Reason to Believe

How much offense should we expect from Tyler Benson as an NHL player? Second round in a good draft, injuries in junior but solid numbers when healthy, impressive AHL campaign at 20 and a lesser season at the same level age 21.

Is he a lock for top-9 minutes in the NHL for, say, five years or more? If we could bet on his playing more NHL games in his career than Jujhar Khaira has played up to this point in his career (218), would you put your money down?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
  • Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
  • Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?

OILERS DRAFTED FORWARDS CAREER NHL PTS-GAME

This is a list of all forwards drafted by Edmonton since 2010 who have played in the NHL for a significant period of time. None of the men drafted outside the first round posted .5 points per game. In fact, two men chosen inside the top five overall failed to reach that mark.

Players inevitably graduate to either a skill line (Hall, Nuge, Draisaitl, McDavid, Yamamoto) or a support line (everyone else), with a special “Europe exit ramp” built in just for the Oilers.

Of all the men who have delivered less than .5 points per game above, who would be your choice to emerge as a legit offensive player? I’ll pick Puljujarvi.

AHL numbers

Using only players drafted outside the first round, and combining the first two AHL seasons, how many forwards performed better than Benson? None.

The last player to be drafted outside the first round by Edmonton who averaged more than .5 points per game in his NHL career was Mike Comrie (.619) who was chosen in 1999.

I think Benson’s best comparable is Dillon Dube, although he delivered more offense (1.04 points per game) in his AHL time. Dube’s NHL points per game so far in his career? .300, or about what Tobias Rieder has been delivering his NHL career. I believe Dube (and Benson) will rise to .5 during their NHL careers although their final number (at career end) is unlikely to be that high.

THE PIPELINE

Benson’s emergence as a top nine forward is badly needed, both in terms of roster quality and cap value. The value contracts under $3 million for next season (McDavid will always be a value deal) will likely be Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Ennis, Josh Archibald, Matt Benning, plus Evan Bouchard and Benson. Need that pipeline.

NHLE

Anything above 30 points in junior or AHL is solid, Bouchard’s number for a defenseman is very strong. Slepyshev’s number (and Puljujarvi’s) makes him worth signing in my opinion, but expecting .5 points per game in the NHL is probably too hopeful based on his first 100 NHL games.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we hit the air with compelling guests and lots of news. I honestly thought yesterday would be a slog but there remains plenty of sports activity to discuss. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will join us to talk about his article on Peter Chiarelli and the summer business to come. Geoff Ulrich from Draft Kings will talk NFL in what looks like a massive week of loud noises in free agency and Corey Graham (Oil Kings pbp broadcaster) will talk about a team that is locked and loaded for a deep run and waiting for the opportunity to earn a championship. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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205 Responses to "Reason to Believe"

  1. dessert1111 says:

    Their quality being equal, would we draft a skilled centre or explosive winger with the first round pick?

  2. jtblack says:

    “Is he a lock for top-9 minutes in the NHL for, say, five years or more? If we could bet on his playing more NHL games in his career than Jujhar Khaira has played up to this point in his career (218), would you put your money down?”

    No way he is a Lock for Top 9. Skating skatimg skating. If he can somehow slightly improve maybe he can grab a 5 yr career. WE all know he has soft hands. But can he get to the play on Offense at the NHL Level? & maybe more importantly, can he defend well enough at the NHL level for coaches to Trust him?

    I love WHL draftees and am cheering like hell for Benson; but I just don’t know.

  3. Lowetide says:

    dessert1111:
    Their quality being equal, would we draft a skilled centre or explosive winger with the first round pick?

    I would always take the center, although in 2020 I was on the Hall train.

  4. Ben says:

    So they’ve turned out about one NHL F per year. How close is that to average draft success across the league?

    It would be interesting to look at particular draft+development systems that seem to select/produce certain player types—your reputed “goalie factories” or NAS with mobile d-men, for example.

    Further, if the GM thinks that mobile RDs (for example) have highest currency value as trade chips, why not choose more of them once BPA gets murky?

  5. dustrock says:

    Is it not “Riesen to Believe?”

  6. dustrock says:

    https://theathletic.com/1679146/2020/03/17/peter-chiarelli-wants-to-be-a-gm-again-has-he-learned-from-his-oilers-mistakes/

    Holy cow, this is a doozy. Chiarelli now claiming the Larsson deal was the only offer he had for Hall. His explanation was garbage at the time but this is even worse if it’s true.

    I wish I had the unshakable self-confidence guys like him have.

    • Ben says:

      That is the Dunning-Krugerest thing I have ever read.

      I must once again paraphrase from Bull Durham: “The world is made for those who are not cursed with self-awareness.”

    • Wilde says:

      What a league. Just a murderer’s row of serial rake-stepping mediocrities.

  7. frjohnk says:

    Just read “not as young as he used to be” Willis article on Chia wanting to be GM again of another team

    I feel sorry for that fanbase already

  8. Oil2Oilers says:

    If shut down D are to become a thing of the past for the Oilers a Larsson for Kerfoot trade might work.

    A Benson – Kerfoot – Slepyshev third line would likely out score it’s opposition. Likely not enough special teams upside for the current coach/GM but all three could fill in higher up the order on skilled lines for injury cover.

  9. Oil2Oilers says:

    frjohnk:
    Just read “not as young as he used to be” Willis article on Chia wanting to be GM again of another team

    I feel sorry for that fanbase already

    The other 30 fanbases would be in dare to dream mode though! But yes , I too would struggle to wish that upon anyone, even the Flames.

  10. Wilde says:

    Running through some defensive pairings, by player

    Bouchard:

    Lowe – Bouchard
    51.30 CF% with / / 57.59 CF% Bouchard away
    15 GF – 20 GA

    Kulevich – Bouchard
    58.72 CF% with / / 54.00 CF% Bouchard away
    5 GF – 1 GA

    Lagesson – Bouchard
    59.49 CF% with / / 52.90 CF% Bouchard away
    12 GF – 10 GA

    Jones:

    Lowe – Jones
    58.61 CF% with / / 60.98 CF% Jones away
    2 GF – 5 GA

    Lowe:

    Lowe – Bouchard
    51.30 CF% with / / 53.47 CF% Lowe away
    15 GF – 20 GA

    Lowe – Jones
    56.37 CF% with / / 51.82 CF% Lowe away
    2 GF – 5 GA

    Lowe – Day
    51.97 CF% with / / 52.49 CF% Lowe away
    3 GF – 7 GA

    Lowe – Persson
    56.46 CF% with / / 51.77 CF% Lowe away
    8 GF – 7 GA

    Day:

    Lowe – Day
    51.97 CF% with / / 49.12 CF% Day away
    3 GF – 7 GA

    Samorukov – Day
    51.41 CF% with / / 48.95 CF% Day away
    8 GF – 8 GA

    Kulevich – Day
    50.17 CF% with / / 49.48 CF% Day away
    8 GF – 4 GA

    Manning – Day
    43.83 CF% with / / 50.50 CF% Day away
    1 GF – 7 GA

    that’s it for now

  11. Paulie says:

    Is not LD a value deal? Is not LD’s value deal better than CM? Ducks ….

  12. Sanderson says:

    Ahh, reading about Oiler prospects in the morning. With everything else going on, this is just the most pleasant and normal thing. Thank you for this blog Mr. Lowetide.

