Jones or Russ/Bear

    In that second scenario do you look at #2LD as a gaping hole that needs fixing so bad you’d consider moving Nugent-Hopkins to fill it?Almost definitely not so why would you move Ehlers to fill it?

    I don’t know if this is coming across clearly but if you look at potential trades backwards (we’d likely never move our 1LW (RNH/Ehlers) to acquire a Nurse like player to fill a spot Russell and Jones will fill ok) you’ll end up being more aggressive and get marginally better.

    Your reasoning is sound.
    I would wait a year. For clarity on Nurses next contract. And for another year of development for the young lefty dmen.
    You could then have a choice between trading Nurse or Klefbom.

  10. Dr. Taboggan says:

    The yearly Klefbom injury is another reason the Oilers cannot trade Nurse.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like they will be calling up a d-man from Bakersfield.

    Can’t imagine its Bouchard – doesn’t make sense given he won’t come up and play the left side.

    Persson doesn’t make great sense either as he’s a rightie as well.

    I don’t think they see Manning as an NHL option any longer.

    I do think it will be Persson – just going to the press-box for now.

  12. Profit says:

    Eh – I’m not going to bite (hard) on this. You’ve moved the goal posts on a discussion, yet again. Classic.

    If what we’re talking about here, which we are, is playoff percentages and models built to predict these for whole teams, then you want to reduce “noise”. I don’t care that his model summarizes individual player performances to create team composites and therefore 30 games isn’t enough to predict with. 30 games IS enough to start using current season data to predict playoff performance, clearly, because many models do exactly this (read: MoneyPuck). I never mentioned individuals at all, you did.

    Therefore that’s a fault of his model, not my analysis. If you’re using it to bet with, buyer beware.

    I started this project tracking accuracy of playoff performance models, on my own time, anonymously, because I had been closely watching Dom’s model (OG Athletic subscriber here) and had been unimpressed. And I have shared a few results with the LT crew.

    Don’t like it? Don’t pay attention.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    I guess they could call up Bouchard and have him watch from above – not that his ELC sliding is the be all and end all but it only kicks in if he plays 10 games which wouldn’t happen (I wouldn’t think).

    Yes, I know, burning that first year sometimes can be a benefit providing the 2nd contract earlier when the player is less established. I adhere to that theory but, at the same time, having a developed Bouchard for three years at under $1M (potential for $1.6M with bonuses) will be massive for the next three years.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rusty did indeed skate this morning but he’s not “anywhere in the near term”.

  15. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – HaHa: that made me laugh. On my way back from TPC Sawgrass last week, I stopped into St-Augustine (the oldest city in America), based on a recommendation. Wish I had more than a few hours on my drive back to Orlando for flight. Great

    – So I go there, get a tour from someone they set me up with. He was fantastic. He was born in St-Augustine. He gave just an incredible tour. Be he be like: “so this be like one of the homes that Martin Luther King hid out in when being chased. The owner, she is 97 and still alive, Mrs Tyson” (I remember the name, because I asked him if any relation to Mike Tyson!)

    “Mrs Tyson, she’s my friend:, he tells me “She be like: oh Hi Dr. King”. King be like, I will sign your bible and we can pray if you let me hid here”

    – I just found it such a colourful way way to communicate a story, a neat affliction. I wasn’t gansta, very soft, but intimate way to talk to someone, made you feel comfortable. Be like, nice, you know

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kyle Palmieri is being held out of the Devils’ game tonight for precautionary reasons – he’d be a great add but would be expensive – he would require the 1st rounder which I guess is OK because he has one year left of term but I still don’t want to spend a first rounder for a UFA expiry short term contract.

    He’ll be in his 30s for his next contract and I have zero desire to re-sign a player at UFA money for his decline years

  17. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Would you trade the 1st for Palmieri? Has another year on his deal, but man this team is decimated right now.

    Palmieri for 1st+Chiasson+Granlund/Manning+? Make money work, probably takes a decent prospect too ala Samorukov or Lavoie?

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’d bet you he ends up in Boston.

    Hallsy?

  19. duct tape and foil says:

    Best thinkers always question results and accept new info – you qualify.

    These numbers match the eye and Larsson has been very mobile (for him) and effective passing and shooting the past couple of weeks. If this holds he will be a very valuable guy going forward and we will need him to clean up a few rookie mistakes should he play with Jones (a very good under-study to Larsson IMHO).

    The guy plays a nasty game that you can’t play every night (and survive) except for playoffs. This becomes even more true with age. Have to pick your spots. No way I trade the guy until a reasonable replacement for his snarl (plus better mobility) is available. Maybe Willy is ready by spring 2021 and we can talk about trading Larsson then. I agree he will not age well given the game he plays, but he might be plenty attractive to SEA, and leaving him as a UFA available to SEA might be the play to retain a younger dman.

    Woodguy v2.0:
    JP questioned my conclusions on Larsson in the last thread suggesting it would correct.

    Kinger_Oil suggested I was dinging him too hard for his time back after injury.A non-mobile Dman coming back from injury make take as long as a Cruise Liner to get up to speed.

    I checked Larsson’s monthly splits and I think they may both be right.

    Last year Larsson lost his Dad and his shitty results (with good fancies) was on both goals for and goals against.

    This year after being injured in the first game he came back and has, for the season, been a bigger drag than last year on GF% (with good fancies) and its all on the “goals for” side, and mostly on SH%.

    I looked at his “on ice” shot maps and EDM got much much less shots near the near and way more from the blue line when he was on.

    This wasn’t due to Klef as Klef’s shot map without Larsson was good, with Larsson (like everyone else) it was bad.

    My supposition was that EDM was getting less “on the rush” shots with Larsson on the ice due to his poor zone exits and skating, as well as poor shot selection/pass selection in the ozone.

    Since Tippett & Playfair have stressed (and succeeded) in changing the way EDM plays in the dzone, nzone and ozone (with a stress on keeping possession) I have no doubt they have been “coaching up Larsson”

    I also have no doubt that improving after injury is playing a role.

    Of course we also have the inevitable “regression” going on, but I’ve seen enough player’s who actual results fall off the map compared to fancies and stay there that given the size of his shitty sample (1.65 seasons, 2000+ minutes) that I wasn’t convinced it would regress.

    So, here is what I found:

    Monthly GP, GF/60, GA/60 and GF% for Larsson this season:

    GP
    Oct/Nov6
    Dec14
    Jan9
    Feb8
    Season37

    GF/60
    Oct/Nov0.68
    Dec0.73
    Jan2.70
    Feb2.08
    Season1.51

    GA/60
    Oct/Nov0.68
    Dec3.87
    Jan2.32
    Feb2.50
    Season2.71

    GF%
    Oct/Nov50%
    Dec16%
    Jan54%
    Feb45%
    Season36%

    So much like Drai, Larsson had an awful December and its tanked his season long stats line.

    Here something funny (and crazy) to look at:

    December Only 5v5 GF%
    Larsson and Drai together (0-11) 0%
    Larsson apart from Drai (4-6) 40%
    Drai apart from Larsson (6-18) 25%
    Neither on ice (17-18) 49%

    The horrific Dec GF% can almost be boiled down to 2 guys….

    To sum up,

    The news of Larsson’s demise may be pre-mature.

    Thanks to those who questioned what I saw and spurred me to dig deeper.

  20. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sounds like they will be calling up a d-man from Bakersfield.

    Can’t imagine its Bouchard – doesn’t make sense given he won’t come up and play the left side.

    Persson doesn’t make great sense either as he’s a rightie as well.

    I don’t think they see Manning as an NHL option any longer.

    I do think it will be Persson – just going to the press-box for now.

