Rain Delay

Every few months I like to do a post where I tell you my thoughts. During the season there’s little time and during the early summer we’re building to the draft, so now, in the ultimate rain delay, this seems a good time. Stand back!

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
  • Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?

GOALIES 2020-21

A reminder this is my opinion, so will run counter with my other posts when I talk about what Ken Holland might do over the offseason. All kinds of things I don’t know, such as interest in Edmonton by free-agent goaltenders.

I entered the season thinking one of Mikko Koskinen or Mike Smith would not return. Buying out Koskinen was an option for me, but now I’m thinking keep the Big Finn and set sail on Smith. I have plenty of math to back me up and some money to sign someone like Linus Ullmark. Would you consider spending over $8 million on two goalies?

At the AHL level, I think Stuart Skinner and Olivier Rodrigue will emerge as the best in a group. They’ll have one year to prove themselves before Ilya Konovalov comes over and flattens the entire depth chart.

DEFENSE 2020-21

This is such a different conversation compared to one year ago. The emergence of Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones changes the entire depth chart in a big way.

I’d find a way to offload both Adam Larsson and Kris Russell, effectively ending the ‘pure shutdown’ era of Edmonton defense. A strange item for me to endorse, but I’m trying to catch the ‘mobile blue’ train and am guessing the team can get better results with strong outlet passing and transportation.

So, I deal Larsson for a legit scoring winger, and we’ll call him Brett Connolly. Russell is dealt for a pick and there might be some retention but I bet you he returns a pick far better than most people think (let’s say a third).

My NHL pairings are Klefbom-Bear, Nurse-Mike Green (who signs) and Caleb Jones-Matt Benning. I start Evan Bouchard in the minors and use either William Lagesson or an inexpensive veteran as No. 7D.

My AHL pairings are Ryan Stanton-Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov-Filip Berglund, Philip Broberg-Paul Ladue (free agent pickup). My No. 7D is CHL grad Noel Hoefenmayer, an OHL overager who is a free agent at this time.

CENTER 2020-21

This is the key to Edmonton’s success, because the top two men are so damned good other teams simply cannot compete. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are impossible for an opponent. The key acquisition of summer (along with Ullmark and Connolly) is the third-line center. I choose Erik Haula, your mileage may vary. I also run Jujhar Khaira as No. 4 center, pass on Riley Sheahan if the money is too tight but if he’ll sign for $900,000 again Oilers should be able to afford him. That’s McDavid-Draisaitl-Haula-Khaira/Sheahan at center.

In the AHL, Colby Cave, Cooper Marody and Ryan McLeod can all play the middle and the team can sign someone to a minor league deal for the other spot. I also sign Brett Neumann out of the OHL. Small, but fast and skilled.

LEFT WING 2020-21

I think Ken Holland had the right idea at the deadline, and my first choice (Taylor Hall) is likely too expensive. So, on the portside I’m going to borrow from the great Winnipeg philosophers BTO and Let it Ride. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored 22 goals, James Neal 19, Tyler Ennis 16, Andreas Athanasiou 11. Let it ride. If push comes to shove for the cap, buy out James Neal and run Joakim Nygard or Tyler Benson.

I’ll say LW in the minors has Benson to start the season, plus Joe Gambardella and Ostap Safin. Maybe Ryan Kuffner returns.

RIGHT WING 2020-21

Brett Connolly is my big forward addition, I figure Dale Tallon wants a tough defender (Larsson) enough to move a pretty good winger who scored 19 goals last season. Kailer Yamamoto scored 11 goals in 27 games, doubt that happens again but he’s a bona fide NHL skill winger. Josh Archibald and Zack Kassian return and Anton Slepyshev signs to make things interesting. Alex Chiasson is dealt for a pick.

Kirill Maksimov and Raphael Lavoie would join Josh Currie as the skill options, I liked Aapeli Rasanen as a center option but as a winger he’s not as strong a prospect. I’ll sign him and we’ll see.

OILERS 2020-21

CONDORS 2020-21

In the coming days I’m going to drill down on the prospects and the 2020 draft. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of college and CHL signings in this part of the year, although typically we’d start seeing those things go down in the next six weeks. What would you like to read, here or at The Athletic? Please let me know. I have plenty of ideas but would like to hear yours. And to add, and hopefully without sounding like an egomaniac, I have been told by writers from other sites that the comments section is a goldmine for ideas. So, your opinions are being read!

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the Lowdown, beginning at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Our plans are to deliver you two hours of entertainment while also informing you of the latest, most accurate information about coronavirus and its impact. Guests today include Zig Fracassi from Sirius/XM NFL, we’ll talk free agency. Jason Rogers from NBC Washington and Japers Rink will have the news from the Capital, and Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will chime in on one of the weirdest Mondays of my life. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

171 Responses to "Rain Delay"

  1. Ben says:

    Not a word out of place, for me. That would be a picture perfect off-season.

    Converting JP and Russell into picks will be key to restoring any semblance of prospect depth—cuz holy baby jeebus the cupboards are bare.

  2. Ben says:

    Total aside: soliciting ideas for things I can do to keep my elementary-aged girls occupied/educated while simultaneously dealing with disastrous client files remotely. (Also incredibly grateful that I CAN work remotely.)

  3. jtblack says:

    Looks very close to *The Balance Photo* …..

    Lineup looks faster overall, more balance .. Defense is young, mobile and can pass …

    Maybe bring in a vet D like you mentioned. How many D did Edmonton use this year? wouldn’t hurt to have some cover besides Bouchard / Lagesson …

  4. dessert1111 says:

    This is a roster I could get behind.

    My only small tweak is I’d replace Neal with a cheaper Sheahan or Haas (and put Nygard on that fourth line) – both seem better fits for an extra forward.

    Because injuries, maybe you have 15 NHL one way contracts anyway.

    I think virtually every position has decent depth and coverage with this roster, with the exception of goalie – although if there is a long term injury to one of the top two guys, a stronger 3rd option should be available via waivers or a cheap trade.

  5. stevebergeron97 says:

    If Bergevin goes full blown rebuild, Gallagher has to be close to the top of Holland’s list. If sending out Larssons 4.166 mil and possibly K Russels with some retention, we’d absolutely be able to afford Gallaghers 5.5 cap hit. That would be a HUGE addition to the top six.

  6. rockinghockey says:

    I would be curious what the cost would be for this line up.
    Is Green really worth the money as he is just unable to stay healthy.

  7. Jordan says:

    That third line reminds me a lot a lot a lot of Pisani – Stoll – Torres.

    That’s a championship level 3rd line.

    I’m not sold on dumping both Russell and Larsson this offseason, as that leaves us super vulnerable to injury. Would much rather we trade the guy with the best return, and keep the other (presuming both are healthy).

    If Yamo can do some spot work on the PK, I can see us being okay to get rid of Sheehan.

    Just concerned about wear and tear on the little man’s body – PK is rough work.

    I don’t like Mike Green as 2RD. 3RD is workable for his age, but he doesn’t have the wheels to play top 6 anymore. I think it’s a good idea to have Bouchard in the AHL next year, because rookie blue can break your heart. That said, if my choices are Bouchard and Green, I’ll take Bouchard. At least he has upside.

    Can Ullmark stay healthy? Can Miko stay rested?

  8. jasperavenue says:

    On goalies, I believe if one could find Hollands comments from the past on goalies, he is not in favour of the high priced goalie. Now I expect he would make exceptions for the ultra elite, however Oiler’s don’t have one of those.
    So no I do not think he would spend $8M on goaltending, and he should not.. I do believe that a replacement for Smith is a mandatory.
    In playoffs goaltending would be exposed as the Oilers weakest position, we do not have a Moag, Fuhr, Ranford, or Cujo.
    And Sather once stated ‘once the save % goes below .910 time to move on.
    IMO
    And Lowtide, thanks for this, old men’s Vintage hockey is cancelled, the Y is closed, only thing to do is walk, drink coffee, and be thankful for this blog, and some others! Very long time reader, a silent supporter, appreciate your work – and most of the contributors. Be well.

  9. hunter1909 says:

    rockinghockey: Is Green really worth the money as he is just unable to stay healthy.

    He only got injured due to the rigors of getting parachuted into the middle of a playoff race, after being able to dog it all season in Motown.

  10. hunter1909 says:

    Ben:
    Total aside: soliciting ideas for things I can do to keep my elementary-aged girls occupied/educated while simultaneously dealing with disastrous client files remotely. (Also incredibly grateful that I CAN work remotely.)

    Children like playing board games.

  11. Halfwise says:

    My ideas for “what to write about when there are no games” are similar to what I wish the Golf Channel and SN would be doing in addition to rebroadcasting old events.

    Use this time to teach us more skills, more ways of understanding what these elite athletes and their elite coaches are doing individually and as a team to get to the top of the heap.

    For hockey, please tell me what the three main forechecking systems look like and how F3’s responsibilities change depending on how the other team breaks out.

    For curling please teach me how a top level skip sets up a steal when one is needed.

    For golf, run as many instructional videos, old and new, as you can find, for every aspect of the game.

    For general fitness, show some cool things people can do at home with what’s on hand, for strength, endurance, flexibility.

    #HelpTheCaptiveAudience #BuildCapability

  12. N64 says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, Your Death March support team needs to restore your site from backups. It’s been hacked:

    You have my entry wrong:

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/10/02/2019-20-game-one-canucks-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-866106

  13. Jethro Tull says:

    Ben:
    Total aside: soliciting ideas for things I can do to keep my elementary-aged girls occupied/educated while simultaneously dealing with disastrous client files remotely. (Also incredibly grateful that I CAN work remotely.)

    Scrabble (allowed a dictionary to teach them the word definitions after the word is played)

    Cribbage (arithmetic)

    My box of original transformers and the matching VHS. ( No educational value, but it’s kick-ass and Prime isn’t the worst character to learn ethics from.)

    Have the same problem, took day off while my wife sets up working from home, she is in insurance.

    Everyone, let’s hear your tips, we could be here a while!

  14. dustrock says:

    Thanks for always coming through LT.

    Working from home probably 3 days/week now with my wife doing the other 2.

    We will prevail.

    My joke is as a straight white male I’ll have to be resilient for the first time in my life but I think I’m ready.