  13. New Improved Darkness says:

    I’ve been reading that the virus survives on soft surfaces like cardboard for about two days. If true, this makes Amazon Prime potentially the next Typhoid Mary, whereas Canada Post will surely be nominated in December 2020 to receive the all-new Package Distancing trophy.

    In related news, HOV lanes on sale today, two for a dollar.

  14. Munny says:

    Wow animated ads right in the middle of text, making the article almost impossible to read.

    • Munny says:

      And then they disappear after you scroll back up?

      I guess its comments first, article second for reading order.

  15. defmn says:

    Munny:
    Wow animated ads right in the middle of text, making the article almost impossible to read.

    DuckDuckGo is your friend.

  16. defmn says:

    How long now until we hear about a Lavoie signing?

  17. Munny says:

    defmn: DuckDuckGo is your friend.

    I use nothing but, unless its a complex search.

    And Firefox with all privacy controls

    No crossplatform tracking etc.

    My start page has been a blank tab for 15 years.

    This is coming from the webhost… search engines don’t determine where the ads are placed on the page only what the ads are.

    Only LT or the webhost can do that.

    For eg. his first blue box of text was split in two by an animated ad with another different animated ad directly below the last of the blue box.

  18. defmn says:

    Munny: I use nothing but unless its a complex search.

    And Firefox with all privacy controls

    No crossplatform tracking etc.

    My start page has been a blank tab for 15 years.

    This is coming from the webhost… search engines don’t determine where the ads are placed on the page only what the ads are.

    Only LT or the webhost can do that.

    Weird. I use Firefox and DuckDuckGo and haven’t seen a single ad on this site in years.

    • Munny says:

      I have a sneaking suspicion the webhost served me the mobile version in error first, which is now why it is corrected when I scroll back up.

  19. Harpers Hair says:

    Watching in real time as the Canadian dollar tanks. Will likely end the day below 70 cents.

    This will have a huge impact on the salary cap.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/currencies/CADUSD/

  20. Hitman77 says:

    Lowetide: I would always take the center, although in 2020 I was on the Hall train.

    I think I’d go for a center as well. Especially considering Nuge is UFA after next season and may be priced beyond what we can afford.

  21. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Watching in real time as the Canadian dollar tanks. Will likely end the day below 70 cents.

    This will have a huge impact on the salary cap.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/currencies/CADUSD/

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see 65 cents by the end of the month.

  22. Wilde says:

    Serious question – does anyone actually care about this Condors stuff right now? Should I save it?

  23. oilersfan says:

    Some very exciting news out of Regeneron this morning. They think they have an antibody that is sort of a 30 day vaccine ready they could test on a smaller population of at risk for covid 19 people as well as front line workers as early as June, and if it works they could start dosing hundreds of thousands of at risk people by August. This is not a vaccine since it only works for 30 days but could be given to those most at risk and the rest of the world could go back to normal for next years flu season.

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/regeneron-surges-after-identifying-coronavirus-antibodies

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/regeneron-aims-to-have-coronavirus-drug-ready-for-testing-early-summer.html

  24. N64 says:

    @ScottGottliebMD
    14h
    Disturbing new analysis from the modeling team at Imperial College shows initial #COVID19 epidemic lasting much longer in U.S. than other circulating models that show a peak in April/May; with a resurgence of infections when mitigation steps are lifted. https://imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    @ScottGottliebMD
    12h
    South Korea continues to show signs that its epidemic is abating, today reporting 74 new cases. Their massive testing effort aimed at identifying and isolating infected patients was no doubt a key part of their success in combatting virus, as were their early mitigation steps.

    @ScottGottliebMD
    4h
    Government leaders should launch major effort to get therapeutic to #COVID19. Where is sense of urgency we need? This isn’t ordinary moment. An antibody prophylaxis that protects healthcare workers, elderly, immunocompromised has lot of near term promise.

    Scott Gottlieb, MD
    4h
    Government leaders should launch major effort to get therapeutic to #COVID19. Where is sense of urgency we need? This isn’t ordinary moment. An antibody prophylaxis that protects healthcare workers, elderly, immunocompromised has lot of near term promise.

    Scott Gottlieb, MD Retweeted
    @SquawkCNBC
    4h
    “We are learning to treat this better,” says
    @ScottGottliebMD
    on #coronavirus #COVID19. “Regeneron does have the capacity to do this at scale.”

    Good profile on the Gottlieb:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/15/shadow-coronavirus-czar-scott-gottlieb-129563

    @NateSilver538
    2h
    Policymakers probably do need to focus on worst-case outcomes, at least for now. You can turn off interventions (e.g. re-open stuff), but you can’t implement them retroactively.

    Huge test, respirator and therapeutics build outs. That’s the end game to have a livable new normal long before vaccines arrive.

  25. Oil2Oilers says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    I’ve been reading that the virus survives on soft surfaces like cardboard for about two days. If true, this makes Amazon Prime potentially the next Typhoid Mary, whereas Canada Post will surely be nominated in December 2020 to receive the all-new Package Distancing trophy.

    In related news, HOV lanes on sale today, two for a dollar.

    Canada Post as savior! Also is this incredibly short post, by your standards, an act of social distancing in it’s own right? 😉

  26. Harpers Hair says:

    Just thought I would solicit some streaming options for those of us in self quarantine.

    Mrs Hair and I are about halfway through the 5 seasons of Bosch…a crime drama set in LA and Vegas on Prime.

    Highly recommended.

    • wolf8888 says:

      Great series HH. I finished and am waiting for a new season. Any other suggestions?

    • Rickety Cricket says:

      Good idea.

      Fleabag was hilarious and awkward. Would recommend. It is a drama/dark comedy.

      If anyone has not watched the Wire…. do it…. do it now.

      Avatar the Last Airbender is a fantastic cartoon for adults and kids. 10/10.

      Killing Eve is fun. Action/comedy.

      And a bonus movie: Persepolis. French Cartoon about a girl who grew up in revolutionary Iran. Based on an even better graphic novel.

      That is all I got for now.

    • Bill says:

      Harpers Hair,

      If you enjoyed the series, strongly suggest reading the books. Michael Connelly’s writing is phenomenal. His Bosch books are top notch.

    • Rickety Cricket says:

      Oh, also Luther is really good if you like a good crime drama.

    • Genjutsu says:

      The Boys on primrose worth a look if your into checking out a dark mirror Justice League.

  27. N64 says:

    tsn and sportsnet dreamed about 24 team playoffs today using pts%:

    2 pac bye + 2 cen byes: dallas vs chicago to play oilers

    4 wc byes: oilers vs chicago to play dallas

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Oilers have three main needs to be a real contender, in my opinion:

    – another legit top 6 winger
    – a legit 3C
    – a back-up goaltender (really a 1B with Mikko).

    Kailer Yamamoto has all but solidified himself as a legit top 6 winger going forward and that 2020-solidfiication is a boon going forward.

    If Tyler Benson (or Jesse Puljujarivi) could do the same, it would be another boon.

    Tyler Benson has the skill, the hands, the offensive IQ, the work ethic and grit (he is not a shrinking violet). I think the only thing holding him back is the much talked about skating.

    I have little doubt that Tyler will be a full time NHL player shortly – the question is if he tops out as a middle 6 guy or a legit top 6.

    Time will tell.

    ———-

    The other internal options for top 6 winger next season are:

    Tyler Ennis – not a long term solution and not ideal

    Andreas A. – after a full training camp with Tippett and his staff and being healthy maybe he does solidify himself as a legit top 6 guy with either Connor or Leon.