    You’d think it will be Persson.

    Agree Manning doesn’t look like an option but he was fine in his NHL games earlier in the year. I could see Holland/Tippett bringing him up again (not an endorsement of such).

    Or you never know, I bet Wilde would be happy to see Keegan Lowe suit up for the Oilers again down the stretch, no?

  21. duct tape and foil says:

    Neal has the dreaded high ankle sprain in addition to a broken toe if memory serves. Shut him down on LTIR until the playoffs and keep the pick.

    As I said before, would not surprise me if we’ve seen cowboy’s last Oiler game. Hell of a warrior and thanks for the sacrifice night in and out if he’s done.

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid is rejoining the team today and we should have an update tomorrow – everything sounds like its in order.

    Sounds like Kris Russell didn’t skate today so I don’t think he’s close.

    Neal’s set back means he’s weeks away.

    Time to dig deep boys!

    Its Willie and Caleb time – lets do this!

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I guess they could call up Bouchard and have him watch from above

    I was thinking the same thing. Getting him into Oilers practices seems to be the Tippett/Holland way of easing a young player into the NHL – they did this with Lagesson IIRC. Seems counter-intuitive to recall a young player just to sit him in the press box, but familiarity with the team, players, coaches, systems and surroundings will be beneficial in the event they need him on a moments notice later on.

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Kyle Palmieri is being held out of the Devils’ game tonight for precautionary reasons – he’d be a great add but would be expensive – he would require the 1st rounder which I guess is OK because he has one year left of term but I still don’t want to spend a first rounder for a UFA expiry short term contract.

    He’ll be in his 30s for his next contract and I have zero desire to re-sign a player at UFA money for his decline years

    The only way it makes sense (to me) to trade the 1st is for a mid-20’s player with term or under team control – and even then there would have to be a playoff condition attached. Similar to the Miller trade… someone like Domi or Drouin (YMMV) would fit this mold. Personally I love Domi’s tenacity and think he’d be a perfect fit with McDavid and Kassian.

  24. ArmchairGM says:

    Rantanen (RW) out indefinitely, Palmieri (RW) trade pending. Coincidence?

  25. Andy Dufresne says:

    There are reports tht Florida is looking/willing to move Vincent Trocheck.

    Right Shot Cneter/Winger.

    26 yrs old ( will be 27 to start next year)

    Under contract for 2 more years after this year at $4.75m

    2015-16 Florida PanthersFlorida Panthers NHL 76 25 28 53
    2016-17 Florida PanthersFlorida Panthers NHL 82 23 31 54
    2017-18 Florida PanthersFlorida Panthers NHL 82 31 44 75
    2018-19 Florida PanthersFlorida Panthers NHL 55 10 24 34

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    James Neal could do us a HUGE favour by going on LTIR through the end of the season.

    Would save us a 3rd round pick to Calgary

    And

    Would provide some cap sapce for a new hire.

  27. duct tape and foil says:

    So we all keep saying McDavid needs a LW, but what is the mix of skills that works. Kassian or similar works on one wing (size, speed, snarl). On the other winger you’ve got to think the game at a high level, have elite passing, be able to keep up, be sound defensively and able to work the boards in both zones. An elite shot would be very nice. So who both matches the list and is available this week and over the summer? Of course Kreider (not coming to Canada) and Saad also has a nice range of skills, we missed the boat of Burakovsky last summer who would have been a good affordable add.

    Saad works for me but the cap next year is difficult without losing Russell and maybe Chiasson as well. You also get a lot of room by buying out Neal this summer but want to wait one more year if possible.

    Benson checks off a lot of those boxes but he needs to get quicker or he won’t arrive where he needs to be in time. A big summer for him.

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    Rumour out of Lotus Land has the Canucks trading Broseph Rammstein for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the Oilers’ 2020 First Rounder.

    The potential dealbreaker is the Canucks’ lack of cap space and HH’s concerns that BR is a generational untouchable demigod.

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    And currently: 52, 9-24-33

    “10. It is rare that top-six centres become available, but Florida’s Vincent Trocheck is generating attention. Age 26, two more years at under $5 million — teams can handle that. Won’t be inexpensive. Trocheck rushed back as quickly as possible from an ankle injury last season, and there is debate about how much mobility that may have cost him. But, again, guys like him aren’t often acquirable.”

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-tyler-toffoli-trade-vancouver-canucks/

  30. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Sounds like they will be calling up a d-man from Bakersfield.

    Can’t imagine its Bouchard – doesn’t make sense given he won’t come up and play the left side.

    Persson doesn’t make great sense either as he’s a rightie as well.

    I don’t think they see Manning as an NHL option any longer.

    I do think it will be Persson – just going to the press-box for now.

    With this mention of Manning, and the impending return of Russell, somewhere RickiTheBear has awakened.

  31. N64 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I love that there’s an ongoing mandate to mangle the name of this ‘Canucks Superstar Phenom’ into something completely unrecognizable.

    Trolling the troll. Strength in numbers

    That Borat RapmasterT is a helluva prospect!

    What keeps me up late is thinking about what Trogdor Rafterburner is going to do the streets of Vancouver when they go big and win first overall in the preseason.

  32. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The news of Larsson’s demise may be pre-mature.
    Thanks to those who questioned what I saw and spurred me to dig deeper

    I concur with JP, thank you for this. I’ve been one of those pushing back on the narrative, and I’m very grateful for the follow-up on your part.

  33. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    There are reports tht Florida is looking/willing to move Vincent Trocheck.

    Right Shot Cneter/Winger.

    26 yrs old ( will be 27 to start next year)

    Under contract for 2 more years after this year at $4.75m

    2015-16Florida PanthersFlorida PanthersNHL76252853
    2016-17Florida PanthersFlorida PanthersNHL82233154
    2017-18Florida PanthersFlorida PanthersNHL82314475
    2018-19Florida PanthersFlorida PanthersNHL55102434

    The man can sure whistle the puck. I like him wonder what happened to him the last two years, would he be a good fit with Connor are Leon?

  34. Munny says:

    Trade value doesn’t really look like it’s coming down today, does it? 2nd rounders swooping around the League like barn swallows.

  35. Munny says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    There are reports tht Florida is looking/willing to move Vincent Trocheck.

    Right Shot Cneter/Winger.

    26 yrs old ( will be 27 to start next year)

    Under contract for 2 more years after this year at $4.75m

    2015-16Florida PanthersFlorida PanthersNHL76252853
    2016-17Florida PanthersFlorida PanthersNHL82233154
    2017-18Florida PanthersFlorida PanthersNHL82314475
    2018-19Florida PanthersFlorida PanthersNHL55102434

    Wrote about this guy earlier this week. Definitely a ;payer I would look at, but don’t know if I’d want to pay the apparent rates for players with term. Cats would have to be happy with a deferred 1st, if a 1st is what they’re really looking for.

    He’d sure be useful though… can play on his off-wing with Connor, or in an elite 3C role. Great on the face off dot. Can both shoot and pass at top levels.

    He’s coming off a horrific ankle fracture Jan 2019 and is having a down year. Maybe, just maybe we could get him at a discount.

    Although, I don’t know what the hell we’d trade considering half the starting roster is on the IR.

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: The man can sure whistle the puck.Ilike himwonder what happened to him the lasttwo years, would he be a good fit with Connor areLeon?

    Did you miss this?

    Trocheck rushed back as quickly as possible from an ankle injury last season, and there is debate about how much mobility that may have cost him.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-tyler-toffoli-trade-vancouver-canucks/

  37. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I saw this on twitter (have not verified the math):
    Ryan Robinson
    @BlogManRy
    Since the start of the 2015-16 season this is the #Oilers record with and without Oscar Klefbom.
    With: 149-121-26 (90 pt pace)
    Without: 32-47-10 (68 pt pace)

    I friggin knew it. Thanks for posting those numbers.