  15. trencan says:

    Puljujärvi + Russell=Tolvanen + Bonino
    Benning=pick
    Halák=ufa
    Neal+Lagesson+3rd round = low pick (probably not possible option)

    Tolvanen-McD-Kass
    RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Anasthasiou-Bonino-Chiasson
    Ennis-Sheanen-Archibald
    Khaira

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear
    Jones-Green
    cheap veteran ufa

    Halák-Koskinen

    LWs can rotate based on need and actual form. I believe Tolvanen is a goal scorer and Connor can unlock his skills & instincts…:)

  16. JJS says:

    Jordan,

    I generally agree that rookie blue can break your heart but both Jones and Bear have outperformed some of the vets this year.

    The game really has changed to favour passing and footwork from the backend.

    I think Bouch in somewhat sheltered minutes with a slick skater would work. He would be the only rook in rotation.

  17. hunter1909 says:

    N64:
    hunter1909,

    Hunter, Your Death March support team needs to restore your site from backups. It’s been hacked:

    You have my entry wrong:

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/10/02/2019-20-game-one-canucks-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-866106

    Ok so prove exactly what your entry was to start with, then we can look into it.

    Thank you for your cooperation.

    PS: Are you sure this isn’t a wind up? The NHL season has been suspended, wtf does it even matter at this point.

  18. NBStone says:

    Khan Academy is a good starting point. It’s better suited for middle level and high school students but it does have elementary level resources. I just signed my kids up this morning. Hope this helps.

  19. pts2pndr says:

    Just one thought on the penalty kill. The major difference that I have seen with the Oiler PK is that each unit has more size. This allows for a larger box in that the taller players have an extended reach and when they challenge it is more difficult for the opposing player with the puck to see and the passes have to be much more precise because of reach. Khaira, Sheehan and Draisaitl have broken up many plays by tipping passes or getting sticks on pucks and deflecting them out of play. Nuge has anticipation skills which are by my viewing elite. While I understand that hard work and skill are required I believe reach and attention to detail on moving your PK box are critical.

  20. NBStone says:

    If you have a library card and you download the Overdrive app, you can access libraries and their resources remotely.

  21. Jethro Tull says:

    Scholastic also offering free online courses.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think its clear that Mikko will be back next season.

    A few weeks ago, there was some verbal from “the inside” about the potential re-sign of Mike Smith but, as we learned on Holland’s spot on The OilCan podcast, while Holland does want to bring back some impending UFAs, he wasn’t going to re-sign anyone else in-season and wasn’t in negotiations with any other current player.

    To me that is good news as I don’t think there is any rush to re-sign Smith, even if I was on-board with bringing him back to start with. The market looks to be flush with goalies this off-season, goalies of various pedigrees and likely cap hits, depending on how much cap Holland has to commit to this position.

    Not to mention, a few teams out there with multiple goalie options that may want/need to dispose of one – such as a DeSmith.

  23. Ben says:

    Alberta ed. should provide access to home schooling materials, whatever they are. Lots of ‘educational’ resources out there, but I’d like my kids to finish what they’ve started this year.

  24. N64 says:

    hunter1909: Ok so prove exactly what your entry was to start with, then we can look into it.

    Thank you for your cooperation.

    PS: Are you sure this isn’t a wind up? The NHL season has been suspended, wtf does it even matter at this point.

    Have you looked at the link? Full Kreskin.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    The defence is tough because there is so much in-flux depending on how many of Rusty/Larsson/Benning Holland wants to dispose of.

    Trying to dispose of Rusty is a no-brainer – easier said than done with his cap hit greater than on-ice performance and his M-NTC. Yes, there may be an extra team or to with some interest after his bonus is paid but lack of cap space is generally the limiting factor, not the other way around.

    Lets assume that Rusty is gone (maybe some cap retainment, unfortunately).

    If one of Larsson or Benning is also disposed of (Larsson to fill another hole, Benning to maybe add some depth at a forward position or re-coup a draft pick) then, yes, absolutely another d-man needs to be added.

    To me, that d-man is simply not Mike Green as I think he’ll be too expensive for the “veteran depth d-man” I’m thinking of.

    I’m afraid that Holland/Tippet maybe do view Green as a legit 2RD option that can “replace Larsson” full time in the top 4. I don’t think he’s “solid enough” for that role or can be relied on to be healthy for the season.

    I’d prefer the DeMelo, Edumunson, Tanev type d-man (Tanev too expensive) for a more nominal cap hit.

    I believe that management and I have different views on Green.

  26. daryl says:

    I need to stop living in the past of course, and great article LT, but these “fill the holes” topics always leave me seething. How many of these holes were filled before PC? How many other holes did he fill by creating these holes? Argh!

  27. who says:

    I think I like your Holland projections better than your own preferences LT.
    Goal. I bring Koskinen back. He has been good value for the contract this year. Who’d have thunk it? I budget 8 million for the position so if I can improve on Smith in free agency for 3 to 3.5 million I do it. If not, I bring him back for 2.5×1.
    Defense.
    Klefbom Larrson
    Nurse Bear
    Jones Green/Bouchard
    Lagesson
    I would trade Benning for a draft pick and try like hell to do the same with Russell. I haven’t seen enough of Green to form an opinion, but if Holland likes him I try to sign him for 2.5×2. He’s an expensive 3RD next year but will be nice cover for Bouchard in year 2 when Larrson is gone. If Bouchard comes on fast enough you may be able to trade Larrson at next year’s deadline. Don’t think I would if the plan is to contend for a cup next year.
    Forwards.
    Nuge McDavid Kassian
    AA Draisaitl Yamamoto
    Ennis/UFA UFA Slepeshev
    Nygaard Sheehan/Khaira Archibald
    Neal Chiasson
    I trade JP for draft picks or try and use him as a sweetener to help unload Neal. Doubt that it’s doable though.
    If I need more money to sign Ennis/UFA and a UFA 3C, then I buyout Neal. I probably have to buy him out, but if Neal stays I try and trade Chiasson. I qualify AA at 3 million. I like Connelly, but I think the bigger need is center, then left wing. Or 2 left wings and move Nuge to 3C.

  28. SkatinginSand says:

    Even more important is knowing when to be aggressive and when to deny passing lanes.

  29. hunter1909 says:

    N64: Have you looked at the link? Full Kreskin.

    Hang on. Lowetide’s been hacked, not Death March™

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Mike Green provides a nice stopgap while the youngsters develop.

    Ken Holland’s run a team this season that frankly has shown up many regular Lowetide posters as pessimistic to the extreme.

    Between Holland and Tippett the Oilers haven’t been run this well since Sather was in town, period. That’s a lot.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    How nice to trade Larsson. Helps Tampa finally win a few cups, while Oilers again take a huge step in the wrong direction.

    Am glad none of you are currently anywhere near the Oilers lol

  32. SkatinginSand says:

    Would I rather have two average starting goalies who go cold at different times for $8 or Carey Price for $10? Come on down, pair of 1Bs.

    I am probably in the distinct minority, but I am not keen on getting rid of Larsson. Am I dreaming, or does everyone rave about his game when the forwards are coming back deep and giving good outlets? He cannot make the 70 ft. stretch pass, but that is a low percentage play at the best of times. If the forwards are consistent and he knows where they are going to be, there is nothing wrong with his passing.
    edit-What Hunter said

  33. hunter1909 says:

    SkatinginSand: I am probably in the distinct minority, but I am not keen on getting rid of Larsson.

    Right before the shutdown, Larsson was hands down looking like a top defenceman, but the geniuses around here want to trade him for … I’m sure they know.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its too bad that Khaira didn’t get another 12 games an center to provide more information for next season.

    Riley Sheahan has played so much 3C this season but he is a 4C – he’s not a player that should play up the lineup like an Archie.

    So, yes, a legit 3C, to me, is the key external acquisition this off-season.

    I think the org wants to bring back Riley – I’m cool with a very similar contract to this season – only year and only a nominal increase. He’s a great PK guy but a defensive 4th liner – he hasn’t earned a raise or term like Archie has who, while also a bottom 6 guy, he has more skill, speed, tenacity and ability to play up the lineup more.

    Only one of Sheahan or Haas can be brought back I would think.

  35. Jordan says:

    ROFL

    Nicely edited. I especially like your bit about the 71 game season.

    Well played.

  36. Pretendergast says:

    I’d want to see another series of posts about farm workers for other teams. guys who may be being held back ala burakovsky this most recent year. Who are the diamonds.

  37. godot10 says:

    Tik Tok! -). #Iamabadparent

  38. pts2pndr says:

    I would say equally important because the key to success other than goal tending is moving in unison much like a dance with the movement dependant on the position of the puck. Attacking the puck carrier when vulnerable as in a bobble is what I believe you are referring to.

  39. pts2pndr says:

    In my opinion Larsson should not be moved until Bouchard has proven he is capable of second pairing right D. By my calculation that would be at the earliest trade deadline next year. This would also give Berglund sufficient time to adjust to the smaller ice surface in the AHL. Moving Larsson too soon could put the coming season in jeopardy. I don’t believe the gamble of moving Larsson this summer is worth the risk. It will be interesting to see what Holland does.

  40. pts2pndr says:

    Pretendergast:
    I’d want to see another series of posts about farm workers for other teams. guys who may be being held back ala burakovsky this most recent year. Who are the diamonds.

    You are never quite sure of the diamonds quality until you polish it or so I’m told.?

  41. pts2pndr says:

    Truth is that what they want is a top six forward and he is the one player they feel holds enough value to acquire such player with the least amount of harm to the team. I know you don’t see it that way and neither do I however their idea has merit but I feel the risk is way too high.

  42. Munny says:

    SkatinginSand: I am probably in the distinct minority, but I am not keen on getting rid of Larsson. Am I dreaming, or does everyone rave about his game when the forwards are coming back deep and giving good outlets? He cannot make the 70 ft. stretch pass, but that is a low percentage play at the best of times. If the forwards are consistent and he knows where they are going to be, there is nothing wrong with his passing.

    This echoes my thoughts too.

    Edit: I would consider it at the next TD, depending on how things are going.

  43. Munny says:

    There is no spoon.

  44. Munny says:

    I believe that’s the plan and one of the reasons teachers will be continuing to work. Might take a couple of days for them to start getting materials out.

  45. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its too bad that Khaira didn’t get another 12 games an center to provide more information for next season.