    ———

    Management probably can’t count on Benson or any internal option being a legit top 6 guy but there may not be enough cap to acquire externally (I think the main focus should be 3C).

    At some point in the next 12 months, we likely get to the point where we have enough defensive depth with kids pushing and proving ready where a D for F trade will be prudent.

  29. N64 says:

    Dr. Deena Hinshaw
    @CMOH_Alberta
    Another personal update. The results of my test have come back negative for COVID-19. This morning, I returned to work in person after self-isolating. I would like to thank all those who reached out and sent me your well wishes. #COVID19AB (1/3)
    It’s important to underline that no one is exempt from staying home when sick, even with mild symptoms. If you’re not feeling well, stay home. Self-isolate. Do not risk exposing Albertans if you’re sick. (2/3)
    Self-isolating is the right choice and the compassionate choice. We must do what we can to help one another. (3/3)

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wild card for the “legit offensive player” – Anton Slepyshev.

    He’s going to be an Oiler next year (I think) and, while the plan I’m sure is a bottom six role, this is a player that is going to come with offensive confidence after a massive 2nd half in the KHL – this will be a player with size, skill, speed and a shot that will be looking to prove himself in the best league in the world.

    Come back “home” Anton – I have a good feeling about this.

    ————-

    KHL originally “paused” for one week to re-schedule to a six team player but a couple of teams have pulled out of the Jargin Cup and now the league has extended their “pause” to April 10.

    I look forward to Slepy continuing in the KHL playoffs and then having his contract expire so he can sign.

    Lets do this!!!!!

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yup, value contracts are a key to building a true contender in the NHL under the current cap system – a main reason why trading away high draft picks and prospects can be very risky and damaging for longer term success.

    While it likely makes his 2nd contract a bit more expensive as he’ll be “more established”, having three years of Bouchard on his ELC, starting in his draft plus 3, is all but certain to be a massive value deal – I think bonuses can take him up to $1.6M per but still – if he’s hitting those bonsues……

    The other is Caleb Jones – this kid basically solidified himself as an every day NHLer and starting to show that there is a very reasonable chance he will be a legit top 4, the minute he signed his 2 year extension for barely above league minimum. Caleb Jones is an every day NHL d-man and he may be a legit 2LD by the time October comes but likely within a calendar year from now.

  32. Harpers Hair says:

    All non emergency dental work in BC cancelled after 15K dentists attended a conference in Vancouver and some have tested positive.

    • N64 says:

      March 5-7 Pacific Dental Conference

      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/pacific-dental-conference-attendees-exposed-covid19-1.5499437

      “Dr. David Ciriani, president of the Kamloops and District Dental Society, said the conference set records this year for attendance.”Traditionally, attendance there is probably about, oh, just about 90 per cent of the dentists in the province,” Ciriani said from his home, where he is now in self-isolation.

      The day before that Dental Conference opened the Comic Con in Seattle responded to cancellation by many featured exhibitors and public demands for refunds with a full steam ahead public letter and a no refund policy. The day after that Dental Conference the Comic Con was cancelled.

    • Munny says:

      Some dentists here have already closed their doors temporarily on a voluntary basis, except for emergency work.

  33. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    The other is Caleb Jones – this kid basically solidified himself as an every day NHLer and starting to show that there is a very reasonable chance he will be a legit top 4, the minute he signed his 2 year extension for barely above league minimum. Caleb Jones is an every day NHL d-man and he may be a legit 2LD by the time October comes but likely within a calendar year from now.

    I consider the Jones signing a bonus of having a HC & GM in synch with each other. Pretty sure Holland asked Tippett or Tippett went to Holland and told him to get him signed now because I have seen enough to know.

  34. Glovjuice says:

    N64:
    Dr. Deena Hinshaw
    @CMOH_Alberta
    Another personal update. The results of my test have come back negative for COVID-19. This morning, I returned to work in person after self-isolating. I would like to thank all those who reached out and sent me your well wishes. #COVID19AB (1/3)
    It’s important to underline that no one is exempt from staying home when sick, even with mild symptoms. If you’re not feeling well, stay home. Self-isolate. Do not risk exposing Albertans if you’re sick. (2/3)
    Self-isolating is the right choice and the compassionate choice. We must do what we can to help one another. (3/3)

    Based on the description of her symptoms (sore throat) she should not have been tested as per the protocol on Alberta.ca.

  35. Munny says:

    Wilde:
    Serious question – does anyone actually care about this Condors stuff right now? Should I save it?

    It might be better to get everything altogether in one full article (along with a breakdown of your own game-scoring methodology) and see if LT will post it as the Article-of-the-Day.

    Would be handy to have everything together in one spot, and things might format better in actual tables etc rather than in a comment post. And then you can analyze the data right there.

    Just a thought.

    You’ve put a lot of work into this and it is appreciated.

  36. Munny says:

    Glovjuice: Based on the description of her symptoms (sore throat) she should not have been tested as per the protocol on Alberta.ca.

    She was only tested at the request of the Cabinet so that she could be more available to the province if the results came back negative.

    It is what Trudeau should have done.

  37. Munny says:

    wolf8888:
    Great series HH. I finished and am waiting for a new season. Any other suggestions?

    The first season of Westworld is just about the best season of television I have ever seen.

    In the world of miniseries, Chernobyl is very well done.

  38. fries n gravy says:

    This virus is a big “reset” button. So many entrenched positions up for re-evaluation. Who knows, maybe Slepy & JP are less unrealistic options than they were a month ago?

  39. Pouzar says:

    N64: @ScottGottliebMD
    12h
    South Korea continues to show signs that its epidemic is abating, today reporting 74 new cases. Their massive testing effort aimed at identifying and isolating infected patients was no doubt a key part of their success in combatting virus, as were their early mitigation steps.

    Zinc and chloroquine treatment also say hello.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&t=40s

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIymfznD7YA

    • N64 says:

      Pouzar: chloroquine

      Yes. Part of the first wave used in Wuhan and elsewhere in combination with a number of others.

      • Ryan says:

        I’ve heard Chloroquin was on a 6-month backorder before the Covid 19 Pandemic.

        • N64 says:

          It wasn’t a first line item so not a lot it and needs to ramp up. But it’s only one piece of the puzzle. Chinese tried a lot of stuff and some helped more than others. But we still need things that increase hospital capacity by orders of magnitude and that includes tests, respirators and treatments. if efficiacy, scale and safety work out, the antibody approach (e.g. regeneron) is an interesting direct shot short term approach.

  40. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just thought I would solicit some streaming options for those of us in self quarantine.

    Mrs Hair and I are about halfway through the 5 seasons of Bosch…a crime drama set in LA and Vegas on Prime.

    Highly recommended.

    I am ploughing through ‘Philosophy of Physics – Space and Time’ by Tim Maudlin at the moment.

    About 35 pages in on a 169 page book. I figure I am good until September. 😉

    • Harpers Hair says:

      Oh my…that may be above my pay grade.

    • Munny says:

      I took that course at University waay back in the day. Hardest course I have ever taken.

      I was also the only undergrad in the class and the first UG to be allowed in 10 years so it was probably above my pay grade too.

  41. Harpers Hair says:

    Another query for the community if you don’t mind.

    Switched last week to Shaw Blue Curve internet to get 600 mps service but now my wifi is shit.

    Wondering if others have experienced this and what the remedies may be.