  38. who says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Great post.

    Not to take any credit for anything, but Kinger isn’t the only one who’s been saying it might be best to give Larsson some time to get back up to speed.I’ve said as much at least 2-3 times this season.

    He’s coming in mid-season from a broken leg.Like you said, he’s not exactly fleet of foot but I don’t think he’s the Exxon Valdez either.Trading him (say for a top-6 winger) out of a not unfounded fear of an approaching cliff would be premature, without having a proven replacement.Bouch isn’t quite ready and Benning is best on the third pair.It’s a whackamole situation, and I feel he’d be sorely missed in the playoffs.

    I was roasted on this blog a week ago for suggesting that Larrson was a better dman than his stats showed. Including the almighty GF%.
    But apparently we have now found some stats that say he’s not that bad. So suddenly Larrson is a decent dman again. Okay then.
    I guess I’ll just continue to be the voice of dissent here. Or is the voice of reason?
    Wah wah wah….

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    JP + pick and/or prospect? With Gagner going back for cap.

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    The Bobfather seems to think Edmonton will just add a bottom-6er. 19 isn’t enough I suppose.

  41. buck yoakam says:

    Man…Mr Button could barely keep the smirk off his face when he basically said the oilers are done without Klefbom…what a tool…

  42. hunter1909 says:

    Okay so it’s February and late February at that and the Oilers are in 1st place in the Pacific Division!

    Klefbom down(usually 100% guaranteed disaster) Oilers still have 6 games left in their Hunter1909 mini schedule that’s seen them go 3-1 under Oilers’ version of Jean Beliveau lite Leon Draisaitl.

    Boston up next too bad Klefbom’s injured as once more Oilers in the death zone lol

    My opinion: stick Boston in the West and they aren’t a whole lot more impressive than the Calgary Flames.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    who: I was roasted on this blog a week ago for suggesting that Larrson was a better dman than his stats showed. Including the almighty GF%.
    But apparently we have now found some stats that say he’s not thatbad. So suddenly Larrson is a decent dman again. Okay then.
    I guess I’ll just continue to be the voice of dissent here. Or is the voice of reason?
    Wah wah wah….

    Let’s hope you’re 101% right on Larsson.

  44. hunter1909 says:

    buck yoakam:
    Man…Mr Button could barely keep the smirk off his face when he basically said the oilers are done without Klefbom…what a tool…

    When Lowe+MacT routinely wasted season after season that Calgary Flame hack might have had a point and for all I know he might still have one but Holland+Tipps are men with a plan so I tend to doubt his fat opinion in favour of Oilers collectively playing team hockey and 1st place in February as exhibit A.

  45. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Did you miss this?

    Trocheck rushed back as quickly as possible from an ankle injury last season, and there is debate about how much mobility that may have cost him.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-tyler-toffoli-trade-vancouver-canucks/

    Interesting. Wonder what it would cost are will cost to obtain him?

  46. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: Interesting. Wonder what it would cost are will cost to obtain him?

    LOL for what a broken ankle?

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: You’d think it will be Persson.

    Agree Manning doesn’t look like an option but he was fine in his NHL games earlier in the year. I could see Holland/Tippett bringing him up again (not an endorsement of such).

    Or you never know, I bet Wilde would be happy to see Keegan Lowe suit up for the Oilers again down the stretch, no?

    I have been thinking his “incident” closed the door on ever playing for the Oilers again and, potentially, ever playing in the NHL again.

    They could call him up for the press-box seat, again – although I just don’t like the “optics” of having him on the NHL roster.

  48. Munny says:

    Summarizing today’s action (thus far):

    Brenden Dillon with half retained from SJS to WAS for the Avs 2020 2nd rounder, and a conditional 3rd in the 2021 draft

    Sens trade Dylan DeMelo to the Jets for a 2020 3rd rounder.

    Marco Scandella from MTL to STL for 2020 2nd rounder and a conditional 2021 4th rounder.

    Still pending:

    Alex MArtinez from LAK to Vegreville, with a 2nd, a prospect, and a tray of homemade holupche as the rumoured return.

  49. Munny says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, I’m wondering if we should do a Last Reider Standing pool for PRusty and his quest for his first NHL goal?

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Neal has the dreaded high ankle sprain in addition to a broken toe if memory serves. Shut him down on LTIR until the playoffs and keep the pick.

    As I said before, would not surprise me if we’ve seen cowboy’s last Oiler game. Hell of a warrior and thanks for the sacrifice night in and out if he’s done.

    If Neal is truly going to be not available until very close to the playoffs, putting him on LTIR, given how close we are to the cap, would open up a shitload of cap room – that could make a deadline deal easier as we wouldn’t need cap out in the deal.

    With that said, given acquisition prices, I’m not sure I want Holland to be in the market for any player that has a material cap hit.

    At the same, if Neal is reasonably likely ready in 3-4 weeks, with 10 plus games left, I don’t think using LTIR bonus cushion relief is a viable option.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: The only way it makes sense (to me) to trade the 1st is for a mid-20’s player with term or under team control – and even then there would have to be a playoff condition attached. Similar to the Miller trade… someone like Domi or Drouin (YMMV) would fit this mold. Personally I love Domi’s tenacity and think he’d be a perfect fit with McDavid and Kassian.

    Yup, that is pretty much what I’m getting at. I wouldn’t give up the first for a guy like Tatar that, while not a rental, has one year to UFA – I’m not in to signing guys for their decline 30s. Daneault, on the other hand (he’ll be a “young UFA” that could warrant a 4 year re-sign).

    The advise from Friedman that Holland was contemplating offering the 1st in a deal for Coleman is surprising and concerning.

  52. leadfarmer says:

    If these are the prices can we sell Russell please

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    The news about Palimeri being held out was from a fake account.

    I’m usually very good about checking that stuff – embarrassed i got fooled.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    So we all keep saying McDavid needs a LW, but what is the mix of skills that works. Kassian or similar works on one wing (size, speed, snarl). On the other winger you’ve got to think the game at a high level, have elite passing, be able to keep up, be sound defensively and able to work the boards in both zones. An elite shot would be very nice. So who both matches the list and is available this week and over the summer? Of course Kreider (not coming to Canada) and Saad also has a nice range of skills, we missed the boat of Burakovsky last summer who would have been a good affordable add.

    Saad works for me but the cap next year is difficult without losing Russell and maybe Chiasson as well. You also get a lot of room by buying out Neal this summer but want to wait one more year if possible.

    Benson checks off a lot of those boxes but he needs to get quicker or he won’t arrive where he needs to be in time. A big summer for him.

    Speed is not a prerequisite to success with McDavid.

    Offensive hockey smarts with skill is what is required, in my opinion.

    It’s not about “getting there fast” its about “getting there at the right time”.

    What made Maroon succesfull with McDavid that one year was timing his arrival in the scoring area.

  55. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The news about Palimeri being held out was from a fake account.

    I’m usually very good about checking that stuff – embarrassed i got fooled.

    I listened to Fitzgerald on Kouleas’s show today, and while he didn’t shut the door on Palmieri, he obviously really likes the player… I think it would take a severe overpay to pry him free.

  56. marty62 says:

    I think they would but he is currently on the IR and for a concussion

  57. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, that is pretty much what I’m getting at.I wouldn’t give up the first for a guy like Tatar that, while not a rental, has one year to UFA – I’m not in to signing guys for their decline 30s.Daneault, on the other hand (he’ll be a “young UFA” that could warrant a 4 year re-sign).