    Riley Sheahan has played so much 3C this season but he is a 4C – he’s not a player that should play up the lineup like an Archie.

    So, yes, a legit 3C, to me, is the key external acquisition this off-season.

    I think the org wants to bring back Riley – I’m cool with a very similar contract to this season – only year and only a nominal increase.He’s a great PK guy but a defensive 4th liner – he hasn’t earned a raise or term like Archie has who, while also a bottom 6 guy, he has more skill, speed, tenacity and ability to play up the lineup more.

    Only one of Sheahan or Haas can be brought back I would think.

    Archibald has more speed than Sheehan, no question. I think Sheehan has more puck skills though. Archibald fumbles a lot of pucks. There’s a reason he can’t stick in the top 6.

  46. Yeti says:

    Perhaps that depends what the return is. If you can get a decent scoring forward then I pull the trigger… if it’s only picks and prospects then the risk is too great.

  47. N64 says:

    There are many studies and experimental uses of existing drug underway on every continent. Sometimes as last resort but also some early use in full research trials. The drug they names is part of a number of them. e.g. This Chinese study in Feb.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0

  48. Munny says:

    Dr, Hinshaw, Alberta’s CMO, is in self-isolation and being tested

  49. defmn says:

    who:
    I think I like your Holland projections better than your own preferences LT.
    Goal. I bring Koskinen back. He has been good value for the contract this year. Who’d have thunk it? I budget 8 million for the position so if I can improve on Smith in free agency for 3 to 3.5 million I do it.If not, I bring him back for 2.5×1.
    Defense.
    KlefbomLarrson
    Nurse Bear
    Jones Green/Bouchard
    Lagesson
    I would trade Benning for a draft pick and try like hell to do the same with Russell. I haven’t seen enough of Green to form an opinion,but if Holland likes him I try to sign him for 2.5×2. He’s an expensive 3RD next year but will be nice cover for Bouchard in year 2 when Larrson is gone. If Bouchard comes on fast enough you may be able to trade Larrson at next year’s deadline. Don’t think I would if the plan is to contend for a cup next year.
    Forwards.
    Nuge McDavid Kassian
    AA DraisaitlYamamoto
    Ennis/UFAUFA Slepeshev
    NygaardSheehan/KhairaArchibald
    Neal Chiasson
    I trade JP for draft picks or try and use him as a sweetener to help unload Neal. Doubt that it’s doable though.
    If I need more money to sign Ennis/UFA and a UFA 3C, then I buyout Neal. I probably have tobuy him out, but if Neal stays I try and trade Chiasson. I qualify AA at 3 million. I like Connelly, but I think the bigger need is center, then left wing. Or 2 left wings and move Nuge to 3C.

    This is close to how I see it as well. I like Larsson more than most here. For both the PK and the ability to break the cycle through old fashioned physical play I want him or somebody like him as part of the RD.

    The hole to fill is 3rd line centre. I don’t want Nuge in that role for two reasons. First I don’t think it plays to his strengths and second I think it pretty much guarantees that he moves on when his contract expires.

    The real unknown since everything changed is the cap. Up until the dream of $84.5 mil died I had made peace with a six year buyout of Neal. I didn’t like it and I don’t think anybody does but I had made peace with it. Now nobody knows how much money the team will have to play with or if there will be any get out of jail free card offered to the teams.

    I don’t re-sign Smith until I see what else is available at a similar price point. I offer AA two years at $2.5 mil and negotiate from there. I only go two years on Bear as well. Too many rookie dmen never repeat an impressive first year for me to go any longer.

    As I have said before I want a veteran RD as cover and to work Bouchard into the league. Green isn’t perfect but on a one year contract I can live with that if the cost is $2.4 or lower.

    Russel and Benning are the two dmen I move on from this summer. I don’t think that will be all that difficult to pick up some draft picks. I think some here will be surprised to find how they are valued by other GM’s. Russel more than what I read here and Benning less. I guess this is based primarily on how Playfair and Tippett value them based upon TOI as much as anything else.

    I leave the Nuge -Leon -Yamo line alone. When McDavid signed for $12.5 he basically agreed that he could carry a line with middling wingers. I know there are many here who don’t like that argument but it is the reality of a capped league. It has nothing to do with what he is worth, it has to do with what can be afforded. If AA isn’t the answer then they need another answer so I expect Ennis to be retained if he is interested.

    Fix the gaping hole at 3rd line centre, get a reasonable bet on a 1B goalie and tweak at the TD next spring as needed.

  50. who says:

    defmn: This is close to how I see it as well. I like Larsson more than most here. For both the PK and the ability to break the cycle through old fashioned physical play I want him or somebody like him as part of the RD.

    The hole to fill is 3rd line centre. I don’t want Nuge in that role for two reasons. First I don’t think it plays to his strengths and second I think it pretty much guarantees that he moves on when his contract expires.

    The real unknown since everything changed is the cap. Up until the dream of $84.5 mil died I had made peace with a six year buyout of Neal. I didn’t like it and I don’t think anybody does but I had made peace with it. Now nobody knows how much money the team will have to play with or if there will be any get out of jail free card offered to the teams.

    I don’t re-sign Smith until I see what else is available at a similar price point. I offer AA two years at $2.5 mil and negotiate from there. I only go two years on Bear as well. Too many rookie dmen never repeat an impressive first year for me to go any longer.

    As I have said before I want a veteran RD as cover and to work Bouchard into the league. Green isn’t perfect but on a one year contract I can live with that if the cost is $2.4 or lower.

    Russel and Benning are the two dmen I move on from this summer. I don’t think that will be all that difficult to pick up some draft picks. I think some here will be surprised to find how they are valued by other GM’s. Russel more than what I read here and Benning less. I guess this is based primarily on how Playfair and Tippett value them based upon TOI as much as anything else.

    I leave the Nuge -Leon -Yamo line alone. When McDavid signed for $12.5 he basically agreed that he could carry a line with middling wingers. I know there are many here who don’t like that argument but it is the reality of a capped league. It has nothing to do with what he is worth, it has to do with what can be afforded. If AA isn’t the answer then they need another answer so I expect Ennis to be retained if he is interested.

    Fix the gaping hole at 3rd line centre, get a reasonable bet on a 1B goalie and tweak at the TD next spring as needed.

    Yep.
    Looks like we see things the same.

  51. Munny says:

    We need a 3C who is both effective and relatively cheap.

    Teams don’t typically trade these guys unless they’re on expiring deals at the deadline.

    Effective UFA 3Cs will typically get paid.

    This will be a tough nut for Holland to crack.

  52. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    We need a 3C who is both effective and relatively cheap.

    Teams don’t typically trade these guys unless they’re on expiring deals at the deadline.

    Effective UFA 3Cs will typically get paid.

    This will be a tough nut for Holland to crack.

    Vancouver has too many bottom six centres…Gaudette, Sutter, Beagle and Zack MacEwan all on the roster.

    They reportedly want to move Sutter who has a cap hit of $4.375 million for one more season.

    If the Canucks were to retain half that might be an answer if they’re willing to trade within division.

  53. Munny says:

    That seems a little too generous to expect in-division.

  54. Harpers Hair says:

    They’re going be desperate for cap space as they try and re-sign Markstrom, Toffoli, Virtanen and, perhaps, Tanev and Stetcher.

  55. Harpers Hair says:

    The AHL expected to cancel the rest of the season later today.

  56. Munny says:

    True but OTT is all of a suddenly missing a star 3C. VAN has options outside of the div.

  57. Munny says:

    MLB pushes Opening Day back till at least mid-May. That’s likely optimistic IMO.

  58. Ben says:

    Congratulations to the Bakersfield Condors on once again not missing the playoffs.

  59. pts2pndr says:

    McLeod has the skating and defensive ability with the question being offence. He could be our next Bear. I hope they give him a chance at training camp.

  60. New Improved Darkness says:

    I’ve come across this from more than one high-end educational authority that nuanced vocabulary is the single biggest educational margin in early grade school (aka biggest bang for buck, long term).

    Memorizing fancy words is idiotic.

    Figuring out the minor shades (mirror shades?) between naked and nude: priceless.

    ———

    Try to find something like this:

    Vocabulary Ladders: Understanding Word Nuances Level 2

    Teach related words in ten minutes a day with this cluster approach to help Second Grade students learn many semantically related words at once!

    I have not looked at that myself, but it’s on the right track. The word ladder on the cover depicts: boulder, rock, pebble, grain, speck.

    After six years of Sisyphean pre-adolescence, you finally arrive at: bare, bald, buff, unclad, natural, naked, nude, open kimono, and gloriously disrobed.

    I couldn’t find a synonym tree for panty remover. But one site helpfully suggested “ponder over”.

    ———

    Sample problem:

    She shimmied out of her monstrous ponderosities.

    Available word tree: shimmy, shake, wobble, waggle, totter, lurch, careen, seesaw, sway, shudder, reel, quake, thrash, and fishtail.

    Sample solution:

    She fishtailed out of her monstrous ponderosities with a lithe cetacean juke.

    ———

    On a more theoretic level, adults forget that the brains of children work very differently. Children are wired to absorb 10% of a hundred different things simultaneously. They do not have clean mental buckets (the neurotypical males among them have no clean buckets of any description).

    To keep someone engaged, the material needs to be demanding enough to not be completely understood on the first pass.

    For a child, they are going to want to bounce their confusion off a handy adult for ten minutes out of every hour and then they’ll go back to it again, especially if “it” is a whole different ball of wax.

    If you try to avoid that, you’ll leave them restless and under-challenged.

    Few children age nine can reliably self-challenge to an appropriate level so as not to become bored without regular adult involvement.

    I was able to do that, but I was not normal. Subsequently, in my adult life, I’ve routinely self-isolated myself for two entire weeks by accident. Which would be a great skill for the near future, if it didn’t potentially come along with also failing to take notice of precisely which day my symptoms first began. I could conceivably accident myself into having to perform a self-isolation double header.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    KHL officially takes a week off and delays their 2nd round.

    The only “Oiler” left playing, Slepyshev, gets to rest up for “a week” and maybe focus on that 2020/21 contract with the Oilers. Maybe even agree to less than $1.3M (the USD equivalent of the 90M rubbles he’s making this season).

  62. digger50 says:

    LT , I must have missed on your opinion of managing Jessie P.