    I’ve checked out reviews of Shaw’s Blue Curve Pod wifi extenders and they have been generally very negative.

    Are there other good options?

  42. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Oh my…that may be above my pay grade.

    5-10 pages a day is all my poor little pea brain can digest. Natural philosophy is not really my field but incredibly interesting.

    • Harpers Hair says:

      Checked it out on Amazon..looks like a great read. May have to go down that rabbit hole.

  43. Harpers Hair says:

    BC cancels K-12 classes.

  44. Oil2Oilers says:

    For the last two summers the top of my to do list for the Oilers GM was the same;

    Get rid of at least one of the two boat anchor contacts, Lucic and Russell.

    Fortunately Holland achieved this and I can start a new list. I will probably change my mind a little as the summer goes on but for now:

    1. Sign Bear long term, 7 years 30M for 4.285M AAV.
    2. Move on from Kris Russell
    3. Find a 3C that can play with skill, trading a D might be required
    4. Upgrade 1B goalie from Smith (sadly this seems unlikely)

    Basically my priorities are very similar to OP’s above sign 3C, upgrade goalie depth and hope for an internal solution to fill out top 6 beyond the fabulous four. Though it is not ideal suffering through another year of the Neal contract seems to be prudent.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    How long now until we hear about a Lavoie signing?

    If this was a normal course off-season, it would likely be shortly after Chicoutimi is done for the year.

    I’d guess it doesn’t happen until after the CHL is officially cancelled for the year (I don’t think it has been, has it).

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: If this was a normal course off-season, it would likely be shortly after Chicoutimi is done for the year.

    I’d guess it doesn’t happen until after the CHL is officially cancelled for the year (I don’t think it has been, has it).

    The QMJHL has just cancelled the remainder of the season.

  47. leadfarmer says:

    N64:
    tsn and sportsnet dreamed about 24 team playoffs today using pts%:

    2 pac bye + 2 cen byes: dallas vs chicago to play oilers

    4 wc byes: oilers vs chicago to play dallas

    They can keep dreaming. This isn’t going to get better any time soon

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: The QMJHL has just cancelled the remainder of the season.

    Yes, I was just coming back on to post that i just saw that – thanks.

  49. Reja says:

    leadfarmer: They can keep dreaming.This isn’t going to get better any time soon

    They’re trying to justify their jobs for a few more days anyhow.

  50. defmn says:

    Well, that’s it. They closed all the pools and whirlpools in the complex where we have been staying here in Palm Springs so we are headed home first dawn tomorrow morning. We have basically been in self-isolation here for over a week so another two once we get to Calgary shouldn’t be a problem other than that we cleaned out our freezer before heading down here since we were planning to be away for 6 weeks.

    Has anybody tried the delivery service from any of the grocery stores in Calgary to see how well they work? Recommendations?

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Watching in real time as the Canadian dollar tanks. Will likely end the day below 70 cents.

    This will have a huge impact on the salary cap.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/currencies/CADUSD/

    but great for the energy industry – one small nugget to hold on to.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hitman77: I think I’d go for a center as well. Especially considering Nuge is UFA after next season and may be priced beyond what we can afford.

    Isn’t Nuge a left winger now though?

  53. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: but great for the energy industry – one small nugget to hold on to.

    Not really.

    The dollar is dropping in relation to the fall in the price of oil…as it always has.

    • N64 says:

      Yep. At least some operational production costs are based on the C$. Whereas US shale producers.

    • Munny says:

      Then technically you should be referring to it against a basket of currencies. Because some of what you are seeing is USD strength.

      #flighttosafety

  54. Munny says:

    defmn: 5-10 pages a day is all my poor little pea brain can digest. Natural philosophy is not really my field but incredibly interesting.

    Harpers Hair:
    Checked it out on Amazon..looks like a great read. May have to go down that rabbit hole.

    Harpers Hair:
    Checked it out on Amazon..looks like a great read. May have to go down that rabbit hole.

    When you guys are done with that one pick up a copy of Godel, Escher and Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas Hofstadter.

    Oughta occupy you for a month or two lol.

    • N64 says:

      Was going to mention that one. Now was I moving back and forth over those pages like in in a fugue or a fog?

  55. Wilde says:

    Okay. I’ve just been posting stats that I find interesting as they’re vetted and finalised, but I think that breaks it up too much and takes a surprising amount of time. Obviously I’ll be using the old blog or something to publish a central post with everything, but maybe I should hold stuff until entire sections are done instead of updating sporadically as I go.

    • jp says:

      The pieces are interesting as you’re going through them, but if it’s taking significant extra time to post them here vs waiting it doesn’t make sense. The central post or posts will definitely be the main resource.

      Much appreciated in any format!

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    Well, that’s it. They closed all the pools and whirlpools in the complex where we have been staying here in Palm Springs so we are headed home first dawn tomorrow morning. We have basically been in self-isolation here for over a week so another two once we get to Calgary shouldn’t be a problem other than that we cleaned out our freezer before heading down here since we were planning to be away for 6 weeks.

    Has anybody tried the delivery service from any of the grocery stores in Calgary to see how well they work? Recommendations?

    What part of Calgary do you live in?

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Not really.

    The dollar is dropping in relation to the fall in the price of oil…as it always has.

    Well, yes, but the dollar and the oil price don’t always go in lock-step.

    The statement in isolation is correct – a decreasing Canadian dollar is a benefit to the Canadian energy industry.

    When oil stays the same price and, interest rate changes, for example, lead to a reduction in the Canadian dollar, that helps the energy industry.

  58. Munny says:

    Well Alberta has finally closed down bars, larger restaurants. clubs casinos etc.

    Wish they had done so before last weekend’s festivities but at least they acted before any St. Patty’s tomfoolery tonight.

    The creation of a Golden Hour (or two) for seniors and high-risk people at the grocery stores is a fantastic idea from the Government. Hopefully the chains enact this ASAP.

    • N64 says:

      “Seating in restaurants and coffee shops will be limited to a maximum of 50 people or 50-per-cent capacity, whichever is lower”

  59. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Well, yes, but the dollar and the oil price don’t always go in lock-step.

    The statement in isolation is correct – a decreasing Canadian dollar is a benefit to the Canadian energy industry.

    When oil stays the same price and, interest rate changes, for example, lead to a reduction in the Canadian dollar, that helps the energy industry.

    But that’s not what’s happening.

    Look at the chart here:

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price

    It is almost identical to the Canadian dollar drop.

    Also, Goldman Sachs is expecting world oil prices to fall to $20/barrel in the second quarter which means Alberta oil will be selling for a fraction of that.

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-price-forecast-fall-barrel-july-goldman-sachs-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-3-1029005618

    • Munny says:

      I think WTI printed a $26 handle at close today. Could be at $20 by the end of the week.

  60. Rickety Cricket says:

    I am glad Hair and OP are still finding inane things to argue about. It comforts me in this time of uncertainty.

    I love you both.

  61. defmn says:

    Munny:
    wolf8888 says:
    March 17, 2020 at 2:24 pm

    I believe Spud.ca is good DEFMN. They are very good in Vancouver.

    (Quote) (Reply)
    Reply
    N64 says:
    March 17, 2020 at 2:34 pm

    Superstore parking lot pickup is another option.

    (Quote) (Reply)
    Reply
    Munny says:
    March 17, 2020 at 3:13 pm

    You can shop with an app at Wal-Mart and pick up or send a cab to pick up.

    (Quote) (Reply)

    Much appreciated.