    The advise from Friedman that Holland was contemplating offering the 1st in a deal for Coleman is surprising and concerning.

    The silver lining is that we didn’t make that deal. Maybe he’s in on Domi and we can all celebrate wildly when that’s who arrives in town.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu: With this mention of Manning, and the impending return of Russell, somewhere RickiTheBear has awakened.

    Sounds like Rusty isn’t close yet.

    He’s skating but not with the team.

  59. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Kyle Palmieri is being held out of the Devils’ game tonight for precautionary reasons – he’d be a great add but would be expensive – he would require the 1st rounder which I guess is OK because he has one year left of term but I still don’t want to spend a first rounder for a UFA expiry short term contract.

    He’ll be in his 30s for his next contract and I have zero desire to re-sign a player at UFA money for his decline years

    Interesting.

    Beecher, Studnicka and the Bruin’s 2020 1st for Palmieri?

  60. Munny says:

    leadfarmer:
    If these are the prices can we sell Russell please

    This reminds me…

    Wasn’t KRusty hurt at the last deadline and couldn’t be traded?

    Sumthin fishy goin down at the old cow ranch, I tells ya.

    #justcallinsick

  61. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Kyle Palmieri is being held out of the Devils’ game tonight for precautionary reasons – he’d be a great add but would be expensive – he would require the 1st rounder which I guess is OK because he has one year left of term but I still don’t want to spend a first rounder for a UFA expiry short term contract.

    He’ll be in his 30s for his next contract and I have zero desire to re-sign a player at UFA money for his decline years

    It’s a fake tweet from @NJDEVILLS

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    The Bobfather seems to think Edmonton will just add a bottom-6er. 19 isn’t enough I suppose.

    I would tend to agree – the prices are very high at this point and Holland has been clear about “the bigger picture”.

    I am concerned about Friedman’s advise that Holland was contemplating letting the first rounder go in a Coleman deal – if it wasn’t for that, I would be thinking that a Grant type acquisition is what we are looking at.

    I hope Holland is in constant communication with Ottawa.

    Namestnikov intrigues me and, of course, Ennis. Tierney as well but he’s an RFA so would be more expensive.

  63. Reja says:

    buck yoakam:
    Man…Mr Button could barely keep the smirk off his face when he basically said the oilers are done without Klefbom…what a tool…

    The list is long Button, Hrudey, Cassie and Burke would all suck endless golf balls through a garden hose for the Flames even our supposed doorknob home announcer couldn’t contain his glee when Mcdavid got hurt. Some of the folks running the league all received a ass whooping repeatedly when the Oilers were the greatest team ever assembled by one cocky mother ( Sather) most of them still hold grudges. I just love how Connor received 2 games while a whole group of weasels wouldn’t even of had that play reviewed never mind the best player in the game. From the record number of Video reviews we lost a few years back, Oilers have been pissed and shit on for years so much so that a percentage of our fan base knows no other way.

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: I hear you, it’s difficult not to agree with that. But I’ve been convinced thoroughly that Dmen don’t control on ice SV% (there is literally zero correlation for a Dman for this metric year to year). Why would they control on ice SH% more so than SV%?

    Come to think of it, pretty sure I did look SH% when I went through the SV% stuff (in the same data set) and there was likewise no correlation for Dmen year to year. I should dig up that spreadsheet.

    That aside, if Larsson is killing zone exits and rush chances why isn’t that reflected more in the underlying numbers? Larsson/Klefbom have a lower DFF than Nurse/Bear, but similar DFF% (lower event both ways). Klefbom’s DFF is less than 1 per 60 higher than Larsson’s (39.1/60 vs 38.2/60) but his on ice SH% is 3.5% higher (8.2% to 5.7%). Does Larsson own that difference?

    The gaps in those numbers don’t add up for me. Likewise Larsson with a 35.6% GF% to 50.1% DFF%. That size of gap makes no sense. It looks like mostly damn bad luck, IMO. The stuff you’re describing could absolutely be contributing too, but I can’t believe it’s the primary thing going on.

    And again, even if you do believe Larsson owns his GF% numbers, don’t you also have to believe Klefbom will continue to badly underperform his numbers? Klefbom’s PDO over the last 3 seasons (furthest back I can get easy totals) is .977. Larsson is .976 in the same span. This is on a team where Nurse, Russell and Benning are 1000 or better over the same span.

    If one player has a problem, both players have a problem, I think. Though I still lean mostly to “damn bad luck” for both of them.

    Be very, very careful about taking conclusions about large populations and applying them to individuals.

    Yes, as a population Dmen don’t effect SV% and SH%.

    Individually there is no question that some do.

    Think of it this way:

    “As a population humans are not elite athletes, less than 1%, therefore there are no elite athletes”

    Applying conclusions based on population wide analysis don’t cover ever individual.

    If they did, there would be no outliers.

    I’ve seen enough players effect things that the population doesn’t and have it be “sticky” for large samples like 2000+ minutes that when you see it you don’t dismiss it, you dig deeper into the individual.

  65. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ryan: It’s a fake tweet from @NJDEVILLS

    I’m sensing a pattern here.

  66. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have been thinking his “incident” closed the door on ever playing for the Oilers again and, potentially, ever playing in the NHL again.

    They could call him up for the press-box seat, again – although I just don’t like the “optics” of having him on the NHL roster.

    I agree 100%.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: It’s a fake tweet from @NJDEVILLS

    Yes, I figured that out a bit ago and posted the same (along with my embarrassment).

  68. leadfarmer says:

    Could we please get a recording of DSFs face when all this cap space gets used on Simmonds

  69. leadfarmer says:

    And by this I mean vancouvers

  70. pts2pndr says:

    Cool. Approaching the age most NHL D are approaching free agency. Great strategy to keep such a great player out of the NHL for so long to help your cap.

  71. pts2pndr says:

    They are leading the league in riots to Stanley cups won.

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Be very, very careful about taking conclusions about large populations and applying them to individuals.

    Yes, as a population Dmen don’t effect SV% and SH%.

    Individually there is no question that some do.

    Think of it this way:

    “As a population humans are not elite athletes, therefore there are not elite athletes”

    Applying conclusions based on population wide analysis don’t cover ever individual.

    If they did, there would be no outliers.

    Here’s a good one to look at:

    Tyson Barrie 2013-2018

    6300 minutes played

    XGF% 45.8%
    GF% 50.7%

    XGF/60 2.07
    GF/60 2.55

    6300 minutes.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    I just realized that Benning was taking PK reps along with Larsson.

    I’m not a big fan of this – PK hasn’t been one of Benning’s strong skills and one of those guys on his off-side is not ideal at all – it matters less on the PK when transition isn’t a big deal but it still creates issues with clean clears.

    I understand not wanting to ask Willie to do too much too soon but PK is a material skill of his.

  74. Bank Shot says:

    Jury is still out. Lots of fans thought Marincin would be a top four D-man going forward.

    Bear is on the right path. If he establishes himself as a solid top four D man it will be the best player picked outside the 1st since Petry.

  75. Bank Shot says:

    I don’t think there really is a consensus when it comes to drafting.

    The closest thing we get is Bob McKenzie’s list. Central Scouting makes a list but they don’t even combine Euros/NAs and players/goalies.

    All the teams have their own lists which we are kept in the dark about.

  76. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Be very, very careful about taking conclusions about large populations and applying them to individuals.

    Yes, as a population Dmen don’t effect SV% and SH%.

    Individually there is no question that some do.