    Also, did you see enough of Benson to project him at all?

  63. N64 says:

    Death March gets serious in March. How could that have possibly have needed further explanation?

  64. Munny says:

    New Improved Darkness: I couldn’t find a synonym tree for panty remover.

    Doffman.

    (Aided and abetted of course by Doff Beer)

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    Not a word out of place, for me. That would be a picture perfect off-season.

    Converting JP and Russell into picks will be key to restoring any semblance of prospect depth—cuz holy baby jeebus the cupboards are bare.

    I don’t think that Kris Russell, straight up, could be converted in to a pick. I think the best we can hope for from a Rusty disposition is $4M in cap space and I don’t think we could get that. Maybe if we retain apx $1M we could get a depth pick back (or, instead of retaining, another cap anchor contract).

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    stevebergeron97:
    If Bergevin goes full blown rebuild, Gallagher has to be close to the top of Holland’s list. If sending out Larssons 4.166 mil and possibly K Russels with some retention, we’d absolutely be able to afford Gallaghers 5.5 cap hit. That would be a HUGE addition to the top six.

    His cap hit is $3.75M, isn’t it?

    The issue is the acquisition cost and that he’s one year to UFA (I’m also not positive about his concussion recovery).

    As far as player and fit, well, hell ya.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    That third line reminds me a lot a lot a lot of Pisani – Stoll – Torres.

    That’s a championship level 3rd line.

    I’m not sold on dumping both Russell and Larsson this offseason, as that leaves us super vulnerable to injury.Would much rather we trade the guy with the best return, and keep the other (presuming both are healthy).

    If Yamo can do some spot work on the PK, I can see us being okay to get rid of Sheehan.

    Just concerned about wear and tear on the little man’s body – PK is rough work.

    I don’t like Mike Green as 2RD.3RD is workable for his age, but he doesn’t have the wheels to play top 6 anymore.I think it’s a good idea to have Bouchard in the AHL next year, because rookie blue can break your heart.That said, if my choices are Bouchard and Green, I’ll take Bouchard.At least he has upside.

    Can Ullmark stay healthy?Can Miko stay rested?

    I’m not “for” trading Larsson unless the return is real and the trade makes real sense – duh.

    I agree that trading both Rusty and Larsson exposes the group but a veteran depth guy would have to be added (same with trading both Rusty and Benning).

    I don’t think Green is or should be that guy – I think he’s too expensive and over-rated by current management/coaching staff. I don’t see him a a 2RD, maybe a potential injury fill in 2RD but not the 2RD to start the season.

    I’d prefer a Demelo, Edmundson type signing – cheaper and depth.

  68. pts2pndr says:

    Filling a hole while making another still leaves a hole. The result was the decade of darkness. Get good players keep good players. Toronto would be a good example of what happens when your D is not good as is what happened to the oilers after the Sekera injury. To not learn from ones mistakes is a recipe for continued failure.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    trencan:
    Puljujärvi + Russell=Tolvanen + Bonino
    Benning=pick
    Halák=ufa
    Neal+Lagesson+3rd round = low pick (probably not possible option)

    Tolvanen-McD-Kass
    RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Anasthasiou-Bonino-Chiasson
    Ennis-Sheanen-Archibald
    Khaira

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear
    Jones-Green
    cheap veteran ufa

    Halák-Koskinen

    LWs can rotate based on need and actual form. I believe Tolvanen is a goal scorer and Connor can unlock his skills & instincts…:)

    I think you need to retain about 50% to make the Neal trade work (and then take out the 3rd rounder) – I think.

  70. pts2pndr says:

    The question is what would they want in return.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    SkatinginSand:
    Even more important is knowing when to be aggressive and when to deny passing lanes.

    As far as “systematic changes”, the pure aggressiveness is the key to me – its not just “hey, be aggressive out there” but its knowing “when to pounce” – if there is a bobble or a pass that requires reverse movement, bamn, the killers are on it and the puck is generally cleared.

    They react quickly and without hesitation because they are smart penalty killers than know how and when “to pounce”.

    Being aggressive will be counter-productive to a skilled PP that can move the puck fast if not done properly.

  72. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think Green is or should be that guy – I think he’s too expensive

    If the cap contracts, all UFAs will be taking some sort of pay cut over the normal bidding for their services.

  73. pts2pndr says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    I’ve come across this from more than one high-end educational authority that nuanced vocabulary is the single biggest educational margin in early grade school (aka biggest bang for buck, long term).

    Memorizing fancy words is idiotic.

    Figuring out the minor shades (mirror shades?) between naked and nude: priceless.

    ———

    Try to find something like this:

    Vocabulary Ladders: Understanding Word Nuances Level 2

    I have not looked at that myself, but it’s on the right track. The word ladder on the cover depicts: boulder, rock, pebble, grain, speck.

    After six years of Sisyphean pre-adolescence, you finally arrive at: bare, bald, buff, unclad, natural, naked, nude, open kimono, and gloriously disrobed.

    I couldn’t find a synonym tree for panty remover. But one site helpfully suggested “ponder over”.

    ———

    Sample problem:

    She shimmied out of her monstrous ponderosities.

    Available word tree: shimmy, shake, wobble, waggle, totter, lurch, careen, seesaw, sway, shudder, reel, quake, thrash, and fishtail.

    Sample solution:

    She fishtailed out of her monstrous ponderosities with a lithe cetacean juke.

    ———

    On a more theoretic level, adults forget that the brains of children work very differently. Children are wired to absorb 10% of a hundred different things simultaneously. They do not have clean mental buckets (the neurotypical males among them have no clean buckets of any description).

    To keep someone engaged, the material needs to be demanding enough to not be completely understood on the first pass.

    For a child, they are going to want to bounce their confusion off a handy adult for ten minutes out of every hour and then they’ll go back to it again, especially if “it” is a whole different ball of wax.

    If you try to avoid that, you’ll leave them restless and under-challenged.

    Few children age nine can reliably self-challenge to an appropriate level so as not to become bored without regular adult involvement.

    I was able to do that, but I was not normal. Subsequently, in my adult life, I’ve routinely self-isolated myself for two entire weeks by accident. Which would be a great skill for the near future, if it didn’t potentially come along with also failing to take notice of precisely which day my symptoms first began. I could conceivably accident myself into having to perform a self-isolation double header.

    Panty remover….lemon gin

  74. Munny says:

    There’s no doubt he’s our future bet for that slot. I can’t see him being ready for it next TC.

    But let’s say he is… ideally he’d start on the 4th line and not the the 3rd, and possibly at wing (a la Horcoff back in the day) and learn the trade at the major league level before raising his quality of competition.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    In my opinion Larsson should not be moved until Bouchard has proven he is capable of second pairing right D. By my calculation that would be at the earliest trade deadline next year. This would also give Berglund sufficient time to adjust to the smaller ice surface in the AHL. Moving Larsson too soon could put the coming season in jeopardy. I don’t believe the gamble of moving Larsson this summer is worth the risk. It will be interesting to see what Holland does.

    My concern is the premise that Mike Green can “replace” Larsson at 2RD – i’m speculating here but I think Holland may have this thought (and coach T as well given Green’s usage in the smallest of sample sizes).

  76. wolf8888 says:

    How many games a year does Sutter actually play. I wouldn’t take him.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: This echoes my thoughts too.

    Edit: I would consider it at the next TD, depending on how things are going.

    Presumably the team is gearing up for a playoff run at the next deadline.

    Trading the pending UFA Larsson (which would only bring back “futures” given the pending UFA) would be a non-starter unless the team are “sellers” which we all hope is not the case.

    Would you consider selling him if he’s playing well and the team is a playoff team?

  78. wolf8888 says:

    “Duh”. Add that to your Legal Dictionary folks! Really OP?

  79. Pescador says:

    New Improved Darkness: I couldn’t find a synonym tree for panty remover.

    Seed, plant, potatoe, vodka, raspberry cooler, glory

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: This is close to how I see it as well. I like Larsson more than most here. For both the PK and the ability to break the cycle through old fashioned physical play I want him or somebody like him as part of the RD.

    The hole to fill is 3rd line centre. I don’t want Nuge in that role for two reasons. First I don’t think it plays to his strengths and second I think it pretty much guarantees that he moves on when his contract expires.

    The real unknown since everything changed is the cap. Up until the dream of $84.5 mil died I had made peace with a six year buyout of Neal. I didn’t like it and I don’t think anybody does but I had made peace with it. Now nobody knows how much money the team will have to play with or if there will be any get out of jail free card offered to the teams.

    I don’t re-sign Smith until I see what else is available at a similar price point. I offer AA two years at $2.5 mil and negotiate from there. I only go two years on Bear as well. Too many rookie dmen never repeat an impressive first year for me to go any longer.

    As I have said before I want a veteran RD as cover and to work Bouchard into the league. Green isn’t perfect but on a one year contract I can live with that if the cost is $2.4 or lower.

    Russel and Benning are the two dmen I move on from this summer. I don’t think that will be all that difficult to pick up some draft picks. I think some here will be surprised to find how they are valued by other GM’s. Russel more than what I read here and Benning less. I guess this is based primarily on how Playfair and Tippett value them based upon TOI as much as anything else.

    I leave the Nuge -Leon -Yamo line alone. When McDavid signed for $12.5 he basically agreed that he could carry a line with middling wingers. I know there are many here who don’t like that argument but it is the reality of a capped league. It has nothing to do with what he is worth, it has to do with what can be afforded. If AA isn’t the answer then they need another answer so I expect Ennis to be retained if he is interested.

    Fix the gaping hole at 3rd line centre, get a reasonable bet on a 1B goalie and tweak at the TD next spring as needed.

    I agree that 3C is the main external acquisition. I would love the Oilers to get their hands on the last year of Eric Staal’s contract.

    I also agree with not buying out Neal unless than $3.8M in savings is required for something that truly makes the team better in the short and medium term. 6 years of a dead $2M cap hit – gross.

    Do you not qualify AA then and let him got if he isn’t willing to sign for under $3M (which I’m sure he won’t – he could easily get that as a UFA if the Oilers don’t qualify him).

    I don’t know if I want Green at $2.4M or Benning at $2M.

    I guess a deciding factor could be that moving on from Green gets the team nothing and moving on from Benning gets the team an asset.