  62. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: What part of Calgary do you live in?

    Downtown.

  63. Munny says:

    23 new cases.

    This pretty much puts us back on the typical track of increases. (33% increase daily)

    Six cases alone from the Dental Conference HH mentions above.

    • N64 says:

      Six unconnected cases in AB so far vs. 2 at Saturday, so local circulation.

      RE: That BC dental conference I’m seeing 3 in SK and 6 in AB. Google may not be helping me but is 4 really the total confirmed in BC from a Vancouver conference? That’s concerning. Is that a delay in tracing or 2nd tests to confirm or really good luck or really bad luck? One account states 90% of BC’s dentist were there?

  64. Munny says:

    I have a sister (well 4 really) who works at ATB.

    She says they are seeing people empty their accounts.

  65. defmn says:

    Munny:
    I have a sister (well 4 really) who works at ATB.

    She says they are seeing people empty their accounts.

    Because there is no toilet paper available? 😉

    • Munny says:

      Lol… judging by the scenes in Italy, toilet paper supplies will rebound nicely.

      Meat and dairy will remain an tissue issue

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rickety Cricket:
    Oh, also Luther is really good if you like a good crime drama.

    Luther is so, so good.

    • Munny says:

      I had high hopes for Luther with all the subtle (and not-so-subtle) references to Alice in Wonderland in the first season.

      It looked like it lost its way after that and I discontinued watching. Did they ever return to their sources?

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Oilers have three main needs to be a real contender, in my opinion:

    – another legit top 6 winger
    – a legit 3C
    – a back-up goaltender (really a 1B with Mikko).

    Kailer Yamamoto has all but solidified himself as a legit top 6 winger going forward and that 2020-solidfiication is a boon going forward.

    If Tyler Benson (or Jesse Puljujarivi) could do the same, it would be another boon.

    Tyler Benson has the skill, the hands, the offensive IQ, the work ethic and grit (he is not a shrinking violet). I think the only thing holding him back is the much talked about skating.

    I have little doubt that Tyler will be a full time NHL player shortly – the question is if he tops out as a middle 6 guy or a legit top 6.

    Time will tell.

    ———-

    The other internal options for top 6 winger next season are:

    Tyler Ennis – not a long term solution and not ideal

    Andreas A. – after a full training camp with Tippett and his staff and being healthy maybe he does solidify himself as a legit top 6 guy with either Connor or Leon.

    ———

    Management probably can’t count on Benson or any internal option being a legit top 6 guy but there may not be enough cap to acquire externally (I think the main focus should be 3C).

    At some point in the next 12 months, we likely get to the point where we have enough defensive depth with kids pushing and proving ready where a D for F trade will be prudent.

    Agreed all points.

    Good post.

  68. Munny says:

    I’m surprised no one has mentioned the biggest news of the day…

    Tom Brady is leaving the Pats!

    (and with the 9ers trading Deforest Buckner yesterday, I have to admit, I gotta wonder)

  69. defmn says:

    Munny:
    Lol… judging by the scenes in Italy, toilet paper supplies will rebound nicely.

    Meat and dairy will remain an tissue issue

    Not happy to hear that. I need steady supply of milk for my morning cappuccino.

    Yes, I am old and I like my mornings the way I like my mornings.

    • Munny says:

      Cream has not been creamed at the shops like Milk has.

      I’ve been using heavy cream in my coffee since going Keto.

      And… it make coffee frickin delicious. Give it a try.

      I’d bet money that part of Timmy’s success is related to their use of 17 percent over the more common Half and half.

  70. Melvis says:

    I’m surprised no one has mentioned Indigenous People in any substansive way – to my knowledge. Freeland also messed up with the Emergency powers comment…which wouldn’t be employed without consultation with the “provinces and territories.”

    Prior to this, SK. chiefs in the northern part of the province were lamenting an epidemic of meth addiction, up to 50% in the case of one reserve according to the chief, who had actually done a physical head count. So there’s that. And SIGA is keeping their casinos’ open.

    The hospital in Prince Albert is second rate and can’t the local pop. A mass evac of reserves? Jeez.

    • Munny says:

      Kenney’s press conference a couple of days ago mentioned he has been in direct consultation with those communities here. He didn’t get into specifics.

      Today’s presser was more about assistance for charities and the homeless.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: But that’s not what’s happening.

    Look at the chart here:

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price

    It is almost identical to the Canadian dollar drop.

    Also, Goldman Sachs is expecting world oil prices to fall to $20/barrel in the second quarter which means Alberta oil will be selling for a fraction of that.

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-price-forecast-fall-barrel-july-goldman-sachs-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-3-1029005618

    I didn’t say that was happening.

    All I said was that a lower Canadian dollar is a good thing for the Canadian energy industry – you decided to take a simple statement to another place and argue against it.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Downtown.

    I’m in Marda Loop so not far (usually work downtown but going remote now).

    If you want/need me to do a grocery shop for you, just let me know and we’ll figure it out.

    Shit, I’m at 2 groceries almost every day of the week (normal course, not pandemic related).

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Luther is so, so good.

    But John Luther is sick……

  74. defmn says:

    Munny:
    Cream has not been creamed at the shops like Milk has.

    I’ve been using heavy cream in my coffee since going Keto.

    And… it make coffee frickin delicious.Give it a try.

    I’d bet money that part of Timmy’s success is related to their use of 17 percent over the more common Half and half.

    When I turned 50 my wife harassed me into going for a physical since I had never had one. Of course I was told my cholesterol was a little high so my solution was to give up coffee. Why coffee? Because I didn’t really drink coffee so much as coffee flavoured cream.

    For 15 years I never drank coffee but when I turned 65 a few years ago I bought myself a Breville XL870 Espresso Machine. One of the best purchases I have ever made in my life. It turns 2% into a delightful creamy mixture that I highly recommend with a triple shot of dark roast.

    I can’t drink that swill they sell at Timmy’s. Sorry.

    • Munny says:

      defmn: I can’t drink that swill they sell at Timmy’s. Sorry.

      I try to avoid it too.

      The medical world views cream a little differently these days.

  75. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m in Marda Loop so not far (usually work downtown but going remote now).

    If you want/need me to do a grocery shop for you, just let me know and we’ll figure it out.

    Shit, I’m at 2 groceries almost every day of the week (normal course, not pandemic related).

    That is incredibly kind. Because we only moved to Calgary last summer we really don’t know anybody there. I think we will be OK. We can order food in for a day or two and then place an order from one of the grocery stores and get it delivered. But thanks. That was really nice of you to offer.

  76. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: I try to avoid it too.

    The medical world views cream a little differently these days.

    We live about 10 minutes from Morningstar Farm on Vancouver Island.

    They sell fresh whole milk in reusable glass bottles with the cream floating on top….oh my.

  77. Munny says:

    Any chance this NHL work stoppage sees an increase in retirements over the off-season?

    Did we see that after the lockout or is my memory deceiving me?

  78. jp says:

    dustrock: Is it not “Riesen to Believe?”

    I preferred that too!

  79. jp says:

    N64: tsn and sportsnet dreamed about 24 team playoffs today using pts%:
    2 pac bye + 2 cen byes: dallas vs chicago to play oilers
    4 wc byes: oilers vs chicago to play dallas

    leadfarmer: They can keep dreaming. This isn’t going to get better any time soon

    Has there been discussion of how late the NHL could conceivably re-convene? I agree it’s highly unlikely, but in say 3 months, possibly? Could the NHL play some games mid-June to mid-July, for instance?