    Think of it this way:

    “As a population humans are not elite athletes, less than 1%, therefore there are no elite athletes”

    Applying conclusions based on population wide analysis don’t cover ever individual.

    If they did, there would be no outliers.

    I’ve seen enough players effect things that the population doesn’t and have it be “sticky” for large samples like 2000+ minutes that when you see it you don’t dismiss it, you dig deeper into the individual.

    Which is why I mention “large sample sizes’ as being just as unreliable as the more famous ‘small sample size’ I hear mentioned so much more often.

    And, of course, is why the talent is in the interpretation rather than the data.

    Thanks from me, as well, on digging deeper on Larrson.

  77. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oh, yes, when Nurse had the stint of PP time, he P/60 weren’t that much lower than Klef’s.

    With that said, I do think that Klef has stepped up his PP game this year, big time – huge improvement at holding the line and I give him an A for his decisions on distribution to Drai, Nuge, Connor.

    I dunno. I feel like Klefbom is just sort of there.

    He makes a good outlet pass out of his own end. In the attacking zone he acts as the safety relief value and just shovels it from left to right or vice versa.

    I don’t remember the last time I saw him make a creative play that significantly contributed to a PP goal.

    He’s obviously fine there, but I think its the area where the Oilers will miss him the least.

  78. godot10 says:

    I think Stauffer meant positive impact.

  79. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bank Shot:
    Is there actually a chance for Askarov to drop to around 20 where the Oilers may be drafting?

    The verbal around this kid is phenom goaltending prospect. Seems like it would be worth it to roll the dice on a guy like that in the first round if the Oilers get a chance.

    Especially since goalies seem to be currently undervalued at the draft.

    That’s where you are going to get talent most often and reliably.

    But goalies are hard to project, risky. The best now were mostly first rounders. IF somebody thinks he’s good do it.

    Most important position on the ice and nobody gives up a quality goaler.

    Given the depth everywhere else and a generational talent on board draft all forwards and goalies IMO

    The team needs a starter for the core years of the roster.

  80. TheGreatBigMac says:

    Yep, as in New York the rent is too damn high!

  81. who says:

    hunter1909: Let’s hope you’re 101% right on Larsson.

    Well I know that’s not going to happen.
    I’ve never been 100% right on anything in my life.

  82. Munny says:

    Jason Gregor‏Verified account @JasonGregor · 2h2 hours ago

    Klefbom had a minor procedure today on his shoulder. Had been dealing with it for awhile. Initial prognosis is he will be out 2-3 weeks.

  83. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Most important position on the ice and nobody gives up a quality goaler.
    Given the depth everywhere else and a generational talent on board draft all forwards and goalies IMO

    I think Holland drafts a goalie a year till he has a starter.

  84. Bank Shot says:

    I sure hope so. I’ll be sending emails to my season ticket rep if the Oilers call that racist piece up.

    Personally think he should have been purged from the team immediately.

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for this, and my oh my are Larsson’s Oct/Nov/Dec GF numbers ever shocking.

    Best case for everyone is the ugly results were injury/luck related and his numbers stay strong going forward.

    Thanks.

    I have no doubt Tippett/Playfair coaching him up to do what they want him to do and not what he’s used to doing has taken time as well.

  86. godot10 says:

    All the usual suspects are NOT trading Darnell Nurse today. Strange how that happens.

  87. Bulging Twine says:

    Riley Sheahan’s uncle Rocky Dipietro and Darnell Nurse’s Dad were teammates for two seasons with the Hamilton Tiger Cats

  88. godot10 says:

    Bakersfield’s season is screwed already. It’s February. Evan’s been a good soldier. I think he gets the call.

    Lagesson’s gets the first shot for a couple of games.

    But if that doesn’t do the trick, I could see Benning playing LD beside Larsson, and Jones and Bouchard as the 3rd pair next week.

  89. Reja says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Riley Sheahan’s uncle Rocky Dipietro and Darnell Nurse’s Dad were teammates for two seasons with the Hamilton Tiger Cats

    Rocky had some soft hands for a bigger receiver.

  90. Bulging Twine says:

    Why soooo many injuries since the teams had the long break.
    Ever seen so many injuries?

  91. jimmers2 says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Riley Sheahan’s uncle Rocky Dipietro and Darnell Nurse’s Dad were teammates for two seasons with the Hamilton Tiger Cats

    I guess they played against Taylor Hall’s father then!

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Dmen deployment without Klef.

    From Oct 2-Nov 20 Tippett/Playfair ran a “top pair” in Nurse – Bear with almost 40% TOI vs Elite forwards, Klef-Persson just under 30% and the rest mid 20%

    Then when Larsson came back from Nov 21-today Tippett/Playfair ran more of a “top 4” like McLellan did with the top 4 getting mid 30% vs Elite forwards and the bottom pair getting under 25%.
    So I expect them to do the same with Klefbom out until (if) they trust Jones-Larsson with tougher minutes.

    This will help the Jones-Larsson pairing and I expect them to do well.

    I also expect Lagesson-Benning to continue with EDM’s excellent results on the 3rd pair.

    I’m not sweating Klefbom out much and I like him a lot.

  93. Bank Shot says:

    Hope the injuries are done now.

    Curious how many shoulder injuries it has been for Klefbom in his career now?

    4-5? more?

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    5-0 PIT over TOR in the 2nd.

  95. npanciroli says:

    Haha, love it.

  96. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Pretty sure it’s only actually two shoulder injuries since he’s been in the NHL.

  97. defmn says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    5-0 PIT over TOR in the 2nd.

    Will there be room on any sports show or paper to talk about any of the 30 other teams tomorrow?

  98. Darth Tu says:

    bah, they’ve pulled back to 5-2.

    Hart candidate Auston Matthews with the first.

  99. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The news about Palimeri being held out was from a fake account.
    I’m usually very good about checking that stuff – embarrassed i got fooled.

    Ryan: It’s a fake tweet from @NJDEVILLS

    Bag of Pucks: I’m sensing a pattern here.

    https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/breaking-former-knights-coach-gerard-gallant-named-new-jersey-devils-head-coach/

    BAG OF PUCKSsays:
    February 1, 2020 at 8:55 am
    …Wonder where Gallant will end up?…

    ORIGINALPOUZARsays:
    February 1, 2020 at 9:20 am
    Galant was hired by Jersey.

    NIT64says:
    February 1, 2020 at 9:48 am
    As per the Devills fake twitter account.

  100. flyfish1168 says:

    Munny:
    Jason Gregor‏Verified account @JasonGregor · 2h2 hours ago


    Klefbom had a minor procedure today on his shoulder. Had been dealing with it for awhile. Initial prognosis is he will be out 2-3 weeks.

    Steroid injection

  101. N64 says:

    ~ No. The latest from Toronto and Utica will clog the airwaves. ~

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Bakersfield’s season is screwed already.It’s February.Evan’s been a good soldier.I think he gets the call.

    Lagesson’s gets the first shot for a couple of games.

    But if that doesn’t do the trick, I could see Benning playing LD beside Larsson, and Jones and Bouchard as the 3rd pair next week.

    Tippett has gone to great lengths this year to have d-men not play their off-side and has spoken about it multiple times. I can’t imagine he’s going to have Benning play his off-side, something I can’t recall him ever doing in the NHL.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    I said “usually” – what’s your point?

    As far as I can tell, the point is that you are willing to take the time and effort to search for old posts in the name of deriding another on a matter that is entirely inconsequential.

  104. Ryan says:

    Hopefully just a case of subacromial bursitis.

  105. Pescador says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Why soooo many injuries since the teams had the long break.
    Ever seen so many injuries?