    I just fear that a Green re-signing would be on the premise of bigger minutes than I think he should be playing.

    I agree that Russell the player likely has more value for GMs than us as fans (in aggregate) label him with – at the same time, his $4M derogates from that value. I’m not so sure a draft pick can be acquired without retaining or taking on an anchor (equally short term though).

  81. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Presumably the team is gearing up for a playoff run at the next deadline.

    Trading the pending UFA Larsson (which would only bring back “futures” given the pending UFA) would be a non-starter unless the team are “sellers” which we all hope is not the case.

    Would you consider selling him if he’s playing well and the team is a playoff team?

    No, only in these two circumstances:

    1. the season has been derailed by injury or some other cause

    2. the right side of the D has so out-performed he is superfluous. Even then I’d be leery, but if another GM blew my socks off…

    (#2 is close to what you are asking, but your conditions aren’t specific enough for me to consider a trade.)

  82. pts2pndr says:

    I looked at that more as a veteran on each pairing.with Nurse Bear – Jones Green – Lagesson Larsson. This gave the oilers a third pairing that could be used for the PK that were good at breaking the cycle. I did not view this as putting Green as a choice based solely on being a better second pairing D.

  83. John Chambers says:

    Munny: If the cap contracts, all UFAs will be taking some sort of pay cut over the normal bidding for their services.

    The cap could be UNDER $80M next season.

    I suspect there’ll be something of a buyout frenzy, and top-tier players like Taylor Hall and Alex Pietrangelo taking 1-year deals for $7 or $8M while the pay scales re-calibrate.

    Chris Kreider will be happy he signed when he did.

  84. pts2pndr says:

    For me it would depend on Berglunds performance in the AHL and wether he had any playing time at the NHL by that time due injury. A lot of variables that would be considered.

  85. John Chambers says:

    I could see the NHL and NHLPA agreeing on amnesty buyouts to enable teams to adjust to a lower salary cap.

  86. Munny says:

    John Chambers,

    I think there’s a very good chance we see some famous UFAs take one year discounted deals this summer, agreed on that for sure.

  87. pts2pndr says:

    The cap hit by the trade deadline would be very small and he would be easy to move to a playoff team. The oilers may have to bite the bullet until the trade deadline however there will be teams in rebuild that might be interested in him as a short term fill knowing they can acquire a draft pick for him at the trade deadline. Just as an example to Ottawa with a fourth round draft choice for a fifth round draft choice. Then Ottawa moves him at the trade deadline for a fourth. Ottawa would get two draft choices for next to no salary which the owner would love and Edmonton gets cap relief. There are innovative ways that he can be moved question is what Holland considers what the added cap is worth.

  88. Harpers Hair says:

    Just heard the NCAA is considering extending eligibility for its athletes and extra year.

    This will impact a lot of team signings as will the unlikelihood of players burning off the first year of their ELCs as soon as they sign.

  89. PennersPancakes says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you not qualify AA then and let him got if he isn’t willing to sign for under $3M (which I’m sure he won’t – he could easily get that as a UFA if the Oilers don’t qualify him).

    That would be crazy. Horrible asset management. You definitely re-sign him and hope to get the most out of him an try to re-create a 30 goal season. (Aim for 20).

  90. Melvis says:

    pts2pndr: Panty remover….lemon gin

    yayo, blow, grout, weinstein

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    I couldn’t find a synonym tree for panty remover. But one site helpfully suggested “ponder over

    I can understand the lack of single word branches.

    If two words are allowed then when I was 18 I’d suggest “Lemon Gin”

    Now that I am near 50 the women whose opinion I value on this exact issue (had 3 conversations about exactly this lately) is “Pink Whitney” , a pink lemonade/vodka mix that clocks in at 30% ABV.

    Created by none other than ex-Oiler Ryan Whitney.

    It’s like Lemon Gin but without the grimacing (purple or not) if it’s not mixed with talent and care.

    Perhaps one branch would be “alcohol” but that seems gauche.

  92. wolf8888 says:

    Aim for 30, settle for 20?

  93. wolf8888 says:

    How many games a year does Sutter actually play. I wouldn’t take him.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’d prefer a Demelo, Edmundson type signing – cheaper and depth.

    Those are two very different players.

    Are you referring to cost?

    Also,

    If Chevy is smart Demelo won’t hit the market.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: The cap could be UNDER $80M next season.

    I suspect there’ll be something of a buyout frenzy, and top-tier players like Taylor Hall and Alex Pietrangelo taking 1-year deals for $7 or $8M while the pay scales re-calibrate.

    Chris Kreider will be happy he signed when he did.

    The NHL and the PA would never go backwards.

    That is chaos for everyone involved.

    They’d increase escrow.

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers:
    I could see the NHL and NHLPA agreeing on amnesty buyouts to enable teams to adjust to a lower salary cap.

    The PA will not agree to something that has a regressive effect on salary, regardless of how much is held back in escrow as tomorrow is better than today in terms of actual revenue.

    Non-starter.

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PennersPancakes: That would be crazy. Horrible asset management. You definitely re-sign him and hope to get the most out of him an try to re-create a 30 goal season. (Aim for 20).

    Yeah, if Tippett doesn’t like him you can probably recoup a 2nd and chalk up the other 2nd to “rental cost”

    I’ve saw him much better without the puck last 2 games.

    Mr. Tippett is a wizard.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis: yayo, blow, grout, weinstein

    Yes.

    If you’re accepting 3 word branches then “the more more” works.

  99. N64 says:

    No need to wait for the schedule to resume. If I could have given you a clearer hint I would have. If you didn’t sell stock and hoard food in remote cabins, all on you:

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/10/02/2019-20-game-one-canucks-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-866106

  100. N64 says:

    Tested today at gov’t request to get her out of isolation ASAP.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    There’s no doubt he’s our future bet for that slot.I can’t see him being ready for it next TC.

    But let’s say he is… ideally he’d start on the 4th line and not the the 3rd, and possibly at wing (a la Horcoff back in the day) and learn the trade at the major league level before raising his quality of competition.

    Ya, with respect to the prior post, McLeod isn’t really a viable NHL option out of camp let alone a 3C.

    He wasn’t even playing center full time this year in the AHL.

    Next year I expect him to be the full time 2C and have a solid development year playing in all situations.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouver has too many bottom six centres…Gaudette, Sutter, Beagle and Zack MacEwan all on the roster.

    They reportedly want to move Sutter who has a cap hit of $4.375 million for one more season.

    If the Canucks were to retain half that might be an answer if they’re willing to trade within division.

    MacKewan isn’t a center at the NHL level but that’s not really the point.

    Sutter the player would be a fine 3C for the Oilers and at not much over $2M would be a fine price – of course, his inability to play close to a full season for the last three is an issue.

  103. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, if Tippett doesn’t like him you can probably recoup a 2nd and chalk up the other 2nd to “rental cost”

    I’ve saw him much better without the puck last 2 games.

    Mr. Tippett is a wizard.

    I think this is more of AA simply learning the system and making plays to where people should be becoming more automatic.

    He looked like he knew the structure better the past two games to my eye and that was the difference-maker (plus the help that knowledge gives to making confident plays)

  104. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that 3C is the main external acquisition. I would love the Oilers to get their hands on the last year of Eric Staal’s contract.

    I also agree with not buying out Neal unless than $3.8M in savings is required for something that truly makes the team better in the short and medium term. 6 years of a dead $2M cap hit – gross.

    Do you not qualify AA then and let him got if he isn’t willing to sign for under $3M (which I’m sure he won’t – he could easily get that as a UFA if the Oilers don’t qualify him).

    I don’t know if I want Green at $2.4M or Benning at $2M.

    I guess a deciding factor could be that moving on from Green gets the team nothing and moving on from Benning gets the team an asset.

    I just fear that a Green re-signing would be on the premise of bigger minutes than I think he should be playing.

    I agree that Russell the player likely has more value for GMs than us as fans (in aggregate) label him with – at the same time, his $4M derogates from that value. I’m not so sure a draft pick can be acquired without retaining or taking on an anchor (equally short term though).

    If AA isn’t interested in signing for 2 years at less than $3 mil then I qualify him and negotiate from there but I am not convinced that he wouldn’t prefer a two year contract at a slightly lesser number. I think we have all been accustomed to the Chiarelli overpay. We’ll see what transpires but the uncertainty around the cap makes this all speculative.

    I’m not a Benning fan so whether it is Green or somebody else I am moving on from him. He has pretty much proven that he is competent as a 3rd pairing RD. Is that worth the $2 mil or more it will take to sign him? The reason I prefer to go with the ‘grizzled veteran’ is because of the verbal about how much the addition of Smith and Neal added to the psychological toughness of the roster. I think that aspect gets downplayed on this blog since it cannot be quantified but in any group dynamic I have ever been involved in there are times when the voice that has seen it all is very important. If Smith and Neal are gone – and that would be my preference – then that still needs to be addressed by another player added. And I don’t see Green as an everyday addition. I am pretty comfortable in my belief that Bouchard will be the everyday 3rd pair RD by Christmas at the latest so I see Green playing 40-50 games max for injury and maybe the first half of the season. His 35th birthday is Oct 12 this year. Not sure how that works in signing him to a one year bonus laden contract but it is worth thinking about.

    I know you are skeptical that Russell can be moved without retaining but I don’t think it is going to be that difficult. I don’t expect much back but I don’t expect we have to eat any of his cap after the July 1st signing bonus has been paid.

  105. Munny says:

    18 new cases in Alberta. Total now 74, at least one in every region.

    This is a good number–mathematically–but it might merely be an artifact of weekend testing.

  106. pts2pndr says:

    I believe he has to be qualified at 3M. Depending on the economy re Corona virus players may be forced to take less than would have been the case. Bad luck for those players becoming UFA this summer.

  107. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: MacKewan isn’t a center at the NHL level but that’s not really the point.

    Sutter the player would be a fine 3C for the Oilers and at not much over $2M would be a fine price – of course, his inability to play close to a full season for the last three is an issue.

    Of course MacEwan isn’t a C at the NHL level because, as I stated, VCR has too many of them.
    He’s been a centre throughout his career.

    Hell, JT Miller is a natural centre and takes almost all the draws on the Petterson line.

    But Sutters injury history is certainly a concern

  108. ArmchairGM says:

    SkatinginSand: and when to deny passing lanes.