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: That is incredibly kind. Because we only moved to Calgary last summer we really don’t know anybody there. I think we will be OK. We can order food in for a day or two and then place an order from one of the grocery stores and get it delivered. But thanks. That was really nice of you to offer.

    Cool – let me know if you change our mind though – not a big deal at all, happy to help if it helps.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Has there been discussion of how late the NHL could conceivably re-convene? I agree it’s highly unlikely, but in say 3 months, possibly? Could the NHL play some games mid-June to mid-July, for instance?

    The latest the cup has been awarded is July 24th – which has happened twice.

    The league has been pretty clear that they do not want an extension this year to effect next year materially – if they can give away the cup this year without delaying next season materially (and keeping the integrity of the game for how the structure the rest of this season).

    There also has to be enough of a break to, not only allow for the butyout periods, the draft, free agency, etc., but also for the players to recover – anything less than 8 full weeks is probably a non-starter for the players.

    Starting the season after late October, probably not workable either on the premise that they don’t want two seasons materially effected.

  82. Munny says:

    jp:
    Has there been discussion of how late the NHL could conceivably re-convene? I agree it’s highly unlikely, but in say 3 months, possibly? Could the NHL play some games mid-June to mid-July, for instance?

    The speculation on sports radio today was May 15… which is a date they will never make IMO.

  83. OilClog says:

    With multiple Brooklyn Nets now diagnosed with covid, most likely Lakers as well yet unannounced from them so far.. I have my doubts NBA comes back to finish, I think hockey ends up following suit.

  84. Harpers Hair says:

    A great article from Justin Bourne at the Athletic on ways the NHL might hold a playoff tournament.

    It would require an Olympic Village type of scenario with access to multiple sheets of ice.

    My first thought was Vancouver since they have two NHL sized arenas in Rogers and the Pacific Coliseum as well as facilities in Whistler which could be used as an Athletes village.

    https://theathletic.com/1678653/2020/03/16/bourne-among-postseason-options-a-quarantined-playoffs-seems-most-realistic/?source=twittered

    Thoughts?

  85. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    Is it not “Riesen to Believe?”

    That’s the fall item that lists the entire training camp roster with chances of making it by percentage per individual. You’ll see that again. 🙂

  86. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: That’s the fall item that lists the entire training camp roster with chances of making it by percentage per individual. You’ll see that again. 🙂

    Lowetide posters remember a headline “Reisen to Believe” back in the dark time of Lowe+MacT – when you were discussing Michael Reisen who was German, right? I don’t really remember too much about him, just the Lowetide play on words.

  87. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909: Lowetide posters remember a headline “Reisen to Believe” back in the dark time of Lowe+MacT – when you were discussing Michael Reisen who was German, right? I don’t really remember too much about him, just the Lowetide play on words.

    Swiss. He was called the “Swiss Miss” in some parts, but his career would have run its course in Edmonton before the blog began. Edmonton traded him in 2001, my blog started in 2004.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cole Caufield heading back to Wisconsin for next season – not turning pro quite yet.

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Cole Caufield heading back to Wisconsin for next season – not turning pro quite yet.

    This will become common as NHL teams cannot offer their signed NCAA prospects the chance to burn off the first year of their entry level contracts.

    I expect there will be a surge in NCAA players who won’t sign and will become UFAs at the end of their college careers.

    Also, the NCAA is considering extending college eligibility by a year since most athletes had their seasons come to an abrupt end.

  90. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Cool – let me know if you change our mind though – not a big deal at all, happy to help if it helps.

    Muchos gracias.

  91. Harpers Hair says:

    The Calgary Stampede has just laid off 80% of its work force…mostly part time and casual.

  92. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Just thought I would solicit some streaming options for those of us in self quarantine.

    Mrs Hair and I are about halfway through the 5 seasons of Bosch…a crime drama set in LA and Vegas on Prime.

    Highly recommended.

    With my cable subscription, on the FX Canada website, one can streams the entire six seasons of “The Americans”

    Relieve the eighties with Felicity as an evil ice b$tch to die for. And all your favourite eighties music.

  93. Harpers Hair says:

    AnnIe…get your gun.

    Steve Keeley
    @KeeleyFox29
    BREAKING:
    @phillypolice
    officers instructed to stop making arrests for following list of what are consider non-violent crimes. Here is the email sent to city police officers telling them to just obtain arrest warrants for now.
    @FOX29philly

    https://twitter.com/KeeleyFox29/status/1240084289770962944?s=20

  94. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: The latest the cup has been awarded is July 24th – which has happened twice.

    The league has been pretty clear that they do not want an extension this year to effect next year materially – if they can give away the cup this year without delaying next season materially (and keeping the integrity of the game for how the structure the rest of this season).

    There also has to be enough of a break to, not only allow for the butyout periods, the draft, free agency, etc., but also for the players to recover – anything less than 8 full weeks is probably a non-starter for the players.

    Starting the season after late October, probably not workable either on the premise that they don’t want two seasons materially effected.

    Munny: The speculation on sports radio today was May 15… which is a date they will never make IMO.

    Thanks, and yeah they definitely need time for an off season, FA, recovery.

    July 24th was in range of my last day guess but I hadn’t really though through the implications. You could run a playoffs in a month, but you can’t really expect the playoffs to begin with players not having stepped on the ice for 3 months (hence ~ May 15).

    I agree that May 15th is not realistic. June 15 could be plausible maybe, but that really isn’t enough time…

    I wasn’t holding out much hope for this season to resume, but this really brings home how unlikely it is.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    We have the 60 day no crowds decree from the CDC and what Bettman said yesterday is the current hope is that they start a mini-training camp 45 days in with play to commence at the end of that 60 day period.

    Of course, at this point, we really don’t have any idea if that is do-able.

  96. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Cole Caufield heading back to Wisconsin for next season – not turning pro quite yet.

    He had a good, not shocking good season. Seems like a lot of those USNDP players started off hot (seemed like that to me) and then cooled off this season.

    Hughes 1ov NHL 61-7-14-21
    Turcotte 5ov NCAA 29-9-17-26 (didn’t he start off really strong in Oct/Nov?)
    Zegras 9ov NCAA 33-11-25-36
    Boldy 12ov NCAA 34-9-17-26 (he started off really cold, no? nice recovery if so)
    Knight 13th NCAA 33 1.97 .931
    York 14th NCAA 30-5-11-16 (tied for 4th in team scoring)
    Caufeild 15ov NCAA 36-19-17-36
    Beecher 30th NCAA 31-9-7-16

    A bunch of really solid college season in there, but not many that clearly “should” turn pro. Lots of could turn pro/could stay in college from where it sit. Nothing wrong with that, but these guys were pretty hyped.

  97. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We have the 60 day no crowds decree from the CDC and what Bettman said yesterday is the current hope is that they start a mini-training camp 45 days in with play to commence at the end of that 60 day period.

    Of course, at this point, we really don’t have any idea if that is do-able.

    Yeah, if they have the capacity to test all the players, know they’re free and them keep them isolated together it’s conceivable. It’s more than a little unlikely but it sure would be nice.

  98. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: This will become common as NHL teams cannot offer their signed NCAA prospects the chance to burn off the first year of their entry level contracts.

    I expect there will be a surge in NCAA players who won’t sign and will become UFAs at the end of their college careers.