    Milan Kytńar said yes,
    yes I have

  106. Ryan says:

    No worries.

    I know trading a first and a good prospect would be nuts for the Oilers, but part of me would love to see Palmieri on McDavid’s wing assuming we’re not on his no trade list.

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Dmen deployment without Klef.

    From Oct 2-Nov 20 Tippett/Playfair ran a “top pair” in Nurse – Bear with almost 40% TOI vs Elite forwards, Klef-Persson just under 30% and the rest mid 20%

    Then when Larsson came back from Nov 21-today Tippett/Playfair ran more of a “top 4” like McLellan did with the top 4 getting mid 30% vs Elite forwards and the bottom pair getting under 25%.
    So I expect them to do the same with Klefbom out until (if) they trust Jones-Larsson with tougher minutes.

    This will help the Jones-Larsson pairing and I expect them to do well.

    I also expect Lagesson-Benning to continue with EDM’s excellent results on the 3rd pair.

    I’m not sweating Klefbom out much and I like him a lot.

    I’m thinking the same. Would a low cost D do any better than the farm provides?

    Hard on Woody and the kids down there, but it is also opportunity.

    Play Willie, save acquisition cost. He’s ‘ probably’ as good now as any purchase.

    It’s not a Cup year barring miracle trades or a miracle run.

    Put it in the bank for next year and use what you have.

    Talking about ‘supporting’ the room, what are the optics of acquiring a lesser player when you have home grown?

    As GM I’d support the family before adopting. Lesser trades or sometimes any trade do not guarantee anything.

  108. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Didn’t he have it last year?

    I have a thought about that. For the summer.

  109. nelson88 says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Agree 100%. At the very least you have a couple of games to monitor the results. Use them before doing another “acquire Brandon Manning” panic move.

  110. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Clifford has provided everything missing from the Leafs.

    As Wonder Boy sees it. Or somebody.

    Maybe?

    There can only be one Boy Wonder.

    He’s not in the NHL.

    IMO trading Kadri was Lowe/MacTesque.

    Reactionary, and it’s hurting big time beaucoup now.

    Other than he’s hurt of course.

  111. Ryan says:

    Iirc, they mentioned a minor procedure on his shoulder last year (in neither case did they mention which one) which was presumed to be a corticosteroid injection.

    In 2018, he had surgery on his left shoulder presumably for a labral tear though I am not sure if the details were released.

  112. Ryan says:

    The Klefbom injury kills any chance of flipping Larsson for one red paper clip or Vincent Trochek.

  113. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I said “usually” – what’s your point?

    If I had a dime for every time a company rep focused on how rare the given mistake is and a dollar for every time they forget they had done the same thing before….

    We ALL make mistakes (me more than most). If they need to be made whole that’s where the focus needs to be. Otherwise be ready to laugh and learn something in the process.

  114. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ryan:
    The Klefbom injury kills any chance of flipping Larsson for one red paper clip or Vincent Trochek.

    I’d be shocked if Holland did anything like that.

    He’s building culture first.

    Any deals will be low level in season.

    The strongest teams don’t rock the boat much because buy in means everything.

    If a survival mentality exists as it has forever it’s every man for himself.

    As in everything in life, human nature.

  115. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I just realized that Benning was taking PK reps along with Larsson.

    I’m not a big fan of this – PK hasn’t been one of Benning’s strong skills and one of those guys on his off-side is not ideal at all – it matters less on the PK when transition isn’t a big deal but it still creates issues with clean clears.

    I understand not wanting to ask Willie to do too much too soon but PK is a material skill of his.

    Showcasing for a possible trade

  116. Side says:

    Benning says Beergain Rotundy will be on the Canucks next year?

    And so begins the endless night.. the end of times.. the end of a competitive hockey league.

    It was a fun run while it lasted.. but it’s Beergain’s league now. It’s no coincidence that Klefbom opted for surgery. Don’t be surprised if he finds some excuse to milk it and retire young to avoid facing BR.

  117. jp says:

    Ryan:
    Iirc, they mentioned a minor procedure on his shoulder last year (in neither case did they mention which one) which was presumed to be a corticosteroid injection.

    A steroid injection wouldn’t take 2-3 weeks to recover from though, would it?

  118. Munny says:

    Per Leavins, KRusty did not skate today.

    This most likely means he has experienced a setback and will have to return to the beginning of his concussion protocol. That means at least two weeks from playing, probably longer.

    Either that or my alternate theory about him making sure he’s always injured at the trade deadline is true, lol…

    #ironcladNTC

  119. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Maybe Benning can masterstroke Yorgan Zafferty into signing a max contract extension once he puts his second line on LTIR.

  120. leadfarmer says:

    jp: A steroid injection wouldn’t take 2-3 weeks to recover from though, would it?

    You should see the size of the needle

  121. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks.

    I have no doubt Tippett/Playfair coaching him up to do what they want him to do and not what he’s used to doing has taken time as well.

    Yes, there’s no question that adjustment would take some time. Which Larsson didn’t really get until Nov/Dec. Hopefully he’s there now, or close. Tippett’s really done a hell of a job with the team so far.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: Showcasing for a possible trade

    Doubtful in my opinion.

    I’m highly confident the coaching staff is deploying his roster 100% with a view to winning the game.

    I don’t think Holland has any interest in trading any d-man that is able to play in the NHL right now.

    We are seeing expressly how important depth at the position is.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Per Leavins, KRusty did not skate today.

    This most likely means he has experienced a setback and will have to return to the beginning of his concussion protocol.That means at least two weeks from playing, probably longer.

    Either that or my alternate theory about him making sure he’s always injured at the trade deadline is true, lol…

    #ironcladNTC

    He did skate today – on his own, before the team.

  124. Munny says:

    Ahh… you were there.

  125. godot10 says:

    Ryan:
    The Klefbom injury kills any chance of flipping Larsson for one red paper clip or Vincent Trochek.

    Florida wants a proven legit top 4 left D entering their prim for Trochek to play with Ekblad.

  126. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Be very, very careful about taking conclusions about large populations and applying them to individuals.

    Yes, as a population Dmen don’t effect SV% and SH%.

    Individually there is no question that some do.

    Think of it this way:

    “As a population humans are not elite athletes, less than 1%, therefore there are no elite athletes”

    Applying conclusions based on population wide analysis don’t cover ever individual.

    If they did, there would be no outliers.

    I’ve seen enough players effect things that the population doesn’t and have it be “sticky” for large samples like 2000+ minutes that when you see it you don’t dismiss it, you dig deeper into the individual.

    This is definitely fair. And thanks for the Barrie example. I was thinking we don’t have many/any examples (on the D side at least) but maybe that’s not true.

  127. markymark says:

    jp,

    Finally a question I can answer. Standard protocol post Steroid injection is 7 days with no loading. Very dependent on where the injection takes place – if the joint is inflamed/injured, and the injection is intra-articular, you wouldn’t want to risk further joint injury by taking contact too early. Cortisone causes connective tissue to weaken for a period of time – hence the delay in return to sport. The other factor in return to sport is that the athlete has to typically display full range of motion and full strength through range, so in Oscar’s case, there may be some rehab needed to get him truly up to speed. There’s more factors still, but kind of beyond the scope of discussion here.

  128. Munny says:

    Munny:
    Per Leavins, KRusty did not skate today.

    This most likely means he has experienced a setback and will have to return to the beginning of his concussion protocol.That means at least two weeks from playing, probably longer.

    Either that or my alternate theory about him making sure he’s always injured at the trade deadline is true, lol…

    #ironcladNTC

    Per Oilers twitter, KRusty took his skate prior to practice today… Apologies for the false alarm above; Leavins had worded his tweet ambiguously. Still not the best of news, but not as dire as a complete reset to the protocol would be.