    That just creates road rage. Please don’t.

  109. N64 says:

    New Improved Darkness: Memorizing fancy words is idiotic.

    Figuring out the minor shades (mirror shades?) between naked and nude: priceless.

    Just a quibble. But for the generation that perambulated to and through a family dictionary (the thicker the better) did anyone stop with those 6 syllable shady words or did they explore all those shadows of words. Petty sure at that age I was blinded by the light

    http://www.word-detective.com/2008/09/light/

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: If the cap contracts, all UFAs will be taking some sort of pay cut over the normal bidding for their services.

    From accounts, the cap won’t restrict. The CBA and ancillary provisions contain procedures to move away from a strict HRR calculation and “negotiate a cap” for “the good of the industry”.

  111. Harpers Hair says:

    Just a follow up to an earlier discussion about BC Ferries.

    Times Colonist
    @timescolonist
    ·
    4h
    Passengers on B.C. Ferries will be allowed to remain in their cars in the coming weeks

  112. N64 says:

    Dr H. said recently they are pretty steady around 1000 tests each day trying to increase capacity and in the meantime using the residual capacity to sample a little bit differently each day. Anything they or the private sector to double that again and again is going to be key. Our public labs gave us a huge head start with the US way behind us on testing capacity. The US is at least a week further down the epedmic curve and the failed testing blinded their track. But when they catch up per capita they have more clout to accelerate. No room for complacency. We desperately need to pursue as many paths as we can to add capacity quickly.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/test-test-test-who-says-as-us-flounders-with-covid-19-response/

    As the United States continues to struggle to ramp up basic testing for COVID-19, experts at the World Health Organization on Monday emphasized that countries should prioritize such testing—and that social-distancing measures are not enough.

    “We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (aka Dr. Tedros) said in a press briefing March 16.

    Dr. Tedros noted that, as the numbers of cases and deaths outside of China have quickly risen, many countries—including the US—have urgently adopted so-called social-distancing measures, such as shuttering schools, canceling events, and having people work from home. While these measures can slow transmission and allow health care systems to better cope, they are “not enough to extinguish this pandemic,” Dr. Tedros warned.

    What’s needed is a comprehensive approach, he said. “But we have not seen an urgent-enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing, which is the backbone of the response,” Dr. Tedros said.

    “The most effective way to prevent infections and save lives is breaking the chains of transmission,” he went on. “And to do that, you must test and isolate. You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected.”

  113. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think its clear that Mikko will be back next season.

    A few weeks ago, there was some verbal from “the inside” about the potential re-sign of Mike Smith but, as we learned on Holland’s spot on The OilCan podcast, while Holland does want to bring back some impending UFAs, he wasn’t going to re-sign anyone else in-season and wasn’t in negotiations with any other current player.

    To me that is good news as I don’t think there is any rush to re-sign Smith, even if I was on-board with bringing him back to start with. The market looks to be flush with goalies this off-season, goalies of various pedigrees and likely cap hits, depending on how much cap Holland has to commit to this position.

    Not to mention, a few teams out there with multiple goalie options that may want/need to dispose of one – such as a DeSmith.

    Plus one Rangers goalie, one Islanders goalie one Coyotes goalie, etc. I’m thinking that it’ll be a buyer’s market this summer for goaltending.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    The cap hit by the trade deadline would be very small and he would be easy to move to a playoff team. The oilers may have to bite the bullet until the trade deadline however there will be teams in rebuild that might be interested in him as a short term fill knowing they can acquire a draft pick for him at the trade deadline. Just as an example to Ottawa with a fourth round draft choice for a fifth round draft choice. Then Ottawa moves him at the trade deadline for a fourth. Ottawa would get two draft choices for next to no salary which the owner would love and Edmonton gets cap relief. There are innovative ways that he can be moved question is what Holland considers what the added cap is worth.

    Oh, goodness, Rusty on the roster to start the season?

    Yikes.

    In any sort of positive off-season plan, Rusty has to be gone in the spring so that $4M (less what’s retained) can be used.

    I wasn’t thinking of trading him next February but this June.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    Ullmark is an RFA this summer. How do you plan on acquiring him?

  116. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouver has too many bottom six centres…Gaudette, Sutter, Beagle and Zack MacEwan all on the roster.

    They reportedly want to move Sutter who has a cap hit of $4.375 million for one more season.

    If the Canucks were to retain half that might be an answer if they’re willing to trade within division.

    I’m not sure a 31 YO with his health is ideal. Good player though.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    For me it would depend on Berglunds performance in the AHL and wether he had any playing time at the NHL by that time due injury. A lot of variables that would be considered.

    Sure, I get what you are saying but, at the same time, the premise is still selling a roster player at the deadline for futures – a move that makes the current team worse while gearing up for a playoff run.

    Unless Larsson is having a terrible year and has been passed by many, I don’t see any sort of “selling” by Holland if this is a playoff team – in particular a playoff type d-man in a league where 10 d-man may be needed for a long playoff run.

  118. workaroundaccount says:

    Never trust a young dmans first year.

  119. Dustylegnd says:

    LOL ….isn’t that wild…isnt’ it?????…..you must be banned from Vegas tables

  120. N64 says:

    globe and mail:

    “Latitude on the issue already exists for larger vessels.”

    Van to Island crossings make sure your boat has an open level and that your vehicle can be directed there.

  121. N64 says:

    Master of Disguise. And never arrive in my DeLorean.

  122. defmn says:

    pts2pndr:
    I believe he has to be qualified at 3M. Depending on the economy re Corona virus players may be forced to take less than would have been the case. Bad luck for those players becoming UFA this summer.

    I anticipate Holland trying to sign him for less on a two year before the date when he needs to be qualified. If that doesn’t work I qualify him and go from there.

  123. TheGreatBigMac says:

    Yes but per your general fitness “things people can do at home with what’s on hand” don’t do this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mi3Kl8O3_UU

  124. Munny says:

    It’s the tracing aspect that has me concerned about bars, casinos etc.

    Transmission by an infected person who has attended one of those venues adds a layer of difficulty to the task of tracing contact.

    I know there are privacy concerns, but if I were the AGLC I would at least be requiring these venues to scan ID at the doors and save the records, while they remain open. (Some of the bigger city ones already do something like this)

  125. Pescador says:

    Don’t forget the piss jugs

  126. Munny says:

    And I don’t think it will either, but it is also not an impossibility. Unusual times.

    Even a flat cap and an uncertain future can take a bite out of contracts.

  127. Pescador says:

    Melvis: yayo, blow, grout, weinstein

    Grout?

  128. Scungilli Slushy says:

    workaroundaccount:
    Never trust a young dmans first year.

    This is very true.

    To me there are caveats. I’m no expert but to me the pattern of regression and spikes not sustained that look like progress are so often related to skill set deficiencies.

    Bear has the head and skill, but skating is a worry. He is stuck in the middle of being short for a typical D and not a plus skater like other offensive minded D that don’t have height but are stocky.

    The point is that if Jones can make reads and grow in that he may be less likely to spike and regress. Because he has the same tools offensively and is a very good skater and is marginally taller giving more .reach.

    Reach matters for D a lot more than forwards because the main part of the job is to disrupt. Any limitations mean skating has to compensate which is why I say skaters under typically NHL size usually succeed because of boots.

    These says not many can outbrain it.

  129. Munny says:

    Post bonus. Especially with team revenues down.

  130. northerndancer says:

    Consent =

  131. northerndancer says:

    consent

  132. northerndancer says:

    consent

  133. northerndancer says:

    consent

  134. northerndancer says:

    consent

  135. defmn says:

    Here’s a long ramble about my best guess for what I think Holland is aiming for this summer. I guarantee it will not be to everybody’s taste. 😉

    Because nobody knows how this is all going to play with the cap next year out I am going to suggest a hypothetical.

    I am going to set the cap for next season at the same rate as this year’s and in order to allow for signings each team will be allowed to buyout one contract without any cap implications.

    Were this to happen where does it leave the Oilers?

    xxxx – McDavid – Kassian – ??? – 12.5 – 3.2 = 15.7
    Nuge – Leon – Yamomoto – 6 – 8.5 – .9 = 15.4
    AA – xxxx – Archie – ??? – ??? – 1.5 = 1.5
    Ennis – Khaira – Chaisson – ??? – 1.2 – 2.1 = 3.3
    Nygard – Slepyshev – .87 – ???

    Klefbom – Bouchard – 4.2 – .9 = 5.1
    Nurse – Bear – 5.6 – ??? = 5.6
    Jones – Larsson – .85 – 4.2

    Green – ???

    Kosskinen – ??? – 4 + ???

    Bad decisions made by previous management – $3.8 if Calgary uses their buyout on Lucic which I think is a reasonable supposition.

    The above scenario leaves me with 3 unknown players – 1st line LW, 3rd line C and 1B G and negotiations for players currently on the roster not signed for next year – AA, Ennis, Green and Bear with Slepyshev pencilled in as per rumour.

    Neal was thanked for his services and bought out. Benning and KRussell traded for whatever Holland can get.

    So even though I abbreviated salaries above to the nearest $100,000 the total committed to the 15 currently signed players comes to $59,330,332 according to CapFriendly. Lets say Holland wants to keep $1.2 mil in the contingency fund for TD moves leaving him with $21 mil to fill the 8 slots above. I expect him to sign more than 8 guys but I think it will look a bit like this year where the salaries are all under or close to the max that can be sent to California as and when needed giving the team some depth without cap impact.

    I start, of course, with the 4 guys currently on the roster to see what that is going to cost or if I have to do more shopping. AA & Bear are RFA so I start there and offer two year contracts for different reasons. With AA it is because he has had a disappointing season and I want him to bite on a chance to redeem himself. His QO has to be for $3 mil so I offer him 2 years at $2.5 each and we settle at $2.7 for two years. If that doesn’t get it done I tender the QO and get ready for arbitration but I think that is unlikely. Very few players file after disappointing years.

    Bear is the most interesting case by far. Opinions run from 1st pair money for 8 years to my own view that he and Jones are still comps in many ways. That said my initial offer is for 2 years at $2.7 per and I go to $3.2 for 3 years if necessary. He has no arbitration rights this year. Jones contract looks like a steal at this point.