    Also, the NCAA is considering extending college eligibility by a year since most athletes had their seasons come to an abrupt end.

    I’m hoping the CIAU does the same.

  99. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    We have the 60 day no crowds decree from the CDC and what Bettman said yesterday is the current hope is that they start a mini-training camp 45 days in with play to commence at the end of that 60 day period.

    Of course, at this point, we really don’t have any idea if that is do-able.

    Yeah, I believe this is the reason why “May 15” was bandied around so much today, and what format would fit.

    I don’t see the BOG agreeing to a one site policy, even if they split the revenue. (But you never know…. desperate times require…)

    And if it is more than one site, they would need gathering bans lifted in every jurisdiction they play.

    And judging by China’s experience, this could easily be a 3 month long situation for us the public.

    No jurisdiction is going to want to lift restrictions early and take the risk of a quick second wave. A second wave is likely baked into the cake regardless, but TPTB would want proof of manageable numbers before taking away curve-flattening measures, I’d expect.

    • N64 says:

      Will be interesting how much testing, tracking, icu and therapeutics can be built up in 6 months to make wave 2 acceptable. Even that regeneron thing today was interesting if it can deliver. Enough antibodies (without vaccine) to give a month of protection at a time to the most vulnerable and to intervene early in infections.

  100. Munny says:

    jp: He had a good, not shocking good season. Seems like a lot of those USNDP players started off hot (seemed like that to me) and then cooled off this season.

    Hughes 1ov NHL 61-7-14-21
    Turcotte 5ov NCAA 29-9-17-26 (didn’t he start off really strong in Oct/Nov?)
    Zegras 9ov NCAA 33-11-25-36
    Boldy 12ov NCAA 34-9-17-26 (he started off really cold, no? nice recovery if so)
    Knight 13th NCAA 33 1.97 .931
    York 14th NCAA 30-5-11-16 (tied for 4th in team scoring)
    Caufeild 15ov NCAA 36-19-17-36
    Beecher 30th NCAA 31-9-7-16

    A bunch of really solid college season in there, but not many that clearly “should” turn pro. Lots of could turn pro/could stay in college from where it sit. Nothing wrong with that, but these guys were pretty hyped.

    This is why I don’t understand why some of the pundits have been nicking Broberg. The forwards drafted around him all had pretty solid seasons but no one really took a step forward from their draft year.

  101. defmn says:

    Munny: Yeah, I believe this is the reason why “May 15” was bandied around so much today, and what format would fit.

    I don’t see the BOG agreeing to a one site policy, even if they split the revenue. (But you never know…. desperate times require…)

    And if it is more than one site, they would need gathering bans lifted in every jurisdiction they play.

    And judging by China’s experience, this could easily be a 3 month long situation for us the public.

    No jurisdiction is going to want to lift restrictions early and take the risk of a quick second wave.A second wave is likely baked into the cake regardless, but TPTB would want proof of manageable numbers before taking away curve-flattening measures, I’d expect.

    I can’t see any way that they can play hockey in front of crowds. What once seemed like a weird idea will re-surface shortly imo which is that they play in a few locations before empty barns.

    Don’t forget that as much as the NHL relies on gate revenue they also have TV rights holders who have their own agenda of selling advertising. Pretty sure they don’t care if there is anybody in the stands with nations of captive audience sitting at home night after night.

    However they determine who should be in the playoff I could see them building something around one location for the EC and one for the WC. Private planes are available and neutral sites are easily arranged if you don’t need seating capacity.

    Once they test all the athletes and employees I can see that being a possibility. I cannot see them playing in front of paying customers though.

    • Munny says:

      I’m not sure they feel any obligation to rights holders. After all, the League is already being paid regardless (I think). There’s going to be some unique insurance provisions in the next TV contract to be sure.

      I also think the NHL is a bunch of chickenshits and will wait for the NBA to take the lead on the issue.

      But really we are all just kind of flailing around on this issue. Weird times and we have no idea how it might play out.

      I’m a greedy bastard so I’d take hockey whenever and however they can play it, even if it is just TV,

      And like JP implies below, it would be nice to have this particular iteration of the Oil measure themselves against playoff hockey.

  102. defmn says:

    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    ·
    35m
    There is word tonight that an Ottawa Senator player has tested positive for COVID-19. This would be the NHL’s first positive test. Initial word is symptoms are not serious. Team is expected make official announcement.

  103. jp says:

    defmn: I can’t see any way that they can play hockey in front of crowds. What once seemed like a weird idea will re-surface shortly imo which is that they play in a few locations before empty barns.

    Don’t forget that as much as the NHL relies on gate revenue they also have TV rights holders who have their own agenda of selling advertising. Pretty sure they don’t care if there is anybody in the stands with nations of captive audience sitting at home night after night.

    However they determine who should be in the playoff I could see them building something around one location for the EC and one for the WC. Private planes are available and neutral sites are easily arranged if you don’t need seating capacity.

    Once they test all the athletes and employees I can see that being a possibility. I cannot see them playing in front of paying customers though.

    Yeah I wasn’t even considering live audiences. And agreed, there would be a strong appetite/audience for any games that could be broadcast if they can make that happen (judging on myself!!) 🙂

    I don’t think it’s very likely, but it sure would be great to see this version of the Oilers play playoff games in 2020.

  104. Harpers Hair says:

    Canada and the US working on closing the land border.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/us-canada-suspend-travel/index.html

  105. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Canada and the US working on closing the land border.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/us-canada-suspend-travel/index.html

    Thanks for that. We are planning on being on the road by 5:30 tomorrow morning and making it to Pocatello Idaho tomorrow night.

    If everything goes according to plan we should be at the border by about 3 pm on Thursday.

  106. hunter1909 says:

    In case anyone is bored, the Flashman series of books by George MacDonald Fraser can provide a form of entertainment for a certain type of reader.

  107. who says:

    jp: Yeah I wasn’t even considering live audiences. And agreed, there would be a strong appetite/audience for any games that could be broadcast if they can make that happen (judging on myself!!) 🙂

    I don’t think it’s very likely, but it sure would be great to see this version of the Oilers play playoff games in 2020.

    I’m not sure why everyone is so anxious to see hockey playoffs this year?
    By the time this first wave of covid 19 passes most people in Canada will probably have started their summertime activities and won’t be paying a lot of attention to any NHL restart.
    Plus how good will the hockey possibly be if the players have been sitting around for 2 months?
    I think we should just start looking forward to next year. Hell, Oilers fans should be used to this.

  108. Munny says:

    I’ve just bought a bottle of Writer’s Tears and had my first ever sip.

    Figgered today was the day. Been waiting for St. Paddy’s to arrive since y’all first mentioned this damn demon liquor.

  109. Munny says:

    who: I’m not sure why everyone is so anxious to see hockey playoffs this year?

    Never before have so many Canadians craved distraction in a world suddenly so bereft.

  110. Material Elvis says:

    OilClog:
    With multiple Brooklyn Nets now diagnosed with covid, most likely Lakers as well yet unannounced from them so far.. I have my doubts NBA comes back to finish, I think hockey ends up following suit.

    That would actually benefit the NHL if the NBA cancelled — no arena competition and decreased risk of cross contamination. Players could play in front of limited crowds. I think there is a chance it could happen.

    • Munny says:

      If the NBA cancels, the NHL will follow suit because then they will have PR cover for doing so. Not to mention they will not want to be the League that is known for perpetuating spread.