  129. Ryan says:

    No, not a steroid injection itself.

    I would assume he’d get the steroid injection along with some physio to rehab his shoulder.

    He’s certainly not getting a slap repair and returning to play in 2-3 weeks.

  130. Side says:

    I can confirm what you said is correct.

  131. jp says:

    Cool, thanks very much.

  132. Ryan says:

    Some hyperbole on my part.

    I had mentioned in a prior thread now would be an opportune time to sell high on the Larsson contract.

    That’s changed due to circumstances.

  133. flyfish1168 says:

    leadfarmer: You should see the size of the needle

    Better not to look

  134. Bank Shot says:

    I think this his his third one in the NHL according to my researches.

    Two surgeries now?

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Ahh… you were there.

    Nope but I did hear coach Tippett say it.

  136. duct tape and foil says:

    A couple of the teams we are fighting with have made their moves (VAN, ARZ) and others are unlikely to do much or much more (NSH, WPG) after splurging and losing last year. So IMHO that leaves us, VEG and CGY as the only teams who might do anything substantial. VEG has a pile of 2nd round picks to play with and will likely do something on defense. CGY’s troubles go deeper than a deadline rental and who knows what they do.

    As others have said, team buy-in on the Oilers is very high right now so you don’t want to move a leader or bring in someone who doesn’t fit. Don’t really want to lose the #1 or #2 pick this year unless it’s for a younger guy who is under control for a while. The 2021 picks might be on the table though along with a guy like Samarukov for the right guy. Should be an interesting week.

  137. Munny says:

    Per Adrian Dater, Rantanen’s injury doesn’t look as serious as initially feared and he has a good chance to be back for the playoffs.

  138. Munny says:

    duct tape and foil:
    A couple of the teams we are fighting with have made their moves (VAN, ARZ) and others are unlikely to do much or much more (NSH, WPG) after splurging and losing last year. So IMHO that leaves us, VEG and CGY as the only teams who might do anything substantial.VEG has a pile of 2nd round picks to play with and will likely do something on defense. CGY’s troubles go deeper than a deadline rental and who knows what they do.

    As others have said, team buy-in on the Oilers is very high right now so you don’t want to move a leader or bring in someone who doesn’t fit. Don’t really want to lose the #1 or #2 pick this year unless it’s for a younger guy who is under control for a while. The 2021 picks might be on the table though along with a guy like Samarukov for the right guy. Should be an interesting week.

    Sirius NHL has been running a sound bite of Burke-halter… they’ve been using it as a plug for one of their shows, so I’m not sure if it is even from this season, but at any rate in the clip Burke is expressing how shocked he is at what GMs are paying just to see if they can get in the playoffs… ie not for a Cup run. He goes on to say that he couldn’t do that, the “Math” just doesn’t work for him.

    I suspect that Holland’s philosophy on this matter is closer to Burke’s than it is to, say, Mike Milbury’s.

    But hot damn we have no trade chips. It’s like your parents finally gave you permission to go in the candy store and that’s the day you don’t have a dime to your name.

  139. Ryan says:

    markymark:
    jp,

    Finally a question I can answer. Standard protocol post Steroid injection is 7 days with no loading. Very dependent on where the injection takes place – if the joint is inflamed/injured, and the injection is intra-articular, you wouldn’t want to risk further joint injury by taking contact too early. Cortisone causes connective tissue to weaken for a period of time – hence the delay in return to sport. The other factor in return to sport is that the athlete has to typically display full range of motion and full strength through range, so in Oscar’s case, there may be some rehab needed to get him truly up to speed. There’s more factors still, but kind of beyond the scope of discussion here.

    That’s interesting.

    Are there any research-validated protocols in athletes? I’d like to see them.

    There’s a lot of folklore when it comes to corticosteroid injections.

    By no loading, I presume you mean the standard no strenuous activity for a week.Otherwise, you’d be implying no walking post intra-articulations injections of the hip and knee for a week.

    Most of the research on the potential impact of corticosteroid injections on joint damage was at supraphysiologic doses in animal models in really old studies.

    Obviously any athlete returning to sport would want to have full ROM and strength before returning, so I agree with that.

    Id like to learn more about any research-validated protocols you’re using.

  140. Pescador says:

    OilClog:
    https://www.milehighhockey.com/

    You posts are at the wrong location

    👌

  141. Pescador says:

    Munny: Sirius NHL has been running a sound bite of Burke-halter… they’ve been using it as a plug for one of their shows, so I’m not sure if it is even from this season, but at any rate in the clip Burke is expressing how shocked he is at what GMs are paying just to see if they can get in the playoffs… ie not for a Cup run.He goes on to say that he couldn’t do that, the “Math” just doesn’t work for him.

    I suspect that Holland’s philosophy on this matter is closer to Burke’s than it is to, say, Mike Milbury’s.

    But hot damn we have no trade chips.It’s like your parents finally gave you permission to go in the candy store and that’s the day you don’t have a dime to your name.

    Good analogy,
    Agree with you regarding Holland’s philosophy.
    Oilers have plenty of trade chips,
    no cap space is the killer.
    Those trade chips now need to be used to offload salary.
    Fucking Chiarelli

  142. Munny says:

    Pescador: Good analogy,
    Agree with you regarding Holland’s philosophy.
    Oilers have plenty of trade chips,
    no cap space is the killer.
    Those trade chips now need to be used to offload salary.
    Fucking Chiarelli

    I don’t mean to be argumentative but we technically have a ton of cap space at the moment… sitting on the IR. Shelving KRusty and Neal till the playoffs gives us over $9M AAV worth of cap space through the LTIR facility.

    What we should’ve been doing instead of trading for marginal NHLers is trading for draft picks to use as future trade currency. But hey, Brandon Manning, people.

    All we really have is the 2nd and Pujo. I think Holly is leery of using either with such a deep draft imminent. He might trade the 2nd and see if he can recoup a pick with Pujo in June, but his verbal has indicated he wants a more material return than that for the wayward Finn.

    But let’s say he’s willing to part with the 2nd (and it seems he would for the right player)… the market is telling us that at best that brings back a rental, not a longer-term solution.

    I’d want a Gobstopper or a Jawbreaker… not a Mojo.

  143. Munny says:

    Pretty sure kids today just buy whatever they want, but back in the day if we got 50 cents from our parents’ pockets, it would take us half an hour in the candy shop to figure out the most efficient way to spend that 50 cents.

    Holly gonna be stretching his dimes too. Might not see a trade till the closing bell on Deadline Day.

  144. duct tape and foil says:

    Munny,

    I’m glad we don’t have many chips because 9 times out of 10 they are wasted. Look at what WPG, CLB and NSH did last year pushing their chips into the pile. What did it get them? Nothing. St Louis got Del Zotto for a 6th, period, and won the cup.

    A majority of deadline deals are busts or merely a waste of time. Shop the last minute bargain bin and you might get something modestly useful. Keep the picks. Best deal for JP might be a young backup goalie with 1B potential (Georgiev?) this summer to replace Smith next year.

  145. defmn says:

    Munny:
    Pretty sure kids today just buy whatever they want, but back in the day if we got 50 cents from our parents’ pockets, it would take us half an hour in the candy shop to figure out the most efficient way to spend that 50 cents.

    Holly gonna be stretching his dimes too.Might not see a trade till the closing bell on Deadline Day.

    That is my expectation. When everybody who is willing to over pay to get what they want is finished he is going to see what is on the discount counter and see if he can improve the bottom six a little bit more. The only exception would be if a younger guy with term becomes available and I don’t see the TD being the time for that to happen.