    Ennis was bought out by Minnesota two years ago and signed by Toronto for league minimum the following year bumped to $800,000 by Ottawa this year. He had a pretty good year but he is one of the guys whose contract has to fit under the max for burying in Bakersfield if it doesn’t work out. Not sure what that number will be next season so I just pick $1.2 mil as ‘close enough’.

    Green buys Holland’s pitch that he can extend his career by signing with the intention of playing 40 – 50 games for $2.4 mil. I’m not sure of the rule on bonuses for players over 35 and how that works. Green and Holland know each other and Green turns 35 on October 12 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they negotiate the ‘Smith’ contract the day after that date if they are not allowed to do so this summer. Something to watch for.

    Slepyshev gets two years at the $1.3 mil OP assures us is the equivalent of his current KHL contract so that almost all of it can be buried if necessary.Some security for him and nothing but money out of Katz’s pocket if it doesn’t work.

    So now my roster looks like this.

    xxxx – McDavid – Kassian – ??? – 12.5 – 3.2 = 15.7
    Nuge – Leon – Yamomoto – 6 – 8.5 – .9 = 15.4
    AA – xxxx – Archie – 2.7 – ??? – 1.5 = 4.2
    Ennis – Khaira – Chaisson – 1.2 – 1.2 – 2.1 = 4.5
    Nygard – Slepyshev – .87 – 1.3 = 2.2

    Klefbom – Bouchard – 4.2 – .9 = 5.1
    Nurse – Bear – 5.6 – 3.2 = 8.8
    Jones – Larsson – .85 – 4.2

    Green – 2.4

    Kosskinen – xxx – 4 + ???

    Although not necessarily those pairings or lines.

    When I add the five salaries up I am at $70,130,332. Rounding off I have $10 million to go shopping for my 3rd line centre and 1B goalie and possibly a 1st line LW if AA doesn’t work out.

    This is a pretty conservative estimate in terms of roster change. It goes into the offseason with only 3 openings if Green, Ennis & Sleppy are interested in signing on. I am not even totally convinced that Holland sees the 1st line LW spot as a priority thinking that one of Slepyshev, Nygard, Ennis or AA might do the trick.

    I expect the most pushback on my Bear contract estimate. For me, that and the 3rd line centre acquisition are the key items to keep an eye on in terms of getting to know our new GM and how he views this team.

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I agree with that.

    Tippett still has a tall pointy hat.

  137. Rugbypig says:

    Back in the day . . . yes
    Now – pick any cooler and mention “shots”

  138. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Five roster spots Ken Holland might look to ease cap issues this summer.

    https://theathletic.com/1679425/2020/03/16/lowetide-oilers-challenge-could-be-finding-relief-with-a-low-cap-ceiling/

  139. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: This is very true.

    To me there are caveats. I’m no expert but to me the pattern of regression and spikes not sustained that look like progress are so often related to skill set deficiencies.

    Bear has the head and skill, but skating is a worry. He is stuck in the middle of being short for a typical D and not a plus skater like other offensive minded D that don’t have height but are stocky.

    The point is that if Jones can make reads and grow in that he may be less likely to spike and regress. Because he has the same tools offensively and is a very good skater and is marginally taller giving more .reach.

    Reach matters for D a lot more than forwards because the main part of the job is to disrupt. Any limitations mean skating has to compensate which is why I say skatersunder typically NHL sizeusually succeed because of boots.

    These says not many can outbrain it.

    I bet we see a healthy improvement in Ethan Bears skating by the start of next seasons training camp.
    Guaranteed he is well aware of the need to improve that part of his game.
    Bet he works his ass off to make it stronger

  140. Pescador says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic:Five roster spots Ken Holland might look to ease cap issues this summer.

    https://theathletic.com/1679425/2020/03/16/lowetide-oilers-challenge-could-be-finding-relief-with-a-low-cap-ceiling/

    You harvested ideas from your own blog to write about at the Athletic?
    For shame,

  141. Pescador says:

    You mentioned in your blog post that eyes are spying the thread for Athletic content.
    With most of the population encouraged to self quarantine,
    now might be a good time for another round of 40% off a years prescription limited time offers.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers: The cap could be UNDER $80M next season.

    I suspect there’ll be something of a buyout frenzy, and top-tier players like Taylor Hall and Alex Pietrangelo taking 1-year deals for $7 or $8M while the pay scales re-calibrate.

    Chris Kreider will be happy he signed when he did.

    From accounts, its highly unlikely the cap will go down next year – I posted why (from accounts) a bit earlier in this thread.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: If AA isn’t interested in signing for 2 years at less than $3 mil then I qualify him and negotiate from there but I am not convinced that he wouldn’t prefer a two year contract at a slightly lesser number. I think we have all been accustomed to the Chiarelli overpay. We’ll see what transpires but the uncertainty around the cap makes this all speculative.

    I’m not a Benning fan so whether it is Green or somebody else I am moving on from him. He has pretty much proven that he is competent as a 3rd pairing RD. Is that worth the $2 mil or more it will take to sign him? The reason I prefer to go with the ‘grizzled veteran’ is because of the verbal about how much the addition of Smith and Neal added to the psychological toughness of the roster. I think that aspect gets downplayed on this blog since it cannot be quantified but in any group dynamic I have ever been involved in there are times when the voice that has seen it all is very important. If Smith and Neal are gone – and that would be my preference – then that still needs to be addressed by another player added. And I don’t see Green as an everyday addition. I am pretty comfortable in my belief that Bouchard will be the everyday 3rd pair RD by Christmas at the latest so I see Green playing 40-50 games max for injury and maybe the first half of the season. His 35th birthday is Oct 12 this year. Not sure how that works in signing him to a one year bonus laden contract but it is worth thinking about.

    I know you are skeptical that Russell can be moved without retaining but I don’t think it is going to be that difficult. I don’t expect much back but I don’t expect we have to eat any of his cap after the July 1st signing bonus has been paid.

    I imagine that AA would much rather take 1 X $3M than 2 X $2.5M.

    If he was a UFA right now, even coming off this very poor year, I bet you he’d be able to get more than $3M and with some term.

    I would imagine he is quite confident he could get even more after a full season with the Oiler – a bounce back year of at least some sort almost a certainty and the potential for a really plus year if he stick with 97 or 29.

    ————–

    I don’t see the Neal buyout and a trade would be difficult (is he tradeable at 3 X $2.75M if the Oilers retain half?).

    I see Neal being on the team next year.

    I could be wrong but more dead cap, ughhhh.

    With that said, I didn’t think Holland would buy out Sekera either.

    ————–

    Green can’t sign a bonus contract. The cut off for a “35 plus contract” is turning 35 by June 30 prior to the contract kicking in. He’ll be 34 until October.

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: Grout?

    Ever seen grout while it’s still in the bag without any water added?

  145. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not “for” trading Larsson unless the return is real and the trade makes real sense – duh.

    I agree that trading both Rusty and Larsson exposes the group but a veteran depth guy would have to be added (same with trading both Rusty and Benning).

    I don’t think Green is or should be that guy – I think he’s too expensive and over-rated by current management/coaching staff. I don’t see him a a 2RD, maybe a potential injury fill in 2RD but not the 2RD to start the season.

    I’d prefer a Demelo, Edmundson type signing – cheaper and depth.

    What are you basing your opinion of Green on?

  146. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I imagine that AA would much rather take 1 X $3M than 2 X $2.5M.

    If he was a UFA right now, even coming off this very poor year, I bet you he’d be able to get more than $3M and with some term.

    I would imagine he is quite confident he could get even more after a full season with the Oiler – a bounce back year of at least some sort almost a certainty and the potential for a really plus year if he stick with 97 or 29.

    ————–

    I don’t see the Neal buyout and a trade would be difficult (is he tradeable at 3 X $2.75M if the Oilers retain half?).

    I see Neal being on the team next year.

    I could be wrong but more dead cap, ughhhh.

    With that said, I didn’t think Holland would buy out Sekera either.

    ————–

    Green can’t sign a bonus contract.The cut off for a “35 plus contract” is turning 35 by June 30 prior to the contract kicking in. He’ll be 34 until October.

    Thanks for the clarification on the 35 rule. I couldn’t remember the date. The buyout of Neal was suggested as part of a league wide policy to allow one per team. Not sure if you caught that.

  147. pts2pndr says:

    I said earliest but moving Larsson depends on the return. Given current situation it might be prudent to extend him if you can at a reasonable cost. A two year extension might be something Larsson would be interested in given he would still be young enough for a big contract and things should be closer to normal by then. In the short term it gives Larsson security.

  148. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: I anticipate Holland trying to sign him for less on a two year before the date when he needs to be qualified. If that doesn’t work I qualify him and go from there.

    Interesting concept but I can’t see him doing it. Would be worth a try.

  149. leadfarmer says:

    Well we’re already being asked to conserve and reuse N95 masks and we this virus just got here.
    But all the healthcare workers will be happy to hear about all those masks sitting in the back of people’s closets.

    Hide at home everyone. All the PPIs are in Europe or in peoples basements

  150. Ryan says:

    You mean you American doctors actually have N95 masks to reuse?

    Is that for suspected or confirmed cases?

    We’re told in these parts that droplet precautions are adequate.

    Surgical mask/ face shield / disposable gown and cross your gloved fingers.

    In BC, I don’t think they have any PPE at the clinic level.

  151. Ryan says:

    Also, my understanding was that one of the major facilities for manufacturing N95 masks is just outside of Wuhan. I’d assume those masks are now being diverted for use in China.

    All of the N-95 masks people are stockpiling from Home Depot, those aren’t yet approved for medical use.

  152. duct tape and foil says:

    We just traded 2 2nd round picks for said top 6 player and we are now going to decimate RHD for more. Plus we have Slepy for free and he can play. Trading Larsson before the end of his contract is is simply reckless and I’m surprised LT even suggests it. What if Bouchard is not totally ready. What if Bear is less rather than more next year? Benning’s melon is bruised.

    RNH McDavid Kass
    AA Drai Yamo
    Slepy Haula Archie
    Neal/Nygard Shea/Khaira Ennis/Neal

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Bear
    Jones/Bouchard/Green

    Kos/??? (lots of options)

    Haula and goalie as UFA signings
    off-load Russell (retain after July if necessary)
    trade Benning for a pick
    trade Chiasson for a low pick
    keep Lagesson if Green wants too much (otherwise trade for pick)
    trade JP for a pick(s)
    walk from Haas/P Russell
    buyout Neal summer 2021

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Post bonus.Especially with team revenues down.