      Except when it comes to the health of their stars, the NHL is risk-averse.

  111. jp says:

    who: I’m not sure why everyone is so anxious to see hockey playoffs this year?
    By the time this first wave of covid 19 passes most people in Canada will probably have started their summertime activities and won’t be paying a lot of attention to any NHL restart.
    Plus how good will the hockey possibly be if the players have been sitting around for 2 months?
    I think we should just start looking forward to next year. Hell,Oilers fans should be used to this.

    Hockey is my #1 sport/passtime. If the Oilers are on, particularly playoffs, I will watch. Maybe some will be distracted, but as Munny alludes to we may not yet be enjoying summertime activities in any case.

  112. BONE207 says:

    Hi Gang…
    In the lower mainland, BC this week for work. Restaurants to be closed on Wednesday. Grocery stores running out of food. Pools shut down. Imprisoned in the hotel. I dreamt I was a LT’s house last night. What’s with the porcelain figurines Lowetide?
    Maybe I caught something? Is this life after hockey?

  113. jp says:

    N64:
    Will be interesting how much testing, tracking, icu and therapeutics can be built up in 6 months to make wave 2 acceptable. Even that regeneron thing today was interesting if it can deliver. Enough antibodies (without vaccine) to give a month of protection at a time to the most vulnerable and to intervene early in infections.

    I think people being in relative quarantine for months will make wave 2 much more acceptable. Hopefully there are good therapeutics, but even without them this won’t go on forever.

    • N64 says:

      Relaxation will be progressive not all at once. First relaxation will be to get our working lives back and after all of this even that will be a relief and hope for the rest.
      People also underestimate what could be accomplished when we relax restrictions just from having a Singapore level or South Korea level of testing. Hospitals being able to keep more patients out of ICU and having more ICU capacity. These things can all add up to make the 2nd wave what we wanted the 1st wave to be. It isn’t just about waiting for a vaccine.

      • N64 says:

        Long Ars Technica piece

        The end describes why the Fall end game could work.

      • Munny says:

        Singapore just hit its highest daily count of new cases today (Tuesday) and is engaged in increasing restrictions in their second wave, not relaxing them.

        And their GDP estimates are expected to be downgraded even further as they have just locked ca. 290,000 workers out of their country (as of their Wednesday).

        Edit:
        Thirteen percent of their labour force has just disappeared. Correction… thirteen percent of their pre-Covid labour force has disappeared. I don’t have the numbers for their layoffs during Covid, which were substantial, but obviously they have just locked out an even bigger chunk of active participation to this date.

        They have less “working lives” now than they did during the initial wave.

  114. Ribs says:

    Any idea why that Medium article would get flagged from my Facebook timeline as spam? Was something not accurate in it?

  115. hunter1909 says:

    BONE207:
    Hi Gang…
    In the lower mainland, BC this week for work. Restaurants to be closed on Wednesday. Grocery stores running out of food. Pools shut down. Imprisoned in the hotel. I dreamt I was a LT’s house last night. What’s with the porcelain figurines Lowetide?
    Maybe I caught something? Is this life after hockey?

    Hope you get back to wherever you want to be soon. Sucks to be stranded anywhere.

    ps: How do you like the Oilers overachieving past your Death March™ expectations this season?

    • BONE207 says:

      Hunter…I like being able to still work. This job will make my month. Now about that Mexico trip…

      As for the Oilers, My prediction was pretty close…Ha.
      I’m glad I underestimated rather than over like most years.

  116. v4ance says:

    OilClog:
    With multiple Brooklyn Nets now diagnos

    defmn:
    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    ·
    35m
    There is word tonight that an Ottawa Senator player has tested positive for COVID-19. This would be the NHL’s first positive test. Initial word is symptoms are not serious. Team is expected make official announcement.

    The Athletic L.A. @TheAthleticLA

    “Multiple” Ottawa Senators players are now thought to be ill from COVID-19, according to @hailey_salvian and @mirtle, who write that L.A. is thought to be the location of infection.

    ***
    David Pagnotta @TheFourthPeriod

    Update: At Staples Center, there are visiting rooms for NBA teams and NHL teams. There is confusion on which rooms were used, but it appears the Sens & Nets either shared rooms or transportation.

    ***

    Arash Markazi @ArashMarkazi

    I was just told the Nets and Senators were in different visiting locker rooms but may have used the same bus.

    ***

    John Hoven | The Mayor@mayorNHL

    KD and several Brooklyn Nets players tested positive. They played the Lakers at Staples on 3/10. Ottawa played in LA on 3/11.

    ***

    Jeff Veillette @JeffVeillette

    “Kevin Durant gives the Senators a pandemic virus” is somehow still in the threshold of crazy stories you could’ve made up about the team a year ago and I would’ve believed you

    • Munny says:

      This does, however, highlight the difficulty of tracing community transmission.

      It’s not just about human-to-human contact but merely being in the same place within a few hours or even a couple of days of each other.

      Once it gets beyond travel, tracing becomes nearly impossible.

  117. Munny says:

    We are going to see The Fed become banker of last resort FOR THE ENTIRE WORLD before this is over. That’s right… other Central Banks are going to go under without 24/7 unlimited swap lines with The Fed.

    Think about this.

    This Pandemic crisis is nowhere near the level of, say, WWII.

    And we have The Fed, RIGHT NOW doing everything they can to prevent the financial world from collapsing. And it is still not enough. The swap lines will be deployed.

    Because of the world those Central Planners created.

    By the way, if you are anywhere near FDR’s or Nixon’s or Woodrow Wilson’s graves right now, please urinate on them for me. Thanks in advance.

    #bucketlist

    Okay fine. During the GFC, The Fed did the same for the first time in the history of the world for a short period. Except now, due to QEs and corporate leverage and zombie banks and all the rest from all the bubbles that came before, the funding gap is essentially double in only 12 years…

    ie. now 12 TRILLION dollars…

    Likely just a flesh wound. At least that’s what we will be telling lying to our grandchildren.

  118. hunter1909 says:

    BONE207:
    Hunter…I like being able to still work. This job will make my month. Now about that Mexico trip…

    As for the Oilers, My prediction was pretty close…Ha.
    I’m glad I underestimated rather than over like most years.

    Unlike many I’ve never complained about having to work. Hopefully you know how to save some of it which for levity sake I won’t bore everyone with the rationale behind this theory except it helps a lot to have Highland blood.

    Oilers are doing about what I hoped but didn’t honestly know was possible but Holland/Tippet are probably as good a pair of hands running an NHL team as there are in the league today so there’s no fundamental reason to worry(unlike the Lowe+MacT years and right up to Chiarelli which saw a Rose Bowl parade level of incompetence).

  119. Harpers Hair says:

    And there it is.

    Trump closes the Canada US border to non-essential travel.

    https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/covid-19-live-updates-coronavirus-canada-covid19#click=https://t.co/IobULrRdSS

  120. Harpers Hair says:

    The Canadian dollar now trading at a hair over 69 cents and dropping.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/currencies/CADUSD/

  121. Harpers Hair says:

    Utah hit with a 5.7 magnitude earthquake.

    https://abc7chicago.com/magnitude-57-earthquake-rocks-utah/6024425/

    Cue the locusts.

  122. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Utah hit with a 5.7 magnitude earthquake.

    https://abc7chicago.com/magnitude-57-earthquake-rocks-utah/6024425/

    Cue the locusts.

    Eastern Africia is being overwhelmed with locusts.

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