  146. Munny says:

    I don’t disagree in the least. I dream of major problems being solved now, but the smart time to take care of that business is in the summer when prices are lower. And I have the same feeling about deadline deals… some help, many don’t.

  147. Munny says:

    defmn,

    I think he had his target: Coleman. Came up with a budget, went to the auction and when the prices got too rich, quietly bowed out. There’s a level of astuteness and resolve there we haven’t seen in a GM since maybe Sather.

    I have a hard time believing these prices we’re seeing will hold till the end. Look for assets teams would like to divest but are garnering little interest. Make two or three pitches… And wait. Play the sellers off against each other if you need to. If a team failing elsewhere steps in, move to one of the other pitches.

    I mean if you’re OTT and can get two 4ths for Ennis (to pull a completely random name outta my ass), are you really going to kibosh that deal and walk away with nothing just because you can’t get a 3rd?

    If you’re OTT, certainly you’ll wait till the bitter end to see if you can get something better, certainly… and we will wait with you.

  148. Munny says:

    Meanwhile our intrepid hometown reporter with the big-time national network, posts headlines like this:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/oilers-must-act-fast-secure-blueline-help-nhl-trade-deadline-looms/

    Just because you’re employed by Toronto doesn’t mean you have to do their dirty work for them.

    I’m sure most everyone reading here has already seen that article. I just needed to record its existence for posterity.

  149. duct tape and foil says:

    Munny,

    Yeah I figure he may have offered the 2021 #1 but not this year’s for Coleman because of the low cap hit next year. Steady as she goes, see what’s available in the last hour, maybe beef up the bottom 6 a bit more. Not opposed to a top 6 LW, but unless JP is the major piece going the other way, don’t care for the prices.

  150. Munny says:

    duct tape and foil: Steady as she goes

    Pretty sure this is written on the Motivational Poster hanging behind Holland’s desk… under a picture of a sleek barque under sail, carving through 4 foot whitecaps.

  151. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    I don’t disagree in the least.I dream of major problems being solved now, but the smart time to take care of that business is in the summer when prices are lower. And I have the same feeling about deadline deals… some help, many don’t.

    Picks have their lowest value at the deadline and their highest value at the draft. I’m surprised more rebuilding GM’s don’t use this simple fact to their advantage, it could shorten their timeline considerably.

    This and the inefficient use of cap space by rebuilding teams boggles the mind. Look what Montreal just did with Scandella: traded a 4th for him after his salary was half paid for the year, then a month later they retained 50% of his remaining $1M cap hit and traded him for a 2nd + a conditional 4th.

  152. knighttown says:

    The news that the Oilers were willing to move a first for Coleman but not for Hall should cause a reaction; not “what an idiot Holland is” as some suggest but rather, highlight the true positive and negative values associated with contracts.

    In true arbitrator worth (not supply and demand) Coleman is worth, what, 4 million and is paid 1.8 through his 20s.

    Hall is worth what, 9 million and will be paid 9-11 and we’ll into his 30s.

    The calculus on that means player A is worth as much or more to a team in need of cap relief, than the vastly superior player B

    Interesting.

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Picks have their lowest value at the deadline and their highest value at the draft. I’m surprised more rebuilding GM’s don’t use this simple fact to their advantage, it could shorten their timeline considerably.

    This and the inefficient use of cap space by rebuilding teams boggles the mind. Look what Montreal just did with Scandella: traded a 4th for him after his salary was half paid for the year, then a month later they retained 50% of his remaining $1M cap hit and traded him for a 2nd + a conditional 4th.

    How is retaining on Scandella to get a better return inefficient?

    His contract ends this June so it doesn’t matter to MTL.

    Am I not getting your gist?

    Are you using MTL as an example of “what to do” ?

  154. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Munny:
    defmn,

    I think he had his target: Coleman.Came up with a budget, went to the auction and when the prices got too rich, quietly bowed out.There’s a level of astuteness and resolve there we haven’t seen in a GM since maybe Sather.

    I have a hard time believing these prices we’re seeing will hold till the end.Look for assets teams would like to divest but are garnering little interest.Make two or three pitches… And wait.Play the sellers off against each other if you need to.If a team failing elsewhere steps in, move to one of the other pitches.

    I mean if you’re OTT and can get two 4ths for Ennis (to pull a completely random name outta my ass), are you really going to kibosh that deal and walk away with nothing just because you can’t get a 3rd?

    If you’re OTT, certainly you’ll wait till the bitter end to see if you can get something better, certainly… and we will wait with you.

    I agree with general posts on this topic.
    Prices too high for return.
    KH does not swing for the fence.
    If he can get a good deal at the last minute that is the play this year…

  155. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: How is retaining on Scandella to get a better return inefficient?

    His contract ends this June so it doesn’t matter to MTL.

    Am I not getting your gist?

    Are you using MTL as an example of “what to do” ?

    Yes, the MTL example is what a rebuilding team should do. Two months of a $500k retention for a 2nd round pick is excellent use of cap space.

  156. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, the MTL example is what a rebuilding team should do. Two months of a $500k retention for a 2nd round pick is excellent use of cap space.

    They should get something useful for Kovalchuk.

  157. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: They should get something useful for Kovalchuk.

    A pick or two would be fine, they can cash them at top value for a player at the draft.

  158. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: A pick or two would be fine, they can cash them at top value for a player at the draft.

    Whatever they do with them it’s about as close as you can get to a no-lose.

  159. Mr DeBakey says:

    Perhaps the greatest Center in NHL history Auston Matthews with the first.

  160. v4ance says:

    I can Chiarelli that no-lose scenario in a jiffy:

    “And breaking news… Montreal Canadiens have re-signed 36 year old Ilya Kovalchuk to a 6 year, $8 million AAV contract. The contract is front loaded with two $ 10 million signing bonuses in the first two years of the $48 million extension with a 15 team NTC clause for the duration of the deal….”

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    Big test coming up. Shit, it’s a big test with a fully healthy lineup let alone the depleted one that will be iced.

    Go Jonesy – here is you opportunity to prove you are top 4 ready.

    Go Willie – you could all jut earn you self a contract with term and a job for next year in the next couple of weeks.

  162. ArmchairGM says:

    Haha, nice.

  163. jp says:

    Alright. Yes. That is terrifying.

    Best to stay away from good bets lest they turn into bad ones.

  164. Dr. Taboggan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Big test coming up.Shit, it’s a big test with a fully healthy lineup let alone the depleted one that will be iced.

    Go Jonesy – here is you opportunity to prove you are top 4 ready.

    Go Willie – you could all jut earn you self a contract with term and a job for next year in the next couple of weeks.

    It would be unreal if after this stretch the Oilers have 2 more young D emerge as legit top-4 dmen.

  165. N64 says:

    Munny:
    Meanwhile our intrepid hometown reporter with the big-time national network, posts headlines like this:

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/oilers-must-act-fast-secure-blueline-help-nhl-trade-deadline-looms/

    Just because you’re employed by Toronto doesn’t mean you have to do their dirty work for them.

    I’m sure most everyone reading here has already seen that article.I just needed to record its existence for posterity.

    On the rise to top echelon.
    Too early to spend 1st or 2nds
    Need to protect the prospect pool.
    Mentions this years big 4 callups.
    Can’t replace Klef but should replace KRusty at the deadline
    Guy gets his notes here?

    The headline writer implies something desperate, but the article says add moar depth at Krusty level. More readable than most of his stuff with less bozo/60. Strange.

  166. Ben says:

    Sounds like Nicholson has finally admitted to Kenny that McDavid was killed on that board collision play.

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