    Assuming a normal summer schedule (which won’t happen), a trade of Rusty after his bonus paid is far less than ideal – Holland needs that cap space opened up for the beginning of free agency so he knows how much walking around money he has.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    Here’s a long ramble about my best guess for what I think Holland is aiming for this summer. I guarantee it will not be to everybody’s taste.

    Because nobody knows how this is all going to play with the cap next year out I am going to suggest a hypothetical.

    I am going to set the cap for next season at the same rate as this year’s and in order to allow for signings each team will be allowed to buyout one contract without any cap implications.

    Were this to happen where does it leave the Oilers?

    xxxx – McDavid – Kassian – ??? – 12.5 – 3.2 = 15.7
    Nuge – Leon – Yamomoto – 6 – 8.5 – .9 = 15.4
    AA – xxxx – Archie – ??? – ??? – 1.5 = 1.5
    Ennis – Khaira – Chaisson – ??? – 1.2 – 2.1 = 3.3
    Nygard – Slepyshev – .87 – ???

    Klefbom – Bouchard – 4.2 – .9 = 5.1
    Nurse – Bear – 5.6 – ??? = 5.6
    Jones – Larsson – .85 – 4.2

    Green – ???

    Kosskinen – ??? – 4 + ???

    Bad decisions made by previous management – $3.8 if Calgary uses their buyout on Lucic which I think is a reasonable supposition.

    The above scenario leaves me with 3 unknown players – 1st line LW, 3rd line C and 1B G and negotiations for players currently on the roster not signed for next year – AA, Ennis, Green and Bear with Slepyshev pencilled in as per rumour.

    Neal was thanked for his services and bought out. Benning and KRussell traded for whatever Holland can get.

    So even though I abbreviated salaries above to the nearest $100,000 the total committed to the 15 currently signed players comes to $59,330,332 according to CapFriendly. Lets say Holland wants to keep $1.2 mil in the contingency fund for TD moves leaving him with $21 mil to fill the 8 slots above. I expect him to sign more than 8 guys but I think it will look a bit like this year where the salaries are all under or close to the max that can be sent to California as and when needed giving the team some depth without cap impact.

    I start, of course, with the 4 guys currently on the roster to see what that is going to cost or if I have to do more shopping. AA & Bear are RFA so I start there and offer two year contracts for different reasons. With AA it is because he has had a disappointing season and I want him to bite on a chance to redeem himself. His QO has to be for $3 mil so I offer him 2 years at $2.5 each and we settle at $2.7 for two years. If that doesn’t get it done I tender the QO and get ready for arbitration but I think that is unlikely. Very few players file after disappointing years.

    Bear is the most interesting case by far. Opinions run from 1st pair money for 8 years to my own view that he and Jones are still comps in many ways. That said my initial offer is for 2 years at $2.7 per and I go to $3.2 for 3 years if necessary. He has no arbitration rights this year. Jones contract looks like a steal at this point.

    Ennis was bought out by Minnesota two years ago and signed by Toronto for league minimum the following year bumped to $800,000 by Ottawa this year. He had a pretty good year but he is one of the guys whose contract has to fit under the max for burying in Bakersfield if it doesn’t work out. Not sure what that number will be next season so I just pick $1.2 mil as ‘close enough’.

    Green buys Holland’s pitch that he can extend his career by signing with the intention of playing 40 – 50 games for $2.4 mil. I’m not sure of the rule on bonuses for players over 35 and how that works. Green and Holland know each other and Green turns 35 on October 12 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they negotiate the ‘Smith’ contract the day after that date if they are not allowed to do so this summer. Something to watch for.

    Slepyshev gets two years at the $1.3 mil OP assures us is the equivalent of his current KHL contract so that almost all of it can be buried if necessary.Some security for him and nothing but money out of Katz’s pocket if it doesn’t work.

    So now my roster looks like this.

    xxxx – McDavid – Kassian – ??? – 12.5 – 3.2 = 15.7
    Nuge – Leon – Yamomoto – 6 – 8.5 – .9 = 15.4
    AA – xxxx – Archie – 2.7 – ??? – 1.5 = 4.2
    Ennis – Khaira – Chaisson – 1.2 – 1.2 – 2.1 = 4.5
    Nygard – Slepyshev – .87 – 1.3 = 2.2

    Klefbom – Bouchard – 4.2 – .9 = 5.1
    Nurse – Bear – 5.6 – 3.2 = 8.8
    Jones – Larsson – .85 – 4.2

    Green – 2.4

    Kosskinen – xxx – 4 + ???

    Although not necessarily those pairings or lines.

    When I add the five salaries up I am at $70,130,332. Rounding off I have $10 million to go shopping for my 3rd line centre and 1B goalie and possibly a 1st line LW if AA doesn’t work out.

    This is a pretty conservative estimate in terms of roster change. It goes into the offseason with only 3 openings if Green, Ennis & Sleppy are interested in signing on. I am not even totally convinced that Holland sees the 1st line LW spot as a priority thinking that one of Slepyshev, Nygard, Ennis or AA might do the trick.

    I expect the most pushback on my Bear contract estimate. For me, that and the 3rd line centre acquisition are the key items to keep an eye on in terms of getting to know our new GM and how he views this team.

    This is a solid post and I appreciate the effort that went in to it.

    I will nitpick on a couple points:

    – I think its far from certain that there will be a free buyout (not that you implied it was certain) and I don’t think getting rid of an anchor $5.75M will be that easy.

    – I can’t imagine AA signs for any term under his QO – why would he lock in for a second year based off of a poor season. If he was a UFA, he’d get more than $3M and for term – he’ll happily take a 1 year deal at at least $3M and be confidant in himself and a much bigger next contract – I would think.

  155. Pescador says:

    I used to be a tile setter,
    never occurred to me that people snort it
    Don’t knock it I guess

  156. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Assuming a normal summer schedule (which won’t happen), a trade of Rusty after his bonus paid is far less than ideal – Holland needs that cap space opened up for the beginning of free agency so he knows how much walking around money he has.

    He can have the trade in his back pocket for KRussell and go over the cap by 10% if necessary until the season starts. I think that works as well.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I bet we see a healthy improvement in Ethan Bears skating by the start of next seasons training camp.
    Guaranteed he is well aware of the need to improve that part of his game.
    Bet he works his ass off to make it stronger

    Didn’t he already do this last off-season?

    I mean, he’s got the drive and work ethic but how many off-seasons in a row can a player improve his skating at this stage of his career?

  158. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is a solid post and I appreciate the effort that went in to it.

    I will nitpick on a couple points:

    – I think its far from certain that there will be a free buyout (not that you implied it was certain) and I don’t think getting rid of an anchor $5.75M will be that easy.

    – I can’t imagine AA signs for any term under his QO – why would he lock in for a second year based off of a poor season. If he was a UFA, he’d get more than $3M and for term – he’ll happily take a 1 year deal at at least $3M and be confidant in himself and a much bigger next contract – I would think.

    Thanks for the compliment. I was sure I would get more pushback on the Bear contract than AA.

    You could very well be right on AA but you will note I have him signed at only 300,000 less than his QO so it doesn’t materially affect the overall gist of what Holland has to work with.

    I went with the buyout for each team because they did it before and it seems to me one of the simpler solutions to help them figure out a transition year. Far from certain but I wouldn’t regard it as a huge surprise if it came to pass. If not I bite hard and accept the 1.9 mil penalty for 6 years. No, not happy about it but the team is close to a contender imo and in a cap league I think you have to make your move when the window opens.

    Anyway, I thought adding the numbers gives some context to what is possible. Unlike Lowetide I don’t know what is available for the positions we are looking to fill so had no names to suggest but I could at least show what kind of money could be involved so that if somebody had a better player for Green, for example, at half the cost then we can build from there but as you – I think – mentioned there is little possibility that the cap will be allowed to go down and even less that it will go up so I am working from 81.5 for now.

  159. defmn says:

    This in from Boston Globe hockey writer Kevin Paul Dupont @GlobeKPD: “A week ago tonight, Bruins finalized plans for media and players to remain 6-feet apart for interviews. Tonight, no NHL game will be played until mid-May at earliest. All players have been told they can leave their respective cities to live elsewhere next 6-7 weeks.”

  160. Munny says:

    Deal-in-principle.

  161. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan,

    The main difference between medical grade and non medical grade is fluid resistance so unless you are expecting a stream of fluid such as in surgery for routine patient care you are probably not going to notice a difference

  162. Munny says:

    Two cases in Cochrane (where I live) originating from the French Immersion school (K-8).

    All families with élèves in the school have been asked to self-isolate.

    I believe these two cases are included in the 18 new cases today.

    Exposure is believed to be March 10.

  163. Munny says:

    defmn,

    I think Holly will be able to get Bear for less than your numbers for each of the respective term lengths.

  164. defmn says:

    Munny:
    defmn,

    I think Holly will be able to get Bear for less than your numbers for each of the respective term lengths.

    I think he should be able to as well but I was certain that the consensus here had it considerably higher and I was going to be laughed off the site at the numbers I used. He’s 30 games of opportunity ahead of Jones who he has been progressing alongside since they were drafted. I think that is important to the contract discussion. The role he played this past season is the other side of the discussion.

  165. Yegfoundation says:

    northerndancer,

    Well played and very true.

  166. Munny says:

    Fortunately, that role wasn’t an offensive one. TOI, however, seems to be getting paid lately.

    (And is the principal reason why I think the Nurse contract was fair).

  167. Munny says:

    Good info, thank you.

  168. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic

    How do you propose acquiring Ullmark? He’s not a UFA this summer.

  169. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: Slepyshev gets two years at the $1.3 mil OP assures us is the equivalent of his current KHL contract

    The current equivalent is $1,198,874.57, but that’s without taking into account Russian taxes. One of our Russian-based correspondents could clarify, but I was under the impression that their taxes were quite a bit lower than ours.

    In any case, it looks like Slepyshev’s pocketbook will have to take a hit to pursue his NHL dream.

  170. Munny says:

    There has been a lot of FX disruption since OP first published this number.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca